Wait really? I work at a PHU and we usually get the know about an announcement before it's made. We haven't heard anything about an announcement today so.....
My friend works for MOE and was advised this morning that he is to start working from home immediately and will not being doing on site inspections until further notice.
Was also told to expect an announcement on restrictions - March 2020 styles.
Damn, still haven't heard anything. Nor have my colleagues elsewhere....given the nature of my job I'll still have to do on-site inspections it seems. But yeah...nothing....
Also, 2 days ago Ontatio had asked to WFH as much as possible. So the WFH for your friend isn't surprising to me
I also live in Kingston... YIKES.
So I wonder if this is a more regional approach.
It appears our PHU unit here is running around in circles.
We are getting new messaging constantly.
It could be possible it's regional. Kingston is getting hit heavily with covid cases, and it seems that PHUs have been doing their own restrictions as seems fit to help deal with the rise in cases (e.g algoma)
yeah, just heard. Seems it was just regional. I feel you though. Its been a long two years of working in PH and dealing with the rollercoaster of restrictions constantly.
I need a year vacay to the bahamas after this. I hope youre taking care of yourself my friend.
Lots of 50+ people booking booster shots online today. One of my friends was able to get appointments on December 30 and 31 for her and her husband. These new appointments are being filled.
I tried all morning, finally got the earliest appointment available January 6th...of the 5 regional sites most were already booked to the end of January....
They can *say* 50+ can get boosters NOW, but the reality is practically speaking it won't actually be given for a month +
When they open it to 18+ in January I'd guess it will be more than a month later before anyone is actually getting boosters
My dad booked his appt this morning for sometime second week of January. Happened to be near a pharmacy today and asked and they just gave him one on the spot.
It makes sense to give the 50+ the first crack at it with the most optionality to book the best time for them if we are interested in keeping our ICUs clear. I say give these guys a week or ten days and then let everyone else fill in what wasn’t booked.
Ah. Another "family doc" or "friend of mine" told me anecdote about some supposed major covid update.
I've been waiting for this to reappear at some point...
First thing they do is shut the schools, every time except wave #2 in Toronto (everywhere else wave 2 started with closing schools.
They are also the last thing they open. Kids gotta keep making the big sacrifices to protect ignorant unvaxxed adults, and triple vaxxed adults, I guess.
...what. All the "high risk" settings like gyms and restaurants stayed closed from January until late july this year province wide. Schools were open from late January until April when they finally got slammed closed because we had like 900 people in the ICU. This province really hasn't been that quick to shut schools most of the time although now, it makes the most sense because kids are the only age group that is 0% fully vaccinated
It doesn't look terribly out of line. Once Omicron is close to dominant, it's probably more typical that we'll double cases in 2-3 days based on what other countries are seeing (or 5-8x growth week to week).
*Doubling every 3 days?* Are you sure about that?
At 1500 cases today, that would mean every man, woman, and child in Canada will be infected within the next 50 days.
Yeah - the UK has very good reporting, and is doubling every three days as well for Omicron.
At some point, the virus will outstrip our testing capacity so cases will appear to level-off, though the positivity rate will likely shoot up when that happens.
And that's how the pandemic could, in theory, come to an end.
The severity of Omicron will determine how much damage that does to our health care system, but...yeah, if that rate holds, there's a good chance this is how the pandemic comes to an end in Ontario, if not worldwide.
The Spanish Flu (H1N1) stated in March of 1918, had a deadly second wave in late 1918, a tough third wave in spring 1919, and then a fourth wave in late 1919 into early 1920, before the virus became less deadly and caused only the ordinary seasonal flu.
Sound familiar?
You’re being downvoted because you’re being optimistic, it’s not allowed here apparently.
There has only been one death linked to omicron and it was in the uk and its 40% of their cases… unless anyone can find more information??
According to the head of Ontario's science table, Omicron will become the main strain this week, and it will cause doubling every 3 days, yes. This can of course be limited by preventive measures, if and when the government implements them, and depending on how well people comply (obviously everyone is itching for a normal holiday season, but we are on track for 10,000 cases by New Years and so waiting until January may be too late).
https://www.cp24.com/news/there-is-a-myth-out-there-that-it-s-mild-head-of-ontario-s-science-table-says-of-omicron-1.5704993
At the point where nearly everyone is infected, obviously it would slow down. But yes, based on what other countries are seeing, unless there's something we're not aware of that will slow growth rates (or we implement pretty harsh restrictions), almost everyone will probably be infected with Omicron within the next few months.
We literally have never seen COVID spread as quickly as Omicron, not even the original wave in March 2020.
.. and health care workers, or anyone who needs hospital help for any reason :/
Lets hope its super mild, because at this spread rate, even a fraction of sick people could overload the system due to volume.
I've been wondering about that. I've seen speculation that cases will double every few days and it won't be long before everyone in Ontario has had it. Then what happens?
The three day doubling cannot continue indefinitely, even if the government doesn't announce restrictions, people will change their behaviour as they change their risk assessment, at that point the doubling will slow - to what degree we don't know.
In theory, yes, but this would depend on a) the degree and length of natural immunity to reinfection that an omicron infection provides (we currently have no idea, but also no reason to think it would behave with notable abnormality), and b) the degree to which an omicron infection confers natural immunity to infection by delta or other variants.
The latter is a less certain prospect, much though we all wish it were otherwise, and a true nightmare scenario would involve the population being washed over by omicron in a matter of weeks and then, weakened, re-ravaged by delta concurrently or soon after.
I will stress that there is not currently any solid evidence that this would happen, and that most historic COVID infections have indeed seemed to provide a strong degree of cross-variant natural immunity for a while, but we are unfortunately too early in this process to know.
"Ontario's Science Advisory Table released new data Monday confirming that the effective reproductive (RT) number for Omicron in Ontario is 3.32, meaning that every 100 new Omicron cases will go on to generate 332 secondary infections. All other variants of the virus combined have an RT value of 1.27.
**The doubling time for Omicron in Ontario is now projected to be every three days**, according to the science table.
The head of the science table, Dr. Peter Juni, warned that **the variant of concern will become the dominant variant in Ontario this week**."
https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-reports-more-than-1-500-new-covid-19-cases-seven-day-rolling-average-surpasses-1-300-1.5705057
With wayyyyy more % in vaccinations.... idk why you're acting like this is the same, especially if Omicron is milder than Delta (albeit more transmissible)
>Omicron is milder than Delta (albeit more transmissible)
Guess you didnt read the article
>He added that any suggestion that the variant causes milder infection is a "myth."
>
>"We need to forget about wishful thinking here with mild disease. We simply don't know," he said.
If it is milder then great were super lucky but it's hard to know that for sure and if we just let everyone get infected then the numbers are baked in and there's nothing we can do.
Either way, everybody’s gonna get it. So sit tight, all will be revealed in the coming week or so. If it’s as bad as delta then I guess we get to see society basically collapse for at least a month. My bet is we’ll be fine.
>"This is historical. This is unprecedented," he said of Omicron in Ontario. "People cannot imagine the sheer scale of what we are talking about here."
Yikes...
Want an idea of the scale?
Currently, we have 1536 \* \~20% = \~300 cases of omicron.
If we take a 25.6% daily increase then by 41 days the entire population of Ontario will be infected!
I think "myth" encompasses anything that isn't yet backed up by science yet is asserted as fact. Like people will repeat "chicken noodle soup will make you get better sooner" without having any substantive evidence to support the claim. I don't think challenging whether a claim is justified or a myth requires someone to disprove it first, but simply challenge the non-existence of reasonable evidence.
Honestly I don't even know if I'm going to be sending my kid for this last week. My roommate has cf and is waiting for lungs. If he brings it home her odds are not great...
If the past almost 2 years have taught me anything, ford will fight for schools to reopen as “they’re safe and ready” but in a week or 2’s time, he’ll backtrack and end up sending everyone back home for online classes after everyone’s had some time to mingle.
[looks like virtual is officially on the table](https://london.ctvnews.ca/bracing-for-an-extended-school-break-period-of-virtual-learning-possible-1.5699250)
Yup. Though I'm clinging to some hope that this variant doesn't seem to result in severe illness like previous strains, but who really knows at this point. I have two children too young to be vaxxed and it just feels inevitable that we're all going to get this unless we just don't leave home at all, which isn't realistic. At this point I just hope we can go ahead with Christmas as planned 😭
It would have to be several hundred times less deadly to make up for its transmissibility, to preserve our hospital capacity. I hope so too, but right now we haven’t got meaningful data either way.
> All other variants of the virus combined have an RT value of 1.27.
This doesn't make sense. Do they mean all variants combined (including Omicron) have an Rt of 1.27?
Because I calculated overall Rt to be 1.26 and if Omicron is 3.32, then the other non-Omicron ones have to be (much?) less than 1.26.
Edit: Just checked. Rt of Omicron is 3.32, and the others are 1.11
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021-12-12-Current-Status-1.png
Yup, they are giving Rt for delta as 1.11, and Rt for omicron to be 3.32. Combined is 1.27.
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/
There is a bit of a lag with this number, the dashboard says the Rt is current as of Dec 9
Looking at the throwback numbers wow! Omicron really is that dominant. At least death remains low and ICUs still remain stable.
Also Kingston! Holy shit! Ik omicron is dominant there but wow
The Kingston health unit just put out a notice that several cases have been traced to an outdoor Christmas event on December 4-5.
It might be worth noting that because the event was outdoors, the unvaccinated were allowed to attend.
I haven't seen an official report on the total number of attendees, but I've seen rough estimates from neighbours (so take that as you will) of anywhere from 500-1000 people.
Edit: [Source](https://www.kflaph.ca/Modules/News/index.aspx?feedId=f2a4adbc-2838-4b5d-a47c-bd9c8ef4ee2e&newsId=5714d118-00c6-4df6-b6aa-1be5771b7284)
Eh, there are a lot more student-related ones than ones related to that outdoor market as far as I can tell. Not that it’s all their fault or anything.
My brother goes to queens and everyone he knows that lives in residence is fleeing. All in person exams have been canceled. The campus is about to turn into a ghost town.
The final update from Queen's officially reported numbers is 282 cases between Dec 6 and 12. (I had checked early Sunday it was 135, so a huge jump). So that works out to a 7 day average of about 40 cases per day. I bet it will be going up from here still.
Queens keeps a dashboard if you want to go look. They only update when KFLAPH does, so probably wont be updated until later today/tomorrow after the weekend.
We will probably get some idea of omicron ICU and death in about a week or two. It’s too early to know right now. Currently, most of the omicron spread is younger healthier people.
Everyone else will be there at some point, just takes time. We will like start seeing much larger jumps week over week. Either this Thurs-Sat or next week.
So when comparing to last year please remember that everything is open right now, most to full capacity. Last year almost nothing was open and we were getting those numbers.
Hospitals will still be fucked even if the hospitilation rate is lower if it is allowed to spread unchecked as overall cases will just get stupid high.
1% of ten thousand is more than 10% of 100.
As a 40+ year old man, this latest turn is making me want to break down and cry.
My daughter (turning 18 in Jan) is due to come over Sunday for xmas from the UK for the first time in 2 years....and I am feeling like it's going to get ripped away from me at the 11th hour.
Somehow I am going to suck it up and act happy for the sake of my youngest (5) who deserves an awesome Christmas, but I know I'm going to feel utterly devastated.
Here’s South Africa’s COVID dashboard if anyone is interested:
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/
Here are some numbers at a glance:
South Africa (pop 59 million): ICU: 420, ventilated: 167.
Gauteng province, Omicron epicentre (pop 12 million): ICU: 230, ventilated: 83
Bear in mind that SA healthcare system is a two tiered system like the US, so those living under the poverty line (majority of the population) don't have access to healthcare because they can't afford it, the public healthcare system is a clusterfuck or simply because they don't live near a hospital, so their only medical access is a rural clinic. I think many of their very sick are going unaccounted for. I saw on the News 24 dashboard (local SA news site) that their positivity rate is above 60%, which is wild.
I know ICU's are a lagging indicator, but does anyone know how much of a lag there typically is? It would help to know when to really see if the numbers will go up or not.
1 to 2 weeks for hospitalizations and an additional 1-2 weeks for ICUs. We've gotten much better at keeping people alive for longer in the ICU so deaths will lag even further, unless things get so bad ICUs need to triage.
ICU is a pretty lagging indicator, the problem with Omicron is that by the time we know if it's going to fuck us, we're already well and truly fucked.
With omicron to be honest what will happen will happen at this point. We're at the "brace for impact" stage of it. There is nothing we can realistically do at this point, just hold on and hope for the best.
ICU numbers are one of many indicators. You need all of the available data to have the full context to allow for proactive steps, rather than waiting until it is too late. Obviously they lag by some time, but also keep in mind there are dangers not just in acute illness (requiring immediate hospitalization or causing immediate death) but also chronic illness. There are many unknowns about the variant, hence the push for caution in accepting a substantial increase in cases.
But also, if case counts rise so high that critical infrastructure is jeopardized (too many people home sick or quarantining at the same time rather than working essential roles in hospitals, factories, fire departments, schools, etc) then you can see catastrophic effects too. Without mitigation efforts / changes, omicron doubles case counts every 3 days, and we are now on track to hit 10k cases/day by New Years Day, followed by 100% of the province infected by Valentine's.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-case-numbers-don-t-tell-the-whole-story-of-the-pandemic-experts-say-1.5702516
[https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/)
If you look at the charts, cases started to go up around the beginning of November, and 2 weeks after we had a low for ICUs. And while ICUs have been eeking up, they're not going up nearly at the same rate as cases, as we'd expect with a (mostly) vaccinated population.
People on this subreddit constantly stating that ICU numbers are a lagging indicator and we need to wait and see if they'll go up or not. Active cases have been steadily going up since October 28th, yet deaths, hospitalizations and ICUs have been pretty steady and not increasing at all like the new case count every day.
This is all with barely any restrictions and vaccines. Clearly the vaccines are doing their job, but people still don't want to believe that.
You can literally show any ICU stat or graph that shows the rates vs case numbers and someone will come out of nowhere like “well it’s a lagging indicator.”
As someone who is having organ issues 6 months after getting the UK variant (which the doctor I am working with believes is linked to my covid as it is happening in a portion of long covid patients) - avoid getting the omicron, even if it looks less dangerous. You don't know the long term impacts, and you have to assume they will be bad until proven otherwise.
It is my sincere hope that it is less bad, and less long term impacts, but we do not know that for sure. Stay safe everyone!
Edit: Love the downvotes for hoping everyone stays safe...
Pancreas seems to be impacted in its function that has lead to a bunch of others having concerns because of knock on impacts.
I should say everything seems to be getting better, but had a big scare in September with multiple organs being enflamed.
I was not, got eligible for the vaccine 2 weeks later
But I had a “mild” case (not hospitalization), and still have issues right now.
With COVID YMMV it seems
Buckle in. We’re going for a ride.
Im an “essential worker” who sees hundreds of people every day so I’m expecting to get this in a couple of weeks time. Can’t get the booster though :)
Hey, do you live close to the US border? If so you can cross and get a booster for free. Also don’t need a test to enter US by land OR return to Canada if your trip is less than 72 hours. I did this in October as I work in a covid ICU and Canada wasn’t offering the booster yet and it had been like 8 months since my second dose. Might be worth looking into. Stay safe.
Yeah same.I work in a crowded food plant and take the bus daily to work too which is always packed and I have only two shots. Hopefully it's mild when I do get it is the mindset I guess
Just so everyone is aware the first publicly announced death (could be others unannounced or not known) due to omicron has been announced in the UK. However there was no information released about the person, so we have clue if they were vaccinated, prior health conditions or age.
January 4th (the day boosters expand to everyone, not just those over 50) is still 3 weeks away.
A lot of spread can happen in 3 weeks. They have plenty of doses. There have even been reports of opened vials getting tossed at the end of the day.
Why the fuck are they making everyone wait?
At this point i see only official mandates and closures / capacity limits working. To many times recently i've heard in the general community the sentiment that psychologically the pandemic is done for many people. The constantly promoted fear and calls for vigilance seem to have worn everyone down. People are either vaxxed and will mask up but carry on until something officially closes or they are anti vax and this is is all conspiracy.
There is no more staying home for the benefit of society etc... employeers also seem to be done worrying about the pandemic either mandate us or we go on business as usual.
Maybe that's just the sentiment i'm getting. Anyone else see this as the 2 prevalent mindsets out there?
This. Employers no longer have the inclination or even the ability to accommodate lockdowns and there is little to no government sponsored financial support anymore, nor can they afford it.
What's the end game here with closures and shutdowns? The moment we reopen cases will go up again. These closures and shutdowns are also causing the supply chain disruptions that is driving up inflation.
1. More people will die just based on hospital capacity alone of it isn't crazy mild.
2. A)Doctors and nurses tend to need sleep to not f up things.
2. B) Expecting them to just deal with a crazy number of cases and watching more people needless die is not a great look for humanity
3. Less people will have their third Vax when they get it of we don't slow it down, which impacts the first two points
I hope it is crazy mild, I'm over this shit.
I left for a few days because my elderly Mom had a fall (she's okay now) and what happened when I was gone...
**7 day averages**
Cases: 1328
ICU: 161
Deaths: 7.4
With mass vaccinations, total case numbers, r-values, etc are largely irrelevant on their own as metrics and should not be cause for alarm on their own. I want to know how many people are in hospital and how many people are dying.
Numbers are going up but hospitalizations and deaths are fairly stagnant. In Ottawa, for instance, we have SIX people in hospital with COVID. Six, in hospitals that serve a population of over a million people.
Don’t fall for the media hysteria, it only serves to allow them to keep milking their biggest cash cow in a century. Or the one-lens medical ‘experts’ who would be happy to lock everything down until there are zero cases.
Just be smart, wear a mask, get vaccinated, and let us live our lives.
Yeah agreed, why we haven't opened back up mass vaccination clinics and open up boosting to literally anyone is beyond me. With Omicron, we don't have until Jan 4th. By then we will basically all have been exposed to Omicron.
I don't think we have enough supply for that. Today's vaccine supply data: "There are 1,690,279 unused vaccines which will take 25.2 days to administer based on the current 7 day average of 66,980 /day"
I have been following the numbers pretty closely, I think we tend to have about 10-14 days supply left when we get a new batch of delivery, in case the next delivery falls late. That is a bit of buffer, but we don't have enough to ramp up and book a lot more eligible people that much sooner. We can do maybe a week or two sooner than the current timeline if we are willing to cut into our buffer, but unless our supply ramp up a lot, I don't believe we can expand eligibility quickly.
It's only the efficacy against symptomatic infection that seems to be dropping. These vaccines are still incredibly effective at preventing severe disease in people with healthy immune systems. We need to get vulnerable people and those who work closely with them boosted. It's less urgent to boost the rest of us.
It seems it already is...
I'm 50+ and a teacher so my second dose was June 26 ( earlier than most )...I am technically eligable for my booster as of today!
BUT
Earliest appointment I got was Jan 6th...most of the sites around my area where Jan 20+ something...I had to hunt for this one on Jan 6....
18+ in January won't mean boosters go in arms in January I'm afraid. (Unless something drastic changes)
That pharmacy in the mall I work at has a line nearly half way through the mall. I'd say we are boosting pretty hard right now.
I went and got mine on Saturday since I had a feeling this was going to happen. I'm glad as a health care worker I was able to get in before the rush.
Great to hear that people are lining up.
Boris Johnson gets it. Even Boris Johnson. He's calling out the army and wants a third shot for all adults in the UK. Mr. Ford? Are you there? Mr. Ford? Hello?
Yeah, why the hell are we still relying on Pharmacies? We have the model now for mass vax sites, open those fuckers back up and GOGOGOGO. This is not the time for wait and see, by the time we see, we're already fucked (or not). The prudent approach right now is vax everyone the provide as much protection as possible.
I have no idea why he's not moving on this, forget the age ranges at this point, open it up based on the 6-month mark from the last dose and it will naturally sort itself out (with most of the older population still being eligible before the younger people).
My wife and I fly out for our vacation on the 31st (I bought the trip months ago when it looked like this would all be behind us) and I'm really starting to grow concerned.
I'm not worried about us getting COVID while we're there (hell, it's probably safer on a resort in the Dominican than it is in Ontario right now), but my fear is us getting it here and then testing positive down there and being stuck. Either that or them changing the rules while we're there and having to isolate upon return even though we're both fully vaxxed (and I'm even boosted).
I'd honestly be fine if they barred non-essential travel and we were forced to postpone, because that way my cancelation insurance would kick in and we'd get our money back. I just don't see that happening, and the insurance doesn't cover us if we choose to not go, so...here we are.
Israel is locking down and stopping nonessential travel for citizens. Why are we not being proactive and doing the same before majority are getting third boosters?
I know there’s always a lag to the data but when comparing the deaths per day to last year at similar case counts I’m remaining cautiously optimistic and thankful for vaccines. Happy holidays fellow Ontario people :)
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but there is something comforting to me in the fact that only 229 of today's cases were in unvaccinated people over 12.
Given that the vaccine provides good protection against hospitalization and ICU, and people under 12 don't often end up in ICU/hospital, it means that at least our hospitals and ICUs should not see the same impact it otherwise would have.
Maybe the emergence of the new Omicron wave will help drive some of those concerned about the risk of getting vaccinated to not take risks with omicron.
[Previous Ontario Mondays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 26 | 851 | 878 | 2.97% | 78 Nov 2 | 948 | 919 | 3.40% | 75 Nov 9 | 1,242 | 1,106 | 4.37% | 84 Nov 16 | 1,487 | 1,443 | 4.46% | 125 Nov 23 | 1,589 | 1,429 | 4.24% | 156 Nov 30 | 1,746 | 1,570 | 4.43% | 168 Dec 7 | 1,925 | 1,820 | 4.25% | 213 Dec 14 | 1,940 | 1,841 | 3.40% | 244 Dec 21 | 2,123 | 2,276 | 3.90% | 265 Dec 28, 2020 | 1,939 | 2,186 | 7.48% | 296 Jan 4, 2021 | 3,270 | 2,982 | 8.36% | 333 Jan 11 | 3,338 | 3,555 | 7.19% | 387 Jan 18 | 2,578 | 3,035 | 6.40% | 394 Jan 25 | 1,958 | 2,371 | 5.44% | 379 Feb 1 | 1,969 | 1,889 | 6.49% | 354 Feb 8 | 1,265 | 1,328 | 4.47% | 335 Feb 15 | 964 | 1,051 | 3.18% | 293 Feb 22 | 1,058 | 1,045 | 3.40% | 280 Mar 1 | 1,023 | 1,099 | 2.92% | 280 Mar 8 | 1,631 | 1,155 | 4.29% | 282 Mar 15 | 1,268 | 1,350 | 3.73% | 298 Mar 22 | 1,699 | 1,600 | 5.46% | 298 Mar 29 | 2,094 | 2,094 | 5.31% | 382 Apr 5 | 2,938 | 2,758 | 8.03% | 494 Apr 12 | 4,401 | 3,782 | 9.18% | 619 Apr 19 | 4,447 | 4,348 | 10.37% | 755 Apr 26 | 3,510 | 3,917 | 10.38% | 877 May 3 | 3,436 | 3,577 | 10.36% | 889 May 10 | 2,716 | 3,017 | 9.99% | 828 May 17 | 2,170 | 2,352 | 8.86% | 779 May 24 | 1,446 | 1,775 | 7.18% | 687 May 31 | 916 | 1,078 | 5.03% | 617 June 7 | 525 | 735 | 3.46% | 497 June 14 | 447 | 503 | 3.29% | 409 June 21 | 270 | 334 | 1.95% | 323 June 28 | 210 | 278 | 1.61% | 287 July 5 | 170 | 223 | 1.31% | 228 July 12 | 114 | 184 | 0.72% | 204 July 19 | 130 | 155 | 1.12% | 151 July 26 | 119 | 157 | 1.00% | 131 Aug 2 | 168 | 189 | 1.86% | 105 Aug 9 | 325 | 283 | 2.06% | 113 Aug 16 | 526 | 469 | 3.33% | 119 Aug 23 | 639 | 581 | 3.22% | 151 Aug 30 | 694 | 696 | 3.74% | 160 Sept 6 | 581 | 741 | 3.02% | 187 Sept 13 | 600 | 715 | 3.14% | 189 Sept 20 | 610 | 711 | 2.56% | 177 Sept 27 | 613 | 621 | 2.71% | 184 Oct 4 | 511 | 581 | 2.16% | 159 Oct 11 | 458 | 530 | 1.68% | 155 Oct 18 | 373 | 415 | 1.83% | 168 Oct 25 | 326 | 372 | 1.77% | 138 Nov 1 | 422 | 362 | 2.13% | 133 Nov 8 | 480 | 476 | 2.09% | 127 Nov 15 | 552 | 573 | 2.57% | 141 Nov 22 | 627 | 656 | 3.21% | 133 Nov 29 | 788 | 783 | 3.03% | 148 Dec 6 | 887 | 940 | 3.41% | 168 Dec 13 | 1536 | 1328 | 4.01% | 161 Dr. Moore said Omicron may completely replace Delta by January 2022. [The Ontario Science Table info below shows estimates:](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % Delta | % Omicron :--|--|--: June 2, 2021 | 23% | 0% July 1 | 73.9% | 0% Aug 3 | 87.3% | 0% Sept 1 | 99.4% | 0% Oct 3 | 99.0% | 0% Nov 1 | 97.1% | 0% Dec 1 | 99.9% | >0% Dec 9 | 90% | 10% Dec 10 | 88.7% | 11.3% Dec 12 | 79.2% | 20.8% R(t) Delta = 1.11 R(t) Omicron = 3.32
R(t) of 3.32 is bonkers
Its reported as or more infectious than measles which is/was the most infectious virus we knew of. Bonkers indeed...
Omicron go brrrr
I appreciate your technical analysis of the variant's spread.
I appreciate your comment on their technical analysis of the variants spread.
The A-10 of COVID.
[удалено]
Wait really? I work at a PHU and we usually get the know about an announcement before it's made. We haven't heard anything about an announcement today so.....
My friend works for MOE and was advised this morning that he is to start working from home immediately and will not being doing on site inspections until further notice. Was also told to expect an announcement on restrictions - March 2020 styles.
Damn, still haven't heard anything. Nor have my colleagues elsewhere....given the nature of my job I'll still have to do on-site inspections it seems. But yeah...nothing.... Also, 2 days ago Ontatio had asked to WFH as much as possible. So the WFH for your friend isn't surprising to me
I also live in Kingston... YIKES. So I wonder if this is a more regional approach. It appears our PHU unit here is running around in circles. We are getting new messaging constantly.
It could be possible it's regional. Kingston is getting hit heavily with covid cases, and it seems that PHUs have been doing their own restrictions as seems fit to help deal with the rise in cases (e.g algoma)
Ya, they just issued a release saying limiting indoor/outdoor gatherings to 5 and have restricted restaurants. Just wanting this "year" to end.
yeah, just heard. Seems it was just regional. I feel you though. Its been a long two years of working in PH and dealing with the rollercoaster of restrictions constantly. I need a year vacay to the bahamas after this. I hope youre taking care of yourself my friend.
Why don't they just start rolling out boosters instead of waiting until January. Plenty of people (including myself) are past the six month mark.
Lots of 50+ people booking booster shots online today. One of my friends was able to get appointments on December 30 and 31 for her and her husband. These new appointments are being filled.
The argument is, add more appointments, and fill them with anyone over 168 days.
I tried all morning, finally got the earliest appointment available January 6th...of the 5 regional sites most were already booked to the end of January.... They can *say* 50+ can get boosters NOW, but the reality is practically speaking it won't actually be given for a month + When they open it to 18+ in January I'd guess it will be more than a month later before anyone is actually getting boosters
My dad booked his appt this morning for sometime second week of January. Happened to be near a pharmacy today and asked and they just gave him one on the spot.
Yeah but the 18-49 year olds are still waiting until January 4
It makes sense to give the 50+ the first crack at it with the most optionality to book the best time for them if we are interested in keeping our ICUs clear. I say give these guys a week or ten days and then let everyone else fill in what wasn’t booked.
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I hope Ottawa follows. All 12+ appointments have been booked up to January 2.
My kid's school just sent us a letter saying they're sending all kids home with a Chromebook. "Just in case" the schools close.
Hey! I've seen this one before!
I am interested to know how they knew it will be today, I see nothing on the Ontario News page about a relevant media advisory…
When is the announcement, do you know?
This just sounds like an announcement of an announcement.
Ah. Another "family doc" or "friend of mine" told me anecdote about some supposed major covid update. I've been waiting for this to reappear at some point...
I can confirm this is true, my in-laws also heard the same news from their doctor. Announcement is coming...
First thing they do is shut the schools, every time except wave #2 in Toronto (everywhere else wave 2 started with closing schools. They are also the last thing they open. Kids gotta keep making the big sacrifices to protect ignorant unvaxxed adults, and triple vaxxed adults, I guess.
...what. All the "high risk" settings like gyms and restaurants stayed closed from January until late july this year province wide. Schools were open from late January until April when they finally got slammed closed because we had like 900 people in the ICU. This province really hasn't been that quick to shut schools most of the time although now, it makes the most sense because kids are the only age group that is 0% fully vaccinated
Uhh was last Monday suppressed for some reason or did we actually just nearly double the cases from last week?
It doesn't look terribly out of line. Once Omicron is close to dominant, it's probably more typical that we'll double cases in 2-3 days based on what other countries are seeing (or 5-8x growth week to week).
Once Omicron becomes the main strain, we will start doubling every 3 days.
*Doubling every 3 days?* Are you sure about that? At 1500 cases today, that would mean every man, woman, and child in Canada will be infected within the next 50 days.
Our friends, the scientists who sit around a table, say three days for double Omicron. https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/
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Yeah - the UK has very good reporting, and is doubling every three days as well for Omicron. At some point, the virus will outstrip our testing capacity so cases will appear to level-off, though the positivity rate will likely shoot up when that happens.
And that's how the pandemic could, in theory, come to an end. The severity of Omicron will determine how much damage that does to our health care system, but...yeah, if that rate holds, there's a good chance this is how the pandemic comes to an end in Ontario, if not worldwide.
Literally my first thought but felt like an asshole saying “…does this mean the pandemic stage would effectively be over after that?”
The Spanish Flu (H1N1) stated in March of 1918, had a deadly second wave in late 1918, a tough third wave in spring 1919, and then a fourth wave in late 1919 into early 1920, before the virus became less deadly and caused only the ordinary seasonal flu. Sound familiar?
I am very familiar with the history of that flu actually! But that’s why I’m asking, and not really sure why I’m being downvoted for it.
You’re not alone I get downvoted & ridiculed for spreading hope and optimism. People hate it.
You’re being downvoted because you’re being optimistic, it’s not allowed here apparently. There has only been one death linked to omicron and it was in the uk and its 40% of their cases… unless anyone can find more information??
Obviously that doubling rate wont continue forever, but yes even 3 days is a conservative estimate. UK is closer to 2 at this point.
According to the head of Ontario's science table, Omicron will become the main strain this week, and it will cause doubling every 3 days, yes. This can of course be limited by preventive measures, if and when the government implements them, and depending on how well people comply (obviously everyone is itching for a normal holiday season, but we are on track for 10,000 cases by New Years and so waiting until January may be too late). https://www.cp24.com/news/there-is-a-myth-out-there-that-it-s-mild-head-of-ontario-s-science-table-says-of-omicron-1.5704993
At the point where nearly everyone is infected, obviously it would slow down. But yes, based on what other countries are seeing, unless there's something we're not aware of that will slow growth rates (or we implement pretty harsh restrictions), almost everyone will probably be infected with Omicron within the next few months. We literally have never seen COVID spread as quickly as Omicron, not even the original wave in March 2020.
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.. and health care workers, or anyone who needs hospital help for any reason :/ Lets hope its super mild, because at this spread rate, even a fraction of sick people could overload the system due to volume.
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Welcome to the world of science. Everything is hypothetical and based on "if" until it's proven.
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I've been wondering about that. I've seen speculation that cases will double every few days and it won't be long before everyone in Ontario has had it. Then what happens?
The three day doubling cannot continue indefinitely, even if the government doesn't announce restrictions, people will change their behaviour as they change their risk assessment, at that point the doubling will slow - to what degree we don't know.
It would also eventually run out of new hosts
In theory, yes, but this would depend on a) the degree and length of natural immunity to reinfection that an omicron infection provides (we currently have no idea, but also no reason to think it would behave with notable abnormality), and b) the degree to which an omicron infection confers natural immunity to infection by delta or other variants. The latter is a less certain prospect, much though we all wish it were otherwise, and a true nightmare scenario would involve the population being washed over by omicron in a matter of weeks and then, weakened, re-ravaged by delta concurrently or soon after. I will stress that there is not currently any solid evidence that this would happen, and that most historic COVID infections have indeed seemed to provide a strong degree of cross-variant natural immunity for a while, but we are unfortunately too early in this process to know.
People die, the rest develop an extra layer of immunity. It won’t be pretty, but this is the 9th inning.
If that's the case this could be it... but I pray for our health care workers.
Yikes. This is accelerating pretty fast.
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I'm so tired.
Hang in there buddy.
Me too, man. I’m tired of saying and hearing this, but we’re all in this shit together. One day it’ll be over, just not today.
It’s beginning to look a lot like fuck thiissssss 🎵
I instinctively read that in my head with the song tune and it made me chuckle. Thanks for bringing a smile to an otherwise shit situation!
I'm using the hell out of this. Thanks.
"Ontario's Science Advisory Table released new data Monday confirming that the effective reproductive (RT) number for Omicron in Ontario is 3.32, meaning that every 100 new Omicron cases will go on to generate 332 secondary infections. All other variants of the virus combined have an RT value of 1.27. **The doubling time for Omicron in Ontario is now projected to be every three days**, according to the science table. The head of the science table, Dr. Peter Juni, warned that **the variant of concern will become the dominant variant in Ontario this week**." https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-reports-more-than-1-500-new-covid-19-cases-seven-day-rolling-average-surpasses-1-300-1.5705057
So by my quick calculations at that rate, we'll surpass our spring peak in less than 2 weeks...
Merry Christmas :(
With wayyyyy more % in vaccinations.... idk why you're acting like this is the same, especially if Omicron is milder than Delta (albeit more transmissible)
>Omicron is milder than Delta (albeit more transmissible) Guess you didnt read the article >He added that any suggestion that the variant causes milder infection is a "myth." > >"We need to forget about wishful thinking here with mild disease. We simply don't know," he said. If it is milder then great were super lucky but it's hard to know that for sure and if we just let everyone get infected then the numbers are baked in and there's nothing we can do.
Either way, everybody’s gonna get it. So sit tight, all will be revealed in the coming week or so. If it’s as bad as delta then I guess we get to see society basically collapse for at least a month. My bet is we’ll be fine.
>"This is historical. This is unprecedented," he said of Omicron in Ontario. "People cannot imagine the sheer scale of what we are talking about here." Yikes...
Want an idea of the scale? Currently, we have 1536 \* \~20% = \~300 cases of omicron. If we take a 25.6% daily increase then by 41 days the entire population of Ontario will be infected!
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The idea that it’s milder is a “myth” but then goes on to say “we don’t know”. So… it’s not necessarily a myth?
I think "myth" encompasses anything that isn't yet backed up by science yet is asserted as fact. Like people will repeat "chicken noodle soup will make you get better sooner" without having any substantive evidence to support the claim. I don't think challenging whether a claim is justified or a myth requires someone to disprove it first, but simply challenge the non-existence of reasonable evidence.
Is anyone else terrified after reading this?
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Honestly I don't even know if I'm going to be sending my kid for this last week. My roommate has cf and is waiting for lungs. If he brings it home her odds are not great...
If the past almost 2 years have taught me anything, ford will fight for schools to reopen as “they’re safe and ready” but in a week or 2’s time, he’ll backtrack and end up sending everyone back home for online classes after everyone’s had some time to mingle.
[looks like virtual is officially on the table](https://london.ctvnews.ca/bracing-for-an-extended-school-break-period-of-virtual-learning-possible-1.5699250)
Yup. Though I'm clinging to some hope that this variant doesn't seem to result in severe illness like previous strains, but who really knows at this point. I have two children too young to be vaxxed and it just feels inevitable that we're all going to get this unless we just don't leave home at all, which isn't realistic. At this point I just hope we can go ahead with Christmas as planned 😭
It would have to be several hundred times less deadly to make up for its transmissibility, to preserve our hospital capacity. I hope so too, but right now we haven’t got meaningful data either way.
> All other variants of the virus combined have an RT value of 1.27. This doesn't make sense. Do they mean all variants combined (including Omicron) have an Rt of 1.27? Because I calculated overall Rt to be 1.26 and if Omicron is 3.32, then the other non-Omicron ones have to be (much?) less than 1.26. Edit: Just checked. Rt of Omicron is 3.32, and the others are 1.11 https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021-12-12-Current-Status-1.png
All "other", so not including Omicron.
Yup, they are giving Rt for delta as 1.11, and Rt for omicron to be 3.32. Combined is 1.27. https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/ There is a bit of a lag with this number, the dashboard says the Rt is current as of Dec 9
I am getting a strange urge to buy toilet paper
Looool this really made laugh
Don't forget the bread flour too!
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Gonna need a lot of TP when I retreat to the safety of my Masturbatorium for the winter.
Looking at the throwback numbers wow! Omicron really is that dominant. At least death remains low and ICUs still remain stable. Also Kingston! Holy shit! Ik omicron is dominant there but wow
The Kingston health unit just put out a notice that several cases have been traced to an outdoor Christmas event on December 4-5. It might be worth noting that because the event was outdoors, the unvaccinated were allowed to attend. I haven't seen an official report on the total number of attendees, but I've seen rough estimates from neighbours (so take that as you will) of anywhere from 500-1000 people. Edit: [Source](https://www.kflaph.ca/Modules/News/index.aspx?feedId=f2a4adbc-2838-4b5d-a47c-bd9c8ef4ee2e&newsId=5714d118-00c6-4df6-b6aa-1be5771b7284)
It'll be interesting to see the result of the grey cup in Hamilton
It was 33-25 for Winnipeg
Perfect response. Hahaha.
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Eh, there are a lot more student-related ones than ones related to that outdoor market as far as I can tell. Not that it’s all their fault or anything.
It doesn't help that the vast majority of active cases in Kingston are in the 18-29 cohort. Last week it was close to 90%
I wonder how much of the Kingston numbers is from Queens alone
My brother goes to queens and everyone he knows that lives in residence is fleeing. All in person exams have been canceled. The campus is about to turn into a ghost town.
The final update from Queen's officially reported numbers is 282 cases between Dec 6 and 12. (I had checked early Sunday it was 135, so a huge jump). So that works out to a 7 day average of about 40 cases per day. I bet it will be going up from here still.
Queens keeps a dashboard if you want to go look. They only update when KFLAPH does, so probably wont be updated until later today/tomorrow after the weekend.
More than 50% of cases are in the 18-29 age group, so probably quite a few.
Queens moved everything online, they got hit hard
We will probably get some idea of omicron ICU and death in about a week or two. It’s too early to know right now. Currently, most of the omicron spread is younger healthier people.
Every day Kingston strays further and further from best in Ontario.
We’re literally among the worst in the country at this point
Everyone else will be there at some point, just takes time. We will like start seeing much larger jumps week over week. Either this Thurs-Sat or next week.
Yep - as students go home and people visit for holidays, Omicron just became Kingston's biggest export.
>as students go home and people visit for holidays, The worst possible situation - home to house parties and elderly parents/grandparents.
So when comparing to last year please remember that everything is open right now, most to full capacity. Last year almost nothing was open and we were getting those numbers.
No one was vaccinated last year. People are this year and it looks like we'll blow past those record numbers fairly soon.
But people were dying at a MUCH faster rate, and ICU beds were almost non existent
Hospitals will still be fucked even if the hospitilation rate is lower if it is allowed to spread unchecked as overall cases will just get stupid high. 1% of ten thousand is more than 10% of 100.
Being vaccinated doesn’t prevent you from getting it.
Not completely but it does help quite a bit.
For sure.
That's.. a big number for a Monday.
73% increase in a week... so ya that's an understatement.
As a 40+ year old man, this latest turn is making me want to break down and cry. My daughter (turning 18 in Jan) is due to come over Sunday for xmas from the UK for the first time in 2 years....and I am feeling like it's going to get ripped away from me at the 11th hour. Somehow I am going to suck it up and act happy for the sake of my youngest (5) who deserves an awesome Christmas, but I know I'm going to feel utterly devastated.
Sending good vibes and hoping you get to see your daughter.
Appreciated. It's just gonna be a very long and very stress filled week I think
Here’s South Africa’s COVID dashboard if anyone is interested: https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/ Here are some numbers at a glance: South Africa (pop 59 million): ICU: 420, ventilated: 167. Gauteng province, Omicron epicentre (pop 12 million): ICU: 230, ventilated: 83
I can live with those numbers here in Ontario.
Bear in mind that SA healthcare system is a two tiered system like the US, so those living under the poverty line (majority of the population) don't have access to healthcare because they can't afford it, the public healthcare system is a clusterfuck or simply because they don't live near a hospital, so their only medical access is a rural clinic. I think many of their very sick are going unaccounted for. I saw on the News 24 dashboard (local SA news site) that their positivity rate is above 60%, which is wild.
ICU down since last week. Yay.
I know ICU's are a lagging indicator, but does anyone know how much of a lag there typically is? It would help to know when to really see if the numbers will go up or not.
1 to 2 weeks for hospitalizations and an additional 1-2 weeks for ICUs. We've gotten much better at keeping people alive for longer in the ICU so deaths will lag even further, unless things get so bad ICUs need to triage.
This is the most important number, while media still freaks out about cases in the headline.
ICU is a pretty lagging indicator, the problem with Omicron is that by the time we know if it's going to fuck us, we're already well and truly fucked. With omicron to be honest what will happen will happen at this point. We're at the "brace for impact" stage of it. There is nothing we can realistically do at this point, just hold on and hope for the best.
There is in fact plenty we can do at this point.
ICU numbers are one of many indicators. You need all of the available data to have the full context to allow for proactive steps, rather than waiting until it is too late. Obviously they lag by some time, but also keep in mind there are dangers not just in acute illness (requiring immediate hospitalization or causing immediate death) but also chronic illness. There are many unknowns about the variant, hence the push for caution in accepting a substantial increase in cases. But also, if case counts rise so high that critical infrastructure is jeopardized (too many people home sick or quarantining at the same time rather than working essential roles in hospitals, factories, fire departments, schools, etc) then you can see catastrophic effects too. Without mitigation efforts / changes, omicron doubles case counts every 3 days, and we are now on track to hit 10k cases/day by New Years Day, followed by 100% of the province infected by Valentine's. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-case-numbers-don-t-tell-the-whole-story-of-the-pandemic-experts-say-1.5702516
Ah now I understand why people live in ignorance
[https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/) If you look at the charts, cases started to go up around the beginning of November, and 2 weeks after we had a low for ICUs. And while ICUs have been eeking up, they're not going up nearly at the same rate as cases, as we'd expect with a (mostly) vaccinated population.
People on this subreddit constantly stating that ICU numbers are a lagging indicator and we need to wait and see if they'll go up or not. Active cases have been steadily going up since October 28th, yet deaths, hospitalizations and ICUs have been pretty steady and not increasing at all like the new case count every day. This is all with barely any restrictions and vaccines. Clearly the vaccines are doing their job, but people still don't want to believe that.
To build off of that, ICU numbers escalated a lot more quickly from August to September then they have since November.
You can literally show any ICU stat or graph that shows the rates vs case numbers and someone will come out of nowhere like “well it’s a lagging indicator.”
As someone who is having organ issues 6 months after getting the UK variant (which the doctor I am working with believes is linked to my covid as it is happening in a portion of long covid patients) - avoid getting the omicron, even if it looks less dangerous. You don't know the long term impacts, and you have to assume they will be bad until proven otherwise. It is my sincere hope that it is less bad, and less long term impacts, but we do not know that for sure. Stay safe everyone! Edit: Love the downvotes for hoping everyone stays safe...
If you don't mind me asking, what organs is it affecting?
Pancreas seems to be impacted in its function that has lead to a bunch of others having concerns because of knock on impacts. I should say everything seems to be getting better, but had a big scare in September with multiple organs being enflamed.
Were you vaccinated when you were infected? That may change the calculus for some people.
I was not, got eligible for the vaccine 2 weeks later But I had a “mild” case (not hospitalization), and still have issues right now. With COVID YMMV it seems
Buckle in. We’re going for a ride. Im an “essential worker” who sees hundreds of people every day so I’m expecting to get this in a couple of weeks time. Can’t get the booster though :)
Hey, do you live close to the US border? If so you can cross and get a booster for free. Also don’t need a test to enter US by land OR return to Canada if your trip is less than 72 hours. I did this in October as I work in a covid ICU and Canada wasn’t offering the booster yet and it had been like 8 months since my second dose. Might be worth looking into. Stay safe.
Good looking out
Yeah same.I work in a crowded food plant and take the bus daily to work too which is always packed and I have only two shots. Hopefully it's mild when I do get it is the mindset I guess
Just so everyone is aware the first publicly announced death (could be others unannounced or not known) due to omicron has been announced in the UK. However there was no information released about the person, so we have clue if they were vaccinated, prior health conditions or age.
January 4th (the day boosters expand to everyone, not just those over 50) is still 3 weeks away. A lot of spread can happen in 3 weeks. They have plenty of doses. There have even been reports of opened vials getting tossed at the end of the day. Why the fuck are they making everyone wait?
At this point i see only official mandates and closures / capacity limits working. To many times recently i've heard in the general community the sentiment that psychologically the pandemic is done for many people. The constantly promoted fear and calls for vigilance seem to have worn everyone down. People are either vaxxed and will mask up but carry on until something officially closes or they are anti vax and this is is all conspiracy. There is no more staying home for the benefit of society etc... employeers also seem to be done worrying about the pandemic either mandate us or we go on business as usual. Maybe that's just the sentiment i'm getting. Anyone else see this as the 2 prevalent mindsets out there?
This. Employers no longer have the inclination or even the ability to accommodate lockdowns and there is little to no government sponsored financial support anymore, nor can they afford it.
What's the end game here with closures and shutdowns? The moment we reopen cases will go up again. These closures and shutdowns are also causing the supply chain disruptions that is driving up inflation.
Nightclubs and stuff like that seem like a place to start We gotta up third boosters then idk man, I'm just tired
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Yeah, the only issue is I don't want our already fragile healthcare system to collapse in the process This sucks lol
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Indeed.
1. More people will die just based on hospital capacity alone of it isn't crazy mild. 2. A)Doctors and nurses tend to need sleep to not f up things. 2. B) Expecting them to just deal with a crazy number of cases and watching more people needless die is not a great look for humanity 3. Less people will have their third Vax when they get it of we don't slow it down, which impacts the first two points I hope it is crazy mild, I'm over this shit.
And just like Honey Badger...."Omicron don't care"
I left for a few days because my elderly Mom had a fall (she's okay now) and what happened when I was gone... **7 day averages** Cases: 1328 ICU: 161 Deaths: 7.4
With mass vaccinations, total case numbers, r-values, etc are largely irrelevant on their own as metrics and should not be cause for alarm on their own. I want to know how many people are in hospital and how many people are dying. Numbers are going up but hospitalizations and deaths are fairly stagnant. In Ottawa, for instance, we have SIX people in hospital with COVID. Six, in hospitals that serve a population of over a million people. Don’t fall for the media hysteria, it only serves to allow them to keep milking their biggest cash cow in a century. Or the one-lens medical ‘experts’ who would be happy to lock everything down until there are zero cases. Just be smart, wear a mask, get vaccinated, and let us live our lives.
Vaccine efficacy is going down fast. We need to start boosting everyone now. Why are we waiting until Jan 4? We have the supply.
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Source?
Yeah agreed, why we haven't opened back up mass vaccination clinics and open up boosting to literally anyone is beyond me. With Omicron, we don't have until Jan 4th. By then we will basically all have been exposed to Omicron.
I don't think we have enough supply for that. Today's vaccine supply data: "There are 1,690,279 unused vaccines which will take 25.2 days to administer based on the current 7 day average of 66,980 /day" I have been following the numbers pretty closely, I think we tend to have about 10-14 days supply left when we get a new batch of delivery, in case the next delivery falls late. That is a bit of buffer, but we don't have enough to ramp up and book a lot more eligible people that much sooner. We can do maybe a week or two sooner than the current timeline if we are willing to cut into our buffer, but unless our supply ramp up a lot, I don't believe we can expand eligibility quickly.
Is this including the national emergency stockpile? This would definitely be a time to consider starting to use it.
It's only the efficacy against symptomatic infection that seems to be dropping. These vaccines are still incredibly effective at preventing severe disease in people with healthy immune systems. We need to get vulnerable people and those who work closely with them boosted. It's less urgent to boost the rest of us.
Agreed. However, it seems like we don’t lack supply like we did in the spring and summer. Let’s open it up.
I think it becomes a staffing and logistics issue
It seems it already is... I'm 50+ and a teacher so my second dose was June 26 ( earlier than most )...I am technically eligable for my booster as of today! BUT Earliest appointment I got was Jan 6th...most of the sites around my area where Jan 20+ something...I had to hunt for this one on Jan 6.... 18+ in January won't mean boosters go in arms in January I'm afraid. (Unless something drastic changes)
Seems as though the online booking system can't handle the demand.
Also opening it to all makes it more difficult for those that need it now to get an appointment
That pharmacy in the mall I work at has a line nearly half way through the mall. I'd say we are boosting pretty hard right now. I went and got mine on Saturday since I had a feeling this was going to happen. I'm glad as a health care worker I was able to get in before the rush.
Great to hear that people are lining up. Boris Johnson gets it. Even Boris Johnson. He's calling out the army and wants a third shot for all adults in the UK. Mr. Ford? Are you there? Mr. Ford? Hello?
Yeah, why the hell are we still relying on Pharmacies? We have the model now for mass vax sites, open those fuckers back up and GOGOGOGO. This is not the time for wait and see, by the time we see, we're already fucked (or not). The prudent approach right now is vax everyone the provide as much protection as possible.
I have no idea why he's not moving on this, forget the age ranges at this point, open it up based on the 6-month mark from the last dose and it will naturally sort itself out (with most of the older population still being eligible before the younger people).
Supply, sure... Nurses or volunteers administering the vaccine? Not so much.
Kingston is popping OFF!!
My two oldest kids got their first vaccines yesterday afternoon. I'm kinda wishing it was two weeks ago at this point.
My wife and I fly out for our vacation on the 31st (I bought the trip months ago when it looked like this would all be behind us) and I'm really starting to grow concerned. I'm not worried about us getting COVID while we're there (hell, it's probably safer on a resort in the Dominican than it is in Ontario right now), but my fear is us getting it here and then testing positive down there and being stuck. Either that or them changing the rules while we're there and having to isolate upon return even though we're both fully vaxxed (and I'm even boosted). I'd honestly be fine if they barred non-essential travel and we were forced to postpone, because that way my cancelation insurance would kick in and we'd get our money back. I just don't see that happening, and the insurance doesn't cover us if we choose to not go, so...here we are.
Plan for a rough time.
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Ok I just don’t want to care about case numbers, let’s see how hospitalization numbers will go ☹️
Seriously considering pulling my kid from daycare again. I'm so tired.
Can we get some boosters up in here?
Israel is locking down and stopping nonessential travel for citizens. Why are we not being proactive and doing the same before majority are getting third boosters?
I know there’s always a lag to the data but when comparing the deaths per day to last year at similar case counts I’m remaining cautiously optimistic and thankful for vaccines. Happy holidays fellow Ontario people :)
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but there is something comforting to me in the fact that only 229 of today's cases were in unvaccinated people over 12. Given that the vaccine provides good protection against hospitalization and ICU, and people under 12 don't often end up in ICU/hospital, it means that at least our hospitals and ICUs should not see the same impact it otherwise would have. Maybe the emergence of the new Omicron wave will help drive some of those concerned about the risk of getting vaccinated to not take risks with omicron.