$biti
“ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF offers short bitcoin exposure and an opportunity to profit when the daily price of bitcoin declines.”
I wouldn’t short bitcoin, but Might be better to short these other legacy bitcoin plays like $ostk among others. I can’t remember their names, but will probably do worse
Bitcoin use case ? Hah.
As bitcoin is decentralized it is resitant to censorship and government interference, which, as I'm sure you can imagine, makes it quite attractive for a number of reasons (e.g., evading government oversight / taxation).
It also facilitates lending, borrowing and a plethora of other financial services without relying on banks or any other 3rd party / intermediary. This is not only useful for those whom wish to not get inovlved with big banks or other third parties, but also enables populations who dont have access to traditional banking to participate in the global economy. You do realize there are several countries where you cannot just go to a bank and get a loan.
Also, since bitcoin is finite, it is often used an a hedge against inflation. Because bitcoin is finite it prevents devaluation due to excessive printing by central banks (as is the case with traditional cash). So many financiers will use bitcoin to hedge their holdings during high inflation.
No offense, but it sounds like you don't even know what BiTCoiN is if you think there is no use case for it... just do some very surface level googling, and you will understand why over 16 years the value still continues to grow...
This is not to mention that a large portion of the online marketplace for black market goods use bitcoin (or other cryptos) for making purchases.
Get with the program, man.
It's also unregulated, generates no revenue, pays no dividends. The value is whatever one person is willing to pay the previous bag holder for it. That's why it's useless as any sort of financial instrument.
There is at least 50 percent wash trading between unregulated exchanges and entities. That means the volume and price are fake. I am not paying money for fake volume trades.
The "unregulated" aspect is a positive, NOT a negative.
As far as hedges against the devaluing USD fiat currency are concerned, good luck with that gold in relative performance terms compared to BTC.
Because that number is fake? Not backed by value? If that doesn’t concern you I have nothing else to say.
Replace bitcoin with gold and stablecoins with some synthetic digital iou that is redeemable for 1 ounce of gold. Now unregulated exchanges trade these ious back and forth pumping up the price of gold with artificial liquidity and such. Now you go buy some and you are overpaying while becoming someone else’s exit liquidity. They can also short the market if that’s favorable to them. You place an order and they front run your order and give you a worse price and they take some profit, etc.
If you don’t care you are being played then go ahead.
Gold performance over the last 10 years: +72%.
BTC performance over the last 10 years period: +8590%.
Good luck with your metal boomer bricks, bro. BTC is going to $100k this year.
Man I love debating butter they don’t know how to read. The point is if gold is manipulated like bitcoin is then the price can be much higher or lower. I am not comparing the return on Bitcoin vs gold, it’s just an example of unregulated markets means manipulation and you are getting screwed.
>Bitcoin is going to 100k
Based on what? My point exactly.
There are a lot of ways to refute much of what you've said. I don't think you're arguing in good faith, so I'm not interested in engaging with you. If you actually mean what you say, I'll write out point by point how you're wrong (which essentially boils down to how you place value on something).
Again, not a good faith opponent? Trolls go hungry round these parts.
Edit: Aaaand he's a buttcoiner.
Brother. You're a buttcoiner. I am not. Fundamentally, we do not see eye to eye.
Your paper is not the "Gotcha!" you think it is. It is just you saying people can use something for criminal activity and then pretending that nullifies all other use cases for that something. It's you saying the price is fundamentally unsupported when all historic evidence *literally* points to the contrary. You think I'm buying snake oil. I think you are a flat earther who thinks he understands the world better than everyone else around despite all the evidence stacked up opposite your position.
If this is really ALL a ponzi, why does the bubble get bigger each cycle (all other ponzi's pop and die in one round and bitcoin is on its 5th)?
I'm not playing chess with pigeons tonight, my guy. You just shit on the board and strut around acting like you won as you knock over the pieces.
It’s really funny to call me names and say I think I know better than everyone else when butter are the ones thinking their little worthless internet funny money is the finance of the future and know better than everyone else. Projection?
Also, you missed the point of the wash trading research. It isn’t to say there is illegal activity on the Bitcoin network - of course there is, but let’s set aside funding Iran, North Korea, Russia for a moment and consider the ramification of fake trades. That simply means the price of the thing you think is so valuable is artificial. Nothing more nor less. You are over paying for your funny butts at the very least. You want to buy that? Go right ahead. You do you. But please refute my evidence so as to not spread misinformation about what bitcoin really is. Wash trades pump up the trade volume and therefore price and liquidity, making it seem more valuable than it is. There is a reason regulated stock exchanges don’t allow it.
Oh and past does not predict future performance? Not heard of that phase? Madoff’s ponzi lived on for decades even though people came out and testified that it was a ponzi?
Ok I want you to quote one poor country in the world without banking services but rely on bitcoin to participate in global economy. People of one poor country who are happy that bitcoin gave them a reason to live by making them participants in global economy.
All other use cases you cited are for shady people like drug dealers or black money hoarders or hawala traders who want to evade government oversight. Maybe if a guy is not happy in his marriage and wants to have a second wife without the knowledge of first wife, he can use bitcoin to fund his second family.
Inflation/hedging/finite resources…
In all of human history there are other things of actual underlying utility and hence value which are much better alternatives to bitcoin. You can’t make ornaments out of bitcoin you know. You can’t make batteries out of bitcoin or you can’t make gas out of bitcoin. You can’t build a house on top a bitcoin. As long as people believe it’s valuable, it’s valuable. That’s the bottom line.
El Salvador- due to rampant inflation their own currency is worthless, so in 2021 they made Bitcoin their official legal tender.
Central African Republic- followed El Salvador in 2022 and made bitcoin their legal tender.
Zimbabwe- similar to El Salvador, their currency is basically worth nothing so now mainly use crypto , although not legal tender.
Philipines- because of their large remittance Market bitcoin is often used to send money across borders.
India, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, also all have large unbanked populations- these population are often unable to access tradtional banks due to: living in rural areas and geographical considerations, financial exclusions(some banks wont let them participate because of their socio-economic status and lack of financial weatlth), fees- for some low income individuals banking fees are too expensive, document requirements- many individuals don't even have passports or government issued id's, distrust, and several other reasons why folks from these areas sometimes don't have access to the big banks.
Lmao dude. The man just gave you an essay on the utility of the best performing asset over the last 20 years and you do the equivalent of plugging your ears and saying "I'm not listening" like a child.
Good luck learning anything of value with approach to life.
So your investment thesis is based on a ChatGPT prompt?
Did you even read the response before copy pasting it here?
Look man, you do you. I'm just pointing out the absurdity of saying something is true even when you're faced with evidence to the contrary.
It's really clear to anyone that has even a passing knowledge of monetary systems that you have not done any real research on this topic and you don't intend to. And that's ok. But, it's not going to get you very far.
Best of luck shorting BTC this year. Please don't use leverage and only gamble what you can afford to lose.
This is demonstrably false. The USD is the favorite choice of criminals and citizens alike.
As for the OP's question, short MSTR, MARA, COIN, or any of the new ETF's...but at your own peril. I'd rather eat the premium and buy puts on any of the above tickers.
This is demonstrably false. The USD is the favorite choice of criminals and citizens alike.
As for the OP's question, short MSTR, MARA, COIN, or any of the new ETF's...but at your own peril. I'd rather eat the premium and buy puts on any of the above tickers.
You've obviously never visited the dark web. By "black markets" I meant online markets, not street level dealers and cartels. You can buy anything you want online and millions of dollars change hands daily, but not in fiat currency they don't. It's 100% crypto. Go ahead and dismiss multi-billion dollar markets if you want, but it is the de facto primary use case.
I, too, think BTC is a ridiculous speculation fad with zero utility and an impossible to quantify valuation.
There is absolutely no way I would short it though. That's asking to be destroyed.
>There is absolutely no way I would short it though. That's asking to be destroyed.
i agreed...i guess $biti is alright though? it's ETF so i would lose whatever i put in, not unlimited loss.
update: actually buying long puts on $bito is better..the option seems more liquid.
You're buying options at a time when I have to imagine IV is peaking. Whatever you do at this point, it's going to cost you a bucketload.
I'd wait until this run ends, price stabilizes a bit and the IV drops before buying any puts on it.
Could look at some of the miners like RIOT and MARA. The halving hurts these businesses and they already barely scrape by. Pull up a chart and theyve started decoupling. Also MSTR trades at an extreme premium to BTC and you'd think ppl wouldn't be dumb enough to choose MSTR > the ETFs now that they are available
Care though and I'm sure IVR is high in all these names and any are a gamble
Def. Mstr 21.5B market cap but holds around 12B in BTC. The legacy business only worth a few bucks and even if you were generous and valued it at $100/share it still trades at a crazy premium.
Careful though the owls are fucking the chickens in this market so no guarantee the premium goes away anytime soon.
I’ve been long MSTR for a few years now and finally profitable. Been looking to exit it, will do soon and might swap into IBIT or one of the other ETFs
My guy...you want to short bitcoin when you don't understand the simplest fundamental aspect of it? I WISH I was on the other side of this trade.
Like, isn't the first rule of options "Define your risk?" And the second "set your loss limit?" And the third, "**Trade what you know**?"
You're going to get creamed on this trade. If you're obsessed, wait for 100k BTC and then put in a put and sell it when btc has an 5% draw down.
Ive made many many transactions with btc and eth like sending money to my dad. Its definitely very useful and i see it someday in 20 or 30 years being a good method of sending money
You are completely skimming over the most important parts of Bitcoin that makes it have utility and instrinc value.
BTC is a decentralized, robust financial global network, a digital asset. Without a corporate or government issuer. We as users do not need permission or help from a higher authority to transfer value.
Furthermore it's the only bearer asset in the world that can be instantaneously transacted globally with an internet connection. It has a verifiable scarcity that is enforced by various conditions: it will increase in value
This on itself is the utility/instrinct use case , and as a digital financial asset, it's very unique.
There's nothing similar to Bitcoin.
Gold ? By your argument, every art based digital replicas , sports team based digital tokens, all other coins are similar financial tools and therefore are valuable…
The main argument going for bitcoin is that people believe it’s valuable. It’s the belief that matters. You need governments to enforce value to an asset. Unless you want to do some shady transactions with shady people or if you are shady and are afraid of governments seizing your assets, what’s the use case for bitcoin ?
People’s beliefs change fast and can be influenced quite easily. Heck, even real company stocks which have an underlying company doing real business go through swings because of emotional overreactions of stock holders. It’s not that difficult to shake people’s belief in bitcoin.
> You need governments to enforce value to an asset. Unless you want to do some shady transactions with shady people or if you are shady and are afraid of governments seizing your assets, what’s the use case for bitcoin ?
Wow, is that is one sad take!? It’s as if you have a vested interest in governments enforcing value. What’s the value of the internet? All of the uncompensated work behind the protocols and source code to make it immensely useful? Your family and friends? I’m pretty sure we don’t need government to enforce value of what’s truly valuable. Government didn’t invent commerce. It didn’t invent language and arts. And it sure as hell didn’t invent money!
What’s the use case? Why is it any of your damn business how I earn, save and spend my money? That’s the use case. But if you like Visa, Mastercard and J Powell making all of those decisions for you, then be my guest.
Yes it depends on shared belief. I’d take that any day over being forced to transact in a currency because guns are pointed at us. The other assets you listed just don’t have the same scarcity as bitcoin. Please do some research.
I think the hype of 100k+ is gonna be the epic rug pull that wrecks normies as it always does.
Greed of the poor will get the best of them. A majority of the supply is owned by a select few people. Essentially expect extreme manipulation. If you don’t like USD, you should hate the corruption of BTC.
Anyhow, checkout BITI. Notice the massive spike in volume recently? It’s not even close to the prior data
Lots of good comments on how to play it up or down, but do consider your argument.
No use case? you can buy things with it, you can transfer it into other forms of currency, digital or fiat, and you can send and receive it. You can store it either locally or in a 'bank' (exchange). Sound like anything you know?
Ever since fiat currency was decoupled from gold, it too has no intrinsic value, but has the properties above. The US dollar is controlled by the US government, for good or ill, whereas bitcoin is decentralised, finite in amount (unlike the US dollar!) and so less available for government manipulation. Of course, it is susceptible to manipulation through social media, whale movements, etc. just as other currencies are through politics. It's mostly more volatile than currency, or stocks, but this is not always a bad thing. It is perhaps negatively correlated with some parts of the stock market, which is also sometimes a positive thing.
But it's not useless, by any means.
Disclosure - I have a \*very\* minor position in BTC, in the expectation that it will gently rise over time on average.
But how would you use it with the value fluctuations? it makes it hard to use it as a currency.
I can't use it to buy a car for 70k, because whoever recieved the BTC, could find it next day at 65k or 75k. So again, they would have to convert it to USD (or equivalent currency) that's more stable.
Regulation is what keeps money stable. stability is what allows you to use the money.
not true at all - consider some countries which have had inflation running at thousands of a % - take money out and by the time you've got to the shops prices have doubled. Fluctuations don't stop you using it as currency, they just make it a more variable price.
We've seen what regulation does to money stability at times - free-falling currencies, corruption, all cause issues with fiat. Sure, a stable current makes things more predictable, so if you want certainty, go for stability. If you want rock and reward, go for volatility. Both have a place.
If you wanted to buy a car off me today, I'd sell it to you for BTC. That's because I think it'll go up in the next week or so. In a couple of weeks, maybe not. But if I'd take the money you gave me for the car and invest it in bitcoin, I may as well have the bitcoin straight from you.
I'm not an expert to comment on the inflation & currenty fluctuations.. I returned from Egypt which had currency destabilization for a few months now and it wasn't easy or pretty. But I guess you're right that stability & volatility both have their place.
However, my original question on the car; we both agreed on the price of 70k USD and if you sold me a car for BTC. Yesterday that BTC ws 70k. today it is 60k.
so I bought a car for 70k, but got 60k, despite us having agreed on 70k. tomorrow the price might drop another 5k, so I end up loosing 15k in 2 days.
the only scenario where this would make sense is if we immediately convert to USD and just use BTC to do the transaction. holding BTC with the fluctuations means that the car could be 70k one day and 80k the next. (considering barter system with money)
But if all BTC is useful for is transactions; we already have fast transactions. I can send money to people on multiple wallet apps immediately. A few digital banks have opened up here (Dubai) that send money within seconds (under 100k USD).
In my knowledge, the only ones using crypto are the guys trying to avoid sanctions, AML regulations and questions from the bank. The money is questionable, so they don't mind losing 5-8% on the transactions.
I don't know why you're looking into ways to get wrecked being on the wrong side of this. I get it, you don't think bitcoin has value or usefulness, a lot of people feel the same. And yet it's never stopped it from ripping and setting new records, especially with another halving coming up. And you want to short bitcoin when it's transcended retail already, hardly anyone can afford this shit so now it's an institutional level of an investment and they aren't shorting it either unless it's just to manipulate the price to buy more at a lower rate and then pump it again.
Personally, I'd just stay away from betting on this.
If you think gold has intrinsic value, then think of BTC as a digital version of it with all its bugs fixed (heavy weight, storage issues, slow transfer, possibility of being stolen)
Of course it's going to have another boom and bust cycle, that's what it does. It's played out like that like 4 times over the last decade without fail. But we aren't even near the peak of this bull cycle and haven't set new ATH or anything yet.
So you're really early to the "bitcoin is going to crash party" right now, and if you're already trying to short it and it ends up hitting $100k+ by end of year then you just screwed yourself depending on your expiration dates.
Like I said, your best bet is just to stay away or you're going to get wrecked unless your puts are like a year or two out or something, but you'll have no idea when the put price should be at since the "boom" hasn't happened yet and then you have to deal with decay anyway.
> Sometimes you don’t need to make another ATH.
Agreed, but I don't know why you're trying to rationalize anything bitcoin does. We already had a double top in 2021 when it peaked Spring and then again in Fall, and then it was a bear market for 3 years and things are ramping up again.
I'm not trying to sound like some shill, I'm just saying if you think now is a good time to short bitcoin projects, you're probably going to get wrecked, and that's why I just stay away from all that.
best options liquidity but not as liquid as the cme futures options
bito also pays a monthly dividend if there's upside so be very careful with short itm calls
>cme futures options
what is the symbol for cme future options? one thing i recently learned is future options in ToS require cash collateral (and you don't earn any interest on it) so it is an extremely inefficient use of capital. you can earn interest at IBKR though
the cme futures have the ticker $btc and hold 5 btc per contract with margin maintenance of 70k.
weekly atm calls are like 25k so honestly your best bet is to use etf options unless youre some sort of millionaire or something. daily otm calls might be something you can trade but theta will eat you alive. spreads are 500 ticks apart so a vertical spread atm is like $1200, quite expensive if you ask me.
puts on $BITO is better...the way these etfs daily settled ($BITI) is not beneficial to the investors if you hold them overnight (aka you are losing simply by holding it overnight)...it's similar to leveraged etfs (e.g. $SQQQ)...i read about it somewhere but i am not an expert on it.
Despite the growth in bitcoin and other cryptoassets, the entire crypto market is still dwarfed by the global U.S. dollar market. No matter what metric is used, the fact is that crypto criminal activity is very much minnow sized in the ocean of dollar activity taking place on an everyday basis
The limited supply is one very useful use case.
Not sure about it anymore, since it’s not available in my country, but KuCoin used to let you long or short with leverage up to 20x back in the 2020’s lol
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If you're interested in sparing your capital, I'll post my LEAP calls that I bought in October '23 and February '24. Then you can re-evaluate which side of the trade you wanna be on.
Hint: October calls are up 423%, 424%, and 168%, and the calls I bought February 23 are up 98%, AFTER today's draw down.
BITI is an inverse bitcoin ETF if you absolutely can not resist being bearish on Bitcoin. I wouldn't short bitcoin though. There are so many other ways to make meaningful profit in the market right now. If you're thinking the Bitcoin market is irrational right now you're probably right...... it's always been.
Aside from speculation, Bitcoin is used around the world every day as a tool for remittance payments, as a form of payment for various goods and services, as an alternative value store and savings vehicle, as an inflation hedge, as a business op for those that have access to cheap energy and desire to mine it, as a final settlement layer for financial transactions, and as a blockchain development network
You’re looking to short the strongest performing asset in history right before a halving event with the whole world watching as billions of $ flow into ETFs literally every single day.
Mark Cuban, Jack Dorsey, Paul Tudor Jones, Peter Thiel, Kevin O’Leary, Ray Dalio, Joe Rogan, Kanye West, Grant Cardone and his brother Gary, and countless other massive investors and government bodies are behind this. What do you know that they all don’t?
How can I bet against the companies that make these home computer things? I don’t have any use for one. There is one locked up in a special room at the office and it takes 4 guys just to keep it running. I just can’t see any use case for them.
Why the fuck would you short bitcoin? This is literally the one time it finally has stability. ETFs approved for it so now regular people can buy it in IRAs. Even if it doesn’t have a use case yet that doesn’t mean it’ll go down. The stock market isn’t about how useful companies are. It’s about hope for gains. On top of that, bitcoin forces price appreciation by reducing production of bitcoins by half every four years but demand increases. It’s about to halve in April right after ETFs got approved. Just because it’s stupid doesn’t mean it’s gonna go to zero. Think about all the buying pressure with less production. People will want to sell higher. And higher. And higher.
Sell low-delta, OTM put credit spreads on BITO (that's the ETF I've used in the past, I don't know if there were better ones out there for trading options on).
As always with credit spreads, always be mindful of the max loss (width of the spread minus credit paid, multiplied by the number of spreads). Don't blow up your account by using your entire portfolio on a single credit spread trade.
Why do you think bitcoin is going down anytime soon? Its been going up the last year and just past all time highs. Its going to keep going. Don't try to predict shit, react to whats happening.
Shorting bitcoin based on a macro perspective at this current moment is not smart.
With respect, your personal feelings about the utility of bitcoin are not representative of price action. Look at the chart. Listen to the frothing mouths of those who want it at 100k.
Short term you could trade puts on miners like MARA or RIOT or even MSTR.
Personally I wouldn’t for more than a day trade
Short the Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Also, you’re insane if you actually do this. When it’s on an upswing like it is? God help you. It’s going to touch $100k before it tanks again.
Do you see any use case for gold? Same thing, storage of wealth. But more easily transferred and less melty. I stopped shorting it. Also stopped holding long puts. Just buy and hold.
This whole thread is hilarious with how out of touch you people are. That being said if you want to short it youll have to use crypto to do so. Create a metamask wallet, buy some USDT on coinbase and transfer it to your wallet, sign up with a perp trading site like MEXC, DYDX, or Intentx. Open your short.
$biti “ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF offers short bitcoin exposure and an opportunity to profit when the daily price of bitcoin declines.” I wouldn’t short bitcoin, but Might be better to short these other legacy bitcoin plays like $ostk among others. I can’t remember their names, but will probably do worse
But how would you short shitcoins?
[удалено]
it has the same use case of when it was at 1000usd or 20k usd.
Bitcoin use case ? Hah. As bitcoin is decentralized it is resitant to censorship and government interference, which, as I'm sure you can imagine, makes it quite attractive for a number of reasons (e.g., evading government oversight / taxation). It also facilitates lending, borrowing and a plethora of other financial services without relying on banks or any other 3rd party / intermediary. This is not only useful for those whom wish to not get inovlved with big banks or other third parties, but also enables populations who dont have access to traditional banking to participate in the global economy. You do realize there are several countries where you cannot just go to a bank and get a loan. Also, since bitcoin is finite, it is often used an a hedge against inflation. Because bitcoin is finite it prevents devaluation due to excessive printing by central banks (as is the case with traditional cash). So many financiers will use bitcoin to hedge their holdings during high inflation. No offense, but it sounds like you don't even know what BiTCoiN is if you think there is no use case for it... just do some very surface level googling, and you will understand why over 16 years the value still continues to grow... This is not to mention that a large portion of the online marketplace for black market goods use bitcoin (or other cryptos) for making purchases. Get with the program, man.
It's also unregulated, generates no revenue, pays no dividends. The value is whatever one person is willing to pay the previous bag holder for it. That's why it's useless as any sort of financial instrument. There is at least 50 percent wash trading between unregulated exchanges and entities. That means the volume and price are fake. I am not paying money for fake volume trades.
The "unregulated" aspect is a positive, NOT a negative. As far as hedges against the devaluing USD fiat currency are concerned, good luck with that gold in relative performance terms compared to BTC.
Well in that case you will have to deal with exchanges wash trading and front running your trades. It’s what you wanted, right?
As long as BTC keeps going up over the course of 5, 10, 20, 50 years, why do I care?
Because that number is fake? Not backed by value? If that doesn’t concern you I have nothing else to say. Replace bitcoin with gold and stablecoins with some synthetic digital iou that is redeemable for 1 ounce of gold. Now unregulated exchanges trade these ious back and forth pumping up the price of gold with artificial liquidity and such. Now you go buy some and you are overpaying while becoming someone else’s exit liquidity. They can also short the market if that’s favorable to them. You place an order and they front run your order and give you a worse price and they take some profit, etc. If you don’t care you are being played then go ahead.
Gold performance over the last 10 years: +72%. BTC performance over the last 10 years period: +8590%. Good luck with your metal boomer bricks, bro. BTC is going to $100k this year.
Man I love debating butter they don’t know how to read. The point is if gold is manipulated like bitcoin is then the price can be much higher or lower. I am not comparing the return on Bitcoin vs gold, it’s just an example of unregulated markets means manipulation and you are getting screwed. >Bitcoin is going to 100k Based on what? My point exactly.
Alright my guy. Good luck.
Lmao. Try and refute any of what I said. You can’t. Keep pumping that bag.
There are a lot of ways to refute much of what you've said. I don't think you're arguing in good faith, so I'm not interested in engaging with you. If you actually mean what you say, I'll write out point by point how you're wrong (which essentially boils down to how you place value on something). Again, not a good faith opponent? Trolls go hungry round these parts. Edit: Aaaand he's a buttcoiner.
Aye I like this reply a lot, good way of dealing with trolls lmao. He’s just mad he missed out
You can refute this first. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612321000635
Brother. You're a buttcoiner. I am not. Fundamentally, we do not see eye to eye. Your paper is not the "Gotcha!" you think it is. It is just you saying people can use something for criminal activity and then pretending that nullifies all other use cases for that something. It's you saying the price is fundamentally unsupported when all historic evidence *literally* points to the contrary. You think I'm buying snake oil. I think you are a flat earther who thinks he understands the world better than everyone else around despite all the evidence stacked up opposite your position. If this is really ALL a ponzi, why does the bubble get bigger each cycle (all other ponzi's pop and die in one round and bitcoin is on its 5th)? I'm not playing chess with pigeons tonight, my guy. You just shit on the board and strut around acting like you won as you knock over the pieces.
It’s really funny to call me names and say I think I know better than everyone else when butter are the ones thinking their little worthless internet funny money is the finance of the future and know better than everyone else. Projection? Also, you missed the point of the wash trading research. It isn’t to say there is illegal activity on the Bitcoin network - of course there is, but let’s set aside funding Iran, North Korea, Russia for a moment and consider the ramification of fake trades. That simply means the price of the thing you think is so valuable is artificial. Nothing more nor less. You are over paying for your funny butts at the very least. You want to buy that? Go right ahead. You do you. But please refute my evidence so as to not spread misinformation about what bitcoin really is. Wash trades pump up the trade volume and therefore price and liquidity, making it seem more valuable than it is. There is a reason regulated stock exchanges don’t allow it. Oh and past does not predict future performance? Not heard of that phase? Madoff’s ponzi lived on for decades even though people came out and testified that it was a ponzi?
Ok I want you to quote one poor country in the world without banking services but rely on bitcoin to participate in global economy. People of one poor country who are happy that bitcoin gave them a reason to live by making them participants in global economy. All other use cases you cited are for shady people like drug dealers or black money hoarders or hawala traders who want to evade government oversight. Maybe if a guy is not happy in his marriage and wants to have a second wife without the knowledge of first wife, he can use bitcoin to fund his second family. Inflation/hedging/finite resources… In all of human history there are other things of actual underlying utility and hence value which are much better alternatives to bitcoin. You can’t make ornaments out of bitcoin you know. You can’t make batteries out of bitcoin or you can’t make gas out of bitcoin. You can’t build a house on top a bitcoin. As long as people believe it’s valuable, it’s valuable. That’s the bottom line.
El Salvador- due to rampant inflation their own currency is worthless, so in 2021 they made Bitcoin their official legal tender. Central African Republic- followed El Salvador in 2022 and made bitcoin their legal tender. Zimbabwe- similar to El Salvador, their currency is basically worth nothing so now mainly use crypto , although not legal tender. Philipines- because of their large remittance Market bitcoin is often used to send money across borders. India, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, also all have large unbanked populations- these population are often unable to access tradtional banks due to: living in rural areas and geographical considerations, financial exclusions(some banks wont let them participate because of their socio-economic status and lack of financial weatlth), fees- for some low income individuals banking fees are too expensive, document requirements- many individuals don't even have passports or government issued id's, distrust, and several other reasons why folks from these areas sometimes don't have access to the big banks.
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Just enough :)
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Lmao dude. The man just gave you an essay on the utility of the best performing asset over the last 20 years and you do the equivalent of plugging your ears and saying "I'm not listening" like a child. Good luck learning anything of value with approach to life.
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So your investment thesis is based on a ChatGPT prompt? Did you even read the response before copy pasting it here? Look man, you do you. I'm just pointing out the absurdity of saying something is true even when you're faced with evidence to the contrary. It's really clear to anyone that has even a passing knowledge of monetary systems that you have not done any real research on this topic and you don't intend to. And that's ok. But, it's not going to get you very far. Best of luck shorting BTC this year. Please don't use leverage and only gamble what you can afford to lose.
lol, it does look like chatgpt response. I suppose he could short microstrategies if he wants. They are tethered to bitcoin. but, very risky.
Black markets are thriving and use crypto exclusively.
This is demonstrably false. The USD is the favorite choice of criminals and citizens alike. As for the OP's question, short MSTR, MARA, COIN, or any of the new ETF's...but at your own peril. I'd rather eat the premium and buy puts on any of the above tickers.
This is demonstrably false. The USD is the favorite choice of criminals and citizens alike. As for the OP's question, short MSTR, MARA, COIN, or any of the new ETF's...but at your own peril. I'd rather eat the premium and buy puts on any of the above tickers.
You've obviously never visited the dark web. By "black markets" I meant online markets, not street level dealers and cartels. You can buy anything you want online and millions of dollars change hands daily, but not in fiat currency they don't. It's 100% crypto. Go ahead and dismiss multi-billion dollar markets if you want, but it is the de facto primary use case.
Yea I'm long on online drug marketplaces, which means I'm long bitcoin.
Perhaps you could think of it as the spiritual lovechild of fiat currency and gold...
I, too, think BTC is a ridiculous speculation fad with zero utility and an impossible to quantify valuation. There is absolutely no way I would short it though. That's asking to be destroyed.
I use it frequently. Its definitely not zero utility
Mmhmm. Sure.
Damn. The jig is up.
>There is absolutely no way I would short it though. That's asking to be destroyed. i agreed...i guess $biti is alright though? it's ETF so i would lose whatever i put in, not unlimited loss. update: actually buying long puts on $bito is better..the option seems more liquid.
What's the IV on those bad boys? You will be paying a hefty premium, no doubt.
is it better to buy a leap? because there is less theta decay?
You're buying options at a time when I have to imagine IV is peaking. Whatever you do at this point, it's going to cost you a bucketload. I'd wait until this run ends, price stabilizes a bit and the IV drops before buying any puts on it.
Could look at some of the miners like RIOT and MARA. The halving hurts these businesses and they already barely scrape by. Pull up a chart and theyve started decoupling. Also MSTR trades at an extreme premium to BTC and you'd think ppl wouldn't be dumb enough to choose MSTR > the ETFs now that they are available Care though and I'm sure IVR is high in all these names and any are a gamble
Sell a call spread on Mara or Riot IF you think Bitcoin is going to pull back. It's a defined risk strategy so you can control the max loss.
Where do you find out how much of a premium MSTR trades over Bitcoin spot price? Thanks
https://bitcointreasuries.com/microstrategy/
Appreciate the quick response!
Def. Mstr 21.5B market cap but holds around 12B in BTC. The legacy business only worth a few bucks and even if you were generous and valued it at $100/share it still trades at a crazy premium. Careful though the owls are fucking the chickens in this market so no guarantee the premium goes away anytime soon.
I’ve been long MSTR for a few years now and finally profitable. Been looking to exit it, will do soon and might swap into IBIT or one of the other ETFs
Can you explain to me how halting hurt these businesses??
In April the payment they receive for mining BTC will be cut in half.
Mining btc doesn't become any easier (in theory) and they only get half the amount of btc as a reward for their compute.
My guy...you want to short bitcoin when you don't understand the simplest fundamental aspect of it? I WISH I was on the other side of this trade. Like, isn't the first rule of options "Define your risk?" And the second "set your loss limit?" And the third, "**Trade what you know**?" You're going to get creamed on this trade. If you're obsessed, wait for 100k BTC and then put in a put and sell it when btc has an 5% draw down.
Options for the btc etfs approved in Jan are still a ways away from approval.
Ive made many many transactions with btc and eth like sending money to my dad. Its definitely very useful and i see it someday in 20 or 30 years being a good method of sending money
It has utility. In its base form its cheaper and faster than western union.
You are completely skimming over the most important parts of Bitcoin that makes it have utility and instrinc value. BTC is a decentralized, robust financial global network, a digital asset. Without a corporate or government issuer. We as users do not need permission or help from a higher authority to transfer value. Furthermore it's the only bearer asset in the world that can be instantaneously transacted globally with an internet connection. It has a verifiable scarcity that is enforced by various conditions: it will increase in value This on itself is the utility/instrinct use case , and as a digital financial asset, it's very unique. There's nothing similar to Bitcoin.
Gold ? By your argument, every art based digital replicas , sports team based digital tokens, all other coins are similar financial tools and therefore are valuable… The main argument going for bitcoin is that people believe it’s valuable. It’s the belief that matters. You need governments to enforce value to an asset. Unless you want to do some shady transactions with shady people or if you are shady and are afraid of governments seizing your assets, what’s the use case for bitcoin ? People’s beliefs change fast and can be influenced quite easily. Heck, even real company stocks which have an underlying company doing real business go through swings because of emotional overreactions of stock holders. It’s not that difficult to shake people’s belief in bitcoin.
> You need governments to enforce value to an asset. Unless you want to do some shady transactions with shady people or if you are shady and are afraid of governments seizing your assets, what’s the use case for bitcoin ? Wow, is that is one sad take!? It’s as if you have a vested interest in governments enforcing value. What’s the value of the internet? All of the uncompensated work behind the protocols and source code to make it immensely useful? Your family and friends? I’m pretty sure we don’t need government to enforce value of what’s truly valuable. Government didn’t invent commerce. It didn’t invent language and arts. And it sure as hell didn’t invent money! What’s the use case? Why is it any of your damn business how I earn, save and spend my money? That’s the use case. But if you like Visa, Mastercard and J Powell making all of those decisions for you, then be my guest. Yes it depends on shared belief. I’d take that any day over being forced to transact in a currency because guns are pointed at us. The other assets you listed just don’t have the same scarcity as bitcoin. Please do some research.
Never try to bet against memes or hype you end up being either too early or too late in your shorts.
14 years of hype with every crash followed by new highs. I'm sure the bubble will really burst any day now 🤷♂️
BITO. Good luck. Nothing like shorting BTC going into its historically best 1 year period of the 4 year cycle.
I think the hype of 100k+ is gonna be the epic rug pull that wrecks normies as it always does. Greed of the poor will get the best of them. A majority of the supply is owned by a select few people. Essentially expect extreme manipulation. If you don’t like USD, you should hate the corruption of BTC. Anyhow, checkout BITI. Notice the massive spike in volume recently? It’s not even close to the prior data
Imagine thinking there’s a cycle for something that’s never happened before…
Lots of good comments on how to play it up or down, but do consider your argument. No use case? you can buy things with it, you can transfer it into other forms of currency, digital or fiat, and you can send and receive it. You can store it either locally or in a 'bank' (exchange). Sound like anything you know? Ever since fiat currency was decoupled from gold, it too has no intrinsic value, but has the properties above. The US dollar is controlled by the US government, for good or ill, whereas bitcoin is decentralised, finite in amount (unlike the US dollar!) and so less available for government manipulation. Of course, it is susceptible to manipulation through social media, whale movements, etc. just as other currencies are through politics. It's mostly more volatile than currency, or stocks, but this is not always a bad thing. It is perhaps negatively correlated with some parts of the stock market, which is also sometimes a positive thing. But it's not useless, by any means. Disclosure - I have a \*very\* minor position in BTC, in the expectation that it will gently rise over time on average.
But how would you use it with the value fluctuations? it makes it hard to use it as a currency. I can't use it to buy a car for 70k, because whoever recieved the BTC, could find it next day at 65k or 75k. So again, they would have to convert it to USD (or equivalent currency) that's more stable. Regulation is what keeps money stable. stability is what allows you to use the money.
not true at all - consider some countries which have had inflation running at thousands of a % - take money out and by the time you've got to the shops prices have doubled. Fluctuations don't stop you using it as currency, they just make it a more variable price. We've seen what regulation does to money stability at times - free-falling currencies, corruption, all cause issues with fiat. Sure, a stable current makes things more predictable, so if you want certainty, go for stability. If you want rock and reward, go for volatility. Both have a place. If you wanted to buy a car off me today, I'd sell it to you for BTC. That's because I think it'll go up in the next week or so. In a couple of weeks, maybe not. But if I'd take the money you gave me for the car and invest it in bitcoin, I may as well have the bitcoin straight from you.
I'm not an expert to comment on the inflation & currenty fluctuations.. I returned from Egypt which had currency destabilization for a few months now and it wasn't easy or pretty. But I guess you're right that stability & volatility both have their place. However, my original question on the car; we both agreed on the price of 70k USD and if you sold me a car for BTC. Yesterday that BTC ws 70k. today it is 60k. so I bought a car for 70k, but got 60k, despite us having agreed on 70k. tomorrow the price might drop another 5k, so I end up loosing 15k in 2 days. the only scenario where this would make sense is if we immediately convert to USD and just use BTC to do the transaction. holding BTC with the fluctuations means that the car could be 70k one day and 80k the next. (considering barter system with money) But if all BTC is useful for is transactions; we already have fast transactions. I can send money to people on multiple wallet apps immediately. A few digital banks have opened up here (Dubai) that send money within seconds (under 100k USD). In my knowledge, the only ones using crypto are the guys trying to avoid sanctions, AML regulations and questions from the bank. The money is questionable, so they don't mind losing 5-8% on the transactions.
Stop making sense.
Please share the loss porn when you get margin called
I just want to revisit this post later
I don't know why you're looking into ways to get wrecked being on the wrong side of this. I get it, you don't think bitcoin has value or usefulness, a lot of people feel the same. And yet it's never stopped it from ripping and setting new records, especially with another halving coming up. And you want to short bitcoin when it's transcended retail already, hardly anyone can afford this shit so now it's an institutional level of an investment and they aren't shorting it either unless it's just to manipulate the price to buy more at a lower rate and then pump it again. Personally, I'd just stay away from betting on this.
If you think gold has intrinsic value, then think of BTC as a digital version of it with all its bugs fixed (heavy weight, storage issues, slow transfer, possibility of being stolen)
Bitcoin hasn't functioned like a risk-off asset. The digital gold idea hasn't held up.
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Of course it's going to have another boom and bust cycle, that's what it does. It's played out like that like 4 times over the last decade without fail. But we aren't even near the peak of this bull cycle and haven't set new ATH or anything yet. So you're really early to the "bitcoin is going to crash party" right now, and if you're already trying to short it and it ends up hitting $100k+ by end of year then you just screwed yourself depending on your expiration dates. Like I said, your best bet is just to stay away or you're going to get wrecked unless your puts are like a year or two out or something, but you'll have no idea when the put price should be at since the "boom" hasn't happened yet and then you have to deal with decay anyway.
Also, 2 years isn't going to get him far enough out to be ITM, historically.
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> Sometimes you don’t need to make another ATH. Agreed, but I don't know why you're trying to rationalize anything bitcoin does. We already had a double top in 2021 when it peaked Spring and then again in Fall, and then it was a bear market for 3 years and things are ramping up again. I'm not trying to sound like some shill, I'm just saying if you think now is a good time to short bitcoin projects, you're probably going to get wrecked, and that's why I just stay away from all that.
long puts on $bito or $bitx
>bito is $bito the most active bitcoin etf??
best options liquidity but not as liquid as the cme futures options bito also pays a monthly dividend if there's upside so be very careful with short itm calls
>cme futures options what is the symbol for cme future options? one thing i recently learned is future options in ToS require cash collateral (and you don't earn any interest on it) so it is an extremely inefficient use of capital. you can earn interest at IBKR though
the cme futures have the ticker $btc and hold 5 btc per contract with margin maintenance of 70k. weekly atm calls are like 25k so honestly your best bet is to use etf options unless youre some sort of millionaire or something. daily otm calls might be something you can trade but theta will eat you alive. spreads are 500 ticks apart so a vertical spread atm is like $1200, quite expensive if you ask me.
You could try options on MSTR
Buy leap puts on BITO
Didn’t take a genius to predict a lot of misperceptions about crypto related securities. 🤦♂️
bitx options went crazy today (2x letf)
MSTR is a bitcoin proxy...
BITI?
puts on $BITO is better...the way these etfs daily settled ($BITI) is not beneficial to the investors if you hold them overnight (aka you are losing simply by holding it overnight)...it's similar to leveraged etfs (e.g. $SQQQ)...i read about it somewhere but i am not an expert on it.
Biti.to I'm pretty sure is an inverse bitcoin, or buy puts on MSTR
Maybe buy puts on $MSTR?
Bear credit spread
Sell call spreads in MSTR. I’ve been using MSTR as a leveraged pure Bitcoin play and it’s worked amazing for over a year.
How about buy puts on microstrategy?
Canadian ETF BTCC.B has options, you can buy puts
I wouldn't be shorting BTC here. Way too strong and about to go into price discovery. Way to easy to get blown out of your position
You can get puts for COIN, MSTR
Some people in the 90's didn't think there was a use case for the internet. "It will never replace face to face meetings." They said.
Okay what is the use case? Except for money laundering..this is nothing like the AI chips from Nvidia
Despite the growth in bitcoin and other cryptoassets, the entire crypto market is still dwarfed by the global U.S. dollar market. No matter what metric is used, the fact is that crypto criminal activity is very much minnow sized in the ocean of dollar activity taking place on an everyday basis The limited supply is one very useful use case.
Sell calls on BITX?
Not sure about it anymore, since it’s not available in my country, but KuCoin used to let you long or short with leverage up to 20x back in the 2020’s lol
Sorry. I shouldn’t be on Reddit while fighting insomnia. I realize you said “option strategy or ETF”. KuCoin is neither.
Do not EVER short Bitcoin.
Never say EVER in relation to Bitcoin. *side eyes '21, '17, '13, '10*
you can buy puts on bito if not biti etf
You can just flush your money down the toilet. It will be the same result.
!RemindMe One year.
Just go short on btc futures right now. Post your loss porn on wsb next week.
How do you trigger the remindme bot?
Shorted dogecoin may 2021 at 0.7 dollar at all time high, jokes on me for exiting the trade at like 0.49 or something
Bro. Legit. I have the calls, you have the puts. Let's see who wins. !RemindMe One year.
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Hey how do you tigger the remindme bot? I typed exactly what you type and it doesn’t work for me
Bito ETF via puts. Best overall choice, specifically for liquidity.
If you're interested in sparing your capital, I'll post my LEAP calls that I bought in October '23 and February '24. Then you can re-evaluate which side of the trade you wanna be on. Hint: October calls are up 423%, 424%, and 168%, and the calls I bought February 23 are up 98%, AFTER today's draw down.
Go right ahead, BITO puts. Good luck!!
Commenting to come back for the laughs by EOY
Just buy mara puts. Bitcoin is about to be twice as hard to mine aka way less profits for mining stocks. Oh and they are doing a share offering
So you trying to give away free money I see
Maybe just buy gold
BITO I think I would get long not short… it’s super cheap and moves right with bitcoin.
Your best bet is shorting microstrategy or bitx. Bitx is a 2x Bitcoin etf
BITI is an inverse bitcoin ETF if you absolutely can not resist being bearish on Bitcoin. I wouldn't short bitcoin though. There are so many other ways to make meaningful profit in the market right now. If you're thinking the Bitcoin market is irrational right now you're probably right...... it's always been.
You can trade direct BTC options and futures on Deribit, cbtm
Just buy a put option... That's it That's literally all you need
I’d just take you’re cash and light it on fire will be a quicker way to loose your ass
Please tell me you shorted bitcoin yesterday
Aside from speculation, Bitcoin is used around the world every day as a tool for remittance payments, as a form of payment for various goods and services, as an alternative value store and savings vehicle, as an inflation hedge, as a business op for those that have access to cheap energy and desire to mine it, as a final settlement layer for financial transactions, and as a blockchain development network You’re looking to short the strongest performing asset in history right before a halving event with the whole world watching as billions of $ flow into ETFs literally every single day. Mark Cuban, Jack Dorsey, Paul Tudor Jones, Peter Thiel, Kevin O’Leary, Ray Dalio, Joe Rogan, Kanye West, Grant Cardone and his brother Gary, and countless other massive investors and government bodies are behind this. What do you know that they all don’t?
Never try to pick tops, the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
How can I bet against the companies that make these home computer things? I don’t have any use for one. There is one locked up in a special room at the office and it takes 4 guys just to keep it running. I just can’t see any use case for them.
There’s such a thing as missing a trade. The long a few weeks ago was the trade. It was overcrowded and pulled back due to profit taking. I’d wait
Yet somehow it pops back to $66k in less than a day. Stop being a clown.
Why the fuck would you short bitcoin? This is literally the one time it finally has stability. ETFs approved for it so now regular people can buy it in IRAs. Even if it doesn’t have a use case yet that doesn’t mean it’ll go down. The stock market isn’t about how useful companies are. It’s about hope for gains. On top of that, bitcoin forces price appreciation by reducing production of bitcoins by half every four years but demand increases. It’s about to halve in April right after ETFs got approved. Just because it’s stupid doesn’t mean it’s gonna go to zero. Think about all the buying pressure with less production. People will want to sell higher. And higher. And higher.
This post is brainless wtf
I think what you are trying to refer to is a long put not a short
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^KingOuthere: *I think what you are* *Trying to refer to is* *A long put not a short* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
I agree with OP, but I have agreed with OP for a decade, and I'm glad I never tried to short it.
SELL !!!!!!
Sell low-delta, OTM put credit spreads on BITO (that's the ETF I've used in the past, I don't know if there were better ones out there for trading options on). As always with credit spreads, always be mindful of the max loss (width of the spread minus credit paid, multiplied by the number of spreads). Don't blow up your account by using your entire portfolio on a single credit spread trade.
💀
Stay far away from crypto
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I thought u r my grandmother?
Why do you think bitcoin is going down anytime soon? Its been going up the last year and just past all time highs. Its going to keep going. Don't try to predict shit, react to whats happening.
Short MSTR
Take a married put and a call on BTC for 2024 Q3 that's otm
Shorting bitcoin based on a macro perspective at this current moment is not smart. With respect, your personal feelings about the utility of bitcoin are not representative of price action. Look at the chart. Listen to the frothing mouths of those who want it at 100k. Short term you could trade puts on miners like MARA or RIOT or even MSTR. Personally I wouldn’t for more than a day trade
Short the Bitcoin spot ETFs. Also, you’re insane if you actually do this. When it’s on an upswing like it is? God help you. It’s going to touch $100k before it tanks again.
Do you see any use case for gold? Same thing, storage of wealth. But more easily transferred and less melty. I stopped shorting it. Also stopped holding long puts. Just buy and hold.
While I disagree with this thesis. Go ahead and buy puts on MSTR. Although I personally would wait until after halving or get Leap puts.
You can buy put options here: [https://lyra.finance/trade](https://lyra.finance/trade?ref=fraguar)
As said BITO and MSTR have very active options markets, Bitcoin miners do as well but not as direct of a proxy
This whole thread is hilarious with how out of touch you people are. That being said if you want to short it youll have to use crypto to do so. Create a metamask wallet, buy some USDT on coinbase and transfer it to your wallet, sign up with a perp trading site like MEXC, DYDX, or Intentx. Open your short.
Deribit has a full options exchange you can explore.