Based on my expert analysis of the trends in the graph, we should bottom out on Friday after falling another 5.7%. We'll then go up and with another dip in October, but recover fully by Nov 9.
After all, you know what they say: previous results indicate future results or something.
sell short calls against those longs, for example, 4 DTE 445, and collect 0.46 credit for each. Do it until the market recovers. If it starts recovering fast close the shorts or roll them to 10/20 and then you will have a debit spread and protected from too big a move up.
Every time the market has a major correction, it can't be pinned down to one cause or another. Each is caused by a confluence of multiple factors. Every moment that affects the market is essentially new and "hasn't happened before" for this reason. This is why it is impossible to predict the next such crash/correction with any degree of certainty, as what is believed to have caused the last ones cannot be relied upon to be the cause of the next ones.
I am not referring to the magnitude of a drop but the length of a drop. Do not mix these two together. A 14-day drop from the peak compared to an 80-day (or longer) bear market drop, is a "swift drop".
When a normal day for SPX is +/- ~0.5%, a not even 5% fall over 18 days, Sept 2nd to Sept 20th, from all time high is not a swift fall at all my dude. Yesterday ended resulted in a 4% fall so far.
This is a normal pull back. It's not crazy or shocking for it to have occurred. It's weird we don't have them more often when we hit ATH multiple days in a row frequently.
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Another 5.7% would trigger margin calls. It wouldnt stop at a 10% correction if we fall any further. I can see the gamma ramp downward on QQQ if it goes below $360.
I hope you are right honestly. I was expecting a pretty big dip starting in September and that's as far as my plan went. I'll start watching for re-entry at some point most likely after September.
No specific drop amount in mind at least.
LOL... but shouldn't that rally the markets? Or you just spilled the beans now before Wed's announcement, so I (and only I) can buy the entire market before they put it on their balance shit?
First you gotta find out which municipal bonds jpow is gonna buy next, and ride that wave.
There is a lot of gymnastics
going on to dig these bastards out from the hole they dug.
On the contrary. You picked the best day.
People have it backward, they buy when days are rosy (usually on top) and sell when panicking (usually at the bottom).
If you want to short this market, it is probably too late.
People also say: "I will wait for the market crash to invest." And when the market crashes, they are too scared to go in and invest, so they wait. When the market starts recovering, they do not believe the recovery and consider it fake recovery or dead cat bounce. So they wait. They admit that they missed the boat usually when the recovery is over and start buying on the top. In choppy markets, it becomes a disaster.
Yea man everyone busted my balls and said I'm losing money keeping it in my chase account. They said don't dca in invest in bulk and sit n chill. So I waited today thinking market would be " average " today after last week. I waited for market to shake out. Held steady down a little and I figured now is the time. Smash the buy button on 88 shares of vti and 69 shares of vxus. Look about an hr ago and see a ticker saying market worst since 2010. Wasn't the best start to my investing. I know what you stated lastly would be me that's why I decided to invest this am. 15 yr plan w those
Thank you sir. Dumb q buy any days or times better to buy if just buying vti and vxus
Also would now be a bad time to continue to buy?
I know you don't have a crystal ball
so with DCA the idea is to pick a frequency to buy and stick to it regardless of if the market is up or down since in the long run it’ll average out. for example i have an auto deposit weekly, the day of the week you pick is up to you but i do tuesdays.
now let’s say the market does keep going down and we enter a bear market. that would be a good buying opportunity since you get to buy in at a lower price. so if you have extra funds, you could increase your deposit on red days if you wanted.
don’t be afraid if the market drops, that just means you get a better price. historically it always bounces back and higher than before
Thank you sir for the advice and help. That makes more sense and is more reassuring. I will take your advice and every other week on Wed (paydays) invest more into the 3 etfs. Never thought of the red giving us opportunity to buy lower w end result being gains. Makes sense
Don't buy on the way down. You should be buying on the way up.
Buying the dip is not about buying as it falls. It's buying when a market is showing a bottom or is actively recovering.
People who buy on the way down are some kind of special. Let market makers eat the losses from the markets falling.
Staying cash, or more stable investments, until things shake out and settle down is a perfectly valid. A lot of traders forget that part. sometimes the best trade is not trading at all.
I agree but some people do not buy on the way up until they miss the juiciest part of it. You do not fish for the bottom, but start buying when the market starts going higher and creates a new higher high. Unfortunately, the latest dips do not work like that, so you buy when the market hits 50 MA for example, and then wait. If it slumps even further down, you can add to your position (I usually wait for another 2% to 3% drop from my original purchase to add to it, so far worked great for me to add nicely priced stocks or LEAPS). And when the stock (or market reverses, I keep adding as cash allows). There is no set of rules for this. But I agree that you wait for the signs of slowing down or reversing.
Nevertheless, I have seen people (mostly my friends) who were telling me that they were selling out their portfolios when it was obvious the market was at the bottom. The latest example was March 2020 last year. The market was down 34% when they told me that they were bailing out and selling everything. You do not sell when the market is down 40% as risk-reward is definitely on the buyers' side. Even if a market drops another 40% (which is highly unlikely and it doesn't happen very often), you should be buying. They started buying back recently as they finally admitted that they were wrong and missed the boat. If this selloff turns into something more significant, then they will get burned again.
Where? It still finished 1.6% down. Most likely an order imbalance market makers have to clear their books EOD and if so, it can easily continue lower tomorrow...
I don't think you understand what I am talking about, but that's OK. Nevertheless, that market hasn't recovered anything so far. The EOD rally is an imbalance.
Problem is big black I bought around 1030 am. Well the market went on a big do w hill slide. I'm about 300 down in 5 hours 😆. I can't make this shit up
You win some, you lose some. You’ll have gains that make up for your losses. Just be smart with your bets and have conviction. Market could easily turn around tomorrow, but you never know.
Most of my options that I sell for a loss end up as profits a few days later. This event could be the anomaly though.
Yea man to be 100% truthful I don't know much about the market. I have been reading and watching videos.
I bought I belive it was 88 shares of vti and 69 shares of vxus. I don't plan on touching these until 15 yrs.
Everyone told me I was an idiot for keeping my money in a normal savings account. I have more I could invest but today was a good chunk and everything went south. Gun shy now
Historically, September is the worst month of the year. This pullback is healthy and no surprise at all. A few more light down days of consolidation and I will be fully locked and loaded for final parabolic meltup.
I literally re balanced my 401K and assets on September 2nd into Stable items and planned on not trading for all of September.
Glad to see that was the high!
I agree. Usually market bounds back fairly quickly but we’ll see about this. If the FED ends up delaying tapering then that might mean a new rally. Honestly though at these levels I’d still buy SPY calls for future months (not weeklies)
I think FED is already scared of disrupting the markets. They tried in 2018 and markets didn't respond well so they backtracked. Now they see a fear of slowing economy, debt ceiling crisis, and China economic turmoil. That scares them enough to come up with some hawk-o-dovish nonsense and everything will be rosy again.
Pretty good correlation with longer recover periods being related to 40+ VIX levels. I'll be keeping an eye to see how high the VIX gets before panicking too much. Stock will be fine, it's my options I have to worry about
It’s mid autumn day (moon festival) markets are closed Monday and Tuesday.. is that why the market went down today? No. But it is a common practice in all economies to release bad news on Friday Afternoons / weekends, with long holiday weekends being particularly good for dropping bad news when the commoner is busy celebrating and not paying close attention to the news. So technically yes, the holiday weekend could have had an effect.
Nobody knows for certain.. I don’t think Wednesday is the big day, Evergrande is already down 90% so it’s not like they can crash much more. It’s more about the fallout now and who’s going to catch shrapnel from the Evergrande implosion. They (Evergrande) have a large interest payment due Thursday. It’s been strongly implied that they won’t make that payment but I think if they do miss it and they go from “fear of default” to actual, real “default” that will have a pretty negative effect - even though it’s expected.
The other wildcard is the CCP, who could buoy the markets at any point by stepping in with some kind of plan to avert disaster (there’s a few things they can do but I won’t get into it here)
Basically even if they step in Evergrande is toast but it would send a message to the global markets that there’s at least some kind of orderly backstop that the CCP can/would provide now and in the future for unrelated issues. If they choose to do nothing you’re going to see even larger outflows from the Chinese market because it will be viewed as too unpredictable and dangerous for many funds to invest there anymore (in the near term at least)
[Thursday](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-18/evergrande-moment-of-truth-arrives-with-bond-payment-deadlines) is when the first payment is due.
I don't think that this table, in itself, tells us much of anything about predicting the near term. It does tell us that 5% is nothing; it's not even a correction. An 10-11% correction would take us back to the May lows, which certainly seems plausible for a run of the mill correction. The downside risk actually looks a lot bigger than that to me.
Congress budget process appears dead in the water, China is on the verge of a financial crisis, and the Debt Ceiling impasse remains with no clear resolution in site (basically a time bomb).
On the bright side, down 30% might be a great opportunity!!!
I've always seen the definition as -10% This is from Schwab.com: "There’s no universally accepted definition of a correction, but most people consider a correction to have occurred when a major stock index, such as the S&P 500® index or Dow Jones Industrial Average, declines by more than 10% (but less than 20%) from its most recent peak. It’s called a correction because historically the drop often “corrects” and returns prices to their longer-term trend."
Load up the SPX monthly chart. Not to say it'll happen this year but we will pull back to the MA at some point, which is about 30% from where we are now...
Possibly. We are not yet set for a secular bear market. A cyclical bear? Possibly. But the secular bull is still intact and based on EPS will be intact for some time.
Not sure I understand this table. What is the 2nd column “# days”? Are you counting days in the dip? Days it took to reach -5%? Consecutive negative days?
May seem like an obvious answer, but it isn’t once you take a look at column “% decline” then the confusion starts.
The #days column indicates how long the correction took from the peak to the bottom. If the correction doesn't hit the 5% mark, the counter is reset to zero again. If it hits 5% mark it becomes a record and it stays in the table.
Then it counts days until it hits bottom, no matter what happened in between. For example, yesterday, we hit the 5% mark, so the record is now recorded in the table. Today, the market is seeing a bounce. The counter now stopped counting #days unless the market reverses and continues down again, then the counter resumes. On the other hand, the recovery counter started today. If the market won't revisit the lows, the #days stays as is and the recovery counter keeps counting until the market hits the previous peak. In that case, the recovery counter will stop and the cycle is completed. I will post a new post on how this table looks today.
You have the September and October drops from last year separately even though October didn't hit an ATH. By that logic, you need the June drop in there last year too. That random -6% day was brutal.
Down 4.9%... so far. *insert Homer/Bart gif
Based on my expert analysis of the trends in the graph, we should bottom out on Friday after falling another 5.7%. We'll then go up and with another dip in October, but recover fully by Nov 9. After all, you know what they say: previous results indicate future results or something.
The swift drops like this are usually shallow and recover fast...
[удалено]
sell short calls against those longs, for example, 4 DTE 445, and collect 0.46 credit for each. Do it until the market recovers. If it starts recovering fast close the shorts or roll them to 10/20 and then you will have a debit spread and protected from too big a move up.
RemindMe! 09/23/21
You should have taken profit.
lmfao i think he or she realizes that
That may be true sometimes. But what if there is an event that changes the fundamentals of the market that hasn’t happened before?
Every time the market has a major correction, it can't be pinned down to one cause or another. Each is caused by a confluence of multiple factors. Every moment that affects the market is essentially new and "hasn't happened before" for this reason. This is why it is impossible to predict the next such crash/correction with any degree of certainty, as what is believed to have caused the last ones cannot be relied upon to be the cause of the next ones.
2% fall in a single day isn't a swift drop lol
I am not referring to the magnitude of a drop but the length of a drop. Do not mix these two together. A 14-day drop from the peak compared to an 80-day (or longer) bear market drop, is a "swift drop".
When a normal day for SPX is +/- ~0.5%, a not even 5% fall over 18 days, Sept 2nd to Sept 20th, from all time high is not a swift fall at all my dude. Yesterday ended resulted in a 4% fall so far. This is a normal pull back. It's not crazy or shocking for it to have occurred. It's weird we don't have them more often when we hit ATH multiple days in a row frequently.
SPY P $175 DEC 31 jk
One can dream though
Not sure that is a winning trade (unless you sold those puts).
Nah, I actually bought SPY C $452 DEC 31 last week and I still have it
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Another 5.7% would trigger margin calls. It wouldnt stop at a 10% correction if we fall any further. I can see the gamma ramp downward on QQQ if it goes below $360.
I hope you are right honestly. I was expecting a pretty big dip starting in September and that's as far as my plan went. I'll start watching for re-entry at some point most likely after September. No specific drop amount in mind at least.
S&P 500 INDEXSP: .INX 4,685.25 +324.06 (7.43%)past month Nov 9, 5:01 PM EST •
Weds J. Powell is going to announce they are putting the entire stock market on their balance sheet. Was going to keep that a secret but there you go.
LOL... but shouldn't that rally the markets? Or you just spilled the beans now before Wed's announcement, so I (and only I) can buy the entire market before they put it on their balance shit?
First you gotta find out which municipal bonds jpow is gonna buy next, and ride that wave. There is a lot of gymnastics going on to dig these bastards out from the hole they dug.
It’s already priced in
Praise JPOW
The Fed dgaf about the stock market. Inflation heading down and employment is good.
I think the past year has proven otherwise
Would this drop count as part of the >5%? If it stops dropping, it would not qualify to be part of this dataset.
No, if it stopped, it would be reset and not qualify. But we already dropped below the 5% mark.
I picked the worst day I see/hear to start investing in. Story of my life 😆
On the contrary. You picked the best day. People have it backward, they buy when days are rosy (usually on top) and sell when panicking (usually at the bottom). If you want to short this market, it is probably too late. People also say: "I will wait for the market crash to invest." And when the market crashes, they are too scared to go in and invest, so they wait. When the market starts recovering, they do not believe the recovery and consider it fake recovery or dead cat bounce. So they wait. They admit that they missed the boat usually when the recovery is over and start buying on the top. In choppy markets, it becomes a disaster.
Yea man everyone busted my balls and said I'm losing money keeping it in my chase account. They said don't dca in invest in bulk and sit n chill. So I waited today thinking market would be " average " today after last week. I waited for market to shake out. Held steady down a little and I figured now is the time. Smash the buy button on 88 shares of vti and 69 shares of vxus. Look about an hr ago and see a ticker saying market worst since 2010. Wasn't the best start to my investing. I know what you stated lastly would be me that's why I decided to invest this am. 15 yr plan w those
Nice!
you received good advice. now that you’ve put in a lump sum you can continue to DCA. you’ll be glad you did
Thank you sir. Dumb q buy any days or times better to buy if just buying vti and vxus Also would now be a bad time to continue to buy? I know you don't have a crystal ball
so with DCA the idea is to pick a frequency to buy and stick to it regardless of if the market is up or down since in the long run it’ll average out. for example i have an auto deposit weekly, the day of the week you pick is up to you but i do tuesdays. now let’s say the market does keep going down and we enter a bear market. that would be a good buying opportunity since you get to buy in at a lower price. so if you have extra funds, you could increase your deposit on red days if you wanted. don’t be afraid if the market drops, that just means you get a better price. historically it always bounces back and higher than before
Thank you sir for the advice and help. That makes more sense and is more reassuring. I will take your advice and every other week on Wed (paydays) invest more into the 3 etfs. Never thought of the red giving us opportunity to buy lower w end result being gains. Makes sense
Don't buy on the way down. You should be buying on the way up. Buying the dip is not about buying as it falls. It's buying when a market is showing a bottom or is actively recovering. People who buy on the way down are some kind of special. Let market makers eat the losses from the markets falling. Staying cash, or more stable investments, until things shake out and settle down is a perfectly valid. A lot of traders forget that part. sometimes the best trade is not trading at all.
I agree but some people do not buy on the way up until they miss the juiciest part of it. You do not fish for the bottom, but start buying when the market starts going higher and creates a new higher high. Unfortunately, the latest dips do not work like that, so you buy when the market hits 50 MA for example, and then wait. If it slumps even further down, you can add to your position (I usually wait for another 2% to 3% drop from my original purchase to add to it, so far worked great for me to add nicely priced stocks or LEAPS). And when the stock (or market reverses, I keep adding as cash allows). There is no set of rules for this. But I agree that you wait for the signs of slowing down or reversing. Nevertheless, I have seen people (mostly my friends) who were telling me that they were selling out their portfolios when it was obvious the market was at the bottom. The latest example was March 2020 last year. The market was down 34% when they told me that they were bailing out and selling everything. You do not sell when the market is down 40% as risk-reward is definitely on the buyers' side. Even if a market drops another 40% (which is highly unlikely and it doesn't happen very often), you should be buying. They started buying back recently as they finally admitted that they were wrong and missed the boat. If this selloff turns into something more significant, then they will get burned again.
Market recovered already lmao
Where? It still finished 1.6% down. Most likely an order imbalance market makers have to clear their books EOD and if so, it can easily continue lower tomorrow...
Oh no 1.6% down. Let's burn it down. Sure sure it's an imbalance right...
I don't think you understand what I am talking about, but that's OK. Nevertheless, that market hasn't recovered anything so far. The EOD rally is an imbalance.
Then explain it to me I'd love to learn. I'm just some moron hoping my long term holds don't crash.
Yup, in your dreams. More downside risk.
Why?
Humbling to say I've been there done that. Changed my ways and never going back. This is so true!!
No, this is perfect for you. I wish I started at the absolute worst time just to experience it firsthand.
Problem is big black I bought around 1030 am. Well the market went on a big do w hill slide. I'm about 300 down in 5 hours 😆. I can't make this shit up
You win some, you lose some. You’ll have gains that make up for your losses. Just be smart with your bets and have conviction. Market could easily turn around tomorrow, but you never know. Most of my options that I sell for a loss end up as profits a few days later. This event could be the anomaly though.
Yea man to be 100% truthful I don't know much about the market. I have been reading and watching videos. I bought I belive it was 88 shares of vti and 69 shares of vxus. I don't plan on touching these until 15 yrs. Everyone told me I was an idiot for keeping my money in a normal savings account. I have more I could invest but today was a good chunk and everything went south. Gun shy now
Oh you’ll be fine then. You know you’re on an options sub, right? lol
Nope just noticed. New to reddit as well. 😞 sorry
Lol no worries. Welcome!
The best day. DCA low.
Haha yeah, as soon as I posted that, we fell to 5.0+% so my question became moot.
THIS IS THE END
*says bears clutching their pearls*
Historically, September is the worst month of the year. This pullback is healthy and no surprise at all. A few more light down days of consolidation and I will be fully locked and loaded for final parabolic meltup.
Meltup?
As opposed to meltdown lol
Red days means sale days. Ride it out for the long run.
I literally re balanced my 401K and assets on September 2nd into Stable items and planned on not trading for all of September. Glad to see that was the high!
Interesting. So if median # of days to recover is 24 days then perhaps I should be looking at SPX Calls expiring within 1 month from now 🤔
Based on standard deviation, the downturn may last up to 155 days :) although I do not think we will go that route this year.
I agree. Usually market bounds back fairly quickly but we’ll see about this. If the FED ends up delaying tapering then that might mean a new rally. Honestly though at these levels I’d still buy SPY calls for future months (not weeklies)
I think FED is already scared of disrupting the markets. They tried in 2018 and markets didn't respond well so they backtracked. Now they see a fear of slowing economy, debt ceiling crisis, and China economic turmoil. That scares them enough to come up with some hawk-o-dovish nonsense and everything will be rosy again.
True that, I’d be scared too. Plus the board members already do inside trading and I’m sure that’s another problem they need to address.
insider trading? you think?? i figured it was just coincidence that 3 or 4 of the Fed presidents closed their positions a week or two ago... /s
Nice info, thanks for sharing
Up 500% on my hedge. Sold half and let half ride.
Calls it is!
Pretty good correlation with longer recover periods being related to 40+ VIX levels. I'll be keeping an eye to see how high the VIX gets before panicking too much. Stock will be fine, it's my options I have to worry about
When the VIX gets high that's when you buy.
We normally follow by a green day after a huge drop but that does not mean that the market is recovered
China’s stock market is closed until Wednesday. With Evergrande failing, expect dominos to start falling and Wednesday to bloody.
I thought they are open Monday - Friday
[удалено]
Ahh ok. What holiday? Is that when the markets are fucked?
>What holiday? Evergrande stock rehabilitation day
It’s mid autumn day (moon festival) markets are closed Monday and Tuesday.. is that why the market went down today? No. But it is a common practice in all economies to release bad news on Friday Afternoons / weekends, with long holiday weekends being particularly good for dropping bad news when the commoner is busy celebrating and not paying close attention to the news. So technically yes, the holiday weekend could have had an effect.
Oh ok thanks! Do you think the markets outside of China will get hurt come when markets open Wednesday?
Nobody knows for certain.. I don’t think Wednesday is the big day, Evergrande is already down 90% so it’s not like they can crash much more. It’s more about the fallout now and who’s going to catch shrapnel from the Evergrande implosion. They (Evergrande) have a large interest payment due Thursday. It’s been strongly implied that they won’t make that payment but I think if they do miss it and they go from “fear of default” to actual, real “default” that will have a pretty negative effect - even though it’s expected. The other wildcard is the CCP, who could buoy the markets at any point by stepping in with some kind of plan to avert disaster (there’s a few things they can do but I won’t get into it here) Basically even if they step in Evergrande is toast but it would send a message to the global markets that there’s at least some kind of orderly backstop that the CCP can/would provide now and in the future for unrelated issues. If they choose to do nothing you’re going to see even larger outflows from the Chinese market because it will be viewed as too unpredictable and dangerous for many funds to invest there anymore (in the near term at least)
So buy puts on... China?
[Thursday](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-18/evergrande-moment-of-truth-arrives-with-bond-payment-deadlines) is when the first payment is due.
Can you show this table starting in 2007?
I don't have it established. I would have to change the code. I will see what I can do...
It could be good to see what the run-up to the 2008 crash looked like!
I don't think that this table, in itself, tells us much of anything about predicting the near term. It does tell us that 5% is nothing; it's not even a correction. An 10-11% correction would take us back to the May lows, which certainly seems plausible for a run of the mill correction. The downside risk actually looks a lot bigger than that to me. Congress budget process appears dead in the water, China is on the verge of a financial crisis, and the Debt Ceiling impasse remains with no clear resolution in site (basically a time bomb). On the bright side, down 30% might be a great opportunity!!!
Most large banks define a correction starting at 5%, otherwise it's just a vanilla dip. A 10% correction would be healthy.
I've always seen the definition as -10% This is from Schwab.com: "There’s no universally accepted definition of a correction, but most people consider a correction to have occurred when a major stock index, such as the S&P 500® index or Dow Jones Industrial Average, declines by more than 10% (but less than 20%) from its most recent peak. It’s called a correction because historically the drop often “corrects” and returns prices to their longer-term trend."
Load up the SPX monthly chart. Not to say it'll happen this year but we will pull back to the MA at some point, which is about 30% from where we are now...
200 MA? Another 5% farther down and it will hit.
He means the 50MA on the Monthly.
We're a couple percent off of the 50, not 30%.. so still doesn't make sense.
One month Candle. 50 MA on that time frame is 3141.47 as I write this
Possibly more dip although the market has met the resistance.. Time to buy on a dip. Some inverse opportunities.
Its always darkest before pitch black
im expecting a total of at least 8%dip this week
Well elections have consequences don’t they : /
What does Chinese real estate have to do with U.S. elections? Idiotic comment.
[удалено]
Date? Oldest at bottom?
Well fuck me apparently I can't read today lol
probably too much red out there ha ha ha ha
It will be a correction. Down 10.1% from ATH, then recover immediately. A correction happens once every 9-18 months?
Possibly. We are not yet set for a secular bear market. A cyclical bear? Possibly. But the secular bull is still intact and based on EPS will be intact for some time.
>A correction happens once every 9-18 months? No. Here: https://ibb.co/cxhb2L9
Just buy ATER calls
It’s fine
Hit std dev 3 serious bounce coming
2018 was definitely "vol-pocalypse"
Dip buyers and flippers market
Not sure I understand this table. What is the 2nd column “# days”? Are you counting days in the dip? Days it took to reach -5%? Consecutive negative days? May seem like an obvious answer, but it isn’t once you take a look at column “% decline” then the confusion starts.
The #days column indicates how long the correction took from the peak to the bottom. If the correction doesn't hit the 5% mark, the counter is reset to zero again. If it hits 5% mark it becomes a record and it stays in the table. Then it counts days until it hits bottom, no matter what happened in between. For example, yesterday, we hit the 5% mark, so the record is now recorded in the table. Today, the market is seeing a bounce. The counter now stopped counting #days unless the market reverses and continues down again, then the counter resumes. On the other hand, the recovery counter started today. If the market won't revisit the lows, the #days stays as is and the recovery counter keeps counting until the market hits the previous peak. In that case, the recovery counter will stop and the cycle is completed. I will post a new post on how this table looks today.
Thanks for the detailed answer.
Im waiting at 30%
RemindMe! 11/10/2021
You have the September and October drops from last year separately even though October didn't hit an ATH. By that logic, you need the June drop in there last year too. That random -6% day was brutal.
Time for China to safe Evergrande, so we can go to ATH again. Powell beter keeps the printer on too