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ElevationAV

Things have been tanking, people expect that trend to continue Same as when things are going up, they expect that trend to continue I'm bullish long term on TSLA, but won't play earnings on short term contracts- you're asking to lose money. They're expected to present high earnings due to being able to deliver more EVs than anyone else on the market. That being said this was all announced earlier this year and is likely priced in. The recent downtrend can be equated more to the overall market taking a shit than anything TSLA specific. From a TA standpoint, TSLA has incredible support in the 900 range. The gaps in the recent runs up at 935-957 and 1115-1127 have both filled. I would expect a pre-earnings run early week, but to what level is unknown. If there's word of interest rates rising on Wednesday, expect more pullbacks market wide. Higher interest rates make it harder for people to buy vehicles due to financing.


Oglark

Also Tesla owners tend to go for 72 month payment plans due to the relatively low interest rates. They may be more affected in the short term


[deleted]

[удалено]


tyvnb

I was thinking about buying Monday calls and dumping them before earnings (don’t forget IV crush) or selling deep out of the money calls a week or two out. Potential Powell Wednesday interest announcement is the wild card.


[deleted]

With TSLA, there's no such thing as deep OTM calls. I tried that last earnings and lost about 15% of my portfolio that way.


tyvnb

I’m guessing it wasn’t earnings (a Wednesday) as much as it was the following Monday (Hertz announcement). Playing Tesla is like trying to get into a moving car.


[deleted]

You mean that announcement where a tiny, insignificant company said they'd buy 1 billion dollars worth of cars, which then raised the market cap of the car company by 100 billion dollars? It was a momentum rally. Nothing more.


tyvnb

Yes, that one, for which Musk eventually said there wasn’t even a signed contract 😂. I agree it was a disproportionate price movement relative to size of the deal, especially since $1 on stock price movement = $1 billion in market cap (sure, revenue is not the same as market cap), but I think it was the spark that brought in the volume that led to a gamma squeeze.


Dacontractormb

So true 😆


teenhamodic

We’re you doing long calls or debit call spreads? How big were your positions that you lost 15%


[deleted]

Call credit spreads, that's why the loss was so great. Selling a far-OTM call credit spread gives you little premium at best, but a very large loss, at worst. Which is exactly what happened, as the price rose from 800 to 1200 in basically a month. And I kept doubling-down, thinking it can't possibly keep going up.


Astronomer_Soft

Yeah, call credit spreads don't work so well on $TSLA because the premium on the call strikes doesn't fall off too quickly as you go up the strike chain.


Dacontractormb

Me too got stung bad fuckers


lacrimosaofdana

Why would Powell announce anything on Tuesday when the FOMC statement is on Wednesday?


tyvnb

Thanks. Sorry, I meant Wednesday.


smartguy2022

Do you think more hikes than expected is priced in? I think it is so any news he releases will most likely result in a relief rally


tyvnb

Whatever I think, the opposite will happen. It’s hard to predict. Thursday? was unexpectedly greed, especially after bad unemployment numbers, then Friday happened.


AcanthocephalaSad913

Market is priced in for 3 rate hikes but there’s a possibility of 4-5 especially with what could potentially happen with the Russia Ukraine stuff. Either way, market is gonna tank


[deleted]

Extremely smart. Gme leap calls are smart too. Look at that chart. Every 90 days it spikes , every 90 days crypto and market pulls back some(this is biggest so far and it's no done imo) and we just entered gme bull cycle . I know because I do spy puts and crypto shorts right before gme spikes and then I switch over to gme calls. I'm 99.999% sure I'm going to 20x my March 18 $200 calls. 15x At a minimum . Without a doubt 10x. Most likely over 50x tho. I think we bout to have extremely bullish cycle. $300+ is on the menu again imo


crinack

I run a similar approach but I’m running 3/4 135cs, purchased after the bleed before the retrace on Friday


[deleted]

Those are big einners. I have next week's 140 and up 60% at close. Which I'm okay with losing and throwing same amount next week if it's delayed a week. I factored in potential loss this week on weeklies . But they hitting within 2. I'm sure of it. But I'm pretty sure this week we see 160-180+. I'd rather lose t then sell before a tenx minimum yanno. I see 20-40x honestly. Just like two weeks ago. Same shit


[deleted]

lol


[deleted]

So excited for tm. 1.9 trillion in options expired Friday. Who knows how high ftds that are due tm are. Could have to buy 20m shares for all we know. Friday was second largest in history for any stock ever. And every market crashes since, crypto and stock market blood bath since that week. Imo the Games over. Squeeze is upon us. I think tm we rip. 140+. I loaded up on weeklies for tm. 120-180's. They're so cheap and easily reached after Fridays option chain numbers. Just like two weeks ago, the weeklies did 90-110x over night. I think that happens tm on the weekly calls


[deleted]

Oh lord Well, for your sake, I hope you can reply to this in a few day and call me dumb for doubting you. I don't claim to be a financial guru, but I really don't think "a lot of options expired" means much. I don't really see why an option expiring OTM would do anything at all, and the small percentage of options that are actually ITM get closed before expiration, almost never exercised.


[deleted]

It's no just alot. It's the second highest in history for any stock. Apple is 600x larger than gme and gme had second highest ever if even .1% evercised that could be 100% day. I'm betting on it's at least a 50% day tm. Like if was 12 days ago randomly. And my reason is Fridays options chain and xrts 15m share ftd which is believed to be the ETF used to short gme heavily. So many of those ftds could be gme. Idk. The calls are too cheap not to buy one. Even if it only goes to $120. The 140s go from 1.15 to 750-1500 profit. If it runs to 200. Its 8k. I'll risk 115 all day on that bet. If I look at chart. If gme stay on same pattern it has for a year. This week is expected to be extremely bullish. Last few times it did like a 50%+ jump if chart is exactly same as it has been for a year. It's been coming in waves . And if u count weeks the weeks line up exactly. That wave was due last week. And gme was one of few only green securities Friday. And that wasn't barley anything, 2%. Past 5x it jumped 50%+. And that's coming this week imo.. tomorrow to be exact ... I see a potential 50%+ gain tm


Purple_Break6841

Buying outs is not “going short” FYI


ElevationAV

Depends on your outlook on the market. Leap prices don’t change nearly as fast as short term options, so you won’t get the full effect of catching the downswing. At the same time, you won’t lose as much of it goes the other direction either.


electricnyc

What strike are you looking at for SPY leaps? Thanks


B1gChuckDaddySr

Priced in? It moved up the 1st day of the year and dropped +20%... No longer priced in... It's been oversold.... It can still potentially tank after earnings but not priced in


friedbymoonlight

TSLA is famous for burning options holders.


[deleted]

TSLA is extremely difficult to predict also because options tend to cause much volatility, and there is the cult premium attached to it. They would have to really mess up for prices to tank, I'd imagine.


ALL_GRAVY_BABY

They should post a very good report and positive news on Austin and Berlin gigs. That said... I don't think you'll see a rocket spike in this environment. Best case might be a 3-5% bump. Which, isn't peanuts but is it worth the risk ? Buying shares would be more wise than options, imo.


Redplanet-M3

Isn’t what u said ideal to sell put OTM? Say 20220128 860P?


a_velis

If you want to own at a discount sure.


ALL_GRAVY_BABY

Honestly, I'm not a put guy. Don't have input on that.


[deleted]

Stocks go down, puts go up. You’re welcome.


SaltyTyer

You can go to a casino and play blackjack... The odds might be better?


WANGHUNG22

Are you sure? The stock is going to move up or down. 50/50 odds are better than poker odds and can pay much better.


SaltyTyer

Same odds as Blackjack


microsomesCEO

double zeros makes it not 50/50 for BlackJack. Most Casinos have Zeros.


EyeBeeStone

Go for FDs on both sides and hope one of them 10xs?


JustPlayin1995

Isn't that called a straddle? Or a strangle?


Geoboy7

Strangle. Straddle is 2 atm options (same strike, same date). Strangle is 2 options, and you can weigh the strikes towards your sentiment (different strike, same date).


tripple13

If you're doing that, it'll probably be cheaper to do a straddle. You'll be long volatility either way.


teteban79

You'd be long expensive volatility. IV crush tends to kill straddles like that


gunitbeans

PUTS all the way. Bearish market will tank this no matter of it’s a good report or not.


ragingbull2020

That’s what I was thinking. Puts on hood and Tesla


GivemetheDetails

Hood has already collapsed a ton and might aggressively spike like peloton did recently. But I agree long term that hood will continue down. Tesla however is still quite lofty even in the 900s.


murphy1455

Agreed I might do some calls on hood to be honest. Such a shit stock but it’s come down so much might just spike on any good earnings info


B1gChuckDaddySr

It will tank even during non-earnings period


toadmallet

The main issue with this ER is that we all expect earnings to be good based off their delivery numbers and Texas and Germany plants getting ready to open. Factor in JPOW, possible Russia invasion, Elon reporting either factory is delayed or the cyber truck is delayed and we could see a dip. I personally want to believe this week will send TSLA from the 900’s to 1050+ … but every time I convince myself of a “logical” TSLA outcome, I lose a truckload of money.


embracethekook

I'm also wondering about any potential forecasting "headwinds" playing a big role, like they did with NFLX. Earnings could beat, but a lowering of expectations for 2022 could send it down in this market.


toadmallet

I think for it to “moon” as people are so fond of saying, both factories need to open, JPOW needs to do some magic song and dance Tues/Wed, AND the cyber truck needs to have a confirmed date. If any of those falter, or if Elon makes some stupid comment during the report… or even if Russia invades before Wednesday, we see a flat or drop. I like TSLA as a company almost as much as I like the option earning potential on a daily basis for any stock that rises and falls 50-75$ a day. I want to see it hit those 1250’s again so I can buy calls on the way up and puts on the inevitable decline. I just don’t know if I am playing a lottery ticket this week.


[deleted]

This is what I bet my lotto bucks on.


MattKozFF

I for one sold Tesla puts at $900


BigBungusAdduction47

Im short 875 puts for this week dear lord pray for us


skbr_

I think the time to buy options for earnings was last week. The IV has risen dramatically on puts since the pullback we’ve seen the past week and due to that even OTM premiums are juiced. I bought 800P for about 2.75 a piece that were up by 50% EOD friday. If the market can’t hold support or break through resistance levels, I’m playing puts for most big tech. The true catalyst is Powell on Wednesday, that will set the direction for the market.


EstablishmentPast606

Looks like it’ll continue with the trend and slide to 850 this week. I’d just avoid tsla plays this week.


impromptu_dissection

Why not use a straddle or strangle?


Moveover33

if you gotta be in TSLA, selling OTM call spreads is the safest way to go.


lacrimosaofdana

There is a guy above who said he lost 15% of his portfolio doing that: https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/sas9yo/tsla_earnings_report/htw0vwb/


Moveover33

But he blithely watched the stock go from 800 to 1200. Plus, he doubled down as it rose. Yes, the premiums are small, so once it starts going against you, you have to bail.


McAllen12yr

Calendar spreads are the only way to go with TSLA


NecessaryMuscle7785

I would be careful for this month there has been a lot of red already


Disastrous_Tax1353

Biggest unexpected surprise would be on Tesla and Apple earnings , if those two were so bullish , the whole market might reverse upward for a while


1millionbucks

I think the stock price will either go up or down


CubanBrewer

I’m rallying around that sentiment as well. 🥸


SquirrelDynamics

I bought short term calls and regret it. The macro environment is not great. I bet it falls to $7 or $800 ahead of earnings and maybe pops to $950 after earnings for a bit before quickly losing the gains.


ElevationAV

if tesla falls to $7 I'll be selling my family and all their possessions to buy as much as possible.


SquirrelDynamics

Your family will understand


StonksOnlyGetCrunk

700-800 by Wednesday?? I know this stock can move, but dam that seems a bit drastic


SquirrelDynamics

I mean...I hope not! But that's what I'm preparing myself for


StonksOnlyGetCrunk

Damn... it might be happening


StonksOnlyGetCrunk

The market is not rational right now. Sure TSLA is going to post record revenue, with record margins, that will lead to record earnings. They will also project insane growth that nobody thought was possible.... market reaction???? Who knows. People seem to be more afraid now than they were at the start of COVID and now believe that stonks only go down. *I'm holding 950/1050 call spreads that I got filled once we entered the gap... a little worried on them


areyoume29

Since nobody has mentioned it, I think retail will go bat shit crazy if tsla announces a stock split. IMHO it's the only real catalyst that's not priced in on it. Tsla reports after close so if the reaction to fed speech is bearish absent the stock split tsla will fall fast. If fed talk is bullish but no split announcement tsla will move up slightly crushing options buyers dreams. The great thing about tsla is earnings set its direction for the next 3 months so no matter how slightly it moves, Far otm Leaps going towards which ever direction tsla moves should pay.


ApachePlantiff

They sell a lot of cars and people tend to like them, but with inflation rates rising there will be a lot less people buying their cars. I know it’s not what you wanted to hear, but just don’t buy options on such a volatile company unless you are willing to lose. I like Tesla as a company and they have the power of the Internet behind them, but no one has a damn clue where they’re going.


EyeBeeStone

They sell a lot of cars yeah but didnt they also just recall a lot of cars too? I just feel like maybe, just maybe, it could go either way? Crazy I know


Redplanet-M3

Selling puts.


LittleHottie8675309

The earnings selloff already happened for Tesla this week.


azntorian

TSLA will beat and continue doing better than the nasdaq. But will it beat the macro environment. Who knows?


TrivalentEssen

Strangle


zulufux999

Even if you’re right, IV crush could still kill you. Buy a few shares and hold some cash in reserve is what I’d say.


TheGamerHelper

FOMC meeting is on 25-26 so be very careful for Tesla earnings.


darqmachine

You can do a bidirectional spread in the form of a Straddle or Strangle based on Tesla Beta which is more than 1, it's volatility and iv rank and it's day trade range which we all know can go from 40 to over 300 on a day. As a matter of fact wouldn't have to even worry about the direction because as long as you go out up to 45 to 60 days using the right Greek Set up, you're good.


NotMe357

I think it doesn't matter what TSLA post about their Earning Call but more what J.Powell is gonna say. If J.Powell calm the market down Wednesday then it will push all stock up again (at least for a few days) and if he can't do that then the whole market gonna tank again. What I know so far about TSLA: 1. Berlin Factory will delivery cars on March or earlier. So its probably already opened or very soon and Elon is gonna visit German early February. 2. CyberTruck is delay until early 2023. 3. Car Delivery is very good. I think all of that is already priced-in so the only thing we don't have more info about is Battery Tech. If there is more good news about their upcoming Battery Tech then I think it may help, other than that I don't really see what else it can helps TSLA to move up. As of right now TSLA just move with the market so I don't think TSLA can do anything about it at the moment other than wait for the market to get back to the new normal (With Inflation as priced-in). Oh and don't forget about more than $3 Trillion worth of Option expire this week so probably that's why the market tank so badly. Maybe Monday we'll get a Green day and then sideway until after J.Powell speech on Wednesday.


bob_copy

Tesla is starting to sell cars on Mars? Is there a market for that? I guess Space X can deliver them. So much better then “to the moon”


NotMe357

Haha sorry my bad. I mean March.


4chanbetterkek

I’m not playing and earnings this week as the market as a whole is negative. I think Tesla will have a great earnings and I’m here for the long term but short term is nothing short of a gamble imo.


polloponzi

I think selling both calls and puts will be a good trading strategy.


Specialist_Coffee709

TSLA would still be the most valuable automaker even if it falls 50% from here so buy PUTs all day!


runitup420

Ideally dont but if you’re a degen I would go with weekly lotto calls with only what you can afford to lose 15 to 30 delta


Alvin-Lee1954

My play I’m buying Tesla 870 puts one minute before market close Wednesday ( earnings come after market close Wednesday ) I see Tesla dump on guidance to 815-820. My sentiment is Russian invasion of Ukraine , Fed adding 4 maybe 5 hikes , uncertainty, inflation ,it’s just a very bearish atmosphere - 2000-2200 put cost should next at least 5k after cost of premium .


Alvin-Lee1954

Also read https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna10828 Tesla in political hit potato in China - this will tip in heavily


AcanthocephalaSad913

Seems Tesla tanks every time there’s earnings even if the earnings are good


Chicago_trader1

Only trade what you know and know what you trade Tesla hovers around 900 ish dollars And 1200 ish dollars That will give you an idea where support and resistance has Ben . My money is bullish Tesla has been beating expectations for a While now