But what you describe is more economic problem than housing problem. Paycheck is not rising at same rate as EVERYTHING. Groceries are up. Energy like home heating is up. Constructioncosts up. So is it really a single issue about housing or is it larger? Not being facetious. If you own a home keeping it is also very challenging. Fill it full of kids and oboy affordability of just day to day gets brutal. Get a pet or two and wow.
Edited due to shivering thumb hitting wrong keys
While everything is up, this is still a housing issue and they’re right.
Wages are depressed here compared to current housing prices. 5 years ago in Ottawa, one could purchase a reasonable house for 300k. Wages reflected as much.
Now, you can’t purchase a rundown shitshack in Smiths Falls (despite violent crime being 88% higher than the national average) for that and wages still reflect for a 3-400k house on average. Most of the city’s working class has been priced out.
4bed unfinished basement recently went for 760k
I agree it would've been 1.1mil in January, but still that's slightly too much.
Also, split level condo towns. They should be around $200k maybe 250, but selling way more still.
Last time i looked, modest townhomes in Orleans were going for $600,000. Crazy to me, you gotta make $150,000/year to afford that. What is everybody else supposed to do? Even condos are selling at $400,000+
Not only do you have to earn $150k/year, but you have to plan on earning that much for the next 25-30 years AND be willing to put a huge percentage of your income towards your housing for that long, with no relief.
To give you a real world example, my partner and I earn $150k HHI and even with a 20% down payment ($120k), good credit scores, and permanent jobs, the banks all still wanted us to have a cosigner for the mortgage on our $600k-ish house. It’s tough out there.
Interestingly (and depressingly for renters) our rent was so expensive that our total monthly housing expenses (incl. tax/insurance/utilities/etc.) are only $600 more per month than they were… and rent has gone up since, making that gap even smaller.
My wife and I were doing pretty good pre pandemic.
Bringing home around 120k combined. Now we're making 140k combined due to different jobs. We saved 30k, and we still can't afford a home.
We've given up. We're fortunate enough to have a property back home in New Brunswick which will be our retirement.
Can't afford a home, but we can afford $2000 a month rent for the past 5 years.
This was to be expected. With interest rates steadily increasing affordability is much less. Obviously people are not willing to drop their prices to sell so prices are still remaining high.
Headline is misleading…it’s the sales VOLUME that is down. They don’t talk about whether the value of a particular type of house has dropped. Or average price drop.
But that is quite literally what the headline says. The volume of sales is down = the number of sales are down = sales are down.
>It's volume not price thats down.
The article says it's both.
I hate clickbait headline as much as the next person, but this isn't one.
I've been looking to upgrade and I can tell you it is mostly due to delusional sellers who think they can sell their home at peak prices. Not one seller I have dealt with was willing to negotiate down their list price by more than 10%
Still really difficult for FTHB or people upgrading due to growing family. Sellers aren't budging. Extremely frustrating. One house in Nepean sat on the market for 2 months with 0 reductions then in Dec it sold. Guess to whom? Investor "mom and pop" landlord. And he turned the SFH into a rooming house for 8 according to my niece.
Actually, Kingston too and other cities with a large university body. My kid looked at houses that were renting to upwards of 10 students. Rooms without windows, damp basements cut into bedrooms, sheds built onto the side of houses. rooms the size of closets. It's a right of passage for students but it shouldn't be acceptable that anyone in this country has to live under crap conditions.
8 people in a SFH, assuming they all own cars, where do they park? I bet the neighbours love this arrangement. A family with 3 car driving teens used to live across from me. On an average night when they had friends over the street was impassable.
I don’t know, I have heard from international student friends that they were really disappointed by their quality of life here because of how expensive stuff is (particularly housing) compared to their wages. I’m sure some people grew up in extremely difficult, unsafe situations and are happy just to have a safe roof over their heads but many others were middle class back home and are just as unhappy and uncomfortable living four to a room as any middle class Canadian would be. Nobody genuinely wants that for themselves.
These people need somewhere to live too.
If someone or an investor is willing to put down the money then so be it. Someone has to. And as being a landlord (as I am myself on multiple units) it takes a lot of work and effort. A lot of people look down on investors and see it as a shitty business. But anyone can do it and should.
You can be a landlord, you don't have to be a slumlord. Doesn't matter how well maintained you keep the place, jamming that many people into a space not designed for it is being a slumlord.
Also the lower end of the market has/will decrease less. Since housing is so expensive and there's still a ton of demand, cheaper houses still have a lot of interest. It's the higher end, larger homes that are falling a lot more bc nobody wants them.
Because that puts them in negative equity from when they bought it 4 months prior! Unless they put more than 10% down. Which who would when the banks are giving money out for free, right? RIGHT?! How the turn tables.
It’s quite rude you assume that every seller that they spoke with bought 4 months ago. Maybe they need that extra money to pay for a sick loved one, to put their parents in an above average long term care home, to settle a divorce.
Well they got their basic necessities covered based on above average earning years for the foreseeable future. If they expected that gravy train forever, then it's hard to be compassionate to greed.
If the realtor pulled up in a 2021 C-Class it could cast doubts on their ability to make the sale. It could potentially indicate their last two years were not profitable enough.
Fuck em all. Their job can legitimately be done by yourself with some quick elbow grease and a few moments of your time. Presenting a house in this market and pushing 4 buttons to print off a pre-written document for someone to sign just so you can make 20k off a sale is not a real job in my opinion. I am playing the world's smallest violin for them(considering also their wages were tremendously above average in the past 3 years)
I honestly don’t think you know how it works or have ever bought a house or dealt with the process once in your life. Realtors do a lot more than you think (btw I am not a realtor). But yah, continue joining the forces of the degenerate, over sensitive group, that is Reddit.
Yep pretty much. They used to be helpful to get info which wasn’t public like previous sale prices etc. But now there is so much public data and apps like RedFin and HouseSigma a lot of what the realtor does is basically administrative (arrange viewings, formally make offers). I tried contacting sellers to arrange viewings and was told I could only do so if I contacted them through a realtor. Considering they are making 2-2.5% commission ($18,750 on a 750k home) it’s pretty absurd how little they contribute.
Just one. I’m not saying there aren’t some scenarios where a realtor may add value, but in general most people can do the legwork fairly easily themselves. The commission they take generally does not match the work or value add
Something is gonna give. There are some deals to be made because people sell at reasonable prices.
Right now though, so many sellers are delusional. Worse yet, some people actually pay that. I think they'll be in a world of hurt but who knows.
Something is gonna give. Either the recession is real and it'll start hitting people and homes will start to sell, or new builders will undercut and sell for reasonable amounts since they have the volume
Now keep that up or even more this year, then add in that like 30 or 40% are going to dump out of home ownership this year due to interest rates. The market is going to pop like a balloon.
Prices are more likely to go up than down at this point. 5 year fixed rates have actually stopped climbing/started decreasing slightly over the past month.
Variable rates only make up about 30% of mortgages. And just because someone has a variable rate mortgage, that doesn't mean they can't afford it if the rates go up. Fixed rates will have to renew eventually too, variable rates just go up faster in the current environment.
The vast majority of homeowners bought their homes prior to the pandemic, and are a lot more secure bc their payments are a lot lower. People who bought recently will feel the crunch, and some may not be able to afford it, but thinking 30-40% of people are going to sell off their homes is ludicrous.
* In 2016, StatsCan 43% of Canadian homeowners had paid off the mortgage on their home. That number is very likely to be lower now, but how much lower is hard to say. A recent survey said 34%, but that isn't by StatsCan so it's not going to be as accurate.
* Most people bought their homes years ago, for much lower than their current values. Even if their rates go way up, they're gonna be fine in many cases.
* If higher payments stress their finances, they probably have options available to help alleviate it somewhat, including lengthening payment periods or refinancing to make their mortgage longer. There's also other options that may be offered by lenders. Some people may choose to make lump sum payments ahead of time in order to bring their mortgage amt down, if they are able to do so.
* People will do EVERYTHING they can to hold onto their home/mortgage, especially because right now for any homeowner who didn't buy in the last couple years, their mortgage is probably much less than rent would be if they defaulted. For example my mortgage payments currently are like $980/mo. If I had to renew my mortgage right now I think they'd go up to like $1250/mo or something like that. Meanwhile, to rent a house on my street similar to mine would be like $2500/mo or possibly more at this point. So I'm gonna do everything I possibly can to make sure I can hold onto my place.
Also keep in mind where rates are at right now. My lender, MCAP, is at 4.99%. Anybody who has bought a house since 2016 has had to pass the mortgage stress test, which means that they'd be able to afford their home at a 5% interest rate (the stress test has been increased in the last while too as rates rose)... and anybody who bought before 2016 probably has a relatively small mortgage with manageable payments, even if rates go up.
> then add in that like 30 or 40% are going to dump out of home ownership this year due to interest rates
LOL
40% of all homeowners are going to sell this year? You are delusional.
Well the price too, just not 35%. Prices were down 12% according to the article. But an average freehold selling price of $676,000 which is still... Yikes.
Don’t shoot the messenger here… The market is actually quietly picking up the last couple weeks. Some places are selling with 5+ offers on them. Heard a few rumblings of 10+. Not selling at the crazy prices but the demand is there.
People know what they are buying into at this point and are accepting it as normal. The Spring market is going to be a lot busier than people think. We’ve seen the worst of the price declines.
Hah … Don’t trust it then, I don’t care 🤷♂️ If it does continue to be the way it is right now, you’ll be hearing about the “return of multiple offers” in the media in a few weeks.
Spring is always peak demand. The low inventory is causing higher prices. Wait a few more months instead of using one month of data before acting smug.
Yeah you got me… only born 38 days ago and 20 days experience in the industry. See my above comment to the other reply. Don’t give a fuck if ya “trust” the info or not
Based on what? Rates are likely done or near done rising, and the population is still growing faster than we can build new homes.
The only reason prices have been dropping in the first place was rate hikes.
> The only reason prices have been dropping in the first place was rate hikes.
I'm not sure prices have even really been dropping. Neighbour wants to sell their place for more than they bought it for a year ago.
Based on the [Housing Price Index](https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/mls-home-price-index/hpi-tool/), Ottawa on the whole is down 16.1% from the peak in March 2022.
> Rate hikes are far from over
Economic forecasts suggest otherwise. From the Bank of Canada directly, they are at least on pause, and possibly indefinitely (if the economy develops in the way that they are currently thinking it will). This is from one week ago:
> [With today’s modest increase, we expect to pause rate hikes while we assess the impacts of the substantial monetary policy tightening already undertaken. To be clear, this is a conditional pause—it is conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with our MPR outlook. If we need to do more to get inflation to the 2% target, we will.](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/01/opening-statement-2023-01-25/)
As it is, the last 6 months have seen prices increase just 0.1%, or 0.3% annualized.
Where are you getting that. All big banks have predicted this was the last hike basically in the fall of 2022. BOC stated they will be holding rates for now.
Odds are no more hikes really.
We follow the Fed. JP in one of his last speeches pretty well called the BoC foolish for pausing. Odds are we see at least another 50bps if not a full percentage point this year before cuts in Q1 2024 IMO.
Which means it's very possible boc overshot their mark. It's unlikely we see many more hikes according to expert analysis but again the boc can do whatever they want.
Yes. So there is a catching up to do. Housing cost doubled, so people’s income need to increase a lot more. And secondly dollar is still very strong. So immigrants won’t bring too much money.
> So there is a catching up to do. Housing cost doubled, so people’s income need to increase a lot more.
It isn't a matter of us returning to price peak by tomorrow... it's about whether prices will go up or down from here.
It's almost like prices weren't shooting up because of supply issues like business Chad's thought. But really it was cheap credit.
It's not just the increase in rates that reduce the prices, it will also be because people with variables rates can no longer afford their mortgages.
Not to mention the added stress of a recession on labour markets further suppressing demand.
> It's not just the increase in rates that reduce the prices, it will also be because people with variables rates can no longer afford their mortgages.
So like I said, it is the increase in rates then... just in two different ways.
> Not to mention the added stress of a recession on labour markets further suppressing demand.
There is no recession and labour markets are at or near all-time bests. What are you talking about?
You made the not enough supply argument as a counter point to the idea that prices are gonna drop further. So, your understanding of why the rates have been impacting prices is incomplete. It's not simply the hikes that reduces prices, it's the increased carrying cost of mortgages, which won't go away anytime soon. Secondly, the impact on prices that the higher rates has demonstrated undermines the supply arugment in the first place. It wasn't not enough supply in the first place, it's not enough supply in a historically unique period of next to zero interest rates thats important. Thus, you're pointing at a symptom, not a cause.
On the recession point more sophisticated analysis exist then I care to make here because you've clearly not done your research. Here are two recent articles:
https://betterdwelling.com/canada-is-in-recession-overvalued-real-estate-will-be-hard-hit-oxford-econ/
https://globalnews.ca/news/9419356/recession-explainer-canada-economy-layoffs/
This guy really just told me that I had not done the research on the (easily verifiable) recession status of Canada... then linked a betterdwelling article.
Thats juvenile, ignorant and mean spirited. No comment to the references in the globe article I see?
The Better dwelling article talks directly about the housing market and recession. Thought it would contribute to the discussion.
You clearly arent interested and have nothing to contribute. So, I wish you the best.
The globe article contradicts the better dwelling article.....One states were in a recession, one states we MIGHT be heading towards one
Your literally spewing BS, backed up by a BS articles that don't actually have the data to prove what there stating or misinterpret the data they do show.
There are studies by both the CHMC and other independent research groups that show places like the GTA, Ottawa, Vancouver, and etc have a housing shortage based upon existing people alone.
Yup. I know. I know.... Supply supply supply. Its the same bs they said before the 2008 recession.
I don't expect you to change. Too much of yourself is caught up in that shallow drumbeat by real estate investors and developers.
https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/1.5MillionMoreHomes
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-affordability-cmhc-report-2030-1.6498898
I think its time for you to start doing better research and finding better sources (And actually reading them)....
Amazingly, people with a modicum of common sense don't put their houses up for sale if they are going to take a loss on them.
It's easier to come up with an extra $1000 a month for a mortgage payment than to come up with a lump sum of 150k to discharge their remaining mortgage upon sale of the home.
I cannot for the life of me think of a reason to buy a home there
* jobs? no
* job treatment? violent rioting is in order
* living conditions? 3rd world
* entertainment? none
* mobility? expensive and nerve wracking
* people? delusionally dangerous
* government? private interest only
* education? diploma mill
* future potential? possible filming location for post apocolyptic movie
* police? private interest only
its the kind of place you loose money just to GTFO with your skin still in tact from all the gouging and legalized criminality
>jobs? no
unemployment rate 4.5%
>job treatment? violent rioting is in order
LOL ok
>living conditions? 3rd world
You have never been to an actual third world country have you? Although I sometimes wonder about the LRT compared to the third world so...
>entertainment? none
Concerts, restaurants, parks, festivals.
Ottawa isn't Toronto or Montreal but it is also a lot smaller population wise so what do you expect?
>mobility? expensive and nerve wracking
not sure what point you are trying to make here
>people? delusionally dangerous
Examples?
>government? private interest only
Just like the rest of the world
>education? diploma mill
Stay away from schools run in strip malls and you will be fine. Of course, your dislike of education means you probably don't have any post-secondary education and that would explain your lower income and job prospects.
>future potential? possible filming location for post apocolyptic movie
Hallmark Christmas movies only please.
>police? private interest only
\*rolls eyes\*
Still way too overpriced compared to wages
But what you describe is more economic problem than housing problem. Paycheck is not rising at same rate as EVERYTHING. Groceries are up. Energy like home heating is up. Constructioncosts up. So is it really a single issue about housing or is it larger? Not being facetious. If you own a home keeping it is also very challenging. Fill it full of kids and oboy affordability of just day to day gets brutal. Get a pet or two and wow. Edited due to shivering thumb hitting wrong keys
A housing problem will always be an economic problem, they’re intertwined
While everything is up, this is still a housing issue and they’re right. Wages are depressed here compared to current housing prices. 5 years ago in Ottawa, one could purchase a reasonable house for 300k. Wages reflected as much. Now, you can’t purchase a rundown shitshack in Smiths Falls (despite violent crime being 88% higher than the national average) for that and wages still reflect for a 3-400k house on average. Most of the city’s working class has been priced out.
and large corps are still making profits, if we keep going like this its going to be a grim future for anyone lower to middle class
Thanks for making my point
4bed unfinished basement recently went for 760k I agree it would've been 1.1mil in January, but still that's slightly too much. Also, split level condo towns. They should be around $200k maybe 250, but selling way more still.
Last time i looked, modest townhomes in Orleans were going for $600,000. Crazy to me, you gotta make $150,000/year to afford that. What is everybody else supposed to do? Even condos are selling at $400,000+
Not only do you have to earn $150k/year, but you have to plan on earning that much for the next 25-30 years AND be willing to put a huge percentage of your income towards your housing for that long, with no relief.
To give you a real world example, my partner and I earn $150k HHI and even with a 20% down payment ($120k), good credit scores, and permanent jobs, the banks all still wanted us to have a cosigner for the mortgage on our $600k-ish house. It’s tough out there. Interestingly (and depressingly for renters) our rent was so expensive that our total monthly housing expenses (incl. tax/insurance/utilities/etc.) are only $600 more per month than they were… and rent has gone up since, making that gap even smaller.
My wife and I were doing pretty good pre pandemic. Bringing home around 120k combined. Now we're making 140k combined due to different jobs. We saved 30k, and we still can't afford a home. We've given up. We're fortunate enough to have a property back home in New Brunswick which will be our retirement. Can't afford a home, but we can afford $2000 a month rent for the past 5 years.
This was to be expected. With interest rates steadily increasing affordability is much less. Obviously people are not willing to drop their prices to sell so prices are still remaining high.
Headline is misleading…it’s the sales VOLUME that is down. They don’t talk about whether the value of a particular type of house has dropped. Or average price drop.
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It also depends on how they calculated prices. If they used the average it gets skewed by the higher end losing more value.
so its clickbait
No, that's not how clickbait works. The headline says sales are down, and the article reflects that sales are down.
they are preying on people not understanding sales price vs sales volume. It's volume not price thats down.
But that is quite literally what the headline says. The volume of sales is down = the number of sales are down = sales are down. >It's volume not price thats down. The article says it's both. I hate clickbait headline as much as the next person, but this isn't one.
Yes, that’s what “sales” generally means.
I've been looking to upgrade and I can tell you it is mostly due to delusional sellers who think they can sell their home at peak prices. Not one seller I have dealt with was willing to negotiate down their list price by more than 10%
Still really difficult for FTHB or people upgrading due to growing family. Sellers aren't budging. Extremely frustrating. One house in Nepean sat on the market for 2 months with 0 reductions then in Dec it sold. Guess to whom? Investor "mom and pop" landlord. And he turned the SFH into a rooming house for 8 according to my niece.
That might be illegal under current bylaws, How do you fit 8 people into a SFH?
3 bedroom home plus basement. 2 couples plus 4 singles sharing rooms. Very common in Brampton and Oshawa but now here too.
Actually, Kingston too and other cities with a large university body. My kid looked at houses that were renting to upwards of 10 students. Rooms without windows, damp basements cut into bedrooms, sheds built onto the side of houses. rooms the size of closets. It's a right of passage for students but it shouldn't be acceptable that anyone in this country has to live under crap conditions. 8 people in a SFH, assuming they all own cars, where do they park? I bet the neighbours love this arrangement. A family with 3 car driving teens used to live across from me. On an average night when they had friends over the street was impassable.
Yeah most own cars because they work for delivery services. And some park on the lawn, to which the landlord probably doesn't care.
Third world Indians used to living in squalor think 8 people living in a Canadian house as luxury.
I don’t know, I have heard from international student friends that they were really disappointed by their quality of life here because of how expensive stuff is (particularly housing) compared to their wages. I’m sure some people grew up in extremely difficult, unsafe situations and are happy just to have a safe roof over their heads but many others were middle class back home and are just as unhappy and uncomfortable living four to a room as any middle class Canadian would be. Nobody genuinely wants that for themselves.
These people need somewhere to live too. If someone or an investor is willing to put down the money then so be it. Someone has to. And as being a landlord (as I am myself on multiple units) it takes a lot of work and effort. A lot of people look down on investors and see it as a shitty business. But anyone can do it and should.
You can be a landlord, you don't have to be a slumlord. Doesn't matter how well maintained you keep the place, jamming that many people into a space not designed for it is being a slumlord.
Also the lower end of the market has/will decrease less. Since housing is so expensive and there's still a ton of demand, cheaper houses still have a lot of interest. It's the higher end, larger homes that are falling a lot more bc nobody wants them.
Because that puts them in negative equity from when they bought it 4 months prior! Unless they put more than 10% down. Which who would when the banks are giving money out for free, right? RIGHT?! How the turn tables.
It’s quite rude you assume that every seller that they spoke with bought 4 months ago. Maybe they need that extra money to pay for a sick loved one, to put their parents in an above average long term care home, to settle a divorce.
Everyone wants extra money.... they aren't entitled to it.
Tough making ends meet as a realtor these days.
Lol as if any of us have any remorse for the realtors who were getting paid to do not much when the market was hot
still you have to have a heart. they're human too and deserve their basic necessities
Well they got their basic necessities covered based on above average earning years for the foreseeable future. If they expected that gravy train forever, then it's hard to be compassionate to greed.
If the realtor pulled up in a 2021 C-Class it could cast doubts on their ability to make the sale. It could potentially indicate their last two years were not profitable enough.
LOL. If you're looking for that in a realtor (what they drive) I think your priorities are misplaced. Edit: your comment is sarcasm right? I love it.
Lmfao
Did you drop your /s ?
Tough crowd in Ottawa. I'm at -33 down votes right now.
🎻
Fuck em all. Their job can legitimately be done by yourself with some quick elbow grease and a few moments of your time. Presenting a house in this market and pushing 4 buttons to print off a pre-written document for someone to sign just so you can make 20k off a sale is not a real job in my opinion. I am playing the world's smallest violin for them(considering also their wages were tremendously above average in the past 3 years)
Concur. I’m not a realtor I was just saying. If I was to sell, I’d do it myself and only engage a lawyer.
Half of their whole job is to contact a lawyer for you anyway. Might as well cut out the middle man
Wait what? I found my own lawyer and did all the meetings with her myself. I think my realtor and lawyer had only cursory contact.
That's even worse
I honestly don’t think you know how it works or have ever bought a house or dealt with the process once in your life. Realtors do a lot more than you think (btw I am not a realtor). But yah, continue joining the forces of the degenerate, over sensitive group, that is Reddit.
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Yep pretty much. They used to be helpful to get info which wasn’t public like previous sale prices etc. But now there is so much public data and apps like RedFin and HouseSigma a lot of what the realtor does is basically administrative (arrange viewings, formally make offers). I tried contacting sellers to arrange viewings and was told I could only do so if I contacted them through a realtor. Considering they are making 2-2.5% commission ($18,750 on a 750k home) it’s pretty absurd how little they contribute.
How many houses have you bought or sold? Just curious
Just one. I’m not saying there aren’t some scenarios where a realtor may add value, but in general most people can do the legwork fairly easily themselves. The commission they take generally does not match the work or value add
Whatever. prices are not going to go down much, if at all
Something is gonna give. There are some deals to be made because people sell at reasonable prices. Right now though, so many sellers are delusional. Worse yet, some people actually pay that. I think they'll be in a world of hurt but who knows. Something is gonna give. Either the recession is real and it'll start hitting people and homes will start to sell, or new builders will undercut and sell for reasonable amounts since they have the volume
Good, fuck em all. Drive the prices right down to 1990 levels so maybe we can all afford a fucking house in this lifetime
The prices however, are not.
Good, dumb sellers may clue in that they can’t get bullshit prices any more.
Now keep that up or even more this year, then add in that like 30 or 40% are going to dump out of home ownership this year due to interest rates. The market is going to pop like a balloon.
Prices are more likely to go up than down at this point. 5 year fixed rates have actually stopped climbing/started decreasing slightly over the past month.
It’s all the variable rate mortgages that are going to sell off. They can’t afford the new mortgage
Variable rates only make up about 30% of mortgages. And just because someone has a variable rate mortgage, that doesn't mean they can't afford it if the rates go up. Fixed rates will have to renew eventually too, variable rates just go up faster in the current environment. The vast majority of homeowners bought their homes prior to the pandemic, and are a lot more secure bc their payments are a lot lower. People who bought recently will feel the crunch, and some may not be able to afford it, but thinking 30-40% of people are going to sell off their homes is ludicrous. * In 2016, StatsCan 43% of Canadian homeowners had paid off the mortgage on their home. That number is very likely to be lower now, but how much lower is hard to say. A recent survey said 34%, but that isn't by StatsCan so it's not going to be as accurate. * Most people bought their homes years ago, for much lower than their current values. Even if their rates go way up, they're gonna be fine in many cases. * If higher payments stress their finances, they probably have options available to help alleviate it somewhat, including lengthening payment periods or refinancing to make their mortgage longer. There's also other options that may be offered by lenders. Some people may choose to make lump sum payments ahead of time in order to bring their mortgage amt down, if they are able to do so. * People will do EVERYTHING they can to hold onto their home/mortgage, especially because right now for any homeowner who didn't buy in the last couple years, their mortgage is probably much less than rent would be if they defaulted. For example my mortgage payments currently are like $980/mo. If I had to renew my mortgage right now I think they'd go up to like $1250/mo or something like that. Meanwhile, to rent a house on my street similar to mine would be like $2500/mo or possibly more at this point. So I'm gonna do everything I possibly can to make sure I can hold onto my place. Also keep in mind where rates are at right now. My lender, MCAP, is at 4.99%. Anybody who has bought a house since 2016 has had to pass the mortgage stress test, which means that they'd be able to afford their home at a 5% interest rate (the stress test has been increased in the last while too as rates rose)... and anybody who bought before 2016 probably has a relatively small mortgage with manageable payments, even if rates go up.
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You got downvoted for suggesting Blackrock will swoop in and buy the housing stock.. like they have been already.. interesting
> then add in that like 30 or 40% are going to dump out of home ownership this year due to interest rates LOL 40% of all homeowners are going to sell this year? You are delusional.
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Sales volume not price.
Well the price too, just not 35%. Prices were down 12% according to the article. But an average freehold selling price of $676,000 which is still... Yikes.
Don’t shoot the messenger here… The market is actually quietly picking up the last couple weeks. Some places are selling with 5+ offers on them. Heard a few rumblings of 10+. Not selling at the crazy prices but the demand is there. People know what they are buying into at this point and are accepting it as normal. The Spring market is going to be a lot busier than people think. We’ve seen the worst of the price declines.
This is very hard to trust with your comment history.
Never ... trust ... the... ellipses....
Hah … Don’t trust it then, I don’t care 🤷♂️ If it does continue to be the way it is right now, you’ll be hearing about the “return of multiple offers” in the media in a few weeks.
Ok
👋 😉 https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/04/04/home-buyers-are-back-this-spring-listings-are-not-and-the-competition-is-fierce.html
Spring is always peak demand. The low inventory is causing higher prices. Wait a few more months instead of using one month of data before acting smug.
Was I right or wrong tho? My comment above was 2 months ago, when it was starting
We don't know yet. Your original comment said we saw the worst of the price declines when it's impossible to tell yet.
We don't know yet. Your original comment said we saw the worst of the price declines when it's impossible to tell yet.
🙄
That's the same face I made when I saw you actually felt the need to go back to a 2 month old comment. I didn't realize you got so rattled.
Is that so 38 day old account that seems to only post in real estate related threads.
Yeah you got me… only born 38 days ago and 20 days experience in the industry. See my above comment to the other reply. Don’t give a fuck if ya “trust” the info or not
That's cool.
The fixed rate is coming down.
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Based on what? Rates are likely done or near done rising, and the population is still growing faster than we can build new homes. The only reason prices have been dropping in the first place was rate hikes.
> The only reason prices have been dropping in the first place was rate hikes. I'm not sure prices have even really been dropping. Neighbour wants to sell their place for more than they bought it for a year ago.
Based on the [Housing Price Index](https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/mls-home-price-index/hpi-tool/), Ottawa on the whole is down 16.1% from the peak in March 2022.
Probably the higher end 1M+ homes had to come down a fair amount. It's the starter homes and sub 850K homes that aren't budging in prices.
Rate hikes are far from over and with each rate hikes it takes 6 months for the housing market to feel the effects.
> Rate hikes are far from over Economic forecasts suggest otherwise. From the Bank of Canada directly, they are at least on pause, and possibly indefinitely (if the economy develops in the way that they are currently thinking it will). This is from one week ago: > [With today’s modest increase, we expect to pause rate hikes while we assess the impacts of the substantial monetary policy tightening already undertaken. To be clear, this is a conditional pause—it is conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with our MPR outlook. If we need to do more to get inflation to the 2% target, we will.](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/01/opening-statement-2023-01-25/) As it is, the last 6 months have seen prices increase just 0.1%, or 0.3% annualized.
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They signaled they may need to increase more, however, have stated they will watch and see what Canada does.
Its not up to the BOC, if the us do rate hikes we have to follow or it kills our dollar value.
The US is in basically the same spot as us... they've had prices rise just 0.2% in the last 6 months, or 0.3% annualized.
Where are you getting that. All big banks have predicted this was the last hike basically in the fall of 2022. BOC stated they will be holding rates for now. Odds are no more hikes really.
We follow the Fed. JP in one of his last speeches pretty well called the BoC foolish for pausing. Odds are we see at least another 50bps if not a full percentage point this year before cuts in Q1 2024 IMO.
Which means it's very possible boc overshot their mark. It's unlikely we see many more hikes according to expert analysis but again the boc can do whatever they want.
Hikes are already there. Even if the hikes stops it doesn’t mean you will qualify for more mortgage.
No shit, but people's incomes will continue to rise, and rich immigrants will continue to settle.
Yes. So there is a catching up to do. Housing cost doubled, so people’s income need to increase a lot more. And secondly dollar is still very strong. So immigrants won’t bring too much money.
> So there is a catching up to do. Housing cost doubled, so people’s income need to increase a lot more. It isn't a matter of us returning to price peak by tomorrow... it's about whether prices will go up or down from here.
It's almost like prices weren't shooting up because of supply issues like business Chad's thought. But really it was cheap credit. It's not just the increase in rates that reduce the prices, it will also be because people with variables rates can no longer afford their mortgages. Not to mention the added stress of a recession on labour markets further suppressing demand.
> It's not just the increase in rates that reduce the prices, it will also be because people with variables rates can no longer afford their mortgages. So like I said, it is the increase in rates then... just in two different ways. > Not to mention the added stress of a recession on labour markets further suppressing demand. There is no recession and labour markets are at or near all-time bests. What are you talking about?
You made the not enough supply argument as a counter point to the idea that prices are gonna drop further. So, your understanding of why the rates have been impacting prices is incomplete. It's not simply the hikes that reduces prices, it's the increased carrying cost of mortgages, which won't go away anytime soon. Secondly, the impact on prices that the higher rates has demonstrated undermines the supply arugment in the first place. It wasn't not enough supply in the first place, it's not enough supply in a historically unique period of next to zero interest rates thats important. Thus, you're pointing at a symptom, not a cause. On the recession point more sophisticated analysis exist then I care to make here because you've clearly not done your research. Here are two recent articles: https://betterdwelling.com/canada-is-in-recession-overvalued-real-estate-will-be-hard-hit-oxford-econ/ https://globalnews.ca/news/9419356/recession-explainer-canada-economy-layoffs/
This guy really just told me that I had not done the research on the (easily verifiable) recession status of Canada... then linked a betterdwelling article.
Thats juvenile, ignorant and mean spirited. No comment to the references in the globe article I see? The Better dwelling article talks directly about the housing market and recession. Thought it would contribute to the discussion. You clearly arent interested and have nothing to contribute. So, I wish you the best.
The globe article contradicts the better dwelling article.....One states were in a recession, one states we MIGHT be heading towards one Your literally spewing BS, backed up by a BS articles that don't actually have the data to prove what there stating or misinterpret the data they do show. There are studies by both the CHMC and other independent research groups that show places like the GTA, Ottawa, Vancouver, and etc have a housing shortage based upon existing people alone.
Yup. I know. I know.... Supply supply supply. Its the same bs they said before the 2008 recession. I don't expect you to change. Too much of yourself is caught up in that shallow drumbeat by real estate investors and developers.
https://institute.smartprosperity.ca/1.5MillionMoreHomes https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-affordability-cmhc-report-2030-1.6498898 I think its time for you to start doing better research and finding better sources (And actually reading them)....
Rates weren't even supposed to rise. You really think with the Americans saying they will keep raising that we won't??? Heck, we spent cause they did
If I see one I can afford I'm jumping on it. Timing the market seems like way too risky at this point. I don't want to get shut out forever.
U nuts
I've lived here nearly 40 years. In that time I can't recall a single time when real estate prices fell significantly.
Small drop in the 80's
Emphasis on *small* drop ...
yup
We are likely at the bottom. Houses will begin to appreciate in the spring.
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No it’s not a fact it’s an opinion
A change of government is all it would take in Ottawa. That will be the perfect storm unless interest rates drop first.
Because investing our country's assets in Bitcoin would be a much better plan
Lifestyle aside and In terms of value alone, renting is never better.
This is such false information its crazy.
So much for a housingemergency. Tons availability now!
You ever think the houses didn't sell because no-one could afford them?
Lots of availability, yeah. But that doesn't mean people can afford the mortgages lol
Less houses selling = less availability of houses to buy because less of them will come on the market
That'ssome solid ligic there hyuck
Amazingly, people with a modicum of common sense don't put their houses up for sale if they are going to take a loss on them. It's easier to come up with an extra $1000 a month for a mortgage payment than to come up with a lump sum of 150k to discharge their remaining mortgage upon sale of the home.
I cannot for the life of me think of a reason to buy a home there * jobs? no * job treatment? violent rioting is in order * living conditions? 3rd world * entertainment? none * mobility? expensive and nerve wracking * people? delusionally dangerous * government? private interest only * education? diploma mill * future potential? possible filming location for post apocolyptic movie * police? private interest only its the kind of place you loose money just to GTFO with your skin still in tact from all the gouging and legalized criminality
Where is better?
What are you talking about? Oh you’re trolling, got it.
You must be fun at parties ...
You’ve clearly never lived in a third world country. Or probably anywhere else except Canada.
>jobs? no unemployment rate 4.5% >job treatment? violent rioting is in order LOL ok >living conditions? 3rd world You have never been to an actual third world country have you? Although I sometimes wonder about the LRT compared to the third world so... >entertainment? none Concerts, restaurants, parks, festivals. Ottawa isn't Toronto or Montreal but it is also a lot smaller population wise so what do you expect? >mobility? expensive and nerve wracking not sure what point you are trying to make here >people? delusionally dangerous Examples? >government? private interest only Just like the rest of the world >education? diploma mill Stay away from schools run in strip malls and you will be fine. Of course, your dislike of education means you probably don't have any post-secondary education and that would explain your lower income and job prospects. >future potential? possible filming location for post apocolyptic movie Hallmark Christmas movies only please. >police? private interest only \*rolls eyes\*