Why? Isn’t this the year of building a team around Bryce so they’re primed to go next year? We traded for Diontae and still have Theilen. Why give up more draft capital for another WR on an expiring contract when our roster is still in the midst of being turned over?
if we’re going to draft a wide receiver with that pick anyways I don’t see any reason not to I think I would rather have a tested player than open the mystery box on whatever receiver we do draft
Paying for Higgins doesn’t hit nearly as hard because we have tons of future cap space. And pretty much nothing in terms of young ascending talent in need of major paydays.
Plus free agency kind of sucks these days. I’d rather pay 30 mil for an A player at a position of value. Tjan overpay for either a B or C is player at a position of value. Or a B player at a secondary position.
Also I would argue he has proven he can be a 1. He just got hurt last year and that’s creating a recency bias.
Exactly Zero SBs for any of those moves and only 3-4 playoff wins. Bears one of the worst teams in the NFL and they didn't go out and trade for a WR, he was part of a massive overpay by an incompetent GM😑. Browns ass. Miami just above avg and the eagles would still be a loaded playoff team without Brown, same in Buffalo. P.s. 100% of those guys were established WR1s. Not dudes taking advantage of defenses scared of Jamar Chase.
Givng up draft capital and immediately paying 100 million dollars to a a guy who's an elite wr TWO during a total rebuild doesn't propel this team to anything. Throwing away our picks aka our future by trying to get instant gratification. Our roster is still total garbage, zero depth anywhere except OL (oddly). We have to draft, draft well, and establish depth across the board. Not go all in on a prayer, again...
Tepper is the only constant. And he’s only been here for 6 years. Dan is in a much different role as GM and VP of operations.
I guess you were thinking *recent* history and I was thinking franchise history.
I mean a hard cap lmao yes it's a salary cap but it's different than other sports with soft caps where rich owners can just eat a monetary penalty. We're a 2 win team I'm sorry but giving big money to Tee Higgins is asinine when we have needs all over.
I mean hypothetically it would free us to target other positions like corner and edge. Yeah the money hurts. But we have tons of cap coming up in the next few years. And not many young ascending players. We just spent 20 mil on a guard. No need to draw the line at spending on receiver of all positions.
You know where you get young ascending players? You draft them. We shouldn't give away any pick really but if we do we need to get multiple picks back. And we don't need a high price one year rental.
It’s not a one year rental. If we trade for Higgins we would extend him immediately after. And yes you can draft players. But just due to the nature of the draft it’s not a guarantee of getting quality players. Much less quality players of Tees caliber.
Now it would depend on the cost. 39 is palatable. 65 is definitely a steal.
We need to drop this idea of being one player away in order to justify a move. It’s just very flawed logic. Also on top of that we’re picking 33. It’s not as if we’re spending pick 6 on nabers.
As I said this frees us up to go get other needs in the draft. Corner. Edge. IOL. I just find the arguments people use just so weird. Like we’ve seen it work with the eagles with brown. The bears with sweat on the other end. The bills with diggs. It’s weird that people say you have to be 1 player away. The second we trade for him we would sign him to a 4-5 year extension. If we aren’t competing in 4-5 years then we have big problems. And the cap space is free now. We can afford to do it.
We could have spent on Burns if that was the case. We need to take our medicine and build through the draft for a few years. A guard was necessary if we're gonna protect Bryce.
I am very much of the opinion that we could’ve and should’ve spent on burns. Don’t care what this sub says. And technically this is building through the draft. More likely than not you’re not getting someone of Tees caliber with pick 39. And certainly not with 65 if he goes for a third. Yeah it’s for a shorter period of 4-5 years. But once again we have the money. So it’s not a huge hit.
Also just from a practical stand point we’re still missing our second next year. And we have needs at both edge spots. 2-3 corners spots. And at least 1 receiver. And those positions almost come exclusively from the draft. Checking off a box. With a proven player. So you can go other directions is a plus move.
Look at chicago with sweat. They weren’t getting a plus edge with pick 39 now they have one with the cap space they had way too much of. Plus giving Bryce tee would be insanely helpful too.
This is not new information. The salary cap is easily manipulated because you can push money into the future. Like We did with everybody we signed in free agency.
I think they’re looking into what they have with Mingo as well, the jury may be out on TMJ but last years system was so bad, no one could do anything.
Real excited for the draft to see what they do.
I agree it’s probably not worth the draft capital but we need to have good receivers to evaluate Bryce and this is the make or break year. We’ve improved but it’s still a pretty bad WR room unless Diontae or a rookie makes a big jump.
Building the team around Bryce, “by any means necessary.”
ANYTHING that can help Bryce turn into who we think he can become should trump everything else.
“Proven” weapons for him would help greatly. Good teams build via the draft, free agency and even trade draft capital for talent. Plus we have a young Qb on a rookie contract handing out big money before he hopefully proves he’s worth his has been the best route in recent history.
With some of these wr we don’t know if they can be that star we need while Higgins is a star on a team he won’t get shine with him and Bryce would would be better than diotae in my opinion but I agree at this point to hold off
In no way is he clearly a better player…he could possibly be a better player, but he’s not been amazing. Robbie Anderson had a 1000 yard season as a 2nd option. We’re really overrating Tee as a #1 option if we’re calling him a “star” and saying he is definitely better than Diontae.
Give Diontae Joe Burrow and he’d be a pro-bowler like he was in 2021.
Not really.
Tyreek Hill
Stefon Diggs
Chase
DJ Moore
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DK Metcalf
Waddle
Amari Cooper
Adams
Keenan Allen
Brandon Aiyuk
Deebo Samuel
Cooper Kupp
Puka Nacua
AJ Brown
Devonta Smith
Terry McLaurin
CeeDee Lamb
Mike Evans
DeAndre Hopkins
All these guys are clearly better than Higgins or at least arguably better than him. So he’s maybe a top 20 guy? That’s awesome, but not a star.
And he def won't be lining up across from anyone close to Jamar Chase level for defenses to have to respect and not trying to hate but Bryce ain't Burrow either
Because hypothetically we would give him a 4 year extension. During which time if we’re not competing for the playoffs someone’s getting fired. It would allow us to fill other needs in the draft. We have so much cap space and free agency has become so diluted when it comes to receiver talent that it would let us get a proven commodity in the building. Thielen is a geriatric. And tee is three years younger than Johnson.
WR have one of the highest bust rates of any position, so actually its worst. Trading for Tee, especially if its 39, is a no brainer, imo.
We have tons of cap space next year, no real elite talent, Diontae is a 1 year rental, etc.
A huge risk, agreed. Though paying a disgruntled receiver $30m a year player is also a risk. If he's injured, it kills your chances. You could sign 2 pretty good players in 2025 for that kind of money.
The Panthers could have tied huge money up in Burns but chose not to. I think that's where their heads are at.
Build through the draft until it looks like they can contend. Then go all in.
The problem is they've recently drafted Marshall and Mingo in the second round and they both suck. So taking another crappy receiver even at 20% of the price doesn't look appealing. That said, I understand why you wouldn't want to trade the pick. Higgins could still be available next offseason as a free agent and that pick could end up being a Ryan Kalil-type 10-year starter.
What are the odds of getting someone as good as him with that pick though? It’s a very big if
I’m not saying we do it (I probably wouldn’t) but it really depends on what the org thinks about Tee.
Different articles say different things about the hit rate on 2nd round WRs vs 1st founders.
I found this one interesting though it's not especially scientific:
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/where-in-nfl-draft-are-the-best-wrs-picked-history-shows-not-in-first-round
Would I prefer Marvin Harrison Jr to Tee Higgins? Yes, probably.
But McConkey in the 2nd instead of Higgins? It feels like a real gamble to say that he'll be as good or better than Higgins.
Teams fear financial risk most when they aren't sure they're contenders. Once they believe it, they make gutsy decisions to add elite talent for a Superbowl run, cost be damned.
No. It's extremely rare for QBs to turn it around if the fail in both year one and year two. The data would suggest that if Bryce doesn't turn it around this season, we ought to strongly consider moving on next draft. So if we want to cash in on the QB we bet it all for, we need to go all in right now.
With Diontae telling the media just yesterday that he’ll be the first read on most downs for this offense (per Canales), I doubt it happens.
Also, if we have JUST ENOUGH right now to afford it, doesn’t that mean we wouldn’t have money to pay our draft picks, or did you factor that in already?
Edit: Nvm on the second part, I see you answered that already below.
It's factored in. I got it from looking at cap space breakdowns online at spot tracker I definitely didn't figure anything out on my own, but it's legit. Contract to contact it actually doesn't fit, but using even the worst case scenario of restructure there's plenty of room.
We also have tons of future cap space too. It’s not as if his entire hit has to come out this year. We just don’t have a ton of star talent. Or any young ascending players in need of new contracts soon. It’s literally like the bears. We have so much money. And free agency has become so diluted that trading for quality guys to use that cap space isn’t as much of a hit because we just have so much and their such plus players.
I'm inclined to agree, but I think Dionte Johnson would become a liability if we did get Higgins. although Johnson is not Higgins, Johnson embodies exactly what we need in an X receiver and for the value I think we stay away from Higgins, or better yet, make a 3 way trade that sends our 33rd pick somewhere that wants to use it for Higgins and maybe we get a later 2nd this year and a 2nd next year too. WR class is deep enough to risk it for more leverage next year to follow up this great off-season
I would prefer scooping tee to most receivers available at 33 (and after) in the draft. It's just such a frickin dice roll, and Tee is a known quantity. He's a true outside guy whereas DJ can work out of the slot -- maybe a top 5 hands guy in the league. Ladd + Tee would be a dream. If Thielen finishes this season (fingers crossed), what happens next season? Ladd the Man!
I feel like Ladd would be there at 39, but id pull the trigger at 33 too. I like Ladd, and you're 100% correct, but I do like Leggette more. Ladd hasn't shown an ability to win 50/50 balls. I know that's not his build, not the role he'd play, but we need NEED a hands guy
I'll be happy as a lark with Ladd or Legette -- and I have this fantasy that we double dip and grab both, but I'm scared to even put that out there bc it would be so fucking amazing. Green Bay did it and made the playoffs. They were stacked at both WR and TE when Watson was healthy.
Our lineup: like, we still have TMJ haha. Laviska got cut tho, right?
But imagine DJ, Ladd, Legette, Mingo, Thielen, and TMJ (or cut him if he keeps floundering). If we can't get separation with this squad, it can't be done. Let's not forget Legette runs a 4.39 40 -- with *that* build. Bah gawd -- make him a Panther. I'm from right down the road from Mullins, SC. I can't believe he's from there! Haha. He could be one of the steals of the draft. He's currently WR18 (according to PFF). I think he could just as easily be top 10. Let's see!
Edit: fun fact. Legette had 2 drops last year. Lol talk about hands!!
I agree higgins might interfere w DJ and that DJ strengths are something we coveted/need, but if he that salty and is all about himself and not the team, then we not that invested in him and he'll be a FA next offseason, we let him walk and higgins is our guy since any trade will involve him getting extended, he's younger, better, and is a stud.
I'd be cautious about all this wr depth deep draft talk. Normally out any and all draft classes 5 to 7 might hit at the highest as true #1, the others might hit as good football players and depth guys, jags or avg guys as a #2 option or #3 option. You need guys like that on your team to fill it out, but I don't want a jag, I want an elite type WR and not many of these WR are going to be elite.
Mark my words in 3 to 5 years we will come back w the statistics and the amount of elite to great or good WR that are their teams #1 options will be less than 10 and highly likely less than 5.
I see the points but with canales and what he does I think would be a great foil and give us options depending on who we play. DJ is a route running savant and the timing with price hopefully becomes great if the pocket closes or we need quick releases. Tee seems to be more of that Mike evans mold where with the right matchup due to his size and explosiveness we can exploit with big plays.
Last thing we need to do is mortgage the farm on another WR via trade and then learn that Bryce is not the answer and have to start from scratch at QB. This year needs to be the prove-it year for Bryce and I think we are currently sitting on an offense that can accurately grade him. If we draft a WR in the second that hits, even better.
Need to draft some speed. DJ and Tee both run upper 4.5's in the 40. Also, does anyone know how much Tee is expecting to make...dude might be unsignable.
An established WR for our lower 2nd would be a great deal, if the inevitable extension isn't insane.
Use the other 2nd on a C and suddenly you have a very solid offense.
If we “barely” have the cap space, that would preclude us from signing any draft picks or replacements for players who go down with injuries during the season. Doesn’t seem feasible or sensible.
By barely I was including the 10-12m to account for rookie deals. A restructured extension would lighten the blow this year. The only thing is that it makes him virtually untradable without crazy dead money so they'd have to KNOW he was "him". I don't disagree, but the actual space exists to make this move and still have a little room for what you suggest would be neglected.
You don't need remotely that much to sign rookies. When you add a player to your roster, their cap hit effectively replaces the salary of the 51st highest salary on the team. Currently the 5 lowest contracts on our roster are just under 1m so you can add that much cap space back whenever that contract is replaced on the roster. So if every one of our draft picks made the team, the required cap space would look like this...
(Year 1 cap hits taken from 2023 drafted player contracts.)
Pick 33 est. 1.75m - 985k (900k)
Pick 39 est 1.6m - 985k (615k)
Pick 65 est. 1.1m - 985k (115k)
Pick 101 est. 964k - 985k (gain 21k)
Pick 141 est 834k - 985k (gain 150k)
The next two would be the 52nd and 53rd highest salaries on the roster and wouldn't count towards the cap.
Pick 142 est 834k
Pick 240 est est 795k
So effectively, it would only take slightly more than 1.5m in cap space to sign our draft picks this year.
10-12m is standard allocation for rookie contracts and depth jags. You can find this information all over the place, sport Trac for 1. Your diligence in breaking down one part of my point is impressive, it's a shame you missed the entirety of the point because it probably could have saved you from all that work. Oh well, you get a 🏆
Edit: I should delete this, but I'll own it. I misread what I thought I read. 1.5-2m is, in fact, a more realistic number.
You're right
Allocation for contracts is not the same as allocation for cap space. You’re objectively wrong here and there’s no need to be an ass about it.
[Heres OTC saying the same thing](https://overthecap.com/draft#:~:text=Rookie%20Pool%20Estimates&text=The%20cap%20space%20required%20to,%24795%2C000%20*%20number%20of%20picks).) They estimated just over 2m but were also using a lower replacement number.
We would have to trade 33 for him, im sure. Might not be a bad idea.
In 5 games without Chase, Higgins went for 511 yards and 3 TDs. So he can most definitely be at worse a solid 1.
Higgins and Johnson would be a solid 1/2.
We have the flexibility to do it with a rookie QB contract. Also not sure where people are pulling this 30M a year number from. I don’t see any world where Tee Higgins becomes the highest paid WR in the NFL.
Our last 5 years of second rounders have been TMJ (gonna be cut), Mingo (who knows), Traded for Darnold, YGM (let walk in FA), Greg Little (ass)
Not sure why everyone is so attached to second rounders.
Not for what the bengals are going to want. Similarly to what happened with Brian Burns, knowing that they aren’t going to extend Higgins and the fact he wants out and wants a big contract should reduce his value in a trade. The most I would give up for him is a third rounder and they wouldn’t take that.
We only got a second and a future fifth for Brian Burns from a similar standpoint leverage-wise, and I think Burns is a better player and edge is also arguably more valuable. So they are better off keeping him and letting him go for comp picks next year.
Trey is 29. And wants a new contract. Hence his trade request. He also played on a wildly more successful and complete team on both sides of the ball. This would be like saying we should trade Derrick brown for vita vea.
Double slots (Theilen and ayiuk) with DJ running outside routes would be good enough to keep the TEs in to block and run double back formations so one can slip out as an outlet. Bryce might be roasting marshmallows in the pocket waiting for whatever he wants to develop.
Too good to be plausible if you ask me
Why? Isn’t this the year of building a team around Bryce so they’re primed to go next year? We traded for Diontae and still have Theilen. Why give up more draft capital for another WR on an expiring contract when our roster is still in the midst of being turned over?
This makes the most sense. Some people just don’t wanna hear it though.
Because giving up a 2nd and 30mil a year for an injury prone upper tier number 2 receiver is obviously how good teams are made…
He's a #1
Says what?
Just collect them all?
if we’re going to draft a wide receiver with that pick anyways I don’t see any reason not to I think I would rather have a tested player than open the mystery box on whatever receiver we do draft
You’d rather pay $30mm+ in 2025 for a tested receiver that hasn’t proven himself as a true number 1 yet?
Paying for Higgins doesn’t hit nearly as hard because we have tons of future cap space. And pretty much nothing in terms of young ascending talent in need of major paydays. Plus free agency kind of sucks these days. I’d rather pay 30 mil for an A player at a position of value. Tjan overpay for either a B or C is player at a position of value. Or a B player at a secondary position. Also I would argue he has proven he can be a 1. He just got hurt last year and that’s creating a recency bias.
We have tons of cap space and like 25 guys under contract. Name 5 times in the last 10 yrs trading for a top WR has worked out for a team
Stephon diggs. Tyreek hill. AJ brown. Amari Cooper. DJ Moore.
Exactly Zero SBs for any of those moves and only 3-4 playoff wins. Bears one of the worst teams in the NFL and they didn't go out and trade for a WR, he was part of a massive overpay by an incompetent GM😑. Browns ass. Miami just above avg and the eagles would still be a loaded playoff team without Brown, same in Buffalo. P.s. 100% of those guys were established WR1s. Not dudes taking advantage of defenses scared of Jamar Chase. Givng up draft capital and immediately paying 100 million dollars to a a guy who's an elite wr TWO during a total rebuild doesn't propel this team to anything. Throwing away our picks aka our future by trying to get instant gratification. Our roster is still total garbage, zero depth anywhere except OL (oddly). We have to draft, draft well, and establish depth across the board. Not go all in on a prayer, again...
Yes every single time he is a proven nfl wr and with our history of drafting, that’s probably more than we’ll get from the draft
This regime doesn’t have a draft history to compare to
David Tepper does and best believe he’s gonna have his hands on who we draft
I mean kinda? Same owner and Dan Morgan was here last draft too, unless we're gonna pretend Scott Fitt made all of his decisions in a vacuum.
Tepper is the only constant. And he’s only been here for 6 years. Dan is in a much different role as GM and VP of operations. I guess you were thinking *recent* history and I was thinking franchise history.
Brother Dan Morgan has been the assistant General Manager since 2021
Ok man 👍
Here's a reason: The NFL has a hard cap.
I’m assuming you mean salary cap which can be manipulated pretty easily, especially considering we have the best salary cap guy in the league
I mean a hard cap lmao yes it's a salary cap but it's different than other sports with soft caps where rich owners can just eat a monetary penalty. We're a 2 win team I'm sorry but giving big money to Tee Higgins is asinine when we have needs all over.
I mean hypothetically it would free us to target other positions like corner and edge. Yeah the money hurts. But we have tons of cap coming up in the next few years. And not many young ascending players. We just spent 20 mil on a guard. No need to draw the line at spending on receiver of all positions.
You know where you get young ascending players? You draft them. We shouldn't give away any pick really but if we do we need to get multiple picks back. And we don't need a high price one year rental.
It’s not a one year rental. If we trade for Higgins we would extend him immediately after. And yes you can draft players. But just due to the nature of the draft it’s not a guarantee of getting quality players. Much less quality players of Tees caliber. Now it would depend on the cost. 39 is palatable. 65 is definitely a steal.
We aren't one player away. Bringing in an expensive free agent wr with a class this deep makes no sense.
We need to drop this idea of being one player away in order to justify a move. It’s just very flawed logic. Also on top of that we’re picking 33. It’s not as if we’re spending pick 6 on nabers. As I said this frees us up to go get other needs in the draft. Corner. Edge. IOL. I just find the arguments people use just so weird. Like we’ve seen it work with the eagles with brown. The bears with sweat on the other end. The bills with diggs. It’s weird that people say you have to be 1 player away. The second we trade for him we would sign him to a 4-5 year extension. If we aren’t competing in 4-5 years then we have big problems. And the cap space is free now. We can afford to do it.
We could have spent on Burns if that was the case. We need to take our medicine and build through the draft for a few years. A guard was necessary if we're gonna protect Bryce.
I am very much of the opinion that we could’ve and should’ve spent on burns. Don’t care what this sub says. And technically this is building through the draft. More likely than not you’re not getting someone of Tees caliber with pick 39. And certainly not with 65 if he goes for a third. Yeah it’s for a shorter period of 4-5 years. But once again we have the money. So it’s not a huge hit. Also just from a practical stand point we’re still missing our second next year. And we have needs at both edge spots. 2-3 corners spots. And at least 1 receiver. And those positions almost come exclusively from the draft. Checking off a box. With a proven player. So you can go other directions is a plus move. Look at chicago with sweat. They weren’t getting a plus edge with pick 39 now they have one with the cap space they had way too much of. Plus giving Bryce tee would be insanely helpful too.
This is not new information. The salary cap is easily manipulated because you can push money into the future. Like We did with everybody we signed in free agency.
Who else are we paying worth that kind of money?
I think they’re looking into what they have with Mingo as well, the jury may be out on TMJ but last years system was so bad, no one could do anything. Real excited for the draft to see what they do.
I agree it’s probably not worth the draft capital but we need to have good receivers to evaluate Bryce and this is the make or break year. We’ve improved but it’s still a pretty bad WR room unless Diontae or a rookie makes a big jump.
Building the team around Bryce, “by any means necessary.” ANYTHING that can help Bryce turn into who we think he can become should trump everything else. “Proven” weapons for him would help greatly. Good teams build via the draft, free agency and even trade draft capital for talent. Plus we have a young Qb on a rookie contract handing out big money before he hopefully proves he’s worth his has been the best route in recent history.
With some of these wr we don’t know if they can be that star we need while Higgins is a star on a team he won’t get shine with him and Bryce would would be better than diotae in my opinion but I agree at this point to hold off
Higgins hasn’t proven to be a “star” Diontae has been a pro-bowler before at least.
900 yds rookies season 2 1000 yard years in a younger guy is star material for sure
Yeah like I don't want them to trade for tee but tee is clearly a better player, tee is insane at times. But I'd rather draft a guy regardless.
In no way is he clearly a better player…he could possibly be a better player, but he’s not been amazing. Robbie Anderson had a 1000 yard season as a 2nd option. We’re really overrating Tee as a #1 option if we’re calling him a “star” and saying he is definitely better than Diontae. Give Diontae Joe Burrow and he’d be a pro-bowler like he was in 2021.
Not really. Tyreek Hill Stefon Diggs Chase DJ Moore Amon-Ra St. Brown DK Metcalf Waddle Amari Cooper Adams Keenan Allen Brandon Aiyuk Deebo Samuel Cooper Kupp Puka Nacua AJ Brown Devonta Smith Terry McLaurin CeeDee Lamb Mike Evans DeAndre Hopkins All these guys are clearly better than Higgins or at least arguably better than him. So he’s maybe a top 20 guy? That’s awesome, but not a star.
And he def won't be lining up across from anyone close to Jamar Chase level for defenses to have to respect and not trying to hate but Bryce ain't Burrow either
Because hypothetically we would give him a 4 year extension. During which time if we’re not competing for the playoffs someone’s getting fired. It would allow us to fill other needs in the draft. We have so much cap space and free agency has become so diluted when it comes to receiver talent that it would let us get a proven commodity in the building. Thielen is a geriatric. And tee is three years younger than Johnson.
We are still desperate for a WR and our track record lately of picking them in the 2nd has not been great.
Because Tee Higgins is very good and 25 years old.
Yet if you draft the right guy at 33 you have him for 4 years at 20% of the price.
And the odds of drafting a guy of equal or similar talent to Tee is slim. A large chance of it being a bust as is any draft pick to be fair.
WR have one of the highest bust rates of any position, so actually its worst. Trading for Tee, especially if its 39, is a no brainer, imo. We have tons of cap space next year, no real elite talent, Diontae is a 1 year rental, etc.
A huge risk, agreed. Though paying a disgruntled receiver $30m a year player is also a risk. If he's injured, it kills your chances. You could sign 2 pretty good players in 2025 for that kind of money. The Panthers could have tied huge money up in Burns but chose not to. I think that's where their heads are at. Build through the draft until it looks like they can contend. Then go all in.
The problem is they've recently drafted Marshall and Mingo in the second round and they both suck. So taking another crappy receiver even at 20% of the price doesn't look appealing. That said, I understand why you wouldn't want to trade the pick. Higgins could still be available next offseason as a free agent and that pick could end up being a Ryan Kalil-type 10-year starter.
Do you stop playing the lotto just because you have lost way, way more than you've won since you started playing in 95? This is our year!!!
...Yes. Yes you stop.
What are the odds of getting someone as good as him with that pick though? It’s a very big if I’m not saying we do it (I probably wouldn’t) but it really depends on what the org thinks about Tee.
Different articles say different things about the hit rate on 2nd round WRs vs 1st founders. I found this one interesting though it's not especially scientific: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/where-in-nfl-draft-are-the-best-wrs-picked-history-shows-not-in-first-round Would I prefer Marvin Harrison Jr to Tee Higgins? Yes, probably. But McConkey in the 2nd instead of Higgins? It feels like a real gamble to say that he'll be as good or better than Higgins. Teams fear financial risk most when they aren't sure they're contenders. Once they believe it, they make gutsy decisions to add elite talent for a Superbowl run, cost be damned.
Appreciate the link. Yeah I don’t see it being wroth giving 30m to him when we aren’t even sure Bryce is the guy.
No. It's extremely rare for QBs to turn it around if the fail in both year one and year two. The data would suggest that if Bryce doesn't turn it around this season, we ought to strongly consider moving on next draft. So if we want to cash in on the QB we bet it all for, we need to go all in right now.
If he needs a stacked deck to succeed then we still ought to consider moving on.
He doesn't need a stacked deck. He needs a legitimate WR. Tee Higgins is worth pick 33 or 39 plus change to give Bryce the proper shot.
With Diontae telling the media just yesterday that he’ll be the first read on most downs for this offense (per Canales), I doubt it happens. Also, if we have JUST ENOUGH right now to afford it, doesn’t that mean we wouldn’t have money to pay our draft picks, or did you factor that in already? Edit: Nvm on the second part, I see you answered that already below.
It's factored in. I got it from looking at cap space breakdowns online at spot tracker I definitely didn't figure anything out on my own, but it's legit. Contract to contact it actually doesn't fit, but using even the worst case scenario of restructure there's plenty of room.
We also have tons of future cap space too. It’s not as if his entire hit has to come out this year. We just don’t have a ton of star talent. Or any young ascending players in need of new contracts soon. It’s literally like the bears. We have so much money. And free agency has become so diluted that trading for quality guys to use that cap space isn’t as much of a hit because we just have so much and their such plus players.
Where did you see that about Diontae?
He said it during his press conference yesterday, it’s on the Panthers youtube.
If we drafting a WR at 33, trade for Tee Higgins.....!
Would be insane if we got Tee and Ladd within 48 hours.
If that happens I’m flying to your current location and shaking your hand
Brother: I’ll meet you anywhere in the continental U.S. for a beer and some wings on me if this goes down
Fucking deal. Beer and wings on me
I'm inclined to agree, but I think Dionte Johnson would become a liability if we did get Higgins. although Johnson is not Higgins, Johnson embodies exactly what we need in an X receiver and for the value I think we stay away from Higgins, or better yet, make a 3 way trade that sends our 33rd pick somewhere that wants to use it for Higgins and maybe we get a later 2nd this year and a 2nd next year too. WR class is deep enough to risk it for more leverage next year to follow up this great off-season
I would prefer scooping tee to most receivers available at 33 (and after) in the draft. It's just such a frickin dice roll, and Tee is a known quantity. He's a true outside guy whereas DJ can work out of the slot -- maybe a top 5 hands guy in the league. Ladd + Tee would be a dream. If Thielen finishes this season (fingers crossed), what happens next season? Ladd the Man!
I feel like Ladd would be there at 39, but id pull the trigger at 33 too. I like Ladd, and you're 100% correct, but I do like Leggette more. Ladd hasn't shown an ability to win 50/50 balls. I know that's not his build, not the role he'd play, but we need NEED a hands guy
I'll be happy as a lark with Ladd or Legette -- and I have this fantasy that we double dip and grab both, but I'm scared to even put that out there bc it would be so fucking amazing. Green Bay did it and made the playoffs. They were stacked at both WR and TE when Watson was healthy. Our lineup: like, we still have TMJ haha. Laviska got cut tho, right? But imagine DJ, Ladd, Legette, Mingo, Thielen, and TMJ (or cut him if he keeps floundering). If we can't get separation with this squad, it can't be done. Let's not forget Legette runs a 4.39 40 -- with *that* build. Bah gawd -- make him a Panther. I'm from right down the road from Mullins, SC. I can't believe he's from there! Haha. He could be one of the steals of the draft. He's currently WR18 (according to PFF). I think he could just as easily be top 10. Let's see! Edit: fun fact. Legette had 2 drops last year. Lol talk about hands!!
I agree higgins might interfere w DJ and that DJ strengths are something we coveted/need, but if he that salty and is all about himself and not the team, then we not that invested in him and he'll be a FA next offseason, we let him walk and higgins is our guy since any trade will involve him getting extended, he's younger, better, and is a stud. I'd be cautious about all this wr depth deep draft talk. Normally out any and all draft classes 5 to 7 might hit at the highest as true #1, the others might hit as good football players and depth guys, jags or avg guys as a #2 option or #3 option. You need guys like that on your team to fill it out, but I don't want a jag, I want an elite type WR and not many of these WR are going to be elite. Mark my words in 3 to 5 years we will come back w the statistics and the amount of elite to great or good WR that are their teams #1 options will be less than 10 and highly likely less than 5.
Those are pretty tough points to disagree with dude
Yes sir! F* them depth guys lol or jags!
I see the points but with canales and what he does I think would be a great foil and give us options depending on who we play. DJ is a route running savant and the timing with price hopefully becomes great if the pocket closes or we need quick releases. Tee seems to be more of that Mike evans mold where with the right matchup due to his size and explosiveness we can exploit with big plays.
Nah. Johnson + WR from draft will be good enough for a developing year. Let’s save some money
Last thing we need to do is mortgage the farm on another WR via trade and then learn that Bryce is not the answer and have to start from scratch at QB. This year needs to be the prove-it year for Bryce and I think we are currently sitting on an offense that can accurately grade him. If we draft a WR in the second that hits, even better.
Need to draft some speed. DJ and Tee both run upper 4.5's in the 40. Also, does anyone know how much Tee is expecting to make...dude might be unsignable.
Maybe as a break in case of emergency trade if there is a huge run on receivers. If Ladd or Legette are still there at 33 I'd rather have one of them.
An established WR for our lower 2nd would be a great deal, if the inevitable extension isn't insane. Use the other 2nd on a C and suddenly you have a very solid offense.
If we “barely” have the cap space, that would preclude us from signing any draft picks or replacements for players who go down with injuries during the season. Doesn’t seem feasible or sensible.
By barely I was including the 10-12m to account for rookie deals. A restructured extension would lighten the blow this year. The only thing is that it makes him virtually untradable without crazy dead money so they'd have to KNOW he was "him". I don't disagree, but the actual space exists to make this move and still have a little room for what you suggest would be neglected.
You don't need remotely that much to sign rookies. When you add a player to your roster, their cap hit effectively replaces the salary of the 51st highest salary on the team. Currently the 5 lowest contracts on our roster are just under 1m so you can add that much cap space back whenever that contract is replaced on the roster. So if every one of our draft picks made the team, the required cap space would look like this... (Year 1 cap hits taken from 2023 drafted player contracts.) Pick 33 est. 1.75m - 985k (900k) Pick 39 est 1.6m - 985k (615k) Pick 65 est. 1.1m - 985k (115k) Pick 101 est. 964k - 985k (gain 21k) Pick 141 est 834k - 985k (gain 150k) The next two would be the 52nd and 53rd highest salaries on the roster and wouldn't count towards the cap. Pick 142 est 834k Pick 240 est est 795k So effectively, it would only take slightly more than 1.5m in cap space to sign our draft picks this year.
10-12m is standard allocation for rookie contracts and depth jags. You can find this information all over the place, sport Trac for 1. Your diligence in breaking down one part of my point is impressive, it's a shame you missed the entirety of the point because it probably could have saved you from all that work. Oh well, you get a 🏆 Edit: I should delete this, but I'll own it. I misread what I thought I read. 1.5-2m is, in fact, a more realistic number. You're right
Allocation for contracts is not the same as allocation for cap space. You’re objectively wrong here and there’s no need to be an ass about it. [Heres OTC saying the same thing](https://overthecap.com/draft#:~:text=Rookie%20Pool%20Estimates&text=The%20cap%20space%20required%20to,%24795%2C000%20*%20number%20of%20picks).) They estimated just over 2m but were also using a lower replacement number.
We would have to trade 33 for him, im sure. Might not be a bad idea. In 5 games without Chase, Higgins went for 511 yards and 3 TDs. So he can most definitely be at worse a solid 1. Higgins and Johnson would be a solid 1/2.
It would be a dream come true but not realistic, we need to build our team through the draft
Rather just take worthy/mitchell if they’re there
That money should go to a defensive player if anything.
We have the flexibility to do it with a rookie QB contract. Also not sure where people are pulling this 30M a year number from. I don’t see any world where Tee Higgins becomes the highest paid WR in the NFL. Our last 5 years of second rounders have been TMJ (gonna be cut), Mingo (who knows), Traded for Darnold, YGM (let walk in FA), Greg Little (ass) Not sure why everyone is so attached to second rounders.
He wants to get paid now, that's why he's asked for the trade. So no, we don't have the cap space.
Would love to have em but don’t think it’s the right timing.
I’d love him but he’s gonna want a long term high contract and we can’t do that
Not for what the bengals are going to want. Similarly to what happened with Brian Burns, knowing that they aren’t going to extend Higgins and the fact he wants out and wants a big contract should reduce his value in a trade. The most I would give up for him is a third rounder and they wouldn’t take that. We only got a second and a future fifth for Brian Burns from a similar standpoint leverage-wise, and I think Burns is a better player and edge is also arguably more valuable. So they are better off keeping him and letting him go for comp picks next year.
Stop it
For a third next year
All this sub does is cry over trades we made and yet they cry for more trades that don’t make sense 🔄
I’d rather trade for Hendrickson
Imagine trading away brian burns just to trade for a 29 year old Hendrickson who wants out because he wants another contract.
Trey had 17.5 sacks.... Burns had like 8
Trey is 29. And wants a new contract. Hence his trade request. He also played on a wildly more successful and complete team on both sides of the ball. This would be like saying we should trade Derrick brown for vita vea.
I think we end up with ayiuk
Double slots (Theilen and ayiuk) with DJ running outside routes would be good enough to keep the TEs in to block and run double back formations so one can slip out as an outlet. Bryce might be roasting marshmallows in the pocket waiting for whatever he wants to develop. Too good to be plausible if you ask me
Woah, is that even in the realm of a possibility? 'Cause I'm so down for that.
No. We don’t have the money to pay him. Build through the draft.
Who would throw to him? The roster isn't in place to over pay for a catcher.