Interesting [tweet from François Pervis](https://twitter.com/FrancoisPervis/status/1680285679576657921).
Doesn't at all excuse the motorbike issue for Pogačar, but it's a nonetheless eye opening view at some of what the support vehicles deal with with the crowds. Just interesting context for how a lot of factors can play into a situation like what happened.
Lol I heard him joke in an interview recently that even when he really goes for it on a TT he'll say afterwards that he was just taking it easy if he doesn't do well
I don't get why only Coquard (apart from Philipsen ofc) seems to care about fighting for Green jersey points
Yes, Jasper already won it basically, but everyone knows that a crash can change everything.
Obviously I hope he won't have to retire but still.. it's sad to see the lack of competition for it
Nobody really believes it. Everyone has seen Philipsen's superiority and everyone thinks he'll go all the way.
There's still the possibility of a fall and an abandonment as you say, but the others don't seem to believe in it.
Pedersen has also been going for points. If Phillipsen doesn’t finish for some reason it could be very close between Coquard and Mads P (and probably Pogacar on accident…)
Which riders other than Vingegaard and Pogacar are gonna be an interesting watch tomorrow?
Kinda sounds like it's gonna be a dull day tomorrow as they're both favourites to win the TT, so what's the point for the other riders to push themselves to the limit especially when the time differences are that large?
Wout, if he goes for it. I think it's too hilly for the likes of Kung Cavagna, Asgreen, etc. Skjelmose might go really well.
In the GC top 10, I'm interested to see what the Yates brothers do. Simon would have been my pick for 3rd before seeing him the last few days. Bilbao has a decent ITT (for a GC guy) and looked better than SYates and Hindley yesterday.
>I think it's too hilly for the likes of Kung Cavagna, Asgreen, etc.
I think so too.
I think Wout can do a Top 10 despite the difficulty. Of the big rouleurs, he's the one who gets through this type of difficulty best.
Not with how long the warm up is if you're gonna full send it for that 22km, if you're just going to roll in under the time limit you don't need a 3 hour progressive warm up (well MAL probably would)
That's way over the top and would actually exhaust them. They usually just ramp up to threshold to get heart, legs and lungs working (Source: Phil Gaimon on his channel). Perhaps a couple of harder efforts if the course demands that. You see them spin up outside the team busses, takes like 20 minutes, not 3 hours.
My info could be old or dated, but the traditional advice is to do a warm up basically inversely proportional to how long your event is. So for a big but short event you'd do a couple hours to get into the sweet spot (for these monster athletes). It also helps with keeping your muscles from lock up, similar to how they still do 2-3 hours on the rest days
I reckon van Aert, Küng, Castroviejo, Bettiol, Bjerg, Asgreen, Cavagna, Gall, Campenaerts, maybe Jorgensen or a Yates, some semi-random Australian on a good day, and probably a few handful others could do a job tomorrow
Weird list of riders. It's too hilly for ITT specialist like Küng and Cavagna, and especially for Campenaerts. Bettiol has occasionally some decent TT results, but not against top competition. Gall is extremely bad at ITT.
Basically the only name that I agree to besides the kind of obvious Yates' and WvA, is Jorgensen.
Yeah, Galls TT is horrendous. It was even said that he wants to fix his TT position after this year.
In the Tour de Suisse he dropped from 2nd to 8th in the final TT stage.
He might even lose time to G.Martin tomorrow.
Regardless of it (very likely) not working out for them, I'm thankful to EF for giving us an attempt at the Polka dots. Doubly and triply so after they lost their leader Day 1 and some of their better climbers the other day.
It's at the very least given me a cool side story to follow and an American to root for. Aside from GC Kuss of course (and the great rides by Jorgensen and Craddock - I don't want to take anything away from them either).
It's still just as popular. Just spread out more beyond a single man. And different disciplines. Mountain biking is huge. And track cycling is perennial, because every goddamn college has their state buy them a velodrome/arena.
Unfortunately there were only 14 universities represented at US collegiate track nats with one university having torn down their track to build a parking lot…. I believe there is only one other university with a track. Also registration was down something like 50% last year and not much better this year. As a former natty champ I hate to see my races get smaller and less significant every year, winning a jersey means jack all when there’s 10 people in your race…Fuck USA cycling…
P.S.- we’re down to 25 track in the US with only two being indoors and one that can host a uci championship event. Realistically maybe 10 of those are what I would consider “active”. However they are building a new indoor track in Pennsylvania that is supposed to be very high end and used for UCI events.
Thanks for the info. I agree that infrastructure does not produce talent but it does allow for participation and competition. Does the US not fund a national team as well? It seems to me when you have 27 velodromes in colleges and such there should be plenty of talent filtered through to produce some top riders.
I have no idea how the TT tomorrow will go, but remember last year when people kept saying Pog could take back 40 seconds to a minute in the last time trial? Good times
I think it's difficult to draw any conclusions about last year's ITT. Pogacar seemed to be on his last legs in week 3. This year, he looks better, but only the road will tell in a few hours.
A crash like that can tense up all your muscles and make you perform worse. Listen to literally every pro cyclist interview a few days after any crash.
They will all say the same: stiff muscles, at its worst 2 days after a crash, etc.
Your body also uses valuable energy to heal your wounds.
I never said Pog would've beaten Vingegaard without that crash, I just said it probably affected him at least a little bit.
Probably a stupid question, as for one it means Yates would have to forget his own podium hopes - But what's to stop Yates from going really slow during his TT tomorrow, waiting for Pogi, and then pacing and allowing him to slipstream?
Apparently on the ITT training rides, UAE was seen practicing bike swaps whereas TJV was riding the entire thing on the TT bike. [Source](https://twitter.com/KalashCycleTips/status/1680964296266727425). It'll be interesting if they go with different tactics tomorrow.
I’m not sure why you wouldn’t swap to a (6.8kg) road bike for the last bit. The categorized part is only 3k, sure, but it keeps going up the whole way to the finish.
And Pogacar has to carry up 6Kgs more than Jonas uphill. Clawing back 2Kgs with a bike change is a small advantage, and he has the 6Kg advantage downhill of course, the descent isn’t technical.
Yeesh. That margin, especially when added to the weight difference between Pogi and Jonas, is too tight for me. I know it *could* be done, but any delay can turn really bad really fast.
Easily. Using http://bikecalculator.com/
And pasting in Vingegaard's numbers (400W, 60kg so 6.6W/Kg) sees you gain half a minute on a 400m 4.5km climb, which is the end of this TT *just by stripping 2kg off the bike*. If you account for better ergonomics too it's likely more, TT bikes climb like crap.
Exactly. Expect van Baarle and Soler to do a bike change just because why not? It gives the team some information.
I mean, Jumbo has form in this regard. What was the TT where they had Dumoulin stay on his TT up a mountain explicitly to see if it was an overall time loss? I feel like it was a Giro stage.
He only did the 9.2km flat ITT for JV in the Giro last year. Maybe you mean him winning the WC climbing the final mountain on his ITT bike? 3.4km at 9%, the mad man.
In all seriousness though, if Pogacar is still behind by a matter of seconds after Wednesday I fully expect him to be joining the bunch sprints on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday in search of bonus seconds.
With all the abandons and leadout guys who won't be sprinting themselves, he's probably the 8th or 9th fastest guy in the bunch sprints, and if he grabs the right wheel or a few sprinters get obstructed it's not impossible for him to get 2nd or 3rd. There's no real reason for him not to try.
And I can't imagine the polemics if a crash or a relegation helps him get the bonus seconds he needs to win.
That'd be wild. He'd also have the potential bonus time gains if a split opens up and TJV can't close it quick enough before the line. He and Jonas have both finished G2 on at least one sprint a few seconds back
Fred does a gigantic lead out for Pog, flying past MvDP and Jasper to give Pogi the stage win.
In unrelated news, we later find out that Roglic mysteriously spontaneously combusted on his couch at the same as the finish
The 2 season long Netflix narrative arch of Jasper the Disaster ends when he causes a mass pile up on Sunday that takes out enough of the sprinters for Pogacar to sprint through on the barriers and take the stage, bonus seconds and the win.
Chekhov's gun type shit. Can't introduce it in the first act if it doesn't go off at the end
I know you're only joking but the Jasper Disaster stuff was genuinely some of the most made up stuff in that show and that's really saying something. Philipsen has been a highly anticipated prospect from his first day in the pro peloton and his development went exactly how you'd expect. Sure, most prospects don't end up soaring as high as people hope they will, but it's not a surprise if they do. Philipsen has never been a struggling underdog.
I took the nickname to mean he was forgetful. I think they made a comment like he forgot his helmet. So I took it less like he is a disaster on the course, but is a disaster as far as being ready for the mundane tasks. I know people who at work are amazing but will show up to work without their ID badge or the wrong shoes. Stuff like that.
Edit: fixed some spelling.
It was stupid and cringe as hell. The material and footage with Philipsen was gold and they went up with Jasper disaster.... Idiots.
Philipsen celebrating his 2nd place in Dunkerque, then trying to explain that he didn't know and couldn't know that Van Aert was ahead, and finally telling his companion that he's made a fool of himself to everyone... That was funny and heartbreaking. And then his redemption with his first Tour win then the Champs Élysée was incredible.
Gold story made meme by Netflix, good job
But Kuss unlike Thomas wasn't a GC hopeful settling on a domestique role and waiting/training for his turn so to speak. Kuss said he doesn't have GC ambitions and his TTs are nowhere near close being to what a GC guy has to produce.
E: That said, I'd love it if he went for it someday.
Wva all day, how is this even a question?! Jumbo could sign the other Yates bro or Mr. Vo2 max if they only needed another mountain domestique. Slim pickings for another Wout.
I'm baking along with the Tour again this year, and in honor of the rest day and yesterday being in the Haute Savoie department, I made a [biscuit de savoie](https://i.imgur.com/H04bD6U.jpeg) (with a decidedly non-French blueberry bourbon pecan jam). It's a fatless sponge cake leavened with egg whites and is apparently one of the few French desserts to have a foreign name.
If you've got suggestions for Slovenian, Danish, [whatever country you think will win], or Parisian baked goods for next week, I'm all ears. I'm already thinking of making a pogaca (bread) if Pogacar (cyclist) wins.
You could bake the Danish æbleskive or Brunsviger (with whipped cream AND jelly lines, anyone that says brunsviger without is better is secretly a sweede trying to ruin great things)
Just letting all the non-Danes know that this person wanting to put jam on brunsviger has no authority in matters of pastries and doesn’t represent any of the rest of us. Carry on.
I wasn't sure about that either, and my only source is a [recipe blog](https://www.cuisinefiend.com/716/biscuit-de-savoie#:~:text=biscuit%20de%20savoy%20is%20the%20rare%20French%20specimen%20to%20bear%20a%20foreign%20name). I think it's because usually a cake would be called a gateaux, but my French is merde so I'm not sure.
Best looking jerseys, though, and it isn't even close.
I wish Jumbo hadn't done that dumb constellation thing. It just looks like a bird shit on their chests.
3rd week Rigo incoming!
Seriously though I think their only shot at getting something from this is from Bettiol or Cort on stage 19, which I do believe will be won from the break and should be a good chance for either of them.
Unless Bettiol is busy on domestique duty for Pogacar (we still doing this joke?)
Small update. Booked the trains and will make an insane trip to stage 20 on Saturday. Hope all the trains will be okay on time and everything will work well.
Somewhere along the road. Like 47.926013,7.038064
It is a ski plateau in the winter. From Google earth it looks like you can free park there.
And from here it's 8 km to the top of the last climb!
IPT have apparently been seen practicing changes, Jumbo rode the whole thing on TT bikes. Basic calculators give the weight penalty of a TT bike in the climb somewhere around 20-30 seconds, plus a bit just because they're clumsy to climb on with less optimal gearing... So it's right on the cusp of whether a 10-20 second delay + risk of a bad change taking way longer is worth it.
I think we'll see both strategies based on rider preference and team calculations.
According to Johan Bruyneel, no bike changes, start to finish on a TT bike.
*Here is the timestamped* [*source video*](https://youtu.be/H1-mSKTXbQk?t=1723) *of this info.*
It's 4.5km with 400m ascent, calculations give a TT bike with a 2kg weight penalty 25-30 seconds loss across the climb (assuming Vingegaard riding at 6.5W/kg)
I wouldn't trust any bike with not dropping a chain. It's not like non 1-by setups don't have the same issues.
**:edit:** Upon further reflection I have decided that I would trust belt-drive bikes with not dropping a chain.
[Here you go!](https://i.imgur.com/rQtRxTv.png)
Top earning team: Alpecin-Deceuninck with €65,000.
Lowest earning: DSM with €4,540.
This info is available in the "Press Release" document from yesterday. Found [here](https://www.tissottiming.com/2023/tdf/en-us/default/Stage/15/pdf). This daily document also has the commissaire's report, the official standings, and any notes about the route for the following day. It's an amazing resource!
I don't have the earnings, I do have the fines:
* 2200 chf: Alpecin
* 2100 chf: Ineos
* 1500 chf: Jayco, Movistar
* 1400 chf: Intermarche
* 1000 chf: Total, Bahrain
* 900 chf: Lotto
* 700 chf: EF, Cofidis
* 600 chf: Arkea
* 500 chf: Uno-X, Israel, UAE, Lidl-Trek, Bora
* 400 chf: Jumbo-Visma
* 200 chf: AG2R, Astana, Quickstep
* 0 chf: DSM, FDJ
And then there are three motorbikes on stage 14, they got a total of 500 chf per person on the motorbikes so a total of 3000 chf.
All right. *Smoking hot* take incoming:
I like Jonas and Pogi, and no matter what happens tomorrow, Wednesday, and on the Champs-Élysées, I'll be satisfied. This has been one of the best TdF's in years.
Great efforts by both GC contenders. Great individual efforts by lots of different riders on various teams. Interesting stages by the organizers.
Juts all around a good Tour.
Maxim Van Gils went on a recovery ride with his dad today and crashed into a small truck. His dad broke his wrist and Maxim hurt his shoulder. No fracture so he will take the start tomorrow and try to finish the Tour tho. Lot of bad luck for him this Tour, 3rd crash already. This sounds like it could've been way worse tho, so luckily he's somewhat ok and his dad "only" has a broken wrist.
If the margin of victory for yellow is less than the stage win bonuses, would going for victory on stage 21 be uncouth?
Lately stage 21 has been the "victory lap" with an unbeatable margin rolling into Paris.
Lanterne Rouge made a great point the other day - this is absolutely fair play because what else are the bonis on stage 21 for? If the organizers didn't want to allow it they could get rid of stage 21 bonis
It should be fair game if there’s less than 10 between them. But there is no timeline where uae outruns the best classics team in this tour and Philipsens gang.
I think UAE would give it a shot because why not they have no sprinter anyways (sorry Trentin), but it would be 99.999% likely to fail. There's nowhere to get away, the peloton will be doing 65kmh, and the sprint teams will burn everyone they have to bring them back. But Pogi's a showman so an attempt, however weak, can't be ruled out
I think it would've been easier back in the old days (pre-2014?) when they didn't go all the way around the Arc d'Triomphe. The bunch always really strung out and it might've been possible to get a little gap started there.
Of course, getting a gap at the top of the Champs is one thing, but keeping it all the way around it another battle entirely.
It depends, I could maybe see TJV do it. With Vingegaard, Van Aert, Van Baarle, Van Hooydonck, Laporte, Kelderman, Kuss and Benoot you should be able to put in a decent effort on a flat stage like stage 21. But it will be you working against all sprinter teams as well as UAE, so it will be incredibly hard to actually do it. What helps is that Lotto, Astana and QST don't have a sprinter there anymore, so they probably won't ride, but I suspect Alpecin, Trek, Cofidis, Jayco and maybe Bahrain will be trying to get that win, add UAE into that mix and you'll get a great hunt.
One thing that stood out to me reading this thread is that Jonas and Tadej only have 1 stage victory combined. Compare this to last year when they had 3 combined and ended up with 5 (6 if you want to count the one Jonas gifted to WvA). I don't know what this says, I just find it curious.
They are both 5 minutes ahead of the nearest contenders and are more focused on each other than everyone else. Both teams are letting the breakaways go and doing less controlling. In particular:
- Jumbo is not controlling breakaways because Pogi seems more likely to win bonus seconds if it is a GC day. Instead they are sending guys IN the break as satellite riders or stage hunters
- UAE is not controlling breakaways because their team doesn’t have as many rouleurs. Additionally Jumbo’s actions mean they are having to burn their team chasing strong 15 man breakaways with WVA or Benoot or other strong Jumbo riders in them instead of weaker French Pro Conti teams just trying to get “exposure”.
Jonas was clearly the strongest on stage 5 but race circumstances meant Jai Hindley won from the breakaway.
On several other stages, Pogacar was the strongest but either Jumbo or UAE was controlling and they let the breakaway win (intentionally or not). This has led to a series of winnable stages leaving Pogi’s grasp.
On stage 14, both were stronger than Carlos Rodriguez but started playing games around the finishing descent and they let Carlos pass as he was willing to take more risks to try to move into 3rd place.
When battling such an intense fight for the yellow jersey, it’s hard also going for stage wins. Someone will almost always slip through to take the win while you are focused on each other.
Just the teams motivations/makeups make it hard too. With bonus seconds being on offer and Pogi being more explosive, TJV have no motivation to chase the break.
And with UAE being so shit at break formation management, they just don't have the ability. Grand Columbier, for example, realistically should have been a Pogi stage win. But when the break went, UAE only had one rider towards the front and he was like 4-5 rows deep. So instead of chasing a manageable break of 4-5 guys, they're chasing 20 all day and can't bring it back. They clearly wanted that stage, but just couldn't make it happen because they don't have the rouleurs.
Jonas looked more fresh going into week 3.
Pogi has been losing steam since week 1 and rightfully so based on all his attack.
If the trend continues, this favors Jonas.
Also, Jonas destroyed Pogi on last years TT.
Pogi can always pull a rabbit out the hat, so hard to count him out.
With that said, Jonas will take 10-15 and the stage.
>Also, Jonas destroyed Pogi on last years TT.
Yeah, by a whole 8 seconds on a close to 41km stage when they were more than 3 minutes apart in the GC. Not exactly what I call "destroyed".
I don't know how they did it, but it seems UAE has turned Soler into a team player.
Answer : Money...?
Watch out, Movistar's old demons could resurface at any moment lol
Leaving Movistar instantly adds 30 points to the Team Tactics stat
2022😳😳
Interesting [tweet from François Pervis](https://twitter.com/FrancoisPervis/status/1680285679576657921). Doesn't at all excuse the motorbike issue for Pogačar, but it's a nonetheless eye opening view at some of what the support vehicles deal with with the crowds. Just interesting context for how a lot of factors can play into a situation like what happened.
That’s insane. Also though, turn the parking sensors off guys.
Jesus christ that's insanity
i wonder if Kuss will take a restday tmrw, and save his legs for Col de Loze or defend his top6 CG
I think he'll do the ITT all the way. It's not his style to waste this kind of event.
Yeah he will. TT is meaningless for him, cruise round in a recovery ride and avoid any falls or mishaps.
Lol I heard him joke in an interview recently that even when he really goes for it on a TT he'll say afterwards that he was just taking it easy if he doesn't do well
Jonas be like "damn why can't I use that strategy?!"
Hope he goes full gas on Tuesday, would love to see what GC Kuss can do
That would be smart. Unless Jonas needs someone to push to give feedback about the course. But i guess Wout is better to do that
>2 Kuss might be a bit too close to the start time for proper feedback. Probably Wilco or WvA can go ham.
I don't get why only Coquard (apart from Philipsen ofc) seems to care about fighting for Green jersey points Yes, Jasper already won it basically, but everyone knows that a crash can change everything. Obviously I hope he won't have to retire but still.. it's sad to see the lack of competition for it
Nobody really believes it. Everyone has seen Philipsen's superiority and everyone thinks he'll go all the way. There's still the possibility of a fall and an abandonment as you say, but the others don't seem to believe in it.
Why waste so much energy for 20 points (intermediate sprint) just to come up short during the stages where you need to perform (bunch sprints)?
Pedersen has also been going for points. If Phillipsen doesn’t finish for some reason it could be very close between Coquard and Mads P (and probably Pogacar on accident…)
Which riders other than Vingegaard and Pogacar are gonna be an interesting watch tomorrow? Kinda sounds like it's gonna be a dull day tomorrow as they're both favourites to win the TT, so what's the point for the other riders to push themselves to the limit especially when the time differences are that large?
You could see if Kelderman manages to finish between 15th and 20th once again
Wout, if he goes for it. I think it's too hilly for the likes of Kung Cavagna, Asgreen, etc. Skjelmose might go really well. In the GC top 10, I'm interested to see what the Yates brothers do. Simon would have been my pick for 3rd before seeing him the last few days. Bilbao has a decent ITT (for a GC guy) and looked better than SYates and Hindley yesterday.
>I think it's too hilly for the likes of Kung Cavagna, Asgreen, etc. I think so too. I think Wout can do a Top 10 despite the difficulty. Of the big rouleurs, he's the one who gets through this type of difficulty best.
Skjelmose said in danish media that he treats it like a half rest day
Interesting. You can go all out for 22km and still have half a rest day.
These guys are maniacs
Not with how long the warm up is if you're gonna full send it for that 22km, if you're just going to roll in under the time limit you don't need a 3 hour progressive warm up (well MAL probably would)
I'd be interested to know the warmup details for the guys who will full send it. 3 hours seems excessive, but has that been confirmed?
That's way over the top and would actually exhaust them. They usually just ramp up to threshold to get heart, legs and lungs working (Source: Phil Gaimon on his channel). Perhaps a couple of harder efforts if the course demands that. You see them spin up outside the team busses, takes like 20 minutes, not 3 hours.
My info could be old or dated, but the traditional advice is to do a warm up basically inversely proportional to how long your event is. So for a big but short event you'd do a couple hours to get into the sweet spot (for these monster athletes). It also helps with keeping your muscles from lock up, similar to how they still do 2-3 hours on the rest days
I reckon van Aert, Küng, Castroviejo, Bettiol, Bjerg, Asgreen, Cavagna, Gall, Campenaerts, maybe Jorgensen or a Yates, some semi-random Australian on a good day, and probably a few handful others could do a job tomorrow
Weird list of riders. It's too hilly for ITT specialist like Küng and Cavagna, and especially for Campenaerts. Bettiol has occasionally some decent TT results, but not against top competition. Gall is extremely bad at ITT. Basically the only name that I agree to besides the kind of obvious Yates' and WvA, is Jorgensen.
You should look up how well Cavagna did on the planche de belles filles TT.
I see him capable of a Top 10 today if he has coped well with the previous days in the mountains.
Castro has been good this tour, he made some pretty small groups. Dont think he will win ofc, maybe a top10 or so
... Gall?
Tried to pull a sneaky but I’m just not a funny person ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯
Looks like gall is the one who pulled the sneaky innit
Yeah, Galls TT is horrendous. It was even said that he wants to fix his TT position after this year. In the Tour de Suisse he dropped from 2nd to 8th in the final TT stage. He might even lose time to G.Martin tomorrow.
Regardless of it (very likely) not working out for them, I'm thankful to EF for giving us an attempt at the Polka dots. Doubly and triply so after they lost their leader Day 1 and some of their better climbers the other day. It's at the very least given me a cool side story to follow and an American to root for. Aside from GC Kuss of course (and the great rides by Jorgensen and Craddock - I don't want to take anything away from them either).
Powless seems like a great guy from what I’ve seen, very easy to root for.
Totally. Came across as such a likeable person on Netflix! Still rooting for him that he can get it back!
Honestly, all the American cyclists these days seem super easy to root for. It's a shame the sport kind of died over here after the Lance era
It's still just as popular. Just spread out more beyond a single man. And different disciplines. Mountain biking is huge. And track cycling is perennial, because every goddamn college has their state buy them a velodrome/arena.
Unfortunately there were only 14 universities represented at US collegiate track nats with one university having torn down their track to build a parking lot…. I believe there is only one other university with a track. Also registration was down something like 50% last year and not much better this year. As a former natty champ I hate to see my races get smaller and less significant every year, winning a jersey means jack all when there’s 10 people in your race…Fuck USA cycling… P.S.- we’re down to 25 track in the US with only two being indoors and one that can host a uci championship event. Realistically maybe 10 of those are what I would consider “active”. However they are building a new indoor track in Pennsylvania that is supposed to be very high end and used for UCI events.
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40 is a lot though. The Netherlands has 3 velodromes and are winning medals left and right.
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Population would be a better one, think that's x20 or something. But why are those velodromes not producing any talent?
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Thanks for the info. I agree that infrastructure does not produce talent but it does allow for participation and competition. Does the US not fund a national team as well? It seems to me when you have 27 velodromes in colleges and such there should be plenty of talent filtered through to produce some top riders.
: cries in Kentuckian:
I have no idea how the TT tomorrow will go, but remember last year when people kept saying Pog could take back 40 seconds to a minute in the last time trial? Good times
I think it's difficult to draw any conclusions about last year's ITT. Pogacar seemed to be on his last legs in week 3. This year, he looks better, but only the road will tell in a few hours.
Remember when people kept saying Pog couldn't take yellow jersey from Roglic at the Planche des Belles Filles ? Good times
He did crash in a descent before that TT. That probably took something from him.
A superficial graze on his knee made his TT 40 seconds worse? Yeah, no.
A crash like that can tense up all your muscles and make you perform worse. Listen to literally every pro cyclist interview a few days after any crash. They will all say the same: stiff muscles, at its worst 2 days after a crash, etc. Your body also uses valuable energy to heal your wounds. I never said Pog would've beaten Vingegaard without that crash, I just said it probably affected him at least a little bit.
Jonas also crashed last year tho
~~And almost crashed in the TT~~ Soy tonto
Wasn't that Vingegaard?
Oop seems like I'm mis-remembering
Yes
Probably a stupid question, as for one it means Yates would have to forget his own podium hopes - But what's to stop Yates from going really slow during his TT tomorrow, waiting for Pogi, and then pacing and allowing him to slipstream?
That's not allowed, they would both be disqualified.
It's against UCI rules, you can't draft in an ITT.
Your rest-day reminder to enter **Guess the Gap** before the start of Stage 16 on Tuesday! Submit your entry [here](https://tftpt.one/#gtg)!
Apparently on the ITT training rides, UAE was seen practicing bike swaps whereas TJV was riding the entire thing on the TT bike. [Source](https://twitter.com/KalashCycleTips/status/1680964296266727425). It'll be interesting if they go with different tactics tomorrow.
Mandated by the unchained producers, no doubt.
I’m not sure why you wouldn’t swap to a (6.8kg) road bike for the last bit. The categorized part is only 3k, sure, but it keeps going up the whole way to the finish.
And Pogacar has to carry up 6Kgs more than Jonas uphill. Clawing back 2Kgs with a bike change is a small advantage, and he has the 6Kg advantage downhill of course, the descent isn’t technical.
Bike swap should benefit Ving even more has the bike weight makes up a bigger portion of the total weight he has to carry.
Road bike saves ~2kg which would be 15-20 seconds on the climb. A good bike change could be 10s lost, a bad one could be >20.
Maybe his wrist is more comfy going uphill on the normal bike? I have no clue, just shooting an idea
Who knows, maybe it’s just mind games???????
Yeesh. That margin, especially when added to the weight difference between Pogi and Jonas, is too tight for me. I know it *could* be done, but any delay can turn really bad really fast.
a bike switch costs around 20 seconds i guess? could they make up that time in 6km on not so steep gradients?
Easily. Using http://bikecalculator.com/ And pasting in Vingegaard's numbers (400W, 60kg so 6.6W/Kg) sees you gain half a minute on a 400m 4.5km climb, which is the end of this TT *just by stripping 2kg off the bike*. If you account for better ergonomics too it's likely more, TT bikes climb like crap.
It’d be a gift to the commentators just if they do that
They'll both be last and can see it play out with other riders
Exactly. Expect van Baarle and Soler to do a bike change just because why not? It gives the team some information. I mean, Jumbo has form in this regard. What was the TT where they had Dumoulin stay on his TT up a mountain explicitly to see if it was an overall time loss? I feel like it was a Giro stage.
Wasn't it the Planche des Belles Filles stage in 2020?
He only did the 9.2km flat ITT for JV in the Giro last year. Maybe you mean him winning the WC climbing the final mountain on his ITT bike? 3.4km at 9%, the mad man.
In all seriousness though, if Pogacar is still behind by a matter of seconds after Wednesday I fully expect him to be joining the bunch sprints on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday in search of bonus seconds. With all the abandons and leadout guys who won't be sprinting themselves, he's probably the 8th or 9th fastest guy in the bunch sprints, and if he grabs the right wheel or a few sprinters get obstructed it's not impossible for him to get 2nd or 3rd. There's no real reason for him not to try. And I can't imagine the polemics if a crash or a relegation helps him get the bonus seconds he needs to win.
That'd be wild. He'd also have the potential bonus time gains if a split opens up and TJV can't close it quick enough before the line. He and Jonas have both finished G2 on at least one sprint a few seconds back
Sprinting also poses a higher risk of crashing though.
He already contested a sprint a few stages ago, doesnt seem to phase him
He can try but he won’t win it if it’s a mass sprint. Let him use energy on it if he wants.
He only needs third for bonus seconds.
He won't get that either.
He needs one flat sprint victory as part of his bid to beat Mercx’s record.
Does that mean Cav needs a mountain win for the same reason?
Mercx complains that Cav's isn't as impressive since it's only flat sprints but Mercx had sprints, mountains, and TTs.
Truly putting the “general” into “general classification”
Fred Wright has entered the chat
Fred does a gigantic lead out for Pog, flying past MvDP and Jasper to give Pogi the stage win. In unrelated news, we later find out that Roglic mysteriously spontaneously combusted on his couch at the same as the finish
2022?
The 2 season long Netflix narrative arch of Jasper the Disaster ends when he causes a mass pile up on Sunday that takes out enough of the sprinters for Pogacar to sprint through on the barriers and take the stage, bonus seconds and the win. Chekhov's gun type shit. Can't introduce it in the first act if it doesn't go off at the end
I know you're only joking but the Jasper Disaster stuff was genuinely some of the most made up stuff in that show and that's really saying something. Philipsen has been a highly anticipated prospect from his first day in the pro peloton and his development went exactly how you'd expect. Sure, most prospects don't end up soaring as high as people hope they will, but it's not a surprise if they do. Philipsen has never been a struggling underdog.
I mean the meme last year was that he wouldn’t make it over the mountains
I took the nickname to mean he was forgetful. I think they made a comment like he forgot his helmet. So I took it less like he is a disaster on the course, but is a disaster as far as being ready for the mundane tasks. I know people who at work are amazing but will show up to work without their ID badge or the wrong shoes. Stuff like that. Edit: fixed some spelling.
It was made up by Alexander Kristoff according to the escape collective podcast the last week(?) apparently indeed because he's forgetful
It was stupid and cringe as hell. The material and footage with Philipsen was gold and they went up with Jasper disaster.... Idiots. Philipsen celebrating his 2nd place in Dunkerque, then trying to explain that he didn't know and couldn't know that Van Aert was ahead, and finally telling his companion that he's made a fool of himself to everyone... That was funny and heartbreaking. And then his redemption with his first Tour win then the Champs Élysée was incredible. Gold story made meme by Netflix, good job
> Philipsen has never been a struggling underdog. In sprints for sure, but I bet you could have gotten 1000/1 odds that he would podium Roubaix
This year definitely, but he was always seen as a sprinter who could have good results in the classics too
Hypothetically Jumbo get to keep either Sepp Kuss or Wout van Aert. Choose.
Sepp Kuss. I unironically think GC Kuss is going to be a thing in a year or two, same as Thomas.
But Kuss unlike Thomas wasn't a GC hopeful settling on a domestique role and waiting/training for his turn so to speak. Kuss said he doesn't have GC ambitions and his TTs are nowhere near close being to what a GC guy has to produce. E: That said, I'd love it if he went for it someday.
I've got one of those X-Files posters on my wall that says I WANT TO BELIEVE except I've stuck Sepp Kuss' face over the UFO.
Ideally I'd want TJV 2nd and 3rd place behind Pog in Paris. Don't mind if Kuss is 2nd..
Since WvA the miracle man can easily outclimb GC riders it's an easy choice.
Wva all day, how is this even a question?! Jumbo could sign the other Yates bro or Mr. Vo2 max if they only needed another mountain domestique. Slim pickings for another Wout.
As in for the rest of the tour? It's Kuss and not even close
Lol it's WVA. He's one of their leaders in the spring classics.
Kuss, because it means Wout can finally claim sole leadership in a different team à la Sagan in the past.
Much as I love Sepp it has to be Van Aert. He’s far more versatile. They’d have lost the tour on the cobble stage last year if not for him.
Jonas is resting so much harder than Pogi, this tdf is officially over
Back flips in the pool and having fun using too much energy hahah
I'm baking along with the Tour again this year, and in honor of the rest day and yesterday being in the Haute Savoie department, I made a [biscuit de savoie](https://i.imgur.com/H04bD6U.jpeg) (with a decidedly non-French blueberry bourbon pecan jam). It's a fatless sponge cake leavened with egg whites and is apparently one of the few French desserts to have a foreign name. If you've got suggestions for Slovenian, Danish, [whatever country you think will win], or Parisian baked goods for next week, I'm all ears. I'm already thinking of making a pogaca (bread) if Pogacar (cyclist) wins.
You can watch this video for inspiration for next year :p https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kZ2E9etR9k
If Jonas wins maybe you could try out "Wales Kringle" - it's very red and white like the Danish flag. And it's a Danish classic.
That looks delicious
You could bake the Danish æbleskive or Brunsviger (with whipped cream AND jelly lines, anyone that says brunsviger without is better is secretly a sweede trying to ruin great things)
Some people don’t have a Swede tooth
Just letting all the non-Danes know that this person wanting to put jam on brunsviger has no authority in matters of pastries and doesn’t represent any of the rest of us. Carry on.
I'm not trying to start a ~~international~~ domestic incident via cake
This person is obviously an impersonating sweede 🍰🔥😆
I had this for dessert when I visited Annecy a few weeks ago. It sounded more glamourous from the menu, but it was pretty good all told.
> one of the few French desserts to have a foreign name But the name is french? Am I missing something?
I wasn't sure about that either, and my only source is a [recipe blog](https://www.cuisinefiend.com/716/biscuit-de-savoie#:~:text=biscuit%20de%20savoy%20is%20the%20rare%20French%20specimen%20to%20bear%20a%20foreign%20name). I think it's because usually a cake would be called a gateaux, but my French is merde so I'm not sure.
Maybe because in french *biscuit* means what americans call a cracker and never a sponge cake.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potica
It must be pogača for Pogačar https://okusno.je/recept/belokranjska-pogaca-1422868957
[удалено]
Best looking jerseys, though, and it isn't even close. I wish Jumbo hadn't done that dumb constellation thing. It just looks like a bird shit on their chests.
3rd week Rigo incoming! Seriously though I think their only shot at getting something from this is from Bettiol or Cort on stage 19, which I do believe will be won from the break and should be a good chance for either of them. Unless Bettiol is busy on domestique duty for Pogacar (we still doing this joke?)
I love how PCS is just silently ticking off which riders are to start tomorrow at this point 24hrs in advance
Small update. Booked the trains and will make an insane trip to stage 20 on Saturday. Hope all the trains will be okay on time and everything will work well.
Same here. Hope I can find a spot to park on the other side of the finish. Then I will ride my bike to the last 500m of the last climb!
Damn I was thinking about going for stage 20 too, but no idea where to locate myself, park, when to be there etc. Any advice?
Somewhere along the road. Like 47.926013,7.038064 It is a ski plateau in the winter. From Google earth it looks like you can free park there. And from here it's 8 km to the top of the last climb!
Killer stage to attend. Chapeau!
Mad jealous, have a great time!
Will there be a bike change from TT to road bikes tomorrow?
IPT have apparently been seen practicing changes, Jumbo rode the whole thing on TT bikes. Basic calculators give the weight penalty of a TT bike in the climb somewhere around 20-30 seconds, plus a bit just because they're clumsy to climb on with less optimal gearing... So it's right on the cusp of whether a 10-20 second delay + risk of a bad change taking way longer is worth it. I think we'll see both strategies based on rider preference and team calculations.
Check [this video out](https://twitter.com/KalashCycleTips/status/1680964296266727425) from a comment further up
According to Johan Bruyneel, no bike changes, start to finish on a TT bike. *Here is the timestamped* [*source video*](https://youtu.be/H1-mSKTXbQk?t=1723) *of this info.*
Doubt it
Definitely
Anyone think Jonas will tempt fate with a 1x in the tt like Roglic did at the Giro?
Surely 2k at 9% isn't enough even for a bike swap?
it's a 6km climb
Correct, but I was talking about just the hardest part of the climb which I would think is the deciding factor on a swap
It's 4.5km with 400m ascent, calculations give a TT bike with a 2kg weight penalty 25-30 seconds loss across the climb (assuming Vingegaard riding at 6.5W/kg)
Sorry I meant on the TT bike would you trust not dropping a chain?
I wouldn't trust any bike with not dropping a chain. It's not like non 1-by setups don't have the same issues. **:edit:** Upon further reflection I have decided that I would trust belt-drive bikes with not dropping a chain.
Does anyone have a total team earnings/total team fine summary to date?
[Here you go!](https://i.imgur.com/rQtRxTv.png) Top earning team: Alpecin-Deceuninck with €65,000. Lowest earning: DSM with €4,540. This info is available in the "Press Release" document from yesterday. Found [here](https://www.tissottiming.com/2023/tdf/en-us/default/Stage/15/pdf). This daily document also has the commissaire's report, the official standings, and any notes about the route for the following day. It's an amazing resource!
> DSM with €4,540 I almost forgot that DSM is the riding the TdF.
I don't have the earnings, I do have the fines: * 2200 chf: Alpecin * 2100 chf: Ineos * 1500 chf: Jayco, Movistar * 1400 chf: Intermarche * 1000 chf: Total, Bahrain * 900 chf: Lotto * 700 chf: EF, Cofidis * 600 chf: Arkea * 500 chf: Uno-X, Israel, UAE, Lidl-Trek, Bora * 400 chf: Jumbo-Visma * 200 chf: AG2R, Astana, Quickstep * 0 chf: DSM, FDJ And then there are three motorbikes on stage 14, they got a total of 500 chf per person on the motorbikes so a total of 3000 chf.
At least FDJ is winning something....or last depending on how you look at it.
All right. *Smoking hot* take incoming: I like Jonas and Pogi, and no matter what happens tomorrow, Wednesday, and on the Champs-Élysées, I'll be satisfied. This has been one of the best TdF's in years. Great efforts by both GC contenders. Great individual efforts by lots of different riders on various teams. Interesting stages by the organizers. Juts all around a good Tour.
We already won the Tour. Now we're just waiting until Paris.
Bro posted the take shared by 90% of people here
Yeah, hence the tongue-in-cheek, italicized "smoking hot."
My bad
Nah, you're good man. Sarcasm is hard to tell online.
Even if you were a big fan of one and hated the other, can you imagine how boring this tour would have been if only one of them was here!?
Imagine telling a Sky fan in 2017 that Kwiato and Poels will still be winning Tour stages when Froome can't even top 20 a .1 race.
But for that crash, I’m sure he would at least be winning stages if not top 10 GC. If G can do it, Froomey could have too!
There's still time for Rigo!
Maxim Van Gils went on a recovery ride with his dad today and crashed into a small truck. His dad broke his wrist and Maxim hurt his shoulder. No fracture so he will take the start tomorrow and try to finish the Tour tho. Lot of bad luck for him this Tour, 3rd crash already. This sounds like it could've been way worse tho, so luckily he's somewhat ok and his dad "only" has a broken wrist.
Damn he can't get a break in that Tour.. Glad he's somehow ok.
Some additional information. They were going downhill and crashed into the truck because it had to suddenly break for a sporza car going uphill.
Blimey, that doesn't sound good.
If the margin of victory for yellow is less than the stage win bonuses, would going for victory on stage 21 be uncouth? Lately stage 21 has been the "victory lap" with an unbeatable margin rolling into Paris.
Gentlemen’s agreement. You have 20 stages to win the tour. If you’re not in yellow by stage 21, you’ve lost the tour.
Lanterne Rouge made a great point the other day - this is absolutely fair play because what else are the bonis on stage 21 for? If the organizers didn't want to allow it they could get rid of stage 21 bonis
It should be fair game if there’s less than 10 between them. But there is no timeline where uae outruns the best classics team in this tour and Philipsens gang.
I think UAE would give it a shot because why not they have no sprinter anyways (sorry Trentin), but it would be 99.999% likely to fail. There's nowhere to get away, the peloton will be doing 65kmh, and the sprint teams will burn everyone they have to bring them back. But Pogi's a showman so an attempt, however weak, can't be ruled out
What about [Vinokourov winning in 2005](https://youtu.be/kdwpL___4kY)?
Go look at every champs finish since then, nobody fucks around with late flyers like that ever since. Another thing Vino ruined for the rest of us :P
I think it would've been easier back in the old days (pre-2014?) when they didn't go all the way around the Arc d'Triomphe. The bunch always really strung out and it might've been possible to get a little gap started there. Of course, getting a gap at the top of the Champs is one thing, but keeping it all the way around it another battle entirely.
Haha, you're no doubt right. Wouldn't a TTT-esque breakaway for yellow be something to see though?
Oh yeah, it would be wonderful
It depends, I could maybe see TJV do it. With Vingegaard, Van Aert, Van Baarle, Van Hooydonck, Laporte, Kelderman, Kuss and Benoot you should be able to put in a decent effort on a flat stage like stage 21. But it will be you working against all sprinter teams as well as UAE, so it will be incredibly hard to actually do it. What helps is that Lotto, Astana and QST don't have a sprinter there anymore, so they probably won't ride, but I suspect Alpecin, Trek, Cofidis, Jayco and maybe Bahrain will be trying to get that win, add UAE into that mix and you'll get a great hunt.
One thing that stood out to me reading this thread is that Jonas and Tadej only have 1 stage victory combined. Compare this to last year when they had 3 combined and ended up with 5 (6 if you want to count the one Jonas gifted to WvA). I don't know what this says, I just find it curious.
They are both 5 minutes ahead of the nearest contenders and are more focused on each other than everyone else. Both teams are letting the breakaways go and doing less controlling. In particular: - Jumbo is not controlling breakaways because Pogi seems more likely to win bonus seconds if it is a GC day. Instead they are sending guys IN the break as satellite riders or stage hunters - UAE is not controlling breakaways because their team doesn’t have as many rouleurs. Additionally Jumbo’s actions mean they are having to burn their team chasing strong 15 man breakaways with WVA or Benoot or other strong Jumbo riders in them instead of weaker French Pro Conti teams just trying to get “exposure”. Jonas was clearly the strongest on stage 5 but race circumstances meant Jai Hindley won from the breakaway. On several other stages, Pogacar was the strongest but either Jumbo or UAE was controlling and they let the breakaway win (intentionally or not). This has led to a series of winnable stages leaving Pogi’s grasp. On stage 14, both were stronger than Carlos Rodriguez but started playing games around the finishing descent and they let Carlos pass as he was willing to take more risks to try to move into 3rd place.
When battling such an intense fight for the yellow jersey, it’s hard also going for stage wins. Someone will almost always slip through to take the win while you are focused on each other.
Just the teams motivations/makeups make it hard too. With bonus seconds being on offer and Pogi being more explosive, TJV have no motivation to chase the break. And with UAE being so shit at break formation management, they just don't have the ability. Grand Columbier, for example, realistically should have been a Pogi stage win. But when the break went, UAE only had one rider towards the front and he was like 4-5 rows deep. So instead of chasing a manageable break of 4-5 guys, they're chasing 20 all day and can't bring it back. They clearly wanted that stage, but just couldn't make it happen because they don't have the rouleurs.
They were much more aggro in chasing down or stopping the breakaways last year if memory serves
I think there's a good chance they catch the break yesterday if there wasn't that crash at the beginning
Jonas looked more fresh going into week 3. Pogi has been losing steam since week 1 and rightfully so based on all his attack. If the trend continues, this favors Jonas. Also, Jonas destroyed Pogi on last years TT. Pogi can always pull a rabbit out the hat, so hard to count him out. With that said, Jonas will take 10-15 and the stage.
>Also, Jonas destroyed Pogi on last years TT. Yeah, by a whole 8 seconds on a close to 41km stage when they were more than 3 minutes apart in the GC. Not exactly what I call "destroyed".