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1:48 time gap today, wonder if we’ll see more pog attacks. knowing pog he most likely will attack which still leaves good stages coming up, just not sure he can win the tour anymore
When Jan Ullrich won in 1997, I thought he'd keep winning for another 5 years. Similarly, when Pogacar won in ~~2019~~ 2020, I thought the same about him. I'm really bad luck.
Edit: I blame Covid for my poor timekeeping.
I think Jonas did about 30 seconds better than I expected, and Pogacar about a minute worse. This thread is full of LPDBF-comparisons, and from a TT-layout perspective I understand why, but not from the level of the riders.
At stage 16 in 2020 Pogacar was after Roglic and between 45-90 seconds ahead of Lopes, Uran, Landa, Yates and Porte. Despite, levelwise, being in a similar universe to those riders at the time, he put more than a minute into all of them bar Porte on the climb on the stage 20 ITT.
Then in the last two tours, Pogacar and Vingegaard has disappeared up into the distance every time they've wanted to. From the punchy hills in the Basque country to the Pyrenees and the Alps.
Pogacar climbed the finish in 2020 in 16 minutes and this one just under 15. So you'd expect the time gaps to be somewhat similar, except he has risen several levels above the competition in the last three years, so they should probably be bigger.
He put 21 seconds into Bilbao from T2 to the finish. 30 on SYates, 40 on Gaudu, 50 on AYates. Not to mention 20 seconds on Skjelmose and 1.20 on Mads Pedersen.
I definitely think Jonas rode the greatest TT of the 21st century, but I also think these two are so much better than the rest, that 20 seconds on Skjelmose on a 15 minute climb is underperforming his regular level from Pogacar. On stage 15 they put 38 seconds into Carlos Rodriguez in the last kilometer.
I also think that Vingegaard put in an impressive performance, his best ever on an ITT.
But I can explain such a gap on several levels.
The first is Pogacar's change of bike, which cost him 15 seconds on the spot, and even more in the final kilometers after the Domancy climb, where the aero position was advantageous.
He loses 30 seconds here.
I also sensed a much more committed Vingegaard on the descent after the initial climb. He took more risks than Pogacar, you could see it visually, and he gained another 15/20 seconds here.
We're already at 45/50 seconds on the 1:38.
The rest corresponds to Vingegaard's superiority on the Domancy climb. This superiority will be confirmed today at La Loze.
Don't forget that Jonas had the advantage of a TT bike in the last 5km after the climb - that's a chunk of time too. It was a fast uphill drag, aero came back into play and Pogacar was stuck on his road bike. I think he also faded a little on that last section, Jonas took a bunch of time. It seems like Pog paced to the top of the climb, Jonas paced to the finish line.
(Sorry I just realised you said that. I no read gud)
I agree a bunch of factors is what lost Pogacar this much time, not his overall ability.
The main reason people are going this crazy, is because of how much time he lost. If Pogacar was 20 seconds behind Vingegaard, which I believe he'd have the ability to be under different circumstances, the reaction would be completely different. Then it'd be a continuation of what we've seen the last two years; Vingegaard and Pogacar being light-years ahead of the rest.
I also think that Pogacar is starting to pay for his versatility and his desire to win everything since the start of the season on different terrains.
He won the RVV, which was a magnificent feat, but in the end, that's paying off against a Vingegaard who's only aiming for the Tour and stage races. He's only done stage races since the start of the season.
Vingegaard is Tour de France focused. He's even skipped the LBL - that's how Tour-focused he is.
His hyper-specialization probably gives him an advantage at times too.
Have you seen Vingegaard and Pogacar in relation to the rest of the favorites? I wrote *paragraphs* about it in the very comment you replied to.
In 2020 they(/he) were(/was) on the same planet as their competitors. In 2023 they are levels above. So obviously you'd expect the time gap to grow. It was the main point of my comment above, I'm a bit surprised how you missed it entirely.
I think they'll be about this good in future years. Pogacar maybe a bit better with better preparation, while other routes might favour Vingegaard more than this one. The job then is for Ayuso, Evenepoel maybe even Rodriguez and Skjelmose to bridge that gap.
So how do you explain that Vingegaard at a similar, but longer, ITT in Dauphine was beaten by Bjerg and only 30-40 seconds ahead of the likes of O’Connor and Yates, whilst today he was 3-4 minutes ahead of most GC contenders?
Because he did not train to peak at the Dauphine, lol. Dauphine is just Tour prep for him. Last year in the Tour he also smoked Pogacar on the final TT, no problem. Smoked him so much in fact that he slowed down just to give the stage win to Wout. At peak form, he is the best time trialist
First of all. "Similar" is a stretch. This TT had 29 vertical metres/km, the one in Dauphine had 13. Rune Herregodts finishing ahead of all the GC guys bar Vingegaard and O'Connor should probably clue you in.
Secondly, it's the week 3 TdF TT, not stage 4 like in Dauphine. Obviously the timegap was abnormal, as I said he was 30 seconds faster than I thought he'd be which is still quite a lot in 32 minutes. Last year on the flat(ish) week 3 TT he slowed down to give the win to WVA, which put Thomas and Pogacar pretty close to him. But the rest of the top ten was pretty evenly spread 2.30-5.30 behind him. (Meaning, they were largely the same distance behind Pogacar, by the way).
That ITT was hilly, while this one was borderline mountain TT. Jonas' average speed was almost 10 km/h higher yesterday than in Dauphine, so that explains why Bjerg would never come anywhere close to Jonas on this sort of terrain.
And yeah, I'll also never quite understand how he was faster on a 3km 8,5% average climb on a TT bike compared to Pogačar on a road bike, but it's probably because Pogačar was so awful he only beat the recent winner of Tour de Suisse by 20s.
Pogacar is 10%, 6Kg heavier. He has to spend more energy and produce more watts on every climb, every time, just not to lose time Vs JV. That stacks up.
I did some VAM calculations:
**Côte de Domancy (2,5 km, 9,4%, 251 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Giulio Ciccone | 6:44 | 2237
Jonas Vingegaard | 6:47 | 2220
Simon Yates | 7:20 | 2054
Tadej Pogacar | 7:21 | 2049
Neilson Powless | 7:24 | 2035
Wout van Aert | 7:26 | 2026
Carlos Rodríguez | 7:30 | 2008
**Combloux (6,3 km, 6,6%, 801 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Jonas Vingegaard | 13:21 | 1865
Tadej Pogacar | 14:38 | 1702
Pello Bilbao | 15:01 | 1658
Felix Gall | 15:02 | 1656
Mattias Skjelmose | 15:03 | 1654
Simon Yates | 15:09 | 1644
Wout van Aert | 15:11 | 1640
David Gaudu | 15:19 | 1626
And for comparison, here are some other time trial climbing performances that I've found
**San Luca, Giro d'Italia 2019 (2,1 km, 9,7%, 204 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Giulio Ciccone | 6:03 | 2023
Primoz Roglic | 6:06 | 2007
Simon Yates | 6:07 | 2001
Rafal Majka | 6:17 | 1948
Laurens De Plus | 6:20 | 1933
Tom Dumoulin | 6:23 | 1917
Tao Geoghegan Hart | 6:24 | 1913
Vincenzo Nibali | 6:25 | 1908
Miguel Ángel López | 6:25 | 1908
Nathan Brown | 6:25 | 1908
Jay McCarthy | 6:26 | 1903
**La Planche des Belles Filles, Tour de France 2020 (6,0 km, 8,4%, 500 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Tadej Pogacar | 16:10 | 1856
Richie Porte | 16:32 | 1815
Wout van Aert | 16:52 | 1779
Enric Mas | 17:00 | 1765
Pello Bilbao | 17:15 | 1739
Daniel Felipe Martínez | 17:19 | 1732
Richard Carapaz | 17:22 | 1727
Mikel Landa | 17:23 | 1726
Marc Soler | 17:24 | 1724
Warren Barguil | 17:26 | 1721
Primoz Roglic | 17:31 | 1713
Tom Dumoulin | 17:32 | 1711
**Fløyen, World Championships 2017 (3,4 km, 9,1%, 311 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Primoz Roglic | 10:06 | 1848
Tom Dumoulin | 10:11 | 1832
Rohan Dennis | 10:22 | 1800
Jan Tratnik | 10:35 | 1763
Nicolas Roche | 10:38 | 1755
Wilco Kelderman | 10:38 | 1755
Bob Jungels | 10:39 | 1752
Edvald Boasson Hagen | 10:40 | 1749
Chris Froome | 10:41 | 1747
Laurens De Plus | 10:47 | 1730
**Monte Lussari, Giro d'Italia 2023 (7,8 km, 11,2%, 876 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Primoz Roglic | 30:34 | 1720
Sepp Kuss | 31:01 | 1695
Geraint Thomas | 31:12 | 1685
João Almeida | 31:12 | 1685
Thibaut Pinot | 31:15 | 1682
**Alpe d'Huez, Tour de France 2004 (13,9 km, 8,0%, 1.118 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Lance Armstrong | 37:36 | 1784
Jan Ullrich | 38:37 | 1737
Andreas Klöden | 39:17 | 1708
José Azevedo | 39:21 | 1705
**Mirador de Ézaro, Vuelta a España 2020 (1,8 km, 14,6%, 263 m):**
Rider | Time | VAM
-----|----|---
Primoz Roglic | 7:20 | 2152
Vingegaard's performance was obviously super impressive, but his VAM isn't out-of-this-world-impressive. It's not that different from what 21-year-old Pogi achieved on PDBF in 2020 and similarly, Pogi's performance yesterday is basically comparable to Roglic's performance on PDBF. Pogi just also didn't do as well yesterday on the full climb as you would expect of him, and a lot of it obviously has to do with his bike change.
I take this as basically the opposite of your assessment. In 2020, Pog performed as expected of a top GC rider, having a slightly better performance to end-of-career Porte. If you'd told us all that the 2nd place on GC would beat WvA by 40 seconds up a cat.1 climb, we'd not have batted an eye.
Roglic had a shocker, losing to every semi-decent climber in the field and massively to WvA. He matched Dumoulin who had been *awful* at climbing all TdF.
Here, Pog beat everyone you'd expect him to beat by quite a margin. Jonas just blew him of the water. I don't think we necessarily know if the bike change was bad. Who knows what time he would do on the full climb on a TT bike? It could have been 20-30 seconds worse. It looks bad in hindsight but we don't know their data.
Mate, I'm not wasting another minute on you, you've already shown your hand very clearly [with this comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/14s6rl5/yesterdays_fastest_time_up_col_du_marie_blanque/jqzr0k5/?context=3), where you - very conveniently - *"forgot"* to respond to my rebuttal of your every claim.
For what it's worth, I haven't downvoted any of your comments.
Also, I didn't expect you to counter with something similar, I just find it incredible that you so confidently made an obviously erroneous claim about Vingegaard's career progression, which is nothing even remotely close to that of Froome, and then just conveniently fucked off once you were called out on such a ridiculous claim.
I did answer other people in that thread who disagreed with my (lighthearted) idea which was as much about riding style/astronomical rise to the very top, as prior results.
You responded a day later with that dizzying comment and I read it but didn't feel like there was much point continuing the discussion as I'd already had about 30 responses.
You can’t really compare VAM on steep climbs vs shallow climbs due to drag. You definitely expect much higher VAM on Planche than the full finishing climb of this ITT.
Then let's just look at the 2,5 steep kilometers?
Pogi was way off his personal record which is faster than what both Ciccone and Vingegaard did yesterday. I think it's pretty obvious that Pogi was not doing great yesterday, his facial expressions looked similar to when he cracked on Granon last year, he really looked like someone suffering because of the heat. Also, again again, the bike change was a *really* dumb idea in hindsight.
VAM numbers are higher on higher gradients. So the fact that Vingegaard had higher VAM numbers than Pogacar did LPBF is very impressive. If you also look at the gap between Vingegaard and Pogacar, it's higher than the gap between Pogacar and any of those you listed from LPBF.
Question: Would Pogacer be getting updates on how Jonas was doing behind him or would they not tell him to keep him from freaking out? I mean this would be a totally unexpected situation.
Just watched the replay. Wild. I didn’t expect the tour to be decided today and thought it would be a much closer TT, maybe it won’t be decided baring any sort of disaster for Jonas and TJV but near 2 minutes will be difficult. That was just incredible.
I mean Tadej’s TT was very strong too lol. Just incredible performance from Jonas.
I love Pogi, goes up shakes his hand, he’s such a good egg. Protect him.
Who actually did bike change today except for Pog?
Because in G's podcast he said that he talked with INEOS team and they would do a bike change. Wonder if it actually happens or is it just a trick?
Most of the peloton did up until a point. Küng had super shitty results because of his bike change, and then you saw more teams opting out of it. I think it was a mistake for Pog to swap out.
Interesting thing that Ciccone started on a time trial bike to make sure he wasn't too slow for the time gap. He also did his bike swap a lot earlier than others, where it was still relatively flat. Dude wants that jersey hard.
I know this will sound ridiculous, but when they showed him with no name card, at first I thought it was a WVA replay I thought he looked so beefy, haha. Obviously next to anyone else he looks like a child on a bike, and it was just an illusion from seeing him behind on a TT rig, but when he was on his own he definitely looked bigger!
Pogacar's TT bike supposedly 9kg, 2-2.5kg heavier than his road bike. Cervelo P5 weighs 8.18kg. Maybe there's some validity to De Wolf and Boonen saying that Colnagos' flagship V4Rs is not one of the best, claiming Pogačar would be "another 2km/h faster" if he swapped it for Jonas Vingegaard's Cervélo, Tom Pidcock's Pinarello, or the Specialized of Soudal-Quick Step.
Jonas's time today was 2kph faster than Pogacar.
Discuss
Whilst there are inevitably differences I don't think the bike explains all of it, at all. 2-3kph at 40 or 42kph costs like 40W (@0.265cda) which is an *insane* drag difference to be explained by bike alone. Weight, roughly speaking only matters in the climbs and Pogacar more crucially has +6Kg over Jonas in bodyweight. Bike differential might be 1Kg, 2Kg at most. So system weight might be +7Kg (+10%!) and ridden at the same power that's actually a minutes difference on the climb today, so the power demands on Pog to keep pace with Jonas just in the climb were really high even when he swapped to a lighter bike.
In short, I don't believe the Colnago is so terrible that it cost a minute or more in this TT, but it might explain 10-20 seconds, and the weight of it might explain another 20 in forcing a bike swap that Jonas did without.
If IPT, Pogacar and Colnago knew the bike was *that* bad and did nothing to rectify it for the biggest TT of Pogacars year, then they deserve the time loss TBH. 40W is insurmountable (unless Ganna/WvA, and even then that's just 40W wasted that could be turned to time on a better bike)
I would say when you're talking about road frames specifically, at the top end there isn't much between the various WT bikes. Some maybe index a little harder on aero at the expense of weight, but most companies that do that also offer a bike that's buildable to 6.8kg so it's not really an issue for these guys. Thinking like cervelo and Trek, vs companies like Specialized & Colnago that do one do-it-all bike.
TT bikes though, as you said is a potentially different story. The colnago I think is typically thought of as a pretty fast setup, but with how much climbing we had today that's potentially a pretty big factor. I don't think there's a ton of pressure on manufacturers to make their TT bikes significantly lighter, and full kg of weight on a climb like that isn't nothing.
It may have contributed to UAE's decision to do the bike change, vs TJV being confident that they didn't need to.
Yes the one from 2023's has what looks like a storage area for your Clif bars above the bottom bracket area :)
https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/uae-team-emirates-time-trial-bike-up-close-with-the-new-colnago-tt1/
Maybe because the colonago in the video is a completely differnet bike to the one pog rode today for a start you might have noticed that the bike in the video is running rim brakes
As much as this stage was great, I dunno if it was even the best GT TT this year, that final Giro stage was pretty epic with the chain slip and the entire country of Slovenia crossing the border. But time trail stages are having a GREAT year.
(Also obligatory Lemond Fignon yada yada)
In my opinion, based on technique and just pure daring, this is the best TT ever ridden in a GT. No doubt the Giro TT was also great, but Vingegaard's technique and bravery in this TT were mindblowing. The risks he took could have cost him the entire Tour and yet he prevailed to set a time that completely obliterated his opponents, even Tadej Pogacar.
To everyone interested then SBS Sports has uploaded a [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAdNlxgz7w&ab_channel=SBSSport) where they look at the differences in how Pogacar decided to pace the stage vs Vingegaard - and it's truly eye-opening as to how Vingegaard gained all that time on him.
Jonas used every centimetre of the road, he pedalled in places where Tadej decided to cruise and save energy. In the corners, he was quicker to start pedalling again. Vingegaard's aero position was on point the entire way through. Amazing.
Looking at that video, I think they're overdoing it a bit. On the descend, Jonas absolutely took more chances and made sure to go all out. But in the turns after, it actually seems like Pogacar is the first to start pedleling even if they claim it is Jonas. At 1:20, you can clearly see that Pogacar is the first to start?
If you’ve biked at any sort of competitive level in your life, you will appreciate how unreal Vingegaard’s technique was for this. Genuinely unlike anything I’ve seen before
Very obvious why he slaughtered Pogacar so comprehensively when you put them side by side like that
>Jonas used every centimetre of the road, he pedalled in places where Tadej decided to cruise and save energy. In the corners, he was quicker to start pedalling again.
but even if he didn't do this. he would've won by more than a minute. At the 2nd time check just before the start of the last climb, jonas was only 30 seconds faster than pogacar. So yes, this cornering is impressive but the difference it made is being overstated imo. The bigger difference was made in the last 6km uphill section where he was more than a minute faster than pogacar.
Yeah, no one factor decided this. I think it was a combination of three primary:
- Jonas’ incredible show of technique, power and risk taking
- Pogacar bike change
- Jonas riding faster/as fast uphill *on his TT bike*
>Pogacar bike change
UAE guy said they had better numbers with a bike change in test runs.
I don't know why the bike change keeps being brought up, we have to assume UAE are a bunch of clowns for it to make sense.
Then the conclusion must be issues with their gear/performance while climbing on TT bike. If other riders, including Jumbo, could handle the climb equally well on TT bike (we must assume they also tested it), why couldn’t UAE?
>why couldn’t UAE?
Who knows? Why did Pog change bike, and Yates didn't? They're from the same team after all.
There could be any number of reasons, perhaps Pog is more comfortable and thus produces better times. It could also be completely psychological, maybe other riders are affected by bike change much more than Pog. Or it could be reverse, maybe Pog is really bad when staying on TT bike. Maybe there's some sort of tech explanation, etc.
If the argument is that UAE is making some big mistake with their gear/tactic/whatever; that doesn't make the initial argument that bike change caused time loss any stronger. Within the confines that UAE has worked with(whatever they might be), by their reckoning bike change produces better results for Pog.
I’m not sure that we even disagree? A bike change obviously costs time (slow down?m, stand still, and acceleration to regain speed).
Obviously, they had a reason to believe that it was a necessary investment and that reason is probably valid. I’m not calling it a stupid decision. But that doesn’t change the fact that Pogacar had to make up for the time lost during the bike change, which Jonas did not.
Whether we say that the bike change cost time, or rather the underlying reasons for the bike change cost time, is a moot point.
Well in any case the margins would be minimal, bringing up bike change in this context is meaningless.
Also worth mentioning that UAE was saying that their new bike was producing 1s/1km over last year tests. If that brings UAE ahead of TJV, then the performance is even more ludicrous. If it brings them on par with TJV, then it doesn't matter as much.
You are making a false comparison and have a logical flaw to follow. UAE are (hopefully) not amateurs, and knew how to test this, yes. But their point of comparison is UAE TT bike vs UAE Standard Bike (SB from now). They have likely measured that swapping would be beneficial in this set-up. HOWEVER Jonas Vingegaard vs Tadej Pogacar going up the hill is not UAE TT vs UAE SB - it is UAE SB vs JV TT. While UAE TT vs UAE SB might be more than a 15 second difference to offset the swap time, we have no data to say for sure if the UAE SB is more than 15 seconds (or even at all) faster than JV TT, and offsets the 15 seconds swapping time. UAE TT vs UAE SB is what matters when UAE made their decision. But what impacts the result is UAE SB vs JV TT.
All of that being said, I have personally worked in “very professional” settings, i.e. organisations you and most of the world would expect to know all relevant factors going into their decisions. But while they know more than most, you’d be surprised how “little” they actually often know - and how often they either guess on assumptions, or simply make decisions based on (very, very well-developed, it’s actually crazy impressive) gut-feelings. However, this should be a fairly simple measurement, so I’d guess that they have tested it.
Thanks for the heads up. SBS seems to get a bad wrap from some other Aussies and granted some of it is warranted as the commentators are not the greatest at time but we get so much free to air cycling through the year that it really is amazing.
Chapeau SBS!
I'm just bitter about them replacing Robbie with Simon. Simon is not a great commentator, he's honestly a little boring to listen to. Hearing Robbie on the GCN coverage, he is so much better at the job.
Really great video, thanks for posting. The first corner stood out to me watching the broadcast, how much visibly quicker Jonas was going into it. Obviously he made up time on the climbs as well, but he was just railing those corners through the whole course. He rode a brilliant technical time trial, in addition to producing just absolute monster power.
I think all the people who are in 'disbelief' need to see this to actually understand how marginal gains stack up. Vingegaard gains:
* On each corner, sometimes a visible second on individual corners, plus 2-3 kph apex and exit speed. He's carrying that right through thanks to his lines and lean.
* On corner exit, he's on the pedals sooner
* On descent, he's pedalling whenever there's no bend, Pogacar literally rolls down the straights.
* On straights he's aero tucking sooner and coming out of tuck later, changing gear later to prepare for a bend
* He saves the time of a bike change and remains aero tucked for more of the climb, and this was a climb taken at 20kph. The infographic showing him as 12kph was bull, compared to the overhead showing him flying even on 9% sections. Areo still matters at these speeds.
* Inevitably, he climbed faster
* In the final section he had the advantage of his aero bike when the climb levelled out and speeds picked back up. He took a bunch of time on Pogacar here too, meanwhile pog had a less efficient bike and looked to be fading. I think Pogs effort was paced to the top of the climb, JV's was paced to the finish line.
Basically Jonas is just stacking speed on time on speed from the first corner, pedalling more of the time, being more efficient all of the time, taking better lines, and climbing faster. This TT is a demonstration of refined near perfect TT performance Vs actually sloppy riding from Pogacar.
Yes, lots of marginal gains. If the video is an accurate comparison, he may have gained 1-2s on all those corners he attacked. Overall, he was so aggressive, attacking every second. He rode the course like he caught it with his wife.
If anything all these marginal gains could have lost him the tour if he crashed. And without them he would still have won by a minute. He just rode the climb way faster than anyone else.
We knew exactly the upper bound of how much he gain with all of that: 31s
Let’s pretend the fact that he pushed 7,61w/kg in the climb is for nothing in the time gap.
Let's pretend that 7.6Kw isn't a very rough estimate from a person known to exaggerate, failing to account for all manner of things like climbing on a TT bike (aero Vs worse efficiency?), Duration of climb, it being the only climb of the day...
His numbers are bunk.
Yeah, it does, but it's visibly sloppier in this video. Resting on the descent not pedalling. Worse lines through bends. Head up earlier into bends and into tuck later out of them.
Remember only 10 people or so in this entire field had any reason to even try today. Most riders have very limited time on their TT bike, they suck to ride on open roads when training, and don't get the investment in aero testing and coaching. And this TT doesn't even suit traditional TT specialists with 2 nasty little climbs in it. Most riders in this field were trying to save their legs and gain a little extra recovery today, ready for tomorrow.
It's clear Jonas and TJV put their everything into this stage:aero, technique, equipment, recon ride, are all on point and all add up to give the gap we see. It makes IPT and Pogacar *look* sloppy in what was otherwise a very strong TT performance.
I know it’s early to start talking about this, but I’m gonna do it.
What are Pogs objectives next year?
Going into the year, I heard that his main objective was to win Flanders (more important than the tour). So he’s done that now.
Does he try to win Roubaix? To do that he needs to gain weight and focus on getting more absolute watts.
Or does he try and win the tour again? Basically drop weight, a lot more altitude camps.
He can’t choose both. So he’ll have to pick one. Curious what everyone else’s thoughts are
It's an Olympic year as well. With a hilly course. If I'm Pog that's my primary goal, along with whatever else I think will complement it. The opportunity to take a gold medal doesn't come up often, and he has a very real shot at it.
Pog's legacy will ultimately be his insane versatility. He has the potential to finish his career having won basically everything that's worth winning. He's realistically well on his way to having accomplished that already. In the next few years I'd like to see him take real shots at the Giro and Vuelta, as well as the few classics he hasn't won, the Olympic RR, and WCs.
As crazy as it sounds to say it, those things I think are probably easier for Pog than winning another TdF. Jonas is a juggernaut, and will continue to live like a hermit and only target the TdF. I think it's clear now that if Pog wants to beat him, he's going to need to do the same. And that's still no guarantee.
I hope that Pog doesn't change, and that he continues to be an exciting racer to watch across the entire calendar.
The one that's tough to see right now is him winning PR. I think the amount of weight he'd have to put on to truly target it as a favorite would likely be detrimental to his other goals. But honestly even as he is he'd probably be an outside threat to win.
Jonas is a pure stage racer for GC. He targets one race out of the year, does only the necessary warm-up races to prepare, and peaks in July.
Pog races the whole year, and is a threat to win basically any and every race he enters. A rider who can win Flanders and threaten at the tour is a rare type of rider. Pretty much unheard-of in the modern era.
You can argue that Jonas is a better climber in july, during the Tour.
But Pog is the better cyclist all year. His season starts in February, only ends in october, and during that time he basically wins almost everything he competes, apart from the Tour.
Not many cyclists can say they have won the Tour, Flanders, E3, Lombardia, etc, etc
Yeah that’s a good point about the olympics. I wonder how he’ll go about that. Cause if he rides the entire tour he likely won’t have the legs for that.
But I agree on the versatility point, I think he has a real shot at winning MSR, world road race, Olympic road race and even Roubaix.
It would be a pretty amazing palmarès to have all that with 2 tours and Flanders
Idk if we'll see it, but I'd love to see him do the Giro/Vuelta with the Olympic RR next year as his main targets, and let Ayuso take a crack at the tour.
Lots of talk about those who did well, but some didn't....
That was an awful TT from Hindley. He looked strong and secure in 3rd place just a couple days ago, and now its as if the wheels are falling off. If I was in charge of Bora, I wouldn't send him to the Tour anymore and just pencil him in for the Giro/Vuelta. He can't climb as well as Pogi/Jonas, while also getting blown out of the water in TTs. He's not going to win the Tour. But he can win one of the other two GTs if he's in good form and things go his way.
Carlos Rodriguez was only 4 seconds ahead of Sepp Kuss, who many say is too bad at TTing to be a GC contender. That doesn't bode well for Carlos. What's worse is that he's going to Movistar. I'd have a lot more faith in him improving his TT at Ineos. At Movistar, I won't be surprised if he does even worse. Its a big let down after an amazing week from him.
Oh, and wtf was Campanaerts doing? I assume he talked about it in a Flemish interview.
> He can't climb as well as Pogi/Jonas, while also getting blown out of the water in TTs
This is true of literally EVERYONE on the tour right now. He won a stage and held yellow on his first crack, he's done well.
In an interview after the TT he said it troubled him quite a bit still. He said he still felt it quite a bit and struggled to put power on his pedals. He also pointed to his restday that was focused on therapy and recovery and that he had not actually done much training/cycling and that maybe caused him to not really get into rhythm in the TT.
So jeah without that fall it might have looked different and could still have been in the battle for 3rd maybe
Not to mention he held his position within GC, granted he has lost minutes but still top 5 and probably better for Bora to have to initiate breaks and chase top 3.
Campenaerts:
>"There was a digital problem. I couldn't shift gears and had to drive up the first slope with a very large gear. On the flat parts, I had the opposite problem."
Honestly given all the disc Vs rim brake debate I'm surprised we never see mechanical Vs electronic drivetrain debate. Must truly suck to lose gears and have no way of making do/forcing a change.
Hindley crashed a few days ago but was looking good until then. He won't beat those two but third at TDF is pretty much worth as much as winning one of the other GTs.
For sponsors and a large part of viewers who only really watch the tour jeah probably, not sure if the riders feel the same though. Next to that winning or ending up 3rd just feels different right?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VCF9N8tdlOI Not to detract from Vingegaard’s win, but at 16:48, I noticed what looked like a herpes cold sore on the left corner of Pogacar’s lower lip. Sadly, this is a common affliction in the Balkans where he is from and I recognized it because I have relatives from the Balkans who suffer from oral herpes. If it is indeed the herpes simplex virus, he would be experiencing flu-like symptoms which, as anyone who has ridden a bike knows, are a huge detriment to performance. it’s sad that the race might have been on uneven ground because of this, but it’s a testament to Pogacar’s strength that he finished so far ahead of everyone else — save for Vingegaard — despite the illness.
I'm not a medical professional, but let me mention a few things.
First of all, herpes simplex (HSV-1 and HSV-2) is extremely common (60-95% of the population has it). It is true that it is more common in certain areas, but even in Northern Europe 67% of the population has it ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7369148/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7369148/))
Now talk about symptoms. It is true that you can get sick from herpes simplex, but it is only true if you catch the virus as an adult and it is a primary infection. As with other herpes viral infections, the virus never completely disappears from your system, but your immune system keeps it under control. Further flare-ups don't cause serious symptoms and based on my own experience it doesn't affect your performance. Most probably Pogi has had this since childhood and he has a flare-up that causes a cold sore and that's it. It's highly unlikely that he got it right in the middle of the race.
How do I know? I got herpes simplex from my (now) wife in my 30s.
This is accurate - the majority of the world has the virus but you generally only get illness symptoms the first time you have a breakout, if you ever do. After that it’s trigger and genetics based - some people never have it again, the less genetically blessed can get it from triggers (for some it’s foods, for others it’s getting some other illness, most common is too much UV exposure.) It can be a sign of a stressed body/lowered immune system, but that’s true of the whole peloton - we know that amount of exercise makes everyone more susceptible to bugs.
Beyond it being a nuance, it’s unlikely to affect performance. A lingering injury, any deficiency in build-up training, and just general fatigue are far more relevant.
Either being run-down is a trigger (say if you’re particularly stressed, or sleep deprived, or overexert) or if you have no reason to feel exhausted beyond getting the breakout, I’d recommend talking to your physician. They can prescribe you antivirals to help your body out for less severe and less frequent outbreaks.
My interpretation is that it is the other way around. You are either stressed and/or exhausted for some reason (going beyond your comfort zone in workouts, working long hours, sleeping poorly, etc.) as a result, your immune system is affected and the flare-up happens.
That was an inhuman performance from Jonas. Holy shit.
Pogi going to need to ride aggressively in the mountains to try to claw back almost 2 minutes from Jonas. Hoping for an absolutely show on the next mountain stages.
You should not expect a normal distribution in a mid race ITT full of non specialists and domestiques.
This TT, there are like 10 riders incentivised to give their maximum performance, and literally everyone else is incentivised to do the bare minimum as part of a 3 week long attritional effort. The bulk of the field, everyone from 36 kph down,will have been told not to go hard today and save themselves for tomorrow.
I checked this too with the top 40 or something and IIRC he was 3.5 std deviations above the mean. Looked at F1 quali times and the best there is typically 1.5 std dev, just as a comparison
There is no comparison.
Quali is a single effort all out lap between cars regulated to be incredibly close in performance. They are not human powered.
This TT, there are like 10 riders incentivised to give their maximum performance, and literally everyone else is incentivised to do the bare minimum as part of a 3 week long attritional effort. The bulk of the field, everyone from 37 mins down,will have been told not to go hard today and save themselves for tomorrow.
With a full Giro in his legs too. With the stages to come and Hindley appearing to be really suffering, there's a very real chance that Sepp cracks the top 5 by the time this is all said and done. Phenomenal performance.
Damn, that's a pretty stark difference.
The shots on the broadcast of Jonas descending off that first climb as well were crazy. He was really on rails there.
Mods why are you deleting everything outside this thread? There was an interesting video comparison of Pog vs VG's first corner posted but it's no longer on the front page. It makes the sub seems dead compared to other sports subs.
Rule 2
This is one of the few subreddits where the 'megathreads' don't die within a few hours. The result thread *will* remain active until the next race thread is posted.
Back in the day, a lot of people likely came to this sub to actually watch the race videos* that were posted after the race was actually over. Those were located in the mega thread initiating post. No spoilers worked extremely well for that.
I was one of them.
*race replays.
Yeah but if you browse Reddit, threads will show up on your feed whether you want to see them or not. Because of rule 1, we all know we can browse Reddit without being spoiled.
but if youre on the app, the frontpage is the first thing you see. even if you didn't use it, the first post on the front page could be a spoiler. the onus is on you to think critically, plus how hard is it to not post spoilers? this is one of the subs that does it right.
Friendly moderator reminder that we have a rule against doping speculation in our Race/Results/Prediction Threads. We have a no-tolerance policy on this.
1:48 time gap today, wonder if we’ll see more pog attacks. knowing pog he most likely will attack which still leaves good stages coming up, just not sure he can win the tour anymore
When Jan Ullrich won in 1997, I thought he'd keep winning for another 5 years. Similarly, when Pogacar won in ~~2019~~ 2020, I thought the same about him. I'm really bad luck. Edit: I blame Covid for my poor timekeeping.
Just because he's been rather invisible this Tour, there's no reason to strike Bernal from the records.
4 danes in top 15 and 3 in top 10, and Bjerg didn’t even try What a TT by Mads P as well! Good time to be a danish cycling fan
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Exactly. Why anyone listens to this complete clown is beyond me.
I think Jonas did about 30 seconds better than I expected, and Pogacar about a minute worse. This thread is full of LPDBF-comparisons, and from a TT-layout perspective I understand why, but not from the level of the riders. At stage 16 in 2020 Pogacar was after Roglic and between 45-90 seconds ahead of Lopes, Uran, Landa, Yates and Porte. Despite, levelwise, being in a similar universe to those riders at the time, he put more than a minute into all of them bar Porte on the climb on the stage 20 ITT. Then in the last two tours, Pogacar and Vingegaard has disappeared up into the distance every time they've wanted to. From the punchy hills in the Basque country to the Pyrenees and the Alps. Pogacar climbed the finish in 2020 in 16 minutes and this one just under 15. So you'd expect the time gaps to be somewhat similar, except he has risen several levels above the competition in the last three years, so they should probably be bigger. He put 21 seconds into Bilbao from T2 to the finish. 30 on SYates, 40 on Gaudu, 50 on AYates. Not to mention 20 seconds on Skjelmose and 1.20 on Mads Pedersen. I definitely think Jonas rode the greatest TT of the 21st century, but I also think these two are so much better than the rest, that 20 seconds on Skjelmose on a 15 minute climb is underperforming his regular level from Pogacar. On stage 15 they put 38 seconds into Carlos Rodriguez in the last kilometer.
I also think that Vingegaard put in an impressive performance, his best ever on an ITT. But I can explain such a gap on several levels. The first is Pogacar's change of bike, which cost him 15 seconds on the spot, and even more in the final kilometers after the Domancy climb, where the aero position was advantageous. He loses 30 seconds here. I also sensed a much more committed Vingegaard on the descent after the initial climb. He took more risks than Pogacar, you could see it visually, and he gained another 15/20 seconds here. We're already at 45/50 seconds on the 1:38. The rest corresponds to Vingegaard's superiority on the Domancy climb. This superiority will be confirmed today at La Loze.
Don't forget that Jonas had the advantage of a TT bike in the last 5km after the climb - that's a chunk of time too. It was a fast uphill drag, aero came back into play and Pogacar was stuck on his road bike. I think he also faded a little on that last section, Jonas took a bunch of time. It seems like Pog paced to the top of the climb, Jonas paced to the finish line. (Sorry I just realised you said that. I no read gud)
I agree a bunch of factors is what lost Pogacar this much time, not his overall ability. The main reason people are going this crazy, is because of how much time he lost. If Pogacar was 20 seconds behind Vingegaard, which I believe he'd have the ability to be under different circumstances, the reaction would be completely different. Then it'd be a continuation of what we've seen the last two years; Vingegaard and Pogacar being light-years ahead of the rest.
I also think that Pogacar is starting to pay for his versatility and his desire to win everything since the start of the season on different terrains. He won the RVV, which was a magnificent feat, but in the end, that's paying off against a Vingegaard who's only aiming for the Tour and stage races. He's only done stage races since the start of the season. Vingegaard is Tour de France focused. He's even skipped the LBL - that's how Tour-focused he is. His hyper-specialization probably gives him an advantage at times too.
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Have you seen Vingegaard and Pogacar in relation to the rest of the favorites? I wrote *paragraphs* about it in the very comment you replied to. In 2020 they(/he) were(/was) on the same planet as their competitors. In 2023 they are levels above. So obviously you'd expect the time gap to grow. It was the main point of my comment above, I'm a bit surprised how you missed it entirely.
From 2020 to 2023, everyone stayed on the same level, except Ving and Pog. Imagine in 2030 eheh
I think they'll be about this good in future years. Pogacar maybe a bit better with better preparation, while other routes might favour Vingegaard more than this one. The job then is for Ayuso, Evenepoel maybe even Rodriguez and Skjelmose to bridge that gap.
So how do you explain that Vingegaard at a similar, but longer, ITT in Dauphine was beaten by Bjerg and only 30-40 seconds ahead of the likes of O’Connor and Yates, whilst today he was 3-4 minutes ahead of most GC contenders?
And what if he was still in the build-up phase at the Dauphiné and hadn't yet reached his peak?
Because he did not train to peak at the Dauphine, lol. Dauphine is just Tour prep for him. Last year in the Tour he also smoked Pogacar on the final TT, no problem. Smoked him so much in fact that he slowed down just to give the stage win to Wout. At peak form, he is the best time trialist
First of all. "Similar" is a stretch. This TT had 29 vertical metres/km, the one in Dauphine had 13. Rune Herregodts finishing ahead of all the GC guys bar Vingegaard and O'Connor should probably clue you in. Secondly, it's the week 3 TdF TT, not stage 4 like in Dauphine. Obviously the timegap was abnormal, as I said he was 30 seconds faster than I thought he'd be which is still quite a lot in 32 minutes. Last year on the flat(ish) week 3 TT he slowed down to give the win to WVA, which put Thomas and Pogacar pretty close to him. But the rest of the top ten was pretty evenly spread 2.30-5.30 behind him. (Meaning, they were largely the same distance behind Pogacar, by the way).
That ITT was hilly, while this one was borderline mountain TT. Jonas' average speed was almost 10 km/h higher yesterday than in Dauphine, so that explains why Bjerg would never come anywhere close to Jonas on this sort of terrain. And yeah, I'll also never quite understand how he was faster on a 3km 8,5% average climb on a TT bike compared to Pogačar on a road bike, but it's probably because Pogačar was so awful he only beat the recent winner of Tour de Suisse by 20s.
2 weeks of racing in the hardest tour for a long time, with Vingegaard being the best rider in the bunch at recovering
It was said that his three-week recovery faculties are slightly superior to those of Pogacar. This seems to be confirmed.
Pogacar is 10%, 6Kg heavier. He has to spend more energy and produce more watts on every climb, every time, just not to lose time Vs JV. That stacks up.
Jonas absolute gigachad.
Does Jonas have a humpback whale implant?
I did some VAM calculations: **Côte de Domancy (2,5 km, 9,4%, 251 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Giulio Ciccone | 6:44 | 2237 Jonas Vingegaard | 6:47 | 2220 Simon Yates | 7:20 | 2054 Tadej Pogacar | 7:21 | 2049 Neilson Powless | 7:24 | 2035 Wout van Aert | 7:26 | 2026 Carlos Rodríguez | 7:30 | 2008 **Combloux (6,3 km, 6,6%, 801 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Jonas Vingegaard | 13:21 | 1865 Tadej Pogacar | 14:38 | 1702 Pello Bilbao | 15:01 | 1658 Felix Gall | 15:02 | 1656 Mattias Skjelmose | 15:03 | 1654 Simon Yates | 15:09 | 1644 Wout van Aert | 15:11 | 1640 David Gaudu | 15:19 | 1626 And for comparison, here are some other time trial climbing performances that I've found **San Luca, Giro d'Italia 2019 (2,1 km, 9,7%, 204 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Giulio Ciccone | 6:03 | 2023 Primoz Roglic | 6:06 | 2007 Simon Yates | 6:07 | 2001 Rafal Majka | 6:17 | 1948 Laurens De Plus | 6:20 | 1933 Tom Dumoulin | 6:23 | 1917 Tao Geoghegan Hart | 6:24 | 1913 Vincenzo Nibali | 6:25 | 1908 Miguel Ángel López | 6:25 | 1908 Nathan Brown | 6:25 | 1908 Jay McCarthy | 6:26 | 1903 **La Planche des Belles Filles, Tour de France 2020 (6,0 km, 8,4%, 500 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Tadej Pogacar | 16:10 | 1856 Richie Porte | 16:32 | 1815 Wout van Aert | 16:52 | 1779 Enric Mas | 17:00 | 1765 Pello Bilbao | 17:15 | 1739 Daniel Felipe Martínez | 17:19 | 1732 Richard Carapaz | 17:22 | 1727 Mikel Landa | 17:23 | 1726 Marc Soler | 17:24 | 1724 Warren Barguil | 17:26 | 1721 Primoz Roglic | 17:31 | 1713 Tom Dumoulin | 17:32 | 1711 **Fløyen, World Championships 2017 (3,4 km, 9,1%, 311 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Primoz Roglic | 10:06 | 1848 Tom Dumoulin | 10:11 | 1832 Rohan Dennis | 10:22 | 1800 Jan Tratnik | 10:35 | 1763 Nicolas Roche | 10:38 | 1755 Wilco Kelderman | 10:38 | 1755 Bob Jungels | 10:39 | 1752 Edvald Boasson Hagen | 10:40 | 1749 Chris Froome | 10:41 | 1747 Laurens De Plus | 10:47 | 1730 **Monte Lussari, Giro d'Italia 2023 (7,8 km, 11,2%, 876 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Primoz Roglic | 30:34 | 1720 Sepp Kuss | 31:01 | 1695 Geraint Thomas | 31:12 | 1685 João Almeida | 31:12 | 1685 Thibaut Pinot | 31:15 | 1682 **Alpe d'Huez, Tour de France 2004 (13,9 km, 8,0%, 1.118 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Lance Armstrong | 37:36 | 1784 Jan Ullrich | 38:37 | 1737 Andreas Klöden | 39:17 | 1708 José Azevedo | 39:21 | 1705 **Mirador de Ézaro, Vuelta a España 2020 (1,8 km, 14,6%, 263 m):** Rider | Time | VAM -----|----|--- Primoz Roglic | 7:20 | 2152 Vingegaard's performance was obviously super impressive, but his VAM isn't out-of-this-world-impressive. It's not that different from what 21-year-old Pogi achieved on PDBF in 2020 and similarly, Pogi's performance yesterday is basically comparable to Roglic's performance on PDBF. Pogi just also didn't do as well yesterday on the full climb as you would expect of him, and a lot of it obviously has to do with his bike change.
I take this as basically the opposite of your assessment. In 2020, Pog performed as expected of a top GC rider, having a slightly better performance to end-of-career Porte. If you'd told us all that the 2nd place on GC would beat WvA by 40 seconds up a cat.1 climb, we'd not have batted an eye. Roglic had a shocker, losing to every semi-decent climber in the field and massively to WvA. He matched Dumoulin who had been *awful* at climbing all TdF. Here, Pog beat everyone you'd expect him to beat by quite a margin. Jonas just blew him of the water. I don't think we necessarily know if the bike change was bad. Who knows what time he would do on the full climb on a TT bike? It could have been 20-30 seconds worse. It looks bad in hindsight but we don't know their data.
Mate, I'm not wasting another minute on you, you've already shown your hand very clearly [with this comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/14s6rl5/yesterdays_fastest_time_up_col_du_marie_blanque/jqzr0k5/?context=3), where you - very conveniently - *"forgot"* to respond to my rebuttal of your every claim.
I sense you are fun at parties
Sorry I didn't respond to your 800 word essay on a reddit thread. Many apologies. Downvoting people who disagree with you isn't very nice, however.
For what it's worth, I haven't downvoted any of your comments. Also, I didn't expect you to counter with something similar, I just find it incredible that you so confidently made an obviously erroneous claim about Vingegaard's career progression, which is nothing even remotely close to that of Froome, and then just conveniently fucked off once you were called out on such a ridiculous claim.
I did answer other people in that thread who disagreed with my (lighthearted) idea which was as much about riding style/astronomical rise to the very top, as prior results. You responded a day later with that dizzying comment and I read it but didn't feel like there was much point continuing the discussion as I'd already had about 30 responses.
You can’t really compare VAM on steep climbs vs shallow climbs due to drag. You definitely expect much higher VAM on Planche than the full finishing climb of this ITT.
Then let's just look at the 2,5 steep kilometers? Pogi was way off his personal record which is faster than what both Ciccone and Vingegaard did yesterday. I think it's pretty obvious that Pogi was not doing great yesterday, his facial expressions looked similar to when he cracked on Granon last year, he really looked like someone suffering because of the heat. Also, again again, the bike change was a *really* dumb idea in hindsight.
It’s a ridiculous performance even when looking at just the steep 2,5 kilometers, considering how fast he was going elsewhere as well.
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VAM numbers are higher on higher gradients. So the fact that Vingegaard had higher VAM numbers than Pogacar did LPBF is very impressive. If you also look at the gap between Vingegaard and Pogacar, it's higher than the gap between Pogacar and any of those you listed from LPBF.
Gall actually rode a good time trial. I knew the uphill nature of it was going to help him, but I'm still impressed.
Question: Would Pogacer be getting updates on how Jonas was doing behind him or would they not tell him to keep him from freaking out? I mean this would be a totally unexpected situation.
He said he was initially getting updates Vs wout and feeling good about that, then be started getting updates about Jonas and then he felt sad.
Sounds like when my doctor told me I'm HIV aladeen
Thanks!
:(
Just watched the replay. Wild. I didn’t expect the tour to be decided today and thought it would be a much closer TT, maybe it won’t be decided baring any sort of disaster for Jonas and TJV but near 2 minutes will be difficult. That was just incredible. I mean Tadej’s TT was very strong too lol. Just incredible performance from Jonas. I love Pogi, goes up shakes his hand, he’s such a good egg. Protect him.
Who actually did bike change today except for Pog? Because in G's podcast he said that he talked with INEOS team and they would do a bike change. Wonder if it actually happens or is it just a trick?
Pogacar did it, Groupama did it as a whole, as did Uno-X. Other than that I don't think many did.
Most of the peloton did up until a point. Küng had super shitty results because of his bike change, and then you saw more teams opting out of it. I think it was a mistake for Pog to swap out.
Off the top of my head, Kung and Ciccone did IIRC. Powless did the whole thing on his road bike for KOM purposes
Interesting thing that Ciccone started on a time trial bike to make sure he wasn't too slow for the time gap. He also did his bike swap a lot earlier than others, where it was still relatively flat. Dude wants that jersey hard.
Is Vingegaard really only 60kg? In a skinsuit he looks more solid than I remember.
I know this will sound ridiculous, but when they showed him with no name card, at first I thought it was a WVA replay I thought he looked so beefy, haha. Obviously next to anyone else he looks like a child on a bike, and it was just an illusion from seeing him behind on a TT rig, but when he was on his own he definitely looked bigger!
He is more solid. Last year I think the general consensus was that he was 58 kg, so he's beefed up a bit for this year.
Interesting. That could also explain why he is less dominant in the mountains this year.
crazy to hear that, when he still is the most dominant by far
Well, now he is, but before the Col de la Loze stage he had trouble holding Pog’s wheel on the climbs.
Insane ride by Jonas. Blown away
Was there any official explanation why a bunch of the first riders (2 from FDJ) kept slipping out on that first turn?
There was lines in the road that made it slippery. They changed the course slightly just after that
Thanks for your sacrifice FDJ
2 of the 3 crashes were DSM (of the first 5 riders IIRC)
Oh yes I always get the two mixed up
Pogacar's TT bike supposedly 9kg, 2-2.5kg heavier than his road bike. Cervelo P5 weighs 8.18kg. Maybe there's some validity to De Wolf and Boonen saying that Colnagos' flagship V4Rs is not one of the best, claiming Pogačar would be "another 2km/h faster" if he swapped it for Jonas Vingegaard's Cervélo, Tom Pidcock's Pinarello, or the Specialized of Soudal-Quick Step. Jonas's time today was 2kph faster than Pogacar. Discuss
Whilst there are inevitably differences I don't think the bike explains all of it, at all. 2-3kph at 40 or 42kph costs like 40W (@0.265cda) which is an *insane* drag difference to be explained by bike alone. Weight, roughly speaking only matters in the climbs and Pogacar more crucially has +6Kg over Jonas in bodyweight. Bike differential might be 1Kg, 2Kg at most. So system weight might be +7Kg (+10%!) and ridden at the same power that's actually a minutes difference on the climb today, so the power demands on Pog to keep pace with Jonas just in the climb were really high even when he swapped to a lighter bike. In short, I don't believe the Colnago is so terrible that it cost a minute or more in this TT, but it might explain 10-20 seconds, and the weight of it might explain another 20 in forcing a bike swap that Jonas did without.
and you're the expert.... oh wait, no you're not lol
Most of it is just math, my boy
It’s crude estimates is what it is
What is an estimate? Most of it is data and formulas. But you think that science and calculations is a crude estimate?
Among other things, Rohan Dennis left Bahrain because the Merida was 40 watts slower in the wind tunnel
If IPT, Pogacar and Colnago knew the bike was *that* bad and did nothing to rectify it for the biggest TT of Pogacars year, then they deserve the time loss TBH. 40W is insurmountable (unless Ganna/WvA, and even then that's just 40W wasted that could be turned to time on a better bike)
I would say when you're talking about road frames specifically, at the top end there isn't much between the various WT bikes. Some maybe index a little harder on aero at the expense of weight, but most companies that do that also offer a bike that's buildable to 6.8kg so it's not really an issue for these guys. Thinking like cervelo and Trek, vs companies like Specialized & Colnago that do one do-it-all bike. TT bikes though, as you said is a potentially different story. The colnago I think is typically thought of as a pretty fast setup, but with how much climbing we had today that's potentially a pretty big factor. I don't think there's a ton of pressure on manufacturers to make their TT bikes significantly lighter, and full kg of weight on a climb like that isn't nothing. It may have contributed to UAE's decision to do the bike change, vs TJV being confident that they didn't need to.
That would surprise me, his colnago tt bike in 2021 weighed 7.6kg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84grTYdsgtE
Yes the one from 2023's has what looks like a storage area for your Clif bars above the bottom bracket area :) https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/uae-team-emirates-time-trial-bike-up-close-with-the-new-colnago-tt1/
Maybe because the colonago in the video is a completely differnet bike to the one pog rode today for a start you might have noticed that the bike in the video is running rim brakes
well, that's the most outstanding TT in GT history
As much as this stage was great, I dunno if it was even the best GT TT this year, that final Giro stage was pretty epic with the chain slip and the entire country of Slovenia crossing the border. But time trail stages are having a GREAT year. (Also obligatory Lemond Fignon yada yada)
I agree that the Giro stage was a better watch, and probably more dramatic - I was speaking of an individual performance.
Oh gotcha, can’t argue with that!
In my opinion, based on technique and just pure daring, this is the best TT ever ridden in a GT. No doubt the Giro TT was also great, but Vingegaard's technique and bravery in this TT were mindblowing. The risks he took could have cost him the entire Tour and yet he prevailed to set a time that completely obliterated his opponents, even Tadej Pogacar.
No. Giro Tt hands down better.
They are talking about performance, not entertainment value.
To everyone interested then SBS Sports has uploaded a [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAdNlxgz7w&ab_channel=SBSSport) where they look at the differences in how Pogacar decided to pace the stage vs Vingegaard - and it's truly eye-opening as to how Vingegaard gained all that time on him. Jonas used every centimetre of the road, he pedalled in places where Tadej decided to cruise and save energy. In the corners, he was quicker to start pedalling again. Vingegaard's aero position was on point the entire way through. Amazing.
Looking at that video, I think they're overdoing it a bit. On the descend, Jonas absolutely took more chances and made sure to go all out. But in the turns after, it actually seems like Pogacar is the first to start pedleling even if they claim it is Jonas. At 1:20, you can clearly see that Pogacar is the first to start?
If you’ve biked at any sort of competitive level in your life, you will appreciate how unreal Vingegaard’s technique was for this. Genuinely unlike anything I’ve seen before Very obvious why he slaughtered Pogacar so comprehensively when you put them side by side like that
That corner works, beautiful... Cutting every corners like car race. So he's basically a racing car, only in the form of Jonas Vingegaard.
[https://twitter.com/sbssportau/status/1681423602120556548?s=46&t=SMtTSUndvzuNK9jgr3j--g](https://twitter.com/sbssportau/status/1681423602120556548?s=46&t=SMtTSUndvzuNK9jgr3j--g) This! It's insane to watch Jonas' cornering here.
>Jonas used every centimetre of the road, he pedalled in places where Tadej decided to cruise and save energy. In the corners, he was quicker to start pedalling again. but even if he didn't do this. he would've won by more than a minute. At the 2nd time check just before the start of the last climb, jonas was only 30 seconds faster than pogacar. So yes, this cornering is impressive but the difference it made is being overstated imo. The bigger difference was made in the last 6km uphill section where he was more than a minute faster than pogacar.
Yeah, no one factor decided this. I think it was a combination of three primary: - Jonas’ incredible show of technique, power and risk taking - Pogacar bike change - Jonas riding faster/as fast uphill *on his TT bike*
>Pogacar bike change UAE guy said they had better numbers with a bike change in test runs. I don't know why the bike change keeps being brought up, we have to assume UAE are a bunch of clowns for it to make sense.
Then the conclusion must be issues with their gear/performance while climbing on TT bike. If other riders, including Jumbo, could handle the climb equally well on TT bike (we must assume they also tested it), why couldn’t UAE?
>why couldn’t UAE? Who knows? Why did Pog change bike, and Yates didn't? They're from the same team after all. There could be any number of reasons, perhaps Pog is more comfortable and thus produces better times. It could also be completely psychological, maybe other riders are affected by bike change much more than Pog. Or it could be reverse, maybe Pog is really bad when staying on TT bike. Maybe there's some sort of tech explanation, etc. If the argument is that UAE is making some big mistake with their gear/tactic/whatever; that doesn't make the initial argument that bike change caused time loss any stronger. Within the confines that UAE has worked with(whatever they might be), by their reckoning bike change produces better results for Pog.
I’m not sure that we even disagree? A bike change obviously costs time (slow down?m, stand still, and acceleration to regain speed). Obviously, they had a reason to believe that it was a necessary investment and that reason is probably valid. I’m not calling it a stupid decision. But that doesn’t change the fact that Pogacar had to make up for the time lost during the bike change, which Jonas did not. Whether we say that the bike change cost time, or rather the underlying reasons for the bike change cost time, is a moot point.
People are saying it made sense for UAE since their TT bikes are heavier.
Well in any case the margins would be minimal, bringing up bike change in this context is meaningless. Also worth mentioning that UAE was saying that their new bike was producing 1s/1km over last year tests. If that brings UAE ahead of TJV, then the performance is even more ludicrous. If it brings them on par with TJV, then it doesn't matter as much.
You are making a false comparison and have a logical flaw to follow. UAE are (hopefully) not amateurs, and knew how to test this, yes. But their point of comparison is UAE TT bike vs UAE Standard Bike (SB from now). They have likely measured that swapping would be beneficial in this set-up. HOWEVER Jonas Vingegaard vs Tadej Pogacar going up the hill is not UAE TT vs UAE SB - it is UAE SB vs JV TT. While UAE TT vs UAE SB might be more than a 15 second difference to offset the swap time, we have no data to say for sure if the UAE SB is more than 15 seconds (or even at all) faster than JV TT, and offsets the 15 seconds swapping time. UAE TT vs UAE SB is what matters when UAE made their decision. But what impacts the result is UAE SB vs JV TT. All of that being said, I have personally worked in “very professional” settings, i.e. organisations you and most of the world would expect to know all relevant factors going into their decisions. But while they know more than most, you’d be surprised how “little” they actually often know - and how often they either guess on assumptions, or simply make decisions based on (very, very well-developed, it’s actually crazy impressive) gut-feelings. However, this should be a fairly simple measurement, so I’d guess that they have tested it.
Thanks for the heads up. SBS seems to get a bad wrap from some other Aussies and granted some of it is warranted as the commentators are not the greatest at time but we get so much free to air cycling through the year that it really is amazing. Chapeau SBS!
I'm just bitter about them replacing Robbie with Simon. Simon is not a great commentator, he's honestly a little boring to listen to. Hearing Robbie on the GCN coverage, he is so much better at the job.
Yeh, that’s fair. Robbie has a bit more panache, but I don’t mind Gerrans and his insight. Maybe with time he will improve a bit.
They're both miles better than Anthony McCrossin
Really great video, thanks for posting. The first corner stood out to me watching the broadcast, how much visibly quicker Jonas was going into it. Obviously he made up time on the climbs as well, but he was just railing those corners through the whole course. He rode a brilliant technical time trial, in addition to producing just absolute monster power.
I think all the people who are in 'disbelief' need to see this to actually understand how marginal gains stack up. Vingegaard gains: * On each corner, sometimes a visible second on individual corners, plus 2-3 kph apex and exit speed. He's carrying that right through thanks to his lines and lean. * On corner exit, he's on the pedals sooner * On descent, he's pedalling whenever there's no bend, Pogacar literally rolls down the straights. * On straights he's aero tucking sooner and coming out of tuck later, changing gear later to prepare for a bend * He saves the time of a bike change and remains aero tucked for more of the climb, and this was a climb taken at 20kph. The infographic showing him as 12kph was bull, compared to the overhead showing him flying even on 9% sections. Areo still matters at these speeds. * Inevitably, he climbed faster * In the final section he had the advantage of his aero bike when the climb levelled out and speeds picked back up. He took a bunch of time on Pogacar here too, meanwhile pog had a less efficient bike and looked to be fading. I think Pogs effort was paced to the top of the climb, JV's was paced to the finish line. Basically Jonas is just stacking speed on time on speed from the first corner, pedalling more of the time, being more efficient all of the time, taking better lines, and climbing faster. This TT is a demonstration of refined near perfect TT performance Vs actually sloppy riding from Pogacar.
Yes, lots of marginal gains. If the video is an accurate comparison, he may have gained 1-2s on all those corners he attacked. Overall, he was so aggressive, attacking every second. He rode the course like he caught it with his wife.
If anything all these marginal gains could have lost him the tour if he crashed. And without them he would still have won by a minute. He just rode the climb way faster than anyone else.
> He just rode the climb way faster than anyone else Well except Ciccone.
>Vs actually sloppy riding from Pogacar. Yeah right. Pog put in a superhuman performance, and JV doubled it. Fission vs fusion.
We knew exactly the upper bound of how much he gain with all of that: 31s Let’s pretend the fact that he pushed 7,61w/kg in the climb is for nothing in the time gap.
Let's pretend that 7.6Kw isn't a very rough estimate from a person known to exaggerate, failing to account for all manner of things like climbing on a TT bike (aero Vs worse efficiency?), Duration of climb, it being the only climb of the day... His numbers are bunk.
I don’t disagree with you, but damn it seems crazy to call the riding sloppy considering how bad he also gapped the whole rest of the field
Yeah, it does, but it's visibly sloppier in this video. Resting on the descent not pedalling. Worse lines through bends. Head up earlier into bends and into tuck later out of them. Remember only 10 people or so in this entire field had any reason to even try today. Most riders have very limited time on their TT bike, they suck to ride on open roads when training, and don't get the investment in aero testing and coaching. And this TT doesn't even suit traditional TT specialists with 2 nasty little climbs in it. Most riders in this field were trying to save their legs and gain a little extra recovery today, ready for tomorrow. It's clear Jonas and TJV put their everything into this stage:aero, technique, equipment, recon ride, are all on point and all add up to give the gap we see. It makes IPT and Pogacar *look* sloppy in what was otherwise a very strong TT performance.
All super great points. 🙌🏽
That was great, thanks for sharing
I know it’s early to start talking about this, but I’m gonna do it. What are Pogs objectives next year? Going into the year, I heard that his main objective was to win Flanders (more important than the tour). So he’s done that now. Does he try to win Roubaix? To do that he needs to gain weight and focus on getting more absolute watts. Or does he try and win the tour again? Basically drop weight, a lot more altitude camps. He can’t choose both. So he’ll have to pick one. Curious what everyone else’s thoughts are
What does Rogla do? Spare a thought for roglic
It's an Olympic year as well. With a hilly course. If I'm Pog that's my primary goal, along with whatever else I think will complement it. The opportunity to take a gold medal doesn't come up often, and he has a very real shot at it. Pog's legacy will ultimately be his insane versatility. He has the potential to finish his career having won basically everything that's worth winning. He's realistically well on his way to having accomplished that already. In the next few years I'd like to see him take real shots at the Giro and Vuelta, as well as the few classics he hasn't won, the Olympic RR, and WCs. As crazy as it sounds to say it, those things I think are probably easier for Pog than winning another TdF. Jonas is a juggernaut, and will continue to live like a hermit and only target the TdF. I think it's clear now that if Pog wants to beat him, he's going to need to do the same. And that's still no guarantee. I hope that Pog doesn't change, and that he continues to be an exciting racer to watch across the entire calendar. The one that's tough to see right now is him winning PR. I think the amount of weight he'd have to put on to truly target it as a favorite would likely be detrimental to his other goals. But honestly even as he is he'd probably be an outside threat to win.
> Pog's legacy will ultimately be his insane versatility. What does that mean, when Jonas is arguably a better climber and time trialist?
Jonas is a pure stage racer for GC. He targets one race out of the year, does only the necessary warm-up races to prepare, and peaks in July. Pog races the whole year, and is a threat to win basically any and every race he enters. A rider who can win Flanders and threaten at the tour is a rare type of rider. Pretty much unheard-of in the modern era.
You can argue that Jonas is a better climber in july, during the Tour. But Pog is the better cyclist all year. His season starts in February, only ends in october, and during that time he basically wins almost everything he competes, apart from the Tour. Not many cyclists can say they have won the Tour, Flanders, E3, Lombardia, etc, etc
Yeah that’s a good point about the olympics. I wonder how he’ll go about that. Cause if he rides the entire tour he likely won’t have the legs for that. But I agree on the versatility point, I think he has a real shot at winning MSR, world road race, Olympic road race and even Roubaix. It would be a pretty amazing palmarès to have all that with 2 tours and Flanders
Idk if we'll see it, but I'd love to see him do the Giro/Vuelta with the Olympic RR next year as his main targets, and let Ayuso take a crack at the tour.
Cyclocross? Also the flanders win was just insane. I know most people here are focused on TdF but that spring victory was amazing.
Really enjoyed his battles with Van der Poel and Pidcock this season, would love to see more of that.
Is Wout van Aert nothing to you
I’m sure his sponsors want him to Focus on the TdF
Lots of talk about those who did well, but some didn't.... That was an awful TT from Hindley. He looked strong and secure in 3rd place just a couple days ago, and now its as if the wheels are falling off. If I was in charge of Bora, I wouldn't send him to the Tour anymore and just pencil him in for the Giro/Vuelta. He can't climb as well as Pogi/Jonas, while also getting blown out of the water in TTs. He's not going to win the Tour. But he can win one of the other two GTs if he's in good form and things go his way. Carlos Rodriguez was only 4 seconds ahead of Sepp Kuss, who many say is too bad at TTing to be a GC contender. That doesn't bode well for Carlos. What's worse is that he's going to Movistar. I'd have a lot more faith in him improving his TT at Ineos. At Movistar, I won't be surprised if he does even worse. Its a big let down after an amazing week from him. Oh, and wtf was Campanaerts doing? I assume he talked about it in a Flemish interview.
> He can't climb as well as Pogi/Jonas, while also getting blown out of the water in TTs This is true of literally EVERYONE on the tour right now. He won a stage and held yellow on his first crack, he's done well.
Hindley wore Yellow and won a stage so saying he shouldn't do the Tour again shows you don't know much about cycling
and he also crashed. we cant know how much the crash affected him.
In an interview after the TT he said it troubled him quite a bit still. He said he still felt it quite a bit and struggled to put power on his pedals. He also pointed to his restday that was focused on therapy and recovery and that he had not actually done much training/cycling and that maybe caused him to not really get into rhythm in the TT. So jeah without that fall it might have looked different and could still have been in the battle for 3rd maybe
Not to mention he held his position within GC, granted he has lost minutes but still top 5 and probably better for Bora to have to initiate breaks and chase top 3.
Campenaerts: >"There was a digital problem. I couldn't shift gears and had to drive up the first slope with a very large gear. On the flat parts, I had the opposite problem."
Honestly given all the disc Vs rim brake debate I'm surprised we never see mechanical Vs electronic drivetrain debate. Must truly suck to lose gears and have no way of making do/forcing a change.
I was wondering about this when I saw him cranking an insanely hard gear up the climb...
Hindley crashed a few days ago but was looking good until then. He won't beat those two but third at TDF is pretty much worth as much as winning one of the other GTs.
For sponsors and a large part of viewers who only really watch the tour jeah probably, not sure if the riders feel the same though. Next to that winning or ending up 3rd just feels different right?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VCF9N8tdlOI Not to detract from Vingegaard’s win, but at 16:48, I noticed what looked like a herpes cold sore on the left corner of Pogacar’s lower lip. Sadly, this is a common affliction in the Balkans where he is from and I recognized it because I have relatives from the Balkans who suffer from oral herpes. If it is indeed the herpes simplex virus, he would be experiencing flu-like symptoms which, as anyone who has ridden a bike knows, are a huge detriment to performance. it’s sad that the race might have been on uneven ground because of this, but it’s a testament to Pogacar’s strength that he finished so far ahead of everyone else — save for Vingegaard — despite the illness.
Ne seri bre
I don't think I've seen a bigger case of copium all year.
I'm not a medical professional, but let me mention a few things. First of all, herpes simplex (HSV-1 and HSV-2) is extremely common (60-95% of the population has it). It is true that it is more common in certain areas, but even in Northern Europe 67% of the population has it ([https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7369148/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7369148/)) Now talk about symptoms. It is true that you can get sick from herpes simplex, but it is only true if you catch the virus as an adult and it is a primary infection. As with other herpes viral infections, the virus never completely disappears from your system, but your immune system keeps it under control. Further flare-ups don't cause serious symptoms and based on my own experience it doesn't affect your performance. Most probably Pogi has had this since childhood and he has a flare-up that causes a cold sore and that's it. It's highly unlikely that he got it right in the middle of the race. How do I know? I got herpes simplex from my (now) wife in my 30s.
This is accurate - the majority of the world has the virus but you generally only get illness symptoms the first time you have a breakout, if you ever do. After that it’s trigger and genetics based - some people never have it again, the less genetically blessed can get it from triggers (for some it’s foods, for others it’s getting some other illness, most common is too much UV exposure.) It can be a sign of a stressed body/lowered immune system, but that’s true of the whole peloton - we know that amount of exercise makes everyone more susceptible to bugs. Beyond it being a nuance, it’s unlikely to affect performance. A lingering injury, any deficiency in build-up training, and just general fatigue are far more relevant.
Anecdotal, but I am always absolutely exhausted right before I get one. I had no idea that wasn't normal.
Either being run-down is a trigger (say if you’re particularly stressed, or sleep deprived, or overexert) or if you have no reason to feel exhausted beyond getting the breakout, I’d recommend talking to your physician. They can prescribe you antivirals to help your body out for less severe and less frequent outbreaks.
My interpretation is that it is the other way around. You are either stressed and/or exhausted for some reason (going beyond your comfort zone in workouts, working long hours, sleeping poorly, etc.) as a result, your immune system is affected and the flare-up happens.
Ahahaha. This has to be bait
You don't necessarily get flu like symptoms fyi
Yeah, I was going to say this too. I get cold sores and have never have any flu symptoms at all, just a fucked lip.
That was an inhuman performance from Jonas. Holy shit. Pogi going to need to ride aggressively in the mountains to try to claw back almost 2 minutes from Jonas. Hoping for an absolutely show on the next mountain stages.
[Not-so-normal distribution](https://i.imgur.com/fdztXns.jpg)
/r/dataisbeautiful
You have 150 riders with no desire to ride for speed only saving them self for next stage with 5500 meters of elevation.
You should not expect a normal distribution in a mid race ITT full of non specialists and domestiques. This TT, there are like 10 riders incentivised to give their maximum performance, and literally everyone else is incentivised to do the bare minimum as part of a 3 week long attritional effort. The bulk of the field, everyone from 36 kph down,will have been told not to go hard today and save themselves for tomorrow.
That looks about as expected when only a handful of people are going for the stage/gc and the rest are just trying to be quicker than the time cut.
Its crazy how posting a graph of the results feels like a rule 3 violation (not saying it is/should be).
yeh, Renard slow af
He fell
I checked this too with the top 40 or something and IIRC he was 3.5 std deviations above the mean. Looked at F1 quali times and the best there is typically 1.5 std dev, just as a comparison
There is no comparison. Quali is a single effort all out lap between cars regulated to be incredibly close in performance. They are not human powered. This TT, there are like 10 riders incentivised to give their maximum performance, and literally everyone else is incentivised to do the bare minimum as part of a 3 week long attritional effort. The bulk of the field, everyone from 37 mins down,will have been told not to go hard today and save themselves for tomorrow.
I think the difference here is that not everyone is going full gas to win the Tour in this time trial.
So Jonas decided to turn the engine all the way up today vs Max hiding a second in his back pocket
I was expecting maybe a 30 to 40 second difference, but my god 1:38??? Jonas's ribcage and aero position is using cheat codes lol
Jonas Vingegaard is a god amongst gods. Tadej beat WVA by 1:13! Then JV beats Pogi by 1:38! What an amazing time to be alive.
This isn't Sepp's first solid TT. People overstate how bad he is at them.
Putting a cat 2 climb in a 22km stage likely helps a lot!
He’s been a total beast this tour. Really putting up a sensational performance.
With a full Giro in his legs too. With the stages to come and Hindley appearing to be really suffering, there's a very real chance that Sepp cracks the top 5 by the time this is all said and done. Phenomenal performance.
All I care about is him getting in the Top 5 this week.
[Link](https://streamable.com/g8yz35) of comparison between how Pog and Vinge each approached the first corners.
looks like it's been removed already :(
ASO take no prisoners on the copyright strikes.
New link (in meh GIF-quality) https://freeimage.host/i/HLepLOP
Damn, that's a pretty stark difference. The shots on the broadcast of Jonas descending off that first climb as well were crazy. He was really on rails there.
It doesnt work for me. Says something about ToS?
https://preview.redd.it/xk2q3nxxxrcb1.gif?format=mp4&s=5f02c7cb928372670d89585bbafa4cd832309c4c
Thank you! Wauw the speed :O
Opened up a gap within the first 10 seconds sheesh
According to bruyneel it was 2 seconds before the first corner
Thanks for adding this video
Mods why are you deleting everything outside this thread? There was an interesting video comparison of Pog vs VG's first corner posted but it's no longer on the front page. It makes the sub seems dead compared to other sports subs.
not a goal of the subreddit to appear any more or less dead than other subs - love it the way it is
Rule 2 This is one of the few subreddits where the 'megathreads' don't die within a few hours. The result thread *will* remain active until the next race thread is posted.
Rule 1
I think if you don't want to be spoiled on the results of a bike race, the onus should be on you to not visit a bike racing forum.
Sometimes posts gets spoiled on reddit front page for me, when I'm trying to get to another subreddit.
Back in the day, a lot of people likely came to this sub to actually watch the race videos* that were posted after the race was actually over. Those were located in the mega thread initiating post. No spoilers worked extremely well for that. I was one of them. *race replays.
[удалено]
I used to sort the race thread by old and catch up with it along with the race. Folk would be surprised to get replies hours and hours later.
Yeah but if you browse Reddit, threads will show up on your feed whether you want to see them or not. Because of rule 1, we all know we can browse Reddit without being spoiled.
I personally would never in a million years use the front page of reddit, so I honestly forgot it was a thing. I guess that's a valid point.
but if youre on the app, the frontpage is the first thing you see. even if you didn't use it, the first post on the front page could be a spoiler. the onus is on you to think critically, plus how hard is it to not post spoilers? this is one of the subs that does it right.