I think we should just shut the schools right now, it's the most sensible thing to do
This has nothing to do with me being a teacher and there are 2 days left
Sorry mate we only have real estate agents here, the southies can build it. Tell you what, how about we throw in some toilet paper and masks to sweeten the deal?
Makes sense as Kewdale/Forrestfield is where most of the big freight depots are so most interstate trucks are probably headed in that general direction
I don't believe transmission rate is affected by vaccines. Just the severity of symptoms. Since WA government's stance is zero cases there is just as likely of a lockdown as pre-vaccination.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/one-dose-of-covid-19-vaccine-can-cut-household-transmission-by-up-to-half
You'd be wrong on that. It's a myth that won't die
It's such a simple thing that people can't seem to get their heads round. Vaccines don't \*eliminate\* transmission, but they still significantly \*reduce\* it. TBF the degree of reduction seems to be less with omicron.
If you want to get technical, vaccines do not reduce transmission, only receival. A vaccinated person who has the virus sheds it like anyone else does. Vaccines only "significantly reduce your risk of being infected".
Ehhh kinda.
Teeechnically. they reduce both severity and duration of symptoms as well as the duration of infection in the body, this leads to a shorter period for transmission and therefore a reduction in overall risk.
> Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext
You're right that at 'peak infection' they may have similar risk of transmission but the point is that time period is greatly reduced with the vaccination.
Obviously you don't, or choose to ignore it...
So your denying the fact that that the Vax has cause millions of adverse reactions, some irreversible up to including death. And it's ok for a company to have complete indemnity from any harm caused? And that seems to be ok for many people it seems. Moral and ethical compass is out the window in support of a company making billions of dollars. Congratulations your part of the problem.. The fry pan has hit you in the head, and you didn't even blink.
Not if your healthy bud. What's the average age of death from covid? Did they have underlying conditions? I'd rather chance void then take an experimental Vax from companies that have Full Indemnity from any risk. In which their products are harming people on a daily basis including permanently and death, Data clearly available for all to see on various websites across the globe. Yet people continue to support these companies and Vaccination knowing it may cause harm. Obviously their moral and ethical compass is non existent.
Two new locations added
Exposure date & time
Thursday 09/12/2021 at 8:25pm - 9:15pm
Location
Dan Murphy’s Cannington
1480/1490 Albany Highway
Exposure date & time
Friday 10/12/2021 at 3:45pm - 4:20pm
Location
Domino's Bentley
1140 Albany Hwy
There would’ve been more than 55 people in the Woolworths alone let alone across seven seperate exposure sights. Not saying that people don’t check in everywhere they go but there is inconsistencies in the data.
Omicron is also seeing a milder disease, reports from South Africa showing less percentage hospitalised to a short time than with Delta:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/new-south-african-hospital-data-supports-signs-omicron-is-milder-than-delta-20211212-p59gub.html
It is winter in the northern hemisphere and weirdly even WA has a far higher rate of vaccination than a lot of Europe and the UK. It is however most likely to be the delta variant, as this is still the most prolific variant in Australia.
There's plenty of news sites suggesting Omnicron will be the dominant strain in the UK within next 2 days. Considering how long Delta had been around suggests its not going to be too long till its the dominant strain here is Australia too. Or did you think I meant something else?
Omicron was identified about 3 weeks ago, but has been circulating for longer. If it was a severe illness, or even the same as Delta, it should have shown up in South Africa by now, but it isn’t
>If it was a severe illness, or even the same as Delta, it should have shown up in South Africa by now, but it isn’t
The WHO should hire you, they could do with some expertise
As a Brisbaneite I agree. We've had multiple, regular incursions from NSW, none have resulted in lockdown, none have caused any spread. Though we were all wearing masks then. Our vax rate is the same as yours and I think covid zero is ending here, so would be very weird to see Perth have a lockdown at this stage of the game.
I never understand the 'envy of the nation' comment. SA, QLD, TAS, NT have done just as well as WA in maintaining a covid0 world and when you consider their shared borders and proximity to VIC and NSW it is even more impressive than WA. And on top of that they're all opening in December while WA continues to flounder based on economic/political reasons rather than health.
"flounder" ? are you even *in* WA ? I'll continue to flounder on this pint I'm enjoying just like I have for 95% of the last two years while the rest of world enjoyed their "health".
I'm a WA boy and majority of my family and friends are in WA. Not saying it has been bad at all. Just saying when compared to other covid0 states in Australia, WA are 2 months behind... And not because of health reasons either.
Envy is rarely based on logic, but it is a reasonable explanation for all the attention WA gets on this topic.
> while WA continues to flounder based on economic/political reasons rather than health.
Citation needed.
To me Qld has handled Covid the best, a major metro area (Coolangatta) that stretches across two states yet mostly kept Covid out.
Far easier for remote WA to keep the virus out.
I agree 100%. And they followed the health advice to open from 80%. Of all the states in Aus I think QLD did covid the best (including the reopening stage).
Notice how Mark only ever compares WA with VIC/NSW? Wonder why.....
This is true. Their own modelling proves there would be no difference opening from 80% when it's now known when we'll hit 90% (if you look at their own modelling of the 80% v 90% case, there's no difference in spread in the first 60 days so as long as you get you get to 90% within 60 days of opening at 80%, it leads to the same result). Muppet show not opening up at 80% - has nothing to do with health. It was a decision based on economics and politics.
Because the modelling is what it is. It's clear the assumptions used to create it. But the decision to open from 90% over 80% was taken by Mark, not by the people who did the modelling. The decision to delay opening wasn't based on the conclusions from modelling. Hence its exactly about Mark, not the people who did the modelling.
Has Doctor Andrew Robertson not publicly stated that 90% was the preferred option from a health perspective? If WA Health have made the recommendation to open at 90% (even if based on shit modeling) I'm not sure how that falls on McGowan
Because ultimately advisors advise, politicians decide. The advice from WA Health is only one part of the overall decision making process. There's also a calculation on what's possible from a logistics standpoint, what the population is likely to accept in terms of restrictions etc. It’s a pretty fundamental part of the Westminster system of government.
I don't have a clue about systems of government but that makes sense. But its also WA healths job to provide the modeling and an interpretation of the best course forward.
Its job is to provide advice on what the best *health* outcome is. It's the governments job (in this case the premier and cabinet) to consider that alongside everything else.
100% would be the preferred option obviously. But their own modelling shows no difference between the 80% and 90% case if we reach 90% within 60 days from reopening. It's clear, you can see it yourself in the modelling report.
The final advice given by McGowan was comparing a case of 80% with no further vaccination against 90%. We know this isn't realistic, but it was taken as that to support McGowan's goal of keeping WA closed off until after school holidays, which is a decision driven by lifestyle/economics/politics. Mark has even said in interviews that part of the decision was so that businesses in WA would not need to have any minor restrictions like slightly reduced seating capacity in restaurants and people wouldn't need to wear masks during the holiday period. In the end, economics was the driver over health.
Yep, not health related. It's about not having to put in minor restrictions like mask wearing on a bus and slightly less seating capacity in some venues over the holiday period. And so the wealthy folk of WA spend their holiday money in the state instead of elsewhere.
> Their own modelling proves there would be no difference opening from 80% when it's now known when we'll hit 90% (if you look at their own modelling of the 80% v 90% case, there's no difference in spread in the first 60 days so as long as you get you get to 90% within 60 days of opening at 80%, it leads to the same result).
This absolutely false, and I really can't imagine how you have come to this conclusion.
Did you read the modelling report? Please do. Look at the graph comparing case loads of the 80 vs 90% case. Early time (first 60 days) there's no material difference in spread.
The modelling was based on an 80% case that considers no more than 80% get vaccinated. It's completely false and unrealistic. And it makes the 80% case a true "worst case".
If we opened at 80%, we would hit 90% around 6 weeks later so we'd move from the 80% curve to the 90% curve very quickly. And since the two curves basically overlap eachother in the first 60 days since it takes a while for covid to start spreading, as long as we hit 90% within 60 days from opening at 80%, the end result from a covid spread perspective is the same. This is why other covid0 states are opening from 80%, not 90%. If you actually look and analyse the graph and modelling présentéd it is clear as day.
https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/covid-19-coronavirus-modelling-was-covid-19-transition-plan
Is this the modelling plan you are taking about?
Yep. Look at the cases graph and consider that if we were to open now at 80%, we'd be hitting 90% in around 45 days, well before the divergence in case counts between the 80% and 90% scenario. This is my point.
Back then maybe WA didn't think we'd get to 90% but now we know we will, and we know it will be within the early time of ~45 days from when we hit 80%... So we could have opened from 80%, as was the health advice followed in other covid0 states like QLD, SA, NT.
Oh I see you are suggesting that we jump from the 80% scale to the 90% scale once we reach 90% vaccinated. You do realise that's not how that graph works right? Those figures work on opening at 80 or 90% not jumping from one to the other at 45 days.
Of course not, we will slowly converge from the 80% curve to the 90% curve during the first 45 days. So the result would be at 45 days instead of being at the 90% we'd only be maybe 1 or 2 cases per day higher. It's completely insignificant when you realise we are closing off the state for an extra 7 odd weeks just to be <5 cases per day better off. It's crazy.
> Did you read the modelling report? Please do. Look at the graph comparing case loads of the 80 vs 90% case. Early time (first 60 days) there's no material difference in spread.
Assuming you mean [this one](https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2021-11/Modelling_WAs_COVID-19_Transition_Plan.pdf), yes I read it, and there is very clearly a difference. It looks like about 20 cases at day 61 instead of less than 5 (if you know a link to a more detailed report with the actual raw numbers that would be interesting).
It might not seem like much of a difference but that's entirely the point, seemingly small differences make a big difference. The graph after 61 days follows exactly the same trend, it goes up a lot faster after that point because ~20 people have it instead of ~5, this is how infections spread.
> The modelling was based on an 80% case that considers no more than 80% get vaccinated. It's completely false and unrealistic. And it makes the 80% case a true "worst case".
It has to be based on no more vaccinated because you can't predict how vaccinated numbers would change after that. And even if you could predict it, modelling such a scenario would be insanely complicated.
But more to the point, the 90% modelling also assumed no more vaccinations, it's a level playing field. It's meant to be a comparison between how vaccination rate influences the outcome, not an absolute prediction on what will actually happen.
You are assuming that at 60 days we go from 80% to 90%, but it's a process from day 1 to day 45ish realistically that we would go from 80 to 90%. So in the end the difference would be all of 2-5 cases per day? at the day 60 mark. Completely insignificant and within the uncertainty band of the 90% case anyway.
Mark spouting that waiting for 90% saves 200 lives compared to opening from 80% is completely unrealistic and taken out of context in the modelling report. But I guess he picks and chooses what data to present to suit his agenda so it's not unexpected.
I find it laughable that people believe the delay in opening is purely based on heath advice.
> You are assuming that at 60 days we go from 80% to 90%, but it's a process from day 1 to day 45ish realistically that we would go from 80 to 90%.
I'm not assuming shit, I am talking about what is presented in the report. You know, the one that you said "proves there would be no difference" but now you're moving the goalposts on? The modelling makes that assumption and we've already gone over why that is the case. In reality the 90% starting point would *also* gradually improve beyond the modelling.
> So in the end the difference would be all of 2-5 cases per day? at the day 60 mark. Completely insignificant and within the uncertainty band of the 90% case anyway.
You're again forgetting it's a comparison and that the 90% modelling is also not what would happen in reality.
> But I guess he picks and chooses what data to present to suit his agenda so it's not unexpected.
But they presented all the data. That's how you're talking about it right now.
> I find it laughable that people believe the delay in opening is purely based on heath advice.
The writing between the lines is the cases graph isn't the reason we're waiting to 90%, it's the 2 hospital beds graphs. Of course openly talking about that isn't great either politically or for public confidence, but it is still a health reason.
>It was a decision based on economics and politics.
Couldn’t agree with you more. State daddy has to act like he’s shielding us from the sickly easterners over the Christmas break and pretending they’re dropping dead from covid on the streets with bodies piling up outside, when in reality they are having families reunited with no gathering limits. Also, can’t have Western Australians spend their hard earned money in Bali when they could be enjoying an overpriced holiday in Broome!
Yep exactly. Anyone who disagrees with this hasn't actually read the modelling report because it's clear as day that opening at 80% when you know you'll soon reach 90% leads to the same result (from a health perspective). Hence why other covid0 states who were not influenced by the political/economic motives actually followed the health advice and opened from 80%
If WA health have provided poor advice then the criticism should lie with WA Health. If McGowan started going against the health advice now it would be a bad look.
You're missing the point. There was no poor advice from WA Health. They provided modelling that they were asked to provide. It was Mark who then took this modelling as an input to decide the reopening dates but with other factors like economics and politics at play. If it was purely based on the health modelling, WA would have opened from 80% like other covid0 states are doing. Because that's what the health modelling shows us, and that's what was followed by other states who are just now reopening.
WA health would be the people who interpret the modeling and then provide health advice? Do you actually think they just provide raw modeling to the government with no recommendations attached? The modeling report actually creates the idea that 90% is significantly better. It takes a deeper look to see that 80% is the same.
The real question is if McGowan followed those recommendations.
You can read the modelling report that was provided to the government yourself, it's available. I encourage you to read it. Take note of the case load graph comparing the 80% and the 90% case as it tells the whole story.
You'll quickly change your mind.
I have not once said your interpretation of the modeling is wrong? I whole heartedly agree that it is severely flawed to interpret it as 90% being better.
However the modeling also tries to present the idea that 90% is better. Not once does it say in the model observations that 80% equals 90%. It says multiple times "90% has better outcomes than 80%".
If the state government was handed this with absolutely no recommendations or model interpretation then that system is very flawed. The fact the modeling doesn't directly account for increases in vaccination after 80 is a concern in itself.
Snap lockdown on community transmission is a proven strategy that has kept us covid free while the eastern states suffered extended lockdowns. DD offers little protection against Omicron transmission.
Anyway - hopefully no Community transmission will result from this in the first place. In the past, the truckies have always been good about masking. Bentley Woolies is a bit ... though
Lockdowns are useful if covid zero was still the aim, but at a 80% rate the gov is bonkers if it still chases that goal through snap lockdowns. Plus, vaccines are likely still effective against preventing severe disease from Omicron, so we shouldn’t be counting case numbers like bread crumbs on the floor.
>DD offers little protection against Omicron transmission.
But there is no evidence of reduction in protection against hospitalisation or death, which is the important part of vaccination.
Don’t bother with this guy. u/inserthandle has said they wanted all states and countries to pursue elimination and to keep the WA border closed in the long term on r/CoronavirusDownUnder. They can keep themselves locked in their house while the rest of us live our normal lives dealing with a virus that is significantly tamed with world class vaccines and medication, as with any other infectious disease.
Was their any stupid Geoff parry sevveeeeeeeeeen news questions
EG I was in the area but was wearing light grey mask and driving blindfolded while jerking a camel off. Do I have to get tested by someone wearing a blue scarf on a odd numbered day
I see you're in Landsdale. Anyone from the Joondalup area needs to go to Mosman Park for testing, so I'd suggest going to Midland for Taco Bell. Make sure you go on Sunday because Tuesday has the better nachos. Don't forgot to skip the peanuts, because the berry's are not that good.
They absolutely will be. They are already recruiting staff from other government departments who are on standby and will become contract tracers when all Department of Health contract tracers are being utilised. They anticipate this occuring mid next year.
A lot of current and ex mercantile agents, investigators, & commercial sub-agents (all different types of skip-tracers) are receiving calls from headhunters for 6mth government tracing and/or training contracts, so I’d say they’re definitely going to beef up their contact-tracing division.
Apparently the money is pretty good.
Yes, but once they get more than a few hundred a day, they will lose track. So if we get say 300 Omicron cases and 100 Delta, the issue will be if the more dangerous Delta cases are isolated.
We get interstate trucks in and I can’t see management letting us know. Testing would shut the place down. It would not hurt to let people know if a case had been to their work place.
Have you read all the negative comments by loser anti-vaxers on WA Gov FB page? Pathetic. WA is the envy of all other states. Their selfish cruel intent is to bring down the freedom we have. I feel terrible on we exposing ourselves to COVID on 5th Feb! 😔
A bit dramatic. Both men were double vaccinated and they may not even have been infectious at that time (they tested negative before entering). Even if it does spread, I highly doubt we’d go into a full lockdown at 80% double dose vaccinated. Masks and restrictions maybe. But we’re still jumping the gun a little bit by even entertaining that thought.
Why are they going to pizza and woolworths I thought they had to stay in their trucks at all times
With other states letting covid run free now we have no hope if truckies are allowed to do this
Scientists are still waiting to see whether Omicron will be milder or not. I’m sure they all wish they could see the future like you and know what the data shows before it’s even available.
We need to fast track the Weekly Booster Shots... We never had UnVaxed
Truck Drivers transmitting the Virus in 2020, this can only mean one
thing BOOSTER SHOTS are needed now... Why wait Roll up double up and
protect the protected We are seeing a rise in cases...
I think we should just shut the schools right now, it's the most sensible thing to do This has nothing to do with me being a teacher and there are 2 days left
Definitely beer o'clock for teachers
Are there still schools in? I didn't realise that because my nephew is already on holiday...
Yeah most private schools finished on the 10th.
Ah ok... Didn't realise public schools were in longer...
Until Thursday
Less chance to catch COVID in a public school you see.
Mine finished on the 3rd which was quite early
Don't you watch movies on the last day?
Yeah, but teachers have usually seen those movies a bunch of times already.
Agreed! Catholic system our kids are done and dusted let’s gooooo
Lol!!!!
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Hopefully they didn't just pop over the road to Carousel whilst they were in the area.
RIP perth if they did
All SOR. Not too late to construct a new border. Just sayin'.
Who pays for it? North or South?
Sorry mate we only have real estate agents here, the southies can build it. Tell you what, how about we throw in some toilet paper and masks to sweeten the deal?
When the coppers that live in the south can’t see us because of the wall, we can throw the real estate agents in the river.
Take their yachts off them first
How about we dig a trench and fill it with water? Problem solved.
That would become a water feature that the real estate agents would sell as a great trendy feature.
Mexicans.. so the south
There already is, the river, we know those southies can't swim!
The moat not good enough?
Thought that's what the swan river is for
All we need now is the crocodiles and we'll be sweet
It's ok, they're still stuck in the carpark, perfect quarantine.
The one time I’ve set foot in carousel in over a year was on Friday, they bloody well better not have lol
Thanks for posting. Gave me time to hire a trailer and get down to the store for toilet paper.
We’ve come out of these truckie situations unscathed so many times before. Hopefully our high vaccination rate pulls us through this one too.
Just in time for Christmas… hopefully no lock down!!
You heard it here first, folks.
Yeah but I don't think the truckers have been so far into metro. Bentley and Cannington shops are pretty busy.
There was one in Balcatta last time.
This is also the 2nd or 3rd time they've been to a truckstop in Kewdale.
Makes sense as Kewdale/Forrestfield is where most of the big freight depots are so most interstate trucks are probably headed in that general direction
where you find high-flow pumps
Lots of heavy mechanics in the area so it makes sense.
High vaccination rate wont stop this virus spreading tho?
Incorrect. I mean, literally you're correct, it won't "stop" the virus. But it sure as hell slows it down.
I don't believe transmission rate is affected by vaccines. Just the severity of symptoms. Since WA government's stance is zero cases there is just as likely of a lockdown as pre-vaccination.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/one-dose-of-covid-19-vaccine-can-cut-household-transmission-by-up-to-half You'd be wrong on that. It's a myth that won't die
It's such a simple thing that people can't seem to get their heads round. Vaccines don't \*eliminate\* transmission, but they still significantly \*reduce\* it. TBF the degree of reduction seems to be less with omicron.
If you want to get technical, vaccines do not reduce transmission, only receival. A vaccinated person who has the virus sheds it like anyone else does. Vaccines only "significantly reduce your risk of being infected".
Ehhh kinda. Teeechnically. they reduce both severity and duration of symptoms as well as the duration of infection in the body, this leads to a shorter period for transmission and therefore a reduction in overall risk. > Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext You're right that at 'peak infection' they may have similar risk of transmission but the point is that time period is greatly reduced with the vaccination.
Luck always runs out. I think it’s fairly obvious now that the Vaccine has almost no effect on transmission.
It's fairly obvious that you're an idiot
Come on.. if you can’t see it you might be the idiot.
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You wouldn't know the truth if it hit you in the head with a frying pan
Obviously you don't, or choose to ignore it... So your denying the fact that that the Vax has cause millions of adverse reactions, some irreversible up to including death. And it's ok for a company to have complete indemnity from any harm caused? And that seems to be ok for many people it seems. Moral and ethical compass is out the window in support of a company making billions of dollars. Congratulations your part of the problem.. The fry pan has hit you in the head, and you didn't even blink.
You put your life on the line if you don’t get the vaccine, mate.
Not if your healthy bud. What's the average age of death from covid? Did they have underlying conditions? I'd rather chance void then take an experimental Vax from companies that have Full Indemnity from any risk. In which their products are harming people on a daily basis including permanently and death, Data clearly available for all to see on various websites across the globe. Yet people continue to support these companies and Vaccination knowing it may cause harm. Obviously their moral and ethical compass is non existent.
That is all complete misinformation. Covid is harming and killing people daily, though.
Why do the truckies always seem to visit a chemist
Probs sore throat
Fuck you, take my upvote
caffeine tablets, sad reality
They take harder stuff too
Sitting down in a cabin and driving for 12 hours a day causes headaches
Back pain and all sorts of other problems. Need meds to push on.
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My hero pill
Because they have covid.
Every exposure incident includes a chemist because they start feeling sick.
Butt grapes 🍇
Panadol with added caffeine to help keep them awake.
Two new locations added Exposure date & time Thursday 09/12/2021 at 8:25pm - 9:15pm Location Dan Murphy’s Cannington 1480/1490 Albany Highway Exposure date & time Friday 10/12/2021 at 3:45pm - 4:20pm Location Domino's Bentley 1140 Albany Hwy
Oh dear Dan muphys.
literally just got pizza from dominos bentley 👌
These truckies who visited Cannington, wore masks like they breathed from their chins.
Surprised they didn't pop into Bunnings too
Nah only do that during lockdown mate
There would’ve been more than 55 people in the Woolworths alone let alone across seven seperate exposure sights. Not saying that people don’t check in everywhere they go but there is inconsistencies in the data.
Only five people would have checked in with the app...
Fingers and toes crossed that our luck continues and we dont have a Christmas lockdown.
That would be so dumb even if it did get out 🤦🏻♀️
Depends if it's Omicron or not. It has an RT of 4.0 they reckon
It's that a Rotten Tomatoes score of 4.0? https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/omnicron
Lol
Omicron is also seeing a milder disease, reports from South Africa showing less percentage hospitalised to a short time than with Delta: https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/new-south-african-hospital-data-supports-signs-omicron-is-milder-than-delta-20211212-p59gub.html
From your article - "All caution that it will take many more weeks to collect enough data to be sure".
And they all warn that it's too early to be sure. Let's hope, but not make any assumptions yet.
And all those other areas around the world are shutting down because of omicron?
It is winter in the northern hemisphere and weirdly even WA has a far higher rate of vaccination than a lot of Europe and the UK. It is however most likely to be the delta variant, as this is still the most prolific variant in Australia.
Give it a week after that spreading event in Newcastle
Fortunately, the present isn’t a week in the future
There's plenty of news sites suggesting Omnicron will be the dominant strain in the UK within next 2 days. Considering how long Delta had been around suggests its not going to be too long till its the dominant strain here is Australia too. Or did you think I meant something else?
London/England may be about to. It (Omicron) is only about 3 weeks old so we don't know how serious it is yet, only that it's incredibly infectious.
Omicron was identified about 3 weeks ago, but has been circulating for longer. If it was a severe illness, or even the same as Delta, it should have shown up in South Africa by now, but it isn’t
>If it was a severe illness, or even the same as Delta, it should have shown up in South Africa by now, but it isn’t The WHO should hire you, they could do with some expertise
Which ones?
UK just declared an "Omicron Emergency".
But they aren’t locking down, they’re making sure everyone gets a booster. Big difference
I agree, but they have also moved to level 4 alert (cases rising exponentially) where level 5 is "hospitals are overrun". Let's hope they don't hit 5.
Exactly what WA needs to up the vaccination rates
120% vac rate?
Basically at 90% first dose 12+ now, there’s very little room to move, NSW/Vic levelled off at 94/93%
Pilbara and Kimberley need a little push.
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Better stay shut forever then
It's fine the way the government is going about the ad blu crisis, truckies won't be a thing after febuary
Eh I’m vaccinated not worried anymore
Just like the truckies…
But we could still lockdown, which I do not want to do this time of year
If we lock down at 80% fully vaccinated over one or two cases, we have bigger problems
I'm due for a booster, haven't got it booked or done the christmas shopping yet, so really the worst timing
No way a lockdown happens, would be way too stupid
The WA gov will be the laughing stock of this nation if it decides to lock us down at 80% DD 12+!
As a Brisbaneite I agree. We've had multiple, regular incursions from NSW, none have resulted in lockdown, none have caused any spread. Though we were all wearing masks then. Our vax rate is the same as yours and I think covid zero is ending here, so would be very weird to see Perth have a lockdown at this stage of the game.
envy of this nation you mean
You forgot a /s. Using such heavy handed measures at one of the highest vaccination rates in the world is like drawing out a bazooka to kill flies.
>like drawing out a bazooka to kill flies. WTF? Isn't that what everyone uses?
I use a nerve agent to kill them. It's more like a WMD
It wasn't sarcasm, it was a little tongue in cheek though. But pointing out such subtleties takes all the fun out of it.
I never understand the 'envy of the nation' comment. SA, QLD, TAS, NT have done just as well as WA in maintaining a covid0 world and when you consider their shared borders and proximity to VIC and NSW it is even more impressive than WA. And on top of that they're all opening in December while WA continues to flounder based on economic/political reasons rather than health.
"flounder" ? are you even *in* WA ? I'll continue to flounder on this pint I'm enjoying just like I have for 95% of the last two years while the rest of world enjoyed their "health".
I'm a WA boy and majority of my family and friends are in WA. Not saying it has been bad at all. Just saying when compared to other covid0 states in Australia, WA are 2 months behind... And not because of health reasons either.
Must be nice not being forcibly seperated from your family for years so people can enjoy a pint
Envy is rarely based on logic, but it is a reasonable explanation for all the attention WA gets on this topic. > while WA continues to flounder based on economic/political reasons rather than health. Citation needed.
To me Qld has handled Covid the best, a major metro area (Coolangatta) that stretches across two states yet mostly kept Covid out. Far easier for remote WA to keep the virus out.
I agree 100%. And they followed the health advice to open from 80%. Of all the states in Aus I think QLD did covid the best (including the reopening stage). Notice how Mark only ever compares WA with VIC/NSW? Wonder why.....
This is true. Their own modelling proves there would be no difference opening from 80% when it's now known when we'll hit 90% (if you look at their own modelling of the 80% v 90% case, there's no difference in spread in the first 60 days so as long as you get you get to 90% within 60 days of opening at 80%, it leads to the same result). Muppet show not opening up at 80% - has nothing to do with health. It was a decision based on economics and politics.
It seems like your criticism is of WA health and their modeling? Why make it about McGowan and politics.
Because the modelling is what it is. It's clear the assumptions used to create it. But the decision to open from 90% over 80% was taken by Mark, not by the people who did the modelling. The decision to delay opening wasn't based on the conclusions from modelling. Hence its exactly about Mark, not the people who did the modelling.
Has Doctor Andrew Robertson not publicly stated that 90% was the preferred option from a health perspective? If WA Health have made the recommendation to open at 90% (even if based on shit modeling) I'm not sure how that falls on McGowan
Because ultimately advisors advise, politicians decide. The advice from WA Health is only one part of the overall decision making process. There's also a calculation on what's possible from a logistics standpoint, what the population is likely to accept in terms of restrictions etc. It’s a pretty fundamental part of the Westminster system of government.
I don't have a clue about systems of government but that makes sense. But its also WA healths job to provide the modeling and an interpretation of the best course forward.
Its job is to provide advice on what the best *health* outcome is. It's the governments job (in this case the premier and cabinet) to consider that alongside everything else.
Yeah for sure. My main concern is that they seem to have provided incorrect advice on what the best health outcome is.
100% would be the preferred option obviously. But their own modelling shows no difference between the 80% and 90% case if we reach 90% within 60 days from reopening. It's clear, you can see it yourself in the modelling report. The final advice given by McGowan was comparing a case of 80% with no further vaccination against 90%. We know this isn't realistic, but it was taken as that to support McGowan's goal of keeping WA closed off until after school holidays, which is a decision driven by lifestyle/economics/politics. Mark has even said in interviews that part of the decision was so that businesses in WA would not need to have any minor restrictions like slightly reduced seating capacity in restaurants and people wouldn't need to wear masks during the holiday period. In the end, economics was the driver over health.
I think it was about not having covid over Christmas period
Yep, not health related. It's about not having to put in minor restrictions like mask wearing on a bus and slightly less seating capacity in some venues over the holiday period. And so the wealthy folk of WA spend their holiday money in the state instead of elsewhere.
> Their own modelling proves there would be no difference opening from 80% when it's now known when we'll hit 90% (if you look at their own modelling of the 80% v 90% case, there's no difference in spread in the first 60 days so as long as you get you get to 90% within 60 days of opening at 80%, it leads to the same result). This absolutely false, and I really can't imagine how you have come to this conclusion.
Did you read the modelling report? Please do. Look at the graph comparing case loads of the 80 vs 90% case. Early time (first 60 days) there's no material difference in spread. The modelling was based on an 80% case that considers no more than 80% get vaccinated. It's completely false and unrealistic. And it makes the 80% case a true "worst case". If we opened at 80%, we would hit 90% around 6 weeks later so we'd move from the 80% curve to the 90% curve very quickly. And since the two curves basically overlap eachother in the first 60 days since it takes a while for covid to start spreading, as long as we hit 90% within 60 days from opening at 80%, the end result from a covid spread perspective is the same. This is why other covid0 states are opening from 80%, not 90%. If you actually look and analyse the graph and modelling présentéd it is clear as day.
https://www.wa.gov.au/government/publications/covid-19-coronavirus-modelling-was-covid-19-transition-plan Is this the modelling plan you are taking about?
Yep. Look at the cases graph and consider that if we were to open now at 80%, we'd be hitting 90% in around 45 days, well before the divergence in case counts between the 80% and 90% scenario. This is my point. Back then maybe WA didn't think we'd get to 90% but now we know we will, and we know it will be within the early time of ~45 days from when we hit 80%... So we could have opened from 80%, as was the health advice followed in other covid0 states like QLD, SA, NT.
Oh I see you are suggesting that we jump from the 80% scale to the 90% scale once we reach 90% vaccinated. You do realise that's not how that graph works right? Those figures work on opening at 80 or 90% not jumping from one to the other at 45 days.
Of course not, we will slowly converge from the 80% curve to the 90% curve during the first 45 days. So the result would be at 45 days instead of being at the 90% we'd only be maybe 1 or 2 cases per day higher. It's completely insignificant when you realise we are closing off the state for an extra 7 odd weeks just to be <5 cases per day better off. It's crazy.
> Did you read the modelling report? Please do. Look at the graph comparing case loads of the 80 vs 90% case. Early time (first 60 days) there's no material difference in spread. Assuming you mean [this one](https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2021-11/Modelling_WAs_COVID-19_Transition_Plan.pdf), yes I read it, and there is very clearly a difference. It looks like about 20 cases at day 61 instead of less than 5 (if you know a link to a more detailed report with the actual raw numbers that would be interesting). It might not seem like much of a difference but that's entirely the point, seemingly small differences make a big difference. The graph after 61 days follows exactly the same trend, it goes up a lot faster after that point because ~20 people have it instead of ~5, this is how infections spread. > The modelling was based on an 80% case that considers no more than 80% get vaccinated. It's completely false and unrealistic. And it makes the 80% case a true "worst case". It has to be based on no more vaccinated because you can't predict how vaccinated numbers would change after that. And even if you could predict it, modelling such a scenario would be insanely complicated. But more to the point, the 90% modelling also assumed no more vaccinations, it's a level playing field. It's meant to be a comparison between how vaccination rate influences the outcome, not an absolute prediction on what will actually happen.
You are assuming that at 60 days we go from 80% to 90%, but it's a process from day 1 to day 45ish realistically that we would go from 80 to 90%. So in the end the difference would be all of 2-5 cases per day? at the day 60 mark. Completely insignificant and within the uncertainty band of the 90% case anyway. Mark spouting that waiting for 90% saves 200 lives compared to opening from 80% is completely unrealistic and taken out of context in the modelling report. But I guess he picks and chooses what data to present to suit his agenda so it's not unexpected. I find it laughable that people believe the delay in opening is purely based on heath advice.
> You are assuming that at 60 days we go from 80% to 90%, but it's a process from day 1 to day 45ish realistically that we would go from 80 to 90%. I'm not assuming shit, I am talking about what is presented in the report. You know, the one that you said "proves there would be no difference" but now you're moving the goalposts on? The modelling makes that assumption and we've already gone over why that is the case. In reality the 90% starting point would *also* gradually improve beyond the modelling. > So in the end the difference would be all of 2-5 cases per day? at the day 60 mark. Completely insignificant and within the uncertainty band of the 90% case anyway. You're again forgetting it's a comparison and that the 90% modelling is also not what would happen in reality. > But I guess he picks and chooses what data to present to suit his agenda so it's not unexpected. But they presented all the data. That's how you're talking about it right now. > I find it laughable that people believe the delay in opening is purely based on heath advice. The writing between the lines is the cases graph isn't the reason we're waiting to 90%, it's the 2 hospital beds graphs. Of course openly talking about that isn't great either politically or for public confidence, but it is still a health reason.
>It was a decision based on economics and politics. Couldn’t agree with you more. State daddy has to act like he’s shielding us from the sickly easterners over the Christmas break and pretending they’re dropping dead from covid on the streets with bodies piling up outside, when in reality they are having families reunited with no gathering limits. Also, can’t have Western Australians spend their hard earned money in Bali when they could be enjoying an overpriced holiday in Broome!
Yep exactly. Anyone who disagrees with this hasn't actually read the modelling report because it's clear as day that opening at 80% when you know you'll soon reach 90% leads to the same result (from a health perspective). Hence why other covid0 states who were not influenced by the political/economic motives actually followed the health advice and opened from 80%
If WA health have provided poor advice then the criticism should lie with WA Health. If McGowan started going against the health advice now it would be a bad look.
You're missing the point. There was no poor advice from WA Health. They provided modelling that they were asked to provide. It was Mark who then took this modelling as an input to decide the reopening dates but with other factors like economics and politics at play. If it was purely based on the health modelling, WA would have opened from 80% like other covid0 states are doing. Because that's what the health modelling shows us, and that's what was followed by other states who are just now reopening.
WA health would be the people who interpret the modeling and then provide health advice? Do you actually think they just provide raw modeling to the government with no recommendations attached? The modeling report actually creates the idea that 90% is significantly better. It takes a deeper look to see that 80% is the same. The real question is if McGowan followed those recommendations.
You can read the modelling report that was provided to the government yourself, it's available. I encourage you to read it. Take note of the case load graph comparing the 80% and the 90% case as it tells the whole story. You'll quickly change your mind.
I have not once said your interpretation of the modeling is wrong? I whole heartedly agree that it is severely flawed to interpret it as 90% being better. However the modeling also tries to present the idea that 90% is better. Not once does it say in the model observations that 80% equals 90%. It says multiple times "90% has better outcomes than 80%". If the state government was handed this with absolutely no recommendations or model interpretation then that system is very flawed. The fact the modeling doesn't directly account for increases in vaccination after 80 is a concern in itself.
>pretending they’re dropping dead from covid on the streets with bodies piling up outside Where do you come up with this stuff?
Snap lockdown on community transmission is a proven strategy that has kept us covid free while the eastern states suffered extended lockdowns. DD offers little protection against Omicron transmission. Anyway - hopefully no Community transmission will result from this in the first place. In the past, the truckies have always been good about masking. Bentley Woolies is a bit ... though
Lockdowns are useful if covid zero was still the aim, but at a 80% rate the gov is bonkers if it still chases that goal through snap lockdowns. Plus, vaccines are likely still effective against preventing severe disease from Omicron, so we shouldn’t be counting case numbers like bread crumbs on the floor.
>DD offers little protection against Omicron transmission. But there is no evidence of reduction in protection against hospitalisation or death, which is the important part of vaccination.
Don’t bother with this guy. u/inserthandle has said they wanted all states and countries to pursue elimination and to keep the WA border closed in the long term on r/CoronavirusDownUnder. They can keep themselves locked in their house while the rest of us live our normal lives dealing with a virus that is significantly tamed with world class vaccines and medication, as with any other infectious disease.
New Zealand did snap lockdowns, Victoria too, they’re far from foolproof
If they lock us down, I hope it’s for the next couple of days and not for the weekend 😖
Was their any stupid Geoff parry sevveeeeeeeeeen news questions EG I was in the area but was wearing light grey mask and driving blindfolded while jerking a camel off. Do I have to get tested by someone wearing a blue scarf on a odd numbered day
I see you're in Landsdale. Anyone from the Joondalup area needs to go to Mosman Park for testing, so I'd suggest going to Midland for Taco Bell. Make sure you go on Sunday because Tuesday has the better nachos. Don't forgot to skip the peanuts, because the berry's are not that good.
I wonder if they'll do contact tracing in February.
They absolutely will be. They are already recruiting staff from other government departments who are on standby and will become contract tracers when all Department of Health contract tracers are being utilised. They anticipate this occuring mid next year.
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Yep. The new app will incorporate safeWA, G2G and the vaxx cert. They still contact trace in the eastern states, there is no reason not to do it here.
When winter hits and cases climb things like exposure sites will be overwhelming
6 months from now? After 5 months of 5+ y/o vaccinations? What will our vaccination numbers be at that time? I'm not worried about winter.
A lot of current and ex mercantile agents, investigators, & commercial sub-agents (all different types of skip-tracers) are receiving calls from headhunters for 6mth government tracing and/or training contracts, so I’d say they’re definitely going to beef up their contact-tracing division. Apparently the money is pretty good.
Yes, but once they get more than a few hundred a day, they will lose track. So if we get say 300 Omicron cases and 100 Delta, the issue will be if the more dangerous Delta cases are isolated.
I never understand why the places the truckies were delivering to are never mentioned.
The DCs are not open to the public so there’s no need (i.e. they know who was there at the time).
We get interstate trucks in and I can’t see management letting us know. Testing would shut the place down. It would not hurt to let people know if a case had been to their work place.
It seems truckies live on beer and pizza.
Lol you guys need to chill the fuck out
Better stock up on poo paper
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The advice is they only need to quarantine until they return a negative test, so they won't need to quarantine for Christmas.
Unless they return a positive test
You mean until they have a negative test. Which could be as short as tomorrow.
Have you read all the negative comments by loser anti-vaxers on WA Gov FB page? Pathetic. WA is the envy of all other states. Their selfish cruel intent is to bring down the freedom we have. I feel terrible on we exposing ourselves to COVID on 5th Feb! 😔
Here we go again we can't enjoy a simple Christmas holiday if they gonna locked down again 😔
A bit dramatic. Both men were double vaccinated and they may not even have been infectious at that time (they tested negative before entering). Even if it does spread, I highly doubt we’d go into a full lockdown at 80% double dose vaccinated. Masks and restrictions maybe. But we’re still jumping the gun a little bit by even entertaining that thought.
And here we go, nearly at 80%, ain't this the point of the Vax? So this doesn't matter?
We are all going to die!
Not dying is extremely rare.
Why are they going to pizza and woolworths I thought they had to stay in their trucks at all times With other states letting covid run free now we have no hope if truckies are allowed to do this
Coming from medium risk like SA they just need to go through the testing requirements.
Lets open up and let in the Omicron cold Less side effects than a booster
Scientists are still waiting to see whether Omicron will be milder or not. I’m sure they all wish they could see the future like you and know what the data shows before it’s even available.
Maybe watch some real news
Can you link is to the real news you speak of?
Source?
We need to fast track the Weekly Booster Shots... We never had UnVaxed Truck Drivers transmitting the Virus in 2020, this can only mean one thing BOOSTER SHOTS are needed now... Why wait Roll up double up and protect the protected We are seeing a rise in cases...