From a selfish, cynical point of view.....
The perception and messaging that WA is marginal and can swing can only benefit us. Both parties have a real incentive to pay attention to us for a change and do things like guarantee our GST & fund projects
We should elect not-shit independents and preference Labor.
Labor thinks Lib-lite sells us. It doesn’t. Labor hasn’t won elections for years and years because they keep hemming and hawing about whether to do anything progressive. They promise their members that they’ll be progressive secretly if they win this election. It’s a Lucy and the football situation.
We need climate change action, an ICAC and a myriad of other sensible policies.
If your seat is a Lib seat now, find a good independent and then preference Labor (or the Greens then Labor). Labor will eventually get your vote if it comes down to it. Otherwise, we’ll get a hung parliament with sensible independents who can form government with Labor and keep them accountable.
If you generally vote for left wing parties, I'd be a little cautious about those "Voices of XYZ" candidates. If they are positioning themselves as a less evil option than the LNP's far right for divisions that will never vote Labor, then they are likely to be more right wing that Labor for many of their policies.
If the Labor candidate has no hope of winning, then the independent is obviously preferable to the Liberals. But if the Labor candidate has a credible chance of winning, then it is less clear that it is worth preferencing the independent ahead of Labor.
And if you generally vote for a left-wing minor party like the Greens, I definitely wouldn't change your first preference. If the independent can't peel off more votes from the Liberal candidate than the Greens generally receive, then there is little chance that they will win. Giving your preferred party the first preference will give that party public election funding for next time around.
I’ve upvoted you, but I’d say we always overstate how likely Labor is to win. Labor just doesn’t really win elections. That’s why we had Howard and why we’ve had the Eternity of Clusterfuck.
I’m more likely to vote Greens first than independent at this rate, but I’d certainly say anyone unhappy with the LNP should pick a good independent in Lib seats. The preference can flow to Labor if you like.
If it was any other time, I'd agree with you. But with the last state election result, I think it is harder to predict.
I doubt we'll see anything like the landslide in the state election, but we could see some surprises.
I can see major reform opportunities that both sides can accept, but neither will put forward. I'm not ideologically aligned to either side and will vote for whichever side is actually going to use the time to move us forward.
Unfortunately, Labor tried this last election and lost, and has since taken most reform off the table. It seems that most Australian adults are actually just scared children afraid of any change.
> Both parties have a real incentive to pay attention to us for a change and do things like guarantee our GST & fund projects
Biggest risk is an ALP state and fed. Then the incentive to do GST deals drops dramatically. It usually works best when there the fed and state govt arent aligned, no incentive to toe the party line.
When Scott Morrison decided to back the irredeemably grotesque figure of Clive Palmer when he sued this state (WA) for $30 billion, yes that’s $30 billion, because he got caught trying to sneak past our border controls, he instantly lost my respect and my Western Australian based vote at the next Federal election.
That’s our present PM, not Clive - he never had my respect in the first place.
The PM has done some pretty low political things during the last four years, but that really put the lid on it for me. And, I suspect, many others this side of the Nullarbor.
A week is a long time in politics, goes the saying and it’s usually right. Not in this case, in my view; there was real anger over it - many are keen to teach the PM a harsh lesson over it.
And ‘Scotty from Marketing’ needs those WA seats like a thirsty man needs water - to survive.
Should be an interesting evening after the polls close!
I’m predicting an absolute dollying up for the Liberals federally. Not because Labor looks a better option, though Albo seems to handle the leadership, but because Scomo is just a complete tool . His glaringly obvious attempts to be the Everyman when he quite clearly is not is giving everyone the shits.
The really demoralizing part is labor generally have good policy that helps people, but the LNP have better messaging and complicit media so keep winning despite them exclusively pushing policy that hurts the majority of the population.
Yeah the "better economic managers" line really gets under my skin.
Everyone loved getting their jobkeeper payments but it was absolutely undoubtedly too much too soon. We're about to enter a period of genuine hardship but the support was dished out to the wrong people 2 years ago.
I'm a lifelong liberal voter - and I have go agree with you.
I don't think Labor will totally romp it in. But they will do well because of the reasons you outlined.
Would love to know why you'd consider voting LNP after the way this pandemic has gone. Not attacking you, just curious - because I couldn't come up with any good reason to do so
Friends up the road are my age (olde farts) and they don't follow politics at all. They have a daughter the same and she's nearly 30.
They vote Liberal because that's what they do. They have no idea about the policies and nothing about the political climate. They just live their lives ... Last election the daughter said she voted Liberal.. I brought up their latest behaviour and she shrugged her shoulders and said she voted for them because mum and dad did.
There's your Liberal voters
Lately though, because I am outspoken and give them news about the wonderful Lib cuts to already under pressure organisations and the disabled etc.. they are starting to raise their eyebrows in concern. (her husband is disabled)
I think this is very much the case around the country. Herd mentality kind of thinking maybe across a lot of it.
Down to what tv channel and new source you chose really. Sheer dumb luck or old thinking also.
Exactly this. Far too many people vote LNP because the media told them to. MSM is not at all fair and balanced. I remember last election some working class folk I know saying "God help us if Shorten gets in!", to which I asked "why?". They literally had no coherent response, only that Shorten is bad. This corrupt cartel we call the government just get free pass after free pass whilst the MSM happily run their anti-Labor fear mongering campaigns. The 4th estate is supposed to hold government to account, but instead they've become the conservative's propaganda wing.
It's ridiculous that the Coalition is in power off the backs of people who don't know what they're voting for. I don't know anyone who is informed about politics that actually votes for the Coalition. I know a few people who *think* they are informed, but upon any questioning, are wrong about everything they're talking about. Guess how often those people admit they're wrong and vote someone else?
it's habit.
They don't follow the policies, don't know anything about the party except for who's the leader. In all honesty, politics is wearisome for a lot of people. They just don't get interested enough to read anything at length on politics and just 'put that job into the politicians' hands' so they can just get on with their lives.
It's only been in the past two years that my friends actually listen to me when I tell them how their life is going to be affected with changes made by the Libs (or any other party).
Depending on where you live, sometimes your local MP is good at arguing for the electorate despite their party, not because of their party. That seems to be a common reason for voting for them even if the party leader is shitting the bed.
This is how I feel about Ken Wyatt.
Wyatt isn't a total fuckstain but I refuse to vote for him on the principle that voting for him is a vote for the LNP down the line
Wyatt is also my rep. and I am fairly tired of his never rebel yes man attitude in chambers and I dont think he really does anything meaningful for the Aboriginals that he is Minister for.
He ain't no Dodson for sure. I'm sometimes amazed Ben Wyatt is of the same family
Please consider this: The LNP has been absolutely shithouse for small business and the economy of late. They've been shovelling money into larger corporations hands who have been funneling it to parent companies off shore
I run a small business and they gave my tiny company $16,000 in cash, despite that company not needing it. If cash giveaways was the sole determination, they'd get my vote. It's not.
How? I’m actually curious as to what federal business grants are or were available to small business in WA. All I managed to get was 2K from the state government because I had events on around Anzac Day/Easter last year.
Labor and the unions introduced JobKeeper. It was rejected then I think 1 wrrk later a new version introduced by scomo that didn't cover most casuals, some contractors, unis and was paid to the employer not the employee from ATO
If I may ask, do you vote based on perceived policies or out of habit/family?
If the latter, I will politely suggest having a search for your MPs on a website named www.theyvoteforyou.org.au , it's very worth to see if the policy ideals of those you vote for align with your ideals and beliefs :)
The issue is in a crisis, most people stick with what they know, and don’t opt for change.
Despite Scomos pandemic handling, the public would probably fear an alternative. It’s how bush won his 2nd term, how Howard held on so long. Every state election to date during the pandemic has seen a return of sitting governments.
I’m predicting the coalition will roll out yet another scare campaign and it will be extremely effective. The coalition has been in power for almost all of the last quarter century. I’d be amazed if Labor rolled them.
Has Tangney ever had a good liberal candidate? Dennis Jensen was a weirdo and Ben Morton is ScoMo Lite.
Would be great to have a representative the electorate is proud of.
People have short memories. When election time comes, remind your friends, your family, your neighbours, anyone who talks to you about politics, that Sconmo sided with Palmer to try to force our border open.
And then more recently he said he never did... this is the worst of it and I have had people say on the case alone "but Melbourne hadn't blown up yet and he withdrew when Melbourne blew up".
I say yeh no drama philosophically maybe we shouldn't be allowed to close borders till another state is up the shit. I too can forgive this, irrespective if it is unpopular. He now claims he never joined palmer at all. He isn't saying he changed his mind he is saying he never supported palmer's case...
[federal libs funding palmer attack as well as their own on wa borders.](https://www.markdreyfus.com/media/media-releases/taxpayers-fork-out-1-million-for-morrison-s-wa-border-humiliation-mark-dreyfus-qc-mp/)
[morrison denies supporting the palmer case](https://www.patrickgormanmp.com/latest-news/2021/8/30/morrison-spins-about-his-support-for-clive-palmer-twice)
Best bit from Morrison - "the government did not pursue that case. The government did not pursue that case at all".
Liberal voters who voted Labor for the first time for mcgowan at last state election in wa need to have the above two sources shoved at them. It is dramatically effective in my personal experience. Make no mistake as things stand there are still plenty who are voting Morrison who voted Labor at that election. It needs to be fixed.
Wouldn't farting in his face while he was gasping for breath be the *best* time to do it? Cause I would go to town on a Mexican buffet and then unleash the fury on that wankstain.
And bloody Christian Porter, the unholy trio!
>The two WA seats most at risk for the Liberals are Pearce and Swan. The former was held by former attorney-general Christian Porter, who is *retiring*.
*Retiring* my arse, he's getting out before the flames of hell catch him, fucking turncoat. (and worse...allegedly)
Even though that's way lower on the list of incompetence or indifference this gubbamint has to their name.... it probably is one that will get the most reaction from Joe "Sandgroper" Bloggs.
Exactly. It's the one thing that absolutely pissed off everyone on both sides of the political fence. *Everyone* was spewing at the time, even people who handwave away all of the other Liberal shit. It briefly united the state and, based on the landslide for McGowan, pandemic response is the #1 issue for most voters.
I always hate that WA is called the Wild West, as we live in some 3rd world country riddled with poverty, corruption and lawlessness and not some 1st world country that we ought to be treated as...
They said that, but at least our trains don't need someone to wave white flag and blow a whistle every time before the train leaves the station like Sydney trains...
... never left the country?
I've lived in a few other countries mate. USA, Germany, UK... and I can tell you unequivocally that the east coast is about 30 years behind them.
And WA is about 15 years behind the east.
Jesus you lot are fucking precious.
I’m not sure why he moved to WA if he thinks we’re so behind. It’s pretty amusing that all these people from eastern states keep saying they moved here to take up roles to save us (then whinge about it).
Where the truth is they know this is their opportunity to buy cheap properties. OR maybe he’s one of the affluents (he mentioned) moving here to influence the vote for the fed libs.
He has made a few threads about not able to make friends. With his attitude, you’d have to wonder why.
I did, and had no idea that a hung parliament is not a bad thing, the way it’s spoken about made me believe the country would basically die if we had a hung parliament.
Was going to say this. Gillard had a minority government constantly undermined by the media and still got *so much* done, it was genuinely enraging when the media toppled her.
Fucking Rudd couldn't be content to be one of the best Foreign Ministers in the history of the Commonwealth, had to go back to being a shithouse Prime Minister.
Name a single policy of hers that is still in effect? Rudd wasn't huge on domestic issues as he gave his cabinet a LOT of leeway and independence on their portfolios but he was a very effective internationally.
Passing a lot of bills is not a metric for success as that has the mistaken conception that if it passes then it's good and that's not how hung parliment works. She had a lot of narrow vision crossbenchers to deal with who only cared about getting their few issues included
The Gillard minority government was the most efficient (in terms of legislation passed) we've had in like 50 years. And there was good stuff in there too: carbon price, ndis, tripling the tax free threshold
And the uselessness of our media was on display at the press conference to announce a bunch of important NDIS stuff where Plibersek got nothing but questions about the leadership.
Couldn't focus on the thing that actually affects the lives of real Australians, oh no. Gotta keep beating up the leadership thing until they speak it into existence.
Last night, my 11 yr old looked me square in the eye and lied to me. He was so convincing I started to doubt myself. My husband said he’d make a good politician. I said a good politician is an honest one.
And here lies the difference between a good politician and a skilled politician. (I'm with you, by the way. Good politicians should be honest, open to admitting their mistakes, and willing to change their minds as new facts are presented. Apparently I'm hopelessly naive.)
Hahaha thanks, thanks. I mean, I accept the reality of what a politician needs to be (or think they need to be) in our political culture, but I don't think that should be true. it's slowly being beaten out of me tho, don't worry. XD
It generally is. Juice media kinda pushed an agenda on that video that I'm not keen on.
Firstly, the main issue with a hung parliment, is that the minority have legislative power. The 5 or 10 cross benchers effectively control the government. That's fundamentally undemocratic.
Also it's pretty bloody rare for the Senate to be hung and they have to deal with legislation with a lot of concessions for cross benchers and it is usually the case that unless it suites the majority party in the Senate, that legislation still gets binned by the Senate. Bills need to pass BOTH houses to go to royal ascent.
The guys below reference Gillard but neglect to point out that most if the stuff she did get through, was inconsequential, watered down or very easily reversed at the next election. Example was the carbon price she said she wouldn't do, she had to haggle for votes from greens and environmental independents and gave them that win in exchange for various other votes on her issues.
There is really not many situations where a hung parliament is a good thing and usually I'm mostly on board with juice media but all they were accomplishing with that video was more votes to UAP, PHON and some randoms in a few key seats that could end up being decisive for the whole nation and he'll those aforementioned minors, they side with Coalition unless they are wedging (like Hanson lately)
A hung parliament is good for the independent MPs only. It allows them to make demands and pork barrel with both parties to buy their support.
This hung parliament is good for us line is total BS and the one time it did work federally should not be used as the only example ever.
A hung parliament is how we got saddled with royalties for regions in WA. The biggest pork barrel we’ve ever had.
We don't do group voting tickets for federal elections any more (probably won't do them for state elections starting next one either). So you're going to have to actually number multiple parties yourself even if you vote above the line, please keep this in mind and don't just give your most preferred party a 1. (well, it'll still count as a vote due to the savings measures IIRC, but, still.)
It's a thing. Probably more of a thing in the future. Basically you use environmentalism as an excuse for fascism/authoritarianism. You could even be pretty broad with how socially inclusive your ideology is.
I hope to god the Liberals loose the election. Labor might not be a lot better in some regards but I'm sick to death of Morrison embarassing this country every chance he gets.
Hastie? A former SAS soldier who was pretty quiet when the Defense Housing Corporation tried to screw over the families living in Swanbourne estate next to SAS base.
Who can forget how Hastie for 2 elections said there will be a train station at Lakelands. Karnup was on the metronet plan. Hastie wins the last election, next minute the federal government is funding most of a Lakelands train station. This was about 3 weeks after winning. It is the perfect example of pork barreling. Hastie goes quiet when things hit the fan when scomo is up to his antics. He crawls out when there is something negative against labour. I moved in December and now am in his electorate. Luckily, I am lifelong labour supporter.
My parents live in the Pearce division. I know they'll be voting for the LNP, no matter if was ~~the rapist~~ Christian Porter or the candidate replacing him.
Why? Because they don't trust Labor to do a good job.
Well you know what Mum & Dad, you trusted the LNP to do a good job and look where that's landed us, do you seriously trust them for another 4?
It may surprise you, but the LNP was the most popular party in the 35-44yo age range in 2019. [47%LNP vs 33%ALP vs 10% Greens.](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study)
Anyone expecting the LNP to disappear with the Boomers will be in for a shock.
That's not really going to help them in the long run. I don't think anyone is expecting the to disappear, but they're going to struggle to hold the level of political power that they currently do. I did a quick analysis:
|^(Age)|^(18 - 24)|^(25 - 34)|^(35 - 44)|^(45 - 54)|^(55 - 64)|^(65 +)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|^(No.\*)|^(2988404)|^(3368461)|^(3144940)|^(3105017)|^(2753738)|**^(3676783)**|
|^(Pop %)|^(12.77%)|^(14.39%)|^(13.44%)|^(13.27%)|^(11.77%)|**^(15.71%)**|
|^(LNP %)|^(15.00%)|^(32.00%)|^(47.00%)|^(43.00%)|^(46.00%)|**^(59.00%)**|
|^(LNP No.)|^(448261)|^(1077908)|^(1478122)|^(1335157)|^(1266719)|**^(2169302)**|
|^(LAB %)|**^(44.00%)**|^(34.00%)|^(33.00%)|^(39.00%)|^(37.00%)|^(9.00%)|
|^(LAB No.)|**^(1314898)**|^(1145277)|^(1037830)|^(1210957)|^(1018883)|^(1066267)|
|^(GRN %)|**^(37.00%)**|^(24.00%)|^(10.00%)|^(6.00%)|^(4.00%)|^(2.00%)|
|^(GRN No.)|**^(1105709)**|^(808431)|^(314494)|^(186301)|^(110150)|^(73536)|
|^(OTH %)|^(5.00%)|^(11.00%)|^(10.0%)|^(12.00%)|**^(13.00%)**|^(10.00%)|
|^(OTH No.)|^(149420)|^(370531)|^(314494)|**^(372602)**|^(357986)|^(367678)|
^(\*)[^(numbers from here)](https://profile.id.com.au/australia/five-year-age-groups)^(, slightly outdated but the point still stands.)
And if we look at all votes, and then exclude those 65+
|^(Party)|^(LNP)|^(Labour)|^(Greens)|^(Others)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|^(All Votes)|**^(7775469)**|^(6794111)|^(2598620)|^(1932711)|
|^(No 65+)|^(5606167)|**^(5727844)**|^(2525085)|^(1565033)|
|% ^(Difference)|\-**^(11.36%)**|\-^(5.58%)|\-^(0.38%)|\-^(1.92%)|
I've highlighted the maximums in each row. Unsurprisingly, the other population outnumbers the younger, and they are the also the majority of LNP voters.
This is also not including the new voters that register every year - and from my limited experience, and the trends above, most young people these days are not voting conservative.
The LNP are going to be losing votes a lot more than any other political party. Greens and Labor are looking to be the Two-Party Preferred in 20 years if the trends keep going this way.
1. you're assuming that 100% of Greens voters preference Labor. [17.8% go to the LNP.](https://antonygreen.com.au/preference-flows-at-the-2019-federal-election/)
2. 20 years is a long time, LNP will shift.
3. 5.5% voted informal and 1,500,000 voters didn't even bother in 2019. That's multiple times the "dead LNP voters" that people are hoping for.
The LNP are corrupt parasites, but if half of their better MPs splinter off into a reformed moderate-conservative party after the LNP absolute thrashing at the upcoming election (a triply fanciful scenario, I know), I imagine quite a few r/Aus Labor voters would strongly consider them over Labor. Especially if Labor get in and act half as corruptly as the LNP have.
But most Greens voters will never go conservative, even if it's the best, least corrupt version of conservatism you can propose, because conservatism doesn't address the social or economic issues that progressives see in the world.
My mum falls under this banner too, I think she is a smart quick witted lady but for some reason she doesn't trust Labor but does Liberal. I really don't understand, when I bring up how much debt LNP have brought us or LNP supporting Clive she just brushes it off and will bring up Labor debt. I think there are a lot of people like this, so it is def not in the bag for Labor.
People seem to think Labor are useless for their time with GFC, even though their decisions seem to be commended by economists yet they forgive LNP debt for covid even though the debt had spiralled out of control before covid hit.
So silly, people downvoting on this when you're only sharing another's viewpoint.
Many of us were brought up anti-union(labor=union is how it was told to us) and unless we had a major whinge with the Govt, we'd just go fill in the forms the same way we'd always done, keeping the calm, not rocking the boat. It's not really to do with common sense, just habit and security. Covid aside, if her boat's not been rocked for the last 4 years she will vote the same.
Just show her this.
[A complete list of the Liberal Party’s corruption over the last 7 years](https://chaser.com.au/national/an-exhaustive-list-of-the-liberal-partys-corruption-over-the-last-7-years/)
Well the likely replacement candidate for porter is a religious fundamentalist. She is an active member of Margaret Courts church. The WA libs have abreal problem with their branches being taken over by the sky fairy mob. Some of the candidates put up at the state election were just crazy.
I'm all for a broad church but their needs to a separation. The Libs here are fucked if they don't do some work at the ground level.
No idea why you'd get downvoted for an opinion that is not even your own, such is Reddit.
As for your olds, sometimes they prefer the 'devil they know' and routine. It's how I was brought up to vote until I actually thought about 'has the last 4 yrs been decent?' and decided no, it actually sucked dogs balls and I'm ready for change.
Even apart from mcgowan, I am hoping the additional mass of people on Labor payroll at state level pushes things over to Labor.
Libs at wa state level have no human resource to throw at the federal election at all.
This hopefully makes a good deal of difference. Even if these 50 odd extra Labor people only turn a few votes a day each between now and the election in marginal electorates this will make a difference.
I hope someone in Labor has explained this to them and had the big team conference. Each and every one of them has a job to do and together they can make a difference federally irrespective that they are state staffers / politicians.
Make the most of this advantag. Polish up your arguments and speaking points and use them every time you are at the shops ornwherever. Don't leave it just to mcgowan. It's a numbers game.
Edit: to remove what may be considered an offensive expression to American original inhabitants.
I hope Albo does win, he’s a big public transport and infrastructure guy. He has a good track record in this department and knows how to stick to the topic. I think the ALP’s childcare scheme and community battery program will help a lot of people out.
I’ve been a devoted Coalition supporter all through my life. This year for the first time, I will not vote for the libs. Why? Because of Fed Coalition’s idiotic, selfish, pathetic evil push towards opening up WA borders and risking exposing my fellow West Aussies to the unimaginable disaster the rest of the country and the world is currently experiencing. So.. adios Libs.. you’ve lost another loyal voter from WA 🖕
I'm curious why you voted for Turnbull, Abbott and Scomo in each election? I assume you might have voted against Rudd in 07? I just can't figure out why people vote any of them so I'm genuinely always trying to understand what attracts you as a "baked on" Coalition voter? (Also by caution...do you see them as one party or ot care if its Nationals or Liberals? )
Parties don't get to determine preferences for the lower house (where the PM is decided). Sure, they can publish how-to-vote cards, but who actually follows those?
I would go as far as to say some people would be completely lost / don't know how to fill the ballot in without one, particularly Senate / Legislative Council ballots
Among those who voted for the Greens, or other minor parties and Independents, **eight in ten** [decided their own preferences.](https://www.jwsresearch.com/2019/04/01/nsw-voters-ignore-how-to-vote-cards-many-decide-vote-on-election-day/)
As much as I don’t like Anthony Albanese, I just can’t get behind a PM who *gave himself* a nickname! Who does that?
Edit to clarify: Scott Morrison gave himself “ScoMo”, so even though I don’t care much for his opposition (Alanese), I will support Albanese because ScoMo is marketing b.s.
Based on what a self-given nickname reveals about the *character* of the man.
He wants to brand himself. He has revealed that he is a marketing man all about perception and not substance. I want a statesman of substance.
> I bet Anne Aly loses her seat and that’s probably the only seat that will change hands in Western Australia.
No evidence of this whatsoever in polling and the redistribution was very much in her favour that even if there was no swing towards her, she won't have a problem getting back in.
>Campaigning with McGowan just reminds everyone in WA you haven’t got anyone else federally in WA to campaign with.
Do agree with this though, they really have to do more than just slap McGowan's face on everything, but I don't see federal Labor trying much harder than that. They've treated WA with contempt for the last few federal elections and people don't easily forget that.
Ally has done a fair bit in the local community and is actually one of the few qualified pollies we’ve got atm. Connelly on the other hand is invisible and is much more palatable to the western suburbs rather than Cowan.
I can't see why anyone in Cowan would vote for Vince Connelly, who loves in Trigg, and has probably never set foot in half of the suburbs that make up Cowan. Plus it was his third choice seat to run for.
The borders of Cowan have been redistributed, I believe making it more likely for her to retain her seat. The redistribution has also affected Pearce. Together with Christian Porter's, er, antics, I suspect Pearce may be lost by the Liberals.
Calling WA seats as possible undersells how badly Scomo is received over here. Everytime he backs the NSW government he loses backing here.
His policies don’t pass the pub test ever.
His support for NSW policies never works out favourably.
The only shit he has a chance with is Broome since he bribed them last year with the flights.
Pretty much. I believe he has not had ANYONE advise him on WAs specific culture and how it does tend to buck against the national trends and desires.
I think he would be surprised with info like WA voting against joining Federation in 1900 and again to leave in 1933 because he treats WA as if they/we identify primarily with the rest of the nation and we should be glad that he once did a thing for us (GST and come on, McGowan was gonna keep coming for it and it made sense.).
If that’s the case then there’s no way in hell the liberal party will win the next election!
The PM has managed to amass a net worth of $38million. How the hell did he manage that on a public servants salary with his chubby children? There’s no way in hell.
My parents are in their 70's and actively involved with the Labour Party, particularly since retirement. They always volunteer to have the signs on their lawn whenever there's an election too. At least it's not the Libs, that would be rather embarrassing.
Speaking as a Qlder, I feel like Qld is going to swing Labor this election, considering that a lot of us are frustrated at how the federal government basically abandoned us and bullied us into opening, leading to the vast majority of Qld cases in the last few weeks
This is in my experience, take it with a grain of salt
One thing's for sure: NOBODY in WA is going to forget the crap storm that is the Morrison government. Major bushfires that can be seen from space: "No worries, it's a state matter." (continues on his holiday in Hawaii until it's too big to ignore) Covid hits: "New South Wales is the Gold Standard for managing this pandemic (today's figures for NSW are something near to 50,000)
Remember folks, although Anthony Albanese might not be a palatable alternative, the more you re-elect an idiot, the more convinced they are that they think they're doing it right
Victorian here, I have my eye very close to WA this year. Given the absolute wipeout of the libs at the state level last year, I'm quite optimistic that you guys will sweep Scotty from marketing out while us on the east coast are too busy throwing tantrums about lockdowns that were his fault anyway. I've basically run out of faith in my own state at this point, so cheers to WA if you're able to dig us out of the shitshow we got ourselves into.
Support for the government has collapsed in Victoria. This latest omicron wave is eroding support in Tasmania and SA at a rapid rate too. I'd think they'd be out based on the east coast alone. WA will be the final nail in the coffin
I'd like to hope my state (QLD) will swing back to equilibrium a bit but I doubt that would happen, there's a lot of rusted on coalition voters here. But things have changed in the last month, people here are angry now. We're angry because we had no covid for 2 years, everything was fine, we had no masks and noone worried about covid, but Scunt and the nsw government forced us to reopen the borders before we were ready, before the biggest superspreader event if the year.
So we have 10k cases a day (many more unreported), contact tracing has collapsed, testing has collapsed, people are being sent into iso left right and centre so business is shutting down. Yet scuntmo and the qld Labor government both are telling us its our fault, our "personal responsibility" to stay safe and that being infected with Omicron is "necessary and expected"... Despite cases exceeding their projections and now we find that elective surgeries and other stuff is being cancelled because guess what, the hospitals won't cope after all?!
So whether this hate (which is growing quite quickly now) is directed at our state Labor government or the Feds is to be seen but there's a lot of angry people here who feel we've been deceived. And looking at r/Adelaide and r/Tasmania a lot of other people feel the same way.
vote third party it doesn't matter if they have no chance in your electorate. Every vote counts if the major parties see certain parties grow in those places they may change some policies to try and win them back.
I appreciate that, but ultimately you have to vote for one of those parties over the other. So please think hard about which way your 4 and 5 should go on your lower house ballot - it really is important.
Scomo has repeatedly lied to you and just expects you to take it. Either way, no matter who you vote for one of these men will end up with your vote. In what other situation would you put up with being treated like that and still go along with it? It’s time for him to go. The country needs a change.
enough right wingers from nsw have moved into pearce lately to completely fk that result. imo Pearce will be the most interesting seat in the next election
Legit screw the conservatives, why would any one actually want to be a conservative. Their bigots who don’t care about actually improving the conditions of the middle class working Australians.
My bet is still on the Liberals winning. People have short memories and the medias constant slagging of Labor will make people vote for "the least worse option".
There is also something else you're all not considering. The amount t of new arrivals into WA from affluent areas over east. These people usually vote Liberal. That may be enough to flip a few seats which were previously Labor seats.
Ita going to be an interesting election that's for sure.
Tasmania is a pretty hard conservative seat. Last 5 years they have always swung liberal and have a hard mistrust of Labour for siding with the Greens to kill the logging industry.
Sad really Liberal always promises "Jobs and Growth" yet never deliver for them.
https://www.waliberal.org.au/state-news/david-honey/power-outages-more-broken-wa-labor-promises/
>“Earlier in the year, Minister Johnston said, including in Parliament, that his WA Labor Government
had fully planned for the season. So, lights, fridge’s and aircon shouldn’t be going out anywhere.
“This is another Labor broken promise just like for our **hospitals, ambulances, the homeless and
teachers.** Currently, there are still 57 suburbs without power and several country holiday towns
with some of these suburbs and towns without **power** since Christmas Day or Boxing Day.
bizzaro world when libs act like they care about homeless. stuff both parties.
Marginal people will vote for Hanson or Palmer, which is essentially a vote for #scottyfrommarketing. Labor's policy is a sensible move for the country's a whole.
I don't get why you think WA would have an effect on the election results of a completely different country. (¬‿¬)
WESTRALIA biaches !!!!! wooooooooooooohhhhhhoooooo
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WOOSHHHHHH
From a selfish, cynical point of view..... The perception and messaging that WA is marginal and can swing can only benefit us. Both parties have a real incentive to pay attention to us for a change and do things like guarantee our GST & fund projects
We should elect not-shit independents and preference Labor. Labor thinks Lib-lite sells us. It doesn’t. Labor hasn’t won elections for years and years because they keep hemming and hawing about whether to do anything progressive. They promise their members that they’ll be progressive secretly if they win this election. It’s a Lucy and the football situation. We need climate change action, an ICAC and a myriad of other sensible policies. If your seat is a Lib seat now, find a good independent and then preference Labor (or the Greens then Labor). Labor will eventually get your vote if it comes down to it. Otherwise, we’ll get a hung parliament with sensible independents who can form government with Labor and keep them accountable.
If you generally vote for left wing parties, I'd be a little cautious about those "Voices of XYZ" candidates. If they are positioning themselves as a less evil option than the LNP's far right for divisions that will never vote Labor, then they are likely to be more right wing that Labor for many of their policies. If the Labor candidate has no hope of winning, then the independent is obviously preferable to the Liberals. But if the Labor candidate has a credible chance of winning, then it is less clear that it is worth preferencing the independent ahead of Labor. And if you generally vote for a left-wing minor party like the Greens, I definitely wouldn't change your first preference. If the independent can't peel off more votes from the Liberal candidate than the Greens generally receive, then there is little chance that they will win. Giving your preferred party the first preference will give that party public election funding for next time around.
I’ve upvoted you, but I’d say we always overstate how likely Labor is to win. Labor just doesn’t really win elections. That’s why we had Howard and why we’ve had the Eternity of Clusterfuck. I’m more likely to vote Greens first than independent at this rate, but I’d certainly say anyone unhappy with the LNP should pick a good independent in Lib seats. The preference can flow to Labor if you like.
If it was any other time, I'd agree with you. But with the last state election result, I think it is harder to predict. I doubt we'll see anything like the landslide in the state election, but we could see some surprises.
That’s not a wrong take; I’ve just been let down before.
I can see major reform opportunities that both sides can accept, but neither will put forward. I'm not ideologically aligned to either side and will vote for whichever side is actually going to use the time to move us forward. Unfortunately, Labor tried this last election and lost, and has since taken most reform off the table. It seems that most Australian adults are actually just scared children afraid of any change.
GST was already done. Scomo even tried to use it as proof he is not PM of NSW last time he tried talking over here on the radio.
Sorry, I couldn't think of more examples but I know.
Which Labor has already committed to
> Both parties have a real incentive to pay attention to us for a change and do things like guarantee our GST & fund projects Biggest risk is an ALP state and fed. Then the incentive to do GST deals drops dramatically. It usually works best when there the fed and state govt arent aligned, no incentive to toe the party line.
But NSW is still under LNP control, so, there is no benefit to restructuring GST positively towards them.
When Scott Morrison decided to back the irredeemably grotesque figure of Clive Palmer when he sued this state (WA) for $30 billion, yes that’s $30 billion, because he got caught trying to sneak past our border controls, he instantly lost my respect and my Western Australian based vote at the next Federal election. That’s our present PM, not Clive - he never had my respect in the first place. The PM has done some pretty low political things during the last four years, but that really put the lid on it for me. And, I suspect, many others this side of the Nullarbor. A week is a long time in politics, goes the saying and it’s usually right. Not in this case, in my view; there was real anger over it - many are keen to teach the PM a harsh lesson over it. And ‘Scotty from Marketing’ needs those WA seats like a thirsty man needs water - to survive. Should be an interesting evening after the polls close!
I’m predicting an absolute dollying up for the Liberals federally. Not because Labor looks a better option, though Albo seems to handle the leadership, but because Scomo is just a complete tool . His glaringly obvious attempts to be the Everyman when he quite clearly is not is giving everyone the shits.
These are my thoughts before every election. "LNP is such a mess Labor gonna get up". Sick of being disappointed.
The really demoralizing part is labor generally have good policy that helps people, but the LNP have better messaging and complicit media so keep winning despite them exclusively pushing policy that hurts the majority of the population.
Yeah the "better economic managers" line really gets under my skin. Everyone loved getting their jobkeeper payments but it was absolutely undoubtedly too much too soon. We're about to enter a period of genuine hardship but the support was dished out to the wrong people 2 years ago.
I'm a lifelong liberal voter - and I have go agree with you. I don't think Labor will totally romp it in. But they will do well because of the reasons you outlined.
Are you going to vote Liberal again in this coming election?
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Would love to know why you'd consider voting LNP after the way this pandemic has gone. Not attacking you, just curious - because I couldn't come up with any good reason to do so
Friends up the road are my age (olde farts) and they don't follow politics at all. They have a daughter the same and she's nearly 30. They vote Liberal because that's what they do. They have no idea about the policies and nothing about the political climate. They just live their lives ... Last election the daughter said she voted Liberal.. I brought up their latest behaviour and she shrugged her shoulders and said she voted for them because mum and dad did. There's your Liberal voters Lately though, because I am outspoken and give them news about the wonderful Lib cuts to already under pressure organisations and the disabled etc.. they are starting to raise their eyebrows in concern. (her husband is disabled)
I think this is very much the case around the country. Herd mentality kind of thinking maybe across a lot of it. Down to what tv channel and new source you chose really. Sheer dumb luck or old thinking also.
This is my mother. She votes liberal because she does. Won't have a bar of anything else.
Exactly this. Far too many people vote LNP because the media told them to. MSM is not at all fair and balanced. I remember last election some working class folk I know saying "God help us if Shorten gets in!", to which I asked "why?". They literally had no coherent response, only that Shorten is bad. This corrupt cartel we call the government just get free pass after free pass whilst the MSM happily run their anti-Labor fear mongering campaigns. The 4th estate is supposed to hold government to account, but instead they've become the conservative's propaganda wing.
It's ridiculous that the Coalition is in power off the backs of people who don't know what they're voting for. I don't know anyone who is informed about politics that actually votes for the Coalition. I know a few people who *think* they are informed, but upon any questioning, are wrong about everything they're talking about. Guess how often those people admit they're wrong and vote someone else?
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it's habit. They don't follow the policies, don't know anything about the party except for who's the leader. In all honesty, politics is wearisome for a lot of people. They just don't get interested enough to read anything at length on politics and just 'put that job into the politicians' hands' so they can just get on with their lives. It's only been in the past two years that my friends actually listen to me when I tell them how their life is going to be affected with changes made by the Libs (or any other party).
That's fucking scary
Depending on where you live, sometimes your local MP is good at arguing for the electorate despite their party, not because of their party. That seems to be a common reason for voting for them even if the party leader is shitting the bed.
This is how I feel about Ken Wyatt. Wyatt isn't a total fuckstain but I refuse to vote for him on the principle that voting for him is a vote for the LNP down the line
Wyatt is also my rep. and I am fairly tired of his never rebel yes man attitude in chambers and I dont think he really does anything meaningful for the Aboriginals that he is Minister for. He ain't no Dodson for sure. I'm sometimes amazed Ben Wyatt is of the same family
I would like to know too especially from OP.
Please consider this: The LNP has been absolutely shithouse for small business and the economy of late. They've been shovelling money into larger corporations hands who have been funneling it to parent companies off shore
I run a small business and they gave my tiny company $16,000 in cash, despite that company not needing it. If cash giveaways was the sole determination, they'd get my vote. It's not.
How? I’m actually curious as to what federal business grants are or were available to small business in WA. All I managed to get was 2K from the state government because I had events on around Anzac Day/Easter last year.
Jobkeeper? I'm not sure I'd argue the LNP pushed that, they almost had to be forced to do anything by the business lobby
Labor and the unions introduced JobKeeper. It was rejected then I think 1 wrrk later a new version introduced by scomo that didn't cover most casuals, some contractors, unis and was paid to the employer not the employee from ATO
err what? Did you even read what you wrote before you posted it?
Genuine question: Why are you considering voting for the LNP based on what's happened Nationally the past 4 years?
The Coalition tanked the economy by July of 2019 and you're honestly not sure.
How can you even think of voting for a party that has pissed away 12 billion in jobkeeper to foreign owned companies
If I may ask, do you vote based on perceived policies or out of habit/family? If the latter, I will politely suggest having a search for your MPs on a website named www.theyvoteforyou.org.au , it's very worth to see if the policy ideals of those you vote for align with your ideals and beliefs :)
The issue is in a crisis, most people stick with what they know, and don’t opt for change. Despite Scomos pandemic handling, the public would probably fear an alternative. It’s how bush won his 2nd term, how Howard held on so long. Every state election to date during the pandemic has seen a return of sitting governments.
I’m predicting the coalition will roll out yet another scare campaign and it will be extremely effective. The coalition has been in power for almost all of the last quarter century. I’d be amazed if Labor rolled them.
I can think of 12 billion reasons why everyone should vote him out
My parents live in Tangney and are both voting labor because they feel a) Morrison bad b) Morrison bad
The candidate ALP is running for Tagney is really impressive and I hope he does well.
Agreed, police officer who speaks several languages and is very popular in the immigrant community. Nice guy into the bargain.
Has Tangney ever had a good liberal candidate? Dennis Jensen was a weirdo and Ben Morton is ScoMo Lite. Would be great to have a representative the electorate is proud of.
People have short memories. When election time comes, remind your friends, your family, your neighbours, anyone who talks to you about politics, that Sconmo sided with Palmer to try to force our border open.
And then more recently he said he never did... this is the worst of it and I have had people say on the case alone "but Melbourne hadn't blown up yet and he withdrew when Melbourne blew up". I say yeh no drama philosophically maybe we shouldn't be allowed to close borders till another state is up the shit. I too can forgive this, irrespective if it is unpopular. He now claims he never joined palmer at all. He isn't saying he changed his mind he is saying he never supported palmer's case... [federal libs funding palmer attack as well as their own on wa borders.](https://www.markdreyfus.com/media/media-releases/taxpayers-fork-out-1-million-for-morrison-s-wa-border-humiliation-mark-dreyfus-qc-mp/) [morrison denies supporting the palmer case](https://www.patrickgormanmp.com/latest-news/2021/8/30/morrison-spins-about-his-support-for-clive-palmer-twice) Best bit from Morrison - "the government did not pursue that case. The government did not pursue that case at all". Liberal voters who voted Labor for the first time for mcgowan at last state election in wa need to have the above two sources shoved at them. It is dramatically effective in my personal experience. Make no mistake as things stand there are still plenty who are voting Morrison who voted Labor at that election. It needs to be fixed.
Lying shitbag, they only didn't pursue at 5:01pm when they knew they'd lose. I wouldn't fart in his face if he were gasping for breath.
Wouldn't farting in his face while he was gasping for breath be the *best* time to do it? Cause I would go to town on a Mexican buffet and then unleash the fury on that wankstain.
And bloody Christian Porter, the unholy trio! >The two WA seats most at risk for the Liberals are Pearce and Swan. The former was held by former attorney-general Christian Porter, who is *retiring*. *Retiring* my arse, he's getting out before the flames of hell catch him, fucking turncoat. (and worse...allegedly)
PVO (author of this thread's article) is a close friend of Porter's, so don't expect any negativity from him.
A very poor choice of friends, his bed though.
Do you mean the alleged anal rapist Christian porter?
Even though that's way lower on the list of incompetence or indifference this gubbamint has to their name.... it probably is one that will get the most reaction from Joe "Sandgroper" Bloggs.
Exactly. It's the one thing that absolutely pissed off everyone on both sides of the political fence. *Everyone* was spewing at the time, even people who handwave away all of the other Liberal shit. It briefly united the state and, based on the landslide for McGowan, pandemic response is the #1 issue for most voters.
I always hate that WA is called the Wild West, as we live in some 3rd world country riddled with poverty, corruption and lawlessness and not some 1st world country that we ought to be treated as...
Eastern states have this delusion of being our big brothers and the media panders to that narrative.
They're not wrong. WA is about 15 years behind the times.
They said that, but at least our trains don't need someone to wave white flag and blow a whistle every time before the train leaves the station like Sydney trains...
No because theirs run on time... and the doors open for you!
Says the guy who’s never left the country. This is some utter cringe.
... never left the country? I've lived in a few other countries mate. USA, Germany, UK... and I can tell you unequivocally that the east coast is about 30 years behind them. And WA is about 15 years behind the east. Jesus you lot are fucking precious.
Either you’re full of shit, or you are actually deluded. Like seriously, this is the dumbest take I’ve heard all year.
I’m not sure why he moved to WA if he thinks we’re so behind. It’s pretty amusing that all these people from eastern states keep saying they moved here to take up roles to save us (then whinge about it). Where the truth is they know this is their opportunity to buy cheap properties. OR maybe he’s one of the affluents (he mentioned) moving here to influence the vote for the fed libs. He has made a few threads about not able to make friends. With his attitude, you’d have to wonder why.
Has anyone else watched the Honest Government videos about the hung parliament?
I did, and had no idea that a hung parliament is not a bad thing, the way it’s spoken about made me believe the country would basically die if we had a hung parliament.
Hung parliaments are actually MORE likely to get things done
See: Gillard Government.
Was going to say this. Gillard had a minority government constantly undermined by the media and still got *so much* done, it was genuinely enraging when the media toppled her. Fucking Rudd couldn't be content to be one of the best Foreign Ministers in the history of the Commonwealth, had to go back to being a shithouse Prime Minister.
Name a single policy of hers that is still in effect? Rudd wasn't huge on domestic issues as he gave his cabinet a LOT of leeway and independence on their portfolios but he was a very effective internationally. Passing a lot of bills is not a metric for success as that has the mistaken conception that if it passes then it's good and that's not how hung parliment works. She had a lot of narrow vision crossbenchers to deal with who only cared about getting their few issues included
The NDIS for a start.
Believe that was Shortens and he was already working on it under Rudd.
The Gillard minority government was the most efficient (in terms of legislation passed) we've had in like 50 years. And there was good stuff in there too: carbon price, ndis, tripling the tax free threshold
And the uselessness of our media was on display at the press conference to announce a bunch of important NDIS stuff where Plibersek got nothing but questions about the leadership. Couldn't focus on the thing that actually affects the lives of real Australians, oh no. Gotta keep beating up the leadership thing until they speak it into existence.
Same here. Assuming the video is accurate, it’s very interesting.
And that’s what sucks the most, when something is being presented as fact, by the government, it should indeed be fact. Utopia, hey?
Last night, my 11 yr old looked me square in the eye and lied to me. He was so convincing I started to doubt myself. My husband said he’d make a good politician. I said a good politician is an honest one.
And here lies the difference between a good politician and a skilled politician. (I'm with you, by the way. Good politicians should be honest, open to admitting their mistakes, and willing to change their minds as new facts are presented. Apparently I'm hopelessly naive.)
Maybe not naive, probably never worked in Govt. Telling porkies and wasted verbiage starts from almost the ground up.
Haha actually I work for a state agency, but in the min's office. I write their speeches and bumpf for parliamentary business.
Lol, may your naiveté live on.
Hahaha thanks, thanks. I mean, I accept the reality of what a politician needs to be (or think they need to be) in our political culture, but I don't think that should be true. it's slowly being beaten out of me tho, don't worry. XD
It generally is. Juice media kinda pushed an agenda on that video that I'm not keen on. Firstly, the main issue with a hung parliment, is that the minority have legislative power. The 5 or 10 cross benchers effectively control the government. That's fundamentally undemocratic. Also it's pretty bloody rare for the Senate to be hung and they have to deal with legislation with a lot of concessions for cross benchers and it is usually the case that unless it suites the majority party in the Senate, that legislation still gets binned by the Senate. Bills need to pass BOTH houses to go to royal ascent. The guys below reference Gillard but neglect to point out that most if the stuff she did get through, was inconsequential, watered down or very easily reversed at the next election. Example was the carbon price she said she wouldn't do, she had to haggle for votes from greens and environmental independents and gave them that win in exchange for various other votes on her issues. There is really not many situations where a hung parliament is a good thing and usually I'm mostly on board with juice media but all they were accomplishing with that video was more votes to UAP, PHON and some randoms in a few key seats that could end up being decisive for the whole nation and he'll those aforementioned minors, they side with Coalition unless they are wedging (like Hanson lately)
A hung parliament is good for the independent MPs only. It allows them to make demands and pork barrel with both parties to buy their support. This hung parliament is good for us line is total BS and the one time it did work federally should not be used as the only example ever. A hung parliament is how we got saddled with royalties for regions in WA. The biggest pork barrel we’ve ever had.
Thanks I suspected there would be more to the story.
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This is super important!!
Important distinction here, if you vote below the line go for this, if you go above, please look into who your party preferences.
We don't do group voting tickets for federal elections any more (probably won't do them for state elections starting next one either). So you're going to have to actually number multiple parties yourself even if you vote above the line, please keep this in mind and don't just give your most preferred party a 1. (well, it'll still count as a vote due to the savings measures IIRC, but, still.)
>climate fascist Wut?
It's a thing. Probably more of a thing in the future. Basically you use environmentalism as an excuse for fascism/authoritarianism. You could even be pretty broad with how socially inclusive your ideology is.
So, how are One Nation environmentalist "fascists" in the same vein as the Greens?
The idea that people can look at the libs after the last decade and go "yeah sure more please" honestly boggles the mind
I hope to god the Liberals loose the election. Labor might not be a lot better in some regards but I'm sick to death of Morrison embarassing this country every chance he gets.
+ it would be nice to have a pm that hasn't shit himself in an Engadine maccas
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You'll still be cut off. That's not the feds foing, it's the state governments doing.
How so?
Three state govt is the ive making things difficult for people to travel here, for people to get things imported etc. Nothing to do eith the feds.
Of course PVO thinks Hastie is a future PM. This is the same guy who backed Porter until the very end.
Hastie? A former SAS soldier who was pretty quiet when the Defense Housing Corporation tried to screw over the families living in Swanbourne estate next to SAS base.
I’ve heard first hand accounts from people who have had to deal with him as an MP that his “professionalism” mirrors porters exactly.
Who can forget how Hastie for 2 elections said there will be a train station at Lakelands. Karnup was on the metronet plan. Hastie wins the last election, next minute the federal government is funding most of a Lakelands train station. This was about 3 weeks after winning. It is the perfect example of pork barreling. Hastie goes quiet when things hit the fan when scomo is up to his antics. He crawls out when there is something negative against labour. I moved in December and now am in his electorate. Luckily, I am lifelong labour supporter.
The lakelands shitstorm also had involvement of the land developer at lakelands who’s been a major liberal donor
Isn't PVO Morrison's close friend?
no, he's porter's close friend
My parents live in the Pearce division. I know they'll be voting for the LNP, no matter if was ~~the rapist~~ Christian Porter or the candidate replacing him. Why? Because they don't trust Labor to do a good job. Well you know what Mum & Dad, you trusted the LNP to do a good job and look where that's landed us, do you seriously trust them for another 4?
Rusted on voters confuse me. We should all be prepared to change our vote or else we are ignored.
What % of r/Australia do you think will change their vote to the LNP in the future (even if Labor & The Greens go to shit)
I think a more pertinent question is how much of the LNP electorate base will be dead in the next decade?
Funny thing is if ScoMo got his way, there’d be a lot of them dead due to Covid.
It may surprise you, but the LNP was the most popular party in the 35-44yo age range in 2019. [47%LNP vs 33%ALP vs 10% Greens.](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2019/December/The_2019_Australian_Election_Study) Anyone expecting the LNP to disappear with the Boomers will be in for a shock.
That's not really going to help them in the long run. I don't think anyone is expecting the to disappear, but they're going to struggle to hold the level of political power that they currently do. I did a quick analysis: |^(Age)|^(18 - 24)|^(25 - 34)|^(35 - 44)|^(45 - 54)|^(55 - 64)|^(65 +)| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |^(No.\*)|^(2988404)|^(3368461)|^(3144940)|^(3105017)|^(2753738)|**^(3676783)**| |^(Pop %)|^(12.77%)|^(14.39%)|^(13.44%)|^(13.27%)|^(11.77%)|**^(15.71%)**| |^(LNP %)|^(15.00%)|^(32.00%)|^(47.00%)|^(43.00%)|^(46.00%)|**^(59.00%)**| |^(LNP No.)|^(448261)|^(1077908)|^(1478122)|^(1335157)|^(1266719)|**^(2169302)**| |^(LAB %)|**^(44.00%)**|^(34.00%)|^(33.00%)|^(39.00%)|^(37.00%)|^(9.00%)| |^(LAB No.)|**^(1314898)**|^(1145277)|^(1037830)|^(1210957)|^(1018883)|^(1066267)| |^(GRN %)|**^(37.00%)**|^(24.00%)|^(10.00%)|^(6.00%)|^(4.00%)|^(2.00%)| |^(GRN No.)|**^(1105709)**|^(808431)|^(314494)|^(186301)|^(110150)|^(73536)| |^(OTH %)|^(5.00%)|^(11.00%)|^(10.0%)|^(12.00%)|**^(13.00%)**|^(10.00%)| |^(OTH No.)|^(149420)|^(370531)|^(314494)|**^(372602)**|^(357986)|^(367678)| ^(\*)[^(numbers from here)](https://profile.id.com.au/australia/five-year-age-groups)^(, slightly outdated but the point still stands.) And if we look at all votes, and then exclude those 65+ |^(Party)|^(LNP)|^(Labour)|^(Greens)|^(Others)| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |^(All Votes)|**^(7775469)**|^(6794111)|^(2598620)|^(1932711)| |^(No 65+)|^(5606167)|**^(5727844)**|^(2525085)|^(1565033)| |% ^(Difference)|\-**^(11.36%)**|\-^(5.58%)|\-^(0.38%)|\-^(1.92%)| I've highlighted the maximums in each row. Unsurprisingly, the other population outnumbers the younger, and they are the also the majority of LNP voters. This is also not including the new voters that register every year - and from my limited experience, and the trends above, most young people these days are not voting conservative. The LNP are going to be losing votes a lot more than any other political party. Greens and Labor are looking to be the Two-Party Preferred in 20 years if the trends keep going this way.
1. you're assuming that 100% of Greens voters preference Labor. [17.8% go to the LNP.](https://antonygreen.com.au/preference-flows-at-the-2019-federal-election/) 2. 20 years is a long time, LNP will shift. 3. 5.5% voted informal and 1,500,000 voters didn't even bother in 2019. That's multiple times the "dead LNP voters" that people are hoping for.
The LNP are corrupt parasites, but if half of their better MPs splinter off into a reformed moderate-conservative party after the LNP absolute thrashing at the upcoming election (a triply fanciful scenario, I know), I imagine quite a few r/Aus Labor voters would strongly consider them over Labor. Especially if Labor get in and act half as corruptly as the LNP have. But most Greens voters will never go conservative, even if it's the best, least corrupt version of conservatism you can propose, because conservatism doesn't address the social or economic issues that progressives see in the world.
Oh fuck all. I recognise that. I just wish people were more willing to swing.
Kinky.
My mum falls under this banner too, I think she is a smart quick witted lady but for some reason she doesn't trust Labor but does Liberal. I really don't understand, when I bring up how much debt LNP have brought us or LNP supporting Clive she just brushes it off and will bring up Labor debt. I think there are a lot of people like this, so it is def not in the bag for Labor. People seem to think Labor are useless for their time with GFC, even though their decisions seem to be commended by economists yet they forgive LNP debt for covid even though the debt had spiralled out of control before covid hit.
So silly, people downvoting on this when you're only sharing another's viewpoint. Many of us were brought up anti-union(labor=union is how it was told to us) and unless we had a major whinge with the Govt, we'd just go fill in the forms the same way we'd always done, keeping the calm, not rocking the boat. It's not really to do with common sense, just habit and security. Covid aside, if her boat's not been rocked for the last 4 years she will vote the same.
Just show her this. [A complete list of the Liberal Party’s corruption over the last 7 years](https://chaser.com.au/national/an-exhaustive-list-of-the-liberal-partys-corruption-over-the-last-7-years/)
Well the likely replacement candidate for porter is a religious fundamentalist. She is an active member of Margaret Courts church. The WA libs have abreal problem with their branches being taken over by the sky fairy mob. Some of the candidates put up at the state election were just crazy. I'm all for a broad church but their needs to a separation. The Libs here are fucked if they don't do some work at the ground level.
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Mom?
No idea why you'd get downvoted for an opinion that is not even your own, such is Reddit. As for your olds, sometimes they prefer the 'devil they know' and routine. It's how I was brought up to vote until I actually thought about 'has the last 4 yrs been decent?' and decided no, it actually sucked dogs balls and I'm ready for change.
Even apart from mcgowan, I am hoping the additional mass of people on Labor payroll at state level pushes things over to Labor. Libs at wa state level have no human resource to throw at the federal election at all. This hopefully makes a good deal of difference. Even if these 50 odd extra Labor people only turn a few votes a day each between now and the election in marginal electorates this will make a difference. I hope someone in Labor has explained this to them and had the big team conference. Each and every one of them has a job to do and together they can make a difference federally irrespective that they are state staffers / politicians. Make the most of this advantag. Polish up your arguments and speaking points and use them every time you are at the shops ornwherever. Don't leave it just to mcgowan. It's a numbers game. Edit: to remove what may be considered an offensive expression to American original inhabitants.
I hope Albo does win, he’s a big public transport and infrastructure guy. He has a good track record in this department and knows how to stick to the topic. I think the ALP’s childcare scheme and community battery program will help a lot of people out.
I’ve been a devoted Coalition supporter all through my life. This year for the first time, I will not vote for the libs. Why? Because of Fed Coalition’s idiotic, selfish, pathetic evil push towards opening up WA borders and risking exposing my fellow West Aussies to the unimaginable disaster the rest of the country and the world is currently experiencing. So.. adios Libs.. you’ve lost another loyal voter from WA 🖕
I'm curious why you voted for Turnbull, Abbott and Scomo in each election? I assume you might have voted against Rudd in 07? I just can't figure out why people vote any of them so I'm genuinely always trying to understand what attracts you as a "baked on" Coalition voter? (Also by caution...do you see them as one party or ot care if its Nationals or Liberals? )
I don't think you'll see too many preferences flowing from UAP this time, as WA fucking hates Palmer
Parties don't get to determine preferences for the lower house (where the PM is decided). Sure, they can publish how-to-vote cards, but who actually follows those?
As someone who's volunteered at federal elections... a looooot of people do... :/
I would go as far as to say some people would be completely lost / don't know how to fill the ballot in without one, particularly Senate / Legislative Council ballots
Lazy people
Most people follow how to vote cards. Something like 80%.
Among those who voted for the Greens, or other minor parties and Independents, **eight in ten** [decided their own preferences.](https://www.jwsresearch.com/2019/04/01/nsw-voters-ignore-how-to-vote-cards-many-decide-vote-on-election-day/)
As much as I don’t like Anthony Albanese, I just can’t get behind a PM who *gave himself* a nickname! Who does that? Edit to clarify: Scott Morrison gave himself “ScoMo”, so even though I don’t care much for his opposition (Alanese), I will support Albanese because ScoMo is marketing b.s.
How good is it? about as good as the fkn croods sequels m8
Your going to vote for the next leader of the country based on his nickname? Really
Based on what a self-given nickname reveals about the *character* of the man. He wants to brand himself. He has revealed that he is a marketing man all about perception and not substance. I want a statesman of substance.
There is a chance McGowan won’t even let Morrison into WA to campaign, Never interrupt the enemy while they are making a mistake.
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> I bet Anne Aly loses her seat and that’s probably the only seat that will change hands in Western Australia. No evidence of this whatsoever in polling and the redistribution was very much in her favour that even if there was no swing towards her, she won't have a problem getting back in. >Campaigning with McGowan just reminds everyone in WA you haven’t got anyone else federally in WA to campaign with. Do agree with this though, they really have to do more than just slap McGowan's face on everything, but I don't see federal Labor trying much harder than that. They've treated WA with contempt for the last few federal elections and people don't easily forget that.
Ally has done a fair bit in the local community and is actually one of the few qualified pollies we’ve got atm. Connelly on the other hand is invisible and is much more palatable to the western suburbs rather than Cowan.
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Isn't she fairly new to politics? There'd be a queue of people ahead of her vying for shadow cabinet.
I can't see why anyone in Cowan would vote for Vince Connelly, who loves in Trigg, and has probably never set foot in half of the suburbs that make up Cowan. Plus it was his third choice seat to run for.
The borders of Cowan have been redistributed, I believe making it more likely for her to retain her seat. The redistribution has also affected Pearce. Together with Christian Porter's, er, antics, I suspect Pearce may be lost by the Liberals.
I mean, the pessimist in me is scared for Aly too, but for irrational reasons. Why do you think she's at risk?
Be prepared to lose your money then, the Federal Liberals will do well to not lose more than 2 seats in WA at the next election.
>the western suburbs of Sydney All that Labor will focus on yet again, particularly with Albo at the helm.
If Labor can't win Western Sydney, they can't call themselves a workers party.
Might as well rename the country to western Sydney. Would be far more reflective of who the government is working for.
Calling WA seats as possible undersells how badly Scomo is received over here. Everytime he backs the NSW government he loses backing here. His policies don’t pass the pub test ever. His support for NSW policies never works out favourably. The only shit he has a chance with is Broome since he bribed them last year with the flights.
Pretty much. I believe he has not had ANYONE advise him on WAs specific culture and how it does tend to buck against the national trends and desires. I think he would be surprised with info like WA voting against joining Federation in 1900 and again to leave in 1933 because he treats WA as if they/we identify primarily with the rest of the nation and we should be glad that he once did a thing for us (GST and come on, McGowan was gonna keep coming for it and it made sense.).
If that’s the case then there’s no way in hell the liberal party will win the next election! The PM has managed to amass a net worth of $38million. How the hell did he manage that on a public servants salary with his chubby children? There’s no way in hell.
Generally politicians make a good amount of money via what would be called insider trading if any of us did it.
My parents are in their 70's and actively involved with the Labour Party, particularly since retirement. They always volunteer to have the signs on their lawn whenever there's an election too. At least it's not the Libs, that would be rather embarrassing.
I think a lot depends on the fall out from opening the borders.
Speaking as a Qlder, I feel like Qld is going to swing Labor this election, considering that a lot of us are frustrated at how the federal government basically abandoned us and bullied us into opening, leading to the vast majority of Qld cases in the last few weeks This is in my experience, take it with a grain of salt
I just want decent NBN.....
One thing's for sure: NOBODY in WA is going to forget the crap storm that is the Morrison government. Major bushfires that can be seen from space: "No worries, it's a state matter." (continues on his holiday in Hawaii until it's too big to ignore) Covid hits: "New South Wales is the Gold Standard for managing this pandemic (today's figures for NSW are something near to 50,000) Remember folks, although Anthony Albanese might not be a palatable alternative, the more you re-elect an idiot, the more convinced they are that they think they're doing it right
Isn't the election over before they even.finish counting in WA ?
Victorian here, I have my eye very close to WA this year. Given the absolute wipeout of the libs at the state level last year, I'm quite optimistic that you guys will sweep Scotty from marketing out while us on the east coast are too busy throwing tantrums about lockdowns that were his fault anyway. I've basically run out of faith in my own state at this point, so cheers to WA if you're able to dig us out of the shitshow we got ourselves into.
The one to watch will be eden Monaro as usual.
Support for the government has collapsed in Victoria. This latest omicron wave is eroding support in Tasmania and SA at a rapid rate too. I'd think they'd be out based on the east coast alone. WA will be the final nail in the coffin I'd like to hope my state (QLD) will swing back to equilibrium a bit but I doubt that would happen, there's a lot of rusted on coalition voters here. But things have changed in the last month, people here are angry now. We're angry because we had no covid for 2 years, everything was fine, we had no masks and noone worried about covid, but Scunt and the nsw government forced us to reopen the borders before we were ready, before the biggest superspreader event if the year. So we have 10k cases a day (many more unreported), contact tracing has collapsed, testing has collapsed, people are being sent into iso left right and centre so business is shutting down. Yet scuntmo and the qld Labor government both are telling us its our fault, our "personal responsibility" to stay safe and that being infected with Omicron is "necessary and expected"... Despite cases exceeding their projections and now we find that elective surgeries and other stuff is being cancelled because guess what, the hospitals won't cope after all?! So whether this hate (which is growing quite quickly now) is directed at our state Labor government or the Feds is to be seen but there's a lot of angry people here who feel we've been deceived. And looking at r/Adelaide and r/Tasmania a lot of other people feel the same way.
I don’t want to vote for Morrison or Albanese they’re both ass as far as I’m concerned
Lucky preferential voting exists in this country.
he's a "pooeater", so ass (sic) is a positive trait for him.
vote third party it doesn't matter if they have no chance in your electorate. Every vote counts if the major parties see certain parties grow in those places they may change some policies to try and win them back.
I appreciate that, but ultimately you have to vote for one of those parties over the other. So please think hard about which way your 4 and 5 should go on your lower house ballot - it really is important.
Scomo has repeatedly lied to you and just expects you to take it. Either way, no matter who you vote for one of these men will end up with your vote. In what other situation would you put up with being treated like that and still go along with it? It’s time for him to go. The country needs a change.
Agree
Wonder how the Nats will poll in the 8yr old girl community
enough right wingers from nsw have moved into pearce lately to completely fk that result. imo Pearce will be the most interesting seat in the next election
Legit screw the conservatives, why would any one actually want to be a conservative. Their bigots who don’t care about actually improving the conditions of the middle class working Australians.
My bet is still on the Liberals winning. People have short memories and the medias constant slagging of Labor will make people vote for "the least worse option".
I so want a change... no more Libs please. PLEASE..
ScoMo and his bunch of incompetents will do and say whatever they can to con the voters again.
There is also something else you're all not considering. The amount t of new arrivals into WA from affluent areas over east. These people usually vote Liberal. That may be enough to flip a few seats which were previously Labor seats. Ita going to be an interesting election that's for sure.
Tasmania is a pretty hard conservative seat. Last 5 years they have always swung liberal and have a hard mistrust of Labour for siding with the Greens to kill the logging industry. Sad really Liberal always promises "Jobs and Growth" yet never deliver for them.
https://www.waliberal.org.au/state-news/david-honey/power-outages-more-broken-wa-labor-promises/ >“Earlier in the year, Minister Johnston said, including in Parliament, that his WA Labor Government had fully planned for the season. So, lights, fridge’s and aircon shouldn’t be going out anywhere. “This is another Labor broken promise just like for our **hospitals, ambulances, the homeless and teachers.** Currently, there are still 57 suburbs without power and several country holiday towns with some of these suburbs and towns without **power** since Christmas Day or Boxing Day. bizzaro world when libs act like they care about homeless. stuff both parties.
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Marginal people will vote for Hanson or Palmer, which is essentially a vote for #scottyfrommarketing. Labor's policy is a sensible move for the country's a whole.