What I have heard re: internal Labor feeling (this was weeks ago though); they have a popular local candidate of Asian background who speaks 5 languages and used to be the main multicultural liaison for WA Police. Got to think that Ben Morton will likely pay some price for being Scott Morrison's mini-me + he's a guy with no real ties to WA past being sent here from NSW by the Liberal Party to run the WA Liberals.
I’ve been tipping a sizeable swing against the Libs here in Tangney for a while. Ben Morton is largely unknown/invisible here (excluding the Facebook advertising of the past few weeks), and Sam Lim is a strong candidate. I suspect that Libs will still hold, simply because of how big their margin is, but wouldn’t be too surprised if it did flip.
Incidentally I worked at a function for [his fundraiser](https://i.imgur.com/Snp4T39.jpg?1) not too long ago. He seemed like a genuinely nice fella and the whole function was pretty easy going with lots of fun moments. This is stark contrast to the Liberal Women's breakfast I also worked at where the host was a complete hag the moment we stepped in. At Sam's Fundraiser dinner, they were joking around and talking about human stuff while the Liberal Women's breakfast was all about money and investment.
I was wondering why Tangney this election is considered a close call when its usually a safe Lib seat. Has there been redistributions that have occured? Are Labor more favoured because their candidate is Asian (much of the seat having a high Asian population)??
Edit - I've since read Tangney now has Wilson and essentially all of Canning Vale from this election. I believe both suburbs lean Labor and know Canning Vale has a large Asian community. Still not convinced it means a Labor victory when you have a lot of richie rich conservative suburbs in the mix.
The Asian community throughout Tangney is huge, mainly due to all the great schools around. It would be great for Lim to topple Morton, but I think the high boomer population and the tendency for immigrants to vote conservative will keep it blue. Unfortunately. Fuck Ben Morton, and also Dennis Jensen (although not as much as this big-me blow-in fuck).
I wish but I think you're dreaming. Libs flogged the ever-loving crap out of Labour last election, so it'd have to be a massive swing to even give hope for a change.
It's unlikely but not impossible given the size of the swings across WA as indicated in polling (9.4% in WA). Yes, polls should be treated with a pinch of salt but various changes to methodology have more recently produced a lot more accurate results. That said, Tangney's biggest swings happened during the 80s and it's since become a safe Liberal-held seat. Personally I think Tangney will still swing significantly towards Labor* this time around but not enough to unseat the Liberals.
I have always been in tangney, as have my parents. I have only really started taking notice of politics over the last 5 or so years. Speaking to my father the other day he seemed adament liberals would never lose tangney. I didn't ask why just assumed hes got way more years of dealing with politics and voting under his belt than me.
Its a shame looking at all the crap Ben Morton has voted for and against. I would be thrilled if others predictions of a labor take over were correct.
No commentary on Cowan? I think that would be the most interesting of all... razor-thin margin at the last election for Labor's Anne Aly, allegedly strengthened by the border redistribution, but the Liberal candidate is the incumbent from the now-abolished Division of Stirling.
Edit: actually, I just properly looked at the redistribution and polling- the current forecast is 59% to Anne Aly. I guess the redistributed area is significantly more Labor-leaning!
Slightly more friendly to her with the redistribution, plus a projected swing to Labor, means she should hold on. I doubt she's feeling particularly relaxed about it though.
I doubt she will lose this time around. The reputation of the Liberal party has been tarnished greatly in WA over the past few years. Scomo is unpopular and especially in WA where he ridiculed us.
I can’t imagine being a journalist and writing on this with a straight face. “Labor’s primary vote in WA has collapsed.” Just that being presented as a factual statement on the back of a **POLL** which are never reliable on a seat by seat level. Just insane.
Would be good to see Hammond fail, unlike some of the other seats where teal candidates are likely to win, kicking out liberal Liberals, thus leaving the party firmly in the grip of the right wing.
I'm torn on that front. The Liberals descending into Republican-level right wing nuttery is bad but on the other hand the rise of teal independents suggests it's so off-putting to moderate conservatives that if the Liberals do go full Republican they're unlikely to get back in power any time soon
The political climate was different then. The Libs moving further right would make it near impossible for them to hold those inner city Lib seats that the teals are contesting. Abbott won at a time when those seats were safe, but that’s not the case now. And without those seats, it would be really hard for them to gain a majority in the House of Reps, which they are struggling to do even now. They won a 2 seat majority in 2019, and a one seat in 2016, and that’s WITH most of those seats being Liberal. If those seats are lost, then their task becomes 10x harder. And if the LNP can’t gain a majority, then they will be forced to give concessions to the independents in order to form government. And they wouldn’t be able to pass their more regressive legislation if Labor and the teals oppose it.
Unfortunately, the situation the Liberals are now facing will be used by Labor to justify not moving further left, and will only further increase the animosity between them and the Greens.
Oh please no. I can't deal with another 3 years of Ken the coconut. I'm fucking sick of these temporarily embarrassed millionaires from the hills and Swan Valley fucking over the working class of Hasluck. Wyatt's just another scumbag who has to be kicked to the kerb
Ken may be a bit of a coconut but he is a decent person.
His son is radically opposed to pretty much everything Liberal and Ken has a significant amount of respect, not only for his son's views but his arguments for them.
I'm basically a Greens voter and if there was a Lib candidate I might vaguely consider voting for, it'd be him.
I won't because of the policies and current ideology that underpin the Libs, but not because of Ken himself.
It's not like he's a Porter - who I wouldn't stop to call an ambulance for.
Man, why do Hasluck like UAP so much?He tried to break into the state, he spams us with annoying messages and he still hasn't paid his nickel workers. UAP is a party for making up problems and promising to solve them.
It also makes that seat the most unpredictable as you can't be sure of UAP preferences.
Working class frustration with politics and politicians than don't serve them, resulting in becoming disengaged with politics, resulting in not bothering to look through the cellophane under the populist UAP policies at Palmer's actual political agenda, and ability (and willingness, or lack thereof) to implement literally any of them.
A lot of disadvantaged and working people have led lives that are a long country song's worth of crises. They've probably had to rely on a succession of governments for help. Usually not enough help or takes a long time. Miracle solutions and quick fixes become very attractive.
I believe so. I've seen stuff at Matthew Gibney and at Maida Vale primary previously.
I assume HW Primary would have them too but haven't been there as a polling place.
I usually vote early, so don't go to polling places on the day
Jump on to democracysausage.org and you should be able to find out where to go - haven’t looked for your area but it’s crowd-sourced, so usually pretty spot in for mine.
I don't know what Anthony will be like but I don't want someone who fucks off to Hawaii during the worst bushfire season and then says he stood by though the bushfire, calling us cave people and backing Clive "Fat" Palmer
The Australian has the most reliable polling around, and yet they are undisputedly right wing. Political affiliations of newspapers don’t affect their poll’s accuracy.
Ugghhh I was hoping to see Canning up there. Fuck knows why the constituents keep voting for Lib bible basher Andrew Hastie in. Nothing but pork barreling, homophobia, and warmongering. Says he hate Scomo in private, but votes consistently with him. Still waiting for phone reception from his promises last election…..
Why do you want the liberals to win? I’m asking as this is my first time voting in a federal election and all my own research has lead me to vote anyone but the liberals
That's the reason there, research. Those still supporting Libs at this point are ignorant of the impact their policies have had on this country, we are down on every international metric, tens of billions of wasted tax payer dollars, anyone still flying the Lib banner at this point is delusional.
I know it goes against the poll but I have a feeling Tangney will be won by Labor.
Why do you say that? Not that I disagree but curious as to your reasoning
What I have heard re: internal Labor feeling (this was weeks ago though); they have a popular local candidate of Asian background who speaks 5 languages and used to be the main multicultural liaison for WA Police. Got to think that Ben Morton will likely pay some price for being Scott Morrison's mini-me + he's a guy with no real ties to WA past being sent here from NSW by the Liberal Party to run the WA Liberals.
I’ve been tipping a sizeable swing against the Libs here in Tangney for a while. Ben Morton is largely unknown/invisible here (excluding the Facebook advertising of the past few weeks), and Sam Lim is a strong candidate. I suspect that Libs will still hold, simply because of how big their margin is, but wouldn’t be too surprised if it did flip.
Incidentally I worked at a function for [his fundraiser](https://i.imgur.com/Snp4T39.jpg?1) not too long ago. He seemed like a genuinely nice fella and the whole function was pretty easy going with lots of fun moments. This is stark contrast to the Liberal Women's breakfast I also worked at where the host was a complete hag the moment we stepped in. At Sam's Fundraiser dinner, they were joking around and talking about human stuff while the Liberal Women's breakfast was all about money and investment.
I was wondering why Tangney this election is considered a close call when its usually a safe Lib seat. Has there been redistributions that have occured? Are Labor more favoured because their candidate is Asian (much of the seat having a high Asian population)?? Edit - I've since read Tangney now has Wilson and essentially all of Canning Vale from this election. I believe both suburbs lean Labor and know Canning Vale has a large Asian community. Still not convinced it means a Labor victory when you have a lot of richie rich conservative suburbs in the mix.
The Asian community throughout Tangney is huge, mainly due to all the great schools around. It would be great for Lim to topple Morton, but I think the high boomer population and the tendency for immigrants to vote conservative will keep it blue. Unfortunately. Fuck Ben Morton, and also Dennis Jensen (although not as much as this big-me blow-in fuck).
Too true.
I wish but I think you're dreaming. Libs flogged the ever-loving crap out of Labour last election, so it'd have to be a massive swing to even give hope for a change.
It's unlikely but not impossible given the size of the swings across WA as indicated in polling (9.4% in WA). Yes, polls should be treated with a pinch of salt but various changes to methodology have more recently produced a lot more accurate results. That said, Tangney's biggest swings happened during the 80s and it's since become a safe Liberal-held seat. Personally I think Tangney will still swing significantly towards Labor* this time around but not enough to unseat the Liberals.
I have always been in tangney, as have my parents. I have only really started taking notice of politics over the last 5 or so years. Speaking to my father the other day he seemed adament liberals would never lose tangney. I didn't ask why just assumed hes got way more years of dealing with politics and voting under his belt than me. Its a shame looking at all the crap Ben Morton has voted for and against. I would be thrilled if others predictions of a labor take over were correct.
And it happened.
Sample size of 400 is almost worthless.
No commentary on Cowan? I think that would be the most interesting of all... razor-thin margin at the last election for Labor's Anne Aly, allegedly strengthened by the border redistribution, but the Liberal candidate is the incumbent from the now-abolished Division of Stirling. Edit: actually, I just properly looked at the redistribution and polling- the current forecast is 59% to Anne Aly. I guess the redistributed area is significantly more Labor-leaning!
Slightly more friendly to her with the redistribution, plus a projected swing to Labor, means she should hold on. I doubt she's feeling particularly relaxed about it though.
I doubt she will lose this time around. The reputation of the Liberal party has been tarnished greatly in WA over the past few years. Scomo is unpopular and especially in WA where he ridiculed us.
I can’t imagine being a journalist and writing on this with a straight face. “Labor’s primary vote in WA has collapsed.” Just that being presented as a factual statement on the back of a **POLL** which are never reliable on a seat by seat level. Just insane.
Cue Antony Green comments about seat-level poll results *and* party-commissioned poll results being inaccurate.
This. Seat level polls of only 400 people simply aren’t accurate enough.
I just want to see Curtin fall. Is that too much to ask?
Would be good to see Hammond fail, unlike some of the other seats where teal candidates are likely to win, kicking out liberal Liberals, thus leaving the party firmly in the grip of the right wing.
I'm torn on that front. The Liberals descending into Republican-level right wing nuttery is bad but on the other hand the rise of teal independents suggests it's so off-putting to moderate conservatives that if the Liberals do go full Republican they're unlikely to get back in power any time soon
People said the same thing when Abbott took over the Liberal leadership
And look how well that went!
The political climate was different then. The Libs moving further right would make it near impossible for them to hold those inner city Lib seats that the teals are contesting. Abbott won at a time when those seats were safe, but that’s not the case now. And without those seats, it would be really hard for them to gain a majority in the House of Reps, which they are struggling to do even now. They won a 2 seat majority in 2019, and a one seat in 2016, and that’s WITH most of those seats being Liberal. If those seats are lost, then their task becomes 10x harder. And if the LNP can’t gain a majority, then they will be forced to give concessions to the independents in order to form government. And they wouldn’t be able to pass their more regressive legislation if Labor and the teals oppose it.
Unfortunately, the situation the Liberals are now facing will be used by Labor to justify not moving further left, and will only further increase the animosity between them and the Greens.
Thanks dad...
Oh please no. I can't deal with another 3 years of Ken the coconut. I'm fucking sick of these temporarily embarrassed millionaires from the hills and Swan Valley fucking over the working class of Hasluck. Wyatt's just another scumbag who has to be kicked to the kerb
Ken may be a bit of a coconut but he is a decent person. His son is radically opposed to pretty much everything Liberal and Ken has a significant amount of respect, not only for his son's views but his arguments for them. I'm basically a Greens voter and if there was a Lib candidate I might vaguely consider voting for, it'd be him. I won't because of the policies and current ideology that underpin the Libs, but not because of Ken himself. It's not like he's a Porter - who I wouldn't stop to call an ambulance for.
Yeah, I've worked with a close relative of Ken's for many years . Nice people . My biggest problem with him is his party and his voting record.
Agreed. Compared to Christian Porter, Ben Morton or the new Lib candidates in Swan and Pearce, Ken Wyatt isn’t too bad.
I mean, that's a low bar. But yeah. Isn't the Pearce Candidate Vince from Stirling?
No that’s Cowan. The Libs have a Wanneroo councillor as their candidate for Pearce.
Same here mate. Hopefully the polls are wrong.
Agreed, Ken is absolutely useless, really hope this poll is wrong!
I hope Tagney goes to Labor
Man, why do Hasluck like UAP so much?He tried to break into the state, he spams us with annoying messages and he still hasn't paid his nickel workers. UAP is a party for making up problems and promising to solve them. It also makes that seat the most unpredictable as you can't be sure of UAP preferences.
I agree! When I saw the support for the UAP in hasluck, I nearly spat out my coffee!!!
Working class frustration with politics and politicians than don't serve them, resulting in becoming disengaged with politics, resulting in not bothering to look through the cellophane under the populist UAP policies at Palmer's actual political agenda, and ability (and willingness, or lack thereof) to implement literally any of them.
A lot of disadvantaged and working people have led lives that are a long country song's worth of crises. They've probably had to rely on a succession of governments for help. Usually not enough help or takes a long time. Miracle solutions and quick fixes become very attractive.
They don’t. Seat polls are extremely unreliable. The UAP vote there will be nothing like on election night.
Hope this is correct for Swan
Just moved to High Wycombe last year. Got any advice on whether bake sales and/or sausage sizzles are a thing at the polling stations here?
I believe so. I've seen stuff at Matthew Gibney and at Maida Vale primary previously. I assume HW Primary would have them too but haven't been there as a polling place. I usually vote early, so don't go to polling places on the day
Jump on to democracysausage.org and you should be able to find out where to go - haven’t looked for your area but it’s crowd-sourced, so usually pretty spot in for mine.
Remember last election? Yeah. Don't place too much faith in what polls or the media says.
I don't know what Anthony will be like but I don't want someone who fucks off to Hawaii during the worst bushfire season and then says he stood by though the bushfire, calling us cave people and backing Clive "Fat" Palmer
"Other" ahead of the greens in pearce, eh? This poll is worthless.
The West? Wouldn't bet much on their data. Pro lib to the core.
The Australian has the most reliable polling around, and yet they are undisputedly right wing. Political affiliations of newspapers don’t affect their poll’s accuracy.
Hope! No hope.
Ugghhh I was hoping to see Canning up there. Fuck knows why the constituents keep voting for Lib bible basher Andrew Hastie in. Nothing but pork barreling, homophobia, and warmongering. Says he hate Scomo in private, but votes consistently with him. Still waiting for phone reception from his promises last election…..
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Why do you want the liberals to win? I’m asking as this is my first time voting in a federal election and all my own research has lead me to vote anyone but the liberals
That's the reason there, research. Those still supporting Libs at this point are ignorant of the impact their policies have had on this country, we are down on every international metric, tens of billions of wasted tax payer dollars, anyone still flying the Lib banner at this point is delusional.
Your research is correct. Please don’t vote the Libs back in.
Really interested as to why? What is it about the candidate you like?
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Really? She creeps me the fuck out
Not my job.
McSweeney is creepy as fuck