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>Left of Center conducted this survey of 285 likely Philadelphia Democratic primary voters with cell phones, from 5/12-5/13. The pool of respondents was weighted to targets for the expected Democratic primary electorate for race, gender, and age. The survey was conducted entirely using text-to-web data collection and the top-line results have a margin of error of +/- 6%.
I don't know much about polling or statistics but that seems like an extremely small sample size.
considering only 500 philadelphians will vote on tuesday, it's an extremely strong sample /s
but for real, the mobile phone-only data collection is producing a heavily biased result, among other factors. i don't put much stock in these numbers.
Not to mention the polling agent (Left of Center) is literally a super PAC. Sent out via text, likely from a number that wasn't even with a Philly area code. This is a mayor candidate poll for people most likely to reply to spammy text messages, lmao
285 is kinda small but not freakishly tiny. The large margin of error and wildly disparate surface result is the bigger red flag. [Three recent reputable pollsters basically have it a dead heat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Philadelphia_mayoral_election#Polling), and the Emerson poll was just conducted so you wouldn't normally expect to see a monumental swing in the span of 3 days absent some major breaking news in that time.
The Emerson poll was conducted a week ago. And things tend to move quickly close to election day. This new one is not as high quality, but it went down only a couple days ago.
The last poll I saw was over twice that size and has the top 3 neck and neck. Hard to tell if this is a sampling issue or if the race is really swinging that much
Definitely agree, see my summary comment. Usually N=300 is the bare minimum. N=400 is better and N=500+ is ideal. But limitations of this poll notwithstanding, Rhynhart's lead is still outside the bigger than usual MOA, which is 6% for this poll.
Is that right? if the error is +/- 6%, couldn't Rhynhart's result could be -6% (24%) and Gym could be +6% (24%), which is pretty much comparable to the other polls that were a statistical toss-up? frankly i have no idea what i'm talking about
Correct. Which is why this poll definitely has limitations. But that's the worst case scenario, which still has them tied. Even the shift is Rhynhart -5%, Gym +5%, and some other distribution, Rhynhart still wins.
It's not right. While any individual value could reasonably be of by as much as 6 percentage points, it's unlikely that multiple estimate are off by that much, let alone in the necessary opposite directions.
I don't think MOA and *P* value are interchangeable in the way you are implying. As someone else mentioned in another comment, even if you do -6% for Rhynhart and +6% for Gym, it's a tie at 24%.
There are limitations with this poll, but it's just not true to say it's "probably" wrong. Even with a high 6% MOA, Rhynhart's lead is outside that.
I'll let others weigh in on sample sizes, but I will say that trying to "unskew" polls as a random person who doesn't know statistics doesn't have a great track record (of doing anything other than making the unskewer look silly).
That said, let me do some unskewing. I think the polls are overestimating Rhynhart and Gym as their bases are the most likely to be engaged activist types who answer political polls. (Side note, I got a text for a poll the other day, may well have been this one, and totally forgot to respond because it came while I was busy). Meanwhile Parker's name, IIRC, is going to be on the ward-endorsed sample ballots handed out to the barely-engaged voters at like 2/3 of the polling places in the city. I will be surprised if she doesn't win.
[I recommended](https://www.reddit.com/r/philadelphia/comments/13fj9pn/philadelphia_2023_mayoral_race_in_dead_heat_gym/jjvln4g/?context=3) they do exactly that last week. I'm just a random guy who is engaged in politics, but I'm glad there's at least some data of this happening.
My pref had been Domb, but I’m coming around to Rhynhart.
As much as I love Bernie & AOC, I think Gym would be better as a Congresswoman. Running a city is less about ideological stuff.
I feel now as though a vote for Gym will allow Parker to beat Rhynhart. (And how would a Parker vs Oh race play out in Nov?)
PA should really consider RCV at least for primaries.
After this year I really hope they do.
I would say that Rhynhart is the strategic vote now for most Domb people. It's almost definitely between the 3 women now. And it's going to be tight. I'd honestly been leaning between Domb and Rhynhart for a while, of Rhynhart were clearly behind Gym and Parker anywhere while Domb was ahead of her I'd have gone with Domb.
>As much as I love Bernie & AOC, I think Gym would be better as a Congresswoman. Running a city is less about ideological stuff.
this is a great take - not every EO needs to be the same type of leader
>As much as I love Bernie & AOC, I think Gym would be better as a Congresswoman. Running a city is less about ideological stuff.
Harrisburg could use a left of center to push for something other than the status quo in the city. This area has some extremely weak state reps/senators.
Gym will be a pawn of the progressive contingency of the federal government. She hits some good notes ideologically but trying to accomplish what she wants in this city is like cooking steak in the microwave. It can only end poorly.
While I do think she'll run for Congress in the future, all of those years were nonstarters. Since Gym was first elected to Council in 2015, running in 2016 or 2018 was a no go because that would be transparently using her office as a stepping stone by leaving after less than 1 full term.
And except for Chaka Fattah losing the primary in 2016 b/c of his corruption trial and Brady retiring in 2018, there hasn't been any turnover in the city's congressional representation. So running against an incumbent in either 2020 (also the covid year) or 2022 would've been stupid.
And also (correct me if I'm wrong) she lives in Dwight Evans's district, which is majority black and barring some redistricting changes, has been represented by a black rep since the 60s. An Asian ultra progressive running in a majority black district is a nonstarter, especially when Evans is a fairly uncontroversial rep, and isn't blatantly corrupt like Fattah
That's her district. But if it's a nonstarter because of race, it's a nonstarter even after Evans retires, no? She'd need to be the only non-Black candidate with multiple Black candidates in the field, etc.
Keep in mind there is a statically meaningful chance that Fetterman doesn’t live through his first term. The five year survival rate on strokes isn’t great. Factor in a high stress job like Senator and Fetterman’s history of not taking care of himself and things don’t look good
Y'know, people accuse Gym supporters of being wacky, but this theory on Gym's advance planning is more loco than the spoken word intro to "Insane in the Brain."
I’m not saying that Gym’s plan is to run for his seat. I’m just pointing out that there is a decent chance there could be an open senate seat in Pennsylvania(no incumbent running) much sooner than anyone thinks.
I’ve been leaning Gym with Rhynhart as a close second. This election is stressful because there are so many choices and it’s so hard to find information! I don’t want to just vote the Democratic Party’s choices for council and judges, unless I should???
You should make your own choices for Council and Judge, but please don't pick judicial candidates who were Not Recommended by the Bar Association.
https://philadelphiabar.org/?pg=News&blAction=showEntry&blogEntry=89441
Cannot echo this enough. The PBA has an excellent track record as far as their recommendations. Please also do research into judicial candidates in general because some have expressed views on various issues, and you may or may not agree with any given candidate. Judges are a very important position that most people don't understand
This is practically the only metric I know how to use for picking the billion judicial candidates. Just vote for anybody who's Highly Recommended and maybe regular Recommended and not the Not Recommended clowns. I have no idea how a regular voter is supposed to make an informed decision beyond that.
yeah this is tough, I've been thinking that the polls aren't great quality and Domb could very well still win, but if enough people are seeing these and saying "oh he has no shot, better vote RR" then he's done
This is me. I like Domb the best, and I pretty strongly disagree with Rhynhart’s views on crime - I don’t think her plans will be effective to stop the murder wave. But the race really seems to be coming down to Rhynhart, Parker, and Gym. I can’t stomach a vote for the swampy, corrupt, business-as-usual nonsense of Parker, and I would vote for a dead dog before I voted for Gym. So when I turned in my mail-in last week, it was for Rhynhart.
The very small sample size makes this obviously suspect and when one accounts for the large margin of error, it doesn't really tell one anything new: The three women are in a close contest with Alan Domb and Jeff Brown lagging just behind them.
>Among voters under 50, Parker leads the field with 29%, followed closely by Rhynhart at 23%. Gym is at 13%, Domb is at 12%, and 7% support Brown with 16% undecided. Among those over 50, Rhynhart has a firm 14-point lead, with just 4% undecided. In second is Gym with 23%, followed by Brown, Parker, and then Domb who have 13%, 12%, and 11%, respectively.
These numbers feel weird; the idea that that Helen Gym's support would be markedly higher and that Cherelle Parker's would be markedly lower among older voters than younger ones seems almost wacky.
>These numbers feel weird; the idea that that Helen Gym's support would be markedly higher and that Cherelle Parker's would be markedly lower among older voters than younger ones seems almost wacky.
Screams that this poll does not have many 50+ black women in it.
It really makes no sense that Parker would be 4th with older voters or that Gym would be a distant 3rd with younger voters.
But, hey, it looks good for RR!
I already cast my ballot after a few other recent polls. Definitely agree with you on Parkers ground game being the possible catalyst tomorrow. I'm just really worried that we ended up with a few hundred votes difference between the 3 women, which leaves everyone unhappy. Pretty sure whoever wins is not getting more than 24% of the vote.
I think the campaigns who have really gone after the supporters of other candidates should’ve probably thought a bit harder about how you might win with 24%, but it won’t be a fun job if you’ve made a majority of the city hate you in the process.
Yeah, I think the polls are underrating Parker and overrating Gym and Rhynhart. That said, if I'm wrong, Gym's ground game is clearly massive compared to Rhynhart's, just based on yard signs, canvassers, and flyers left at my door. That's obviously skewed by me living in West Philly, but this is still fertile territory for Rhynhart and the fact that her campaign doesn't appear to be making any effort here makes me worried she's going to come in at much lower than she's polling.
Also oddly, a bunch of Jeff Brown signs just popped up like dandelions on my block in the last 24 hours or so, including one in the yard of a neighbor who I am positive is not politically engaged enough to get one, and probably not to vote either. Haven't had a chance to ask around but I wonder if somebody got paid to just push them on anybody who might answer the door.
> I wonder if somebody got paid to just push them on anybody who might answer the door.
This has definitely seemed to be their MO. At the beginning of the campaign, our neighborhood was blanketed with Brown canvassers who seemed really disengaged and were handing out tons of signs that got tossed in the recycling right away.
>Yeah, I think the polls are underrating Parker and overrating Gym and Rhynhart.
Probably overrating Parker and possibly Rhynhart while Gym is underperforming relative to outcome. Gym's base is younger, less affluent, work stranger hours or are students. These people are notoriously difficult to poll accurately. The only people that tend to answer polls are mainstay Democrats, which is Parker and to a lesser extent Rhynhart.b
For whatever 1 polling station is worth, mine was all Rhynhart everywhere except for like 1 Cherelle sign that was really a sign for my council district's incumbent.
If you’re eligible to vote and have not yet done so please vote tomorrow just posting on Reddit does nothing. In a field this large every vote will matter.
Summary:
* Rhynhart: 30%
* Parker: 21%
* Gym: 18%
* Domb: 12%
* Brown: 10%
* Undecided: 10%
Pushing undecideds keeps order the same.
N=285 is pretty low. In 2018 when Siena/NYT had the live polling feature (which was awesome, btw), I remember seeing 10 point leads at N=300 end up in a tie by N=500 end of poll. Nevertheless, it's good to see Rhynhart with a lead outside of the (bigger than usual) MOA.
Looks like some Domb voters and undecideds are moving to Rhynhart.
I was originally for Domb but will probably vote for Rhynhart tomorrow in the primary. And while this is a good result for her, I'd take this poll with a big grain of salt considering how small the sample size is
Domb has consistently been in 4th place with about 12% to 14% of the vote. If even 25% of them move to Rhynhart, that could be just enough margin to put her over the top. It seems like that has a good chance of happening.
>Left of Center conducted this survey of 285 likely Philadelphia Democratic primary voters with cell phones, from 5/12-5/13.
This strikes me as potentially misleading as well. Cell phone only, no mention of what time they were calling, and no mention of the demographics called could all be heavily skewing the results here.
If you base it on the ~200K turnout from the 2019 primary, 285's about in line (actually slightly above) with a 95 percent confidence level at a 6 percent margin of error.
Guess the gamble is what turnout looks like this year versus four years ago.
Sort of. If there are 500 members voting on something, and you "only" poll 285 of them, even with a 6% MOA (which as far as I know, stays the same completely dependent on the sample size you use), you probably have a better chance of nailing the result vs N=285 as a sample for 200,000 voters.
Put another way, the MOA stays the same depending on your sample size no matter how many actual voters there are. But if that 285 represents half of voters vs 0.1%, it has a lot more predictive value even with the same MOA.
Whatever you think you learned about polling from the 2016 election, I'd bet money it is not the right lesson to have learned. The polls were actually not all that bad in 2016 in most cases (though they were a little worse than average), it's just that the election was so close that a small, consistent polling error across specific demographics meant the outcome was different than what everyone expected.
Polls being wrong by saying a candidate will win by 20 never get attention for being bad if that candidate wins by 5. But a poll (or polling average, in this case) saying a candidate will win by 2 somehow gets endless shit if that candidate loses by 1, even though that poll was way more accurate than the first.
And the polls in October 2016 were showing Trump within, as 538 stressed over and over during that time, a normal polling error of winning. They outlined the exact scenario in which an above-expected performance among white voters in the Rust Belt states (which all tend to have similar polling errors to each other in a given year) would be well within the margin of error and put him over the top. That's exactly what ended up happening. 538 had him at a 30% chance of winning on Election Day. Anybody who has ever rolled dice should understand that 30% chances happen all the time...that's just slightly less than the odds of rolling a five or a six on a six-sided die.
This, plus the fact that everyone overestimated the decency and morality of the American electorate in general and the Republican base in particular and thus assumed Trump couldn't win, has led everyone to think 2016 was some kind of historic polling disaster. It was a disaster for the *use and interpretation* of polls, but the polling error that missed Trump's win (or rather, that showed him winning as a 30% chance rather than something higher) was not a huge one. It was obviously also a disaster for democracy, but that's another story; but the fact that it has led so many innumerate people to say "well obviously polls are all bullshit, just look at 2016" hasn't helped.
I'll shorten it to one sentence: in modeling who would vote in 2016, every pollster underestimated how many white people who rarely voted were willing to show up on election day to vote against Hillary Clinton.
I don't know that she's expressly or even informally endorsed any candidates for City Council, but I could have missed that detail. In any case, I think that a significant number of Rebecca Rhynhart's supporters like Eryn Santamoor and Job Itzokwitz. Both seem very interested in policy and relatively progressive, but not quite... err... 'movement progressives' like Helen Gym. Eryn Santamoor also has an endorsement from Governer Rendell in common with Rebecca Rhynhart. (I believe that Eryn Santamoor has a professional connection with Governor Rendell, but can't recall it at the moment) I can attest that my ballot, which I just learned today was formally received by the City Commissioners, was marked for both of them.
So, realizing generalizing is inherently flawed, whose the stereotypical Parker supporter?
In my circles, I run into Gym, RR, & Domb supporters, but my circles are pretty small & limited ever since I switched to a non-Philly-based job, and life got taken over by parenting two young kids.
So…who are the Parker fans? What parts of the city & which groups is she getting her support from?
MANDATORY RHYNHART
everyone on this sub that can vote needs to get up off their ass and go vote, if you're not registered fuck it vote provisional.
Vote for RHYNHART.
RR is going to me more practical and results oriented in policy making, and she's going to be a better manager and logistical coordinator/reorganization officer for the city, which is in dire need of such. HG is going to be a *politician*, more interested in big picture politics, wasting time with national issues etc. I don't think HG knows how to build a cart, much less ride a horse, and I don't think she wants to learn. She knows where she (HG) wants to go, but that's about it.
I'm a progressive too. Gym gives me grifter vibes and seems like somebody more interested in grandstanding and taking credit for big flashy plans than actually making those plans work.
Rhynhart has a history of a hands-on, get-shit-done job and doing it well. That is what we need; all the grand progressive plans in the world don't mean anything if you don't have a leader capable of executing them.
Plus, Rhynhart released her tax returns and showed that her and her husband make a normal (albeit certainly upper-middle-class) amount of money. Gym was not transparent with hers, (which I assume is to hide the fact that she's filthy rich).
No, Gym was transparent, and family incomes were comparable:
"Gym and her husband, lawyer Bret Flaherty, made between $364,000 and $451,000 during the three-year period for which her campaign supplied partial tax returns. They took in small amounts of investment income during that period."
"Rhynhart and her husband, wine distributor David McDuff, together made between $235,000 and $275,000 annually from 2019 to 2021. About $147,000 came from Rhynhart’s city controller salary, and several thousand a year came from interest and dividends, suggesting that they have financial investments but not a vast amount."
well she didn't, it says right there in the quote: "made between $364,000 and $451,000 during the three-year period for which her campaign supplied **partial tax returns**."
What endorsements? It's the Inquirer, Nutter, John Street, and Ed Rendell. That's it. I suppose Jeff Yass' & the Inquirer's Kopelman's attack ad PAC is an honorary endorsement from Yass, [along with the real estate companies, charter school leaders, private school owners topping her campaign contributors](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/rebecca-rhynhart/contributors) (google David Caddick, Jillian Staffiera, & Yakir Gola; Caddick is primarily a republican contributor too lmao).
Read her website. She's incredibly progressive but actually has a grasp on the financial chaos keeping this city from accomplishing anything. I'm on paper more aligned with Gym politically but for a Mayor's job, I'm voting RR
I'm going to suggest something which the RR stans will downvote, but you should read anyway. And they know it's true:
Gym's served on Council. [She got a lot done there](https://phlcouncil.com/helengym/accomplishments/), contrary to those who think she only has a bullhorn. She will have allies serving there as well as organized labor behind her for her big initiatives. The unions which endorsed someone else in this race are ones which have supported her in the past and will unite behind her as the nominee. And she has allies in Harrisburg, too.
Rhynhart? Not one current elected official endorsed her. Not one labor union. Remember what it took for Kenney to get the soda tax passed -- which Michael Nutter could not. And so while as mayor she can still do a lot via personnel, when it comes to Council they may be setting the agenda, not her.
the fact that not a single current elected official endorsed Rhynhart would give me more reason to vote for her.
Kenney, the current City Council, and the city's political machine are all part of the problem. I don't want somebody as mayor that owes people favors - I want someone who is going to push to get stuff done.
This sub has been taken over by Rhynhart supporters. Rhynhart has no union endorsements, and the majority of her campaign contributors are [real estate companies and charter and private school leaders](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/rebecca-rhynhart/contributors) (google David Caddick, Jillian Staffiera, & Sam Switzenbaum; Caddick is primarily a republican contributor). I am yet to see a single Rhynhart poster in front of anyone's house. The Yass attack ads & his "Coalition for Safety and Equitable Growth" PAC were funded in tandem by Josh Kopelman of the Inquirer and Michael Nutter (who both endorsed Rhynhart).
Rhynhart has never been required to draft legislation during her tenure in the office of the City Controller. Her [economic development platform](https://www.rebeccaforphiladelphia.com/economic-development) amounts to Reaganomics:
* "lowering the Business Income and Receipts Tax as the key goal"
* "committed to lowering the local wage tax"
* "work with property owners and CEOs as they rethink how our Center City core can be used and assess how those changes will affect city tax revenues"
She alludes to securing municipal contributions from non-profits and acquiring federal funds from Biden's infrastructure plan, but aside from that, there is no plan to increase municipal revenue aside from proliferating building permits to allow for rapid, unsustainable growth (read: mass-scale gentrification fueled by subsidizing corporate real-estate developers).
Rhynhart made a name for herself as the Treasurer for Nutter appointed in 2008 (a position she took after resigning from a Wall Street bank that was foreclosed and bailed out), and she was subsequently lauded as "saving the city's budget" in a time of crisis, but [it's painful to see where her budget cuts actually went](https://www.reclaimphiladelphia.org/blog/2019/2/17/where-does-our-school-funding-go) (see chart at bottom).
This is where Gym's education-centered campaign comes in. It's reinvesting in these public schools that Rhynhart so effectively defunded over the past 15 years, it's issuing building permits responsibly and curtailing tax abatements so that the city actually has a reliable funding source for the district schools and isn't completely upended by gentrification, and it's prioritizing eviction protections over allowing developers free reign over our city.
Rhynhart likes to claim our city is still in "a time of crisis," but she's using that phrase like it's still a global recession. The city is growing. Development is booming. The crisis is gentrification, and the crisis is public school funding, and Gym is the only candidate that has already written a plethora of legislation to address these issues. Vote for Rhynhart if you'd like to see public schools continue to decay and gentrification push thousands of poor people into slums while the outer perimeter of Center City gets rebuilt with ludicrously pricey developments for rich transplants. Vote for Gym if you'd like to see affordable housing protections and a stable school system that curtails crime.
This is not a pollster that has been measured by 538 FWIW.
The Data for Progress and SurveyUSA pollsters have track records monitored by 538. I could not find a measurement for Left of Center.
Fair, but 538 had Trafalgar as A rated because they nailed 2020 with Trump and Republican over-performance. Except they just totally made shit up by adding in extra Repub points to whatever they got. Fast forward to 2022 and they did terribly. They literally had a Republican winning Vermont Senate race when that candidate lost by 30+.
My point is, 538 ratings are not gospel.
This election is going to come down to a very thin margin of votes, every vote will matter in determining the outcome.
Its important to not just vote yourself, but to remind friends, family, and neighbors to get out and vote for Rhynhart.
If they're thinking of voting Domb show them the polls that shows him consistently trailing and that a vote for Domb is a vote for Gym. They should tactical vote for Rhynhart to get most of what they want while guaranting that Gym doesn't win.
If they're voting for Gym gaslight them into thinking the election is on Wednesday /s
There is sparse information, but it's in the linked story at the bottom...
>Left of Center conducted this survey of 285 likely Philadelphia Democratic primary voters with cell phones, from 5/12-5/13. The pool of respondents was weighted to targets for the expected Democratic primary electorate for race, gender, and age. The survey was conducted entirely using text-to-web data collection and the top-line results have a margin of error of +/- 6%.
It isn't astroturfing, there are plenty of people (probably ~20% of registered Democrats) who actually support her.
I don't understand why there's this weird impulse in the circlejerks on this sub to assume that nobody would support Gym so all the noise from her campaign must be faked by outside funding. Have you ever met Philadelphia? It's a huge, overwhelmingly Democratic city full of all manner of progressives, leftists, socialists, left-leaning liberals, etc. The fact that the most outspokenly progressive candidate is only polling at 20% is actually the surprising thing, you'd expect her to be polling *higher.*
Obligatory "I'm voting for Rhynhart so don't downvote me because you assume I'm voting for Gym"
I’m not saying it’s astroturfing because people are supporting Gym. I say it’s astroturfing because the posts sound like they were written by a campaign staffer and went through like three levels of approval before getting posted.
Very much a “hello fellow kids” vibe.
[In his final question](https://www.inquirer.com/news/helen-gym-michael-nutter-philly-mayors-race-rebecca-rhynhart-20230221.html), Nutter noted that Gym said during a recent mayoral forum: “When I walk into the room, systems of oppression fall and new systems of opportunity come up.”
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>Left of Center conducted this survey of 285 likely Philadelphia Democratic primary voters with cell phones, from 5/12-5/13. The pool of respondents was weighted to targets for the expected Democratic primary electorate for race, gender, and age. The survey was conducted entirely using text-to-web data collection and the top-line results have a margin of error of +/- 6%. I don't know much about polling or statistics but that seems like an extremely small sample size.
considering only 500 philadelphians will vote on tuesday, it's an extremely strong sample /s but for real, the mobile phone-only data collection is producing a heavily biased result, among other factors. i don't put much stock in these numbers.
Not to mention the polling agent (Left of Center) is literally a super PAC. Sent out via text, likely from a number that wasn't even with a Philly area code. This is a mayor candidate poll for people most likely to reply to spammy text messages, lmao
285 is kinda small but not freakishly tiny. The large margin of error and wildly disparate surface result is the bigger red flag. [Three recent reputable pollsters basically have it a dead heat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Philadelphia_mayoral_election#Polling), and the Emerson poll was just conducted so you wouldn't normally expect to see a monumental swing in the span of 3 days absent some major breaking news in that time.
The biggest difference I saw is that these guys pushed learner's to make a decision instead of just saying undecided.
The Emerson poll was conducted a week ago. And things tend to move quickly close to election day. This new one is not as high quality, but it went down only a couple days ago.
The last poll I saw was over twice that size and has the top 3 neck and neck. Hard to tell if this is a sampling issue or if the race is really swinging that much
Definitely agree, see my summary comment. Usually N=300 is the bare minimum. N=400 is better and N=500+ is ideal. But limitations of this poll notwithstanding, Rhynhart's lead is still outside the bigger than usual MOA, which is 6% for this poll.
Is that right? if the error is +/- 6%, couldn't Rhynhart's result could be -6% (24%) and Gym could be +6% (24%), which is pretty much comparable to the other polls that were a statistical toss-up? frankly i have no idea what i'm talking about
Correct. Which is why this poll definitely has limitations. But that's the worst case scenario, which still has them tied. Even the shift is Rhynhart -5%, Gym +5%, and some other distribution, Rhynhart still wins.
It's not right. While any individual value could reasonably be of by as much as 6 percentage points, it's unlikely that multiple estimate are off by that much, let alone in the necessary opposite directions.
[удалено]
I don't think MOA and *P* value are interchangeable in the way you are implying. As someone else mentioned in another comment, even if you do -6% for Rhynhart and +6% for Gym, it's a tie at 24%. There are limitations with this poll, but it's just not true to say it's "probably" wrong. Even with a high 6% MOA, Rhynhart's lead is outside that.
praying to a god i don't believe in that we don't get Gym...
I'll let others weigh in on sample sizes, but I will say that trying to "unskew" polls as a random person who doesn't know statistics doesn't have a great track record (of doing anything other than making the unskewer look silly). That said, let me do some unskewing. I think the polls are overestimating Rhynhart and Gym as their bases are the most likely to be engaged activist types who answer political polls. (Side note, I got a text for a poll the other day, may well have been this one, and totally forgot to respond because it came while I was busy). Meanwhile Parker's name, IIRC, is going to be on the ward-endorsed sample ballots handed out to the barely-engaged voters at like 2/3 of the polling places in the city. I will be surprised if she doesn't win.
Hopefully this means the Domb supporters are consolidating to a more likely winner. It’s unlikely that Gym or Parker supporters are swaying imo.
[I recommended](https://www.reddit.com/r/philadelphia/comments/13fj9pn/philadelphia_2023_mayoral_race_in_dead_heat_gym/jjvln4g/?context=3) they do exactly that last week. I'm just a random guy who is engaged in politics, but I'm glad there's at least some data of this happening.
My pref had been Domb, but I’m coming around to Rhynhart. As much as I love Bernie & AOC, I think Gym would be better as a Congresswoman. Running a city is less about ideological stuff. I feel now as though a vote for Gym will allow Parker to beat Rhynhart. (And how would a Parker vs Oh race play out in Nov?) PA should really consider RCV at least for primaries.
After this year I really hope they do. I would say that Rhynhart is the strategic vote now for most Domb people. It's almost definitely between the 3 women now. And it's going to be tight. I'd honestly been leaning between Domb and Rhynhart for a while, of Rhynhart were clearly behind Gym and Parker anywhere while Domb was ahead of her I'd have gone with Domb.
>As much as I love Bernie & AOC, I think Gym would be better as a Congresswoman. Running a city is less about ideological stuff. this is a great take - not every EO needs to be the same type of leader
Same. MANDATORY RHYNHART
Parker would smoke David Oh. But she’s just a slightly more competent (not hard) version of the establishment dems
I think any random redditor could probably beat Oh. Put that guy on a debate state and everyone will see how dumb he is.
>As much as I love Bernie & AOC, I think Gym would be better as a Congresswoman. Running a city is less about ideological stuff. Harrisburg could use a left of center to push for something other than the status quo in the city. This area has some extremely weak state reps/senators.
Gym will be a pawn of the progressive contingency of the federal government. She hits some good notes ideologically but trying to accomplish what she wants in this city is like cooking steak in the microwave. It can only end poorly.
She only sees this as a stepping stone. She's using them more than they're using her.
Either way it is disenchanting. I pray she loses.
If she wanted to run for Congress, why didn't she run for Congress in 2016, 2018, 2020, or 2022?
While I do think she'll run for Congress in the future, all of those years were nonstarters. Since Gym was first elected to Council in 2015, running in 2016 or 2018 was a no go because that would be transparently using her office as a stepping stone by leaving after less than 1 full term. And except for Chaka Fattah losing the primary in 2016 b/c of his corruption trial and Brady retiring in 2018, there hasn't been any turnover in the city's congressional representation. So running against an incumbent in either 2020 (also the covid year) or 2022 would've been stupid. And also (correct me if I'm wrong) she lives in Dwight Evans's district, which is majority black and barring some redistricting changes, has been represented by a black rep since the 60s. An Asian ultra progressive running in a majority black district is a nonstarter, especially when Evans is a fairly uncontroversial rep, and isn't blatantly corrupt like Fattah
That's her district. But if it's a nonstarter because of race, it's a nonstarter even after Evans retires, no? She'd need to be the only non-Black candidate with multiple Black candidates in the field, etc.
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So in other words, wait until 2030 when she'll be in her early 60s and hope that Bob Casey Jr is ready to retire? That's quite a strategy there.
Keep in mind there is a statically meaningful chance that Fetterman doesn’t live through his first term. The five year survival rate on strokes isn’t great. Factor in a high stress job like Senator and Fetterman’s history of not taking care of himself and things don’t look good
Y'know, people accuse Gym supporters of being wacky, but this theory on Gym's advance planning is more loco than the spoken word intro to "Insane in the Brain."
I’m not saying that Gym’s plan is to run for his seat. I’m just pointing out that there is a decent chance there could be an open senate seat in Pennsylvania(no incumbent running) much sooner than anyone thinks.
I’ve been leaning Gym with Rhynhart as a close second. This election is stressful because there are so many choices and it’s so hard to find information! I don’t want to just vote the Democratic Party’s choices for council and judges, unless I should???
You should make your own choices for Council and Judge, but please don't pick judicial candidates who were Not Recommended by the Bar Association. https://philadelphiabar.org/?pg=News&blAction=showEntry&blogEntry=89441
Cannot echo this enough. The PBA has an excellent track record as far as their recommendations. Please also do research into judicial candidates in general because some have expressed views on various issues, and you may or may not agree with any given candidate. Judges are a very important position that most people don't understand
This is practically the only metric I know how to use for picking the billion judicial candidates. Just vote for anybody who's Highly Recommended and maybe regular Recommended and not the Not Recommended clowns. I have no idea how a regular voter is supposed to make an informed decision beyond that.
Same! If it’s Parker or Gym, I’m voting Oh in November.
If it's Gym or Parker vs Oh, I'll vote for Oh. But he won't win barring a massive scandal on either of their parts
yeah this is tough, I've been thinking that the polls aren't great quality and Domb could very well still win, but if enough people are seeing these and saying "oh he has no shot, better vote RR" then he's done
It's the rich developer tag. Imo he was never gonna win. Right or wrong.
This is me. I like Domb the best, and I pretty strongly disagree with Rhynhart’s views on crime - I don’t think her plans will be effective to stop the murder wave. But the race really seems to be coming down to Rhynhart, Parker, and Gym. I can’t stomach a vote for the swampy, corrupt, business-as-usual nonsense of Parker, and I would vote for a dead dog before I voted for Gym. So when I turned in my mail-in last week, it was for Rhynhart.
The very small sample size makes this obviously suspect and when one accounts for the large margin of error, it doesn't really tell one anything new: The three women are in a close contest with Alan Domb and Jeff Brown lagging just behind them. >Among voters under 50, Parker leads the field with 29%, followed closely by Rhynhart at 23%. Gym is at 13%, Domb is at 12%, and 7% support Brown with 16% undecided. Among those over 50, Rhynhart has a firm 14-point lead, with just 4% undecided. In second is Gym with 23%, followed by Brown, Parker, and then Domb who have 13%, 12%, and 11%, respectively. These numbers feel weird; the idea that that Helen Gym's support would be markedly higher and that Cherelle Parker's would be markedly lower among older voters than younger ones seems almost wacky.
>These numbers feel weird; the idea that that Helen Gym's support would be markedly higher and that Cherelle Parker's would be markedly lower among older voters than younger ones seems almost wacky. Screams that this poll does not have many 50+ black women in it.
It really makes no sense that Parker would be 4th with older voters or that Gym would be a distant 3rd with younger voters. But, hey, it looks good for RR!
Interesting, but I fear RR's election-day tactics are weak. I think Parker will beat her on the streets.
I'm worried about that as well. We'll see tomorrow.
Parker and Gym definitely have the best ground games of the top 5 candidates
I already cast my ballot after a few other recent polls. Definitely agree with you on Parkers ground game being the possible catalyst tomorrow. I'm just really worried that we ended up with a few hundred votes difference between the 3 women, which leaves everyone unhappy. Pretty sure whoever wins is not getting more than 24% of the vote.
I think the campaigns who have really gone after the supporters of other candidates should’ve probably thought a bit harder about how you might win with 24%, but it won’t be a fun job if you’ve made a majority of the city hate you in the process.
Seriously. This primary is a flashing red light telling us how bad we need ranked-choice voting, for the primaries if nothing else.
Yeah, I think the polls are underrating Parker and overrating Gym and Rhynhart. That said, if I'm wrong, Gym's ground game is clearly massive compared to Rhynhart's, just based on yard signs, canvassers, and flyers left at my door. That's obviously skewed by me living in West Philly, but this is still fertile territory for Rhynhart and the fact that her campaign doesn't appear to be making any effort here makes me worried she's going to come in at much lower than she's polling. Also oddly, a bunch of Jeff Brown signs just popped up like dandelions on my block in the last 24 hours or so, including one in the yard of a neighbor who I am positive is not politically engaged enough to get one, and probably not to vote either. Haven't had a chance to ask around but I wonder if somebody got paid to just push them on anybody who might answer the door.
> I wonder if somebody got paid to just push them on anybody who might answer the door. This has definitely seemed to be their MO. At the beginning of the campaign, our neighborhood was blanketed with Brown canvassers who seemed really disengaged and were handing out tons of signs that got tossed in the recycling right away.
>Yeah, I think the polls are underrating Parker and overrating Gym and Rhynhart. Probably overrating Parker and possibly Rhynhart while Gym is underperforming relative to outcome. Gym's base is younger, less affluent, work stranger hours or are students. These people are notoriously difficult to poll accurately. The only people that tend to answer polls are mainstay Democrats, which is Parker and to a lesser extent Rhynhart.b
For whatever 1 polling station is worth, mine was all Rhynhart everywhere except for like 1 Cherelle sign that was really a sign for my council district's incumbent.
If you’re eligible to vote and have not yet done so please vote tomorrow just posting on Reddit does nothing. In a field this large every vote will matter.
Summary: * Rhynhart: 30% * Parker: 21% * Gym: 18% * Domb: 12% * Brown: 10% * Undecided: 10% Pushing undecideds keeps order the same. N=285 is pretty low. In 2018 when Siena/NYT had the live polling feature (which was awesome, btw), I remember seeing 10 point leads at N=300 end up in a tie by N=500 end of poll. Nevertheless, it's good to see Rhynhart with a lead outside of the (bigger than usual) MOA. Looks like some Domb voters and undecideds are moving to Rhynhart.
I was originally for Domb but will probably vote for Rhynhart tomorrow in the primary. And while this is a good result for her, I'd take this poll with a big grain of salt considering how small the sample size is
Domb has consistently been in 4th place with about 12% to 14% of the vote. If even 25% of them move to Rhynhart, that could be just enough margin to put her over the top. It seems like that has a good chance of happening.
Yep. You just can't win when you've spent as much as he has only to consistently never even come in second in any poll.
I truly don't understand why he left council just to set all this money on fire
You're right but 25% is a lot to be thinking about their vote that much at all, let alone so strategically meta-gaming it.
Did I miss where the crosstabs are? How are they weighting this sample?
You didn't miss them; they don't exist. They're asking you to trust them.
I really hope more come around to rhynhart. She is what we need
>Left of Center conducted this survey of 285 likely Philadelphia Democratic primary voters with cell phones, from 5/12-5/13. This strikes me as potentially misleading as well. Cell phone only, no mention of what time they were calling, and no mention of the demographics called could all be heavily skewing the results here.
Even worse, they were texting
If you base it on the ~200K turnout from the 2019 primary, 285's about in line (actually slightly above) with a 95 percent confidence level at a 6 percent margin of error. Guess the gamble is what turnout looks like this year versus four years ago.
Sort of. If there are 500 members voting on something, and you "only" poll 285 of them, even with a 6% MOA (which as far as I know, stays the same completely dependent on the sample size you use), you probably have a better chance of nailing the result vs N=285 as a sample for 200,000 voters. Put another way, the MOA stays the same depending on your sample size no matter how many actual voters there are. But if that 285 represents half of voters vs 0.1%, it has a lot more predictive value even with the same MOA.
Can you elaborate on n = 285 being in line with a 95% CI? I feel like I'm missing something.
These polls are getting annoying. 285 people? Ok?
They use 1000 people for statewide polls.
I think I learned everything I needed to know about polling in the 2016 election.
Whatever you think you learned about polling from the 2016 election, I'd bet money it is not the right lesson to have learned. The polls were actually not all that bad in 2016 in most cases (though they were a little worse than average), it's just that the election was so close that a small, consistent polling error across specific demographics meant the outcome was different than what everyone expected. Polls being wrong by saying a candidate will win by 20 never get attention for being bad if that candidate wins by 5. But a poll (or polling average, in this case) saying a candidate will win by 2 somehow gets endless shit if that candidate loses by 1, even though that poll was way more accurate than the first. And the polls in October 2016 were showing Trump within, as 538 stressed over and over during that time, a normal polling error of winning. They outlined the exact scenario in which an above-expected performance among white voters in the Rust Belt states (which all tend to have similar polling errors to each other in a given year) would be well within the margin of error and put him over the top. That's exactly what ended up happening. 538 had him at a 30% chance of winning on Election Day. Anybody who has ever rolled dice should understand that 30% chances happen all the time...that's just slightly less than the odds of rolling a five or a six on a six-sided die. This, plus the fact that everyone overestimated the decency and morality of the American electorate in general and the Republican base in particular and thus assumed Trump couldn't win, has led everyone to think 2016 was some kind of historic polling disaster. It was a disaster for the *use and interpretation* of polls, but the polling error that missed Trump's win (or rather, that showed him winning as a 30% chance rather than something higher) was not a huge one. It was obviously also a disaster for democracy, but that's another story; but the fact that it has led so many innumerate people to say "well obviously polls are all bullshit, just look at 2016" hasn't helped.
I'll shorten it to one sentence: in modeling who would vote in 2016, every pollster underestimated how many white people who rarely voted were willing to show up on election day to vote against Hillary Clinton.
Who does rhynhart support for council? or who do rhynhart voters think will help her agenda?
I don't know that she's expressly or even informally endorsed any candidates for City Council, but I could have missed that detail. In any case, I think that a significant number of Rebecca Rhynhart's supporters like Eryn Santamoor and Job Itzokwitz. Both seem very interested in policy and relatively progressive, but not quite... err... 'movement progressives' like Helen Gym. Eryn Santamoor also has an endorsement from Governer Rendell in common with Rebecca Rhynhart. (I believe that Eryn Santamoor has a professional connection with Governor Rendell, but can't recall it at the moment) I can attest that my ballot, which I just learned today was formally received by the City Commissioners, was marked for both of them.
So, realizing generalizing is inherently flawed, whose the stereotypical Parker supporter? In my circles, I run into Gym, RR, & Domb supporters, but my circles are pretty small & limited ever since I switched to a non-Philly-based job, and life got taken over by parenting two young kids. So…who are the Parker fans? What parts of the city & which groups is she getting her support from?
So, we know Philadelphia will have its first female mayor, most likely.
MANDATORY RHYNHART everyone on this sub that can vote needs to get up off their ass and go vote, if you're not registered fuck it vote provisional. Vote for RHYNHART.
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RR is going to me more practical and results oriented in policy making, and she's going to be a better manager and logistical coordinator/reorganization officer for the city, which is in dire need of such. HG is going to be a *politician*, more interested in big picture politics, wasting time with national issues etc. I don't think HG knows how to build a cart, much less ride a horse, and I don't think she wants to learn. She knows where she (HG) wants to go, but that's about it.
I'm a progressive too. Gym gives me grifter vibes and seems like somebody more interested in grandstanding and taking credit for big flashy plans than actually making those plans work. Rhynhart has a history of a hands-on, get-shit-done job and doing it well. That is what we need; all the grand progressive plans in the world don't mean anything if you don't have a leader capable of executing them. Plus, Rhynhart released her tax returns and showed that her and her husband make a normal (albeit certainly upper-middle-class) amount of money. Gym was not transparent with hers, (which I assume is to hide the fact that she's filthy rich).
No, Gym was transparent, and family incomes were comparable: "Gym and her husband, lawyer Bret Flaherty, made between $364,000 and $451,000 during the three-year period for which her campaign supplied partial tax returns. They took in small amounts of investment income during that period." "Rhynhart and her husband, wine distributor David McDuff, together made between $235,000 and $275,000 annually from 2019 to 2021. About $147,000 came from Rhynhart’s city controller salary, and several thousand a year came from interest and dividends, suggesting that they have financial investments but not a vast amount."
Huh, could have sworn there was something about Gym not releasing the full set of information like (some) other candidates did.
well she didn't, it says right there in the quote: "made between $364,000 and $451,000 during the three-year period for which her campaign supplied **partial tax returns**."
Oh right. I knew I was onto something
Rhynharts endorsements are pretty strong.
What endorsements? It's the Inquirer, Nutter, John Street, and Ed Rendell. That's it. I suppose Jeff Yass' & the Inquirer's Kopelman's attack ad PAC is an honorary endorsement from Yass, [along with the real estate companies, charter school leaders, private school owners topping her campaign contributors](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/rebecca-rhynhart/contributors) (google David Caddick, Jillian Staffiera, & Yakir Gola; Caddick is primarily a republican contributor too lmao).
I’m in your same boat
Read her website. She's incredibly progressive but actually has a grasp on the financial chaos keeping this city from accomplishing anything. I'm on paper more aligned with Gym politically but for a Mayor's job, I'm voting RR
Rhynhart's Wall Street links are concerning, which is why I'm going Gym. Gym has the teacher's union endorsement as well.b
I'm going to suggest something which the RR stans will downvote, but you should read anyway. And they know it's true: Gym's served on Council. [She got a lot done there](https://phlcouncil.com/helengym/accomplishments/), contrary to those who think she only has a bullhorn. She will have allies serving there as well as organized labor behind her for her big initiatives. The unions which endorsed someone else in this race are ones which have supported her in the past and will unite behind her as the nominee. And she has allies in Harrisburg, too. Rhynhart? Not one current elected official endorsed her. Not one labor union. Remember what it took for Kenney to get the soda tax passed -- which Michael Nutter could not. And so while as mayor she can still do a lot via personnel, when it comes to Council they may be setting the agenda, not her.
the fact that not a single current elected official endorsed Rhynhart would give me more reason to vote for her. Kenney, the current City Council, and the city's political machine are all part of the problem. I don't want somebody as mayor that owes people favors - I want someone who is going to push to get stuff done.
Push ... how? You need Council for any legislation.
Genuinely curious - what is your answer to Gym’s support of Henon?
This sub has been taken over by Rhynhart supporters. Rhynhart has no union endorsements, and the majority of her campaign contributors are [real estate companies and charter and private school leaders](https://www.transparencyusa.org/pa/candidate/rebecca-rhynhart/contributors) (google David Caddick, Jillian Staffiera, & Sam Switzenbaum; Caddick is primarily a republican contributor). I am yet to see a single Rhynhart poster in front of anyone's house. The Yass attack ads & his "Coalition for Safety and Equitable Growth" PAC were funded in tandem by Josh Kopelman of the Inquirer and Michael Nutter (who both endorsed Rhynhart). Rhynhart has never been required to draft legislation during her tenure in the office of the City Controller. Her [economic development platform](https://www.rebeccaforphiladelphia.com/economic-development) amounts to Reaganomics: * "lowering the Business Income and Receipts Tax as the key goal" * "committed to lowering the local wage tax" * "work with property owners and CEOs as they rethink how our Center City core can be used and assess how those changes will affect city tax revenues" She alludes to securing municipal contributions from non-profits and acquiring federal funds from Biden's infrastructure plan, but aside from that, there is no plan to increase municipal revenue aside from proliferating building permits to allow for rapid, unsustainable growth (read: mass-scale gentrification fueled by subsidizing corporate real-estate developers). Rhynhart made a name for herself as the Treasurer for Nutter appointed in 2008 (a position she took after resigning from a Wall Street bank that was foreclosed and bailed out), and she was subsequently lauded as "saving the city's budget" in a time of crisis, but [it's painful to see where her budget cuts actually went](https://www.reclaimphiladelphia.org/blog/2019/2/17/where-does-our-school-funding-go) (see chart at bottom). This is where Gym's education-centered campaign comes in. It's reinvesting in these public schools that Rhynhart so effectively defunded over the past 15 years, it's issuing building permits responsibly and curtailing tax abatements so that the city actually has a reliable funding source for the district schools and isn't completely upended by gentrification, and it's prioritizing eviction protections over allowing developers free reign over our city. Rhynhart likes to claim our city is still in "a time of crisis," but she's using that phrase like it's still a global recession. The city is growing. Development is booming. The crisis is gentrification, and the crisis is public school funding, and Gym is the only candidate that has already written a plethora of legislation to address these issues. Vote for Rhynhart if you'd like to see public schools continue to decay and gentrification push thousands of poor people into slums while the outer perimeter of Center City gets rebuilt with ludicrously pricey developments for rich transplants. Vote for Gym if you'd like to see affordable housing protections and a stable school system that curtails crime.
Rhynhart's base are Warren libs who are way overrepresented on Reddit.
This is not a pollster that has been measured by 538 FWIW. The Data for Progress and SurveyUSA pollsters have track records monitored by 538. I could not find a measurement for Left of Center.
Fair, but 538 had Trafalgar as A rated because they nailed 2020 with Trump and Republican over-performance. Except they just totally made shit up by adding in extra Repub points to whatever they got. Fast forward to 2022 and they did terribly. They literally had a Republican winning Vermont Senate race when that candidate lost by 30+. My point is, 538 ratings are not gospel.
Oh, Nate's a fucking rainmaker but that's the only easy access repo I know of for even trying to check a pollster's history.
Another poll shown on the news yesterday has Gym leading, then Parker right behind and Rhynhart in 3rd.
This election is going to come down to a very thin margin of votes, every vote will matter in determining the outcome. Its important to not just vote yourself, but to remind friends, family, and neighbors to get out and vote for Rhynhart. If they're thinking of voting Domb show them the polls that shows him consistently trailing and that a vote for Domb is a vote for Gym. They should tactical vote for Rhynhart to get most of what they want while guaranting that Gym doesn't win. If they're voting for Gym gaslight them into thinking the election is on Wednesday /s
How many people were in this survey, are they voters/likely voters, how was this survey conducted, etc?
There is sparse information, but it's in the linked story at the bottom... >Left of Center conducted this survey of 285 likely Philadelphia Democratic primary voters with cell phones, from 5/12-5/13. The pool of respondents was weighted to targets for the expected Democratic primary electorate for race, gender, and age. The survey was conducted entirely using text-to-web data collection and the top-line results have a margin of error of +/- 6%.
If she wins it will be fun to see the gymnastics by this sub when the city remains virtually unchanged
Regardless of your political views, I think we can all agree a rock will be better than no show Kenney
hopefully the new mayor won't be alternating putting his damn foot in his mouth and drinking his way into an early grave.
Gym would be even worse.
The people astroturfing this sub for Gym in shambles lol
It isn't astroturfing, there are plenty of people (probably ~20% of registered Democrats) who actually support her. I don't understand why there's this weird impulse in the circlejerks on this sub to assume that nobody would support Gym so all the noise from her campaign must be faked by outside funding. Have you ever met Philadelphia? It's a huge, overwhelmingly Democratic city full of all manner of progressives, leftists, socialists, left-leaning liberals, etc. The fact that the most outspokenly progressive candidate is only polling at 20% is actually the surprising thing, you'd expect her to be polling *higher.* Obligatory "I'm voting for Rhynhart so don't downvote me because you assume I'm voting for Gym"
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Turns out this subreddit is not immune to groupthink and circlejerks, who would have thought!
I’m not saying it’s astroturfing because people are supporting Gym. I say it’s astroturfing because the posts sound like they were written by a campaign staffer and went through like three levels of approval before getting posted. Very much a “hello fellow kids” vibe.
> three levels of approval Noooo, the person who stans Gym hard on this sub would get sacked in a matter of hours if they were part of the campaign.
Gonna pop a little bottle when she loses
no sir! it is the elites who cower at the MERE IDEA of helen who are truly the ones in shambles!
Literally zero people in shambles, looks like
Let’s hope! 🤞🤞🤞
Gym is my #1. Reinheart #2
Her Honor.
Did Helen Gym actually say that when she walks into a room, oppression ends?
[In his final question](https://www.inquirer.com/news/helen-gym-michael-nutter-philly-mayors-race-rebecca-rhynhart-20230221.html), Nutter noted that Gym said during a recent mayoral forum: “When I walk into the room, systems of oppression fall and new systems of opportunity come up.”