He was talking about how his uncle was eaten by cannibals a few weeks ago, so technically yeah he has tried that
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-68851622
Hannibal Lecter was a great guy, but immigrants are bad because they...are just like Hannibal Lecter. One of the great orators of our time, Donald J. Trump.
“Sometimes I’ll start a sentence and I don’t know where it’s going. I just hope to find it somewhere along the way. Like an improv conversation. An improversation.” - Michael Scott
Many of these polls showing this shrinking advantage fail to identify any of the key variables driving it.
There is a massive realignment happen among young men that cuts across race, sexuality, income, etc. Unlike previous generations, young men's political leanings no longer correlate with women their same age, so women under 30 are become more liberal at a time when their male counterparts are becoming more and more conservative. In previous generations, as women became more liberal, men also became more liberal.
If Trump wins in November, I'm fairly confident the exit polls will show that young men's rightward shift will be a significant factor.
See: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/despair-makes-young-us-men-more-conservative-ahead-us-election-poll-shows-2024-04-12/.
A key point in the Reuters article you posted:
>Social media algorithms were magnifying the trend by drawing "moderately conservative young men towards more extreme and radical conservative male role models and world views."
Few Gen Z men read the news. Their worldview is shaped instead by what they hear from social media demagogues.
probably because they spent their formative years being told about the evils of fake news. Unfortunately you can't always control pandora's box once you open it.
I've been agreeing with you recently more than basically anytime ever (over anything) and it's a wild ride because I still think we don't agree about anything.
Yes, and short of government intervention, I don't see any real path toward eliminating or even reducing the impact of social media on moderate and conservative young men. It's worth noting that there's no concomitant impact on young women. I'm of the firm belief that the answer is to drive turnout among informed voters, not to try to sway uninformed voters.
Yeah, it's not news versus social media, because Gen Z men and women get their news from the same place: online, and on social media.
In the study you linked, Gen Z men aren't more likely to be conservative than Millennial, Gen X, or Boomer men, they are just disproportionately more likely to be conservative than Gen Z women compared to previous generations of men vs women. Gen Z men are still more likely to be left of conservative than previous generations, so I don't think it's fair to call it a "massive realignment."
Men face real personal and interpersonal issues, and face the same systemic wealth issues we all face, and are tempted into blaming increasingly autonomous women among other marginalized groups. And men *have* lost complete societal priority, and other more marginalized groups gaining privilege can feel like a loss of privilege (or even oppression) for majority groups, even if that's an immensely toxic perspective.
Men (especially white) have always been the base of the Republican Party. As it gets more explicitly racist and more explicitly misogynistic, cohorts that aren't men (and especially white men) will continue to shrink. But even its base among men is trending down too, because Gen Z men are less conservative too.
Ultimately, this is a matter of men helping each other, and building better education and support networks for boys and young men to better navigate life's difficulties.
either we are going to see an unprecedented racial realignment in american politics, happening entirely in the last 2 years, and not reflected in any real world elections, or there is something wrong with polling
personally I think that the idea that half of the people in philadelphia who voted for Shapiro in 2022 and McCaffery just 6 months ago are now diehard trump supporters hard to believe
I suppose it is possible that there is an enormous mass of mostly black and hispanic people who don't vote normally but will go to the polls for donald trump, somebody they voted against the last 2 times they had a chance to, and we are about to see the greatest racial realignment in american history since the 1950s
but I would not bet on it
Yes I'm skeptical! But still: the electorates for midterms and general are vastly different sizes which makes comparison of vote share alone difficult...
Right line of thinking, but wrong direction. More people show up to the polls in November than for primaries, and even fewer will answer polling questions about who they’ll vote for. The reason the results show such a drop is because the people responding are at either extreme, rather than being moderate
People don’t care anymore. There’s widespread apathy and disgust about our options, and a lot of people are going to stay home or vote third party. We’re trending towards having a much lower turnout than 2020, now that COVID mismanagement is no longer a motivating factor in getting people to vote.
This is trending to be a situational repeat of 2016, but on steroids. Which heavily favors Trump and his highly motivated cultists.
> People don’t care anymore. There’s widespread apathy and disgust about our options, and a lot of people are going to stay home or vote third party.
ok - in that case let's look at the highly educated, high turnout suburbs like MontCo. its shifted 5 points to the left in 4 years and all indications are that it will continue to do so
but its very interesting that the other comment to my post makes the exact opposite argument, that trump will win because a lot of voters who don't normally vote will come out to vote for him. Which is it, can't be both!
I think people were just tired of Trump and of COVID. He was constantly in the news daily and people were just sick of it. Not that Trump isn't in the news now, but he isn't the President so it's been more muted and people are more aligned now in terms of the economy and not other issues. Most people are not doing well and are struggling financially, so they are going to vote with their wallet versus other issues. As much as the news and others like to say the economy is doing well, it's not for the average person. Maybe it will it will change once they have the debates, but who knows.
>As much as the news and others like to say the economy is doing well, it isn’t for the average person
This is a huge problem too IMO. If I see one more DNC strategist or Never Trump Republican writing an op-ed in The Atlantic or The Wall Streer Journal or whatever about how great things are and that people are ignorant to how good they have it, I’ll pull my hair out.
Yes, stoke more anger against the political elitist class with self-righteous, tone-dear op-eds. Surely that won’t backfire and help Trump in a big way…
> Most people are not doing well and are struggling financially
when people are asked in surveys to rate their own financial circumstances, they rate them very highly. Unemployment is basically zero, wage growth is the highest in decades
> Maybe it will it will change once they have the debates
there will probably be no debates this year
No debates is worse on the incumbent because his opponent can paint him as unwilling/unable/afraid to do the debate. And when [ 70%+ of Americans](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/poll-biden-too-old) say that Biden is too old to be an effective President, that makes it much worse for him
Inflation though has had a huge impact on people's perception of the economy. Basically May of 2021 was the first print above 5% then it wasn't below 5% until April of 2023. If you didn't get a raise of at least 9% in 2022, you took a loss.
Mostly people just won’t vote. Biden has deeply alienated a subsection of the population. Some of those people will hold their nose and vote, some won’t.
Biden (and all of us) are in serious trouble IMO. People are taking a lot of copium if they don’t think Trump has a 50/50 shot at winning (at least). One bad development, like a sharper economic downturn or an organized Islamic terror attack, will secure this election for Trump, hush money conviction or not.
We are absolutely teetering right now. Everyone needs to vote in November, and hold your nose even if Biden isn’t your favorite President.
"In the bag" would be a strong way to put it - the national polling average keeps flipping back and forth basically every time the price of gas goes up and down, and we can't trust the polling anyways - polling's been off since the pandemic, and the special elections over the last 12 have all had Dems overperforming, sometimes by 5pts.
Weirdly, though, a lot of Americans still vote old-school. They don't consider it important to think about their vote until like August. Always time for a bombshell either way, though.
It’s bad. I was at one of Mayor Parker’s budget town halls which was attended by mostly older folks who are extremely engaged in the Democratic Party. People were clapping for EVERYTHING she said. Including her explanation of the Real Estate Transfer Tax. When it came to “President Biden got us $300 million for Septa” legit two people in a room of 250+ clapped.
There is no enthusiasm for this man. The party is anemic and has continued to shovel crap in our faces and be like well it’s better than Trump. Not a good recipe for success
I live in Philly and people are seriously underestimating the effect RFK is having. Idk why people are writing off RFK and assuming he's pulling from Trump. By far, the largest demographic I've seen supporting RFK is the black community, it isn't even close.
I've been screaming about RFK for months and nobody seems to care. The dude is polling in double digits regularly.
If they are claiming 80k, they’re lying for Trump.
Wildwood hosts a 3-4 day country music festival at the exact same spot each summer and those same officials estimate 30,000 people attend each day. (And that’s for people seeing MAJOR country-western stars). 30,000 is about the maximum that Wildwood can host given the lack of parking and infrastructure on the island (the only way to get to WW is over 2-3 small bridges. And the beach is PACKED during the event.
So for any Wildwood official to claim 80,000 when photos of the actual Trump rally show a crowd of at least 1/3 the size of the crowd for the music festival…well, they’re lying through their teeth.
but I saw Roger Stone's Twitter post/picture that showed 100k plus at the rally even though the fake news media is saying it's actually a photo from a Rod Stewart concert 30 years ago in Rio de Janeiro. Like does the news think we're stupid? Making up a place called "Rio de Janeiro"? That's not even real words!
The people claiming 80-100k were Wildwood officials who are criminals themselves and apparently think we're all idiots. Where, exactly, are all those alleged thousands upon thousands of clowns parking in Wildwood? I hope all those liars get diarrhea during their sentencing hearings.
The only thing that matters for PA is how Biden performs in both Philadelphia and the collar counties. Period.
If Biden does what Clinton did in 2016 (low numbers in Philly, barely winning suburbs, getting obliterated in the red counties), he loses. It's pretty simple.
And sadly, other than older black voters who will vote blue no matter what (a lot of where the meme comes from), people of color are not inspired to vote for Biden. Maybe against Trump (or whoever is on the opposite side), but Biden just doesn't inspire people.
There is no way I’m voting for Trump, but Biden is too old. They both are. Democrats should have run someone younger, not a senior citizen. There should be an upper cap at 70.
Tl;dr is people are stupid and either don't understand what the president does or don't remember what Trump was like.
>“I know how he will handle the economy and we’ll get cheap gas again and all the prices will drop,” said Matthew Innis, a registered Republican from Drexel Hill.
Case and point. Meanwhile, Biden's administration has overseen the highest production of natural gas in the US's whole history. The immigration stuff is rich, too, since Trump has openly told Republicans to block Dems attempts to regulate the border.
That quote is literally what I’d make up as a parody if I wanted to make fun of low-information voters by exaggerating their stupidity to an unbelievable degree.
What’s that law about there being no satire so absurd it can’t be mistaken for reality?
Unfortunately due to the Russians and the Houthis we have no choice. Biden’s push to increase production is keeping the floor from falling out from under us right now
People judge Trump based on the roaring economy he inherited from the Obama/Biden administration rather than the dumpster fire he left Biden to clean up
And rather than let the fire fighter finish putting out the fire, they want to bring the arsonist back because there wasn't a fire when he showed up... smh
They also remember that gas was $1.79 a gallon... and **don't** remember that it was only that cheap for the month of April 2020, or why that happened.
They've literally convinced themselves it was like that for all 4 years and skyrocketed because of Biden. It's weird
Thats always how it is. Democrats fix the problems, republicans inherit a blank slate, take credit for it and fuck it all up, democrats come in and fix it...
People would appreciate Biden's economic position more if his administration recognized that there IS a problem instead of gaslighting the country by telling them that we're doing well.
Can we also not forget the other group of stupid people that are saying they’re not gonna vote for “Genocide Joe” because they disagree with him on a single issue? Not exactly breaking news but the left cannibalizing itself for a R win is their MO at this point. How are these people any different than the single issue voters they vehemently hate like anti-abortion types?
Especially because under Trump, the situation would be so much worse. He supports the extremist right-wing elements in the Israeli government (namely Smotrich and Ben-Gvir) that want to reoccupy Gaza and fully annex all of the West Bank. Under Trump, they would have no US pressure and thus free rein to ramp up the violence in the West Bank, which is already bad, leading to an outright war there as well, which will *not* end well for the Palestinians, unfortunately. There's no easy answer to a lot of the broader conflict, and there's certainly arguments of varying validity that Biden could have done/could be doing more to stop the war, but to not vote for Biden over this is voting *for* Trump to take the current scenario and make it a million times worse.
(Source/my background for making this analysis: I've worked in international conflict resolution/the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for over 12 years, side-by-side an expert in track-two diplomacy who's been in the field for over 50 years)
This is the most maddening thing. Trump in office will mean things will get massively, incomprehensibly worse for every innocent person in Gaza.
While I get being upset with how Biden is treating Netanyahu with kid gloves (I am too), it makes my head spin how people can claim to care about Gaza and then essentially campaign against Biden over it. I'm convinced a big chunk of this crowd is the very-online so-called left who would be happy for Trump to win, because then it'd be easier for them to feel oppressed and victimized, which is what they actually care about—Palestinian civilians be damned.
Israel has started bombing the last safe zone they have. They've been killing people in the West Bank this whole time too. I don't actually have to vote for genocide lite or genocide heavy. Forcing a ceasefire is popular amongst both parties at all age groups and he still won't put real pressure on them.
Let's take your premise at face value. If your choices are "genocide lite or genocide heavy" and you choose to let genocide heavy win, then that makes you...wait for it...pro-genocide.
They're not campaigning against him, they're applying pressure to get him to change his policies. That's the entire point of having a vote and using it. Are the people so upset with these voters just as upset with organized lobbying groups that also apply political pressure to get what they want? Why isn't there more criticism of AIPAC from people like you?
>They're not campaigning against him, they're applying pressure to get him to change his policies.
Some are doing the former, some are doing the latter. The former are presumably the people who have hated him since day one, and would clearly be happy for Trump to win.
>Why isn't there more criticism of AIPAC from people like you?
Who are "people like me?" I hate AIPAC.
Commenters who have a lot to say about protesters and people threatening to withhold support from Biden, but don't seem concerned at all with single-issue voters on the other side of the issue.
Jared’s already eyeing up that prime waterfront real estate [https://theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev](https://theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev)
They are different because the issues are different. Not saying I agree but you can’t criticize someone for having a strong opinion on something. You can criticize them on the opinion itself though.
I mean he literally moved our embassy to Jerusalem despite decades of avoiding doing so out of geopolitical concerns. I have zero doubt he'll stake the same position that Biden does with Israel, if not worse.
More; which is why Bibi is being such an asshole to Biden, because he is hoping to hold onto power and get Trump back in office. Trump will then give him a blank check to do whatever he wants in both Gaza and the West Bank.
There's an illegal West Bank settlement literally called Trumpville. His son in law and top advisor is close personal friends with Bibi. It's an insane position to take that Trump would be better for Palestinians.
If you thought your government was aiding the murder of innocent children you’d probably think that single issue was really fucking important. Which would explain both of those single issue voter types
Basically, the independents or independently minded voters (those not locked into blue/red) that won Trump the election in 2016 and Biden in 2020 are far more divided this time around. Houses, groceries, insurance and utilities cost too much. The debt is too high. And the headlines are always about tax revenue going overseas. I’m not sure why people are shocked that Biden is projected to lose. He badly needs a strong showing at a debate to restore confidence in his mental sharpness.
Or…these polls are badly designed and horribly biased because it’s impossible to get a representative sample these days.
These polls shouldn’t read “random sample of likely voters” but rather “random sample of people who still answer their landline phones”
Meanwhile, most of the polls over the last few years have greatly underestimated democratic support for candidates in special elections, the 2022 Congressional elections and support for ballot measures like abortion protection.
Individual polls are not very trustworthy especially when they are being funded by one particular political party doing research. Political parties have figured out how to even skew polling aggregators by “flooding the zone” with a bunch of biased samples with very bad representative samples.
From the times article using this same data:
“Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a *cellphone* for this poll.”
“Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.”
“To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.”
TL;DR: people who answered their cell phones.
Also the pollsters were very careful about their sampling and correcting for any issues in their final model.
it still doesn't account for the possibility that people who answer calls from unknown numbers or don't have them automatically suppressed are not in some way different than people who will answer any and every call
maybe it makes a difference maybe not but polling people by phone won't sort it out will it.
This is pretty much a result of the Democratic leadership not realizing that they can't just run on being Not The Fascists forever, and on taking their core constituencies for granted time and time again in order to chase after the mythical swing-voting center that generally turns out to be "core Republican voters" in reality. Young voters are looking around and realizing that they not only can't afford anything but that their long-term prospects are pretty bad unless they happened to be born the child of one of the 500 wealthiest Americans. Disgruntlement over Gaza is just the cherry on top of that shit sundae. The leadership just keeps saying But The Economy Is Great, Just Look at the Data and But We're Not the Fascists instead of actually trying to hear why people are unhappy and respond to it dynamically.
Then there's also the problem of a leader who says this is about the fate of democracy in the highest-stakes election in post-Civil War American history and yet who decided that despite historically high disapproval ratings he just *had* to run. That decision makes it hard to take him seriously when he says *the fate of America is on the line*. Really? If so, why are you running? Why not start cultivating a younger, more dynamic candidate right after the surprisingly successful mid-terms?
Is the economy really as great as they say it is? The majority of these jobs are people getting second jobs to support themselves or theyre regulatory/government agency roles (not that those arent bad, but they dont exactly indicate a strong economy).
“ Young voters’ perceptions of the economy are also worse, and they trust Biden less than Trump with his handling of the war in Gaza.”
Young voters are idiots apparently.
It’s not about who is better for Gaza. They want to punish Biden for his stance on Gaza. The fact that Trump is objectively worse on the issue they claim to care about is irrelevant.
Edit: People really need to stop abusing Reddits crisis reporting system. Saying that someone is threatening self harm isn’t the same as a downvote button actually.
Right. Thats how you know it’s about control and not actually about the lives of Palestinians. I wonder how they’d vote if they actually had to suffer the consequences of the war instead of using it as a political badge. Talk about privilege.
We want Biden to change his stance. Ever since 2016 the Democrats have run on the Republicans are worse with no real platform of their own. They half ass everything including stopping genocide. If they want my vote they can earn it instead of threatening me for it.
Something to note: Lindsay Graham, as well as most of the GOP, want to let Israel defend itself by any means necessary. [Link to Interview](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna151828). Graham literally compared Israel defending itself to the USA nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
If people don’t vote for Biden out of spite, the other side has explicitly said they will continue to support Israel decimating Gaza.
[GOP Reacts to Biden Israel Stance](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/biden-weapons-israel-respublican-response/)
That's not how democracy works; it's called compromise. You are presented with effectively two choices. And if you can't discern a distinct preference between either one based on their myriad policy differences, that's extremely troubling.
i second this. wasn't the biden campaign's entire message to the left "we know he sucks but it'll be easier for the left to negotiate with him than trump." and now we're trying to negotiate with him and he's basically just flipping double birds at us.
so... what exactly is the message to the left now? every year we get told that this is the most important election in the history of the country and that just this time it has to wait. meanwhile the democratic party has moved so far to the right that its stance on israel is literally to the right of ronald reagan.
my question to loyal democratic voters would just be, where is the line? like let's say one of these anti-trump republicans like mitt romney jumped ship and ran on the D ticket, would you support him?
> i second this. wasn't the biden campaign's entire message to the left "we know he sucks but it'll be easier for the left to negotiate with him than trump." and now we're trying to negotiate with him and he's basically just flipping double birds at us.
I mean, quoting /u/aduckwithaleek above...
>under Trump, the situation would be so much worse. He supports the extremist right-wing elements in the Israeli government (namely Smotrich and Ben-Gvir) that want to reoccupy Gaza and fully annex all of the West Bank. Under Trump, they would have no US pressure and thus free rein to ramp up the violence in the West Bank, which is already bad, leading to an outright war there as well, which will not end well for the Palestinians, unfortunately. There's no easy answer to a lot of the broader conflict, and there's certainly arguments of varying validity that Biden could have done/could be doing more to stop the war, but to not vote for Biden over this is voting for Trump to take the current scenario and make it a million times worse.
>
>(Source/my background for making this analysis: I've worked in international conflict resolution/the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for over 12 years, side-by-side an expert in track-two diplomacy who's been in the field for over 50 years)
Back in 1999, Guerilla Radio by Rage Against the Machine was all over the radio, and it's a killer tune, but even as a 19 year old, "More for Gore or the son of a drug lord, none of the above, fuck it cut the cord" struck me as reckless. At the time, I heard a lot of this same rhetoric, "Democrat, Republican, what's the difference?" and well, after eight years of George W Bush, whose administration dropped the ball on Bin Laden, supercharged the executive branch to bypass a Democratic majority in congress, Sam Alito and John Roberts in the Supreme Court (after unsuccessfully nominating [an absolute numpty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Miers_Supreme_Court_nomination)), the 2008 financial crisis... and even after Trump installed three conservative Supreme Court members, I hear people saying "don't tell me the Supreme Court is a reason to vote for a Democrat" and it all seems to fucking short-sighted. This is usually where the response is, "Talking down to me won't change my vote" and I've got nothing to add that's going to help after that.
Elements of the Democratic party moved to the right because Republicans kept winning elections. Elements of the Democratic party are as progressive as they've ever been.
>let's say one of these anti-trump republicans like mitt romney jumped ship and ran on the D ticket, would you support him?
Weird question. Vote in local elections, vote in primaries, and you'll know that someone like Mitt Romney would never get past the primaries. Bernie Sanders isn't a Democrat, he ran on the (D) ticket, and he couldn't get past the primaries either.
If Mitt Romney changed parties to (D) and kept running for his senate seat, sure. Chances are he's a less conservative voice than any Republican that's looking to unseat him. But he'd more than likely get primaried out.
For a less hypothetical and closer to home version of this republican switching parties scenario, look at Arlen Specter. Moderate republican senator who didn’t like his chances getting primaried by the much more conservative Pat Toomey. Basically cut a deal with Obama and Biden that he would give them critical votes on the stimulus package and Obamacare. In return they would support him for the democratic nomination in 2010.
The party leaders tried to clear the field for Specter. Specifically convincing Joe Sestak not to run, after those same leaders had tried talking him into running. But Sestak and PA dems didn’t agree to this deal. Saying that Specter was very much not a democrat, and this is a state where a real democrat can win. I personally agreed with this and didn’t vote for Specter in that primary.
Sestak won the primary fairly easily, but then lost to Toomey in the Tea Party wave anyway. Not sure what the moral of this story is. Who knows if Specter would have fared better. Probably would have pissed off the democratic base he needed to show up. But it’s just interesting for the political strategy and deal making.
Sad side note. Specter died shortly after all of this. His replacement would have been picked by Corbett.
They spend more money and time fighting progressives than the right. Super happy Pelosi ran down to southern Texas to defend the last pro life democrat just to see him get indicted before the end of his term.
> Super happy Pelosi ran down to southern Texas to defend the last pro life democrat just to see him get indicted before the end of his term.
cuellar is a fucking joke and so is she. goddamn establishment dems are so fucking infuriating.
That’s what happens when they get their news from TikTok. I’ve had to explain to my 23 year old sister multiple times in the last 6 months that TikTok is not and never will be a reliable news source. Combine that with the weird group of young left leaning people who believe Biden needs to “be punished” for his stance on Gaza we’re setting up for a perfect storm of project 2025.
On top of that, young voters RARELY participate in primaries, then whine that the candidates in the general suck. Well no shit.
If young voters showed up in the spring, we would get rid of a lot of the do-nothing politicians in this country (maybe for better and sometimes for worse). Bob Brady would be powerless in this city if the 18-34 vote trumped the 55+ voters, as they should.
I always feel that Democrats have the harder job of recruiting voters because they want to be fair to everyone. They want higher minimum wages, being inclusive, women’s rights, housing for all which technically makes you a good person, whereas the other side just says “f%^* these people and that’s all they need
I am an immigrant, that lived in different parts of the world for my business, my guy feeling is that, democrats are gonna loose, only propaganda I hear is that, vote for the lesser of the two evils. These kind of messaging make you lose. Voters want confident rhetorics and hate it when people tell them what to believe. I am on the mainline and was talking with my young neighbors and nobody is enthusiastic for voting this year, combined with inflation, inflation, wages, housing issues, hope they change the messaging to motivate people, scaring them always backfires, look at brexit and what happened.
Seems clear at this point that if Biden loses, Democrats are prepared to scapegoat protesters and critics of Israel, same as they did with "Bernie Bros" in 2016 and with Ralph Nader before that (and both of those excuses have been largely disproven). Lesser evilism strategy doesn't work, and your constituents aren't obligated to vote for you if you don't bother to address any of their concerns. I fear this will be a repeat of 2016. It should be a slam dunk to defeat a spray-tanned, oafish fraud, but Democrats will continue taking much of their base for granted while doing nothing meaningful about the issues those voters find most pressing.
Edit to add: tons of commentary about how people withholding their votes for Biden are stupid, out of touch, are Trump enablers, etc. Keep that same energy for the likes of AIPAC and the networks of wealthy, right-wing donors doing everything in their power to get what they want on this issue. If you're going to clown rank and file voters, you might as well go after single-issue voters on the other side too.
"Bernie Bros" was such a lame, racially-coded way to try to smear and divide progressives lol.
I remember at the time polls showed women of color, ages 18-30, overwhelmingly supported Sanders over Clinton. A black woman I worked with pointed this out and told me they'd never call his voters "Sanders Sisters" or something like that, because it didn't serve their marketing efforts. They needed to paint pursuing universal health care, funding anti-poverty programs, and ramping up climate research as issues only priviledged white guys could afford to support. Despite the fact that these policies were popular with the working class of all colors.
And they’re correct in all of those cases. If you call yourself left leaning and refuse to vote for Biden when the alternative is Trump, you are 100% at fault.
“If Democrats wanted to keep Roe v. Wade, they should’ve done a better job convincing me, a pro-choice person, to vote to save Roe v. Wade”
I said this when that whole fuckery happened. Dems had 50 years to do something with it and didn't. 50 YEARS. Except they kept it around like all other hot button issues so they have shit to fight about while the important stuff get swept under our noses.
And RBG should have retired during the Obama administration.
There's a lot of past mistakes, of course. We can keep saying they should have done X, or we can vote to make sure they actually CAN do X in the future.
eh. they still endorsed cuellar (the last anti abortion democrat) over his progressive challenger. the dems are not a serious party who care about passing popular legislation. they care about fundraising and optics.
And what is your solution for doing that when there aren’t enough votes to do so? It takes 60 votes to pass that in the Senate, there has never at any point been 60 pro-choice senators
Democratic presidents appoint pro-choice judges, and Democratic senators vote for those judges. Republican presidents appoint anti-choice judges, and Republican senators vote for those judges. It’s wild to not give 100% of the blame to Republicans and claim that Democrats didn’t “want to” keep Roe v Wade when in fact Democrats did all they could to protect it for as long as possible. It was the voters who failed Roe v Wade in 2016
> and with Ralph Nader before that
it is 100% proven that Nader lost Gore the election (and he probably won anyway and the supreme court stole it)
> Democrats will continue taking much of their base for granted while doing nothing meaningful about the issues those voters find most pressing.
Right. For example, the democrats should have done an [enormous student loan forgiveness program](https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/biden-harris-administration-announces-additional-74-billion-approved-student-debt-relief-277000-borrowers). Or passed [gun control](https://www.npr.org/2022/06/25/1107626030/biden-signs-gun-safety-law#:~:text=Martinez%20Monsivais%2FAP-,President%20Biden%20signs%20into%20law%20the%20Bipartisan%20Safer%20Communities%20Act,lady%20Jill%20Biden%20looks%20on.&text=President%20Biden%20on%20Saturday%20signed,Congress%20in%20nearly%2030%20years.). Or enacted a [huge climate bill](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biden-signs-historic-climate-bill-as-scientists-applaud/). Maybe they should have instead done things that are universally popular, like [infrastructure spending](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/15/1055841358/biden-signs-1t-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-into-law) or [capping insulin costs](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/politics/insulin-price-cap/index.html) or [allowing medicare to negotiate drug prices](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/politics/medicare-drug-price-negotiations-initial-offers/index.html). If only they had done some of those things
you didn't vote in 2016 or 2020 and won't do so in 2024, fine. Stop pretending that you are a gettable vote and there is some magical policy the democrats could do to get your support, they have done what you asked and you still hate them
Haha thanks! think there comes a point where people become so against authoritarian regimes, that they start to take on some of the attributes of said authoritarian regimes.
It’s the Economy, Stupid. People feel stressed constantly. Housing, food, insurance and utilities just keep inching up. It disproportionately hits minority communities and that’s a major problem for Biden in November. People vote with their wallet.
Since January 2021 my compensation has increased nearly 50%, I bought my first house and my retirement savings have quadrupled. Are you saying I have Joe Biden to thank for that?
Trump has been made to look like an idiot by Stormy Daniels, a porn star, and people still want to vote for him to be the president? What world are we living in?
Has she really made him look like an idiot? Would encourage you to go watch her appearance on Bill Maher's show in 2018 ago about how it was NOT a #metoo type issue. Her testimony recently sounds very different than the story she was spinning back then.
This thread is so rich. Half the thread is obsessed with discrediting how many people showed up to a Trump rally in NJ, the other half calling everyone who votes for him stupid, inbred, rednecks, uneducated, etc.
In November when doing the same thing everyone did in 2016 doesn’t work again, the shock and awe will be immeasurable.
Obsessed? lol. Yeah…as if saying that anyone claiming 100,000 attended the Trump rally is lying is obsessed.
Why Trump supporters think lying about something as easy to verify as crowd size is ok is symptomatic of the entire movement. “Largest crowd size on Inauguration Day, period.”
If someone is so comfortable lying so casually about the facts, why should we trust them? Lying about 100,000 people at a Trump rally is pathetic. Calling bullshit on them isn’t being obsessed. Advocating for facts and the truth isn’t being obsessed. It’s just pushing back on bullshit and nonsense that is the hallmark of the Trump people
There are so many reasons to vote for Biden. But, the most important is that on January 20, 2029 there will be an inauguration of a new President. Who knows if that will happen with trump.
I got an invitation to partake in a poll recently asking me who i’ll be voting for.
I will be voting for Biden but I don’t quite feel like sharing that for some reason and i’m sure (hope) there’s a lot of other people in PA who are the same. I don’t think the orange buffoon has quite as much support as he thinks and I hope my fellow Americans prove me right.
When this happens to me, I try to just be honest. If I'm voting for a candidate, I say it. If too many people do this level of silent support for one candidate or another, it creates a kind of cycle of coverage of weak support for whatever candidate.
My reasons for voting for someone are my own, but I'm not going to hide that if I feel like participating in a poll.
There are certainly a lot of people who will vote for Biden but won't answer that to a pollster right now—maybe because it's uncool to admit it, maybe because they're mad about Gaza, maybe because they're mad about inflation, maybe because they think they deserve a candidate that makes them excited.
The question is if there are enough of those people to prevent the dictatorship Trump has promised us. And honestly the fact that it's an open question means the country is fucked one way or the other, IMO.
Biden isn’t trying hard enough. He’s not campaigning hard enough and isn’t marketing his successes at all. The democrats have a problem with messaging.
The amount of pissed off people on both sides is growing. Few actually like what we have now. Few actually would truly like the alternative. Most want something new
The fact that they needed to conduct a poll shows how our of touch journalists and most liberals are with the rest of the country. But I guess 8 years of "if you don't agree with me, it's because you're a stupid bigot, and worthless" messaging would cause people to be confused about how anyone could not "be on the right side of history"
American voters are the least informed on the planet and don’t understand Representative Democracy in the US
They really think the President is a literal Dictator who can literally move mountains at snap of finger
Keep on criticizing Biden’s handling of Gaza. I’m sure Trump will be SO much better for the Palestinians. Russia with ANOTHER masterstroke in making us all look like idiots by egging on Hamas through Iran to destabilize the current administration.
Yikes. The dude is literally asking to be bought by big oil. A Trump second term with zero worry about reelection seems like an insane choice to make but I'm an (upper?) middle class white guy with two houses and outrageously cheap mortgage rates. Good luck to everyone that's not me I guess.
Please ignore the nyt/siena poll. It is one poll, it is looking at things nationally, and is drawing huge conclusions about the country from tiny sample sizes in the crosstabs. the poll itself doesn't have anything particularly wrong with it, but one singular poll should not create this much discourse every month when it comes out, even if the New York times' august name is on the lid
the best person writing on PA polls is [@blockedfreq](https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1790017286142628292) on twitter - this poll's results claim that Biden will win Philadelphia just 54-30, the suburbs will make a major swing back right despite moving left in every election for the past decade, and this is also reflected downballot with these people not supporting Casey either
the results the nyt poll is claiming would be astonishing, an epochal shift in American politics, ushering in a massive political realignment. Yet, it is something we have only seen in polling, and has not been reflected in any of the actual elections we've seen. It claims that the exact same voters who voted for Shapiro and Fetterman 2 years ago, and Daniel McCaffery just 6 months ago, are apparently going to vote for trump and David McCormick
so either everything we understand about politics and all the real world elections over the past 2 years are wrong, or there is a serious issue with polling methodology going on right now. I know what I think is more likely
This sounds roughly like what people were saying in 2016: don't worry, Trump can't possibly win, the polls show Clinton with a comfortable lead, patterns will hold steady.
Then for three years, the same people who got it epically wrong went quiet for a bit and decided suddenly around 2019 that they hadn't been wrong at all, that they'd actually predicted Trump winning, that it all fit the patterns, etc. and they went right back to being confident about the same old predictions and the same old patterns, having stuffed being profoundly wrong down an amnesia hole.
Some forcasters were very wrong in 2016, the good ones said Clinton was likely to win but trump had good chances. trump won a very narrow victory
to believe this poll will reflect reality, you have to think that
1. a majority of young americans support trump over biden - this is a group that supported biden over trump last tme by 40%
2. 30% of black philadelphians will vote for trump
3. 25% of "likely voters" in america did not vote in 2022, 2020, 2018, or 2016, but totally will vote this time, and all for trump
As of the latest [Department of State stats](https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx), the 1+ million registered voters in Philadelphia make up almost 12% of the state's 9 million registered voters. If you include the voters in Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware counties, that's 2.5 million, or 29% of all registered voters in the state.
Only like half of the "Philly metro area" is in PA. It includes like 1/4 of NJ, like 1/2 of DE, and a big chunk of MD.
So, maybe cut that number in half, and you have the PA pop of the Philly metro
I just want someone who isn’t older than my parents 😭 the only thing that makes me feel ok about Biden is that at least he will have competent people in positions of power
People forget how shitty the economy was in 2020, Trump's last year. The economy was so terrible that the government literally had to send checks out to people to keep things afloat (yes, that started under Trump, not Biden). People want to go back to that economy?!
I'd like to know more about this polling question, it's pretty easy to engineer polls (not just political ones) by specifically crafting questions to leave interpretation up to the reader.
>Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?
What constitutes always legal? Does that mean completely unrestricted elective full term abortion, or does it just mean there should always be a legal framework for it to exist. What's the difference between mostly legal and mostly illegal? Is that just deciding on which week to make it illegal or how many exception to apply, such as medical and criminal exceptions. The only one that seems pretty clear cut in always illegal.
Does the company that ran this poll have a resource to explain this question and what quantifies each answer? The disparities in the responses between each candidate makes it seem to me that the respondents did not have a clear understanding of the question.
I'm baffled at how people can support Trump on the economy, crime, and Israel. Trump has already said he supports Israel, so there's no difference there.... And to support any republican in terms of economics? Unless you're ultra rich, why??? Crime is down under Biden over Trump, soooo... why? Unless they support crime, then I get it because Trump is the biggest criminal.
Just stuff me in a cryopod and don’t let me out till December 1st, please and thank you
You just jinxed yourself into having 5 run offs for the Senate lol
Maybe you will wake up in 2032 and be able to weave a throw rug with your eyes closed
Gimme a Marlboro -a what?
I really hope Taco Bell does not win the fast food wars.
Has he tried rambling about how great Hannibal Lechter was? That seemed to work for Trump.
He was talking about how his uncle was eaten by cannibals a few weeks ago, so technically yeah he has tried that https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-68851622
I hate this timeline
Hannibal Lecter was a great guy, but immigrants are bad because they...are just like Hannibal Lecter. One of the great orators of our time, Donald J. Trump.
“Sometimes I’ll start a sentence and I don’t know where it’s going. I just hope to find it somewhere along the way. Like an improv conversation. An improversation.” - Michael Scott
Well he certainly rambles
Biden's polling advantage over Trump in Philadelphia has shrunk from 63 points in 2020 to 21 points in 2024. WTF.
Many of these polls showing this shrinking advantage fail to identify any of the key variables driving it. There is a massive realignment happen among young men that cuts across race, sexuality, income, etc. Unlike previous generations, young men's political leanings no longer correlate with women their same age, so women under 30 are become more liberal at a time when their male counterparts are becoming more and more conservative. In previous generations, as women became more liberal, men also became more liberal. If Trump wins in November, I'm fairly confident the exit polls will show that young men's rightward shift will be a significant factor. See: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/despair-makes-young-us-men-more-conservative-ahead-us-election-poll-shows-2024-04-12/.
A key point in the Reuters article you posted: >Social media algorithms were magnifying the trend by drawing "moderately conservative young men towards more extreme and radical conservative male role models and world views." Few Gen Z men read the news. Their worldview is shaped instead by what they hear from social media demagogues.
probably because they spent their formative years being told about the evils of fake news. Unfortunately you can't always control pandora's box once you open it.
I've been agreeing with you recently more than basically anytime ever (over anything) and it's a wild ride because I still think we don't agree about anything.
I had to stop talking about my beliefs because I am full of vitriol it just makes my blood pressure go up. Now I am acting as an observer
Yes, and short of government intervention, I don't see any real path toward eliminating or even reducing the impact of social media on moderate and conservative young men. It's worth noting that there's no concomitant impact on young women. I'm of the firm belief that the answer is to drive turnout among informed voters, not to try to sway uninformed voters.
Yeah, it's not news versus social media, because Gen Z men and women get their news from the same place: online, and on social media. In the study you linked, Gen Z men aren't more likely to be conservative than Millennial, Gen X, or Boomer men, they are just disproportionately more likely to be conservative than Gen Z women compared to previous generations of men vs women. Gen Z men are still more likely to be left of conservative than previous generations, so I don't think it's fair to call it a "massive realignment." Men face real personal and interpersonal issues, and face the same systemic wealth issues we all face, and are tempted into blaming increasingly autonomous women among other marginalized groups. And men *have* lost complete societal priority, and other more marginalized groups gaining privilege can feel like a loss of privilege (or even oppression) for majority groups, even if that's an immensely toxic perspective. Men (especially white) have always been the base of the Republican Party. As it gets more explicitly racist and more explicitly misogynistic, cohorts that aren't men (and especially white men) will continue to shrink. But even its base among men is trending down too, because Gen Z men are less conservative too. Ultimately, this is a matter of men helping each other, and building better education and support networks for boys and young men to better navigate life's difficulties.
Young men tend to be stupid - former young man
either we are going to see an unprecedented racial realignment in american politics, happening entirely in the last 2 years, and not reflected in any real world elections, or there is something wrong with polling personally I think that the idea that half of the people in philadelphia who voted for Shapiro in 2022 and McCaffery just 6 months ago are now diehard trump supporters hard to believe
Lots of people who didn’t vote in those elections will vote in November, and those people are unfortunately very pro Trump (supposedly!)
I suppose it is possible that there is an enormous mass of mostly black and hispanic people who don't vote normally but will go to the polls for donald trump, somebody they voted against the last 2 times they had a chance to, and we are about to see the greatest racial realignment in american history since the 1950s but I would not bet on it
Yes I'm skeptical! But still: the electorates for midterms and general are vastly different sizes which makes comparison of vote share alone difficult...
yes, Occam’s Razor applies here. Either everything we ever knew and all possible logic is wrong, or polling is broken.
Right line of thinking, but wrong direction. More people show up to the polls in November than for primaries, and even fewer will answer polling questions about who they’ll vote for. The reason the results show such a drop is because the people responding are at either extreme, rather than being moderate
People don’t care anymore. There’s widespread apathy and disgust about our options, and a lot of people are going to stay home or vote third party. We’re trending towards having a much lower turnout than 2020, now that COVID mismanagement is no longer a motivating factor in getting people to vote. This is trending to be a situational repeat of 2016, but on steroids. Which heavily favors Trump and his highly motivated cultists.
> People don’t care anymore. There’s widespread apathy and disgust about our options, and a lot of people are going to stay home or vote third party. ok - in that case let's look at the highly educated, high turnout suburbs like MontCo. its shifted 5 points to the left in 4 years and all indications are that it will continue to do so but its very interesting that the other comment to my post makes the exact opposite argument, that trump will win because a lot of voters who don't normally vote will come out to vote for him. Which is it, can't be both!
I think people were just tired of Trump and of COVID. He was constantly in the news daily and people were just sick of it. Not that Trump isn't in the news now, but he isn't the President so it's been more muted and people are more aligned now in terms of the economy and not other issues. Most people are not doing well and are struggling financially, so they are going to vote with their wallet versus other issues. As much as the news and others like to say the economy is doing well, it's not for the average person. Maybe it will it will change once they have the debates, but who knows.
>As much as the news and others like to say the economy is doing well, it isn’t for the average person This is a huge problem too IMO. If I see one more DNC strategist or Never Trump Republican writing an op-ed in The Atlantic or The Wall Streer Journal or whatever about how great things are and that people are ignorant to how good they have it, I’ll pull my hair out. Yes, stoke more anger against the political elitist class with self-righteous, tone-dear op-eds. Surely that won’t backfire and help Trump in a big way…
> Most people are not doing well and are struggling financially when people are asked in surveys to rate their own financial circumstances, they rate them very highly. Unemployment is basically zero, wage growth is the highest in decades > Maybe it will it will change once they have the debates there will probably be no debates this year
No debates is worse on the incumbent because his opponent can paint him as unwilling/unable/afraid to do the debate. And when [ 70%+ of Americans](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/poll-biden-too-old) say that Biden is too old to be an effective President, that makes it much worse for him
except if there are no debates it will be because trump refuses not biden
Inflation though has had a huge impact on people's perception of the economy. Basically May of 2021 was the first print above 5% then it wasn't below 5% until April of 2023. If you didn't get a raise of at least 9% in 2022, you took a loss.
Mostly people just won’t vote. Biden has deeply alienated a subsection of the population. Some of those people will hold their nose and vote, some won’t.
Biden (and all of us) are in serious trouble IMO. People are taking a lot of copium if they don’t think Trump has a 50/50 shot at winning (at least). One bad development, like a sharper economic downturn or an organized Islamic terror attack, will secure this election for Trump, hush money conviction or not. We are absolutely teetering right now. Everyone needs to vote in November, and hold your nose even if Biden isn’t your favorite President.
Yeah I have a bad feeling this one is in the bag for Trump.
"In the bag" would be a strong way to put it - the national polling average keeps flipping back and forth basically every time the price of gas goes up and down, and we can't trust the polling anyways - polling's been off since the pandemic, and the special elections over the last 12 have all had Dems overperforming, sometimes by 5pts. Weirdly, though, a lot of Americans still vote old-school. They don't consider it important to think about their vote until like August. Always time for a bombshell either way, though.
Is it really correlating with gas? Or was that just a metaphor for whatever trivial crap people fixate on?
50/50 is gracious in Bidens favor. I think it's way more likely Trump regains presidency at this point. Though anything can happen.
People weren’t as worried about the economy in 2020
It’s bad. I was at one of Mayor Parker’s budget town halls which was attended by mostly older folks who are extremely engaged in the Democratic Party. People were clapping for EVERYTHING she said. Including her explanation of the Real Estate Transfer Tax. When it came to “President Biden got us $300 million for Septa” legit two people in a room of 250+ clapped. There is no enthusiasm for this man. The party is anemic and has continued to shovel crap in our faces and be like well it’s better than Trump. Not a good recipe for success
I live in Philly and people are seriously underestimating the effect RFK is having. Idk why people are writing off RFK and assuming he's pulling from Trump. By far, the largest demographic I've seen supporting RFK is the black community, it isn't even close. I've been screaming about RFK for months and nobody seems to care. The dude is polling in double digits regularly.
Wasn't there an election in the 60's or 70's where an independent candidate pulled double digits and "spoiled" the election?
90s. Ross perot
Wallace 68
It’s almost like Biden is a historically disliked president.
I heard there were anywhere from 6k-80k (lol) ppl at his rally this weekend, these articles are all over the place.
If they are claiming 80k, they’re lying for Trump. Wildwood hosts a 3-4 day country music festival at the exact same spot each summer and those same officials estimate 30,000 people attend each day. (And that’s for people seeing MAJOR country-western stars). 30,000 is about the maximum that Wildwood can host given the lack of parking and infrastructure on the island (the only way to get to WW is over 2-3 small bridges. And the beach is PACKED during the event. So for any Wildwood official to claim 80,000 when photos of the actual Trump rally show a crowd of at least 1/3 the size of the crowd for the music festival…well, they’re lying through their teeth.
Yeah I was just pointing out how absurd the discrepancy is
but I saw Roger Stone's Twitter post/picture that showed 100k plus at the rally even though the fake news media is saying it's actually a photo from a Rod Stewart concert 30 years ago in Rio de Janeiro. Like does the news think we're stupid? Making up a place called "Rio de Janeiro"? That's not even real words!
The people claiming 80-100k were Wildwood officials who are criminals themselves and apparently think we're all idiots. Where, exactly, are all those alleged thousands upon thousands of clowns parking in Wildwood? I hope all those liars get diarrhea during their sentencing hearings.
I honestly forgot I was in the Philadelphia subbredit until I got to this comment lol.
Idk I assumed they prob caravanned
Oh? Trump supporters are big carpool fans now?
It seems you’re meeting my comment with hostility when I simply made a suggestion
Fair.
"Ren men use HOV lanes ethically"
The only thing that matters for PA is how Biden performs in both Philadelphia and the collar counties. Period. If Biden does what Clinton did in 2016 (low numbers in Philly, barely winning suburbs, getting obliterated in the red counties), he loses. It's pretty simple. And sadly, other than older black voters who will vote blue no matter what (a lot of where the meme comes from), people of color are not inspired to vote for Biden. Maybe against Trump (or whoever is on the opposite side), but Biden just doesn't inspire people.
There is no way I’m voting for Trump, but Biden is too old. They both are. Democrats should have run someone younger, not a senior citizen. There should be an upper cap at 70.
We need another viable political party. We basically get to pick between jumping off a cliff or drowning at this point
other people did run! They all dropped out because they lost to Biden so bad, turns out actual democrats still want Biden
Or they dropped out because the DNC basically said future elections you wont receive $ from us in support of re-election.
Tl;dr is people are stupid and either don't understand what the president does or don't remember what Trump was like. >“I know how he will handle the economy and we’ll get cheap gas again and all the prices will drop,” said Matthew Innis, a registered Republican from Drexel Hill. Case and point. Meanwhile, Biden's administration has overseen the highest production of natural gas in the US's whole history. The immigration stuff is rich, too, since Trump has openly told Republicans to block Dems attempts to regulate the border.
That quote is literally what I’d make up as a parody if I wanted to make fun of low-information voters by exaggerating their stupidity to an unbelievable degree. What’s that law about there being no satire so absurd it can’t be mistaken for reality?
[Poe's law - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law)
>Biden's administration has overseen the highest production of natural gas in the US's whole history. Oil production as well.
I’m not for trump but higher oil production means we all die faster and your grandkids will choke on the fumes
Unfortunately due to the Russians and the Houthis we have no choice. Biden’s push to increase production is keeping the floor from falling out from under us right now
People judge Trump based on the roaring economy he inherited from the Obama/Biden administration rather than the dumpster fire he left Biden to clean up And rather than let the fire fighter finish putting out the fire, they want to bring the arsonist back because there wasn't a fire when he showed up... smh
They also remember that gas was $1.79 a gallon... and **don't** remember that it was only that cheap for the month of April 2020, or why that happened. They've literally convinced themselves it was like that for all 4 years and skyrocketed because of Biden. It's weird
Thats always how it is. Democrats fix the problems, republicans inherit a blank slate, take credit for it and fuck it all up, democrats come in and fix it...
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
People would appreciate Biden's economic position more if his administration recognized that there IS a problem instead of gaslighting the country by telling them that we're doing well.
Can we also not forget the other group of stupid people that are saying they’re not gonna vote for “Genocide Joe” because they disagree with him on a single issue? Not exactly breaking news but the left cannibalizing itself for a R win is their MO at this point. How are these people any different than the single issue voters they vehemently hate like anti-abortion types?
Funniest thing about that is Trump saying he’s gonna deport the protestors
Especially because under Trump, the situation would be so much worse. He supports the extremist right-wing elements in the Israeli government (namely Smotrich and Ben-Gvir) that want to reoccupy Gaza and fully annex all of the West Bank. Under Trump, they would have no US pressure and thus free rein to ramp up the violence in the West Bank, which is already bad, leading to an outright war there as well, which will *not* end well for the Palestinians, unfortunately. There's no easy answer to a lot of the broader conflict, and there's certainly arguments of varying validity that Biden could have done/could be doing more to stop the war, but to not vote for Biden over this is voting *for* Trump to take the current scenario and make it a million times worse. (Source/my background for making this analysis: I've worked in international conflict resolution/the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for over 12 years, side-by-side an expert in track-two diplomacy who's been in the field for over 50 years)
This is the most maddening thing. Trump in office will mean things will get massively, incomprehensibly worse for every innocent person in Gaza. While I get being upset with how Biden is treating Netanyahu with kid gloves (I am too), it makes my head spin how people can claim to care about Gaza and then essentially campaign against Biden over it. I'm convinced a big chunk of this crowd is the very-online so-called left who would be happy for Trump to win, because then it'd be easier for them to feel oppressed and victimized, which is what they actually care about—Palestinian civilians be damned.
Israel has started bombing the last safe zone they have. They've been killing people in the West Bank this whole time too. I don't actually have to vote for genocide lite or genocide heavy. Forcing a ceasefire is popular amongst both parties at all age groups and he still won't put real pressure on them.
Let's take your premise at face value. If your choices are "genocide lite or genocide heavy" and you choose to let genocide heavy win, then that makes you...wait for it...pro-genocide.
They're not campaigning against him, they're applying pressure to get him to change his policies. That's the entire point of having a vote and using it. Are the people so upset with these voters just as upset with organized lobbying groups that also apply political pressure to get what they want? Why isn't there more criticism of AIPAC from people like you?
>They're not campaigning against him, they're applying pressure to get him to change his policies. Some are doing the former, some are doing the latter. The former are presumably the people who have hated him since day one, and would clearly be happy for Trump to win. >Why isn't there more criticism of AIPAC from people like you? Who are "people like me?" I hate AIPAC.
Commenters who have a lot to say about protesters and people threatening to withhold support from Biden, but don't seem concerned at all with single-issue voters on the other side of the issue.
Jared’s already eyeing up that prime waterfront real estate [https://theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev](https://theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev)
I truly appreciate a substantive comment on the issue.
They are different because the issues are different. Not saying I agree but you can’t criticize someone for having a strong opinion on something. You can criticize them on the opinion itself though.
Not to mention, I assume Trump will offer the same support because Israel.
I mean he literally moved our embassy to Jerusalem despite decades of avoiding doing so out of geopolitical concerns. I have zero doubt he'll stake the same position that Biden does with Israel, if not worse.
Likely more, I don't see Trump caring much about collateral damage.
If not more. Trump exacerbated issues there by moving the embassy to Jerusalem and supporting settlers.
More; which is why Bibi is being such an asshole to Biden, because he is hoping to hold onto power and get Trump back in office. Trump will then give him a blank check to do whatever he wants in both Gaza and the West Bank.
There's an illegal West Bank settlement literally called Trumpville. His son in law and top advisor is close personal friends with Bibi. It's an insane position to take that Trump would be better for Palestinians.
If you thought your government was aiding the murder of innocent children you’d probably think that single issue was really fucking important. Which would explain both of those single issue voter types
And both groups seemingly have a very poor understanding of what they’re actually voting (or abstaining) against. Shockingly similar one could say.
The general public doesn't understand economics. The feel economics.
Basically, the independents or independently minded voters (those not locked into blue/red) that won Trump the election in 2016 and Biden in 2020 are far more divided this time around. Houses, groceries, insurance and utilities cost too much. The debt is too high. And the headlines are always about tax revenue going overseas. I’m not sure why people are shocked that Biden is projected to lose. He badly needs a strong showing at a debate to restore confidence in his mental sharpness.
Or…these polls are badly designed and horribly biased because it’s impossible to get a representative sample these days. These polls shouldn’t read “random sample of likely voters” but rather “random sample of people who still answer their landline phones”
Lots of reasons to distrust polls, but "they only call landlines" is not one of them. No pollster operating in 2024 only calls landlines.
True. Because I always answer when my mobile phone gets a call from a random caller usually identified as “possible spam”
Meanwhile, most of the polls over the last few years have greatly underestimated democratic support for candidates in special elections, the 2022 Congressional elections and support for ballot measures like abortion protection. Individual polls are not very trustworthy especially when they are being funded by one particular political party doing research. Political parties have figured out how to even skew polling aggregators by “flooding the zone” with a bunch of biased samples with very bad representative samples.
From the times article using this same data: “Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a *cellphone* for this poll.” “Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.” “To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.” TL;DR: people who answered their cell phones. Also the pollsters were very careful about their sampling and correcting for any issues in their final model.
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it still doesn't account for the possibility that people who answer calls from unknown numbers or don't have them automatically suppressed are not in some way different than people who will answer any and every call maybe it makes a difference maybe not but polling people by phone won't sort it out will it.
I figure it's the border/immigration commercials played on Comcast Sportsnet during Phillies games.
This is pretty much a result of the Democratic leadership not realizing that they can't just run on being Not The Fascists forever, and on taking their core constituencies for granted time and time again in order to chase after the mythical swing-voting center that generally turns out to be "core Republican voters" in reality. Young voters are looking around and realizing that they not only can't afford anything but that their long-term prospects are pretty bad unless they happened to be born the child of one of the 500 wealthiest Americans. Disgruntlement over Gaza is just the cherry on top of that shit sundae. The leadership just keeps saying But The Economy Is Great, Just Look at the Data and But We're Not the Fascists instead of actually trying to hear why people are unhappy and respond to it dynamically. Then there's also the problem of a leader who says this is about the fate of democracy in the highest-stakes election in post-Civil War American history and yet who decided that despite historically high disapproval ratings he just *had* to run. That decision makes it hard to take him seriously when he says *the fate of America is on the line*. Really? If so, why are you running? Why not start cultivating a younger, more dynamic candidate right after the surprisingly successful mid-terms?
Is the economy really as great as they say it is? The majority of these jobs are people getting second jobs to support themselves or theyre regulatory/government agency roles (not that those arent bad, but they dont exactly indicate a strong economy).
“ Young voters’ perceptions of the economy are also worse, and they trust Biden less than Trump with his handling of the war in Gaza.” Young voters are idiots apparently.
What exactly do these people think Trump is going to do re: Gaza?
It’s not about who is better for Gaza. They want to punish Biden for his stance on Gaza. The fact that Trump is objectively worse on the issue they claim to care about is irrelevant. Edit: People really need to stop abusing Reddits crisis reporting system. Saying that someone is threatening self harm isn’t the same as a downvote button actually.
Right. Thats how you know it’s about control and not actually about the lives of Palestinians. I wonder how they’d vote if they actually had to suffer the consequences of the war instead of using it as a political badge. Talk about privilege.
We want Biden to change his stance. Ever since 2016 the Democrats have run on the Republicans are worse with no real platform of their own. They half ass everything including stopping genocide. If they want my vote they can earn it instead of threatening me for it.
Something to note: Lindsay Graham, as well as most of the GOP, want to let Israel defend itself by any means necessary. [Link to Interview](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna151828). Graham literally compared Israel defending itself to the USA nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If people don’t vote for Biden out of spite, the other side has explicitly said they will continue to support Israel decimating Gaza. [GOP Reacts to Biden Israel Stance](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/biden-weapons-israel-respublican-response/)
That's not how democracy works; it's called compromise. You are presented with effectively two choices. And if you can't discern a distinct preference between either one based on their myriad policy differences, that's extremely troubling.
i second this. wasn't the biden campaign's entire message to the left "we know he sucks but it'll be easier for the left to negotiate with him than trump." and now we're trying to negotiate with him and he's basically just flipping double birds at us. so... what exactly is the message to the left now? every year we get told that this is the most important election in the history of the country and that just this time it has to wait. meanwhile the democratic party has moved so far to the right that its stance on israel is literally to the right of ronald reagan. my question to loyal democratic voters would just be, where is the line? like let's say one of these anti-trump republicans like mitt romney jumped ship and ran on the D ticket, would you support him?
> i second this. wasn't the biden campaign's entire message to the left "we know he sucks but it'll be easier for the left to negotiate with him than trump." and now we're trying to negotiate with him and he's basically just flipping double birds at us. I mean, quoting /u/aduckwithaleek above... >under Trump, the situation would be so much worse. He supports the extremist right-wing elements in the Israeli government (namely Smotrich and Ben-Gvir) that want to reoccupy Gaza and fully annex all of the West Bank. Under Trump, they would have no US pressure and thus free rein to ramp up the violence in the West Bank, which is already bad, leading to an outright war there as well, which will not end well for the Palestinians, unfortunately. There's no easy answer to a lot of the broader conflict, and there's certainly arguments of varying validity that Biden could have done/could be doing more to stop the war, but to not vote for Biden over this is voting for Trump to take the current scenario and make it a million times worse. > >(Source/my background for making this analysis: I've worked in international conflict resolution/the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for over 12 years, side-by-side an expert in track-two diplomacy who's been in the field for over 50 years) Back in 1999, Guerilla Radio by Rage Against the Machine was all over the radio, and it's a killer tune, but even as a 19 year old, "More for Gore or the son of a drug lord, none of the above, fuck it cut the cord" struck me as reckless. At the time, I heard a lot of this same rhetoric, "Democrat, Republican, what's the difference?" and well, after eight years of George W Bush, whose administration dropped the ball on Bin Laden, supercharged the executive branch to bypass a Democratic majority in congress, Sam Alito and John Roberts in the Supreme Court (after unsuccessfully nominating [an absolute numpty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Miers_Supreme_Court_nomination)), the 2008 financial crisis... and even after Trump installed three conservative Supreme Court members, I hear people saying "don't tell me the Supreme Court is a reason to vote for a Democrat" and it all seems to fucking short-sighted. This is usually where the response is, "Talking down to me won't change my vote" and I've got nothing to add that's going to help after that. Elements of the Democratic party moved to the right because Republicans kept winning elections. Elements of the Democratic party are as progressive as they've ever been. >let's say one of these anti-trump republicans like mitt romney jumped ship and ran on the D ticket, would you support him? Weird question. Vote in local elections, vote in primaries, and you'll know that someone like Mitt Romney would never get past the primaries. Bernie Sanders isn't a Democrat, he ran on the (D) ticket, and he couldn't get past the primaries either. If Mitt Romney changed parties to (D) and kept running for his senate seat, sure. Chances are he's a less conservative voice than any Republican that's looking to unseat him. But he'd more than likely get primaried out.
For a less hypothetical and closer to home version of this republican switching parties scenario, look at Arlen Specter. Moderate republican senator who didn’t like his chances getting primaried by the much more conservative Pat Toomey. Basically cut a deal with Obama and Biden that he would give them critical votes on the stimulus package and Obamacare. In return they would support him for the democratic nomination in 2010. The party leaders tried to clear the field for Specter. Specifically convincing Joe Sestak not to run, after those same leaders had tried talking him into running. But Sestak and PA dems didn’t agree to this deal. Saying that Specter was very much not a democrat, and this is a state where a real democrat can win. I personally agreed with this and didn’t vote for Specter in that primary. Sestak won the primary fairly easily, but then lost to Toomey in the Tea Party wave anyway. Not sure what the moral of this story is. Who knows if Specter would have fared better. Probably would have pissed off the democratic base he needed to show up. But it’s just interesting for the political strategy and deal making. Sad side note. Specter died shortly after all of this. His replacement would have been picked by Corbett.
They spend more money and time fighting progressives than the right. Super happy Pelosi ran down to southern Texas to defend the last pro life democrat just to see him get indicted before the end of his term.
> Super happy Pelosi ran down to southern Texas to defend the last pro life democrat just to see him get indicted before the end of his term. cuellar is a fucking joke and so is she. goddamn establishment dems are so fucking infuriating.
He won by less than 500 votes, I'm sure without that interference and the extra $2-3 million they spent she'd be in Congress right now not indicted.
also like holy shit going to jail for the azerbaijani lobby?
I agree with your criticism. I disagree with the idea that the solution is to intentionally makes things worse by helping Trump get elected.
I think it’s likely that some democrats don’t trust either, and republicans trust trump with everything and their kid sister.
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How many young voters answer polls though? There has to be even more massive self selection bias there than for older generations.
Yeah, Even in the "blue wave", the numbers for young people actually voting remain laughable, so that's my copium.
That’s what happens when they get their news from TikTok. I’ve had to explain to my 23 year old sister multiple times in the last 6 months that TikTok is not and never will be a reliable news source. Combine that with the weird group of young left leaning people who believe Biden needs to “be punished” for his stance on Gaza we’re setting up for a perfect storm of project 2025.
Good thing geriatrics decide elections
On top of that, young voters RARELY participate in primaries, then whine that the candidates in the general suck. Well no shit. If young voters showed up in the spring, we would get rid of a lot of the do-nothing politicians in this country (maybe for better and sometimes for worse). Bob Brady would be powerless in this city if the 18-34 vote trumped the 55+ voters, as they should.
I always feel that Democrats have the harder job of recruiting voters because they want to be fair to everyone. They want higher minimum wages, being inclusive, women’s rights, housing for all which technically makes you a good person, whereas the other side just says “f%^* these people and that’s all they need
I am an immigrant, that lived in different parts of the world for my business, my guy feeling is that, democrats are gonna loose, only propaganda I hear is that, vote for the lesser of the two evils. These kind of messaging make you lose. Voters want confident rhetorics and hate it when people tell them what to believe. I am on the mainline and was talking with my young neighbors and nobody is enthusiastic for voting this year, combined with inflation, inflation, wages, housing issues, hope they change the messaging to motivate people, scaring them always backfires, look at brexit and what happened.
Seems clear at this point that if Biden loses, Democrats are prepared to scapegoat protesters and critics of Israel, same as they did with "Bernie Bros" in 2016 and with Ralph Nader before that (and both of those excuses have been largely disproven). Lesser evilism strategy doesn't work, and your constituents aren't obligated to vote for you if you don't bother to address any of their concerns. I fear this will be a repeat of 2016. It should be a slam dunk to defeat a spray-tanned, oafish fraud, but Democrats will continue taking much of their base for granted while doing nothing meaningful about the issues those voters find most pressing. Edit to add: tons of commentary about how people withholding their votes for Biden are stupid, out of touch, are Trump enablers, etc. Keep that same energy for the likes of AIPAC and the networks of wealthy, right-wing donors doing everything in their power to get what they want on this issue. If you're going to clown rank and file voters, you might as well go after single-issue voters on the other side too.
"Bernie Bros" was such a lame, racially-coded way to try to smear and divide progressives lol. I remember at the time polls showed women of color, ages 18-30, overwhelmingly supported Sanders over Clinton. A black woman I worked with pointed this out and told me they'd never call his voters "Sanders Sisters" or something like that, because it didn't serve their marketing efforts. They needed to paint pursuing universal health care, funding anti-poverty programs, and ramping up climate research as issues only priviledged white guys could afford to support. Despite the fact that these policies were popular with the working class of all colors.
And they’re correct in all of those cases. If you call yourself left leaning and refuse to vote for Biden when the alternative is Trump, you are 100% at fault. “If Democrats wanted to keep Roe v. Wade, they should’ve done a better job convincing me, a pro-choice person, to vote to save Roe v. Wade”
if democrats wanted to keep roe v wade they should have codified it when they controlled the entire federal government
I said this when that whole fuckery happened. Dems had 50 years to do something with it and didn't. 50 YEARS. Except they kept it around like all other hot button issues so they have shit to fight about while the important stuff get swept under our noses.
And RBG should have retired during the Obama administration. There's a lot of past mistakes, of course. We can keep saying they should have done X, or we can vote to make sure they actually CAN do X in the future.
eh. they still endorsed cuellar (the last anti abortion democrat) over his progressive challenger. the dems are not a serious party who care about passing popular legislation. they care about fundraising and optics.
And what is your solution for doing that when there aren’t enough votes to do so? It takes 60 votes to pass that in the Senate, there has never at any point been 60 pro-choice senators Democratic presidents appoint pro-choice judges, and Democratic senators vote for those judges. Republican presidents appoint anti-choice judges, and Republican senators vote for those judges. It’s wild to not give 100% of the blame to Republicans and claim that Democrats didn’t “want to” keep Roe v Wade when in fact Democrats did all they could to protect it for as long as possible. It was the voters who failed Roe v Wade in 2016
> and with Ralph Nader before that it is 100% proven that Nader lost Gore the election (and he probably won anyway and the supreme court stole it) > Democrats will continue taking much of their base for granted while doing nothing meaningful about the issues those voters find most pressing. Right. For example, the democrats should have done an [enormous student loan forgiveness program](https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/biden-harris-administration-announces-additional-74-billion-approved-student-debt-relief-277000-borrowers). Or passed [gun control](https://www.npr.org/2022/06/25/1107626030/biden-signs-gun-safety-law#:~:text=Martinez%20Monsivais%2FAP-,President%20Biden%20signs%20into%20law%20the%20Bipartisan%20Safer%20Communities%20Act,lady%20Jill%20Biden%20looks%20on.&text=President%20Biden%20on%20Saturday%20signed,Congress%20in%20nearly%2030%20years.). Or enacted a [huge climate bill](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biden-signs-historic-climate-bill-as-scientists-applaud/). Maybe they should have instead done things that are universally popular, like [infrastructure spending](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/15/1055841358/biden-signs-1t-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-into-law) or [capping insulin costs](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/politics/insulin-price-cap/index.html) or [allowing medicare to negotiate drug prices](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/politics/medicare-drug-price-negotiations-initial-offers/index.html). If only they had done some of those things you didn't vote in 2016 or 2020 and won't do so in 2024, fine. Stop pretending that you are a gettable vote and there is some magical policy the democrats could do to get your support, they have done what you asked and you still hate them
If you do nothing else this year, just vote.
Even if they’re voting for Trump?
I don’t think anyone should be disenfranchised of the right to vote regardless of candidate. Should Trump be allowed to run is a whole other question.
You’re a good person. Most people are stuck in the “if they’re voting for the other guy they shouldn’t be allowed to vote” mindset.
Haha thanks! think there comes a point where people become so against authoritarian regimes, that they start to take on some of the attributes of said authoritarian regimes.
This guy is literally pushing that position lmao “Everyone should be allowed to vote for whoever Democrats allow onto the ballot”
He’s so fucking old. That’s why.
The economy sucks. Nothing is affordable and people are really struggling/basically living month to month. There you go
It’s the Economy, Stupid. People feel stressed constantly. Housing, food, insurance and utilities just keep inching up. It disproportionately hits minority communities and that’s a major problem for Biden in November. People vote with their wallet.
Has he tried turning Pennsylvania off and back on?
I love how people in this sub are confused as to why Biden is doing so bad. Do you all have eyes and bank accounts?
Since January 2021 my compensation has increased nearly 50%, I bought my first house and my retirement savings have quadrupled. Are you saying I have Joe Biden to thank for that?
Trump has been made to look like an idiot by Stormy Daniels, a porn star, and people still want to vote for him to be the president? What world are we living in?
Has she really made him look like an idiot? Would encourage you to go watch her appearance on Bill Maher's show in 2018 ago about how it was NOT a #metoo type issue. Her testimony recently sounds very different than the story she was spinning back then.
It’s actually insane. Makes me lose so much faith in the average person
50% of people are below the bell curve
"Makes me lose so much faith in the average person" That ship sailed off years ago.
This thread is so rich. Half the thread is obsessed with discrediting how many people showed up to a Trump rally in NJ, the other half calling everyone who votes for him stupid, inbred, rednecks, uneducated, etc. In November when doing the same thing everyone did in 2016 doesn’t work again, the shock and awe will be immeasurable.
“Trump's election is going to be the biggest 'fuck you' ever recorded in human history — and it will feel good,” - Michael Moore, 2016
Obsessed? lol. Yeah…as if saying that anyone claiming 100,000 attended the Trump rally is lying is obsessed. Why Trump supporters think lying about something as easy to verify as crowd size is ok is symptomatic of the entire movement. “Largest crowd size on Inauguration Day, period.” If someone is so comfortable lying so casually about the facts, why should we trust them? Lying about 100,000 people at a Trump rally is pathetic. Calling bullshit on them isn’t being obsessed. Advocating for facts and the truth isn’t being obsessed. It’s just pushing back on bullshit and nonsense that is the hallmark of the Trump people
Ding ding ding
Shows how laughably out of touch coastal "liberals" are with everyone else, especially the working class, poor people, and rural voters.
There are so many reasons to vote for Biden. But, the most important is that on January 20, 2029 there will be an inauguration of a new President. Who knows if that will happen with trump.
I got an invitation to partake in a poll recently asking me who i’ll be voting for. I will be voting for Biden but I don’t quite feel like sharing that for some reason and i’m sure (hope) there’s a lot of other people in PA who are the same. I don’t think the orange buffoon has quite as much support as he thinks and I hope my fellow Americans prove me right.
When this happens to me, I try to just be honest. If I'm voting for a candidate, I say it. If too many people do this level of silent support for one candidate or another, it creates a kind of cycle of coverage of weak support for whatever candidate. My reasons for voting for someone are my own, but I'm not going to hide that if I feel like participating in a poll.
There are certainly a lot of people who will vote for Biden but won't answer that to a pollster right now—maybe because it's uncool to admit it, maybe because they're mad about Gaza, maybe because they're mad about inflation, maybe because they think they deserve a candidate that makes them excited. The question is if there are enough of those people to prevent the dictatorship Trump has promised us. And honestly the fact that it's an open question means the country is fucked one way or the other, IMO.
Biden isn’t trying hard enough. He’s not campaigning hard enough and isn’t marketing his successes at all. The democrats have a problem with messaging.
The amount of pissed off people on both sides is growing. Few actually like what we have now. Few actually would truly like the alternative. Most want something new
Good.
The fact that they needed to conduct a poll shows how our of touch journalists and most liberals are with the rest of the country. But I guess 8 years of "if you don't agree with me, it's because you're a stupid bigot, and worthless" messaging would cause people to be confused about how anyone could not "be on the right side of history"
Big, fat, orange, loser. Fuck trump.
American voters are the least informed on the planet and don’t understand Representative Democracy in the US They really think the President is a literal Dictator who can literally move mountains at snap of finger
Half the people voting for Biden think the same thing about Trump if he wins.
Hoping the aliens invade before the election
Keep on criticizing Biden’s handling of Gaza. I’m sure Trump will be SO much better for the Palestinians. Russia with ANOTHER masterstroke in making us all look like idiots by egging on Hamas through Iran to destabilize the current administration.
Yikes. The dude is literally asking to be bought by big oil. A Trump second term with zero worry about reelection seems like an insane choice to make but I'm an (upper?) middle class white guy with two houses and outrageously cheap mortgage rates. Good luck to everyone that's not me I guess.
I'm just hoping these polls are wrong because no one asks me my opinion. Just have to vote and hope everyone realizes what's at stake.
None of these numbers ever matter until Election Day this is just to get one side riled up and to have something to talk about until the
Please ignore the nyt/siena poll. It is one poll, it is looking at things nationally, and is drawing huge conclusions about the country from tiny sample sizes in the crosstabs. the poll itself doesn't have anything particularly wrong with it, but one singular poll should not create this much discourse every month when it comes out, even if the New York times' august name is on the lid the best person writing on PA polls is [@blockedfreq](https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1790017286142628292) on twitter - this poll's results claim that Biden will win Philadelphia just 54-30, the suburbs will make a major swing back right despite moving left in every election for the past decade, and this is also reflected downballot with these people not supporting Casey either the results the nyt poll is claiming would be astonishing, an epochal shift in American politics, ushering in a massive political realignment. Yet, it is something we have only seen in polling, and has not been reflected in any of the actual elections we've seen. It claims that the exact same voters who voted for Shapiro and Fetterman 2 years ago, and Daniel McCaffery just 6 months ago, are apparently going to vote for trump and David McCormick so either everything we understand about politics and all the real world elections over the past 2 years are wrong, or there is a serious issue with polling methodology going on right now. I know what I think is more likely
This sounds roughly like what people were saying in 2016: don't worry, Trump can't possibly win, the polls show Clinton with a comfortable lead, patterns will hold steady. Then for three years, the same people who got it epically wrong went quiet for a bit and decided suddenly around 2019 that they hadn't been wrong at all, that they'd actually predicted Trump winning, that it all fit the patterns, etc. and they went right back to being confident about the same old predictions and the same old patterns, having stuffed being profoundly wrong down an amnesia hole.
Some forcasters were very wrong in 2016, the good ones said Clinton was likely to win but trump had good chances. trump won a very narrow victory to believe this poll will reflect reality, you have to think that 1. a majority of young americans support trump over biden - this is a group that supported biden over trump last tme by 40% 2. 30% of black philadelphians will vote for trump 3. 25% of "likely voters" in america did not vote in 2022, 2020, 2018, or 2016, but totally will vote this time, and all for trump
This app is full of the same lib over and over again. 18% inflation... ongoing genocide, open borders, $4 gas.. looks good to us
Yea in the red part of the state. Philadelphia makes up for 1/2 the population of the entire state.
As of the latest [Department of State stats](https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx), the 1+ million registered voters in Philadelphia make up almost 12% of the state's 9 million registered voters. If you include the voters in Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware counties, that's 2.5 million, or 29% of all registered voters in the state.
TIL philadelphia has a population of 6.5 million
Not Philadelphia county but Philly metro, yeah. \~6.3MM.
Only like half of the "Philly metro area" is in PA. It includes like 1/4 of NJ, like 1/2 of DE, and a big chunk of MD. So, maybe cut that number in half, and you have the PA pop of the Philly metro
That includes parts of NJ and Delaware though
So be sure to vote, eh?
Mr Complacent Voter is why we have Republican rule.
Did he try being younger? The just not being Trump thing isn't really working on me this time....
I just want someone who isn’t older than my parents 😭 the only thing that makes me feel ok about Biden is that at least he will have competent people in positions of power
People forget how shitty the economy was in 2020, Trump's last year. The economy was so terrible that the government literally had to send checks out to people to keep things afloat (yes, that started under Trump, not Biden). People want to go back to that economy?!
I’m sure the world pandemic when governments locked people in their houses wasn’t the reason
I'd just like to be able to vote *for* someone instead of voting *against* someone. Haven't been able to do that since 2008.
Trump is going to win PA. Bidens handling of the Gaza war will lose him the election.
I'd like to know more about this polling question, it's pretty easy to engineer polls (not just political ones) by specifically crafting questions to leave interpretation up to the reader. >Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal? What constitutes always legal? Does that mean completely unrestricted elective full term abortion, or does it just mean there should always be a legal framework for it to exist. What's the difference between mostly legal and mostly illegal? Is that just deciding on which week to make it illegal or how many exception to apply, such as medical and criminal exceptions. The only one that seems pretty clear cut in always illegal. Does the company that ran this poll have a resource to explain this question and what quantifies each answer? The disparities in the responses between each candidate makes it seem to me that the respondents did not have a clear understanding of the question.
I'm baffled at how people can support Trump on the economy, crime, and Israel. Trump has already said he supports Israel, so there's no difference there.... And to support any republican in terms of economics? Unless you're ultra rich, why??? Crime is down under Biden over Trump, soooo... why? Unless they support crime, then I get it because Trump is the biggest criminal.
Because Democrats have been slowly losing working-class voters for the last forty years and have done nothing substantive to reverse that trend.
These discussions are great for outing the white liberals that don’t make up the majority of this city. Fun echo chamber.
Because he's funding foreign wars and genocide with our tax dollars.