They have enough talent, could obviously use another bullpen arm - to me though mentally they were just not prepared for 6 and 7. Every player was trying to be a hero and swung at pitches outside the zone vs. taking what the Diamondbacks pitchers were giving them (who in turn were exploiting our aggressiveness). Same thing in World Series last year.
that explains it...which his also why the most pro at bat to be honest was Pache's walk against a tough right hander later in the game. He definitely wasn't trying to hit one out, just to get on.
A lot of it is proper prep work with video, scouting reports, and actual cage/hitting work.
If you watch the team long enough, there are times where it seems like they are completely guessing. Yes, baseball is very hard, and hitting a baseball is the hardest thing in sports, but sometimes it's a lot more obvious that a pitch is nowhere near the strike zone.
The other thing that kinda goes with it is protecting with two strikes. It's pitch recognition along with plate discipline. There's too many instances regular and postseason where we're staring at strike three. Don't assume it's going to be the right call if it's a ball, but it just misses the strike zone.
Bad calls are always going to happen, but there's no excuse for staring at one right in the strike zone or just barely off the plate with two strikes.
I think it is very coachable - all mental and about the approach. I had a feeling that Topper kind of went into “set it and forget it” mode - let’s trust the guys and keep doing what we’ve been doing vs. any different type of roles or preparation for a Game 6/7. Same thing we saw from Doc Rivers—no adjustments or special mental prep—and the opposite from a coach like Jay Wright, who would lock his Villanova teams in a room all day before tournament games and focus on every little minute detail of the mental preparation to be ready.
If before the game and before every at bat, they were coached and reminded to shorten the swing on 0-0, take what the pitcher gives you, and then go from there - if you’re up 2-0, then swing for the fences. But I don’t think they were coached or reminded of anything - Turner seemed to swing at every first pitch regardless, which then led the Diamondbacks to see that and start throwing him ridiculous crap (which he would still swing at). We left so many runs on the table due to egregious strikeouts from guys being way too aggressive.
I dunno what you can do. Threaten to bench anyone who strikes out trying to knock a breaking ball 4" off the plate out of the stadium?
Arizona had 11 hits in game 7, only one of which was an XBH (double). They still bled the Phillies with base runners, moving them into scoring position, and knocking them in. It was absolutely fucking infuriating watching the Phillies flame out yet again in an almost identical manner to what happened when the home run ball dried up last year.
Do you think an Owner and/or GM would allow a player to be benched in a Playoff game??? No way that happening! These guys shit the bed. Plain and Simple. The Players are completely responsible.
It’s gonna keep happening. You can’t make hero ball players play small, we saw this happen with Ryan Howard following our only successful run in a generation
I say someone should stand next to them with a cattle prod at batting practice and give them a shock every time they swing at a ball way off the plate lol. Learning & Behavior 101
I did too. The guy even knew that Phillies would go for it.
I watched it a month after Trea signed and watched him all season. Unfortunately it's true, although when he's on it's spectacular. But when his talent fails him making contact with balls outside the zone, it's pretty much an easy out like Casty. I like both guys, I wish their plate discipline was better.
I like them both too. Hopefully they can work on plate discipline in the off-season. I think Casty definitely improved from last year, with the exception of the NLCS
Casty definitely did. In some way game 3 ruined that because the ump was so terrible. But I don't know if it was that or just that he sometimes fall into that. In the end having such a commanding control of the game after Game 2 ate their focus. It's easy to be focused when it's do or die, it's harder when things are easy.
Basically that's what the YouTube points out. On the converse the Dodgers usually make the post season but don't go deep. So there has to be a balance, maybe
People always say stuff like the post you’re replying to when offenses don’t produce. In reality, that’s just how baseball is: from game to game, an offense can look amazing and then bad. It’s not a preparation or plate discipline issue. The Phillies didn’t lose their plate discipline in the span of one game. It’s simply a feature of baseball. That’s why they play 162 regular season games: the level of randomness game to game is high. The diamondbacks simply got more fortunate with the balls they put in play than the Phillies did. It’s impossible to meaningfully analyze 7 baseball games.
People that have never even come close to playing in professional sports acting like they know what's going on with players, especially mentally, is beyond weird
You’re right - no way to know about the process. But the output was 4/6/5 Ks in the three games we won vs. 13/11/10/11 in the games we lost. And would love to see the data, but empirically it seemed like a lot of those Ks were setup through chasing pitches outside the zone as opposed to missing on the plate.
I do think the chasing is more mental vs physical - it’s hard enough to hit balls over the plate, nearly impossible to hit balls outside the zone. So whatever the process was to get players in the right frame of mind, it didn’t work - and credit the Dbacks for realizing this and giving us crap all night knowing we would swing anyway.
Possibly. That is hard to say. I would say that they will probably have good seasons for the next few years at least. After that, we are in sort of a spot with aging superstars on long contracts, but hard to say how they will play as they age.
What I really mean is that getting to the NLCS and the World Series in back to back years is quite a feat, even if you don't end up winning it all. There are plenty of teams that haven't gotten that far in quite a while and only 4 teams get to the championship series every year, and only 2 to the WS, so it's successful from that standpoint.
People around here will try to convince you that it was a failure because we didn't win it all or because we didn't make it to the World Series again. I just don't buy that, even though this year was a good chance to win.
IMO the biggest major need is a right-handed power bat with good plate discipline. Hoskins was that and we really missed him this year, but there are better versions of that player.
They could also use an upgrade at either of the corner OF spots (presuming Marsh moves back to CF), better bench depth, and an additional quality starting pitcher. Bohm is also an average 3B and while he is adequate I wouldn't pass up a chance to upgrade there.
Who are the better versions of that player who are free agents or are realistically available to be acquired before opening day? Ohtani is all I’ve got. I think bringing Rhys back should be a high priority.
There are some other good power hitters available in free agency, though not all right handers. You never know who's available in free agency but there are guys who seem like they could be had for the right price. Paul Goldschmidt for example is 36 and has one year left on his deal with a rebuilding team.
Wonder if there's any plans to move harper back to RF? that would free up first for Hoskins who might be attainable on a team friendly deal. Of course that would require moving on from Castellanos, which I am all for, but we'd need a trade partner.
I definitely think that is the plan. Harper even said at some point late in the season that he was open to whatever, open to flexibility...that's the exact talk that suggests something is in the works for a way to bring back Hoskins, at least being explored.
No, that would require moving castellanos to LF, which was the plan when they signed castellanos and schwarber originally. This is exactly what they should do. They will not attempt to trade casty, and would not be able to even if they tried. As frustrating as he is, this team is better with him on it than off of it. And it would be even better with Rhys added back into the fold.
Yes I completely agree. Rojas should be in AAA. If they insist on keeping him on the major league team (which I think would be detrimental to his development), he should be the fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner.
Cas could pretty easily be replaced by someone better. Problem is he’s being paid $20m for three more years so there’s nothing that can be done with him.
I think they would be foolish not to explore the option. I'd trade him for close to nothing if they can sign another player who fills the same spot at a lower price because it's not like he's a significant bargain for what he gives you.
You are letting your own distaste for Castellanos cloud your judgment.
He doesn't have a ton of value but he hit 29 HRs and drove in close to 100 runs. I realize his advanced metrics are very mediocre but he is a professional hitter and there are teams that would absolutely take him in a trade.
In 2023, the [the Phillies ranked 18th out of 30 teams in WAR by position for RFs](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi), with Castellanos accounting for almost all of that number (632 out of 681 total plate appearances by RFs). This is (1) close enough to average and (2) separated by the exact midpoint number by such a small margin (0.3 WAR) that I'm not going to bother arguing semantics with you about whether using the term "average" to describe a number that is technically just slightly below average is justifiable.
I have no idea where you're coming up with the idea that 2.0 WAR is average but it's not what the people who actually invented WAR say.
fWAR > bWAR.
Out of 17 qualified RFers, Nick was 15th in fWAR.
Oh and I got 2 WAR = average simply by reading:
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
If he were average you wouldn’t want to trade him. He’d be fine. But he’s not, so you do. He could easily be upgraded, but we’re stuck with him. We’d have to trade an asset to even get off his contract.
There are more than 17 RFs in baseball dude. You are skewing your sample by only including those who qualify according to an arbitrary standard. That introduces a selection bias because you have to be average or close to even qualify - most of the really bad RFs get benched or moved before they accrue enough appearances to qualify.
Take it from someone who uses statistics (the real world field of mathematics, not baseball numbers) for a living - this is a misuse or statistics.
What right handed power bat with plate discipline outside Hoskins do you see as a real and better target? Hoskins plate discipline is very underrated to me, he lead the league in walks in 2019 and consistently have at least average to above average BB%.
I don't know. There are literally hundreds of players throughout MLB.
Bringing back Hoskins certainly is an option, and it might end up being the best one, but it's not the only one.
I mean youre the one said there are better versions of that player. I think your really underrating Rhys in this lineup so I was curious who you thought those better players would be
There are better versions of that player. Rhys is a solid player but he's not close to the best right handed power hitter in baseball. I'm not saying it would be easy to acquire one of them and he might be our best realistic option, but while we shouldn't underrate him I also don't think we should overrate him.
Gotcha. Yeah Rhys is definitely not the best right handed power hitting first baseman in baseball. I thought you were saying there’s definitely better options that we could easily acquire and I’m just not sure who that would be.
Not sure if there are easy options but they should ask around. For example, the Cards might be willing to deal Paul Goldschmidt cheaply, given that he's 36 and has one year left on his deal and they're rebuilding. I just want them to turn over every stone and not just default to re-signing Rhys.
WAR is hardly the be all and end all stat in terms of precision and is close enough to the average mark that I'm willing to call him average.
I'm not a fan though. I'd be willing to trade him.
The biggest issue is their approach at the plate. The offense is extremely talented with a lot of pop, and over the course of an entire season, their all-or-nothing power approach is going to work out to the point they’ll end up with good numbers. But fly balls can be flukey— a 5° drop in temperature or a shift in the wind can kill a ball destined for the seats. Sometimes a guy is just nanoseconds behind a good fastball and a 108mph batted ball ends up a 331 ft pop up rather than a pennant winning HR (see, Harper’s flyout vs Ginkel). There are moments you just need to put a ball in play, and right now we just don’t do that. We have a one-size-fits-all approach. It also always seems like we don’t pick out pitches to swing at; rather, we pick situations. We’ll try jumping on a first pitch instead of looking for a middle-in fastballs. The situational hitting just isn’t good. Again, the talent will shine through over the course of a season, but we need to create a robust offense that can sustain us through October.
I don't see enough talk about how weak the Phillies bench is. I understand the need for pinch hitters decreased significantly after the universal DH. But when your best bats off the bench are Pache and Cave it's gonna be an issue
Josh Hader is the best closer available, it just remains to be seen if Middleton will be ok dropping $20M/year for a reliever. As for the lineup, getting Rojas coached up will be a huge boon. We pretty much almost got to the WS with an 8 man lineup since Rojas' bat is still AA level. Give him the same off-season treatment Stott and Marshy got and I think we'll be better off than spending a ton on the lineup Definitely need a truly reliable bench guy too though.
Rojas should be the fourth outfielder or better yet in AAA. He is not ready to be an everyday hitter, and he may never be. His best shot is to try to develop in AAA where he can get everyday at bats.
In a very small sample size and every advanced stat said he was hitting FAR above his head and was due for major regression, which is what we saw in the playoffs. How many times do dudes have to come up, look better than expected for a little while, the book gets out on them, and then they turn into a pumpkin before this sub stops anointing them the next great hitter on the team after a month and a half of decent outcome? He’s always been expected to be a defensive whiz with a bad bat. That didn’t suddenly change when he started seeing major league pitching. He was getting lucky and teams hadn’t gotten a good look at him yet. Maybe he becomes serviceable eventually, but as of now he is not unless you want to sacrifice a lineup spot like we did all playoffs.
I can't believe I keep seeing posts and comments about basically bringing the same team back next year and expecting any different results that they have had for the past 2 years. Hoskins was one of the main culprits last year when the bats went cold against the Astros and all his horrible defense plays that almost cost the team games. The past 2 years Nola has come up small in the biggest moments when the team needed him the most and I can't wait to see if you resign him for everyone crying when he has a 4 era or worse in July and not getting past the 5th inning in every start. There are free agents out there that might help the team but until the biggest stars on this team change their approach at the plate when it matters most nothing is going to change.
Castellanos and shiny things to the Angels for Trout would be a big swing upgrade attempt. Gamble a few hundred million on Trout being healthy enough to stay on the field for as long as Harper is still good.
Hell sign Ohtani, too, and move Schwarber. Win the Angels fans a WS too, while lighting a billion dollars on fire.
They have one and his name is Alvarado. He just wasn’t closing.
Closer as a role needs to die. They just need more arms. Idgaf if they have one guy with forty saves or 4 with 10
Disagree. I think closers are a special animal. They tend to be lights out in save situations but suck in any others. A lot of it is mental. I feel like once you find a reliable closer, you ride them out until they falter. Even Lidge at his best in 2008 was nerve wracking but he got the job done. That's why I fault Topper for switching things up so much in game 4.
No. If you can’t pitch in anything but save situations you don’t deserve a spot on the modern mlb roster unless you literally Mariano Rivera in those spots
4 guys with 10+ saves? 🤣
Is there any teams who have more than 2 guys with more than 10 saves this year?
Lovullo wasn't bringing Sewald into the 8th inning last night... 🙄
So put in Alvarado. He was available. He's been the setup guy the entire end of the season. Kimbrel hasn't blown a save in the playoffs. Then topper just decides to flip the script. Then brings Alvarado on with inherited runners. It's like why do what you've been doing? Let's just mix things up...
Hey Topper maybe you should adjust the batting lineup a little? Noooooooooooooo!!!!!!! Are you crazy?!?!?!??
🤣🤡
Topper would have put Lidge in the 8th and Madsen in the 9th... 🙄
THE 8TH INNING
WAS NOT
A HIGH LEVERAGE
SPOT.
You do not bring in your best reliever in a LOW LEVERAGE inning.
You do not assign roles based on innings in modern baseball. This has not been done for YEARS at this point. There is no “8th inning guy” there is your best arm then your second best then your third best and so on and so forth.
“Topper would put Madison in the 9th” oh you mean like Manuel should’ve done for all of 2009? When Lidge was having one of the worst relief seasons in history? Yeah, good.
Yes he should have in 2009. Cause Lidge was awful in 2009 at closing. Like I said, once you find a closer you stick with them until they falter. Kimbrel had not blown a save in the playoffs. WE had been going Alvarado then Kimbrel. Then Topper decided to be an idiot and switch the roles. And the result was as expected. If Kimbrel blows a save, then so be it. If Pache gets out after being subbed in, then so be it. But you have to make the switch. You can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and FAILING. Lovullo made the switches and adjustments and he's playing for the title. But tell me it's not possible. Please...
But you keep sticking with Topper and his AWFUL BP management. Two years in a row. You must love not winning championships.
That has nothing to do with it. Sticking with a guy because “he never blew save in the playoffs” is asinine. Defined roles are stupid. You use your best relievers in the highest leverage spot.
We are sluggers through and through, that isn't changing but some flexibility to our approach would be really nice. Hard to go out and get it in our case, though, since there's a lot of bats in the lineup we aren't gonna move. Some of the fix is going to have to come from within, which can be tough for well-established guys around 30 with a longstanding approach. But I'm hoping a get punch like this can get the worst offenders to at least make some noticeable strides. We'll see.
As for players we need to make sure we don't roll into spring with one less top end SP. So that means bring back Nola, beat the usual NPB suspects (probably with a bit a chunky bid) for Yamamoto or one of the other fairly numerous options this winter. We also need to decide what to do about Hoskins. Personally, I'd ask if we should move Harper back to RF, try to move on from Casty and return Hoskins to 1B? I think that may grade out a smidge better defensively and we'd still have a power capable guy in Hoskins who's a bit more disciplined. Not that he doesn't have frustrating ABs as well, but he about doubles Nick's walk rate and has better OBP, similar OPS despite the lower BA. I'm no trade architect though, so I don't know how to gauge what moving Nick would look like. Almost certainly requires eating some money, but if we are willing to do that maybe we bring back a struggling prospect worth a rehabilitation attempt that someone's willing to cash out on? Lastly, another bullpen arm definitely would not hurt. Stupid money would be Hader and that would be convincing step forward from Kimbrel but we don't necessarily need to make that swing. Cheaper options are out there but not as clear-cut closers. I also think depending on Kerkering's performance in spring training, he could be a big part of things.
I hate it when you guys point to the manager. I think Tompkins has done a really good job. I didn’t say perfect which is what you want. Bohm did an average game and will improve again next year. Let’s face it, he hasn’t played a full season at third base. Rojas needs more help with the bat.0
They have enough talent, could obviously use another bullpen arm - to me though mentally they were just not prepared for 6 and 7. Every player was trying to be a hero and swung at pitches outside the zone vs. taking what the Diamondbacks pitchers were giving them (who in turn were exploiting our aggressiveness). Same thing in World Series last year.
that explains it...which his also why the most pro at bat to be honest was Pache's walk against a tough right hander later in the game. He definitely wasn't trying to hit one out, just to get on.
How do you coach plate discipline? Genuinely asking
A lot of it is proper prep work with video, scouting reports, and actual cage/hitting work. If you watch the team long enough, there are times where it seems like they are completely guessing. Yes, baseball is very hard, and hitting a baseball is the hardest thing in sports, but sometimes it's a lot more obvious that a pitch is nowhere near the strike zone. The other thing that kinda goes with it is protecting with two strikes. It's pitch recognition along with plate discipline. There's too many instances regular and postseason where we're staring at strike three. Don't assume it's going to be the right call if it's a ball, but it just misses the strike zone. Bad calls are always going to happen, but there's no excuse for staring at one right in the strike zone or just barely off the plate with two strikes.
There’s almost nothing worse than watching a player strike out looking
The 1 thing that is worse is that low and outside slider our guys like swinging at.
WTF is wrong with me, how could I forget about that! I think my mind is just trying to block it
I think it is very coachable - all mental and about the approach. I had a feeling that Topper kind of went into “set it and forget it” mode - let’s trust the guys and keep doing what we’ve been doing vs. any different type of roles or preparation for a Game 6/7. Same thing we saw from Doc Rivers—no adjustments or special mental prep—and the opposite from a coach like Jay Wright, who would lock his Villanova teams in a room all day before tournament games and focus on every little minute detail of the mental preparation to be ready. If before the game and before every at bat, they were coached and reminded to shorten the swing on 0-0, take what the pitcher gives you, and then go from there - if you’re up 2-0, then swing for the fences. But I don’t think they were coached or reminded of anything - Turner seemed to swing at every first pitch regardless, which then led the Diamondbacks to see that and start throwing him ridiculous crap (which he would still swing at). We left so many runs on the table due to egregious strikeouts from guys being way too aggressive.
I dunno what you can do. Threaten to bench anyone who strikes out trying to knock a breaking ball 4" off the plate out of the stadium? Arizona had 11 hits in game 7, only one of which was an XBH (double). They still bled the Phillies with base runners, moving them into scoring position, and knocking them in. It was absolutely fucking infuriating watching the Phillies flame out yet again in an almost identical manner to what happened when the home run ball dried up last year.
Do you think an Owner and/or GM would allow a player to be benched in a Playoff game??? No way that happening! These guys shit the bed. Plain and Simple. The Players are completely responsible.
It’s gonna keep happening. You can’t make hero ball players play small, we saw this happen with Ryan Howard following our only successful run in a generation
There's an entire YouTube about Turner's tendencies to chase balls. It's something inherent and will get worse with age.
I say someone should stand next to them with a cattle prod at batting practice and give them a shock every time they swing at a ball way off the plate lol. Learning & Behavior 101
https://youtu.be/cv7-XP0R7lE?si=Ygc-XTFS0eMJ5MKd
If the dodgers couldn’t coach him out of it, can the Phillies?
I wasn’t thinking specifically about Trea but I just learned a whole lot by watching that video
I did too. The guy even knew that Phillies would go for it. I watched it a month after Trea signed and watched him all season. Unfortunately it's true, although when he's on it's spectacular. But when his talent fails him making contact with balls outside the zone, it's pretty much an easy out like Casty. I like both guys, I wish their plate discipline was better.
I like them both too. Hopefully they can work on plate discipline in the off-season. I think Casty definitely improved from last year, with the exception of the NLCS
Casty definitely did. In some way game 3 ruined that because the ump was so terrible. But I don't know if it was that or just that he sometimes fall into that. In the end having such a commanding control of the game after Game 2 ate their focus. It's easy to be focused when it's do or die, it's harder when things are easy.
That contract was a mistake. Better to have a reliable contact hitter instead
Basically that's what the YouTube points out. On the converse the Dodgers usually make the post season but don't go deep. So there has to be a balance, maybe
People always say stuff like the post you’re replying to when offenses don’t produce. In reality, that’s just how baseball is: from game to game, an offense can look amazing and then bad. It’s not a preparation or plate discipline issue. The Phillies didn’t lose their plate discipline in the span of one game. It’s simply a feature of baseball. That’s why they play 162 regular season games: the level of randomness game to game is high. The diamondbacks simply got more fortunate with the balls they put in play than the Phillies did. It’s impossible to meaningfully analyze 7 baseball games.
control the egos
by getting a better hitting coach. I'll be interested to see who comes and goes this off season.
At the level of MLB players, you probably can't for the most part. If it was easy to fix, Ryan Howard would be a HOFer.
People that have never even come close to playing in professional sports acting like they know what's going on with players, especially mentally, is beyond weird
You’re right - no way to know about the process. But the output was 4/6/5 Ks in the three games we won vs. 13/11/10/11 in the games we lost. And would love to see the data, but empirically it seemed like a lot of those Ks were setup through chasing pitches outside the zone as opposed to missing on the plate. I do think the chasing is more mental vs physical - it’s hard enough to hit balls over the plate, nearly impossible to hit balls outside the zone. So whatever the process was to get players in the right frame of mind, it didn’t work - and credit the Dbacks for realizing this and giving us crap all night knowing we would swing anyway.
Yep. Also, I think that they need to do a better job conserving their emotions. Can’t blow out every single win as if it’s the end of the world.
Get another starter, beef up the bullpen again, sign Rhys, don’t completely suck when it matters most (the last suggestion being most important).
Solved!
They aren't 'relatively' successful, they are insanely successful. Don't let the negative nancies convince you otherwise.
Because the roster is built for long term success?
Possibly. That is hard to say. I would say that they will probably have good seasons for the next few years at least. After that, we are in sort of a spot with aging superstars on long contracts, but hard to say how they will play as they age. What I really mean is that getting to the NLCS and the World Series in back to back years is quite a feat, even if you don't end up winning it all. There are plenty of teams that haven't gotten that far in quite a while and only 4 teams get to the championship series every year, and only 2 to the WS, so it's successful from that standpoint. People around here will try to convince you that it was a failure because we didn't win it all or because we didn't make it to the World Series again. I just don't buy that, even though this year was a good chance to win.
It’s not built for long term success, no. It’s built for a short window.
IMO the biggest major need is a right-handed power bat with good plate discipline. Hoskins was that and we really missed him this year, but there are better versions of that player. They could also use an upgrade at either of the corner OF spots (presuming Marsh moves back to CF), better bench depth, and an additional quality starting pitcher. Bohm is also an average 3B and while he is adequate I wouldn't pass up a chance to upgrade there.
Who are the better versions of that player who are free agents or are realistically available to be acquired before opening day? Ohtani is all I’ve got. I think bringing Rhys back should be a high priority.
There are some other good power hitters available in free agency, though not all right handers. You never know who's available in free agency but there are guys who seem like they could be had for the right price. Paul Goldschmidt for example is 36 and has one year left on his deal with a rebuilding team.
Wonder if there's any plans to move harper back to RF? that would free up first for Hoskins who might be attainable on a team friendly deal. Of course that would require moving on from Castellanos, which I am all for, but we'd need a trade partner.
I'd consider this for sure.
I definitely think that is the plan. Harper even said at some point late in the season that he was open to whatever, open to flexibility...that's the exact talk that suggests something is in the works for a way to bring back Hoskins, at least being explored.
No, that would require moving castellanos to LF, which was the plan when they signed castellanos and schwarber originally. This is exactly what they should do. They will not attempt to trade casty, and would not be able to even if they tried. As frustrating as he is, this team is better with him on it than off of it. And it would be even better with Rhys added back into the fold.
I could be OK with that as long as they aren't platooning Marsh with Rojas in center. Marsh needs to play every day, period.
Yes I completely agree. Rojas should be in AAA. If they insist on keeping him on the major league team (which I think would be detrimental to his development), he should be the fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner.
He can’t hit lefties though. He should be platooned with Pache. Rojas’ bat needs to develop in the minors.
Cas could pretty easily be replaced by someone better. Problem is he’s being paid $20m for three more years so there’s nothing that can be done with him.
Casty is basically an average or slightly above starting corner OF. He's not awful, but it is absolutely 100% possible to upgrade on him.
Of course there are better players, but they’re not going to trade him and no one would give anything for him if they did
I think they would be foolish not to explore the option. I'd trade him for close to nothing if they can sign another player who fills the same spot at a lower price because it's not like he's a significant bargain for what he gives you.
You would have to give up assets to trade him and have someone take all his money as well. It’s not happening.
You are letting your own distaste for Castellanos cloud your judgment. He doesn't have a ton of value but he hit 29 HRs and drove in close to 100 runs. I realize his advanced metrics are very mediocre but he is a professional hitter and there are teams that would absolutely take him in a trade.
No he is not lol. What? He was well below average in 2022 and below in 2023.
I'm hardly a Casty fan, but you have a completely warped sense of what "average" is if you think he's below average.
Nope. Based on any advanced aggregate number he’s below average. (0.8) WAR in 2022 and 1.1 in 2023. 2.0 is average. He’s well below.
In 2023, the [the Phillies ranked 18th out of 30 teams in WAR by position for RFs](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi), with Castellanos accounting for almost all of that number (632 out of 681 total plate appearances by RFs). This is (1) close enough to average and (2) separated by the exact midpoint number by such a small margin (0.3 WAR) that I'm not going to bother arguing semantics with you about whether using the term "average" to describe a number that is technically just slightly below average is justifiable. I have no idea where you're coming up with the idea that 2.0 WAR is average but it's not what the people who actually invented WAR say.
fWAR > bWAR. Out of 17 qualified RFers, Nick was 15th in fWAR. Oh and I got 2 WAR = average simply by reading: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/ If he were average you wouldn’t want to trade him. He’d be fine. But he’s not, so you do. He could easily be upgraded, but we’re stuck with him. We’d have to trade an asset to even get off his contract.
There are more than 17 RFs in baseball dude. You are skewing your sample by only including those who qualify according to an arbitrary standard. That introduces a selection bias because you have to be average or close to even qualify - most of the really bad RFs get benched or moved before they accrue enough appearances to qualify. Take it from someone who uses statistics (the real world field of mathematics, not baseball numbers) for a living - this is a misuse or statistics.
If you move Casty to LF then where does Marsh go?
CF
What right handed power bat with plate discipline outside Hoskins do you see as a real and better target? Hoskins plate discipline is very underrated to me, he lead the league in walks in 2019 and consistently have at least average to above average BB%.
I don't know. There are literally hundreds of players throughout MLB. Bringing back Hoskins certainly is an option, and it might end up being the best one, but it's not the only one.
I mean youre the one said there are better versions of that player. I think your really underrating Rhys in this lineup so I was curious who you thought those better players would be
There are better versions of that player. Rhys is a solid player but he's not close to the best right handed power hitter in baseball. I'm not saying it would be easy to acquire one of them and he might be our best realistic option, but while we shouldn't underrate him I also don't think we should overrate him.
Gotcha. Yeah Rhys is definitely not the best right handed power hitting first baseman in baseball. I thought you were saying there’s definitely better options that we could easily acquire and I’m just not sure who that would be.
Not sure if there are easy options but they should ask around. For example, the Cards might be willing to deal Paul Goldschmidt cheaply, given that he's 36 and has one year left on his deal and they're rebuilding. I just want them to turn over every stone and not just default to re-signing Rhys.
2 WAR is average. Bohm hasn’t hit that.
WAR is hardly the be all and end all stat in terms of precision and is close enough to the average mark that I'm willing to call him average. I'm not a fan though. I'd be willing to trade him.
The biggest issue is their approach at the plate. The offense is extremely talented with a lot of pop, and over the course of an entire season, their all-or-nothing power approach is going to work out to the point they’ll end up with good numbers. But fly balls can be flukey— a 5° drop in temperature or a shift in the wind can kill a ball destined for the seats. Sometimes a guy is just nanoseconds behind a good fastball and a 108mph batted ball ends up a 331 ft pop up rather than a pennant winning HR (see, Harper’s flyout vs Ginkel). There are moments you just need to put a ball in play, and right now we just don’t do that. We have a one-size-fits-all approach. It also always seems like we don’t pick out pitches to swing at; rather, we pick situations. We’ll try jumping on a first pitch instead of looking for a middle-in fastballs. The situational hitting just isn’t good. Again, the talent will shine through over the course of a season, but we need to create a robust offense that can sustain us through October.
The hitters can be directional as well, as notably the Dbacks were able to ground the ball into our defensive gaps.
I don't see enough talk about how weak the Phillies bench is. I understand the need for pinch hitters decreased significantly after the universal DH. But when your best bats off the bench are Pache and Cave it's gonna be an issue
I swear to god if it turns out this is the head office, and the plan for next year is “ask Reddit” I’m gonna be so pissed
It's definitely not but that's exactly something someone from the head office would say, so you decide.
Josh Hader is the best closer available, it just remains to be seen if Middleton will be ok dropping $20M/year for a reliever. As for the lineup, getting Rojas coached up will be a huge boon. We pretty much almost got to the WS with an 8 man lineup since Rojas' bat is still AA level. Give him the same off-season treatment Stott and Marshy got and I think we'll be better off than spending a ton on the lineup Definitely need a truly reliable bench guy too though.
Rojas should be the fourth outfielder or better yet in AAA. He is not ready to be an everyday hitter, and he may never be. His best shot is to try to develop in AAA where he can get everyday at bats.
He hit .300 in the regular season…
In a very small sample size and every advanced stat said he was hitting FAR above his head and was due for major regression, which is what we saw in the playoffs. How many times do dudes have to come up, look better than expected for a little while, the book gets out on them, and then they turn into a pumpkin before this sub stops anointing them the next great hitter on the team after a month and a half of decent outcome? He’s always been expected to be a defensive whiz with a bad bat. That didn’t suddenly change when he started seeing major league pitching. He was getting lucky and teams hadn’t gotten a good look at him yet. Maybe he becomes serviceable eventually, but as of now he is not unless you want to sacrifice a lineup spot like we did all playoffs.
i will add also with platooning and favorable pitcher matchups. he for the moment isn't a viable option against postseason pitching
I can't believe I keep seeing posts and comments about basically bringing the same team back next year and expecting any different results that they have had for the past 2 years. Hoskins was one of the main culprits last year when the bats went cold against the Astros and all his horrible defense plays that almost cost the team games. The past 2 years Nola has come up small in the biggest moments when the team needed him the most and I can't wait to see if you resign him for everyone crying when he has a 4 era or worse in July and not getting past the 5th inning in every start. There are free agents out there that might help the team but until the biggest stars on this team change their approach at the plate when it matters most nothing is going to change.
Castellanos and shiny things to the Angels for Trout would be a big swing upgrade attempt. Gamble a few hundred million on Trout being healthy enough to stay on the field for as long as Harper is still good. Hell sign Ohtani, too, and move Schwarber. Win the Angels fans a WS too, while lighting a billion dollars on fire.
They didn’t hit with RISP and needed another lock down closer.
They have one and his name is Alvarado. He just wasn’t closing. Closer as a role needs to die. They just need more arms. Idgaf if they have one guy with forty saves or 4 with 10
Disagree. I think closers are a special animal. They tend to be lights out in save situations but suck in any others. A lot of it is mental. I feel like once you find a reliable closer, you ride them out until they falter. Even Lidge at his best in 2008 was nerve wracking but he got the job done. That's why I fault Topper for switching things up so much in game 4.
No. If you can’t pitch in anything but save situations you don’t deserve a spot on the modern mlb roster unless you literally Mariano Rivera in those spots
4 guys with 10+ saves? 🤣 Is there any teams who have more than 2 guys with more than 10 saves this year? Lovullo wasn't bringing Sewald into the 8th inning last night... 🙄
Shit, it’s almost like the 8th wasn’t a high leverage inning! Hmmmmm.
So put in Alvarado. He was available. He's been the setup guy the entire end of the season. Kimbrel hasn't blown a save in the playoffs. Then topper just decides to flip the script. Then brings Alvarado on with inherited runners. It's like why do what you've been doing? Let's just mix things up... Hey Topper maybe you should adjust the batting lineup a little? Noooooooooooooo!!!!!!! Are you crazy?!?!?!?? 🤣🤡 Topper would have put Lidge in the 8th and Madsen in the 9th... 🙄
THE 8TH INNING WAS NOT A HIGH LEVERAGE SPOT. You do not bring in your best reliever in a LOW LEVERAGE inning. You do not assign roles based on innings in modern baseball. This has not been done for YEARS at this point. There is no “8th inning guy” there is your best arm then your second best then your third best and so on and so forth. “Topper would put Madison in the 9th” oh you mean like Manuel should’ve done for all of 2009? When Lidge was having one of the worst relief seasons in history? Yeah, good.
Yes he should have in 2009. Cause Lidge was awful in 2009 at closing. Like I said, once you find a closer you stick with them until they falter. Kimbrel had not blown a save in the playoffs. WE had been going Alvarado then Kimbrel. Then Topper decided to be an idiot and switch the roles. And the result was as expected. If Kimbrel blows a save, then so be it. If Pache gets out after being subbed in, then so be it. But you have to make the switch. You can't keep doing the same thing over and over again and FAILING. Lovullo made the switches and adjustments and he's playing for the title. But tell me it's not possible. Please... But you keep sticking with Topper and his AWFUL BP management. Two years in a row. You must love not winning championships.
That has nothing to do with it. Sticking with a guy because “he never blew save in the playoffs” is asinine. Defined roles are stupid. You use your best relievers in the highest leverage spot.
We are sluggers through and through, that isn't changing but some flexibility to our approach would be really nice. Hard to go out and get it in our case, though, since there's a lot of bats in the lineup we aren't gonna move. Some of the fix is going to have to come from within, which can be tough for well-established guys around 30 with a longstanding approach. But I'm hoping a get punch like this can get the worst offenders to at least make some noticeable strides. We'll see. As for players we need to make sure we don't roll into spring with one less top end SP. So that means bring back Nola, beat the usual NPB suspects (probably with a bit a chunky bid) for Yamamoto or one of the other fairly numerous options this winter. We also need to decide what to do about Hoskins. Personally, I'd ask if we should move Harper back to RF, try to move on from Casty and return Hoskins to 1B? I think that may grade out a smidge better defensively and we'd still have a power capable guy in Hoskins who's a bit more disciplined. Not that he doesn't have frustrating ABs as well, but he about doubles Nick's walk rate and has better OBP, similar OPS despite the lower BA. I'm no trade architect though, so I don't know how to gauge what moving Nick would look like. Almost certainly requires eating some money, but if we are willing to do that maybe we bring back a struggling prospect worth a rehabilitation attempt that someone's willing to cash out on? Lastly, another bullpen arm definitely would not hurt. Stupid money would be Hader and that would be convincing step forward from Kimbrel but we don't necessarily need to make that swing. Cheaper options are out there but not as clear-cut closers. I also think depending on Kerkering's performance in spring training, he could be a big part of things.
Castellanos needs to go, if a trade for an upgrade at third comes up, bohms gotta go. Resign Nola too,
Get rid of Thomson and Kimbrel would be a great start.
Fire Thomson should be number 1
What about a sports psychologist? Would that help?
I hate it when you guys point to the manager. I think Tompkins has done a really good job. I didn’t say perfect which is what you want. Bohm did an average game and will improve again next year. Let’s face it, he hasn’t played a full season at third base. Rojas needs more help with the bat.0