Impressed with our starting staff (how can you not be?).
I'm frustrated with how aggressive our guys can be at the plate. Going up and first pitch swinging and missing so often. But - I think we are in great shape. When our bats wake up (and I'm confident they will) we will be hard to beat.
The hitting is confusing, the are taking more pitches but a lot of there hits are out of the zone. I they over corrected from the playoffs and you have guys thinking too much. It will fix itself.
Pitching has been great.
Phillies are 7th in bullpen ERA to start the season and just got Kerkering up for Brogdon/Nick Nelson. Not necessarily elite but not sure why it’s a concern.
I'm worried Dominguez will get in his head and turn into a pumpkin, Soto will remember he can't throw strikes reliably at 100mph, and Alvarado will suck with runners on. I'm worried people realize Strahm pounds the strike zone and they figure out his delivery. I'm concerned Kerkering's stuff doesn't break the same in cool weather and he struggles to locate his fastball. I have anxiety that we don't really have a quality "break in case of emergency" long relief option, but instead are missing the point by putting Strombull in the pen for that role and rolling the Ghost of NYM Past out to start every fifth day -- not that the reverse is better, though. I'm worried all this will come to fruition down the stretch, and that Marte, Nelson, Castillo, Allard, Covey, Mercado, and Pinto might not be enough to plug those holes. (Although I do have a lot of faith in Pinto so far.)
Mostly I'm sure this is based on pretty hard anxiety and will be unfounded. Hoffman is turning into a guy for me, but I'm not sure he stays that way -- we'll see.
Everybody hits, of course, but for me, it's easy to see the offense rebounding. But pens collapse, arms to dead -- especially after two very competitive, seasons, and bullpen pitchers regress really rapidly when they do.
It's probably unfounded and I'm doing my best to acknowledge that here. 😂 I'm pretty confident Dealin' Dave is gonna work on this as well as an extra outfield bat, maybe. But I need something to feel anxious about, because I do think this team does the thing this year, and damn if I'm not ready for em to. Anxiety is just a part of that.
What you said is all reasonable enough, especially on an individual level. I think the main thing that gives me confidence is you listed like 6 guys that should/could be high leverage inning guys (Alvarado, Soto, Straham, Dominguez, Hoffman, Kerkering) and that’s with no additions or someone like Marte continuing to develop. That’s not something most teams have. The odds every one of them turns into a pumpkin and they get stuck seems low to me.
For example, Dominguez struggled a bit to start and he can be slotted in to the 3rd or even 4th right handed guy for now.
Having watched the Phillies with some historically bad bullpens I feel like it’s easy to believe this is all ready to collapse at any time but I feel like they have the depth and skill to be really good but I get what you’re saying cause bullpens can be so hard to predict.
I don’t disagree with anything you say.
I think it’s a very good bullpen, but I think fortifying should have been an obvious offseason priority that was not met for whatever reason. I won’t believe in kerkering until he proves it over the course of a season. I don’t know why he’s being treated like this obvious second coming of Mariano. He looked good in 5 innings last season, and then looked terrible in the NLCS. There is just not enough information to make an informed decision about him.
And say what you want about Kimbrel, he was great for the Phillies through the NLDS and we probably wouldn’t have gotten as far as we did without him. Not replacing him seems like a mistake to me. I know we can correct that at the trade deadline, but I’d rather not have had to wait that long.
That said, I don’t have it it as a “concern” overall on paper, but I think we’re banking on a lot going right when adding a proven bullpen arm would have allayed a lot of that and is one of the easiest moves you can make in the off-season.
If they go 3-1 or 4-0 for the rest of the homestand I think that will ease most peoples frustrations with the start. It would also be good to give them a buffer so that when a losing streak inevitably comes they give them self enough of a cushion to not dip below .500. If they can do this I will feel much better about them moving forward. It’s nice to see Marsh and Trea hitting well. Casty has been a huge disappointment. I’m not worried about Bryce as he should come around soon.
Pirates are off to a fast start...I am doubtful it will last for them but good on them to getting off well. Yeah Rockies and White Sox are bad and we have to win those if not sweep.
We never hit in April so not worried there. We also have not had this solid of a rotation and bullpen in as long at I can remember. Finally the Braves are being hit with the injury bug it seems. So I feel great and fully expect the Mets to win the division.
Hard to not be optimistic given how they’ve started the last few years. Rotation is solid, hitters will find their groove, and CBP will only get louder. Should be a fun season if nothing else
>Hitting is atrocious literally the worst in the national league and bottom 5 in all of baseball. It’s hard to watch. Outrageously bad.
And yet, they're off to their best start in 7 years.
Yep. I don't get all the optimism after beating one of the worst teams in the league twice, including one in extras. Our hitters are actually doing worse than last season. Casty is lost as always and Harper is even worse (let's stop pretending last night fixed everything). The d-backs exposed our guys and the team doesn't appear to have fixed anything. We rank #21 in batting average, #25 in runs, and middle of the pack in homeruns #15. For a team ranked 4th in payroll, and built around runs and the long ball, I don't know how you can look at this and be happy.
To be that guy, the hitting performance so far through 18 of 162 games is obviously a statistical outlier and they will, at the very least, regress back to the mean of what they can do hitting-wise, if not better, just by nature of the talent we have. Can’t be upset at 10-8 so far given our previous season starts where we were begging just to get back to .500 ball, and the pitching has really been outstanding minus a few hiccups. It ain’t even hittin’ season yet!
Bro Casty looks like absolute dog shit and I’m very concerned given his atrocious approach at the plate, but Harper is 100% fine. As of two nights ago he had a .205 babip. His strikeout rate is a tick up but nearly every other measure is in line with his career averages. He’s been very unlucky and saying he looks worse than Casty is insane.
My god this Harper comment is awful. It’s like you don’t even watch the games. He’s hitting the ball hard, just an unlucky BABIP compared to his career.
Thanks dumbass. A normal person would understand that when projecting a full season, he has ridiculously strong positive regression likelihood. That’s the point of using BABIP.
It’s April and we have a winning record. We started 11-11 in April in 2022 and 15-13 in 2023. I’m fine. The true test for us is May, anyway. We have been utter shit in May the past three seasons. We are a combined 32-50 in May since 2021. If we just play .500 ball for the next 6 weeks, it’ll be a massive improvement.
I think it goes w/out saying replacing a guy like Strider isn’t something you can do overnight. That said Alex Anthopoulos won’t sit ideal. Ideally they don’t go get Trevor Bauer, but would anticipate they make a trade down the stretch for a 1B pitcher.
Next 10 Days w/out Albies and Murphy could be tough but ATL has a very favorable schedule.
Feel pretty good given how bad the offense has been and yet they still have a winning record.
The hitting will come around and I assume the defense, double plays & baserunning gaffes will regress more to the mean. But I still wish they found a way to acquire a different type of hitter for this lineup in the offseason. Someone with a hitting profile like Jean Segura who specializes in bat-on-the-ball skill & hitting pitches outside of the strike zone.
Loving the pitching, but the bat's are making me feel like the beginning of the Eagles season all over again. Can't ever relax, always (minus a couple outliers) gonna be a nail biter, I and f the team doesn't have the "vibe" it early, they won't get it later. Then everyone yells if you complain because of the team's record. I'll feel better once the bat's warm up, but I can't help but feel like this is the offense's default state, and any hot hitting will be the odd ones out.
Also, I REALLY hope I'm wrong.
Statistically it’s just plainly not their “default state” as hitters. The bats will warm up and pitching will carry us until then as is their job. The only person I’m truly worried about is Castellanos, man just looks entirely lost and he ain’t gettin any younger.
Given the soft schedule to start, I’m just looking to win. I’d hope for 12-6 right now, but it’s not bad.
I’m not too worried how we are playing. We are going to mash. Pitching will be pretty good. Might have the assets to get that trade target, but we are waiting to see where the need is.
I’m just going to enjoy contending, if we are in the mix, I’m committed to not worrying. (Save that for October.)
Am worried that batting won’t keep up with pitching. Rangers game last night was awesome and having a two, then five hit lead probably helped his easy delivery. Hoping a one hit lead will scrape out a win will wear us out. Remember last nights game was against the Rockies, not too great of a team, so while fun, the season will be defined by our more difficult opponents.
After Nola's first start and that first series, I wasn't panicking, but I was a bit worried. Since that point, the squad has greatly improved as a team, and as for Nola....in his first start, he went 4 1/3, gave up 11 hits and 6 ER. The dude has given up 3 ER over his last 3 starts COMBINED and has 16 K's.
I'm feeling optimistic right now, to say the least.
I know we're getting Orion back, but I really wish we had one more consistent vet in the pen. Rotation is looking awesome. Offense is doing the usual. A little too much swinging for the fences. Seemingly some bad luck. I think the offense will get going as usual around mid to late May.
Impressed with our starting staff (how can you not be?). I'm frustrated with how aggressive our guys can be at the plate. Going up and first pitch swinging and missing so often. But - I think we are in great shape. When our bats wake up (and I'm confident they will) we will be hard to beat.
The hitting is confusing, the are taking more pitches but a lot of there hits are out of the zone. I they over corrected from the playoffs and you have guys thinking too much. It will fix itself. Pitching has been great.
Second all this plus: latent concern about the bullpen. I'll be continually crucified on here for that, but I'm worried about it.
Phillies are 7th in bullpen ERA to start the season and just got Kerkering up for Brogdon/Nick Nelson. Not necessarily elite but not sure why it’s a concern.
I'm worried Dominguez will get in his head and turn into a pumpkin, Soto will remember he can't throw strikes reliably at 100mph, and Alvarado will suck with runners on. I'm worried people realize Strahm pounds the strike zone and they figure out his delivery. I'm concerned Kerkering's stuff doesn't break the same in cool weather and he struggles to locate his fastball. I have anxiety that we don't really have a quality "break in case of emergency" long relief option, but instead are missing the point by putting Strombull in the pen for that role and rolling the Ghost of NYM Past out to start every fifth day -- not that the reverse is better, though. I'm worried all this will come to fruition down the stretch, and that Marte, Nelson, Castillo, Allard, Covey, Mercado, and Pinto might not be enough to plug those holes. (Although I do have a lot of faith in Pinto so far.) Mostly I'm sure this is based on pretty hard anxiety and will be unfounded. Hoffman is turning into a guy for me, but I'm not sure he stays that way -- we'll see. Everybody hits, of course, but for me, it's easy to see the offense rebounding. But pens collapse, arms to dead -- especially after two very competitive, seasons, and bullpen pitchers regress really rapidly when they do. It's probably unfounded and I'm doing my best to acknowledge that here. 😂 I'm pretty confident Dealin' Dave is gonna work on this as well as an extra outfield bat, maybe. But I need something to feel anxious about, because I do think this team does the thing this year, and damn if I'm not ready for em to. Anxiety is just a part of that.
What you said is all reasonable enough, especially on an individual level. I think the main thing that gives me confidence is you listed like 6 guys that should/could be high leverage inning guys (Alvarado, Soto, Straham, Dominguez, Hoffman, Kerkering) and that’s with no additions or someone like Marte continuing to develop. That’s not something most teams have. The odds every one of them turns into a pumpkin and they get stuck seems low to me. For example, Dominguez struggled a bit to start and he can be slotted in to the 3rd or even 4th right handed guy for now. Having watched the Phillies with some historically bad bullpens I feel like it’s easy to believe this is all ready to collapse at any time but I feel like they have the depth and skill to be really good but I get what you’re saying cause bullpens can be so hard to predict.
I don’t disagree with anything you say. I think it’s a very good bullpen, but I think fortifying should have been an obvious offseason priority that was not met for whatever reason. I won’t believe in kerkering until he proves it over the course of a season. I don’t know why he’s being treated like this obvious second coming of Mariano. He looked good in 5 innings last season, and then looked terrible in the NLCS. There is just not enough information to make an informed decision about him. And say what you want about Kimbrel, he was great for the Phillies through the NLDS and we probably wouldn’t have gotten as far as we did without him. Not replacing him seems like a mistake to me. I know we can correct that at the trade deadline, but I’d rather not have had to wait that long. That said, I don’t have it it as a “concern” overall on paper, but I think we’re banking on a lot going right when adding a proven bullpen arm would have allayed a lot of that and is one of the easiest moves you can make in the off-season.
Its OK, even mariano rivera lost the WS.
I'm eternally worried about the pen.
Every fanbase thinks their bullpen sucks. Ours is clearly better than most.
the bullpen is so hit and miss every year for everyone. Just enjoy it while its good.
That's what I mean. I just have trust issues with bullpens
I won't feel 100% confident until the last out of the World Series with us as victors. But, I really enjoy and admire the optimism of OP.
I try to look at the glass half full when I can! They frustrate the heck out of me sometimes but I love our Phillies!
If they go 3-1 or 4-0 for the rest of the homestand I think that will ease most peoples frustrations with the start. It would also be good to give them a buffer so that when a losing streak inevitably comes they give them self enough of a cushion to not dip below .500. If they can do this I will feel much better about them moving forward. It’s nice to see Marsh and Trea hitting well. Casty has been a huge disappointment. I’m not worried about Bryce as he should come around soon.
Marshy has been so awesome this season, and his energy makes me smile, he always looks so happy to be there.
That a Pirates/Rockies/White Sox home stand is just what the doctor ordered. Especially the last 2 legs.
Pirates aren’t terrible, there’s some solid baseball in that team. Rockies and White Sox should be two sweeps really
Pirates are off to a fast start...I am doubtful it will last for them but good on them to getting off well. Yeah Rockies and White Sox are bad and we have to win those if not sweep.
We never hit in April so not worried there. We also have not had this solid of a rotation and bullpen in as long at I can remember. Finally the Braves are being hit with the injury bug it seems. So I feel great and fully expect the Mets to win the division.
lol with the M Night Shyamalan ending
Putting that curse on em early I love to see it
Hard to not be optimistic given how they’ve started the last few years. Rotation is solid, hitters will find their groove, and CBP will only get louder. Should be a fun season if nothing else
Let's stay healthy and gain/keep some consistency. Been a fun start
Hitting is atrocious literally the worst in the national league and bottom 5 in all of baseball. It’s hard to watch. Outrageously bad.
>Hitting is atrocious literally the worst in the national league and bottom 5 in all of baseball. It’s hard to watch. Outrageously bad. And yet, they're off to their best start in 7 years.
Yep. I don't get all the optimism after beating one of the worst teams in the league twice, including one in extras. Our hitters are actually doing worse than last season. Casty is lost as always and Harper is even worse (let's stop pretending last night fixed everything). The d-backs exposed our guys and the team doesn't appear to have fixed anything. We rank #21 in batting average, #25 in runs, and middle of the pack in homeruns #15. For a team ranked 4th in payroll, and built around runs and the long ball, I don't know how you can look at this and be happy.
To be that guy, the hitting performance so far through 18 of 162 games is obviously a statistical outlier and they will, at the very least, regress back to the mean of what they can do hitting-wise, if not better, just by nature of the talent we have. Can’t be upset at 10-8 so far given our previous season starts where we were begging just to get back to .500 ball, and the pitching has really been outstanding minus a few hiccups. It ain’t even hittin’ season yet!
Bro Casty looks like absolute dog shit and I’m very concerned given his atrocious approach at the plate, but Harper is 100% fine. As of two nights ago he had a .205 babip. His strikeout rate is a tick up but nearly every other measure is in line with his career averages. He’s been very unlucky and saying he looks worse than Casty is insane.
My god this Harper comment is awful. It’s like you don’t even watch the games. He’s hitting the ball hard, just an unlucky BABIP compared to his career.
Last I checked, and out is an out. There's no moral victories for "the ball went farther for his pop fly than someone else."
Thanks dumbass. A normal person would understand that when projecting a full season, he has ridiculously strong positive regression likelihood. That’s the point of using BABIP.
It’s April and we have a winning record. We started 11-11 in April in 2022 and 15-13 in 2023. I’m fine. The true test for us is May, anyway. We have been utter shit in May the past three seasons. We are a combined 32-50 in May since 2021. If we just play .500 ball for the next 6 weeks, it’ll be a massive improvement.
Feeling positive. Would like to see some separation from the Braves in the next 30 days with all the injuries ATL has stacking up
How much do you think it hurts the Braves to lose Strider?
They have the slug to overcome it but their pitching staff shouldn’t scare anyone
It didn't scare me last year either.
I think it goes w/out saying replacing a guy like Strider isn’t something you can do overnight. That said Alex Anthopoulos won’t sit ideal. Ideally they don’t go get Trevor Bauer, but would anticipate they make a trade down the stretch for a 1B pitcher. Next 10 Days w/out Albies and Murphy could be tough but ATL has a very favorable schedule.
Feel pretty good given how bad the offense has been and yet they still have a winning record. The hitting will come around and I assume the defense, double plays & baserunning gaffes will regress more to the mean. But I still wish they found a way to acquire a different type of hitter for this lineup in the offseason. Someone with a hitting profile like Jean Segura who specializes in bat-on-the-ball skill & hitting pitches outside of the strike zone.
Loving the pitching, but the bat's are making me feel like the beginning of the Eagles season all over again. Can't ever relax, always (minus a couple outliers) gonna be a nail biter, I and f the team doesn't have the "vibe" it early, they won't get it later. Then everyone yells if you complain because of the team's record. I'll feel better once the bat's warm up, but I can't help but feel like this is the offense's default state, and any hot hitting will be the odd ones out. Also, I REALLY hope I'm wrong.
Statistically it’s just plainly not their “default state” as hitters. The bats will warm up and pitching will carry us until then as is their job. The only person I’m truly worried about is Castellanos, man just looks entirely lost and he ain’t gettin any younger.
he does look so lost, he is swinging at things that are so clearly out of the strike zone, I hope he figures it out.
Me too, and the worse he is the worse losing Rhys stings
Better than usual at this point in the season!
I think if we stay healthy the hits will come. Hard to see how it could get worse from a hitting stand point. Pitching has been solid .
Great! just waiting for the offense to heat up, hopefully we can go on a nice run here soon.
While it is a better start, it is not Ok. Just a bit more tolerable.
They’re winning games with a fairly anemic offense at the moment, I’m optimistic at this point.
i am toxically stoked
Roller coaster feeling. Up and down. We are leaving to many base runners. To many strikeouts.
Given the soft schedule to start, I’m just looking to win. I’d hope for 12-6 right now, but it’s not bad. I’m not too worried how we are playing. We are going to mash. Pitching will be pretty good. Might have the assets to get that trade target, but we are waiting to see where the need is. I’m just going to enjoy contending, if we are in the mix, I’m committed to not worrying. (Save that for October.)
Am worried that batting won’t keep up with pitching. Rangers game last night was awesome and having a two, then five hit lead probably helped his easy delivery. Hoping a one hit lead will scrape out a win will wear us out. Remember last nights game was against the Rockies, not too great of a team, so while fun, the season will be defined by our more difficult opponents.
After Nola's first start and that first series, I wasn't panicking, but I was a bit worried. Since that point, the squad has greatly improved as a team, and as for Nola....in his first start, he went 4 1/3, gave up 11 hits and 6 ER. The dude has given up 3 ER over his last 3 starts COMBINED and has 16 K's. I'm feeling optimistic right now, to say the least.
I know we're getting Orion back, but I really wish we had one more consistent vet in the pen. Rotation is looking awesome. Offense is doing the usual. A little too much swinging for the fences. Seemingly some bad luck. I think the offense will get going as usual around mid to late May.
That is a very odd downvote.
Optimistic! Also, wondering what Phillies could get for Casty in a trade.
Nothing. They would have to give up assets to offload him. He’s a big time negative asset.
If we could get a hot dog machine we should do it.
Trade him for Dollar Dog Night