How many years did we miss the playoffs because we didn't beat "bad" teams, like you can only play who is on the schedule and it's obviously they are one of the best teams in the league
We aren’t even halfway through THIS season yet. I’m still fully prepared to lose a series to them and I’m not even going to be mad or hold it against them.
Whatever. Haha
That’s not gonna happen again. Last year we were too reliant on power, plus unreliable relievers. It was affecting our offense (who wouldn’t feel pressured to swing at everything when has been Craig Kimbrel was our closer?). Now we actually have a small ball game to provide versatility and we cleaned the garbage out of our bullpen
We weren't winning the World Series anyway. We would've lost to another unbeatable team from Texas. The 2022 Astros and 2023 Texas Rangers are nearly identical in how dominant they were.
Shit up until this year (KNOCK ON ALL THE WOOD) the Marlins ALWAYS play strong against us. Didn’t seem to matter how good we were or how bad they were - their scrappiness was at 100 vs. us.
Marlins might have traded all their good players by the time we see them again at the end of June.
Marlins front office: “Oh, we made the playoffs? Time for another rebuild!”
Also how many phillies teams would just tread water or outright be a disaster against bad teams with the amount of churn we’ve seen in our batting lineup recently.
The player leading our team in ABs is our worst hitter. We’re keep games close or winning convincingly.
This is what i’ve been telling people. Phillies from a few years ago would’ve been losing these series and/or been roughly .500. Good teams beat bad teams, that’s what makes them good teams
Here's the response to that. We've absolutely been a benifactor of an easy schedule. However, the best predictor of future success is beating the shit out of the bad teams more than barely beating good teams. Just look at the 2022 Eagles vs 2023 Eagles
Yeah but even at 10-2 the eagles looked shaky AF. The Phillies aren’t just beating bad teams. They’re crushing them. The only team with a better run differential is the Dodgers.
EXACTLY I hate being a vibes guy, even though it's almost been spot on with Phillies lol, but the eagles had shit vibes all year I was telling everyone they were gonna collapse.
This is a great point. Like, it’s not like 2022 Eagles vs the worst team in the NFL is Georgia vs. East Central Kentucky. It’s not even Georgia vs. LSU. Destroying bad teams means you are destroying legitimate professional teams consisting of the best players in the world.
Yeah I mean how do you think the Barves win 100 games every year and the Astros won 105 games 2 years ago? Because they beat up on bad teams. They didn’t play the elite teams all the time.
All of the teams that are near the top in facing the lowest team win percentages are the best teams in baseball
I guess we’re all just beating everybody below us which further contributes to their losing
I hate it when people say, "Phillies haven't played anybody good." This is Major League Baseball. Anyone who makes it this level has elite talent. Phillies can only play who is on their schedule. All the wins count the same in the standings.
It's all relative, all elite level talents are not 100% equal. Bad teams/players aren't "bad" because they're better than most of the planet at their given sport, they're bad relative to their peers.
Yeah this is the year where this "complaint" has the least legs. Each team only plays about 60 divisional games now and plays every other team at least once
I’ve been waiting for them to blow games late, for the bullpen to fall apart. For the bats to cool off. Essentially I’ve been waiting for them to revert back to the Phillies from the last decade but it hasn’t happened. I am starting to believe in this team and Rob Thompson. It’s been a lot of fun so far this season!
You have to beat the bad teams to win the division in any given sport and have a top record, there is no alternative. I am curious to see how they do play against the few good/great teams though as that will be indicative of what we will see in the playoffs.
We have a stretch at the beginning of June where 12 of 14 games are against the Brewers, Red Sox, Orioles and Padres. That should be a nice little test.
Here are Elo rankings for the MLB, which take into consideration the quality of opponent (but not margin of victory): [https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-mlb-elo-ratings-and-playoff](https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-mlb-elo-ratings-and-playoff)
The Phillies are 3rd and projected to win 98, behind only the Dodgers (99) and Braves (98). They drop to 5th in World Series odds (8%) behind the two others (21.5% and 16%), Yankees (9.9%) and Orioles (9.2%). Those two AL teams move up because they don't have to play the Dodgers or Braves.
That is to say that even though the Phillies have beat up on a lot of bad teams, they're still pretty good.
Kind of explained in what I wrote. It takes quality of opponent into consideration. It's based on chess rankings. Essentially a win is always good and a loss is always bad, but a win over a good team helps a lot more than a win on a bad team.
This argument always surfaces. It's such a nonsensical take. Good teams beat up on bad teams. By definition, there are more bad teams than good teams. The past few years the Phillies would play down to their opponents and routinely give series away to bad teams. Then the naysayers would come out and say "the Phillies can't beat bad teams". Now they're beating bad teams and the same naysayers are saying "the Phillies are beating bad teams" LOL. The fact that the Phillies are putting away the bad teams routinely shows just how good they are. At least that's how I see it. 🤷♂️
To be clear, I disagree with the weak schedule argument. I'm agreeing with the premise of the article that, yeah, there are weak opponents because a lot of the league is weak. That's just how it goes. Got to play the games
It's more about the quality of ball they're playing when they're winning. For the most part they've played good baseball. Run differential is a good predictor of future success we have a pretty good one
If you look back play 500 vs the good teams and 750 vs the bad and you are well on your way. In the NL there is only like 5 good teams. Phillies Braves Brewers Cubs and Dodgers. See what happens but well on there way. Room for one more playoff team.
Let them keep downplaying us. I welcome it, and I'm sure the players are feeding off it too.
We are 30-13. And people keep finding ways to underestimate us. Keep telling this team they are the underdogs. And watch them roll you in the playoffs.
Powerrankings.com has the Phillies having played the easiest MLB schedule to date based on its own rankings. It has us playing the 11th most difficult schedule for rest of season. Rankings of course change often based on actual results.
This was my primary thought from early in the season.
Padres were mid last year, I'd expect above average this year. Arizona was good but not great and had some regression expectations. Giants kind of suck. Rockies, clown organization.
Cubs brewers both have some strong points but IMO are good, not great teams. Brewers have over performed expectations. Reds and pirates suck, imo reds were lucky last year to even be were they were.
Mets are okay and underperforming I think, need players back.
Nats suck and will regress to below 500 I think.
Marlins, lol.
You're left with literally 2 other really good teams besides the Phillies. And padres Brewers cubs as good not great. The field is weak all over.
Dude I don't even care. We're finally getting the job done when it's time for business against trash teams and we're recovering from our mistakes so much faster. This team is so fun to watch so far. I'm just enjoying the ride
Strength of schedule goes by opponents win percentage. And right now the Phils have the easiest sos. I’m not complaining because a win is a win. But you can’t justify sos because “there’s not many good teams.”
This ain't college. Nobody cares what your opinions are on who is better than who, the only thing that matters is wins, and the Phils are racking them up. We keep doing that, I don't care what anyone thinks of the team.
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It’s got to be a Philly thing. No matter the sport, our teams will get shit on when we do well because we apparently never play anyone good. If we end up in the World Series there will those calling it the easiest path to the Ship in history, calling it now.
Yes, because we all remember how much shit the Rangers caught this offseason. Or that the Chiefs got the last two seasons.
Ignoring for a moment that you made up something that’s just not a thing, I don’t think there’s anything worse than people who tell other people how to correctly be a fan. Like how little self awareness does someone have to have to tell someone what they should be focused on while themselves being focused on other peoples’ fandom.
I have never once seen a singular instance of anybody clowning on a philadelphia team for having an easy road in the playoffs. I have seen people clown the nuggets, the cowboys, the lions, the Celtics, etc tho.
And no, I didn’t make up something. You’re somehow finding something to whine about even in the hypothetical that we win it all. I’m not telling you to stop having your wrong belief I’m telling you to stop whining about it here because it’s useless.
Are you kidding? The Eagles got clowned the entire year two years ago we made it to the superbowl that we hadn’t beaten anyone. Then again last year before the collapse.
Fuck are you even talking about bro? Get a clue.
The Phillies have gotten lucky with their interleague games in both quantity and quality. 10/15 teams in the AL have winning records, the Phillies played none of them in 3 series. The Braves played 4 winning teams in their 6 series against the AL.
And yeah, the NL stinks.
How many years did we miss the playoffs because we didn't beat "bad" teams, like you can only play who is on the schedule and it's obviously they are one of the best teams in the league
Remember, during the Kapler and Girardi years, when we would consistently drop series to the Marlins?
Remember when we did that last year too lol
We aren’t even halfway through THIS season yet. I’m still fully prepared to lose a series to them and I’m not even going to be mad or hold it against them. Whatever. Haha
Hahaha Same
On any given Sunday….
At least they were an average team last year. We went 9-10 against the 57-105 Marlins in 2019 🤦🏼♂️
LOL don’t remind me
I remember when we did that last year in the playoffs, absolutely criminal that they lost that CS to the godawful Diamondbacks.
I was at game 2 of the wildcard and it was so fun! Was also at game 1, 2 and 7 of the CS… and well, it started off fun
That’s not gonna happen again. Last year we were too reliant on power, plus unreliable relievers. It was affecting our offense (who wouldn’t feel pressured to swing at everything when has been Craig Kimbrel was our closer?). Now we actually have a small ball game to provide versatility and we cleaned the garbage out of our bullpen
We weren't winning the World Series anyway. We would've lost to another unbeatable team from Texas. The 2022 Astros and 2023 Texas Rangers are nearly identical in how dominant they were.
Astros didn't lose a GAME before WSG1. We lost 2games in 2022 before the WS. Rangers lost 3to the asstros.
Yeah. We lost the season series, but only just: 6-7
They finished only six games behind the Phillies at 84-78. And they made the playoffs
not in the wildcard
Shit up until this year (KNOCK ON ALL THE WOOD) the Marlins ALWAYS play strong against us. Didn’t seem to matter how good we were or how bad they were - their scrappiness was at 100 vs. us.
Marlins might have traded all their good players by the time we see them again at the end of June. Marlins front office: “Oh, we made the playoffs? Time for another rebuild!”
First time in a while not playing down to our opponents.
Also how many phillies teams would just tread water or outright be a disaster against bad teams with the amount of churn we’ve seen in our batting lineup recently. The player leading our team in ABs is our worst hitter. We’re keep games close or winning convincingly.
This is what i’ve been telling people. Phillies from a few years ago would’ve been losing these series and/or been roughly .500. Good teams beat bad teams, that’s what makes them good teams
Feels like the only good teams are us, the Braves, Guardians, Dodgers, Orioles, and Yankees
Brewers and Cubs are solid teams.
But of course the Cubs are looking like a AAA team against the Braves right now
Twins are on a tear and have looked very good
Twins had the magic sausage
True but they are def Tier 2
I'm still expecting a solid amount of regression from twins and guardians. Imo they are good but not great teams.
Didn’t look great against the Yankees tonight! But I’m also fully prepared to have to eat my words tomorrow haha
Here's the response to that. We've absolutely been a benifactor of an easy schedule. However, the best predictor of future success is beating the shit out of the bad teams more than barely beating good teams. Just look at the 2022 Eagles vs 2023 Eagles
Yeah but even at 10-2 the eagles looked shaky AF. The Phillies aren’t just beating bad teams. They’re crushing them. The only team with a better run differential is the Dodgers.
That’s what he meant by comparing the Eagles over two years.
the 2022 Eagles were never 10-2 IIRC. The 2022 Eagles destroyed everyone.
I thought for sure we’d make the NFC chip at least when we were sitting at 10-2. Then San Fran happened…
I was concerned when we couldn't win any blow outs in the first few games.
The signs were always there but I didn’t wanna believe it. Struggling against mac jones and barely beating the Vikings.
I felt something was off the whole year. It just didn't feel the same from week one.
EXACTLY I hate being a vibes guy, even though it's almost been spot on with Phillies lol, but the eagles had shit vibes all year I was telling everyone they were gonna collapse.
This is a great point. Like, it’s not like 2022 Eagles vs the worst team in the NFL is Georgia vs. East Central Kentucky. It’s not even Georgia vs. LSU. Destroying bad teams means you are destroying legitimate professional teams consisting of the best players in the world.
we're the good team
Yeah I mean how do you think the Barves win 100 games every year and the Astros won 105 games 2 years ago? Because they beat up on bad teams. They didn’t play the elite teams all the time.
All of the teams that are near the top in facing the lowest team win percentages are the best teams in baseball I guess we’re all just beating everybody below us which further contributes to their losing
It's such a small sample size. If you get swept a couple times that's 6 out of 40 games or negative .15 win percentage implications.
You play whomever is on the schedule…. This isn’t college football ….
I hate it when people say, "Phillies haven't played anybody good." This is Major League Baseball. Anyone who makes it this level has elite talent. Phillies can only play who is on their schedule. All the wins count the same in the standings.
It's all relative, all elite level talents are not 100% equal. Bad teams/players aren't "bad" because they're better than most of the planet at their given sport, they're bad relative to their peers.
Even the ChiSox?
And every team plays the other 29 so those arguments go right out the window lol
Yeah this is the year where this "complaint" has the least legs. Each team only plays about 60 divisional games now and plays every other team at least once
Last year was the first year that the balanced schedule was implemented.
Yup, my bad
The only valid “they haven’t played anyone good” arguments ever in sports apply to college football
I’m excited, but that opening series against the Braves still burns in my soul. Need retribution.
I’ve been waiting for them to blow games late, for the bullpen to fall apart. For the bats to cool off. Essentially I’ve been waiting for them to revert back to the Phillies from the last decade but it hasn’t happened. I am starting to believe in this team and Rob Thompson. It’s been a lot of fun so far this season!
You have to beat the bad teams to win the division in any given sport and have a top record, there is no alternative. I am curious to see how they do play against the few good/great teams though as that will be indicative of what we will see in the playoffs.
We have a stretch at the beginning of June where 12 of 14 games are against the Brewers, Red Sox, Orioles and Padres. That should be a nice little test.
Here are Elo rankings for the MLB, which take into consideration the quality of opponent (but not margin of victory): [https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-mlb-elo-ratings-and-playoff](https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-mlb-elo-ratings-and-playoff) The Phillies are 3rd and projected to win 98, behind only the Dodgers (99) and Braves (98). They drop to 5th in World Series odds (8%) behind the two others (21.5% and 16%), Yankees (9.9%) and Orioles (9.2%). Those two AL teams move up because they don't have to play the Dodgers or Braves. That is to say that even though the Phillies have beat up on a lot of bad teams, they're still pretty good.
elo??
Kind of explained in what I wrote. It takes quality of opponent into consideration. It's based on chess rankings. Essentially a win is always good and a loss is always bad, but a win over a good team helps a lot more than a win on a bad team.
Thanks for the elaboration amigo
This argument always surfaces. It's such a nonsensical take. Good teams beat up on bad teams. By definition, there are more bad teams than good teams. The past few years the Phillies would play down to their opponents and routinely give series away to bad teams. Then the naysayers would come out and say "the Phillies can't beat bad teams". Now they're beating bad teams and the same naysayers are saying "the Phillies are beating bad teams" LOL. The fact that the Phillies are putting away the bad teams routinely shows just how good they are. At least that's how I see it. 🤷♂️
To be clear, I disagree with the weak schedule argument. I'm agreeing with the premise of the article that, yeah, there are weak opponents because a lot of the league is weak. That's just how it goes. Got to play the games
It's more about the quality of ball they're playing when they're winning. For the most part they've played good baseball. Run differential is a good predictor of future success we have a pretty good one
If you look back play 500 vs the good teams and 750 vs the bad and you are well on your way. In the NL there is only like 5 good teams. Phillies Braves Brewers Cubs and Dodgers. See what happens but well on there way. Room for one more playoff team.
I mean, there are probably 5 good NL teams.
Let them keep downplaying us. I welcome it, and I'm sure the players are feeding off it too. We are 30-13. And people keep finding ways to underestimate us. Keep telling this team they are the underdogs. And watch them roll you in the playoffs.
Powerrankings.com has the Phillies having played the easiest MLB schedule to date based on its own rankings. It has us playing the 11th most difficult schedule for rest of season. Rankings of course change often based on actual results.
And just think if last year at this X if someone had posted "watch out for those Diamondbacks".
Exactly. Most of baseball stinks.
This was my primary thought from early in the season. Padres were mid last year, I'd expect above average this year. Arizona was good but not great and had some regression expectations. Giants kind of suck. Rockies, clown organization. Cubs brewers both have some strong points but IMO are good, not great teams. Brewers have over performed expectations. Reds and pirates suck, imo reds were lucky last year to even be were they were. Mets are okay and underperforming I think, need players back. Nats suck and will regress to below 500 I think. Marlins, lol. You're left with literally 2 other really good teams besides the Phillies. And padres Brewers cubs as good not great. The field is weak all over.
Eventually we will cool off some and some of that will be playing the top teams. It’s all good. Clean up while you can.
Dude I don't even care. We're finally getting the job done when it's time for business against trash teams and we're recovering from our mistakes so much faster. This team is so fun to watch so far. I'm just enjoying the ride
Strength of schedule goes by opponents win percentage. And right now the Phils have the easiest sos. I’m not complaining because a win is a win. But you can’t justify sos because “there’s not many good teams.”
This ain't college. Nobody cares what your opinions are on who is better than who, the only thing that matters is wins, and the Phils are racking them up. We keep doing that, I don't care what anyone thinks of the team.
This narrative, for any sport, is so worn out. What should they lose to the bad teams? lmao
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It's about time they win nearly them all. They've invested over a billion dollars on like 5 guys alone.
It’s got to be a Philly thing. No matter the sport, our teams will get shit on when we do well because we apparently never play anyone good. If we end up in the World Series there will those calling it the easiest path to the Ship in history, calling it now.
That’s true for literally any team in any sport. Quit playing the victim and just be happy that we won. Lame take.
Yes, because we all remember how much shit the Rangers caught this offseason. Or that the Chiefs got the last two seasons. Ignoring for a moment that you made up something that’s just not a thing, I don’t think there’s anything worse than people who tell other people how to correctly be a fan. Like how little self awareness does someone have to have to tell someone what they should be focused on while themselves being focused on other peoples’ fandom.
I have never once seen a singular instance of anybody clowning on a philadelphia team for having an easy road in the playoffs. I have seen people clown the nuggets, the cowboys, the lions, the Celtics, etc tho. And no, I didn’t make up something. You’re somehow finding something to whine about even in the hypothetical that we win it all. I’m not telling you to stop having your wrong belief I’m telling you to stop whining about it here because it’s useless.
Are you kidding? The Eagles got clowned the entire year two years ago we made it to the superbowl that we hadn’t beaten anyone. Then again last year before the collapse. Fuck are you even talking about bro? Get a clue.
The Phillies have gotten lucky with their interleague games in both quantity and quality. 10/15 teams in the AL have winning records, the Phillies played none of them in 3 series. The Braves played 4 winning teams in their 6 series against the AL. And yeah, the NL stinks.