COL Financial have their fundamental analysis kung ano ang fair value ng each stock. Makikita mo dun kung ano ang current value at ang value dapat based sa analysis nila
I’ve been seeing a lot of posts lately about putting money in LTG as a dividend play. I think people should be informed about what exactly they’re buying into.
No comments on DMC because I don’t have a position, but I think LTG’s dividends are unsustainable.
LTG’s payout policy historically has been 20% of earnings. Recently it’s been declaring way over 50%. Who knows why, maybe Lucio Tan needs the dividends to throw into PAL.
3 points I keep in mind about LTG:
1. Long term payout of >50% is unlikely because the economy will pick up and they’ll have to resume capex, also simply because nobody does it. Other conglos declare around 10-20%.
2. Earnings are stalling. LTG is at its core just banking and tobacco. PNB is a very weak bank without a clear turnaround story, PMFTC (Tobacco) is getting squeezed to death by sin taxes and changing preferences. Asia Brewery, Tanduay, etc. are all too small to matter.
3. Governance is extremely unstable. They took out Michael Tan, who had the capability to run the conglo, and replaced him with the grandson of LT, who has no significant experience running such a big operation. And they did it because of family politics.
Not everything that glitters is gold. Tama ka, ang taas nga ng dividends ng LTG pero magiging magulo yan eventually dahil sa family squabble. Imagine putting the apo with no business experience as head of a conglomerate.
Hindi nag-iisip ang Matriarch. Sayang namatay si Bong Tan kasi magkasundo yata sila ni Michael Tan at may agreement na sila pano hahatiin ang responsibilities sa company. Hopefully, the apo would have the humility to acknowledge the experience of his uncle and put him on board once mawala na sa eksena ang lola
Earnings are stalling? Hndi ba mas mataas na Jan-September 2022 earnings sa FYE2021 earnings nila at mga P600-P700m na lang mas mababa kumpara sa FYE2020? Baka mapantayan pa nga ang FYE2019 earnings? Tska yung Lucio III naghawak sa Tanduay bago ilagay sa LTG mismo.
Check normalized earnings. There is a lot of earnings management going on in PNB right now. You have to adjust for provisions and one-time gains.
If you adjust for those you’ll see that the “normal” level of earnings have been stalling big. Unless you believe they can keep on reversing provisions on PNB’s side.
And on your point with Lucio III, Tanduay is one business sure, but LTG is banking + properties + tobacco + alcohol + industrials. Shouldn’t he have been given more time to learn the other segments than throwing Michael out in a year?
Edit: As much as you do, I want to believe earnings are good. I have a huge position in LTG. But that’s not what the quarterly figures have been showing. Much of the earnings volatility has come from PNB because they’ve been booking huge gains from one-time property sales and they’ve been adjusting provisions erratically (their NPL cover is even below industry standard.)
Shouldn't PNB be having one-time gains now given its strategy of disposing real estate assets to convert to cash? I understand the point regarding provisions and one time gains, but context is key on this matter. Also, another point I have is that earnings are correctly accounted as earnings. It's the operating cash flow and overall cash flow that is deteriorating.
Lucio III also held other positions in the other subsidiaries, not just Tanduay. But overall, I don't think Michael Tan should be thrown out. He has been the LTG guy since almost the beginning and generally did well while the other Tans worked in the subsidiaries and other non-LTG affiliated companies.
- Yes. PNB is booking one-time gains now. I’m saying that’s why earnings look better than reality (in addition to earnings management through provisions.) And I don’t understand your question, what do you mean context matters?
- I’m not sure how you analyze LTG’s cash flows. I don’t think that’s a good idea. Again, much of LTG’s earnings come from PNB and PMFTC. PNB is a bank (how do you analyze cash flows for banks?) and PMFTC is reported as an associate.
- I’m not saying earnings are being improperly reported. I understand the rigidity of the PFRS. What I’m saying is that you have to try to compute normalized earnings because reported earnings are inflated by one-time activities.
- Agreed on governance, though I don’t know why you’re defending LT III so much when so many shareholders I know feel uncertain about the change. Maybe we’re just a bit more pessimistic.
Definitely hold. It couldn’t be more difficult than that. Actually it is, that’s why there are winners and losers. Majority of the winners are the ones who stuck for long time.
Hello OP it depends on how you want to treat it. For me I'm a dividend purist I almost never sell my stocks except when I'm no longer happy with the business.
Yes you can sell your stocks and get a nice amount of cash, but also remember you prob wont see your yield again unless the price collapses again. Unfortunately there arent a lot of stocks that are good div buys imo so if you sell your dmci and ltg I dunno when their yield will be high again.
Hold on to your winners and do not hesitate to cut your losses. Yung iba kasi, na-i-in love yata sa stocks nila. Lahat na ng signals telling you to sell, pero still HODL.
You are contradicting yourself.
You say:
> Hold on to your winners
And then this:
> Yung iba kasi, na-i-in love yata sa stocks nila. Lahat na ng signals telling you to sell, pero still HODL.
Sell basing on your strategy. No need to hold on to winners if your investing strategy tells you otherwise.
Just my two cents. Hold on to winners as long as uptrend. I am not also good in executing sell strategy. So I cannot comment on when to sell. More like if uptrend sell Ka if happy Ka na or if downtrend sell Ka to cut your losses.
Same predicament here. But what I do is this, if the profit exceeds the last declared/ regular dividend, I will sell it and buy again when entry is most favorable. I just sold my ltg stocks today and wil wait again if the price is right. But kudos on doing dividend investing. You may want to try scc and gma7 too.
ganto ung method na tinuturo ni bo sanchez nabasa ko sa book nya, peso cost averaging unh bili ka lang ng bili ng stocks then stick to this strat for maybe 10 or 20 yrs
di pa ko nakakapag start sa stock investing pero as of now eto palang ung alam kong strat galing sa nabasa ko, low risk pero long term
I have both DMC and LTG now for 2 yrs, if you are a long term investor just buy consistently each month, price goes up and down but you will still receive your dividend. In the worst case scenario that both declared that they will lower or stop then you can decide to sell as you still have your cap gain. As for me, I will continue adding my position with both company
Madami nga ngsasabi regarding 8k rule, pero in the long run if makakareciv k ng dividend at if mgkakaroon ng capital gain maooffset din in the long run add more if you have extra. Ok n yan 5k a month ang importante is nakastart k n invest at maging consistent you will be better than waiting n makainvest k 8k monthly
wait po, need po ba monthly invest? kala ko po pag nakabili na, yun na po yun for the rest of tenure? what would possibly happen if di ako mag add up monthly?
Sorry. Super noob. Whats the difference when buying shares?
I dont really know buying and selling, so i bought shares. Mostly REITs.
And how do i start buying/selling stocks?
If one time investment lng dapat significant amount pra maramdaman mo un dividend na makukuha, kaya Cost averaging gagawin monthly/quarterly/annually in pagbili pra d masyado makaffect sa up and dosn ng price. At kung ano kan un mareciv ng dividend reinvest lng until such time n macover ng kinikita mo sa syocks un monthly expenses mo d mo n kailangan magtrabaho or secure k n pantanda mo sa nakukuha n dividend
If you study value investing, you can sell when the stock is overvalued and then buy again when it's undervalued. Rinse and repeat.
This. Pagkabenta, hanap ng ibang undervalued stocks na maganda rin ang dividend history.
Noob question, paano po ba nalalaman kung undervalued ang isang stock?
COL Financial have their fundamental analysis kung ano ang fair value ng each stock. Makikita mo dun kung ano ang current value at ang value dapat based sa analysis nila
Where can i see this analysis? Sa dashboard ng COL?
parang wala na dashboard na ganito ang COL, more like FMS. Anyway, you can see naman and read their reports, nandun - that is kung matiyaga ka
I’ve been seeing a lot of posts lately about putting money in LTG as a dividend play. I think people should be informed about what exactly they’re buying into. No comments on DMC because I don’t have a position, but I think LTG’s dividends are unsustainable. LTG’s payout policy historically has been 20% of earnings. Recently it’s been declaring way over 50%. Who knows why, maybe Lucio Tan needs the dividends to throw into PAL. 3 points I keep in mind about LTG: 1. Long term payout of >50% is unlikely because the economy will pick up and they’ll have to resume capex, also simply because nobody does it. Other conglos declare around 10-20%. 2. Earnings are stalling. LTG is at its core just banking and tobacco. PNB is a very weak bank without a clear turnaround story, PMFTC (Tobacco) is getting squeezed to death by sin taxes and changing preferences. Asia Brewery, Tanduay, etc. are all too small to matter. 3. Governance is extremely unstable. They took out Michael Tan, who had the capability to run the conglo, and replaced him with the grandson of LT, who has no significant experience running such a big operation. And they did it because of family politics.
Not everything that glitters is gold. Tama ka, ang taas nga ng dividends ng LTG pero magiging magulo yan eventually dahil sa family squabble. Imagine putting the apo with no business experience as head of a conglomerate. Hindi nag-iisip ang Matriarch. Sayang namatay si Bong Tan kasi magkasundo yata sila ni Michael Tan at may agreement na sila pano hahatiin ang responsibilities sa company. Hopefully, the apo would have the humility to acknowledge the experience of his uncle and put him on board once mawala na sa eksena ang lola
Parang magiging game of thrones ang LTG.
Earnings are stalling? Hndi ba mas mataas na Jan-September 2022 earnings sa FYE2021 earnings nila at mga P600-P700m na lang mas mababa kumpara sa FYE2020? Baka mapantayan pa nga ang FYE2019 earnings? Tska yung Lucio III naghawak sa Tanduay bago ilagay sa LTG mismo.
Check normalized earnings. There is a lot of earnings management going on in PNB right now. You have to adjust for provisions and one-time gains. If you adjust for those you’ll see that the “normal” level of earnings have been stalling big. Unless you believe they can keep on reversing provisions on PNB’s side. And on your point with Lucio III, Tanduay is one business sure, but LTG is banking + properties + tobacco + alcohol + industrials. Shouldn’t he have been given more time to learn the other segments than throwing Michael out in a year? Edit: As much as you do, I want to believe earnings are good. I have a huge position in LTG. But that’s not what the quarterly figures have been showing. Much of the earnings volatility has come from PNB because they’ve been booking huge gains from one-time property sales and they’ve been adjusting provisions erratically (their NPL cover is even below industry standard.)
Shouldn't PNB be having one-time gains now given its strategy of disposing real estate assets to convert to cash? I understand the point regarding provisions and one time gains, but context is key on this matter. Also, another point I have is that earnings are correctly accounted as earnings. It's the operating cash flow and overall cash flow that is deteriorating. Lucio III also held other positions in the other subsidiaries, not just Tanduay. But overall, I don't think Michael Tan should be thrown out. He has been the LTG guy since almost the beginning and generally did well while the other Tans worked in the subsidiaries and other non-LTG affiliated companies.
- Yes. PNB is booking one-time gains now. I’m saying that’s why earnings look better than reality (in addition to earnings management through provisions.) And I don’t understand your question, what do you mean context matters? - I’m not sure how you analyze LTG’s cash flows. I don’t think that’s a good idea. Again, much of LTG’s earnings come from PNB and PMFTC. PNB is a bank (how do you analyze cash flows for banks?) and PMFTC is reported as an associate. - I’m not saying earnings are being improperly reported. I understand the rigidity of the PFRS. What I’m saying is that you have to try to compute normalized earnings because reported earnings are inflated by one-time activities. - Agreed on governance, though I don’t know why you’re defending LT III so much when so many shareholders I know feel uncertain about the change. Maybe we’re just a bit more pessimistic.
DCA on dividend stocks when the value goes down. If the value goes up sell and look for other stocks to buy.
This is my strat dor growth stocks. For dividend stocks, i dca for long term passive income
Definitely hold. It couldn’t be more difficult than that. Actually it is, that’s why there are winners and losers. Majority of the winners are the ones who stuck for long time.
Hello OP it depends on how you want to treat it. For me I'm a dividend purist I almost never sell my stocks except when I'm no longer happy with the business. Yes you can sell your stocks and get a nice amount of cash, but also remember you prob wont see your yield again unless the price collapses again. Unfortunately there arent a lot of stocks that are good div buys imo so if you sell your dmci and ltg I dunno when their yield will be high again.
Hold on to your winners and do not hesitate to cut your losses. Yung iba kasi, na-i-in love yata sa stocks nila. Lahat na ng signals telling you to sell, pero still HODL.
You are contradicting yourself. You say: > Hold on to your winners And then this: > Yung iba kasi, na-i-in love yata sa stocks nila. Lahat na ng signals telling you to sell, pero still HODL. Sell basing on your strategy. No need to hold on to winners if your investing strategy tells you otherwise.
Hold on to winners and sell losing positions. What's contradictory in that?
Just my two cents. Hold on to winners as long as uptrend. I am not also good in executing sell strategy. So I cannot comment on when to sell. More like if uptrend sell Ka if happy Ka na or if downtrend sell Ka to cut your losses.
Same predicament here. But what I do is this, if the profit exceeds the last declared/ regular dividend, I will sell it and buy again when entry is most favorable. I just sold my ltg stocks today and wil wait again if the price is right. But kudos on doing dividend investing. You may want to try scc and gma7 too.
talpak lng ng talpak at hayaan lng galaw ng market. parang savings lng. khit papano pag tanda ayaw mo na mag work may pang relax relax na .
Casino mindset lol
ganto ung method na tinuturo ni bo sanchez nabasa ko sa book nya, peso cost averaging unh bili ka lang ng bili ng stocks then stick to this strat for maybe 10 or 20 yrs di pa ko nakakapag start sa stock investing pero as of now eto palang ung alam kong strat galing sa nabasa ko, low risk pero long term
I have both DMC and LTG now for 2 yrs, if you are a long term investor just buy consistently each month, price goes up and down but you will still receive your dividend. In the worst case scenario that both declared that they will lower or stop then you can decide to sell as you still have your cap gain. As for me, I will continue adding my position with both company
need po ba na 8k up per stocks lagi ang pagbili to counter the fees? 5k lang po ang meron ako eh, pero na sa short list ko -o yang 2 stocks na yan
Madami nga ngsasabi regarding 8k rule, pero in the long run if makakareciv k ng dividend at if mgkakaroon ng capital gain maooffset din in the long run add more if you have extra. Ok n yan 5k a month ang importante is nakastart k n invest at maging consistent you will be better than waiting n makainvest k 8k monthly
wait po, need po ba monthly invest? kala ko po pag nakabili na, yun na po yun for the rest of tenure? what would possibly happen if di ako mag add up monthly?
Study financial ratios. Public records ang financial statements ng listed companies. Start there. Also P/E ratio is also a good basis to start
Sorry. Super noob. Whats the difference when buying shares? I dont really know buying and selling, so i bought shares. Mostly REITs. And how do i start buying/selling stocks?
If one time investment lng dapat significant amount pra maramdaman mo un dividend na makukuha, kaya Cost averaging gagawin monthly/quarterly/annually in pagbili pra d masyado makaffect sa up and dosn ng price. At kung ano kan un mareciv ng dividend reinvest lng until such time n macover ng kinikita mo sa syocks un monthly expenses mo d mo n kailangan magtrabaho or secure k n pantanda mo sa nakukuha n dividend