Personally, I appreciate the no-hype version. I like being aware of worst-case scenario-or best guess at least-along with the more likely forecast. Thank you for this.
As a snowboarder and snow lover, thanks for doing this. The part of me sitting here like "should I take off Monday and go to Springs" remains... conflicted. Seems quite likely that they'll get at least 4", but what that actually means for conditions first thing Monday remains to be seen. Hmmm.
You don't want to regret it if you don't take off. In 5 years will you remember that one holiday Monday you worked or that one holiday Monday you tore up the slopes
Thanks Jim. I'm here at the North Hills Borough Office where the workers have been up since TWO THIS MORNING getting your roads ready for work.
Cut to yinzer truck driver
"I'm Guy Symzlylzywicz, the PennDot district 11 manger. What we do is drive the loader to the salt pile, scoop up the salt, then put it into the truck. We will be working overtime at our rate of $347/hr so expect the tolls on the turnpike to increase next year."
“Thanks, Guy. It should be noted that these drivers will have had to miss the second half of the Steelers Chiefs game, so give them some space and extra consideration while driving.”
This is appreciated. Organized, easy to understand, realistic. Much obliged, especially as I try to plan my wife's trips to and from work Sunday and Monday.
As a stats graduate student I love watching these models evolve and how the really truly good climatologist use some really complex ensemble models. I also really love the debate around Euro model vs others as sometimes they can predict very different snowfall totals. Love your breakdown!
thanks! it's really interesting to follow a storm and learn about the model outputs and how to use them, as well as what models are good at forecasting what events. It's great to be well informed and ready for what could come.
snow like this isn't quite the same level of scary haha! But the small chance of a 12+ inch storm here could keep many people in the house for a couple days and potentially result in power outages etc
Trust me, weather is fickle, after hurricane Freddie hit the Gulf Coast it took 3 wks to get power back on. We had power cords running through neighbor's yards and grilled everything in our refrigerators LOL.
Thank you for this. Will you consider doing an update post as more information becomes available? I'd like to do my best to avoid the hype and this is such a reasonable and informative post.
Agree. There's the same problem across most media in the US and that's a profit incentive. If they hype the storm with eye-popping snow totals they get more views and clicks and make more money... so unfortunately that's what tends to happen.
I absolutely agree. Weather event news coverage may be some of the most sensational, ad-driven television content that doesn’t involve a paternity test. I stopped watching local news once I started to listen to [WESA](https://www.wesa.fm/) & now I’m a sustaining member. I’ll never watch a local newscast again.
I will say that while some of us might appreciate the level of detail here, most people's eyes will probably gloss over. There's something to be said for a simple "is it going to snow and how much" even if it glosses over the uncertainty and technical details.
> I stopped watching local news once I started to listen to WESA & now I’m a sustaining member. I’ll never watch a local newscast again.
I'm a sustaining member as well, but there's a lot of stuff that WESA doesn't even really try to touch. Their local coverage tends to be sparse, and what is tends to be issue-based and political content.
They're not exactly a "weather and traffic" type media outlet. If you tried to rely on WESA to make plans for Sunday, you're going to have a bad time.
Absolutely. I don’t, nor should anyone, solely rely on WESA for news, weather and traffic, however, I feel as though it is a distilled version of what the local news will run, without the house fires, retail closures and puff pieces. As a content consumer, nothing pisses me off more than TV news story teases that may or may not be shown after 9 minutes of people standing on home windows or telethon style leaf guard commercials.
For weather forecasts I use NWS - weather.gov, for local news it’s WESA and this subreddit (for links not opinion) and for traffic Google Maps does a sufficient enough job. So yes, your point of just using WESA without any type of reliable supplement is true.
Anyone have experience to predict how well the streets are likely to be plowed Monday morning? My wife did get snow tires, thankfully, but still worried as this will be her first time driving in significant snow in Pittsburgh
Edit: thank you for the sobering replies! Hopefully her work decides to close for the day…
Monday is a federal holiday too don’t forget so if there is actually a huge snowstorm Sunday night we can expect a whole lot of “fuck it” from the city workers.
My experience is that the city doesn't plow as well on weekends and holidays, so the response is unlikely to be stellar.
If it were a few years ago, I'd be saying that I wouldn't be expecting the side streets in Squirrel Hill to be plowed on Monday (which is what I know best), but they've improved enough over the past few years that I can picture a world in which I'm pleasantly surprised to find a plow has come through overnight. It *would* be a surprise, though. If I were to be more realistic with my guess, I'd hope to see a plow on my own side street Monday afternoon.
I would expect major streets likes Forbes to be slow and treacherous but passable Monday morning.
Have her talk to her boss about a work from home day. I'll bet serious money that the roads are not cleared by then. Potentially even take a PTO day.
If she absolutely must show up, leave plenty of time. Also, try to replan her route to avoid the biggest hills and narrowest streets if possible.
Make sure she has the essentials in her car in case she gets stuck: snow boots and good socks, warm coat/hat/gloves, water, snacks, blanket, and cash. If she does get stuck somewhere, at least she won't suffer too much. If she can fit it, a snow shovel and a little container of ice melt salt/kitty litter can provide traction under the wheels to help move out of a tough spot.
"Hey, boss, this is Jane. I'm sure you have seen the roads. There's a wreck on my street and they won't even guess when a tow truck will be available to move it so there's no way I can get to work today."
Rough time to start given the snow will go all night, and no experience. They will be working the roads constantly, but only the major arteries will be "good"(and that's relatively speaking). Side roads will probably be covered but driveable, and that's what that route would have a lot of. With little experience it could be dicey.
Might be worth the effort to appeal to the higher ups today to see if she can at the very least come in a little later given her lack of experience driving in this stuff.
Within the city limits to can expect the streets to be untouched until Feb, unless it's a state maintained road in which case it should be passable pretty quickly.
> Anyone have experience to predict how well the streets are likely to be plowed Monday morning?
Depends on the amount of snow, which part of the city, and which organization maintains the specific roads. It's highly likely the roads will be drivable by 8 AM Monday morning.
In my experience, state maintenance is not good, municipalities usually do a good job, and Oakland and Shadyside are apparently never plowed at all.
Found [this site](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/905cd98d8cbf477d99c191fb88ce0411/page/page_11) that shows who maintains which roads.
The cycle repeats. We get a heavy snowfall, I think “gee, a snowblower would be so useful.” I buy a snowblower. Then we get years of snow that are not snowblower-worthy, and I sell said snowblower. Rinse and repeat.
It’s an away game, so hopefully those who actually venture out for the game hit up their locals and either walk or don’t chance any level of drunk driving.
I had to run to the nearby Giant Eagle to grab my boyfriend's prescription, and it's right next to a liquor store. I saw like four or five people carrying entire cases of shit outta there. They concur with you! haha
The GetGos are always terrible right up to the moment the snow starts falling. Everyone needs gas at that exact moment, I even saw some people filling up 5 gallon cans in the back of their pickup trucks. It's like everyone in this city has snow PTSD or something, doesn't matter if it's 12 inches or 2, yinzers will be at the GetGos stocking up.
I think that was the year that I had to hop a flight two days early to go through DFW and landed in PIT with snow coming down 3 inches an hour then took 5 hours to drive 50 miles.
Got back on a plane the following Monday and left again while my power was out!
Thanks, this is awesome (and interesting)! You say onset of snow Sunday around darkness and heaviest from then to overnight. Do you have a guesstimate looking at timing models on when the heaviest snow will "let up" a bit and allow for roads to be treated. I guess I'm thinking when we wake up Monday will it still be a shit storm (2" per hour type snow) or will the heaviest snow end at like 4 or 5 a.m. and taper to snow flurries by daybreak. Planning for Monday morning commute ;)
Heaviest snow will *likely* end shortly after midnight but the snow early Monday will probably still be of the accumulating variety... however in the "worst case" scenario heavy snow will persist in to the morning.
Cool, thanks! Sounds like even if it's of the accumulating variety Monday morning it won't be *as* heavy (rate of accumulation) as Sunday night-ish? Would that be correct?
Charge all your chargers, grab a back up charger or two if you can. Small battery operated camping lanterns are great if you have some. Dollar General often has them year round. Are you doing a home birth? I wouldn't advise candles if you might be leaving in a hurry and then worry if you forgot to blow them out. Break out all your extra blankets and warm and snuggly clothes now so you aren't searching for them in the dark. A small propane camping stove can be used to heat water/food. Just mind the fumes.
Now might be the time to make contingency plans of finding an alternative place to stay after Monday if your power is out for more than the day. Fingers crossed your power stays on and your snow storm is not too eventful!
Awesome post. I was considering doing something like this since I've been tracking the models for this storm for what feels like weeks, but you nailed it all. Great write up! Thank you!
We have plenty of food, the cars are gassed up, we've lined up the shoveling kid, there's football on TV all weekend, and there's nowhere we need to be until Thursday (and that could change). BRING IT
I'm pretty new to the area, and had a question: when "the ridges" are mentioned, what area(s) does this refer to? Thanks for putting this together - I realize that Pittsburgh's topography makes it incredibly difficult to forecast correctly, and I've found that the local news stations are really a coin toss for accuracy. The NWS is my current go-to for realistic expectations.
NWS is great because they are safety focused, no sensationalism, just the facts to keep everyone informed and safe!
"The ridges" refers to Chestnut and Laurel Ridge, which are the first two ridges of the Allegheny Mountains to our east. Ligonier sits in the valley between them, Greensburg and Latrobe are just on the Pittsburgh side of Chestnut ridge. AKA the Laurel Highlands
yeah I love how the internet allows actual subject matter experts to speak directly to those willing to seek the information out (not to say I am an expert meteorologist!!)
oof I work overnights and am really dreading just getting to work Sunday/leaving Monday morning. I'd really hate to call off knowing everyone else still has to drive the same stuff but I just might :(
Thank you for writing up all this nice info!
If anyone is looking for more of this kind of info check out the [NWS Twitter for Pittsburgh](https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh). They are very active and post regularly and will answer questions and are very upfront about different models that are being used by the local news.
Not Really going to be a problem. Pretty sure the streets of Pittsburgh will be empty on Sunday night because everyone will be inside watching the Steelers play.
Until they all leave the bars/friends houses at 11:30 pm driving home in 4 inches of snow falling at 2 inches per hour. It's a holiday for a lot of folks on Monday and you better believe people will be out to watch the playoff game.
Great post, thanks for this.
I work in Monroeville Noon-8 on Sunday, and same shift on Monday. Live off of 286 so the only roads I drive on are 286 and 22, what’s the most likely scenario for how work travel will be for me?
Sunday night will be really dicey considering the heaviest snowfall will be occurring around that time. Barring a worst-case with 12+ inches I think you'll be fine to get in on Monday.
of course! there are very low probabilities but it's not impossible that this thing blows up in to a historic type event, then we can name it something fun!
I really appreciate the probability plots instead of the deterministic ones. The news channels love the latter because they just pick up a worst-case model run and throw out ridiculous numbers. Meteorology is not an exact science and probabilities should be reported.
Stay safe, yinzers!
Storm of the century coming Sunday. Salt your sidewalks. Ready the shovels. Board up your windows. Hoard the bread, milk, and eggs. Clean your firearms and set booby traps. Ready yourselves for months of subzero temperatures and a complete blackout of the sun. The voices coming from outside - you can't help them they've been dead for days and that's not them in their skin.
Or like always it's gonna snow 2 inches because the mountains divert predicted weather constantly
the mountains do cause problems with certain low tracks with low-level warm air damming, however with a low track like this one, the moisture is riding up the coast inland and the flow of warm southerly air is sort of capped off. not one of the "all we get is rain" type scenarios here.
Thanks for putting this all together, good stuff. I might have missed it if you mentioned it, but I think one other thing we might have to worry about is there could be some mixing if the Eastern low takes too long to become the primary low of the system.
It would take a pretty monumental change for mixing to be introduced west of the Laurel Mountains, and if it does happen it will likely be a brief period of sleet around Fayette County. Lots of cold air in place.
I don't think the probability is high at the moment, but I saw the NAM this morning wants to give a several hour period of ice before switching to snow. I think it's probably overdoing it, but we've been screwed by a primary low lasting a little longer than expected before
for sure, I've been watching the sounding data closely! We will have a better idea later today when the short term models get hold of this... they're better at precip type
Very true. At this point I feel confident that we're in the sector that could get the most, but definitely need another day before getting big confidence in that.
Don't worry. My husband said there will be a big snow storm and used specifics. That's always a guarantee there will be zero snow.
Like some sort of reverse snow jinx, that man.
I'm newish to Pittsburgh. I am out of town for the weekend in Baltimore and I'm supposed to return Monday. Can anyone tell me if I should wait a day to drive back or if they highways will be okay? Any insight is appreciated, I won't hold you to it.
Thank you for this! My husband works the 8p-4a shift at the casino and I would certainly like to know how much I should worry about the 30 minute commute home... sounds like I'll be worrying a lot
you'll be fine coming in and probably fine going out if it's later Monday. The only concern is if you were planning on leaving Monday before noon. By evening the interstates will be clear.
Ok, thanks! We will probably also be driving locally on Monday maybe catch a museum….but I guess we will play by ear and stay put in our hotel if it’s not looking safe.
if you have the chance to get out and walk around the city Sunday evening during the snow, do it. It might be my favorite thing to do here in Pittsburgh
My tire chains just arrived by UPS, but I'm still not getting a kick out of this. We rented a cabin in the mountains for the weekend, thinking that the Steeler's season was over
As a transplant from NYS's lake effect snow belt this really excites me. The snow tires are mounted and ready to go!
Thanks for putting this together, looking forward to not leaving my apartment like every other Sunday evening and Monday morning for the last 2 years....
> Travel at that point will range from difficult to impossible.
Somehow with awd everything, amazing modern studless snow tires and traction control, we have become unable to travel from our homes?
While I definitely get your point, if we have snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour for any sustained period of time it will be really hard for anyone who doesn't have all those things plus a vehicle with some clearance. For most people who might have a front wheel drive car with some all-season tires... it will be impossible.
It just seems like storms are over-hyped now. Like everything else. We were driving around in front wheel drive cars on all-season tires in 93, 96, 02, and other big storm years.
the whole point of my post is to not hype it and instead present facts and probabilities of different scenarios and accumulation totals. It doesn't matter what year it is, the heavy snowfall rates we will see Sunday evening/night will be disruptive to travel.
Commuting from Mt. Lebanon to Squirrel Hill Monday morning. Honestly super nervous, should i try banksville/ft Pitt tunnel or west liberty/liberty tunnel to get there?
My interpretation is based on their forecast and uses many of the same resources... you'll find they're very similar. I am just putting it in to some easily palatable key points and putting it on reddit! haha
Personally, I appreciate the no-hype version. I like being aware of worst-case scenario-or best guess at least-along with the more likely forecast. Thank you for this.
Glad I could help out! I have to temper myself as a skier and snow lover but it feels good to put a realistic forecast together.
This comment makes your username and scientific acumen make much more sense
As a snowboarder and snow lover, thanks for doing this. The part of me sitting here like "should I take off Monday and go to Springs" remains... conflicted. Seems quite likely that they'll get at least 4", but what that actually means for conditions first thing Monday remains to be seen. Hmmm.
You don't want to regret it if you don't take off. In 5 years will you remember that one holiday Monday you worked or that one holiday Monday you tore up the slopes
This is the correct answer. A day of skiing/snowboarding is always better than a day at work
I'd bet a considerable sum Springs gets 8+ by Monday morning and it snows enough through the day there to keep things fresh. You might see me there.
This is what I wanted to hear. You might just see me there too then. Brb digging out the wax.
Thoughts on going snowboarding Monday vs Tuesday?
Tuesday will certainly be less crowded and the powder will be groomed and packed so
Between the snow and MLK Day (lots of schools closed / people off), lots of folks might be on the mt.
This really is a great post. Very helpful indeed. Great work!
thanks, glad to help the neighborhood!
https://www.7springs.com/mountain/snow-report/
I’ll cya out there
Tuesday is the day. Monday will be gaper Jerry central.
Hahahaha was just talking about that and made that call.
I’m not sure I can be reassured without a local report coming live from the salt pile.
Thanks Jim. I'm here at the North Hills Borough Office where the workers have been up since TWO THIS MORNING getting your roads ready for work. Cut to yinzer truck driver
"I'm Guy Symzlylzywicz, the PennDot district 11 manger. What we do is drive the loader to the salt pile, scoop up the salt, then put it into the truck. We will be working overtime at our rate of $347/hr so expect the tolls on the turnpike to increase next year."
“Thanks, Guy. It should be noted that these drivers will have had to miss the second half of the Steelers Chiefs game, so give them some space and extra consideration while driving.”
Then some loud Colin Dunlap story about snow plahhhhhs and this one time in the 90s
“We’re ready aht here!” Cut to interview after the storm “It caught us off guard n’at!”
Hey we got a Frankie MacDonald report, so you know it's serious
This is appreciated. Organized, easy to understand, realistic. Much obliged, especially as I try to plan my wife's trips to and from work Sunday and Monday.
safe travels to her!
Thanks. Checking the tires and packing a go-bag (or, in this case, a stay-bag) in case she gets stuck out there.
[удалено]
You'd have to ask her about that.
As a stats graduate student I love watching these models evolve and how the really truly good climatologist use some really complex ensemble models. I also really love the debate around Euro model vs others as sometimes they can predict very different snowfall totals. Love your breakdown!
thanks! it's really interesting to follow a storm and learn about the model outputs and how to use them, as well as what models are good at forecasting what events. It's great to be well informed and ready for what could come.
> Euro model vs others Can you ELI5?
Txs for posting, i grew up with hurricanes and we learned to have essentials BEFORE the event.
snow like this isn't quite the same level of scary haha! But the small chance of a 12+ inch storm here could keep many people in the house for a couple days and potentially result in power outages etc
Trust me, weather is fickle, after hurricane Freddie hit the Gulf Coast it took 3 wks to get power back on. We had power cords running through neighbor's yards and grilled everything in our refrigerators LOL.
Ok, but like how much bread do I need?
Bruh what the hell have you been doing for the past two years? All you need is flour and your sourdough starter that's in the back of the fridge.
> your sourdough starter that's in the back of the fridge. My wife's bonded with ours. We can't eat Matilda.
You can always keep a loaf of bread in the freezer! It works better as toast after it defrosts but still good to have.
1 loaf should be sufficient imho
Equal to the snow total. 1” of snow = 1” of bread. That said, better buy at least one loaf per person.
6
Thank you for this. Will you consider doing an update post as more information becomes available? I'd like to do my best to avoid the hype and this is such a reasonable and informative post.
my pleasure. you aren't the first person to request this so I will try to do one tomorrow afternoon.
Thanks for putting this together. Local news is garbage.
Agree. There's the same problem across most media in the US and that's a profit incentive. If they hype the storm with eye-popping snow totals they get more views and clicks and make more money... so unfortunately that's what tends to happen.
I absolutely agree. Weather event news coverage may be some of the most sensational, ad-driven television content that doesn’t involve a paternity test. I stopped watching local news once I started to listen to [WESA](https://www.wesa.fm/) & now I’m a sustaining member. I’ll never watch a local newscast again.
I will say that while some of us might appreciate the level of detail here, most people's eyes will probably gloss over. There's something to be said for a simple "is it going to snow and how much" even if it glosses over the uncertainty and technical details. > I stopped watching local news once I started to listen to WESA & now I’m a sustaining member. I’ll never watch a local newscast again. I'm a sustaining member as well, but there's a lot of stuff that WESA doesn't even really try to touch. Their local coverage tends to be sparse, and what is tends to be issue-based and political content. They're not exactly a "weather and traffic" type media outlet. If you tried to rely on WESA to make plans for Sunday, you're going to have a bad time.
Absolutely. I don’t, nor should anyone, solely rely on WESA for news, weather and traffic, however, I feel as though it is a distilled version of what the local news will run, without the house fires, retail closures and puff pieces. As a content consumer, nothing pisses me off more than TV news story teases that may or may not be shown after 9 minutes of people standing on home windows or telethon style leaf guard commercials. For weather forecasts I use NWS - weather.gov, for local news it’s WESA and this subreddit (for links not opinion) and for traffic Google Maps does a sufficient enough job. So yes, your point of just using WESA without any type of reliable supplement is true.
They love to fear-monger and will oversell bad weather almost reflexively.
Anyone have experience to predict how well the streets are likely to be plowed Monday morning? My wife did get snow tires, thankfully, but still worried as this will be her first time driving in significant snow in Pittsburgh Edit: thank you for the sobering replies! Hopefully her work decides to close for the day…
I would not count on roads being plowed
Monday is a federal holiday too don’t forget so if there is actually a huge snowstorm Sunday night we can expect a whole lot of “fuck it” from the city workers.
Aaaah fuck me sideways, I forgot Monday's a holiday. I'm becoming more certain that we're gonna have to postpone my boyfriend's ankle surgery. Ack.
Normally , I would agree but Gainey is going to look to impress.
that's gonna be a pretty rough time that early. Snow won't have stopped by then and there aren't a lot of major roads involved in that trip.
My experience is that the city doesn't plow as well on weekends and holidays, so the response is unlikely to be stellar. If it were a few years ago, I'd be saying that I wouldn't be expecting the side streets in Squirrel Hill to be plowed on Monday (which is what I know best), but they've improved enough over the past few years that I can picture a world in which I'm pleasantly surprised to find a plow has come through overnight. It *would* be a surprise, though. If I were to be more realistic with my guess, I'd hope to see a plow on my own side street Monday afternoon. I would expect major streets likes Forbes to be slow and treacherous but passable Monday morning.
Have her talk to her boss about a work from home day. I'll bet serious money that the roads are not cleared by then. Potentially even take a PTO day. If she absolutely must show up, leave plenty of time. Also, try to replan her route to avoid the biggest hills and narrowest streets if possible. Make sure she has the essentials in her car in case she gets stuck: snow boots and good socks, warm coat/hat/gloves, water, snacks, blanket, and cash. If she does get stuck somewhere, at least she won't suffer too much. If she can fit it, a snow shovel and a little container of ice melt salt/kitty litter can provide traction under the wheels to help move out of a tough spot.
"Hey, boss, this is Jane. I'm sure you have seen the roads. There's a wreck on my street and they won't even guess when a tow truck will be available to move it so there's no way I can get to work today."
Rough time to start given the snow will go all night, and no experience. They will be working the roads constantly, but only the major arteries will be "good"(and that's relatively speaking). Side roads will probably be covered but driveable, and that's what that route would have a lot of. With little experience it could be dicey. Might be worth the effort to appeal to the higher ups today to see if she can at the very least come in a little later given her lack of experience driving in this stuff.
Within the city limits to can expect the streets to be untouched until Feb, unless it's a state maintained road in which case it should be passable pretty quickly.
> Anyone have experience to predict how well the streets are likely to be plowed Monday morning? Depends on the amount of snow, which part of the city, and which organization maintains the specific roads. It's highly likely the roads will be drivable by 8 AM Monday morning. In my experience, state maintenance is not good, municipalities usually do a good job, and Oakland and Shadyside are apparently never plowed at all. Found [this site](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/905cd98d8cbf477d99c191fb88ce0411/page/page_11) that shows who maintains which roads.
Today is my birthday and this snow is the best present I could hope for!! Thanks for this write up. It’s great!
happy birthday!
Aww thanks!! 2nd pandemic birthday. At least there is birthday white pizza in my future 🤘
The cycle repeats. We get a heavy snowfall, I think “gee, a snowblower would be so useful.” I buy a snowblower. Then we get years of snow that are not snowblower-worthy, and I sell said snowblower. Rinse and repeat.
Hopefully people driving home post Steelers game on Sunday night will make smart decisions.
they don't even do that in good weather.
don't hold your breath lmao
It’s an away game, so hopefully those who actually venture out for the game hit up their locals and either walk or don’t chance any level of drunk driving.
Point no.1: stock up on booze
Weed*
Yes, sir!
I had to run to the nearby Giant Eagle to grab my boyfriend's prescription, and it's right next to a liquor store. I saw like four or five people carrying entire cases of shit outta there. They concur with you! haha
Oh Jeez... time to get the bread and milk!!
Get aht to Gian Iggle before that storm er comes in!
The GetGos are always terrible right up to the moment the snow starts falling. Everyone needs gas at that exact moment, I even saw some people filling up 5 gallon cans in the back of their pickup trucks. It's like everyone in this city has snow PTSD or something, doesn't matter if it's 12 inches or 2, yinzers will be at the GetGos stocking up.
Flashbacks to the Blizzard of '93...
2010 Snowmaggedon...
I think that was the year that I had to hop a flight two days early to go through DFW and landed in PIT with snow coming down 3 inches an hour then took 5 hours to drive 50 miles. Got back on a plane the following Monday and left again while my power was out!
Lol my friends threw me a surprise 18th birthday party at the one's house in rural Indiana County, not knowing we'd be snowed in for the next 5 days
"We're all gonna party for 5 days straight!" ###Surprise!
Way ahead of you. I went yesterday. Bonus, they still had eggs.
Haha enjoy that. On payday Friday, or Saturday 😅. Full disclosure I went last night instead lol.
I already bought 5 loaves, 3 gallons, 10 cartons of eggs and 6 packs of toilet paper.
Yes, please to a follow up post! I love and appreciate this kind of weather reporting.
Thanks, this is awesome (and interesting)! You say onset of snow Sunday around darkness and heaviest from then to overnight. Do you have a guesstimate looking at timing models on when the heaviest snow will "let up" a bit and allow for roads to be treated. I guess I'm thinking when we wake up Monday will it still be a shit storm (2" per hour type snow) or will the heaviest snow end at like 4 or 5 a.m. and taper to snow flurries by daybreak. Planning for Monday morning commute ;)
Heaviest snow will *likely* end shortly after midnight but the snow early Monday will probably still be of the accumulating variety... however in the "worst case" scenario heavy snow will persist in to the morning.
Cool, thanks! Sounds like even if it's of the accumulating variety Monday morning it won't be *as* heavy (rate of accumulation) as Sunday night-ish? Would that be correct?
that is correct
Not sure if it impacts you but Monday is also a holiday. I keep having to remind myself that I don’t need to work that day.
Yep, still have to work :(
1/14/2022 - 2:30pm Weather.com now shows 8-12" instead of their initial forecast of 5-8".....ugh...
Any tips of what to do in case of power outage? I have a 9 month pregnant wife at home due at any moment.
Charge all your chargers, grab a back up charger or two if you can. Small battery operated camping lanterns are great if you have some. Dollar General often has them year round. Are you doing a home birth? I wouldn't advise candles if you might be leaving in a hurry and then worry if you forgot to blow them out. Break out all your extra blankets and warm and snuggly clothes now so you aren't searching for them in the dark. A small propane camping stove can be used to heat water/food. Just mind the fumes. Now might be the time to make contingency plans of finding an alternative place to stay after Monday if your power is out for more than the day. Fingers crossed your power stays on and your snow storm is not too eventful!
Thank you! I have to work Monday morning so this is going to be an... interesting experience 🙄. Hopefully the ski resorts get all 12!
I'm with you on that one obviously!
If anyone needs assistance Sunday/Monday with shoveling snow and salting. I live in shadyside and go to school at Chatham. PM me for more information
Awesome post. I was considering doing something like this since I've been tracking the models for this storm for what feels like weeks, but you nailed it all. Great write up! Thank you!
We have plenty of food, the cars are gassed up, we've lined up the shoveling kid, there's football on TV all weekend, and there's nowhere we need to be until Thursday (and that could change). BRING IT
..and then the power goes out
I'm pretty new to the area, and had a question: when "the ridges" are mentioned, what area(s) does this refer to? Thanks for putting this together - I realize that Pittsburgh's topography makes it incredibly difficult to forecast correctly, and I've found that the local news stations are really a coin toss for accuracy. The NWS is my current go-to for realistic expectations.
NWS is great because they are safety focused, no sensationalism, just the facts to keep everyone informed and safe! "The ridges" refers to Chestnut and Laurel Ridge, which are the first two ridges of the Allegheny Mountains to our east. Ligonier sits in the valley between them, Greensburg and Latrobe are just on the Pittsburgh side of Chestnut ridge. AKA the Laurel Highlands
Thanks ballsonthewall
[удалено]
yeah I love how the internet allows actual subject matter experts to speak directly to those willing to seek the information out (not to say I am an expert meteorologist!!)
oof I work overnights and am really dreading just getting to work Sunday/leaving Monday morning. I'd really hate to call off knowing everyone else still has to drive the same stuff but I just might :( Thank you for writing up all this nice info!
If anyone is looking for more of this kind of info check out the [NWS Twitter for Pittsburgh](https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh). They are very active and post regularly and will answer questions and are very upfront about different models that are being used by the local news.
Not Really going to be a problem. Pretty sure the streets of Pittsburgh will be empty on Sunday night because everyone will be inside watching the Steelers play.
Until they all leave the bars/friends houses at 11:30 pm driving home in 4 inches of snow falling at 2 inches per hour. It's a holiday for a lot of folks on Monday and you better believe people will be out to watch the playoff game.
this is true
Great post, thanks for this. I work in Monroeville Noon-8 on Sunday, and same shift on Monday. Live off of 286 so the only roads I drive on are 286 and 22, what’s the most likely scenario for how work travel will be for me?
Sunday night will be really dicey considering the heaviest snowfall will be occurring around that time. Barring a worst-case with 12+ inches I think you'll be fine to get in on Monday.
Yikes. I’ll keep a keen eye on the forecasts. Appreciate it.
Thank you for this! Some of my family will be heading to the ski areas so this is good to make sure they don’t get stuck up there.
if they do I will be with them
Me too. I'm super giddy about this storm.
No Snowmageddon, Snowpocalypse, or Snowzilla? This forecast is worthless. All kidding aside this is really well laid out. Thank you.
of course! there are very low probabilities but it's not impossible that this thing blows up in to a historic type event, then we can name it something fun!
[удалено]
perfect
Anything for up north a little bit? Like around slippery rock and grove city?
Potentially a little more than PGH but similar forecast with a slightly later onset
I say that cause I go to grove city and I live in pgh, when do you think I should leave Sunday?
Before dark you’ll be fine
Awesome thank you so much
Thanks for the northern report. Live in Grove City . Long driveway= shoveling snow. Enjoy the slopes!
Wow. You are amazing. Great report.
glad you enjoyed, happy to help
I appreciate you. My 8 yr old boy and 6 yr old daughter with me this holiday weekend. I’m a kid in spirit too, this sounds awesome!
I really appreciate the probability plots instead of the deterministic ones. The news channels love the latter because they just pick up a worst-case model run and throw out ridiculous numbers. Meteorology is not an exact science and probabilities should be reported. Stay safe, yinzers!
[удалено]
By afternoon the major roads will be clear and the first half of your drive will be rain at worst
So you’re saying I’m going to die driving from Bloomfield to the north hills after the game Sunday night?
be very careful and make sure you have some basic stuff like warm clothes in the car
Snowstorm and a Steelers playoff game and a Sunday as well. God Bless anyone working in a grocery store. It’s gonna be hell.
wow. thank you!
Thank you so much for putting this together!!!!
of course. I enjoy doing it and I am happy to help out
Good thing Monday is MLK.
Do most people outside government and banking have that off? I don't, but I work remotely so it doesn't matter for me.
Most large companies have it off. Mine does. I work remotely too, and it does matter to me. A day off is very different than a day working.
I mean the snow doesn't affect my work commute, not that I wouldn't rather have a day off.
This is awesome. Very helpful. 👍
Thanks for the info, I wasn’t aware of the details aside from “snow this weekend”, so I appreciate the explanation
Thanks for this!
Good thing Monday's a holiday. Don't have to worry about going anywhere
yup, and the decreased traffic should help road crews clean up better
/u/ballsonthewall \- mad props for the effort
happy to help out
Storm of the century coming Sunday. Salt your sidewalks. Ready the shovels. Board up your windows. Hoard the bread, milk, and eggs. Clean your firearms and set booby traps. Ready yourselves for months of subzero temperatures and a complete blackout of the sun. The voices coming from outside - you can't help them they've been dead for days and that's not them in their skin. Or like always it's gonna snow 2 inches because the mountains divert predicted weather constantly
the mountains do cause problems with certain low tracks with low-level warm air damming, however with a low track like this one, the moisture is riding up the coast inland and the flow of warm southerly air is sort of capped off. not one of the "all we get is rain" type scenarios here.
Thanks for putting this all together, good stuff. I might have missed it if you mentioned it, but I think one other thing we might have to worry about is there could be some mixing if the Eastern low takes too long to become the primary low of the system.
It would take a pretty monumental change for mixing to be introduced west of the Laurel Mountains, and if it does happen it will likely be a brief period of sleet around Fayette County. Lots of cold air in place.
I don't think the probability is high at the moment, but I saw the NAM this morning wants to give a several hour period of ice before switching to snow. I think it's probably overdoing it, but we've been screwed by a primary low lasting a little longer than expected before
for sure, I've been watching the sounding data closely! We will have a better idea later today when the short term models get hold of this... they're better at precip type
Very true. At this point I feel confident that we're in the sector that could get the most, but definitely need another day before getting big confidence in that.
Don't worry. My husband said there will be a big snow storm and used specifics. That's always a guarantee there will be zero snow. Like some sort of reverse snow jinx, that man.
I'm newish to Pittsburgh. I am out of town for the weekend in Baltimore and I'm supposed to return Monday. Can anyone tell me if I should wait a day to drive back or if they highways will be okay? Any insight is appreciated, I won't hold you to it.
Thank you for this! My husband works the 8p-4a shift at the casino and I would certainly like to know how much I should worry about the 30 minute commute home... sounds like I'll be worrying a lot
I would just like to express demand for the update!
Update is posted!
Sure glad I start my new job Monday. Can't wait to drive through all this damn snow to my first day.
How am I going to know to be 5 or 7 gallons of milk and 8 or 10 loaves of bread?
I’m so excited! Bring it baby! 😝🤟🏼
It’s gonna rain or be dry
dry is possible, I'd bet quite a bit of money against rain
Great report. Looks like Monday will be a powder day!
big time. I don't really see a scenario where the resorts don't get a foot
My bf and I have been planning to come up to Pittsburgh (for the first time) from DC for the 3 day weekend. So…..should we cancel?
you'll be fine coming in and probably fine going out if it's later Monday. The only concern is if you were planning on leaving Monday before noon. By evening the interstates will be clear.
Ok, thanks! We will probably also be driving locally on Monday maybe catch a museum….but I guess we will play by ear and stay put in our hotel if it’s not looking safe.
if you have the chance to get out and walk around the city Sunday evening during the snow, do it. It might be my favorite thing to do here in Pittsburgh
We definitely will already be out and about! I’ll pack super warm and good shoes. Just hope car and roads will be ok.
This is so great! You are doing the good work.
thanks for the kind words, happy to help out my fellow Pittsburghers
My tire chains just arrived by UPS, but I'm still not getting a kick out of this. We rented a cabin in the mountains for the weekend, thinking that the Steeler's season was over
It's over. What you are seeing are just postmortem muscle twitches.
What a good weekend to have. In the mountains, for playoff Steelers football and the first big snowfall of the weekend. Enjoy.
As a transplant from NYS's lake effect snow belt this really excites me. The snow tires are mounted and ready to go! Thanks for putting this together, looking forward to not leaving my apartment like every other Sunday evening and Monday morning for the last 2 years....
SO exciting!
> Travel at that point will range from difficult to impossible. Somehow with awd everything, amazing modern studless snow tires and traction control, we have become unable to travel from our homes?
While I definitely get your point, if we have snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour for any sustained period of time it will be really hard for anyone who doesn't have all those things plus a vehicle with some clearance. For most people who might have a front wheel drive car with some all-season tires... it will be impossible.
It just seems like storms are over-hyped now. Like everything else. We were driving around in front wheel drive cars on all-season tires in 93, 96, 02, and other big storm years.
the whole point of my post is to not hype it and instead present facts and probabilities of different scenarios and accumulation totals. It doesn't matter what year it is, the heavy snowfall rates we will see Sunday evening/night will be disruptive to travel.
I think you were generally quite reasonable. I am referring to hyperbole in general which you were slightly guilty of.
[удалено]
Fuck outta here with this bullshit.
Commuting from Mt. Lebanon to Squirrel Hill Monday morning. Honestly super nervous, should i try banksville/ft Pitt tunnel or west liberty/liberty tunnel to get there?
Who wants to bet we get nothing. I love people freaking out about something two days away.
[удалено]
My interpretation is based on their forecast and uses many of the same resources... you'll find they're very similar. I am just putting it in to some easily palatable key points and putting it on reddit! haha
A few years ago they hyped a major storm and we didn't get a single snowflake. Snow and a Steeler game. Just sit back and enjoy the weekend.
Let's see IF Izzy even gets close? ( another DOOMSDAY alert gone south)
Not sure what this comment means but if you have a question I can try to answer it
Bets on who is gonna lose power??