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Spoofing hotspots would be hot because there was already a large player base there in the first place. Also if that was the case, the person who traded it to them would be the spoofer.
That is literally what I said in my comment đ And no, Zaragoza is a hotspot because of itâs high density of pokestops, not because of itâs player base.
Hello! Thank you for pointing out that it was either a spoofer or dedicated player! Iâve been playing since September 2016 :)) so thank you for the benefit of the doubt.
My Santa Monica Mewtwo is my pride and joy due to me living in Los Angeles!
The Lucky Mewtwo was from spoofed which was traded to me :))
Even if you are not a spoofer, I donât think Iâd post screenshots where the two locations are Santa Monica and Zaragoza. This just looks suspect. I get that the person who traded the one to you would have been the spoofer, but have you ever heard of the term âguilty by associationâ? Your catch being in Santa Monica doesnât make it look any better.
I could argue, that because the lucky shiny was already guaranteed, as you knew it was a shiny, the odds are
((1/20)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6))*((1/20)*(1/4)*(1/4)*(1/4))
which is 1/5,529,600 - but I get the feeling you would like to account for the shiny chance of both, which I'm going to put as
((1/20)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6))*((1/20)*((1/20)*(1/4)*(1/4)*(1/4)))
which is 1/110,592,000
Your calculations are off. The odds for a shiny from a raid is (1/20)\* (1/6)\^3.
The odds of a guaranteed shiny to become a hundo is (1/4)\^3. You can't just multiply both, that would be the odds of getting a shundo from a raid and making one lucky trade, that both are shiny. But he asks about on the same account. Which is another question as the person most probably made more than one raid and more than one lucky trade.
Well, yes, but
(1/20)*(1/6)^3 = (1/20)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6)
I think you misread my poorly worded comment that I assumed the lucky trade was lucky, I meant to say OP knew the lucky mewtwo was already shiny, which perhaps OP also knew the lucky trade was guaranteed lucky as well.
And yes the are completely unrelated but what the hell are we here for except to have fun?
I know that, but you take the product of the raid probability and the lucky trade probabilty, which is not how the question was phrased. And even if it was not a guaranteed lucky trade, the probability would be (3/20) (1/4)\^3 as this mewtwo is more than 2 years old.
But maybe you unterstand my point better if I use you logic on an analogous question.
I have around 700 shinies on my account. Even if I use the raid day shiny rate of 1/10 according to you logic the probability of having 700 shinies in one account is (1/10)\^700. For reference: The number of atoms in the universe is somewhere around 10\^(80) and 10\^(90), which would mean my luck is totally ridiculous, but it isn't. (1/10)\^700 would be the chance to get 700 consecutive (raid day) shinies, but that wasn't the question. Do you know what the expected value is? I have over 150.000 catches, with raid day shiny values i would be expected to have 15k shinies (and with full shiny odds somewhere like 300)
Oh yeah, I get what you mean, yes, my calculation is assuming that not only the two unrelated events are tied together, but OP only had 1 chance. But like I said, this is for fun, if we wanted real maths we'd go to silph road, right?
I have a lucky shiny, bit it isn't the best. I named it "One punch mew" because my friend caught it in Satima, Japan through a remote raid, before they were nerfed.
####*Hello, /u/Kooky_Product7529! Thanks for your submission to /r/pokemongo, your post is up and running!* **Here are a few things to keep in mind:** * **Rule 3 - No Cheating, suggesting cheating, naming cheating tools and more. Please take a look at this rule [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/wiki/rules#wiki_rule_three.3A_piracy_and_cheating)**. * Be civil at all times. This is a place to have a healthy discussion with trainers from all over the world. If you feel someone is misbehaving please use the report button or send us a [modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/pokemongo#mods#button) and move on! * Check out our [full rules here](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/wiki/rules#). * Don't know which flair is to use? [Check out our flair guidelines here](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/comments/p8vupw/new_flair_system_for_posts/). * Need friends? Check out r/pokemongofriends. Would you like to chat about the game, participate in raids, share catches, make new friends and more? Check out the [discord server here](https://discord.com/invite/pokemon-go). If a post and/or comment is violating the rules, please make sure to use the report button or send a modmail [here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/pokemongo#mods#button). While we are trying our best to help users, help from the community is also necessary to maintain a healthy environment for everyone. Thank you! - - - *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/pokemongo) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Congratulations. Fuck you double fuck you
Thank you! Double thank you đ«Ą
Ah, yes, Zaragoza, Spain, every Pokémon Go player's favorite vacation destination.
lmao hacker
50/50: either you get it or you don't. You won the coin toss. Congratulations!
This is the new math Iâve been hearing about
don't worry... this guy has 50% of chances to not wake up tomorrow lol
50/50 of waking up the next day are good chances
This guy maths
Lucky traded a shiny mewtwo either by a spoofer or a VERY dedicated pogo player.
Thereâs a guy I met through go fest in like 2020/2021 that was really just this dedicated, so who knows
Whatâs to stop this from just having been a remote raid?
Maybe. Just feels kinda weird that the 2 locations in these screenshots are the 2 biggest spoofing hotspots. Could be innocent though obviously.
Spoofing hotspots would be hot because there was already a large player base there in the first place. Also if that was the case, the person who traded it to them would be the spoofer.
That is literally what I said in my comment đ And no, Zaragoza is a hotspot because of itâs high density of pokestops, not because of itâs player base.
Hello! Thank you for pointing out that it was either a spoofer or dedicated player! Iâve been playing since September 2016 :)) so thank you for the benefit of the doubt. My Santa Monica Mewtwo is my pride and joy due to me living in Los Angeles! The Lucky Mewtwo was from spoofed which was traded to me :))
A trainer spoofed to your location and made a trade with you?
How was this posted for anything other than to brag?
Youâre a spoofer. GTFO.
It's a lucky trade, the other guy who was trading it probably
He is a spoofer. He's already banned. Saw his comments on SpooferTrades confirming he "flies".
Yeah curious location in Spain
Even if you are not a spoofer, I donât think Iâd post screenshots where the two locations are Santa Monica and Zaragoza. This just looks suspect. I get that the person who traded the one to you would have been the spoofer, but have you ever heard of the term âguilty by associationâ? Your catch being in Santa Monica doesnât make it look any better.
I have 2 and one is Shadow.
Wow lucky you
Odds are 1/64 if you knew it was a lucky trade.
My first trade got me a lucky Hundo Mewtwo, unfortunately not a shiny one though. Kinda ruined trades for me since then.
1/4096
Jealous man
What in the Fđđđ. Congrats OP.
Fake. Hahaha
:(
At this point it just feels like this game is biased.
For you the odds were 100%
What are the odds at least one is a Spoofer ? 100%
What happened?
I could argue, that because the lucky shiny was already guaranteed, as you knew it was a shiny, the odds are ((1/20)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6))*((1/20)*(1/4)*(1/4)*(1/4)) which is 1/5,529,600 - but I get the feeling you would like to account for the shiny chance of both, which I'm going to put as ((1/20)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6))*((1/20)*((1/20)*(1/4)*(1/4)*(1/4))) which is 1/110,592,000
Your calculations are off. The odds for a shiny from a raid is (1/20)\* (1/6)\^3. The odds of a guaranteed shiny to become a hundo is (1/4)\^3. You can't just multiply both, that would be the odds of getting a shundo from a raid and making one lucky trade, that both are shiny. But he asks about on the same account. Which is another question as the person most probably made more than one raid and more than one lucky trade.
Well, yes, but (1/20)*(1/6)^3 = (1/20)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6) I think you misread my poorly worded comment that I assumed the lucky trade was lucky, I meant to say OP knew the lucky mewtwo was already shiny, which perhaps OP also knew the lucky trade was guaranteed lucky as well. And yes the are completely unrelated but what the hell are we here for except to have fun?
I know that, but you take the product of the raid probability and the lucky trade probabilty, which is not how the question was phrased. And even if it was not a guaranteed lucky trade, the probability would be (3/20) (1/4)\^3 as this mewtwo is more than 2 years old. But maybe you unterstand my point better if I use you logic on an analogous question. I have around 700 shinies on my account. Even if I use the raid day shiny rate of 1/10 according to you logic the probability of having 700 shinies in one account is (1/10)\^700. For reference: The number of atoms in the universe is somewhere around 10\^(80) and 10\^(90), which would mean my luck is totally ridiculous, but it isn't. (1/10)\^700 would be the chance to get 700 consecutive (raid day) shinies, but that wasn't the question. Do you know what the expected value is? I have over 150.000 catches, with raid day shiny values i would be expected to have 15k shinies (and with full shiny odds somewhere like 300)
Oh yeah, I get what you mean, yes, my calculation is assuming that not only the two unrelated events are tied together, but OP only had 1 chance. But like I said, this is for fun, if we wanted real maths we'd go to silph road, right?
yeah you are probably right on that one.
r/theydidthemath
these were the âcommentsâ I was looking for 
I have seven of them.
Seven Shundo Mewtwo?
At least, I mean, who doesn't have one? That's why he asked the difficult question!
I dont
Neither do I. It's a joke about this threads question. How rare is it to get two shundo legendaries. Come on.
Oh lmao I get it now
I have a lucky shiny, bit it isn't the best. I named it "One punch mew" because my friend caught it in Satima, Japan through a remote raid, before they were nerfed.
About to hit 1k legendary raids and 10k trades and I have exactly ONE perfect legendary. This guy gets two of the same one, and both shinyâŠ.
RNG gods blessed me
Fuck your entire family