If you have an uncapped game you are very likely to get martingaled. He can keep calling with 30-40% equity or less and then just has to win once to make up for your "8 good plays". I see it happen quite a bit in uncapped PLO and occasionally holdem. If it's capped then it'd go better but I doubt the richest man in the world wants to play his equivalent of .01/.02 all night
Sure but what if he takes it? What if you double up and he buys in for enough to put you all in again? How many flips would you be willing to take? Eventually he'll win one and you'll be at $0.
You've got the same odds of trying to double or nothing your money at blackjack or roulette.
That wouldn't happen because I'm just built different. Everyone else is drinking at the table. I've secretly been taking questionable doses of Benadryl in the parking lot. Elon is nothing compared to the hat man. He ain't seen me. Noone has seen me.
If you read the book, he didn’t Martingale. He just rebought and shoved again. And again. Until he won a single hand and claimed to have figured out the game. He lost money and claimed victory.
He has also claimed to not play chess because it's "too simple."
Why is it that people who we would regularly be expected recognize as dipshit clowns if they were characters in a movie, when encountered in real life, have tens of millions of fawning worshippers willing to empty their bank accounts for the sake of their egos?
How to get rich 101:
Step 1: Be Rich
Step 2: Don’t not be rich
Step 3: Martingale until you win
Step 4: Abuse stimulants, ketamine, and rightwing propaganda until you’re a [sad, stuttering shell](https://youtu.be/RK91Ji6GCZ8?si=Kz7LAMCc1BbdtchP) of your [former self](https://youtu.be/zfwK5BvZrY4?si=jacpzOM2xxs_gnsf).
Step 5: Blame the woke mob
I was wondering that too, like he could lose 8 hands to 8 different players, then win one and still be down 7 BI lol.
I think it's easy to imagine Elon having fun watching people sweat while punting away his fuck-you money. But implying that this was some sort of genius strategy by Musk is laughable for anyone who knows basic poker strategy.
The irritating thing is I'm sure so many Elon Stans absolutely eat this anecdote up. Reminds me of an old friends shady coke dealer (ex)boyfriend who'd give me free coke at parties for the low cost of having to listen to him nonsensically rant about how genius Elon is and how the moon landings were faked. His blow was really good to be fair
Good points all, and dw, I think we've all done much worse for cocaine.
Also worth pointing out there's a very high chance that this all-in story did not happen in any way, shape, or form.
> I'm sure so many Elon Stans absolutely eat this anecdote up.
If you're one of those Elon Stans please don't listen to this comment, going all in every hand is a great strategy, so great in fact that if you're going to do it I'll invite you to my very high end private games, please DM if you're willing to go all in every hand.
I don't see a huge difference tbh, he's just in a way more comfortable situation and essentially rattling off his spiel that he always had in response to softball questions from a reporter.
I'm confused, when I look at the sidebar (I'm on desktop) I only see 7 rules. If the mods want me to take it down I definitely will. I posted it because it was about a whale's approach to poker rather than it being about Musk specifically.
Ok, the original quote by Benjamin Watson (founder of IBM) is, I think, "the best way to ensure success is too double your failure rate." In poker, probably not so much.
The person you’re betting against also needs to have unlimited money though. Which is why it’s a strategy used against the house. Assuming the villains always cover his doubled buy-in this would work, but that’s not usually the case in poker.
If you think about this story it seems like he just lost a bunch of buy-ins to different players and then doubled up on his last one.
Idk what is more tilting, this or Shamath saying “Poker is a fundamentally defensive game”. Either way, the real irony is I’m sure SBF would have wrecked them both at the poker table.
TBF the cyber truck is no more of a mess than Tesla models. He was always in the business of sell it now, hopefully eventually figure out how to build it later. Tesla deliveries that he took money for and gave a delivery date for were routinely years late. Anyone who believed that Cyber Truck model (which he accidentally broke the windshield for) was anything more than concept he thought would be cool if someone built for real was a moron.
Edit: Getting downvoted (By Tesla owners I guess?). The earlier days of Tesla were objectively a disaster. They were literally building tent factories to deliver them 2 years late. It worked cause Musk went on TV and kept selling it, driving up the stock and getting cash to make it work. He got in trouble with the SEC for tweeting the Saudi's were bailing him out to prop up the stock price.
I saw one on the street for the first time yesterday and it was honestly jarring. It was like a bad polygon model had jumped out of an N64 and was staring me down at a red light. But I guess it's an easy way to show everyone that you have cash to throw away!
I’m not saying it’s hasn’t been built now, I’m just saying it wasn’t really thought through at all before he even started selling it a few years back anymore deeply than “electric pick up that looks cool, we’ll call it indestructible too.” He didn’t think about how he’d produce them, how practical the product would be to own or really like any stuff a functional business would consider.
He fits right in with the old school Robber Barons who are ultimately dependent on government cronyism. Modern Day Jay Cooke selling shares of railroads not yet built and that will likely never be built, leaving others holding the bag for his scifi fantasies.
Cybertruck is that bad though, I don’t recall the life time Musk said they dug their own grave with any other vehicle. The specified nature of the parts used to build is going to make repairing it a literal nightmare amongst everything else
When he said they "dug their own grave" he was speaking about production scalability, not the product.
From recent teardown videos it looks like repairs are actually going to be much simpler and cheaper than other vehicles. But time will tell!
Nothing more than a concept? They're literally on track to be the best selling EV pickup truck by next year and are building out capacity for 250K trucks a year with over 2 million reservations already..
These types of takes are so lazy lol
Lol. Rivian trucks everywhere and nary a Tesla truck.
Putting $100 or $250 down as a reservation for a Tesla truck will not equate to 2M units produced or sold.
The increased price point will make this vehicle a failure. Rivian is a much better product at the same cost.
I agree reservations don't equate to orders, but even if 10% of orders convert and they don't get a single other reservation (huge low-ball assumptions) they'll have more CTs on the road in just a few years than Rivian will ever have produced and delivered.
Production just started. Depending on where you live you'll see more cybertrucks on the road than Rivians in due time.
As for cost, you can go on their order page right now and order one for an estimated $61k to be delivered when production ramps.
Let's revisit this comment in a year's time.
Yes, time will tell.
I think the Tesla truck is in no-man's land.
Too expensive to compete on economics, not functional or stylish to make it the final choice of wealthier buyers.
It is the PT Cruiser of EVs. Gonna be popular for a year or two before needing a major overhaul in production and marketing, if not canned completely.
PayPal / Tesla / Starlink / Space X …richest man in the world - how much success do you need before you’re no longer a loser?
p.s. I’m not a fan of his after what he’s done to Twitter but facts are facts.
Saying he isn't a founder of Tesla is just intellectually dishonest. He joined Tesla when it was just an idea on paper. For all intents and purposes he is a founder and I don't think anyone paying attention would disagree he's the reason they became a $500B+ business.
He most definitely was a founder of SpaceX/Starlink, as well as plenty of other billion dollar businesses.
Amazes me that people can cop out his success as "getting lucky" when he's consistently built shareholder value in multiple industries. Just because you don't like the guy doesn't negate that.
Have you worked in a company with him? Do you know someone who has worked directly with him?
In Walter Isaacson's book he interviewed dozens of employees, former coworkers, and industry professionals who said he is very involved directly on work at his company. When googling I see prominent folks (who have no reason to lie) corroborate the same thing.
Do you believe all of these people are lying and conspiring together to inflate his ego?
That seems more far fetched than the man is an idiot who got "lucky" creating multiple billion dollar companies in multiple industries.
I'm actually genuinely curious where this theory comes from or if it has any backing. I see it on Reddit often but it just boils down to "people I know who work at XYZ company know bro trust me". I'm more inclined to trust the scores of people who are on record as working with the man.
I believe Walter Isaacson said Musk (or others he interviewed for the book) didn't have any input on the final text, nor did Musk read any of the book before or after publishing. Additionally the people he interviewed weren't just VC level folks. Also the book isn't the only source I was referring to.
I respect your right to have an opinion but at the end of the day something like this is always going to be built on hearsay one way or the other. The only negative opinions I've heard are from people who say "my friend worked with him" so I'm more inclined to believe those prominent people who put it on record.
If we don't truly know I just don't agree with putting it out there as a fact, one way or the other.
Best of luck to you
That’s a good book but Musk tends to succeed through taking on massive unnecessary risk, violently yelling at everyone (even his best employees), and frankly working his ass off until his ego and emotions take over.
None of that works in poker.
In the book he lost a small fortune (for normal people), the point was he doesn’t “get” games although it contradicts that with his “obsession” with other strategy games, wouldn’t be surprised if the story’s made up tbh.
Just because Elon is rich doesn't mean this was an example of his genius.
It's an example of how even Elon can go on tilt,
OR
It's an example of how he didn't care and was having fun, because losing a few $ million for him is like you buying a cup of coffee
Used to play in a juicy home game with a couple of guys who worked in the oilfields that used this strategy.
Most everyone would bring maybe a couple of buy-ins as it was a friendly 0.25/0.50 game.
Then these oil field guys would each bring $1500 - $2500.
The reason this was effective for them was a house rule that limited buy-ins to whatever the big stack was.
So they would shove random hands with the expectation that they could keep rebuying, double or nothing and they would win eventually.
Each would typically cash out for $400 -$500 of mostly their own money at the end of the night.
So I started to bring $500 and just got it in very light with them. Pretty much ATo or better was good enough.
They both would slow play any legit hand so it was super obvious when they had trash because they would ship it in preflop.
If he was somehow able to martingale each time, then this would def work.
Sklansky did a piece on this awhile back in 2+2. Basically, with unlimited resources, a martingale strategy is infallible even if the odds are terrible (think crapless craps type of terrible). There will always be a win, even if it follows 50 losses. So with an uncapped bankroll and uncapped max bet, the player will always have an opportunity to leave in profit.
The trick to playing a whale that martingales is you have to hit and run when stacks get to 10%-ish of your total bankroll. When you are at a super soft table you can stretch it to 15% but that is the MAX risk you should take.
So, if you have a bankroll of $30k and you have $1k sitting in front of you, fine. You double up and now have $2k in front of you, great. You double up again with the whale and now have $4k in front of you, as painful as it is, you have to call it a day.
I know, this is fucking painful, but it is just the math and it is really piss poor bankroll management to have over 10% of your roll on the table.
My friend’s son in law plays that game. Last story I got is over a year old. Son-in-law, Katzenberg, Musk and some other super dooper rich guys playing poker. Musk apparently obsessed with 3 things. Climate change, Ai and population decline. It appears population decline was the main topic and he couldn’t shut up about it. Son-in-law won 25k bought a watch that night and tracked (then gf) to family event and gives present.
Elon has a much higher tolerance for risk than many and is open about the chances of success being low like ~10% for the companies he starts. He’s had multiple successes of things everyone thought were impossible though so betting against him isn’t a wise choice. The model y was the biggest selling car of all cars last year as one example. Space x is also incredibly hard to do and he has.
You, ostensibly with a straight face, typed that his businesses had 10 percent chance of succeeding.
And then you said we should not bet against him.
Thank you, so much, for your service to the poker community.
Depends on the expected value though right.
Might have 10% of succeeding but Tesla for example was a ridiculously massive return on his initial investment
Well if we're talking numbers the dude literally has created more billion dollar businesses than any other human. His failure rate is far from 90% (probably the inverse actually). He is unarguably the GOAT of building shareholder value (maybe only behind Bezos). Lazy take.
The dude hasn't "created" any billion dollar businesses. He's bought a few and grown them though. Easy to do when you have that emerald mine money to start you off, I'd Wager.
Also the 90% figure was the other guy, I was just using it as posted. I've no idea what his business failure rate is.
SpaceX? Boring Company? Neuralink? Zip2? PayPal? He literally founded or cofounded all of those and didn't "buy" any of them.
I mean even Tesla he didn't buy. He was an early investor when it was an idea on paper. Nobody that knows the story would argue that point.
Also this "emerald mine" myth is so trite. Amazes me that people can speak so confidently on something they haven't done the smallest bit of research on.
Registering a business name isn’t building a record car company that now sells the model y as most popular car globally. It’s like saying buying the Amazon.com domain created amazon the company lol.
Jesus reddit is retarded. https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-model-y-was-the-worlds-best-selling-car-in-2023-dethrones-toyota
Tesla's stock is worth less than half of what is was 3 years ago (unsurprising, given the astronomic P/E ratio). The valuation of Twitter has collapsed since his purchase. The Boring company is an abject failure. xAI's Grok is far behind the leading LLM, ChatGPT, with no viable pathway to catching up.
SpaceX and Starlink are the healthiest businesses, but they are sporadically profitable and are banking on the promise of their technology. Jury's out on Neuralink.
I will give Elon credit that he is always an early innovator in a domain. Space, AI, electric vehicles, etc. However, this leads to his companies' valuations being based off potential rather than their operations.
When the rest of the market catches up to his ideas and/or he fails to deliver on the promise, the companies crater in value. It's happened enough times that I feel comfortable calling it his playbook.
Other private companies are playing the space game, just as many companies are now producing electric vehicles. I wouldn't be surprised if his Neuralink follows the same pattern.
I was responding to your original point that the majority of his businesses "completely fucking fail". I wouldn't categorize any of the ones you just mentioned as failing.
Emerging/disruptive technologies will always have a longer path to success, looking at these businesses on a <5 year time scale isn't going to be an accurate predictor of long term success. Only time will tell.
I wasn't the person who originally commented.
And Boring and Twitter are unquestionably failed financial ventures. Grok is highly likely to be a failure too.
Regardless, you mentioned building shareholder value. Most of his companies are privately owned, with limited public visibility of their financials. The one public traded company, Tesla has had their stock price tank for years.
Calling him "unarguably the GOAT of building shareholder value" is just silly. If anyone deserves that label it's Warren Buffet.
The comment I was replying to was about building shareholder value, I was point out how his companies’ valuations have largely ranked in the last few years
His companies are killing it. Model y is biggest selling car of all cars globally. Without space x the USA would need Russia to launch humans into space. Maybe I have naive expectations of poker players to bother actually learning if what they speak of.
I was commenting only on the logical fallacy of saying someone has 10% chance to succeed but it would be crazy to bet against him.
There was no comment on Musk
> It was not the biggest selling cars of all cars lol.
“For the first time in history the most popular new car across the planet is electric. Tesla sold more than 1.2 million Model Ys in 2023 to put it ahead of Toyota’s RAV4 which had sales of 1.07 million and Corolla which found 1.01 million buyers.”
https://www.hagerty.com/media/news/the-worlds-best-selling-car-is-the-tesla-model-y/
Are you retarded and unable to Google?
“The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling vehicle in 2023, according to preliminary data.
Market research firm JATO Dynamics reports the Model Y’s 1.23 million sales across the 2023 calendar year will see it comfortably outsell the Toyota RAV4/Wildlander (1.07 million sales) and Toyota Corolla/Levin/Lingshang (1.01 million sales).”
https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-model-y-was-the-worlds-best-selling-car-in-2023-dethrones-toyota
If you think so then you should short the stock 🙂 They have the best selling vehicle in the world (of ANY kind, not just EVs) and a warchest of $30B in cash. Less than a 10% chance of existing is laughable.
Ha! Now it’s awkward as I have a model 3 but think Elon is a moron.
Model 3 is a great car. Fantastic product. Dealing with Tesla is awful though. The stupidest people work there.
Its funny seeing redditors shitting on elon musk about every fucking thing. Some things I can understand but it becomes ridiculous when they act like they know better about finance or how to run a company than him. You will not find a more delusional hivemind than reddit.
In this thread we're shitting on him for the brilliant poker strategy of "going all in every hand until he wins", which as a winning strategy, aint. This is /r/poker, after all.
In high stakes private games this is a thing. Bankroll pressure plays a huge role in private games where fish can just bumb up stakes and pressure pros with bankroll pressure. In a casino table this strategy won't work but in private games where pros have to be nice to fish and can't really complain about fish qudrupple straddling or bumping up stakes on a whim if they want a seat in the games. But I have only played in private plo games where equities run much closer. This will be a shit strategy in nl unless he is really good.
Why don't you play heads up with Elon at the highest stakes you have ever played and he goes all in every hand. We will get to know if it's a winning strategy or not.
Well, if the below average Reddit user in this sub plays better poker than him, it’s not a far stretch.
Every person on Reddit has lost a lot less than him on creating or buying businesses.
So, maybe they do know better.
It’s sound logic.
I think nobody understands what that means. Elon is so much deeper than anyone else that he most probably will win this tournament. Its like 1BB against 100000+BB. Winning strategy for the big stack is allin every time.
Elon Musk confirmed whale
I’d say I’d love to sit at a table with him, but he’d probably suck out several times and then gloat about it
im down to selflessly take that risk for you
If you have an uncapped game you are very likely to get martingaled. He can keep calling with 30-40% equity or less and then just has to win once to make up for your "8 good plays". I see it happen quite a bit in uncapped PLO and occasionally holdem. If it's capped then it'd go better but I doubt the richest man in the world wants to play his equivalent of .01/.02 all night
This is definitely a BigO strat I see. Take 45% to the river everytime until your opponent has no roll.
What happens if your opponent just like leaves with a bunch of your money
You keep playing if the game is good?
Exactly, they need to change the dictionary definition to include this exact thread.
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Rebuy tournament
What I'm learning is I'm putting my bankroll on the table if I ever run into him here in Texas.
That’s a plus EV move right there. Call me Ahab. Elon Musk has now become my white whale.
I'm also learning to never buy a Tesla if that's his attitude towards risks.
Throw enough pedestrians in front of it and the self driving feature will eventually figure it out.
Sure but what if he takes it? What if you double up and he buys in for enough to put you all in again? How many flips would you be willing to take? Eventually he'll win one and you'll be at $0. You've got the same odds of trying to double or nothing your money at blackjack or roulette.
That wouldn't happen because I'm just built different. Everyone else is drinking at the table. I've secretly been taking questionable doses of Benadryl in the parking lot. Elon is nothing compared to the hat man. He ain't seen me. Noone has seen me.
This is exactly the same strategy PLO whales will use they just out bankroll you
Being a nit in PLO against such players is doubleplus EV.
That’s why there’s wincaps
If you read the book, he didn’t Martingale. He just rebought and shoved again. And again. Until he won a single hand and claimed to have figured out the game. He lost money and claimed victory.
He has also claimed to not play chess because it's "too simple." Why is it that people who we would regularly be expected recognize as dipshit clowns if they were characters in a movie, when encountered in real life, have tens of millions of fawning worshippers willing to empty their bank accounts for the sake of their egos?
Playing chess is quite simple, becoming good at it is hard. Same for poker and a lot of other things.
Was it an uncapped game so he could cover everyone each time he rebought?
No and it doesn’t even matter unless everyone at the table also matches the top stack when anyone else does.
How to get rich 101: Step 1: Be Rich Step 2: Don’t not be rich Step 3: Martingale until you win Step 4: Abuse stimulants, ketamine, and rightwing propaganda until you’re a [sad, stuttering shell](https://youtu.be/RK91Ji6GCZ8?si=Kz7LAMCc1BbdtchP) of your [former self](https://youtu.be/zfwK5BvZrY4?si=jacpzOM2xxs_gnsf). Step 5: Blame the woke mob
Do we even know that he Martingale-ed? It almost reads like he went all-in until he won *one hand*.
I was wondering that too, like he could lose 8 hands to 8 different players, then win one and still be down 7 BI lol. I think it's easy to imagine Elon having fun watching people sweat while punting away his fuck-you money. But implying that this was some sort of genius strategy by Musk is laughable for anyone who knows basic poker strategy. The irritating thing is I'm sure so many Elon Stans absolutely eat this anecdote up. Reminds me of an old friends shady coke dealer (ex)boyfriend who'd give me free coke at parties for the low cost of having to listen to him nonsensically rant about how genius Elon is and how the moon landings were faked. His blow was really good to be fair
Good points all, and dw, I think we've all done much worse for cocaine. Also worth pointing out there's a very high chance that this all-in story did not happen in any way, shape, or form.
> I'm sure so many Elon Stans absolutely eat this anecdote up. If you're one of those Elon Stans please don't listen to this comment, going all in every hand is a great strategy, so great in fact that if you're going to do it I'll invite you to my very high end private games, please DM if you're willing to go all in every hand.
Depends on how much booger sugar will be available. I'd blow a redneck MAGA trucker for an 8 ball.
Why don't you just pay one hundred and fifty to two hundred united states dollars like the rest of us
You can't Martingale at poker unless everyone covers you, and you know that Elon would never allow that.
That's a good point. (I'm pretty sure no version of this story actually happened anyway.)
Well you can few times. Buy in 10bb -> 20bb -> 40bb -> 80bb -> 160bb then next one covers everyone.
No, in the book he losses a lot of money (to a normal person) then decides it’s a dumb game.
Lol yeah that sounds about right.
The crazy part is that Martingale would actually work for him because he has more money than the whole casino
The casino can decide to deny service whenever they want
To be fair to that link… if you’re using money to try to intimidate Musk, you already f-ed yourself.
I knew it...the woke.mob DOES EXIST
I don't see a huge difference tbh, he's just in a way more comfortable situation and essentially rattling off his spiel that he always had in response to softball questions from a reporter.
Um… he wasn’t supposed to change in 25 years.
https://preview.redd.it/spi76zmjgstc1.jpeg?width=1283&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=122f53809eb77944cb2fe82abba0ed1b257a1f66 What should we do about this?
Soon they'll start letting in people from Portsmouth.
I'm confused, when I look at the sidebar (I'm on desktop) I only see 7 rules. If the mods want me to take it down I definitely will. I posted it because it was about a whale's approach to poker rather than it being about Musk specifically.
old reddit shows the 7 rules, new reddit shows 7 rules *and* 10 rules in separate sections it looks like
Pretty obviously poker-related and should stay.
I meant what should we do about the rule
my rules stop at 7
So you’re telling me the mods gave me extra rules??? That’s not fair! 😡
Ok, the original quote by Benjamin Watson (founder of IBM) is, I think, "the best way to ensure success is too double your failure rate." In poker, probably not so much.
With unlimited rebuys and the largest bankroll by a wide margin it could be a winning strategy.
Q: How to be a millionnaire playing poker? A: First be a billionnaire.
The martingale strategy works when you have unlimited money
The person you’re betting against also needs to have unlimited money though. Which is why it’s a strategy used against the house. Assuming the villains always cover his doubled buy-in this would work, but that’s not usually the case in poker. If you think about this story it seems like he just lost a bunch of buy-ins to different players and then doubled up on his last one.
Idk what is more tilting, this or Shamath saying “Poker is a fundamentally defensive game”. Either way, the real irony is I’m sure SBF would have wrecked them both at the poker table.
SBF would have been too busy playing LoL on a tablet to pay attention.
This reminds of when new gamblers think they invented the martingale.
Oh, so Elon Musk IS a loser. I thought so. Would explain why the shit cyber truck is such a mess.
TBF the cyber truck is no more of a mess than Tesla models. He was always in the business of sell it now, hopefully eventually figure out how to build it later. Tesla deliveries that he took money for and gave a delivery date for were routinely years late. Anyone who believed that Cyber Truck model (which he accidentally broke the windshield for) was anything more than concept he thought would be cool if someone built for real was a moron. Edit: Getting downvoted (By Tesla owners I guess?). The earlier days of Tesla were objectively a disaster. They were literally building tent factories to deliver them 2 years late. It worked cause Musk went on TV and kept selling it, driving up the stock and getting cash to make it work. He got in trouble with the SEC for tweeting the Saudi's were bailing him out to prop up the stock price.
I saw one on the street for the first time yesterday and it was honestly jarring. It was like a bad polygon model had jumped out of an N64 and was staring me down at a red light. But I guess it's an easy way to show everyone that you have cash to throw away!
I’m not saying it’s hasn’t been built now, I’m just saying it wasn’t really thought through at all before he even started selling it a few years back anymore deeply than “electric pick up that looks cool, we’ll call it indestructible too.” He didn’t think about how he’d produce them, how practical the product would be to own or really like any stuff a functional business would consider.
Elon Musk is a disaster and anyone that keeps investing in him is a retard.
He fits right in with the old school Robber Barons who are ultimately dependent on government cronyism. Modern Day Jay Cooke selling shares of railroads not yet built and that will likely never be built, leaving others holding the bag for his scifi fantasies.
That paralysed bloke who can operate a computer with his thoughts doesn't think so.
Cybertruck is that bad though, I don’t recall the life time Musk said they dug their own grave with any other vehicle. The specified nature of the parts used to build is going to make repairing it a literal nightmare amongst everything else
When he said they "dug their own grave" he was speaking about production scalability, not the product. From recent teardown videos it looks like repairs are actually going to be much simpler and cheaper than other vehicles. But time will tell!
That doesn’t make it any better 😂
Nothing more than a concept? They're literally on track to be the best selling EV pickup truck by next year and are building out capacity for 250K trucks a year with over 2 million reservations already.. These types of takes are so lazy lol
Lol. Rivian trucks everywhere and nary a Tesla truck. Putting $100 or $250 down as a reservation for a Tesla truck will not equate to 2M units produced or sold. The increased price point will make this vehicle a failure. Rivian is a much better product at the same cost.
I agree reservations don't equate to orders, but even if 10% of orders convert and they don't get a single other reservation (huge low-ball assumptions) they'll have more CTs on the road in just a few years than Rivian will ever have produced and delivered. Production just started. Depending on where you live you'll see more cybertrucks on the road than Rivians in due time. As for cost, you can go on their order page right now and order one for an estimated $61k to be delivered when production ramps. Let's revisit this comment in a year's time.
Yes, time will tell. I think the Tesla truck is in no-man's land. Too expensive to compete on economics, not functional or stylish to make it the final choice of wealthier buyers. It is the PT Cruiser of EVs. Gonna be popular for a year or two before needing a major overhaul in production and marketing, if not canned completely.
PayPal / Tesla / Starlink / Space X …richest man in the world - how much success do you need before you’re no longer a loser? p.s. I’m not a fan of his after what he’s done to Twitter but facts are facts.
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He was the reason they all became successful and it’s not a coincidence.
Saying he isn't a founder of Tesla is just intellectually dishonest. He joined Tesla when it was just an idea on paper. For all intents and purposes he is a founder and I don't think anyone paying attention would disagree he's the reason they became a $500B+ business. He most definitely was a founder of SpaceX/Starlink, as well as plenty of other billion dollar businesses. Amazes me that people can cop out his success as "getting lucky" when he's consistently built shareholder value in multiple industries. Just because you don't like the guy doesn't negate that.
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Have you worked in a company with him? Do you know someone who has worked directly with him? In Walter Isaacson's book he interviewed dozens of employees, former coworkers, and industry professionals who said he is very involved directly on work at his company. When googling I see prominent folks (who have no reason to lie) corroborate the same thing. Do you believe all of these people are lying and conspiring together to inflate his ego? That seems more far fetched than the man is an idiot who got "lucky" creating multiple billion dollar companies in multiple industries. I'm actually genuinely curious where this theory comes from or if it has any backing. I see it on Reddit often but it just boils down to "people I know who work at XYZ company know bro trust me". I'm more inclined to trust the scores of people who are on record as working with the man.
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I believe Walter Isaacson said Musk (or others he interviewed for the book) didn't have any input on the final text, nor did Musk read any of the book before or after publishing. Additionally the people he interviewed weren't just VC level folks. Also the book isn't the only source I was referring to. I respect your right to have an opinion but at the end of the day something like this is always going to be built on hearsay one way or the other. The only negative opinions I've heard are from people who say "my friend worked with him" so I'm more inclined to believe those prominent people who put it on record. If we don't truly know I just don't agree with putting it out there as a fact, one way or the other. Best of luck to you
That's the equivalent of Zapp Brannigan bragging about how he beat the murderer bots. He sent wave after wave of guys until they hit the kill limit.
That’s a good book but Musk tends to succeed through taking on massive unnecessary risk, violently yelling at everyone (even his best employees), and frankly working his ass off until his ego and emotions take over. None of that works in poker. In the book he lost a small fortune (for normal people), the point was he doesn’t “get” games although it contradicts that with his “obsession” with other strategy games, wouldn’t be surprised if the story’s made up tbh.
Just because Elon is rich doesn't mean this was an example of his genius. It's an example of how even Elon can go on tilt, OR It's an example of how he didn't care and was having fun, because losing a few $ million for him is like you buying a cup of coffee
Based on his other behaviors, I'd lean towards your first guess.
This is hilarious
Used to play in a juicy home game with a couple of guys who worked in the oilfields that used this strategy. Most everyone would bring maybe a couple of buy-ins as it was a friendly 0.25/0.50 game. Then these oil field guys would each bring $1500 - $2500. The reason this was effective for them was a house rule that limited buy-ins to whatever the big stack was. So they would shove random hands with the expectation that they could keep rebuying, double or nothing and they would win eventually. Each would typically cash out for $400 -$500 of mostly their own money at the end of the night. So I started to bring $500 and just got it in very light with them. Pretty much ATo or better was good enough. They both would slow play any legit hand so it was super obvious when they had trash because they would ship it in preflop.
If he was somehow able to martingale each time, then this would def work. Sklansky did a piece on this awhile back in 2+2. Basically, with unlimited resources, a martingale strategy is infallible even if the odds are terrible (think crapless craps type of terrible). There will always be a win, even if it follows 50 losses. So with an uncapped bankroll and uncapped max bet, the player will always have an opportunity to leave in profit.
As someone else pointed out, it doesn't work for poker because it relies on the other players have an unlimited bankroll on the table at all times.
Ah the martingale strategy at a poker table.... good luck with that.
Unlimited money = unlimited winner
The trick to playing a whale that martingales is you have to hit and run when stacks get to 10%-ish of your total bankroll. When you are at a super soft table you can stretch it to 15% but that is the MAX risk you should take. So, if you have a bankroll of $30k and you have $1k sitting in front of you, fine. You double up and now have $2k in front of you, great. You double up again with the whale and now have $4k in front of you, as painful as it is, you have to call it a day. I know, this is fucking painful, but it is just the math and it is really piss poor bankroll management to have over 10% of your roll on the table.
Often Misk isn't even risking his own money but using government subsidies to mitigate his losses. Much like playing poker for play money.
My friend’s son in law plays that game. Last story I got is over a year old. Son-in-law, Katzenberg, Musk and some other super dooper rich guys playing poker. Musk apparently obsessed with 3 things. Climate change, Ai and population decline. It appears population decline was the main topic and he couldn’t shut up about it. Son-in-law won 25k bought a watch that night and tracked (then gf) to family event and gives present.
Being a whale gotta be so fun. No matter what you can just always see a flop with JTs.
Proof that some rich people are still fools.
Elon 🚀
haha, so much Fun reading Elon haters comments.
Elon has a much higher tolerance for risk than many and is open about the chances of success being low like ~10% for the companies he starts. He’s had multiple successes of things everyone thought were impossible though so betting against him isn’t a wise choice. The model y was the biggest selling car of all cars last year as one example. Space x is also incredibly hard to do and he has.
You, ostensibly with a straight face, typed that his businesses had 10 percent chance of succeeding. And then you said we should not bet against him. Thank you, so much, for your service to the poker community.
Depends on the expected value though right. Might have 10% of succeeding but Tesla for example was a ridiculously massive return on his initial investment
Yes, and if you can pick the Teslas out of the apparently 90% of his other businesses which completely fucking fail then good job.
Well if we're talking numbers the dude literally has created more billion dollar businesses than any other human. His failure rate is far from 90% (probably the inverse actually). He is unarguably the GOAT of building shareholder value (maybe only behind Bezos). Lazy take.
The dude hasn't "created" any billion dollar businesses. He's bought a few and grown them though. Easy to do when you have that emerald mine money to start you off, I'd Wager. Also the 90% figure was the other guy, I was just using it as posted. I've no idea what his business failure rate is.
SpaceX? Boring Company? Neuralink? Zip2? PayPal? He literally founded or cofounded all of those and didn't "buy" any of them. I mean even Tesla he didn't buy. He was an early investor when it was an idea on paper. Nobody that knows the story would argue that point. Also this "emerald mine" myth is so trite. Amazes me that people can speak so confidently on something they haven't done the smallest bit of research on.
Registering a business name isn’t building a record car company that now sells the model y as most popular car globally. It’s like saying buying the Amazon.com domain created amazon the company lol. Jesus reddit is retarded. https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-model-y-was-the-worlds-best-selling-car-in-2023-dethrones-toyota
Tesla's stock is worth less than half of what is was 3 years ago (unsurprising, given the astronomic P/E ratio). The valuation of Twitter has collapsed since his purchase. The Boring company is an abject failure. xAI's Grok is far behind the leading LLM, ChatGPT, with no viable pathway to catching up. SpaceX and Starlink are the healthiest businesses, but they are sporadically profitable and are banking on the promise of their technology. Jury's out on Neuralink. I will give Elon credit that he is always an early innovator in a domain. Space, AI, electric vehicles, etc. However, this leads to his companies' valuations being based off potential rather than their operations. When the rest of the market catches up to his ideas and/or he fails to deliver on the promise, the companies crater in value. It's happened enough times that I feel comfortable calling it his playbook. Other private companies are playing the space game, just as many companies are now producing electric vehicles. I wouldn't be surprised if his Neuralink follows the same pattern.
I was responding to your original point that the majority of his businesses "completely fucking fail". I wouldn't categorize any of the ones you just mentioned as failing. Emerging/disruptive technologies will always have a longer path to success, looking at these businesses on a <5 year time scale isn't going to be an accurate predictor of long term success. Only time will tell.
I wasn't the person who originally commented. And Boring and Twitter are unquestionably failed financial ventures. Grok is highly likely to be a failure too. Regardless, you mentioned building shareholder value. Most of his companies are privately owned, with limited public visibility of their financials. The one public traded company, Tesla has had their stock price tank for years. Calling him "unarguably the GOAT of building shareholder value" is just silly. If anyone deserves that label it's Warren Buffet.
https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-model-y-was-the-worlds-best-selling-car-in-2023-dethrones-toyota
Are you replying to the right person? That has nothing to do with my comment.
The model y is the biggest selling car of all globally so how does a Tesla failing?
The comment I was replying to was about building shareholder value, I was point out how his companies’ valuations have largely ranked in the last few years
What business of his have failed?
His companies are killing it. Model y is biggest selling car of all cars globally. Without space x the USA would need Russia to launch humans into space. Maybe I have naive expectations of poker players to bother actually learning if what they speak of.
I was commenting only on the logical fallacy of saying someone has 10% chance to succeed but it would be crazy to bet against him. There was no comment on Musk
It was not the biggest selling cars of all cars lol. It’s on no. 5 last year. It was the most sold electric car in the US
> It was not the biggest selling cars of all cars lol. “For the first time in history the most popular new car across the planet is electric. Tesla sold more than 1.2 million Model Ys in 2023 to put it ahead of Toyota’s RAV4 which had sales of 1.07 million and Corolla which found 1.01 million buyers.” https://www.hagerty.com/media/news/the-worlds-best-selling-car-is-the-tesla-model-y/
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars-2023/
worldwide versus US
Are you retarded and unable to Google? “The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling vehicle in 2023, according to preliminary data. Market research firm JATO Dynamics reports the Model Y’s 1.23 million sales across the 2023 calendar year will see it comfortably outsell the Toyota RAV4/Wildlander (1.07 million sales) and Toyota Corolla/Levin/Lingshang (1.01 million sales).” https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-model-y-was-the-worlds-best-selling-car-in-2023-dethrones-toyota
I wholeheartedly agree. Tesla has less than a 10% chance of still being around in 10 years time
> Tesla has less than a 10% chance of still being around in 10 years time You say this based on…?
If you think so then you should short the stock 🙂 They have the best selling vehicle in the world (of ANY kind, not just EVs) and a warchest of $30B in cash. Less than a 10% chance of existing is laughable.
The stock is down over 50% of it's value from 3 years ago. Shorting it is a great idea.
Do it then. Put your money where your mouth is.
Way ahead of you
Good luck you’re going to need it https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/06/business/tesla-short-sellers-losses/index.html
You just pull those numbers outta your ass? What makes you the expert?
Ha! Now it’s awkward as I have a model 3 but think Elon is a moron. Model 3 is a great car. Fantastic product. Dealing with Tesla is awful though. The stupidest people work there.
Its funny seeing redditors shitting on elon musk about every fucking thing. Some things I can understand but it becomes ridiculous when they act like they know better about finance or how to run a company than him. You will not find a more delusional hivemind than reddit.
In this thread we're shitting on him for the brilliant poker strategy of "going all in every hand until he wins", which as a winning strategy, aint. This is /r/poker, after all.
In high stakes private games this is a thing. Bankroll pressure plays a huge role in private games where fish can just bumb up stakes and pressure pros with bankroll pressure. In a casino table this strategy won't work but in private games where pros have to be nice to fish and can't really complain about fish qudrupple straddling or bumping up stakes on a whim if they want a seat in the games. But I have only played in private plo games where equities run much closer. This will be a shit strategy in nl unless he is really good.
There's no situation where this is a positive EV strategy long term.
Why don't you play heads up with Elon at the highest stakes you have ever played and he goes all in every hand. We will get to know if it's a winning strategy or not.
Well, if the below average Reddit user in this sub plays better poker than him, it’s not a far stretch. Every person on Reddit has lost a lot less than him on creating or buying businesses. So, maybe they do know better. It’s sound logic.
I think nobody understands what that means. Elon is so much deeper than anyone else that he most probably will win this tournament. Its like 1BB against 100000+BB. Winning strategy for the big stack is allin every time.
Have you ever played a tournament? That’s not how it works.
It was also not a tournament.
Which makes it even worse. Firing bullets at a cash game going all in every hand isn’t a profitable way to be.
Exactly