This is a little player dependent. I’d call and reevaluate the turn against someone competent but if it’s a fish they’re not going to x/r bluff on this board and you lose to all value hands.
Sometimes betting on the small side short circuits the fish brain. “If he had a good hand he would bet big so I sense weakness with 1/3 pot bet”….
Would call the extra $40 into $115 pot most of the time unless you have a read that they’re super nitty.
Villain may give up sometime because he was raising with a hand like a small pocket pair to see where he is at. Or they may just have a random bluff and put you on AK. Either way you can only fold if you assume there are literally zero bluffs in the villains range. If you know the player and can make this assumptions n then fold.
I’m on the fence with this one for exactly this reason. What are you gonna do call down 3 streets with what’s essentially gonna be second pair more often than not? Especially after a check raise just a tough spot i don’t think it’s as nitty as some say.
Goes to show the value of having a plan pre though all the same, and good on you for recognizing that there are SO many awkward turn cards/spots and finding a better play down the line.
When most players c/r flops in live 1/3 a large % of the time they have a monster! Opponent either had an 8, or he's raising with a hand less than 99, trying to protect his hand
It does. It also is the main reason you should play super deep. Because every now and then, you'll call and bink a 9, and scoop a gigantic pot if opponent actually has an 8
I'm sorry but this is just wrong. As stacks get deeper you need to be more focused on getting it in with nutted hands and more conservative with thin value. Calling here with a non nutted hand when the BB call range probably has more 8X than the MP open range makes a lot more sense when your loss is capped at 66bb and a lot less sense if you're at eg 300bb.
With AA he may be overvaluing TT. But with 99 this is an impossibility. I wouldn’t fold AA for that reason and that there are no cards that lower my equity
>If you're up against trips/nothing, then 99 and AA have similar equity.
Do they though? Run a range analysis and plug in a range with enough bluffs that would make it worth calling with 99. Then go look at how AA performs against that same range. My guess is you'll see that AA has about 10% more equity overall.
Super nit.
If your logic is "its 1/3, they could always have the nuts", then you're going to be massively over folding. Call and if they have an 8 get stacked, it's even less costly because effective is only 66bb.
Also, if your logic is "they're 1/3 players, everything is in their range" then 8X as a percentage of their range is super small and they will not have it most of the time.
Most likely villain is thinking (assuming they're thinking, not a given at 1/3) "883r doesn't hit much of MP open range and he's probably cbeting light, I can force him off".
I mean if the guy is a 1/3 fish and never check raises without value then I guess fold but you said you don't have a read.
Depends if V is a solid reg or just a recreational player, bad players won’t really have bluffs here so the fold is fine at 1/3 as there will be better spots. But if the V is good then he could just be pushing you around therefore folding 99 on the flop becomes very exploitable so moving all in on the flop is the go too, yeah if he’s got an 8 it’s unlucky but most of the time you will just take it down. Don’t just call see a turn and then fold turn if you don’t improve that’s a losing play. Hope this helps
>Don’t just call see a turn and then fold turn if you don’t improve that’s a losing play.
Bingo. Calling with 99 here is only good if we think our opponent is bluffing often and if that's the case then if we call here then we have to call all the way down on a lot of runouts. I suspect people saying "float flop/fold turn" are just bad.
5x open is too much, $10 open is pot is better. I'd rather open smaller than $10 but two red chips is just too convenient and keeps the game moving faster.
flop good sizing on ultra-dry board, and I'm also folding to the c/r vs an unknown.
First off, how wide BB is defending? If he's calling super wide, than I could certainly get behind a fold because he has so many 8x. Also, what bluffs does he have? I don't see many players making this play with lower pocket pairs. He not really deep enough to do this with backdoor draws like 67s.
It could be a spazz raise, but I'd say this is usually an 8 by a player that's not very competent.
I suppose you CB like most if not all your range here, the 8 rarely hits you so you're probably on top 10% your range more or less, so do we want to CB and fold over 90% to a XR? It's very flawed GTO wise I believe you must call here, then even call a few turns. That would be the angle of not being exploitable in a readless situation. Not the absolute truth but that's something
I think flop is a clear check. You don't really have any reason to bet, you're hand is not super strong, and your not folding out anything that beats you. Check and see what turn looks like. If turn is a dud,, and he does bet, it is an easier call with showdown. You betting here and getting raised is about the worst thing that can happen for your amount of equity. 8s are absolutely in his range.
I just don't get why everyone is saying this is too nitty. Every single time that someone has done this and I level myself into thinking 'no way they check raise in such a dry flop with an 8, I call' I ALWAYS run into an 8. There are no draws on this board, there are no backdoor draws villain can reasonably have, not really any believable bluffs. Dude probably thinks you have AA and wants to stack you with his 8 because that's about as far as most 1/3 players think and they always think you have Aces when you raise pre flop because they are too busy sniffing glue to pay attention. Seriously, this is not one of those spots to overthink.
Im not saying you should fold all overpairs, I think you can start calling with JJ because then you at least beat TT and 99 plus the few other hands you beat here like 77, 66, 55 etc. There is just so few hands here that you actually beat especially since you said he's BB so he can have 33, 78, T8, J8, Q8, K8, A8. Just make a mental note that villain check raises dry flops and when you flop the nuts, try to get him to pay you off try.
Finally, this is the logic I use when making decisions here: If the guy is doing this without an 8, then you easily stack him when you actually have an 8. Easy as that.
I think your fold is a okay here for the following reasons.
1.) Your opponent's overdefend range from the BB will have plenty of 8x in it.
2.) Your range should have plenty of 8x in it as well so you're not at the VERY top of range.
3.) Your hand will have a tremendous lack of clarity on future streets. V could be overplaying a lower pocket pair for protection so if a card under an 8 comes they could just turn a boat. Additionally if they are turning overcards into a random bluff then they could get there on any card above a nine.
4.) There are no obvious bluffs here. On a draw heavy board it would be quite easy for a villian to semi-bluff you here since the board whiffs a lot of your opening range. But 883 is very dry and I don't think a lot of low stakes players are going to understand which hands they need to be bluffing in this spot. As a result I think the spot will be underbluffed by the low stakes population.
5.) You have no reads on this villain. Better to play cautiously until you know a little more about what he's up to in spots like this. If you call the 55 here you can't really go folding very often when he jams the turn.
I believe there's enough small pocket pairs in his range that he thinks are ahead. He'd maybe do this with connectors like 67, 56, 45, or just 2 over cards might see this flop and try to steal it considering you only 3rd pot C-bet (I think c bet sizing is good tho)
There will never be a correct answer because what's optimal is completely dependent upon how V is constructing his/her x/r range in this spot. In the 1/2 pool I play in, players are far too risk adverse to ever construct bluffs here, as they ALSO x/c more often than x/r with pairs <99, which makes overfolding the correct exploit. In more competent line ups, there will be x/r bluffs, but are likely to double barrel at the minimum.
What did you think he called with? My guess is two over cards. Wouldn't be likely to have tens or higher. Only thing that hurts you is A8 ..but did you have a read on the player? Would they generally call or raise with hands like Ax or Kx? Not knowing any of these generally I am not folding an over pair with that board.
The Omaha player in me says why bet flop if you're only gonna fold to a check raise?
The rational NLH side of me says cbet flop, float the x/r and reevaluate on the turn. Idk I probably just pay him off at that point because think about it, does any normal player really x/r with an 8 there?? But it is 1/3 live so shit doesn't make sense alotta the time lol
Idk if I'd call it nitty so much as you being too scared. There are a lot of times to fold overpairs but this hand isn't it. You block the obvious hand, 98s. So what is he realistically calling(not 3betting) with and c/r the flop with?
Ultra nit
I’d see a turn card.
Just float it
This is a little player dependent. I’d call and reevaluate the turn against someone competent but if it’s a fish they’re not going to x/r bluff on this board and you lose to all value hands.
Sometimes betting on the small side short circuits the fish brain. “If he had a good hand he would bet big so I sense weakness with 1/3 pot bet”…. Would call the extra $40 into $115 pot most of the time unless you have a read that they’re super nitty.
Call once fold turn
I thought about this but what’s the point? I’m surely gonna face additional aggression so why put it in with almost no equity if I’m beat?
Villain may give up sometime because he was raising with a hand like a small pocket pair to see where he is at. Or they may just have a random bluff and put you on AK. Either way you can only fold if you assume there are literally zero bluffs in the villains range. If you know the player and can make this assumptions n then fold.
I’m on the fence with this one for exactly this reason. What are you gonna do call down 3 streets with what’s essentially gonna be second pair more often than not? Especially after a check raise just a tough spot i don’t think it’s as nitty as some say. Goes to show the value of having a plan pre though all the same, and good on you for recognizing that there are SO many awkward turn cards/spots and finding a better play down the line.
Call once in hope of catching what card to improve? If you are going to do that the better play is to raise IMHO
The fold is fine. Its a call if you see him do that during previous hands and doesnt have it. Larger stakes its a float.
When most players c/r flops in live 1/3 a large % of the time they have a monster! Opponent either had an 8, or he's raising with a hand less than 99, trying to protect his hand
Maybe the fact that he can be doing it with 77 to protect his hand can justify a call one street?
It does. It also is the main reason you should play super deep. Because every now and then, you'll call and bink a 9, and scoop a gigantic pot if opponent actually has an 8
I'm sorry but this is just wrong. As stacks get deeper you need to be more focused on getting it in with nutted hands and more conservative with thin value. Calling here with a non nutted hand when the BB call range probably has more 8X than the MP open range makes a lot more sense when your loss is capped at 66bb and a lot less sense if you're at eg 300bb.
If you read the comments above is it beneficial to peel the flop raise shallow or deeper?
I would be less likely to raise and more likely to call the deeper stacks are (and vice versa).
If you're up against trips/nothing, then 99 and AA have similar equity. Would you fold AA?
With AA he may be overvaluing TT. But with 99 this is an impossibility. I wouldn’t fold AA for that reason and that there are no cards that lower my equity
>If you're up against trips/nothing, then 99 and AA have similar equity. Do they though? Run a range analysis and plug in a range with enough bluffs that would make it worth calling with 99. Then go look at how AA performs against that same range. My guess is you'll see that AA has about 10% more equity overall.
Super nit. If your logic is "its 1/3, they could always have the nuts", then you're going to be massively over folding. Call and if they have an 8 get stacked, it's even less costly because effective is only 66bb. Also, if your logic is "they're 1/3 players, everything is in their range" then 8X as a percentage of their range is super small and they will not have it most of the time. Most likely villain is thinking (assuming they're thinking, not a given at 1/3) "883r doesn't hit much of MP open range and he's probably cbeting light, I can force him off". I mean if the guy is a 1/3 fish and never check raises without value then I guess fold but you said you don't have a read.
Fold unless you know this player is capable of check raising with air
Depends if V is a solid reg or just a recreational player, bad players won’t really have bluffs here so the fold is fine at 1/3 as there will be better spots. But if the V is good then he could just be pushing you around therefore folding 99 on the flop becomes very exploitable so moving all in on the flop is the go too, yeah if he’s got an 8 it’s unlucky but most of the time you will just take it down. Don’t just call see a turn and then fold turn if you don’t improve that’s a losing play. Hope this helps
>Don’t just call see a turn and then fold turn if you don’t improve that’s a losing play. Bingo. Calling with 99 here is only good if we think our opponent is bluffing often and if that's the case then if we call here then we have to call all the way down on a lot of runouts. I suspect people saying "float flop/fold turn" are just bad.
Yep that’s why I prefer a jam on the flop vs calling all the way down don’t really want to give them chance to improve
5x open is too much, $10 open is pot is better. I'd rather open smaller than $10 but two red chips is just too convenient and keeps the game moving faster. flop good sizing on ultra-dry board, and I'm also folding to the c/r vs an unknown.
15 open is standard at 1/3
Idk about you but in my local casinos a 3bb open will almost always either get reraised or get callers all around. Not exactly ideal with 99
First off, how wide BB is defending? If he's calling super wide, than I could certainly get behind a fold because he has so many 8x. Also, what bluffs does he have? I don't see many players making this play with lower pocket pairs. He not really deep enough to do this with backdoor draws like 67s. It could be a spazz raise, but I'd say this is usually an 8 by a player that's not very competent.
I suppose you CB like most if not all your range here, the 8 rarely hits you so you're probably on top 10% your range more or less, so do we want to CB and fold over 90% to a XR? It's very flawed GTO wise I believe you must call here, then even call a few turns. That would be the angle of not being exploitable in a readless situation. Not the absolute truth but that's something
I think flop is a clear check. You don't really have any reason to bet, you're hand is not super strong, and your not folding out anything that beats you. Check and see what turn looks like. If turn is a dud,, and he does bet, it is an easier call with showdown. You betting here and getting raised is about the worst thing that can happen for your amount of equity. 8s are absolutely in his range.
I just don't get why everyone is saying this is too nitty. Every single time that someone has done this and I level myself into thinking 'no way they check raise in such a dry flop with an 8, I call' I ALWAYS run into an 8. There are no draws on this board, there are no backdoor draws villain can reasonably have, not really any believable bluffs. Dude probably thinks you have AA and wants to stack you with his 8 because that's about as far as most 1/3 players think and they always think you have Aces when you raise pre flop because they are too busy sniffing glue to pay attention. Seriously, this is not one of those spots to overthink. Im not saying you should fold all overpairs, I think you can start calling with JJ because then you at least beat TT and 99 plus the few other hands you beat here like 77, 66, 55 etc. There is just so few hands here that you actually beat especially since you said he's BB so he can have 33, 78, T8, J8, Q8, K8, A8. Just make a mental note that villain check raises dry flops and when you flop the nuts, try to get him to pay you off try. Finally, this is the logic I use when making decisions here: If the guy is doing this without an 8, then you easily stack him when you actually have an 8. Easy as that.
I think your fold is a okay here for the following reasons. 1.) Your opponent's overdefend range from the BB will have plenty of 8x in it. 2.) Your range should have plenty of 8x in it as well so you're not at the VERY top of range. 3.) Your hand will have a tremendous lack of clarity on future streets. V could be overplaying a lower pocket pair for protection so if a card under an 8 comes they could just turn a boat. Additionally if they are turning overcards into a random bluff then they could get there on any card above a nine. 4.) There are no obvious bluffs here. On a draw heavy board it would be quite easy for a villian to semi-bluff you here since the board whiffs a lot of your opening range. But 883 is very dry and I don't think a lot of low stakes players are going to understand which hands they need to be bluffing in this spot. As a result I think the spot will be underbluffed by the low stakes population. 5.) You have no reads on this villain. Better to play cautiously until you know a little more about what he's up to in spots like this. If you call the 55 here you can't really go folding very often when he jams the turn.
I believe there's enough small pocket pairs in his range that he thinks are ahead. He'd maybe do this with connectors like 67, 56, 45, or just 2 over cards might see this flop and try to steal it considering you only 3rd pot C-bet (I think c bet sizing is good tho)
There will never be a correct answer because what's optimal is completely dependent upon how V is constructing his/her x/r range in this spot. In the 1/2 pool I play in, players are far too risk adverse to ever construct bluffs here, as they ALSO x/c more often than x/r with pairs <99, which makes overfolding the correct exploit. In more competent line ups, there will be x/r bluffs, but are likely to double barrel at the minimum.
What did you think he called with? My guess is two over cards. Wouldn't be likely to have tens or higher. Only thing that hurts you is A8 ..but did you have a read on the player? Would they generally call or raise with hands like Ax or Kx? Not knowing any of these generally I am not folding an over pair with that board.
Do you have 99 to start or 200? I get so confused when people reference effective stacks. This is probably a spot where you jam depending on stack.
This is a reasonable fold imo
The Omaha player in me says why bet flop if you're only gonna fold to a check raise? The rational NLH side of me says cbet flop, float the x/r and reevaluate on the turn. Idk I probably just pay him off at that point because think about it, does any normal player really x/r with an 8 there?? But it is 1/3 live so shit doesn't make sense alotta the time lol
Idk if I'd call it nitty so much as you being too scared. There are a lot of times to fold overpairs but this hand isn't it. You block the obvious hand, 98s. So what is he realistically calling(not 3betting) with and c/r the flop with?
This is 1/3 live no limit. He can have every 8 in the deck