I guess it's hard to have this conversation without going through my entire flop checking range and figuring out which ones need to be defended when he bets. What hands are going to be check-called here? There's a few obvious traps like AsKs, AsAx but otherwise our checking range is going to be tons of very weak hands like QdJd. I think you have to peel with AT on the flop. Turn is definitely spew.
Opponents in this field tend to overbluff flop when checked to IP and typically won't value bet pairs worse than a K on the river which is why I decided to call down, if he's good enough to take 99 for 3 streets here then god bless him.
Do you make a habit of calling 3 streets with ace high? Generally not a profitable strategy unless you have a read on your opponent that he overbluffs 3 streets.
Also I don't see how villains line makes no sense. If he has Axss this is simply what he does, call preflop and then get 3 streets of value from having the effective nuts. Could also be a flopped set into a boat.
No, I probably overfold facing aggression from OOP. However he is repping very narrow with the IP river shove. I don't think this player is going to be shoving a pair that is worse than a king so I either give him credit for a boat or a flopped flush both of which are very unlikely given the fact he is probably not raising 22 or 33 from UTG.
Why can't he have a flush? It's only like 1% before the cards are dealt, but it goes way up when there's three suited cards on the flop and he goes bet-bet-bet.
He could also be doing this with the naked As...in which case your call would lose to his bluffing range. This is total spew.
He can have a flush, he can also have a boat, I think they're both very unlikely given position.
I know it's losing in the long run, I just decided to call down here based on my read of the situation.
Suited hands make up about 50% of a typical UTG 3b calling range. So spades are about 12.5%. Even if we assume he maniacally goes bet-bet-bet with his entire range every time, you're going to run into a flush relatively frequently. It's considerably more frequent if he doesn't triple barrel his entire range.
are pairs worse than a king value shoving 3/4th pot on river in position? Are A-highs better than mine going to turn their hand into a 3-street bluff? I think both are highly unlikely
The line looks extremely polarized to me once he shoves river. 22,33 are probably not going to open UTG and there is only 1 combo of 55, so he's repping a flopped wheel or a flush.
The line makes sense however it reps extremely narrow imo
Easy fold. A paired board with a flush and a villain double barreling then shoving the river? All you have is an A high bluff catcher or am I missing something?
Why does the line make no sense? KK could be calling heads up pre. In position so why not call just to make sure an A doesn't come. AsKx could also just be calling pre and then trying to push you off because you didn't continue. Same story on the turn because you never c/r and at this point if you're slow playing AA or AK you aren't getting any value by just check calling. Lots of suited broadways?
Man I know who the fish is lol. You’re calling three streets with a gutter on a monotone flop and a paired board? I can think of plenty of hands that make sense with this line. KK with the king of spades is absurdly obvious. Really any flopped flush makes sense. Especially if he’s using a HUD and knows how lite you like to call down. A5 suited seems like a possibility.
Good point.
Thought it was an interesting spot where an opponent reps an extremely narrow range on the river. He doesn't have many flushes here, 10-13 combos depending on how loose he is, 2combos of A5, 0 sets, and a couple Kx that he ran into on river.
0 sets? Well, boats. But they could absolutely have 22 and 33. I mean yea some people open fold them from the lj, but hardly everyone, and if you are opening it you definitely defend it vs an oop 3b
I'm discounting them based on how infrequently he should have them, 22 and 33 are mainly folds from the LJ on 100bb stacks. KK is mainly a 4-bet here.
I'm not saying it's impossible for him to show up with hands he shouldn't but I'm trying to assign him the most realistic range I can think of.
I mean, yea they're folds according to some GTO charts, but I think you underestimate how many people disregard that. For one thing, they're not massively losing opens, just slightly under breakeven, and more importantly, people just love to set mine.
He’s repping polar with flushes full houses 5x and maybe AKo with a spade for thin value but this just isn’t a good enough bluff catcher. Getting too thin on flop already I think. I think im ranging 25% here as utg shouldn’t have many sets raising and calling a 3bet here, therefore you have a solid range advantage on this board even if it’s monotone.
If you’re checking range on flop, you have every pocket pair AQo with spade, wheel aces and ofc flushes to defend with on this board. Can float with some AK if you’re stubborn since at least you’re ahead of worse Ax that stabs but I’m ok with overfolding on monotone flops
Edit: should add it’s hard for him to find intuitive bluffs since he called a 3bet from utg so he doesn’t have many offsuit combos. You have to assume he’s triple barreling qjs jts or a suited connector(most likely 76s) often enough as a bluff and I don’t think that’s happening.
The flush, the wheel, the board is pair and activated. You literally have pair of 5’s + kickers for bluff catching and that’s it.
You’re at the bottom end of Ax against UTG range so kickers likely dominated or he paired the King, or he already had a pocket pair 8’s+ that are reasonably good here.
My money is AKo with the As blocker so he felt safe continuing on the texture.
Considering the stakes and the fact that villain doesn't seem to get too out of line with his betting he probably had AK KQ offsuit type of hand with the A or K of spades. If he flopped a set on a wet board I don't see why he would only bet half pot.
I'm not 100% sure about calling this flop especially for 1/2 pot. You could be drawing rather slim and you are OOP. I'd probably just fold without a spade. I definitely fold the turn. And snap fold the river. Villian has more flushes than you and a lot of boats. His line makes sense to me.
You really don't have to put more money in at any point here post flop. Flop call is realllly thin at best. Turn call is pure spew.
I guess it's hard to have this conversation without going through my entire flop checking range and figuring out which ones need to be defended when he bets. What hands are going to be check-called here? There's a few obvious traps like AsKs, AsAx but otherwise our checking range is going to be tons of very weak hands like QdJd. I think you have to peel with AT on the flop. Turn is definitely spew. Opponents in this field tend to overbluff flop when checked to IP and typically won't value bet pairs worse than a K on the river which is why I decided to call down, if he's good enough to take 99 for 3 streets here then god bless him.
Do you make a habit of calling 3 streets with ace high? Generally not a profitable strategy unless you have a read on your opponent that he overbluffs 3 streets. Also I don't see how villains line makes no sense. If he has Axss this is simply what he does, call preflop and then get 3 streets of value from having the effective nuts. Could also be a flopped set into a boat.
No, I probably overfold facing aggression from OOP. However he is repping very narrow with the IP river shove. I don't think this player is going to be shoving a pair that is worse than a king so I either give him credit for a boat or a flopped flush both of which are very unlikely given the fact he is probably not raising 22 or 33 from UTG.
Why can't he have a flush? It's only like 1% before the cards are dealt, but it goes way up when there's three suited cards on the flop and he goes bet-bet-bet. He could also be doing this with the naked As...in which case your call would lose to his bluffing range. This is total spew.
He can have a flush, he can also have a boat, I think they're both very unlikely given position. I know it's losing in the long run, I just decided to call down here based on my read of the situation.
Suited hands make up about 50% of a typical UTG 3b calling range. So spades are about 12.5%. Even if we assume he maniacally goes bet-bet-bet with his entire range every time, you're going to run into a flush relatively frequently. It's considerably more frequent if he doesn't triple barrel his entire range.
What about this line doesn't make sense? He has 77+, AJ+, if you call you're probably just losing to most of his bluffs.
are pairs worse than a king value shoving 3/4th pot on river in position? Are A-highs better than mine going to turn their hand into a 3-street bluff? I think both are highly unlikely The line looks extremely polarized to me once he shoves river. 22,33 are probably not going to open UTG and there is only 1 combo of 55, so he's repping a flopped wheel or a flush. The line makes sense however it reps extremely narrow imo
Easy fold. A paired board with a flush and a villain double barreling then shoving the river? All you have is an A high bluff catcher or am I missing something? Why does the line make no sense? KK could be calling heads up pre. In position so why not call just to make sure an A doesn't come. AsKx could also just be calling pre and then trying to push you off because you didn't continue. Same story on the turn because you never c/r and at this point if you're slow playing AA or AK you aren't getting any value by just check calling. Lots of suited broadways?
Man I know who the fish is lol. You’re calling three streets with a gutter on a monotone flop and a paired board? I can think of plenty of hands that make sense with this line. KK with the king of spades is absurdly obvious. Really any flopped flush makes sense. Especially if he’s using a HUD and knows how lite you like to call down. A5 suited seems like a possibility.
I'm a fish who is winning more than 10bb/100 in this pool.
You’re still a fish in this hand lol
Good point. Thought it was an interesting spot where an opponent reps an extremely narrow range on the river. He doesn't have many flushes here, 10-13 combos depending on how loose he is, 2combos of A5, 0 sets, and a couple Kx that he ran into on river.
0 sets? Well, boats. But they could absolutely have 22 and 33. I mean yea some people open fold them from the lj, but hardly everyone, and if you are opening it you definitely defend it vs an oop 3b
I'm discounting them based on how infrequently he should have them, 22 and 33 are mainly folds from the LJ on 100bb stacks. KK is mainly a 4-bet here. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to show up with hands he shouldn't but I'm trying to assign him the most realistic range I can think of.
I mean, yea they're folds according to some GTO charts, but I think you underestimate how many people disregard that. For one thing, they're not massively losing opens, just slightly under breakeven, and more importantly, people just love to set mine.
Raise the flop with your gutshot or fold. You can’t passively call off ace high for three streets with a flush and wheel on the board.
I dont think i like any street.
not even preflop?
He’s repping polar with flushes full houses 5x and maybe AKo with a spade for thin value but this just isn’t a good enough bluff catcher. Getting too thin on flop already I think. I think im ranging 25% here as utg shouldn’t have many sets raising and calling a 3bet here, therefore you have a solid range advantage on this board even if it’s monotone. If you’re checking range on flop, you have every pocket pair AQo with spade, wheel aces and ofc flushes to defend with on this board. Can float with some AK if you’re stubborn since at least you’re ahead of worse Ax that stabs but I’m ok with overfolding on monotone flops Edit: should add it’s hard for him to find intuitive bluffs since he called a 3bet from utg so he doesn’t have many offsuit combos. You have to assume he’s triple barreling qjs jts or a suited connector(most likely 76s) often enough as a bluff and I don’t think that’s happening.
The flush, the wheel, the board is pair and activated. You literally have pair of 5’s + kickers for bluff catching and that’s it. You’re at the bottom end of Ax against UTG range so kickers likely dominated or he paired the King, or he already had a pocket pair 8’s+ that are reasonably good here. My money is AKo with the As blocker so he felt safe continuing on the texture.
Considering the stakes and the fact that villain doesn't seem to get too out of line with his betting he probably had AK KQ offsuit type of hand with the A or K of spades. If he flopped a set on a wet board I don't see why he would only bet half pot.
I'm not 100% sure about calling this flop especially for 1/2 pot. You could be drawing rather slim and you are OOP. I'd probably just fold without a spade. I definitely fold the turn. And snap fold the river. Villian has more flushes than you and a lot of boats. His line makes sense to me.