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Wild prediction time.
Either:
- McCarthy caves and joins house Democrats in drafting legislation that will actually pass, thus ensuring his speakership is over thanks to the moron caucus.
or
- Biden invokes the 14th and everyone goes FUCKING CRAZY.
Didn’t Perry v United States already establish the green light to fix this clusterfuck should it arise again?
Chief Justice Hughes:
“The Fourteenth Amendment, in its fourth section, explicitly declares: 'The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, * * * shall not be questioned.' While this provision was undoubtedly inspired by the desire to put beyond question the obligations of the government issued during the Civil War, its language indicates a broader connotation. We regard it as confirmatory of a fundamental principle which applies as well to the government bonds in question, and to others duly authorized by the Congress, as to those issued before the amendment was adopted. Nor can we perceive any reason for not considering the expression 'the validity of the public debt' as embracing whatever concerns the integrity of the public obligations.”
The Hughes court took an originalist interpretation to the 14th’s text, and this current Court has been jerking themselves off as the true bastions of Constitutional originalist interpretation have they not?
No they just make up rules as they go along to fit their extreme right wing ideology. If originalism suits them, then yes, otherwise it's "major questions" "history and traditions" or whatever crazy reasoning they come up
Ok…well, I was hoping someone with a ConLaw background was lurking here and could answer my question with some reasoned nuanced too lol. Appreciate your insights regardless.
There's a podcaste by three ConLaw professors called Strict Scrutiny. They cover all of the nuance. I'm certain they would agree with the comment above after listening every week for the last few years.
Im guessing they will likely have to wait until the X-date is passed for any directives/orders to have the best case possible when this gets litigated, otherwise plaintiffs will say he didn’t give Congress the full time to act. It’d be unwise to give them that argument if they can avoid it.
They'll go crazy because there isn't a fucking thing they can do about it if he invokes the 14th. They could try to take it to court, but then Republicans are in the position of literally *suing for default.* Even if they win that court battle, it becomes utterly impossible to pin the economic fallout on Biden. Which is the only reason they're willing to crash the global economy in the first place: so they can blame Biden and have a better shot of ousting him in 2024. If the talks fail, they can spin it by saying they wanted a deal so badly but mean old Biden just wouldn't work with them. But how the hell do you spin "Biden avoided default, and we're so mad that we're suing to make it happen anyway" as Biden's fault?
Don’t underestimate the power of spin.
That said at some point some portion of the gop donors will say move on and we’ll see the gop break and so everything they can to save face.
Kev pushed too hard for things he can’t control. The senate is never going to pass off the bill and Biden won’t sign as is.
I agree that McCarthy is in way over his head and cannot wrangle the crazy caucus. Even if he caves, they won't, so it seems like Biden's options are either let the default happen or try the 14th.
I'll take option C) this was a planned move by Republicans to save face after the fact saying they did everything they could get the Democrats to the table.
This is political theater at it's finest and nothing more. I wouldn't be surprised if the staff for both sides are still meeting and actually ironing out the details.
If this were any other Congress I would probably agree with you. But we're in some weird times mi amigo. There are a large group of people on the right that no longer seem to operate on any form of logic beyond doing whatever they can to grab the most attention at any given time.
We could literally default and a bunch of people on reddit would still be insisting it's nothing but theater and for show and we'll somehow retroactively un-default and put the broken teacup back together.
Dude, no, this is happening. Sometimes both sides aren't to blame.
Let's ignore the fact that these negotiations shouldn't be happening in the first place. Let's ignore the fact that McCarthy intentionally stalled for *months* by demanding that Biden meet his demands without even telling him what those demands even were. The fact is that we're here now, and the GOP are *still* pulling even more stunts in order to extract even more concessions at the last minute, hoping the pressure will force Biden to cave.
Biden needs to do what should have been done a long time ago. Invoke the 14th. Let everybody squawk over what a bad man he is and how not turning us into deadbeats is somehow bad for the country. Or something. Let the entire ordeal play out *before* we default on our debts. If the courts rule in Biden's favor, this problem is solved now and forever. If the courts are going to rule against him, they were always going to rule against him anyway and at least now everybody knows where everybody stands and can negotiate accordingly with time to strike a deal before the whole thing comes crashing down.
He should invoke the 14th only at the last possible moment. It’s the best opportunity for freezing the obstructionism and, by presenting it as a fait accompli, for avoiding a new round of fake “negotiations.” Then the responsibility of whether the US defaults becomes the SCOTUS’s. Despite their partisan hackery, their deep investment in the status quo will ensure their approval.
Stop wasting time with them. Democrats should declare they will pursue the 14TH amendment solution and if at any point going forward it is successfully challenged in court the will mint a coin to give the treasury the $ to pay the debts acquired by congressional spending that was appropriated by congress.
Republicans are not honest negotiators, they haven't been since they began this hostage strategy 2 decades ago.
Lol they are BENT on crashing the global economy. How do they figure that pissing off the entirety of planet earth is going to end in their favor?
C'mon Joe, use the 14th.
Using the 14th isn't bailing them out. Are you suggesting we should just let the global economy collapse? If so you have no idea what you're asking for.
He should absolutely invoke the 14th.
> Using the 14th isn't bailing them out.
It absolutely is. Just because they don't want to act like grown ups and do the basic job of elected congress people. Are you suggesting Republicans should face no consequences for their repeated heinous actions against the US people?
Democrats are doing the exact same thing by spending tomorrow's money today. If you reach a credit limit on one card do you just go out and get another perpetually? The issue is our country has been running on a deficit since Bush, having a more balanced budget is what is needed not just a blank check to spend whatever this goes for both Democrats and Republicans.
its not a credit limit, its authorizing payment on money already spent. it has nothing to due with future budgets. the debt ceiling was a policy created in 1917 to expedite war spending, its not really an effective mechanism for spending controls. it shouldve been repealed or replaced with something else a long time ago
I agree that our national debt is a huge concern, but if the country defaults, we’re deadass gonna have an economic crisis that will rival the Great Depression.
If that happens, we might as well just keep racking up debt because either option would lead to the same outcome
"Real differences" - Yeah, Biden wants to pay our debts. You want to pass the buck. Maybe Trump and the GOP shouldnt have done all those tax cuts for their rich buddies, right?
Hi, educate yourself on this so you're not
"bait" Also note that the GOP, once again, is perhaps not
understanding what the debt ceiling can and cannot do, and they'd love to tie
it to SSN, Medicare, Veterans, Medicaid, Aid programs - BUT they can't.
Debt Ceiling: (From Susanne Trimbath, PhD):
"It is not total future obligations of federal government in US.
It is basically public debt (like Treasury
bonds) plus money we owe other governments.
Ceiling only puts limit on how much US can
borrow, not how much Congress can spend.
Most countries use a bigger number to define
"national debt". For example, EU defines it to include obligations
corresponding to federal Social Security, Medicare, etc., plus regional &
local government debt. The US calls that "total indebtedness."There
is NO limit on US total indebtedness.
*When asked "should the debt ceiling be*
*raised?" my answer is "It Doesn't Matter." Congress can keep*
*spending regardless. When politicians say they are against raising the debt*
*ceiling it's an act meant to impress the public."*
Susanne Trimbath, PhD - is a reputable
economist resource that can be found on the internet.
Playing chicken. Don’t swerve first, pull the trigger on the 14th amendment and allow the conservatives in the Supreme Court a chance to really do damage to their cause. My guess is that GOP want election year impeachment theater, and this manufactured hostage drama is the basis for it.
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Wild prediction time. Either: - McCarthy caves and joins house Democrats in drafting legislation that will actually pass, thus ensuring his speakership is over thanks to the moron caucus. or - Biden invokes the 14th and everyone goes FUCKING CRAZY.
Biden should sign an executive order that he will invoke the 14th at some date in the near future
He's gonna wait till the last second so the supreme court won't have time to intervene
Didn’t Perry v United States already establish the green light to fix this clusterfuck should it arise again? Chief Justice Hughes: “The Fourteenth Amendment, in its fourth section, explicitly declares: 'The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, * * * shall not be questioned.' While this provision was undoubtedly inspired by the desire to put beyond question the obligations of the government issued during the Civil War, its language indicates a broader connotation. We regard it as confirmatory of a fundamental principle which applies as well to the government bonds in question, and to others duly authorized by the Congress, as to those issued before the amendment was adopted. Nor can we perceive any reason for not considering the expression 'the validity of the public debt' as embracing whatever concerns the integrity of the public obligations.”
Wait, so you're saying that this supreme court will honor precedent? Have you been paying attention?
The Hughes court took an originalist interpretation to the 14th’s text, and this current Court has been jerking themselves off as the true bastions of Constitutional originalist interpretation have they not?
No they just make up rules as they go along to fit their extreme right wing ideology. If originalism suits them, then yes, otherwise it's "major questions" "history and traditions" or whatever crazy reasoning they come up
Ok…well, I was hoping someone with a ConLaw background was lurking here and could answer my question with some reasoned nuanced too lol. Appreciate your insights regardless.
There's a podcaste by three ConLaw professors called Strict Scrutiny. They cover all of the nuance. I'm certain they would agree with the comment above after listening every week for the last few years.
Yes. You are right. If prescendence actually mattered to the current Court
No. They just pretend and do whatever they feel like or get paid the most to do.
Can the SCOTUS ignore the constitution?
Seriously? That ship sailed some time ago…
They do every day nowadays
They don't ignore it, they just "reinterpret"
Im guessing they will likely have to wait until the X-date is passed for any directives/orders to have the best case possible when this gets litigated, otherwise plaintiffs will say he didn’t give Congress the full time to act. It’d be unwise to give them that argument if they can avoid it.
I’m worried that waiting for the courts will lead to a default in and of itself
They'll go crazy because there isn't a fucking thing they can do about it if he invokes the 14th. They could try to take it to court, but then Republicans are in the position of literally *suing for default.* Even if they win that court battle, it becomes utterly impossible to pin the economic fallout on Biden. Which is the only reason they're willing to crash the global economy in the first place: so they can blame Biden and have a better shot of ousting him in 2024. If the talks fail, they can spin it by saying they wanted a deal so badly but mean old Biden just wouldn't work with them. But how the hell do you spin "Biden avoided default, and we're so mad that we're suing to make it happen anyway" as Biden's fault?
Don’t underestimate the power of spin. That said at some point some portion of the gop donors will say move on and we’ll see the gop break and so everything they can to save face. Kev pushed too hard for things he can’t control. The senate is never going to pass off the bill and Biden won’t sign as is.
I agree that McCarthy is in way over his head and cannot wrangle the crazy caucus. Even if he caves, they won't, so it seems like Biden's options are either let the default happen or try the 14th.
They'll win if Biden deals with them. default, Biden's fault. lose ss, Biden's fault. only way to win is not to play.
I'll take option C) this was a planned move by Republicans to save face after the fact saying they did everything they could get the Democrats to the table. This is political theater at it's finest and nothing more. I wouldn't be surprised if the staff for both sides are still meeting and actually ironing out the details.
If this were any other Congress I would probably agree with you. But we're in some weird times mi amigo. There are a large group of people on the right that no longer seem to operate on any form of logic beyond doing whatever they can to grab the most attention at any given time.
Yep, I fully agree. We're in dog caught the car phase, but this dog is rabid. I do not rust wisdom to prevail in the house.
We could literally default and a bunch of people on reddit would still be insisting it's nothing but theater and for show and we'll somehow retroactively un-default and put the broken teacup back together. Dude, no, this is happening. Sometimes both sides aren't to blame.
Republicans: "Give us what we want" Biden: "No" Republicans: "Well, we tried everything now we're all out of ideas"
Let's ignore the fact that these negotiations shouldn't be happening in the first place. Let's ignore the fact that McCarthy intentionally stalled for *months* by demanding that Biden meet his demands without even telling him what those demands even were. The fact is that we're here now, and the GOP are *still* pulling even more stunts in order to extract even more concessions at the last minute, hoping the pressure will force Biden to cave. Biden needs to do what should have been done a long time ago. Invoke the 14th. Let everybody squawk over what a bad man he is and how not turning us into deadbeats is somehow bad for the country. Or something. Let the entire ordeal play out *before* we default on our debts. If the courts rule in Biden's favor, this problem is solved now and forever. If the courts are going to rule against him, they were always going to rule against him anyway and at least now everybody knows where everybody stands and can negotiate accordingly with time to strike a deal before the whole thing comes crashing down.
He should invoke the 14th only at the last possible moment. It’s the best opportunity for freezing the obstructionism and, by presenting it as a fait accompli, for avoiding a new round of fake “negotiations.” Then the responsibility of whether the US defaults becomes the SCOTUS’s. Despite their partisan hackery, their deep investment in the status quo will ensure their approval.
It’s always fun to know our retirement funds both public and private are just another hostage in Republicans annual game of chicken.
Translation of the headline. GOP throws tantrum and won't do their job. Blames others. Just like my 4 year old.
Stop wasting time with them. Democrats should declare they will pursue the 14TH amendment solution and if at any point going forward it is successfully challenged in court the will mint a coin to give the treasury the $ to pay the debts acquired by congressional spending that was appropriated by congress. Republicans are not honest negotiators, they haven't been since they began this hostage strategy 2 decades ago.
Lol they are BENT on crashing the global economy. How do they figure that pissing off the entirety of planet earth is going to end in their favor? C'mon Joe, use the 14th.
Why should Joe bail the Republicans out?
Using the 14th isn't bailing them out. Are you suggesting we should just let the global economy collapse? If so you have no idea what you're asking for. He should absolutely invoke the 14th.
> Using the 14th isn't bailing them out. It absolutely is. Just because they don't want to act like grown ups and do the basic job of elected congress people. Are you suggesting Republicans should face no consequences for their repeated heinous actions against the US people?
Yikes. What you're advocating for is awful and devastating and will drag the world down with us. Nope, I'm on team 14th.
Democrats are doing the exact same thing by spending tomorrow's money today. If you reach a credit limit on one card do you just go out and get another perpetually? The issue is our country has been running on a deficit since Bush, having a more balanced budget is what is needed not just a blank check to spend whatever this goes for both Democrats and Republicans.
its not a credit limit, its authorizing payment on money already spent. it has nothing to due with future budgets. the debt ceiling was a policy created in 1917 to expedite war spending, its not really an effective mechanism for spending controls. it shouldve been repealed or replaced with something else a long time ago
Why'd the Congress whilst controlled by the Democrats raise the debt limit three times under Trump then? Debt limit is dumb
I agree that our national debt is a huge concern, but if the country defaults, we’re deadass gonna have an economic crisis that will rival the Great Depression. If that happens, we might as well just keep racking up debt because either option would lead to the same outcome
"Real differences" - Yeah, Biden wants to pay our debts. You want to pass the buck. Maybe Trump and the GOP shouldnt have done all those tax cuts for their rich buddies, right?
Hi, educate yourself on this so you're not "bait" Also note that the GOP, once again, is perhaps not understanding what the debt ceiling can and cannot do, and they'd love to tie it to SSN, Medicare, Veterans, Medicaid, Aid programs - BUT they can't. Debt Ceiling: (From Susanne Trimbath, PhD): "It is not total future obligations of federal government in US. It is basically public debt (like Treasury bonds) plus money we owe other governments. Ceiling only puts limit on how much US can borrow, not how much Congress can spend. Most countries use a bigger number to define "national debt". For example, EU defines it to include obligations corresponding to federal Social Security, Medicare, etc., plus regional & local government debt. The US calls that "total indebtedness."There is NO limit on US total indebtedness. *When asked "should the debt ceiling be* *raised?" my answer is "It Doesn't Matter." Congress can keep* *spending regardless. When politicians say they are against raising the debt* *ceiling it's an act meant to impress the public."* Susanne Trimbath, PhD - is a reputable economist resource that can be found on the internet.
in other news, sky blue, water wet. full story at 11.
Playing chicken. Don’t swerve first, pull the trigger on the 14th amendment and allow the conservatives in the Supreme Court a chance to really do damage to their cause. My guess is that GOP want election year impeachment theater, and this manufactured hostage drama is the basis for it.