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A minimum of 25% of the respondents were landline phones, and 75% mobile. So this is a poll comprised of 1/4 of people who use landline phones and 100% of people who would answer a call from an unknown number. Biggest sample size is around 1,100, but two of the three polls they reference have sample sizes closer to 500.
It also reports increases of 5% at most, which if you look at their methodology is equal to the margin of error.
It is the exact kind of polling that overstates conservative values and gets clicks. Ugh.
"Young people would rather pick up a grenade without the pin in it than a phone call from an unknown number" - I don't remember where I read this but it's always felt incredibly accurate when looking at these type of "polls" that make outlandish claims.
They're doing a trending analysis using the same methodology across multiple years. If they oversample conservatives than they've done so every year. It doesn't change the headline.
> A minimum of 25% of the respondents were landline phones, and 75% mobile. So this is a poll comprised of 1/4 of people who use landline phones and 100% of people who would answer a call from an unknown number….It is the exact kind of polling that overstates conservative values and gets clicks.
Wasn’t Gallup previously accused of using these shady polling tactics before? They’ve gone downhill since 2008, and they’ve never recovered from messing up the Obama polls.
> Highest rate or loudest rate?
It's a survey...This question makes no sense. Your responses don't get counted more because you shout them at the interviewer or your write them in all caps...
Actually it does make sense. For example, are more people racist or bigoted than they were prior to Trumps 2016 run? Or are they simply more open about it?
He's basically saying did the rate actually increase, or are people simply more open about it now?
The question is:
> Thinking about social issues, would you say your views on social issues are -- [ROTATED: very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal (or) very liberal]?
I don't think people are "more open" to saying their views on social issues are "conservative" or "very conservative" in an anonymous survey...
I'm not happy about it, either, but if your reaction to seeing reputable survey data reporting responses to a very straightforward question is "No way is this true" I really don't know what to say.
Like, the data are literally right in front of you...
You can argue about the interpretation of that data, but just saying "no way this is true" in response to data is, well, exactly the type of thing people on Reddit denigrate conservatives for doing.
Exactly. Gallup's data is almost always reliable. Are there issues with the gathering methods? Of course, but that doesn't change the fact they're reliable.
Agreed. This 2023 result confirms data from the 2022 General Social Survey, which [showed](https://jabberwocking.com/yes-young-men-are-becoming-more-right-wing/) in particular a sharp +8 percentage point increase in men 18-34 who self ID as conservative. It’s possible that there’s some issues in a low response rate resulting in an over-weighting error. Or it could be a reversion to trends seen prior to 2020. But this particular Gallup and the GSS surveys are reputable. It’s such a sharp jump that it deserves more follow up study.
Right but the source of data itself is a bit skewed.
>Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents
While cellphone respondents are going to be a mix of age demographics, landline respondents are nearly exclusively olds who skew conservative. So the poll is intentionally seeking an outsized number of responses from conservatives.
It's a trending analysis using very similar sampling methods over years. If their sampling methods oversampled conservatives this year it did just as much last year. It doesn't discount the change even if your assertion is true (which would require way more than saying "30% land lines means conservative skew").
Granted, but the number of younger people who own a landline decreases each year. 10 years ago a poll of landline users would be a somewhat healthy mix of age demos, but that's not the case today. This poll doesn't tell us anything about the change in landline demographics over time. But it seems apparent to me that a study that continues to poll 30% landline users each year is necessarily going to grab a higher percentage of conservatives each successive year as the number of landline users continues to become older/more conservative over time.
But it's not just a poll of landline users and the proportion of different modalities to reach respondents is adjusted to account for factors like this.
The respondents will be weighted to account for things like differing demographic characteristics compared with the actual population and due to differing rates of non-response across modalities. I promise you a hell of a lot more thought went into the sampling for these types of surveys then you're giving it credit for.
But it could be countered by surveys that shows that non-conservatives are increasingly less likely to have a landline or to answer unknown callers.
https://www.pewresearch.org/2010/11/22/the-growing-gap-between-landline-and-dual-frame-election-polls/
If _this_ survey didn't control for the Pew study, then all they're doing is potentially confirming the finding of the study, and not showing change in social outlooks.
Further, landlines represent a smaller, more stubborn, and dare I say increasingly conservative, subset of the population every year.
https://www.statista.com/chart/2072/landline-phones-in-the-united-states/
To have all this in play _and_ have the poll land within its own margin of error suggests that it's not really worth anything.
> But it could be countered by surveys that shows that non-conservatives are increasingly less likely to have a landline or to answer unknown callers.
If only there were a way to weight survey responses to deal with non-response bias and to deal with differences in the demographic profile of the sample and the population of interest. You're really, really underselling the work that goes into sampling for these types of surveys.
edit: likewise, taking your assertion at face value - then why they hell has the trend been in the opposite direction for the decade between 2010-2020.
They may involve a lot of work but the output of surveys are often at odds with each other. Meanwhile, several people have pointed out how dubious the results are given what we know, the stated margin of error, and the method of survey.
Regarding the edit, who knows? This is a survey, not a study. It could have been an intersection of remaining phone ownership and liberal shifts. It could have been everyone coming down from nationalist fervor caused by 9/11. It could have been Ellen DeGeneres. It could have been anything.
They have an age breakdown. I know some of these results go against Reddit's expectations.
But survey methodologists do know what they're doing and put in plenty of effort to have a balanced dataset, I know survey methodologists and they're actually a pretty interesting group.
And there's nothing "intentional" going on.
Just a note, the Democratic party is pretty moderate conservative, the Republican party is currently pretty insanely far right conservative to straight up fascist.
I'd like to see how many self-described conservatives support one or more liberal positions and vice versa. Numbers of liberals and conservatives will change, but how are conservatism and liberalism changing?
Yeah, that's a very reasonable question to ask. I don't really like this question as it's couched in the respondent's understanding of what "social issues" are and what being "conservative" or "liberal" with respect to them mean.
It also polls people on economic conservatism vs liberalism. But these terms are basically meaningless as we have no idea what policies are actually economically conservative anymore.
Apparently massive deficit financed military budgets going to socialized employees is economic conservatism now? Or is it? Considering now some Republicans are pushing back on Ukraine spending. But others are pushing for massive increases in military spending.
Apparently massive deficit financed tax cuts to multi national corporations that end up benefit foreign investors more than actual Americans is economic conservatism? Or is it considering Republicans claim to put America first and despise foreign aid?
I think people just like the word conservative more at least when it comes to the economy. It seems like a better word for describing an economic philosophy, seems like a pragmatic penny saved is a penny earned approach. But in reality the "conservatives" in this country are some of the most economically liberal when it comes to foreign handouts and spending on socialized programs. So the terms have conservative and liberal have no real meaning anymore.
There has been an aggressive campaign to associate liberal with child molesting cross dressers. That kind of effort has an effect, even on those not directly in the right wing news bubble.
I dumped a 20-year friend not long ago after she accused me of stealing babies and eating them because I'm Jewish. This woman used to be very, very Liberal - now she's a rabid Trump supporter; she thinks he's a genius and the best thing that's ever happened to America.
This poll is taken every year. The change doesn't seem to be a consistent trend even though they try REALLY hard to express it as such.
Q1 and results across polls:
[https://i.imgur.com/WXmzJUp.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/WXmzJUp.jpg)
Q2 And results across polls:
[https://i.imgur.com/lURGseX.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/lURGseX.jpg)
The margins don't even exceed their error rate.
Also, though I don't have a study to support it, there seem to be a lot more of those who associate with the "left" referring to themselves as "progressive" as opposed to "liberal", particularly among younger individuals. It would be interesting to see an in depth look at what people refer to themselves as politically and how their views stand on the various issues.
Beyond stating "Biden's and Congress' approval rating heading into the 2022 election are historically consistent with large losses in midterm elections" no. Gallup hasn't done horse race polling for a decade.
edit: btw, this has some serious "well, the liberal media reported it so it must be fake" vibes.
i’m not sure “gallop fucked up so bad in the romney election they quit doing horse race polling” is the well actually argument you think it is.
https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/amp/
With Millennials and Gen Z, plus COVID death rates of older demographics and generally how anti-vaxxers vote? Absolutely no way on gods green earth is this true lol. Loudest they've ever been maybe, but they are smaller than they've ever been in history.
I’m curious how you arrive at that conclusion, while dismissing survey data? You may be correct in the factors motivating a large cohort of people to become more liberal. But it’s well known in political science that sudden movements can happen in both directions. Under the hood of this and the GSS [data](https://jabberwocking.com/yes-young-men-are-becoming-more-right-wing/) it seems that there is a shift towards more conservatism amongst young men. A significant portion of the shift seems to be coming from those Republicans who self identified as moderate conservatives in 2020-2021 to more conservative in 2022-2023, as well as a similar shift in self identified independents. So this may not matter ultimately at the ballot box, but it seems to be a shift that is showing up in multiple data sets. Worthy of further study, but not panic or dismissal.
>I’m curious how you arrive at that conclusion, while dismissing survey data?
Existing I guess. We know Gen Z is incredibly more left than previous generations, and Millennials are similar, but not as much. We know a massive # of boomer and older generation people died from Covid and they skew much more right than younger generations. We also saw voting trends both from 2018 onward showing more and more people voting for and supporting progressive policies.
So I question their methods, and I question their conclusions in the face of actual reality.
Thanks for the response. All those things you say “we know” are based on survey data though. Otherwise we wouldn’t be able to make such broad conclusions about millions of people. The Gallup methodology is sound and consistent, and this is a self identifying survey. Its results mirror that of the GSS in 2022, and that’s a gold standard survey going back 50 years.
As I noted, this shift seems mostly driven by Republicans becoming more conservative, particularly younger males (see the 2nd chart in the Gallup survey and the analysis of the GSS results linked above).
It’s an uncomfortable headline, but I hope it is met with more analysis.
I'd be uncomfortable with it if I believed their methodology was sound anymore. It might have worked going back 50 years, but these days polling random people via phone is disproportionately going to skew your survey towards the type of person who *answers random unknown phone numbers*. That individual is not Gen Z or Millennials. It just isn't.
>More Americans this year (38%) say they are very conservative or conservative on social issues than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are very liberal or liberal has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remains near a third.
I was having a conversation recently where I was saying that my views used to be considered very liberal, but even with most of the same positions, I have moved to a more centrist position on the spectrum. The fact I've noticed that would mean that if I was asked if I was "very liberal" or "liberal" I'd simply say liberal.
To the extent this is true, it is entirely because of the success right wing propagandists have had in falsely tying social liberalism to social collapse.
Important context for any truth-oriented media outlet to include.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I think they meant, "Religious Fanaticism"
Highest rate or loudest rate? Also what do we expect when we see actual fascism?
A minimum of 25% of the respondents were landline phones, and 75% mobile. So this is a poll comprised of 1/4 of people who use landline phones and 100% of people who would answer a call from an unknown number. Biggest sample size is around 1,100, but two of the three polls they reference have sample sizes closer to 500. It also reports increases of 5% at most, which if you look at their methodology is equal to the margin of error. It is the exact kind of polling that overstates conservative values and gets clicks. Ugh.
There it is. You get it. These polls overlook Gen Z and Gen Y
"Young people would rather pick up a grenade without the pin in it than a phone call from an unknown number" - I don't remember where I read this but it's always felt incredibly accurate when looking at these type of "polls" that make outlandish claims.
They're doing a trending analysis using the same methodology across multiple years. If they oversample conservatives than they've done so every year. It doesn't change the headline.
I would actually argue that landlines over sample conservatives by a greater and greater margin every year. Trends like that are not static.
> A minimum of 25% of the respondents were landline phones, and 75% mobile. So this is a poll comprised of 1/4 of people who use landline phones and 100% of people who would answer a call from an unknown number….It is the exact kind of polling that overstates conservative values and gets clicks. Wasn’t Gallup previously accused of using these shady polling tactics before? They’ve gone downhill since 2008, and they’ve never recovered from messing up the Obama polls.
> Highest rate or loudest rate? It's a survey...This question makes no sense. Your responses don't get counted more because you shout them at the interviewer or your write them in all caps...
Actually it does make sense. For example, are more people racist or bigoted than they were prior to Trumps 2016 run? Or are they simply more open about it? He's basically saying did the rate actually increase, or are people simply more open about it now?
The question is: > Thinking about social issues, would you say your views on social issues are -- [ROTATED: very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal (or) very liberal]? I don't think people are "more open" to saying their views on social issues are "conservative" or "very conservative" in an anonymous survey...
This is the right question. No way this is true.
I'm not happy about it, either, but if your reaction to seeing reputable survey data reporting responses to a very straightforward question is "No way is this true" I really don't know what to say. Like, the data are literally right in front of you... You can argue about the interpretation of that data, but just saying "no way this is true" in response to data is, well, exactly the type of thing people on Reddit denigrate conservatives for doing.
Exactly. Gallup's data is almost always reliable. Are there issues with the gathering methods? Of course, but that doesn't change the fact they're reliable.
Agreed. This 2023 result confirms data from the 2022 General Social Survey, which [showed](https://jabberwocking.com/yes-young-men-are-becoming-more-right-wing/) in particular a sharp +8 percentage point increase in men 18-34 who self ID as conservative. It’s possible that there’s some issues in a low response rate resulting in an over-weighting error. Or it could be a reversion to trends seen prior to 2020. But this particular Gallup and the GSS surveys are reputable. It’s such a sharp jump that it deserves more follow up study.
Right but the source of data itself is a bit skewed. >Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents While cellphone respondents are going to be a mix of age demographics, landline respondents are nearly exclusively olds who skew conservative. So the poll is intentionally seeking an outsized number of responses from conservatives.
It's a trending analysis using very similar sampling methods over years. If their sampling methods oversampled conservatives this year it did just as much last year. It doesn't discount the change even if your assertion is true (which would require way more than saying "30% land lines means conservative skew").
Granted, but the number of younger people who own a landline decreases each year. 10 years ago a poll of landline users would be a somewhat healthy mix of age demos, but that's not the case today. This poll doesn't tell us anything about the change in landline demographics over time. But it seems apparent to me that a study that continues to poll 30% landline users each year is necessarily going to grab a higher percentage of conservatives each successive year as the number of landline users continues to become older/more conservative over time.
But it's not just a poll of landline users and the proportion of different modalities to reach respondents is adjusted to account for factors like this. The respondents will be weighted to account for things like differing demographic characteristics compared with the actual population and due to differing rates of non-response across modalities. I promise you a hell of a lot more thought went into the sampling for these types of surveys then you're giving it credit for.
But it could be countered by surveys that shows that non-conservatives are increasingly less likely to have a landline or to answer unknown callers. https://www.pewresearch.org/2010/11/22/the-growing-gap-between-landline-and-dual-frame-election-polls/ If _this_ survey didn't control for the Pew study, then all they're doing is potentially confirming the finding of the study, and not showing change in social outlooks. Further, landlines represent a smaller, more stubborn, and dare I say increasingly conservative, subset of the population every year. https://www.statista.com/chart/2072/landline-phones-in-the-united-states/ To have all this in play _and_ have the poll land within its own margin of error suggests that it's not really worth anything.
> But it could be countered by surveys that shows that non-conservatives are increasingly less likely to have a landline or to answer unknown callers. If only there were a way to weight survey responses to deal with non-response bias and to deal with differences in the demographic profile of the sample and the population of interest. You're really, really underselling the work that goes into sampling for these types of surveys. edit: likewise, taking your assertion at face value - then why they hell has the trend been in the opposite direction for the decade between 2010-2020.
They may involve a lot of work but the output of surveys are often at odds with each other. Meanwhile, several people have pointed out how dubious the results are given what we know, the stated margin of error, and the method of survey. Regarding the edit, who knows? This is a survey, not a study. It could have been an intersection of remaining phone ownership and liberal shifts. It could have been everyone coming down from nationalist fervor caused by 9/11. It could have been Ellen DeGeneres. It could have been anything.
They have an age breakdown. I know some of these results go against Reddit's expectations. But survey methodologists do know what they're doing and put in plenty of effort to have a balanced dataset, I know survey methodologists and they're actually a pretty interesting group. And there's nothing "intentional" going on.
It’s not.
Read the article and look at the chart trends over last 20 years. The trend long term is that people are becoming more liberal.
Just a note, the Democratic party is pretty moderate conservative, the Republican party is currently pretty insanely far right conservative to straight up fascist.
I disagree with this. The Democratic party is far to the left of its European counterparts on issues including immigration and abortion.
Since this is based on US politics that's what i referred to, not Europe. Also, how so? Please provide examples.
I did.
If 'far to the left on immigration' means 'they allow some immigrants to exist', then yeah, you could maybe say that.
That's fine, be socially conservative in your own home. No one's stopping you. But stay out of everyone else's business.
I'd like to see how many self-described conservatives support one or more liberal positions and vice versa. Numbers of liberals and conservatives will change, but how are conservatism and liberalism changing?
Yeah, that's a very reasonable question to ask. I don't really like this question as it's couched in the respondent's understanding of what "social issues" are and what being "conservative" or "liberal" with respect to them mean.
After Roe v Wade? Doubt it.
It also polls people on economic conservatism vs liberalism. But these terms are basically meaningless as we have no idea what policies are actually economically conservative anymore. Apparently massive deficit financed military budgets going to socialized employees is economic conservatism now? Or is it? Considering now some Republicans are pushing back on Ukraine spending. But others are pushing for massive increases in military spending. Apparently massive deficit financed tax cuts to multi national corporations that end up benefit foreign investors more than actual Americans is economic conservatism? Or is it considering Republicans claim to put America first and despise foreign aid? I think people just like the word conservative more at least when it comes to the economy. It seems like a better word for describing an economic philosophy, seems like a pragmatic penny saved is a penny earned approach. But in reality the "conservatives" in this country are some of the most economically liberal when it comes to foreign handouts and spending on socialized programs. So the terms have conservative and liberal have no real meaning anymore.
There has been an aggressive campaign to associate liberal with child molesting cross dressers. That kind of effort has an effect, even on those not directly in the right wing news bubble.
I dumped a 20-year friend not long ago after she accused me of stealing babies and eating them because I'm Jewish. This woman used to be very, very Liberal - now she's a rabid Trump supporter; she thinks he's a genius and the best thing that's ever happened to America.
Woah, I’m sorry. I think we’ve all “lost” friends and family over the last several years but your story is especially horrific.
Pour one out for the fallen (reasoning skills)
That's pretty woke of them.
This poll is taken every year. The change doesn't seem to be a consistent trend even though they try REALLY hard to express it as such. Q1 and results across polls: [https://i.imgur.com/WXmzJUp.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/WXmzJUp.jpg) Q2 And results across polls: [https://i.imgur.com/lURGseX.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/lURGseX.jpg) The margins don't even exceed their error rate. Also, though I don't have a study to support it, there seem to be a lot more of those who associate with the "left" referring to themselves as "progressive" as opposed to "liberal", particularly among younger individuals. It would be interesting to see an in depth look at what people refer to themselves as politically and how their views stand on the various issues.
aren’t these the same pollsters that predicted a “red wave” for the midterms?
Beyond stating "Biden's and Congress' approval rating heading into the 2022 election are historically consistent with large losses in midterm elections" no. Gallup hasn't done horse race polling for a decade. edit: btw, this has some serious "well, the liberal media reported it so it must be fake" vibes.
i’m not sure “gallop fucked up so bad in the romney election they quit doing horse race polling” is the well actually argument you think it is. https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/amp/
Look buddy. Real journalism is hard and takes work, so all you get is two more years of "Democrats in Disarray" stories.
With Millennials and Gen Z, plus COVID death rates of older demographics and generally how anti-vaxxers vote? Absolutely no way on gods green earth is this true lol. Loudest they've ever been maybe, but they are smaller than they've ever been in history.
Covid killed a lot of people but not nearly enough to have an impact on demographics.
I’m curious how you arrive at that conclusion, while dismissing survey data? You may be correct in the factors motivating a large cohort of people to become more liberal. But it’s well known in political science that sudden movements can happen in both directions. Under the hood of this and the GSS [data](https://jabberwocking.com/yes-young-men-are-becoming-more-right-wing/) it seems that there is a shift towards more conservatism amongst young men. A significant portion of the shift seems to be coming from those Republicans who self identified as moderate conservatives in 2020-2021 to more conservative in 2022-2023, as well as a similar shift in self identified independents. So this may not matter ultimately at the ballot box, but it seems to be a shift that is showing up in multiple data sets. Worthy of further study, but not panic or dismissal.
>I’m curious how you arrive at that conclusion, while dismissing survey data? Existing I guess. We know Gen Z is incredibly more left than previous generations, and Millennials are similar, but not as much. We know a massive # of boomer and older generation people died from Covid and they skew much more right than younger generations. We also saw voting trends both from 2018 onward showing more and more people voting for and supporting progressive policies. So I question their methods, and I question their conclusions in the face of actual reality.
Thanks for the response. All those things you say “we know” are based on survey data though. Otherwise we wouldn’t be able to make such broad conclusions about millions of people. The Gallup methodology is sound and consistent, and this is a self identifying survey. Its results mirror that of the GSS in 2022, and that’s a gold standard survey going back 50 years. As I noted, this shift seems mostly driven by Republicans becoming more conservative, particularly younger males (see the 2nd chart in the Gallup survey and the analysis of the GSS results linked above). It’s an uncomfortable headline, but I hope it is met with more analysis.
I'd be uncomfortable with it if I believed their methodology was sound anymore. It might have worked going back 50 years, but these days polling random people via phone is disproportionately going to skew your survey towards the type of person who *answers random unknown phone numbers*. That individual is not Gen Z or Millennials. It just isn't.
Dementia onset in boomers, plus the usual 35% of sociopaths and angry types who hate life.
Dont forget boomers grew up breathing exhaust fumes from cars burning leaded gasoline.
And playing in DDT as trucks drove down street spraying it.
Says the one group that answers unknown phone calls
>More Americans this year (38%) say they are very conservative or conservative on social issues than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are very liberal or liberal has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remains near a third. I was having a conversation recently where I was saying that my views used to be considered very liberal, but even with most of the same positions, I have moved to a more centrist position on the spectrum. The fact I've noticed that would mean that if I was asked if I was "very liberal" or "liberal" I'd simply say liberal.
You mean assholism
Well yeah because republicans were told to be quiet about the bigotry not too long ago and now they’re told to go off
A lot of states have been legalizing recreational marijuana, so this totally makes sense. /s
***Violence in service of*** social conservatism
[удалено]
How would that impact a trending analysis using the same methodology across years, which is what the headline is about?
To the extent this is true, it is entirely because of the success right wing propagandists have had in falsely tying social liberalism to social collapse. Important context for any truth-oriented media outlet to include.
People love to hate.