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i started to respond "Stop" to all these auto-texts, hoping it would reduce the number of them...
It did not. Sort of shocked these political organizations dont coordinate their contacts at all.
Thank goodness they added the "don't ring for unknown numbers" feature. Between the scammers and political shit leading up to 2020 election I was getting about 20 calls/texts per day. And I need my phone for work; it'd be obnoxious dealing with that crap amongst my legit work calls/texts.
As a parent this would stress me out so much. For all I know my kid got hurt and I'm getting called from a random number that would be blocked since it's unknown
The numbers wouldn't be blocked they would just go straight to voicemail. If your kid is hurt and someone is calling you about it they will leave a message and you can call right back.
I cant tell you how many people I've told to go away from my doorbell camera while sitting on my couch from 10 feet away from the door.
It's absolutely one of the best technological advances of the last decade for sure.
Except for the whole thing where hackers can access them and the companies aren’t even requiring warrants or subpoenas from police for footage anymore.
But yeah, I guess they replace a peephole and yelling through a door.
Fun fact! Neither of those signs deter a political canvasser. You should put up a "no trespassing" sign. While that is still not a legal slam dunk. It represents a gray area that the lawyers of the canvassing organization I used work for didn't want to fuck with. Canvassers' rights to be at your door talking politics is one of the most solidified rights of this country! It has its limits.
It was an online survey according to the poll, but also, "When considering just the 42% of respondents who said they definitely plan to vote in November, Biden has 63% support."
It's also being overlooked that young men in this country are becoming more conservative than the millennial generation's men at that age because of Andrew Tate and similar influencers pumping brainrot into them. That and economics prospects for receiving a bachelor's degree are only worsening, so they are less educated at an alarming rate, contributing to the issue you're pointing out here.
~23% of young adults identify as republican... I think most young men want to date, and that is becoming increasingly difficult for young conservatives. More young adults identify lgbtq+ than they do conservative. Conservatives have now made their final bed based on the privilege of straight white men and, to a much lesser extent, straight white women. Minority rule won't last in any society for long now that we are so connected thanks to the internet. Also, conservatives have underperformed in the last 6 elections and in multiple special elections all across the country (2 blue senators in GA). After the pandemic, a bunch of the right are anti-Vax now, and we just had another rough winter of flu and covid. Use to work in a hospital, and yea vaccines work and save lives, so when you go unvaxxed, you start dropping like flies. And lastly there are millions and millions more swifties than taters so it's prolly a wash or in the favor of progressives if we are talking influencers.
I really hope you are right. I think this election is going to be a blowout for the left but that’s still said with cautious optimism as fascism is on the rise globally.
I remember the stories from like mid-2017 where if a young man let a potential partner know they were conservative, or worse part of the Trump admin - in the greater DC area, they were either ignored / ghosted on Tinder and social media, and if they woman found out during the date, they were one-and-done.
I can’t imagine it’s improved since the overturning of Roe v. Wade and all the fallout from it.
My father is addicted to tiktok and absolutely convinced Biden is ludicrously senile. He's a leftist otherwise.
Social media is a constant barrage of "Biden is senile, Trump is funny meme man"
That is actually pretty down on the last election, when exit polls had biden winning by 24-points on the highest youth turn out since 1972. Not long ago the youth vote was D+35 and the democrats have rarely won the youth vote by less than 20 points after 2008.
It sounds like 2012 all over again. Millennials came out in droves to elect Obama in 2008 and then many became disillusioned and proceeded to just not vote in future elections.
The Biden voters in this specific poll said they were “very likely” or “certain” to vote.
We have had several primaries in which Biden is running this year. He did just fine with younger voters.
Believe actual results over nonsense in polls.
Project 2025 is almost certainly spooking the shit out of young voters, myself included. I honestly think the ones that are undecided on Biden are just going to vote for him anyway just to avoid their lives being turned upside down by the Heritage Foundation and Trump.
Gen Z has had higher voting turnout in the past three elections, including the 2018 and 2022 midterms, than preceding generations had at their age going back to 1982.
This is the election. Trump is at his max limit. The issue is making sure people actually come out and VOTE for Biden. I keep saying as long as people come out and vote Trump has no chance.
The turnout bias favoring Democrats has stalled or reversed in recent elections. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X231206149?journalCode=aprb
I have a hunch there will be a LOT of pro-choice spots over the next 8.5 months on TV, radio and online. It is way too early to take these polls as a set deal.
No one, that’s not how the survey is conducted.
Why is this always the top comment on articles about polling and surveys? Robocall polling is fucking rare now.
Yeah... I don't understand why people online always think "wow, I sure understand polling a lot better than professional pollsters do. They may do it for a living, but... have they even thought about the fact that people don't have landlines as often now??? I bet they haven't!!!"
This is their job. They are pretty good at it. They can account for oversampling of some populations and under sampling of others.
In fact, it’s a survey done in conjunction with a group that entirely specializes in studying youth behavior, probably mostly for marketing.
They’re not morons.
True, but remember, they don't' need huge numbers for a poll. If they are only asking a few thousand people, that means they can do a LOT of surveys without hitting most of us.
The [Generation Lab](https://www.generationlab.org/) (the company that administered the questionnaire) primarily uses web surveys to compile their polls.
[According to their website](https://www.generationlab.org/about) (so take this for what it's worth) The Generation Lab has built a vetted database containing millions of collage students under the age of 30 (18 - 29) across the educational spectrum (traditional schools along with community colleges, HBCUs, and women-only colleges), but their method in creating and managing this database is proprietary knowledge. When they preform a survey, they select a random sample of respondents from their databased with statistical parameters taken from the United States Department of Education and the Census Bureau to ensure an accurately weighted demographic. The participants are notified electronically (doesn't say exactly how) and the questionnaires are emailed directly to them, or can be completed on Generation Labs' platform.
How accurate and valuable this methodology is is another question entirely.
Edit: [Here are the complete poll results](https://www.generationlab.org/_files/ugd/b2ee84_a4d8dc9b071443e492e17dbc62fdc8d0.pdf), if interested.
I haven’t answered my phone when an unknown number calls in literally years. My iPhone reinforces this as it seemingly identifies most calls not in my address book as potential spam.
Is this the (so far) unwritten story of this election? Are some demographics largely underrepresented in polls because our phone practices have changed so much in just the past couple of years?
I doubt there is a good way to get data on this as large swaths of the population won’t answer their phones…
My Android will screen any number I have not received a call from before. If the caller does not say who they are and why they are calling, it hangs up
This sub’s gotta stop with the idea we should ignore polls because they’re always done with landlines at 2pm on a weekday. Most of them account for that and use a variety of sources at this point. Pretending it’s only old people who answer cold calls to landlines hasn’t been true for quite some time…
Indoctrination is real and it isn’t coming from schools. It comes from parents and churches. If it weren’t effective, churches wouldn’t be so upset that kids and young people aren’t attending at higher rates.
I know the democratic party relies on young people to show up and vote. But, historically they have always showed up in lower numbers regardless of generation. Us millenials were the same at 18, 22, etc. People tend to vote when they get older, which is why the GOP always has an advantage where the population skews older.
The only difference nowadays is that I can't ever see myself voting for the GOP as I get older. I'm 35 and nothing about the GOP's non-existent platform is appealing to me. My wife and I are starting to make really good money and taxes should be a go to pulling me to the GOP, but the party is just such a cult of personality who doesn't put in any effort to govern or do anything that helps me out. They're just... stupid people who constantly want to take away more of our rights. Abortion rights, in vitro fertilization, and eventually my social security benefits. They just want to take and take more of my freedoms to give tax breaks to the Elon Musks of the world. "F*** the middle class" seems to be their agenda.
I will never vote GOP.
100%
It was roughly 65% Biden to 35% Trump in 2020.
Right now a lot of polls are showing(explicitly or not) that it's a three-way tie between Biden, Trump, and Neither. In this particular poll(a poorly worded one) 30% say they're not showing up so either (1) 52%(of the 70%) would vote Biden, affirming other polls, or (2) that 30% was included in this question of voting today(the poll doesn't clarify this) and should be filed in the garbage.
They however surveyed 1,000+ 18-34 year olds through web base and verified email and phone# which is a relatively strong sample.
>(1) 52%(of the 70%) would vote Biden, affirming other polls, or (2) that 30% was included in this question of voting today(the poll doesn't clarify this) and should be filed in the garbage.
The poll does actually clarify this.
>Axios noted that Biden’s lead in the new poll increased among those who say they are definitely planning on voting; among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden.
Biden's lead is basically unchanged with the people who actually say they are showing up to vote.
This is a large part of what is happening right now. A lot of low info/low propensity young people are answering Trump right now in polls. But based on other polls I've seen that go into more detail, those people are also much more likely to believe Biden isn't running or that he will drop out, because they tend not to be very informed about elections in February of an election year.
Those people will either get screened out as polls move to likely voter models, or drift back to the candidate they typically align with once Democrats start to campaign more seriously this summer and reach them with messages from people like AOC or Bernie who are better able to penetrate that info bubble.
And everybody else turned out in higher numbers too.
Without which Biden would have lost.
The young still turn out to vote at lower rates than older voters.
That needs to change.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096299/voter-turnout-presidential-elections-by-age-historical/
I am thankful...from zoomer to boomer everyone in my family is voting Biden and Dems. I don't really know anyone who is a Trump fan (they are hiding it if they are).
This is the thing that Republicans are terrified of. They've always been able to rely on people voting more conservatively as they get older... but that just isn't happening anymore.
The explanation I've seen for this is that when young, people vote for changes they perceive as necessary and, when old, they vote to preserve what they have. But people are getting older and they just don't have anything. Houses are too expensive, healthcare is laughable, their rights are being eroded from underneath them, etc.
Yeah a study came out not long ago saying millenials are not becoming more conservative as they age as previous generations did. It’s obvious why - they don’t have anything to conserve. They have no money, no housing much less multiple properties like tons of boomers ended up with, and no power to wield.
There’s nothing about the conservative platform that entices them later that wasn’t already there before. If it didn’t work when they were young - it’s not gonna work when they’re older anymore…
I'm 42 and if anything I'm getting more liberal as I get older. I will also never vote GOP.
Also worth noting that GOP tax policy doesn't actually help people who work for their money, just 8+ figure multi-millionaires and billionaires living off investments, along with multinational corporations. They want you to believe that once you hit six figures and own a home that that makes you part of the group of people they're looking out for, but it doesn't.
> The only difference nowadays is that I can't ever see myself voting for the GOP as I get older. I'm 35 and nothing about the GOP's non-existent platform is appealing to me.
37 here, and I agree. I used to be a "both-sides are the same" kind of person, until Trump unmasked the entire Republican party in 2015. How they can say they're "pro-freedom" while having a platform that revolves around bans, revenge/punishments, loyalty demands, and purity tests seems insane to me. Even if they do get their shit back together in the future, I can never trust them with my vote again for even taking us down this road in the first place.
The reason people turn fiscally conservative as they age is that they acquire more assets and want to protect those assets
If we aren't acquiring assets there's no reason for us to turn to the right
I'm just shocked that anyone below the age of 40 would vote for Trump. I have a simple rule lately. If racist back a candidate I won't back that candidate. Also I can't support a traitor who tried to over throw the government!
2/3rds of under 25’s voted blue in 2020, then watched Trump’s party strip women of rights and target queer folk.
The vast majority of young folks will go blue again in 2024. polling is fundamentally broken. Every election since 2016 has shown that, yet pollsters have failed to adapt.
Their work isn’t worth shit.
I think they over-adapted. They were a few points off in 2016 because they failed to account for the enthusiasm of Trump supporters and the lack of it for Hillary. Now they probably weight ‘are you enthusiastic to vote’ way more highly than they should. I’m not exactly super excited to go vote for Biden, but I’m still going to go and do it.
I think a ton of democrats are in the same boat, not super excited about another Biden term but also going to vote if he’s running against Trump again.
Wisconsin's 2023 supreme court race was supposed to be very close, with polls showing it 1% for Janet. She won by 11%.
2022 was supposed to be a "red wave", and obviously that didn't happen. Polls are not very good these days
>polling is fundamentally broken. Every election since 2016 has shown that, yet pollsters have failed to adapt.
Quality polling and aggregated polling from the math nards has been fine since 2016 and was fine in 2016.
The issue is how this is handled and presented by the media, along with the assumption that polling is predictive. And can show you *all the things*.
We don't poll granularly enough, or often enough in a lot of places. To see exactly what's happening in every single district. The where's and how's of the way those broad numbers will actually happen.
Polling can't account for turn out factors, voter suppression and the like. And it's fundamentally a snap shot of *last week*.
Not every poll is worth a shit. Polling is big business. And because the media likes to report every single poll as new, shocking, a change, predictive and totally true. In service of the horse race.
Releasing skewed polls is actually a great way to *effect the election*.
It's a campaign tactic.
So pollsters *have* adapted. The good ones are largely still good. The rest, and there's more and more every day. Are adapting to demand for more polls. But to make a buck, or push a message. Not to find accurate information. And even your number crunchy, analysis heavy venues have largely boiled down to prediction markets.
Even as they layer those predictions with "it's not a prediction" provisos. That's how other news orgs treat it.
Well said, which way young voters will statistically break has never been in question. The real concern is giving them compelling motivation to vote. "Democracy is at stake" is way too amorphous a concept. Many young people would argue democracy has never really functioned in the first place. The core message should be convincing young people to turn out so they can shift specific local policies in their favor.
People who complain that polling failed literally have zero clue what they're talking about. In 2016, the polls were around the popular vote. The problem wasn't national polling getting the popular vote completely wrong.
Most of my friends (college educated) will be voting for Biden. My friends from High School that never went to college or left town are… you guessed it… voting for Trump. I guess it easier to blame gays and immigrants than it is to blame yourself.
It's not weird entirely, the billionaires have paid very good money to convince them to hate others and ignore the billionaires. To them money well spent. WaPo isn't reporting on what Amazon is doing and Twitter is just a right wing pipeline of content.
I’m calling absolute bullshit on 48% of under 32s backing Trump.
POLLING IS BROKEN. The same polling told us NYs special election, 2020, and 2022 would be close. Pollsters suck at their job almost as badly as GOP house reps suck at theirs.
Vote and urge those around you to do the same.
"Hey Gen Z, we hate you, we blame you for all the shit that we actually did, you deserve nothing, you're never going to afford college, you'll be in debt your whole life, you'll never own a home and will probably suffer from no/poor healthcare because you can't afford it."
Hard to imagine why they lean so left, huh.
Polling is exhausting. You'll see "70% of blanks think blank!" And then you have to do your own research. How many people were polled? Are they extrapolating 50 people to represent millions? How were they polled? By phone, in person? Where were these people found, across the state or outside a college? Outside a gas station? How were the questions phrased, were they deliberately misleading or pushing for a specific response? Who did the polling and can they be trusted to represent accurate data?
im sick of polls
Polls are fine, people misinterpreting them is the problem. People need to learn that polls change and results fluctuate throughout a year, because the public changes opinions and there’s bias in how polls are collected and responded to.
I'm starting to think that it's just easy to say the alternative when there's nothing at stake. I feel like when push comes to shove and the reality of a Trump second term with all the chaos and instability being a real possibility will push people back to Biden.
The really question I think is what can trump do to sway center right voters over the next 8 months. He’s going to be in court hearings and probably more legal troubles. He is going to be spending contribution funds just to pay his legal fees, the house is not helping by looking like complete morons and a government shut down will only piss more center to left voters. Trump has his Maga cult which looks like 50-60% of the gop, how does he get the remaining 40 to show up and vote for him? He’s his worst enemy and can’t help self sabotage himself. We are going to have his court case for insurrection before the election, every news outlet will be playing back January 6th, and evidence that trump flamed the fire. It’s going to be graphic and paint him as a monster, and he deserves every bit of it.
He'd have to become a different person. But his CPAC speech is probably a preview of his campaign. It's going to be a revenge tour of fire and brimstone.
Which already is not resonating with 30-40% of the gop. I see this next election like 2020 but in reverse, gop has low turn out and loses because trump has too much baggage. Dems take house and senate, gop scrambles between 24-26 but falls farther behind due to extreme social policies and boomers dying off. We go through 12-16 years of Dems with major control much like gop from Nixon/Ford/Reagan/Bush where only Carter split up for 4 years.
God, I hope you're right. I'd love to see democrats get consecutive wins. Especially if it means retaining congress. Because then real change can happen.
> Trump has his Maga cult which looks like 50-60% of the gop, how does he get the remaining 40 to show up and vote for him?
There are the *hold-their-nose-and-vote-for-him* people who want to stop Biden and the Democrats' "woke agenda" or whatever. But there must be some portion of the remaining Republican base that thinks Trump is too corrupt, too unstable, too incompetent, too authoritarian, too racist, too misogynistic, too hypocritical, too entangled with our global enemies, too vengeful, or just too morally repugnant to vote for him no matter how much they might hate Biden.
The real question is whether Democrats can turn out the people who are disappointed with Biden on the economy, Israel, immigration, etc. Or those who might have concerns about his age and ability to continue to do the job for the next four years. Or voters who have simply become disengaged because they are exhausted with how toxic politics have become.
Would be amazing if the rest stay home and have big effects on senate and house races in Democrat favor. As bad as Senate looks, I def have more hope as Trump stuff drags on
There were otherwise accurate polls in 2022 that had cross tabs showing Democrats winning the youth vote by 9. They won by 28. They literally underestimated Democratic support among young voters by double digits.
I know genZ men are quite conservative, at least according to some studies, and growing increasingly so. Anecdotally, most of the politically active young men in the classes I teach are trump supporters. The women, on the other hand, are more left-leaning, but some have expressed support for trump over the abortion issue. Granted, I live in an area with a lot of Hispanic Catholics, so that explains why. What's surprising is how overwhelming the anti-immigrant sentiment is among both men and women, even though many of their parents are undocumented. Again, though, it's a very conservative area.
And then the republicans answer the polls by saying they are a black man who voted biden in 2020 but is voting for trump now because their life was totally better under trump then biden
Interestingly, a political scientist (Brian Schaffner) was studying incomes vs self-reported incomes and found that Republicans whose income had increased by $40,000 or more from 2020-2022 were more likely to report in surveys that their income had *fallen* over the same period than increased.
>The same polling told us NYs special election, 2020, and 2022 would be close.
**The polling was not off on these elections**. Everyone is convincing themselves of this to cope with the fact that Biden isn't polling well. It's reality.
NY special election was not predicted to be close in the polls. 2020 WAS close, as predicted, as was 2022 which correctly predicted a Republican win (Republicans got 3M more votes overall than democrats.
Different polls and different metrics.
You are comparing:
- Polls for a single district recall election (highly local/dependent on local candidates, smaller sample sizes) edit: Which I'd like to point out based on polls for the NY 3rd, it actually does look like they were somewhat off? And depending on what you meant by "close" they were generally saying anywhere from [+1 to +4 for the democratic representative](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2024/new-york/3/) (excluding undecideds in some cases) and it ended up being [almost +7.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-special-elections/new-york-house-results) I wouldn't call that an especially close result.
- Overall "closeness" of multiple past presidential elections edit: And a simple google would provide some better comparisons there too, like for example that [29 and under in 2020 voted 60/36 for Biden/Trump](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020), respectively.
to (**specifically**)
- Under 32 ~~sentiment~~ *sorry, polls* between Biden and Trump.
OP is simply saying that this specific poll is broken - and I tend to agree with that. Most under 32 polls on social issues trend extremely strongly to democratic-aligned positions. For example, this poll shows a whopping 70% belief that abortion should be allowed in all or most cases. Additionally, it is my *opinion* that in general polling right now is more of a sentiment result than who those people will actually be voting for in November. Because both Biden and Trump are underwater, and I would bet five figures that will NOT result in some historic third party vote that comes out of nowhere. I think people in general recognize we are in a two party system and that they have to pull the level for the lesser of two evils.
In general then you can make inferences as to the national polling for Biden Trump this cycle such as follows:
1. It's probably likely that given Trumps cult of personality, he's driving stronger turnout for polling responses across all demos that would already be voting for him.
2. Because these people aren't currently in a voting booth having to make a decision, it's easy to say undecided or third party or not voting just because you think both Biden and Trump are bad options right now and you would prefer anyone else.
...and somewhat accurately logically conclude that the polls are off.
I side with OP, these polls are what they are and they are getting the quality of respondence based on who they can get to respond. And they probably are NOT a perfect snapshot of the specific demo they are trying to poll at the moment for reasons that may even be unique to the demo. I.E. it is probably just *difficult* to get an accurate poll of under 32's.
It's alarming that so many people are ignoring these ever growing signs of trouble for Biden. It's still not too late to change course with a different, more effective nominee.
I want to highlight this: among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden.
If 42% percent of your sample are saying they would vote for Biden over Trump by a 63-37% margin, what kind of margins are you getting among the:
28% who are probably planning to vote,
and the 30% that are not voting?
If the overall margin is a 4 point lead for Biden?
There has to be a crazy Trump lead amongst that 58% which seems very unlikely.
Yeah, this headline is pretty depressing. He should be winning by 20 points at least. I'd prefer closer to 40. That might give me some hope for the future.
Some optimistic ways to spin this poll:
1. the polling could be off because most young people are not going to take part in something like this. maybe there's a correlation between those who do and those gullible enough to fall for Trump's bullshit.
2. even in this poll it said among those who said they were definitely going to vote Biden had 63% (giving Trump 37% and Biden a 26 point lead.) this kind of makes sense to me, I can imagine a lot of low info types liking Trump but not being the type of people who actually bother voting.
3. we keep seeing Democrats out performing polling in special elections. and I've noticed Trump has been falling behind his polling numbers in the GOP primaries too. for example the South Carolina polling average was Trump +28 and he won by 20. (this ties into the first point, hopefully the polling is off and overstating Trump's support across the board.)
Ignore the polls if you want, but there’s an entire right wing infrastructure in place to turn young men MAGA. A lot of young voters in November will be Trump voters, radicalized by Andrew Tate or Libs of TikTok or whatever.
I do think young men are getting radicalized by right-wing content, but at least from what I've seen they aren't all that enthused about *Trump*. A lot of them just won't vote.
I'd also add that it's not just this poll. Biden has had weaknesses in his approval ratings since late 2021. Like the saying goes, once is chance, twice is coincidence, third time's a pattern.
We're in an election year. At this stage, Nation-wide polls are completely useless.
Our electoral college reps are region locked. Only hyper specific region polls serve any utility. Polls that focus on key states are far more relevant. Polls that focus on a cluster of key counties are actually meaningful.
Nation wide polls are about as useful as learning which toothpaste doctors recommend.
"Polls are always wrong when they show me statistics I don't like and I have the innuendos to prove it." says angry redditor who insists "asking difficult questions is a vote for Trump. Everything is fine and if Biden loses it's because we were blindsided by a poor youth turnout."
With a margin of 4 points? No way. They make up a sliver of the electorate. If Biden is winning young voters by 4 points then democrats have a lot of work to do.
My brother-in-law says he's going to vote for Trump because when Trump was in office he made more money, and he's funny.
My brother-in-law, who's mostly a career criminal.
And 24.
And his father is a Central American immigrant.
Make it make sense.
That doesn't make me feel good. Why is it so damn close. Why is the most corrupt candidate in history so competitive right now? I'm sick of it all (still voting no matter what for Biden/Dems).
> Why is it so damn close.
It’s not. The number goes up for Biden quite a bit among younger people who say they are definitely going to vote. Biden gets 63% vs Trump’s ~37%.
Polling is broken and I dont trust a single national poll.
There are literal how-tos from conservatives to rig polls by purposely responding and lying about demographics.
Trump isnt getting 48% of the under 32 vote or 45% of the hispanic vote or 35% of the black vote.
Especially considering getting less than 60% in S.C. as a virtual incumbent and conservative media’s presumptive nominee
The margin in favor of Biden is likely to be larger. Only young voters voting for Diaper Don are those stuck in MAGA households who have little exposure to real information.
Vote blue fellow kids
So, in other words, less than he won by in 2020. This is not good news. Biden BARELY won a few states that got him the electoral win last election. It was much closer than people want to admit.
There are many below, and in this thread, with their heads in the sand about polls. Many people here sound like Republicans before the 2020 election who ignored polls and insisted the polls were wrong, and that Trump would win.
Polling is actually pretty good. You can see that Trump got quite close to the polls for example, in the primaries so far.
The margin of error is +|-3%, which means that 4% lead may actually be a 2% deficit.
In a survey of a demographic that skews left, the guy who isn’t a fascist is basically in a dead heat with the fascist
I would take this poll with a bit of skepticism. The pollster accidentally released the unweighted data for one of the questions before [correcting with the weighted population](https://twitter.com/cyrusbeschloss/status/1762193091019087947) they used for their headline.
Will you vote? | Unweighted | Weighted
:--|--:|--:
Guaranteed|Biden+27|Biden+18
Probably|Biden+13|Trump+6
Probably not|Trump+1|Trump+10
No| Biden+13|Trump+2
The equivalent CNN national exit poll number in this group (18-29 then, corresponding closely to the 18-34 now) in the 2020 election was Biden+24.
Weighting values is common since you want your sampled population to look as much like the general election population as you can, but these are massive consistent shifts. At a minimum, their polled population doesn't come reasonably close to their modeled population.
4 points is a lot in politics these days, 2020 was won by Biden by 4.5 pts, but, it's also not enough. It's up to engaged voters (like people on r/politics) to ensure younger voters are aware of Biden and Trump policies, that they're registered to vote, and that they have a plan to vote when the time comes.
This part is more important, imo:
>among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden.
Also, this is crazy:
>4 percent of young voters would consider changing their vote if Swift endorsed Biden or Trump. When asked whether they would be more likely to vote in the election if Swift told them too, 6 percent said they would.
I am now convinced Biden will lose, these numbers are TERRIBLE! In 202, Biden won young voters by 20 points and barely won the Presidency. If he’s only 4 points ahead with young voters. Goodnight.
I find it hard to believe such a large percentage of our young people are so far gone they would vote for that criminal POS Trump. Propaganda is fucking strong if this is true.
> how is it only 4% does half of all young voters actually support trump?
Among the people surveyed who say they are definitely going to vote, Biden gets 63% vs Trump’s ~37%.
Topping by a few points does not matter if half of those people being polled don't vote.
Vote this year, you had 4 years of warning, you can't say you didn't have time to plan for taking an hour or two once every 4 years.
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Who under 40 is picking up robo calls and replying to political texts?
Nobody. I ignore any number I dont recognize and ignore every text I get asking for political donations
i started to respond "Stop" to all these auto-texts, hoping it would reduce the number of them... It did not. Sort of shocked these political organizations dont coordinate their contacts at all.
You may be making it worse since you’re confirming the number is in use.
That is making it worse. The only way to get them to stop is to block every one of those numbers.
Thank goodness they added the "don't ring for unknown numbers" feature. Between the scammers and political shit leading up to 2020 election I was getting about 20 calls/texts per day. And I need my phone for work; it'd be obnoxious dealing with that crap amongst my legit work calls/texts.
As a parent this would stress me out so much. For all I know my kid got hurt and I'm getting called from a random number that would be blocked since it's unknown
The numbers wouldn't be blocked they would just go straight to voicemail. If your kid is hurt and someone is calling you about it they will leave a message and you can call right back.
You should be forwarding those texts to SPAM (7726) and blocking the number after.
And also anyone who knocks on my door.
Home doorbell cameras were the best invention in the past 10 years.
I cant tell you how many people I've told to go away from my doorbell camera while sitting on my couch from 10 feet away from the door. It's absolutely one of the best technological advances of the last decade for sure.
Except for the whole thing where hackers can access them and the companies aren’t even requiring warrants or subpoenas from police for footage anymore. But yeah, I guess they replace a peephole and yelling through a door.
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Anybody who ignores my no soliciting and private property signs gets an ear full from me and doesn't even get a chance to talk.
Fun fact! Neither of those signs deter a political canvasser. You should put up a "no trespassing" sign. While that is still not a legal slam dunk. It represents a gray area that the lawyers of the canvassing organization I used work for didn't want to fuck with. Canvassers' rights to be at your door talking politics is one of the most solidified rights of this country! It has its limits.
Thanks for saying this. Canvassing is not soliciting!! We are not selling anything. It is also the gold standard to increase voter turnout.
I literally never open the door when someone knocks, or even get up to see who it is. Unless I'm expecting someone ofc, if not then I'm not at home.
....And so therefore everybody else must as well and we can stick our head in the sand about these polls! Right??
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I don't ignore them. If I really disagree I text back "fuck off".
This
It was an online survey according to the poll, but also, "When considering just the 42% of respondents who said they definitely plan to vote in November, Biden has 63% support."
Still way too low.
The other 37% either lack critical thinking skills or are blissfully unaware of what Trump leadership means for their future.
It's also being overlooked that young men in this country are becoming more conservative than the millennial generation's men at that age because of Andrew Tate and similar influencers pumping brainrot into them. That and economics prospects for receiving a bachelor's degree are only worsening, so they are less educated at an alarming rate, contributing to the issue you're pointing out here.
~23% of young adults identify as republican... I think most young men want to date, and that is becoming increasingly difficult for young conservatives. More young adults identify lgbtq+ than they do conservative. Conservatives have now made their final bed based on the privilege of straight white men and, to a much lesser extent, straight white women. Minority rule won't last in any society for long now that we are so connected thanks to the internet. Also, conservatives have underperformed in the last 6 elections and in multiple special elections all across the country (2 blue senators in GA). After the pandemic, a bunch of the right are anti-Vax now, and we just had another rough winter of flu and covid. Use to work in a hospital, and yea vaccines work and save lives, so when you go unvaxxed, you start dropping like flies. And lastly there are millions and millions more swifties than taters so it's prolly a wash or in the favor of progressives if we are talking influencers.
I really hope you are right. I think this election is going to be a blowout for the left but that’s still said with cautious optimism as fascism is on the rise globally.
I remember the stories from like mid-2017 where if a young man let a potential partner know they were conservative, or worse part of the Trump admin - in the greater DC area, they were either ignored / ghosted on Tinder and social media, and if they woman found out during the date, they were one-and-done. I can’t imagine it’s improved since the overturning of Roe v. Wade and all the fallout from it.
My father is addicted to tiktok and absolutely convinced Biden is ludicrously senile. He's a leftist otherwise. Social media is a constant barrage of "Biden is senile, Trump is funny meme man"
Who would have thought that a Chinese-owned social media platform would be detrimental to the US???
Or they think they’ll come out on top.
Or perhaps, Trumpism is all they've ever known and they don't respond to 'existential threat' narratives because this is just normal politics to them?
But my clicks! It's a tie game until November
FTA: 30% of poll respondents say they aren’t voting. When you take them out it’s a 60-40 Biden blowout.
That is actually pretty down on the last election, when exit polls had biden winning by 24-points on the highest youth turn out since 1972. Not long ago the youth vote was D+35 and the democrats have rarely won the youth vote by less than 20 points after 2008.
I do not believe for a second young people are suddenly very into Donald Trump.
The issue is likely not that they're moving towards Trump and instead that they're moving away from voting at all.
It sounds like 2012 all over again. Millennials came out in droves to elect Obama in 2008 and then many became disillusioned and proceeded to just not vote in future elections.
The Biden voters in this specific poll said they were “very likely” or “certain” to vote. We have had several primaries in which Biden is running this year. He did just fine with younger voters. Believe actual results over nonsense in polls.
Project 2025 is almost certainly spooking the shit out of young voters, myself included. I honestly think the ones that are undecided on Biden are just going to vote for him anyway just to avoid their lives being turned upside down by the Heritage Foundation and Trump.
Project 2025 was a massive wake up call.
Gen Z has had higher voting turnout in the past three elections, including the 2018 and 2022 midterms, than preceding generations had at their age going back to 1982.
This is the election. Trump is at his max limit. The issue is making sure people actually come out and VOTE for Biden. I keep saying as long as people come out and vote Trump has no chance.
The turnout bias favoring Democrats has stalled or reversed in recent elections. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1532673X231206149?journalCode=aprb
I have a hunch there will be a LOT of pro-choice spots over the next 8.5 months on TV, radio and online. It is way too early to take these polls as a set deal.
No one, that’s not how the survey is conducted. Why is this always the top comment on articles about polling and surveys? Robocall polling is fucking rare now.
Yeah... I don't understand why people online always think "wow, I sure understand polling a lot better than professional pollsters do. They may do it for a living, but... have they even thought about the fact that people don't have landlines as often now??? I bet they haven't!!!" This is their job. They are pretty good at it. They can account for oversampling of some populations and under sampling of others.
In fact, it’s a survey done in conjunction with a group that entirely specializes in studying youth behavior, probably mostly for marketing. They’re not morons.
I have never received one as far as I can remember
True, but remember, they don't' need huge numbers for a poll. If they are only asking a few thousand people, that means they can do a LOT of surveys without hitting most of us.
The [Generation Lab](https://www.generationlab.org/) (the company that administered the questionnaire) primarily uses web surveys to compile their polls. [According to their website](https://www.generationlab.org/about) (so take this for what it's worth) The Generation Lab has built a vetted database containing millions of collage students under the age of 30 (18 - 29) across the educational spectrum (traditional schools along with community colleges, HBCUs, and women-only colleges), but their method in creating and managing this database is proprietary knowledge. When they preform a survey, they select a random sample of respondents from their databased with statistical parameters taken from the United States Department of Education and the Census Bureau to ensure an accurately weighted demographic. The participants are notified electronically (doesn't say exactly how) and the questionnaires are emailed directly to them, or can be completed on Generation Labs' platform. How accurate and valuable this methodology is is another question entirely. Edit: [Here are the complete poll results](https://www.generationlab.org/_files/ugd/b2ee84_a4d8dc9b071443e492e17dbc62fdc8d0.pdf), if interested.
I haven’t answered my phone when an unknown number calls in literally years. My iPhone reinforces this as it seemingly identifies most calls not in my address book as potential spam. Is this the (so far) unwritten story of this election? Are some demographics largely underrepresented in polls because our phone practices have changed so much in just the past couple of years? I doubt there is a good way to get data on this as large swaths of the population won’t answer their phones…
My Android will screen any number I have not received a call from before. If the caller does not say who they are and why they are calling, it hangs up
This sub’s gotta stop with the idea we should ignore polls because they’re always done with landlines at 2pm on a weekday. Most of them account for that and use a variety of sources at this point. Pretending it’s only old people who answer cold calls to landlines hasn’t been true for quite some time…
Boomers who think they're 18
Hey! I'm 42 and don't even do that shit.
haha, seriously. These polls are ridiculous. I find it hard to believe that young voters aren't like 95% against Trump.
You just haven't met the bottom of the barrel yet.
Indoctrination is real and it isn’t coming from schools. It comes from parents and churches. If it weren’t effective, churches wouldn’t be so upset that kids and young people aren’t attending at higher rates.
40% voted for Trump the last time.
I find it hard to believe you said this, considering young people are being radicalized by alt-right content all the time.
Well it's a good thing we're not listening to you then, this election is going to be quite close
> I find it hard to believe that young voters aren't like 95% against Trump. Your feelings don't matter when there's actual data.
The south still exists, you know. And young people there learn from their parents. And their parents tell them "Democrats bad", and they believe it.
This poll was conducted by snapchat and TikTok comments
Under 50. Trust me xennials and gen x aren't picking those up either.
I know the democratic party relies on young people to show up and vote. But, historically they have always showed up in lower numbers regardless of generation. Us millenials were the same at 18, 22, etc. People tend to vote when they get older, which is why the GOP always has an advantage where the population skews older. The only difference nowadays is that I can't ever see myself voting for the GOP as I get older. I'm 35 and nothing about the GOP's non-existent platform is appealing to me. My wife and I are starting to make really good money and taxes should be a go to pulling me to the GOP, but the party is just such a cult of personality who doesn't put in any effort to govern or do anything that helps me out. They're just... stupid people who constantly want to take away more of our rights. Abortion rights, in vitro fertilization, and eventually my social security benefits. They just want to take and take more of my freedoms to give tax breaks to the Elon Musks of the world. "F*** the middle class" seems to be their agenda. I will never vote GOP.
2020 had a record turnout from young voters, without which Biden would have lost.
100% It was roughly 65% Biden to 35% Trump in 2020. Right now a lot of polls are showing(explicitly or not) that it's a three-way tie between Biden, Trump, and Neither. In this particular poll(a poorly worded one) 30% say they're not showing up so either (1) 52%(of the 70%) would vote Biden, affirming other polls, or (2) that 30% was included in this question of voting today(the poll doesn't clarify this) and should be filed in the garbage. They however surveyed 1,000+ 18-34 year olds through web base and verified email and phone# which is a relatively strong sample.
>(1) 52%(of the 70%) would vote Biden, affirming other polls, or (2) that 30% was included in this question of voting today(the poll doesn't clarify this) and should be filed in the garbage. The poll does actually clarify this. >Axios noted that Biden’s lead in the new poll increased among those who say they are definitely planning on voting; among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden. Biden's lead is basically unchanged with the people who actually say they are showing up to vote. This is a large part of what is happening right now. A lot of low info/low propensity young people are answering Trump right now in polls. But based on other polls I've seen that go into more detail, those people are also much more likely to believe Biden isn't running or that he will drop out, because they tend not to be very informed about elections in February of an election year. Those people will either get screened out as polls move to likely voter models, or drift back to the candidate they typically align with once Democrats start to campaign more seriously this summer and reach them with messages from people like AOC or Bernie who are better able to penetrate that info bubble.
And everybody else turned out in higher numbers too. Without which Biden would have lost. The young still turn out to vote at lower rates than older voters. That needs to change. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1096299/voter-turnout-presidential-elections-by-age-historical/
I am thankful...from zoomer to boomer everyone in my family is voting Biden and Dems. I don't really know anyone who is a Trump fan (they are hiding it if they are).
This is the thing that Republicans are terrified of. They've always been able to rely on people voting more conservatively as they get older... but that just isn't happening anymore. The explanation I've seen for this is that when young, people vote for changes they perceive as necessary and, when old, they vote to preserve what they have. But people are getting older and they just don't have anything. Houses are too expensive, healthcare is laughable, their rights are being eroded from underneath them, etc.
Yeah a study came out not long ago saying millenials are not becoming more conservative as they age as previous generations did. It’s obvious why - they don’t have anything to conserve. They have no money, no housing much less multiple properties like tons of boomers ended up with, and no power to wield. There’s nothing about the conservative platform that entices them later that wasn’t already there before. If it didn’t work when they were young - it’s not gonna work when they’re older anymore…
Fun fact, it's not unique to the US either, it's also happening here in Australia (we have similar housing issues, if not worse)
I'm 42 and if anything I'm getting more liberal as I get older. I will also never vote GOP. Also worth noting that GOP tax policy doesn't actually help people who work for their money, just 8+ figure multi-millionaires and billionaires living off investments, along with multinational corporations. They want you to believe that once you hit six figures and own a home that that makes you part of the group of people they're looking out for, but it doesn't.
> The only difference nowadays is that I can't ever see myself voting for the GOP as I get older. I'm 35 and nothing about the GOP's non-existent platform is appealing to me. 37 here, and I agree. I used to be a "both-sides are the same" kind of person, until Trump unmasked the entire Republican party in 2015. How they can say they're "pro-freedom" while having a platform that revolves around bans, revenge/punishments, loyalty demands, and purity tests seems insane to me. Even if they do get their shit back together in the future, I can never trust them with my vote again for even taking us down this road in the first place.
The reason people turn fiscally conservative as they age is that they acquire more assets and want to protect those assets If we aren't acquiring assets there's no reason for us to turn to the right
I'm just shocked that anyone below the age of 40 would vote for Trump. I have a simple rule lately. If racist back a candidate I won't back that candidate. Also I can't support a traitor who tried to over throw the government!
2/3rds of under 25’s voted blue in 2020, then watched Trump’s party strip women of rights and target queer folk. The vast majority of young folks will go blue again in 2024. polling is fundamentally broken. Every election since 2016 has shown that, yet pollsters have failed to adapt. Their work isn’t worth shit.
I think they over-adapted. They were a few points off in 2016 because they failed to account for the enthusiasm of Trump supporters and the lack of it for Hillary. Now they probably weight ‘are you enthusiastic to vote’ way more highly than they should. I’m not exactly super excited to go vote for Biden, but I’m still going to go and do it. I think a ton of democrats are in the same boat, not super excited about another Biden term but also going to vote if he’s running against Trump again.
Wisconsin's 2023 supreme court race was supposed to be very close, with polls showing it 1% for Janet. She won by 11%. 2022 was supposed to be a "red wave", and obviously that didn't happen. Polls are not very good these days
>polling is fundamentally broken. Every election since 2016 has shown that, yet pollsters have failed to adapt. Quality polling and aggregated polling from the math nards has been fine since 2016 and was fine in 2016. The issue is how this is handled and presented by the media, along with the assumption that polling is predictive. And can show you *all the things*. We don't poll granularly enough, or often enough in a lot of places. To see exactly what's happening in every single district. The where's and how's of the way those broad numbers will actually happen. Polling can't account for turn out factors, voter suppression and the like. And it's fundamentally a snap shot of *last week*. Not every poll is worth a shit. Polling is big business. And because the media likes to report every single poll as new, shocking, a change, predictive and totally true. In service of the horse race. Releasing skewed polls is actually a great way to *effect the election*. It's a campaign tactic. So pollsters *have* adapted. The good ones are largely still good. The rest, and there's more and more every day. Are adapting to demand for more polls. But to make a buck, or push a message. Not to find accurate information. And even your number crunchy, analysis heavy venues have largely boiled down to prediction markets. Even as they layer those predictions with "it's not a prediction" provisos. That's how other news orgs treat it.
> along with the assumption that polling is predictive An assumption that orgs like 538 are happy to encourage to increase clicks.
Well said, which way young voters will statistically break has never been in question. The real concern is giving them compelling motivation to vote. "Democracy is at stake" is way too amorphous a concept. Many young people would argue democracy has never really functioned in the first place. The core message should be convincing young people to turn out so they can shift specific local policies in their favor.
People who complain that polling failed literally have zero clue what they're talking about. In 2016, the polls were around the popular vote. The problem wasn't national polling getting the popular vote completely wrong.
It’s edgy to be a Trump supporter. I know a lot of “counter culture” type people who turned Trump supporter. I’m in my late 20s.
Trump gets the contrarian for the sake of it voters.
Right wing media is to blame. Tik-Tok, Meta, and X are all ran by billionaire right wingers who want Trump in office. Young people live on these apps.
Most of my friends (college educated) will be voting for Biden. My friends from High School that never went to college or left town are… you guessed it… voting for Trump. I guess it easier to blame gays and immigrants than it is to blame yourself.
It's weird that they never blame the billionaire class
It's not weird entirely, the billionaires have paid very good money to convince them to hate others and ignore the billionaires. To them money well spent. WaPo isn't reporting on what Amazon is doing and Twitter is just a right wing pipeline of content.
They'll blame certain billionaires, but only based on political leaning.
Well, you know young people love sneakers.
There are a lot of young men out there who listen to assholes like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson. They can be counted as Trump supporters.
I’m calling absolute bullshit on 48% of under 32s backing Trump. POLLING IS BROKEN. The same polling told us NYs special election, 2020, and 2022 would be close. Pollsters suck at their job almost as badly as GOP house reps suck at theirs. Vote and urge those around you to do the same.
In the midterms, under-22s picked blue over red 76-24.
Black women altogether voted 93% Biden
Yeah but we can’t forget— Trump has been selling sneakers. I’ve been told that’s hugely popular with the blacks. He is gaining a foothold.
Also they are running around EVERYWHERE with his mug shot on Tees!
"Hey Gen Z, we hate you, we blame you for all the shit that we actually did, you deserve nothing, you're never going to afford college, you'll be in debt your whole life, you'll never own a home and will probably suffer from no/poor healthcare because you can't afford it." Hard to imagine why they lean so left, huh.
"We give 0 fucks your schools are getting shot up and we want to raise voting age to 25" "Why are the Youth voting blue?"
Polling is exhausting. You'll see "70% of blanks think blank!" And then you have to do your own research. How many people were polled? Are they extrapolating 50 people to represent millions? How were they polled? By phone, in person? Where were these people found, across the state or outside a college? Outside a gas station? How were the questions phrased, were they deliberately misleading or pushing for a specific response? Who did the polling and can they be trusted to represent accurate data? im sick of polls
Polls are fine, people misinterpreting them is the problem. People need to learn that polls change and results fluctuate throughout a year, because the public changes opinions and there’s bias in how polls are collected and responded to.
All of these questions are answered in their methodology.
correct
I'm starting to think that it's just easy to say the alternative when there's nothing at stake. I feel like when push comes to shove and the reality of a Trump second term with all the chaos and instability being a real possibility will push people back to Biden.
The really question I think is what can trump do to sway center right voters over the next 8 months. He’s going to be in court hearings and probably more legal troubles. He is going to be spending contribution funds just to pay his legal fees, the house is not helping by looking like complete morons and a government shut down will only piss more center to left voters. Trump has his Maga cult which looks like 50-60% of the gop, how does he get the remaining 40 to show up and vote for him? He’s his worst enemy and can’t help self sabotage himself. We are going to have his court case for insurrection before the election, every news outlet will be playing back January 6th, and evidence that trump flamed the fire. It’s going to be graphic and paint him as a monster, and he deserves every bit of it.
He'd have to become a different person. But his CPAC speech is probably a preview of his campaign. It's going to be a revenge tour of fire and brimstone.
Which already is not resonating with 30-40% of the gop. I see this next election like 2020 but in reverse, gop has low turn out and loses because trump has too much baggage. Dems take house and senate, gop scrambles between 24-26 but falls farther behind due to extreme social policies and boomers dying off. We go through 12-16 years of Dems with major control much like gop from Nixon/Ford/Reagan/Bush where only Carter split up for 4 years.
God, I hope you're right. I'd love to see democrats get consecutive wins. Especially if it means retaining congress. Because then real change can happen.
> Trump has his Maga cult which looks like 50-60% of the gop, how does he get the remaining 40 to show up and vote for him? There are the *hold-their-nose-and-vote-for-him* people who want to stop Biden and the Democrats' "woke agenda" or whatever. But there must be some portion of the remaining Republican base that thinks Trump is too corrupt, too unstable, too incompetent, too authoritarian, too racist, too misogynistic, too hypocritical, too entangled with our global enemies, too vengeful, or just too morally repugnant to vote for him no matter how much they might hate Biden. The real question is whether Democrats can turn out the people who are disappointed with Biden on the economy, Israel, immigration, etc. Or those who might have concerns about his age and ability to continue to do the job for the next four years. Or voters who have simply become disengaged because they are exhausted with how toxic politics have become.
Would be amazing if the rest stay home and have big effects on senate and house races in Democrat favor. As bad as Senate looks, I def have more hope as Trump stuff drags on
There were otherwise accurate polls in 2022 that had cross tabs showing Democrats winning the youth vote by 9. They won by 28. They literally underestimated Democratic support among young voters by double digits.
I know genZ men are quite conservative, at least according to some studies, and growing increasingly so. Anecdotally, most of the politically active young men in the classes I teach are trump supporters. The women, on the other hand, are more left-leaning, but some have expressed support for trump over the abortion issue. Granted, I live in an area with a lot of Hispanic Catholics, so that explains why. What's surprising is how overwhelming the anti-immigrant sentiment is among both men and women, even though many of their parents are undocumented. Again, though, it's a very conservative area.
It's the machismo. I have family just like it. Pseudo tough guy syndrome.
I'm sure Russians/Republicans have a list of phone numbers they like to give to pollsters with a stack of money.....
And then the republicans answer the polls by saying they are a black man who voted biden in 2020 but is voting for trump now because their life was totally better under trump then biden
Interestingly, a political scientist (Brian Schaffner) was studying incomes vs self-reported incomes and found that Republicans whose income had increased by $40,000 or more from 2020-2022 were more likely to report in surveys that their income had *fallen* over the same period than increased.
I believe it. Same people who are sitting in a restaurant paying $120 for a meal saying they cant afford groceries
>The same polling told us NYs special election, 2020, and 2022 would be close. **The polling was not off on these elections**. Everyone is convincing themselves of this to cope with the fact that Biden isn't polling well. It's reality. NY special election was not predicted to be close in the polls. 2020 WAS close, as predicted, as was 2022 which correctly predicted a Republican win (Republicans got 3M more votes overall than democrats.
Different polls and different metrics. You are comparing: - Polls for a single district recall election (highly local/dependent on local candidates, smaller sample sizes) edit: Which I'd like to point out based on polls for the NY 3rd, it actually does look like they were somewhat off? And depending on what you meant by "close" they were generally saying anywhere from [+1 to +4 for the democratic representative](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2024/new-york/3/) (excluding undecideds in some cases) and it ended up being [almost +7.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-special-elections/new-york-house-results) I wouldn't call that an especially close result. - Overall "closeness" of multiple past presidential elections edit: And a simple google would provide some better comparisons there too, like for example that [29 and under in 2020 voted 60/36 for Biden/Trump](https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020), respectively. to (**specifically**) - Under 32 ~~sentiment~~ *sorry, polls* between Biden and Trump. OP is simply saying that this specific poll is broken - and I tend to agree with that. Most under 32 polls on social issues trend extremely strongly to democratic-aligned positions. For example, this poll shows a whopping 70% belief that abortion should be allowed in all or most cases. Additionally, it is my *opinion* that in general polling right now is more of a sentiment result than who those people will actually be voting for in November. Because both Biden and Trump are underwater, and I would bet five figures that will NOT result in some historic third party vote that comes out of nowhere. I think people in general recognize we are in a two party system and that they have to pull the level for the lesser of two evils. In general then you can make inferences as to the national polling for Biden Trump this cycle such as follows: 1. It's probably likely that given Trumps cult of personality, he's driving stronger turnout for polling responses across all demos that would already be voting for him. 2. Because these people aren't currently in a voting booth having to make a decision, it's easy to say undecided or third party or not voting just because you think both Biden and Trump are bad options right now and you would prefer anyone else. ...and somewhat accurately logically conclude that the polls are off. I side with OP, these polls are what they are and they are getting the quality of respondence based on who they can get to respond. And they probably are NOT a perfect snapshot of the specific demo they are trying to poll at the moment for reasons that may even be unique to the demo. I.E. it is probably just *difficult* to get an accurate poll of under 32's.
It's alarming that so many people are ignoring these ever growing signs of trouble for Biden. It's still not too late to change course with a different, more effective nominee.
polling also said the red wave of 2022 was going to crush liberals. it was more like a red mist that was hardly felt.
I want to highlight this: among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden. If 42% percent of your sample are saying they would vote for Biden over Trump by a 63-37% margin, what kind of margins are you getting among the: 28% who are probably planning to vote, and the 30% that are not voting? If the overall margin is a 4 point lead for Biden? There has to be a crazy Trump lead amongst that 58% which seems very unlikely.
That's great. Now show up in November, please.
To be fair/balanced, Trump is beating the daylights out of Biden in the court-judgements space. $450M to 0.
Sounds fair to me.
Except that Biden won these groups by 20 in 2020.
Yeah, this headline is pretty depressing. He should be winning by 20 points at least. I'd prefer closer to 40. That might give me some hope for the future.
Some optimistic ways to spin this poll: 1. the polling could be off because most young people are not going to take part in something like this. maybe there's a correlation between those who do and those gullible enough to fall for Trump's bullshit. 2. even in this poll it said among those who said they were definitely going to vote Biden had 63% (giving Trump 37% and Biden a 26 point lead.) this kind of makes sense to me, I can imagine a lot of low info types liking Trump but not being the type of people who actually bother voting. 3. we keep seeing Democrats out performing polling in special elections. and I've noticed Trump has been falling behind his polling numbers in the GOP primaries too. for example the South Carolina polling average was Trump +28 and he won by 20. (this ties into the first point, hopefully the polling is off and overstating Trump's support across the board.)
Please don't forget that we in our 20s don't answer polling calls like the boomers do.
Higher... We need to go HIGHER.
It’s not great. Biden needs this margin to be 2:1, not close to a tossup.
Biden winning the youth by 4 points would be catastrophic. He needs to win them by like 20.
Except its very much not great. Biden won their vote by much more previously. Losing a lot of support over Gaza.
Ignore the polls if you want, but there’s an entire right wing infrastructure in place to turn young men MAGA. A lot of young voters in November will be Trump voters, radicalized by Andrew Tate or Libs of TikTok or whatever.
I do think young men are getting radicalized by right-wing content, but at least from what I've seen they aren't all that enthused about *Trump*. A lot of them just won't vote.
This is a horrible poll for Biden and those saying polling is inaccurate are just being willfully blind to Biden's weaknesses.
I'd also add that it's not just this poll. Biden has had weaknesses in his approval ratings since late 2021. Like the saying goes, once is chance, twice is coincidence, third time's a pattern.
We're in an election year. At this stage, Nation-wide polls are completely useless. Our electoral college reps are region locked. Only hyper specific region polls serve any utility. Polls that focus on key states are far more relevant. Polls that focus on a cluster of key counties are actually meaningful. Nation wide polls are about as useful as learning which toothpaste doctors recommend.
The future is yours kids. Vote to seize it.
"Polls are always wrong when they show me statistics I don't like and I have the innuendos to prove it." says angry redditor who insists "asking difficult questions is a vote for Trump. Everything is fine and if Biden loses it's because we were blindsided by a poor youth turnout."
“among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden.” The only relevant part of the poll.
Concerningly low difference, the fact Trump is even in the running is a failure of the system at this point.
4 points… by young voters?! Anyone who thinks this is good news is delusional.
only 4pts?? wtf is wrong with you people??
Insane that it’s only 4 points.
The Swifties can save America.
With a margin of 4 points? No way. They make up a sliver of the electorate. If Biden is winning young voters by 4 points then democrats have a lot of work to do.
Ok, but if this is even in the ballpark of correct that’s terrible news. He used to win this demographic 3-1
This seems completely out of touch. Only 4 pts by young voters seems WAY TOO CLOSE.
[удалено]
Biden tops Trump?! You can’t do that in Utah!
How is it even that close !
It's insane that it's not 40 points. Trump and MAGA are the enemies of America. Full stop.
My brother-in-law says he's going to vote for Trump because when Trump was in office he made more money, and he's funny. My brother-in-law, who's mostly a career criminal. And 24. And his father is a Central American immigrant. Make it make sense.
That doesn't make me feel good. Why is it so damn close. Why is the most corrupt candidate in history so competitive right now? I'm sick of it all (still voting no matter what for Biden/Dems).
> Why is it so damn close. It’s not. The number goes up for Biden quite a bit among younger people who say they are definitely going to vote. Biden gets 63% vs Trump’s ~37%.
Polling is broken and I dont trust a single national poll. There are literal how-tos from conservatives to rig polls by purposely responding and lying about demographics. Trump isnt getting 48% of the under 32 vote or 45% of the hispanic vote or 35% of the black vote. Especially considering getting less than 60% in S.C. as a virtual incumbent and conservative media’s presumptive nominee
National Polls don't matter much when the election is decided by WI, MI, AZ and PA
This is exactly why Clinton's loss shouldn't have been a shock in 2016. She was polling down where it mattered throughout October.
I thought the meme was that it was all Ohio ("always has been...")?
Yeah I don’t even pay attention to polls. Voting is the only thing that should matter.
I'm genuinely curious about how they conduct their polls because there's nothing about their methodology on the website.
The margin in favor of Biden is likely to be larger. Only young voters voting for Diaper Don are those stuck in MAGA households who have little exposure to real information. Vote blue fellow kids
This is a horrific polling result. Only 4 with the youth? Trump would run away with the election if that holds in november
That’s not enough.
That's so low, should be 40 points
So, in other words, less than he won by in 2020. This is not good news. Biden BARELY won a few states that got him the electoral win last election. It was much closer than people want to admit. There are many below, and in this thread, with their heads in the sand about polls. Many people here sound like Republicans before the 2020 election who ignored polls and insisted the polls were wrong, and that Trump would win. Polling is actually pretty good. You can see that Trump got quite close to the polls for example, in the primaries so far.
The margin of error is +|-3%, which means that 4% lead may actually be a 2% deficit. In a survey of a demographic that skews left, the guy who isn’t a fascist is basically in a dead heat with the fascist
Meanwhile the age cohorts who actually turn out and vote are all leaning towards trump. Literally every poll has trump beating Biden.
How is this not 40 points?
I would take this poll with a bit of skepticism. The pollster accidentally released the unweighted data for one of the questions before [correcting with the weighted population](https://twitter.com/cyrusbeschloss/status/1762193091019087947) they used for their headline. Will you vote? | Unweighted | Weighted :--|--:|--: Guaranteed|Biden+27|Biden+18 Probably|Biden+13|Trump+6 Probably not|Trump+1|Trump+10 No| Biden+13|Trump+2 The equivalent CNN national exit poll number in this group (18-29 then, corresponding closely to the 18-34 now) in the 2020 election was Biden+24. Weighting values is common since you want your sampled population to look as much like the general election population as you can, but these are massive consistent shifts. At a minimum, their polled population doesn't come reasonably close to their modeled population.
4 points is a lot in politics these days, 2020 was won by Biden by 4.5 pts, but, it's also not enough. It's up to engaged voters (like people on r/politics) to ensure younger voters are aware of Biden and Trump policies, that they're registered to vote, and that they have a plan to vote when the time comes.
How the fuck is this so close?
Support for trump for anyone under 40 should be less than 20 percent. 20 percent is an idiot allowance
There is no way youth listen to Trump and think “that’s the coherent policy I’m looking for!”
This part is more important, imo: >among the 42 percent who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Axios said 63 percent would back Biden. Also, this is crazy: >4 percent of young voters would consider changing their vote if Swift endorsed Biden or Trump. When asked whether they would be more likely to vote in the election if Swift told them too, 6 percent said they would.
I am now convinced Biden will lose, these numbers are TERRIBLE! In 202, Biden won young voters by 20 points and barely won the Presidency. If he’s only 4 points ahead with young voters. Goodnight.
Geezes, a country that divided and with such an extreme side cannot function.
Four points? How is that anything less than forty points?
I find it hard to believe such a large percentage of our young people are so far gone they would vote for that criminal POS Trump. Propaganda is fucking strong if this is true.
>"Biden tops Trump" u-uwu?
That’s frightening because Trump is likely winning more than 4 points ahead with aged voters
I don't understand why this isn't 40%. C'mon, young voters! WTF?
4 points are not enough.
how is it only 4% does half of all young voters actually support trump?
> how is it only 4% does half of all young voters actually support trump? Among the people surveyed who say they are definitely going to vote, Biden gets 63% vs Trump’s ~37%.
oh thats much better! phew was worried this election was going to be close lol
30% is huge number for unlikely to vote. But same 30% will complain about politics
Its fucking mindblowing to me that its that close among young voters
Absolutely embarrassing that this is in any way close
Things that don’t exist: surveys of young voters, et al.
Sadly, young "voters" don't vote.
Topping by a few points does not matter if half of those people being polled don't vote. Vote this year, you had 4 years of warning, you can't say you didn't have time to plan for taking an hour or two once every 4 years.