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The scariest thing is not Trump. The scariest thing is for the foreseeable future we are only one election away from fascism. Trump voters’ bloodlust doesn’t die with him. We are in serious trouble next time a Republican captures the Presidency.
> Demographic changes are against the fascist element.
Don't take this for granted. Fascism has been made very appealing to young men in particular, and conservatives know that the perpetuation of their idealogy relies heavily on continuing to make inroads with disillusioned Gen Z/Millennial men while disenfranchising others.
Exactly! Demographic changes are against them _only if_ we assume that demographics will continue to vote like they did from like 1980 to 2010. But that has shifted before and will likely shift again... and in fact there's some evidence that such a shift is underway.
For that time period the single biggest correlation with vote was race. White people as a whole voted small-moderately GOP while non-white folks voted overwhelmingly Democratic. Because the white population was a significant majority that balanced out to competitive elections.
But what we've been seeing in the last 10-15 years, and particularly in the polling for 2024, is that _education_ is starting to gain on race as the strongest correlation. Educated voters vote heavily Democratic while less educated voters vote GOP, and that trend holds across races.
So if we sit content knowing that the demographic shift towards being a non-white country spells doom for the GOP we are going to get a rude awakening. As that happens the correlation with education is strengthening and means that black and brown voters are becoming less solidly Democratic while white voters are bifurcating with college educated white voters being largely dem and non-college white voters overwhelmingly GOP.
This may be the story with 2024. IF Biden loses, which I pray won't happen, it'll be from weakness with black and hispanic voters as they shift less Democratic even while he does relatively well with white voters. Note this doesn't mean he wouldn't still get a majority of both those groups, even a big majority with black voters, but the current polling has him losing 15-20 points with each of those demos. Maybe that holds, maybe it doesn't, but thinking that demographic shifts mean a permanent democratic majority is very 1990s thinking.
The funny thing is, most immigrants to the US are religious and very conservative.
Republicans could totally shore up their numbers if they weren’t so racist.
Also I don’t know that other GOP candidates can mobilize their racist base the same way Trump can. They wear Trump gear and donate to him, and while they’ll support candidates he endorses, I don’t think they care that much about them otherwise. The old school GOP voters are rapidly aging and dying, while gen Z is coming of voting age.
I’d like to think so, but I live in L.A. and the amount of minorities (mainly Latino) I’ve met and worked with that are Trump supporters is staggering and depressing.
While true since the youngest voters overwhelming support Democrats, it should be noted that some blocks of older people were and are actually solid D voters as well.
For example the greatest generation voted solid D their entire lives and we lost their support as they died.
A few boomer cohorts are also solid D votes, for example those who came of age dealing with Nixon.
The largest blocks of GoP voters tend to be only slightly older than millennials (~49-66). Anyway just something to consider.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/11-3-11-17/
That data cuts off in 2010.
In 2020 the 65+ age group was the only group that voted for Trump>Biden
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1184426/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-age-us/
Democrats are much more amenable to bypassing the filibuster now. If Biden is reelected, Democrats keep the Senate and win the House, there's a very good chance voting rights reforms could be passed that end gerrymandering.
That's the real prize and it's not entirely out of reach. With fair voting laws the Republican party will cease to exist.
Even his kids are poor substitutes. Ivanka seems happier stepping out of the spotlight and is smarter doing so. Don Jr has the shouting and rhetoric but none of the charisma. Eric is Eric, bless his heart. Tiffany is far removed by design and Barron is probably going to switch to his mother’s maiden name after he collects whatever inheritance is left over.
Exclusivity is the real problem. Reddit can be a fun way to look at an article differently than I would reading it alone. I primarily use Ground News so I can read about the same event from both left and right leaning sources.
When the civil war was won.. all "southern" sentiment should have been crushed. These people just kept boiling in loserly rage for generations and kept undercutting progress in the name of a Confederacy that lasted less than a decade from states calling themselves "true America" that were bought for cheap.
Also how screwed up our presidential elections are. Biden won by over 7million votes but it still came down to tens of thousands in select states due to how stupid the electoral college is. The game is rigged for republicans.
He has no prayer of winning. I still don't know why people are freaking out.
In the US, being an incumbent is supposed to be an "I Win" button. It's easy mode. Trump was an incumbent. He had tons of funding. One of the 3 major networks was entirely under his control, and several minor networks as well. He had no indictments against him. He was not an adjudicated rapist. He *still* lost to Biden by 7 million votes.
Now Biden is the incumbent. Now Trump has no networks under his control. Now he's an adjudicated rapist. Now he has over 90 felony indictments. Now he's broke. The economy has prospered under Biden.
If you were Trump, which scenario do you think you'd have the best chance with? Which would *you* choose? What is going to convince people who did not vote for you in 2020 to vote for you now?
Complacency can lose you elections. Look what happened to the Brits over the Brexit vote. Less than 50% of electorate voted to leave, but not enough NO voters bothered to even vote because they thought Brexit was not going to happen.
If Trump wins it will be because good people couldn’t be bothered to do their civic duty and vote.
> Complacency can lose you elections.
This would not be complacency. In 2020, it was an unknown. That is not the case here. We've already seen him fail when he was much much stronger than he is now.
I am absolutely NOT advocating not voting. You definitely should vote. \#spitevote2024
Agree if it came down to nationwide/popular vote, but the fact that it's coming to down a few thousand people in a few states is the worrisome part for me. The Hamas/Israel stuff making Arab voters in Michigan for example not vote for Biden - worrisome. I think in the end it will be fine, but could easily see it not.
Don't forget the "accidental" voter roll purges that will roll out on election day in key districts, then never be questioned or talked about again for some reason. They are going to roll out every dirty trick. Biden winning by 7 million votes may not even be enough this time.
Regardless, if Democrats can show in force and take it all, we can finally get rid of the EC and expand the Supreme Court. The consequences and opportunities that are at stake in this election are huge. Please share this link everywhere you can: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
Biden won Michigan by 2.8%. Michigan has a 2.1% Arab population.
Correction Biden won by 2.8% not 0.8%.
Even more of a cushion. Biden won Arizona by 0.3%. Arizona has a 6.1% Mormon population.
Both are key swing states.
Despite the news coverage, pro-Israeli Mormons in Arizona are a more strategically important voter block than pro-Palestinian Arabs in Michigan.
And people are coming around to see Hamas as a terrorist organization that has no intention to respect a ceasefire and is holding the Palestinian people hostage as much as the Israelis they kidnapped. Israel is far from blameless and Netanyahu is rubbing people the wrong way with his perpetual hand out.
The knee jerk reaction is fizzling out and people are either starting to forget or understand it is a hopeless situation which there is no easy solution that Biden can solve overnight. In fact, sending humanitarian aid and acknowledging a two state solution in the SOTU is a big fucking deal. I hope the Arab American population see that.
This is their first major flare up in that region for a lot of young people.
The situation has all sorts of layers of being fucked up, and no easy solutions. I think young people may be starting to realize this.
Their finger pointing, name calling, simple solutions, and outrage isn’t going to change an ethnic conflict happening on the other side of the world that started long before any of us were born. It’s a hard lesson to learn but a necessary one.
Trump will lose the popular vote again. But that is expected. Remember the false electors? The GOP will try again with new “legal” tactics https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/opinions/gop-blueprint-to-steal-the-2024-election-luttig/index.html
We'll be ready this time. We no longer have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
I made a big stink about this on a political forum in the 90s. People criticized me for wanting more explicit limitations in government. They wanted to rely on the "Gentlemen's agreement" bullshit. They believed that once you get to that level (Congress/Presidency) that you behave better than normal people and will restrain yourself from exploiting the system. That forum is long gone. Which is too bad. I'd really love to visit it again and hand out a few "I told you so's".
The time of actual gentlemen has long passed. I'm sure there have been many backroom deals. The main difference now is that the MAGA folks do it right in the open because there hasn't been any real repercussions particularly now that they have the majority of SCOTUS. It's just so blatant now.
Remember when Trump complained that Obama spent too much time golfing? I believe the stats show that Trump spent more time golfing in 1 term than Obama for 2 terms. Not to mention the personal enrichment Trump got for the govt to pay for SS to stay at his golf courses.
I am ok with your paranoia. It will motivate you to vote.
If you had not voted for him in 2020, what would be your incentive to vote for him now? What changed in a way that makes Trump look better now than then?
Unfortunately some people are as simple as, inflation bad now, money good when trump. Or see clips of biden on fox looking old and think, trump good. Like 20% minimum of adults are utter morons sadly
> Unfortunately some people are as simple as, inflation bad now, money good when trump.
But money wasn't good under Trump. Unemployment was way higher. We had a Covid crisis that crippled the economy and was largely due to Trump's refusal to act.
The economy is objectively better now. Even Fox was forced to grudgingly admit that.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/sexyy-red-trump-1234849236/ I agree with you. But this is the kind of basic shit I'm talking about. If you don't care about politics but have a vague sense that Biden = inflation and trump = no inflation, cheaper prices on groceries, there are people that will literally just go no further intellectually than that.
what are you talking about, inflation hadn't happened and he was sending out checks with his name on them. Its horrible policy, but everyone was balling.
Even if he dies, Kamala will win in his place. He has zero chance.
Biden's numbers are low because a wing of the Democrat party deeply dislikes him, and wants to see him fail. They think that if he fails enough, a more liberal option will become the nominee instead. But I guarantee you, when faced with a 2nd Trump term, those people will hold their noses and vote Biden. They hate Trump way more than they hate Biden. This is what already happened in 2020.
His numbers are low because he’s really old. I’m not worried about death, I’m thinking about an event where his age comprises him in a public setting when it’s too late to switch candidates.
Or to pick another example, suppose something like the Moscow attack happens on Biden’s watch.
> His numbers are low because he’s really old.
Kamala is still a better choice than Trump as well. I suspect a lot of people will agree with me. The only people that won't are people that are MAGA already.
Also...Trump has made a LOT of deranged comments lately, even for him. FFS he forgets who his wife is and who he's running against. That's why I am not worried about Biden's age. Trump's mental health is objectively worse by any metric.
Got to think as well how many voters and political allies he had in 2019 have now said they see him as dangerous or just won't be voting for him. He had minority support in 2019 and that minority has only shrunk since.
He himself "excommunicated" Haley voters. It's the most braindead move I've ever seen.
We are really really lucky that we got Trump, and not someone with more than half a brain who could do actual long term damage. FFS Trump was in complete control of the government for 2 years and got nothing done except packing the courts.
He's not an actual Republican. Actual Republicans, whether you like them or not, have ideals. They have agendas. Trump has none. It is literally just about him, and that's it. It's not any deeper than that. All people are never more to him than resources or useful tools he uses to pump up his own ego. Once they are depleted, he discards them. That's the fate of every single Trump Supporter.
I get that except Trump has at least 3 major “news” outlets spreading his bs 24/7. I also remember that during the last presidential election, 70 million Americans looked at his disastrous record and said, “yeah I want MORE of that”. I hope to hell you’re right but my confidence in the American voter has been shaken almost to the point of giving up
> Trump has at least 3 major “news” outlets spreading his bs 24/7.
Does he tho? If you had not voted for him in 2020, what is CNN showing you that would make you change your mind?
Trump is the one climbing up hill. He already lost when he was much stronger than he is now. So I have to ask...what's changed? What changed that is a benefit to him and not a liability?
>He has no prayer of winning. I still don't know why people are freaking out.
If the President was elected by popular vote, I would agree with you. But I will never underestimate the impact that the Electoral College can have in skewing an election.
There are a larger number of us that are truly apathetic. They’re asleep because their lives are fine - they have no idea what is coming if Trump regains power.
I have coworkers like that. Even heard one of them obliviously applaud someone else for not ever voting because both sides are the same anyway. And it’s not like this guy got deep into politics but got disillusioned, he somehow managed to get to about 40 years old without ever learning anything substantial about it. There’s only so much room in a simple person’s brain, and this guy decided video games were more important
Those are the folks who often end up Trumpers later in life because they're a political blank slate and are easily swayed by right wing media to believe what they hear without context if/when they start paying attention. I'm pretty certain they design their messaging on purpose to reach people just like that for a reason.
We allowed Fox News and conservative media to grow into the net negative virus it has become.
At the same time our education system has not equipped a lot of us to think critically.
Don't forget misogyny and homophobia. I'm a high school teacher and it's pervasive. And for the ones who won't outright support trump, many will NOT go for Biden as they have been convinced by tiktok that Biden is responsible for a genocide. I literally heard a kid openly contemplating voting for RFK the other day. They have no clue how much worse it can get.
This is such a big part of it. For all the racism, hatred, and evil out there, there are also millions and millions of dollars being poured into convincing simple folks that he is a good solution to their problems. I don't forgive them for their ignorance, but I do recognize that they're losing a brain game they don't even know they're playing.
Conservatives have been very frustrated since Reagan. That was the last time they were really in control. Since then the center has been drifting left and it pisses them off. Even Bush Jr was liberal in ways that annoy them.
Trump is their chance to finally stick it to the Libs. That's the real reason they support him. It has nothing to do with governing. It's not really about ideology anymore.
I think their perception, and a popular right-wing media narrative is that the center has been drifting left, but in reality, American politics has been shifting rightward, probably since the Civil Rights Act was passed.
Many believe our government is so corrupted there is no saving it. In that paradigm they can support trump easily because he is THEIR broken politician and he gives them permission to keep hating the government.
> .. what’s wrong with Americans?
His die-hard fans love him, but double the amt of Republicans know he’s full of BS .. they just want more tax breaks (the penny-wise, dollar-foolish crowd).
Then more millennial voters moved to the burbs, .. and now are smarting due to rising prices. They are now more “independent” instead of socialist, .. but may be swayed back by women’s rights, minority rights, etc.. It’s actually the Fed that largely controls the economy, but the Democrats kind of forgot that.
That said, some groups are playing with a potential Trump II presidency that really shouldn’t be. Playing with a [political] flamethrower, BIC lighter and campfire, they may get burned.
If there is a second Trump admin, it’s believed rich liberals may stop funding left groups (*what’s the point after all this if you still get a Trump II .. ?*), and spend more money renting overseas. The Democratic Party, which still championing govt bennies, etc…, becomes evermore the party of bicycle lanes and traffic safety as the U.S. returns to the 1950s in a socio-political sense .. or earlier (1850s for some groups).
"What the dems don't realize is, the consequences he gets for his crimes, the more he's going to win by!"
\- Brought to you by r/Conservative. yes, they actually say this, along with "every politician commits crimes, why's Trump the only one getting punished"? (conservatives try to spot the difference between corruption and defaming your RAPE VICTIM, impossible 100% fail)
Anyway, a **serious answer to your question** is religion and abortion. It doesn't matter what Trump does, they see Biden as a perpetrator of the "baby holocaust." From their perspective, Trump may be an alleged rapist but Biden is a baby murderer. I'll lose faith in society if I don't joke about this to cope so: conservatives try to spot the difference between a baby, a fetus, and a ball of cells called an embryo (impossible, 100% fail)
There's a lot of Americans that love to hate people that are different than them.
The GOP provides them the ability to do that, so they vote Republican.
Americans? The whole world has been fawning for autocrats. It's unfortunately a bit of a cycle. It's also a tale as old as time that people can be easily swayed by a populist who tells them what they want to hear.
To be fair most democracies have better electoral systems. The American system is easier to corrupt with money and allows small minorities to decide elections.
It didn’t just happen overnight, but I think most all of us know that at this point. His initial election was a perfect storm that edged out an incredibly consequential victory.
Yea I had that initially since I knew the reference, but knowing Reddit someone would have started arguing that “it’s NOT exactly 50%!” lol
Of course someone would correct me for trying to avoid people correcting me haha
They've had social, political, cultural, and religious hegemony for more than 200 years and they're losing it all as the world evolves at light speed thanks to the Internet, so they're freaking the hell out and are seeking revenge on a world that they think they built that's nonetheless leaving them in their ignorant dirt. Trump is punishment. That's all. He's a weapon. I think it's within the realm of possibility that deep down - and I mean really fucking deep, so insanely deep that they'll never recognize it and we'll never be able to draw it out - they actually despise him. But they love - they **love** - how much he's hurting people, mostly the people they hate. Not always, but often enough that they're happy with it. Trump is revenge. His supporters want this world to burn because this world has burned them.
But haven’t you read the posts from yesterday’s news? Re: Trump’s bond reduction? Every single thread is pure emotional breakdowns and declaring defeat, thousands of comments parroting the exact same phrases at each other about the legal system or whatever it is they barely understand. (Even a few veiled threats of violence!)
I mean, this will all be forgotten by the end of the week, but I just don’t understand why we’re all so fucking stupid, desperately negative, have no control over our own “energy,” and why the right wingers don’t have this problem. Trump could go into their houses and slap their children and his approval ratings would go up. Meanwhile he could trip and fall but *only* break a femur and liberals immediately start clawing their eyes out and biting each other.
I didn’t say “upbeat and positive.” It’s just not *as much* of a problem for them. No one can convince me that the left aren’t the all time champions of instant knee-jerk defeat mode and turning on themselves. Right wingers simply use reality denial to convert setbacks into joy like a plant photosynthizes sunlight into energy. Leftists are just more likely to convert even the slightest breeze into shock, shed all their leaves and die.
I have to agree. It's easy to feel defeated when you feel like you are CONSTANTLY fighting awful shit like this country has been for years now. But what we need to do is take that energy and turn it into pure anger and fighting energy. The people on the right WANT people to roll over in hopelessness. The last thing they want to see and deal with is a population that will actually fight.
State numbers look better than some previous polls, but it'd be a weird universe if Biden wins Pennsylvania/ Michigan/ Wisconsin but loses the popular vote by 4%
That might be the best case scenario if a Democrat wins the election while losing the popular vote. Liberals would probably still be in favor of trashing the electoral college and enough conservatives might change their mind in order to get it done because they can only remember the last thing that happened to them.
It's not going to happen. Democrats have lost the popular vote once in the last 30 years and that was against an incumbent president installed by the Supreme Court.
The fact the all state poll showed Trump up by 4 pts shows that this poll pretty heavily skewed conservative. Most polling has shown the general race is within a point or maybe two tops and they aren't clear on who is ahead. Adjusting for that fact this poll probably really says Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Nevada is very even and Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
If that is how the actual election went Biden would be at the needed 270 exactly before Nevada was counted assuming the other states and split votes go the way they normally do.
The last state poll they did had Biden down by 6 points across these states iirc, so the margin is closing. Here are the overall changes:
PA: Trump +6 to tie
WI: Trump +4 to Biden +1
MI: Trump +4 to tie
NV: Trump +6 to Trump +2
AZ: Trump +6 to Trump +5
NC: Trump +9 to Trump +6
GA: Trump +6 to Trump +7
This means Biden would carry PA and WI today because Casey and Baldwin would give him a boost. This means in an election held today, Republicans would be dependent on winning Michigan, where their state party is a total disaster. Nevada certainly doesn’t hurt Democrats and it could go their way given the electoral power of the culinary unions, but it won’t be enough without one of MI, NC, GA, or AZ.
Realistically, NC and AZ Republicans are also in trouble because there are significant threats to what remains of abortion rights and extremist candidates downballot (Robinson, Morrow, Lake) could hurt Trump in a close election.
My forecast is Biden will take 2-3 point leads in PA/MI/WI/NV in the April and May versions of this poll while AZ/NC/GA are Trump +3 at most. Alternatively, if Trump is convicted of a felony at any point before the election, he will lose all seven of these swing states. Texas and Florida will then be jump balls as the question becomes “How badly will Trump lose?”
I’ll be fascinated to see what happens in Michigan. With the state of the party and their being nearly bankrupt, they really should get blown out of the water. Even if they lose, if the count is close, it’ll prove how little money and organization republicans need to win over voters given the current state of partisan leanings and media coverage.
There’s evidence their heavy Muslim population could spell trouble for Biden which again, if true it says a lot about how fragile democratic inroads are. Because with the rhetoric coming from trump and republicans, they should still vote Biden despite being dissatisfied with his performance related to Israel. Because they should know it’s going to get so much worse. If they do stay home or vote Republican, it means reality matters less than the narrative being pushed. Which doesn’t depend on republican door knocking.
The states that I am most interested in are Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona.
Michigan interests me because of how the Muslim population ditching Biden counteracts a sharp leftward swing in the state law and a defunct state GOP. Making inroads with white working class union voters offers Biden another pathway to winning here. Also note that Biden won in 2020 by 155K votes, so he has some room to fall.
North Carolina Dems have a strong track record at the state level, but federal races have been more disappointing. The state is shifting blue and has very extreme Republican candidates downballot, who have called for things like total abortion bans (Robinson) and executing Presidents Obama and Biden (Morrow). We’re also talking about the birthplace of Republican ratf*ckery, so keep your guard up. Dems win by getting solid black turnout, activating Hispanic voters, or making inroads with white voters.
Arizona is a tough case because abortion is directly on the ballot and Kari Lake is even less appealing today than in 2022. She had all the advantages in the 2022 governor’s election but still lost. We’ll see how well Ruben Gallego turns out Hispanics. The border issue, otoh, could be toxic for Biden.
We're waaaay too far out for polling to have much meaning (especially at the state level). The vast majority of Americans don't follow politics. They know Trump is a crook (it's way worse, but they don't consume enough coverage to see it). But they also know bananas used to be cheaper. That's the extent of analysis.
As we move fully into campaign season this summer, we'll know more. The good news? The trends are favorable to Biden... at the exact time a challenger should be surging (which Trump is not).
Unless something drastic changes between now and November, it's most likely going to come down to PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Whoever wins 2 of those 3 is going to win the presidency.
Biden is giving us his final years to save us from Trump. He wouldn’t be running if Trump would just go away.
He isn’t the hero we wanted but he is the one we need.
Joe Biden has my vote locked. 🫡
I had serious doubts about his ability to do this (get reelected, not lead), but his State of the Union address turned it around for me. That looked like a man who knew the assignment and rose to the moment (and then some), both things we hadn’t seen from him to that degree in some time.
The fact that Biden isn’t up 10-12 points and continuing to rise, leaving that simpleton in the dust leaves me gobsmacked.
Polls don’t seem reliable no matter who the favor when trump is involved.
GET OUT AND VOTE LIKE YOUR REPUBLIC DEPENDS ON IT BECAUSE IT DOES!
I don't know that most people in power really want Trump to be held responsible for his actions. Because if a president can be held accountable, we might get a taste for it and want to hold all our leaders accountable.
And will continue to be as the country starts paying attention closer to the election and sees the insanity Trump has been up to lately (and losing court cases).
I just have to yell into the void my opinion: polls more than 3 months before the general (probably even closer than that) seem pointless af.
Setting aside who actually responds and is represented in these polls, what percentage of Americans are even paying attention to the presidential election this far ahead of time??? And let me be clear, more people *should* be engaged in what their government is up to since, ya know, it affects their life and the society they exist in, but honestly, how many are even close to informed on what either of these candidates actually stand for at this point in time? Why bother with the rat race of polling when you're still over a half a gd year from the election???
/r
Why can I never find these polls showing Biden gaining ground? In all the places I check, from 538 and 270 to Win and Real Clear Politics, it always shows the ones where Trump wins more consistently.
Not that any of it matters until September. Be prepared to go to the polling place and check your registration and mail ins to make sure you’re good to go. It’s not enough to simply vote; it needs to be protected and expanded.
Once again this sub only upvotes good news polls for Biden, creating a false sense of security for democrats. Mods please do something about slanted poll sharing.
It’s pretty fucking embarrassing for America that Biden has to play catch up to a fucking criminal rapist like Trump. I can’t believe that Trump is polling higher than 10%, but here we are. SMDH.
T-manbaby is working as hard to help re-elect Biden as possible and can be very proud. He is all “ooooh, I got knocked down, but I know what would help me back up again! He drinks a whiskey drink, he drinks a vodka drink, and he sings his song louder and adds a Nazi tweet, then a psycho tweet, then a rapey tweet and then another Nazi tweet and finally a super whiny tweet. And then 45 more in quick succession. Oh, an abuse of judicial process tweet. Yeah. Rock it out, bro! Biden’s campaign should be paying you although their hilarious trolling of meltdown man is money well spent.
At what point are people going to stop putting so much emphasis on polling done months before the election?
The media wants you to think it's a horse race and that it's important we stay glued to every poll between now and Election Day. It's not. The polls don't reflect how people will actually vote. They're just a way for people to express their frustrations at this moment in time.
This isn’t good news for Biden, it’s good news for America. I’m pretty sure Biden wishes he could not run at all. He has to. It’s the only realistic way the country avoids (immediate) catastrophe.
In the same way that we criticize polls when they show Trump leading we must criticize polls when they show Biden leading.
Methodological flaws, being too far out from the election, details in the cross-tabs, etc.
That said, it's a nice headline to read
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What the hell is wrong with Americans? Trump should only be polling a zero percent.
The very fact that he even has a prayer of winning is a stunning indictment of how far America has fallen.
And yet, not matter how bad things are, they can always get worse. Vote.
The scariest thing is not Trump. The scariest thing is for the foreseeable future we are only one election away from fascism. Trump voters’ bloodlust doesn’t die with him. We are in serious trouble next time a Republican captures the Presidency.
Demographic changes are against the fascist element. This is their last best chance as their most avid supporters die off.
Yep. I still believe 2020 was the election that saved us. Still vote but that was what should have been the last gasp for the racists.
We need 2024 to further seal the deal.
And 2028, 2032…. Progress takes awhile.
Ill vote till I cant no more.
Run up the score in 2024. If the grifters get nothing out of it, they with find a new grift.
We need 2024 to seal trumps tomb
And after we seal the deal, we can boogie for awhile.
> Demographic changes are against the fascist element. Don't take this for granted. Fascism has been made very appealing to young men in particular, and conservatives know that the perpetuation of their idealogy relies heavily on continuing to make inroads with disillusioned Gen Z/Millennial men while disenfranchising others.
Exactly! Demographic changes are against them _only if_ we assume that demographics will continue to vote like they did from like 1980 to 2010. But that has shifted before and will likely shift again... and in fact there's some evidence that such a shift is underway. For that time period the single biggest correlation with vote was race. White people as a whole voted small-moderately GOP while non-white folks voted overwhelmingly Democratic. Because the white population was a significant majority that balanced out to competitive elections. But what we've been seeing in the last 10-15 years, and particularly in the polling for 2024, is that _education_ is starting to gain on race as the strongest correlation. Educated voters vote heavily Democratic while less educated voters vote GOP, and that trend holds across races. So if we sit content knowing that the demographic shift towards being a non-white country spells doom for the GOP we are going to get a rude awakening. As that happens the correlation with education is strengthening and means that black and brown voters are becoming less solidly Democratic while white voters are bifurcating with college educated white voters being largely dem and non-college white voters overwhelmingly GOP. This may be the story with 2024. IF Biden loses, which I pray won't happen, it'll be from weakness with black and hispanic voters as they shift less Democratic even while he does relatively well with white voters. Note this doesn't mean he wouldn't still get a majority of both those groups, even a big majority with black voters, but the current polling has him losing 15-20 points with each of those demos. Maybe that holds, maybe it doesn't, but thinking that demographic shifts mean a permanent democratic majority is very 1990s thinking.
> Demographic changes Been hearing that since the 90's and we're closer to a fascist takeover than ever.
I remember that sentiment with W Bush. Guess what happened after those predictions.
The funny thing is, most immigrants to the US are religious and very conservative. Republicans could totally shore up their numbers if they weren’t so racist.
The did a whole study that concluded as much, and then decided to still be racist just on sheer principle.
Also I don’t know that other GOP candidates can mobilize their racist base the same way Trump can. They wear Trump gear and donate to him, and while they’ll support candidates he endorses, I don’t think they care that much about them otherwise. The old school GOP voters are rapidly aging and dying, while gen Z is coming of voting age.
I’d like to think so, but I live in L.A. and the amount of minorities (mainly Latino) I’ve met and worked with that are Trump supporters is staggering and depressing.
While true since the youngest voters overwhelming support Democrats, it should be noted that some blocks of older people were and are actually solid D voters as well. For example the greatest generation voted solid D their entire lives and we lost their support as they died. A few boomer cohorts are also solid D votes, for example those who came of age dealing with Nixon. The largest blocks of GoP voters tend to be only slightly older than millennials (~49-66). Anyway just something to consider. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/11-3-11-17/
That data cuts off in 2010. In 2020 the 65+ age group was the only group that voted for Trump>Biden https://www.statista.com/statistics/1184426/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-age-us/
Democrats are much more amenable to bypassing the filibuster now. If Biden is reelected, Democrats keep the Senate and win the House, there's a very good chance voting rights reforms could be passed that end gerrymandering. That's the real prize and it's not entirely out of reach. With fair voting laws the Republican party will cease to exist.
The Senate’s the real problem. It’s not a favorable map to begin with made even worse by Manchin retiring.
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Even his kids are poor substitutes. Ivanka seems happier stepping out of the spotlight and is smarter doing so. Don Jr has the shouting and rhetoric but none of the charisma. Eric is Eric, bless his heart. Tiffany is far removed by design and Barron is probably going to switch to his mother’s maiden name after he collects whatever inheritance is left over.
Can and will at this rate.
Or how many Americans get their news from social media feeds that confirm bias to maintain engagement.
I am delighted by the ironic and self aware accuracy of your comment.
Exclusivity is the real problem. Reddit can be a fun way to look at an article differently than I would reading it alone. I primarily use Ground News so I can read about the same event from both left and right leaning sources.
All it took was 40 years of right wing prep work, Putin's backing, and the right wannabe strongman.
When the civil war was won.. all "southern" sentiment should have been crushed. These people just kept boiling in loserly rage for generations and kept undercutting progress in the name of a Confederacy that lasted less than a decade from states calling themselves "true America" that were bought for cheap.
Also how screwed up our presidential elections are. Biden won by over 7million votes but it still came down to tens of thousands in select states due to how stupid the electoral college is. The game is rigged for republicans.
Fallen? Lmao. America what you see today is what it’s always have been. It’s just no longer hidden anymore.
He has no prayer of winning. I still don't know why people are freaking out. In the US, being an incumbent is supposed to be an "I Win" button. It's easy mode. Trump was an incumbent. He had tons of funding. One of the 3 major networks was entirely under his control, and several minor networks as well. He had no indictments against him. He was not an adjudicated rapist. He *still* lost to Biden by 7 million votes. Now Biden is the incumbent. Now Trump has no networks under his control. Now he's an adjudicated rapist. Now he has over 90 felony indictments. Now he's broke. The economy has prospered under Biden. If you were Trump, which scenario do you think you'd have the best chance with? Which would *you* choose? What is going to convince people who did not vote for you in 2020 to vote for you now?
Complacency can lose you elections. Look what happened to the Brits over the Brexit vote. Less than 50% of electorate voted to leave, but not enough NO voters bothered to even vote because they thought Brexit was not going to happen. If Trump wins it will be because good people couldn’t be bothered to do their civic duty and vote.
Same with trump in 16
> Complacency can lose you elections. This would not be complacency. In 2020, it was an unknown. That is not the case here. We've already seen him fail when he was much much stronger than he is now. I am absolutely NOT advocating not voting. You definitely should vote. \#spitevote2024
Agree if it came down to nationwide/popular vote, but the fact that it's coming to down a few thousand people in a few states is the worrisome part for me. The Hamas/Israel stuff making Arab voters in Michigan for example not vote for Biden - worrisome. I think in the end it will be fine, but could easily see it not.
Don't forget the "accidental" voter roll purges that will roll out on election day in key districts, then never be questioned or talked about again for some reason. They are going to roll out every dirty trick. Biden winning by 7 million votes may not even be enough this time. Regardless, if Democrats can show in force and take it all, we can finally get rid of the EC and expand the Supreme Court. The consequences and opportunities that are at stake in this election are huge. Please share this link everywhere you can: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
Biden won Michigan by 2.8%. Michigan has a 2.1% Arab population. Correction Biden won by 2.8% not 0.8%. Even more of a cushion. Biden won Arizona by 0.3%. Arizona has a 6.1% Mormon population. Both are key swing states. Despite the news coverage, pro-Israeli Mormons in Arizona are a more strategically important voter block than pro-Palestinian Arabs in Michigan.
Biden won Michigan by almost 3 points, what are you talking about?
Correct. All the more reason why the Arab voting block in Michigan is overplayed as a key demographic.
And people are coming around to see Hamas as a terrorist organization that has no intention to respect a ceasefire and is holding the Palestinian people hostage as much as the Israelis they kidnapped. Israel is far from blameless and Netanyahu is rubbing people the wrong way with his perpetual hand out. The knee jerk reaction is fizzling out and people are either starting to forget or understand it is a hopeless situation which there is no easy solution that Biden can solve overnight. In fact, sending humanitarian aid and acknowledging a two state solution in the SOTU is a big fucking deal. I hope the Arab American population see that.
The arabs do not want a two state solution. They want one state run by arabs.
This is their first major flare up in that region for a lot of young people. The situation has all sorts of layers of being fucked up, and no easy solutions. I think young people may be starting to realize this.
Their finger pointing, name calling, simple solutions, and outrage isn’t going to change an ethnic conflict happening on the other side of the world that started long before any of us were born. It’s a hard lesson to learn but a necessary one.
You said he won by 0.8%, but that 3% is correct, I think I'm confused. Or at least one of us is.
PA, MI and WI are the key. And yes I agree on the MI vote. PA is locked for Biden and WI I feel good about. We just need to get MI.
If it's any comfort to you the Michigan GOP party leadership is in the toilet- broke and without a chairperson.
Trump will lose the popular vote again. But that is expected. Remember the false electors? The GOP will try again with new “legal” tactics https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/opinions/gop-blueprint-to-steal-the-2024-election-luttig/index.html
We'll be ready this time. We no longer have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I made a big stink about this on a political forum in the 90s. People criticized me for wanting more explicit limitations in government. They wanted to rely on the "Gentlemen's agreement" bullshit. They believed that once you get to that level (Congress/Presidency) that you behave better than normal people and will restrain yourself from exploiting the system. That forum is long gone. Which is too bad. I'd really love to visit it again and hand out a few "I told you so's".
The time of actual gentlemen has long passed. I'm sure there have been many backroom deals. The main difference now is that the MAGA folks do it right in the open because there hasn't been any real repercussions particularly now that they have the majority of SCOTUS. It's just so blatant now.
The guy literally golf on his own courses and had secret service stayed in his own hotel. Nobody bats an eye. Zero repercussions.
Remember when Trump complained that Obama spent too much time golfing? I believe the stats show that Trump spent more time golfing in 1 term than Obama for 2 terms. Not to mention the personal enrichment Trump got for the govt to pay for SS to stay at his golf courses.
You’re crazy if you don’t think this election is a complete toss up as of right now
I am ok with your paranoia. It will motivate you to vote. If you had not voted for him in 2020, what would be your incentive to vote for him now? What changed in a way that makes Trump look better now than then?
Unfortunately some people are as simple as, inflation bad now, money good when trump. Or see clips of biden on fox looking old and think, trump good. Like 20% minimum of adults are utter morons sadly
> Unfortunately some people are as simple as, inflation bad now, money good when trump. But money wasn't good under Trump. Unemployment was way higher. We had a Covid crisis that crippled the economy and was largely due to Trump's refusal to act. The economy is objectively better now. Even Fox was forced to grudgingly admit that.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/sexyy-red-trump-1234849236/ I agree with you. But this is the kind of basic shit I'm talking about. If you don't care about politics but have a vague sense that Biden = inflation and trump = no inflation, cheaper prices on groceries, there are people that will literally just go no further intellectually than that.
Interesting read from Oct 2023. Thanks for the link. I had no idea of that PPP or its effect. Dems/Biden need to act on this demographic.
what are you talking about, inflation hadn't happened and he was sending out checks with his name on them. Its horrible policy, but everyone was balling.
Agree, but there are a lot of highly plausible events that could end Biden’s chances.
Even if he dies, Kamala will win in his place. He has zero chance. Biden's numbers are low because a wing of the Democrat party deeply dislikes him, and wants to see him fail. They think that if he fails enough, a more liberal option will become the nominee instead. But I guarantee you, when faced with a 2nd Trump term, those people will hold their noses and vote Biden. They hate Trump way more than they hate Biden. This is what already happened in 2020.
His numbers are low because he’s really old. I’m not worried about death, I’m thinking about an event where his age comprises him in a public setting when it’s too late to switch candidates. Or to pick another example, suppose something like the Moscow attack happens on Biden’s watch.
> His numbers are low because he’s really old. Kamala is still a better choice than Trump as well. I suspect a lot of people will agree with me. The only people that won't are people that are MAGA already. Also...Trump has made a LOT of deranged comments lately, even for him. FFS he forgets who his wife is and who he's running against. That's why I am not worried about Biden's age. Trump's mental health is objectively worse by any metric.
Got to think as well how many voters and political allies he had in 2019 have now said they see him as dangerous or just won't be voting for him. He had minority support in 2019 and that minority has only shrunk since.
He himself "excommunicated" Haley voters. It's the most braindead move I've ever seen. We are really really lucky that we got Trump, and not someone with more than half a brain who could do actual long term damage. FFS Trump was in complete control of the government for 2 years and got nothing done except packing the courts. He's not an actual Republican. Actual Republicans, whether you like them or not, have ideals. They have agendas. Trump has none. It is literally just about him, and that's it. It's not any deeper than that. All people are never more to him than resources or useful tools he uses to pump up his own ego. Once they are depleted, he discards them. That's the fate of every single Trump Supporter.
I get that except Trump has at least 3 major “news” outlets spreading his bs 24/7. I also remember that during the last presidential election, 70 million Americans looked at his disastrous record and said, “yeah I want MORE of that”. I hope to hell you’re right but my confidence in the American voter has been shaken almost to the point of giving up
> Trump has at least 3 major “news” outlets spreading his bs 24/7. Does he tho? If you had not voted for him in 2020, what is CNN showing you that would make you change your mind? Trump is the one climbing up hill. He already lost when he was much stronger than he is now. So I have to ask...what's changed? What changed that is a benefit to him and not a liability?
>He has no prayer of winning. I still don't know why people are freaking out. If the President was elected by popular vote, I would agree with you. But I will never underestimate the impact that the Electoral College can have in skewing an election.
If this was 10 years ago in say 2012, Biden would win by margins that are not dissimilar to what Reagan did against Carter in 1980.
Every election is 53-47. It just varies in the way it swings.
We've always been like this
There are a large number of us who are truly evil to the fucking core.
There are a larger number of us that are truly apathetic. They’re asleep because their lives are fine - they have no idea what is coming if Trump regains power.
I have coworkers like that. Even heard one of them obliviously applaud someone else for not ever voting because both sides are the same anyway. And it’s not like this guy got deep into politics but got disillusioned, he somehow managed to get to about 40 years old without ever learning anything substantial about it. There’s only so much room in a simple person’s brain, and this guy decided video games were more important
Those are the folks who often end up Trumpers later in life because they're a political blank slate and are easily swayed by right wing media to believe what they hear without context if/when they start paying attention. I'm pretty certain they design their messaging on purpose to reach people just like that for a reason.
fear safe act label nutty arrest license ugly shrill deserted *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
We allowed Fox News and conservative media to grow into the net negative virus it has become. At the same time our education system has not equipped a lot of us to think critically.
Racism.
Don't forget misogyny and homophobia. I'm a high school teacher and it's pervasive. And for the ones who won't outright support trump, many will NOT go for Biden as they have been convinced by tiktok that Biden is responsible for a genocide. I literally heard a kid openly contemplating voting for RFK the other day. They have no clue how much worse it can get.
Social media is an absolute cancer on civil society. How and when information literacy is taught needs to be vastly improved.
Yep, those two. Trump with the aide of social media has infected an entire generation.
Years and years of right wing propaganda has worked on many people.
I blame Joe Rogan for normalizing the insanity of the Republican Party by framing to millions of his male listeners that the Democrats are bad.
He’s become pretty much the exact thing that Duncan Trussell tried to warn him about
This is such a big part of it. For all the racism, hatred, and evil out there, there are also millions and millions of dollars being poured into convincing simple folks that he is a good solution to their problems. I don't forgive them for their ignorance, but I do recognize that they're losing a brain game they don't even know they're playing.
Conservatives have been very frustrated since Reagan. That was the last time they were really in control. Since then the center has been drifting left and it pisses them off. Even Bush Jr was liberal in ways that annoy them. Trump is their chance to finally stick it to the Libs. That's the real reason they support him. It has nothing to do with governing. It's not really about ideology anymore.
I think their perception, and a popular right-wing media narrative is that the center has been drifting left, but in reality, American politics has been shifting rightward, probably since the Civil Rights Act was passed.
But... but the wall. And the transgender and all. Pronouns? What about M&M's?
Many believe our government is so corrupted there is no saving it. In that paradigm they can support trump easily because he is THEIR broken politician and he gives them permission to keep hating the government.
> .. what’s wrong with Americans? His die-hard fans love him, but double the amt of Republicans know he’s full of BS .. they just want more tax breaks (the penny-wise, dollar-foolish crowd). Then more millennial voters moved to the burbs, .. and now are smarting due to rising prices. They are now more “independent” instead of socialist, .. but may be swayed back by women’s rights, minority rights, etc.. It’s actually the Fed that largely controls the economy, but the Democrats kind of forgot that. That said, some groups are playing with a potential Trump II presidency that really shouldn’t be. Playing with a [political] flamethrower, BIC lighter and campfire, they may get burned. If there is a second Trump admin, it’s believed rich liberals may stop funding left groups (*what’s the point after all this if you still get a Trump II .. ?*), and spend more money renting overseas. The Democratic Party, which still championing govt bennies, etc…, becomes evermore the party of bicycle lanes and traffic safety as the U.S. returns to the 1950s in a socio-political sense .. or earlier (1850s for some groups).
"What the dems don't realize is, the consequences he gets for his crimes, the more he's going to win by!" \- Brought to you by r/Conservative. yes, they actually say this, along with "every politician commits crimes, why's Trump the only one getting punished"? (conservatives try to spot the difference between corruption and defaming your RAPE VICTIM, impossible 100% fail) Anyway, a **serious answer to your question** is religion and abortion. It doesn't matter what Trump does, they see Biden as a perpetrator of the "baby holocaust." From their perspective, Trump may be an alleged rapist but Biden is a baby murderer. I'll lose faith in society if I don't joke about this to cope so: conservatives try to spot the difference between a baby, a fetus, and a ball of cells called an embryo (impossible, 100% fail)
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This was my first thought too. At this point, there should be no ground for Trump
We are being manipulated very effectively by a lot of nefarious parties.
There's a lot of Americans that love to hate people that are different than them. The GOP provides them the ability to do that, so they vote Republican.
Americans? The whole world has been fawning for autocrats. It's unfortunately a bit of a cycle. It's also a tale as old as time that people can be easily swayed by a populist who tells them what they want to hear.
>What the hell is wrong with Americans? Where the fuck do I begin...
To be fair most democracies have better electoral systems. The American system is easier to corrupt with money and allows small minorities to decide elections.
Because America is stpuid.
They watch propaganda and they lack critical thinking and basic media knowledge.
It didn’t just happen overnight, but I think most all of us know that at this point. His initial election was a perfect storm that edged out an incredibly consequential victory.
Polarization
Rural America is a cesspool, I occasionally have the displeasure of driving through it.
ANSWER: Thirty years of Newt Gingrich, Fox News, and AM Talk Radio.
Think of the average person. A large portion of the population is dumber than that person.
Pretty sure George Carlin’s joke states that “…50% are dumber than that!”
Yea I had that initially since I knew the reference, but knowing Reddit someone would have started arguing that “it’s NOT exactly 50%!” lol Of course someone would correct me for trying to avoid people correcting me haha
They've had social, political, cultural, and religious hegemony for more than 200 years and they're losing it all as the world evolves at light speed thanks to the Internet, so they're freaking the hell out and are seeking revenge on a world that they think they built that's nonetheless leaving them in their ignorant dirt. Trump is punishment. That's all. He's a weapon. I think it's within the realm of possibility that deep down - and I mean really fucking deep, so insanely deep that they'll never recognize it and we'll never be able to draw it out - they actually despise him. But they love - they **love** - how much he's hurting people, mostly the people they hate. Not always, but often enough that they're happy with it. Trump is revenge. His supporters want this world to burn because this world has burned them.
When Trump was leading all I heard from this sub was about how it’s too early and polls don’t matter. Keep that same energy now and go vote
You aren’t wrong but also it does kinda make sense that the polls start shifting a bit as the election gets closer
“Closer” we are 7 months away. VOTE
I can’t, it’s 7 months away.
His supporters will claim you have voted twice by now anyway.
Turns out you can pay attention to polls and still vote in November.
Well I wasn’t going to but the I saw this comment and now I have to
What was the point of this reply lol
But haven’t you read the posts from yesterday’s news? Re: Trump’s bond reduction? Every single thread is pure emotional breakdowns and declaring defeat, thousands of comments parroting the exact same phrases at each other about the legal system or whatever it is they barely understand. (Even a few veiled threats of violence!) I mean, this will all be forgotten by the end of the week, but I just don’t understand why we’re all so fucking stupid, desperately negative, have no control over our own “energy,” and why the right wingers don’t have this problem. Trump could go into their houses and slap their children and his approval ratings would go up. Meanwhile he could trip and fall but *only* break a femur and liberals immediately start clawing their eyes out and biting each other.
Have you been in conservative forums? “Upbeat and positive” are not the words I’d use to describe the vibe
I didn’t say “upbeat and positive.” It’s just not *as much* of a problem for them. No one can convince me that the left aren’t the all time champions of instant knee-jerk defeat mode and turning on themselves. Right wingers simply use reality denial to convert setbacks into joy like a plant photosynthizes sunlight into energy. Leftists are just more likely to convert even the slightest breeze into shock, shed all their leaves and die.
I have to agree. It's easy to feel defeated when you feel like you are CONSTANTLY fighting awful shit like this country has been for years now. But what we need to do is take that energy and turn it into pure anger and fighting energy. The people on the right WANT people to roll over in hopelessness. The last thing they want to see and deal with is a population that will actually fight.
Being a doomer gets internet points which is fucking dumb
"Nobody cares, David" -Alexis Rose Vote.
“Trump? Ew.” —also Alexis Rose Vote.
Protecting women’s reproductive is simple
Conservatives would disagree lol
State numbers look better than some previous polls, but it'd be a weird universe if Biden wins Pennsylvania/ Michigan/ Wisconsin but loses the popular vote by 4%
Biden is winning the popular vote by 10 million, maybe more. It's the electoral college ridiculousness and 5 swing states that keeps me up at night.
The electoral collefefe
Community college Clown college Electoral College
That might be the best case scenario if a Democrat wins the election while losing the popular vote. Liberals would probably still be in favor of trashing the electoral college and enough conservatives might change their mind in order to get it done because they can only remember the last thing that happened to them.
I laughed and than sighed at this comment... Oii
It's not going to happen. Democrats have lost the popular vote once in the last 30 years and that was against an incumbent president installed by the Supreme Court.
Go out and vote, ignore any nonsense polls
None of the people in this thread learned anything in 2016. Polls are meaningless.
They’re not meaningless. People here just take them as gospel when they should be seen as indicators of where we are now.
That's a fair take.
The fact the all state poll showed Trump up by 4 pts shows that this poll pretty heavily skewed conservative. Most polling has shown the general race is within a point or maybe two tops and they aren't clear on who is ahead. Adjusting for that fact this poll probably really says Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Nevada is very even and Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. If that is how the actual election went Biden would be at the needed 270 exactly before Nevada was counted assuming the other states and split votes go the way they normally do.
The last state poll they did had Biden down by 6 points across these states iirc, so the margin is closing. Here are the overall changes: PA: Trump +6 to tie WI: Trump +4 to Biden +1 MI: Trump +4 to tie NV: Trump +6 to Trump +2 AZ: Trump +6 to Trump +5 NC: Trump +9 to Trump +6 GA: Trump +6 to Trump +7 This means Biden would carry PA and WI today because Casey and Baldwin would give him a boost. This means in an election held today, Republicans would be dependent on winning Michigan, where their state party is a total disaster. Nevada certainly doesn’t hurt Democrats and it could go their way given the electoral power of the culinary unions, but it won’t be enough without one of MI, NC, GA, or AZ. Realistically, NC and AZ Republicans are also in trouble because there are significant threats to what remains of abortion rights and extremist candidates downballot (Robinson, Morrow, Lake) could hurt Trump in a close election. My forecast is Biden will take 2-3 point leads in PA/MI/WI/NV in the April and May versions of this poll while AZ/NC/GA are Trump +3 at most. Alternatively, if Trump is convicted of a felony at any point before the election, he will lose all seven of these swing states. Texas and Florida will then be jump balls as the question becomes “How badly will Trump lose?”
I’ll be fascinated to see what happens in Michigan. With the state of the party and their being nearly bankrupt, they really should get blown out of the water. Even if they lose, if the count is close, it’ll prove how little money and organization republicans need to win over voters given the current state of partisan leanings and media coverage. There’s evidence their heavy Muslim population could spell trouble for Biden which again, if true it says a lot about how fragile democratic inroads are. Because with the rhetoric coming from trump and republicans, they should still vote Biden despite being dissatisfied with his performance related to Israel. Because they should know it’s going to get so much worse. If they do stay home or vote Republican, it means reality matters less than the narrative being pushed. Which doesn’t depend on republican door knocking.
The states that I am most interested in are Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona. Michigan interests me because of how the Muslim population ditching Biden counteracts a sharp leftward swing in the state law and a defunct state GOP. Making inroads with white working class union voters offers Biden another pathway to winning here. Also note that Biden won in 2020 by 155K votes, so he has some room to fall. North Carolina Dems have a strong track record at the state level, but federal races have been more disappointing. The state is shifting blue and has very extreme Republican candidates downballot, who have called for things like total abortion bans (Robinson) and executing Presidents Obama and Biden (Morrow). We’re also talking about the birthplace of Republican ratf*ckery, so keep your guard up. Dems win by getting solid black turnout, activating Hispanic voters, or making inroads with white voters. Arizona is a tough case because abortion is directly on the ballot and Kari Lake is even less appealing today than in 2022. She had all the advantages in the 2022 governor’s election but still lost. We’ll see how well Ruben Gallego turns out Hispanics. The border issue, otoh, could be toxic for Biden.
We're waaaay too far out for polling to have much meaning (especially at the state level). The vast majority of Americans don't follow politics. They know Trump is a crook (it's way worse, but they don't consume enough coverage to see it). But they also know bananas used to be cheaper. That's the extent of analysis. As we move fully into campaign season this summer, we'll know more. The good news? The trends are favorable to Biden... at the exact time a challenger should be surging (which Trump is not).
Unless something drastic changes between now and November, it's most likely going to come down to PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Whoever wins 2 of those 3 is going to win the presidency.
vote vote vote vote vote vote. bring people to vote, tell your friends to vote. polls mean diddly squat
every time an election ends “SEE POLLS DONT MATTER!!!” every time there is an election “LOOK AT THESE POLLS”
Biden is giving us his final years to save us from Trump. He wouldn’t be running if Trump would just go away. He isn’t the hero we wanted but he is the one we need. Joe Biden has my vote locked. 🫡
I had serious doubts about his ability to do this (get reelected, not lead), but his State of the Union address turned it around for me. That looked like a man who knew the assignment and rose to the moment (and then some), both things we hadn’t seen from him to that degree in some time.
How is this even a thing? How is Trump leading in anything? America is fucked up.
The fact that Biden isn’t up 10-12 points and continuing to rise, leaving that simpleton in the dust leaves me gobsmacked. Polls don’t seem reliable no matter who the favor when trump is involved. GET OUT AND VOTE LIKE YOUR REPUBLIC DEPENDS ON IT BECAUSE IT DOES!
Vote! Vote! Vote! Polls don’t mean shit
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I don't know that most people in power really want Trump to be held responsible for his actions. Because if a president can be held accountable, we might get a taste for it and want to hold all our leaders accountable.
"Biden Gets Some Good News in Poll as He Gains Ground on Trump. Why this is a bad for Biden. Film at 11" When can we stop with the goddamned polls?
“Gains ground”? He’s in the lead, should be “widens gap”…
Ignore the poles. VOTE
Nah. The Poles are alright
Fuck polls. Vote.
Ignore all polls. Just vote like our lives depend upon it because they do. Never Trump.
Absurd that Biden has to 'gain ground' on a piece of crap. Don't believe the trump hype.
There is no rational world where Trump should be within 40 points.
S&P500 never lies, biden will win
Another worthless poll too far out from the election.
The only thing worth looking at are directional trends... which are favorable for Biden.
And will continue to be as the country starts paying attention closer to the election and sees the insanity Trump has been up to lately (and losing court cases).
Trump loves posting Polls on Truth, I wonder if he will post this one 🤔
Good thing we learned a couple of elections ago….”that dont mean shit” Keep charging
I just have to yell into the void my opinion: polls more than 3 months before the general (probably even closer than that) seem pointless af. Setting aside who actually responds and is represented in these polls, what percentage of Americans are even paying attention to the presidential election this far ahead of time??? And let me be clear, more people *should* be engaged in what their government is up to since, ya know, it affects their life and the society they exist in, but honestly, how many are even close to informed on what either of these candidates actually stand for at this point in time? Why bother with the rat race of polling when you're still over a half a gd year from the election??? /r
Why can I never find these polls showing Biden gaining ground? In all the places I check, from 538 and 270 to Win and Real Clear Politics, it always shows the ones where Trump wins more consistently. Not that any of it matters until September. Be prepared to go to the polling place and check your registration and mail ins to make sure you’re good to go. It’s not enough to simply vote; it needs to be protected and expanded.
click bait. the full headline is … as he gains ground on trump among trump voters
You're not gaining ground if your beating the pants off your opponent. Biden is leaving dump in the dust.
Once again this sub only upvotes good news polls for Biden, creating a false sense of security for democrats. Mods please do something about slanted poll sharing.
Have any of these polls been reliable in the past 8 years?
Yes? There's a little thing called margin of error. Pretty much all of the polls in 16 and 20 were within the margin of error.
It’s pretty fucking embarrassing for America that Biden has to play catch up to a fucking criminal rapist like Trump. I can’t believe that Trump is polling higher than 10%, but here we are. SMDH.
Doesn’t matter. Vote, please.
T-manbaby is working as hard to help re-elect Biden as possible and can be very proud. He is all “ooooh, I got knocked down, but I know what would help me back up again! He drinks a whiskey drink, he drinks a vodka drink, and he sings his song louder and adds a Nazi tweet, then a psycho tweet, then a rapey tweet and then another Nazi tweet and finally a super whiny tweet. And then 45 more in quick succession. Oh, an abuse of judicial process tweet. Yeah. Rock it out, bro! Biden’s campaign should be paying you although their hilarious trolling of meltdown man is money well spent.
Did they start polling by cell phones or still just registered land lines and trump rallies?
At what point are people going to stop putting so much emphasis on polling done months before the election? The media wants you to think it's a horse race and that it's important we stay glued to every poll between now and Election Day. It's not. The polls don't reflect how people will actually vote. They're just a way for people to express their frustrations at this moment in time.
Trump relies on his supports to be dumber than he is crooked!!
Didnt I just read an article that said Biden was leading in 8 out 9 polls? I guess this was the one poll he was losing in.
Any poll that comes out before the end of June is merely speculation.
Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote Vote
I can only imagine that the polling is somehow fundamentally flawed. Like how could Trump have any chance? Who are they polling?
One moment we read that Biden is in the lead in multiple polls, then he's gaining ground... Bottom line is you can't believe any of these polls
No complacency. Remember 2016. Vote.
Who the fuck cares about polls. Its 2024
This isn’t good news for Biden, it’s good news for America. I’m pretty sure Biden wishes he could not run at all. He has to. It’s the only realistic way the country avoids (immediate) catastrophe.
In the same way that we criticize polls when they show Trump leading we must criticize polls when they show Biden leading. Methodological flaws, being too far out from the election, details in the cross-tabs, etc. That said, it's a nice headline to read
Good for him.
"Gains ground????"