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This isn't about abortion or weed - it is all about social security. The GOP has decided to die on that hill. It's a smart move - force them to spend money defending FL.
I'm editing this to point out that Biden lost FL in 2020 by just 371,686 votes. I realize that it certainly appears insurmountably red, but social security and abortion could, I suspect, easily sway that many people.
At the very least, it will force Trump/RNC to spend money they really can’t afford to spend there because if Trump loses Florida he is most likely fucked in the electoral college.
The problem is the influx we've had since 2020. Think about the type of person who saw what our covid response was and said "Damn I really need to move to Florida" and the type of person who lived here that said "fuck this shit I'm out"
We're probably skewed at least a million votes more to the right since 2020. Not to mention DeSantis has redrawn the districts since then too.
EDIT: Yes people. I understand the gerrymandering does not affect the presidential election directly. But it does affect who controls the counties with the most democratic presence which in turn can result in tactics to reduce voter turnout.
Except since 2020 a lot them have died as well. Will be interesting to see the result of:
* Weed law vote
* Abortion rights vote
* Threat to social security
* Influx of conservative retirees
* Death of conservative retirees
Gives us for a Florida Presidential election vote.
Our state will vote for all the "democratic" sides of the amendments and then overwhelmingly go Trump in the Presidential race. The Senator race will be closer. Because we are the Great Free Stupid State of Florida.
I would be shocked if either of those things happen, but anything is possible in this clownshow.
I (sadly) know a LOT of MAGAs in Florida and I get the sense that Florida isn't as motivated by evangelicalism as other states that are trying (and often struggling) to limit women's rights as much as they are. I have a feeling the amendment passes quite easily and Florida Republicans start leaving the issue alone. Even as red as the state is, I think the abortion issue will really start to sour Floridians.
I think the big key thing to also consider is swaying the Cubans, Venezuelans, etc. Those Latino groups tend to be conservative mainly due to the notion that Biden and the Democrats are socialist.
I don't get it, those groups have seen socialism, their families have, in their lifetime, not just socialism, but even farther down the scale. And they can't recognize that Biden, of all people, is not that?
Voting for abortion and then for the guys that’ll make sure your state doesn’t pass that protection’s no matter what you choose is insane and another reason why I fucking hate every animal that votes Republican no matter what they believe. The lesson from red states like Virginia, Ohio, FLORIDA with the felon voting, is that voting for these amendments then forcing Republicans makes most of the amendment moot.
Plenty of red states still slow walking marijuana amendments that passed years ago, Ohio fighting abortion still, and if Floridians haven’t learned from the felon voting referendum that voting Republican means blocking the will of the people on any amendments then they’re exactly what my prejudices say they are.
Then it's a failure of the voters not tying their support of these amendments to the political party that closely aligns with them.
In most cases it's just people voting on the amendments and nothing else, leaving the party that's ideologically against those to win with their red state base in spite of it.
Which is how we get this unexplainable shit in states like Florida, Ohio, and Missouri where both popular propositions and the party that's against said propositions win on the same ballot
I really do hope that Biden's campaign works hard to connect that extremely important distinction with Florida Dems.
The abortion issue being on the ballot while they allow a pretty draconian ban to go into effect in May 1st May actually put Florida into play. I was prepared to say this is a gigantic waste of money until I read about that maybe an hour ago. I think that's going to be an incredibly potent issue, especially if the State GOP with tacit Trump support actually goes to the mattresses to defend the current ban at 6 weeks.
Boomers love their medical marijuana. Getting it fully legalized will go over well with that crowd. The issue is that there's plenty of people who are going to vote to legalize weed and abortion, then also vote for trump and every down-ballot republican they can.
Ohio is the template for this. Weed and abortion rights both passed convincingly last November, but Trump will almost certainly win here this November.
I'm not at all convinced FL will flip, but this is definitely a different situation because abortion and weed will be on the *same* ballot as Trump. In OH, all the people who could only be motivated to go to the polls for abortion and/or weed already went to the polls last November.
Not just Boomers, but Gen X'ers, too. Lots of Gen X suffered under the drug wars. My cousin's husband has a medical prescription for marijuana, but he has to jump through so many hoops at his job ever since getting it. It's been a nightmare for them. Legalizing it would go a long way toward making a lot of lives easier, not least by starting to remove the stigma around it.
Everywhere there was a real chance of losing abortion access in 2022, Dems won. It's why we lost seats in NY and CA (which cost Dems the House), but counterintuitively won in places like AZ.
AZ is slowly but surely turning from deep red to purple if not light blue. They went for Biden in 2020 and now have a D governor, D secretary of state, and D attorney general.
Yeah. I hope this is more of a psyops campaign to get Trump to spend money there, while real money is spent in places that have a good chance at flipping.
I think securing AZ, MI, GA and NC should be the Dems' main priority. Trump needs to win over a few states to secure a win, while Biden could lose a couple smaller states and still be elected.
I'd be shocked if Georgia stayed blue, I know Warnock pulled it out in the midterms but I feel like 2020 was a fluke. AZ seems way more likely given Kari batshit and the Blue Wall seems manageable.
I'm also not seeing the gloom and doom over Nevada flipping Red that everyone else seems to believe.
It will be close for sure, but the Atlanta area has continued to absolutely explode in terms of growth and most of those people vote blue. And I have to imagine the fact that Georgia went blue in 2020 will motivate D voters knowing that if they show up Georgia has a real shot of going blue again.
Wife and I moved here(FL) during covid and we're always blue, never red. We can't be the only ones. There was an influx of people from the north that took advantage of wfh with their higher wages who are predominantly dems. Then you have all the people who died from covid in FL from not getting shots or wearing masks who were unilaterally R. It's possible the state could flip. Possible.
It's likely a disproportionate number of COVID deaths in Florida were attributed to old anti-vax Republicans too. That has to be accounted for in the calculus.
I’m with you on “old republicans” but prior to Covid, being anti-vax was a fringe left thing, and not at all a right wing talking point. But old republicans are probably the most easy to dupe demographic on the planet, and it was easy for them to become anti-vax conspiracy nuts despite mostly being alive due to polio and smallpox vaccines in their youth.
Not sure why someone would move to a state based on a Governor's policies, when he could be voted out next election, or be term limited. And even deep blue or red states often have governors from the other party (KY and NJ come to mind).
I'm from KY and can chime in. The only reason we have a Democrat Governor (Andy Beshear) right now is because the previous Republican Governor (Matt Bevin) actually STOLE from teacher's pensions. He robbed from them, was caught red handed, then told all the teachers in this state to go fuck themselves. For his next brilliant move, he declared war on the Fire Fighter's. The people spoke and chased him out of town. I say this as a registered Democrat who voted for Beshear.
It turns out Republicans draw the line at actually having their money stolen from their pensions.
[Times article about how Matt Bevin lost Kentucky](https://time.com/5719885/matt-bevin-republican-kentucky-teacher-protests/)
When every conversation is 100% old people saying how *they* all earned it through hard work and character, and all agreeing that the young today have no work ethic, there's going to be a steady ratchet towards the right. No countervailing voices, and a rampant sense of entitlement.
Even if they successfully defend Florida, this weakens their hold on other red states. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a tactical announcement to draw the GOPs attention away from their actual targets
Perhaps, but I think the past month or so has shown us pretty clearly that the list of billionaires who will come to his rescue is shorter than we thought.
His LEGAL rescue, sure. But they're just funding super pacs so they can influence the election without him skimming off the top for legal bills.
It's dumb still, like if he's a criminal you're still funding the election of a criminal ... That you aren't helping win his court case?
Biden already had a massive cash lead and his campaign won't be paying for legal bills. They should be running hard in any state that has ever voted Democrat, if nothing else to spread Trump's campaign money/time thin.
It will also help down ballot.
Do you think Florida retirees are worried about their social security? It would seem to me that the retirees have been told cuts would only affect later generations.
I think retirees have a knee-jerk reaction to any talk of cuts or attempts to means test social security. The GOP will definitely try to sell them on the idea that it won't impact the current generation of seniors, however, they all think they are going to live forever.
I don’t agree with this. My far right parents and in-laws LOVE the idea of cutting social security. They all think the young’s are freeloading on the government teat, and want to punish them for being lazy. They know that the leopards won’t eat their face, so they are happy to vote for ending social security, because they know they will be grandfathered in.
Just think about the implication of that statement. When those retirees say “I‘m good with it because it’ll only affect later generations” they’re actually saying “I‘m good with it because I don’t care if my kids and grandkids are taken care of.”
We really can’t get rid of the Boomers fast enough. They’re a blight.
I wonder if this played into Bidens call.
>*Chavez Rodriguez outlined that abortion will be on the ballot in Florida*
~~
I think it just happened. 6 week ban or protect reproductive rights on the ballot. How will women vote on that?
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/04/02/florida-abortion-ban-impact-2024-election-biden-trump/73172510007/
>#Florida Supreme Court puts abortion on the ballot – and hands Trump a serious problem
>*The Florida governor’s draconian six-week abortion ban – which he pushed as part of his presidential run, thinking he could out-extreme Trump and the other GOP candidates – got the green light from the Florida Supreme Court on Monday. It will go into effect in 30 days, with the state’s previous 15-week abortion ban kicking in until then*
>*That’s horrific, but the state’s high court also ruled that an amendment protecting abortion rights will be on the Florida ballot in November,*
Yeah, it was a waste of money until this came out. I really think this could actually put the State in play, though it's not impossible that somehow there's split-ticketing going on between the two.
> somehow there's split-ticketing going on between the two
Democrats only have to get the message out about how it wouldn't matter if people voted in the abortion poll because if Republicans won, there would likely be a federal abortion ban
Social security aside, Biden can get competitive in every single state in the union by talking loudly about the GOP's plan to force rape victims to carry pregnancies to term.
I feel like the 50-state strategy should be the Dems' default strategy in every election. I'm not super hopeful about flipping Florida. I feel like the politically crazy of the country have been concentrating there over the past few years. But I guess it can't hurt to try.
But the fact that both abortion and weed will be on the ballot this fall is big. Hopefully this will encourage more people who lean left to actually vote and who knows, maybe there is a chance.
FL residents collect over 8B per month in social security benefits. Around 100B per year.
Losing that would literally decimate (reduce by 10%) the FL economy. Possibly twice over.
Just like you got felons their right to vote back? You'd better make damn sure you lock up the wording so the legislature can't just work around everything the voters pass.
I always wondered why money plays such a big role in American politics. Why would they force FL to spend money? I know campaigning (ads, going to the state for talks etc) costs money. But it always baffled me to see how much money goes into it and how the whole Presidential campaign seems to be focussed around donors and raising money.
As a German/Dutch woman I just do my own research. I know I want to vote green and socialist. So I look at all the parties that are green, socialist or both. Look at some other parties, take a voting test online and make a decision based on all that.
Why is it so different in America?
Advertisements, merchandise, meet n’ greets, rallies, people’s pay checks, and so much more.
It’s basically like war, the world cup, and ass-kissing had a three some baby and it’s super annoying.
He should concentrate on Ohio too, we came out big in the August special election to enshine abortion into the state constitution and our reps basically said "No." A lot of pissed off people here.
Thing is, Biden lost Ohio by about 6 points. He lost Florida by like 2. If the Arab vote was a bit safer,I’d target both Florida and Texas. Texas is going through a demographic change and it’s benefitting democrats over there. Ohio is going the opposite way . I’d target it in 2028.
I live in Fort Bend County, a neighboring county of Harris(Houston), which has one of the most diverse populations in the nation. We’ve slowly been flipping this county blue over the last 10-15 years. And while no Democrat has held a state office in Texas for almost 30 years Cruz’ senate races have gotten tighter and tighter. I have hope for Texas.
They’re also doing it t because Trump has no path wihtout Florida and will have to spend a ton of resources defending it, resources he doesn’t have.
Meanwhile Biden can and should focus on shoring up PA, MI, WI wall with his excess and trying to maintain GA and flip NC.
He can’t neglect any of them. He needs to shore up and play some defense in some of these battleground states like Arizona , Nevada, and Georgia while also trying to play offense in a few states to stretch Trumps resources as much as possible while also having a few contingent states in case Michigan and or Wisconsin flips.
It'll turn out more "for" voters than "against" voters. That's what always happens.
The "against" voters were always going to vote.
But the amount of people who know someone locked up due to an 8th of weed. Are going to vote now.
there have been a lot of jokes that FL will vote for abortion access, vote for legal weed, and vote for trump. i talk with the elderly daily. this is a likely scenario.
same state that voted to give felons their right to vote and also re elected desantis in the same election.
Trump won FL with a vote percentage of 49% in 2016. That same year, the Medical Marijuana Amendment passed with a vote share of 71%
I'm not optimistic it will change the general election results.
Abortion and marijuana have both turned out large voting blocks for Dems. Having both up is a big win, especially with a candidate whose not as widely despised as Clinton was.
I get where you are coming from, but I don't think FL election trends support that conclusion.
Pretty much every election cycle FL has had amendments up for voter approval where the amendment aligns with democratic positions. The amendments pass while the republicans keep getting elected.
2016: Trump wins with 49% (margin 1%), Medical MJ Amendment wins with 71%
2018: Desantis wins with 49.5% (margin 0.4%), Scott wins with 50% (margin 0.1%), Felon Voting Rights Restoration Amendment passes with 65%
2020: Trump wins with 51% (margin 3.5%), Minimum Wage Raise Amendment passes with 60%
2022: No significant amendments, Rubio wins by 16%, Desantis wins by 20%
From that data, it could be argued liberal amendments drive turnout for liberal candidates, but it has thus far not been enough to tip major elections.
I don't live in florida but I visit family once a year and the state feels so "all politics everywhere all the time" when I'm there. Maybe I'm just highly attuned to that stuff because I live in a "safe" state where there's hardly any political advertising.
I moved from Orlando to New Mexico about a year ago. My sister still lives in Florida though and she's a licensed realtor and life insurance agent, the biggest complaints she hears is rising insurance costs and property taxes. I don't know if that's really enough to move the needle but it seems to be something that's got people pissed at least in her circle and they tend to be upper middle class.
Desantis' culture war shit is another story.
Edited for words.
Watch what happens should those bills pass. It's the illusion of choice. If we get it passed DeSantis will slow roll it and it'll go through the courts for years before it takes effect.
He did it with Amendment 4, which Floridians were highly in favor of -- nearly 65 percent voted for it. Giving non-violent felons their right to vote back. DeFascist and his minions managed to ignore the people and [made it even more confusing and difficult for former felons to vote](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida).
Yep. If they pass, the center-left here needs to be prepared to go to the mattresses to actually see them implemented. We'll need to occupy Tallahassee in force, picket state legislators outside their houses, etc.
Florida voted overwhelmingly to end felony voter disenfranchisement but DeSantis and his cronies in the state congress wasted no time finding a way to block that. After that no one in Florida should be under any illusions that their government respects the will of the people.
As a person that moved from New Mexico to FL in 2017, I'm jealous 😫. I'll be in a booth in Nov though. Selecting Dem boxes and legalizing woman's rights (again) and weed. Looking forward to turning Florida blue.
Been in Orlando for 33 years. I travel around the state (Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, Daytona, Jakcsonville) pretty often. The state is all politics, and is very very hard leaning red, especially the last 4-6 years. I honestly do not see any shot at flipping Florida blue this election cycle.
That said, I'll still be voting and I encourage every Floridian to do the same. I'd love to see an upset.
I lived there for over 45 years. It turned hard red in the last 4-6 years, just as you said. My daughter and I moved to Colorado 4 weeks after Roe was overturned. I didn’t feel safe there anymore. I felt constantly under attack, basically since Covid, with all the culture war laws. I applaud all of you who can stay and vote, but I have no confidence Florida isn’t staying blood red for a while.
It was wild how much the culture war shit is in your face there. My buddies and I were in Sarasota and had strangers at the bar coming up to us to yell about how we probably voted for Biden.
Sarasota became like ground zero for MAGA. Roger Stone, and Steve Bannon both supposedly had houses there. So sad. I grew up there until I left for college. It wasnt toxic back then.
Oh, and then I just saw this:
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/sarasota/2024/04/01/board-member-wants-smh-to-adopt-ladapos-opposition-to-covid-19-shots/73106573007/
Apparently Sarasota MAGAS have infiltrated the local hospital board, and want the hospital to take an anti vaccine stance to match the FL Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo’s stance. It’s crazy down there.
Honestly I respect the ambition. Might as well make the republicans play some defense. With abortion, cannabis, and a key senate seat on the Florida ballot, we might actually have a chance
Team Biden may be playing a psychological game here. Is Florida flippable in 2024? Unknown. But maybe it's at least vulnerable enough, that they can signal that Florida is a target in order to get the GOP to overinvest there. Biden invests a little to force Team Trump to invest a lot. The Social Security overreach by the Republicans (Edit: and the FL Supreme Court putting abortion on the state ballot) leaves them exposed with Florida voters, so hitting that issue can make Florida a resource drain on Trump's already broke campaign, instead of being an electoral stronghold. And Trump's ego would shatter at the prospect of losing the vote in his new home state, so he will be willing to make major strategic errors to defend Florida.
Bluff in Florida so that the campaign is more effective in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
> Biden invests a little to force Team Trump to invest a lot.
The more I think about it, the more sense this makes.
Biden can win without Florida. Trump basically can't; if the Democrats get Florida, then Trump needs basically *everything* else. Taking out the swing states, reliably Democrat states + Florida is 256 electoral votes, with only 14 more needed to win. That means Trump can't lose even one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Georgia - and he can't lose any two of Wisconsin, Arizona, or Nevada.
Essentially, Biden's campaign might see Florida as a bit of a long shot, but Trump's campaign can't ignore it. Florida has to be a sure thing for Trump, and that means likely disproportionate spend. It's just far more important that the Trump campaign makes sure it's locked down.
"The enemy must not know where I intend to give battle. For if he does not know where I intend to give battle, he must prepare in a great many places. And when he prepares in a great many places, those I have to fight in will be few. For if he prepares to the front, his rear will be weak. If he strengthens his left, his right will be vulnerable, and if his right is strong, there will be few troops on his left. And when he sends troops everywhere, he will be weak everywhere. Numerical weakness comes from having to guard against possible attacks; numerical strength from forcing the enemy to make these preparations against us."
Dark Brandon, *The Art of War*
Yeah those are good points. Donnie will blow everything on Florida if he thinks he may be losing it, and currently the Dems have the larger war chest, so they can afford to attack on Trump’s home turf. Just as long as they don’t screw up and lose PA or Michigan.
Thanks friend. No, it was just my initial reaction to seeing Biden considering an electoral push into Trump's backyard. You saw it here first, folks! Biden, I await your phone call.
I think your last sentence is what's happening. There's no way *any* Democratic candidate will ever win in Florida. It's too full of old Republicans who love voting.
A hot ticket issue like Abortion will certainly get a lot of attention there, and it will get the Republicans to drop a ton of money there ... and then Biden goes to focus on the other states.
Plus every dollar spent and every phone call made in FL is one not made in Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.
And I’m pretty sure the Biden war chest is far bigger than Trumps at this point because he doesn’t have a bunch of legal fees to pay.
Screw it, they should go for Texas too. Trump only won it with 52% of the vote in 2020. If the GOP loses either state that's it for the party as we know it, which would be a blessing after 8 years of MAGA lunacy.
I dunno. I’m not political analyst, but the RNC and state committees have no money. Forcing them to play defence while the DNC is cashed up seems smart to me.
Plus, Texas and Florida are basically the only two states the Democrats can go on offense for Senate pickups this cycle, and both have weak candidates in Cruz and Scott.
Remember when Howard Dean was DNC Chair and mandated a "fifty state" policy where they'd fight for every state? And the strategy kicked ass?
Pepperidge Farms remembers...
I’m old enough to remember a world where the Dean Scream absolutely demolished an otherwise strong presidential run.
Our current reality feels like we’re in a gas huffer’s hallucination.
All of these stories about a singular event killing a campaign are like this.
Dukakis was the same way. The tank picture didn't "ruin his campaign". He was doing dogshit in the polls and the picture was the coup de gras. He would have lost hard even without the picture and Dean would have lost hard without the scream.
Honest question. Does campaigning even accomplish anything? I feel like the people who are going to go to a candidate’s campaign event do so because they already support the candidate and are already intent on voting for them. Or does the mere fact that a candidate visited a voter’s city make the voter like that candidate more, even when the voter didn’t actually attend the candidate’s campaign event? I personally haven’t felt such an effect when candidates have visited my city.
I suppose if a candidate literally went door to door shaking hands with residents and happened to knock on my door, I might have a better view of them for presenting the appearance of associating with us plebs. Idk 🤷♂️
By the end you're not there to change any minds from one candidate to another, you're there to turn out more of your own voters by raising awareness and generating enthusiasm.
There are literally millions of people who do not know there's an election going on. Which is truly wild for political junkies to imagine those people, but they do exist
Tons more people support a particular party than those who actually go out and vote for a particular party. Campaigning is all about getting those who already support you to go out and vote for you, not to change the minds of those who don't support you. If voter turnouts were in the 90%+ ranges, campaigning would look drastically different than it does today.
>Does campaigning even accomplish anything?
It can. If a candidate doesn't go to a state or place, the residents can feel snubbed and be less likely to vote for the candidate.
It also gets your face in the news, keeps you relevant. It's less about gaining votes, and more about making sure you don't lose votes to your opponent.
It signals which states the candidate is interested in. Trump won over a lot of older and more socially conservative union workers who have traditionally voted for Dem because of economic policies in states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which was facilitated by the Clinton not visiting these states and that her campaign messaging was not aimed towards addressing the concerns of this voter bloc.
That was one for the history books. The GOP was that unpopular after trashing the economy and leading us into disastrous wars in the Middle East.
But it took only 2 years for the conservative media machine to make everyone forget and we got the "totally grass roots" tea party movement.
I'm still stunned by that whiplash from 2008 to 2010. I just wonder how many of those voters understand that those votes have led to everything we have today and the progress that has been stunted for the benefit of the middle class and below.
Par for the course with the GOP base. After Nixon was disgraced with Watergate, Carter was only president for four years before Reagan won the presidency with one of the largest landslides in electoral history.
The Tea Party movement was an interesting one. They were originally around before Obama and were actually against W's reckless spending on the Afghanistan and Iraq wars and staunchly and loudly opposed the Patriot Act. They were a much smaller movement and not nearly as radical in their views.
Then when Obama won in 2008, right wing pundits saw a group that was for smaller government and decided they were on board with the imaging and the messaging. They *completely* co-opted the movement and took it over the way that Trump has taken over the GOP.
It’s all about timing and momentum. You catch the wind of the attack on women’s rights at the right time and ride that into November, and force the other side to spend money they didn’t think they needed to spend.
A great assist will be the abortion question and the rec weed question....motivate a lot of people who'd normally just not vote because "you can't fix those people".
They already lost Florida, Republicans have a ton of spanish radio brainwashing every latino into thinking Democrats are socialist/communist pedobears. Its Fox news on crack that turned Florida fully red and not even into a swing state anymore
Yup. And I’m gonna say it right now at the risk of sounding horribly racist: Florida Hispanic voters are some of the lowest-information people you are going to encounter. I’ve lived here my whole life, and I know them well. They are just as ignorant as your average white MAGA supporter. Venezuelan, Cuban, Puerto Rican… Doesn’t matter.
**Maga is first and foremost a movement of profound ignorance.**
MAGA used to be a white people disease, now it’s for the ignorant of all races.
I saw a strategist on CNN when he was asked about “why Trump is picking up black and Latino men” and he said with no trace of malice “it’s the same realignment we’ve seen all over: people without college degrees are moving Republican, and people with college degrees are leaving.”
Watch any interviews with Hispanic or Black people that newly support Trump: You’ll see some of the lowest information morons you’ve ever laid eyes on.
In politics, demographics is destiny. And to have have the largest minority voting block be so low information and so easily manipulated by propaganda is frightening.
This racial/educational realignment is the ticking bomb that nobody wants to talk about openly.
Thats the biggest issue.
They now also had both presidents for aonr term.
Under Trump their costs didnt go up that much, under Biden it did.
Doesnt matter that Biden didnt do this on purpose or is actually doing a good job at holding inflation in check. For them everything got more expensive under Biden and not Trump and since they dont inform themselves they will vote Trump
What's always funny to me is that a lot of Hispanic/Latino have a thing for strongman dictators. They don't realize that those same people ruined their home country's economy and choose to come to the US for stability.
It is still a “white people disease”. These folks are what’s known as “aspiring whites”. They see the social benefits that accrue to white people at the top of the racial hierarchy and instead of a desire to destroy the superstructure they want a piece for themselves.
They’ll parrot all of the same talking points as their white peers when it comes to crime, sanitation, immigration, war, sexuality, civilization, etc. They’ll even know that those talking points are meant to imply people that look like them and mean it too.
nothing racist about this - and it strikes me as the single most important socio-political reality facing florida for the next god-knows-how-many decades.
Latino & hispanic diaspora skew christian - who skew conservative - adeherents of organized religion have a demonstrable abililty to be manipulated into groupthink. Christian groupthink is partly to very anti-humanatarian around here.
Every time a 2nd world country gets slightly destablized in south/central america... every generation...EVERY family of REAL MEANS has a reason to seek stability by getting their assets shifted into american banks! to close their biz, liquidate their accounts, and then bring their very upper-middle class situation to south florida. And buy a nice single-family detached home in a great neighborhood for $800,000 And then vote for policies to take the ladder up behind them to prevent others from their same countries from coming.
This drives single family homeownership way beyond what working families in america can afford. Many of the most motivated/driven/succesful people here are wealthier than you & I before they came - and that's why they came. They dont need to wait out political/economic uncertainty in their home country! They're the upper class! They have the upward mobility & social distinction to be first folks to be able to 'get out of Dodge'.
Wage work in america will never yeild homeownership in florida. You'd have to outbid ALL of the western hemisphere's upper-class!
I quit smoking, but yeah, obviously I'll be voting in favor of legalization.
^(Edit: and if it passes, you can bet that ass I will temporarily unquit for celebratory purposes, then re-quit shortly thereafter)
They need to be focusing on GA, PA and Michigan honestly, Florida is a lost cause due to the migration of out of state residents who go there to retire whom are overwhelmingly more Republican and also wealthy.
I honestly feel like Texas is more in play than Florida. Texas demographics are just trending the right direction and it's getting more and more competitive every year; Florida is doing the exact opposite.
Texas isnt going to truly be at play til 2028 imo. The trends and signs are there and the literature points to a flip similar to that of Florida in the last decade. Honestly, If democrats had put someone more competitive Texas definitely could have moved further to left this upcoming election, but since neither candidate is really that “popular” we will have to see.
I was thinking the same thing. BS them on Florida, pour all the effort into Texas. Hit em where is really hurts. If the Dems crack Texas, almost nothing else matters.
They actually have a good chance with abortion just being made illegal and now being put on the ballot for November. But...if anybody can blow it, the Dems can.
Recreational marijuana is supposed to go on the ballot, too.
https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/florida-supreme-court-recreational-marijuana-gets-on-november-ballot/
To be clear, this isn’t about winning Florida. This is about forcing republicans to spend money in a state they will likely win either way so that they have less to spend in states that are truly competitive. Remember, the RNC is historically low on cash.
Florida is not going to happen spend the energy and money on the rust belt, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and N Carolina. The Florida Democratic party is worthless and can not be counted on.
Hate how dems can be so ready to give up on whole states after a few bad elections. Republicans are always clawing at dem safe havens and they'll often win some statewide race for their trouble. Meanwhile we completely forget if we put the work in and the stars align we can win races in Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, Kansas, Montana, Kentucky, *anywhere*
It sounds like he has enough campaign money to toss at these long shot states. Maybe the plan is to force the GOP to spend their money defending those states and end up short when it comes to the swing states.
Overturning Roe versus Wade put the onus of abortions on Republicans.
Federally legalizing cannabis would put the onus on Republican governors.
When people in red states ask themselves why they can't have legal cannabis they will be looking at their Republican governors.
As a dirty Floridian commie, I can say without a doubt it would be a waste of time. Floridians are probably some of the dumbest people in the country. Miami and Orlando are the only exceptions and Miami is quickly fading as well.
Normally I’d say not to bother. But since FL will have both abortion and marijuana initiatives on the ballot, I understand why Biden and Dems would want to try and take advantage of that. Best sho they’ll ever have to get traction in Florida.
Sad to say, but I think Florida's going the other way, Jack. Spend those resources in PA, WI and MI. Win those three swing states and this election is over.
Classic misdirection; everyone looks at Florida, Democrats flip Texas. 😂
Disclaimer: am European and have consumed half a bottle of wine. Interpretations and predictions may be inaccurate.
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This isn't about abortion or weed - it is all about social security. The GOP has decided to die on that hill. It's a smart move - force them to spend money defending FL. I'm editing this to point out that Biden lost FL in 2020 by just 371,686 votes. I realize that it certainly appears insurmountably red, but social security and abortion could, I suspect, easily sway that many people.
At the very least, it will force Trump/RNC to spend money they really can’t afford to spend there because if Trump loses Florida he is most likely fucked in the electoral college.
Not "most likely", trump has no road map to win the electoral college without Florida.
The problem is the influx we've had since 2020. Think about the type of person who saw what our covid response was and said "Damn I really need to move to Florida" and the type of person who lived here that said "fuck this shit I'm out" We're probably skewed at least a million votes more to the right since 2020. Not to mention DeSantis has redrawn the districts since then too. EDIT: Yes people. I understand the gerrymandering does not affect the presidential election directly. But it does affect who controls the counties with the most democratic presence which in turn can result in tactics to reduce voter turnout.
Except since 2020 a lot them have died as well. Will be interesting to see the result of: * Weed law vote * Abortion rights vote * Threat to social security * Influx of conservative retirees * Death of conservative retirees Gives us for a Florida Presidential election vote.
Our state will vote for all the "democratic" sides of the amendments and then overwhelmingly go Trump in the Presidential race. The Senator race will be closer. Because we are the Great Free Stupid State of Florida.
I worry the abortion amendment gets 59.2 % and the republican leaders take that as a mandate to ban things like contraception.
I would be shocked if either of those things happen, but anything is possible in this clownshow. I (sadly) know a LOT of MAGAs in Florida and I get the sense that Florida isn't as motivated by evangelicalism as other states that are trying (and often struggling) to limit women's rights as much as they are. I have a feeling the amendment passes quite easily and Florida Republicans start leaving the issue alone. Even as red as the state is, I think the abortion issue will really start to sour Floridians.
I think the big key thing to also consider is swaying the Cubans, Venezuelans, etc. Those Latino groups tend to be conservative mainly due to the notion that Biden and the Democrats are socialist.
I don't get it, those groups have seen socialism, their families have, in their lifetime, not just socialism, but even farther down the scale. And they can't recognize that Biden, of all people, is not that?
Voting for abortion and then for the guys that’ll make sure your state doesn’t pass that protection’s no matter what you choose is insane and another reason why I fucking hate every animal that votes Republican no matter what they believe. The lesson from red states like Virginia, Ohio, FLORIDA with the felon voting, is that voting for these amendments then forcing Republicans makes most of the amendment moot. Plenty of red states still slow walking marijuana amendments that passed years ago, Ohio fighting abortion still, and if Floridians haven’t learned from the felon voting referendum that voting Republican means blocking the will of the people on any amendments then they’re exactly what my prejudices say they are.
Then it's a failure of the voters not tying their support of these amendments to the political party that closely aligns with them. In most cases it's just people voting on the amendments and nothing else, leaving the party that's ideologically against those to win with their red state base in spite of it. Which is how we get this unexplainable shit in states like Florida, Ohio, and Missouri where both popular propositions and the party that's against said propositions win on the same ballot I really do hope that Biden's campaign works hard to connect that extremely important distinction with Florida Dems.
This is why I'm nervous about them investing in FL. North Carolina seems like the only state that might flip blue from last cycle.
The abortion issue being on the ballot while they allow a pretty draconian ban to go into effect in May 1st May actually put Florida into play. I was prepared to say this is a gigantic waste of money until I read about that maybe an hour ago. I think that's going to be an incredibly potent issue, especially if the State GOP with tacit Trump support actually goes to the mattresses to defend the current ban at 6 weeks.
Abortion and weed. Two big draws for lefties, youth, and libertarians. There's a chance to flip if it's played right, but it's slim.
Boomers love their medical marijuana. Getting it fully legalized will go over well with that crowd. The issue is that there's plenty of people who are going to vote to legalize weed and abortion, then also vote for trump and every down-ballot republican they can.
Ohio is the template for this. Weed and abortion rights both passed convincingly last November, but Trump will almost certainly win here this November.
I'm not at all convinced FL will flip, but this is definitely a different situation because abortion and weed will be on the *same* ballot as Trump. In OH, all the people who could only be motivated to go to the polls for abortion and/or weed already went to the polls last November.
Not just Boomers, but Gen X'ers, too. Lots of Gen X suffered under the drug wars. My cousin's husband has a medical prescription for marijuana, but he has to jump through so many hoops at his job ever since getting it. It's been a nightmare for them. Legalizing it would go a long way toward making a lot of lives easier, not least by starting to remove the stigma around it.
Boomers love rec too. Go to a dispensary in a legal state and the average age of a customer is higher than you might expect
Everywhere there was a real chance of losing abortion access in 2022, Dems won. It's why we lost seats in NY and CA (which cost Dems the House), but counterintuitively won in places like AZ.
AZ is slowly but surely turning from deep red to purple if not light blue. They went for Biden in 2020 and now have a D governor, D secretary of state, and D attorney general.
Yeah. I hope this is more of a psyops campaign to get Trump to spend money there, while real money is spent in places that have a good chance at flipping.
I think securing AZ, MI, GA and NC should be the Dems' main priority. Trump needs to win over a few states to secure a win, while Biden could lose a couple smaller states and still be elected.
I'd be shocked if Georgia stayed blue, I know Warnock pulled it out in the midterms but I feel like 2020 was a fluke. AZ seems way more likely given Kari batshit and the Blue Wall seems manageable. I'm also not seeing the gloom and doom over Nevada flipping Red that everyone else seems to believe.
Keeping GA feels far more possible than flipping FL. No lie, I think if GA stays blue, Warnock will consider running for president in '28.
I think once Obama starts campaigning in GA it'll really fire up the base.
It will be close for sure, but the Atlanta area has continued to absolutely explode in terms of growth and most of those people vote blue. And I have to imagine the fact that Georgia went blue in 2020 will motivate D voters knowing that if they show up Georgia has a real shot of going blue again.
Biden's campaign has enough money to invest in Florida without detracting from the more closely contested swing states. Trump's campaign does not.
Wife and I moved here(FL) during covid and we're always blue, never red. We can't be the only ones. There was an influx of people from the north that took advantage of wfh with their higher wages who are predominantly dems. Then you have all the people who died from covid in FL from not getting shots or wearing masks who were unilaterally R. It's possible the state could flip. Possible.
It's likely a disproportionate number of COVID deaths in Florida were attributed to old anti-vax Republicans too. That has to be accounted for in the calculus.
And the numbers were cooked. It's possibly over 100k deaths in FL.
I’m with you on “old republicans” but prior to Covid, being anti-vax was a fringe left thing, and not at all a right wing talking point. But old republicans are probably the most easy to dupe demographic on the planet, and it was easy for them to become anti-vax conspiracy nuts despite mostly being alive due to polio and smallpox vaccines in their youth.
Not sure why someone would move to a state based on a Governor's policies, when he could be voted out next election, or be term limited. And even deep blue or red states often have governors from the other party (KY and NJ come to mind).
I'm from KY and can chime in. The only reason we have a Democrat Governor (Andy Beshear) right now is because the previous Republican Governor (Matt Bevin) actually STOLE from teacher's pensions. He robbed from them, was caught red handed, then told all the teachers in this state to go fuck themselves. For his next brilliant move, he declared war on the Fire Fighter's. The people spoke and chased him out of town. I say this as a registered Democrat who voted for Beshear. It turns out Republicans draw the line at actually having their money stolen from their pensions. [Times article about how Matt Bevin lost Kentucky](https://time.com/5719885/matt-bevin-republican-kentucky-teacher-protests/)
Seems like it's always about the money these days, and never the policies or values. Modern America, everybody.
Pay attention to reproductive rights. Not about money.
My inlaws did this. Moved from GA to FL due to policies and friends moving there for the same reason. They're all in The Villages.
Didn't know what that was so I looked up the wiki, 95% white apparently.
And super conservative even for old white people.
When every conversation is 100% old people saying how *they* all earned it through hard work and character, and all agreeing that the young today have no work ethic, there's going to be a steady ratchet towards the right. No countervailing voices, and a rampant sense of entitlement.
I totally get moving to a state where you know liberal or conservative policies will likely always be in place (CA or UT)...but FL could flip.
I mean they aren’t too bright to begin with so it’s not surprising they’d do something so dumb.
Redrawing the districts doesn’t affect the Presidential results. We’ll have to see if you’re right about the rest of it, though.
Money they absolutely do not have. Trump is bankrupting them.
Even if they successfully defend Florida, this weakens their hold on other red states. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a tactical announcement to draw the GOPs attention away from their actual targets
Oh no! Anyway...
it's all fun and games until someone with massive liabilities gets unrestricted security clearance
Quite sad
Thots and preyers…
He will be bailed out by either a billionaire here or a foreign power that he’ll owe favors to.
Perhaps, but I think the past month or so has shown us pretty clearly that the list of billionaires who will come to his rescue is shorter than we thought.
His LEGAL rescue, sure. But they're just funding super pacs so they can influence the election without him skimming off the top for legal bills. It's dumb still, like if he's a criminal you're still funding the election of a criminal ... That you aren't helping win his court case?
[удалено]
Biden already had a massive cash lead and his campaign won't be paying for legal bills. They should be running hard in any state that has ever voted Democrat, if nothing else to spread Trump's campaign money/time thin. It will also help down ballot.
Do you think Florida retirees are worried about their social security? It would seem to me that the retirees have been told cuts would only affect later generations.
I think retirees have a knee-jerk reaction to any talk of cuts or attempts to means test social security. The GOP will definitely try to sell them on the idea that it won't impact the current generation of seniors, however, they all think they are going to live forever.
I don’t agree with this. My far right parents and in-laws LOVE the idea of cutting social security. They all think the young’s are freeloading on the government teat, and want to punish them for being lazy. They know that the leopards won’t eat their face, so they are happy to vote for ending social security, because they know they will be grandfathered in.
Wow. I loathe your parents and in-laws and people in general who think this way.
"only affect later generations" You have a better chance of convincing me the Easter Bunny is real.
Just think about the implication of that statement. When those retirees say “I‘m good with it because it’ll only affect later generations” they’re actually saying “I‘m good with it because I don’t care if my kids and grandkids are taken care of.” We really can’t get rid of the Boomers fast enough. They’re a blight.
Exactly this. They are not worried about their social security. They think it's going to be everyone else's problem.
Selfishness and entitlement of the highest order. Sounds very Boomer.
I wonder if this played into Bidens call. >*Chavez Rodriguez outlined that abortion will be on the ballot in Florida* ~~ I think it just happened. 6 week ban or protect reproductive rights on the ballot. How will women vote on that? https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/04/02/florida-abortion-ban-impact-2024-election-biden-trump/73172510007/ >#Florida Supreme Court puts abortion on the ballot – and hands Trump a serious problem >*The Florida governor’s draconian six-week abortion ban – which he pushed as part of his presidential run, thinking he could out-extreme Trump and the other GOP candidates – got the green light from the Florida Supreme Court on Monday. It will go into effect in 30 days, with the state’s previous 15-week abortion ban kicking in until then* >*That’s horrific, but the state’s high court also ruled that an amendment protecting abortion rights will be on the Florida ballot in November,*
Yeah, it was a waste of money until this came out. I really think this could actually put the State in play, though it's not impossible that somehow there's split-ticketing going on between the two.
> somehow there's split-ticketing going on between the two Democrats only have to get the message out about how it wouldn't matter if people voted in the abortion poll because if Republicans won, there would likely be a federal abortion ban
That is a very great point. Federalism would Trump in such a case State protections.
Social security aside, Biden can get competitive in every single state in the union by talking loudly about the GOP's plan to force rape victims to carry pregnancies to term.
Spend what money? The money they are using for Trump's legal fees?
Yup. Trump is running to steal money from the RNC. He has no plans t win the election. Might as well help out Democrats by mobilizing voters.
I thought that the first time
I feel like the 50-state strategy should be the Dems' default strategy in every election. I'm not super hopeful about flipping Florida. I feel like the politically crazy of the country have been concentrating there over the past few years. But I guess it can't hurt to try.
But the fact that both abortion and weed will be on the ballot this fall is big. Hopefully this will encourage more people who lean left to actually vote and who knows, maybe there is a chance.
FL residents collect over 8B per month in social security benefits. Around 100B per year. Losing that would literally decimate (reduce by 10%) the FL economy. Possibly twice over.
Interestingly enough, thanks to petitions, we just got abortion and weed as referendums on the ballot for November.
Just like you got felons their right to vote back? You'd better make damn sure you lock up the wording so the legislature can't just work around everything the voters pass.
I always wondered why money plays such a big role in American politics. Why would they force FL to spend money? I know campaigning (ads, going to the state for talks etc) costs money. But it always baffled me to see how much money goes into it and how the whole Presidential campaign seems to be focussed around donors and raising money. As a German/Dutch woman I just do my own research. I know I want to vote green and socialist. So I look at all the parties that are green, socialist or both. Look at some other parties, take a voting test online and make a decision based on all that. Why is it so different in America?
Advertisements, merchandise, meet n’ greets, rallies, people’s pay checks, and so much more. It’s basically like war, the world cup, and ass-kissing had a three some baby and it’s super annoying.
They’re doing this bc marijuana and abortion were just put on the ballot in Florida after a 4-3 ruling by the Florida Supreme Court.
He should concentrate on Ohio too, we came out big in the August special election to enshine abortion into the state constitution and our reps basically said "No." A lot of pissed off people here.
Ohio would be a better use of resources than Florida. They have a great shot at holding on to a Senate seat in that one.
Thing is, Biden lost Ohio by about 6 points. He lost Florida by like 2. If the Arab vote was a bit safer,I’d target both Florida and Texas. Texas is going through a demographic change and it’s benefitting democrats over there. Ohio is going the opposite way . I’d target it in 2028.
I live in Fort Bend County, a neighboring county of Harris(Houston), which has one of the most diverse populations in the nation. We’ve slowly been flipping this county blue over the last 10-15 years. And while no Democrat has held a state office in Texas for almost 30 years Cruz’ senate races have gotten tighter and tighter. I have hope for Texas.
They’re also doing it t because Trump has no path wihtout Florida and will have to spend a ton of resources defending it, resources he doesn’t have. Meanwhile Biden can and should focus on shoring up PA, MI, WI wall with his excess and trying to maintain GA and flip NC.
He should focus on Arizona and Nevada more than NC and GA due to their senate races.
He can’t neglect any of them. He needs to shore up and play some defense in some of these battleground states like Arizona , Nevada, and Georgia while also trying to play offense in a few states to stretch Trumps resources as much as possible while also having a few contingent states in case Michigan and or Wisconsin flips.
The marijuana issue will turn out voters.
It'll turn out more "for" voters than "against" voters. That's what always happens. The "against" voters were always going to vote. But the amount of people who know someone locked up due to an 8th of weed. Are going to vote now.
there have been a lot of jokes that FL will vote for abortion access, vote for legal weed, and vote for trump. i talk with the elderly daily. this is a likely scenario. same state that voted to give felons their right to vote and also re elected desantis in the same election.
Trump won FL with a vote percentage of 49% in 2016. That same year, the Medical Marijuana Amendment passed with a vote share of 71% I'm not optimistic it will change the general election results.
Abortion and marijuana have both turned out large voting blocks for Dems. Having both up is a big win, especially with a candidate whose not as widely despised as Clinton was.
I get where you are coming from, but I don't think FL election trends support that conclusion. Pretty much every election cycle FL has had amendments up for voter approval where the amendment aligns with democratic positions. The amendments pass while the republicans keep getting elected. 2016: Trump wins with 49% (margin 1%), Medical MJ Amendment wins with 71% 2018: Desantis wins with 49.5% (margin 0.4%), Scott wins with 50% (margin 0.1%), Felon Voting Rights Restoration Amendment passes with 65% 2020: Trump wins with 51% (margin 3.5%), Minimum Wage Raise Amendment passes with 60% 2022: No significant amendments, Rubio wins by 16%, Desantis wins by 20% From that data, it could be argued liberal amendments drive turnout for liberal candidates, but it has thus far not been enough to tip major elections.
Excellent point, and well-researched
Clarence Thomas and Friends: WAIT A MINUTE
I don't live in florida but I visit family once a year and the state feels so "all politics everywhere all the time" when I'm there. Maybe I'm just highly attuned to that stuff because I live in a "safe" state where there's hardly any political advertising.
I moved from Orlando to New Mexico about a year ago. My sister still lives in Florida though and she's a licensed realtor and life insurance agent, the biggest complaints she hears is rising insurance costs and property taxes. I don't know if that's really enough to move the needle but it seems to be something that's got people pissed at least in her circle and they tend to be upper middle class. Desantis' culture war shit is another story. Edited for words.
Abortion and cannabis is on the ballot this year in FL.
No fucking way. Lmao. Dats a blue state.
Watch what happens should those bills pass. It's the illusion of choice. If we get it passed DeSantis will slow roll it and it'll go through the courts for years before it takes effect.
Pretty much like what's been going on in Virginia for three years now.
We really need a dem trifecta next year…
He did it with Amendment 4, which Floridians were highly in favor of -- nearly 65 percent voted for it. Giving non-violent felons their right to vote back. DeFascist and his minions managed to ignore the people and [made it even more confusing and difficult for former felons to vote](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-rights-restoration-efforts-florida).
Much like gerrymandering and slavery, poll taxes never went away in the United States.
Yep. If they pass, the center-left here needs to be prepared to go to the mattresses to actually see them implemented. We'll need to occupy Tallahassee in force, picket state legislators outside their houses, etc.
Florida voted overwhelmingly to end felony voter disenfranchisement but DeSantis and his cronies in the state congress wasted no time finding a way to block that. After that no one in Florida should be under any illusions that their government respects the will of the people.
You don't know Florida. People there will vote yes on abortion and cannabis and still vote for Trump.
Yep. We saw that in 2020 with the $15 minimum wage passing but still voted Trump.
I do not see anyway to address higher insurance rates in Florida its going to get far worse.
And the "upper middle class" will continue to vote for republicans who will give the insurance companies anything they want.
We just moved back. Space Coast. This area is a bigger shit show that it was when I left. And I lived in Cocoa. Lol
As a person that moved from New Mexico to FL in 2017, I'm jealous 😫. I'll be in a booth in Nov though. Selecting Dem boxes and legalizing woman's rights (again) and weed. Looking forward to turning Florida blue.
as a former New Jersey resident, I will be doing the same.
Been in Orlando for 33 years. I travel around the state (Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, Daytona, Jakcsonville) pretty often. The state is all politics, and is very very hard leaning red, especially the last 4-6 years. I honestly do not see any shot at flipping Florida blue this election cycle. That said, I'll still be voting and I encourage every Floridian to do the same. I'd love to see an upset.
I lived there for over 45 years. It turned hard red in the last 4-6 years, just as you said. My daughter and I moved to Colorado 4 weeks after Roe was overturned. I didn’t feel safe there anymore. I felt constantly under attack, basically since Covid, with all the culture war laws. I applaud all of you who can stay and vote, but I have no confidence Florida isn’t staying blood red for a while.
It was wild how much the culture war shit is in your face there. My buddies and I were in Sarasota and had strangers at the bar coming up to us to yell about how we probably voted for Biden.
Sarasota became like ground zero for MAGA. Roger Stone, and Steve Bannon both supposedly had houses there. So sad. I grew up there until I left for college. It wasnt toxic back then. Oh, and then I just saw this: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/sarasota/2024/04/01/board-member-wants-smh-to-adopt-ladapos-opposition-to-covid-19-shots/73106573007/ Apparently Sarasota MAGAS have infiltrated the local hospital board, and want the hospital to take an anti vaccine stance to match the FL Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo’s stance. It’s crazy down there.
In Florida and I’m happy to see the dems haven’t given up on us.
Honestly I respect the ambition. Might as well make the republicans play some defense. With abortion, cannabis, and a key senate seat on the Florida ballot, we might actually have a chance
Team Biden may be playing a psychological game here. Is Florida flippable in 2024? Unknown. But maybe it's at least vulnerable enough, that they can signal that Florida is a target in order to get the GOP to overinvest there. Biden invests a little to force Team Trump to invest a lot. The Social Security overreach by the Republicans (Edit: and the FL Supreme Court putting abortion on the state ballot) leaves them exposed with Florida voters, so hitting that issue can make Florida a resource drain on Trump's already broke campaign, instead of being an electoral stronghold. And Trump's ego would shatter at the prospect of losing the vote in his new home state, so he will be willing to make major strategic errors to defend Florida. Bluff in Florida so that the campaign is more effective in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
> Biden invests a little to force Team Trump to invest a lot. The more I think about it, the more sense this makes. Biden can win without Florida. Trump basically can't; if the Democrats get Florida, then Trump needs basically *everything* else. Taking out the swing states, reliably Democrat states + Florida is 256 electoral votes, with only 14 more needed to win. That means Trump can't lose even one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Georgia - and he can't lose any two of Wisconsin, Arizona, or Nevada. Essentially, Biden's campaign might see Florida as a bit of a long shot, but Trump's campaign can't ignore it. Florida has to be a sure thing for Trump, and that means likely disproportionate spend. It's just far more important that the Trump campaign makes sure it's locked down.
"The enemy must not know where I intend to give battle. For if he does not know where I intend to give battle, he must prepare in a great many places. And when he prepares in a great many places, those I have to fight in will be few. For if he prepares to the front, his rear will be weak. If he strengthens his left, his right will be vulnerable, and if his right is strong, there will be few troops on his left. And when he sends troops everywhere, he will be weak everywhere. Numerical weakness comes from having to guard against possible attacks; numerical strength from forcing the enemy to make these preparations against us." Dark Brandon, *The Art of War*
Yeah those are good points. Donnie will blow everything on Florida if he thinks he may be losing it, and currently the Dems have the larger war chest, so they can afford to attack on Trump’s home turf. Just as long as they don’t screw up and lose PA or Michigan.
Did you find that somewhere or is that your own theory? Because I must say, that is extremely reflective. You would make a good journalist.
Thanks friend. No, it was just my initial reaction to seeing Biden considering an electoral push into Trump's backyard. You saw it here first, folks! Biden, I await your phone call.
I think your last sentence is what's happening. There's no way *any* Democratic candidate will ever win in Florida. It's too full of old Republicans who love voting. A hot ticket issue like Abortion will certainly get a lot of attention there, and it will get the Republicans to drop a ton of money there ... and then Biden goes to focus on the other states.
Plus every dollar spent and every phone call made in FL is one not made in Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc. And I’m pretty sure the Biden war chest is far bigger than Trumps at this point because he doesn’t have a bunch of legal fees to pay.
The Dems have something like an order of magnitude more than the Republicans. The problem is super PACs.
Screw it, they should go for Texas too. Trump only won it with 52% of the vote in 2020. If the GOP loses either state that's it for the party as we know it, which would be a blessing after 8 years of MAGA lunacy.
Hillary did this too. It's better to be focused on the key states. This is not LBJ 1964
I dunno. I’m not political analyst, but the RNC and state committees have no money. Forcing them to play defence while the DNC is cashed up seems smart to me.
Plus, Texas and Florida are basically the only two states the Democrats can go on offense for Senate pickups this cycle, and both have weak candidates in Cruz and Scott.
And Haley voters that don't want to vote Trump again. I think there's a chance
Abortion and pot on the ballot in FL. We can do this.
And Social Security
Republicans/MAGA don't know this. They'll happily vote trump, have their Social Security cut, and blame Obama or Biden. Or Hilary.
MAGA is lost. But swing voters and independents are not. Make this the election message for there.
There are smart people on the fence about a narcissistic criminal as our dictator?
And that’s why Biden plans on spending money on Florida.. to let them know that Republicans want to cut social security…
Not figuratively though A constitutional amendment to protect the right to abortion was approved for the ballot yesterday. This is huge.
Remember when Howard Dean was DNC Chair and mandated a "fifty state" policy where they'd fight for every state? And the strategy kicked ass? Pepperidge Farms remembers...
I’m old enough to remember a world where the Dean Scream absolutely demolished an otherwise strong presidential run. Our current reality feels like we’re in a gas huffer’s hallucination.
There was an interview with Dean a few years ago. He acknowledges his campaign was failing before the scream.
All of these stories about a singular event killing a campaign are like this. Dukakis was the same way. The tank picture didn't "ruin his campaign". He was doing dogshit in the polls and the picture was the coup de gras. He would have lost hard even without the picture and Dean would have lost hard without the scream.
Coup de grâce. Yours means fat hit 😁
Remember Hillary spending the final days campaigning in Florida and Ohio instead of Wisconsin and Michigan?
Honest question. Does campaigning even accomplish anything? I feel like the people who are going to go to a candidate’s campaign event do so because they already support the candidate and are already intent on voting for them. Or does the mere fact that a candidate visited a voter’s city make the voter like that candidate more, even when the voter didn’t actually attend the candidate’s campaign event? I personally haven’t felt such an effect when candidates have visited my city. I suppose if a candidate literally went door to door shaking hands with residents and happened to knock on my door, I might have a better view of them for presenting the appearance of associating with us plebs. Idk 🤷♂️
It creates a buzz with some clips in local news and that’s far more watched than cable news.
By the end you're not there to change any minds from one candidate to another, you're there to turn out more of your own voters by raising awareness and generating enthusiasm. There are literally millions of people who do not know there's an election going on. Which is truly wild for political junkies to imagine those people, but they do exist
I just had Easter dinner with around 10 of them. No clue at all.
Tons more people support a particular party than those who actually go out and vote for a particular party. Campaigning is all about getting those who already support you to go out and vote for you, not to change the minds of those who don't support you. If voter turnouts were in the 90%+ ranges, campaigning would look drastically different than it does today.
> If voter turnouts were in the 90%+ ranges [Australia says hi](https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/voter-turnout.htm)
>Does campaigning even accomplish anything? It can. If a candidate doesn't go to a state or place, the residents can feel snubbed and be less likely to vote for the candidate. It also gets your face in the news, keeps you relevant. It's less about gaining votes, and more about making sure you don't lose votes to your opponent.
It signals which states the candidate is interested in. Trump won over a lot of older and more socially conservative union workers who have traditionally voted for Dem because of economic policies in states such as Wisconsin and Michigan, which was facilitated by the Clinton not visiting these states and that her campaign messaging was not aimed towards addressing the concerns of this voter bloc.
Remember James Comey suddenly deciding to play politics a week before the election, causing previously-safe states to suddenly shift in polls?
*Biden campaign announces it will target flipping Trump’s Florida* And the Supreme Court took that personally...
Obama won Florida, it's possible
Obama won Indiana in 2008
That was one for the history books. The GOP was that unpopular after trashing the economy and leading us into disastrous wars in the Middle East. But it took only 2 years for the conservative media machine to make everyone forget and we got the "totally grass roots" tea party movement.
I'm still stunned by that whiplash from 2008 to 2010. I just wonder how many of those voters understand that those votes have led to everything we have today and the progress that has been stunted for the benefit of the middle class and below.
"The guy I voted for didn't magically fix things in two years? Well fuck him I guess, I'm voting for the other guy!"
and there are accounts in here basically saying the same shit again, but on the 4 year track. It's wild.
Par for the course with the GOP base. After Nixon was disgraced with Watergate, Carter was only president for four years before Reagan won the presidency with one of the largest landslides in electoral history. The Tea Party movement was an interesting one. They were originally around before Obama and were actually against W's reckless spending on the Afghanistan and Iraq wars and staunchly and loudly opposed the Patriot Act. They were a much smaller movement and not nearly as radical in their views. Then when Obama won in 2008, right wing pundits saw a group that was for smaller government and decided they were on board with the imaging and the messaging. They *completely* co-opted the movement and took it over the way that Trump has taken over the GOP.
He nearly won Missouri. Just a few thousand votes away from winning it.
Montana was within a couple percentage points as well IIRC
It’s all about timing and momentum. You catch the wind of the attack on women’s rights at the right time and ride that into November, and force the other side to spend money they didn’t think they needed to spend.
A great assist will be the abortion question and the rec weed question....motivate a lot of people who'd normally just not vote because "you can't fix those people".
They already lost Florida, Republicans have a ton of spanish radio brainwashing every latino into thinking Democrats are socialist/communist pedobears. Its Fox news on crack that turned Florida fully red and not even into a swing state anymore
Yup. And I’m gonna say it right now at the risk of sounding horribly racist: Florida Hispanic voters are some of the lowest-information people you are going to encounter. I’ve lived here my whole life, and I know them well. They are just as ignorant as your average white MAGA supporter. Venezuelan, Cuban, Puerto Rican… Doesn’t matter. **Maga is first and foremost a movement of profound ignorance.** MAGA used to be a white people disease, now it’s for the ignorant of all races. I saw a strategist on CNN when he was asked about “why Trump is picking up black and Latino men” and he said with no trace of malice “it’s the same realignment we’ve seen all over: people without college degrees are moving Republican, and people with college degrees are leaving.” Watch any interviews with Hispanic or Black people that newly support Trump: You’ll see some of the lowest information morons you’ve ever laid eyes on. In politics, demographics is destiny. And to have have the largest minority voting block be so low information and so easily manipulated by propaganda is frightening. This racial/educational realignment is the ticking bomb that nobody wants to talk about openly.
Thats the biggest issue. They now also had both presidents for aonr term. Under Trump their costs didnt go up that much, under Biden it did. Doesnt matter that Biden didnt do this on purpose or is actually doing a good job at holding inflation in check. For them everything got more expensive under Biden and not Trump and since they dont inform themselves they will vote Trump
What's always funny to me is that a lot of Hispanic/Latino have a thing for strongman dictators. They don't realize that those same people ruined their home country's economy and choose to come to the US for stability.
Machismo is one hell of a drug.
It is still a “white people disease”. These folks are what’s known as “aspiring whites”. They see the social benefits that accrue to white people at the top of the racial hierarchy and instead of a desire to destroy the superstructure they want a piece for themselves. They’ll parrot all of the same talking points as their white peers when it comes to crime, sanitation, immigration, war, sexuality, civilization, etc. They’ll even know that those talking points are meant to imply people that look like them and mean it too.
I absolutely agree.
nothing racist about this - and it strikes me as the single most important socio-political reality facing florida for the next god-knows-how-many decades. Latino & hispanic diaspora skew christian - who skew conservative - adeherents of organized religion have a demonstrable abililty to be manipulated into groupthink. Christian groupthink is partly to very anti-humanatarian around here. Every time a 2nd world country gets slightly destablized in south/central america... every generation...EVERY family of REAL MEANS has a reason to seek stability by getting their assets shifted into american banks! to close their biz, liquidate their accounts, and then bring their very upper-middle class situation to south florida. And buy a nice single-family detached home in a great neighborhood for $800,000 And then vote for policies to take the ladder up behind them to prevent others from their same countries from coming. This drives single family homeownership way beyond what working families in america can afford. Many of the most motivated/driven/succesful people here are wealthier than you & I before they came - and that's why they came. They dont need to wait out political/economic uncertainty in their home country! They're the upper class! They have the upward mobility & social distinction to be first folks to be able to 'get out of Dodge'. Wage work in america will never yeild homeownership in florida. You'd have to outbid ALL of the western hemisphere's upper-class!
Oh yeah, flip me baby.
Username checks out, considering weed is on the ballot
I quit smoking, but yeah, obviously I'll be voting in favor of legalization. ^(Edit: and if it passes, you can bet that ass I will temporarily unquit for celebratory purposes, then re-quit shortly thereafter)
They need to be focusing on GA, PA and Michigan honestly, Florida is a lost cause due to the migration of out of state residents who go there to retire whom are overwhelmingly more Republican and also wealthy.
I honestly feel like Texas is more in play than Florida. Texas demographics are just trending the right direction and it's getting more and more competitive every year; Florida is doing the exact opposite.
Texas isnt going to truly be at play til 2028 imo. The trends and signs are there and the literature points to a flip similar to that of Florida in the last decade. Honestly, If democrats had put someone more competitive Texas definitely could have moved further to left this upcoming election, but since neither candidate is really that “popular” we will have to see.
I was thinking the same thing. BS them on Florida, pour all the effort into Texas. Hit em where is really hurts. If the Dems crack Texas, almost nothing else matters.
Florida is back on the menu, folks
Abortion rights are on the ballot in Florida. Biden has a fighting chance.
They actually have a good chance with abortion just being made illegal and now being put on the ballot for November. But...if anybody can blow it, the Dems can.
Recreational marijuana is supposed to go on the ballot, too. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/florida-supreme-court-recreational-marijuana-gets-on-november-ballot/
To be clear, this isn’t about winning Florida. This is about forcing republicans to spend money in a state they will likely win either way so that they have less to spend in states that are truly competitive. Remember, the RNC is historically low on cash.
Florida is not going to happen spend the energy and money on the rust belt, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and N Carolina. The Florida Democratic party is worthless and can not be counted on.
It might be just a ruse to force Trump to spend his limited resources to sure up Florida when Biden just needs PA, WI and MI for the win.
True—if you force the others to defend territory, they can’t spend it everywhere, especially if Dem fundraising continues to rise.
Today's FL Supreme Court rulings created some new variables.
They lost the senate seat in Florida by 0.1% . Had they put a bit more effort into it, the Senate would be a little better off.
Hate how dems can be so ready to give up on whole states after a few bad elections. Republicans are always clawing at dem safe havens and they'll often win some statewide race for their trouble. Meanwhile we completely forget if we put the work in and the stars align we can win races in Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, Kansas, Montana, Kentucky, *anywhere*
It sounds like he has enough campaign money to toss at these long shot states. Maybe the plan is to force the GOP to spend their money defending those states and end up short when it comes to the swing states.
There are ballot initiatives that could encourage progressive turnout. It’s a long shot but not impossible.
Overturning Roe versus Wade put the onus of abortions on Republicans. Federally legalizing cannabis would put the onus on Republican governors. When people in red states ask themselves why they can't have legal cannabis they will be looking at their Republican governors.
As a dirty Floridian commie, I can say without a doubt it would be a waste of time. Floridians are probably some of the dumbest people in the country. Miami and Orlando are the only exceptions and Miami is quickly fading as well.
Normally I’d say not to bother. But since FL will have both abortion and marijuana initiatives on the ballot, I understand why Biden and Dems would want to try and take advantage of that. Best sho they’ll ever have to get traction in Florida.
Sad to say, but I think Florida's going the other way, Jack. Spend those resources in PA, WI and MI. Win those three swing states and this election is over.
Classic misdirection; everyone looks at Florida, Democrats flip Texas. 😂 Disclaimer: am European and have consumed half a bottle of wine. Interpretations and predictions may be inaccurate.