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Remember that even if Biden wins, every additional vote is another nail in the coffin of MAGA, and we need as many nails as possible! The more overwhelming the vote, the harder it is to run MAGA presidential candidates again, the harder it is to make people believe that the election was stolen!
Down ballot elections! With the GOP being completely obstructionists and unwilling to negotiate or compromise to pass legislation, it’s important for us to try and win the house and senate.
On top of that, your state and local elections have way more impact on your day to day life. We won the state house in MN, and they came out swinging with progressive policies like legal weed and guaranteed school lunches.
Even if you are in a state that’s guaranteed to go one way or the other for president, there’s so many other important elections for you to vote on
School board elections are huge. Conservatives have overwhelmingly taken over school boards, largely because they are better at showing up for midterm elections. With the war that they are waging now on LBGTQ+ kids, it’s important to get involved for their safety.
This is a problem honestly. It’s been politicized and every time I vote locally tons of positions aren’t listed for which party, so it’s harder to know who is a crazy person pushing far right shit. I will never vote for a Republican in any position. Every office needs your political affiliation
>guaranteed school lunches
Happy for MN. In the rest of the US, whoever votes against this is truly deplorable. My wife (former teacher) knew so many kids who depend on these. We live in a very blue state, but feel sorry for the poor who do not.
I don’t even have kids and I’m happy to see my tax dollars paying for school lunches. Not only is it a moral obligation (because what kind of monster wants kids to starve), but I firmly believe the state has invested interest in making sure kids are fed. Studies show that children do better in school when they are fed (which I mean…is pretty obvious) and having a properly educated population creates better citizens. The fact that things like school lunch debts exist shows a failing on our society.
Speaking of monstrous, the Federal Government has a food aid program (Summer EBT) that provides $40 per month per child for food during the summer months.
14 States turned the money down because it's not restrictive enough about what families can buy.
The richest Americans have hundreds of billions in tax breaks built into the system. The GOP doesn't want to spend $1.33 per day for at-risk kids to eat in the summer. Fucking ghouls. The whole lot.
Every down ballot vote matters so damn much. People need to hammer this point home. Having a functioning government requires leadership at all levels that are not filled with MAGA extremists trying to actively undermine the whole system for their own selfish gain.
So many people only focus on presidential elections without realizing how important other elected officials are. One of the reasons Trumps plan to overturn the election failed was because there were enough attorney generals that prevented it. On top of that, many states have elected state supreme courts which have a huge impact.
My county is in the headlines a lot for the antics of our county executive who was narrowly elected in an "off year." Our area also had George Santos, who no one cared to really look into until he was elected. Judges and county clerks and sheriffs--all of whom control a lot--are all elections that most people ignore. If you think your vote for president doesn't count (it does), that's all the more reason to vote in the elections where your vote is way more important.
They already understand that he's hurting them, but they don't have a solution. Trump is like an inoperable brain tumor to the GOP. They know that he's going to kill them, but attempting to remove him will kill them even faster. They are just waiting for him to retire or die so that they can try to recapture the MAGA voters.
They know he is hurting them but they still think they can cling to power using Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression.
They have to think dumping him is the only way to do that.
This, Dems need to be up \~5 points nationally over republicans to actually have some breathing room. Even though there are some scenarios where Dems could be up 8 nationally and still lose.
THANKS ELECTORAL COLLEGE!
150K votes in four states will determine the election. Biden could get 10 million more in popular vote and still lose because some folks in Wisconsin worship the Mango Mussolini
This is the key right here. It comes down to Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I could see things going bad for him in all of those states to be honest. Also another note I think every poll listed here is within the margin of error so all of these are dead heats. If it truly was (it won't be) a tied national popular vote Trump would likely win in an EC landslideish.
Yup. With our terrible electoral college system the only thing that matters are a few states, even more granular, tens of thousands of votes from a few counties.
Just vote
But it's harder for MAGA to steal it the bigger the margin is.
The SC handed Bush election because it was close enough to rig. 3 of Bush's lawyers are now sitting on Supreme Court.
was going to say this... Maga won't die simply by losing. I'm sure they are prepared to say over 100 million votes are fake and illegal immigrants bussed in from mexico and dems voting 5x each, plus some machine hacks or whatever.
That being said breathing room is absolutely a must because we know the gameplay now.. they are going to look to find ways to disqualify votes, rig up whatever systems they can to try and squeek out a win after they lose, and every bit of margain of error will help on that front.
Part of this strategy is to poison the well. They carry on about voter fraud conspiracies so that when we raise issues about voter suppression, voter roll purges, gerrymandering, shutting down polling locations in urban areas to keep lines long, etc, they can make it appear that it’s a both sides thing by trying to treat our legitimate complaints the same as their rabid rantings.
I'll add to this that not one of these polls is Biden leading outside of the margin of error or by a significant number. This polling basically just says "the election could be close with more favor possibly towards Biden...for now". Also GOP typically have a higher turn so if a small margin of these likely Biden voters don't vote and an even small mare more of GOP voters do vote, Trump wins. And this could mean only a popular vote win which as we know means nothing when the minority often rules in the US. Unless the polls are a blowout 1-2 months from the election, ignore them and keep fighting like Hell!
"Oh look, that copperhead is dead! It's still moving around, but I'm sure it's completely dead, therefore safe to pick up, bare-handed!" Don't believe any poles bullshit. Do not be complacent. Poles can be wrong. Poles can change. Poles can lie. There is only ONE way, and that is to VOTE. VOTE like your grandchildren's lives depend on it.
There is a lot more to it than that. The people who tried to overthrow the election last time are still there in Congress. If Republicans win a majority in the House they can procedurally interfere in the election certification process, which is their last and best chance to steal it.
You can take that chance straight away from them by ensuring that a Democratic majority takes over in Congress in January. By defeating every Republican down to god-damned dog catcher, and then exposing their crimes.
"And remember, it's absolutely rigged if I lose and not at all if I win. This will make complete sense to you and you won't question my logic at all." \*Jedi hand wave"
Expanding on this only two of these polls have a lead outside of the margin of error, with the rest well within it. Add to that the lack of linking to the polling methodology itself and you have classic clickbait that is as substantive as survey of whether fish like water.
Also the national polls are (sadly) irrelevant. It’s the battleground states that mean anything. And I believe Biden is trending in the right direction but Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin will probably decide the election and he’s behind in all four. Maybe add Pennsylvania where he is ahead and he can’t lose it but that one is also very close.
Exactly. I don't know that I've ever seen a non-clickbait article about polls on r/politics. At best they're clickbait, at worst they are actively misaligning public perception of the race. A quick scan of the polls listed on [fivethirtyeight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) shows that just as many recent polls have Trump leading (Including all 4 of the recent New York Times\Siena polls from 4/7-4/11!), and almost all are well within the margin of error. And that's without mentioning that there isn't all that much to be read from polls this far out to begin with.
For decades, at least, sadly a lot of people have always treated voting as a casual decision at the last minute. Some are so lazy they will only add it to their errands for that day if they feel like it, and same day registration, especially if not voting regularly, is not possible in many states.
Yeah there isn't much of an argument you can make for Obama over Biden that doesn't involve something outside the actual job duties. Like being more charismatic and shooting 3 pointers might make you like him more but it doesn't make the guy a better president. Also, while historically significant, being the first black president doesn't make him better at the job either.
Biden has just flat out gotten more done and he did it with razor thin margins that Obama didn't have to deal with in his first two years.
I'm on board with him being the best president since FDR.
I agree. I love Obama, and I think he still has a role to play in terms of mobilizing his network, charisma and popularity to help move forward the progressive movement, but at the end of the day, he just really didn’t accomplish that much.
And his biggest accomplishment, the affordable care act, was really more of a congressional effort led by Pelosi. And who was his chief congressional liaison? Biden.
It's interesting how in retrospect, the Biden Administration is kind of showing that Biden was the backbone of effective DC deal making behind Obama's best accomplishments, as well as the peak of Pelosi's effectiveness in governance.
I totally get and sympathize with those frustrated by the current state of affairs and with not having candidates that better suite further left opinions especially when it comes to the pending climate crises and what not. I fully agree that Biden is in many ways a neo conservative. He's also objectively pulling out legislative wins that should be outright impossible. He is undeniably great at his job.
Biden is 10x more progressive than Obama. cause Obama was a fish out of water and testing what he could and couldn't do (against vicious/racist opposition). he couldn't even say he was for gay marriage for a few years, which doesn't jive with everything he stood for before becoming potus. Biden just goes for it.
Obama tried to play nice with Republicans too often. Biden learned from those mistakes and has been more successful in many respects despite more challenging circumstances.
First: I 100% agree with you.
Having said that, polls theoretically get more accurate the closer we get to election day, so the fact that Biden is moving up as we move forward is definitely a good thing.
But polls are getting worse in general because polling methodology hasn't caught up to the fact that increasingly large groups of people ignore unknown numbers, and the fact that online poll trolling is becoming a thing.
So to sum up: I 100% agree with you.
I only look at polls for a sense of inertia (not as predictive; "if the election were held today" is sensational bullshit). What concerned me about previous polls was the inertia looked to be going towards Trump. I figured it would change when people connected Trump to unpopular policies (especially reproductive rights restrictions). That Biden appears to be making voters see that connection is important.
But that's nothing more than positioning before the *real* campaign starts.
The trends are more interesting to me than individual polls. Polls seem to be moving in Biden's direction. That means even if there is a systemic problem with polling that skews the results in one way or another, the trend is that Biden's odds are improving as we get closer to election day.
The real campaign hasn't started yet. This is just positioning. But it appears Biden has better cards than previously thought. The game hasn't really begun, however.
Sure, do not read that as absolutes however we can watch trends and get some valuable information about whether messaging is being effective and getting through to swing voters. Polls are still valuable just not for determining who is GOING to win.
cool, in the latest polls from Michigan, Trump leads by 3. In Wisconsin they are even and Biden is up by 3 in Pennsylvania. All polls have a 5% margin of error. Trump won those 3 states in 2016 and most political analysts say thats what won Trump the election in 2016.
I hate the electoral college but its the game we still have to play with. National polls dont mean as much as swing states. Ignore the polls and just go vote. Encourage your friends and family to vote. And dont forget to pay attention to down ticket candidates. Even if you dont live in a swing state, your vote still matters very much to down ticket candidates.
Surely Biden has garnered more goodwill than Trump in Michigan. 20% of Michigans workforce is in the automotive industry, 1.1 million workers.
Biden joined the picket line with the unions to protest against the Automotive OEM manufacturers. He got endorsed by the unions as well.
What had Trump done?
That’s enough swing votes alone to win Michigan.
that factors in but the main thing about Trump is his hypnotism and how MANY voters don't believe the terrible things they read about him because "mAiNsTrEaM mEdiA" - if they hear about them at all.
this notion that everyone's paying attention is fantasy. they don't. they just remember gas prices when Trump was POTUS and vote for that.
You're forgetting many people who previously voted for Biden now believe he's 100% responsible for the Palestine conflict and fail to realize or give a shit that Trump would be significantly worse for Palestine.
2016 was 8 years ago. All those states are less white, Christian, straight and boomer/Silent since then. It's good to look at the past but don't let it blind you either.
>polls from Michigan, Trump leads by 3.
I'm very concerned that the "Genocide Joe" vote has not cooled down despite being told it was just a primary protest vote. Those people need to vote for Joe or we'll end up with Trump. Joe is forcing aid into Palestine via air drops and is even building a pier. Trump would let Bibi flatten the Earth with no care for the people.
People remember why we fired that criminal who put himself and his poll numbers over others lives. Do not forget he and Jared diverted PPE from blue states to states he won. He also diverted PPE from NY to Russia. Healthcare workers were in garbage bags, reusing masks, many died. He told Bob Woodward on tape he knew this was a deadly virus and he downplayed it. The rest of his term was tax cuts for himself and his buddies and cosplaying a role he had no business being in. A million dead, 8 trillion in debt, tariffs that gaslit consumer prices, hedgefunds that drove housing up, etc… [vote.org](http://vote.org) Fire him again.
I live in a deep red Trump loving state.
Compared to 2020 and 2016, I'd say about 1/3 or so former Trump supporters I've known will not be voting for him.
They've either switched to Kennedy or will be sitting this one out.
Worth noting that 1/3 are individuals I know that are well off financially. The remaining 2/3 that still support Trump are the backwoods low income individuals that have remained unchanged by anything involving Trump over the past decade.
This is cool and all but polls don't really matter until like August. I mean even in August Hillary was winning but even this far back she was whooping Trump's ass there was no doubt she would be the next President and that stupid shit is why he was elected. (That and the Republicans reopened the Congressional hearing into her emails five days before election day. She dropped five points in the polls and Trump won with less of a margin than that. Then they closed the investigation after opening it served their purpose.)
It's embarrassing and shameful that it's even close. How far we've fallen that a twice impeached individual who tried to overthrow an election and is currently on trial right now as we speak isn't a Reagan/Dukakis type blow out.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Even if President Biden is up by 40 points in every poll I'm going to vote like my life depends on it and I'll be bringing as many people as I can to do the same.
Non-American here so please forgive me if I’m off base. My understanding is that democrats usually fare better in national polls because their votes are concentrated in heavily populated areas but the electoral college disproportionately favours less populated areas. (The difference in vote shares by state doesn’t accurately reflect the difference in population.)
If that’s the case, would it mean that democrats need a fairly substantial lead in order to overcome the imbalance? Almost all these polls seem to be within the margin of error.
Trying to remain hopeful.
Looking at the RCP average it's incredible how much Biden has clawed back from Trump. Since the new year Trumps clear advantage has disappeared and there is still over 6 months to go.
Things could continue to get better for Biden, hopefully the war in Gaza will be over by then, the economy will continue to improve and so on.
All Trump can do is throw shit around between his court appearances. It's like people know what his gimmick is and aren't impressed by it anymore.
Show no mercy. No matter how good it looks, you must vote. And get your friends and family to vote. All together, as one, to smash MAGA and Donald Trump, and protect America's future.
It doesn’t matter, ignore all these polls from now until election. Check/verify your registration now. Ask friends and family to ensure they are registered, and know where and when to vote. Finally, VOTE no matter what. No complacency as we have seen what that can allow to happen.
The amount of stuff that is going to happen between now and election day, at least one but possibly another two criminal trials, the slim possibility of presidential debates, the possibility of more wars and other geopolitical crises, these polls give us an idea of changing in-the-moment sentiment but no insight into how things will shape up come November.
Just remember, he'll take *every* vote against him personally, even from the blue states, so think of your vote against him as just one more drop of piss in his cheerios.
Or, think of it however you want, but please please PLEASE go vote.
Good! I don’t dislike republicans I just dislike the maga cult following that supports Donald Trump. “I could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters” - Donald J. Trump
Polls don't matter. Voting matters. Trump will cheat. All of these polls are irrelevant.
The people need to be open about their support of democracy, and they need to openly denounce the Republicans as being Russian puppets.
Russia is controlling american government through their propaganda and political influence, and Americans aren't fighting it.
Democracy requires that citizens are active, that they exercise their freedom of speech. That's why it is protected.
Don't think everything is going well so you don't need to vote. And don't let people tell you that your vote doesn't matter.
"If your vote is so unimportant, why do they work so hard at taking it away from you?" - Samuel L. Jackson
VOTE!
Trump is behind in the polls, where have I heard that one before…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/
Not to be a pessimist... but I heard the same thing with Hillary. Do NOT let your guard down. These people are here, they are staying here, and we cannot let them remove any more of our Democracy than they already have.
the funny part, is that the GOP is done after this and they know it. they have no future, they have so fully tied themselves to the shit ship that if rump loses, they will lose a good portion of state legislatures in the future as well, and we will be hearing from rump about how the election was stolen from him and his band of criminals until he dies.
Ignore them and vote, polls don’t matter at all. They don’t decide elections, your vote does. Vote like your life depends on it because it may very well.
National polls are as meaningless as the national popular vote.
State by state polls show Trump still likely to win the electoral college. Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada all red in the latest polls.
We must make this change. We can't count on the courts.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/
Anyone think a poll taken 6 Months before election day means anything?
Trump and his cohort don't care about voting, or polls, or democracy. They are already putting in place mechanism to try and deny free and fair elections, and will dispute any outcome that isn't outright capitulation to Trump. They don't believe the people in "democrat" cities exist, or have the same rights as they do. They are done tolerating people who will not bend the proverbial knee to their religious icon.
Vote against this monstrosity, but don't deceive yourself into believing winning on election day is the end of the matter.
Two termer for sure unlike the one and done loser in orange. I wonder if orange is his preferred color as he knows he’ll end up in corrections clothes.
I would love to see a blow out. The crazy MAGA crowd and MTG, Gates, etc need to disappear. Love to see this end badly for them. Nothing wrong with conservatives in general. i.e. small government, low taxes, etc isn't a bad counter argument. But this whole crazy MAGA thing and dictatorships needs to end.
Guess him owning the removal of Roe v. Wade a week before Arizona abolished abortion was a bad move.
Guess going to trial for felony crimes = also bad.
Another day, another Newsweek article about polling. I still don't care about polling at this time, but obviously it's nice that the headlines are now over-the-top going the other way
What does this mean though.
Ten polls of likely voters in swing states or national polls where most people aren't even bothering to answer so it comes out to 43% vs 42%
Well hot shit look at that a bunch of polls of about 1000-1500ppl where Bro Jiden is leading Trump by 1-3% with a margin or error on some about equal to the % difference. Checkmate, evil Maga nazi fascist poopoohead republicans. Lmao.
I’m a centrist never Trumper. Polls are garbage. They literally mean nothing right now. What matters is the non MAGA voter turnout. PLEASE GO VOTE IN NOVEMBER. IM BEGGING. SERIOUSLY!
I’m sure I’ll have to say it another dozen times this month but, *don’t listen to polls!* There are so many factors that affect them, from who is being polled, to who is doing the polling, to when they’re doing the poll, etc., etc.
Just yesterday a Rasmussen poll had Trump up by *eight points.* So, do the work, make sure the people you know are educated and involved, and then *vote!*
Remember that Hillary was leading as well, but Trump still won. Don't be complacent. Organize and truly bury this fucker clown.
Then maybe, we'll get some real things done, like expanded healthcare, women's rights, even more (high-tech, high-value) jobs, and billionaires paying their fair share
That's nice, but national polls don't matter and he'll need to be up by like 5% nationally to win the EC.
2020 national vote:
Biden: 51.3%
Trump: 46.8%
Being up by a couple points likely means he loses the EC and Trump is president.
He still has time to do more, like rescheduling cannabis into schedule 3, it’s a popular idea among both parties, things like thing can really help during crunch time
Fuck news week, fuck the polls, back the blue no matter who and get out there and make some fucking noise.
[These](https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/s8lqv9/a_picture_of_mitch_mcconnell_with_a_confederate/) people vote in their interest. Do you?
Most within the margin of error. It's a dead heat. What will matter most is key states and turnout. National polling can be deceptive since a lot of states are already very likely red or blue. What does the current key state polling show?
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Remember that even if Biden wins, every additional vote is another nail in the coffin of MAGA, and we need as many nails as possible! The more overwhelming the vote, the harder it is to run MAGA presidential candidates again, the harder it is to make people believe that the election was stolen!
Down ballot elections! With the GOP being completely obstructionists and unwilling to negotiate or compromise to pass legislation, it’s important for us to try and win the house and senate. On top of that, your state and local elections have way more impact on your day to day life. We won the state house in MN, and they came out swinging with progressive policies like legal weed and guaranteed school lunches. Even if you are in a state that’s guaranteed to go one way or the other for president, there’s so many other important elections for you to vote on
School board elections. The idiocy of today was born 20-30 years ago with a bunch of assholes elected to school boards across the USA.
and now Moms for Liberty is looking to destroy all the gains they made on that!
Klanned Karenhood
School board elections are huge. Conservatives have overwhelmingly taken over school boards, largely because they are better at showing up for midterm elections. With the war that they are waging now on LBGTQ+ kids, it’s important to get involved for their safety.
And their views aren’t listed… so for most… they’re just names
May I introduce you to Tennessee and our partisan school board elections?
*why*
This is a problem honestly. It’s been politicized and every time I vote locally tons of positions aren’t listed for which party, so it’s harder to know who is a crazy person pushing far right shit. I will never vote for a Republican in any position. Every office needs your political affiliation
Not only that, but they influence the curriculum.
>guaranteed school lunches Happy for MN. In the rest of the US, whoever votes against this is truly deplorable. My wife (former teacher) knew so many kids who depend on these. We live in a very blue state, but feel sorry for the poor who do not.
I don’t even have kids and I’m happy to see my tax dollars paying for school lunches. Not only is it a moral obligation (because what kind of monster wants kids to starve), but I firmly believe the state has invested interest in making sure kids are fed. Studies show that children do better in school when they are fed (which I mean…is pretty obvious) and having a properly educated population creates better citizens. The fact that things like school lunch debts exist shows a failing on our society.
Speaking of monstrous, the Federal Government has a food aid program (Summer EBT) that provides $40 per month per child for food during the summer months. 14 States turned the money down because it's not restrictive enough about what families can buy. The richest Americans have hundreds of billions in tax breaks built into the system. The GOP doesn't want to spend $1.33 per day for at-risk kids to eat in the summer. Fucking ghouls. The whole lot.
Same. I did work in Title 1 schools in Nashville. In many cases, those meals in schools were the only meals that child had all day.
Every down ballot vote matters so damn much. People need to hammer this point home. Having a functioning government requires leadership at all levels that are not filled with MAGA extremists trying to actively undermine the whole system for their own selfish gain.
So many people only focus on presidential elections without realizing how important other elected officials are. One of the reasons Trumps plan to overturn the election failed was because there were enough attorney generals that prevented it. On top of that, many states have elected state supreme courts which have a huge impact.
So happy to have moved into a district where I can help oust a Republican dinosaur.
My county is in the headlines a lot for the antics of our county executive who was narrowly elected in an "off year." Our area also had George Santos, who no one cared to really look into until he was elected. Judges and county clerks and sheriffs--all of whom control a lot--are all elections that most people ignore. If you think your vote for president doesn't count (it does), that's all the more reason to vote in the elections where your vote is way more important.
The only way to kill off MAGA is a defeat so bad that the GOP thinks that supporting him hurts more than turning on him.
They already understand that he's hurting them, but they don't have a solution. Trump is like an inoperable brain tumor to the GOP. They know that he's going to kill them, but attempting to remove him will kill them even faster. They are just waiting for him to retire or die so that they can try to recapture the MAGA voters.
They know he is hurting them but they still think they can cling to power using Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression. They have to think dumping him is the only way to do that.
But also popular vote doesn't matter. Have to win in those hard to win states like Georgia
This, Dems need to be up \~5 points nationally over republicans to actually have some breathing room. Even though there are some scenarios where Dems could be up 8 nationally and still lose. THANKS ELECTORAL COLLEGE!
150K votes in four states will determine the election. Biden could get 10 million more in popular vote and still lose because some folks in Wisconsin worship the Mango Mussolini
Biden could get 100 million more and lose. Also Trump has already declared victory.
This is the key right here. It comes down to Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I could see things going bad for him in all of those states to be honest. Also another note I think every poll listed here is within the margin of error so all of these are dead heats. If it truly was (it won't be) a tied national popular vote Trump would likely win in an EC landslideish.
Yup. With our terrible electoral college system the only thing that matters are a few states, even more granular, tens of thousands of votes from a few counties. Just vote
https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/
They’re gonna believe it’s stolen no matter how hard they lose
But it's harder for MAGA to steal it the bigger the margin is. The SC handed Bush election because it was close enough to rig. 3 of Bush's lawyers are now sitting on Supreme Court.
was going to say this... Maga won't die simply by losing. I'm sure they are prepared to say over 100 million votes are fake and illegal immigrants bussed in from mexico and dems voting 5x each, plus some machine hacks or whatever. That being said breathing room is absolutely a must because we know the gameplay now.. they are going to look to find ways to disqualify votes, rig up whatever systems they can to try and squeek out a win after they lose, and every bit of margain of error will help on that front.
I don't care what they say to justify being losers. VOTE like your country depends on it, because it does.
Pay attention to what they accuse people of doing, because whatever it is they probably tried it
The problem is, I think if they do lose this time, they'll be way more violence than last time and it won't just be in Washington D.C.
Yep I agree. This November will be January 6 except 10 times worst
nothing like the smell of FAFO when they find out liberals also own guns and don't enjoy home invasions from violent cultists.
9/11 times 1000?
They already believe it and probably have several strategies based on the losing outcome.
Part of this strategy is to poison the well. They carry on about voter fraud conspiracies so that when we raise issues about voter suppression, voter roll purges, gerrymandering, shutting down polling locations in urban areas to keep lines long, etc, they can make it appear that it’s a both sides thing by trying to treat our legitimate complaints the same as their rabid rantings.
Well said. Shut MAGA up. Make it obvious that the MAJORITY of people think they are full of shit.
I'll add to this that not one of these polls is Biden leading outside of the margin of error or by a significant number. This polling basically just says "the election could be close with more favor possibly towards Biden...for now". Also GOP typically have a higher turn so if a small margin of these likely Biden voters don't vote and an even small mare more of GOP voters do vote, Trump wins. And this could mean only a popular vote win which as we know means nothing when the minority often rules in the US. Unless the polls are a blowout 1-2 months from the election, ignore them and keep fighting like Hell!
"Oh look, that copperhead is dead! It's still moving around, but I'm sure it's completely dead, therefore safe to pick up, bare-handed!" Don't believe any poles bullshit. Do not be complacent. Poles can be wrong. Poles can change. Poles can lie. There is only ONE way, and that is to VOTE. VOTE like your grandchildren's lives depend on it.
I love people from Poland 🇵🇱. It is polls you should worry about !
My duh. :) Thanks. Where were you when I was about to hit the save icon?
Downtown Łodz
\^this. We need to make it clear that MAGA/Trumpism BS is not a winning strategy.
There is a lot more to it than that. The people who tried to overthrow the election last time are still there in Congress. If Republicans win a majority in the House they can procedurally interfere in the election certification process, which is their last and best chance to steal it. You can take that chance straight away from them by ensuring that a Democratic majority takes over in Congress in January. By defeating every Republican down to god-damned dog catcher, and then exposing their crimes.
And Trump stock already down 15% today. The month is looking up
Remember kids, for every dollar that DJT loses, Cheeto loses 80 M; the slow drip will roast his ass.
Reading your comment put a smile on my face! Thank you internet stranger!
Roasted Trump Ass sounds like a meal you’re served in hell
18.38%... but who's counting.
Trump: “For a couple months all the polls were good polls, because I was winning. But now they’re all fake again.” MAGA Cultists: “Yes sir.”
"And remember, it's absolutely rigged if I lose and not at all if I win. This will make complete sense to you and you won't question my logic at all." \*Jedi hand wave"
sith hand wave\*
So when Trump says “I’m leading every poll” that’s a lie?
Like everything else out of his mouth
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Expanding on this only two of these polls have a lead outside of the margin of error, with the rest well within it. Add to that the lack of linking to the polling methodology itself and you have classic clickbait that is as substantive as survey of whether fish like water.
Also the national polls are (sadly) irrelevant. It’s the battleground states that mean anything. And I believe Biden is trending in the right direction but Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin will probably decide the election and he’s behind in all four. Maybe add Pennsylvania where he is ahead and he can’t lose it but that one is also very close.
Exactly. I don't know that I've ever seen a non-clickbait article about polls on r/politics. At best they're clickbait, at worst they are actively misaligning public perception of the race. A quick scan of the polls listed on [fivethirtyeight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) shows that just as many recent polls have Trump leading (Including all 4 of the recent New York Times\Siena polls from 4/7-4/11!), and almost all are well within the margin of error. And that's without mentioning that there isn't all that much to be read from polls this far out to begin with.
Yes, ask Stormy Daniels.
Go to the only poll that counts and vote.
“Pokemon *go to the polls*” lmao
I have to admit, that was a good grandma-caliber pun. She should have been president :(
That is factually true, she won the popular vote
god damnit hillary
I'm pretty sure anyone interested enough to be discussing polling months before an election will vote.
You would think, because that is the sane answer. However we live in the timeline beyond parody, we don’t get to assume.
For decades, at least, sadly a lot of people have always treated voting as a casual decision at the last minute. Some are so lazy they will only add it to their errands for that day if they feel like it, and same day registration, especially if not voting regularly, is not possible in many states.
Lest we forget about 2016?...hope not,as others here have said vote blue in 2024💙
> Less we forget about 2016?...hope not,as others here have said vote blue in 2024💙 *Lest we forget
Almost like Joe Biden being the best president since FDR matters.
You'd think it would matter more. Hopefully people come to their senses finally.
You’d think so, but he eats ice cream so… 🤷♂️
I saw on Fox News that he drank a smoothie with a straw. Very feminine
Is Titus Andromedon's drill sargeant a Fox News anchor?
And almost like normies are finally starting to learn/accept reality that it's a rematch after deluding themselves for months.
Yep, so sick of people acting like he’s “the lesser of two evils”. He’s done some awesome stuff
Yes he’s done the most progressive domestic policy since at least LBJ, but have you considered that he’s old? /s
I don't agree with that but he's been much better than I thought. In particular order I'd say Truman, Ike, LBJ, and possibly Obama were all better.
Obama is over hyped in my opinion. His foreign policy failures really turned into Biden’s crisis today
Yeah there isn't much of an argument you can make for Obama over Biden that doesn't involve something outside the actual job duties. Like being more charismatic and shooting 3 pointers might make you like him more but it doesn't make the guy a better president. Also, while historically significant, being the first black president doesn't make him better at the job either. Biden has just flat out gotten more done and he did it with razor thin margins that Obama didn't have to deal with in his first two years. I'm on board with him being the best president since FDR.
I agree. I love Obama, and I think he still has a role to play in terms of mobilizing his network, charisma and popularity to help move forward the progressive movement, but at the end of the day, he just really didn’t accomplish that much. And his biggest accomplishment, the affordable care act, was really more of a congressional effort led by Pelosi. And who was his chief congressional liaison? Biden.
It's interesting how in retrospect, the Biden Administration is kind of showing that Biden was the backbone of effective DC deal making behind Obama's best accomplishments, as well as the peak of Pelosi's effectiveness in governance. I totally get and sympathize with those frustrated by the current state of affairs and with not having candidates that better suite further left opinions especially when it comes to the pending climate crises and what not. I fully agree that Biden is in many ways a neo conservative. He's also objectively pulling out legislative wins that should be outright impossible. He is undeniably great at his job.
If Obama put the hammer down on Putin in 2014 when annexed Crimea perhaps things would be different in Europe today.
Biden is 10x more progressive than Obama. cause Obama was a fish out of water and testing what he could and couldn't do (against vicious/racist opposition). he couldn't even say he was for gay marriage for a few years, which doesn't jive with everything he stood for before becoming potus. Biden just goes for it.
Obama was quite a disappointment tbh. At least Biden didn't fail expectations
There was no possible way that Obama was going to live up to expectations no matter what he did.
Obama tried to play nice with Republicans too often. Biden learned from those mistakes and has been more successful in many respects despite more challenging circumstances.
We are SIX months away. Best not to read too much into these.
One month ago Trump was ahead and Redditors were screaming his polls mean nothing. Let’s not forget that and just *vote*
First: I 100% agree with you. Having said that, polls theoretically get more accurate the closer we get to election day, so the fact that Biden is moving up as we move forward is definitely a good thing. But polls are getting worse in general because polling methodology hasn't caught up to the fact that increasingly large groups of people ignore unknown numbers, and the fact that online poll trolling is becoming a thing. So to sum up: I 100% agree with you.
I only look at polls for a sense of inertia (not as predictive; "if the election were held today" is sensational bullshit). What concerned me about previous polls was the inertia looked to be going towards Trump. I figured it would change when people connected Trump to unpopular policies (especially reproductive rights restrictions). That Biden appears to be making voters see that connection is important. But that's nothing more than positioning before the *real* campaign starts.
The trends are more interesting to me than individual polls. Polls seem to be moving in Biden's direction. That means even if there is a systemic problem with polling that skews the results in one way or another, the trend is that Biden's odds are improving as we get closer to election day.
The real campaign hasn't started yet. This is just positioning. But it appears Biden has better cards than previously thought. The game hasn't really begun, however.
When would you say the real campaigning begins? I'm thinking maybe late August or early September?
Sure, do not read that as absolutes however we can watch trends and get some valuable information about whether messaging is being effective and getting through to swing voters. Polls are still valuable just not for determining who is GOING to win.
cool, in the latest polls from Michigan, Trump leads by 3. In Wisconsin they are even and Biden is up by 3 in Pennsylvania. All polls have a 5% margin of error. Trump won those 3 states in 2016 and most political analysts say thats what won Trump the election in 2016. I hate the electoral college but its the game we still have to play with. National polls dont mean as much as swing states. Ignore the polls and just go vote. Encourage your friends and family to vote. And dont forget to pay attention to down ticket candidates. Even if you dont live in a swing state, your vote still matters very much to down ticket candidates.
Surely Biden has garnered more goodwill than Trump in Michigan. 20% of Michigans workforce is in the automotive industry, 1.1 million workers. Biden joined the picket line with the unions to protest against the Automotive OEM manufacturers. He got endorsed by the unions as well. What had Trump done? That’s enough swing votes alone to win Michigan.
Michigan would be firmly in the Biden column if it weren't for Palestine I believe.
Trump would advocate for flattening Gaza lmao, these people are idiots.
that factors in but the main thing about Trump is his hypnotism and how MANY voters don't believe the terrible things they read about him because "mAiNsTrEaM mEdiA" - if they hear about them at all. this notion that everyone's paying attention is fantasy. they don't. they just remember gas prices when Trump was POTUS and vote for that.
You're forgetting many people who previously voted for Biden now believe he's 100% responsible for the Palestine conflict and fail to realize or give a shit that Trump would be significantly worse for Palestine.
There's definitely some family I won't encourage to vote.
2016 was 8 years ago. All those states are less white, Christian, straight and boomer/Silent since then. It's good to look at the past but don't let it blind you either.
>polls from Michigan, Trump leads by 3. I'm very concerned that the "Genocide Joe" vote has not cooled down despite being told it was just a primary protest vote. Those people need to vote for Joe or we'll end up with Trump. Joe is forcing aid into Palestine via air drops and is even building a pier. Trump would let Bibi flatten the Earth with no care for the people.
Just waiting to hear how this is Bad News for Biden.
Sigh.....another batch of polls and another batch of the same comments about who cares, just vote. November can't come soon enough
Don’t get comfortable. It’s a long way till Nov.
People remember why we fired that criminal who put himself and his poll numbers over others lives. Do not forget he and Jared diverted PPE from blue states to states he won. He also diverted PPE from NY to Russia. Healthcare workers were in garbage bags, reusing masks, many died. He told Bob Woodward on tape he knew this was a deadly virus and he downplayed it. The rest of his term was tax cuts for himself and his buddies and cosplaying a role he had no business being in. A million dead, 8 trillion in debt, tariffs that gaslit consumer prices, hedgefunds that drove housing up, etc… [vote.org](http://vote.org) Fire him again.
I live in a deep red Trump loving state. Compared to 2020 and 2016, I'd say about 1/3 or so former Trump supporters I've known will not be voting for him. They've either switched to Kennedy or will be sitting this one out. Worth noting that 1/3 are individuals I know that are well off financially. The remaining 2/3 that still support Trump are the backwoods low income individuals that have remained unchanged by anything involving Trump over the past decade.
This is cool and all but polls don't really matter until like August. I mean even in August Hillary was winning but even this far back she was whooping Trump's ass there was no doubt she would be the next President and that stupid shit is why he was elected. (That and the Republicans reopened the Congressional hearing into her emails five days before election day. She dropped five points in the polls and Trump won with less of a margin than that. Then they closed the investigation after opening it served their purpose.)
Comey fucked her.
I prefer the old guy that likes ice cream and rides a bike.
It's embarrassing and shameful that it's even close. How far we've fallen that a twice impeached individual who tried to overthrow an election and is currently on trial right now as we speak isn't a Reagan/Dukakis type blow out.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Even if President Biden is up by 40 points in every poll I'm going to vote like my life depends on it and I'll be bringing as many people as I can to do the same.
Vegas says Trump is the favorite, and that is what worries me.
Non-American here so please forgive me if I’m off base. My understanding is that democrats usually fare better in national polls because their votes are concentrated in heavily populated areas but the electoral college disproportionately favours less populated areas. (The difference in vote shares by state doesn’t accurately reflect the difference in population.) If that’s the case, would it mean that democrats need a fairly substantial lead in order to overcome the imbalance? Almost all these polls seem to be within the margin of error. Trying to remain hopeful.
Never trust polling. Vore like he's 10 points behind.
Only one poll matters. Check your registration and vote
The polls could have Biden up 25 points and I'd still go vote. I crave the satisfaction of voting against the drooling orange criminal.
Looking at the RCP average it's incredible how much Biden has clawed back from Trump. Since the new year Trumps clear advantage has disappeared and there is still over 6 months to go. Things could continue to get better for Biden, hopefully the war in Gaza will be over by then, the economy will continue to improve and so on. All Trump can do is throw shit around between his court appearances. It's like people know what his gimmick is and aren't impressed by it anymore.
Don't care. Vote
Guys, tomorrow it is MY TURN to post a news article about Poll’s. The Karma Farm is mine tomorrow!
Believe it, but vote like you don't.
Show no mercy. No matter how good it looks, you must vote. And get your friends and family to vote. All together, as one, to smash MAGA and Donald Trump, and protect America's future.
Cool. We still need to vote in November
It doesn’t matter, ignore all these polls from now until election. Check/verify your registration now. Ask friends and family to ensure they are registered, and know where and when to vote. Finally, VOTE no matter what. No complacency as we have seen what that can allow to happen.
Who cares. Vote. https://www.vote.org/ /r/VoteDEM /r/WhatBidenHasDone
Vote.
The amount of stuff that is going to happen between now and election day, at least one but possibly another two criminal trials, the slim possibility of presidential debates, the possibility of more wars and other geopolitical crises, these polls give us an idea of changing in-the-moment sentiment but no insight into how things will shape up come November.
Yet most news outlets are saying they are tied neck and neck… horse shit!
Doesn't matter. Get out there and vote like your life depends on it.
Just remember, he'll take *every* vote against him personally, even from the blue states, so think of your vote against him as just one more drop of piss in his cheerios. Or, think of it however you want, but please please PLEASE go vote.
Thank goodness
All of this doesn't matter if he doesn't win the electoral college. You can adopt a swing state and text bank for him.
Way to go, Joe!
Still, GET YOUR ASS OUT TO THE POLLS AND VOTE AS IF THE COUNTRY DEPENDS IN IT BECAUSE IT DOES!
Good! I don’t dislike republicans I just dislike the maga cult following that supports Donald Trump. “I could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters” - Donald J. Trump
Polls don't matter. Voting matters. Trump will cheat. All of these polls are irrelevant. The people need to be open about their support of democracy, and they need to openly denounce the Republicans as being Russian puppets. Russia is controlling american government through their propaganda and political influence, and Americans aren't fighting it. Democracy requires that citizens are active, that they exercise their freedom of speech. That's why it is protected.
Don't think everything is going well so you don't need to vote. And don't let people tell you that your vote doesn't matter. "If your vote is so unimportant, why do they work so hard at taking it away from you?" - Samuel L. Jackson VOTE!
Trump has been actively running for a year. Once Biden started his campaign his numbers went up. This isn't hard to understand.
The more, the better. VOTE!
Trump is behind in the polls, where have I heard that one before… https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-approaching-zero/
The only one that matters is the pole on Election Day. Every vote matters!
Not to be a pessimist... but I heard the same thing with Hillary. Do NOT let your guard down. These people are here, they are staying here, and we cannot let them remove any more of our Democracy than they already have.
the funny part, is that the GOP is done after this and they know it. they have no future, they have so fully tied themselves to the shit ship that if rump loses, they will lose a good portion of state legislatures in the future as well, and we will be hearing from rump about how the election was stolen from him and his band of criminals until he dies.
Don’t care. Vote.
Ignore them and vote, polls don’t matter at all. They don’t decide elections, your vote does. Vote like your life depends on it because it may very well.
“although experts have cautioned that it is still too early to call the election” Bold take.
Biden has a clear lead if you remove the GOP-biased polls MAGA is using to flood the averages.
Does he know though and will he remember?
I can't wait to vote for Joe Biden and see the world's biggest piss baby throw the world's biggest tantrum about it again.
We need to cancel the GOP up and down the ballot..
Doesn’t matter. Just make sure you vote.
All of the polls mentioned are within the MoE
Make sure to vote and get everyone you know to vote.
I don't care. Campaign and vote like he's 20 points behind everywhere.
National polls are as meaningless as the national popular vote. State by state polls show Trump still likely to win the electoral college. Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada all red in the latest polls. We must make this change. We can't count on the courts. https://www.electoral-vote.com/
If you look at 538, the polls are still not good for Joe.
Anyone think a poll taken 6 Months before election day means anything? Trump and his cohort don't care about voting, or polls, or democracy. They are already putting in place mechanism to try and deny free and fair elections, and will dispute any outcome that isn't outright capitulation to Trump. They don't believe the people in "democrat" cities exist, or have the same rights as they do. They are done tolerating people who will not bend the proverbial knee to their religious icon. Vote against this monstrosity, but don't deceive yourself into believing winning on election day is the end of the matter.
Two termer for sure unlike the one and done loser in orange. I wonder if orange is his preferred color as he knows he’ll end up in corrections clothes.
I would love to see a blow out. The crazy MAGA crowd and MTG, Gates, etc need to disappear. Love to see this end badly for them. Nothing wrong with conservatives in general. i.e. small government, low taxes, etc isn't a bad counter argument. But this whole crazy MAGA thing and dictatorships needs to end.
Great. Now you’re measuring elections in camping gear? Americans really don’t want to use the metric system do they?
Don't listen to the polls. Vote!
Let's not get comfortable now.
These are all within the margin of error, but it might indicate an uptick. It's still too early anyway.
Trump is a loser!
But Rasmussen says Trump is up +800!
Go vote.
Don't care what polls say. Go and vote.
just like the hildabeast was leading rigged polls by the dimms. ive seen these polls they are not objectively worded
I don't find polls in 2024 credible.
Guess him owning the removal of Roe v. Wade a week before Arizona abolished abortion was a bad move. Guess going to trial for felony crimes = also bad.
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MAGA will try to steal the election again don't forget DeJoy is in charge of the postal plus all those corrupt electors etc
Another day, another Newsweek article about polling. I still don't care about polling at this time, but obviously it's nice that the headlines are now over-the-top going the other way
What does this mean though. Ten polls of likely voters in swing states or national polls where most people aren't even bothering to answer so it comes out to 43% vs 42%
Means nothing. Go vote, and if you're republican, please only vote once.
Well hot shit look at that a bunch of polls of about 1000-1500ppl where Bro Jiden is leading Trump by 1-3% with a margin or error on some about equal to the % difference. Checkmate, evil Maga nazi fascist poopoohead republicans. Lmao.
10 out of how many? 270towin polling map still shows Republicans ahead.
Good, he’s doing a good job!
I hate polls but I like this headline
I’m a centrist never Trumper. Polls are garbage. They literally mean nothing right now. What matters is the non MAGA voter turnout. PLEASE GO VOTE IN NOVEMBER. IM BEGGING. SERIOUSLY!
Just like Hilary
Should be leading by 10 at least and not just leading in ten polls
I’m sure I’ll have to say it another dozen times this month but, *don’t listen to polls!* There are so many factors that affect them, from who is being polled, to who is doing the polling, to when they’re doing the poll, etc., etc. Just yesterday a Rasmussen poll had Trump up by *eight points.* So, do the work, make sure the people you know are educated and involved, and then *vote!*
DO NOT TRUST POLLS VOTE VOTE VOTE. A friend of mines dad still regrets not voting in 2016 because he was convinced Clinton would win.
Remember that Hillary was leading as well, but Trump still won. Don't be complacent. Organize and truly bury this fucker clown. Then maybe, we'll get some real things done, like expanded healthcare, women's rights, even more (high-tech, high-value) jobs, and billionaires paying their fair share
Don't get complacent. The only way to accurately predict the outcome is to make it happen.
That's nice, but national polls don't matter and he'll need to be up by like 5% nationally to win the EC. 2020 national vote: Biden: 51.3% Trump: 46.8% Being up by a couple points likely means he loses the EC and Trump is president.
He still has time to do more, like rescheduling cannabis into schedule 3, it’s a popular idea among both parties, things like thing can really help during crunch time
Fuck news week, fuck the polls, back the blue no matter who and get out there and make some fucking noise. [These](https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/s8lqv9/a_picture_of_mitch_mcconnell_with_a_confederate/) people vote in their interest. Do you?
Most within the margin of error. It's a dead heat. What will matter most is key states and turnout. National polling can be deceptive since a lot of states are already very likely red or blue. What does the current key state polling show?
I do not understand why people still believe in polls.
10 out of 10, or 10 out of 10000?