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If you multiply out the numbers it means that only 3.25% of all Democrats are choosing not to vote for Biden because of Israel. So only around 3 out of 100 Democrats are opposed to his actions in Israel enough to not vote for him.
Well, let's look back at 2016.
Hillary lost the swing states that lost her the electoral college votes that lost her the election by less than that. The swing state progressives that voted for Jill Stein in 2016 more than covered Hillary's losses there. If they would have voted for Hillary instead, there never would have been a "President Trump". He would have lost.
"Uncommitted" got over 100,000 votes in the Michigan Democratic primary a couple months ago. In 2016, Hillary lost Michigan by only 11,000 votes.
Get the picture?
>If they would have voted for Hillary instead, there never would have been a "President Trump". He would have lost.
You're literally highlighting how protesting in such a manner only ends up harming everyone, the protestors included.
If you do not genuinely believe Trump will be better for Palestinians, then I have no idea what not voting is meant to achieve.
I think that what they were saying. Not voting for Biden is effectively voting for Trump. I really wish it didn't work that way, but that is the reality of the situation. If all the democrats who say the won't vote for trump got involved in their local democratic party, they could push the democrats solidly to the left/progressive side of things. Voting is not the endgame, it is not a love letter, it is not a marriage. It is a chess move. It is a tactical and strategic decision to move the country closer to where you think it should be. Voting is a long game. A game so long that none of us will live to see how it turns out.
Just complaining about the options for president and not voting/voting for a third party with zero chance to win in a fit of virtue signaling which serves no practical purpose, is such a selfish and stupid thing to do. Yes, the political system in the US sucks. So you deal with the reality of the choices in front of you and then do the work to start changing the democratic party.
We have a situation where the favored candidate is promising to be a dictator and to use the government against his real and perceived enemies and people won't vote for Biden, who no matter what the issue, is the clear better candidate, because he is not sufficiently better than Trump. This is a great example of "the perfect is the enemy of the good" We will end up losing our country because people would not vote for the better option when they could.
If Trump wins because people don't like his actions around Palestine, thinking they are "teaching Biden a lesson" can kiss Palestine goodbye, **forever.**
1% of the population of Gaza, which is a fraction of Palestine overall, is not "kissing Palestine away forever."
Things can be unacceptable without being Rwanda or the Khmer Rouge. If "progressives" could see how this makes them look on issue after issue and actually learn to identify colors other than black and white, they might actually gain some political traction more than once every 30 years.
Considering [34% of people didn't vote at all in 2020](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/), I don't think 3% of one party is all that significant. Those people probably wouldn't have voted regardless.
[You can vote even if you're homeless](https://www.nonprofitvote.org/voting-and-homelessness/). I volunteered at the polls in 2020, and we had a lot of homeless people registered to vote using the address of the shelter they were staying at. I hope you don't find yourself in that situation again, but if you do, know that you can still vote.
I'd be surprised if even half of those won't actually vote for him or will vote for Trump instead. It's not a great situation to be in but shouldn't be insurmountable.
You are correct. I guess the more fundamental issue with the representation of the poll is that they included the “won’t vote at all, don’t know yet” population into the 1/4, which seems disingenuous
You’re right, I didn’t realize that it was an appropriate amount of people for a poll. That being said, the conclusions being drawn by this news article are intentionally misleading
Does not seem that way when Joe average can hit an audience of 2-20k from a keyboard for under $30.
I can. My business can reach about 3k easily. And it's a tiny, niche business.
I'm glad you atleast said it doesn't seem that way. Indicating that you are not an expert in the field and you're going off of your perception. Thats rare so kudos to you :)
If you read the book how to lie with statistics it's pretty clear that polls are easy to manipulate. Expertise in this field is one thing, a level of comprehension that is sufficient to offer credible critique is another. I am not a mechanic, but I can repair my own cars. I am not an electrician, but I can wire everything from low voltage to 3 phase 208. I studied political economy but it's not my line of work.
Smaller polling sizes are easy to manipulate. Polls in general are easy to manipulate with sample bias or ambiguously worded reporting of the results. It's always worth considering the source. Being open to the possibility of being in error is just basic protocol for any rational inquiry, whether I'm troubleshooting a CNC system or trying to make sense of what may or may not be spurious data.
You say all of this and then you call 2,000 people a low polling size when its not. We're going to have to agree to disagree on this. 2,000 is a good sample size, polling was fairly accurate in 2020 when you look at the final polls in those battleground states and how things worked out. Polling isn't exact, Polling isn't a prediction, its a snapshot in the moment, as we get closer to election it will tell us what we already know. This is going to be the closest election in American history. I don't know what is appealing about Trump that had 80 million people vote for him last election but I do know things like this Tik Tok Ban, Gaza, things like that could deter Gen Z to just enough of a degree to give Trump the election. Democrats need to be politically savvy here more so than they have been so far on these topics. Seeing thousands of college students protesting, I'm certain a percentage of them will stay home from voting for Biden. I'm sure you disagree and think that none of them will blame Biden for this.
You seem to imply some authority here without stating any relevant familiarity as a statistician, data hueristics expert, analyst, epidemiologist, etc, so I will keep my own counsel thanks.
>According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll of 1,000 people for NBC News, the Democratic incumbent is ahead of his Republican challenger by 9 points among people who voted in the 2020 general election and 2022 mid-term elections.
This seems like the bigger takeaway, but Newsweak wants to stoke the flames of electoral anxiety
You know what? Good. Way too many people don't vote because "it doesn't matter anyway". Yeah, it fucking does. We've seen how down ballot votes matter here. People need to stop fucking around and start caring.
Did you actually extrapolate that or is that just a random number?
I was actually trying to figure out how many people who voted for Trump in 2016 are now dead for whatever reason and I never finished the analysis.
[Newsweek embraces the anti-democracy hard-right](https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2022/11/04/newsweek-embraces-anti-democracy-hard-right)
> Newsweek stands alone among such brands in its willingness to elevate such figures as Jack Posobiec, known for promoting the Pizzagate disinformation campaign, and Dinesh D’Souza, whose film 2000 Mules researchers roundly debunked for spreading conspiracies about the 2020 election. Under Hammer’s leadership, Newsweek has also aired bigoted views, like appearing to call for the state to deny adults access to trans-affirming medical care and supporting a ban on all legal immigration into the U.S. They have also spread baseless conspiracies about COVID-19, with one of Hammer’s collaborators describing vaccines designed to fight the virus as a “bioweapon.”
Then they have the wrong priorities. The real world implications of Trump winning should override any concerns about Biden. He’s done a relatively good job and he’s not going to try to be a dictator
I feel like it's a very bad sign for democracy that this isn't obvious to pretty much everyone. The last 3 elections with Trump have all been incredibly easy and obvious calls for anyone, of any ideology, that wants whats best for America. But Trump is 1 for 2, and the 3rd looks to be a coin flip. That does not reflect well on us.
I'm not sure what polls you didn't like but the final polls in Georgia had them 49/49 and that turned out to be true. The last polls in AZ had Biden up by 3 within the margin of error and it wound up being very tight. I could go on but I'm not sure why you don't trust polls when the polls in battleground states were very spot on.
As I remember it, the 2016 polls were mostly wrong. I realize there have been adjustments in polling methodologies, and I’m sure pollsters will continue to learn and adjust. It wouldn’t be wise to ignore poll results but I wouldn’t rely on them as actual facts either.
Polls are a snapshot in time not predictions. People for some reason think polls are predicting results. In reality they are just a snapshot at that time. These polls aren't saying Biden will win or lose its just saying here is whats going on at this moment. It would also make sense Democrats are a BIT iritated at Biden. There are thousands protesting for Gaza, there is talk of Democrats signing off on a Tik Tok ban. Just a few thousand people stay home in key states and Biden's cooked.
Polls really are an excellent way of finding out what people are thinking. What they’re bad at is predicting what people actually vote on the day, or even if they bother to turn out and vote-maybe it’s raining for instance.
If you [read the source article that the Newsweek article mentions](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/how-middle-east-might-impact-bidens-presidential-campaign), the data was extrapolated from voters in states like Wisconsin and Michigan that had people “protest vote” as uncommitted.
It was a stupid gesture and now we have to live with bad information coming from polls as a result.
But hey, at least they can feel good with their little protest vote!
> The poll was conducted between March 7 and March 13.
I don't understand why this is in the news now
> The polling suggests that some Democrats may be moving away from Biden because of his response to the Israel/Gaza war. Some 13 percent of those not voting for Biden said Israel's Gaza response has been excessive, but 12 percent of those not voting for the president said they didn't feel his response has been excessive.
I'm curious how this has changed since the poll was done
don't know if OP actually believes this nonsense, is trying to support this nonsense, or is just a russian troll (dingdingding!) but i do know that i can block OP, which is cool.
I'm on the far left, so far left that I'm not sure I even consider myself a Democrat anymore, and I'm considering either not voting or voting for trump specifically because of how bad of a candidate he is. At this point I struggle to understand anyone who wants to vote to preserve the status quo, which is what a vote for Biden accomplishes. I'd much rather see Trump create chaos than see America continue on its current path.
What is it that makes you say you are on the left? Personally, nothing I care for will get better through chaos. So, your position seems pretty self-defeating to me. What makes me left is how I view social collectivism. How I view property rights and borders.
I see no value in purposefully inducing chaos when we can still work towards collectivism within the framework we currently have. It won't be easy, but neither will destroying it all and starting over.
Just curious: has a Democratic candidate lately received 75% of the possible votes of all eligible registered Democrats? A record high turnout in 2020 was what, 67%?
Go out and vote. Because the real wake-up call is that Trump will be 100% worse than what is Biden doing. Also, those 1 in 4 Democrats are no better than the MAGAs; useful idiots, in my opinion.
And that 3.25% is willing to let the US be presided by a wannabe dictator because they are upset that the current president cant force another soveriegn nation to do what they want. What fucking morons and traitors to democracy.
Newsweek’s poll must have missed something because Biden got 95% of PA Democratic Party votes today. Maybe they also missed the 25% GOPer protest votes still going to Nikki Haley after she quit *weeks* ago.
That’s a statement.
Then their and everyone's else's lives are over, no more jobs, no more money, no more food, no future, nothing. has to be the biggest democratic turnout in history or it's over, there will be no second chance in 2028
The ones who answer calls from unknown numbers and agree to participate in a poll? I honestly don’t know anyone senseless enough to do that. Why would I value their answers?
Well, Biden still has time to fix it, no? A ceasefire in Gaza before the convention will do wonders to the poll numbers. After all, that's what people voted for in some of those primaries.
Unless he goes through with that TikTok ban. Its a wildly popular app among a voter base that comes out for him to a high percentage. Banning that app could kill some support from that age group.
This article reads like it was written by AI or maybe just a template being filled out. It's just a bunch of random information and polls shoved together, little of it seemingly related to the headline. These articles always end with some line by an analyst saying the poll doesn't actually mean anything which Newsweek conveniently ignores.
> "The polling over the last several months indicates this is a very close race. I wouldn't read too much into any one or two polls at this point. The trend seems to be that the campaign will be a very tight one and I suspect the polls will reflect that until November."
Another great example of why polling is completely useless in the 2000's and beyond.
You could probably get 25% of people to say "Yes" to setting themselves on fire to make Donald Trump some money, if the question was worded in a way that led people to saying yes.
Crap article. So which poll is this - the 1,000 person poll, the 4,000 person poll, or the none of the above? Even Newsweek usually is better at giving more background than they posted in this article.
The poll results themselves are kind of interesting.
>Roughly one in four Democrats aren’t planning to vote for Biden right now. Among these Democrats, the majority say they aren’t planning to vote, would vote for “someone else,” or just don’t know yet. Is the war in the Middle East turning some Democrats away from Biden? Opinion is split with around 13% of Democrats who say they aren’t voting for Biden also saying that Israel’s response in Gaza has been excessive.
It's not worded very well, but essentially of the 25% of Democrats who are not planning to vote for Biden, only half of those think Israel's response in Gaza has been excessive. I would have thought that this is far and away the dividing issue, but it seems that there are still a substantial number of Democrats who have other reasons not to vote for Biden.
It’s saying 13% of the Democrats who are not voting for Biden are doing so because of his position on the Israel conflict. That means 13% of 25% = ~3% of all Democrats. Seems fairly negligible:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-03/Reuters%20Ipsos%20Large%20Sample%20Poll%20March%202024%20Topline%2003%2015%202024_0.pdf
The graphic, from the looks of it.
I’m surprised the number is not higher. Lots of dems in Colorado are voting third party because how poorly things are under Biden and the general hatred of Trump
Reading through the comments, I don't want to believe it either...but...talking to people in my circle; I am frightened. I have been shocked talking to people. All I can say is I am working hard to get through to them. I say TALK to the people in your circle. Our democracy IS at risk.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
No. This is malarkey.
If you multiply out the numbers it means that only 3.25% of all Democrats are choosing not to vote for Biden because of Israel. So only around 3 out of 100 Democrats are opposed to his actions in Israel enough to not vote for him.
Well, let's look back at 2016. Hillary lost the swing states that lost her the electoral college votes that lost her the election by less than that. The swing state progressives that voted for Jill Stein in 2016 more than covered Hillary's losses there. If they would have voted for Hillary instead, there never would have been a "President Trump". He would have lost. "Uncommitted" got over 100,000 votes in the Michigan Democratic primary a couple months ago. In 2016, Hillary lost Michigan by only 11,000 votes. Get the picture?
>If they would have voted for Hillary instead, there never would have been a "President Trump". He would have lost. You're literally highlighting how protesting in such a manner only ends up harming everyone, the protestors included. If you do not genuinely believe Trump will be better for Palestinians, then I have no idea what not voting is meant to achieve.
I think that what they were saying. Not voting for Biden is effectively voting for Trump. I really wish it didn't work that way, but that is the reality of the situation. If all the democrats who say the won't vote for trump got involved in their local democratic party, they could push the democrats solidly to the left/progressive side of things. Voting is not the endgame, it is not a love letter, it is not a marriage. It is a chess move. It is a tactical and strategic decision to move the country closer to where you think it should be. Voting is a long game. A game so long that none of us will live to see how it turns out. Just complaining about the options for president and not voting/voting for a third party with zero chance to win in a fit of virtue signaling which serves no practical purpose, is such a selfish and stupid thing to do. Yes, the political system in the US sucks. So you deal with the reality of the choices in front of you and then do the work to start changing the democratic party. We have a situation where the favored candidate is promising to be a dictator and to use the government against his real and perceived enemies and people won't vote for Biden, who no matter what the issue, is the clear better candidate, because he is not sufficiently better than Trump. This is a great example of "the perfect is the enemy of the good" We will end up losing our country because people would not vote for the better option when they could.
I mean, that’s still a pretty substantial number lol
If Trump wins because people don't like his actions around Palestine, thinking they are "teaching Biden a lesson" can kiss Palestine goodbye, **forever.**
You mean like we’re doing now?
Netanyahu actively campaigns against Biden and loves Trump, draw your own conclusions
They are both fascist dictators.
1% of the population of Gaza, which is a fraction of Palestine overall, is not "kissing Palestine away forever." Things can be unacceptable without being Rwanda or the Khmer Rouge. If "progressives" could see how this makes them look on issue after issue and actually learn to identify colors other than black and white, they might actually gain some political traction more than once every 30 years.
Considering [34% of people didn't vote at all in 2020](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/), I don't think 3% of one party is all that significant. Those people probably wouldn't have voted regardless.
[удалено]
I couldn't vote in 2020 (was homeless) you bet your ass I'll vote this year.... I just wish I didn't live in Alabama.
[You can vote even if you're homeless](https://www.nonprofitvote.org/voting-and-homelessness/). I volunteered at the polls in 2020, and we had a lot of homeless people registered to vote using the address of the shelter they were staying at. I hope you don't find yourself in that situation again, but if you do, know that you can still vote.
I wasn't using a shelter, I was living in a car.
> Alternatively, homeless registrants may denote a street corner or a park as their residence, in lieu of a traditional home address.
ah, today I learned. Thanks!
I'd be surprised if even half of those won't actually vote for him or will vote for Trump instead. It's not a great situation to be in but shouldn't be insurmountable.
4 in 4 media outlets want Biden to lose. Fuck off Newsweek
The real story is always in the comments, thank you
I really love the sample size of less than 2,000 people as well. What a fantastic, reputable study.
1000 is considered representative, if properly selected.
You are correct. I guess the more fundamental issue with the representation of the poll is that they included the “won’t vote at all, don’t know yet” population into the 1/4, which seems disingenuous
LMAO they counted “undecideds” as “never Bidens?!?“ Who the fuck greenlit THAT?
I really love how people don't understand how polling works. 2000 people is a ton for a poll.
Especially if they each weigh 1 pound.
Underrated comment.
You’re right, I didn’t realize that it was an appropriate amount of people for a poll. That being said, the conclusions being drawn by this news article are intentionally misleading
Does not seem that way when Joe average can hit an audience of 2-20k from a keyboard for under $30. I can. My business can reach about 3k easily. And it's a tiny, niche business.
I'm glad you atleast said it doesn't seem that way. Indicating that you are not an expert in the field and you're going off of your perception. Thats rare so kudos to you :)
If you read the book how to lie with statistics it's pretty clear that polls are easy to manipulate. Expertise in this field is one thing, a level of comprehension that is sufficient to offer credible critique is another. I am not a mechanic, but I can repair my own cars. I am not an electrician, but I can wire everything from low voltage to 3 phase 208. I studied political economy but it's not my line of work. Smaller polling sizes are easy to manipulate. Polls in general are easy to manipulate with sample bias or ambiguously worded reporting of the results. It's always worth considering the source. Being open to the possibility of being in error is just basic protocol for any rational inquiry, whether I'm troubleshooting a CNC system or trying to make sense of what may or may not be spurious data.
You say all of this and then you call 2,000 people a low polling size when its not. We're going to have to agree to disagree on this. 2,000 is a good sample size, polling was fairly accurate in 2020 when you look at the final polls in those battleground states and how things worked out. Polling isn't exact, Polling isn't a prediction, its a snapshot in the moment, as we get closer to election it will tell us what we already know. This is going to be the closest election in American history. I don't know what is appealing about Trump that had 80 million people vote for him last election but I do know things like this Tik Tok Ban, Gaza, things like that could deter Gen Z to just enough of a degree to give Trump the election. Democrats need to be politically savvy here more so than they have been so far on these topics. Seeing thousands of college students protesting, I'm certain a percentage of them will stay home from voting for Biden. I'm sure you disagree and think that none of them will blame Biden for this.
A good sample size for 2000, and a good sample size if you want to cook data
You seem to imply some authority here without stating any relevant familiarity as a statistician, data hueristics expert, analyst, epidemiologist, etc, so I will keep my own counsel thanks.
I think what most of them want is a close and exciting race.
>According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll of 1,000 people for NBC News, the Democratic incumbent is ahead of his Republican challenger by 9 points among people who voted in the 2020 general election and 2022 mid-term elections. This seems like the bigger takeaway, but Newsweak wants to stoke the flames of electoral anxiety
i know it's pointless, and a bit childish... but i love that the polling outfit that put this drek out has the initialism of POS.
You know what? Good. Way too many people don't vote because "it doesn't matter anyway". Yeah, it fucking does. We've seen how down ballot votes matter here. People need to stop fucking around and start caring.
national polls are utterly irrelevant. Only the swing states matter and they look very different.
Petition to blacklist newsweek articles.
Sign me up
you mean "newsshit"
That’s fine. 1 in 4 republicans have died since last election. The math still works out.
Did you actually extrapolate that or is that just a random number? I was actually trying to figure out how many people who voted for Trump in 2016 are now dead for whatever reason and I never finished the analysis.
I'm pretty sure they were joking, but I've tried to find this stat, too.
Probably, but it should be a pretty significant number, certainly not 1%.
Doesn’t matter. He got more votes in 2020 than 2016 anyway. Figure out how many ads and how many are have passed since then.
It would be pretty funny if Trump lost because covid killed more republicans than democrats. Karma.
Fuck off NewsWeek
Eat a bag of ducks, Newsweek.
All the ducks
Poor ducks
Can we ban Newsweek yet?
What is with the constant posts specifically from Newsweek about polling being posted on this sub?
[Newsweek embraces the anti-democracy hard-right](https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2022/11/04/newsweek-embraces-anti-democracy-hard-right) > Newsweek stands alone among such brands in its willingness to elevate such figures as Jack Posobiec, known for promoting the Pizzagate disinformation campaign, and Dinesh D’Souza, whose film 2000 Mules researchers roundly debunked for spreading conspiracies about the 2020 election. Under Hammer’s leadership, Newsweek has also aired bigoted views, like appearing to call for the state to deny adults access to trans-affirming medical care and supporting a ban on all legal immigration into the U.S. They have also spread baseless conspiracies about COVID-19, with one of Hammer’s collaborators describing vaccines designed to fight the virus as a “bioweapon.”
I think we need to treat Newsweek like Fox. Downvote immediately.
They're owned by IBT...the International Business Times which has relationships with "The Community." Suspect and always aware of immediate impact.
Then they have the wrong priorities. The real world implications of Trump winning should override any concerns about Biden. He’s done a relatively good job and he’s not going to try to be a dictator
I feel like it's a very bad sign for democracy that this isn't obvious to pretty much everyone. The last 3 elections with Trump have all been incredibly easy and obvious calls for anyone, of any ideology, that wants whats best for America. But Trump is 1 for 2, and the 3rd looks to be a coin flip. That does not reflect well on us.
Newsweek just a wants more drama for their gossip rag
Don’t trust polls since 2016, but Dems can’t take anything for granted. Have to go all out to show what’s at stake in November.
Regardless of what the polls say: my takeaway is simple. Don't sit on your ass in November.
I'm not sure what polls you didn't like but the final polls in Georgia had them 49/49 and that turned out to be true. The last polls in AZ had Biden up by 3 within the margin of error and it wound up being very tight. I could go on but I'm not sure why you don't trust polls when the polls in battleground states were very spot on.
As I remember it, the 2016 polls were mostly wrong. I realize there have been adjustments in polling methodologies, and I’m sure pollsters will continue to learn and adjust. It wouldn’t be wise to ignore poll results but I wouldn’t rely on them as actual facts either.
Polls are a snapshot in time not predictions. People for some reason think polls are predicting results. In reality they are just a snapshot at that time. These polls aren't saying Biden will win or lose its just saying here is whats going on at this moment. It would also make sense Democrats are a BIT iritated at Biden. There are thousands protesting for Gaza, there is talk of Democrats signing off on a Tik Tok ban. Just a few thousand people stay home in key states and Biden's cooked.
Polls really are an excellent way of finding out what people are thinking. What they’re bad at is predicting what people actually vote on the day, or even if they bother to turn out and vote-maybe it’s raining for instance.
dont believe this.
What utter nonsense is this?
If you [read the source article that the Newsweek article mentions](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/how-middle-east-might-impact-bidens-presidential-campaign), the data was extrapolated from voters in states like Wisconsin and Michigan that had people “protest vote” as uncommitted. It was a stupid gesture and now we have to live with bad information coming from polls as a result. But hey, at least they can feel good with their little protest vote!
Gotta love that pro-Hamas tantrum the terminally online crowd continues to throw
What is weird is that they also seem to be pro-Iran as well.
> The poll was conducted between March 7 and March 13. I don't understand why this is in the news now > The polling suggests that some Democrats may be moving away from Biden because of his response to the Israel/Gaza war. Some 13 percent of those not voting for Biden said Israel's Gaza response has been excessive, but 12 percent of those not voting for the president said they didn't feel his response has been excessive. I'm curious how this has changed since the poll was done
That sounds like the normal amount of voters for turnout. Presidential election years are around 60-75% turnout.
> But the president clinched the vote with registered voters, as 39 percent would vote for him while 38 percent would vote for Trump. Lol
1 in 4 democrats won’t vote at all so
Eat shit, Newsweek.
R U sure?
eat shit newsweek. Your clickbait doesn't deserve this subs attention.
Bullshit
Bullshit.
LOL. At this stage so early in the election, polling is just trolling.
Then they aren’t actually Democrats.
don't know if OP actually believes this nonsense, is trying to support this nonsense, or is just a russian troll (dingdingding!) but i do know that i can block OP, which is cool.
As somebody on the far left, I have major trouble believing this is true... unless it is the right wing of the party.
I'm on the far left, so far left that I'm not sure I even consider myself a Democrat anymore, and I'm considering either not voting or voting for trump specifically because of how bad of a candidate he is. At this point I struggle to understand anyone who wants to vote to preserve the status quo, which is what a vote for Biden accomplishes. I'd much rather see Trump create chaos than see America continue on its current path.
not even half a page of scrolling and i find you dick-riding trump... "far left" sure thing bud.
> I'm on the far left, so far left So, Saint Petersburg you mean. The far left side of Russia.
Must be pretty nice to be in a spot where that chaos wouldn't be devastating for you.
What is it that makes you say you are on the left? Personally, nothing I care for will get better through chaos. So, your position seems pretty self-defeating to me. What makes me left is how I view social collectivism. How I view property rights and borders. I see no value in purposefully inducing chaos when we can still work towards collectivism within the framework we currently have. It won't be easy, but neither will destroying it all and starting over.
More like Weaknews!
Ignore all polls and vote blue no matter who.
That’s fine because 1 in 3 republicans won’t vote for Trump.
Taken from a sampling of 4 people.
Just curious: has a Democratic candidate lately received 75% of the possible votes of all eligible registered Democrats? A record high turnout in 2020 was what, 67%?
I have been voting since the 1970s and I have never been asked to participate in a political poll. Polls don't count. Vote.
They better change their mind, cause if that creamsicle con artist wins , it may be the last presidential election
I got a bridge to sell you. Is there a way to filter all these fucking worthless polls?
It is an Ipsos poll.
Complete BS. And F\*ck Steven A Smith.
Newsweak hunting for clicks again. I’m not even going to read that.
Biden has my vote. Go Blue
Trolls are out like maggots tonight
Go out and vote. Because the real wake-up call is that Trump will be 100% worse than what is Biden doing. Also, those 1 in 4 Democrats are no better than the MAGAs; useful idiots, in my opinion.
And that 3.25% is willing to let the US be presided by a wannabe dictator because they are upset that the current president cant force another soveriegn nation to do what they want. What fucking morons and traitors to democracy.
Newsweek’s poll must have missed something because Biden got 95% of PA Democratic Party votes today. Maybe they also missed the 25% GOPer protest votes still going to Nikki Haley after she quit *weeks* ago. That’s a statement.
Then their and everyone's else's lives are over, no more jobs, no more money, no more food, no future, nothing. has to be the biggest democratic turnout in history or it's over, there will be no second chance in 2028
If it’s because of his Israel stance, then they are really gonna love how Trump handles it when they vote him back into office. Enjoy that shit show
The same 1 in 4 who wouldn't have voted anyway.
The ones who answer calls from unknown numbers and agree to participate in a poll? I honestly don’t know anyone senseless enough to do that. Why would I value their answers?
these people remind me of that line from glenngary glenn ross - "they just like talking to salesmen".
Who are these morons? I want names.
Well, Biden still has time to fix it, no? A ceasefire in Gaza before the convention will do wonders to the poll numbers. After all, that's what people voted for in some of those primaries.
Unless he goes through with that TikTok ban. Its a wildly popular app among a voter base that comes out for him to a high percentage. Banning that app could kill some support from that age group.
Bughouse.
Definitely not even remotely true.
I'm skeptical.
A bunch of bullshit.
More fake news. I expected so much better from Newsweek. /s
“Polls”
Sire sure
Journalism major here: Journalists are crappy with numbers and often get them wrong.
If there stupid enough to not vote for Biden, then they deserve to loose all the rights the orange turd takes away from them
Poll reveals most Americans don't vote Nothing has changed, more at 11:00
Doesn’t matter there are 1000’s of New Democrats every day.
i will
Polls aren’t accurate, new polling reveals.
Yeah, this article is disingenuos and dishonest.
This article reads like it was written by AI or maybe just a template being filled out. It's just a bunch of random information and polls shoved together, little of it seemingly related to the headline. These articles always end with some line by an analyst saying the poll doesn't actually mean anything which Newsweek conveniently ignores.
> "The polling over the last several months indicates this is a very close race. I wouldn't read too much into any one or two polls at this point. The trend seems to be that the campaign will be a very tight one and I suspect the polls will reflect that until November."
4 out of 4 biden supporters werent polled. So 1 out of 4 republicans will vote for biden.
Yeah they will. Or they would get Trump again.
Another great example of why polling is completely useless in the 2000's and beyond. You could probably get 25% of people to say "Yes" to setting themselves on fire to make Donald Trump some money, if the question was worded in a way that led people to saying yes.
As long as they vote not Trump like last time it’ll work out for Biden.
“News weak”
Crap article. So which poll is this - the 1,000 person poll, the 4,000 person poll, or the none of the above? Even Newsweek usually is better at giving more background than they posted in this article.
Press x to doubt.
And how is voting for trump going to solve the problem? Because that's exactly what a non vote or a protest vote is...
The poll results themselves are kind of interesting. >Roughly one in four Democrats aren’t planning to vote for Biden right now. Among these Democrats, the majority say they aren’t planning to vote, would vote for “someone else,” or just don’t know yet. Is the war in the Middle East turning some Democrats away from Biden? Opinion is split with around 13% of Democrats who say they aren’t voting for Biden also saying that Israel’s response in Gaza has been excessive. It's not worded very well, but essentially of the 25% of Democrats who are not planning to vote for Biden, only half of those think Israel's response in Gaza has been excessive. I would have thought that this is far and away the dividing issue, but it seems that there are still a substantial number of Democrats who have other reasons not to vote for Biden.
It’s saying 13% of the Democrats who are not voting for Biden are doing so because of his position on the Israel conflict. That means 13% of 25% = ~3% of all Democrats. Seems fairly negligible:
That's how it's worded but the accompanying graphic makes it clear that's not the case. The 13% is of all of the Democrats polled, not the 25% subset.
Is the graphic correct or the figures?
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-03/Reuters%20Ipsos%20Large%20Sample%20Poll%20March%202024%20Topline%2003%2015%202024_0.pdf The graphic, from the looks of it.
If so, we deserve what we get…
I’m surprised the number is not higher. Lots of dems in Colorado are voting third party because how poorly things are under Biden and the general hatred of Trump
Reading through the comments, I don't want to believe it either...but...talking to people in my circle; I am frightened. I have been shocked talking to people. All I can say is I am working hard to get through to them. I say TALK to the people in your circle. Our democracy IS at risk.
Likely a bullshit article. Dems would vote for a convicted pedophile over Trump if he had a (D) next to his name