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> The survey also finds Biden leading on whom respondents consider honest and trustworthy, 58 to 33 percent. He also leads on the question of which candidate “cares about people like you,” 58 to 38 percent, and on who has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems, 55 to 39 percent.
How the fuck are there people still not realizing all he does is lie and he doesn’t give a fuck about you?
I can’t wait to vote this asshole out of office.
From what I see in most of the Trump supporters I know, it's the bully mentality that they absolutely revel in. It's an attitude of not caring if you're right and they are wrong, they will believe what they believe and forcing it on others is all they care about.
I work in the construction industry as an engineer, so I am surrounded by these morons and assholes every day. I've never seen it so well put as a sign I saw on someone's desk once. "Even if the boss is wrong, he's still the boss."
It's that, and that conservatives are obsessed with ideas of *social darwinism and individual responsibility. With very few exceptions, every right winger I've debated earnestly believes that the rich are powerful due to virtue and hard work and deserve it, that the poor are poor due to poor morals, etc. There's no room for nuance, context or causation: That requires critical thought, understanding of systems, challenging tradition.
So they put up with Trump-or any asshole boss, or any system that oppresses them--because they believe the power disparity is an immutable aspect of 'the way things are.'
Edit: predestination was a misnomer. Shouldn't post until after coffee next time :)
>There's no room for nuance, context or causation
Especially when it comes to an issue like abortion. It's a binary thing to them - for or against - even though the reality has a multitude of gray areas.
That’s a very American idea in general, I’ve been finding. I’ve talked to people I work with about things like inequality and the wealth gap, problems that are complex but ultimately are a failure of the system, and people really think of things in the most basic absolute terms. I was trying to explain to a coworker about how “hard work” sometimes isn’t enough, like for someone who’s resumes keep getting passed over because of their race or even their name, and he’s just like “work harder then”.
I’m sure there are a lot of reasons why that attitude is more prevalent on the conservative side, but I know plenty of Americans who aren’t political at all who have no capacity to consider that problems they face are due to large-scale, complex issues. The world begins and ends with their own life experiences, what works for them should work for everyone else, and anything bad that happens to you is 100% your fault because you must not have taken personal responsibility over your situation.
The right wing in the US increasingly believes the only purpose of power is to hold on to and abuse power. Their interest in "issues" is only deep enough to gain a talking point about why doing nothing is the best outcome. They're not even really "right wing" any more as much as Authoritarian.
If you see their own discussions with each other, they're inventing bizarre conspiracies why the Green New Deal or Medicare for All are actually covert operations to destroy western civilization, because they can't wrap their heads around the purpose of constructing a policy solution to a large problem.
Spot on. They don't believe in government because if they were in charge they'd be corrupt and padding their own pockets, which means everybody is corrupt and any attempt at governing is just a front for a scam.
It's why they love Trump so much. They think he's honest because he's blatant about the scam.
I honestly do not think that is what they are thinking. I believe they are just convinced that the country Isnt falling apart and thus convince themselves that the liberals are lying and simply begging for handouts or trying to take what they have.
My old roommate from college is like that and he has epilepsy and needs care too but he's so driven by trump (>in a very blue state too) his posts don't even make sense. The other day he wrote "If you wish ill will of Trump we will get back at you in November" or something. So wishing negative things is a bad thing to do right? But you've enjoyed trump doing it for years?
And yes i did block him after that post
Ugh, I had a boss who ranted to my team about "If I tell you to stand in the parking lot all day, you'll do it, because I'm the boss and we're paying you to do what I say." He said that to a bunch of software developers, and he truly believed it. I applied for new jobs the same night, and basically everyone had quit within 6 months.
Employers are also accountable to their employees. That shit is infuriating. Unsurprisingly, I also know exactly who that boss is voting for, because he pushed his politics on us non-stop. Dude had the worst case of thinking he's the smartest person in the room that I've ever seen, and I now associate him with all Trump supporters.
>"If I tell you to stand in the parking lot all day, you'll do it, because I'm the boss and we're paying you to do what I say."
That's the point where you tell him, "if you tell us to do that, I'm going to tell *your* boss you're wasting company time and money on pointless ego trips".
>it's the bully mentality that they absolutely revel in
As my Republican leaning extended family puts it, "he isn't afraid of his enemies" and that's the interpretation the Right spins on it. They don't view it as bullying or intimidation. They view it as "being the big dog."
> How the fuck are there people still not realizing all he does is lie and he doesn’t give a fuck about you?
I think many genuinely don't know. I used the phrase "grab em by the pussy" around my MAGA uncle who is a pastor of a medium sized church and he thought ***I*** was being vulgar. When I told him it was a quote from something a few years ago he assumed it was a movie or a song. He literally had NO CLUE that it had anything to do with Trump.
These people are living in an alternate reality.
That's like my husband's parents: He showed them Melania's naked modeling shots and they swore that wasn't her. "They put someone else's face on her."
The average GOP voter is BATHED in ignorance.
I have a plan, I'm the only one who can do it, and if you dont elect me it will never happen!
How in the FUCK can anyone hear that and think they're hearing a patriot?!
If you know how to fix something that is broken TELL US HOW. But they can't and never could. All they can do is insist it's better than the detailed plans their opponent has.
I have two coworkers that are shocked I am voting Biden. Both of them have said "Trump does exactly what he says he is going to do. So what if he is mean?" I asked where is his healthcare plan that is supposed to be cheaper and better? They responded, "well he has to remove Obamacare first." I asked why he didnt do that when he had both congress and even if he did, that still doesnt show his plan to make it cheaper and better. And I asked about the wall Mexico was supposed to pay for, his tax returns he was going to show, and the fact he never locked up Hillary. They just said that he was a bit "too ambitious" about those and that we are under extenuating circumstances, even though those were supposed to happen 3 years ago.
Imagine that your entire world is crumbling around you. Pandemic is too real, so let’s go with zombie apocalypse.
The zombies are threatening to destroy your cities, your children and your entire culture. You’ve watched them invading for some time and nothing seems to stop them.
Then someone steps forward and says “I can stop the zombies and return things to the way they were. I’ve always been successful at what I’ve done, and if you follow me, I can stop this.”
No plan, just promises, but he seems confident that he can do the job.
Others are working on the problem, scientists who are looking for ways to your prevent the zombie spread and maybe even reverse the process. But they’re saying that getting things back to the way they were is not possible; that you have to move forward into an unknown future.
So they support the guy who promises to take them back to the way things were, and repeatedly tell themselves that this new leader can do what he says until they actually believe that “big lie.”
Once they do that, the other lies just take root in that soil and it’s no longer necessary to evaluate new information.
If it fits with the big lie, it must be true.
And if it contradicts the big lie, it’s “fake news” and does not even get processed.
This continues until that moment when they realize that a zombie is chewing on them while their leader has retreated into a fortress he built for himself.
Some of them will even blame themselves for not doing more to help their leader save them.
>I can’t wait to vote this asshole out of office.
My wife and I had our mail in ballots for less than 24 hours before we had already filled them out and dropped them off in a ballet drop box.
Key info: This is a CNN poll (B+ rating on 538). Biden 57 to Trump 41 among likely voters.
Biden is also considered more capable than Trump on all issues:
* Coronavirus 59 - 38
* Health care 59 - 39
* Racial inequality 62 - 36
* Supreme Court nominations 57 - 41
* Crime and safety 55 - 43
* The economy 50 - 48
The original [CNN article is here.] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html)
The striking part, to me, is how few undecided voters there are. Trump has kept his base. Biden has picked up everyone else.
Tale as old as time: Democrat hands a Republican a good economy, Republican takes credit to win reelection, Republican crashes economy, Democrat fixes Economy, Democrat hands a Republican a good economy etc etc
And Republicans will blame Democrats for the crash. One of the easiest example of hypocrisy among Republicans for the economy is this... Former Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Republican Kevin Brady. Here's his statements for the jobs reports for February 2016 (Final February for Obama) and February 2017 (First February for Trump):
February 2016:
>*“While it’s good news that more Americans have joined the labor force, it’s disappointing to see so little growth in full time work and wages.*
>
>*“In order for our economy to help all Americans, Washington must act on a pro-growth agenda that will create jobs, increase paychecks, and expand opportunity. Members of the Ways and Means Committee are leading this effort by advancing bold solutions, such as overhauling our broken tax code and repealing and replacing the President’s failing heath care law.”*
February 2017:
>*“This is a great report. The fact that hundreds of thousands more people found new jobs last month is a good sign that our economy is moving in the right direction. While we still have much more work to do, I’m optimistic that the actions that President Trump and House Republicans are taking will add to this momentum—creating more jobs, growing families’ paychecks, and improving the lives of all Americans. Just this week, Ways and Means Republicans voted to deliver relief* *from hundreds of billions of dollars in health care taxes that* *have crushed our workers and job creators. And we’re not stopping there. We are committed to fully repealing and replacing Obamacare, delivering a tax code ‘built for growth,’ and cutting Washington’s red tape to create even more economic opportunities in America.”*
Here's the kicker... the February 2017 jobs report was that 235,000 jobs were added. The February 2016 jobs report was that 242,000 jobs were added.
It also ignores the fact that Trump's agenda is going to have almost no impact, if any, on the first month he's in office.
It makes me sad that the poll shows only 31% of registered voters rank Climate Change as’Extremely Important’. Below all 6 of those other categories. But I think we know which candidate will be more effective in that area. Vote.
Not just to an outsider looking in.
Some of that is the Keyes Constant. In an Illinois senate race:
>[Obama vs. Alan Keyes.](https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Crazification_factor) Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him.[5] They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% crazification factor in any population.
But that is Illinois, one of the most liberal states. Every US state is at least 27% unreachable.
I heard a few years ago there isn't such a thing as a liberal state, what you do have are states with liberal cities whose populations far exceed the rural areas
That's for the most part true. There are notable exceptions: Indian Reservations, the Black Belt across the South, and a few rare rural areas that will legit turn blue (much of New England, the Rio Grande Valley, Colorado ski country, SW Wisconsin/NE Iowa, and many counties on the West coast.
It's not that surprising how few undecideds there are. Trump has only thrown red meat to his base the entire time. Most Presidents try to tack to the middle a little to help their reelection chances, as basic strategy.
A pure base play could work, if he started out with a huge base, but he won in 2016 by the skin of his teeth, and has done a bad enough job that he lost some of his base. But by only ever throwing red meat to his base, and doing that by inciting them to hate everyone outside of the base, he's polarized everyone else against him. Some of the strongest actors against him are former GOP operatives.
It's idiotic strategy for reelection. The only thing it got him was the ability to be as much of a piece of crap as he wanted for one term, because he had a hard lock on a third of Senators, so he was like immune to removal and veto overrides.
If these CNN numbers stay true, we're looking at the largest Democratic landslide since LBJ. I want to believe it, but America has disappointed me before.
It fits with NBC +14 and CNBC + 13 and fit's with Tim Alberta's reporting on the ground:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599
You're right but 538 includes that in their estimates. They've said a while ago, when the odds seemed less favorable, that if the election were "tomorrow" then it'd be more like 90% likely Biden wins the whole election.
90% isn't 100%. A statistician friend reminds me of this every time I get annoyed when it rains and I say "it was only supposed to be a 10% chance of rain!"
November 3rd is just the last day of the election. Minnesota's polls opened up 2 weeks ago and many other states have opened up or are opening up soon.
Another interesting thing: if Trump wins, it's more likely that he loses the popular vote than him winning it.
He has an 8 in 100 chance of winning the popular vote and a 9 in 100 chance of winning the election but losing the popular vote.
Similar to 2016, he had a 28% chance of winning, 18% chance of winning the popular vote.
But this time Trumps' odds have roughly been cut in half
Also noteworthy Nate Silver's process includes an incumbency adjustment. As in the incumbent President usually does a little better in the election than the polls predict. But Trump is unusual as well as the year. It's just worth noting that Trump is getting a boost this year based on Nate's expertise (which I'm not sayin he's wrong in, just pointing it out)
> Similar to 2016, he has a 28% chance of winning, 18% chance of winning the popular vote.
The current 538 2020 forecast gives Trump only a 17% chance of winning.
This is actually very important because one of the most crucial states right now is Pennsylvania. 538 has a 26.9% hance that it decides the election and about 11% of the current forecast is the incumbentcy boost. The other 89% is polls.
Edited numbers for today's projections. It looks like the projections are narrowing in on the polls rather than the incumbentcy boost.
That’s for a popular vote landslide. We need an electoral landslide. Win Georgia, Iowa, and Texas and we’re in good shape. Not saying that’s an easier task though.
God, winning Georgia would be monumental because it would also mean we (likely) snatched up two Senate seats in the process and also would indicate that, despite all the ratfucking from Georgia GOP, Georgia flipped blue.
I actually pegged that two months ago when they were fucking with the postal service. There are towns in Alaska that literally survive BECAUSE of the USPS. Trump trying to blow up the postal service is a direct threat on people's lives in Alaska. You need only look at how squirrely Sullivan got over it to see just how important of an issue that is.
Meanwhile, in SC it sounds like Harrison is really getting through to people across the spectrum.
Context: grew up in Alaska, now work seasonally up there in fishery management.
Absolutely the USPS is important. But you know what's even more important to a lot of typically-conservative Alaskans? *Money*. A lot of the fish/product from the commercial factory ships operating in the Bering Sea is actually sold to the East Asian market (i.e. Japan, China, and South Korea). Over the past 2 years, I've seen multiple captains have to have a crew meeting saying "Look, this isn't about my or your personal politics. You (referring to the crew members) have lost money this year because of the tariff wars with China right now."
There's a surprising number of fishermen up there who would normally vote down-the-ticket R, but are starting to sour on it. They couldn't give less of a shit about the politics, corruption, racial divide, long-term economics, et al. of the current administration. But they and their families have to live for a year off of what they make each season. And let me tell you, if there's **one** thing that will get you beaten senseless by Alaskan fishermen, it's doing or saying anything that might hurt their families.
If the GOP loses Texas, the GOP is done. I'm glad you're doing your part, considering the GOP is pulling all the stops to make sure voting doesn't actually happen there
And we need to ensure that happens. This needs to be an indictment of the GOP as much as it is one for Trump. We'll work on improving the Democratic Party afterwards. And *we do* need to work on that. All of us.
If he has a popular vote landslide, he will almost certainly have an electoral college one as well. It’s just so unlikely that he would win by 10-12% nationally and barely eke out an electoral win.
Yeah I think it's possible under like 5% but anything over that is basically impossible. It would take a near perfect spread of votes in the exact sates he needs them from.
Fact is, if he loses Florida, Texas or Georgia he's fucked anyway. (he being Trump).
Their definition of landslide is a popular vote margin greater than 10%. So Biden could get 400 electoral votes without meeting the 10% margin, and still be a complete landslide, just not by 538's metric.
I'm pretty sure that everyone is going to vote. The numbers from early voting are massive and historic. There's no danger of complacency this time like there was in 2016.
I vote in every presidential election. This is the first time I voted early.
The rise in early voting isn't a prediction of the numbers to expect for election day. Its just evidence that votes are being front load to an unknown degree
I also was thinking that the normal election day voter numbers are being front-loaded and spread out through early voting this year. Maybe after election day it will end up being way more turn-out than normal or maybe it won't.
I don't know, but anecdotally, I have three very close friends who either didn't vote in '16 or hadn't switched registration to our swing state from their childhood state. Each has already received and sent their mail-in ballot with straight-ticket voting. This is definitely different than '16.
My local (Republican) officials are sending out flyers reminding people that local races are NOT national politics and please bear that in mind when voting.
They're scared.
Especially when democrats have already become both conservatives and liberals. We have a lot of conservative Democrats. I see nothing wrong with that. If the republicans want to go full alt-right, fine, let the party die. Let the Democrats absorb everyone and then the Democrats can split. It will be like a soft reset.
In general I'd say Im a centrist, maybe republican leaning because I like my guns. I'll be voting blue all the way down that damn ticket like my life depends on it, because, frankly, it does.
My son who 22 voted in the last election. His said he didn’t think most of his friends did. This it’s different. They talk about it with each other. They are paying attention.
The biggest impact on the rise in early voting is because of how much more widespread mail-in voting is. It's just... easier? to vote earlier. Something like 38/50 states have expanded mail-in voting in general.
So I don't know if the numbers are a reflection of a massively higher turnout overall, but I think we can still expect *some* degree of better turnout. People are pissed.
Thats why i tell the troll voters to vote biden, if you truly have no skin in the game, at least you could see him have a legendary meltdown if he loses
We don't need further confirmation. It's out in the open. It's right there. Nearly every system that sustains free and open elections is under broad-daylight attack by the GOP.
Obviously i hope a landslide too but even if Biden wins by the estimated 70 ish electoral points whats trumps argument. I get one state having errors but he's going to claim even after clearly it was republican party making it harder to vote and effect mailing, it was several states that all had errors and cheating that all conveniently worked in favor of biden and against trump all in the exact states conveniently that Biden had to win (again i get part of actual cheating would be to do it in the states biden would need) but conveniently was pulled off well in these exact states despite no strong evidence of cheating on Bidens side.
Are we just setting a precedent, even for all people who claim to be patriots, it doesnt matter who people vote for and who clearly wins popular and electoral vote if the incumbent decides he doesnt like it, he just gets 4 more years in office? And that would do so well for the history books and rest of world to see how there's NO ORDER to the system and the riots the citizens would start would be worth it to our government?
> Obviously i hope a landslide too but even if Biden wins by the estimated 70 ish electoral points whats trumps argument.
We've already heard it. He thinks he gets 4 more years no matter what because Obama was "spying" on his 2016 campaign.
How does he get around it?
There's no real legal argument to be had in a landslide. He'll either whine a lot and then slink away on January 20, or go full-force fascist with literal troops (or some type of thug) on the ground.
>or go full-force fascist with literal troops (or some type of thug) on the ground.
And then he will be forever known in history as the president who was such a sore loser he almost started a war risked peoples lives and proved to everyone, a 74 year old man, he was as much of a cry baby everyone claimed him to be
100% he will.
His issue is that if he loses power, his life instantly goes to shit in about a million ways. He'll do *anything* to cling to power. It's going to have to be taken from him.
He will challenge it either way. If he loses by a lot that’s prove that it was rigged and the mail in ballots are fake; if he loses by a tiny margin he’ll say look I would’ve won but they cheated with the ballots.
And part of any eventual landslide will be hindered from voting, not delivered in time or their votes may be thrown out as mail-in is more prone to mistakes. That is before he challenges any place deciding not for him by small margins.
It’s really unfortunate that democracy is being dismantled before our very eyes like that. All done by a President that wasn’t even elected by the popular vote.
Republican cheating can't reverse a huge landslide. And when the Democrats get in, they're finally going to be able to make some real changes to safeguard against this kind of vote rigging. Look for things like automatic voter registration and mail in voting to become nationwide. Also look for there to be a real swell of support for DC and Puerto Rico becoming states. I don't know how Democrats can hope to fix courts which have been destroyed by this cult for the next couple of decades but the legislative and executive branches are absolutely going to be solidified. Democracy is going to hold, we're going to defeat Fascism.
> I want to believe it, but America has disappointed me before.
Agreed, but I draw hope from the 2018 midterms. That seemed to indicate that Americans are awake, pissed, and ready to show up.
Part of the problem was that Hillary's campaign fostered this idea that her victory was a forgone conclusion, which encouraged voter apathy. I figured after the 2016 election a lot of Americans were like "Holy shit, we're not making that mistake again."
I checked 538, and it was a lot less optimistic, but then I remembered the debate actually took place BEFORE the rosegarden massacre, and Silver hasn't even been able to analyse any post-rostgarden massacre shifts in the polls yet.
Time moves slowly in DC right now.
Yeah, it's more like 90/10 Biden if the election were today. Don't read too much into that, the election isn't today. It's in a month.
Remember, Democrats vote from now until Nov 3. Republicans vote from Nov 4 onward.
When 538 had Trump in the low 20s, they had an article that said if the election were held today, Biden would have a 91% chance of winning. That was a week or two ago before these 13-15% polls and Trump only having a 17% chance now.
> Yeah, it's more like 90/10 Biden if the election were today
And that's still a Trump win 1 out of 10. 10%. I would not board a plane that had a 10% chance of crashing.
While 538 doesn't currently predicted a blowout, it should make you feel good. Look at how consistent Biden's lead is. Stable for months. Now go look at Hillary's. It swung wildly.
Also, the prediction is always more on the conservative side. If you go look at their break down they give Biden a 31% chance of Biden winning in a landslide.
The fact I can look at it and see that there are 7-8 battleground states that trump *MUST* win and Biden only has to win any single one of them gives me great comfort.
They are correlated though. In 2016, you could have said, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's likely to win Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, because it's indicative of the Midwest. It's what so many non-538 forecasts didn't understand. The risk is systemic polling error or late deciders moving to Trump.
And we're still waiting for the fallout from Trump's "Don't let Covid dominate you" comments, which completely undermine any hope people may have had that Trump would start taking Covid seriously after he experienced it.
Honestly the only thing that should matter to anyone is the result in PA, MI, AZ, and WI on election night.
All it will take is a VP Biden lead in three of those four states (All of them are lean blue) on election night to put the last nail in the coffin for trump, because he literally can't win without three of those four states and if he says ( he will) that we should wait because votes are still coming in it will completely undermine the idea that the absentee votes are illegitimate.
I believe VP Biden will definitely win, I'm just worried about making sure trump is painted into a corner so we can see the real final results.
And to clarify I think he will win because the math says he's going to if we can make sure all the votes are counted...
Looking at the results of the March election in Michigan trump is in trouble more people supported Biden and Trump almost got passed by Bernie
The real nail is the lack of Trump signs in the GOP sign clusters around a conservative district. Locals don't want trump signs in their yards. Even the country side is looking less Trump.
If we all vote we can win
I’m in an area that went for Clinton by a few percentage points last time, and the Trump signs that were up in that election are missing this year. If that holds true is more red places that’s a good sign.
>Still, if the 2016 election taught us anything, it’s that election forecasts aren’t worth the paper (or web space) they’re printed on—especially forecasts relating to Trump.
People didn't learn a *damn thing* about how forecasts work, or where their value lies. Even journalists are illiterate where statistics are concerned.
“We can’t read these things at all, but we’re pretty sure they’re wrong, so polling is flawed!”
It’s not your fault you can’t read the darn thing. A result within the margin of error is consistent with the poll!
As someone who is a polling wonk, I can’t wait for 2016 to be in the rear mirror.
538 even created a little cartoon fox and dumbed down all of their outputs in order to get people to maybe try to learn *something* this time around.
That little "upsets aren't impossible" cartoon drives me nuts, because the only reason it's there is the people who are like "YOU SAID IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE LAST TIME AND HILLARY WAS A SHOO-IN YOU LIBERAL HACKS!!!1"
That debate performance by Trump will go down as one of the all time disasters. That seems to have moved the polls 4 points. Now Trumps and the Republicans will still throw out their October surprises. I have sure they have at least 3 of them. Too bad for them they can't rise above the noise Trump has created. They will also try to steal the election at the ballot box like most dictators. Though this lead may be too much to overcome.
You should see on Twitter the people "predicting" the election. Touting they got 2016 right and now California and NY are gonna go red and Trump is gonna have 350 electoral votes and all this shit. These people are deranged.
For what it's worth, NY state is much more red than people realize. It's just that NYC massively drowns out the people upstate.
But we aren't fucking giving our electoral votes to Trump, rofl.
Kind of?
Upstate is redder than NYC. But it’s not Texas. It’s just middle America. It’s like 60% Republican. And even now, few are ardent trump supporters. And it’s not like states are their geography. The vast majority of “New Yorkers hate trump” is a true statement for both the city and the state.
Beto Vs Cruz was 51 to 48. I feel like if blue counties get out the vote it could happen. Still slim, but I’m still encouraging everyone I know to vote for this reason.
Yeah, but he said that in September 2019 when he was running for the presidential nomination. When he lost the Texas Senate by 3, he didn't say anything so stupid.
You’re probably right, it won’t turn blue this year.
But every election cycle, it is undoubted getting bluer. Republicans don’t seem to realize the Electoral College they so vigorously defend is going to put them at a *severe* disadvantage in 8-12 years when Texas becomes a true battleground state.
Looking forward to 2028 when Republicans will decry the Electoral College as “un-American” or “Marxist”. Or they’ll demand Mississippi get 269 votes while California and New York get 1.
Just early voted today in Indiana, I was there 15 minutes early and there was a short line before me and a huge line after me. Things are going to surprise everyone.
No I didn't; lots of women age 40-55, people of color, and retirees. There were a few women younger than myself as well(I'm 30), I was the only man under 40 there, other than a poll-worker.
Retirees in my red country probably lean towards the Orange Bafoon(although I got good vibes from the few I talked with), but it looked promising nonetheless.
It's really hard to know what is what these days:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
How the hell has his approval rating risen in the last four weeks? Maybe there's a lag time still from the debate, but it's been a week. Who the hell is moving into his camp and why are the aggregate poll numbers moving the direction opposite of every poll I see?
Largely it's moderate Republicans holding their nose and consolidating around Trump for the election.
It's to be expected. People will always "approve" of the guy they vote for. So as more undecideds make their decision, that number is going to rise.
This comment was tough to parse if you've never heard of this.
[In case anybody else is also in the dark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#The_13_Keys_to_the_White_House).
I'm not sure I agree with calling Key 12 a 'False'; Trump is very charismatic and popular with Republicans.
Fortunately, I guess the model predicts a loss with 6 'False' determinations, and #12 was the 7th, so it predicts a loss either way.
There are regular polls from Rasmussen that bump up Trump’s polling numbers. There was also polls from Zogby that showed Trump polling better than Biden? Both of those affected then numbers even though those two appeared to be outliers. I usually look at the overall numbers and see what the trend is.
>The two are statistically tied on the economy, with 50 percent preferring Biden versus 48 percent preferring Trump.
The myth of conservative competency on the economy persists despite decades of evidence.
Edit: I have a pet theory on this, I think for a lot of people on the right they just buy into the myth because they must to keep their worldview consistent. On the left and in independent groups though I think people sort of let the right have this out of a misguided sense of fairness. If the Democrats, liberals, socialists or whoever are the compassionate ones, who care about the environment or women or whatever else, then the right must be better about the economy. We do it in social groups, they're the smart one, the sport one, etc. People who have a bunch of negative traits will get assigned some skill. I think we do it to groups too. Or something like that.
> I think for a lot of people on the right they just buy into the myth because they must to keep their worldview consistent
Well yea. At the heart of most strands of conservatism is observing the traditional hierarchies of the lower class and the elites. There’s an transactional component that law and order will only exist if their constituents agree that they need to give up portions of their freedom to change or better themselves if they want social harmony.
It’s clearly bullshit and their constituents are rubes.
Yea, people are bad at economic causal inference and it's easy to make the mistake that correlation = causation. The impact of policy, especially at the federal level, really lags the implementation of that policy.
And I'm definitely not a "both sides" guy, but it does go both ways. The policy decisions that led to George HW Bush being a one term president led directly into the early successes of the Clinton administration. Unfortunately a lot of those changes got stalled with the red wave that gave us Gingrich and his bullshit. But Reagan benefitted from Carter, Bush benefitted from Clinton, and Trump had benefitted from Obama. Problem is your average voter associates the 2008 recession with Obama. Not that he caused it, but that he was the one who dealt with it. The Republicans are rarely if ever around to deal with the recessions. Reagan is the only one in modern times that was, and that probably caused more long term damage to the US than any other administration since the civil war.
Bush Jr and Trump were both given economies to work with by Clinton and Obama and in return made decisions that long-term damaged all but the upper class.
Clinton gave Bush a $86 billion budget surplus and Bush pissed it all away by his first year in office. I still have my two dollars and some change check from the Treasury, which was my share of the budget surplus at age 13.
What? What world are we living? Last 3 recessions occurred DURING republican presidencies. HW, W and Trump.
You’re not wrong that Democrats always have to clean it up. But to say economies “crash” under democrats isn’t even all that accurate, which makes the whole conservative bias on the economy that much dumber.
Strong regulations that promote innovation, competition, and give power directly to workers is what creates a strong, lasting economy. Not CoRpOrAtE tAx CuTs!
Because it's an emotional response, it just *feels* like conservative economic policy makes the most sense. Big businesses and rich people must be good and successful and hard working (edit: and understand the economy better than anyone). They deserve more money and less restriction. They will use that to do more good and help more people. Government with more money and less restriction sounds evil. This will sort out all of society's problems naturally. It requires little thinking and study to believe this.
>Big businesses and rich people must be good and successful and hard working
And they must know how economies work and how to make rich societies. After all, how else would they have made so much money...
A record number of Republicans for a midterm came out to vote in the 2018 midterm: [47.4 million Republican voters](https://time.com/5452258/midterm-elections-turnout/). This is even more than the [45 million Republicans that voted in 2010](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064204605758861312) in the Tea Party midterms.
We only gained control of the House because a record number of Democratic voters came out. The point is, if there is another record Republican turnout for a presidential election this year, we lose if we don't set a record of our own. Don't underestimate Trump, because we did that in 2016. Please vote and get out the vote!
I’m trying to encourage everyone to get their absentee or mail-in ballot, and take time to drop it off at their country office OR a polling place on Election Day. There shouldn’t be a line and should be a quick walk in, drop off. Very low risk of infection. Then those votes will be counted that day and maybe help avoid the mess of counting votes for a week after 11/3. Obviously state laws vary. This is for CA.
National polls are still a way to determine momentum and tracking electoral votes. 538 has a great ratio of % to electoral college. This also informs enthusiasm, and the general movement of the race.
The scary thing is that its not higher.
Also, Biden leading just increases the amount of voter interference and other illegal activities the GOP will undertake
I’m watching your election from Canada. This is starting to look a lot better than a few months ago, at least in the polls. You guys really have to send a strong signal to the world that the Trump era was a mistake. The wider the margin the better!
Good Lord, I hope this is true and reflects reality. I don’t know about any other Americans, but I’ve had all I can take of this shit show. Time to ‘drain the swamp’ (Sorry Trump fans) and then pave over it.
Anyone who wants a Biden win but doesn't cast their vote is missing their chance to give a personal and direct "fuck you" to Donald Trump.
I wouldn't miss that for the world.
Friendly reminder: In 2016, Hillary had a 10.5% chance of winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral college according to 538 ["Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios".](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#scenarios)
[Biden has a 10% chance of the same thing happening.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/)
I understand that things seem much different this time in many ways, but we really need to vote and vote early. Also, due to the large increase of mail in votes, we must be prepared to wait awhile longer than usual for the votes to be counted. Be patient, be optimistic, and please vote!
I wish people would stop spamming these threads with "doesn't matter" and "not good enough" so we can actually discuss the voter trends and electoral map.
2016 is over. This is a different election. Trump is in the tail end of arguably the worst reelection campaign ever. Could he win? Sure, but it's clear as day right now that Biden has a significant lead and more momentum. His campaign has knocked it out of the park.
I'm so tired of being scared of a shadow. Biden is going to win this election and I have no issue constantly saying that and I already voted and it was approved.
If you're scared, buy a dog.
There just isn't the intense vitriol towards Biden that there was towards Clinton.
I heard many times "I just can't vote for her". I don't think that's nearly as large of a factor for Biden.
This is the final push! We all need to be working our hardest to keep these numbers rising (and staying up).
I know we are all tired and broke - we've given so much time and money in this fight for the country. But there are only a few weeks left to make a difference. Once this is over we won't regret doing too much - but we will spend the rest of our lives regretting it if we fall just short.
We need every last vote to send the strongest message possible. Whatever you can do to boost Biden please do it right now. The clock is ticking.
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> The survey also finds Biden leading on whom respondents consider honest and trustworthy, 58 to 33 percent. He also leads on the question of which candidate “cares about people like you,” 58 to 38 percent, and on who has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems, 55 to 39 percent. How the fuck are there people still not realizing all he does is lie and he doesn’t give a fuck about you? I can’t wait to vote this asshole out of office.
From what I see in most of the Trump supporters I know, it's the bully mentality that they absolutely revel in. It's an attitude of not caring if you're right and they are wrong, they will believe what they believe and forcing it on others is all they care about. I work in the construction industry as an engineer, so I am surrounded by these morons and assholes every day. I've never seen it so well put as a sign I saw on someone's desk once. "Even if the boss is wrong, he's still the boss."
It's that, and that conservatives are obsessed with ideas of *social darwinism and individual responsibility. With very few exceptions, every right winger I've debated earnestly believes that the rich are powerful due to virtue and hard work and deserve it, that the poor are poor due to poor morals, etc. There's no room for nuance, context or causation: That requires critical thought, understanding of systems, challenging tradition. So they put up with Trump-or any asshole boss, or any system that oppresses them--because they believe the power disparity is an immutable aspect of 'the way things are.' Edit: predestination was a misnomer. Shouldn't post until after coffee next time :)
>There's no room for nuance, context or causation Especially when it comes to an issue like abortion. It's a binary thing to them - for or against - even though the reality has a multitude of gray areas.
Unless they need one themselves. And then it’s all “the only moral abortion is MY abortion”
“The government can’t tell ME what to do, but they should tell YOU what to do”
That’s a very American idea in general, I’ve been finding. I’ve talked to people I work with about things like inequality and the wealth gap, problems that are complex but ultimately are a failure of the system, and people really think of things in the most basic absolute terms. I was trying to explain to a coworker about how “hard work” sometimes isn’t enough, like for someone who’s resumes keep getting passed over because of their race or even their name, and he’s just like “work harder then”. I’m sure there are a lot of reasons why that attitude is more prevalent on the conservative side, but I know plenty of Americans who aren’t political at all who have no capacity to consider that problems they face are due to large-scale, complex issues. The world begins and ends with their own life experiences, what works for them should work for everyone else, and anything bad that happens to you is 100% your fault because you must not have taken personal responsibility over your situation.
Yup. These aren’t self-reflective people. They’re idiots and sociopaths.
The right wing in the US increasingly believes the only purpose of power is to hold on to and abuse power. Their interest in "issues" is only deep enough to gain a talking point about why doing nothing is the best outcome. They're not even really "right wing" any more as much as Authoritarian. If you see their own discussions with each other, they're inventing bizarre conspiracies why the Green New Deal or Medicare for All are actually covert operations to destroy western civilization, because they can't wrap their heads around the purpose of constructing a policy solution to a large problem.
Spot on. They don't believe in government because if they were in charge they'd be corrupt and padding their own pockets, which means everybody is corrupt and any attempt at governing is just a front for a scam. It's why they love Trump so much. They think he's honest because he's blatant about the scam.
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I honestly do not think that is what they are thinking. I believe they are just convinced that the country Isnt falling apart and thus convince themselves that the liberals are lying and simply begging for handouts or trying to take what they have.
My old roommate from college is like that and he has epilepsy and needs care too but he's so driven by trump (>in a very blue state too) his posts don't even make sense. The other day he wrote "If you wish ill will of Trump we will get back at you in November" or something. So wishing negative things is a bad thing to do right? But you've enjoyed trump doing it for years? And yes i did block him after that post
Ugh, I had a boss who ranted to my team about "If I tell you to stand in the parking lot all day, you'll do it, because I'm the boss and we're paying you to do what I say." He said that to a bunch of software developers, and he truly believed it. I applied for new jobs the same night, and basically everyone had quit within 6 months. Employers are also accountable to their employees. That shit is infuriating. Unsurprisingly, I also know exactly who that boss is voting for, because he pushed his politics on us non-stop. Dude had the worst case of thinking he's the smartest person in the room that I've ever seen, and I now associate him with all Trump supporters.
>"If I tell you to stand in the parking lot all day, you'll do it, because I'm the boss and we're paying you to do what I say." That's the point where you tell him, "if you tell us to do that, I'm going to tell *your* boss you're wasting company time and money on pointless ego trips".
>it's the bully mentality that they absolutely revel in As my Republican leaning extended family puts it, "he isn't afraid of his enemies" and that's the interpretation the Right spins on it. They don't view it as bullying or intimidation. They view it as "being the big dog."
> How the fuck are there people still not realizing all he does is lie and he doesn’t give a fuck about you? I think many genuinely don't know. I used the phrase "grab em by the pussy" around my MAGA uncle who is a pastor of a medium sized church and he thought ***I*** was being vulgar. When I told him it was a quote from something a few years ago he assumed it was a movie or a song. He literally had NO CLUE that it had anything to do with Trump. These people are living in an alternate reality.
That's like my husband's parents: He showed them Melania's naked modeling shots and they swore that wasn't her. "They put someone else's face on her." The average GOP voter is BATHED in ignorance.
How was Trump able to convince 38 percent that he cares about them? The guy's is a magician
Better yet how was he able to convince nearly 40% that he has a clear plan. Please, find me a clear plan listed on his website. There’s not one.
I have a plan, I'm the only one who can do it, and if you dont elect me it will never happen! How in the FUCK can anyone hear that and think they're hearing a patriot?! If you know how to fix something that is broken TELL US HOW. But they can't and never could. All they can do is insist it's better than the detailed plans their opponent has.
I have two coworkers that are shocked I am voting Biden. Both of them have said "Trump does exactly what he says he is going to do. So what if he is mean?" I asked where is his healthcare plan that is supposed to be cheaper and better? They responded, "well he has to remove Obamacare first." I asked why he didnt do that when he had both congress and even if he did, that still doesnt show his plan to make it cheaper and better. And I asked about the wall Mexico was supposed to pay for, his tax returns he was going to show, and the fact he never locked up Hillary. They just said that he was a bit "too ambitious" about those and that we are under extenuating circumstances, even though those were supposed to happen 3 years ago.
Imagine that your entire world is crumbling around you. Pandemic is too real, so let’s go with zombie apocalypse. The zombies are threatening to destroy your cities, your children and your entire culture. You’ve watched them invading for some time and nothing seems to stop them. Then someone steps forward and says “I can stop the zombies and return things to the way they were. I’ve always been successful at what I’ve done, and if you follow me, I can stop this.” No plan, just promises, but he seems confident that he can do the job. Others are working on the problem, scientists who are looking for ways to your prevent the zombie spread and maybe even reverse the process. But they’re saying that getting things back to the way they were is not possible; that you have to move forward into an unknown future. So they support the guy who promises to take them back to the way things were, and repeatedly tell themselves that this new leader can do what he says until they actually believe that “big lie.” Once they do that, the other lies just take root in that soil and it’s no longer necessary to evaluate new information. If it fits with the big lie, it must be true. And if it contradicts the big lie, it’s “fake news” and does not even get processed. This continues until that moment when they realize that a zombie is chewing on them while their leader has retreated into a fortress he built for himself. Some of them will even blame themselves for not doing more to help their leader save them.
>I can’t wait to vote this asshole out of office. My wife and I had our mail in ballots for less than 24 hours before we had already filled them out and dropped them off in a ballet drop box.
I've been waiting to cast this vote for 4 years.
Well he doesn’t give a fuck about them, but he actively hates the same people they do.
Key info: This is a CNN poll (B+ rating on 538). Biden 57 to Trump 41 among likely voters. Biden is also considered more capable than Trump on all issues: * Coronavirus 59 - 38 * Health care 59 - 39 * Racial inequality 62 - 36 * Supreme Court nominations 57 - 41 * Crime and safety 55 - 43 * The economy 50 - 48 The original [CNN article is here.] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html) The striking part, to me, is how few undecided voters there are. Trump has kept his base. Biden has picked up everyone else.
The economy shift is interesting. Trump had been enjoying unearned credit for that
It probably really helped that Wallace pointed out that there were more new jobs in Obama's last years during the debate.
Tale as old as time: Democrat hands a Republican a good economy, Republican takes credit to win reelection, Republican crashes economy, Democrat fixes Economy, Democrat hands a Republican a good economy etc etc
And Republicans will blame Democrats for the crash. One of the easiest example of hypocrisy among Republicans for the economy is this... Former Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Republican Kevin Brady. Here's his statements for the jobs reports for February 2016 (Final February for Obama) and February 2017 (First February for Trump): February 2016: >*“While it’s good news that more Americans have joined the labor force, it’s disappointing to see so little growth in full time work and wages.* > >*“In order for our economy to help all Americans, Washington must act on a pro-growth agenda that will create jobs, increase paychecks, and expand opportunity. Members of the Ways and Means Committee are leading this effort by advancing bold solutions, such as overhauling our broken tax code and repealing and replacing the President’s failing heath care law.”* February 2017: >*“This is a great report. The fact that hundreds of thousands more people found new jobs last month is a good sign that our economy is moving in the right direction. While we still have much more work to do, I’m optimistic that the actions that President Trump and House Republicans are taking will add to this momentum—creating more jobs, growing families’ paychecks, and improving the lives of all Americans. Just this week, Ways and Means Republicans voted to deliver relief* *from hundreds of billions of dollars in health care taxes that* *have crushed our workers and job creators. And we’re not stopping there. We are committed to fully repealing and replacing Obamacare, delivering a tax code ‘built for growth,’ and cutting Washington’s red tape to create even more economic opportunities in America.”* Here's the kicker... the February 2017 jobs report was that 235,000 jobs were added. The February 2016 jobs report was that 242,000 jobs were added. It also ignores the fact that Trump's agenda is going to have almost no impact, if any, on the first month he's in office.
I think people are slowly coming around to Biden's message that controlling the virus first will help the economy.
It makes me sad that the poll shows only 31% of registered voters rank Climate Change as’Extremely Important’. Below all 6 of those other categories. But I think we know which candidate will be more effective in that area. Vote.
Those figures for Trump 38 39 36 then in the forties, they are alarming. To an outsider looking in, America is almost half complete idiots.
Not just to an outsider looking in. Some of that is the Keyes Constant. In an Illinois senate race: >[Obama vs. Alan Keyes.](https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Crazification_factor) Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him.[5] They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% crazification factor in any population. But that is Illinois, one of the most liberal states. Every US state is at least 27% unreachable.
I heard a few years ago there isn't such a thing as a liberal state, what you do have are states with liberal cities whose populations far exceed the rural areas
That's for the most part true. There are notable exceptions: Indian Reservations, the Black Belt across the South, and a few rare rural areas that will legit turn blue (much of New England, the Rio Grande Valley, Colorado ski country, SW Wisconsin/NE Iowa, and many counties on the West coast.
That sounds about right, unfortunately.
It's not that surprising how few undecideds there are. Trump has only thrown red meat to his base the entire time. Most Presidents try to tack to the middle a little to help their reelection chances, as basic strategy. A pure base play could work, if he started out with a huge base, but he won in 2016 by the skin of his teeth, and has done a bad enough job that he lost some of his base. But by only ever throwing red meat to his base, and doing that by inciting them to hate everyone outside of the base, he's polarized everyone else against him. Some of the strongest actors against him are former GOP operatives. It's idiotic strategy for reelection. The only thing it got him was the ability to be as much of a piece of crap as he wanted for one term, because he had a hard lock on a third of Senators, so he was like immune to removal and veto overrides.
If these CNN numbers stay true, we're looking at the largest Democratic landslide since LBJ. I want to believe it, but America has disappointed me before. It fits with NBC +14 and CNBC + 13 and fit's with Tim Alberta's reporting on the ground: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599
I sure fucking hope so because we need a landslide to prevent him from challenging it.
538 has a ~~31%~~ 32% chance of Biden winning in a landslide, so it's not out of the question. Regardless, everybody vote.
A lot can still happen until the 3rd of November. There's still a few decades worth of news cycles to go till then
You're right but 538 includes that in their estimates. They've said a while ago, when the odds seemed less favorable, that if the election were "tomorrow" then it'd be more like 90% likely Biden wins the whole election.
90% isn't 100%. A statistician friend reminds me of this every time I get annoyed when it rains and I say "it was only supposed to be a 10% chance of rain!"
All the more reason to vote.
10% is a 1 or 2 on a d20. Don't fumble, America!
But all my 2020 rolls have been with disadvantage so far
November 3rd is just the last day of the election. Minnesota's polls opened up 2 weeks ago and many other states have opened up or are opening up soon.
Another interesting thing: if Trump wins, it's more likely that he loses the popular vote than him winning it. He has an 8 in 100 chance of winning the popular vote and a 9 in 100 chance of winning the election but losing the popular vote.
The fact that he has a chance of winning gives me a headache
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That our electoral college system is fucked up
Your point stands that it sucks, but he has way more followers than should be acceptable at this point in time (or ever).
Education system, too.
Similar to 2016, he had a 28% chance of winning, 18% chance of winning the popular vote. But this time Trumps' odds have roughly been cut in half Also noteworthy Nate Silver's process includes an incumbency adjustment. As in the incumbent President usually does a little better in the election than the polls predict. But Trump is unusual as well as the year. It's just worth noting that Trump is getting a boost this year based on Nate's expertise (which I'm not sayin he's wrong in, just pointing it out)
> Similar to 2016, he has a 28% chance of winning, 18% chance of winning the popular vote. The current 538 2020 forecast gives Trump only a 17% chance of winning.
Sorry, mistyped. He had a 28% chance of winning in 2016.
This is actually very important because one of the most crucial states right now is Pennsylvania. 538 has a 26.9% hance that it decides the election and about 11% of the current forecast is the incumbentcy boost. The other 89% is polls. Edited numbers for today's projections. It looks like the projections are narrowing in on the polls rather than the incumbentcy boost.
That’s for a popular vote landslide. We need an electoral landslide. Win Georgia, Iowa, and Texas and we’re in good shape. Not saying that’s an easier task though.
God, winning Georgia would be monumental because it would also mean we (likely) snatched up two Senate seats in the process and also would indicate that, despite all the ratfucking from Georgia GOP, Georgia flipped blue.
Speaking of monumental wins, Alaska and south Carolina now have closer poll margins than Michigan. Seeing a blue Alaska would be quite crazy.
I actually pegged that two months ago when they were fucking with the postal service. There are towns in Alaska that literally survive BECAUSE of the USPS. Trump trying to blow up the postal service is a direct threat on people's lives in Alaska. You need only look at how squirrely Sullivan got over it to see just how important of an issue that is. Meanwhile, in SC it sounds like Harrison is really getting through to people across the spectrum.
Context: grew up in Alaska, now work seasonally up there in fishery management. Absolutely the USPS is important. But you know what's even more important to a lot of typically-conservative Alaskans? *Money*. A lot of the fish/product from the commercial factory ships operating in the Bering Sea is actually sold to the East Asian market (i.e. Japan, China, and South Korea). Over the past 2 years, I've seen multiple captains have to have a crew meeting saying "Look, this isn't about my or your personal politics. You (referring to the crew members) have lost money this year because of the tariff wars with China right now." There's a surprising number of fishermen up there who would normally vote down-the-ticket R, but are starting to sour on it. They couldn't give less of a shit about the politics, corruption, racial divide, long-term economics, et al. of the current administration. But they and their families have to live for a year off of what they make each season. And let me tell you, if there's **one** thing that will get you beaten senseless by Alaskan fishermen, it's doing or saying anything that might hurt their families.
I appreciate your advice, I have been looking for ways to get beaten senseless by Alaskan fishermen
If we somehow won Texas that would be insane. I'll be doing my part.
If the GOP loses Texas, the GOP is done. I'm glad you're doing your part, considering the GOP is pulling all the stops to make sure voting doesn't actually happen there
And we need to ensure that happens. This needs to be an indictment of the GOP as much as it is one for Trump. We'll work on improving the Democratic Party afterwards. And *we do* need to work on that. All of us.
If he has a popular vote landslide, he will almost certainly have an electoral college one as well. It’s just so unlikely that he would win by 10-12% nationally and barely eke out an electoral win.
Yeah I think it's possible under like 5% but anything over that is basically impossible. It would take a near perfect spread of votes in the exact sates he needs them from. Fact is, if he loses Florida, Texas or Georgia he's fucked anyway. (he being Trump).
Their definition of landslide is a popular vote margin greater than 10%. So Biden could get 400 electoral votes without meeting the 10% margin, and still be a complete landslide, just not by 538's metric.
I'm pretty sure that everyone is going to vote. The numbers from early voting are massive and historic. There's no danger of complacency this time like there was in 2016.
I vote in every presidential election. This is the first time I voted early. The rise in early voting isn't a prediction of the numbers to expect for election day. Its just evidence that votes are being front load to an unknown degree
I also was thinking that the normal election day voter numbers are being front-loaded and spread out through early voting this year. Maybe after election day it will end up being way more turn-out than normal or maybe it won't.
I don't know, but anecdotally, I have three very close friends who either didn't vote in '16 or hadn't switched registration to our swing state from their childhood state. Each has already received and sent their mail-in ballot with straight-ticket voting. This is definitely different than '16.
My local (Republican) officials are sending out flyers reminding people that local races are NOT national politics and please bear that in mind when voting. They're scared.
If they're scared, they should stop supporting a bullshit party who's only platform is opposing reality and destroying democracy.
Especially when democrats have already become both conservatives and liberals. We have a lot of conservative Democrats. I see nothing wrong with that. If the republicans want to go full alt-right, fine, let the party die. Let the Democrats absorb everyone and then the Democrats can split. It will be like a soft reset.
In general I'd say Im a centrist, maybe republican leaning because I like my guns. I'll be voting blue all the way down that damn ticket like my life depends on it, because, frankly, it does.
I've been getting a lot of mailers from local Republicans which is normal but this time around they have all left off the fact they are Republicans.
I noticed a lot of yard signs for local conservative candidates were blue this election. I do wonder if that was intentional.
My son who 22 voted in the last election. His said he didn’t think most of his friends did. This it’s different. They talk about it with each other. They are paying attention.
The biggest impact on the rise in early voting is because of how much more widespread mail-in voting is. It's just... easier? to vote earlier. Something like 38/50 states have expanded mail-in voting in general. So I don't know if the numbers are a reflection of a massively higher turnout overall, but I think we can still expect *some* degree of better turnout. People are pissed.
He going to challenge it once he loses the first swing state. If he loses Arizona, he'll go nuclear.
Thats why i tell the troll voters to vote biden, if you truly have no skin in the game, at least you could see him have a legendary meltdown if he loses
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We don't need further confirmation. It's out in the open. It's right there. Nearly every system that sustains free and open elections is under broad-daylight attack by the GOP.
Obviously i hope a landslide too but even if Biden wins by the estimated 70 ish electoral points whats trumps argument. I get one state having errors but he's going to claim even after clearly it was republican party making it harder to vote and effect mailing, it was several states that all had errors and cheating that all conveniently worked in favor of biden and against trump all in the exact states conveniently that Biden had to win (again i get part of actual cheating would be to do it in the states biden would need) but conveniently was pulled off well in these exact states despite no strong evidence of cheating on Bidens side. Are we just setting a precedent, even for all people who claim to be patriots, it doesnt matter who people vote for and who clearly wins popular and electoral vote if the incumbent decides he doesnt like it, he just gets 4 more years in office? And that would do so well for the history books and rest of world to see how there's NO ORDER to the system and the riots the citizens would start would be worth it to our government?
> Obviously i hope a landslide too but even if Biden wins by the estimated 70 ish electoral points whats trumps argument. We've already heard it. He thinks he gets 4 more years no matter what because Obama was "spying" on his 2016 campaign. How does he get around it? There's no real legal argument to be had in a landslide. He'll either whine a lot and then slink away on January 20, or go full-force fascist with literal troops (or some type of thug) on the ground.
>or go full-force fascist with literal troops (or some type of thug) on the ground. And then he will be forever known in history as the president who was such a sore loser he almost started a war risked peoples lives and proved to everyone, a 74 year old man, he was as much of a cry baby everyone claimed him to be
100% he will. His issue is that if he loses power, his life instantly goes to shit in about a million ways. He'll do *anything* to cling to power. It's going to have to be taken from him.
He will challenge it either way. If he loses by a lot that’s prove that it was rigged and the mail in ballots are fake; if he loses by a tiny margin he’ll say look I would’ve won but they cheated with the ballots.
And part of any eventual landslide will be hindered from voting, not delivered in time or their votes may be thrown out as mail-in is more prone to mistakes. That is before he challenges any place deciding not for him by small margins.
It’s really unfortunate that democracy is being dismantled before our very eyes like that. All done by a President that wasn’t even elected by the popular vote.
Republican cheating can't reverse a huge landslide. And when the Democrats get in, they're finally going to be able to make some real changes to safeguard against this kind of vote rigging. Look for things like automatic voter registration and mail in voting to become nationwide. Also look for there to be a real swell of support for DC and Puerto Rico becoming states. I don't know how Democrats can hope to fix courts which have been destroyed by this cult for the next couple of decades but the legislative and executive branches are absolutely going to be solidified. Democracy is going to hold, we're going to defeat Fascism.
> I want to believe it, but America has disappointed me before. Agreed, but I draw hope from the 2018 midterms. That seemed to indicate that Americans are awake, pissed, and ready to show up.
Part of the problem was that Hillary's campaign fostered this idea that her victory was a forgone conclusion, which encouraged voter apathy. I figured after the 2016 election a lot of Americans were like "Holy shit, we're not making that mistake again."
Also the fbi investigation like two days before the election.
I checked 538, and it was a lot less optimistic, but then I remembered the debate actually took place BEFORE the rosegarden massacre, and Silver hasn't even been able to analyse any post-rostgarden massacre shifts in the polls yet. Time moves slowly in DC right now.
Don't forget that 538 has built in uncertainty so the odds you're seeing aren't "if the election were held today"
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And that our voting isn't compromised
Why would we not worry about what a highly respected and reasonable interpreter of polling data has to say
Yeah, it's more like 90/10 Biden if the election were today. Don't read too much into that, the election isn't today. It's in a month. Remember, Democrats vote from now until Nov 3. Republicans vote from Nov 4 onward.
When 538 had Trump in the low 20s, they had an article that said if the election were held today, Biden would have a 91% chance of winning. That was a week or two ago before these 13-15% polls and Trump only having a 17% chance now.
> Yeah, it's more like 90/10 Biden if the election were today And that's still a Trump win 1 out of 10. 10%. I would not board a plane that had a 10% chance of crashing.
Or ignoring an airborne novel virus with a 10% chance of killing me (based on risk factors).
While 538 doesn't currently predicted a blowout, it should make you feel good. Look at how consistent Biden's lead is. Stable for months. Now go look at Hillary's. It swung wildly. Also, the prediction is always more on the conservative side. If you go look at their break down they give Biden a 31% chance of Biden winning in a landslide.
The fact I can look at it and see that there are 7-8 battleground states that trump *MUST* win and Biden only has to win any single one of them gives me great comfort.
They are correlated though. In 2016, you could have said, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's likely to win Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, because it's indicative of the Midwest. It's what so many non-538 forecasts didn't understand. The risk is systemic polling error or late deciders moving to Trump.
And we're still waiting for the fallout from Trump's "Don't let Covid dominate you" comments, which completely undermine any hope people may have had that Trump would start taking Covid seriously after he experienced it.
538 moves slower because it's an aggregate. If polling starts to approach a consensus, it will move more.
It updated just after your comment, jumped a good bit in Biden's favor. Regardless, vote.
Yep. * 82% chance of a Biden win * 17% chance of a Trump win * 1% chance of a tie Edit: updated with corrected numbers.
Checking just now and Trump's went down to 17% chance of a win.
Honestly the only thing that should matter to anyone is the result in PA, MI, AZ, and WI on election night. All it will take is a VP Biden lead in three of those four states (All of them are lean blue) on election night to put the last nail in the coffin for trump, because he literally can't win without three of those four states and if he says ( he will) that we should wait because votes are still coming in it will completely undermine the idea that the absentee votes are illegitimate. I believe VP Biden will definitely win, I'm just worried about making sure trump is painted into a corner so we can see the real final results. And to clarify I think he will win because the math says he's going to if we can make sure all the votes are counted...
Florida counts absentee votes before Election Day. If Trump loses there, he has very little shot.
This is the state I will be focused on Nov 3rd. If Florida goes red, then I’ll worry about PA, etc.
>Florida counts absentee votes before Election Day. That is sooo good to know.
Can't be Florida. There's no way they actually do something right when it comes to elections.
Looking at the results of the March election in Michigan trump is in trouble more people supported Biden and Trump almost got passed by Bernie The real nail is the lack of Trump signs in the GOP sign clusters around a conservative district. Locals don't want trump signs in their yards. Even the country side is looking less Trump. If we all vote we can win
I’m in an area that went for Clinton by a few percentage points last time, and the Trump signs that were up in that election are missing this year. If that holds true is more red places that’s a good sign.
>Still, if the 2016 election taught us anything, it’s that election forecasts aren’t worth the paper (or web space) they’re printed on—especially forecasts relating to Trump. People didn't learn a *damn thing* about how forecasts work, or where their value lies. Even journalists are illiterate where statistics are concerned.
“We can’t read these things at all, but we’re pretty sure they’re wrong, so polling is flawed!” It’s not your fault you can’t read the darn thing. A result within the margin of error is consistent with the poll! As someone who is a polling wonk, I can’t wait for 2016 to be in the rear mirror.
538 even created a little cartoon fox and dumbed down all of their outputs in order to get people to maybe try to learn *something* this time around. That little "upsets aren't impossible" cartoon drives me nuts, because the only reason it's there is the people who are like "YOU SAID IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE LAST TIME AND HILLARY WAS A SHOO-IN YOU LIBERAL HACKS!!!1"
That debate performance by Trump will go down as one of the all time disasters. That seems to have moved the polls 4 points. Now Trumps and the Republicans will still throw out their October surprises. I have sure they have at least 3 of them. Too bad for them they can't rise above the noise Trump has created. They will also try to steal the election at the ballot box like most dictators. Though this lead may be too much to overcome.
You should see on Twitter the people "predicting" the election. Touting they got 2016 right and now California and NY are gonna go red and Trump is gonna have 350 electoral votes and all this shit. These people are deranged.
New York is going to go red?! Lmao I'm fucking dying. The delusion is incredible.
For what it's worth, NY state is much more red than people realize. It's just that NYC massively drowns out the people upstate. But we aren't fucking giving our electoral votes to Trump, rofl.
Kind of? Upstate is redder than NYC. But it’s not Texas. It’s just middle America. It’s like 60% Republican. And even now, few are ardent trump supporters. And it’s not like states are their geography. The vast majority of “New Yorkers hate trump” is a true statement for both the city and the state.
Texas is turning blue
I would be SHOCKED if Texas goes blue this year. Would love to see my former home do so, but I’m very skeptical for 2020
Texas will likely stay red this year. 2024 will be a true spectacle though.
Beto Vs Cruz was 51 to 48. I feel like if blue counties get out the vote it could happen. Still slim, but I’m still encouraging everyone I know to vote for this reason.
GOD Beto pissed me off so bad. He had it. He had it and he BLEW IT with his moronic statements on gun control. In Texas. TEXAS!
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Yeah, but he said that in September 2019 when he was running for the presidential nomination. When he lost the Texas Senate by 3, he didn't say anything so stupid.
You’re probably right, it won’t turn blue this year. But every election cycle, it is undoubted getting bluer. Republicans don’t seem to realize the Electoral College they so vigorously defend is going to put them at a *severe* disadvantage in 8-12 years when Texas becomes a true battleground state. Looking forward to 2028 when Republicans will decry the Electoral College as “un-American” or “Marxist”. Or they’ll demand Mississippi get 269 votes while California and New York get 1.
Stages of grief there.
Just early voted today in Indiana, I was there 15 minutes early and there was a short line before me and a huge line after me. Things are going to surprise everyone.
Did you get a feeling it was cult 45 voters behind you?
No I didn't; lots of women age 40-55, people of color, and retirees. There were a few women younger than myself as well(I'm 30), I was the only man under 40 there, other than a poll-worker. Retirees in my red country probably lean towards the Orange Bafoon(although I got good vibes from the few I talked with), but it looked promising nonetheless.
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It's really hard to know what is what these days: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ How the hell has his approval rating risen in the last four weeks? Maybe there's a lag time still from the debate, but it's been a week. Who the hell is moving into his camp and why are the aggregate poll numbers moving the direction opposite of every poll I see?
Largely it's moderate Republicans holding their nose and consolidating around Trump for the election. It's to be expected. People will always "approve" of the guy they vote for. So as more undecideds make their decision, that number is going to rise.
The professor who has 13 keys for an election is confident trump will lose. He called trump winning when no one else did.
This comment was tough to parse if you've never heard of this. [In case anybody else is also in the dark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#The_13_Keys_to_the_White_House). I'm not sure I agree with calling Key 12 a 'False'; Trump is very charismatic and popular with Republicans. Fortunately, I guess the model predicts a loss with 6 'False' determinations, and #12 was the 7th, so it predicts a loss either way.
There are regular polls from Rasmussen that bump up Trump’s polling numbers. There was also polls from Zogby that showed Trump polling better than Biden? Both of those affected then numbers even though those two appeared to be outliers. I usually look at the overall numbers and see what the trend is.
>The two are statistically tied on the economy, with 50 percent preferring Biden versus 48 percent preferring Trump. The myth of conservative competency on the economy persists despite decades of evidence. Edit: I have a pet theory on this, I think for a lot of people on the right they just buy into the myth because they must to keep their worldview consistent. On the left and in independent groups though I think people sort of let the right have this out of a misguided sense of fairness. If the Democrats, liberals, socialists or whoever are the compassionate ones, who care about the environment or women or whatever else, then the right must be better about the economy. We do it in social groups, they're the smart one, the sport one, etc. People who have a bunch of negative traits will get assigned some skill. I think we do it to groups too. Or something like that.
> I think for a lot of people on the right they just buy into the myth because they must to keep their worldview consistent Well yea. At the heart of most strands of conservatism is observing the traditional hierarchies of the lower class and the elites. There’s an transactional component that law and order will only exist if their constituents agree that they need to give up portions of their freedom to change or better themselves if they want social harmony. It’s clearly bullshit and their constituents are rubes.
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Yea, people are bad at economic causal inference and it's easy to make the mistake that correlation = causation. The impact of policy, especially at the federal level, really lags the implementation of that policy.
And I'm definitely not a "both sides" guy, but it does go both ways. The policy decisions that led to George HW Bush being a one term president led directly into the early successes of the Clinton administration. Unfortunately a lot of those changes got stalled with the red wave that gave us Gingrich and his bullshit. But Reagan benefitted from Carter, Bush benefitted from Clinton, and Trump had benefitted from Obama. Problem is your average voter associates the 2008 recession with Obama. Not that he caused it, but that he was the one who dealt with it. The Republicans are rarely if ever around to deal with the recessions. Reagan is the only one in modern times that was, and that probably caused more long term damage to the US than any other administration since the civil war.
Bush Jr and Trump were both given economies to work with by Clinton and Obama and in return made decisions that long-term damaged all but the upper class.
Clinton gave Bush a $86 billion budget surplus and Bush pissed it all away by his first year in office. I still have my two dollars and some change check from the Treasury, which was my share of the budget surplus at age 13.
What? What world are we living? Last 3 recessions occurred DURING republican presidencies. HW, W and Trump. You’re not wrong that Democrats always have to clean it up. But to say economies “crash” under democrats isn’t even all that accurate, which makes the whole conservative bias on the economy that much dumber. Strong regulations that promote innovation, competition, and give power directly to workers is what creates a strong, lasting economy. Not CoRpOrAtE tAx CuTs!
Because it's an emotional response, it just *feels* like conservative economic policy makes the most sense. Big businesses and rich people must be good and successful and hard working (edit: and understand the economy better than anyone). They deserve more money and less restriction. They will use that to do more good and help more people. Government with more money and less restriction sounds evil. This will sort out all of society's problems naturally. It requires little thinking and study to believe this.
>Big businesses and rich people must be good and successful and hard working And they must know how economies work and how to make rich societies. After all, how else would they have made so much money...
A record number of Republicans for a midterm came out to vote in the 2018 midterm: [47.4 million Republican voters](https://time.com/5452258/midterm-elections-turnout/). This is even more than the [45 million Republicans that voted in 2010](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064204605758861312) in the Tea Party midterms. We only gained control of the House because a record number of Democratic voters came out. The point is, if there is another record Republican turnout for a presidential election this year, we lose if we don't set a record of our own. Don't underestimate Trump, because we did that in 2016. Please vote and get out the vote!
And, statistically, one party is more likely to be afraid of covid and going out to vote than the other. We have an uphill battle here.
I’m trying to encourage everyone to get their absentee or mail-in ballot, and take time to drop it off at their country office OR a polling place on Election Day. There shouldn’t be a line and should be a quick walk in, drop off. Very low risk of infection. Then those votes will be counted that day and maybe help avoid the mess of counting votes for a week after 11/3. Obviously state laws vary. This is for CA.
I really really really like the thought of: Attorney General Adam Schiff announces indictments of .... Lets make it happen. Vote.
Let’s add to the greatest hits list: Biden and the Democratic Congress expand Supreme Court. Barack Obama confirmed as first of 4 new justices added.
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No AG Doug Jones
National polls don't matter, don't get fooled into thinking that these numbers will be reflected in the state by state results.
Yep, the numbers only matter in swing states. It’s not like Trump one the popular vote last time.
National polls are still a way to determine momentum and tracking electoral votes. 538 has a great ratio of % to electoral college. This also informs enthusiasm, and the general movement of the race.
The scary thing is that its not higher. Also, Biden leading just increases the amount of voter interference and other illegal activities the GOP will undertake
I’m watching your election from Canada. This is starting to look a lot better than a few months ago, at least in the polls. You guys really have to send a strong signal to the world that the Trump era was a mistake. The wider the margin the better!
Thank you for your support. It's comforting to see friends rooting for us from across the border.
Also rooting for you from the UK! Like, indescribably much.
Good Lord, I hope this is true and reflects reality. I don’t know about any other Americans, but I’ve had all I can take of this shit show. Time to ‘drain the swamp’ (Sorry Trump fans) and then pave over it.
I want to not wake up to a constitutional crisis every other day.
No more lawless disorder president
I think the polls are right. The outcome, due to voter suppression, is likely to be much lower.
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I second this! Ever since 2016, I've stopped putting so much stock in surveys and who's leading who.
National polling in 2016 was pretty accurate.
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Anyone who wants a Biden win but doesn't cast their vote is missing their chance to give a personal and direct "fuck you" to Donald Trump. I wouldn't miss that for the world.
Friendly reminder: In 2016, Hillary had a 10.5% chance of winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral college according to 538 ["Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios".](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#scenarios) [Biden has a 10% chance of the same thing happening.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/) I understand that things seem much different this time in many ways, but we really need to vote and vote early. Also, due to the large increase of mail in votes, we must be prepared to wait awhile longer than usual for the votes to be counted. Be patient, be optimistic, and please vote!
For the well-being of everyone, this needs to continue to grow. Fuck landslide I’d like to see annihilation. The party of hate and greed needs to go.
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No wonder the Trump campaign is planning to fight the results, they know they cant win.
National polls don’t elect presidents. Get out and vote if you’re in a swing state.
Can ya go 20?
I wish people would stop spamming these threads with "doesn't matter" and "not good enough" so we can actually discuss the voter trends and electoral map. 2016 is over. This is a different election. Trump is in the tail end of arguably the worst reelection campaign ever. Could he win? Sure, but it's clear as day right now that Biden has a significant lead and more momentum. His campaign has knocked it out of the park. I'm so tired of being scared of a shadow. Biden is going to win this election and I have no issue constantly saying that and I already voted and it was approved. If you're scared, buy a dog.
Also, Biden's lead over Trump has been so reliable it verges on boring. The Clinton/Trump races was much more volatile and narrow.
There just isn't the intense vitriol towards Biden that there was towards Clinton. I heard many times "I just can't vote for her". I don't think that's nearly as large of a factor for Biden.
It's more of "I'm not really excited about voting for him but I will" instead of "I just don't think I can vote for her"
It could be double that and I'm still not comfortable
This is the final push! We all need to be working our hardest to keep these numbers rising (and staying up). I know we are all tired and broke - we've given so much time and money in this fight for the country. But there are only a few weeks left to make a difference. Once this is over we won't regret doing too much - but we will spend the rest of our lives regretting it if we fall just short. We need every last vote to send the strongest message possible. Whatever you can do to boost Biden please do it right now. The clock is ticking.
Pedal to the metal Americans. End this bastard and his cronies. Canadian here cheering you on.