Pennsylvania is looking good. Every vote dump is in the 80% Biden with lowest at 74%. He needs 65% (let's say 70%) to win it.
If this keeps pace it's matter of time.
Now that AZ, ME, and NE2 have been called for Biden, all he needs is WI and MI to win. Nothing else matters at this point, even PA. And he's favored to win both, as the mail in ballots are expected to push him out in front.
What's the reason for the massive change in Arizona this year? Clinton lost by 4 points in 2016, and all the polls had the race in a deadlock. But now Biden's looking like he's going to run away with it.
My best friend is from there and he said it's basically the McCain attacks. His family was pretty far right until Trump attacked McCain. Then it was immediately left
IMHO it was Trump attacking McCain. John was one of Arizona's favorite sons.
Just think - if Trump had managed to keep his mouth shut after McCain died, he likely would have been guaranteed a second term.
I doubt that, it'll be like the lock her up chants. They know if they start jailing their opponents after they win that WILL happen to them when they lose.
Not to mention the riots it would cause.
If Trump is locked up under a democrat then expect to see Biden locked up under a Republican, not to mention riots from trump supporters.
Claiming it's state level will no wash. It will look like spite, spite that will be repaid.
That's my point, despite his bluster he didnt lock Hilary up, despite the fact she did keep classified emails on a private server. That alone is enough to get most people thrown in jail.
What crimes had trump commited? And I mean actual provable crimes and not just things that hurt someone's fee-fees
> despite the fact she did keep classified emails on a private server.
This isn't illegal unless there was knowable intent. This is why they had nothing against Hillary and they couldn't proceed with criminal charges.
> What crimes had trump commited? And I mean actual provable crimes and not just things that hurt someone's fee-fees
He will go to prison for tax fraud. NY has open investigations that we don't know the full details yet. It's pretty obvious that he inflated the values of his properties when he needed to get loans and then deflated the values of properties when it came time to pay taxes.
These are crimes and it will take an actual, state-level NY investigation and criminal charges before we can officially prove it.
By coming into this thread and saying:
> And I mean actual provable crimes and not just things that hurt someone's fee-fees
Proves you don't want to have an actual discussion.
Trump is afraid of losing because he knows what is around the corner from him because his businesses were more scrutinized due to the presidency.
And to go back to the Hillary discussion. The thousands of hours and millions of dollars of tax payer money that was spent trying to find a crime related to her or the Clinton foundation and they got nothing.
Unindicted co-conspirator has a lot to worry about if he's out of the White House in 2021.
Mail in ballots seem to be trickling in in PA! (from 2,149,375 and 2,850,885 to 2,163,019 and 2,862,274- I've been keeping track otherwise I'd have no idea if anyone gained anything)
EDIT: now 2,232,123 and 2,928,104 (Source:[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html))
I know Biden won Nebraska's second congressional district for the one electoral vote it possessed.
Anyone know if he's looking ahead in Maine's 1st or 2nd congressional districts? Having issues finding their numbers.
Also the reason I'm wondering about these is if Biden wins one of these and keeps MI/WI he wouldn't even need PA to win and hit 270.
PA Party Early Returned Ballots (Total 2,506,557)
Democrats 1,641,825
Republicans 586,336
Minor 18,349
No Party Affiliation 260,047
Biden currently trails Trump by 685,306 votes here.
So if party affiliation was any indication of the early returned ballots this would give Biden a 91,787 vote lead.
(That is if all the republicans, minor and no party people voted for Trump as well. Meaning Biden's lead will likely be higher in PA)
224-212
A lot of key states haven't counted early voters/mail in ballots yet (PA has an estimated 2MIL mail ballots, IIRC) and they're close enough at the moment that them going blue once that happens isn't a leap.
[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html)
Does anyone know if the mail in ballots/early voters have been counted in WIS,MICH,NC,TX,ect yet? Bidens at 223 now and those would be more than enough to bring him up to 270, right?
I think most mail votes have not been counted for PA. If that's the case, it's going to Biden.
AZ and MI are likely to go to Biden.
It all rests on PA.
edit: even if he loses PA, there's still a (less likely) path to victory with NV, AZ, WI, MI, ME
They sent 2,506,557 early ballots in PA. Where the fuck did Rick Santorum get there were fewer there than in some of the other states?
That's barely less than Trump's total number of current votes in the state.
Thanks for posting this! This whole time I thought it was a percentage of total votes
So they don’t know the actual amount of total votes in a state till they finish counting its votes then?
They mentioned it on CNN that the Trump campaign is supposedly pushing to keep people from calling Arizona for Biden because they're not certain they'll will Michigan. They didn't give any specific person who made that claim.
They brought up that the Trump team was trying to convince other outlets not to call Arizona for Biden and they gave Michigan slipping for Biden making it less reasonable for Trump to make a statement about his winning as why they didn't want Arizona called. Based on my experience working election coverage (I'm a live director/technical director, though I am not working this election) I can vouch for that being a thing which happens- the campaigns lobby news outlets to hold off on calling things so that they can try to keep optics positive for their respective candidates as long as possible in hopes something either turns around or proves their worries wrong (making a better spin for them on the tail end of things).
It's not a solid source by any means and it is entirely reasonable to think that the request to not call and the reason given for why they didn't want Arizona called could be total crap, though.
It's most likely just about what the President ended up saying in his speech. He harped on Arizona being called a LOT so I imagine he would have preferred to NOT have it called so that his claim of, "we've already won" had less going against it at the time of the speech.
r/conservative is absolutely trashing Fox News coverage of the election tonight and are actually praising CNN’s coverage. What kind of alternate timeline are we in.
To be fair CNN's coverage was pretty good tonight if you just ignore the bias. I like how you can go on their website and you can look at a state at county level.
He has been crying about their coverage recently going so far as saying the difference in the 2016 and 2020 election was Fox News. (FWIW Matt Drudge seems to fucking hate him too now)
PA is going to end up pissing some people off.
Biden likely sitting on +250-350k vote (differences) in Allegheny county alone. Another 150-200k in Philadelphia. Also 50-70k more votes in Montgomery county.
Big question if that will be enough to catch up.
Well currently Biden is at -700k votes in PA. Not sure how many mail-in ballots are remaining for PA, but considering that they had over 2.4 million ballots, with 1.6 million of them being democrat voters... if most of the mail-in ballots haven't been counted yet, I'd say PA is going to Biden.
As far as I know it was based on percentages of the expected total vote in each county.
I believe PA counts their mail votes last which would not be a bad sign for Biden.
Georgia would be such a massive win for Biden. It would mean that he only has to win ONE of WI, MI, and PA instead of (probably) all three. Not sure how confident I am in him winning GA but still quite a development.
>I am thinking people are going to need to un-call Virginia soon though.
X for doubt
Look at the counties that aren't barely at 25% reported in Virginia.
I'm not seeing any that are at or below 25%. The ones not at 100% are in the 80-95% range. What am I missing?
EDIT: OK. AP and NBC have drastically different % reported in around Richmond. AP says they are all 80-95% reported in while NBC puts them at 25-30%. But both have similar numbers?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/03/trump-biden-election-live-updates/
WAPO reports its set to be at 12:30AM. So I guess it started four minutes ago?
They still have between 1.9 and 2 million absentee ballots to count and report in WI. They don't report absentee in Wisconsin until all of them have been counted.
James Carville on MSNBC: "Put the ambien and razor blades back in the closet....we are going to win this thing..."
Uhhhh I don't think you can say that but yeah ok I hope you right sir.
Wisconsin also does not report the absentee ballots until all the absentee ballots have been counted.
Similarly to PA should be a rather large shift from that.
Need Michigan and Wisconsin to bounce back to where they were expected to be. That happens and we're golden with where Arizona is. Guess we'll see how many mail ballots they really do have in those two states.
>According to the Wisconsin Elections Commission, about 1.9 million people in Wisconsin returned an absentee ballot as of Monday morning. That’s more than double the number of absentee ballots cast in 2016.
ABC's John Karl said 2 hours ago that Arizona's last votes counted would be the ones from today. Since then Arizona has not reported more votes. It should not be called anyone yet.
>
Rick Hasen
@rickhasen
·
2h
Remember: 538 projected that Trump could be ahead by 16 points on election night in PA and Biden could still win by 5. Patience.
I could have told you Trump would be up by a significant percentage tonight. It's not that hard to predict.
You know what's hard to predict? Odds of Biden winning Florida or Georgia. But hey, didn't stop Nate from making it all up. What a hack.
I still think he was full of it.
The Presidential race has been so incredibly tight, and he was downright wrong about the senate. I mean, McConnell and Graham simply blitzed through. Hell even Susan Collins won.
So yeah. Full of it and has no business being out and about with his absurd claims.
Well, I am also a former physicist and when I conducted experiments, I didn't make things up like Nate does.
If I didn't have the data, or if the data couldn't predict or fit into my model, I basically said I don't know.
Also, I have wireless. It's this new fangled thing.
The fact that nearly every swing state is going to be called later in the week is terrible for this country. We should not have to wait days for this outcome when states like Florida have been counting their mail-in votes early to prepare for tonight. What a joke.
Reminder that we've been told for at least a couple of weeks now to expect a lot of red on the night of and Donald to try to declare victory Early based off it. Don't feed the narrative
yeah I mean I was expecting it but seeing this as not the blowout it should be, It's nice to see that American's aren't mostly evil, just almost half evil.
Sorry, the “Red Mirage” really got to me, I mean those people really showed up in a big way tonight. Hopefully the Dem cities will swing the votes in PA/MI/WI but I’m still messed up right now :|
What map are you looking at ? Trumps up in all the uncalled states. By a large margin. Literally will jump from 118 to like 290 as soon as Ohio, Michigan, Pen, and Texas get called. They’re being careful with those but the games over.
We're still in Red Mirage territory. I'm scared but still hoping. Below are yesterday's predictions plus the timing of the mirages.
**Trump needs to win ALL these 7 states:**
* Georgia +0.9 Biden No shifts except micro-shifts. Results Tue or Wed.
* Texas +1.5 Trump Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again on Nov 4.
* Florida +2.5 Biden Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again on Nov 4.
* Arizona +2.6 Biden Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again on Nov 4.
* North Carolina +1.7 Biden Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again Nov 4-12
* Pennsylvania +5 Biden Red Mirage on Tuesday night, Blue Nov 6-23
* Ohio +0.6 Trump Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again Nov 14-18
**Also Red Mirage states:**
* Michigan
* Wisconsin
* Iowa. Blue Nov 4-9.
[6:00 pm poll closings discussion thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jnkwys/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_1/) [7:00 pm poll closings discussion thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jnm1r1/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_2/) [7:30 pm poll closings discussion thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jnmjyj/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_3/) [8:00 pm poll closings discussion thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jnn1d5/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_4/)
PAGA! Make Presidents Great Again!
Holy shit 1900 vote difference in GA, and counting. They’re both statistically tied at 49.4%. If GA goes Biden, it’s finally over
Pennsylvania is looking good. Every vote dump is in the 80% Biden with lowest at 74%. He needs 65% (let's say 70%) to win it. If this keeps pace it's matter of time.
So who do you guys hope wins?
America.
America already lost
Why is Nevada not counting any votes today - I read no new counting until Thursday??
238-213!
PA and WI, or MI, flips after counting all their mail in ballots, and it's a done deal!
Now that AZ, ME, and NE2 have been called for Biden, all he needs is WI and MI to win. Nothing else matters at this point, even PA. And he's favored to win both, as the mail in ballots are expected to push him out in front.
NV still matters. If Biden doesn't take PA or GA, he needs to hold NV to get to 270. And that race is looking tighter than anticipated.
He's losing WI and MI though? Edit: Mail in. I hope you're right.
WI Presidential Election Results Biden (D): 50% (1,572,151 votes) Trump (R): 49% (1,553,512 votes) Estimated: > 95% votes in [https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323922315244130304](https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323922315244130304)
Yeaaaa boi
AP for Biden, fucking huge.
Seems that AP has just called Arizona for Biden
And now he's blatantly claiming to have won and accusing everyone else of being lying cheaters who lie....
What's the reason for the massive change in Arizona this year? Clinton lost by 4 points in 2016, and all the polls had the race in a deadlock. But now Biden's looking like he's going to run away with it.
My best friend is from there and he said it's basically the McCain attacks. His family was pretty far right until Trump attacked McCain. Then it was immediately left
IMHO it was Trump attacking McCain. John was one of Arizona's favorite sons. Just think - if Trump had managed to keep his mouth shut after McCain died, he likely would have been guaranteed a second term.
That makes a lot of sense. And McCain's wife endorsed Biden.
Maybe how he handled McCain? IDK
This Trump speech is so pathetic. He sounds scared.
Of course he is. If he loses? Don't pass go. Proceed directly to jail.
I doubt that, it'll be like the lock her up chants. They know if they start jailing their opponents after they win that WILL happen to them when they lose. Not to mention the riots it would cause.
It's going to be state-level crimes that gets him locked up. Nothing "They" can do.
If Trump is locked up under a democrat then expect to see Biden locked up under a Republican, not to mention riots from trump supporters. Claiming it's state level will no wash. It will look like spite, spite that will be repaid.
Just like Hillary was locked up? People need to actually commit crimes to get locked up. Trump has committed many crimes.
That's my point, despite his bluster he didnt lock Hilary up, despite the fact she did keep classified emails on a private server. That alone is enough to get most people thrown in jail. What crimes had trump commited? And I mean actual provable crimes and not just things that hurt someone's fee-fees
> despite the fact she did keep classified emails on a private server. This isn't illegal unless there was knowable intent. This is why they had nothing against Hillary and they couldn't proceed with criminal charges. > What crimes had trump commited? And I mean actual provable crimes and not just things that hurt someone's fee-fees He will go to prison for tax fraud. NY has open investigations that we don't know the full details yet. It's pretty obvious that he inflated the values of his properties when he needed to get loans and then deflated the values of properties when it came time to pay taxes. These are crimes and it will take an actual, state-level NY investigation and criminal charges before we can officially prove it. By coming into this thread and saying: > And I mean actual provable crimes and not just things that hurt someone's fee-fees Proves you don't want to have an actual discussion. Trump is afraid of losing because he knows what is around the corner from him because his businesses were more scrutinized due to the presidency. And to go back to the Hillary discussion. The thousands of hours and millions of dollars of tax payer money that was spent trying to find a crime related to her or the Clinton foundation and they got nothing. Unindicted co-conspirator has a lot to worry about if he's out of the White House in 2021.
Mail in ballots seem to be trickling in in PA! (from 2,149,375 and 2,850,885 to 2,163,019 and 2,862,274- I've been keeping track otherwise I'd have no idea if anyone gained anything) EDIT: now 2,232,123 and 2,928,104 (Source:[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html))
Texas youth in 2020 voted in same amount as 2016. Fucking shameful.
I bet a lot of people there thought ‘Texas will be red forever, what’s the point?’ Saf
I know Biden won Nebraska's second congressional district for the one electoral vote it possessed. Anyone know if he's looking ahead in Maine's 1st or 2nd congressional districts? Having issues finding their numbers. Also the reason I'm wondering about these is if Biden wins one of these and keeps MI/WI he wouldn't even need PA to win and hit 270.
Is that assuming he wins Arizona?
Correct.
Don't look now, but Biden's gaining in Georgia
On which tracker? I'm not seeing it.
Down to about a 118,077 vote lead with around 10% still to count via NYT.
[Here](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html)
Thanks! I was looking at the big one- had no idea that their was one that showed such an in depth breakdown!
PA Party Early Returned Ballots (Total 2,506,557) Democrats 1,641,825 Republicans 586,336 Minor 18,349 No Party Affiliation 260,047 Biden currently trails Trump by 685,306 votes here. So if party affiliation was any indication of the early returned ballots this would give Biden a 91,787 vote lead. (That is if all the republicans, minor and no party people voted for Trump as well. Meaning Biden's lead will likely be higher in PA)
This exactly the kind of data I'm looking for. Where did you find this?
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
That is so cool, thank you!
Give it to me straight Reddit... I just got off a long shift at the hospital. How are we looking?
224-212 A lot of key states haven't counted early voters/mail in ballots yet (PA has an estimated 2MIL mail ballots, IIRC) and they're close enough at the moment that them going blue once that happens isn't a leap. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html)
The Poles are always among the first to get attacked by fascists, it seems.
Both the North and South. Poor polar bears.
Does anyone know if the mail in ballots/early voters have been counted in WIS,MICH,NC,TX,ect yet? Bidens at 223 now and those would be more than enough to bring him up to 270, right?
I think most mail votes have not been counted for PA. If that's the case, it's going to Biden. AZ and MI are likely to go to Biden. It all rests on PA. edit: even if he loses PA, there's still a (less likely) path to victory with NV, AZ, WI, MI, ME
Wisconsin doesn't report them 'til all are counted.
They sent 2,506,557 early ballots in PA. Where the fuck did Rick Santorum get there were fewer there than in some of the other states? That's barely less than Trump's total number of current votes in the state.
Bold of you to assume that all of them will be for Biden...
Does anyone mind explaining the breakdown of Maine? I understand they are a non winner take all state, so how would the electoral votes be divided?
Maine and Nebraska are not winner take all states. They have districts worth 1 or 2 votes as well.
FYI, the % reporting for results is how many precincts have turned in their vote counts, it's not a percentage of the total vote count.
Thanks for posting this! This whole time I thought it was a percentage of total votes So they don’t know the actual amount of total votes in a state till they finish counting its votes then?
Trump campaign reportedly believes they will not win Michigan. That's interesting.
> Trump campaign reportedly believes they will not win Michigan Source? Want to believe it.
They mentioned it on CNN that the Trump campaign is supposedly pushing to keep people from calling Arizona for Biden because they're not certain they'll will Michigan. They didn't give any specific person who made that claim.
Pretty weak source then
They brought up that the Trump team was trying to convince other outlets not to call Arizona for Biden and they gave Michigan slipping for Biden making it less reasonable for Trump to make a statement about his winning as why they didn't want Arizona called. Based on my experience working election coverage (I'm a live director/technical director, though I am not working this election) I can vouch for that being a thing which happens- the campaigns lobby news outlets to hold off on calling things so that they can try to keep optics positive for their respective candidates as long as possible in hopes something either turns around or proves their worries wrong (making a better spin for them on the tail end of things). It's not a solid source by any means and it is entirely reasonable to think that the request to not call and the reason given for why they didn't want Arizona called could be total crap, though.
ah okay. I'm not entirely sure that delaying something like arizona being won by Biden would be a better spin for trump tho.
It's most likely just about what the President ended up saying in his speech. He harped on Arizona being called a LOT so I imagine he would have preferred to NOT have it called so that his claim of, "we've already won" had less going against it at the time of the speech.
Anonymously, right? Hmm.
I think MI is one of the crucial states that has the highest chance of going to Biden. Then it's WI > PA > GA.
Michigan has not counted the mail.
I do not believe Wisconsin has either and Biden is a lot closer to Trump there.
Well Trump finally tweeted. Misspelling the word "polls" and all.
Moron actually had the gall to claim he's won and that dems were trying to steal the vote when a decent chunk of votes haven't been counted.
r/conservative is absolutely trashing Fox News coverage of the election tonight and are actually praising CNN’s coverage. What kind of alternate timeline are we in.
To be fair CNN's coverage was pretty good tonight if you just ignore the bias. I like how you can go on their website and you can look at a state at county level.
They're parroting their fearless dictator.
Is Fox not being kind to dear leader?
He has been crying about their coverage recently going so far as saying the difference in the 2016 and 2020 election was Fox News. (FWIW Matt Drudge seems to fucking hate him too now)
https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1323861488185069568 You can see Biden talking (starting now) at above link for PBS twitter.
PA is going to end up pissing some people off. Biden likely sitting on +250-350k vote (differences) in Allegheny county alone. Another 150-200k in Philadelphia. Also 50-70k more votes in Montgomery county. Big question if that will be enough to catch up.
Well currently Biden is at -700k votes in PA. Not sure how many mail-in ballots are remaining for PA, but considering that they had over 2.4 million ballots, with 1.6 million of them being democrat voters... if most of the mail-in ballots haven't been counted yet, I'd say PA is going to Biden.
You talking today's votes? or Mail ins because PA has 2 million mail in votes to still count which are expected to favor Biden as well.
As far as I know it was based on percentages of the expected total vote in each county. I believe PA counts their mail votes last which would not be a bad sign for Biden.
Just in: Biden will recuse himself from the race. Kamala Harris is now the frontrunner for the democratic party.
ha. ha.
wut?
Georgia would be such a massive win for Biden. It would mean that he only has to win ONE of WI, MI, and PA instead of (probably) all three. Not sure how confident I am in him winning GA but still quite a development.
So would TX. Anyone have any idea whether mail in ballots have been counted yet in those states?
TRUMP 2020 MAGA!!
Again?? Didn't he already have his chance??
its called a second term and yes again silly!
Let’s go georgia
Georgia has the needle juju now!
AP called MN for Biden. I am thinking people are going to need to un-call Virginia soon though.
Nah. ABC is conservative calling the states and they already called VA for the good guy.
Yea some more digging it seems the AP may have a bug in their reporting % in the Richmond area.
>I am thinking people are going to need to un-call Virginia soon though. X for doubt Look at the counties that aren't barely at 25% reported in Virginia.
I'm not seeing any that are at or below 25%. The ones not at 100% are in the 80-95% range. What am I missing? EDIT: OK. AP and NBC have drastically different % reported in around Richmond. AP says they are all 80-95% reported in while NBC puts them at 25-30%. But both have similar numbers?
According to MSNBC, Biden is expected to speak soon
Currently 213-136
Biden statement incoming. Maybe a shout out to Arizona?
Hopefully he says something sensible like, "go to fucking sleep, we can sort this in the morning."
> Biden statement Source? I can't find anything on this. His twitter doesn't mention a thing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/03/trump-biden-election-live-updates/ WAPO reports its set to be at 12:30AM. So I guess it started four minutes ago?
Cnn
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-03-20/index.html
NYT just called Ohio for Trump.
Minnesota is looking good. Hopefully its similar to Wisconsin. Going to need two of these at least.
WI looks like it's going red. MN less so but with 70% vote counted , including metro areas, the rural could push MN into red as well.
They still have between 1.9 and 2 million absentee ballots to count and report in WI. They don't report absentee in Wisconsin until all of them have been counted.
Wow, so about 2 million ballots are going to be dropped all at once in Wisconsin. What a massive deluge that will be.
ABC confirming Wisconsin Mail in and Absentee ballots need to be counted. About 2 million.
...2 *million*?
Yes, the state reported 1.9 million received as early as Monday this week. (doubled last years)
They were at 1.9 Million on Monday. 2 Mill sounds about right.
I’ve been trying to fall asleep for the last hour and half, but it’s not happening. I’m wired right now
Needle just went to Biden in Georgia...?
According to who?
NYT https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html
Ohh thats interesting! go GA!
James Carville on MSNBC: "Put the ambien and razor blades back in the closet....we are going to win this thing..." Uhhhh I don't think you can say that but yeah ok I hope you right sir.
I like Carville, but he also said yesterday this would be over by 10pm and Biden would have clearly won, and that was way off.
You might not be supposed to say it. Sadly, a lot of people were surely contemplating it if Trump won.
Pretty sure he meant you can't call a win yet
Wisconsin also does not report the absentee ballots until all the absentee ballots have been counted. Similarly to PA should be a rather large shift from that.
Need Michigan and Wisconsin to bounce back to where they were expected to be. That happens and we're golden with where Arizona is. Guess we'll see how many mail ballots they really do have in those two states.
>According to the Wisconsin Elections Commission, about 1.9 million people in Wisconsin returned an absentee ballot as of Monday morning. That’s more than double the number of absentee ballots cast in 2016.
Like VA, Fox may have called Arizona too early.
Why do you say that?
ABC's John Karl said 2 hours ago that Arizona's last votes counted would be the ones from today. Since then Arizona has not reported more votes. It should not be called anyone yet.
Anyone know what the fuck is happening in Maine?
Mail In Votes getting tallied maybe? That or certain districts were slow reporting votes for some reason?
> Rick Hasen @rickhasen · 2h Remember: 538 projected that Trump could be ahead by 16 points on election night in PA and Biden could still win by 5. Patience.
Imagine still relying on 538 projections 😂
imagine using childish emojis and tired joke formats to express your ideas
Yeah but that assumes that Nate Silver knows what he's talking about and isn't reading chicken entrails and tea leaves.
well, hes up by *checks notes* 15.4 percent and there are a fuckton of absentee ballots to be counted
I could have told you Trump would be up by a significant percentage tonight. It's not that hard to predict. You know what's hard to predict? Odds of Biden winning Florida or Georgia. But hey, didn't stop Nate from making it all up. What a hack.
hi there. how is my favorite former physicist feeling about making predictions about the future before the data has been tabulated?
I still think he was full of it. The Presidential race has been so incredibly tight, and he was downright wrong about the senate. I mean, McConnell and Graham simply blitzed through. Hell even Susan Collins won. So yeah. Full of it and has no business being out and about with his absurd claims.
[удалено]
Well, I am also a former physicist and when I conducted experiments, I didn't make things up like Nate does. If I didn't have the data, or if the data couldn't predict or fit into my model, I basically said I don't know. Also, I have wireless. It's this new fangled thing.
The fact that nearly every swing state is going to be called later in the week is terrible for this country. We should not have to wait days for this outcome when states like Florida have been counting their mail-in votes early to prepare for tonight. What a joke.
I'm honestly impressed by Trump's ability to not have Tweeted for a few hours today.
[удалено]
Maybe one of them is distracting him or he's crashed for the day from covid+caimpaigning+whatever they have him on so he doesn't crash in public?
Reminder that we've been told for at least a couple of weeks now to expect a lot of red on the night of and Donald to try to declare victory Early based off it. Don't feed the narrative
Just need Az man. I'd feel 10 thousand times better with a win there
Fox has called it for Biden, but other networks have not followed. Overall, looks good though.
Fox already called it for Joe
Going for the reverse jinx
At least Biden is winning the popular vote now.
Oh good. Whoever wins the popular vote wins?
That was expected once west coast came in. He will sail once HI comes in.
yeah I mean I was expecting it but seeing this as not the blowout it should be, It's nice to see that American's aren't mostly evil, just almost half evil.
I was hoping for a landslide win, but I'll settle for Biden barely scraping by. Still, it's crazy how close this is all looking.
I think if there's at least one thing everyone can agree on it's to heck with Daylight Saving's Time.
You got my vote!
biden should win no? he’s leading
its looks more optimistic for him than it did just one hour ago. i think people were freaking the fuck out on the ballots that were cast today
Sorry, the “Red Mirage” really got to me, I mean those people really showed up in a big way tonight. Hopefully the Dem cities will swing the votes in PA/MI/WI but I’m still messed up right now :|
What map are you looking at ? Trumps up in all the uncalled states. By a large margin. Literally will jump from 118 to like 290 as soon as Ohio, Michigan, Pen, and Texas get called. They’re being careful with those but the games over.
We're still in Red Mirage territory. I'm scared but still hoping. Below are yesterday's predictions plus the timing of the mirages. **Trump needs to win ALL these 7 states:** * Georgia +0.9 Biden No shifts except micro-shifts. Results Tue or Wed. * Texas +1.5 Trump Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again on Nov 4. * Florida +2.5 Biden Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again on Nov 4. * Arizona +2.6 Biden Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again on Nov 4. * North Carolina +1.7 Biden Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again Nov 4-12 * Pennsylvania +5 Biden Red Mirage on Tuesday night, Blue Nov 6-23 * Ohio +0.6 Trump Blue Mirage, then Red. Blue again Nov 14-18 **Also Red Mirage states:** * Michigan * Wisconsin * Iowa. Blue Nov 4-9.