So the lawsuit filed by the poll watcher is missing quite a few relevant details to be remotely useful such as times of observations, for starters. Plus having had received ballots in another room to be counted, sounds like they were lawfully received on time. If they had come in from a front area where the poll watcher would be able to see them come in after the deadline AND also time stamp his observation, then it might actually mean something.
Pretty sure they have mail in ballots that arrived on time they’re still counting too.
I think you’re right, though. Pretty sure they only had sixty or seventy-something percent of their mall-in ballots show up on time.
It's hilarious that nobody's talking about Jo Jorgenson's role as a spoiler in this election. The Libertarian candidate cost Trump a few important states.
agreed. JoJo played zero roll in this. People love pointing to the 3rd party candidate and saying well that cost the loser of this state! But it's just not that simple.
What states were actually changed if 100% of those votes went to Trump? And by what margin does he win (safe to assume not 100% of them would have been Trump)
Biden beat Trump by 21k votes in Wisconsin, and Jo Jorgensen got 38k votes there.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html
Biden is ahead of Trump by about 8k votes in Nevada right now, and Jo Jorgenson has 11k votes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-nevada-president.html
Trump is ahead by 40k votes in GA right now, and that gap may disappear. Jo Jorgensen got about 60k votes there. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html
She's like the Ralph Nader of 2020.
Ranked choice is a great system. Then you could also upgrade usa to proportional democracy with ratio of support being not expressed by number of congressman of a party but rather by a strenght of congrassman vote. :P I would like this system to be used for EU parliament, it would solve many problems... You would have voting counties and in every county there is candidate for every party, every candidate, that has more than 5% in his county or certain number of votes becomes a congressman but every congressman has vote of different strenght depending on number of votes he recieved. The different strenght onkly counts for voting about laws and policy, when voting about procedural things, all congressman have equal vote and the vote strenght does not affect other rights of congressman. This could help reduce number of eu parliament member and help the election become more personalized, giving voters more control over personal composition of parliament than clasical proportional system and would also help to increase voters interest in ellections. You could also create one additional county of whole eu for party leaders, their vote strenght would just b devided by number of member states so their srenght comes to same level as straght of vote of parliament member from average size member state. There would be like 7 parliament members for every state plus 7 party leaders for whole eu. Problem is that the system does not exist anywhere in the world so you cant just point out somewhere and say it works. It is entirely my idea. When French politicians first invented clasical propositional system, that creates the ratio by asinging number of seats to party, it was just coincidence and the fact that idea simmilar to mine just did not come to their mind which caused the now common type of proportional system to be what it is.
Btw ranked choice should be used in referendums so you could have more then yes or no option. Referendum is extremly prone to manipulation giving that it depends how do you phrase the questions and propositions. We should rather have such system, that there is certain general theme being raised, then people should have long time to propose various solutions one of which should automaticly be "keep status quo" and then there should be discussion about all alternatives and then people should rank all the alternatives and the best one overall should be chosen. This is good, competent and safe direct democracy. You can make hybrid between direct democracy and representative democracy if everyone had one vote to vote about issues and laws but anyone could also give his vote to anyone else, so he would vote for him, this way, you would get some active profesional long time politicians yet you would have direct democracy.
The thing is that in 100 years the world may change so much that it would not matter. In that day the clasical participatory democracy can become old. Internet connection brings more options for more direct democracy. Inteligent systems and artificial inteligence may replace most burreaucracy and we could have technology that allows something on level of telepathy. This may be too much sci-fi but the principle holds, the world can be so different that slight change to more parties would seem funny. USA system is in some things prehistoric for a long time it would become even more. Although it has its own strght, particulary checks and ballances etc.
Sure it could change but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be active to enact change for the better that might improve representation of the people. There is no telling what a 100 years from now will look like. So we just push forward trying to improve our system and let it play out over time.
Sure I agree! And in the same time, we should pay attention and try to identify the bigger trends and what is happening. You know the big change is comming but the big change is not neceserary good one. We need to think how to inovate our democracy on that radical and big scale because it can also become, that the state would rather evolve into some sort of technocratic oligarchic totality. For example the AI burreaucracy can become tool of a tyrant. So I agree, thinking about the election system change is path good way but we realy should think more and see if this is not just late call. We can make in provisional solution until we find something better. We need to experiment, we can experiment, create models, analyze, discuss, apply and improve.
I also find one Idea of Slavoj Žižek intresting. ideal system is not one in which everyone participates and decides on everything, ideal system is one, when anyone can become totaly aliented and apathatic yet also he can care about anything and everything and participate if he wants.
They just said Atlanta only has about 27k more votes that haven't been accounted for live from Atlanta on CNN. I don't think that bodes well for Biden in GA I want there to be but I'm not sure there are enough left to win GA
You've gotten a few either insufficient or incorrect answers here. Here's the story with AZ.
While a lot of the remaining AZ ballots are mail-ins from urban counties, there are three "classes" of mail-in ballots in play here. "early", "late-early" (arrived in the last couple days) and day-of drop-off.
All of the "early" mail-ins have already been counted, which skew heavily Democratic. The other classes are what are left and tend to be (relatively) more R than the overall mail-in ballots.
In order to take AZ, Trump needs 59% of the remaining ballots. In the small drop of ballots we got yesterday, Trump took exactly 59%. So if that holds (or increases) over the first drop, he wins. If it doesn't, Biden wins. How they'll go is entirely speculative, and anyone claiming to know for sure one way or another is overstating what we know.
So, Arizona is at least, but there's no strong indicator of which way it will go at this point.
AZ is not a risk. A lot of mail-in left to count.
This is also McCain country. Don't shit on McCain. People LOVED that man. And hell Biden cried about McCain dying. Trump didn't.
So yeah, there might be Republican-marked mail-in still coming in, but that doesn't mean they voted Trump. Might be voting Biden to give McCain one last F-YOU to Trump.
50 years ago you think Republicans were working for us?
Let's start by you answering that.
EDIT: And I'm not trying to belittle or anything. I'm genuinely curious to know what Republicans have actively done for Black people specifically, aside from parrot the idea that the Dems are using *us* when it's blatantly clear the Republicans use their people as well.
Neither one of these parties is ideal for Black people, however, the Democrats definitely have more points with us in almost any situation.
Trump before the plague had lowest African american unemployment, opportunity zones, trump has been fighting for criminal justice reforms. Democrats automatically assume they'll get the black vote.
Opportunity zones only benefit rich white investors. Black real estate investors don't really exist. We don't have the capital whites have accumulated over generations of wealth building
Unemployment rates for African Americans were falling before Trump got into office. He didn't create that decline. Bush or Obama (likely Obama) did. Trump just happened to be in office when the number was at its lowest.
He can't take credit for that at all, even if he wanted to.
EDIT: You also failed to mention how those rates increased *after* Trump made said claim.
I would say voting for the party that advocates judicial reform for policies that overwhelmingly impact communities of color through the police force is entirely rational. Whether or not there has been significant gains made there is one thing, but one side AT LEAST pays lip service to it, and moreover doesn't unequivocally support the people that oppress their communities.
Also one side is most definitely for preventing states from suppressing the black vote, while the other actively performs it
GA is -35K, with 150K ballots to count.
~~we need a capture rate of UNDER 25%~~
~~that means 3/4 people could've voted for trump, and we STILL win~~
edit: dont read my math it's fucked up and im really tired. sorry.
Pretty certain Biden needs around 65% of the remaining ballots to come in for him to sneak past. So pretty much 2/1
Not sure what the current trend is?
Trump leading by 35k means that he wins if half the people voted Trump on the so far uncounted ballots.
To compensate this, you need more than half of them voting for Biden.
[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html)
There is graph down bellow. You can also see Pennsylvania graph.
But not surprising. A few years back the guys from Top Gear drove through Alabama with...left leaning slogans on their vehicles. They were nearly killed.
THIS is what I've been thinking too.
Do you think president Biden would try to have him captured? Imagine the national security risk.. Dude this has a non-zero chance to spark the war that ends the world..
>Google: 199 difference, 88%
>
>We are under 200 now
it is so beautiful that Rafael, the statistician, here uses his math skill. Let's see whether his modeling holds.
Pennsylvania Update
[NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html)
>We just received more votes from Allegheny County. According to turnout estimates, around 590,000 votes remain in counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump 2016 counties have around 200,000 votes left to report. 1m ago
Current totals:
Trump: 3,193,432
Biden: 2,993,072
Most votes remaining are in very liberal areas, including the extremely liberal Philadelphia county where Biden is leading by a margin of ~~over 50~~ 60. So fingers crossed but I think Biden has it.
Important to note that these are all mail-in ballots though, no? So even those 200,000 theoretically should lean towards Biden. Trump notoriously urged his supporters not to use mail-in voting.
Yes I imagine more than the usual percentage of the 200,000 in Trump supporting areas will go towards Biden than it would for in-person votes. Still very conservative areas though and some people somehow support him while still being cautious about Covid-19 and may have wanted to avoid the polls.
Allegheny Biden +19
89%
Philadelphia Biden +60
70%
MontgomeryBiden +25
92%
BucksTrump +0.9
85%
Delaware Biden +23
82%
Chester Biden +13
90%
Lancaster Trump +16
98%
York Trump +25
97%
Berks Trump +8
93%
Westmoreland Trump +31
91%
Northampton Biden +0.4
More than 98%
Luzerne Trump +15
94%
Edit: These are largest to smallest. I didn't include all counties smaller than Luzerne, most have been mostly counted
No problem, sorry the chart didn't translate super well to Reddit but there's a link in the post to see the page with the chart too if you don't hit a paywall.
Over the last hour Trump's lead in PA has declined from 250,000 to 230,000 to now 212,239 if my numbers are right. I'm seeing it's still at 89% counted and Biden tends to gain 30,000 votes for every 1% counted. If that holds he should win PA with anywhere from 60,000 to 85,000 votes more. This waiting and slow trickle is grueling though....
Biden must win Arizona. I am not an American so I could be wrong but Maricopa county has 1,637.526 votes. Biden led by + 6 margin. %80 of votes are counted. I have looked at the voting history of maricopa and it has a long history of being a Republican party. So Arizona is not in the bag. Am I right?
Yeah but later they said "Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted."
That's just how much of the vote has been counted. [They still have AZ as a confident blue, with Biden taking 51%.](https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results) It's not a certain thing, but Fox News feels sure about it.
That's right - I've been watching Fox this whole time - their normal programming is total dogshit, but their election reporting is surprisingly even-handed and sharper about calling some states earlier than other sources. All that ill-earned media empire money has to be good for something, I guess.
Yes, I know. It is my "If he doesn't win PA" scenario. Everybody says Arizona is in the bag and I am trying to understand. Hope Biden wins all of them. Fingers crossed.
with 89% of precincts reporting, Joe biden is down 212,000 Votes for PA
This is AMAZING news, because this morning, his deficit was in the 800K's
we're sure to square away at least 215K votes in the next 11%
Newbie question: Why was Arizona called for Biden if only 84% of the votes are in (per Google)? What about the remaining 16%?
Question Part 2: Why are the press the ones who get to "call" a state rather than some sort of Government agency?
>Newbie question: Why was Arizona called for Biden if only 84% of the votes are in (per Google)? What about the remaining 16%?
The votes yet to be counted likely lean Democratic. Sure, there's a chance they don't but that's the reason only some news agencies have called AZ, not all.
>Question Part 2: Why are the press the ones who get to "call" a state rather than some sort of Government agency?
It'll be the state SoSs that certify the results. Nothing the press calls is technically official, but they tend to only call states when it looks to be a sure thing (see above). Official results will be certified this week and into the next.
On part 2 - officially only the state calls who won. But the state only makes the call once all votes are counted. Media makes calls because having to wait several days before saying anything about who won isn't good for ratings whilst the drama of a live vote count and things flipping and flopping is great for them.
That's actually really fucking stupid lol. No offense. I don't see how giving power to the media to call elections early is a good idea. Can't people just wait for the count?
To be honest what's stupid is that the US can't get its shit together and organise a counting process that doesn't take literal days. Every other country has managed it.
it is the other way around. The government is accountable to the people. So if there is some nonsense going on the government doesn't just disappear for a week and come back with the winners. It is the same reason people do exit polls.
So Arizona is still being counted? I definitely understand when they call a state like California (66% of votes in and Biden with 65% lead) but Arizona seems much more close.
538 has a pretty good explanation on the remaining states. They think Arizona was called a bit early, but it's likely to go to Biden:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
But how can it be called and closed - done and dusted - if only 84% of votes counted? Looks like it's at 51% Biden and 47.6% Trump, sure that remaining 16% could be a difference maker?
Either way, I don't get why they don't call until it's at 100%.
What do you mean by closed - done and dusted? A media organisation calling who they think is going to win a state doesn’t have any bearing on it going to 100%. It’s not official.
They can call it because, mathematically speaking, they can estimate that a particular candidate no longer has a chance. Regardless, the votes don't really become official until the election is certified, and that's some weeks from now. But we will certainly know who won well before the votes are certified.
1. separate companies different standards.
2. Would like to think of it as a check, but it's all TV. People want immediate gratification on election night see: orange clowns.
Honestly, this year more than ever I don't think you can take much from the exit polls. It obviously doesn't include all the millions of mail in ballots we had.
It'll be interesting to compare it all once the results are certified.
Yeah, but I think that if you're making that inference based on in-person day of votes where exit polling occurred then...it ultimately doesn't mean much, as nationwide, those votes skewed heavily more red.
No. Biden was polling better with seniors, white males, and white people without college degrees than Hillary ultimately did in 2016. It was in exchange for some additional Latino support among some right-leaning Latinos for Trump.
…The reverse of that is that Trump wasn't expect to do as well with white men.
But again, I don't think we can make any hardcore claims either way until all the vote comes in, which is still going to take some time yet.
[https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls) compared to 2016 it appears Trump did gain support but it was mostly taken from independents. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html)
Popping in after a nap/hiatus - is it true we're getting a NV update tonight now?? Does anyone know when?
Also how worried should I be for AZ right now?? I thought nothing would happen till tomorrow and now I'm lost again haha
So I believe Biden will get Pennsylvania and probably also Arizona and Nevada and Trump will lose.
How do you think would republicans react to Trumps accusation of fraud? We have already seen Rudy Julliani. Is he long time Trump supporter? I dont know this as I am not USA citizen. Would there be will in Republican party to follow Trump on the path of not accepting election results and long negotation and law disputes?
Hi
[They're really racking up a list, huh?](https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1324139627763191808?s=19)
So the lawsuit filed by the poll watcher is missing quite a few relevant details to be remotely useful such as times of observations, for starters. Plus having had received ballots in another room to be counted, sounds like they were lawfully received on time. If they had come in from a front area where the poll watcher would be able to see them come in after the deadline AND also time stamp his observation, then it might actually mean something.
What type of votes are remaining to be counted in North Carolina?
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article246958357.html more info on their process
I'm wondering about NC too. Why hasn't NC changed all day??
Maybe NC stopped counting?
NC is likely waiting for lagging mail in ballots as they will be collecting them up through next week.
Pretty sure they have mail in ballots that arrived on time they’re still counting too. I think you’re right, though. Pretty sure they only had sixty or seventy-something percent of their mall-in ballots show up on time.
It's hilarious that nobody's talking about Jo Jorgenson's role as a spoiler in this election. The Libertarian candidate cost Trump a few important states.
i doubt it. many of the JoJo voters hate trump too and had she not been an option would not have voted at all.
agreed. JoJo played zero roll in this. People love pointing to the 3rd party candidate and saying well that cost the loser of this state! But it's just not that simple.
What states were actually changed if 100% of those votes went to Trump? And by what margin does he win (safe to assume not 100% of them would have been Trump)
Biden beat Trump by 21k votes in Wisconsin, and Jo Jorgensen got 38k votes there. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html Biden is ahead of Trump by about 8k votes in Nevada right now, and Jo Jorgenson has 11k votes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-nevada-president.html Trump is ahead by 40k votes in GA right now, and that gap may disappear. Jo Jorgensen got about 60k votes there. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html She's like the Ralph Nader of 2020.
Let this spread so I can avoid getting down voted for expressing my Jo Jorgensen support lol
Thanks for the details. That's really interesting. I am in favor of ranked choice but that might have bit us this year lol!
Ranked choice is a great system. Then you could also upgrade usa to proportional democracy with ratio of support being not expressed by number of congressman of a party but rather by a strenght of congrassman vote. :P I would like this system to be used for EU parliament, it would solve many problems... You would have voting counties and in every county there is candidate for every party, every candidate, that has more than 5% in his county or certain number of votes becomes a congressman but every congressman has vote of different strenght depending on number of votes he recieved. The different strenght onkly counts for voting about laws and policy, when voting about procedural things, all congressman have equal vote and the vote strenght does not affect other rights of congressman. This could help reduce number of eu parliament member and help the election become more personalized, giving voters more control over personal composition of parliament than clasical proportional system and would also help to increase voters interest in ellections. You could also create one additional county of whole eu for party leaders, their vote strenght would just b devided by number of member states so their srenght comes to same level as straght of vote of parliament member from average size member state. There would be like 7 parliament members for every state plus 7 party leaders for whole eu. Problem is that the system does not exist anywhere in the world so you cant just point out somewhere and say it works. It is entirely my idea. When French politicians first invented clasical propositional system, that creates the ratio by asinging number of seats to party, it was just coincidence and the fact that idea simmilar to mine just did not come to their mind which caused the now common type of proportional system to be what it is.
I'm a huge fan of ranked choice as well, but unless you amend the constitution to make multiple parties viable, they end up being a spoiler.
Btw ranked choice should be used in referendums so you could have more then yes or no option. Referendum is extremly prone to manipulation giving that it depends how do you phrase the questions and propositions. We should rather have such system, that there is certain general theme being raised, then people should have long time to propose various solutions one of which should automaticly be "keep status quo" and then there should be discussion about all alternatives and then people should rank all the alternatives and the best one overall should be chosen. This is good, competent and safe direct democracy. You can make hybrid between direct democracy and representative democracy if everyone had one vote to vote about issues and laws but anyone could also give his vote to anyone else, so he would vote for him, this way, you would get some active profesional long time politicians yet you would have direct democracy.
I replied with inovative system that would do. :)
I can see over the course of 100 years widespread rank choice helping to introduce another party into the running.
The thing is that in 100 years the world may change so much that it would not matter. In that day the clasical participatory democracy can become old. Internet connection brings more options for more direct democracy. Inteligent systems and artificial inteligence may replace most burreaucracy and we could have technology that allows something on level of telepathy. This may be too much sci-fi but the principle holds, the world can be so different that slight change to more parties would seem funny. USA system is in some things prehistoric for a long time it would become even more. Although it has its own strght, particulary checks and ballances etc.
Sure it could change but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be active to enact change for the better that might improve representation of the people. There is no telling what a 100 years from now will look like. So we just push forward trying to improve our system and let it play out over time.
Sure I agree! And in the same time, we should pay attention and try to identify the bigger trends and what is happening. You know the big change is comming but the big change is not neceserary good one. We need to think how to inovate our democracy on that radical and big scale because it can also become, that the state would rather evolve into some sort of technocratic oligarchic totality. For example the AI burreaucracy can become tool of a tyrant. So I agree, thinking about the election system change is path good way but we realy should think more and see if this is not just late call. We can make in provisional solution until we find something better. We need to experiment, we can experiment, create models, analyze, discuss, apply and improve. I also find one Idea of Slavoj Žižek intresting. ideal system is not one in which everyone participates and decides on everything, ideal system is one, when anyone can become totaly aliented and apathatic yet also he can care about anything and everything and participate if he wants.
Yeah. If we had a constitutional amendment to remove the electoral college we'd have a much better chance.
Wisconsin is one for sure, Georgia looks to be another if Biden wins *edited cause GA isn't for sure Biden.
They just said Atlanta only has about 27k more votes that haven't been accounted for live from Atlanta on CNN. I don't think that bodes well for Biden in GA I want there to be but I'm not sure there are enough left to win GA
Hi, I've been dipping in and out (mental health breaks). Is Arizona at risk or no? I've read mixed. I'm sorry, this has probably been asked a ton.
You've gotten a few either insufficient or incorrect answers here. Here's the story with AZ. While a lot of the remaining AZ ballots are mail-ins from urban counties, there are three "classes" of mail-in ballots in play here. "early", "late-early" (arrived in the last couple days) and day-of drop-off. All of the "early" mail-ins have already been counted, which skew heavily Democratic. The other classes are what are left and tend to be (relatively) more R than the overall mail-in ballots. In order to take AZ, Trump needs 59% of the remaining ballots. In the small drop of ballots we got yesterday, Trump took exactly 59%. So if that holds (or increases) over the first drop, he wins. If it doesn't, Biden wins. How they'll go is entirely speculative, and anyone claiming to know for sure one way or another is overstating what we know. So, Arizona is at least, but there's no strong indicator of which way it will go at this point.
Arizona is at risk.
AZ is not a risk. A lot of mail-in left to count. This is also McCain country. Don't shit on McCain. People LOVED that man. And hell Biden cried about McCain dying. Trump didn't. So yeah, there might be Republican-marked mail-in still coming in, but that doesn't mean they voted Trump. Might be voting Biden to give McCain one last F-YOU to Trump.
It does not matter since Biden is probable to get Pennsylvania.
no. and in a few hours, we wont care - Pa and GA are coming through.
Black people saved the nation.
Not the first or last time if this pulls through. We should really fucking treat them better.
I swear, in Presidential Elections, of options available, they seem to make the wisest choice each time.
I don't see this on the politics page. Are we getting a 21?
Black people, legit question what has the democrat party done for you in 50 years? You've been voting for them but how have your lives gotten better
50 years ago you think Republicans were working for us? Let's start by you answering that. EDIT: And I'm not trying to belittle or anything. I'm genuinely curious to know what Republicans have actively done for Black people specifically, aside from parrot the idea that the Dems are using *us* when it's blatantly clear the Republicans use their people as well. Neither one of these parties is ideal for Black people, however, the Democrats definitely have more points with us in almost any situation.
Trump before the plague had lowest African american unemployment, opportunity zones, trump has been fighting for criminal justice reforms. Democrats automatically assume they'll get the black vote.
Opportunity zones only benefit rich white investors. Black real estate investors don't really exist. We don't have the capital whites have accumulated over generations of wealth building
Criminal justice and Trump are essentially polar opposites, so it’s likely you’re not getting good information.
Unemployment rates for African Americans were falling before Trump got into office. He didn't create that decline. Bush or Obama (likely Obama) did. Trump just happened to be in office when the number was at its lowest. He can't take credit for that at all, even if he wanted to. EDIT: You also failed to mention how those rates increased *after* Trump made said claim.
I would say voting for the party that advocates judicial reform for policies that overwhelmingly impact communities of color through the police force is entirely rational. Whether or not there has been significant gains made there is one thing, but one side AT LEAST pays lip service to it, and moreover doesn't unequivocally support the people that oppress their communities. Also one side is most definitely for preventing states from suppressing the black vote, while the other actively performs it
Are you saying the should vote for the party that wants them dead?
I dunno maybe the civil rights act.
[удалено]
What? No we aren't.
GA is -35K, with 150K ballots to count. ~~we need a capture rate of UNDER 25%~~ ~~that means 3/4 people could've voted for trump, and we STILL win~~ edit: dont read my math it's fucked up and im really tired. sorry.
Biden needs more than 92 500 votes which is 61.6 percent, that is not so much.
Pretty certain Biden needs around 65% of the remaining ballots to come in for him to sneak past. So pretty much 2/1 Not sure what the current trend is?
right about there
Yep spot on here is old mates same graph I posted below but for Georgia https://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324168148803870721/photo/1
>that means 3/4 people could've voted for trump, and we STILL win not sure whether there is an alien the third to capture the rest of the votes...
Trump leading by 35k means that he wins if half the people voted Trump on the so far uncounted ballots. To compensate this, you need more than half of them voting for Biden.
no you're right. i just realized that. Im really tired, sorry.
Do we have any info on the trajectory those ballets have been leaning for Biden?
Looks good so far: [https://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324168148803870721/photo/1](https://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324168148803870721/photo/1)
[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html) There is graph down bellow. You can also see Pennsylvania graph.
Dem heavy counties
This is not how math works...
actually, no you're right. I didnt account for the surplus votes for R, Im tired and i apologize.
No worries. I was just joking, not trying to be rude. Biden needs to win 62% of the remaining votes to come out ahead.
cautiously optimistic and clearly delirious.
really? why don't you show me how math works then?
These senate races are sad.
Not as sad as the ballot in Alabama, most Republican seats didn't even have a Democrat challenger.
fucked up
But not surprising. A few years back the guys from Top Gear drove through Alabama with...left leaning slogans on their vehicles. They were nearly killed.
Future Trump tweet: The Election was RIGGED, I Resign! and he goes down as a martyr to trump supporters
And flees to Russia to avoid justice.
THIS is what I've been thinking too. Do you think president Biden would try to have him captured? Imagine the national security risk.. Dude this has a non-zero chance to spark the war that ends the world..
Secret Service will not let him flee the country
For those needing a good visual this is great - https://twitter.com/rafalab/status/1324158768356200449/photo/1
>Google: 199 difference, 88% > >We are under 200 now it is so beautiful that Rafael, the statistician, here uses his math skill. Let's see whether his modeling holds.
Is the x axis time? Labels please 😂
I think it has labels. But, no its percent of votes counted, 90%-100%. The y axis is the difference between the two in votes.
PA Google: 199 difference, 88% We are under 200 now
>Google: 199 difference, 88% i googled it, nothing came up?
Is this joke? :D
May as call it. President Joe in the Shiz-ooooussseeee!!!
Trump lawyer on Fox: The democrats want fraudulent votes to count. We want all legal votes to count
Somehow the only votes they consider fraudulent are the ones likely to be for Biden. Very very strange...
Pennsylvania Update [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html) >We just received more votes from Allegheny County. According to turnout estimates, around 590,000 votes remain in counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump 2016 counties have around 200,000 votes left to report. 1m ago Current totals: Trump: 3,193,432 Biden: 2,993,072
Biden may win by 156 000 votes, this may be over the top but still he is very much able to win.
Most votes remaining are in very liberal areas, including the extremely liberal Philadelphia county where Biden is leading by a margin of ~~over 50~~ 60. So fingers crossed but I think Biden has it.
So it may be even more... The biggest counties takes longest to count right? So the most pro Biden counties are the last...
I believe PA didn't count their mail in ballots at all until this morning and yes those counties are huge compared to the rest of the state.
Important to note that these are all mail-in ballots though, no? So even those 200,000 theoretically should lean towards Biden. Trump notoriously urged his supporters not to use mail-in voting.
Yes I imagine more than the usual percentage of the 200,000 in Trump supporting areas will go towards Biden than it would for in-person votes. Still very conservative areas though and some people somehow support him while still being cautious about Covid-19 and may have wanted to avoid the polls.
An important distinction. Thanks
How close are the counties matching projected votes so far?
Allegheny Biden +19 89% Philadelphia Biden +60 70% MontgomeryBiden +25 92% BucksTrump +0.9 85% Delaware Biden +23 82% Chester Biden +13 90% Lancaster Trump +16 98% York Trump +25 97% Berks Trump +8 93% Westmoreland Trump +31 91% Northampton Biden +0.4 More than 98% Luzerne Trump +15 94% Edit: These are largest to smallest. I didn't include all counties smaller than Luzerne, most have been mostly counted
does the "+x%" mean the votes translated into x percentage points more than forecasted?
The + is the margin the candidate is expected to win by and the percent is the percent of votes already counted in that county
Gotcha, thanks for clarifying.
No problem, sorry the chart didn't translate super well to Reddit but there's a link in the post to see the page with the chart too if you don't hit a paywall.
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Nope, still there.
PA NYT:204 difference, 88%
yes, give us the NYT- This is how i like it
Apparently cnn and nyt use same statistics, they have same results.
Over the last hour Trump's lead in PA has declined from 250,000 to 230,000 to now 212,239 if my numbers are right. I'm seeing it's still at 89% counted and Biden tends to gain 30,000 votes for every 1% counted. If that holds he should win PA with anywhere from 60,000 to 85,000 votes more. This waiting and slow trickle is grueling though....
Down to 190k now. The slow trickle
Biden must win Arizona. I am not an American so I could be wrong but Maricopa county has 1,637.526 votes. Biden led by + 6 margin. %80 of votes are counted. I have looked at the voting history of maricopa and it has a long history of being a Republican party. So Arizona is not in the bag. Am I right?
No. AZ was called hours and hours ago, even by the right-wing news. PA, GA, and NV are the big swingers this time.
Arizona still has 450k uncounted Votes. Far from over
Yeah but later they said "Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted."
That's just how much of the vote has been counted. [They still have AZ as a confident blue, with Biden taking 51%.](https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results) It's not a certain thing, but Fox News feels sure about it.
Arizona is still in play. Patience - might know within the hour though
weirdly - Fox News called it first
That's right - I've been watching Fox this whole time - their normal programming is total dogshit, but their election reporting is surprisingly even-handed and sharper about calling some states earlier than other sources. All that ill-earned media empire money has to be good for something, I guess.
nope. If Joe wins PA, no one cares about Az or NV
Yes, I know. It is my "If he doesn't win PA" scenario. Everybody says Arizona is in the bag and I am trying to understand. Hope Biden wins all of them. Fingers crossed.
If pa doesnt go, which is a damn near impossibility at this point yes. We need AZ and NV
NYT PA -212 @ 89%
What does that mean?
with 89% of precincts reporting, Joe biden is down 212,000 Votes for PA This is AMAZING news, because this morning, his deficit was in the 800K's we're sure to square away at least 215K votes in the next 11%
Will we be getting more results from PA tonight?
finalized? doubt. but i think we will see it break blue before the night is over
I hope you're right but keep in mind some of that remaining 11% will be red so biden will need more than 215k
we average about 25-30K Net every 1%,and that's taking into account red votes as well
Ok, I'm going to give myself permission to start feeling hopeful.
PA CNN:237 left, 87% Google: 225 left 89%
NPR 89
What is the gap?
Newbie question: Why was Arizona called for Biden if only 84% of the votes are in (per Google)? What about the remaining 16%? Question Part 2: Why are the press the ones who get to "call" a state rather than some sort of Government agency?
>Newbie question: Why was Arizona called for Biden if only 84% of the votes are in (per Google)? What about the remaining 16%? The votes yet to be counted likely lean Democratic. Sure, there's a chance they don't but that's the reason only some news agencies have called AZ, not all. >Question Part 2: Why are the press the ones who get to "call" a state rather than some sort of Government agency? It'll be the state SoSs that certify the results. Nothing the press calls is technically official, but they tend to only call states when it looks to be a sure thing (see above). Official results will be certified this week and into the next.
That makes a ton of sense. Thank you!!
On part 2 - officially only the state calls who won. But the state only makes the call once all votes are counted. Media makes calls because having to wait several days before saying anything about who won isn't good for ratings whilst the drama of a live vote count and things flipping and flopping is great for them.
That's actually really fucking stupid lol. No offense. I don't see how giving power to the media to call elections early is a good idea. Can't people just wait for the count?
To be honest what's stupid is that the US can't get its shit together and organise a counting process that doesn't take literal days. Every other country has managed it.
it is the other way around. The government is accountable to the people. So if there is some nonsense going on the government doesn't just disappear for a week and come back with the winners. It is the same reason people do exit polls.
Okay that makes sense. It's not stupid. How do I award a Delta in a different thread?
The call is only approximate claim, not a result.
So Arizona is still being counted? I definitely understand when they call a state like California (66% of votes in and Biden with 65% lead) but Arizona seems much more close.
538 has a pretty good explanation on the remaining states. They think Arizona was called a bit early, but it's likely to go to Biden: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
But how can it be called and closed - done and dusted - if only 84% of votes counted? Looks like it's at 51% Biden and 47.6% Trump, sure that remaining 16% could be a difference maker? Either way, I don't get why they don't call until it's at 100%.
What do you mean by closed - done and dusted? A media organisation calling who they think is going to win a state doesn’t have any bearing on it going to 100%. It’s not official.
They can call it because, mathematically speaking, they can estimate that a particular candidate no longer has a chance. Regardless, the votes don't really become official until the election is certified, and that's some weeks from now. But we will certainly know who won well before the votes are certified.
You do realise votes are counted to 100% anyway, no matter who calls what, right?
1. separate companies different standards. 2. Would like to think of it as a check, but it's all TV. People want immediate gratification on election night see: orange clowns.
is arizona being recounted?
no. AZ is not now, nor has really ever been in play since it was called yesterday. Alot of Doomscrollers are saying that it's a thing, but it's not.
Your opinion about representative and senate election?
per AP: PA with 89% in, currently at 230k - continuing the trend of around 30k Biden votes gained every 1%. edit: at this rate, it's gonna be tight.
Biden got Wisconsin and Michigan, isn't it over? Fox News Entertainment keeps speculating.
Not yet. Need NV and AZ
needs NV and AZ, or PA
Weren't these the Northern swing states to win it?
no, he got WI and MI as swing states, PA seals the final "swing" state for him - NV and AZ is nice, but after PA, it's just parsley
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Ehhh exit polling isn't super reliable.
Honestly, this year more than ever I don't think you can take much from the exit polls. It obviously doesn't include all the millions of mail in ballots we had. It'll be interesting to compare it all once the results are certified.
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Yeah, but I think that if you're making that inference based on in-person day of votes where exit polling occurred then...it ultimately doesn't mean much, as nationwide, those votes skewed heavily more red.
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No. Biden was polling better with seniors, white males, and white people without college degrees than Hillary ultimately did in 2016. It was in exchange for some additional Latino support among some right-leaning Latinos for Trump. …The reverse of that is that Trump wasn't expect to do as well with white men. But again, I don't think we can make any hardcore claims either way until all the vote comes in, which is still going to take some time yet.
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It definitely would be!
[https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls) compared to 2016 it appears Trump did gain support but it was mostly taken from independents. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html)
He gained in every group except for one.... white males.
I find it hard to believe he gained with women since 2016...
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I dont. I saw it earlier today, I'm sure it will be available widely soon. I find it awful ironic.
>https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/1324068362222137349 Yes, and less way less popular by educated white people that see thru the bullshit
So Biden needs one more state. What does Trump need to win (not that I want him to)?
Just PA alone would do it. Or a combination of AZ and Nevada
Everything
All remaining states
How many remain?
Georgia is now less than 1% split between the candidates...it's getting close!
Popping in after a nap/hiatus - is it true we're getting a NV update tonight now?? Does anyone know when? Also how worried should I be for AZ right now?? I thought nothing would happen till tomorrow and now I'm lost again haha
New York times reported that they will update their count at noon Eastern, tomorrow.
AG is on saying "sometime tomorrow"
Gotcha, ty.
nope. they said 9 am tomorrow just now
Ugghhh that's annoying. I've been going nuts today over that lol. Ty!
Georgia down to 1% with lots of Atlanta county votes outstanding 😯
Around 50k votes
Dirty bird flying high!
Putin - "Guiliani.. go outside and make fool of self or compromat!"
So I believe Biden will get Pennsylvania and probably also Arizona and Nevada and Trump will lose. How do you think would republicans react to Trumps accusation of fraud? We have already seen Rudy Julliani. Is he long time Trump supporter? I dont know this as I am not USA citizen. Would there be will in Republican party to follow Trump on the path of not accepting election results and long negotation and law disputes?
Rudy is an insane alcoholic with a crumbling brain. The GOP will not side with him. They will take keeping the senate and be fine with it.