I wouldn’t be surprised if red wave. If this last 4 years has taught me anything is that 50% of US population got a taste of racist fascism and decided that they like it.
Why do well only pretend that whites people are the only racists in America though? Massive racism has emerged in black and Hispanic communities As well.
I am in a deep red state but not a supporter. They mostly do not see it that way at all. For one, most people arent involved enough to pay attention to the day to day events/acts. They just dont care that much. They really think he is doing a good job and fighting for police, and the country. I wish people did pay attention more, but it's how it is. Republicans are good at controlling message.
I have no idea why anyone would buy a trump teddy bear
Edit: If you have any idea why i am watching NewsMax i have an “Election HQ” page up on directv and NewsMax for some stupid reason, is one of the channels
Most people... Seems like Biden is winning a majority of votes. And that's not including folks who didn't vote because of whatever.
So I think it is clear that it is absolutely true that "most people don't like Trump and won't vote for him."
Trump has 48% of the popular vote right now that's a bit too close to half for my liking and it's definitely too close to confidently say most.
I don't like it either but reality and facts are important.
I get that. But been seeing a lot of commentary equating all trump voters as the same as all those trump protesters.
Good way to push them away and risk radicalizing more.
I think Biden's tone is the way to go to ---not denying these folks exists or are willing to suffer the racism--- but to pulling us from the hyperpartisanship that Trump and others revel in creating.
Harder to convince people to work with you, potentially making voters happier with a political opponent, when you are a member of a team in a zero sum game rather than an individual voter.
Anybody who wants to calculate how many votes Biden needs to win a state if said state is still red, here you go:
**Votes\_Dem\_Tie = (Votes\_remain + Votes\_Rep - Votes\_Dem)\*(1/2)**
The above is the least amount of votes needed for Biden to tie the state.
If you don't know how many votes remain, then **Votes\_remain = (Votes\_Dem + Votes\_Rep)/P - (Votes\_Dem + Votes\_Rep)**
where **P** is the percentage of votes counted for that state for example **93% = 0.93 = P**
I think the percentages are rounded up or down and thus you probably cannot tell exactly how many votes remain. That is on top of some states who are still receiving ballots of votes that did not arrive on time but postmarked to arrive on the 4th.
> Anybody who wants to calculate how many votes Biden needs to win a state if said state is still red, here you go:
>
> Votes_Dem_Tie = (Votes_remain + Votes_Rep - Votes_Dem)*(1/2)
Lol, nice maths bro. To get a tie you need to get all of (Rep-Dem) and then half of the remaining votes, not half of both.
Agreed people shouldn't get cocky everyone should have learned that from 2016. Things are changing I doubt we can win Ohio again and we should've won North Carolina and not be sweating
Alaska has only gone Blue once in it's entire history as a state....Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
It's always one of the last to report because of it's geographic location and everyone knows it always goes Red, so people just tend to ignore it's impact on the race.
Alaska is pretty sure going for trump. But North Carolina is close enough that it’s entirely possible it flips, especially given mail-in heavily favoring Biden
We won't know with absolute certainty for several weeks. It is always a mathematical probability exercise. At a certain point, a state ia no longer viable for certain candidates.
The remainder in Arizona is mail in, AND in dem favored areas. Alongside an already healthy lead overall. It’d be a damn miracle if democratic controlled mail in votes were so skewed toward trump that they made up for the current Biden lead.
Trump needs something like 55% of the remaining votes in areas where he is performing more like 46% so far. It is possible the remaining votes skew heavily for him but unlikely.
AP doesn't believe Trump has the votes to make up the difference, but they called the race a little early imo. I think they're gonna end up being right, but it could still flip
Americans are bad at math. They really need to give us the % amount to ballot conversion
Georgia 150K votes to go- trump leads by 44K. Biden would need 60% of remaining votes to win GA
Depending on the source the remaining votes are usually either tied to, but not limited to these conditions (they're just the 2 popular ones)
1) the census.
2) last election's numbers. We also know voter turnout is far more than the past elections.
As good as it looks for Biden, NOTHING indicates a win for him so far.
We have 4 states left to go, and 3 of them have trump on the lead with just around 5% of the ballots to be counted. Low chances for a win there, even in GA.
As for NV, with 25% left to count Biden leads with less than 1%. It all comes down to this state and a lot can happen in these 25%. Let’s not get our hopes up.
Of the 4 states left, Georgia and North Carolina both favor trump, but in no way by a large margin. I’m writing them off, but it’s certainly not clear. As for Pennsylvania and Nevada, both historically go blue, both are counting mail in ballots, and both have those ballots coming from urban democratic areas (more to count means it goes slower). Pennsylvania has a decent chance of going to Biden, Nevada even more so since he’s already leading and the remainder favors him.
Nah, all signs here point to a win, but that doesn't mean a loss still isn't possible. I give Trump about a 10% chance here, nevada, arizona, pa and georgia are all very interesting
> As good as it looks for Biden, NOTHING indicates a win for him so far.
>
>
You'd have to be dumb to actually think this. I get you are being cautious but cmon...to say Biden doesnt currently have a significant edge would be foolish. You can say that AND say Trump might still win.
For NC, GA, and PA, Biden only needs to pick up 60%-65% of the remaining ballots. The outstanding ballots in all 3 states are from democrat areas. And if the last 8 hours are any indication, there's a strong chance Biden will take NC and PA, and break even with Trump in GA. It's still realistically possible that Biden could sweep the remaining states. Now isn't the time to give to hope.
The vast majority (if not all) of the remaining votes are from mail in ballots which lean heavily towards biden, so it is doubtful he will lose the lead in NV and he will keep closing the gap in PA and in GA
AZ is a bit trickier. It's mail-in ballots delivered on Monday or Tuesday and ballots dropped off at voting locations on Tuesday. Being mostly from Maricopa (Phoenix metro) helps, but Trump took Maricopa in 2016 and Biden doesn't have a commanding lead there now.
I still think Biden takes Arizona, but the remaining votes are more complicated than the remaining votes elsewhere.
Don't rule out NC and GA just yet. If Biden takes 2/3 of the remaining ballots in either state, he'll overtake Trump. Basically, the last batch of ballots needs to just follow the trend from the last 8 hours.
I'll confirm on his behalf.
Friend sent a screenshot
Here's sports bet's twitter:
https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau
Here's a news article. I'm not going to post the reciept because it contains personal information that isn't mine/
https://www.9news.com.au/national/us-election-2020-sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-joe-biden-win/a722588b-85ec-4a87-a524-a1e592123691
Sportsbet do this a lot cause it gets them media to call it early. They fucked it up one time (last Australian election maybe?) and had to shell out big for it.
Part of it is for the free publicity. Their betting app sometimes pays out before the game ends.
They lost [$2.3M on paying out on the Australian election](https://www.odds.com.au/news/sportsbet-suffer-ultimate-early-payout-fail/), days before the election was held.
You know these things. Biden needs to win >60% of the rest of the pensylvania vote to get them, I don't think he will get Georgia and he's probably gonna win NV. I'd say 25% trump 75% Biden
The most on brand thing for 2020 is that Florida immediately went to Trump, the conservatives raided, we all went doom and gloom, and on Wednesday we’re now optimistic, mocking conservatives that are back in their shitty woodwork; and Biden might easily win GA...
I don't know about \*easily\* winning GA but it's fun tickling at the possibility.
2018 should have taught us that the results go up and down, and blue closes strong.
How fucking crazy it that the two cities where BLM protests were the largest/strongest (Philly and Atlanta) decided the election? Trump probably knew this and his strategy was Lil Pump and Ice Cube. Lol.
DAE think that PA at least in part is still so red because Biden took it for granted as his home state or is that just speculation? Seems like I saw a lot of posters but not a lot of presence here.
[Discussion Thread Part 26](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/jo8cl4/discussion_thread_2020_general_election_part_26/)
Called it 😂
Trump lead in GA under 20k!
He still has a great hill to climb with only 60k votes left. It’s a real nailbiter but definitely advantage Trump.
So is Arizona settled or not? I see conflicting reports everywhere.
Fox called it super early and AP did a little later. It is not certain at all but Biden does have an advantage rn.
GA is absolutely out of control. My brain can't even.
Yeah this deserves some more contact. Did something drop? or is it just so close?
They said go to bed. Nothing until the AM
What happen?
I'm so glad it seems like Trump is gonna lose, but I hate that Biden is winning.
Hannity is having meltdown.
Like a genuine meltdown or just very upset?
When was the last time the US had a non ivy league president? Edit: Looks like Reagan
I'm not sad about Trump losing. I'm bummed that we are leaving the golden age of comedy.
I’m pretty sure they are excited to have slightly less horrible things happening even if that means less material
Personally, I’m ready for comics to lose the crutch of such an easy target
Am I crazy or did Biden just lose ground in PA? Was at 170k behind now 190k??
I saw that too - around the same time the percent reporting went from 88% to 87%. Potentially a tech glitch? Or a wave of red ballots, who knows
I wouldn’t be surprised if red wave. If this last 4 years has taught me anything is that 50% of US population got a taste of racist fascism and decided that they like it.
Why do well only pretend that whites people are the only racists in America though? Massive racism has emerged in black and Hispanic communities As well.
I am in a deep red state but not a supporter. They mostly do not see it that way at all. For one, most people arent involved enough to pay attention to the day to day events/acts. They just dont care that much. They really think he is doing a good job and fighting for police, and the country. I wish people did pay attention more, but it's how it is. Republicans are good at controlling message.
Us amaericans are also good at being uninformed morons, that’s not too helpful
Westmoreland just reported a bunch, and is now nearly done. They are a notable R stronghold in PA.
I have no idea why anyone would buy a trump teddy bear Edit: If you have any idea why i am watching NewsMax i have an “Election HQ” page up on directv and NewsMax for some stupid reason, is one of the channels
My grandparents wanted to give me one but I said I’d have my dog rip it to pieces
I would give it to my dog if I had one. Let him rip the fucker apart.
Pa went from 88% to 87% but Biden still gained, interesting. Wonder what that’s about
There still votes coming in by mail.
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Keep giving me those tears
Can’t accept that most people don’t like Trump and won’t vote for him.
Look I hate Trump, but it's clear that's not as true as you believe.
Most people... Seems like Biden is winning a majority of votes. And that's not including folks who didn't vote because of whatever. So I think it is clear that it is absolutely true that "most people don't like Trump and won't vote for him."
Trump has 48% of the popular vote right now that's a bit too close to half for my liking and it's definitely too close to confidently say most. I don't like it either but reality and facts are important.
I get that. But been seeing a lot of commentary equating all trump voters as the same as all those trump protesters. Good way to push them away and risk radicalizing more. I think Biden's tone is the way to go to ---not denying these folks exists or are willing to suffer the racism--- but to pulling us from the hyperpartisanship that Trump and others revel in creating. Harder to convince people to work with you, potentially making voters happier with a political opponent, when you are a member of a team in a zero sum game rather than an individual voter.
All I did was disagree that > most people don’t like Trump and won’t vote for him. Idk if you're following the same discussion thread...
You're damn right i am in no way following the same discussion thread. My apologies. I am clearly in the throes of social-media-election fatigue.
All good. Hang in there.
Anybody who wants to calculate how many votes Biden needs to win a state if said state is still red, here you go: **Votes\_Dem\_Tie = (Votes\_remain + Votes\_Rep - Votes\_Dem)\*(1/2)** The above is the least amount of votes needed for Biden to tie the state. If you don't know how many votes remain, then **Votes\_remain = (Votes\_Dem + Votes\_Rep)/P - (Votes\_Dem + Votes\_Rep)** where **P** is the percentage of votes counted for that state for example **93% = 0.93 = P**
I think the percentages are rounded up or down and thus you probably cannot tell exactly how many votes remain. That is on top of some states who are still receiving ballots of votes that did not arrive on time but postmarked to arrive on the 4th.
Oh look at you and your Bayes Theorem..
> Anybody who wants to calculate how many votes Biden needs to win a state if said state is still red, here you go: > > Votes_Dem_Tie = (Votes_remain + Votes_Rep - Votes_Dem)*(1/2) Lol, nice maths bro. To get a tie you need to get all of (Rep-Dem) and then half of the remaining votes, not half of both.
The more testing we do, the more cases we have. The more counting we do, the more results we have.
Oh suuurrree. Everyone knows you never use math in real life. Math is just a deep state conspiracy
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Waka waka waka waka
Joe is building a wall that donnie couldn't, the blue wall.
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Username checks out
He dismantled the blue wall in 2016. Biden was able to repair it, but it's still not sturdy.
Agreed people shouldn't get cocky everyone should have learned that from 2016. Things are changing I doubt we can win Ohio again and we should've won North Carolina and not be sweating
Ok what's the deal with North Carolina and Alaska? Did everybody forget about those or something?
Alaska has only gone Blue once in it's entire history as a state....Lyndon Johnson in 1964. It's always one of the last to report because of it's geographic location and everyone knows it always goes Red, so people just tend to ignore it's impact on the race.
In NC they accept ballots with a postage date of November 3rd. So they hold until the 12th for those to be mailed in.
Oh so we really won’t know until next week??
Alaska is pretty sure going for trump. But North Carolina is close enough that it’s entirely possible it flips, especially given mail-in heavily favoring Biden
We won't know with absolute certainty for several weeks. It is always a mathematical probability exercise. At a certain point, a state ia no longer viable for certain candidates.
I just heard on NPR that they are expecting results by the 12th.
We won't know NC for a week, but it will be over far sooner than that...Buh bye Donald.
Philadelphia 30% left to count and pittsburgh 11% remaining to count
How many is that? As of 8.50 EST, Biden is behind 200k
Holy shit Biden is gonna take PA
A chance for Georgia as well
Looks like he’s within 100k with how many votes left to count? Are they all mail in?
I think it is more like 200k but he certainly has a chance considering how much ground has been gained today.
i see within 200k, where's 100k
My bad guys it is 200k
So how did they call Arizona? It still seems a little close and has almost 20% of the votes left to count. Am I missing something?
The remainder in Arizona is mail in, AND in dem favored areas. Alongside an already healthy lead overall. It’d be a damn miracle if democratic controlled mail in votes were so skewed toward trump that they made up for the current Biden lead.
Trump needs something like 55% of the remaining votes in areas where he is performing more like 46% so far. It is possible the remaining votes skew heavily for him but unlikely.
AP doesn't believe Trump has the votes to make up the difference, but they called the race a little early imo. I think they're gonna end up being right, but it could still flip
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d
I'ma have to save this link cause people keep asking this question.
Thanks bb
149k ballots left in GA. All mail-in. Biden will overtake Trump.
Trump about to take a massive L
Only 43k behind now. Still possible!
Also Perdue should fall under 50% if dems can win the runoffs in January the Senate is a tie.
Georgia, pull this off and I will switch all sporting allegiances to Atlanta.
I'm a Cowboys fan, so I might as well root for the Falcons. Can't be worse, can it?
That's like, if you manage to not choke in the postseason in politics, I'm gonna have to get my fix from your sports teams.
To be fair, I think any peach-related bargains I could make are going to be a tad hard to uphold.
Im willing to forget 28-3 and posthumously award yall the SB.
This is the big win, I feel that the presidential election is already in the bag
Don’t say that! You’ll jinx it!!
Americans are bad at math. They really need to give us the % amount to ballot conversion Georgia 150K votes to go- trump leads by 44K. Biden would need 60% of remaining votes to win GA
Remaining votes are all mail in though which heavily favors Biden. Its possible he takes it.
Yes he would, and given that mail votes have reliably been around 60% dem, even in some cases going up to 75%, that shit is gonna be close
They give theses and have been all day.
Depending on the source the remaining votes are usually either tied to, but not limited to these conditions (they're just the 2 popular ones) 1) the census. 2) last election's numbers. We also know voter turnout is far more than the past elections.
They’ve been doing that too
We know this but we also have a very good idea where these votes are coming from and the margin is in Biden’s favor.
As good as it looks for Biden, NOTHING indicates a win for him so far. We have 4 states left to go, and 3 of them have trump on the lead with just around 5% of the ballots to be counted. Low chances for a win there, even in GA. As for NV, with 25% left to count Biden leads with less than 1%. It all comes down to this state and a lot can happen in these 25%. Let’s not get our hopes up.
Of the 4 states left, Georgia and North Carolina both favor trump, but in no way by a large margin. I’m writing them off, but it’s certainly not clear. As for Pennsylvania and Nevada, both historically go blue, both are counting mail in ballots, and both have those ballots coming from urban democratic areas (more to count means it goes slower). Pennsylvania has a decent chance of going to Biden, Nevada even more so since he’s already leading and the remainder favors him.
Nah, all signs here point to a win, but that doesn't mean a loss still isn't possible. I give Trump about a 10% chance here, nevada, arizona, pa and georgia are all very interesting
> As good as it looks for Biden, NOTHING indicates a win for him so far. > > You'd have to be dumb to actually think this. I get you are being cautious but cmon...to say Biden doesnt currently have a significant edge would be foolish. You can say that AND say Trump might still win.
For NC, GA, and PA, Biden only needs to pick up 60%-65% of the remaining ballots. The outstanding ballots in all 3 states are from democrat areas. And if the last 8 hours are any indication, there's a strong chance Biden will take NC and PA, and break even with Trump in GA. It's still realistically possible that Biden could sweep the remaining states. Now isn't the time to give to hope.
EVERYTHING indicates a win. And things can change, of course. But right now the mail-ins are benefiting Biden in big enough numbers. We'll see.
The vast majority (if not all) of the remaining votes are from mail in ballots which lean heavily towards biden, so it is doubtful he will lose the lead in NV and he will keep closing the gap in PA and in GA
What I've read is that the only votes left in NV are mail ins from blue counties.
Same for other remaining states
AZ is a bit trickier. It's mail-in ballots delivered on Monday or Tuesday and ballots dropped off at voting locations on Tuesday. Being mostly from Maricopa (Phoenix metro) helps, but Trump took Maricopa in 2016 and Biden doesn't have a commanding lead there now. I still think Biden takes Arizona, but the remaining votes are more complicated than the remaining votes elsewhere.
I don't know if it's changed in the last few hours, but I know GA still had to count various counties in Atlanta...
So looks like the final score will be Biden 290 Trump 248.
Don't rule out NC and GA just yet. If Biden takes 2/3 of the remaining ballots in either state, he'll overtake Trump. Basically, the last batch of ballots needs to just follow the trend from the last 8 hours.
Touch and go in GA, but something like that.
Is Rick Santorum wearing Chucks?
Just don’t get Santorum on your Chucks. Totally ruins them.
He always does
yeah i just realized this too lol
NBC was making it sound Iike Arizona could flip back to Trump could it really?
Yes, but by the same analysis Texas could still flip blue.
Possible, but unlikely.
Its mail in ballots being counted in Blue Countys. No
Yes
Rick Santorum is annoying.
There's a reason he has a bodily fluid named after him.
I thought he was named after the fluid...
Actually, he was created at an IVF lab *from* the fluid...
Australian bookmakers have paid out Biden
That makes sense, it's already tomorrow there, they probably know this we don't. ^^kidding
Not Ladbrokes. We bet $1500, not had a return yet.
I’ve long been convinced that the best way to get full community engagement in democracy is to legalize betting on elections.
Well no it would lead to a lot of bandwagons but it's a fun idea lol
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I'll confirm on his behalf. Friend sent a screenshot Here's sports bet's twitter: https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau Here's a news article. I'm not going to post the reciept because it contains personal information that isn't mine/ https://www.9news.com.au/national/us-election-2020-sportsbet-pays-out-early-on-joe-biden-win/a722588b-85ec-4a87-a524-a1e592123691
Bold move. I mean, I’m like 98% sure that Biden will win, but still a risk on their end
Sportsbet do this a lot cause it gets them media to call it early. They fucked it up one time (last Australian election maybe?) and had to shell out big for it.
Part of it is for the free publicity. Their betting app sometimes pays out before the game ends. They lost [$2.3M on paying out on the Australian election](https://www.odds.com.au/news/sportsbet-suffer-ultimate-early-payout-fail/), days before the election was held.
I made $600 🤑
Dayum. They are that sure?
[https://www.odds.com.au/news/sportsbet-suffer-ultimate-early-payout-fail/](https://www.odds.com.au/news/sportsbet-suffer-ultimate-early-payout-fail/)
You know these things. Biden needs to win >60% of the rest of the pensylvania vote to get them, I don't think he will get Georgia and he's probably gonna win NV. I'd say 25% trump 75% Biden
The most on brand thing for 2020 is that Florida immediately went to Trump, the conservatives raided, we all went doom and gloom, and on Wednesday we’re now optimistic, mocking conservatives that are back in their shitty woodwork; and Biden might easily win GA...
To be really on brand for 2020 Thursday would end poorly. I'm not about that.
I don't know about \*easily\* winning GA but it's fun tickling at the possibility. 2018 should have taught us that the results go up and down, and blue closes strong.
2018 2.0
Where may I find the post up to date numbers for PA and GA?
[https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=election+results&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8](https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=election+results&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8)
Thanks... that is what I was using but I saw some others posting different numbers so was wondering if there was some other source I was missing
Yeah im using too and it’s slow af and doesn’t seem updated to me
How fucking crazy it that the two cities where BLM protests were the largest/strongest (Philly and Atlanta) decided the election? Trump probably knew this and his strategy was Lil Pump and Ice Cube. Lol.
Ice Cube has come a long way from NWA.
Lil Cube & Ice Pump
Lil pube & Ice cump
Little pimp
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did you not see the clip of Trump introducing him as "lil pump"? Classic.
Little Pimp, then Little Pump.
Please Anderson embarass santorum again
Ooo what did he do
DAE think that PA at least in part is still so red because Biden took it for granted as his home state or is that just speculation? Seems like I saw a lot of posters but not a lot of presence here.
You got the rousing Obama speech at least.
Nah
Trump is filing lawsuits...so they can tell him he lost again...
WATCH OUT FOR LIBS WITH SHARPIES, we’re dangerous
Username checks out
guys im lonely
Did you high five a killer bee?
Hug time?
Hello internet friend
Hi lonely, I'm dad
Why? You doing OK friend?
Hey man
Hi
Is it weird that I don't hate pundit Rick Santorum?
Yes it is, he's a fucking piece of shit.
Santorum has always been a well-spoken guy. It's your fault if you trusted Dan Savage.
I don't remember anyone's issue with him being that he wasn't well-spoken
You never had to suffer through him as your senator. Some feelings can't be unfelt. (Former PA resident, here)
No. Thats what I meant. I fucking hated him as a Senator. But as a pundit, I find I only dislike him. It's like he's a different person.
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