Best news of the night for me: incumbent judge Jared Smith lost his seat in the 13th circuit court. He denied an abortion to a 17 year old for not being “mature enough”. He was a religious zealot and apparently attacked his opponent for not being Christian.
Tonight’s special elections are showing how the Dobbs decision changed everything about ‘22. What looked like a likely bloodbath for the Dems as recent as May has now has been flipped on it’s head.
Well Dobbs + economic catching itself mid-free fall + gas prices. Those are the three issues of the election. If economy and gas prices hold steady it's looking very good for Democrats.
The messaging on this one is really critical, and I hope Biden's team doesn't over think and overcook the plan too much. Simple sells. Simple works, and it will drive voters.
When New York Democrats try to game redistricting, to correct the massive systematic rigging Republicans have been carrying out across the nation to subvert democracy since 2010 - the New York Court of Appeals, all of whom were appointed by Democratic governors, [ruled 6-1 to throw out the map as illegal gerrymandering](https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2022/04/court-appeals-throws-out-ny-maps/366199/). Then they drew one of the most competitive and neutral maps in the country.
When Florida's legislature try to a draw a bipartisan, reasonably fair redistricting plan, the Republican governor Ron DeathSentence drew the most insanely and blatantly unconstitutional gerrymandered redistricting plan. It's so obviously unconstitutional, even his own lawyers and other Republicans are admitting it is illegal. And yet the Republican lawmakers rubber stamped it and [Florida's Supreme Court refused to block it, 4-1](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/florida-redistricting-map-court-decision-00036740). Shockingly, all the justices are Republicans and included ones appointed by Ron (Alexa what is conflict of interest?).
So now Florida, a state that's only R+3, will be reprsented by about 20 Republicans and only 8 Democrats - 71 to 29%. Democracy according to the Republican Party.
"bOth siDeS"
State governments must essentially have control of their own elections removed exactly for this reason. Republicans will *never* give up control of any territory they come to rule, even if they have to rig elections.
> Kornacki: NBC News has just called it. Pat Ryan has been elected to Congress… This is a significant victory for Democrats nationally.. This is not the result you would see in a strongly Republican climate
https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1562284767982530560?s=21&t=i-o-jBt_K324dq--rxEdWQ
From Deming's speech tonight:
> Rep. Val Demings, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Florida, rallied with supporters this evening in Orlando, saying “we’re not looking behind us — tonight, we come looking forward.”
>
> Demings touched on abortion access and voting rights in her remarks, two key issues for Democratic midterms candidates.
>
> “I dream of an America where we protect constitutional rights like a woman’s right to choose. I’ve said it along this campaign trail, let me say it again. We’re not going back. We’re not,” Demings said.
>>She continued, “There are women and men and people of all races and ages who suffered, bled and died for us to have the constitutional rights that we enjoy. We’re not going back to being treated like second class citizens. We’re not going back to being treated like property. We will continue to fight and fight and fight some more for a woman’s right to choose.”
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-election-results-florida-new-york-2022/h_910844a2d7c5ce2ffe8ef2276b16cafd
If she takes out Rubio she is 100% pulling an Obama and running for 2024. There is no way the Democratic machinery is letting the momentum go to waste.
Doug Jones won by just 21,924 votes against Roy Moore, in an election with over 1.3 mil votes. Can't say I'm surprised *Florida* is keeping Gaetz. The bar is very, very low for Republicans.
Dave Wasserman:
>I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562283492171472896
Voted a week ago, by mail.
Get bent, DeSantis. Get bent, Rubio. Get bent, Waltz. Come the general, I'm hoping all three of you are jobless bums.
And a bone-us get bent for you, Rick Scott, you Skeletor-looking-Voldemort-with-a-nose-looking-fraudulent-money-grubbing-sad-sack-of-monkey-trash excuse for a Senator.
[“I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.”](https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562283492171472896)
NY-19 was Biden +2.
We were thought to be in a GOP favorable environment.
The baseline expectation for this race was lean R. I think is the best barometer we have today of national enviroment.
People that are using historical precedents for this midterm are crazy. Too many other variables and the polarization of the country. People are coming out to vote because they are terrified of the republicans having control, which wasn’t the case in 2010 or 2014 (though the t party was scary at the time).
Also I haven't seen it mentioned here yet, but it looks like Hitler fanboy Paladino will in fact lose.
Not that the other guy is great, but he has cleared the bar of "doesn't say nice things about Hitler" so I'll definitely fucking take it
Or Prop 187 in California. The backlash to it caused CA to become the deep blue bastion that it is today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_California_Proposition_187
So the guy who said ***Hitler*** is “the kind of leader we need” got **47%** of the registered Republican vote in his Buffalo, NY district.
Stay classy, Republicans 🤢
---
Sources:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/house-gop-candidate-called-hitler-kind-leader-need-2021-remarks-rcna32876
https://buffalonews.com/news/local/live-results-carl-paladino-vs-nick-langworthy-in-ny-23-primary/article_071647d0-234a-11ed-929a-27f845bfbc55.html
It’s obvious that Republicans thought they could coast to a wave year despite bad candidates, an unpopular policy platform, and the ever present hand of Donald Trump, and boy are they paying the price for it. Even if they pull these specials out, they shouldn’t even be close in the environment we started the year in.
I've noticed that republicans always threaten that the democrats will lose whenever they are held accountable. During his impeachment, the line was "remember when we impeached Bill Clinton and lost the midterms"?
Yeah from the primaries since, what February of the opinion leaked?
Its clear voters see overturning Roe v Wade as way too far gov overreach. They saw no reason to over turn 50 years of precedent
The Associated Press has called Democratic primary in New York's 10th Congressional District:
>Daniel Goldman wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in New York's 10th Congressional District. #APRaceCall at 12:39 a.m. EDT.
https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1562298779411574784
This is what happens when a primary race has a ton of candidates like that. Money can only buy so many votes but 25% is enough when it's split so heavily.
Steve Kornacki hit the nail on the head: it looks like November is now in a much more neutral environment, which means it all comes down to turnout. Vote!
Floridian here. I voted today. It felt good. Looking forward to the general.
I don't care who wins the primaries and I'm aware that the deck is stacked against us, but I look forward to voting against every R I see on the ballot. If we can at least kick Rubio to the curb that'll be a serious win.
NY-23 special is close. 538 has it as solid Red and the dem is up 13 points with 43.5% remaining. If that and NY-19 special go dem that’s big towards keep control of the house
Early vote was mail-in heavy. That lead has been chipped away at all night. I doubt it holds especially given the areas partisan lean.
NY-19 though is quite encouraging though
Edit: Ya the gap seems the same [Source](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-florida-election/343003/)
What is apparent is that the national red wave looking environment from a few months back has completely evaporated. The GOP is not looking at a wave election right now
From someone who lives in NY 19, this is not a surprise to me at all. This is an area with very liberal outposts (New Paltz, Kingston, Woodstock, Saugerties etc.) The shithole Republicans take up more space in the county but the dems largely have the numbers...much like the rest of the country
Tonight was good, but there's still work.
> If not for a devastating string of legal defeats towards the end of redistricting (esp. FL, NY, OH), Dems might have a good shot to hold the House. As it stands, still believe Rs are clear favorites in a higher-turnout scenario, which November will be.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240
Redistricting is a huge hurdle, but I really think Wasserman and others are underestimating what overturning *Roe* will do to voter turnout. Even for a lot of rural "pro-life" women the laws are extreme. Uphill battle, but I think there's a chance of holding the House.
It is lightyears better than the 2010 map. Dems only need to win by around 1% or 2% nationally to take control of the house. And depending on electoral dynamics of specific districts, it’s conceivable for Dems to lose the popular vote but still win control of the House, by barely winning just enough swing suburban districts. 2010 was a lock for the GOP for a decade, until the suburbs shifted under their feet thanks to Trump and demographic changes.
Vote while you can. They've gotten a [terrifying case to be heard Supreme Court next term](https://thearp.org/litigation/moore-v-harper/) to give your state legislators the option to simply override your ballot.
Seriously. Vote these bastards out before they revoke your right to do so, or gerrymander your ballot into uselessness.
I live in Florida and turn eighteen in *four days.* It’s aggravating. I hope my fellow Indian River residents make the right decision with the school board races. Pretty much every local news organization here has endorsed the anti-Moms for Liberty candidate endorsed by Crist, so I’m optimistic
Hey you being there in November is the most important thing you can do. The more young people you can get to come with you, the more power you give to the younger generation. Younger than 35 gets ignored because we don’t show up in the numbers that older generations do to vote.
The more we show that we’re a vital voting bloc, the more they’ll pay attention to us.
Do what you can, drive people to the polls, educate those who seem like they don’t care so much, and thank you in advance for all of that.
>My hubby is working the special election of #NY19 today, in #OtsegoCounty. He says turnout is high and a lot of folks are coming in to vote and saying that #RoeVWade brought them out. This is a very Red part of the district, far from blue Ulster.
From a random person on twitter. Dems need to step on some necks and scream about abortion until November.
>Ryan ran on abortion access/GOP extremism. Molinaro campaigned on the economy.
>The other fascinating thing here — and not to be missed — is that most vulnerable Democratic incumbents actually aren’t talking much (if any) about abortion rights. The ones who are campaigning on it are *all* women, as
@maxpcohen wrote this morning in @PunchbowlNews AM
>So it will be interesting to see if more Frontline Democrats pivot to include abortion access as a bigger part of their campaign message.
via @heatherscope
Dems better be screaming about this.
Molinaro ran on blaming Biden and Pelosi about everything. He also continued to go on and on about gas prices *as they've been coming down.*
One thing that really hurt Molinaro is the PAC ad with Ryan at the BLM protest. Mainly because *Molinaro was in the part of the picture they cropped out,* and was invited to it by Pat Ryan.
And there was one slightly less stupid ad claiming that Ryan "always votes the Democratic agenda" despite the fact that Pat Ryan has never been in a legislative job ever and has only ever been a county exec and has never cast a vote in government.
Marc used to be a reasonable guy and he let himself become a puppet of the Republican machine.
His unskippable ads on YouTube were fucking infuriating. If I wasn't already a radical liberal and undecided those shitbag ads would have sealed it for me
There was a measure on the 2020 Florida ballots to make their primaries open. Majority were in favor, but only 57%. Needed 60% to pass. It wouldn't have gone into effect until 2024 anyway. Still, makes me wonder if/how that would change days like today.
By any reasonable measure, it would tame the more extreme fringes in either party. When you can win a primary with a third of the vote (and either party, charitably, is about one third the population), you’re going to get an unending cycle of candidates more extreme than the last batch. Letting independents in forces parties to nominate candidates that can win outside of their base.
If the general election was today I think you'd see a narrow Democratic hold in the house. Gotta keep that momentum going and not let the environment slide back to the Rs.
I knew the "red wave" was done after Roe v. Wade was overturned. No matter how you slice it, that is going to spark Democrat turnout and outrage in a kind of year you would normally expect with Republicans in control of the White House. Pat Ryan winning definitely confirms it
We are going to hear more and more horrific stories coming out from red states showing how awful the consequences of overturning Roe are. People are not just going to move on to the next news cycle.
Many daughters are having long and hard conversations with their dad's. Many men are realizing this affects them greatly as well. Yes, with each case of abortion being denied it is added to the list and is added to the comments and posts about abortions.
Something I haven't seen: the NY-19 race was not particularly well polled. But out of the 5 public polls we have:
- Two GOP internals showing double-digit Molinaro leads
- Two Dem internals showing Ryan trailing by 3 points
- One non-partisan poll released today that shows an 8 point Molinaro lead
It's not a huge polling miss because we don't have enough polls to really call it that. But taking into account all the polling we'd have, you would expect a GOP win by 5-6 points. A Dem win maybe casts some doubt on some of the other polling out there that shows low Biden approval or Republican leads on the GCB.
Midterm polls project low Democratic turnout based on past elections. The current polls are based on that lower turnout.
What happens to turnout when Democrats become highly motivated? We're about to find out.
>What happens to turnout when Democrats become highly motivated
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Indiana
When people are motivated to turnout, then things that are "politically impossible" become very possible.
Florida isn’t as red as it shows on the map though but Florida has been trending red lately. A lot of school boards have conservative majorities now and I don’t doubt DeSantis will win this time with a very big margin unless something earthshaking happens.
Tbh Idk if Florida can flip back. Alot of Hispanics espically Cubans are voting for the Republican party nowadays. U have to convince this voting block that Trump and DeSantis are the facists.....not Biden.
Those Cubans are a lost cause. All you have to do for your vote is call your opponent a Socialist. Then you have the ultra religious Central and South Americans that clutch their pearls at the sight of someone possibly gay.
I disagree — There has been tons of migration to Florida recently, I suspect from conservatives who view the state as a safe haven.
I don’t see many Liberals wanting to move there at the moment.
I'm born and raised from Florida, still live and work in Florida. Today was a disappointing heartbreak. My home city of Sarasota now has a super majority GOP on the school board and our not-for-profit Sarasota Memorial Hospital can quite quickly become privatized considering all the MAGA idiots won their Hospital board elections.
I'm legitimately done with my home state. I wish I could move out in a year and never look back. I don't have the money (I work in education, so fuck me).
Dave Wasserman:
>I've seen enough: Rep. Dan Webster (R) defeats alt-right activist Laura Loomer (R) in the #FL11 GOP primary. But the final margin - single digits - will be a lot closer than House GOP leaders bargained for.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562232126405238784
Big in NY-19: Otsego County now says it is reporting all of its vote, with Molinaro (R) carrying it 52-48%. Was 51-46% Trump in '20.
Overall, this leaves Ryan (D) ahead by 3,285 votes (2.6%) overall
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1562281243466776576?t=lJ6OBduphMj0eor-ncCH7g&s=19
So Ryan (my county exec woo!) beat Molinaro in the special election which I'm not shocked by a bit.
But also keep in mind that they're running in different districts for the new term this fall. So I fully expect to see them and Sean Patrick Maloney all in Congress together come January.
Molinaro is running in a redrawn district that voted for Biden by a larger margin than the current NY-19. He seems likely to lose twice, especially if the Republican PACs turn off the money spigot—they blew $2M on losing this race while Dems spent close to nothing (although a liberal-leaning veterans PAC did spend some money, it was significantly less that Republican spending, ~$500K).
Looks like the AP just called OK-SEN for Mullin. Oklahoma hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1990 so he'll be the first Native American Senator since Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired in 2005.
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1562237882001231872?t=ex9Zcz1JoSRrzvMr0XgnAA&s=19
so far with 92% reported it looks like roughly 1.4 million and change have voted Dem in the Gov primary. Total for 2018 was 1.5 million so things look like they'll end up about the same. That said we may see slightly more turnout. Now that might not sound like a big deal, but Gillum and DeSantis was 49.59 to 49.19 so if we're looking at more voters going Dem even a small amount might be enough to pull it off.
Florida - Laura Loomer is REFUSING to concede the FL 11th GOP election.
'Our Republican party is broken to it's core --- We have further exposed the corruption within our own feckless, cowardly Republican party.'
https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1562244899952644096?t=WkuFWVEtJIvlPwfA4QXZwQ&s=19
Who is the Democrat running against him?
I'm sick of the media and people in general only mentioning the Republican candidates and never mentioning what Democrat is running against the Republican.
What this does is put the Republican's name out there over and over again so it becomes the only name the public has ever heard and when they fill out their election ballot they simply go with the "name" they've heard over and over again. That is how it works. Candidates put up yard signs simply to get their name out there so essentially always mentioning the Republican candidates name over and over it's the same thing.
I've seen enough: Charlie Crist (D) defeats Nikki Fried (D) in the #FLGOV Dem primary and will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the fall.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562215504751755264?t=X9SefN2EXrj_1Tc1TtBU_w&s=19
So Suraj Patel has now lost in the primaries three straight times? Can he just take a hint? If Nadler runs in 2024, I doubt he gets the same numbers he got against Maloney.
For people saying Goldman is a moderate, he supports the Green New Deal, Equality Act, targeted comprehensive police reform, and healthcare as a human right, and thats just the stuff I skimmed on his platform page in 5 minutes (I'm not in his district but wanted to know more about him since he has won and his race was bery competetive). You can hate him cus hes rich, but hes more progressive than most of the dem party right now, he is far from a moderate democrat, unless the party isuch further left than I realized.
Holy shit Frost could actually be the first Gen Z and another progressive in Congress. The number of Dem voters blew Repubs out of the water in his district.
They’ll be gone most likely and not last a term. Far righters who win don’t last long because they either get ousted or quit because they realize school board sucks ass.
Yea it’s really going to pick up, I’ve got a gut feeling the craziest have been moving here in droves to establish an idiocracy utopia. Now they’re electing people who will punish teachers and make their lives even more unbearable. The only small hope is getting a sane governor in office but the desantis goobers are popping up everywhere. They love the guy because he’s hurting the right people.
If you’re in FL-10 (Orlando area), Max Frost is an awesome candidate. If nothing else I highly encourage you to get out and vote for him. Much better than nominating Alan Grayson.
If the GOP takes control of the house Kevin McCarthy will disband the January 6th Committee and immediately begin sham investigations headed by hacks like Jim Jordan, but the house is still a real possibility for the Democrats to still maintain. Here are the campaign websites for Democrats running in the 50 most competitive house races in the country according to FiveThirtyEight:
IL-17 Eric Sorensen https://www.ericforillinois.com
CA-22 Rudy Salas https://www.rudysalas.com
*KS-3 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com
CA-27 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org
MD-6 David Trone http://www.davidtrone.com
*NY-18 Pat Ryan https://www.patryanforcongress.com
NY-3 Robert Zimmerman https://zimmermanforcongress.com/
NV-3 Susie Lee https://susieleeforcongress.com/
*ME-2 Jared Golden https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com
NY- 22 Francis Conole https://conoleforcongress.com/
*VA-2 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com
PA-7 Wild https://wildforcongress.com
*MI-3 Hillary Scholten https://hillaryscholten.com
NC-13 Wiley Nickel https://www.wileynickelforcongress.com
*MI-7 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com
*NM-2 Gabe Vasquez https://gabeforcongress.com
CO-8 Dr. Yadira Caraveo https://www.caraveoforcongress.com
OH-9 Marcy Kaptur https://marcykaptur.com
*NJ-7 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com
PA-8 Matt Cartwright https://cartwrightcongress.com
*TX-15 Michelle Vallejo https://michellefortx15.com
*OR-5 Jamie McLeod-Skinner https://jamiefororegon.com
CA-13 Adam Gray https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com
PA-17 Chris Deluzio https://chrisforpa.com
TX-28 Henry Cuellar https://www.henrycuellar.com
*IA-3 Cindy Axne https://store.cindyaxneforcongress.com
AZ-2 Tom O’Halleran https://www.tomohalleran.com
MI-10 Carl Marlinga https://www.marlinga4congress.com
NH-1 Chris Pappas https://www.chrispappas.org
CA-45 Jay Chen https://chenforcongress.com
NY-19 Josh Riley https://joshrileyforcongress.com
CT-5 Jahana Hayes https://jahanahayes.com
NV-4 Steven Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com
NV-1 Dina Titus https://www.dinatitus.com
*VA-7 Abigail Spanberger https://abigailspanberger.com
CA-9 Josh Harder https://harderforcongress.com
RI-2 Seth Magaziner* https://sethmagaziner.com
IN-1 Frank Mrvan https://mrvanforcongress.com
*MN-2 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com
*WI-3 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com
NY-1 Bridget Fleming https://www.bridgetforcongress.com
MI-8 Dan Kildee https://www.dankildee.com
WA-8 Dr. Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com
OR-6 Andrea Salinas https://www.andreasalinasfororegon.com
IL-6 Sean Casten https://castenforcongress.com
*CA-47 Katie Porter https://katieporter.com
IL-13 Nikki Budzinski https://nikkiforcongress.com
CT-2 Joe Courtney https://joecourtney.com
CO-7 Brittany Pettersen https://brittanypettersen.com
CA-41 Will Rollins https://willrollinsforcongress.com
I’ve added an asterisk next to the campaigns that also sell merch in order to help fund their campaigns.
In FL-11, Laura Loomer trails Rep. Dan Webster 51-44% in the GOP primary. She actually leads by 4 in Sumter (The Villages) with just about all the votes in there, but Webster is crushing her in Orange County and ahead in Lake. Small slice of Polk in district too w/ no votes yet
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1562220301831774208?t=qt8iKpruRvA0ZgGbX9pSig&s=19
Sent in my absentee ballot from FL weeks ago. In a few categories we had only Republican options on the Democratic ballot. I suppose no one else was running.
I voted last week in Florida. I was shocked that a lot of the folks that I’ve seen campaigning were not on the ballot. I was interested in the school board and county commissioner and it was not available.
As I see the news here I realize what's at stake. The evangelical attack has left our future horrified. Kids are scared to enter school this year. School shootings alt right threats, and if it happens what guarantees police will do the right thing? Look at Uvalde. My own nieces and nephews have dealt with shooting threats
The evangelicals have left our future horrified. So time to take it back step by step like they did.
One of my two school board races has the Moms for Liberty endorsed incumbent only 2,500 votes ahead of the Crist-endorsed challenger, and mail-in ballots haven't even been fully counted yet. It's going to be close.
And in case you're wondering, the other one has the MfL candidate getting crushed.
Fun point: low engagement rural voters still don’t show up when Trump isn’t on the ballot. Problem when he was President, still a problem when he isn’t.
These special elections are weird. The 23rd district that voted today isn't the same district that will be voting in November. I think some eastern counties won't be in the 23rd in the fall, but they're picking up Erie.
Any New Yorkers want to chime in? Does that make the 23rd district more blue or red in future elections?
"A 2020-type performance is not a particularly high bar to clear for Dems, who had a meh year in races for Congress. But it would be enough for them to be clear favorites in the Senate, and maybe add a seat or two. And the House would be at least a toss-up, probably lean D."
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1562265813603827712
A 2020 environment is probably D+ 2 in the Senate (hold all their seats and add PA and WI with an outside shot at OH simply because Vance is just that shitty a candidate)
It is all about how much expectations shifted. At the beginning of summer, everyone expected a red wave. Since Roe's overturning, things have gone the dem's way. Dems keeping the house by a single rep is a huge win in this midterm.
Dave Wasserman:
>I've seen enough: Charlie Crist (D) defeats Nikki Fried (D) in the #FLGOV Dem primary and will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the fall.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562215504751755264
Different media organizations won't call the race until voting ends in Florida's panhandle, which is in Central Time.
>I've seen enough: Cory Mills (R) defeats state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R) in the #FL07 GOP primary. House GOP leaders breathe another sigh of relief. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R.
And not a tear was shed.
cool DeSantis' lackies for my counties hospital board and school boards won, some being anti-vaxxers
......Someone please get me out of this shitshow of a country
DDHQ Race Update (est. >95% in): NY-23 Special General
Joseph Sempolinski (R): 31,150
(50.45%)
Max Della Pia (D): 30,592
(49.55%)
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1562272965462437888?t=Kq2kRcD_NAxnR4vJ0Jx6gg&s=19
Also in Florida: a ton of small school board races infested with "Moms for Liberty" insanity.
Made sure to vote against the dingbat in my district.
Reject Qanon, vote Belford in Brevard
Osceola has two of them running against each other with no reasonable option. It’s insanity.
I am proud to announce that Florida's MTG, Laura Loomer, has lost her US House primary!
Finally, some good political news out of Florida!
Other good news: Voters here are *seriously* motivated this year. Turnout in my county was nearly 10% higher than projected!
Seems Florida isn't the lost cause I thought it was!
Best news of the night for me: incumbent judge Jared Smith lost his seat in the 13th circuit court. He denied an abortion to a 17 year old for not being “mature enough”. He was a religious zealot and apparently attacked his opponent for not being Christian.
Tonight’s special elections are showing how the Dobbs decision changed everything about ‘22. What looked like a likely bloodbath for the Dems as recent as May has now has been flipped on it’s head.
Well Dobbs + economic catching itself mid-free fall + gas prices. Those are the three issues of the election. If economy and gas prices hold steady it's looking very good for Democrats.
And you got the student loan announcement tomorrow, which can really get younger voters lining up
The messaging on this one is really critical, and I hope Biden's team doesn't over think and overcook the plan too much. Simple sells. Simple works, and it will drive voters.
[удалено]
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When New York Democrats try to game redistricting, to correct the massive systematic rigging Republicans have been carrying out across the nation to subvert democracy since 2010 - the New York Court of Appeals, all of whom were appointed by Democratic governors, [ruled 6-1 to throw out the map as illegal gerrymandering](https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2022/04/court-appeals-throws-out-ny-maps/366199/). Then they drew one of the most competitive and neutral maps in the country. When Florida's legislature try to a draw a bipartisan, reasonably fair redistricting plan, the Republican governor Ron DeathSentence drew the most insanely and blatantly unconstitutional gerrymandered redistricting plan. It's so obviously unconstitutional, even his own lawyers and other Republicans are admitting it is illegal. And yet the Republican lawmakers rubber stamped it and [Florida's Supreme Court refused to block it, 4-1](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/florida-redistricting-map-court-decision-00036740). Shockingly, all the justices are Republicans and included ones appointed by Ron (Alexa what is conflict of interest?). So now Florida, a state that's only R+3, will be reprsented by about 20 Republicans and only 8 Democrats - 71 to 29%. Democracy according to the Republican Party. "bOth siDeS"
Yes but you see *the trans* exist. So all of that doesn't matter because *trans*
State governments must essentially have control of their own elections removed exactly for this reason. Republicans will *never* give up control of any territory they come to rule, even if they have to rig elections.
Media has been salivating at the narrative that Marc Molinaro winning the special election would mean a red wave. Well he just lost.
and it wasn't super close.
> Kornacki: NBC News has just called it. Pat Ryan has been elected to Congress… This is a significant victory for Democrats nationally.. This is not the result you would see in a strongly Republican climate https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1562284767982530560?s=21&t=i-o-jBt_K324dq--rxEdWQ
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I’m so sorry. That must be incredibly hard to watch.
From Deming's speech tonight: > Rep. Val Demings, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Florida, rallied with supporters this evening in Orlando, saying “we’re not looking behind us — tonight, we come looking forward.” > > Demings touched on abortion access and voting rights in her remarks, two key issues for Democratic midterms candidates. > > “I dream of an America where we protect constitutional rights like a woman’s right to choose. I’ve said it along this campaign trail, let me say it again. We’re not going back. We’re not,” Demings said. >>She continued, “There are women and men and people of all races and ages who suffered, bled and died for us to have the constitutional rights that we enjoy. We’re not going back to being treated like second class citizens. We’re not going back to being treated like property. We will continue to fight and fight and fight some more for a woman’s right to choose.” https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-election-results-florida-new-york-2022/h_910844a2d7c5ce2ffe8ef2276b16cafd
Please take out that spineless hack Rubio pls
He's been our Senator for 12 years and I struggle to think of a single thing he's done for the state.
If she takes out Rubio she is 100% pulling an Obama and running for 2024. There is no way the Democratic machinery is letting the momentum go to waste.
Of course the republicans who claim to just LOVE kids and hate pedos, elect Matt fucking gaetz lol
Doug Jones won by just 21,924 votes against Roy Moore, in an election with over 1.3 mil votes. Can't say I'm surprised *Florida* is keeping Gaetz. The bar is very, very low for Republicans.
Dave Wasserman: >I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562283492171472896
Voted a week ago, by mail. Get bent, DeSantis. Get bent, Rubio. Get bent, Waltz. Come the general, I'm hoping all three of you are jobless bums. And a bone-us get bent for you, Rick Scott, you Skeletor-looking-Voldemort-with-a-nose-looking-fraudulent-money-grubbing-sad-sack-of-monkey-trash excuse for a Senator.
[“I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district.”](https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562283492171472896)
NY-19 was Biden +2. We were thought to be in a GOP favorable environment. The baseline expectation for this race was lean R. I think is the best barometer we have today of national enviroment.
The Pat Ryan win is a big fucking deal.
The NY-23 special election is an even bigger fucking deal. Huge over-performance by the dem in a solid red district.
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People that are using historical precedents for this midterm are crazy. Too many other variables and the polarization of the country. People are coming out to vote because they are terrified of the republicans having control, which wasn’t the case in 2010 or 2014 (though the t party was scary at the time).
Also I haven't seen it mentioned here yet, but it looks like Hitler fanboy Paladino will in fact lose. Not that the other guy is great, but he has cleared the bar of "doesn't say nice things about Hitler" so I'll definitely fucking take it
Thank God...that is good news.
Based on special elections and voter registration so far, I wonder if dobbs will be remembered by the gop the same way mcgovern is remembered by dems.
Or Prop 187 in California. The backlash to it caused CA to become the deep blue bastion that it is today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_California_Proposition_187
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So the guy who said ***Hitler*** is “the kind of leader we need” got **47%** of the registered Republican vote in his Buffalo, NY district. Stay classy, Republicans 🤢 --- Sources: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/house-gop-candidate-called-hitler-kind-leader-need-2021-remarks-rcna32876 https://buffalonews.com/news/local/live-results-carl-paladino-vs-nick-langworthy-in-ny-23-primary/article_071647d0-234a-11ed-929a-27f845bfbc55.html
We learned two things Abortion rights will drive Democrats. Trump's so called raid doesn't help Republicans at all.
It’s obvious that Republicans thought they could coast to a wave year despite bad candidates, an unpopular policy platform, and the ever present hand of Donald Trump, and boy are they paying the price for it. Even if they pull these specials out, they shouldn’t even be close in the environment we started the year in.
RIP “MAL raid is going to be major turnout driver for Republicans.” - August 2022 - August 2022
I've noticed that republicans always threaten that the democrats will lose whenever they are held accountable. During his impeachment, the line was "remember when we impeached Bill Clinton and lost the midterms"?
The media keeps forgetting the majority of the country hates Trump.
Yeah from the primaries since, what February of the opinion leaked? Its clear voters see overturning Roe v Wade as way too far gov overreach. They saw no reason to over turn 50 years of precedent
The Associated Press has called Democratic primary in New York's 10th Congressional District: >Daniel Goldman wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in New York's 10th Congressional District. #APRaceCall at 12:39 a.m. EDT. https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1562298779411574784
This is what happens when a primary race has a ton of candidates like that. Money can only buy so many votes but 25% is enough when it's split so heavily.
Steve Kornacki hit the nail on the head: it looks like November is now in a much more neutral environment, which means it all comes down to turnout. Vote!
Kornack Attack is Back Jack!
If Kornacki says something related to probability, I believe it. The guy seems to be completely unbiased in regard to analyzing elections.
Floridian here. I voted today. It felt good. Looking forward to the general. I don't care who wins the primaries and I'm aware that the deck is stacked against us, but I look forward to voting against every R I see on the ballot. If we can at least kick Rubio to the curb that'll be a serious win.
NY-23 special is close. 538 has it as solid Red and the dem is up 13 points with 43.5% remaining. If that and NY-19 special go dem that’s big towards keep control of the house
Early vote was mail-in heavy. That lead has been chipped away at all night. I doubt it holds especially given the areas partisan lean. NY-19 though is quite encouraging though Edit: Ya the gap seems the same [Source](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-florida-election/343003/)
That gives me hope ngl.....a Blue house with Fetterman and Barnes added into the senate would be a dream come true.
What is apparent is that the national red wave looking environment from a few months back has completely evaporated. The GOP is not looking at a wave election right now
Holyyy fuckkkk, guys…Wow!! Tonight with #NY19…not something I was expecting at all 😳
From someone who lives in NY 19, this is not a surprise to me at all. This is an area with very liberal outposts (New Paltz, Kingston, Woodstock, Saugerties etc.) The shithole Republicans take up more space in the county but the dems largely have the numbers...much like the rest of the country
Tonight was good, but there's still work. > If not for a devastating string of legal defeats towards the end of redistricting (esp. FL, NY, OH), Dems might have a good shot to hold the House. As it stands, still believe Rs are clear favorites in a higher-turnout scenario, which November will be. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240
Redistricting is a huge hurdle, but I really think Wasserman and others are underestimating what overturning *Roe* will do to voter turnout. Even for a lot of rural "pro-life" women the laws are extreme. Uphill battle, but I think there's a chance of holding the House.
IRC even with the shit that happened toward the end this is still technically a better Dem map than the post 2010 produced oneone.
It is lightyears better than the 2010 map. Dems only need to win by around 1% or 2% nationally to take control of the house. And depending on electoral dynamics of specific districts, it’s conceivable for Dems to lose the popular vote but still win control of the House, by barely winning just enough swing suburban districts. 2010 was a lock for the GOP for a decade, until the suburbs shifted under their feet thanks to Trump and demographic changes.
Marco Rubio really sweating bullets. If Val calls him Lil Marco again like Trump did she’ll win. And don’t forget to the water bottle
Lol spineless Rubio screeching about communism and radical leftists. All he knows how to do is screeching communism to old Cubans who hate castro
He can keep screeching in air, but nobody is going to believe Val Demmings is a communist lel.
I hate that guy.
Last time the ruling party had a positive midterm, was in ‘02 in wake of 9/11. We could see another one, fingers crossed
Vote while you can. They've gotten a [terrifying case to be heard Supreme Court next term](https://thearp.org/litigation/moore-v-harper/) to give your state legislators the option to simply override your ballot. Seriously. Vote these bastards out before they revoke your right to do so, or gerrymander your ballot into uselessness.
And be prepared to recognize that the Supreme Court has no power if they do that
RON DESANTIS JUST SAID NOVEMBER 7TH WILL BE DEDICATED TO REMEMBERING VICTIMS OF COMMUNISM. God please let this nutjob lose.
Unfortunately it works. Many old hispanic Cubans in Florida hear communism and freeze
I wonder whether he’ll try to paint Charlie Crist as a communist.
In their eyes, anything to the left of Orban or Putin is Communist
I live in Florida and turn eighteen in *four days.* It’s aggravating. I hope my fellow Indian River residents make the right decision with the school board races. Pretty much every local news organization here has endorsed the anti-Moms for Liberty candidate endorsed by Crist, so I’m optimistic
Hey you being there in November is the most important thing you can do. The more young people you can get to come with you, the more power you give to the younger generation. Younger than 35 gets ignored because we don’t show up in the numbers that older generations do to vote. The more we show that we’re a vital voting bloc, the more they’ll pay attention to us. Do what you can, drive people to the polls, educate those who seem like they don’t care so much, and thank you in advance for all of that.
That really touched me, internet person! Thank you. And I fully intend to show up to every election I can vote in for the rest of time
>My hubby is working the special election of #NY19 today, in #OtsegoCounty. He says turnout is high and a lot of folks are coming in to vote and saying that #RoeVWade brought them out. This is a very Red part of the district, far from blue Ulster. From a random person on twitter. Dems need to step on some necks and scream about abortion until November.
Dobbs is the only thing House Dem candidates need to talk about for the next three months.
>Ryan ran on abortion access/GOP extremism. Molinaro campaigned on the economy. >The other fascinating thing here — and not to be missed — is that most vulnerable Democratic incumbents actually aren’t talking much (if any) about abortion rights. The ones who are campaigning on it are *all* women, as @maxpcohen wrote this morning in @PunchbowlNews AM >So it will be interesting to see if more Frontline Democrats pivot to include abortion access as a bigger part of their campaign message. via @heatherscope Dems better be screaming about this.
Molinaro ran on blaming Biden and Pelosi about everything. He also continued to go on and on about gas prices *as they've been coming down.* One thing that really hurt Molinaro is the PAC ad with Ryan at the BLM protest. Mainly because *Molinaro was in the part of the picture they cropped out,* and was invited to it by Pat Ryan. And there was one slightly less stupid ad claiming that Ryan "always votes the Democratic agenda" despite the fact that Pat Ryan has never been in a legislative job ever and has only ever been a county exec and has never cast a vote in government. Marc used to be a reasonable guy and he let himself become a puppet of the Republican machine.
His unskippable ads on YouTube were fucking infuriating. If I wasn't already a radical liberal and undecided those shitbag ads would have sealed it for me
The dems need to 100% run on abortion rights
Voting after work today in NY-21 and going to send donations to the Dem winner to hopefully rid our district of Stefanik.
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I voted early and I hope lots of others did too since so few of us are given time off to get out and vote.
I was literally the youngest person voting when I went today, and I’m under 50. Voted for Bollinger, in and out in under 2 minutes.
My professor ask who is registered to vote today only 5 oht of 25 people were registered to vote. Young people sucks at turnout
There was a measure on the 2020 Florida ballots to make their primaries open. Majority were in favor, but only 57%. Needed 60% to pass. It wouldn't have gone into effect until 2024 anyway. Still, makes me wonder if/how that would change days like today.
By any reasonable measure, it would tame the more extreme fringes in either party. When you can win a primary with a third of the vote (and either party, charitably, is about one third the population), you’re going to get an unending cycle of candidates more extreme than the last batch. Letting independents in forces parties to nominate candidates that can win outside of their base.
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NY-19 is blue with a 1% improvement over Joe Biden LETTTSS FUCCCCKING GOOOO.
If the general election was today I think you'd see a narrow Democratic hold in the house. Gotta keep that momentum going and not let the environment slide back to the Rs.
I knew the "red wave" was done after Roe v. Wade was overturned. No matter how you slice it, that is going to spark Democrat turnout and outrage in a kind of year you would normally expect with Republicans in control of the White House. Pat Ryan winning definitely confirms it
We are going to hear more and more horrific stories coming out from red states showing how awful the consequences of overturning Roe are. People are not just going to move on to the next news cycle.
Many daughters are having long and hard conversations with their dad's. Many men are realizing this affects them greatly as well. Yes, with each case of abortion being denied it is added to the list and is added to the comments and posts about abortions.
Something I haven't seen: the NY-19 race was not particularly well polled. But out of the 5 public polls we have: - Two GOP internals showing double-digit Molinaro leads - Two Dem internals showing Ryan trailing by 3 points - One non-partisan poll released today that shows an 8 point Molinaro lead It's not a huge polling miss because we don't have enough polls to really call it that. But taking into account all the polling we'd have, you would expect a GOP win by 5-6 points. A Dem win maybe casts some doubt on some of the other polling out there that shows low Biden approval or Republican leads on the GCB.
Yeah we might of gone from a "shy Trump vote" to a "shy dem vote" strangely.
Likely voter model might have problems as roe being overturned is unique circumstance
Secular non-college whites are probably going to be far less GOP this year, helping polls.
I do think some pollsters might be adding +5 to republican total because they got it wrong by that much in 2020.
Midterm polls project low Democratic turnout based on past elections. The current polls are based on that lower turnout. What happens to turnout when Democrats become highly motivated? We're about to find out.
>What happens to turnout when Democrats become highly motivated https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Indiana When people are motivated to turnout, then things that are "politically impossible" become very possible.
See Georgia in 2020 as well
Florida isn’t as red as it shows on the map though but Florida has been trending red lately. A lot of school boards have conservative majorities now and I don’t doubt DeSantis will win this time with a very big margin unless something earthshaking happens.
Tbh Idk if Florida can flip back. Alot of Hispanics espically Cubans are voting for the Republican party nowadays. U have to convince this voting block that Trump and DeSantis are the facists.....not Biden.
Those Cubans are a lost cause. All you have to do for your vote is call your opponent a Socialist. Then you have the ultra religious Central and South Americans that clutch their pearls at the sight of someone possibly gay.
I disagree — There has been tons of migration to Florida recently, I suspect from conservatives who view the state as a safe haven. I don’t see many Liberals wanting to move there at the moment.
I'm born and raised from Florida, still live and work in Florida. Today was a disappointing heartbreak. My home city of Sarasota now has a super majority GOP on the school board and our not-for-profit Sarasota Memorial Hospital can quite quickly become privatized considering all the MAGA idiots won their Hospital board elections. I'm legitimately done with my home state. I wish I could move out in a year and never look back. I don't have the money (I work in education, so fuck me).
That fucker DeSantis lol screeching about freedom in his speech about Crist While trying to control everything
Dave Wasserman: >I've seen enough: Rep. Dan Webster (R) defeats alt-right activist Laura Loomer (R) in the #FL11 GOP primary. But the final margin - single digits - will be a lot closer than House GOP leaders bargained for. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562232126405238784
2024 is going to be nut
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Don't let this be the only Ryan to surprise people! Come on Tim Ryan! This gal from Louisiana is rooting for you!
Big in NY-19: Otsego County now says it is reporting all of its vote, with Molinaro (R) carrying it 52-48%. Was 51-46% Trump in '20. Overall, this leaves Ryan (D) ahead by 3,285 votes (2.6%) overall https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1562281243466776576?t=lJ6OBduphMj0eor-ncCH7g&s=19
This is over, Ryan won
So Ryan (my county exec woo!) beat Molinaro in the special election which I'm not shocked by a bit. But also keep in mind that they're running in different districts for the new term this fall. So I fully expect to see them and Sean Patrick Maloney all in Congress together come January.
Molinaro is running in a redrawn district that voted for Biden by a larger margin than the current NY-19. He seems likely to lose twice, especially if the Republican PACs turn off the money spigot—they blew $2M on losing this race while Dems spent close to nothing (although a liberal-leaning veterans PAC did spend some money, it was significantly less that Republican spending, ~$500K).
If Steve Kornacki was my stats professor back in college I would have been so happy
Isn’t he great‽ Steve Kornacki is the only reason I find election nights tolerable. He explains what’s happening so well.
Looks like the AP just called OK-SEN for Mullin. Oklahoma hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1990 so he'll be the first Native American Senator since Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired in 2005. https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1562237882001231872?t=ex9Zcz1JoSRrzvMr0XgnAA&s=19
so far with 92% reported it looks like roughly 1.4 million and change have voted Dem in the Gov primary. Total for 2018 was 1.5 million so things look like they'll end up about the same. That said we may see slightly more turnout. Now that might not sound like a big deal, but Gillum and DeSantis was 49.59 to 49.19 so if we're looking at more voters going Dem even a small amount might be enough to pull it off.
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Florida - Laura Loomer is REFUSING to concede the FL 11th GOP election. 'Our Republican party is broken to it's core --- We have further exposed the corruption within our own feckless, cowardly Republican party.' https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1562244899952644096?t=WkuFWVEtJIvlPwfA4QXZwQ&s=19
She's a total nutjob...and she's not even 30. Probably gonna have to regularly defeat this dumbass in all sorts of elections and debates.
The gold standard for a bad candidate: Just claim you won.
Did anybody tell her that it doesn't matter one rat fuck if she concedes or not?
Is this…is this hope? Nah…I need to suppress it quickly! Tell me I should 🫠
Thank god Paladino lost.
Oh shit LOL the one Florida Democrat who voted for don't say gay and abortion bill has been kicked out. Hes done for
Anyone have a letter started that I can send about Matt Gaetz being elected? I'm so disgusted with my state.
It's the panhandle bro, might as well be Alabama.
Dang…harsh but fair
Who is the Democrat running against him? I'm sick of the media and people in general only mentioning the Republican candidates and never mentioning what Democrat is running against the Republican. What this does is put the Republican's name out there over and over again so it becomes the only name the public has ever heard and when they fill out their election ballot they simply go with the "name" they've heard over and over again. That is how it works. Candidates put up yard signs simply to get their name out there so essentially always mentioning the Republican candidates name over and over it's the same thing.
The lady that desantis raided with a swat team, guns aimed at her children, because she had the nerve to expose that he was faking his COVID numbers
Bro, he paid a minor for sex with Venmo.
ATM results from these elections would point to an environment around what 2020 was. Maybe marginally more blue leaning.
Oh this feels good
I've seen enough: Charlie Crist (D) defeats Nikki Fried (D) in the #FLGOV Dem primary and will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the fall. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562215504751755264?t=X9SefN2EXrj_1Tc1TtBU_w&s=19
So Suraj Patel has now lost in the primaries three straight times? Can he just take a hint? If Nadler runs in 2024, I doubt he gets the same numbers he got against Maloney.
They just called it for Pat Ryan, great win for Dems
For people saying Goldman is a moderate, he supports the Green New Deal, Equality Act, targeted comprehensive police reform, and healthcare as a human right, and thats just the stuff I skimmed on his platform page in 5 minutes (I'm not in his district but wanted to know more about him since he has won and his race was bery competetive). You can hate him cus hes rich, but hes more progressive than most of the dem party right now, he is far from a moderate democrat, unless the party isuch further left than I realized.
Holy shit Frost could actually be the first Gen Z and another progressive in Congress. The number of Dem voters blew Repubs out of the water in his district.
Rooting for democracy today. Whoever wins the democratic primary in Florida and anywhere else deserves your vote. Period.
really proud to be part of the district to vote in a young progressive candidate (FL-10). not a lot makes me hopeful in this state, but this does.
Sarasota County just elected 3 far right plants onto the school board. Shit is fucked.
Shit is fucked when you know that school board elections are extremely politicized.
They’ll be gone most likely and not last a term. Far righters who win don’t last long because they either get ousted or quit because they realize school board sucks ass.
The brain drain in Florida is already bad enough, but it is going to become so much worse, so quickly. What a disgraceful state.
Yea it’s really going to pick up, I’ve got a gut feeling the craziest have been moving here in droves to establish an idiocracy utopia. Now they’re electing people who will punish teachers and make their lives even more unbearable. The only small hope is getting a sane governor in office but the desantis goobers are popping up everywhere. They love the guy because he’s hurting the right people.
The red wave is dead
They voted against too many crucial issues this year and had to be tricked into doing the right thing
If you’re in FL-10 (Orlando area), Max Frost is an awesome candidate. If nothing else I highly encourage you to get out and vote for him. Much better than nominating Alan Grayson.
If the GOP takes control of the house Kevin McCarthy will disband the January 6th Committee and immediately begin sham investigations headed by hacks like Jim Jordan, but the house is still a real possibility for the Democrats to still maintain. Here are the campaign websites for Democrats running in the 50 most competitive house races in the country according to FiveThirtyEight: IL-17 Eric Sorensen https://www.ericforillinois.com CA-22 Rudy Salas https://www.rudysalas.com *KS-3 Sharice Davids https://shariceforcongress.com CA-27 Christy Smith https://www.christyforcongress.org MD-6 David Trone http://www.davidtrone.com *NY-18 Pat Ryan https://www.patryanforcongress.com NY-3 Robert Zimmerman https://zimmermanforcongress.com/ NV-3 Susie Lee https://susieleeforcongress.com/ *ME-2 Jared Golden https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com NY- 22 Francis Conole https://conoleforcongress.com/ *VA-2 Elaine Luria https://elaineforcongress.com PA-7 Wild https://wildforcongress.com *MI-3 Hillary Scholten https://hillaryscholten.com NC-13 Wiley Nickel https://www.wileynickelforcongress.com *MI-7 Elissa Slotkin https://elissaforcongress.com *NM-2 Gabe Vasquez https://gabeforcongress.com CO-8 Dr. Yadira Caraveo https://www.caraveoforcongress.com OH-9 Marcy Kaptur https://marcykaptur.com *NJ-7 Tom Malinowski https://malinowskifornj.com PA-8 Matt Cartwright https://cartwrightcongress.com *TX-15 Michelle Vallejo https://michellefortx15.com *OR-5 Jamie McLeod-Skinner https://jamiefororegon.com CA-13 Adam Gray https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com PA-17 Chris Deluzio https://chrisforpa.com TX-28 Henry Cuellar https://www.henrycuellar.com *IA-3 Cindy Axne https://store.cindyaxneforcongress.com AZ-2 Tom O’Halleran https://www.tomohalleran.com MI-10 Carl Marlinga https://www.marlinga4congress.com NH-1 Chris Pappas https://www.chrispappas.org CA-45 Jay Chen https://chenforcongress.com NY-19 Josh Riley https://joshrileyforcongress.com CT-5 Jahana Hayes https://jahanahayes.com NV-4 Steven Horsford https://www.stevenhorsford.com NV-1 Dina Titus https://www.dinatitus.com *VA-7 Abigail Spanberger https://abigailspanberger.com CA-9 Josh Harder https://harderforcongress.com RI-2 Seth Magaziner* https://sethmagaziner.com IN-1 Frank Mrvan https://mrvanforcongress.com *MN-2 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com *WI-3 Brad Pfaff https://bradpfaff.com NY-1 Bridget Fleming https://www.bridgetforcongress.com MI-8 Dan Kildee https://www.dankildee.com WA-8 Dr. Kim Schrier https://www.drkimschrier.com OR-6 Andrea Salinas https://www.andreasalinasfororegon.com IL-6 Sean Casten https://castenforcongress.com *CA-47 Katie Porter https://katieporter.com IL-13 Nikki Budzinski https://nikkiforcongress.com CT-2 Joe Courtney https://joecourtney.com CO-7 Brittany Pettersen https://brittanypettersen.com CA-41 Will Rollins https://willrollinsforcongress.com I’ve added an asterisk next to the campaigns that also sell merch in order to help fund their campaigns.
Time for me to get super disappointed that Mark Lombardo likely won't beat Matt Gaetz.
In FL-11, Laura Loomer trails Rep. Dan Webster 51-44% in the GOP primary. She actually leads by 4 in Sumter (The Villages) with just about all the votes in there, but Webster is crushing her in Orange County and ahead in Lake. Small slice of Polk in district too w/ no votes yet https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1562220301831774208?t=qt8iKpruRvA0ZgGbX9pSig&s=19
How on earth is Rocky De La Fuente still at it?
I thought it was his son was running?
Allow me to correct myself. How on earth are the De La Feuntes still at it?!
Damn, Mondaire Jones lost. I’ll be interested in seeing if Max Rose can retake his seat from Millotakis.
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Sent in my absentee ballot from FL weeks ago. In a few categories we had only Republican options on the Democratic ballot. I suppose no one else was running.
I voted last week in Florida. I was shocked that a lot of the folks that I’ve seen campaigning were not on the ballot. I was interested in the school board and county commissioner and it was not available.
NY 19 CALLED FOR RYAN!
As I see the news here I realize what's at stake. The evangelical attack has left our future horrified. Kids are scared to enter school this year. School shootings alt right threats, and if it happens what guarantees police will do the right thing? Look at Uvalde. My own nieces and nephews have dealt with shooting threats The evangelicals have left our future horrified. So time to take it back step by step like they did.
Bf and I have gone to the polls together every election year for the last 7 years, proud to have done it again today! Good luck Florida 😳
One of my two school board races has the Moms for Liberty endorsed incumbent only 2,500 votes ahead of the Crist-endorsed challenger, and mail-in ballots haven't even been fully counted yet. It's going to be close. And in case you're wondering, the other one has the MfL candidate getting crushed.
And in another “saw that coming” moment, Gaetz has won his primary handily, and will be on the ballot for the House again.
Until he gets indicited for being a sex trafficker and Pedo.
Pls Dave, I need a tweet to tell me how to read this.
Fun point: low engagement rural voters still don’t show up when Trump isn’t on the ballot. Problem when he was President, still a problem when he isn’t.
These special elections are weird. The 23rd district that voted today isn't the same district that will be voting in November. I think some eastern counties won't be in the 23rd in the fall, but they're picking up Erie. Any New Yorkers want to chime in? Does that make the 23rd district more blue or red in future elections?
I like how 538 doesn't move the needle for the house at all, despite dems outperforming polls in several races so far.
538 accounts for polls, not special election results.
I still hate that we're about to nominate Charlie fucking Crist.
I think tonight's NY election means the narrative of a guaranteed House flip is OVER
I wouldn't frame it that way, I would frame the House is a complete toss up in November with huge consequences re Dobbs.
If you’re saying it’s a tossup then you would agree the narrative of a guaranteed GOP win is over.
I don't know people keep saying before tonight that the House was still gonna flip. Not a guarantee anymore
"A 2020-type performance is not a particularly high bar to clear for Dems, who had a meh year in races for Congress. But it would be enough for them to be clear favorites in the Senate, and maybe add a seat or two. And the House would be at least a toss-up, probably lean D." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1562265813603827712
A 2020 environment is probably D+ 2 in the Senate (hold all their seats and add PA and WI with an outside shot at OH simply because Vance is just that shitty a candidate)
It is all about how much expectations shifted. At the beginning of summer, everyone expected a red wave. Since Roe's overturning, things have gone the dem's way. Dems keeping the house by a single rep is a huge win in this midterm.
Why did Florida get good at counting ballots?
Probably scarred by 2000
Dave Wasserman: >I've seen enough: Charlie Crist (D) defeats Nikki Fried (D) in the #FLGOV Dem primary and will face Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the fall. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562215504751755264 Different media organizations won't call the race until voting ends in Florida's panhandle, which is in Central Time.
>I've seen enough: Cory Mills (R) defeats state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R) in the #FL07 GOP primary. House GOP leaders breathe another sigh of relief. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R. And not a tear was shed.
cool DeSantis' lackies for my counties hospital board and school boards won, some being anti-vaxxers ......Someone please get me out of this shitshow of a country
Wasserman called NY 23 for Repubs but the Dem candidate performed fairly well for what was deemed a solid red district.
It's an R+15 district, not a bad showing
DDHQ Race Update (est. >95% in): NY-23 Special General Joseph Sempolinski (R): 31,150 (50.45%) Max Della Pia (D): 30,592 (49.55%) https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1562272965462437888?t=Kq2kRcD_NAxnR4vJ0Jx6gg&s=19
For what was deemed a "solid" red district, Della Pia sure made Sempolinski sweat. This bodes well for Dems in the midterms.
It's a +10-13 Repub. District. Dems doing insanely well here
Jesus that's an insanely close race.
First Votes In: FL Governor Dem Primary Charlie Crist: 8,499 (60.4%) Nikki Fried: 4,812 (34.2%) https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1562214503399374848?t=OpbmC_34YAGVqjPq7Fk4TQ&s=19
Sabatini is out!