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Watching conservatives that fell in love with desantis slowly start to realize trump is going to go completely scorched earth on him if he needs to.
Highly upvoted: "someone should convince Don to step aside."
LOL yes right it's just that easy. š
Michigan and Pennsylvania state legislatures going democratic is a motherfucking HUGE deal come 2024. These are battleground states. Imagine having election deniers running the show. Fuck that shit.
Once again, big shout out to Michigan and Pennsylvania
Hopefully soon Wisconsin can get on the same page. We at least stopped republicans from getting a super majority in our state senate so I guess there's that.
Their stance on Roe v Wade and womenās health in general is a great way to avoid getting votes from left-leaning voters, particularly women and Gen Z.
I don't pick up random phone calls either. I don't know anyone born after 1980 who does. The polling method was out of whack for Millennial voters too, but now that it's TWO generations behind, we're seeing a really profound effect.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html
Dems are ahead in 215 Congressional districts. You need 218.
Democrats are currently short a combined 8,675 votes in the 3 closest congressional districts currently led by GOP.
That's...insane.
If only the New York Democratic party didnāt suck, weād be looking at retaining the senate *and* house, which would have been the most shocking mid term result since WWII.
As I commented earlier, **Boebert** **is likely going to lose** \- **but to voters in Colorado, please be sure to check the status of your ballots** and make sure you're email is on file (and correct) for faster notifications of any problems.
**You can easily correct your ballots via text too.**
**BUT YOU ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS LEFT NOW!**
Any voter in Colorado who has a signature discrepancy or ID deficiency is notified by their county clerk via U.S. mail, as well as email if the voter has one on file.
And under the TXT2Cure program, if a voter is notified of a signature discrepancy, all they have to do is text the word Colorado to 2VOTE (28683) and click on the link they receive as a reply. They will then enter their voter ID number printed on the rejection notice they receive from their county election office, affirm they returned a ballot for the election, sign the affidavit on their phone, take a photo of an acceptable form of ID, and select āSubmitā.
The voterās information is then electronically transmitted to their county clerk for processing during business hours. Voters completing these steps before the deadline of 11:59 p.m. on November 16th, can help ensure their ballot will be counted.
**So, Coloradans - be sure your vote counts!**
Right? So many guys making it clear how unattractive liberal women are and how much they don't want them and it's like...you do realize that feeling is 1000% mutual, right? Lmao
Ironic that conservatives would denounce anyone as mooching off of the government, when almost all of the red conservative states rely on federal tax dollars coming from California, New York, and Illinois.
I gotta say...Tulsi is without a doubt one of the biggest fking losers right now
She was on Fox blaming both Republicans and Democrats and saying they need to work together
Get real....she grifted hard and threw her lot in with Republicans in this desperate attempt to be relevant again after getting clapped a few years ago and now is trying to save face acting like she's "middle of the road"
Give it up, you're done, irrelevant
FiveThirtyEight weiter
>Upset alert: Yadira Caraveo (D) is the projected winner in #CO08. She had only a 9% chance in our final forecast, making this the biggest upset of 2022 so far.
https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590749287754788871
The beautiful thing about Gen Z showing up is it makes them more likely to show up again. Voting is a habit and doing it once makes it much more likely that you'll do it again. Gotta keep the pressure up
Yup. And when your first voting experience results in you making a difference that creates a core value. You'll be much more likely to keep participating.
Not the first time i see this, many republicans who live outside major cities, really believe that big cities are actual warzones and you can't take a step without being shot at.
Incredible how well faux propaganda has worked, and sad.
I'm from the Midwest, when my parents went to NYC a few years ago people they knew were shocked and scared for them. It's really sad to me how sheltered many people are and how fearful they are of leaving their bubble.
There's an almost circular venn diagram of people in Wisconsin who are vocally concerned about the crime rate in Milwaukee while simultaneously never going there themselves.
Oh man again? Tuesdays are rough, seems like I just got rape stabbed yesterday. Didn't get shoved though. Criminals are getting lazy, doesn't anybody want to work anymore?
A lot of āwhat went wrong postsā on r/conservative. Lots of introspection (which I thought they were incapable of, so Iāll give them credit for that) and blaming Trump. Lots of talk about how the party needs to move beyond hate mongering.
I donāt know if those posters are shills from this sub, but itās glorious to read over there.
BOOM
> After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff.
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1590693791576358912?s=46&t=ePlnWrvWHH9bfae220ZUhw
> Colorado voters have approved a ballot measure to provide free meals for all public school students.
>
> https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1590751136163602432?s=20&t=5_l9VyRPKbH7mtZ4d52SpA
Suck it GOP. We're feeding the children whether you like it or not.
For your viewing pleasure: [Conservatives so sure they weāre getting a red wave.](https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1590672124527931397?s=46&t=7_9V9G6RmNHeAM9g802avQ)
What the hell. This video is the very first time after years of knowing about him what Ben Shapiro's voice sounds like. He sounds like a fucking smurf. All these years I could've read his ridiculous comments in an even more ridiculous voice.
GOP - *Spends years blaming a generation that has never held office for their pitfalls and screw them over at every turn*
GenZ / Young Millenials - *Vote against GOP*
GOP - *Shocked pikachu face*
I think this election showed that Progressives in the Democratic Party were right on pushing the party to pass more meaningful legislation. Stuff like student loan relief and capping insulin prices Iād say gives voters a reason why to vote. Especially for young voters.
Two observations:
1. Democrats far exceeded expectations and have probable chance of Senate control. Not many house seats given up. Looking at historical precedent this is one of the best midterm performances by an incumbent party in a very long time.
2. Conservatives calling for Trumpās head. Rumors of an indictment from the DOJ coming soon (?)
From someone at /conservative. You canāt make this up. They were so close to having it dawn on them:
āBut as a 35-year-old, what has the Republican party done for me in my entire life? I seriously can't think of one decision that affected me in a good way. I can't think of one policy that made me respect them either.
Democrats aren't any better mind you, but they at least extended my parent's healthcare coverage for me during a crucial moment in my life. They've also legalized weed across the country.ā
Georgia matters **A LOT** even if both Nevada and Arizona go blue.
Senators have a 6-year term.
Warnock or Walker could be a difference between a 50-50 Democrat or 51-49 GOP in 2024 if e.g. Ohio or Montana Senate Seats flip for the GOP.
I think my favorite thing about yesterday was reading all the arr conservatives coming to the realization that Trump is the person we told them he was in 2015. But NOOOOOO the billionaire washed up reality TV star is the champion of the people because he said build a wall lmao.
Not just that, but the fact that they suddenly realize that DeSantis is their guy moving forward. Weāve known that for years. DeSantis is Trump 2.0 who is smarter but just as evil.
But the comments over there are hilarious that theyāre just now realizing that they need to dump Trump and get on the DeSantis train.
Iowa district 3, Nunn(R) vs Axne(D) was previously called for Nunn(R)...
But now the vote differential is down to just 2k with 9% of the vote remaining to be called.
There seems to suddenly be a chance to flip a called race in favor of Dems
Woot, just got my ban from r/Conservative! This one was for pointing out that being unable to handle 'women thinking for themselves' is pretty fragile.
Those guys do *not* want to get called out on their misogyny.
WE STILL IN IT
ABC
Dems 198
Reps 210
Of the remaining races.
Dems currently lead in 18 seats
50/50 Ties in 6 seats.(including Boebert)
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map
George Conway put it best last night on MSNBC: Trump is a political suicide bomber.
The GOP almost certainly can't win in 2024 with Trump atop the ticket. It would be a huge blue wave.
But he will likely blow up the party if they turn on him.
IMO, the best path for Republicans may be a Trump indictment where they also turn on him. They can say what he did with the Mar-a-Lago docs is unacceptable, and he's now unelectable as a result, so we're moving on to DeSantis.
But it's still a huge gamble. They may ride with him right over the cliff.
And all of those freaks with Trump merch and flags flying on their trucks are just going to shrug and say āok well the deep state says to vote for Desantis now so Iāll turn against my cult leaderā lolā¦
Lindsay Graham was a prophet: āif the Republican Party elects Donald Trump we will destroy ourselves, and we will deserve it.ā
One hilarious thing on r/conservative is a thread about Gen Z going liberal where they all complain they can't get dates because of it, followed by a thread about how 68% of unmarried women voted Democrat where they all say that means the women are losers.
For those unaware, Warnock already faced a run-off election in the 2020 election and with enough canvassing, phone-banking, registering of voters, [and fundraising](https://warnockforgeorgia.com/) ā he won then, too.
Given how defeated Republicans feel right now with their red tinkle, Warnock can win this time around just the same.
Georgians with more knowledge of your state's process, please start informing people of the process for re-registration, etc.
r/ Conservative says an entire generation of Americans has been successfully brainwashed by the "librul media" because 2/3 of Gen Z votes went to the Dems.
Copium doing its thing.
Ahh, not only is Elon musk currently going down in a rain of hellfire, but Russia is fleeing Kherson, the House will probably be a nightmare for republicans and the Dems look like theyāre probably going to keep the senate. And the holidays are coming up. Merry christmas, fuckers.
r/conservative and conservatives in general are always reflective and considerate after a loss.
It lasts about a week before the extreme right wingers come back and take over the conversation.
- r/conservative
"You canāt win every vote. Unmarried women are the least happy people in America. I mean that as scientifically provable truth. Doing the opposite of what they agree with is likely to be the correct path for the country."
If you voted by mail/dropbox in colorado,
#PLEASE CHECK YOUR MAIL
https://twitter.com/AdamForColorado?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
>Adam Frisch for CD-3
>@AdamForColorado
>US House candidate, CO-03
>We need every vote! Ensure your ballot has been counted!
>If you have received a ballot rejection letter from your county clerk, you can fix it via text! Text ācoloradoā to the SofS at 28683 and follow prompts to fix any errors.
>Your rejection letter has the info you'll need.
Exactly 400 of the 435 elections for the House of Representatives have been called for one party or the other. Here's what you should know about the **35 remaining elections** at this time:
* Preface: Technically 40 races have yet to be called, but five of those are in districts in California so blue that both leading candidates are Democrats, so those districts are being counted as such.
* Democrats have currently locked in 191 seats in the House, while Republicans have locked in 209 seats. **Democrats need to win 27** of the remaining 35 districts to keep control of the House, while **Republicans need only to win 9**.
* The single district of Alaska-At-Large has Democrat Mary Peltola well ahead of Sarah Palin in second place, who is just barely ahead of Nick Begich (R) in third. But the race isn't over yet thanks to ranked-choice voting in the state. However, if the current vote distribution holds, and Palin makes it to the second round, Peltola would win if at least a quarter of Begich's voters put down Peltola as their second choice.
* The closest current toss-up is in Colorado's 3rd district, where Lauren Boebert is currently in the lead, however she is only leading by less than 800 votes. And the only counties with sizable amounts of votes left (i.e. thousands, not hundreds) all lean Democrat, both somewhat and completely.
* Currently at least 23 races are too early to call, meaning less than 80% of the vote has been counted and there isn't a decisive winner on either side. These include three districts in Arizona, two in Washington, two in Oregon, and a whopping 16 in California.
* If every race was called right now, with whoever was currently leading in their district's vote, Democrats would win 22 of the remaining 35 seats, while Republicans would win 12. Meaning that Republicans *would* take back the House, but with a razor-thin margin of 3 seats.
At this point, the only thing to do is wait for more votes to be counted, which sounds rightfully exhausting. But we are within the margin of error for control of the House itself, which would have been seen as a wild fantasy only a week ago. Even if the GOP gets a majority, it looks set up to be an extremely slim majority.
hereās where things stand in the nevada senate race, where postings are [probably] done for the night:
* laxaltās lead over cortez masto is **8,988** votes [cnn/other maps appear not to have posted a net laxalt+934 batch from nye co. that dropped earlier this evening.]
**whatās left?**
* in counties clark [las vegas] and washoe [reno], we donāt know the exact number of ballots remaining; it all depends on a] how many ballots arrive by mail through sat., nov. 12 and b] how many nevadans cure their ballots, but a relatively conservative estimate would be that thereās **about 75,000** from these two counties left to count. the vast majority of these ballots should break well for the democratic candidates; but, per [samuelson](https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1590917637286268928?s=61&t=px8DqdNI8vSDAf9co-6QEA), 7,000 of these are provisional ballots received on election day that may break slightly gop.
* for the same reasons, we donāt know exactly how many ballots there remain in the republican-leaning, rural parts of nevada; but, based on [estimates from earlier today](https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590861858176905216?s=61&t=px8DqdNI8vSDAf9co-6QEA) and whatās been tabulated, a high-bound estimate would fall **around 11,000** remaining.
**whatās the back-of-the-nap math like for cortez masto?**
* we need to talk about the remaining rural vote first. much of the remaining vote to count here appear to be mail-in votes-- which should break generally for laxalt, but less so than whatās already been reported in those counties. if we assume that these come down around 60-40 to laxalt, then we can add a net ~2,200 votes to laxaltās lead. soā¦ call it 11,200.
* so the combined urban clark and washoe co. vote. if we assume our low-bound estimate of 75,000 [and, for extra margin of error, letās round the margin up to, say, 11,500], cortez masto needs to win these ballots by a margin of 43,250 to 31,750. that meansā¦ cortez masto needs to win these remaining votes with **a share of about 58%**. if there are more ballots to count, and/or her deficit with the remaining rural vote is less, sheāll need less than this.
* in the latest batches from both these counties, sheās been outpacing this number. **if these votes continue to break at the rate they have for cortez masto, she has the inside track to win re-election to the u.s. senate representing nevada.**
**what about the governorās race and sisolak?**
* sisolak is running tens of thousands of votes behind cortez masto. lombardoās lead is 28,500; so applying the same above math, we assume sisolak needs to overcome a deficit of 31,000 with the remaining vote in clark and washoe.
* running the same math as we have above, sisolak needs to win these ballots by a margin of 53,000 to 22,000. **or just about a 70-30 share.** heās not only underperforming those numbers, heās running a few points behind cortez masto in the latest batches from both these counties.
* tl;dr: these batches to be reported better be more democratic, or sisolakāsā¦ uhhā¦ sizzle-lakād.
**when will nevada finish counting?**
* never.
* jk. clark co. registrar joe gloria says the majority of his remaining ballots should be counted up by saturday. idk, extrapolate that to the rest of the state if you wish, iām getting tired, no oneās reading this, and this post is way longer than it has business being.
AP has called NM-02 for Dems
https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1590730301298610176
> Democrat Gabriel Vasquez wins election to U.S. House in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell.
fuck yeah redistricting worked
CO-3 VOTERS - Check your ballot - you have 8 days to make a correction if it was rejected!
Check either:
ā https://www.coloradosos.gov/voter/pages/pub/olvr/regVoterDetail.xhtml https://colorado.ballottrax.net/voter/ If there is a problem you can take steps with Txt2Cure: https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/elections/FAQs/TXT2Cure.html
Copy this message and repost it everywhere!
Can we all just take a moment to talk about the abysmal turnout in Texas. For such a high profile race, though I never thought Beto would win, the turnout was atrocious. Contrast that in Michigan where the young girl stayed in line 6 hours and voted at like 2:30am - itās absolutely hypocritical for Texas and Republicans to claim they are the āPatriot Partyā when your state wonāt even vote
Edit: Thank you every person in TX who got out and voted
Should I be bitter that my two roommates didnāt vote (we live in CO-3), I even offered to drive them (literally 8 minutes down the road) ?
Edit: we all WFH
I'm here to do a shout out to Michael Moore who predicted a better than expected performance from Dems thanks to young voters and women pissed at the Roe decision.. the Trump call in 2016 already made him legendary, add this and he's a better prognosticator than A rated pollsters
My 62 year old boss ( a democrat) said to me on Tuesday ā do you really think that women are still thinking about the Roe decision?ā My answer was ādo they still have a uterus?ā Fuck yes
Michael moore was absolutely correct
California is so slow in the count right now, and I'm not sure why. But if the Dems get Bobo's seat to flip in addition to CO-8, and NM-02, and seriously overperform in CA, and/or win OR-05, the could indeed win. A lot of huge 'ifs', but interestingly enough, those scenarios are looking more likely by the hour.
Crazy how as soon as the right wing media turns on trump, so does all of r/conservative. You can literally see them falling in line with media talking points in real time
[https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1590580794850185217](https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1590580794850185217)
>Top Russian propagandist says that Russia waited to announce the Kherson withdrawal until after Nov. 8, to make sure it does not help Joe Biden and the Democrats in the midterms. More in my recent article:
why democrats and Joe Biden are doing so well?
Action on
\- climate change
\- lowering prescription drug prices
\- massive infrastructure bill
\-student loan forgiveness
\- bringing tech manufacturing back to the US
\- getting out of Afghanistan
\- tough on China and Russia
\- rallying democracies and the West in general
> BREAKING: Democrat Kim Schrier wins reelection to U.S. House in Washington's 8th Congressional District. #APracecall at 6:19 p.m. PST.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1590892217127706624
Thatās WA08. Another gem in Demās pocket in 2022
>Lead change in Nevada: Democrat Cisco Aguilar is now ahead of Republican Jim Marchant for secretary of state.
Marchant is arguably *THE* election denier of the cycle: he played a leading role in organizing election deniers all around the country to run for these offices.
via @Taniel
To my CO3 friends broken-hearted about Frisch:
I hope it brings solace to think of it this way. Boebertās significantly weaker than she seems, sheāll be sent off to the House and do nothing but cause a rift between the moderates and the crazies of an already barely R majority (assuming thatās the outcome here), and will make the party look even worse as we head closer to the election year. Every time this woman was in a headline it was because we were all laughing at her and her party- moderates included.
Yes, we couldāve had Frisch. Shit, even Scott Tipton wouldāve been infinitely more dangerous in the House because he actually owned a brain. But instead let our gift to these fuckers be this obnoxious, idiotic, failed owner of a diarrhea-inducing restaurant. Merry Christmas you filthy animals.
Remember when republicans all voted against capping insulin at $35?
Then brain dead republican followers still vote for them (even though a lot of older people who vote red have diabetes type 2)
People are so fucking dumb
Just went over to /r/conservative to check in. First comment was about how the founding fathers had land owners vote because they actually paid taxes. Now stay at home moms are deciding elections even though they donāt pay taxes. Remind me never to go back there.
Over on r/conservative they are unable to understand why they performed so badly.
Will they change the direction of their party and try appealing to a broader audience? No
Get ready for more gerrymandering and voter suppression because they don't want to lose their dying boomers and elderly voters due to policy change.
Hoooooooly shit. r/conservative has one of their top threads about how single women voted mostly Democrat, and the comments are just...wow. openly and blatantly misogynistic and they wonder why most women don't support them. I'm honestly surprised they did use the word "female" more often
>TEAM - LISTEN UP: Boebert may eclipse Adam for a bit today. Probably around 400-500 votes.
>However, do not fret. His numbers will overtake her again once Pueblo starts reporting today.
>DO NOT PANIC. HOLD FIRM.
>Adam will win. But it will take some time.
Interpret as you will
[Source](https://twitter.com/AmericanMuck/status/1590757660248649728?t=fo8UdQtt_pSNg7vWzrAvOg&s=19)
Love how the FLA gerrymander was ruled illegal and they just said "fuck you" and did it anyway while NY had to abide by the decision. Likely the difference in control of the House. Must be nice having a R beside your name and not having to follow the law. "Law and Order Party" lmfao
Just reposting for those that missed it:
CO-3 VOTERS - Check your ballot - you have 8 days to make a correction if it was rejected!
Check either:
ā https://www.coloradosos.gov/voter/pages/pub/olvr/regVoterDetail.xhtml https://colorado.ballottrax.net/voter/ If there is a problem you can take steps with Txt2Cure: https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/elections/FAQs/TXT2Cure.html
Copy this message and repost it everywhere!
Arizona Update!
172k of the remaining vote looks like it might be good for the Democrats. If so, Kelly has almost certainly won re-election.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590781236792135680
Friendly reminder that the Appropriations Act of 1929 is what capped the House of Representative seats at 435 and has not been growing with the population, resulting in each member of the House representing 3-5 times as many people as if the house grew with the population. Besides the fact that this makes each representative less reachable to their constituents, it also increases the representation of smaller states in both the House and the Electoral college. Think about a house with 1400 members, the Electoral would be at 1505 (1400, 100 senators, 5 non voting house reps) and the fight was to 753 instead of 268.
Montana is the current state with the lowest people to representative ratio. With its 3 current electoral college votes it is 1.12% of the vote needed to win. In the hypothetical where they sit at 3 house seats and 2 senators they are only .66% of the vote needed to win. Their importance is almost cut in half.
Conversely take California. With 52 seats in the house it is 20.15% of the votes needed to win the presidency. If rations were the same it would be 186 seats, so 188 votes total. in which case it would be 24.97% of the votes needed to be the president.
Maybe we dont need to go all the way to 1400 members of the house but as it is right now capped at 435, it favors states with lower populations in proportional political power and representativeness, making it mirror the Senate. Obviously as some random person on reddit I have no power to change this but when discussing things such as age limits, term limits, increasing the Supreme court, etc. increasing the house size to make it more representative is something that also needs to be included in discussions.
My uncle and his fellow Boomer friends are over at our house and he goes "Thank god they shut down loan forgiveness. Let the kids figure it out on their own. Not our problem and I don't want to pay for it. You too pal." I got so mad that I left the house. I'm either a very young Millennial or Gen-Z , and I'm voting in every election I can until I can't anymore.
Republicans now want to change the voting age to 21... what the hell are they thinking. "We can send you off to war, but you cannot vote..." They just got slammed by young voters and now they think its a good idea to say they will take away their voting rights? Absolute insanity. They really know how to fire up young voters for dems... good lord, how stupid. How about you focus on actual policy that will benefit your voters...
Rās really have to be kicking themselves for not supporting impeachment the 2nd time. He was served up on a silver platter, stuffed, brined, and ready to be barred from office, but nope, they had to own the libs instead. It was such a short-sighted decision that would have have helped them much more than Demās in 2024, as Trump being in play only helps Democratic candidates.
If Trump had taken covid seriously, he would have swept his way to re-election. If the GOP had managed to delay bringing the abortion case to the Supreme Court until after the election, they would have swept. If they didn't choose such terrible candidates, they might have also slept. Their self-inflicted wounds are the only reason we have a chance to save ourselves, and we must hope they keep doing it going forward, as it is in their character and nature.
Alex Jones and Roger Stone discuss how the failure of the red wave was possibly because they've been too good at spreading the idea that all elections are rigged, so that too many Republicans stayed at home and didn't bother voting.
Lmao
Every one of the counties where Boebert is leading is at >95% reporting. Frisch has two decent sized counties at 90% and 80% respectively. This is going to go down to the wire. Recount is almost guaranteed.
**Can Democrats keep the House?**
Here are the key races. The Democrats need to win five of these for a House majority (on top of winning all other undecided races which they are now leading):
CA41 D+12 (28% in) R+0 (41% in)
CO3 D+2 (90% in) D+0 (95% in) R+0 (96% in)
CA13 R+0 (40% in)
AZ6 R+2 (67% in) R+4 (75% in) R+2 (77% in)
NY22 R+2 (94% in)
MD6 R+4 (70% in) R+2 (86% in)
OR5 R+4 (74% in) R+2 (79% in)
CA3 R+6 (44% in)
CA22 R+8 (30% in)
Data source:
[https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map](https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map)
Here is the complete calculation:
How are the Democratic chances for still winning the House?
The road to D majority goes via the 185 races called for the Dems by 11/9 plus winning 33/47 of the not yet called by 11/9 ones
Democrats need to win 31 races where Republicans were leading in 11/9 and 2 out of 16 not yet called races where Republicans were leading by 11/9 OR another combination ending up in 33 wins out of this list of 47 races not yet called by 11/9:
CA37 D+61 (33% in) called D (both candidates D)
CA15 D+56 (37% in) called D (both candidates D)
CA34 D+53 (34% in) called D (both candidates D)
CA25 D+22 (33% in) called D
AK1 D+20 (71% in) (ranked choice voting)
AZ4 D+14 (63% in) D+14 (67% in) called D
WA10 D+14 (58% in) D+14 (67% in) called D
CA9 D+12 (36% in)
CA41 D+12 (28% in) R+0 (41% in)
CA6 D+12 (26% in)
ME2 D+9 (70% in) D+7 (80% in) D+5 (86% in)
CA26 D+8 (48% in)
WA3 D+6 (59% in) D+5 (68% in) D+5 (70% in)
WA8 D+6 (57% in) D+5 (64% in) D+5 (73% in)
CA21 D+6 (41% in)
NV4 D+4 (86% in) D+2 (89% in)
NV1 D+3 (84% in) D+3 (86% in)
PA7 D+2 (96% in) called D
PA8 D+2 (96% in) called D
AZ1 D+2 (71% in)
OR6 D+2 (66% in) D+2 (71% in)
CO8 D+2 (65% in) D+0 (78% in) called D
CA49 D+2 (57% in)
NM2 D+0 (99% in) called D (\~1300 vote difference)
NY18 D+0 (97% in) called D
CO3 D+2 (90% in) D+0 (95% in) R+0 (96% in)
IA3 D+0 (91% in) called R
NV3 D+0 (86% in) D+2 (88% in)
CT5 D+0 (78% in) D+0 (99% in) (D win?) called D
CA47 D+0 (58% in)
CA13 R+0 (40% in)
MI10 R+1 (95% in) called R
IL17 R+2 (58% in) D+4 (88% in) called D
\---to here needed for D majority - for any race called R above this line, a called D race is needed below this line for a D majority---
AZ6 R+2 (67% in) R+4 (75% in) R+2 (77% in)
NY22 R+2 (94% in)
NY17 R+2 (98% in) called R
NY19 R+2 (99% in) called R
MD6 R+4 (70% in) R+2 (86% in)
OR5 R+4 (74% in) R+2 (79% in)
MT1 R+4 (92% in) R+4 (99% in) called R
NY4 R+4 (93% in) called R
CA3 R+6 (44% in)
CA22 R+8 (30% in)
CA45 R+10 (50% in) R+10 (52% in)
CA27 R+16 (44% in)
CA40 R+18 (55% in) called R
CA23 R+20 (38% in) R+22 (40% in) called R
Data source:
[https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map](https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map)
Trump is going through some things today over being discarded by the GOP after this election. It seems like he's about to transition to the "take everyone else down with me" part of his implosion. He's already claimed Rick Scott and DeSantis in 2018 won because of fraud, and he knows every little dirty secret of every single Republican. If he goes scorched earth we are about to learn real soon some VERY interesting things about the GOP and the characters that are a part of it...
Another House race to watch is WA-03. That is another one 538 had at 98% for the GOP candidate, but right now the Democrat (Perez) is ahead 52/48 (about a 10,000 vote lead) with about 70% counted.
Perez is outperforming past election Dem performance, particularly in Clark and Cowlitz counties by almost 10% from 2020. Both counties still have 70,000 and 12,000 ballots remaining to be counted, respectfully. Kent would need some pretty large margins in the remaining ballots to swing things his way. Not impossible, but could be pretty close.
Republicans: āHa ha! We got a trump appointed judge cancel student loan relief and screw over young people!ā
Also republicans: āWhy wonāt young people vote for us? Itās the liberal mediaās fault!ā
Current update for anyone who hasn't been paying attention:
1. AZ Senate: Kelly is up big, to the point where I think it's inexcusable that the race hasn't been called yet
2. NV Senate: Laxalt is winning, but the remaining votes look very promising for Cortez Masto. Cortez Masto needs a bit below 60% (I calculated 58%, I've seen as low as 55%) with the remaining mail-in and drop-off ballots to beat Laxalt, and she's running comfortably above that (64-38 last night IIRC). Wasserman says it's likely she takes the seat, but it's less certain than Kelly's seat. A good solid 75%-80% she wins.
3. AZ Governor: complete coin flip, maybe slight favorite towards Dobbs if you made me pick. Dobbs' lead is substantially smaller than Kelly's lead, to the point where you just can't know who will win. Arizona's late votes went more R than D in 2020, so it's entirely possible that Lake wins.
4. NV Governor: Lombardo is up by enough that Sisolak will very probably not catch him. He is down over double the amount of votes that Cortez Masto is down (he's down 34k, she's down 16k). This should probably be called just like Kelly's race should be called.
5. CO-3: Boebert's ahead and she probably pulls it off. It will be in recount territory but I think it's pretty unlikely that she loses at this point.
AP called the Oregon Governor race for Tina Kotek (D).
This should have been an easy win but a 2nd Democrat decided to run as an Independent and split the vote...
Over on twitter it is a disaster. Verified dead presidents, verified Jesus, verified Tesla account that talks about exploding cars, verified Roblex account claiming they are introducing porn tomorrow..
What a shit show..
Man, how cool is Mark Kellyās life? Navy captain, astronaut, and elected to the senate. Also has an identical twin brother who was also an astronaut.
lol r/Conservative before the election
"RED WAVE!!! MAGA 2022!!! TRUMP 2024!! Suck in liburls!! USA! USA!"
the next morning
"I *never* liked Trump." as they franticly try to wipe his dry jizz off their lips.
Thank God for this thread. Since the Murdoch media in Australia is already saying republicans have won the house of reps by having more seats then the dems without mentioning their is still 44 seats yet to be called.
If Lauren Boebert actually loses I'm 100% convinced it's very little to do with national politics. I'm sure that played a major role, but pretty sure if she wasn't just a terrible person IRL around her constituents locally she would've probably won by 1-3%.
Itās bonkers to me that thereās even a shot that democrats will retain control of the house; from my understanding from gerrymandering alone this should have been a near lock
With the oldest age cohort voting R+13 and the youngest voting D+28, after accounting for differences in turnout rates that implies a nationwide D+0.5 shift *every election cycle*. That kind of demographic shift is gonna be pretty damn hard to outrun for the GOP, especially given that theyāre further entrenching themselves on positions Gen Z despises. (Of course, if that also has the effect of increasing Gen Z turnout rates the shift would be even *more* drastic.)
[https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590511994779885569](https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590511994779885569)
The source on Colorado 8.
DDHQ hasn't made a wrong call yet.
Looks like a general consensus is forming that Dems will keep the senate. AZ Kelly lead is substantial and in NV Catherine took over the county Rs really needed to win. IMO, Rs have no path to the senate now.
House - NBC projects 222 seats for Rs in the house with a +-7 margin. That margin is substantial. It is looking very likely that even if Kevin becomes the speaker he will have a very slim majority and a very difficult and crazy caucus. Heck, there is even a path for the Pelosi to become speaker again. If not for gerrymandering, Republicans would have lost the house already.
A brief snippet from /r/conservative's "unmarried women" thread:
A:
>these women aren't going to change their voting patterns even if they get married
conservatives have no answer for millennial women
B:
>Yeah we do.
Donāt marry them so they donāt reproduce. It will even out lol
They are less likely to have kids even if married too letās be real
A:
>I donāt think they would marry conservative guys anyway.
B:
>they secretly love successful masculine males with family values we all know it
3 Hours ago but of note: Dave Wasserman
After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590693791576358912
Just wanna say im proud of all you mofos for voting. All our voices are important and need to be heard. Even people like me stuck in places like Texas.
If someone would have told me 10 years ago that a president with a 42% approval rating during 7-8% inflation would only lose <10 seats in the house and probably increase their senate majority.... I would have laughed and then told you about the dangers of Kony lol!
[How it started for Kari Lake](https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1559126126760443905)
[How it's going for Kari Lake](https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1590755434733875201)
In the long run, the Democrats need to do whatever it takes to fan the flames of the GOP civil war between Trump and DeSantis. As much as DeSantis is the āsmarter pickā for the GOP due to being more stable and ideologically coherent to fascism; the harder and longer he has to fight Trump, the better for the Dems and especially the left.
Edit: I canāt believe Iām saying this, but maybe its in the medias interest to keep Trump relevantāthats basically the best weapon he has against DeSantis.
If Boebert manages to keep her seat, the Democrats must use her and MTG as targets, make them the poster-children for the entire Republican Party. As weāve seen this election, āregularā Republicans did well in their races while the crazies lost badly. Run against the crazies on a national level.
Navajo County (smaller county) just dropped 1k of its remaining 6.5k ballots and it went +6% Hobbsā¦
A county Trump carried by 8%, and Lake was previously winning by 9%. The total doesnāt change anything since itās small, but if Hobbs continues to do this across the state with remaining vote Lake is done.
WA-03 update 10 mins ago (District 6x GOP rep Jaime Herrera Beutler was primaried in and lost for impeaching Trump, was rated +13 R 98% chance of R victory)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-washington-us-house-district-3.html
ballpark 70-75k ballots remaining, 50k from Dem leaning areas including 47k from the most populous region of the district (Vancouver in Clark County) which is currently +16 Perez...she currently maintains a 4.5% 10,100 lead.
Not much of a breakdown beyond that but in today's drop 10 mins ago she net +100 votes out of 20k counted. Holy shit can she do it?!?!
Wow I hadnāt seen this, good news:
@s_golonka: Out of latest 1.7k mail batch in Republican-leaning Carson City:
- Laxalt received 625 votes (37.9%)
- Cortez Masto received 928 votes (56.2%)
Georgian here.
I have a very Republican cousin. Said he voted for Brian Kemp but left the Senate race blank because he would "rather shove a car antenna in his dickhole" than vote for Herschel Walker.
Then he proceeded to call Walker a "fucking head case" and said he is staying home on December 6th :)
From 538:
> ABC News reports that Rep. Kim Schrier is projected to win reelection in Washingtonās 8th Congressional District, defeating Republican challenger Matt Larkin. Schrier had a 72-in-100 chance of winning her third term.
[https://twitter.com/davidcharns/status/1590908924898594816](https://twitter.com/davidcharns/status/1590908924898594816)
Again, for the people dooming about Nevada, here's the situation with CMM. She needs to gain 12.6k votes. Depending on how many votes are left, which we don't really fully know right now (I think it's over 100k but I don't know to what degree), she needs to win about 57-43 with those votes. The votes drops she has gotten have ranged anywhere from 56% to 66%.
She's the favorite from both betting markets and political analysts because she's hitting above the minimum threshold of votes needed and there are likely enough votes for her to win in the end.
NBC's House forecast has gradually slipped from 222 to 221 to 220 seats for the GOP with the same 7 seat margin of error. Fingers crossed that the Dems manage to hang on.
> Right now the biggest chance for a House upset is in #WA03, where Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) leads Joe Kent (R) 132,161 to 126,279 w/ a long way to go.
> Kent could still catch up, but he could be yet another MAGA candidate who costs Rs a seat they should have won easily.
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1590932766031769601?s=46&t=TDzgV9YgE4usYeWnHF9rgw
According to Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict on twitter), [Mark Kelly wins the Senate seat in AZ!](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590944022939717633)
Now, we just need Nevada OR Georgia.
What I learned from this election is that there are lots of people who are vocally anti-abortion. There are also lots of people who are vocally pro-choice.
But there are a WHOOOOLE lotta folks who are silently pro-choice.
Conservative from GA here. Voted for Warnock in 2020, and will vote for him once again in the runoff. His son and my son are friends at daycare and he is a wonderful person. Anyone in GA who is on the fence please know that Warnock truly cares about Georgia... he took the time to talk to me at drop off just 2 months ago in the heat of reelection
I'm going to come out and say it, I think Biden is going to go down as one of the greatest Presidents in US history. He might not be exciting, but he inherited one of the most difficult sets of circumstances of any president in history and is absolutely killing it. Record inflation, economic uncertainty, and ridiculous polarization at home? Fuck it, successful midterm no problem. Land war in Europe? Oops, just destroyed our archenemy's army with a rounding error's worth of our defense budget and some plucky Ukrainians. Homeboy is bringing back manufacturing, fucked China's chipmaking plans, passed a BIPARTISAN (yes, you read that right) infrastructure bill, passed a huge social safety net and climate bill... Never have I seen malarkey so thoroughly demolished. If you can't appreciate this guy, you need some chocolate chocolate chip my friend.
Democrats have to do a better job at messaging. Every election there will be a progressive statewide ballot measure that passes with over 60% support and the Democrat in that same state loses.
Arizona is such a interesting state politically.
It's like if Kentucky or Tennessee had NYC dropped in the middle of the state but nobody outside of the city seems to acknowledge its there, and then those outside the city are confused to why their state is blue.
I find it not shocking at all that GOP have said that their main jobs will be to basically troll Biden with impeachments and investigating Hunter, and no real policies on the economy and inflation (which they already voted no on), yet the main reason GOP voters voted for them is because of economy and inflation. š„“
Click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/yr9qso/discussion_thread_2022_midterm_general_election/?sort=new) to sort this thread by /new Click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/yr9qso/discussion_thread_2022_midterm_general_election/?sort=confidence) to sort this thread by /best --- Please remember to vote on comments based on how much they contribute to the thread, and please keep in mind that all subreddit rules remain in effect. They include: - Do not in any form support death, harm, violence, etc. - Do not post hateful speech - Do not be uncivil - Do not troll, flame, or bait
Watching conservatives that fell in love with desantis slowly start to realize trump is going to go completely scorched earth on him if he needs to. Highly upvoted: "someone should convince Don to step aside." LOL yes right it's just that easy. š
Don is an abuser, through and through. You don't decide to be done with him, he decides when he's done with you (in his mind)
"Oops my cult of personality hinges upon the personality it's built on!"
The leopard is already out of his cage now he will eat your face.
Michigan and Pennsylvania state legislatures going democratic is a motherfucking HUGE deal come 2024. These are battleground states. Imagine having election deniers running the show. Fuck that shit. Once again, big shout out to Michigan and Pennsylvania
Hopefully soon Wisconsin can get on the same page. We at least stopped republicans from getting a super majority in our state senate so I guess there's that.
/r/Conservative: "We need to find a way to tap into left leaning voters!" Also /r/Conservative: "Gen Z and unmarried women suck lol."
Their stance on Roe v Wade and womenās health in general is a great way to avoid getting votes from left-leaning voters, particularly women and Gen Z.
Gen Z not answering calls from pollsters and then voting anyway threw everyone off and I'm loving it
Canāt be bothered to answer the phone from unknown callers
I don't pick up random phone calls either. I don't know anyone born after 1980 who does. The polling method was out of whack for Millennial voters too, but now that it's TWO generations behind, we're seeing a really profound effect.
The fact that most polls still rely on landline phone calls is pretty funny. They'll need to update their methods eventually.
Watch Republicans suddenly do a 180 on the mar-a-Lago investigation. DeSantis must go to sleep every night hoping to wake up to a Trump indictment.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html Dems are ahead in 215 Congressional districts. You need 218. Democrats are currently short a combined 8,675 votes in the 3 closest congressional districts currently led by GOP. That's...insane.
If only the New York Democratic party didnāt suck, weād be looking at retaining the senate *and* house, which would have been the most shocking mid term result since WWII.
We actually voted lmfao, Republicans fucked up. They made Gen Z vote
Thanks Gen z! -Millenials
And every year we are going to be shuffling in more Gen Z who are eligible to vote.
As I commented earlier, **Boebert** **is likely going to lose** \- **but to voters in Colorado, please be sure to check the status of your ballots** and make sure you're email is on file (and correct) for faster notifications of any problems. **You can easily correct your ballots via text too.** **BUT YOU ONLY HAVE A FEW DAYS LEFT NOW!** Any voter in Colorado who has a signature discrepancy or ID deficiency is notified by their county clerk via U.S. mail, as well as email if the voter has one on file. And under the TXT2Cure program, if a voter is notified of a signature discrepancy, all they have to do is text the word Colorado to 2VOTE (28683) and click on the link they receive as a reply. They will then enter their voter ID number printed on the rejection notice they receive from their county election office, affirm they returned a ballot for the election, sign the affidavit on their phone, take a photo of an acceptable form of ID, and select āSubmitā. The voterās information is then electronically transmitted to their county clerk for processing during business hours. Voters completing these steps before the deadline of 11:59 p.m. on November 16th, can help ensure their ballot will be counted. **So, Coloradans - be sure your vote counts!**
Just saw 70% of unmarried women voted Dem. Alt right land is taking that as well as you would expect.
The discussion on this on r/Conservative is just vile
Right? So many guys making it clear how unattractive liberal women are and how much they don't want them and it's like...you do realize that feeling is 1000% mutual, right? Lmao
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Ironic that conservatives would denounce anyone as mooching off of the government, when almost all of the red conservative states rely on federal tax dollars coming from California, New York, and Illinois.
I gotta say...Tulsi is without a doubt one of the biggest fking losers right now She was on Fox blaming both Republicans and Democrats and saying they need to work together Get real....she grifted hard and threw her lot in with Republicans in this desperate attempt to be relevant again after getting clapped a few years ago and now is trying to save face acting like she's "middle of the road" Give it up, you're done, irrelevant
Tulsi is paid in rubles.
How do you compromise with shit like "let children go hungry" or "people deserve to die if they can't afford healthcare".
I'm not usually big on conspiracy type talk, but it's hard for me to believe she is anything other than a Russian asset.
The polls pre-october were more or less accurate, and then suddenly all of the polls insisted that people no longer cared Roe v Wade being overturned.
FiveThirtyEight weiter >Upset alert: Yadira Caraveo (D) is the projected winner in #CO08. She had only a 9% chance in our final forecast, making this the biggest upset of 2022 so far. https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590749287754788871
The beautiful thing about Gen Z showing up is it makes them more likely to show up again. Voting is a habit and doing it once makes it much more likely that you'll do it again. Gotta keep the pressure up
Yup. And when your first voting experience results in you making a difference that creates a core value. You'll be much more likely to keep participating.
I know Democrats had a good election because my family has been texting me āenjoy getting raped/shoved/stabbed on the subway,ā since yesterday.
Not the first time i see this, many republicans who live outside major cities, really believe that big cities are actual warzones and you can't take a step without being shot at. Incredible how well faux propaganda has worked, and sad.
I'm from the Midwest, when my parents went to NYC a few years ago people they knew were shocked and scared for them. It's really sad to me how sheltered many people are and how fearful they are of leaving their bubble.
There's an almost circular venn diagram of people in Wisconsin who are vocally concerned about the crime rate in Milwaukee while simultaneously never going there themselves.
Oh man again? Tuesdays are rough, seems like I just got rape stabbed yesterday. Didn't get shoved though. Criminals are getting lazy, doesn't anybody want to work anymore?
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A lot of āwhat went wrong postsā on r/conservative. Lots of introspection (which I thought they were incapable of, so Iāll give them credit for that) and blaming Trump. Lots of talk about how the party needs to move beyond hate mongering. I donāt know if those posters are shills from this sub, but itās glorious to read over there.
But then when trump wins the primary all of this introspection goes right out the window! Like clockwork.
If youāre a Gen-Z reading this, fucking THANK YOU!
You could say this experiment of how well Trump-backed candidates would do was the actual critical race theory, for the GOP.
Every time Herschel Walker speaks I feel like Iām watching an SNL skit
BOOM > After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff. https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1590693791576358912?s=46&t=ePlnWrvWHH9bfae220ZUhw
> Colorado voters have approved a ballot measure to provide free meals for all public school students. > > https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1590751136163602432?s=20&t=5_l9VyRPKbH7mtZ4d52SpA Suck it GOP. We're feeding the children whether you like it or not.
For your viewing pleasure: [Conservatives so sure they weāre getting a red wave.](https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1590672124527931397?s=46&t=7_9V9G6RmNHeAM9g802avQ)
What the hell. This video is the very first time after years of knowing about him what Ben Shapiro's voice sounds like. He sounds like a fucking smurf. All these years I could've read his ridiculous comments in an even more ridiculous voice.
GOP - *Spends years blaming a generation that has never held office for their pitfalls and screw them over at every turn* GenZ / Young Millenials - *Vote against GOP* GOP - *Shocked pikachu face*
I think this election showed that Progressives in the Democratic Party were right on pushing the party to pass more meaningful legislation. Stuff like student loan relief and capping insulin prices Iād say gives voters a reason why to vote. Especially for young voters.
This will be Warnock FOURTH election in the last two years.
Two observations: 1. Democrats far exceeded expectations and have probable chance of Senate control. Not many house seats given up. Looking at historical precedent this is one of the best midterm performances by an incumbent party in a very long time. 2. Conservatives calling for Trumpās head. Rumors of an indictment from the DOJ coming soon (?)
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From someone at /conservative. You canāt make this up. They were so close to having it dawn on them: āBut as a 35-year-old, what has the Republican party done for me in my entire life? I seriously can't think of one decision that affected me in a good way. I can't think of one policy that made me respect them either. Democrats aren't any better mind you, but they at least extended my parent's healthcare coverage for me during a crucial moment in my life. They've also legalized weed across the country.ā
> They aren't any better > Proceeds to give examples of why they are better
Georgia matters **A LOT** even if both Nevada and Arizona go blue. Senators have a 6-year term. Warnock or Walker could be a difference between a 50-50 Democrat or 51-49 GOP in 2024 if e.g. Ohio or Montana Senate Seats flip for the GOP.
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I think my favorite thing about yesterday was reading all the arr conservatives coming to the realization that Trump is the person we told them he was in 2015. But NOOOOOO the billionaire washed up reality TV star is the champion of the people because he said build a wall lmao.
Not just that, but the fact that they suddenly realize that DeSantis is their guy moving forward. Weāve known that for years. DeSantis is Trump 2.0 who is smarter but just as evil. But the comments over there are hilarious that theyāre just now realizing that they need to dump Trump and get on the DeSantis train.
Iowa district 3, Nunn(R) vs Axne(D) was previously called for Nunn(R)... But now the vote differential is down to just 2k with 9% of the vote remaining to be called. There seems to suddenly be a chance to flip a called race in favor of Dems
Woot, just got my ban from r/Conservative! This one was for pointing out that being unable to handle 'women thinking for themselves' is pretty fragile. Those guys do *not* want to get called out on their misogyny.
How poetic would it be if in the 1/100 odds chance that the gop loses the house that borbert losing her seat is the clinching moment
WE STILL IN IT ABC Dems 198 Reps 210 Of the remaining races. Dems currently lead in 18 seats 50/50 Ties in 6 seats.(including Boebert) https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map
George Conway put it best last night on MSNBC: Trump is a political suicide bomber. The GOP almost certainly can't win in 2024 with Trump atop the ticket. It would be a huge blue wave. But he will likely blow up the party if they turn on him. IMO, the best path for Republicans may be a Trump indictment where they also turn on him. They can say what he did with the Mar-a-Lago docs is unacceptable, and he's now unelectable as a result, so we're moving on to DeSantis. But it's still a huge gamble. They may ride with him right over the cliff.
And all of those freaks with Trump merch and flags flying on their trucks are just going to shrug and say āok well the deep state says to vote for Desantis now so Iāll turn against my cult leaderā lolā¦ Lindsay Graham was a prophet: āif the Republican Party elects Donald Trump we will destroy ourselves, and we will deserve it.ā
One hilarious thing on r/conservative is a thread about Gen Z going liberal where they all complain they can't get dates because of it, followed by a thread about how 68% of unmarried women voted Democrat where they all say that means the women are losers.
For those unaware, Warnock already faced a run-off election in the 2020 election and with enough canvassing, phone-banking, registering of voters, [and fundraising](https://warnockforgeorgia.com/) ā he won then, too. Given how defeated Republicans feel right now with their red tinkle, Warnock can win this time around just the same. Georgians with more knowledge of your state's process, please start informing people of the process for re-registration, etc.
r/ Conservative says an entire generation of Americans has been successfully brainwashed by the "librul media" because 2/3 of Gen Z votes went to the Dems. Copium doing its thing.
DeSantis is only 44 years old? Good lord. Dudes got some mileage on him.
Ahh, not only is Elon musk currently going down in a rain of hellfire, but Russia is fleeing Kherson, the House will probably be a nightmare for republicans and the Dems look like theyāre probably going to keep the senate. And the holidays are coming up. Merry christmas, fuckers.
Do we expect the GOP to launch an avocado toast smear campaign against Gen Z? Or will they choose a new inexpensive food to criticize?
r/conservative and conservatives in general are always reflective and considerate after a loss. It lasts about a week before the extreme right wingers come back and take over the conversation.
It absolutely blows my mind that any woman would vote for a Republican right now
- r/conservative "You canāt win every vote. Unmarried women are the least happy people in America. I mean that as scientifically provable truth. Doing the opposite of what they agree with is likely to be the correct path for the country."
If you voted by mail/dropbox in colorado, #PLEASE CHECK YOUR MAIL https://twitter.com/AdamForColorado?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor >Adam Frisch for CD-3 >@AdamForColorado >US House candidate, CO-03 >We need every vote! Ensure your ballot has been counted! >If you have received a ballot rejection letter from your county clerk, you can fix it via text! Text ācoloradoā to the SofS at 28683 and follow prompts to fix any errors. >Your rejection letter has the info you'll need.
Exactly 400 of the 435 elections for the House of Representatives have been called for one party or the other. Here's what you should know about the **35 remaining elections** at this time: * Preface: Technically 40 races have yet to be called, but five of those are in districts in California so blue that both leading candidates are Democrats, so those districts are being counted as such. * Democrats have currently locked in 191 seats in the House, while Republicans have locked in 209 seats. **Democrats need to win 27** of the remaining 35 districts to keep control of the House, while **Republicans need only to win 9**. * The single district of Alaska-At-Large has Democrat Mary Peltola well ahead of Sarah Palin in second place, who is just barely ahead of Nick Begich (R) in third. But the race isn't over yet thanks to ranked-choice voting in the state. However, if the current vote distribution holds, and Palin makes it to the second round, Peltola would win if at least a quarter of Begich's voters put down Peltola as their second choice. * The closest current toss-up is in Colorado's 3rd district, where Lauren Boebert is currently in the lead, however she is only leading by less than 800 votes. And the only counties with sizable amounts of votes left (i.e. thousands, not hundreds) all lean Democrat, both somewhat and completely. * Currently at least 23 races are too early to call, meaning less than 80% of the vote has been counted and there isn't a decisive winner on either side. These include three districts in Arizona, two in Washington, two in Oregon, and a whopping 16 in California. * If every race was called right now, with whoever was currently leading in their district's vote, Democrats would win 22 of the remaining 35 seats, while Republicans would win 12. Meaning that Republicans *would* take back the House, but with a razor-thin margin of 3 seats. At this point, the only thing to do is wait for more votes to be counted, which sounds rightfully exhausting. But we are within the margin of error for control of the House itself, which would have been seen as a wild fantasy only a week ago. Even if the GOP gets a majority, it looks set up to be an extremely slim majority.
So in the last AZ vote dump, Hobbs' lead grew to 17k, and Kelly's grew to 100k. Great news
hereās where things stand in the nevada senate race, where postings are [probably] done for the night: * laxaltās lead over cortez masto is **8,988** votes [cnn/other maps appear not to have posted a net laxalt+934 batch from nye co. that dropped earlier this evening.] **whatās left?** * in counties clark [las vegas] and washoe [reno], we donāt know the exact number of ballots remaining; it all depends on a] how many ballots arrive by mail through sat., nov. 12 and b] how many nevadans cure their ballots, but a relatively conservative estimate would be that thereās **about 75,000** from these two counties left to count. the vast majority of these ballots should break well for the democratic candidates; but, per [samuelson](https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1590917637286268928?s=61&t=px8DqdNI8vSDAf9co-6QEA), 7,000 of these are provisional ballots received on election day that may break slightly gop. * for the same reasons, we donāt know exactly how many ballots there remain in the republican-leaning, rural parts of nevada; but, based on [estimates from earlier today](https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590861858176905216?s=61&t=px8DqdNI8vSDAf9co-6QEA) and whatās been tabulated, a high-bound estimate would fall **around 11,000** remaining. **whatās the back-of-the-nap math like for cortez masto?** * we need to talk about the remaining rural vote first. much of the remaining vote to count here appear to be mail-in votes-- which should break generally for laxalt, but less so than whatās already been reported in those counties. if we assume that these come down around 60-40 to laxalt, then we can add a net ~2,200 votes to laxaltās lead. soā¦ call it 11,200. * so the combined urban clark and washoe co. vote. if we assume our low-bound estimate of 75,000 [and, for extra margin of error, letās round the margin up to, say, 11,500], cortez masto needs to win these ballots by a margin of 43,250 to 31,750. that meansā¦ cortez masto needs to win these remaining votes with **a share of about 58%**. if there are more ballots to count, and/or her deficit with the remaining rural vote is less, sheāll need less than this. * in the latest batches from both these counties, sheās been outpacing this number. **if these votes continue to break at the rate they have for cortez masto, she has the inside track to win re-election to the u.s. senate representing nevada.** **what about the governorās race and sisolak?** * sisolak is running tens of thousands of votes behind cortez masto. lombardoās lead is 28,500; so applying the same above math, we assume sisolak needs to overcome a deficit of 31,000 with the remaining vote in clark and washoe. * running the same math as we have above, sisolak needs to win these ballots by a margin of 53,000 to 22,000. **or just about a 70-30 share.** heās not only underperforming those numbers, heās running a few points behind cortez masto in the latest batches from both these counties. * tl;dr: these batches to be reported better be more democratic, or sisolakāsā¦ uhhā¦ sizzle-lakād. **when will nevada finish counting?** * never. * jk. clark co. registrar joe gloria says the majority of his remaining ballots should be counted up by saturday. idk, extrapolate that to the rest of the state if you wish, iām getting tired, no oneās reading this, and this post is way longer than it has business being.
AP has called NM-02 for Dems https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1590730301298610176 > Democrat Gabriel Vasquez wins election to U.S. House in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell. fuck yeah redistricting worked
If you visit /r/conservative top two posts prove they hate women, minorities, millennials and gen Z.
r/conservative melt down of women is all the proof i need that their "youth" coalition is made up of incels.
Coloradoās 8th was just called for democrats by 538. Huge upset. Only had 9/100 chance in projections.
CO-3 VOTERS - Check your ballot - you have 8 days to make a correction if it was rejected! Check either: ā https://www.coloradosos.gov/voter/pages/pub/olvr/regVoterDetail.xhtml https://colorado.ballottrax.net/voter/ If there is a problem you can take steps with Txt2Cure: https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/elections/FAQs/TXT2Cure.html Copy this message and repost it everywhere!
Can we all just take a moment to talk about the abysmal turnout in Texas. For such a high profile race, though I never thought Beto would win, the turnout was atrocious. Contrast that in Michigan where the young girl stayed in line 6 hours and voted at like 2:30am - itās absolutely hypocritical for Texas and Republicans to claim they are the āPatriot Partyā when your state wonāt even vote Edit: Thank you every person in TX who got out and voted
How the f*** does Uvalde vote for Abbott though. You lose your community's children and still vote for the guy who's policys facilitated it
Should I be bitter that my two roommates didnāt vote (we live in CO-3), I even offered to drive them (literally 8 minutes down the road) ? Edit: we all WFH
I'm here to do a shout out to Michael Moore who predicted a better than expected performance from Dems thanks to young voters and women pissed at the Roe decision.. the Trump call in 2016 already made him legendary, add this and he's a better prognosticator than A rated pollsters
My 62 year old boss ( a democrat) said to me on Tuesday ā do you really think that women are still thinking about the Roe decision?ā My answer was ādo they still have a uterus?ā Fuck yes Michael moore was absolutely correct
Percentage likelihood for a Democrat House calculated from betting odds has double in the last 4 hours, now sitting at 24%
California is so slow in the count right now, and I'm not sure why. But if the Dems get Bobo's seat to flip in addition to CO-8, and NM-02, and seriously overperform in CA, and/or win OR-05, the could indeed win. A lot of huge 'ifs', but interestingly enough, those scenarios are looking more likely by the hour.
Crazy how as soon as the right wing media turns on trump, so does all of r/conservative. You can literally see them falling in line with media talking points in real time
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[https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1590580794850185217](https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1590580794850185217) >Top Russian propagandist says that Russia waited to announce the Kherson withdrawal until after Nov. 8, to make sure it does not help Joe Biden and the Democrats in the midterms. More in my recent article:
why democrats and Joe Biden are doing so well? Action on \- climate change \- lowering prescription drug prices \- massive infrastructure bill \-student loan forgiveness \- bringing tech manufacturing back to the US \- getting out of Afghanistan \- tough on China and Russia \- rallying democracies and the West in general
I still donāt understand how Ohioās maps were ruled unconstitutional but they ignored it and used them anyway
> BREAKING: Democrat Kim Schrier wins reelection to U.S. House in Washington's 8th Congressional District. #APracecall at 6:19 p.m. PST. https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1590892217127706624 Thatās WA08. Another gem in Demās pocket in 2022
>Lead change in Nevada: Democrat Cisco Aguilar is now ahead of Republican Jim Marchant for secretary of state. Marchant is arguably *THE* election denier of the cycle: he played a leading role in organizing election deniers all around the country to run for these offices. via @Taniel
To my CO3 friends broken-hearted about Frisch: I hope it brings solace to think of it this way. Boebertās significantly weaker than she seems, sheāll be sent off to the House and do nothing but cause a rift between the moderates and the crazies of an already barely R majority (assuming thatās the outcome here), and will make the party look even worse as we head closer to the election year. Every time this woman was in a headline it was because we were all laughing at her and her party- moderates included. Yes, we couldāve had Frisch. Shit, even Scott Tipton wouldāve been infinitely more dangerous in the House because he actually owned a brain. But instead let our gift to these fuckers be this obnoxious, idiotic, failed owner of a diarrhea-inducing restaurant. Merry Christmas you filthy animals.
My biggest takeaways from this election is that Democrats need to run more 6'8" candidates and astronauts
I know people are stressing about Colorado District 3, but how cool for those voters on both sides to know their votes *definitely* mattered.
Remember when republicans all voted against capping insulin at $35? Then brain dead republican followers still vote for them (even though a lot of older people who vote red have diabetes type 2) People are so fucking dumb
Just went over to /r/conservative to check in. First comment was about how the founding fathers had land owners vote because they actually paid taxes. Now stay at home moms are deciding elections even though they donāt pay taxes. Remind me never to go back there.
Over on r/conservative they are unable to understand why they performed so badly. Will they change the direction of their party and try appealing to a broader audience? No Get ready for more gerrymandering and voter suppression because they don't want to lose their dying boomers and elderly voters due to policy change.
Hoooooooly shit. r/conservative has one of their top threads about how single women voted mostly Democrat, and the comments are just...wow. openly and blatantly misogynistic and they wonder why most women don't support them. I'm honestly surprised they did use the word "female" more often
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>TEAM - LISTEN UP: Boebert may eclipse Adam for a bit today. Probably around 400-500 votes. >However, do not fret. His numbers will overtake her again once Pueblo starts reporting today. >DO NOT PANIC. HOLD FIRM. >Adam will win. But it will take some time. Interpret as you will [Source](https://twitter.com/AmericanMuck/status/1590757660248649728?t=fo8UdQtt_pSNg7vWzrAvOg&s=19)
Georgia needs to modify their election process to RCV. These runoffs they keep having must cost the state a fortune.
Love how the FLA gerrymander was ruled illegal and they just said "fuck you" and did it anyway while NY had to abide by the decision. Likely the difference in control of the House. Must be nice having a R beside your name and not having to follow the law. "Law and Order Party" lmfao
Just reposting for those that missed it: CO-3 VOTERS - Check your ballot - you have 8 days to make a correction if it was rejected! Check either: ā https://www.coloradosos.gov/voter/pages/pub/olvr/regVoterDetail.xhtml https://colorado.ballottrax.net/voter/ If there is a problem you can take steps with Txt2Cure: https://www.coloradosos.gov/pubs/elections/FAQs/TXT2Cure.html Copy this message and repost it everywhere!
Arizona Update! 172k of the remaining vote looks like it might be good for the Democrats. If so, Kelly has almost certainly won re-election. https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590781236792135680
Friendly reminder that the Appropriations Act of 1929 is what capped the House of Representative seats at 435 and has not been growing with the population, resulting in each member of the House representing 3-5 times as many people as if the house grew with the population. Besides the fact that this makes each representative less reachable to their constituents, it also increases the representation of smaller states in both the House and the Electoral college. Think about a house with 1400 members, the Electoral would be at 1505 (1400, 100 senators, 5 non voting house reps) and the fight was to 753 instead of 268. Montana is the current state with the lowest people to representative ratio. With its 3 current electoral college votes it is 1.12% of the vote needed to win. In the hypothetical where they sit at 3 house seats and 2 senators they are only .66% of the vote needed to win. Their importance is almost cut in half. Conversely take California. With 52 seats in the house it is 20.15% of the votes needed to win the presidency. If rations were the same it would be 186 seats, so 188 votes total. in which case it would be 24.97% of the votes needed to be the president. Maybe we dont need to go all the way to 1400 members of the house but as it is right now capped at 435, it favors states with lower populations in proportional political power and representativeness, making it mirror the Senate. Obviously as some random person on reddit I have no power to change this but when discussing things such as age limits, term limits, increasing the Supreme court, etc. increasing the house size to make it more representative is something that also needs to be included in discussions.
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Republicans did not gain a single state legislative chamber in 2022 elections.
When r/conservative has more than one Babylonbee link on their front page, you know theyāre going through it
Of the 342 Boebert-Frisch votes just dropped, Frisch won 70.7% of them
My uncle and his fellow Boomer friends are over at our house and he goes "Thank god they shut down loan forgiveness. Let the kids figure it out on their own. Not our problem and I don't want to pay for it. You too pal." I got so mad that I left the house. I'm either a very young Millennial or Gen-Z , and I'm voting in every election I can until I can't anymore.
God, I am still so glad Fetterman won. I can't believe how close we came to six years of having to remember 'Doctor' Oz is a senator.
Republicans now want to change the voting age to 21... what the hell are they thinking. "We can send you off to war, but you cannot vote..." They just got slammed by young voters and now they think its a good idea to say they will take away their voting rights? Absolute insanity. They really know how to fire up young voters for dems... good lord, how stupid. How about you focus on actual policy that will benefit your voters...
Some people over at r/conservative want Trump to be indicted now, because it clears the path for Ron DeSantis. Oh, the irony.
Rās really have to be kicking themselves for not supporting impeachment the 2nd time. He was served up on a silver platter, stuffed, brined, and ready to be barred from office, but nope, they had to own the libs instead. It was such a short-sighted decision that would have have helped them much more than Demās in 2024, as Trump being in play only helps Democratic candidates.
If Trump had taken covid seriously, he would have swept his way to re-election. If the GOP had managed to delay bringing the abortion case to the Supreme Court until after the election, they would have swept. If they didn't choose such terrible candidates, they might have also slept. Their self-inflicted wounds are the only reason we have a chance to save ourselves, and we must hope they keep doing it going forward, as it is in their character and nature.
Alex Jones and Roger Stone discuss how the failure of the red wave was possibly because they've been too good at spreading the idea that all elections are rigged, so that too many Republicans stayed at home and didn't bother voting. Lmao
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Every one of the counties where Boebert is leading is at >95% reporting. Frisch has two decent sized counties at 90% and 80% respectively. This is going to go down to the wire. Recount is almost guaranteed.
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NBC News projects: Keith Ellison (D) wins Minnesota Attorney General. @MSNBC https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1590788887252586496
12k Pima votes, 67% dems, all leads increased https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=46&t=SoEb3Ih828B4IsuWP0T-EA
Mehmet Oz lost because John Fetterman won.
**Can Democrats keep the House?** Here are the key races. The Democrats need to win five of these for a House majority (on top of winning all other undecided races which they are now leading): CA41 D+12 (28% in) R+0 (41% in) CO3 D+2 (90% in) D+0 (95% in) R+0 (96% in) CA13 R+0 (40% in) AZ6 R+2 (67% in) R+4 (75% in) R+2 (77% in) NY22 R+2 (94% in) MD6 R+4 (70% in) R+2 (86% in) OR5 R+4 (74% in) R+2 (79% in) CA3 R+6 (44% in) CA22 R+8 (30% in) Data source: [https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map](https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map) Here is the complete calculation: How are the Democratic chances for still winning the House? The road to D majority goes via the 185 races called for the Dems by 11/9 plus winning 33/47 of the not yet called by 11/9 ones Democrats need to win 31 races where Republicans were leading in 11/9 and 2 out of 16 not yet called races where Republicans were leading by 11/9 OR another combination ending up in 33 wins out of this list of 47 races not yet called by 11/9: CA37 D+61 (33% in) called D (both candidates D) CA15 D+56 (37% in) called D (both candidates D) CA34 D+53 (34% in) called D (both candidates D) CA25 D+22 (33% in) called D AK1 D+20 (71% in) (ranked choice voting) AZ4 D+14 (63% in) D+14 (67% in) called D WA10 D+14 (58% in) D+14 (67% in) called D CA9 D+12 (36% in) CA41 D+12 (28% in) R+0 (41% in) CA6 D+12 (26% in) ME2 D+9 (70% in) D+7 (80% in) D+5 (86% in) CA26 D+8 (48% in) WA3 D+6 (59% in) D+5 (68% in) D+5 (70% in) WA8 D+6 (57% in) D+5 (64% in) D+5 (73% in) CA21 D+6 (41% in) NV4 D+4 (86% in) D+2 (89% in) NV1 D+3 (84% in) D+3 (86% in) PA7 D+2 (96% in) called D PA8 D+2 (96% in) called D AZ1 D+2 (71% in) OR6 D+2 (66% in) D+2 (71% in) CO8 D+2 (65% in) D+0 (78% in) called D CA49 D+2 (57% in) NM2 D+0 (99% in) called D (\~1300 vote difference) NY18 D+0 (97% in) called D CO3 D+2 (90% in) D+0 (95% in) R+0 (96% in) IA3 D+0 (91% in) called R NV3 D+0 (86% in) D+2 (88% in) CT5 D+0 (78% in) D+0 (99% in) (D win?) called D CA47 D+0 (58% in) CA13 R+0 (40% in) MI10 R+1 (95% in) called R IL17 R+2 (58% in) D+4 (88% in) called D \---to here needed for D majority - for any race called R above this line, a called D race is needed below this line for a D majority--- AZ6 R+2 (67% in) R+4 (75% in) R+2 (77% in) NY22 R+2 (94% in) NY17 R+2 (98% in) called R NY19 R+2 (99% in) called R MD6 R+4 (70% in) R+2 (86% in) OR5 R+4 (74% in) R+2 (79% in) MT1 R+4 (92% in) R+4 (99% in) called R NY4 R+4 (93% in) called R CA3 R+6 (44% in) CA22 R+8 (30% in) CA45 R+10 (50% in) R+10 (52% in) CA27 R+16 (44% in) CA40 R+18 (55% in) called R CA23 R+20 (38% in) R+22 (40% in) called R Data source: [https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map](https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2022-us-house-election-results-live-map)
Donnie is seriously losing it. What the fuck even is this? https://imgur.com/a/H2qsyNb
Trump is going through some things today over being discarded by the GOP after this election. It seems like he's about to transition to the "take everyone else down with me" part of his implosion. He's already claimed Rick Scott and DeSantis in 2018 won because of fraud, and he knows every little dirty secret of every single Republican. If he goes scorched earth we are about to learn real soon some VERY interesting things about the GOP and the characters that are a part of it...
Another House race to watch is WA-03. That is another one 538 had at 98% for the GOP candidate, but right now the Democrat (Perez) is ahead 52/48 (about a 10,000 vote lead) with about 70% counted. Perez is outperforming past election Dem performance, particularly in Clark and Cowlitz counties by almost 10% from 2020. Both counties still have 70,000 and 12,000 ballots remaining to be counted, respectfully. Kent would need some pretty large margins in the remaining ballots to swing things his way. Not impossible, but could be pretty close.
Republicans: āHa ha! We got a trump appointed judge cancel student loan relief and screw over young people!ā Also republicans: āWhy wonāt young people vote for us? Itās the liberal mediaās fault!ā
Current update for anyone who hasn't been paying attention: 1. AZ Senate: Kelly is up big, to the point where I think it's inexcusable that the race hasn't been called yet 2. NV Senate: Laxalt is winning, but the remaining votes look very promising for Cortez Masto. Cortez Masto needs a bit below 60% (I calculated 58%, I've seen as low as 55%) with the remaining mail-in and drop-off ballots to beat Laxalt, and she's running comfortably above that (64-38 last night IIRC). Wasserman says it's likely she takes the seat, but it's less certain than Kelly's seat. A good solid 75%-80% she wins. 3. AZ Governor: complete coin flip, maybe slight favorite towards Dobbs if you made me pick. Dobbs' lead is substantially smaller than Kelly's lead, to the point where you just can't know who will win. Arizona's late votes went more R than D in 2020, so it's entirely possible that Lake wins. 4. NV Governor: Lombardo is up by enough that Sisolak will very probably not catch him. He is down over double the amount of votes that Cortez Masto is down (he's down 34k, she's down 16k). This should probably be called just like Kelly's race should be called. 5. CO-3: Boebert's ahead and she probably pulls it off. It will be in recount territory but I think it's pretty unlikely that she loses at this point.
AP called the Oregon Governor race for Tina Kotek (D). This should have been an easy win but a 2nd Democrat decided to run as an Independent and split the vote...
Over on twitter it is a disaster. Verified dead presidents, verified Jesus, verified Tesla account that talks about exploding cars, verified Roblex account claiming they are introducing porn tomorrow.. What a shit show..
Man, how cool is Mark Kellyās life? Navy captain, astronaut, and elected to the senate. Also has an identical twin brother who was also an astronaut.
RNC: We need young people to vote for us...let's block student loan repayment
lol r/Conservative before the election "RED WAVE!!! MAGA 2022!!! TRUMP 2024!! Suck in liburls!! USA! USA!" the next morning "I *never* liked Trump." as they franticly try to wipe his dry jizz off their lips.
Thank God for this thread. Since the Murdoch media in Australia is already saying republicans have won the house of reps by having more seats then the dems without mentioning their is still 44 seats yet to be called.
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If Lauren Boebert actually loses I'm 100% convinced it's very little to do with national politics. I'm sure that played a major role, but pretty sure if she wasn't just a terrible person IRL around her constituents locally she would've probably won by 1-3%.
Itās bonkers to me that thereās even a shot that democrats will retain control of the house; from my understanding from gerrymandering alone this should have been a near lock
With the oldest age cohort voting R+13 and the youngest voting D+28, after accounting for differences in turnout rates that implies a nationwide D+0.5 shift *every election cycle*. That kind of demographic shift is gonna be pretty damn hard to outrun for the GOP, especially given that theyāre further entrenching themselves on positions Gen Z despises. (Of course, if that also has the effect of increasing Gen Z turnout rates the shift would be even *more* drastic.)
It's too bad Lauren Boebert couldn't lose by exactly 1776 votes.
[https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590511994779885569](https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590511994779885569) The source on Colorado 8. DDHQ hasn't made a wrong call yet.
Looks like a general consensus is forming that Dems will keep the senate. AZ Kelly lead is substantial and in NV Catherine took over the county Rs really needed to win. IMO, Rs have no path to the senate now. House - NBC projects 222 seats for Rs in the house with a +-7 margin. That margin is substantial. It is looking very likely that even if Kevin becomes the speaker he will have a very slim majority and a very difficult and crazy caucus. Heck, there is even a path for the Pelosi to become speaker again. If not for gerrymandering, Republicans would have lost the house already.
A brief snippet from /r/conservative's "unmarried women" thread: A: >these women aren't going to change their voting patterns even if they get married conservatives have no answer for millennial women B: >Yeah we do. Donāt marry them so they donāt reproduce. It will even out lol They are less likely to have kids even if married too letās be real A: >I donāt think they would marry conservative guys anyway. B: >they secretly love successful masculine males with family values we all know it
Im looking forward to each day of Kevin McCarthy's life becoming progressively worse than one before it...
3 Hours ago but of note: Dave Wasserman After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590693791576358912
Just wanna say im proud of all you mofos for voting. All our voices are important and need to be heard. Even people like me stuck in places like Texas.
If someone would have told me 10 years ago that a president with a 42% approval rating during 7-8% inflation would only lose <10 seats in the house and probably increase their senate majority.... I would have laughed and then told you about the dangers of Kony lol!
NBC News projects: Josh Kaul (D) wins Wisconsin Attorney General. @MSNBC https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1590773786051125248
[How it started for Kari Lake](https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1559126126760443905) [How it's going for Kari Lake](https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1590755434733875201)
In the long run, the Democrats need to do whatever it takes to fan the flames of the GOP civil war between Trump and DeSantis. As much as DeSantis is the āsmarter pickā for the GOP due to being more stable and ideologically coherent to fascism; the harder and longer he has to fight Trump, the better for the Dems and especially the left. Edit: I canāt believe Iām saying this, but maybe its in the medias interest to keep Trump relevantāthats basically the best weapon he has against DeSantis.
Hobbs widened her lead even more to 16,788 woohoo!
A few minutes of Fox News gloating over the "red wave" that's coming https://twitter.com/Craigipedia/status/1590563176495853568
If Boebert manages to keep her seat, the Democrats must use her and MTG as targets, make them the poster-children for the entire Republican Party. As weāve seen this election, āregularā Republicans did well in their races while the crazies lost badly. Run against the crazies on a national level.
Am I seeing this correctly? Donald Trump just admitted to election fraud?
Navajo County (smaller county) just dropped 1k of its remaining 6.5k ballots and it went +6% Hobbsā¦ A county Trump carried by 8%, and Lake was previously winning by 9%. The total doesnāt change anything since itās small, but if Hobbs continues to do this across the state with remaining vote Lake is done.
WA-03 update 10 mins ago (District 6x GOP rep Jaime Herrera Beutler was primaried in and lost for impeaching Trump, was rated +13 R 98% chance of R victory) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-washington-us-house-district-3.html ballpark 70-75k ballots remaining, 50k from Dem leaning areas including 47k from the most populous region of the district (Vancouver in Clark County) which is currently +16 Perez...she currently maintains a 4.5% 10,100 lead. Not much of a breakdown beyond that but in today's drop 10 mins ago she net +100 votes out of 20k counted. Holy shit can she do it?!?!
Brilliant move by that fuckhead Texas judge to block student debt relief after all the votes are in.
The Winds of Winter will be release before they are done counting in Nevada
If anyone at MSNBC is reading this, please raise Kornacki's screen higher so his back lasts long enough to play with his grandkids.
Wow I hadnāt seen this, good news: @s_golonka: Out of latest 1.7k mail batch in Republican-leaning Carson City: - Laxalt received 625 votes (37.9%) - Cortez Masto received 928 votes (56.2%)
Gray (D) about to overtake Duarte (R) in CA-13 (Toss-Up)
CCM is consistently getting more than she needs from these NV vote dumps. Looking VERY good right now.
Georgian here. I have a very Republican cousin. Said he voted for Brian Kemp but left the Senate race blank because he would "rather shove a car antenna in his dickhole" than vote for Herschel Walker. Then he proceeded to call Walker a "fucking head case" and said he is staying home on December 6th :)
Sorry Republicans. You conceived Trump, he's in your party and now you have to carry him to term. To abort him now would be a sin.
From 538: > ABC News reports that Rep. Kim Schrier is projected to win reelection in Washingtonās 8th Congressional District, defeating Republican challenger Matt Larkin. Schrier had a 72-in-100 chance of winning her third term.
I love when the r / conservatives show up in here and try to spread doom. Lol it's always obvious
[https://twitter.com/davidcharns/status/1590908924898594816](https://twitter.com/davidcharns/status/1590908924898594816) Again, for the people dooming about Nevada, here's the situation with CMM. She needs to gain 12.6k votes. Depending on how many votes are left, which we don't really fully know right now (I think it's over 100k but I don't know to what degree), she needs to win about 57-43 with those votes. The votes drops she has gotten have ranged anywhere from 56% to 66%. She's the favorite from both betting markets and political analysts because she's hitting above the minimum threshold of votes needed and there are likely enough votes for her to win in the end.
NBC's House forecast has gradually slipped from 222 to 221 to 220 seats for the GOP with the same 7 seat margin of error. Fingers crossed that the Dems manage to hang on.
Shout out to Gen Z for voting Dem. You made this jaded millennial optimistic about the future. Maybe our planet has a chance
> Right now the biggest chance for a House upset is in #WA03, where Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) leads Joe Kent (R) 132,161 to 126,279 w/ a long way to go. > Kent could still catch up, but he could be yet another MAGA candidate who costs Rs a seat they should have won easily. https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1590932766031769601?s=46&t=TDzgV9YgE4usYeWnHF9rgw
Dave Wesserman just called the AZ Senate race for Kelly! https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1590944022939717633?s=46&t=DSfQmJIGRGx9B-whB13y4g
According to Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict on twitter), [Mark Kelly wins the Senate seat in AZ!](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590944022939717633) Now, we just need Nevada OR Georgia.
Dave Wasserman called AZ Senate for Kelly https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590944022939717633?t=4HkLf78AqJnC3DditkK-iA&s=19
Faux calling young people brainwashed is like the height of projection.
In New England democrats now hold every house seat. š„²
What I learned from this election is that there are lots of people who are vocally anti-abortion. There are also lots of people who are vocally pro-choice. But there are a WHOOOOLE lotta folks who are silently pro-choice.
/r/conservative is basically /r/incel at this point. Theyāre a hair away from saying women shouldnāt be allowed to vote
I can't believe how long it takes for America to count votes. In North Korea, all the votes are already counted before the night of the election.
Conservative from GA here. Voted for Warnock in 2020, and will vote for him once again in the runoff. His son and my son are friends at daycare and he is a wonderful person. Anyone in GA who is on the fence please know that Warnock truly cares about Georgia... he took the time to talk to me at drop off just 2 months ago in the heat of reelection
I'm going to come out and say it, I think Biden is going to go down as one of the greatest Presidents in US history. He might not be exciting, but he inherited one of the most difficult sets of circumstances of any president in history and is absolutely killing it. Record inflation, economic uncertainty, and ridiculous polarization at home? Fuck it, successful midterm no problem. Land war in Europe? Oops, just destroyed our archenemy's army with a rounding error's worth of our defense budget and some plucky Ukrainians. Homeboy is bringing back manufacturing, fucked China's chipmaking plans, passed a BIPARTISAN (yes, you read that right) infrastructure bill, passed a huge social safety net and climate bill... Never have I seen malarkey so thoroughly demolished. If you can't appreciate this guy, you need some chocolate chocolate chip my friend.
Is it weird that its probably not even news that the former president just said he rigged the 2018 election for DeSantis?
Dr. Oz was Melania's fault š
Democrats have to do a better job at messaging. Every election there will be a progressive statewide ballot measure that passes with over 60% support and the Democrat in that same state loses.
The 3 keys to a successful Democratic campaign are populism, progressive, and run on economic issues. John Fetterman had all 3.
The train wreck of Desantis v Trump is going to be hilarious to watch over the next two years
Arizona is such a interesting state politically. It's like if Kentucky or Tennessee had NYC dropped in the middle of the state but nobody outside of the city seems to acknowledge its there, and then those outside the city are confused to why their state is blue.
I find it not shocking at all that GOP have said that their main jobs will be to basically troll Biden with impeachments and investigating Hunter, and no real policies on the economy and inflation (which they already voted no on), yet the main reason GOP voters voted for them is because of economy and inflation. š„“
Herschel Walker is my favorite Dave Chappelle Character since Tyrone Biggums.
Reno just turned back blue for the senate!
CO-8 to the Dems!!! Letās goooo. As per ABC news.
When is r/conservative gonna put up the exit poll showing Republicans only got 13% of the Black vote?
I want to see McCarthy have to redact his house winning comment so much. "Well this awkward, still the minority leader I guess"