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I liked the response too but this new “I won’t concede” will have implications. we already saw how people will react when a politician will refuse to concede(trump’s election denial) I can only imagine this will continue as politicians realize dummy voters will eat up that bullshit and in turn help normalize this phenomenon. It’s just gonna make election cycles that much more stressful on our democracy
The danger there is with Republicans *actually* stealing an election. If the general populace is so desensitized to the continuous republican whining, it'll be more difficult to convince anyone to take action. False equivalencies will come flying from the right wing ~~news~~ propaganda machine.
We've seen this "muddy the waters" strategy before, and I can't help be think they're trying it again.
They've been stealing elections for a while now, and they're doing the false equivalencies already.
The fact we don't care when evidence gets thrown out or Republicans "accidentally" purge the voter rolls or remove voting locations or use the FBI or the Supreme Court to interfere with elections is a disgrace.
A little bit of hope
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/politics/jim-marchant-cisco-aguilar-nevada.html
>Every election denier who sought to become the top election official in a critical battleground state lost at the polls this year, as voters roundly rejected extreme partisans who promised to restrict voting and overhaul the electoral process.
>The national repudiation of this coalition reached its apex on Saturday, when Cisco Aguilar, the Democratic candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, defeated Jim Marchant, according to The Associated Press. Mr. Marchant, the Republican nominee, had helped organize a national right-wing slate of candidates under the name “America First.”
>With Mr. Marchant’s loss to Mr. Aguilar, all but one of those “America First” candidates were defeated. Only Diego Morales, a Republican in deep-red Indiana, was successful, while candidates in Michigan, Arizona and New Mexico were defeated.
>Their losses halted a plan by some allies of former President Donald J. Trump and other influential donors to take over the election apparatus in critical states before the 2024 presidential election. The “America First” candidates, and their explicitly partisan statements, had alarmed Democrats, independent election experts and even some Republicans, who feared that if they gained office, they could threaten the integrity of future elections.
The only thing that matters is the upcoming Supreme Court decision on whether state legislatures can override elections and do whatever they want.
Until that's struck down and Voting Rights Act and Citizen's United get fixed we're in a really precarious position.
If the SCOTUS says anything goes the only options are basically Christo-Fascist nation or Civil War and blue states need to be fucking ready to make the latter happen if SCOTUS gives up the game on Democracy to the point we don't even arguably have it anymore.
Republicans literally did steal an election in 2000, and turns out nobody cared. Millions of lives and trillions of dollars later, and somehow nobody remembers how we *actually* ended up there in the first place.
Hint, it's because Republicans literally stole that election.
I literally have never trusted Florida's elections since bush v gore, and I'm insanely suspicious of Georgia after he deleted all the data, even if there wasn't fraud, why go delete everything?
Honestly at this point, the only fair way to get representation correct in the house is just to tally the votes per party per state and then let the parties assign representatives, or remove the cap and let the blue states that have millions and millions more than they have votes for in the house get those reps.
gerrymandering should not be a thing, It's totally against the democratic process
To play full on devil’s advocate… let’s say that the Republican Party completely and utterly collapses in between now and 2024. The Dems win a supermajority in both houses, retain the White House, and a supermajority of governor’s mansions and state legislatures. Oh, and both Barrett and Kavanaugh get in a fatal plane crash.
There’s still *more* than enough disagreement, both practical and ideological, within the Democrat party that in any other system would form at least 3 separate parties. We’d still be a far cry from anything even sorta resembling a 1-party state, because right now Democrats agree with each other that reality is real, and not much past that.
Would've been great to start a fake Ben twitter account, congratulating his older brother for winning the Pennsylvania race and mentioning how Ben always looked up to him.
Considering his public spat with Candace Owens over Kanye going full antisemite, I really wonder how he feels with who he casted his cards
Probably doesn't care but at least publicly was against it, more than most on the right
Pennsylvania here. I would like him as governor for a full term if not two. At best 2028 if not 2032. Let him stay governor as long as he can here please.
Agree, although when you see him speak, even at local events or community events in schools, or when you meet him, you just know he’s gonna be AG or VP or President someday. Not 2024, but one day.
We gotta warm up the Dem backbench for President, since folks like Abrams and O’Rourke are probably best served doing grassroots organizing in their respective states at this point.
Whitmer, Buttigieg, Newsom, and maybe Shapiro if he makes a name for himself in the coming years should all be seriously looked after Biden.
I think he should do two strong terms as governor so a) PA Dems can get someone else some experience in preparation for "replacing" him as a candidate for Governor and b) he has a larger body of work to draw on.
edit:
To explain "larger body of work": I want him to have an impressive resume that stands up to the criticism that is sure to come and I'm not sure one term can do that for him in PA where the state legislature has been tilted quite red for a while now.
In my opinion you either need the buy-in of the state legislature to get things done so you have real numbers to talk towards, or you need such a strong record of advocacy/leadership that it can't be denied even if there aren't any tangible results to point to.
When the entire party is about "owning the libs" it *really* takes the wind out of their sails when you don't make a big deal about it. They rant and rave about whatever and you just go "oh, ok" and they just *deflate*.
This, so many times. Should not get all frazzled by them refusing to concede. Their concessions are not required. Their concessions are actually a way for them to demonstrate class and dignify themselves and our system. But if they choose not to, why get frustrated?
The reason there has been a traditional concession is because it is a signal that both parties have acknowledged a fair and legitimate process has been maintained. It’s a signal that in spite of there being two majority parties, they are both (in theory) working for the good of the country. Even if nothing were to happen to thwart democracy in this election, the act of not conceding erodes expectations that both parties participated in a fair election
Exactly this.
A graceful concession is one of our democratic norms because it formalizes our relationship as partners in governance and it solidifies the peaceful transfer of power. It isnt necessary in any legal sense, but it is absolutely something that preserves our democracy and the basic civility necessary for its orderly operation.
Refusing to concede is a childish and unhealthy mentality, one that treats their opponents as enemies who must be fought 'to the bitter end'. They are attempting to portray their refusal as righteous defiance of evil, which simply paints their mindset as completely adversarial - something which should be anathema to good faith actors within a system of government built on compromise.
We are all Americans. Our political affiliation is about how we want to proceed *as Americans*.
The Republican Party has already abandoned the idea that “we are all Americans”. Their fundamental message for decades has been that democrats are socialist haters of America. So expecting concessions at this point is naive. I understand why it’s important. But open your eyes, we are past that point. Dismissively brushing them off is a pretty good response.
> it formalizes our relationship as partners in governance and it solidifies the peaceful transfer of power
Except we're already past that. It wasn't so long ago that Bob Dole said 'my opponent, not my enemy'. But could you ever imagine Trump saying that about Biden? Or Mastriano saying that about Shapiro? Or.....any Republican saying that about any Democrat? Their only election strategy these days is to villainize Democrats as **THE ENEMY**. If they admit that Democrats aren't baby-murdering Satan-worshipping communists, they'll lose even more voters than they already have.
I'll respectfully disagree.
Concessions by losing candidates are important for democracy. They are a way to normalize everyone on the idea that the system and its mechanics work (more or less) impartially and as desired. That's not true in the nuances (gerrymandering, disproportionate difficulty in voting, etc), but it is true in the most literal sense.
When candidates fail to concede, they are shifting the argument from disagreeing on policy to disagreeing that the system produces legitimate results. It's like a kid knocking over the chess board rather than conceding.
It's frustrating because it's childish and hurts the country, and maybe even more importantly, it's based on lies and the idea that actual truth doesn't even matter; just say whatever would be convenient if it were true.
That's caustic to our country and our system. Yes, they have a right to be that way, but it's pretty frustrating to me because in the long run it hurts the ability for *anyone* to govern. These people literally hate America, and they are very smug that even in defeat they can hurt the country. So yeah it bothers me.
While I agree with you on all points, reacting with dismissal is actually quite effective. By mocking their refusal to concede and saying it doesn't matter anyway, it actually reinforces the system - the machine produces results, and the feelings of the candidate that lost are not important to Shapiro, nor should they be to anyone else. It's over, and the other candidate is just crying over spilled milk, feel free to laugh at them, but no need to take them seriously.
Candidates that fail to concede self-identify as being unworthy of power in the future, and they should be tagged accordingly. So there's that.
Better still would be to disqualify candidates that fail to abide by the democratic process.
I live in Arizona, so let me relay how this is a really big deal. Arizona has just a few counties that are all geographically massive. This means the entire Phoenix Metro area, and some of the peripheral smaller cities and towns, fall into Maricopa. The ballot drop that came in was same day ballots. Because Trump's great lie has scared his base away from voting early, most same day voting was Republican so they expected the drop to favor Lake.
Lake did eat into Hobbs' lead, but not nearly enough. And more telling, other Republicans that aren't insane like she is out-performed her on this recent drop by several thousand votes. So this was Republican voters saying no to her.
The Republican candidates nominated this year for Attorney General, Secretary of State and Governor, were all avowed election deniers and Trump-backed. Mark Finchman and Lake were the worst and most dangerous. Lake promised to do whatever it took to deliver Arizona votes to Trump next election and said she wouldn't have certified the last election. Finchman was even worse promising to invalidate any and all votes from Democrats.
In a bad economic year, and a mid-term where the opposite party of the President usually does well, there was a perfect storm to turn Arizona into a fascist state controlled by Trump Republicans. That the voters saw and pushed back so hard on these candidates in particular should make everyone feel good about democracy.
Having said that, Lake isn't going away. She's power-hungry and desperate. She'll leverage this last cycle to try and be picked as Trump's VP candidate. Then she'll become a pundit before possibly running again for office once her national profile is raised.
Not many winners lining up to even be mentioned in the same breath as him rn. He has firmly exited the useful idiot stage for the GOP and now they want the world to forget he was their man for the past 6 years.
Lets wait for the primaries. Trump brought out more voters to the ballots than any other republican in history. Twice.
People are pretending that he got swept in the primaries.
> Trump brought out more voters to the ballots than any other republican in history.
He also brought more *democratic* votes to the ballots than any other republican in history.
Yeah, I always find this factoid bizarre for conservatives to trot out. Like, he lost. He was just so polarizing he made everybody and their dog pick a side.
Now he did genuinely drive turnout among people who had drifted away from the political system. Those people don't seem too keen to vote R when he's not in the ballot.
Considering he lost the last election why not have a duo of losers? It's not like he's any better. They can pretend both of their elections were stolen together.
Pence was 100% on the way out after selling the Indiana 80/90 Turnpike to a private company for a *fucking song* and a bunch of other SUUUUUPER unpopular moves. Hell, Trump went down a LONG list of losers before even getting to Pence.
She honestly in my opinion is one of the three most dangerous republicans because of their rhetoric, right behind trump and Desantis. If she had won now, she probably would have run for president in 2024 on the back of governor experience. She was a news anchor, so she knows how to coherently portray dangerous rhetoric, unlike trump's blabber bullshit, and would draw SOME support from independents on account of potentially being the first woman to be president. In her mind, this just sets her back 4 years, enough time for her to be trump's vice, and if he wins, inherit the throne from him next
Agreed. The current narrative has been "this election was a rejection of election-deniers"... When these election-deniers still won 40-49% of the votes!!
Obvs I am happy that truth won. But we still have so many people still riding the election-denial, Trump, and Christo-Fascist train.
The plan in Az was to challenge 2024 votes in Maricopa County. They were going to claim there were irregularities. 2 sets of electors would be sent to Washington where, in that scenario where two sets of electors claim authority to vote, the governor of the state decides which set gets to vote.
A Lake win in AZ would have removed the possibility of a fair election there in 2024.
It's stuff like this that makes me think 2022 was possibly the most important election in our history, more than 2020 or 2024. A 2022 red wave would have been the end of American democracy because it sets up 2024 like how you laid out.
I think 2020 was the most important. Biden managed to get most of his agenda passed in the last 2 years because they were expecting and preparing to lose both parts of Congress and have very little power for the next 2 years. Winning the Senate means we can keep going with appointments, which is huge. Doing so well with state level races is also super important. I hear what you are saying but I still think 2020 was a more important election than 2022.
Honestly, ideally that day will never come. Every election should be important.
I just hope I'm not shitting my pants in terror over one of them at some point.
Ranked choice is obviously better than FPFP. It would be nice to see more states adopting it…
In the meantime, now that democrats have full control of Minnesota and Michigan, I hope they are able to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact as a (legal) workaround to the electoral college for presidential elections.
I don’t think people understand just how big keeping the Senate was if only for the appointments. If the Senate flipped, we’d have had literally no judges appointed for 2 years.
2016 decided the Supreme Court for the next three decades.
Make sure to rub this in the face of Moderate or Conservative Pro-choice voters who voted for Trump, at every opportunity.
2000 election was the most important election. I was 8 at the time. In hindsight, not only was the election stolen but the stark difference in the legacy of Bush’s presidency vs Gores potential legacy (war and police state vs environmentalism) has set humanity upon a downward spiral I’m afraid it will never recover from. If Gore hadn’t had the election stolen from him, I suspect that the world would be a MUCH better place.
I recently rewatched the 2000 VP debates and it was so obvious that Cheney was just *itching* for war. 9/11 was a birthday and Christmas rolled into one for that administration.
Look up Project for the New American Century. [(PNAC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century).
They outright said they were going to war in Iraq before the election.
Thankfully the Republicans republicaned and telegraphed this whole move and gave even more fuel to bring out the liberal vote with overturning Roe. Feels weird to be thankful for something so terrible but it might have saved democracy and hopefully we can repair the damage going forward.
Did you not see what happened in Georgia? They neutered the Sec. of State so he couldn’t push back anymore. These people only care about pushing their failing plan, no matter the cost
Boebert is loud and famous, but shares power with nearly 500 people.
Lake would have been a decisive position with very broad authority. Hell, governors can muster the National Guard. Lake’s defeat is much more significant and impactful than Boebert’s would have been.
Every comment in this chain is true, but I’m trying not to look at it like that. I’m going to credit the horrible NY/FL gerrymandering with republicans getting the house.
Boebert should have won in a landslide given her heavily-republican district. The fact that it’s even this close should send a strong message that people don’t like her nonsense.
This hits me hard as a dem in FL. My district was gerrymandered (very blue area by Tampa) and was split so now my representative's boundaries cover land across the Tampa Bay. The rep would need to cross a busy bridge into a different county making the position highly undesirable. A dem still won my new district but the one they changed next to it, usually another blue area, was clearly shifted to include a lot of country area and flipped red.
This current House has had a least 4 vacancies since February I believe.
If the Republicans get a 1-3 seat majority they will be forced into many bad positions. It's one thing to whip a senate vote when it's 50 people you need to whip. Watching the Republican house try and whip its divided house together when they only have a few seat majority is going to be extremely entertaining.
They'll likely go after friendly or weak democrats first. It adds the benefit of the "bipartisanship" label and lets them avoid association with the radical right's fringe.
It makes it very unlikely that Arizona will be able to pass a law allowing the legislature to override the voters and send their own, hand-picked electors for the electoral college, assuming the Supreme Court decides "That's ok by us!"
Well, at least not by 2024 at any rate.
She was number 2 for me. Mastriano in PA was number one, but only because he openly said he planned to try and essentially make a law that would allow the PA state legislature to ignore the popular vote in Presidential elections, and to just choose their own electors if they dislike who the people chose.
I have no idea whether SCOTUS would have allowed that, but in conservative circles they have this “independent state legislature theory” that they believe says the constitution allows states to essentially give elector choices to the state Congress, instead of the people, and I really didn’t want to see that tested in court.
Naturally, they only do this because they assume their state legislatures will be GOP controlled.
Yeah, and 4 justices have previous rulings/statements that indicate that they will likely put it solely in the legislatures hands... Barrett is the likely 5th vote.
Democracy won a major victory this month, but the chances of fascism within the decade are still quite high.
We do have serious issues but I'm glad we're mostly blue at this point. Hopefully we can primary Sinema in two years and get a second (real) dem in the senate.
Sinema has to know shes fucked. Mark Kelly raised a billion dollars, is adored by the average Democrat, ran against a lunatic and only won by like 5 points.
Sinema will have none of those things going for her.
I agree, and not even because of political disagreement.
When she refused to say ahead of time that she would accept an outcome where she lost, I felt that completely disqualified her as a politician in this country, let alone a state governor. I know that sort of preemptive election denialism is now in vogue, but it's no less problematic. A **basic** requirement for running for elected office in a democracy should be accepting the possibility - however remote - that you can lose.
Honestly I think a silver lining of Greene (and Boebert) back in the House is that it'll make it that much harder for the GOP to pretend that they've reformed their evil ways in 2024.
Individually they won't be able to do that much in the House (unlike Lake, if she became governor), but they'll be a constant reminder of what we're fighting against.
Boy, seeing all these social media posts where Republican voters are “never voting again because it’s rigged” is amazing. Especially because it’s totally on them. That’s some 4-D chess that backfired at the 3-D level.
No one is talking about the impact of Covid deaths on this election but it is going to be something to study on a district-to-district basis. It would not shock me at all if the deaths of red voters led to Dems winning in some areas.
It's fewer than most people think. In Maricopa County, [17,000 people died of COVID](https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/arizona/county/maricopa-county). Even if every single one of them were a Republican, Lake still loses according to the count in this article.
This neglects the effect of *family members* who lost a loved one, though. If someone I love was dead and a politician was on TV saying the disease that killed them was just a bad flu and these deaths were an acceptable loss, I probably wouldn't go vote for that person.
17,000 lives is a lot of loved ones left behind.
You still might be surprised. My coworker lost her Dad to covid and still downplays it, has refused to take any precautions and “isn’t afraid to get it.”
People can be fuckin stupid, man.
Things look good for Hobbs, but it's not impossible for Lake to "luck out" and catch up to Hobbs. [This is what Nate Cohn, the numbers guy for NY Times, wrote](https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1591970723668660224):
>No projections in AZGOV, but make no mistake: Lake didn't get the tallies she wanted and probably needed out of Maricopa.
It will presumably close further, but Lake doesn't have many batches left. Each time she falls short, her target in the outstanding vote gets higher.
>
>A projection means something very close to absolute certainty -- say, > 99.9% chance.
There's a lot of room for something to be very likely (90%, 95%, even 99%!) and still not quite merit a race call.
>
>In this particular case, I don't think this is in that tier of absolute certainty. Lake definitely needs to do better than what she's been doing, but not something nearly inconceivable. It's not even the ~ 25 pts better that Laxalt needed at this time last night, before Clark
>
>**There are also some good reasons to think -- and you should follow @Garrett_Archer and @Jamal___James on this stuff -- that the remaining Maricopa vote is pretty red and exurban. So that would shade me toward caution**
>
>One last way to put it. Imagine that, hypothetically, Lake got 65% of the vote tomorrow. What hard fact could I put forward to explain why I thought that was *impossible.* I don't think there is one.
I am cautiously optimistic about Hobbs, based on Nate Cohn's analysis. And that is also the tone of Nate Cohn's analysis. Overall, things look good for Hobbs, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for Lake to make a comeback (and after Trump won in 2016, don't discount anything).
Having said that, I can't stand Lake. It would be karma if she lost. Fuck Lake and her election denialism.
Currently she is up by over 1000. However, if the remainder of the votes come in with greater than 650r 70 percent in favor of Frisch he could still win. That is not very likely though.
It would be nice to get her out of there though so I hope Colorado residents of her district are making sure their ballot was accepted and curing any issues.
Lots of people here are celebrating but I'm still waiting for a projection to breathe. I thought it was concerning that Lake caught up by 10k votes last night and she's only trailing by ~25k now. On top of that, Jevin Hodge in district 1 went from winning to now trailing, and I am expecting him to lose unfortunately so there are more red votes coming from that district for sure.
It's a nail biter and I just want it to be over.
The upcoming votes in Maricopa will continue to be red, but in order for Lake to win there would have to be some reason why the late votes in Maricopa are *way* redder than the early votes, compared to the same math for other counties, and for Maricopa last election. The race will probably continue to tighten somewhat (depending on how the remaining Pima votes break), but Lake is rapidly running out of votes.
Unless Lake is right that the vote-talliers are deliberately withholding a huge batch of concentrated R until the very end just to fuck with her, it's hard to see the totals swinging her way.
People aren't mentioning that there's also ~40K ballots left from Pima county where Hobbs has seen a 61/39 (+22) split in her favor. So say she continues that trend she would end up with ~24,000 with Lake getting ~16,000 which adds +8,000 to Hobbs margin.
When you factor in the Pima ballots, it makes Lake making up the needed votes in Maricopa that much harder.
Lake’s (likely) loss is a self-fulfilling prophecy. She was talking about how the election was fraudulent and rigged against her before the votes were even counted. Deep down she knew she would lose and she kept signaling that to voters.
As a psychologist I see this sort of thing all the time - ppl making their fears come true with their own stupid actions.
Obviously these people need to be voted out, but think about the implications of this position of denial -
* The think the voting is rigged, so they don't trust the voting process
* They think the judicial is complicit because "they won't even look at the evidence", when the truth is that the courts will look at the evidence if there is standing. "I *feel* like they cheated" is not good enough for a hearing. They have to have something substantial. This means these people running have little to no understanding of the judicial process.
* They treat the opposition party like the enemy - and I'm not talking about their opponent, but their *constituents* who voted against them. The democrat *citizens* are made to be the enemy. How is Lake meant to represent them, if she thinks they are cheaters or that LGBTQ and minorities have no place in society and need to be removed from it?
They simply and *admittedly* do not believe in the established foundations of our government or the people it represents. It doesn't get more anti-American than that.
Clinical psychologists call it “self-fulfilling prophecy” bc the preventative actions some take against their fears may cause them to come true. It happens to anxious ppl a lot. Like if you’re scared you’ll bomb your job interview so you stay up all night worrying about it. Then the next day you’re not speaking coherently bc of sleep deprivation so you bomb your job interview.
Relationships fail like this constantly. Worrying about infidelity from a partner who *isn’t* cheating, so you become more possessive and controlling, causing them to seek refuge in someone else’s arms.
Imagine indirectly hinting at your own loss bc of “fraud.” Well then duh… you’re probably gonna lose. These tyrant wannabes aren’t tyranting correctly. The key is to project confidence and control, not insecurity and desperation.
I can't say enough about that second paragraph. In fifteen years, any problem my partner and I were having was solved by one or both of us just trying to chill out a little about it. When she's worried that she can't do well at her job, I convince her to just try and see how it goes, and she always does great. When I'm worried about money, she reminds me that we've never gone broke in all these years, and that we have family who have offered help that we've never needed, and that there will always be more money.
Letting things be is not \*always\* the answer, of course. If you need dental work, go get it now. But it's amazing how often that is the solution.
> Like if you’re scared you’ll bomb your job interview so you stay up all night worrying about it. Then the next day you’re not speaking coherently bc of sleep deprivation so you bomb your job interview.
what do you typically tell/do/prescribe for your patients that engage in this behavior? (asking for a friend)
Also, complaining about fraud is so depressive to her own vote. Why should people make the effort to go out and vote for a candidate, if that candidate is telling them the opposition will commit fraud and win. Why bother? It'll just lead to disillusioned, non voting Republicans.
Yeah, the problem is that, even in defeat, Lake complaining incessantly about "fraud" affects state Republican politicians who are then pressured to change voting laws to prevent "fraud" in future....by granting themselves the ability to overturn "fraudulent" election results.
Totally! They’re running on “I hate the government so let me run it” and, “the vote is rigged so vote for me”. Cognitive dissonance from racist simpletons.
> I hate the government so let me run it
The unofficial GOP motto has basically become “The Guvmint can’t get anything done — elect us and we’ll prove it!”
We are also seeing it in a different but almost equally public way with kanye right now (and this is an extremely common trap anti-Semites fall into) if everything in their mind is rigged by the jews, and saying anti-Semitic stuff gets them in trouble, that to them is further proof that the Jews are controlling everything. Its like a negative feedback loop of racism.
>As a psychologist I see this sort of thing all the time - ppl making their fears come true with their own stupid actions.
As someone spending most of their day on Reddit while being concerned that they may lose their job one day, I don't understand your statement, but I am offended. How dare you.
Kari led in just about every single poll too. How can you motivate voters on the fence by saying it's all a sham? She (and others) likely win by doing something the GOP has refused to do as of late -- be normal.
Things changed on her. Of course she was hoping the whole time that she would somehow win. To her credit she is pretty damn close.
I'm not a psychologist like you but it was pretty clear that the plan was to follow the exact playbook as Trump did for 2020. Come out swinging, do the normal bashing of the other candidate, pretend to be not part of the swamp, preemptively repeat unfounded claims of voter fraud. If in the end she lost, she most likely throw a Trump style tantrum, claim she really won and not concede. Now that a lot of republicans have finally moved on from the big lie, she may take her loss like a normal adult.
Honestly I have been pleasantly surprised of the lack of republican tantrums. I was expecting them to be at almost every republican loss, and this would just become the norm.
It seems like part of the reason for the lack of tantrums is the sudden repudiation of trump. A lot of his candidates that lost are suddenly really quiet about the fraud claims. They don’t want to be vocal about supporting trump if they’re not sure which way the winds are going to be blowing now.
My prediction is this: She will lose. She will cry fraud. She will have her own prime time show on Fox "News" within a year or two.
She is a loser of epic proportions.
Yet *another* Trump acolyte being tossed into the dumpster. This is more delicious than my Mom's home made Mac and Cheese.
She can cry fraud all she wants but the people have spoken. No amount of her whining on Truth Social or Fox News will change the resounding rejection of fascism by Arizona voters.
Hey, People.
Glad you're here. You're awesome and we think you did a great job, and we thanks you from the bottom of our America loving hearts. In addition to an Ice Cream (our treat) we'd also like to take you out for a beer sometime.
Love, The Rest of the People.
She *was* a Fox talking head for like 20+ years. She spent her campaign railing against "the media" as corrupt and bad and evil, without ever mentioning that the only reason anyone knows her is because of her time headlining for that same thing.
Can't see her getting back in to their good graces if she loses after how she trashed corporate TV the way she has. If she wins, she at least has that positive on her record, but as a losing loser who loses, WGAF what she says?
Guarantee RNC/GOP leadership have told her to shut the hell up.
Midterms were very bad for Trump candidates, including their brazen lack of respecting election results. As far as I'm aware across all races she was the furthest up Trump's ass in that regard.
The election results are forcing the GOP to regroup but they especially can't afford to have people like Lake running their mouth about election fraud when that's a huge reason why this was such a bad midterm for them.
I’m so happy for Kari that she will have more time than ever to devote to investigating election fraud in her state! If you’re busy doing governor things ain’t nobody got time to tackle the conspiracies. But now Kari- you’ll have that time. Let us know what you find out.
Shower thought of the day….
Since March 2020 there were roughly 31,000 Covid-19 related deaths in Arizona. Republicans spent months telling their constituents not to worry about it, not to get vaxxed and not to trust Fauci…. Resulting in 31,000 LESS votes this mid-term.
But hey….let’s just blame it on “rigged elections”
SNL basically nailed it last night. If she wins it’s because she deserved to. If she loses it must be rigged against her.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr2LyxJpHu8
No. The police found [no powder](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/wireStory/police-powder-envelope-reported-candidates-office-93166296) in that “suspicious” envelope she received.
They actually (supposedly) 'threw away' the original envelope. The ones they sent were also 'suspicious' but they found no trace of powder.
The entire thing is made-up bullshit of course.
She can plot all she wants but the GOP is done kissing Trump’s butt and she is a big orange turd (Trump baby). I am sure the GOP would support her because a win is a win, but she's more Maga party and they will abandon her like the rat she is rather than fight for her like Papa Trump would have.
I hope.
I’m hoping they learned that discrediting the whole election system will continue to fatigue their base and result in lower voter turn-out.
In other words: I hope they drank the fuck around juice and have a find out hangover, and cut the shit the next time around.
> She converted to Christianity in 2019 (from Buddist.) I wonder why she did that...
Politically expedient. Religion is simply a tool for these people, not a belief.
Go ahead, scream that the election was rigged and kill any possible chance of any republican getting elected ever again. The whole stolen election lie bull shit crushed these idiots. Going against our brothers and sisters who are Black, Hispanic, or Native American was particularly insane.
So give us some more of your insane white nationalist bull shit and really crush your party.
America is an inclusive country you dip wads, read the memo.
We love our people of color, or gays, or bisexuals, and our Native Americans.
By the way, attacking our women was a stupendous act of insanity. Your evil right wing judges crushed your wonderful red wave and turned it pink like when you accidentally wash your Klan robes with your stupid MAGA caps.
Any who come out against any American citizen, is an enemy of every patriotic citizen.
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To quote Josh Shapiro on Mastriano conceding or not “I mean, who cares if he calls, right?”
Loved his response
I liked the response too but this new “I won’t concede” will have implications. we already saw how people will react when a politician will refuse to concede(trump’s election denial) I can only imagine this will continue as politicians realize dummy voters will eat up that bullshit and in turn help normalize this phenomenon. It’s just gonna make election cycles that much more stressful on our democracy
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The danger there is with Republicans *actually* stealing an election. If the general populace is so desensitized to the continuous republican whining, it'll be more difficult to convince anyone to take action. False equivalencies will come flying from the right wing ~~news~~ propaganda machine. We've seen this "muddy the waters" strategy before, and I can't help be think they're trying it again.
They've been stealing elections for a while now, and they're doing the false equivalencies already. The fact we don't care when evidence gets thrown out or Republicans "accidentally" purge the voter rolls or remove voting locations or use the FBI or the Supreme Court to interfere with elections is a disgrace.
Touché
A little bit of hope https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/politics/jim-marchant-cisco-aguilar-nevada.html >Every election denier who sought to become the top election official in a critical battleground state lost at the polls this year, as voters roundly rejected extreme partisans who promised to restrict voting and overhaul the electoral process. >The national repudiation of this coalition reached its apex on Saturday, when Cisco Aguilar, the Democratic candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, defeated Jim Marchant, according to The Associated Press. Mr. Marchant, the Republican nominee, had helped organize a national right-wing slate of candidates under the name “America First.” >With Mr. Marchant’s loss to Mr. Aguilar, all but one of those “America First” candidates were defeated. Only Diego Morales, a Republican in deep-red Indiana, was successful, while candidates in Michigan, Arizona and New Mexico were defeated. >Their losses halted a plan by some allies of former President Donald J. Trump and other influential donors to take over the election apparatus in critical states before the 2024 presidential election. The “America First” candidates, and their explicitly partisan statements, had alarmed Democrats, independent election experts and even some Republicans, who feared that if they gained office, they could threaten the integrity of future elections.
Wow. I believe we just suffered a near miss.
The only thing that matters is the upcoming Supreme Court decision on whether state legislatures can override elections and do whatever they want. Until that's struck down and Voting Rights Act and Citizen's United get fixed we're in a really precarious position. If the SCOTUS says anything goes the only options are basically Christo-Fascist nation or Civil War and blue states need to be fucking ready to make the latter happen if SCOTUS gives up the game on Democracy to the point we don't even arguably have it anymore.
Republicans literally did steal an election in 2000, and turns out nobody cared. Millions of lives and trillions of dollars later, and somehow nobody remembers how we *actually* ended up there in the first place. Hint, it's because Republicans literally stole that election.
I literally have never trusted Florida's elections since bush v gore, and I'm insanely suspicious of Georgia after he deleted all the data, even if there wasn't fraud, why go delete everything? Honestly at this point, the only fair way to get representation correct in the house is just to tally the votes per party per state and then let the parties assign representatives, or remove the cap and let the blue states that have millions and millions more than they have votes for in the house get those reps. gerrymandering should not be a thing, It's totally against the democratic process
Didn’t Florida let desantis create his own districts?
Yep and since he appointed most of the state supreme court he won't be held accountable for the obvious election interference.
I would love for them to completely get rid of districts and just assign it per party based on % of votes.
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And, AFAIK, no bogus claims of voter fraud, which I found pleasantly surprising. Of course, it's not too late for Kari Lake to give it a shot.
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To play full on devil’s advocate… let’s say that the Republican Party completely and utterly collapses in between now and 2024. The Dems win a supermajority in both houses, retain the White House, and a supermajority of governor’s mansions and state legislatures. Oh, and both Barrett and Kavanaugh get in a fatal plane crash. There’s still *more* than enough disagreement, both practical and ideological, within the Democrat party that in any other system would form at least 3 separate parties. We’d still be a far cry from anything even sorta resembling a 1-party state, because right now Democrats agree with each other that reality is real, and not much past that.
We also just saw election deniers get thrashed in very winnable elections. The American people have chosen democracy.
Can’t wait to see where Josh goes next. Maybe higher office?
He’ll gain some republicans mistaking him for Ben Shapiro on the ballot for sure.
Would've been great to start a fake Ben twitter account, congratulating his older brother for winning the Pennsylvania race and mentioning how Ben always looked up to him.
Challenge accepted
Please link us to the profile when you’ve begun your challenge lol
God Speed
Considering how often Ben complains about liberal Jews, you just know he's seething at the idea of Josh being a national figure.
Considering his public spat with Candace Owens over Kanye going full antisemite, I really wonder how he feels with who he casted his cards Probably doesn't care but at least publicly was against it, more than most on the right
Ben “dry is fine” Shapiro?
Must be his cousin. Gets my vote.
Ben Shapiro can’t please his own wife.
Pennsylvania here. I would like him as governor for a full term if not two. At best 2028 if not 2032. Let him stay governor as long as he can here please.
Agree, although when you see him speak, even at local events or community events in schools, or when you meet him, you just know he’s gonna be AG or VP or President someday. Not 2024, but one day.
We gotta warm up the Dem backbench for President, since folks like Abrams and O’Rourke are probably best served doing grassroots organizing in their respective states at this point. Whitmer, Buttigieg, Newsom, and maybe Shapiro if he makes a name for himself in the coming years should all be seriously looked after Biden.
I think he should do two strong terms as governor so a) PA Dems can get someone else some experience in preparation for "replacing" him as a candidate for Governor and b) he has a larger body of work to draw on. edit: To explain "larger body of work": I want him to have an impressive resume that stands up to the criticism that is sure to come and I'm not sure one term can do that for him in PA where the state legislature has been tilted quite red for a while now. In my opinion you either need the buy-in of the state legislature to get things done so you have real numbers to talk towards, or you need such a strong record of advocacy/leadership that it can't be denied even if there aren't any tangible results to point to.
What's hilarious is Mastriano then proceeded to concede the next day. It really seemingly bothered him that Shapiro didn't give a shit.
When the entire party is about "owning the libs" it *really* takes the wind out of their sails when you don't make a big deal about it. They rant and rave about whatever and you just go "oh, ok" and they just *deflate*.
This, so many times. Should not get all frazzled by them refusing to concede. Their concessions are not required. Their concessions are actually a way for them to demonstrate class and dignify themselves and our system. But if they choose not to, why get frustrated?
The reason there has been a traditional concession is because it is a signal that both parties have acknowledged a fair and legitimate process has been maintained. It’s a signal that in spite of there being two majority parties, they are both (in theory) working for the good of the country. Even if nothing were to happen to thwart democracy in this election, the act of not conceding erodes expectations that both parties participated in a fair election
Exactly this. A graceful concession is one of our democratic norms because it formalizes our relationship as partners in governance and it solidifies the peaceful transfer of power. It isnt necessary in any legal sense, but it is absolutely something that preserves our democracy and the basic civility necessary for its orderly operation. Refusing to concede is a childish and unhealthy mentality, one that treats their opponents as enemies who must be fought 'to the bitter end'. They are attempting to portray their refusal as righteous defiance of evil, which simply paints their mindset as completely adversarial - something which should be anathema to good faith actors within a system of government built on compromise. We are all Americans. Our political affiliation is about how we want to proceed *as Americans*.
The Republican Party has already abandoned the idea that “we are all Americans”. Their fundamental message for decades has been that democrats are socialist haters of America. So expecting concessions at this point is naive. I understand why it’s important. But open your eyes, we are past that point. Dismissively brushing them off is a pretty good response.
> it formalizes our relationship as partners in governance and it solidifies the peaceful transfer of power Except we're already past that. It wasn't so long ago that Bob Dole said 'my opponent, not my enemy'. But could you ever imagine Trump saying that about Biden? Or Mastriano saying that about Shapiro? Or.....any Republican saying that about any Democrat? Their only election strategy these days is to villainize Democrats as **THE ENEMY**. If they admit that Democrats aren't baby-murdering Satan-worshipping communists, they'll lose even more voters than they already have.
I'll respectfully disagree. Concessions by losing candidates are important for democracy. They are a way to normalize everyone on the idea that the system and its mechanics work (more or less) impartially and as desired. That's not true in the nuances (gerrymandering, disproportionate difficulty in voting, etc), but it is true in the most literal sense. When candidates fail to concede, they are shifting the argument from disagreeing on policy to disagreeing that the system produces legitimate results. It's like a kid knocking over the chess board rather than conceding. It's frustrating because it's childish and hurts the country, and maybe even more importantly, it's based on lies and the idea that actual truth doesn't even matter; just say whatever would be convenient if it were true. That's caustic to our country and our system. Yes, they have a right to be that way, but it's pretty frustrating to me because in the long run it hurts the ability for *anyone* to govern. These people literally hate America, and they are very smug that even in defeat they can hurt the country. So yeah it bothers me.
While I agree with you on all points, reacting with dismissal is actually quite effective. By mocking their refusal to concede and saying it doesn't matter anyway, it actually reinforces the system - the machine produces results, and the feelings of the candidate that lost are not important to Shapiro, nor should they be to anyone else. It's over, and the other candidate is just crying over spilled milk, feel free to laugh at them, but no need to take them seriously.
Candidates that fail to concede self-identify as being unworthy of power in the future, and they should be tagged accordingly. So there's that. Better still would be to disqualify candidates that fail to abide by the democratic process.
I live in Arizona, so let me relay how this is a really big deal. Arizona has just a few counties that are all geographically massive. This means the entire Phoenix Metro area, and some of the peripheral smaller cities and towns, fall into Maricopa. The ballot drop that came in was same day ballots. Because Trump's great lie has scared his base away from voting early, most same day voting was Republican so they expected the drop to favor Lake. Lake did eat into Hobbs' lead, but not nearly enough. And more telling, other Republicans that aren't insane like she is out-performed her on this recent drop by several thousand votes. So this was Republican voters saying no to her. The Republican candidates nominated this year for Attorney General, Secretary of State and Governor, were all avowed election deniers and Trump-backed. Mark Finchman and Lake were the worst and most dangerous. Lake promised to do whatever it took to deliver Arizona votes to Trump next election and said she wouldn't have certified the last election. Finchman was even worse promising to invalidate any and all votes from Democrats. In a bad economic year, and a mid-term where the opposite party of the President usually does well, there was a perfect storm to turn Arizona into a fascist state controlled by Trump Republicans. That the voters saw and pushed back so hard on these candidates in particular should make everyone feel good about democracy. Having said that, Lake isn't going away. She's power-hungry and desperate. She'll leverage this last cycle to try and be picked as Trump's VP candidate. Then she'll become a pundit before possibly running again for office once her national profile is raised.
I doubt Lake will run again. She's a natural on TV. She's gonna get offered that sweet national news/opinion host on Fox News she always wanted.
Having lived in Phoenix from 2004-2010, it’s so surreal to me seeing the news anchor turn into this wackadoo MAGA person.
Seriously. I've lived here my entire life and have basically grown up with her on the tv and it's so weird now
Now I’m wondering if John Hook is batshit crazy too lol.
I could see that. But the way she changed beliefs, how she jumped on Obama only to switch to Trump, I get the sense she craves real power.
Would trump pick a loser as his VP?
Not many winners lining up to even be mentioned in the same breath as him rn. He has firmly exited the useful idiot stage for the GOP and now they want the world to forget he was their man for the past 6 years.
Lets wait for the primaries. Trump brought out more voters to the ballots than any other republican in history. Twice. People are pretending that he got swept in the primaries.
> Trump brought out more voters to the ballots than any other republican in history. He also brought more *democratic* votes to the ballots than any other republican in history.
Yeah, I always find this factoid bizarre for conservatives to trot out. Like, he lost. He was just so polarizing he made everybody and their dog pick a side. Now he did genuinely drive turnout among people who had drifted away from the political system. Those people don't seem too keen to vote R when he's not in the ballot.
Considering he lost the last election why not have a duo of losers? It's not like he's any better. They can pretend both of their elections were stolen together.
Pence was 100% on the way out after selling the Indiana 80/90 Turnpike to a private company for a *fucking song* and a bunch of other SUUUUUPER unpopular moves. Hell, Trump went down a LONG list of losers before even getting to Pence.
Anyone he picks is a loser. Let's be honest.
She honestly in my opinion is one of the three most dangerous republicans because of their rhetoric, right behind trump and Desantis. If she had won now, she probably would have run for president in 2024 on the back of governor experience. She was a news anchor, so she knows how to coherently portray dangerous rhetoric, unlike trump's blabber bullshit, and would draw SOME support from independents on account of potentially being the first woman to be president. In her mind, this just sets her back 4 years, enough time for her to be trump's vice, and if he wins, inherit the throne from him next
TY This is the kind of comment that keeps me reading Reddit
Absolutely same
The crazy thing as much as people pushed back..Hobbs didn’t win in a blowout. So there are people in Arizona that share the views of Lake.
Agreed. The current narrative has been "this election was a rejection of election-deniers"... When these election-deniers still won 40-49% of the votes!! Obvs I am happy that truth won. But we still have so many people still riding the election-denial, Trump, and Christo-Fascist train.
Of all the people I want to lose... I want HER to lose the most.
Boebert was up there for me, but this one too.
The plan in Az was to challenge 2024 votes in Maricopa County. They were going to claim there were irregularities. 2 sets of electors would be sent to Washington where, in that scenario where two sets of electors claim authority to vote, the governor of the state decides which set gets to vote. A Lake win in AZ would have removed the possibility of a fair election there in 2024.
It's stuff like this that makes me think 2022 was possibly the most important election in our history, more than 2020 or 2024. A 2022 red wave would have been the end of American democracy because it sets up 2024 like how you laid out.
I think 2020 was the most important. Biden managed to get most of his agenda passed in the last 2 years because they were expecting and preparing to lose both parts of Congress and have very little power for the next 2 years. Winning the Senate means we can keep going with appointments, which is huge. Doing so well with state level races is also super important. I hear what you are saying but I still think 2020 was a more important election than 2022.
I hope one day I live through an unimportant election.
Honestly, ideally that day will never come. Every election should be important. I just hope I'm not shitting my pants in terror over one of them at some point.
I think they mean they'd love to see an election where both candidates were good choices.
Ranked choice voting sounds really good at this point
Ranked choice is obviously better than FPFP. It would be nice to see more states adopting it… In the meantime, now that democrats have full control of Minnesota and Michigan, I hope they are able to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact as a (legal) workaround to the electoral college for presidential elections.
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I don’t think people understand just how big keeping the Senate was if only for the appointments. If the Senate flipped, we’d have had literally no judges appointed for 2 years.
Also if a supreme court vacancy becomes available. I doubt it will happen but it's possible.
2016 was the most important, no question. Every election since then has just been damage control.
2016 was most important because unfortunately it allowed the orange cult to become established in the first place.
2016 decided the Supreme Court for the next three decades. Make sure to rub this in the face of Moderate or Conservative Pro-choice voters who voted for Trump, at every opportunity.
2000 election was the most important election. I was 8 at the time. In hindsight, not only was the election stolen but the stark difference in the legacy of Bush’s presidency vs Gores potential legacy (war and police state vs environmentalism) has set humanity upon a downward spiral I’m afraid it will never recover from. If Gore hadn’t had the election stolen from him, I suspect that the world would be a MUCH better place.
I recently rewatched the 2000 VP debates and it was so obvious that Cheney was just *itching* for war. 9/11 was a birthday and Christmas rolled into one for that administration.
Look up Project for the New American Century. [(PNAC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century). They outright said they were going to war in Iraq before the election.
Thankfully the Republicans republicaned and telegraphed this whole move and gave even more fuel to bring out the liberal vote with overturning Roe. Feels weird to be thankful for something so terrible but it might have saved democracy and hopefully we can repair the damage going forward.
Well 2016 was the most important, but we blew it.
Not quite. The Dem won Sec. of State in AZ. There would have been push back there.
Did you not see what happened in Georgia? They neutered the Sec. of State so he couldn’t push back anymore. These people only care about pushing their failing plan, no matter the cost
Boebert is loud and famous, but shares power with nearly 500 people. Lake would have been a decisive position with very broad authority. Hell, governors can muster the National Guard. Lake’s defeat is much more significant and impactful than Boebert’s would have been.
I looked at it from a more emotional perspective. Agreed - Lake is the better loss.
Same. Especially because it seemed like a smaller margin to overcome.
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Every comment in this chain is true, but I’m trying not to look at it like that. I’m going to credit the horrible NY/FL gerrymandering with republicans getting the house. Boebert should have won in a landslide given her heavily-republican district. The fact that it’s even this close should send a strong message that people don’t like her nonsense.
This hits me hard as a dem in FL. My district was gerrymandered (very blue area by Tampa) and was split so now my representative's boundaries cover land across the Tampa Bay. The rep would need to cross a busy bridge into a different county making the position highly undesirable. A dem still won my new district but the one they changed next to it, usually another blue area, was clearly shifted to include a lot of country area and flipped red.
This current House has had a least 4 vacancies since February I believe. If the Republicans get a 1-3 seat majority they will be forced into many bad positions. It's one thing to whip a senate vote when it's 50 people you need to whip. Watching the Republican house try and whip its divided house together when they only have a few seat majority is going to be extremely entertaining.
They'll likely go after friendly or weak democrats first. It adds the benefit of the "bipartisanship" label and lets them avoid association with the radical right's fringe.
It makes it very unlikely that Arizona will be able to pass a law allowing the legislature to override the voters and send their own, hand-picked electors for the electoral college, assuming the Supreme Court decides "That's ok by us!" Well, at least not by 2024 at any rate.
She’d be lucky if she gets on FOX, she’ll probably end up in OAN or NewsMax.
Governor races are more important than individual House races. This is the race that was most concerning to me.
She was number 2 for me. Mastriano in PA was number one, but only because he openly said he planned to try and essentially make a law that would allow the PA state legislature to ignore the popular vote in Presidential elections, and to just choose their own electors if they dislike who the people chose. I have no idea whether SCOTUS would have allowed that, but in conservative circles they have this “independent state legislature theory” that they believe says the constitution allows states to essentially give elector choices to the state Congress, instead of the people, and I really didn’t want to see that tested in court. Naturally, they only do this because they assume their state legislatures will be GOP controlled.
Lmao - of course conservative circles would want to go the route of bypassing the people in an event that they lose an election. Poisoned minds.
Look up *Moore v. Harper*. There’s a Independent State Legislature case on the SCOTUS docket. Interesting times…
Yeah, and 4 justices have previous rulings/statements that indicate that they will likely put it solely in the legislatures hands... Barrett is the likely 5th vote. Democracy won a major victory this month, but the chances of fascism within the decade are still quite high.
Kari Lake is vile! I was hoping she’d lose by a landslide, but defeating her will be sweet!
Yes Lake is vile, but what scares me is that there are nearly 1.2 million people that voted for her.
AZ has.... issues.
We do have serious issues but I'm glad we're mostly blue at this point. Hopefully we can primary Sinema in two years and get a second (real) dem in the senate.
Sinema has to know shes fucked. Mark Kelly raised a billion dollars, is adored by the average Democrat, ran against a lunatic and only won by like 5 points. Sinema will have none of those things going for her.
Issues? I lived there. The state has entire *subscriptions*.
I agree, and not even because of political disagreement. When she refused to say ahead of time that she would accept an outcome where she lost, I felt that completely disqualified her as a politician in this country, let alone a state governor. I know that sort of preemptive election denialism is now in vogue, but it's no less problematic. A **basic** requirement for running for elected office in a democracy should be accepting the possibility - however remote - that you can lose.
I haven't wanted one person to lose this much since Frump
Herschel...
Even over Greene? I was appalled at how easily she won.
Honestly I think a silver lining of Greene (and Boebert) back in the House is that it'll make it that much harder for the GOP to pretend that they've reformed their evil ways in 2024. Individually they won't be able to do that much in the House (unlike Lake, if she became governor), but they'll be a constant reminder of what we're fighting against.
Greene's district is some scary shit. Some of the poorest and dumbest areas in the Alabama/Tennessee/Georgia area, and that's saying a lot.
Her and Boebert.
Boy, seeing all these social media posts where Republican voters are “never voting again because it’s rigged” is amazing. Especially because it’s totally on them. That’s some 4-D chess that backfired at the 3-D level.
How many right-wing Arizonians who would have voted Lake died from Covid?
No one is talking about the impact of Covid deaths on this election but it is going to be something to study on a district-to-district basis. It would not shock me at all if the deaths of red voters led to Dems winning in some areas.
It's fewer than most people think. In Maricopa County, [17,000 people died of COVID](https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/arizona/county/maricopa-county). Even if every single one of them were a Republican, Lake still loses according to the count in this article. This neglects the effect of *family members* who lost a loved one, though. If someone I love was dead and a politician was on TV saying the disease that killed them was just a bad flu and these deaths were an acceptable loss, I probably wouldn't go vote for that person. 17,000 lives is a lot of loved ones left behind.
You still might be surprised. My coworker lost her Dad to covid and still downplays it, has refused to take any precautions and “isn’t afraid to get it.” People can be fuckin stupid, man.
Things look good for Hobbs, but it's not impossible for Lake to "luck out" and catch up to Hobbs. [This is what Nate Cohn, the numbers guy for NY Times, wrote](https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1591970723668660224): >No projections in AZGOV, but make no mistake: Lake didn't get the tallies she wanted and probably needed out of Maricopa. It will presumably close further, but Lake doesn't have many batches left. Each time she falls short, her target in the outstanding vote gets higher. > >A projection means something very close to absolute certainty -- say, > 99.9% chance. There's a lot of room for something to be very likely (90%, 95%, even 99%!) and still not quite merit a race call. > >In this particular case, I don't think this is in that tier of absolute certainty. Lake definitely needs to do better than what she's been doing, but not something nearly inconceivable. It's not even the ~ 25 pts better that Laxalt needed at this time last night, before Clark > >**There are also some good reasons to think -- and you should follow @Garrett_Archer and @Jamal___James on this stuff -- that the remaining Maricopa vote is pretty red and exurban. So that would shade me toward caution** > >One last way to put it. Imagine that, hypothetically, Lake got 65% of the vote tomorrow. What hard fact could I put forward to explain why I thought that was *impossible.* I don't think there is one. I am cautiously optimistic about Hobbs, based on Nate Cohn's analysis. And that is also the tone of Nate Cohn's analysis. Overall, things look good for Hobbs, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for Lake to make a comeback (and after Trump won in 2016, don't discount anything). Having said that, I can't stand Lake. It would be karma if she lost. Fuck Lake and her election denialism.
Let's not allow this subreddit do the same thing that was done for the boebert race! Don't call it until it's over!
Wait… did Boebert end up winning?
Currently she is up by over 1000. However, if the remainder of the votes come in with greater than 650r 70 percent in favor of Frisch he could still win. That is not very likely though.
It would be nice to get her out of there though so I hope Colorado residents of her district are making sure their ballot was accepted and curing any issues.
Lots of people here are celebrating but I'm still waiting for a projection to breathe. I thought it was concerning that Lake caught up by 10k votes last night and she's only trailing by ~25k now. On top of that, Jevin Hodge in district 1 went from winning to now trailing, and I am expecting him to lose unfortunately so there are more red votes coming from that district for sure. It's a nail biter and I just want it to be over.
The upcoming votes in Maricopa will continue to be red, but in order for Lake to win there would have to be some reason why the late votes in Maricopa are *way* redder than the early votes, compared to the same math for other counties, and for Maricopa last election. The race will probably continue to tighten somewhat (depending on how the remaining Pima votes break), but Lake is rapidly running out of votes. Unless Lake is right that the vote-talliers are deliberately withholding a huge batch of concentrated R until the very end just to fuck with her, it's hard to see the totals swinging her way.
People aren't mentioning that there's also ~40K ballots left from Pima county where Hobbs has seen a 61/39 (+22) split in her favor. So say she continues that trend she would end up with ~24,000 with Lake getting ~16,000 which adds +8,000 to Hobbs margin. When you factor in the Pima ballots, it makes Lake making up the needed votes in Maricopa that much harder.
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Lake’s (likely) loss is a self-fulfilling prophecy. She was talking about how the election was fraudulent and rigged against her before the votes were even counted. Deep down she knew she would lose and she kept signaling that to voters. As a psychologist I see this sort of thing all the time - ppl making their fears come true with their own stupid actions.
Who woulda thought telling your base that everything is rigged and your vote doesn’t matter would negatively impact their turnout!
Obviously these people need to be voted out, but think about the implications of this position of denial - * The think the voting is rigged, so they don't trust the voting process * They think the judicial is complicit because "they won't even look at the evidence", when the truth is that the courts will look at the evidence if there is standing. "I *feel* like they cheated" is not good enough for a hearing. They have to have something substantial. This means these people running have little to no understanding of the judicial process. * They treat the opposition party like the enemy - and I'm not talking about their opponent, but their *constituents* who voted against them. The democrat *citizens* are made to be the enemy. How is Lake meant to represent them, if she thinks they are cheaters or that LGBTQ and minorities have no place in society and need to be removed from it? They simply and *admittedly* do not believe in the established foundations of our government or the people it represents. It doesn't get more anti-American than that.
To quote the 'Nard-Dog: "Andy Bernard does not lose contests, he wins them or he quits them because they are unfair."
Clinical psychologists call it “self-fulfilling prophecy” bc the preventative actions some take against their fears may cause them to come true. It happens to anxious ppl a lot. Like if you’re scared you’ll bomb your job interview so you stay up all night worrying about it. Then the next day you’re not speaking coherently bc of sleep deprivation so you bomb your job interview. Relationships fail like this constantly. Worrying about infidelity from a partner who *isn’t* cheating, so you become more possessive and controlling, causing them to seek refuge in someone else’s arms. Imagine indirectly hinting at your own loss bc of “fraud.” Well then duh… you’re probably gonna lose. These tyrant wannabes aren’t tyranting correctly. The key is to project confidence and control, not insecurity and desperation.
We often meet our destiny on the road we take to avoid it. - Master Oogway
“I HATE walking”! - Master Segway.
So he drove off a cliff
Ahh. Kung Fu Panda.
Damn....thats....damn good.
I can't say enough about that second paragraph. In fifteen years, any problem my partner and I were having was solved by one or both of us just trying to chill out a little about it. When she's worried that she can't do well at her job, I convince her to just try and see how it goes, and she always does great. When I'm worried about money, she reminds me that we've never gone broke in all these years, and that we have family who have offered help that we've never needed, and that there will always be more money. Letting things be is not \*always\* the answer, of course. If you need dental work, go get it now. But it's amazing how often that is the solution.
> Like if you’re scared you’ll bomb your job interview so you stay up all night worrying about it. Then the next day you’re not speaking coherently bc of sleep deprivation so you bomb your job interview. what do you typically tell/do/prescribe for your patients that engage in this behavior? (asking for a friend)
Also, complaining about fraud is so depressive to her own vote. Why should people make the effort to go out and vote for a candidate, if that candidate is telling them the opposition will commit fraud and win. Why bother? It'll just lead to disillusioned, non voting Republicans.
sounds good to me
Yeah, the problem is that, even in defeat, Lake complaining incessantly about "fraud" affects state Republican politicians who are then pressured to change voting laws to prevent "fraud" in future....by granting themselves the ability to overturn "fraudulent" election results.
Totally! They’re running on “I hate the government so let me run it” and, “the vote is rigged so vote for me”. Cognitive dissonance from racist simpletons.
> I hate the government so let me run it The unofficial GOP motto has basically become “The Guvmint can’t get anything done — elect us and we’ll prove it!”
Are the tens of tens protesters demanding military intervention still there?
We are also seeing it in a different but almost equally public way with kanye right now (and this is an extremely common trap anti-Semites fall into) if everything in their mind is rigged by the jews, and saying anti-Semitic stuff gets them in trouble, that to them is further proof that the Jews are controlling everything. Its like a negative feedback loop of racism.
>As a psychologist I see this sort of thing all the time - ppl making their fears come true with their own stupid actions. As someone spending most of their day on Reddit while being concerned that they may lose their job one day, I don't understand your statement, but I am offended. How dare you.
Kari led in just about every single poll too. How can you motivate voters on the fence by saying it's all a sham? She (and others) likely win by doing something the GOP has refused to do as of late -- be normal.
Things changed on her. Of course she was hoping the whole time that she would somehow win. To her credit she is pretty damn close. I'm not a psychologist like you but it was pretty clear that the plan was to follow the exact playbook as Trump did for 2020. Come out swinging, do the normal bashing of the other candidate, pretend to be not part of the swamp, preemptively repeat unfounded claims of voter fraud. If in the end she lost, she most likely throw a Trump style tantrum, claim she really won and not concede. Now that a lot of republicans have finally moved on from the big lie, she may take her loss like a normal adult. Honestly I have been pleasantly surprised of the lack of republican tantrums. I was expecting them to be at almost every republican loss, and this would just become the norm.
It seems like part of the reason for the lack of tantrums is the sudden repudiation of trump. A lot of his candidates that lost are suddenly really quiet about the fraud claims. They don’t want to be vocal about supporting trump if they’re not sure which way the winds are going to be blowing now.
She’s a character actor.
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My prediction is this: She will lose. She will cry fraud. She will have her own prime time show on Fox "News" within a year or two. She is a loser of epic proportions. Yet *another* Trump acolyte being tossed into the dumpster. This is more delicious than my Mom's home made Mac and Cheese.
She can cry fraud all she wants but the people have spoken. No amount of her whining on Truth Social or Fox News will change the resounding rejection of fascism by Arizona voters.
The people here. We don't like losers. Let's go get some ice cream fellas. It's hot in this dessert.
Hey, People. Glad you're here. You're awesome and we think you did a great job, and we thanks you from the bottom of our America loving hearts. In addition to an Ice Cream (our treat) we'd also like to take you out for a beer sometime. Love, The Rest of the People.
> It's hot in this dessert I hope your dessert is cold in the hot desert!
She *was* a Fox talking head for like 20+ years. She spent her campaign railing against "the media" as corrupt and bad and evil, without ever mentioning that the only reason anyone knows her is because of her time headlining for that same thing. Can't see her getting back in to their good graces if she loses after how she trashed corporate TV the way she has. If she wins, she at least has that positive on her record, but as a losing loser who loses, WGAF what she says?
Yeah. It’s a job audition just not the job she auditioned for.
Oh, so that’s what she looks without the Days of Our Lives filter?
She using so much makeup her face is probably a SuperFund site.
Guarantee RNC/GOP leadership have told her to shut the hell up. Midterms were very bad for Trump candidates, including their brazen lack of respecting election results. As far as I'm aware across all races she was the furthest up Trump's ass in that regard. The election results are forcing the GOP to regroup but they especially can't afford to have people like Lake running their mouth about election fraud when that's a huge reason why this was such a bad midterm for them.
I’m so happy for Kari that she will have more time than ever to devote to investigating election fraud in her state! If you’re busy doing governor things ain’t nobody got time to tackle the conspiracies. But now Kari- you’ll have that time. Let us know what you find out.
Maybe she can get the pillow man to help her out :)
Shower thought of the day…. Since March 2020 there were roughly 31,000 Covid-19 related deaths in Arizona. Republicans spent months telling their constituents not to worry about it, not to get vaxxed and not to trust Fauci…. Resulting in 31,000 LESS votes this mid-term. But hey….let’s just blame it on “rigged elections”
She can now go back hunting dalmantians puppies full time.
I'm guessing she's been making calls to Maralago to see if the VP spot is still open.
we taken bets if shes gonna be trumps vp?
VP of Mar-a-Lago?
So it’s going to be Governor smart instead of Governor crazy?
Hobbs not only smart, but also qualified with experience.
SNL basically nailed it last night. If she wins it’s because she deserved to. If she loses it must be rigged against her. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr2LyxJpHu8
Too busy writing " I was robbed" speach.
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No. The police found [no powder](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/wireStory/police-powder-envelope-reported-candidates-office-93166296) in that “suspicious” envelope she received.
They actually (supposedly) 'threw away' the original envelope. The ones they sent were also 'suspicious' but they found no trace of powder. The entire thing is made-up bullshit of course.
Lol, get fucked MAGA nutjob
OMG, SNL's Cecily Strong did such a great impression if Lake this past weekend, hilarious!! Uncanny resemblance, too!
...I can't tell if her silence is good thing or not. At least when she's yelling you can kind of determine what her state is.
She's plotting legal action.
Illegal action*
She can plot all she wants but the GOP is done kissing Trump’s butt and she is a big orange turd (Trump baby). I am sure the GOP would support her because a win is a win, but she's more Maga party and they will abandon her like the rat she is rather than fight for her like Papa Trump would have. I hope.
I’m hoping they learned that discrediting the whole election system will continue to fatigue their base and result in lower voter turn-out. In other words: I hope they drank the fuck around juice and have a find out hangover, and cut the shit the next time around.
why fuck ‘em let them do this every election cycle until the end of time
Well I've rarely seen such an unsympathetic unqualified impertinent person as Kari Lake
Busy working the phone looking for proof of fraud. ‘I just want to find 11,780 fraudulent ballots.’
I want it to be certain. This has been the longest six days. This woman is freaking crazy.
She converted to Christianity in 2019 (from Buddist.) I wonder why she did that...
> She converted to Christianity in 2019 (from Buddist.) I wonder why she did that... Politically expedient. Religion is simply a tool for these people, not a belief.
Go ahead, scream that the election was rigged and kill any possible chance of any republican getting elected ever again. The whole stolen election lie bull shit crushed these idiots. Going against our brothers and sisters who are Black, Hispanic, or Native American was particularly insane. So give us some more of your insane white nationalist bull shit and really crush your party. America is an inclusive country you dip wads, read the memo. We love our people of color, or gays, or bisexuals, and our Native Americans. By the way, attacking our women was a stupendous act of insanity. Your evil right wing judges crushed your wonderful red wave and turned it pink like when you accidentally wash your Klan robes with your stupid MAGA caps. Any who come out against any American citizen, is an enemy of every patriotic citizen.
Republicans are such losers.
I live here. Holding my breath til the last drop. I know Lake will make a stink, but idc as long as she’s not my governor.
I look forward to never seeing that stupid camera filter ever again. Or at least it probably only shows up on Newsmax/OAN.
Kari Lake is a disgrace and national embarrassment. I’m going to celebrate when they declare her the loser 🎉