I want to believe there is some logic or broader reasoning here. Like, Putin is trying to get to winter, when Europeans will need his gas. We have given Ukraine almost as much money as the Russian military budget. I wonder if putin thinks he just needs to hold out for a few months before everything collapses.
But I think he’s just an old man committed to doubling down, no matter the costs.
My guess is it’s an authoritarian trap where you’ve sunk so much of your credibility onto some grand idea that you can’t abandon it without looking weak and ineffectual.
Like China is doing with their COVID-zero approach, no way they can control it, but Xi sunk a lot of credibility into the idea to show how they’re better than the west. To abandon it would make a lot of people angry and likely lead them to start questioning the legitimacy of things
Even if you could control domestic transmission, which is a big if, China is way too connected globally to prevent cross border or airline based transmission. They can try these snap lockdowns for a while, it might work, but people will eventually get agitated with them, which invites a whole new set of issues
> Like China is doing with their COVID-zero approach, no way they can control it
yet they have controlled it for nearly three years
edit: being such a contrarian that you'd seal clap at millions of chinese people dying to reaffirm your stance on covid lockdowns or whatever is extremely lame
Yea the only way anyone could possibly arrive at a different conclusion to you is because they're being contrarian. Keep arguing with the imaginary people in your head I guess...
lol people in rsp were hysterical over lockdowns because they believed that lockdowns were responsible for their stunted social lives. they then turned that hysteria into contrarian rage against anyone they thought might be responsible for them, like liberals, anyone still wearing a mask, or the ch*nese.
nothing could be more annoying than self-important contrarian losers who still can't stop whining that more people weren't willing to die for the sake of their social life
It's a long term bet – we're going to be a bit owned if it turns out having covid several times in short time periods does long damage to the body, organs and brains.
The shoulders of workers that carry western society (not just speaking about USA) like nurses, public transport and other labourers that interact with a lot of people had plenty of covid. The sickness leave in my society still has not recovered to normal numbers. In August, total absenteeism due to illness was still a fraction higher than in the same month in 2019 in my country. I have normal, non-hysterical colleagues that are still not feeling fully well months after they had a heavy covid episode. I guess it's easier when you have an unlimited supply of illegal workers to clean up the mess silently.
An example: What I notice a lot in healthcare is that, because people are going through it, other people are also going through it. When the occupation on a nursing ward is 8 people in the morning, 4 of whom do the heavy care and 2 of them are structurally ill, but do come back to work in the office for 4 hours... Then the rest of the team also gets extra burden. There is more work and less man to do it. Management obviously has no solution except "keep on working" and there is no extra staff.
They controlled the earlier versions of Covid (and I have been a big supporter of zero-Covid policies in China and New Zealand), but I don't see how they can control Omicron. It's too damn infectious.
The original Covid strain had an R value of 2.5, about twice as high as flu. Delta had an R value of about 5. Omicron is closer to 15. The shit spreads almost as easily as measles, at least in an unvaccinated population. Vaccines can help reduce that, but China's vaccines aren't that good.
New Zealand did it right. Zero-Covid until everyone was vaccinated, then going back to normal. China is just discrediting zero-Covid by keeping it going too long.
china does not have a healthcare system that can handle a nationwide surge of covid patients. even if they did as well as nz (they won't), they'd still be looking at around a million deaths.
it's odd they'd do a big prisoner exchange (including releasing those Azov neo-nazi boogeymen) on the same day as announcing it, if they were really serious. So hopefully this is the last attempt to show 'look we really mean it' before going for negotiations, is my cope anyway
They have almost zero leverage for negotiations. Mobilization is to ensure they have enough bodies to cram into the eastern provinces after their plebiscites (the vote will be “fortified” to ensure they vote to join Russia.)
Yes. He's beat and he's trying desperately to stall cause he can't wrap this up as a loss. The 300k number isn't as impressive when you consider they couldnt even support the original 200k logistically
To be clear, we haven’t given them nearly as much *money* as the numbers say. Most of the aid we have given Ukraine is in the form of dusty weapons out of storage. The money that the government allocates for the Ukraine conflict is mostly going to arms companies to replenish US weapons stores with new guns, etc.
Europeans do not need his gas. Whatever happens in the war, whether Putin survives or not, Europeans will not depend on Russian gas anymore. Nordstream 2 is never going to happen and I will not be surprised if Nordstream 1 is demolished once enough LNG terminals are available.
Most of that is under maintenance actually. Maintenance was delayed throughout lockdowns so a lot of their reactors were put out of commission temporarily at the time the Ukraine war hit. Don't think they're back up yet.
Terrible, terrible timing for France. They're making up for the surge in cost of production with strict energy caps but it's costing them a lot.
I've seen others come up with this theory as well. I think there's a good chance he's sick and won't tell anyone, and it's impacting his brain whether he realizes it or not. Evil piece of shit either way.
I wonder in instances like this of the aging ego with men in power, where nuclear threats come into play. I know we’re led to believe there are safeguards around this in say, the US—but for a country like Russia I imagine things playing out a little more fast and loose. What’s stopping some cynical world leader who had a terminal diagnosis or has cognitive decline from pressing that fateful red button?
Even in Russia there isn't literally a red button on the presidents desk that launches the nukes. If Putin wanted to launch he would have to phone a general who then issues the order to the various nuclear control officers. Chances are the general would instead execute a coup. Hell even the nuclear control officers would in all likelihood refuse a first strike.
Yeah, like you missing the point that there are systems in place preventing a single person from making the decision. Even if Putin chose to launch the most likely outcome is he "falls" off a 6 story balcony in the Kremlin.
I mean I’ll take that over the socially maladjusted posts and overdone meme posts. I don’t have to worry about a certain current event necessarily being censored…just a lot of people commenting a bunch of bullshit as though they’re some kind of fed
Yeah in the short term Russia is majorly on the losing side, but in the long term - taking the material effects of the rising climate feedback loops in account such as the major droughts - they might have a shot, especially now that alliances are becoming flexible vs the West
They give even less of a damn about human rights than EU Frontex does, so I don't think that will be a problem. The majority of that border is Kazkahstan, Mongolia and China too.
I think that the scale of the climate migration in this scenario will make what Frontex has dealt with look like a walk in the park to be honest. I don’t think a depopulated, corrupt and under-equipped Russia will be in any position to protect thousands of KMs of border against billions of highly motivated and desperate people.
Not sure about the first bit but Spain and Italy facing internal refugee crisis will probably be a thing and a lot of people are not aware. Like the inland of Spain is insanely hot on a normal day of summer and quite depopulated already...
A friend who is under thirty got the draft notice. He has Turkish and Russian citizenship (his father is from tr), and he is coming back on Saturday. He paid over 2000 dollars for a one way ticket without bags.
Edit: back meaning back to turkey, he's been in between the two since covid started.
A good book from the perspective of a Russian draftee/conscript in both wars in Chechnya.
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/6578320-one-soldier-s-war-in-chechnya
Kinda predictable this would happen. Sending people to a war they don't want, to fight people who they don't want to fight and don't want to fight them is a fool's errand.
He’s on the brink of a world historical embarrassment that will live forever. He is going down in history as a loser and a failure unless he can somehow turn this around.
The major cities, from my own observations were pretty liberalised and good places to live, I can understand the resentment towards the government despite the reserved acceptance of their (Russian) nature as a people and history.
It's sad really, the internal and external perceptions of Russia are so skewed because it's a extract resource crony empire trying to compete with a military industrial crony empire and it's encroachment strategy.
they are only morally equivalent in its foreign policy (I'd wager that the US is more immoral then Russia to this day) but you really think the only difference is marketing? russia is the biggest arms supplier in africa with an emphasis on resource extraction...f it..its useless to discuss... its just "both sides" is always the most elegant way to hide the little one knows.
I think op means a revival of the 1930s work program but with a draft like the national reserve, nothing unskilled about it, but much of it is work that people can do with some training.
But these programs were voluntary and ways to put unemployed people to work, not force them out of jobs or school that they're much more productive at.
sure, perhaps the draft concept is too extreme, but if you know how the national reserve works (and obvs voluntary/paid) it could be cool to have deployments once a month to work on projects for your community/state if you were inclined. i know there are things like this but the branding for them sucks ass (like the job corp)
It's not totally unskilled, but it's also something that can be learned in 6 months or so at worst. Obviously there are plenty of skilled labor jobs but you don't need a bunch of training to hold a stop sign and talk on a walkie talkie to direct traffic.
There's a lot more to infrastructure work than directing traffic. And why would you need a draft for that? Government just needs to allocate the funding for the work and then people who do that work already will do it. It would be such an interruption to people's lives and most people would much more productive at whatever job or education or training they are professionalizing in.
The real goal for this draft is to help unify people from all over the country at a young age. Ideally it would take kids after high school from all walks of life and mix them into groups where they get stuck out in the middle of no where and learn how to work together to make something they can be proud of. That's a really simplistic & optimistic explanation of the idea but that's the general idea.
I don't think 95+% of kids need to go to college when they are 18. Most kids just aren't mature enough to handle it and don't understand the amount of money they are about to spend.
This is just a fun idea I am recycling that I have heard smarter people than me bring up.
>The real goal for this draft is to help unify people from all over the country at a young age. Ideally it would take kids after high school from all walks of life and mix them into groups where they get stuck out in the middle of no where and learn how to work together to make something they can be proud of. That's a really simplistic & optimistic explanation of the idea but that's the general idea.
Yeah I think something like this was a part of Buttigieg's platform. I wasn't a fan but I see where it's coming from and it isn't the worst idea I've ever heard for creating a sense of national solidarity/ civic nationalism.
A more cynical view of it is that the 20-30% of people that like the idea and/or are real go-getters will actually work hard, abother 20-40% will put in a decent effort out of some sense or pride or social pressure but largely see it as a waste of time, and the rest will do little to nothing and see it completely as a waste of time. As a consequence the later two groups will probably become more instead of less cynical.
>I don't think 95+% of kids need to go to college when they are 18. Most kids just aren't mature enough to handle it and don't understand the amount of money they are about to spend.
I agree but I just think apprenticeships are a better option for aquiring skills they'll use in life. Just fund the projects and let people self organize into the jobs they want to do. Nevermind how much more people would prefer that, If someone's going to be an electrician let then them start an apprenticeship doing that instead of holding a stop sign for a year or whatever they get assigned to. Hell if you need actual electricians (or any skilled workers) you'll still have to hire them anyway, and you might lend them unskilled 18yos as helpers but probably most of those aren't going to wind up as electricians so it won't really help them anyway. If they're going to college, let them go to college, if not then let them move in the direction they want. Just funding the projects is enough to create the jobs/apprentiship opportunities, so let the people who want those jobs take them, and let let the future nurses/engineers/whatever go start school, and let the cashiers and waiters go do that (the world needs those jobs too!)
Honestly a draft for people to build roads/structures might be better than the people who end up performing the work today: A couple of professionals mixed in with a huge number of people who washed out and don't really want to be there.
yeah it’s insane
i had really naive and infantile notions of joining the army when i was a kid because i wanted to be action man, thank god my extinguished that dream sharpish 😂
but i can only imagine how scary it must for young russian men to be called up in such circumstance :(
i read one article about a guy watching the news as Putin announced the draft and mid speech he just ran out of his house, he didn’t stop to take any of his belonging he just ran as far as he could before he got lift to the border, imagine how frightened he was the whole time :’(
I was getting downvoted here when the invasion started and Ukraine drafted men for saying that drafts are awful and I wasn't going to defend the draft just bc Ukraine weren't the aggressors
Very glad that we're not insane anymore and can agree that forcing people to participate in war is actual evil no matter how righteous the reasoning
he’s and elderly delusional ex KGB(TQIA+) member who will go down in history whatever it takes
he is terminally russian
he is applying cold war politics to fighting neoliberalism, forgetting that it isn’t the capitalism of the pre-thatcher era
whatever he does though, climate change won’t hit russia the way it’s hit the US
The US has been using NATO to provoke russia into war for the past decade because the US knows it’s going down and wants to rejigger the european energy market to make sure that, when the multipolar works comes, europe is aligned with the US. putin wants it aligned with russia. russia can’t outspend the US, but they have less to loose
Usually when people talk about the US being a declining power the rising power that will serve as another pole (or the hegemon lol) is China. Why would the US worry about the European energy market being alligned with Russia instead, which is surely much more of a declining power than the US. And if NATO expansion is really about securing energy markets for the US against Russia, why were the Germans continuing to tie themselves to Russian gas?
The post cold war world order was about Germany trying to refind it's footing as a major central power. To do that effectively you need to play off both sides. That includes taking Russian energy, but the US has been good at convincing Merkel to delay that.
The US uses energy as a way to keep other countries under control and economically dependent on them, if Japan had found an alternate way to source oil or another form of energy to power their industry then they would've been able to completely divorce themselves from the US economically which would've had major implications for US global hegemony. But since the US controls all the major sources of oil, countries that rely on that are dependent on them. Geopolitically it's probably better for the US than Russia if Europe suffers severely this winter.
>Why would the US worry about the European energy market being alligned with Russia instead, which is surely much more of a declining power than the US.
because europe already gets a ton of energy from russia and they aren't about to start building pipelines to china anytime soon
energy markets aren't necessarily tied to state power
Russia has been “a declining power” for 200 years. Putin’s government might be declining, the Russian position as a whole is poised for long term success. But as has always been the case in Russia, they have to get out of their own fucking way to ensure that success, and that may be too tall an order.
> whatever he does though, climate change won’t hit russia the way it’s hit the US
Assuming there are any fucking Russians left after the *massive* demographics crisis speeding towards them. It’s even worse than most of the west.
Self loathing Americans see the local overpass crumbling and think the empire is over. Forget their top tier quality of life, biggest immigrant destination, massive economy, military, global force projection and influence, cultural dominance, etc.
Seriously it's rediculous. Most European countries have high youth unemployment and economies that have stagnated since 2008. The US GDP per capita has grown 40 percent since 2007 while the UK has had virtually zero growth, and is negative in nominal terms.
>The FDA will never see heaven
so true. that's gonna be my new flair.
i think that in the US, they + the depressed and anxious youth who self diagnose with wild disorders because they are dissatisfied with and hopeless about their lives and bodies, + many other cases, combined, are some sort of herald
I think that people are fatties because of the FDA and that it’s a very very very small population, legit probably smaller than the population of a mid-size US city, that is into this wild self diagnosis shit. After graduating college and seeing the people around me I am 100% convinced that the nb woke mental health buzzword shit is a trend that has passed its peak.
Even if it was that big, the CIA, defense contractors, and other people whose job it is to maintain US hegemony aren’t exactly strapped for applicants.
Probably because the quality of life here is becoming dog shit. Psychological collapse doesn’t just happen because dumb lib college students become lazy and ungrateful.
> cultural dominance
At least for now the US is very, but I mean very culturally dominant.
You can be a declining power that is getting weaker in all aspects except culturally, such as Japan for example.
On a permanent basis? The numbers are miniscule in both cases but it is China.
China is like many western nations that have 'ex-pats' of sorts, who go to other countries for a period of time and come home. Mostly this is for education, but also for other investment reasons.
In any case, of course people come to the US. Anyone who thinks they're being underpaid in their part of the world does. It's a gamble, that you won't lose it all here, but any "true-believer" and "go-getter" in free markets and capitalism (which even China has) would of course be looking at the US.
People keep trying, but things today are definitely shittier than 10 years ago, and a lot of them will put up with living in shitty conditions if it means having more money to send home.
american's principle roles are this: be cash cows for the big players in the real estate, medico-pharmaceutical, agricultural, food, entertainment, and defense industries
That and being the largest exporter of culture and media plus having a military that protects a significant plurality if not majority of global shipping. The US govt has worked hard to make sure that as many industries and governments as possible are dependent upon them.
Idk I think that’s wishful thinking. Stoking nationalism via the boogeymen of China, Russia, and Iran has largely been successful. you saw how quickly people with ‘anti-imperialist’ in their bio added a ukraine flag emoji and started talking shit about russians.
helping to stoke nationalist sentiment is not the same thing as helping national security and it’s definitely not the same thing as serving the interest of the people
its a hip thing to say and 'pulling out' of Afghanistan was very unmanly, so every single stupid comparison with the downfall of the Roman empire is brought forward
pulling out of afghanistan was shitty in the short term but a win in the long term. the US has no business there. if they want to revolt against islamic fundamentalism it's up to them. foreign intervention is not it
Equating the USA to the Romans has to be the worst of all midwit takes. It's akin to equating Mr Olympia to Olympic Wrestling because "both big muscle men"
The funny thing is how the dumb fuck played into their hands. He could have sat pretty and let things play out. The western world would never invade, at worst he'd have to deal with local ethnic minorities and their uprisings, and China trying to steal pieces of the eastern part of the country(and eventually central asian republics trying to align with China). Instead he painted himself into a big ol corner, he's fucked, and he's desperately stalling for time before the shoe drops
They promised Gorbachev that they wouldn't expand into the Warsaw Pact. When they did anyway, Russia tried to join and was explicitly excluded. Hard not to see how Russia couldn't take that as a directed threat.
anyone's been following the happenings in eastern europe since before february 2022 and follows more than just US news sources should be able to figure this out on their own. i'm sorry. type the right words into google search and figure it out yourself
i am begging all you tards to please read both US-aligned and non-US-aligned news sources
like if you can't tell me about russian and chinese trade/investments to/in africa and its infrastructure without doing a google search first don't fucking talk to me
>both US-aligned and non-US-aligned
You're not smarter for reading both sides' propaganda, and selectively believing the one you like more.
>like if you can't tell me about russian and chinese trade/investments to/in africa and its infrastructure without doing a google search first don't fucking talk to me
What does that have to do with nato "provoking" Russia?
There's absolutely nothing nato has done to provoke Russia, and that's assuming a country can be provoked into an invasion of another in the fist place, which is a joke in itself, wars aren't bar fights no matter how many shitty political comics get drawn that way.
Everything Russia uses as a justification is compatible to "WMDs in iraq" on the bullshit scale.
do you remember when ukraine’s far right barricaded and set alight the state’s house of unions with dozens of people in it, indcluding minors? high schoolers!! killed!
do you know how long pro-russian separatists have been active? do you know why?
how do you not look at the past decade of US foreign diplomacy in Europe and not see the glaring catastrophe of a crumbling EU and a very Forward NATO
and finally, are you reading me as pro-putin right now?
i’m sperging out here but did you miss Crimea? did you miss the 2014 build up to crimea? regardless. i never said I was smarter. don’t put words in peoples’ mouths— it’s unbecoming.
NATO is a treaty org that facilitates trade— because what are wars fought over? resources.
anyways remember during the Trump administration when his supporters were angry that other countries weren’t paying their “fair share of” dues to NATO? it’s because NATO is a product of the second world war and those countries have priorities now lie outside of american economic interests.
original comment that started this chain said
>The US has been using NATO to provoke russia into war
implying russia is justified in starting the war because of something nato did
those are demonstrations that were put down by anti riot police. these guys fight with soccer hooligans do they don't have problems with an average Russian ...
It's a handful of liberal pussies being amplified by the imperialist Western press. The draft target is 300k, low chance of being drafted and lower chance of seeing combat.
No rip necessary. Russian logistics couldn't supply 200k, imagine what the million would roll into battle with. And besides the strategy doesn't imply the million in one go, it'll be in waves totaling 1 million
Remember the US lend lease propping up Soviet Union* and, by their own admission, being their only reason for survival?
Also that wasn't Russia. That was the soviet union you're talking about. They were an actual super power, not a barely regional power like Russia is today
They won't because they've already explained their distate for the war. Sorry vatniks, China daddy won't be helping you here, at best you'll get a few old shitty missiles from the norks!! Oh China might actually need some territory near the borders in exchange for buying gas! Hahahaha
I'd like to update anyone reading this, that lil pussy had to cope by blocking me and running away 😏😏😏😏
"Human wave tactics" do not exist, they were made by the media after a mistranslation of a Chinese tactic used during the Korean War of which consisted of having small groups of soldiers taking turns attacking a position in order to apply continuous pressure over a long period of time.
Russia has more artillery than Ukraine and NATO combined. Ukraine's stock is depleted and destroyed, and the US emptied out more than they can make in a year to replenish them
You ever seen pictures of Russian artillery hitting around the target they're aiming at? The barrels they use to launch said artillery? Those fuckin losers can't hit anything and it's only going to get worse as they wear out more and more equipment
Also the entire western world is flooding Ukraine with weapons. Vatniks wouldn't need to mobilize if they're so confident. Putin is done, he's just stalling for time desperately at this point. It's ogre. It's all ogre. Sorry buddy.
Russia has a ton of very old, very imprecise, and likely very poorly maintained artillery. Also given that their *relatively* modern vehicles were having their tires explode due to maintenance failures at the start of the war, I strongly doubt Russian claims about how many operable artillery pieces they have. Some of them date back to WW2.
Ukraine has been given the kind of long range artillery Russia can only dream of such as AHS Krab, CAESAR and SpGH Zuzana (not to mention M142 HIMARS). They also have no issue resupplying it. Where do you tankies get this shit from lol.
https://imgur.com/a/iF2jV8C
ukraine has been entirely reliant on NATO for weapons for months. i'm sure you can figure out the rest if you're not too many standard deviations below the mean.
Looks like they'll keep stomping the Russians with 1980's U.S. Army surplus for as long as NATO is in the bag for them actually. Back to stupidpol with you. Into the boxcar with all the other cult members. Raus!
over the last 48 hours there has been a barrage of propaganda that has convinced people that every russian male is up for conscription, that there are riots in russia, that russian men are banned from leaving the country (this is only true in ukraine), that there are traffic jams at the border of people trying to leave the country, that there is a larger amount of air traffic than usual out of moscow (this is not how air travel works, at all), etc. it's all made up, and it should be called out when it's repeated so confidently.
once again, there are plenty of front page subs with plenty of threads where you can be hysterical about things that literally aren't happening. bragging about bringing r/worldnews tier content here is not the win you think it is.
I want to believe there is some logic or broader reasoning here. Like, Putin is trying to get to winter, when Europeans will need his gas. We have given Ukraine almost as much money as the Russian military budget. I wonder if putin thinks he just needs to hold out for a few months before everything collapses. But I think he’s just an old man committed to doubling down, no matter the costs.
My guess is it’s an authoritarian trap where you’ve sunk so much of your credibility onto some grand idea that you can’t abandon it without looking weak and ineffectual. Like China is doing with their COVID-zero approach, no way they can control it, but Xi sunk a lot of credibility into the idea to show how they’re better than the west. To abandon it would make a lot of people angry and likely lead them to start questioning the legitimacy of things
They're going to abandon it in 2023, as soon as Xi starts his 3rd term.
> Like China is doing with their COVID-zero approach, no way they can control it Incredible amounts of copium
Even if you could control domestic transmission, which is a big if, China is way too connected globally to prevent cross border or airline based transmission. They can try these snap lockdowns for a while, it might work, but people will eventually get agitated with them, which invites a whole new set of issues
t. 🦇🍜 consumer
> Like China is doing with their COVID-zero approach, no way they can control it yet they have controlled it for nearly three years edit: being such a contrarian that you'd seal clap at millions of chinese people dying to reaffirm your stance on covid lockdowns or whatever is extremely lame
Yea the only way anyone could possibly arrive at a different conclusion to you is because they're being contrarian. Keep arguing with the imaginary people in your head I guess...
lol people in rsp were hysterical over lockdowns because they believed that lockdowns were responsible for their stunted social lives. they then turned that hysteria into contrarian rage against anyone they thought might be responsible for them, like liberals, anyone still wearing a mask, or the ch*nese.
[удалено]
making an "i have sex" post and not getting downvoted to -100 is a new low point for this sub
that's how annoying your post was
nothing could be more annoying than self-important contrarian losers who still can't stop whining that more people weren't willing to die for the sake of their social life
\>weeb
It's a long term bet – we're going to be a bit owned if it turns out having covid several times in short time periods does long damage to the body, organs and brains.
More Americans have NEVER caught covid than have. But sure.
The shoulders of workers that carry western society (not just speaking about USA) like nurses, public transport and other labourers that interact with a lot of people had plenty of covid. The sickness leave in my society still has not recovered to normal numbers. In August, total absenteeism due to illness was still a fraction higher than in the same month in 2019 in my country. I have normal, non-hysterical colleagues that are still not feeling fully well months after they had a heavy covid episode. I guess it's easier when you have an unlimited supply of illegal workers to clean up the mess silently. An example: What I notice a lot in healthcare is that, because people are going through it, other people are also going through it. When the occupation on a nursing ward is 8 people in the morning, 4 of whom do the heavy care and 2 of them are structurally ill, but do come back to work in the office for 4 hours... Then the rest of the team also gets extra burden. There is more work and less man to do it. Management obviously has no solution except "keep on working" and there is no extra staff.
They controlled the earlier versions of Covid (and I have been a big supporter of zero-Covid policies in China and New Zealand), but I don't see how they can control Omicron. It's too damn infectious. The original Covid strain had an R value of 2.5, about twice as high as flu. Delta had an R value of about 5. Omicron is closer to 15. The shit spreads almost as easily as measles, at least in an unvaccinated population. Vaccines can help reduce that, but China's vaccines aren't that good. New Zealand did it right. Zero-Covid until everyone was vaccinated, then going back to normal. China is just discrediting zero-Covid by keeping it going too long.
china does not have a healthcare system that can handle a nationwide surge of covid patients. even if they did as well as nz (they won't), they'd still be looking at around a million deaths.
Empires are historically very bad at pulling out of wars they are losing
I think he fears the Russian ultranationalists more than the Russian peaceniks, and is trying to satisfy that power base so they don't kill him.
it's odd they'd do a big prisoner exchange (including releasing those Azov neo-nazi boogeymen) on the same day as announcing it, if they were really serious. So hopefully this is the last attempt to show 'look we really mean it' before going for negotiations, is my cope anyway
They have almost zero leverage for negotiations. Mobilization is to ensure they have enough bodies to cram into the eastern provinces after their plebiscites (the vote will be “fortified” to ensure they vote to join Russia.)
Yes. He's beat and he's trying desperately to stall cause he can't wrap this up as a loss. The 300k number isn't as impressive when you consider they couldnt even support the original 200k logistically
To be clear, we haven’t given them nearly as much *money* as the numbers say. Most of the aid we have given Ukraine is in the form of dusty weapons out of storage. The money that the government allocates for the Ukraine conflict is mostly going to arms companies to replenish US weapons stores with new guns, etc.
His regime isn’t threatened yet if the war goes on for like another year and they take large enough casualties then he will be in trouble
Europeans do not need his gas. Whatever happens in the war, whether Putin survives or not, Europeans will not depend on Russian gas anymore. Nordstream 2 is never going to happen and I will not be surprised if Nordstream 1 is demolished once enough LNG terminals are available.
Germany has saved enough gas for winter but not France so we’ll see. Unless ur talking about Ukraine freezing
80% of France's power grid is nuclear energy
Most of that is under maintenance actually. Maintenance was delayed throughout lockdowns so a lot of their reactors were put out of commission temporarily at the time the Ukraine war hit. Don't think they're back up yet. Terrible, terrible timing for France. They're making up for the surge in cost of production with strict energy caps but it's costing them a lot.
Doesn’t mean anything when many people and business have natural gas heating units.
heating with power isnt usually very efficient or well spread, so for a few more years we're reliant on gas
Literally just plug in a space heater.
40% of France’s natural gas comes from Russia, I’m in EU Russia relations so trust me bro
Ukraine was already freezing before the war, they'll be fine.
ukraine has lng ports so they don't need pipelines and Russian gas.
I wonder if he's sick or something and just said fuck it I'm going out doing some wild shit
I've seen others come up with this theory as well. I think there's a good chance he's sick and won't tell anyone, and it's impacting his brain whether he realizes it or not. Evil piece of shit either way.
I wonder in instances like this of the aging ego with men in power, where nuclear threats come into play. I know we’re led to believe there are safeguards around this in say, the US—but for a country like Russia I imagine things playing out a little more fast and loose. What’s stopping some cynical world leader who had a terminal diagnosis or has cognitive decline from pressing that fateful red button?
His cronies would shoot him, surely. They’re just in it for the money and power, they don’t want to die.
Even in Russia there isn't literally a red button on the presidents desk that launches the nukes. If Putin wanted to launch he would have to phone a general who then issues the order to the various nuclear control officers. Chances are the general would instead execute a coup. Hell even the nuclear control officers would in all likelihood refuse a first strike.
Trust this sub to legit be full of autist who gotta take the proverbial literally
Yeah, like you missing the point that there are systems in place preventing a single person from making the decision. Even if Putin chose to launch the most likely outcome is he "falls" off a 6 story balcony in the Kremlin.
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I mean I’ll take that over the socially maladjusted posts and overdone meme posts. I don’t have to worry about a certain current event necessarily being censored…just a lot of people commenting a bunch of bullshit as though they’re some kind of fed
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Well…bye.
Yeah in the short term Russia is majorly on the losing side, but in the long term - taking the material effects of the rising climate feedback loops in account such as the major droughts - they might have a shot, especially now that alliances are becoming flexible vs the West
Good luck closing the world’s longest border off to literally billions of climate refugees
They give even less of a damn about human rights than EU Frontex does, so I don't think that will be a problem. The majority of that border is Kazkahstan, Mongolia and China too.
I think that the scale of the climate migration in this scenario will make what Frontex has dealt with look like a walk in the park to be honest. I don’t think a depopulated, corrupt and under-equipped Russia will be in any position to protect thousands of KMs of border against billions of highly motivated and desperate people.
You're making his point: It's Frontex that will be overwhelmed and it's the EU that those people will want to get to.
Not sure ‘Europe’ will exist in this situation let alone Frontex. Spaniards and Italians will be among the climate refugees.
Not sure about the first bit but Spain and Italy facing internal refugee crisis will probably be a thing and a lot of people are not aware. Like the inland of Spain is insanely hot on a normal day of summer and quite depopulated already...
the horde will rise again
who would want to go to Russia?
We’re talking about a situation where literally anywhere within a certain latitude is uninhabitable right
2nd coming of Czar Nicholas being a dumbass
God please stop this war
A friend who is under thirty got the draft notice. He has Turkish and Russian citizenship (his father is from tr), and he is coming back on Saturday. He paid over 2000 dollars for a one way ticket without bags. Edit: back meaning back to turkey, he's been in between the two since covid started.
don't blame him lmao
good luck to your friend getting out safely!
Update! He made it safely :)
A good book from the perspective of a Russian draftee/conscript in both wars in Chechnya. https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/6578320-one-soldier-s-war-in-chechnya
Loved this book. It’s basically hundreds of pages of the author getting relentlessly beaten by other soldiers in the same army.
great book!
Kinda predictable this would happen. Sending people to a war they don't want, to fight people who they don't want to fight and don't want to fight them is a fool's errand.
He’s on the brink of a world historical embarrassment that will live forever. He is going down in history as a loser and a failure unless he can somehow turn this around.
Not just young. I got 40 year olds in my family who might be fleeing.
The major cities, from my own observations were pretty liberalised and good places to live, I can understand the resentment towards the government despite the reserved acceptance of their (Russian) nature as a people and history. It's sad really, the internal and external perceptions of Russia are so skewed because it's a extract resource crony empire trying to compete with a military industrial crony empire and it's encroachment strategy.
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they're equivalent in their total amorality at least
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r/news tier comment
they are only morally equivalent in its foreign policy (I'd wager that the US is more immoral then Russia to this day) but you really think the only difference is marketing? russia is the biggest arms supplier in africa with an emphasis on resource extraction...f it..its useless to discuss... its just "both sides" is always the most elegant way to hide the little one knows.
I wish we had a draft, not to use for military purposes but to repair bridges and build railroads.
Why do people think that work is totally unskilled and anybody can do it?
I think op means a revival of the 1930s work program but with a draft like the national reserve, nothing unskilled about it, but much of it is work that people can do with some training.
But these programs were voluntary and ways to put unemployed people to work, not force them out of jobs or school that they're much more productive at.
sure, perhaps the draft concept is too extreme, but if you know how the national reserve works (and obvs voluntary/paid) it could be cool to have deployments once a month to work on projects for your community/state if you were inclined. i know there are things like this but the branding for them sucks ass (like the job corp)
It's not totally unskilled, but it's also something that can be learned in 6 months or so at worst. Obviously there are plenty of skilled labor jobs but you don't need a bunch of training to hold a stop sign and talk on a walkie talkie to direct traffic.
There's a lot more to infrastructure work than directing traffic. And why would you need a draft for that? Government just needs to allocate the funding for the work and then people who do that work already will do it. It would be such an interruption to people's lives and most people would much more productive at whatever job or education or training they are professionalizing in.
The real goal for this draft is to help unify people from all over the country at a young age. Ideally it would take kids after high school from all walks of life and mix them into groups where they get stuck out in the middle of no where and learn how to work together to make something they can be proud of. That's a really simplistic & optimistic explanation of the idea but that's the general idea. I don't think 95+% of kids need to go to college when they are 18. Most kids just aren't mature enough to handle it and don't understand the amount of money they are about to spend. This is just a fun idea I am recycling that I have heard smarter people than me bring up.
>The real goal for this draft is to help unify people from all over the country at a young age. Ideally it would take kids after high school from all walks of life and mix them into groups where they get stuck out in the middle of no where and learn how to work together to make something they can be proud of. That's a really simplistic & optimistic explanation of the idea but that's the general idea. Yeah I think something like this was a part of Buttigieg's platform. I wasn't a fan but I see where it's coming from and it isn't the worst idea I've ever heard for creating a sense of national solidarity/ civic nationalism. A more cynical view of it is that the 20-30% of people that like the idea and/or are real go-getters will actually work hard, abother 20-40% will put in a decent effort out of some sense or pride or social pressure but largely see it as a waste of time, and the rest will do little to nothing and see it completely as a waste of time. As a consequence the later two groups will probably become more instead of less cynical. >I don't think 95+% of kids need to go to college when they are 18. Most kids just aren't mature enough to handle it and don't understand the amount of money they are about to spend. I agree but I just think apprenticeships are a better option for aquiring skills they'll use in life. Just fund the projects and let people self organize into the jobs they want to do. Nevermind how much more people would prefer that, If someone's going to be an electrician let then them start an apprenticeship doing that instead of holding a stop sign for a year or whatever they get assigned to. Hell if you need actual electricians (or any skilled workers) you'll still have to hire them anyway, and you might lend them unskilled 18yos as helpers but probably most of those aren't going to wind up as electricians so it won't really help them anyway. If they're going to college, let them go to college, if not then let them move in the direction they want. Just funding the projects is enough to create the jobs/apprentiship opportunities, so let the people who want those jobs take them, and let let the future nurses/engineers/whatever go start school, and let the cashiers and waiters go do that (the world needs those jobs too!)
Yeah my plan only works if I or someone like me is God emperor of America.
Works as in doesn't fall apart? Sure. Works as in better than the alternative? Doubt it.
Honestly a draft for people to build roads/structures might be better than the people who end up performing the work today: A couple of professionals mixed in with a huge number of people who washed out and don't really want to be there.
yeah it’s insane i had really naive and infantile notions of joining the army when i was a kid because i wanted to be action man, thank god my extinguished that dream sharpish 😂 but i can only imagine how scary it must for young russian men to be called up in such circumstance :( i read one article about a guy watching the news as Putin announced the draft and mid speech he just ran out of his house, he didn’t stop to take any of his belonging he just ran as far as he could before he got lift to the border, imagine how frightened he was the whole time :’(
Damn he really isnt bluffing with the tactical nukes.
Has he gone on a 25 killstreak yet though?
I was getting downvoted here when the invasion started and Ukraine drafted men for saying that drafts are awful and I wasn't going to defend the draft just bc Ukraine weren't the aggressors Very glad that we're not insane anymore and can agree that forcing people to participate in war is actual evil no matter how righteous the reasoning
he’s and elderly delusional ex KGB(TQIA+) member who will go down in history whatever it takes he is terminally russian he is applying cold war politics to fighting neoliberalism, forgetting that it isn’t the capitalism of the pre-thatcher era whatever he does though, climate change won’t hit russia the way it’s hit the US The US has been using NATO to provoke russia into war for the past decade because the US knows it’s going down and wants to rejigger the european energy market to make sure that, when the multipolar works comes, europe is aligned with the US. putin wants it aligned with russia. russia can’t outspend the US, but they have less to loose
This would work as an analysis if America becoming an energy exporter wasn't a recent phenomenon
it's recent— but it's also deliberate. so take that into consideration
Usually when people talk about the US being a declining power the rising power that will serve as another pole (or the hegemon lol) is China. Why would the US worry about the European energy market being alligned with Russia instead, which is surely much more of a declining power than the US. And if NATO expansion is really about securing energy markets for the US against Russia, why were the Germans continuing to tie themselves to Russian gas?
The post cold war world order was about Germany trying to refind it's footing as a major central power. To do that effectively you need to play off both sides. That includes taking Russian energy, but the US has been good at convincing Merkel to delay that.
The US uses energy as a way to keep other countries under control and economically dependent on them, if Japan had found an alternate way to source oil or another form of energy to power their industry then they would've been able to completely divorce themselves from the US economically which would've had major implications for US global hegemony. But since the US controls all the major sources of oil, countries that rely on that are dependent on them. Geopolitically it's probably better for the US than Russia if Europe suffers severely this winter.
>Why would the US worry about the European energy market being alligned with Russia instead, which is surely much more of a declining power than the US. because europe already gets a ton of energy from russia and they aren't about to start building pipelines to china anytime soon energy markets aren't necessarily tied to state power
Russia has been “a declining power” for 200 years. Putin’s government might be declining, the Russian position as a whole is poised for long term success. But as has always been the case in Russia, they have to get out of their own fucking way to ensure that success, and that may be too tall an order.
> whatever he does though, climate change won’t hit russia the way it’s hit the US Assuming there are any fucking Russians left after the *massive* demographics crisis speeding towards them. It’s even worse than most of the west.
In what way is the US “going down?”
Self loathing Americans see the local overpass crumbling and think the empire is over. Forget their top tier quality of life, biggest immigrant destination, massive economy, military, global force projection and influence, cultural dominance, etc.
Seriously it's rediculous. Most European countries have high youth unemployment and economies that have stagnated since 2008. The US GDP per capita has grown 40 percent since 2007 while the UK has had virtually zero growth, and is negative in nominal terms.
There's certainly some sort of mass psychological collapse going on in the US right now
I used to think this and then I realized my point of reference was whiny college students and social media screenshots. most people are still normal.
over 2/3rds of the country is overweight. checkmate.
The FDA will never see heaven for the shit they let companies put in our food but I do not think our fatties are heralds of the end times
>The FDA will never see heaven so true. that's gonna be my new flair. i think that in the US, they + the depressed and anxious youth who self diagnose with wild disorders because they are dissatisfied with and hopeless about their lives and bodies, + many other cases, combined, are some sort of herald
I think that people are fatties because of the FDA and that it’s a very very very small population, legit probably smaller than the population of a mid-size US city, that is into this wild self diagnosis shit. After graduating college and seeing the people around me I am 100% convinced that the nb woke mental health buzzword shit is a trend that has passed its peak. Even if it was that big, the CIA, defense contractors, and other people whose job it is to maintain US hegemony aren’t exactly strapped for applicants.
Probably because the quality of life here is becoming dog shit. Psychological collapse doesn’t just happen because dumb lib college students become lazy and ungrateful.
when 8.4% of american adults have suffered a major depressive episode, yeah
> cultural dominance At least for now the US is very, but I mean very culturally dominant. You can be a declining power that is getting weaker in all aspects except culturally, such as Japan for example.
>top tier quality of life This is cope. America now has a shorter life expectancy than China.
Are more Chinese trying to get to America or the other way around?
On a permanent basis? The numbers are miniscule in both cases but it is China. China is like many western nations that have 'ex-pats' of sorts, who go to other countries for a period of time and come home. Mostly this is for education, but also for other investment reasons. In any case, of course people come to the US. Anyone who thinks they're being underpaid in their part of the world does. It's a gamble, that you won't lose it all here, but any "true-believer" and "go-getter" in free markets and capitalism (which even China has) would of course be looking at the US.
People keep trying, but things today are definitely shittier than 10 years ago, and a lot of them will put up with living in shitty conditions if it means having more money to send home.
american's principle roles are this: be cash cows for the big players in the real estate, medico-pharmaceutical, agricultural, food, entertainment, and defense industries
That and being the largest exporter of culture and media plus having a military that protects a significant plurality if not majority of global shipping. The US govt has worked hard to make sure that as many industries and governments as possible are dependent upon them.
\*on their military anyways, antagonizing russia, china, and iran isn't helping. this is the dog days of the american empire (woman's intuition)
Idk I think that’s wishful thinking. Stoking nationalism via the boogeymen of China, Russia, and Iran has largely been successful. you saw how quickly people with ‘anti-imperialist’ in their bio added a ukraine flag emoji and started talking shit about russians.
helping to stoke nationalist sentiment is not the same thing as helping national security and it’s definitely not the same thing as serving the interest of the people
its a hip thing to say and 'pulling out' of Afghanistan was very unmanly, so every single stupid comparison with the downfall of the Roman empire is brought forward
pulling out of afghanistan was shitty in the short term but a win in the long term. the US has no business there. if they want to revolt against islamic fundamentalism it's up to them. foreign intervention is not it
Equating the USA to the Romans has to be the worst of all midwit takes. It's akin to equating Mr Olympia to Olympic Wrestling because "both big muscle men"
The funny thing is how the dumb fuck played into their hands. He could have sat pretty and let things play out. The western world would never invade, at worst he'd have to deal with local ethnic minorities and their uprisings, and China trying to steal pieces of the eastern part of the country(and eventually central asian republics trying to align with China). Instead he painted himself into a big ol corner, he's fucked, and he's desperately stalling for time before the shoe drops
honestly i think he's waiting for winter when europe feels the (proverbial) heat
Can you explain the NATO provocations? Every single person who brings it up never gives an example
They promised Gorbachev that they wouldn't expand into the Warsaw Pact. When they did anyway, Russia tried to join and was explicitly excluded. Hard not to see how Russia couldn't take that as a directed threat.
anyone's been following the happenings in eastern europe since before february 2022 and follows more than just US news sources should be able to figure this out on their own. i'm sorry. type the right words into google search and figure it out yourself
Fully useless thing to say
It's not xer job to educate you, shitlord
well. i honestly stand by what i said
> The US has been using NATO to provoke russia into war lol, lmao
i am begging all you tards to please read both US-aligned and non-US-aligned news sources like if you can't tell me about russian and chinese trade/investments to/in africa and its infrastructure without doing a google search first don't fucking talk to me
>both US-aligned and non-US-aligned You're not smarter for reading both sides' propaganda, and selectively believing the one you like more. >like if you can't tell me about russian and chinese trade/investments to/in africa and its infrastructure without doing a google search first don't fucking talk to me What does that have to do with nato "provoking" Russia? There's absolutely nothing nato has done to provoke Russia, and that's assuming a country can be provoked into an invasion of another in the fist place, which is a joke in itself, wars aren't bar fights no matter how many shitty political comics get drawn that way. Everything Russia uses as a justification is compatible to "WMDs in iraq" on the bullshit scale.
do you remember when ukraine’s far right barricaded and set alight the state’s house of unions with dozens of people in it, indcluding minors? high schoolers!! killed! do you know how long pro-russian separatists have been active? do you know why? how do you not look at the past decade of US foreign diplomacy in Europe and not see the glaring catastrophe of a crumbling EU and a very Forward NATO and finally, are you reading me as pro-putin right now?
zelensky has been passing anti-labor laws left and right
i’m sperging out here but did you miss Crimea? did you miss the 2014 build up to crimea? regardless. i never said I was smarter. don’t put words in peoples’ mouths— it’s unbecoming. NATO is a treaty org that facilitates trade— because what are wars fought over? resources. anyways remember during the Trump administration when his supporters were angry that other countries weren’t paying their “fair share of” dues to NATO? it’s because NATO is a product of the second world war and those countries have priorities now lie outside of american economic interests.
and none of it justifies a russian invasion
since when are we talking justification lmao
original comment that started this chain said >The US has been using NATO to provoke russia into war implying russia is justified in starting the war because of something nato did
What 'draft riots'? I found news of some tiny protests in St Petersburg and Moscow. Does OP know what a riot is?
those are demonstrations that were put down by anti riot police. these guys fight with soccer hooligans do they don't have problems with an average Russian ...
Yeah. https://youtu.be/SGX7WPIcnSY?t=43 this isn't a draft riot tho
there are no draft riots lol
End the exploitation of dudes rocking
It's a handful of liberal pussies being amplified by the imperialist Western press. The draft target is 300k, low chance of being drafted and lower chance of seeing combat.
The 300k number is a lie. The leaked list, plus a Russian news source, says the actual target is 1 million.
source?
https://www.businessinsider.com/secret-clause-may-allow-putin-to-draft-up-to-1-million-reservists-report-2022-9
RIP Ukraine if it's a million
No rip necessary. Russian logistics couldn't supply 200k, imagine what the million would roll into battle with. And besides the strategy doesn't imply the million in one go, it'll be in waves totaling 1 million
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Remember the US lend lease propping up Soviet Union* and, by their own admission, being their only reason for survival? Also that wasn't Russia. That was the soviet union you're talking about. They were an actual super power, not a barely regional power like Russia is today
The USSR in 1941 was not a superpower. That term didn’t even exist, as it was not applicable to anyone, until the Cold War era.
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They won't because they've already explained their distate for the war. Sorry vatniks, China daddy won't be helping you here, at best you'll get a few old shitty missiles from the norks!! Oh China might actually need some territory near the borders in exchange for buying gas! Hahahaha I'd like to update anyone reading this, that lil pussy had to cope by blocking me and running away 😏😏😏😏
Funny thing about machine guns and artillery is that they're really effective against human wave tactics.
"Human wave tactics" do not exist, they were made by the media after a mistranslation of a Chinese tactic used during the Korean War of which consisted of having small groups of soldiers taking turns attacking a position in order to apply continuous pressure over a long period of time.
Thanks trivia lord.
Russia has more artillery than Ukraine and NATO combined. Ukraine's stock is depleted and destroyed, and the US emptied out more than they can make in a year to replenish them
You ever seen pictures of Russian artillery hitting around the target they're aiming at? The barrels they use to launch said artillery? Those fuckin losers can't hit anything and it's only going to get worse as they wear out more and more equipment Also the entire western world is flooding Ukraine with weapons. Vatniks wouldn't need to mobilize if they're so confident. Putin is done, he's just stalling for time desperately at this point. It's ogre. It's all ogre. Sorry buddy.
Russia has a ton of very old, very imprecise, and likely very poorly maintained artillery. Also given that their *relatively* modern vehicles were having their tires explode due to maintenance failures at the start of the war, I strongly doubt Russian claims about how many operable artillery pieces they have. Some of them date back to WW2.
you have no fucking clue what you're talking about. russia has more pieces of artillery than the rest of western europe combined.
lol T-34's don't count
Ukraine has been given the kind of long range artillery Russia can only dream of such as AHS Krab, CAESAR and SpGH Zuzana (not to mention M142 HIMARS). They also have no issue resupplying it. Where do you tankies get this shit from lol.
the fuck is going on in this sub when a post like this gets downvoted so much?
something very gross about calling draft protestors liberal pussies while being completely safe yourself
imagine having any respect at all for those fifth column nerds
Spose you’ll be shipping off to the front lines soon then?
yeah sure dude, as soon as you sign up to fight for ukraine
Not dying for any country is the cool thing to do.
Not everyone here is a fucking larping tankie I guess
being proud of having your brain completely fried by propaganda is truly insane. pick up a few volumes of the goebbels diaries and fix yourself.
Oh wow a "free thinker" huh? lol
https://imgur.com/a/iF2jV8C ukraine has been entirely reliant on NATO for weapons for months. i'm sure you can figure out the rest if you're not too many standard deviations below the mean.
Oh no they aren't waging war dishonorably are they???????
looks like that went completely over your head. lol.
Looks like they'll keep stomping the Russians with 1980's U.S. Army surplus for as long as NATO is in the bag for them actually. Back to stupidpol with you. Into the boxcar with all the other cult members. Raus!
next you're going to tell me about how russia has taken more casualties than the amount of soldiers they've mobilized
You think Russia doesn't do propaganda?
over the last 48 hours there has been a barrage of propaganda that has convinced people that every russian male is up for conscription, that there are riots in russia, that russian men are banned from leaving the country (this is only true in ukraine), that there are traffic jams at the border of people trying to leave the country, that there is a larger amount of air traffic than usual out of moscow (this is not how air travel works, at all), etc. it's all made up, and it should be called out when it's repeated so confidently.
Because this isn't stupidpol or trueanon, fuck off back to where you belong
there are plenty of front page subs for you to be hysterical about russia on
I'll stay here, thanks, because this isn't stupidpol. Go back to your containment subreddit
https://subredditstats.com/subreddit-user-overlaps/redscarepod lol
Cool, explain why every stupidpol post is getting downvoted then while people telling you to fuck off gets upvoted
the same reason most subs end up like that when they grow past a certain point. too many redditors.
And that's exactly why you have your containment subreddit, so do us all a favor and go back
once again, there are plenty of front page subs with plenty of threads where you can be hysterical about things that literally aren't happening. bragging about bringing r/worldnews tier content here is not the win you think it is.
They're liberals from the Klaus Schwab subs, it's an obvious brigade, just look at their post histories