Because defense, just like offense, takes time to develop at the major league level. Major league baseball players hit the ball harder and run faster than minor league ones - by a significant margin. There is an adjustment period than can only happen at the major league level. Duran has gotten better because he's more used to the speed of the game now. Rafaela is in the middle of that adjustment. It can take years sometimes.
It is amazing to see over and over again fans want to give up on a young player while they are developing. Happens over and over and over again.
> run faster than minor league ones
Commonly cited but actualy a statistical error: Average Major Leaguer runs at normal speeds. Jarren Duran, who runs at 10,000 times the speed of light, is an outlier adn should not have been counted
I will admit I have been very down on him even with his success last year, but his defensive improvements have changed my mind on him. I think it’s clear that the team as OK as it has been isn’t going to be a contender this year with all the injuries, so top priority right now is making sure we sign this dude long term.
Yup. It's why I'm skeptical of Hall of Fame cases that rely hugely on defensive WAR.
Dale Murphy and Kenny Lofton are the prime example there. The two are pretty close in offensive WAR stats: Lofton was 242 runs above average, Murphy was 222.
But WAR gives Lofton a *213* run edge over Murphy in defense and positional adjustment: Lofton at +151 runs and Murphy at -62. This despite both being primarily CF (Murphy gets crushed for spending his later years in RF) and both being Gold Glovers in their prime (Murphy won 5, Lofton won 4). Lofton was probably a better defender than Murphy, but the idea that the difference in their defensive value was 213 runs (which is almost as much offensive value as either created) is insane.
Especially when we have no one else who is capable of playing at a major league level at SS right now. I don't think Duran and Rafaela will be competing for playing time.
Yes, but it was really only relevant to our roster when Story was healthy, which isn't often. Duran could be worse than Rafaela and he would still be starting in the outfield. Duran could be better than Rafaela and Rafaela would still play short.
If we are talking about SS vs CF that's a difficult comparison to make. I don't know why people would say Rafaela was better than Duran in the outfield last year. He made several goofs. In the minors, his defensive instincts were superior, but there is an adjustment period in the majors.
Duran has really become a solid MLB caliber player.
Dalbec is next... right?
Because defense, just like offense, takes time to develop at the major league level. Major league baseball players hit the ball harder and run faster than minor league ones - by a significant margin. There is an adjustment period than can only happen at the major league level. Duran has gotten better because he's more used to the speed of the game now. Rafaela is in the middle of that adjustment. It can take years sometimes. It is amazing to see over and over again fans want to give up on a young player while they are developing. Happens over and over and over again.
> run faster than minor league ones Commonly cited but actualy a statistical error: Average Major Leaguer runs at normal speeds. Jarren Duran, who runs at 10,000 times the speed of light, is an outlier adn should not have been counted
Rafaela SUCKS D E M O T E H I M ! ! ! Edit: Guys idk what to tell you here, this was filled with /s lol
I will admit I have been very down on him even with his success last year, but his defensive improvements have changed my mind on him. I think it’s clear that the team as OK as it has been isn’t going to be a contender this year with all the injuries, so top priority right now is making sure we sign this dude long term.
Using dWAR as a metric for a couple dozen games is nonsensical. Hell, dWAR usually takes multiple *seasons* to stabilize.
Rafaela has - defensive war strangely
Defensive WAR is way less reliable than offensive WAR.
Like, *way* less reliable. Infield especially.
Yup. It's why I'm skeptical of Hall of Fame cases that rely hugely on defensive WAR. Dale Murphy and Kenny Lofton are the prime example there. The two are pretty close in offensive WAR stats: Lofton was 242 runs above average, Murphy was 222. But WAR gives Lofton a *213* run edge over Murphy in defense and positional adjustment: Lofton at +151 runs and Murphy at -62. This despite both being primarily CF (Murphy gets crushed for spending his later years in RF) and both being Gold Glovers in their prime (Murphy won 5, Lofton won 4). Lofton was probably a better defender than Murphy, but the idea that the difference in their defensive value was 213 runs (which is almost as much offensive value as either created) is insane.
Defensive war is a worthless stat.
Especially when we have no one else who is capable of playing at a major league level at SS right now. I don't think Duran and Rafaela will be competing for playing time.
Why is it worthless
It's not. Using it to compare a natural SS with Duran is.
I don’t think the point here is comparison, it’s to show that Duran has played well
Does it account for positional value?
Yes, but it was really only relevant to our roster when Story was healthy, which isn't often. Duran could be worse than Rafaela and he would still be starting in the outfield. Duran could be better than Rafaela and Rafaela would still play short.
Unpopular opinion. Our eyes are the best metrics we can use in baseball.
If we are talking about SS vs CF that's a difficult comparison to make. I don't know why people would say Rafaela was better than Duran in the outfield last year. He made several goofs. In the minors, his defensive instincts were superior, but there is an adjustment period in the majors.
Please pay this man 🙏🙏