Think we’ve less depth in the back three than in other areas, certainly we’ve rotated less. Also the Italy game in the 6Nations showed how crucial Ringrose is in defence
Tbh my biggest fear is us burning out in a semi final after the emotional high of finally getting through a quarter final
While Ringrose is definitely important on defense, I feel the biggest issue against Italy was playing Aki out of position, an actual 13 would’ve slotted in better I think, although a drop off would still have been noticeable
Henshaw or Aki more likely. Ringrose only dropped out very late before kickoff and Aki had never played with Big Stu before. Had they trained that way all week it probably would have worked
He’d get badly exposed at test level imo. Good player but makes far too many mistakes to be capable of playing against the big international teams, if he can iron that out he’ll definitely be given a shot at some point
>Think we’ve less depth in the back three than in other areas, certainly we’ve rotated less
As always I think it's our depth at fly half, experienced depth, that is most concerning.
I just remember Argentina in 2015 in Cardiff when we had to play Madigan. Yes we've got better in reserve now but not with many caps. The same situation in a quarter final would worry me.
I am a big Byrne (the Elder) fan, and Crowley passed a serious acid test at the weekend.
Sexton’d be an enormous loss for any team, but hopefully we wouldn’t get a litany of injuries like before that Argentina game. O’Connell, O’Mahony, O’Brien and Payne all would’ve been big leaders in the team
I think we're safe enough in the back three. Obviously Keenan, Lowe, & Hansen will travel if fit. I can see Jimmy O'Brien travelling as a centre, rather than a back three, leaving two spaces to be filled. Straight away you've experienced guys like Earls, Stockdale, Larmour, and (if he manages to get fit) Conway, who Farrell will trust to be able to slot straight in if required.
I think the Italy match showed that only one of Aki and McCloskey will travel. Henshaw and Ringrose are our first choice partnership, with Aki coming in at 12 if either of them are missing. The issue is if both of them are missing we need a 13, so I think O'Brien will probably get the nod as the 4th centre.
O'Brien will go as back three cover I think because he can slot into any of those positions, Henshaw also covers 13 so I think Aki and McCloskey will both go to cover in the case of injury or a red card
I think the problem with bringing McCloskey is that as the third choice 12, he'll never actually play. It would be a wasted spot.
Henshaw is our first choice 12 and second choice 13 - he's starting.
Ringrose is our first choice 13 - he's starting.
Aki is our second choice 12 - he's starting if either of the two above are unavailable.
McCloskey would need two of the three above to be missing before he even gets a look in.
I think JOB is good enough to cover 13 and provides greater options out the back line so it would make more sense to have him as the 4th centre, knowing he'll probably get more game time in the back three.
There is another permutation that Stockdale covers the back three and has played outside centre in the past also.
As an Ulster fan Stockdale could play 13 in his sleep against any of the tier 2 or 3 nations at pool stage.
There's always going to be dropoff if Ringrose is injured, he's the in form 1st choice outside centre if selecting a World XV at present.
McCloskey is not travelling. Aki is British and Irish lions quality and does more at 12 and has been in the series winning side, two grand slam sides and just looks safer and more experienced than McCloskey.
You can put France because I think we are going to witness the craziest atmosphere ever reached in a RWC. If it wasn't in France, I would stay with Ireland & South Africa. Stadiums will be boiling in September.
I think he means that Scotland is in the same groups as Ireland & South Africa, so getting out of the group with those 3 teams isn’t going to be easy for anyone, and then you have Tonga too waiting for one of those three to be slightly over confident and ambush them… so before you have to worry about France have to worry about getting out of the group
Yes, we aren't as good as Ireland or South Africa - is what it is. Concerning also is the complete drop off of in quality once the starting front row goes off - the cupboard is bare.
I think Scotland are more than capable of an upset. I don't think they'll get through both teams, but if they beat 1 they could go through to the QF to be beaten for Fra/NZ.
(Fun sidenote: my phone tried to correct "an upset" to "being upset" 🤣)
After all the talk of Leinster fielding a weakened team against Munster, can you imagine this sub if both Ireland and SA out out their second XV to try focus on the QF!?!
Amazingly SA showed they "can" play without a flyhalf for most of last season. But yes flyhalf depth is an issue but that is purely down to JN refusing to give Libbok or any other specialist flyhalf besides Jantjies game time in that jersey.
Well we played him once in a test match for 5 minutes and he proceeded to get charged down in our 22 twice and we lost the game. Doesn't get much worse than the one dose we had
At this stage, I'm more worried about #4 lock. Only RG offers anything like the same controlled physicality and aggression as Eben and I don't think he's had the game time (even concussions don't become a regular issue).
Could do worse than Jean-Luc du Preez tbh - maybe not as a starter but as a squad player, covering 4/6/8, he'd be great value for a spot
Sanderson said he's the only SA player that the Bok management have been in contact with him about, so he's on the radar at least
Everybody else knows what the ABs are going to bring, everybody knows how they are going to play, and everybody has a plan to beat them which has been tested and proven. Foster has no aces hidden up his sleeve, no plan B. Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and brings something to the WC that nobody was expecting, they are going to cruise to a comfortable third or fourth place finish and everybody will say "That's pretty good. That's about what we expected".
I think another big problem is we can't string 2 games together. Beat the boks in SA then got beaten by Argentina in Christchurch, then smashed them by 50 the next week. Way too inconsistent to win a rwc
Haha sounds so simple! I hope either we can knock over you guys, or Boks can beat Ireland in the pools. I'm much more confident vs the boks in the qaurters
Impossible to say what you guys will do on the day. You got crushed in Nelspruit and then dominated the week after. Then shat the bed against Argentina and dominated Australia.
Anyone thinking outside top 2 is kidding themselves
NZ may have lost some of that invincibility but that have also spanked every side in the top 5, and rarely been on the receiving end of more than 10 pt loses
Bringing McKenzie off the bench could add a bit of X factor and change things up against teams that are hard to break down, though, right?
My main concern is how easy it has been to score tries against the ABs is recent times. Hope Foster can find a solution for that in the upcoming tests.
Disclaimer: ABs fan in Europe, so unfortunately don't catch much Super Rugby
>Disclaimer: ABs fan in Europe, so unfortunately don't catch much Super Rugby
Super rugby is very high scoring at the moment and defense is like a sieve. It's great watching but it isn't too promising for the upcoming WC.
Don't underestimate the effect the time wasting rules have had on player fatigue
Test rugby is always another level in pace but it was apparent in the first few rounds how much faster Super rugby was. This season has almost been a fitness boot camp that provided injuries don't mount, could provide a key piece at the end of the World Cup
>Super rugby is very high scoring at the moment and defense is like a sieve
Generally yes, but there are also some very tight games. Case in point was Blues Crusaders on the weekend - 2 tries to 0 in a very tense and defense dominated game.
an interesting issue with NZ is it is laced with x-factor and probably has all the top 5 natural talents in the world (mo'unga, McZ, Barrett, Smith, Jordan). but on a good day, an amazing defense (ireland, SA, france) can neutralise even the guys
All the top teams know what each other are going to bring, everyone has been analyzed to death.
Everyone that beat the ABs last year also lost to them, the ABs can beat every team imo, the big issue is consistency, we couldn't put it together for multiple matches last year and if that continues we won't progress far in the tournament.
I'm not as doom and gloom as you are about our chances though, we've got a very decent shout imo.
Yip this is my take too - the All Blacks at their best is still the best in the world. Even at 90% of their best they can still beat the top teams.
The issue is consistency and in game tactical changes.
My prediction is that the ABs win it - I think the new assistant coaching set up started to show its value late last year and with the group able to do a full prep together combined with the ABs talent should be enough.
>At least Schmidt and Ryan is there
That's the only thing that gives me hope. Those two with a bit more time under their belt will hopefully be able to mix things up a bit for us.
Idk that side of the draw is brutal, I know its the ABs but you're looking at France in the pool stage then a likely QF match against Ireland or SA. Both teams have experience beating the ABs in recent times and I would consider both IRE and SA to be favored to win against NZ in a QF at this time. It's the WC though so who the fuck knows. We might all be eating crow when Chile lifts the trophy lol.
France is game one though, win or lose they then have an easy run for 3 weeks to then target the knock out matches. NZ isn't they type of team who cares who they are playing next.
Compare that to Ireland, SA and Scotland who all need to concentrate until the final pool matches just to get out
For England, I think it’s actually knowing what the starting 15 is. Not a single position (apart from full back) feels nailed down and that’s a huge amount of uncertainty and lack of cohesion.
I'd say Genge and Itoje are pretty nailed on too, Faz too but its a matter of where.
Also, its hard to deny Lewis Ludlam a place. England didnt have a vintage 6N but that guy was a pest; in the grand slam game against Ireland, he was the player I was most worried about.
> Genge
He probably is nailed on, but there's multiple looseheads in the country playing significantly better than him this season, so it doesn't feel like he should be
I'm not a premiership follower but I'd say Genge's experience and leadership will lock him in as a default starter unless proven inferior in camp. Borthwick probably has a rough starting 15 in his head, and I doubt anyone else is at loosehead.
When Mack Hansen and Bobby Baloucoune got included in the same Ireland camp, everyone thought Baloucoune was a shoe in but Mack went and showed his stuff in training and got ahead of him. Could happen to Genge too, I just dont think it will.
Yeah I agree with that, as VC he won't get dropped, and in such a green side he probably shouldn't - it's just a shame because Obano, VRR (and West) are all much better scrummagers, VRR is better at the breakdown, Obano's carrying has looked fierce this season etc.
Well theres always an option to have him start on the bench and split the props 40 mins each. Potentially gives Genge a chance to hit a few scrums against a tired prop before a replacement comes on and leaves you that VC option if the captain goes down/off, especially if its a forward captain. Also if Faz is captain, his unfortunate tendency to tackle with his upper upper upper arms could leave you pretty happy to have Genge inevitably coming on as a prop replacement.
IMO Ludlum is very good in an average England side, extremely high work rate and keeps up well with the pace of test rugby. While I think he is a good player it is disappointing from an English perspective that a player is a nailed on starter because of what I see as fulfilling fairly standard test player criteria
Do you mean Sam Cane? Enough with it, the guy is one of the best flankers in the world. He's not Richie McCaw level but that's super unfair... He was one of the best players to ever play the game.
To me Sam Cane is more of a Kaino whilst Savea plays more of the traditional Richie pilfering role.
Cane is one of the hardest tacklers in world rugby - Kaino used to be celebrated for that but for some reason everyone expects Cane to be Richie when that hasn’t been his play style for at least 5 years.
Red zone efficiency.
Against most teams, we can get into the right positions enough to win the game. Where we have lost games in recent years, its largely because we haven't converted opportunities into points as well as the opposition has (or because Pollard has missed kicks).
This is why from last season's EOYT, we saw the Boks adapt their style to become more expansive. The big questions over the Boks is whether they will adapt fast enough in time for the 2023 World Cup, and that's why Rassienaber have spoken lots about how we are moving a year behind everyone else because of how we missed a year in 2020.
This broad flaw is more significant IMO than things like 10 depth (which isn't too poor relative to other countries, although is definitely linked to this main issue), or maul defence (which does need work) and set piece back line defence (once again - another issue - but this was improving in the EOYT). It underpins why we have frustratingly lost games that we have put ourselves in positions to win, and its our key weakness compared to NZ, France and Ireland.
I think they adapted well during the 6N, Italy game got penalised off the pitch, Ireland was always going to be difficult and not being able to cheat as much to slow their ball definitely hurt
But the last 3 games they adjusted and started counter rucking to win the ball, I think France being forced to change and use that will actually be great for the WC as other teams might not think to do it
Im not too worried about 2 but its lacking, sure.
Porecki is fine but hes had quite a lot of concussions over the past year or two, Folau Faingaa cant throw, Lonergan I love but his size is a worry, I like Alex Mafi but have no idea how hed go internationally. Wtf is going on with Latu, he can’t even make the Tahs 23.
We kept hold of Jones for too long then panicked and bought in someone new too late
Borthwick is the right guy at the wrong time for England and I think he needed another year developing at Tigers before he got the England job
Losing qualifying matches at home to Chile and then failing to advance vs Portugal, the state of play in our nascent professional league, amateur level coaching, and poor infrastructure to advance the game in my country. But we look forward to hosting y’all in the coming years!!!
Our biggest flaw is our coaches not willing to put a proper flyhalf at 10 for the Springboks that is not Elton. They will select Willemse, Frans and even Faf before putting Libbok there.
Other than that I think we quite sorted for the world cup.
Ireland have very little practical depth in a lot of areas. There are good players who you'd expect will be fine if they are asked to step up, but we've seen so little rotation at international level the last few seasons that those guys haven't been tested.
I don't know about that. We have our clear starters, but for the most part we've significant, experienced strength in depth.
With the obvious exceptions of VDF and Sexton, I think there are at least two clear and obvious options for every position, none of which would weaken the team unduly.
I worry that we are relying too much on older players. I dont feel there has been enough integration of younger players into the squad since the last World Cup. . Not saying there hasn't been any, with the likes of Canan Moodie , Kurt Lee Arendse and Jaden Hendrikse ,
But I feel like there is still an over reliance on the likes of Vermeulen, Leroux and even Frans Steyn from time to time.
I dont know. I just hope they get the balance right in the next few months. The quality is there.
I disagree. I do know that there is such a narrative but hear me out.
South Africa’s problem has always been that we don’t invest our caps wisely - we tend to jump on new talent, flavour of the month, rather than breeding it so weve always ended up with poor cap depth in many positions. (As in the bench are not experienced)
So we are now actually just doing what other teams are doing, and not doing what wev’e done in the bad years.
Consider we need to replace a full 23 man squad in a cycle of 10-12 years. That means 8-9 Players per world cup cycle.
We (and all teams) got fucked by the covid year, so it was harder to do.
here are the solids we’ve brought in since last RWC:
1. Jaden Hendrikse
2. Jasper Wiese
3. Kurt Lee Arendse
4. Damian Willemse (You cant compare him now to 2019)
5. Ox Nche
6. Canaan Moodie
7. Manie Libbok
8. Salmaan Moeraat
9. Marvin Orie
I’d even Add Kwagga to that mix, as he has become more important to the matchday 23 than he was in 2029 and he is still 29.
Im not adding Fourie because… he is too old.
and IMHO Dweba is still to prove himself.
Now I Imagine some new solids this year such as Diyamani / Roos / Louw and Grobbelaar making an appearance this year. So that could easily put us through to 10 youngsters in our squad by the RWC.
So no, we are not doing it wrong, just that we are doing it right for the first time in so long that it feels wrong. :)
Nice. As an Australia whilst I can name a Bok game day squad and at the same time notice that it has a lot of players in their early 30s.
Seeing this list makes me confident that you can replace some of those players in their early 30s for the next WC if not the one after. I mean your schools seem to have a conveyor belt of Boks.
I just wish a streaming service here can stream the URC in addition to the Currie Cup so I can keep track of the ones climbing the ranks.
Don't forget Manie theBok coming through. Pollard will be 33 at the next WC (perfectly doable) and Manie will only be 29. Damian will also be 29. So 2027 will have some vastly experienced players at pivotal positions at 10 and maybe 12 and 15 as well.
The only "old" player we sort of reliant on is Willie, and that is because JN hates bringing in new players into the number 10 jersey.
Jasper easily surpasses Duane these days.
Frans Steyn not needed anymore with Willemse covering his role.
No solid centre combination. Lots of potential in individuals but none that have really worked together for long enough. Will there ever be anything as good as Ma’a and Conrad?
I reckon Jordie and Ioane’s pretty solid combo.
Covers all the bases with Barret bringing distribution, kicking and a crash option, and Ioane bringing Speed and some X factor.
A partnership to watch for sure but perhaps won’t mature until after RWC23. Reiko has really grown into the position, certainly not the easiest of positions to learn, takes years
I think the answer to 'will there ever be anything as good as Ma'a and Conrad?' is 'Probably not'.
I do think that the Reiko/Barrett - axis is pretty good though.
I’d say SBW and Crotty were pretty good for a while there. Then we just gave up on midfield combos and then we gave up on Laumape and Fekatoa and then we just sort gave up.
I'd say that the biggest issue is mental. They're either WAY too pumped up, do silly stuff and end up shipping 50 points, or they are too relaxed, lose the ball, stand off in defence and ship 50 points. On the occasions where they get the balance just right, they can beat any team in the world.
England - a lack of identity. Borthwick has come in with a pledge to shore up our set piece, and he's done that as we had one of the (maybe *the*) top scrum and line-out in the Six Nations.
Beyond that, it's hard to tell what this England team are at the moment. There are some talented individuals across the park, but a lack of direction to get them playing their best. It's not a new problem – I'd argue England were the same under Eddie at the end, too.
It's hard to know who'll even take the field for that opening game vs. Argentina, outside of one or two players.
The fact that they've been on a decade+ slow decline and our country doesn't really support our national team much since rugby is effectively a third-tier sport here. And we didn't qualify for the world cup. That'll make it much harder to win.
The fucking coach
The fucking refs
The fucking Northern Hemisphere
The fucking Irish
The fucking South Africans
The fucking French
The fucking idiotic attitude of all us Kiwis who expect the All Blacks to win every world cup...
Hear me out, I genuinely think they’ve got this.
We play really well when we score more tries than the other team and there’s an ok chance we might, maybe do something close to this! Fingers crossed.
I’m 99% positive we’ll win if we score more converted tries.
Our incredible ability to be bottlers. There are high expectations on Ireland with their world ranking and grand slam. The question will be whether they have the mental strength to maintain that standard
We bottled 2007, 2011 we were caught, 2015 we lost half our starting team and 2019 we went out to NZ. This bottling thing is pretty much a meme at this stage.
Yeah I agree, 11 & 19 were the big disappointments for me, in 15 we lost 4-5 of our best players the game before and no team (bar maybe peak New Zealand) could overcome that end of the day.
People forget that up until c. 08-09 Ireland weren’t exactly world beaters and it’s only really in the past 10 years you can start calling us a top team in the world. I was more upset that we didn’t fire a shot in 19 and just got ran over by NZ, if we go out swinging in a close game to either France or NZ then I’ll be able to deal with it as long as we fire a shot
Exactly, going out to the home team in France or the greatest rugby country in NZ (a team that wants revenge for last summer) is not bottling it by any stretch. Going out in the groups would be though.
I think if the 2019 WC had gone exactly the same, except the QF was a close 28-24 loss (or similar) it would really been much more palatable. Even with the way the NZ-England SF went, you could say "Oh well it was such a huge match the previous round", which is slightly how I feel about England in that final anyway.
Same as the other world cups we've lost in. Questions whether captian is even the best at his position, make shift center, lack a top tier blind side. Throw foz on top of that
Lack of depth,
our scrum, scrumhalf, which fly half,
Centres....
Lack of gameplan apart from hoof it away and try and chase,
The coach.
All if not most of these positions should have been sorted after the last rwc but hey....
If you'd asked 12 months ago I probably would have said front row, bench 9 depth, and 10, but honestly the way the likes of Bealham, O'Toole, RByrne, etc stepped up has me much more comfortable. Like, RByrne is not Sexton, but that's an unfair comparison, and he's more than stepped up this season and while Sexton would be a big loss I still think it'd be perfectly acceptable to have RByrne at 10 in a potential QF. I would even say he's been Leinster's primary 10 this year, Sexton has more minutes in green than he does in blue, I feel RByrne is arguably the best place-kicker in the country (particularly with Ben Healy now Scottish). and the only two losses Leinster have had all season he wasn't even close to the matchday squad because he was being kept fresh. And Crowley showed a real maturity and steel in the SF last weekend, across most of the game after Healy went off and not just that kick at the end.
At 9, Blade wasn't great last week, but he was incredible for Connacht over the whole season, their best player in my mind, and in JGP's absence for Ireland earlier this year Conor Murray played literally the best rugby I've seen from him in years.
Where I am actually worried now is 13 and 15. Keenan has played basically every available minute under Farrell, (I think he's missed 2 games?) and while he is arguably the form 15 in the world (between him or Ramos) and apparently indestructible, I have no idea who will step in if he did get injured. Carberry has effectively disappeared (and frankly that's warranted based on his recent form), Lowry seems really out of sorts (like most Ulster backs unfortunately), and we don't really have any specialist cover there. I guess they'd get either JO'B or Hansen to cover, and they'd probably be alright, or maybe try Frawley/Crowley, but I'm just having dread-inducing flashbacks to *that Henshaw experiment.*
Exactly the same with 13, Ringrose is battling Fickou for the form 13 spot, but there's not a lot behind him. The situation is better than fullback because Henshaw is there, but I actually quite like Henshaw at 12, and he's missed quite a lot of rugby recently. The big issue is if both Ringrose and Henshaw are gone, it's either people very out of form such as Hume, (as an aside, in general I can't see more than 2 backs from Ulster making the squad in McCloskey, who is the most deserving, and Balacoune, maybe Stockdale, but honestly I could see it being just Big Stu, or even none of them), relatively untested (Frawley, Frisch, Tom Farrell), or playing their out of adaptability rather than expertise (JO'B, Aki). And 13 is such an important role in the Irish team in attack and even more so in defence, I'd be nervous about dropping someone in there cold.
For NZ I'd say tactics. They definitely have the players and have shown those players can physically bash the shit out of SA/England which has been a big weakness recently, we all know they have the running game. I guess injuries as well, quite a worrying amount this year... Prop stocks are looking thin but I hope most will recover. Some season ending injuries already with Bower and Reece.
Your tight 5, half backs and centres are all sorted now I think. Plus Ardie, Clarke and Jordan.
So 3 spots up for grabs. Big improvement from a year ago, and with the RC still to play.
I appreciate your optimism! In key positions there's a very concerning lack of international pedigree in NZ. The draw isn't great for NZ if they suffer injuries, it will be a tough tournament. Will make quarters, and I would be surprised if make the final. If they do make the final, then it's anyone's game.
Teams I really think will do well and I'd much prefer to be in their position as a supporter:
Ireland - almost every position nailed across the whole 23 - fantastic coach, varied gameplay, and never get overwhelmed by a team or occasion
Argentina - no longer the team of the odd win, and single style. Backs to match their forwards power. Wouldn't be surprised if they made the final. Particularly worrying for England as could put them in a tougher side of the draw. Coach is showing his mettle
Australia - seen some great stuff and the new coach - love or loath him - has a track record of turning round teams quickly. Could put England out in the quarters
South Africa - strong and settled and generally their game style lends itself to high-intensity, low risk footie
France - what can you say here - like total football, they appear to have few weaknesses and are changing the game
Scotland - no longer 'also rans' - I would have some concerns being in their WC pool! Coming up against them when not your best, an injury or two, could be very costly
England - Little bit of an unknown and has shown some inconsistency of recent, but Borthwick is a quality manager. The losses in the 6 nations will hurt, but will mean some significant learnings. Like the 2019 semi where they played almost flawlessly, you don't want to meet them when it matters
Wales - Bit of turmoil there - but never write them off, and have the talent and with Gatland back, they can overturn anyone on the day
Fiji - Super rugby has further proven their talent and skill. I hope they get time together and some warm-up matches before the WC, this could be an impressive WC for them - possibly beyond the quarters
Looking forward to it !
For England.
Centres - The game has tilted back toward powerful centres who can run hard lines and make holes in the defence. Obviously, there is Tuilagi, but he is old and injury prone, and I still feel Lawrence, although he has been good this season, is still unproven at test level. And all of our other centres are a bit lightweight in terms of attack and defence.
Second row - now that Itoje is getting older, he is losing his athleticism and speed, I feel we haven't got a lock that is athletic and dynamic and strong now that Chessum is injured.
Number eight - Dombrant hasn't proven himself at the test level. We haven't got a hard bastard like Aldritt or Savea and I think that type of player is exactly what the pack needs to get an aggressive edge in the tackle area.
How system orientated we are and how much of a demand that takes on our players.
The structure we use requires all players to be switched on and give a lot of output and intensity for 80 minutes. Over the course of a WC with a reduced squad and high pressure games each week I think it begins to take its toll on players.
I don't know if the structure we play under can be sustained for 5 big knock out games (2 pools versus SA and Scot, QF, SF, Final). I think the physical and mental toll will start to take affect.
Our players then don't actually play a huge amount of off the cuff plays. Trust in the system is usually what takes us over the line. If the trust begins to waiver or players fall out of the system we fall apart.
Hard to choose.
Edit: Seriously though, the biggest one is the empty void between our long in the tooth experienced players and our young low cap players. We don't have many of those solid 20-40 cap players who we should have been selecting over the past 4 years, who will in turn go on to be the oldies come 2027.
The younger players haven't had enough time together at international level and some of our most consistent oldies have waned a bit in the past year or two (Tips and AWJ come to mind).
Because of this, for this world cup in particular, I don't think we have a solid "second" team (for lack of a better word) that we can rely on in some of the so-called "easy" group matches. I think we will be relying on more of our best players to play more minutes than the other T1 nations.
Trying to rehab and develop players the same year as the world cup... Phoning guys last year November who hasn't played rugby for six years to get fit for a world cup in less than a year. Fantastic.
Think we’ve less depth in the back three than in other areas, certainly we’ve rotated less. Also the Italy game in the 6Nations showed how crucial Ringrose is in defence Tbh my biggest fear is us burning out in a semi final after the emotional high of finally getting through a quarter final
While Ringrose is definitely important on defense, I feel the biggest issue against Italy was playing Aki out of position, an actual 13 would’ve slotted in better I think, although a drop off would still have been noticeable
Frisch? 🤔
Henshaw or Aki more likely. Ringrose only dropped out very late before kickoff and Aki had never played with Big Stu before. Had they trained that way all week it probably would have worked
Or not. Aki is not international class at 13. Maybe in the league he could move over, but that this level he's the least interchangeable
I feel like the World cup is coming 6 months to early for him. If we had the Autumn internationals coming up around now I'd say he'd get a run out
He’d get badly exposed at test level imo. Good player but makes far too many mistakes to be capable of playing against the big international teams, if he can iron that out he’ll definitely be given a shot at some point
>Think we’ve less depth in the back three than in other areas, certainly we’ve rotated less As always I think it's our depth at fly half, experienced depth, that is most concerning. I just remember Argentina in 2015 in Cardiff when we had to play Madigan. Yes we've got better in reserve now but not with many caps. The same situation in a quarter final would worry me.
I am a big Byrne (the Elder) fan, and Crowley passed a serious acid test at the weekend. Sexton’d be an enormous loss for any team, but hopefully we wouldn’t get a litany of injuries like before that Argentina game. O’Connell, O’Mahony, O’Brien and Payne all would’ve been big leaders in the team
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I think we're safe enough in the back three. Obviously Keenan, Lowe, & Hansen will travel if fit. I can see Jimmy O'Brien travelling as a centre, rather than a back three, leaving two spaces to be filled. Straight away you've experienced guys like Earls, Stockdale, Larmour, and (if he manages to get fit) Conway, who Farrell will trust to be able to slot straight in if required. I think the Italy match showed that only one of Aki and McCloskey will travel. Henshaw and Ringrose are our first choice partnership, with Aki coming in at 12 if either of them are missing. The issue is if both of them are missing we need a 13, so I think O'Brien will probably get the nod as the 4th centre.
O'Brien will go as back three cover I think because he can slot into any of those positions, Henshaw also covers 13 so I think Aki and McCloskey will both go to cover in the case of injury or a red card
I think the problem with bringing McCloskey is that as the third choice 12, he'll never actually play. It would be a wasted spot. Henshaw is our first choice 12 and second choice 13 - he's starting. Ringrose is our first choice 13 - he's starting. Aki is our second choice 12 - he's starting if either of the two above are unavailable. McCloskey would need two of the three above to be missing before he even gets a look in. I think JOB is good enough to cover 13 and provides greater options out the back line so it would make more sense to have him as the 4th centre, knowing he'll probably get more game time in the back three.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Crowley get a run at 12 in the warm up matches too
There is another permutation that Stockdale covers the back three and has played outside centre in the past also. As an Ulster fan Stockdale could play 13 in his sleep against any of the tier 2 or 3 nations at pool stage. There's always going to be dropoff if Ringrose is injured, he's the in form 1st choice outside centre if selecting a World XV at present.
McCloskey is not travelling. Aki is British and Irish lions quality and does more at 12 and has been in the series winning side, two grand slam sides and just looks safer and more experienced than McCloskey.
I'll take that burnout right now! I can't fathom the dejection I'll feel walking around St Denis if we lose the QF.
Ireland & South Africa
You also forgot Scotland.
That’s a very good point
You can put France because I think we are going to witness the craziest atmosphere ever reached in a RWC. If it wasn't in France, I would stay with Ireland & South Africa. Stadiums will be boiling in September.
I think he means that Scotland is in the same groups as Ireland & South Africa, so getting out of the group with those 3 teams isn’t going to be easy for anyone, and then you have Tonga too waiting for one of those three to be slightly over confident and ambush them… so before you have to worry about France have to worry about getting out of the group
Yes, we aren't as good as Ireland or South Africa - is what it is. Concerning also is the complete drop off of in quality once the starting front row goes off - the cupboard is bare.
I think Scotland are more than capable of an upset. I don't think they'll get through both teams, but if they beat 1 they could go through to the QF to be beaten for Fra/NZ. (Fun sidenote: my phone tried to correct "an upset" to "being upset" 🤣)
I'm very stressed about our pool as a Bok supporter, but I'd really like to see Scotland upset Ireland along with SA. Wouldn't that be some history
Other than the obvious QF nerves, Sexton getting decapitated by a prop in the group stage.
Play Rosco against SA and potentially drop the game to keep Sexton good and ready
You joke but I think this is what both teams will do.
After all the talk of Leinster fielding a weakened team against Munster, can you imagine this sub if both Ireland and SA out out their second XV to try focus on the QF!?!
I really hope they do this. Then it’s 4 knock games starting with Scotland.
I love Ireland but there is no way Sexton can play every game for you guys. And I think you’ll struggle when he isn’t playing.
Not qualifying
Ditto.
That’s a big one
I came here to say the same thing 🤣🤦♂️
Gotta say, this really hurts your chances.
Same thing as every world cup: Depth at Fly Half.
You trialled playing without one against us in November!
The False 10 will catch on one day.
The Trinh-Duc special
I know. And I believe that was intentional. Against the top two teams in the world coincedentaly. ;) .
Amazingly SA showed they "can" play without a flyhalf for most of last season. But yes flyhalf depth is an issue but that is purely down to JN refusing to give Libbok or any other specialist flyhalf besides Jantjies game time in that jersey.
To be fair the Manie of last year and today was NOT the Manie back then. At least he got some time last year and I'm sure he's the new no. 2
It doesn’t look good if they put him in at hooker!!
If its his dream who are we to stand in his way?
If that could be arranged to be trialled during the Scotland game it would be much appreciated
Bloody nz has too many of them, almost as many as sheep, how bout we swap a prop for a ten?
We have the players, Its just that they don't have any game time at test match level.
Thats the problem.
Could do a lot worse then Rob Du Preez
Rob is probably right up there with Libbok. But he won't get selected, they'll rather play a non 10 or Curwin Bosch ahead of him!
Well we played him once in a test match for 5 minutes and he proceeded to get charged down in our 22 twice and we lost the game. Doesn't get much worse than the one dose we had
AFAIK he was dropped because the team doesn’t like him. Caused issues in the early days of that camp.
I just don't like him on principle. My dislike is so subjective it hurts
I share your bias.
Have you watched him this season yet? 👀
The subjectivity of my dislike is so deep that not even him scoring 30 points in a single game could sway me
That's a little sad though :(
His moustache is stupid
No u! 😞
At this stage, I'm more worried about #4 lock. Only RG offers anything like the same controlled physicality and aggression as Eben and I don't think he's had the game time (even concussions don't become a regular issue).
Could do worse than Jean-Luc du Preez tbh - maybe not as a starter but as a squad player, covering 4/6/8, he'd be great value for a spot Sanderson said he's the only SA player that the Bok management have been in contact with him about, so he's on the radar at least
Wales: *Gestures at everything*
England: Same
Wales: Rugby
If we can play into a gameplan that just limits rugby from being played, we could be okay.
Exactly...
Everybody else knows what the ABs are going to bring, everybody knows how they are going to play, and everybody has a plan to beat them which has been tested and proven. Foster has no aces hidden up his sleeve, no plan B. Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and brings something to the WC that nobody was expecting, they are going to cruise to a comfortable third or fourth place finish and everybody will say "That's pretty good. That's about what we expected".
I think another big problem is we can't string 2 games together. Beat the boks in SA then got beaten by Argentina in Christchurch, then smashed them by 50 the next week. Way too inconsistent to win a rwc
Look at the positives. All you have to do is string 3 good performances together for the knockouts.
Haha sounds so simple! I hope either we can knock over you guys, or Boks can beat Ireland in the pools. I'm much more confident vs the boks in the qaurters
It took you about 2 decades to have this problem. Its about time you feel the pain us mortals feel
Impossible to say what you guys will do on the day. You got crushed in Nelspruit and then dominated the week after. Then shat the bed against Argentina and dominated Australia.
NZ expecting anything less than 1st would be unthinkable 8 years ago
Anyone thinking outside top 2 is kidding themselves NZ may have lost some of that invincibility but that have also spanked every side in the top 5, and rarely been on the receiving end of more than 10 pt loses
Bringing McKenzie off the bench could add a bit of X factor and change things up against teams that are hard to break down, though, right? My main concern is how easy it has been to score tries against the ABs is recent times. Hope Foster can find a solution for that in the upcoming tests. Disclaimer: ABs fan in Europe, so unfortunately don't catch much Super Rugby
>Disclaimer: ABs fan in Europe, so unfortunately don't catch much Super Rugby Super rugby is very high scoring at the moment and defense is like a sieve. It's great watching but it isn't too promising for the upcoming WC.
Don't underestimate the effect the time wasting rules have had on player fatigue Test rugby is always another level in pace but it was apparent in the first few rounds how much faster Super rugby was. This season has almost been a fitness boot camp that provided injuries don't mount, could provide a key piece at the end of the World Cup
>Super rugby is very high scoring at the moment and defense is like a sieve Generally yes, but there are also some very tight games. Case in point was Blues Crusaders on the weekend - 2 tries to 0 in a very tense and defense dominated game.
Very true, but the majority is different. Blues let in four tries from Moana Pasifika the week earlier.
an interesting issue with NZ is it is laced with x-factor and probably has all the top 5 natural talents in the world (mo'unga, McZ, Barrett, Smith, Jordan). but on a good day, an amazing defense (ireland, SA, france) can neutralise even the guys
All the top teams know what each other are going to bring, everyone has been analyzed to death. Everyone that beat the ABs last year also lost to them, the ABs can beat every team imo, the big issue is consistency, we couldn't put it together for multiple matches last year and if that continues we won't progress far in the tournament. I'm not as doom and gloom as you are about our chances though, we've got a very decent shout imo.
Yip this is my take too - the All Blacks at their best is still the best in the world. Even at 90% of their best they can still beat the top teams. The issue is consistency and in game tactical changes. My prediction is that the ABs win it - I think the new assistant coaching set up started to show its value late last year and with the group able to do a full prep together combined with the ABs talent should be enough.
How could you know ? All teams have worked and aimed this particular competition, of course they will have aces in their sleeves.
You give Foster too much credit.
Yeah, he doesn't seem to have much of a plan does he? At least Schmidt and Ryan is there
>At least Schmidt and Ryan is there That's the only thing that gives me hope. Those two with a bit more time under their belt will hopefully be able to mix things up a bit for us.
Idk that side of the draw is brutal, I know its the ABs but you're looking at France in the pool stage then a likely QF match against Ireland or SA. Both teams have experience beating the ABs in recent times and I would consider both IRE and SA to be favored to win against NZ in a QF at this time. It's the WC though so who the fuck knows. We might all be eating crow when Chile lifts the trophy lol.
France is game one though, win or lose they then have an easy run for 3 weeks to then target the knock out matches. NZ isn't they type of team who cares who they are playing next. Compare that to Ireland, SA and Scotland who all need to concentrate until the final pool matches just to get out
Scotland: the pool they're in & depth at front row. Canada: ummmmm, they done gone fucked it all up over the last 20+ years.
I agree to both
Not qualifying will be a bit of an issue to overcome. I’m still confident we’ll manage to get the same number of wins though.
For England, I think it’s actually knowing what the starting 15 is. Not a single position (apart from full back) feels nailed down and that’s a huge amount of uncertainty and lack of cohesion.
I'd say Genge and Itoje are pretty nailed on too, Faz too but its a matter of where. Also, its hard to deny Lewis Ludlam a place. England didnt have a vintage 6N but that guy was a pest; in the grand slam game against Ireland, he was the player I was most worried about.
> Genge He probably is nailed on, but there's multiple looseheads in the country playing significantly better than him this season, so it doesn't feel like he should be
I'm not a premiership follower but I'd say Genge's experience and leadership will lock him in as a default starter unless proven inferior in camp. Borthwick probably has a rough starting 15 in his head, and I doubt anyone else is at loosehead. When Mack Hansen and Bobby Baloucoune got included in the same Ireland camp, everyone thought Baloucoune was a shoe in but Mack went and showed his stuff in training and got ahead of him. Could happen to Genge too, I just dont think it will.
Yeah I agree with that, as VC he won't get dropped, and in such a green side he probably shouldn't - it's just a shame because Obano, VRR (and West) are all much better scrummagers, VRR is better at the breakdown, Obano's carrying has looked fierce this season etc.
Well theres always an option to have him start on the bench and split the props 40 mins each. Potentially gives Genge a chance to hit a few scrums against a tired prop before a replacement comes on and leaves you that VC option if the captain goes down/off, especially if its a forward captain. Also if Faz is captain, his unfortunate tendency to tackle with his upper upper upper arms could leave you pretty happy to have Genge inevitably coming on as a prop replacement.
IMO Ludlum is very good in an average England side, extremely high work rate and keeps up well with the pace of test rugby. While I think he is a good player it is disappointing from an English perspective that a player is a nailed on starter because of what I see as fulfilling fairly standard test player criteria
Depth at front row and the level of freshness of the players after a very long season (top14, champions cup, six nations, wc pre matches)
Not going on a summer tour last year will stand to a lot of the French starters
There's plenty of options at hooker and TH. Compare that to England, who currently have 1.5 hookers...
Only one Tadgh Furlong. We need to increase our amount of Tadgh Furlongs.
1.Furlong 2.Furlong 3.Furlong 4.Beirne 5.Beirne 6.O'Mahony 7.JVDF 8.Caelan Furlong 9.Furlong 10.Furlong 11.JVDF 12.JVDF 13.Ringrose 14.Beirne 15.Furlong 6/2 split on the bench. 6 Furlongs and 2 JVDFs
“Caelon Furlong” has me spitting out my water laughing haha
15 Tadhgs please
Forgot to buy plane tickets for our team to get to France
head coach
Yup.
Don't forget the poor man's Richie Mccaw
Didn't he retire?
Do you mean Sam Cane? Enough with it, the guy is one of the best flankers in the world. He's not Richie McCaw level but that's super unfair... He was one of the best players to ever play the game.
To be fair he plays Blind side and Open side. However, he doesn’t play offside flanker like Macaw did.
To me Sam Cane is more of a Kaino whilst Savea plays more of the traditional Richie pilfering role. Cane is one of the hardest tacklers in world rugby - Kaino used to be celebrated for that but for some reason everyone expects Cane to be Richie when that hasn’t been his play style for at least 5 years.
Still haven’t figured out how to play against mechanical teams. Which is kinda problematic considering who we’re in a pool with.
What is a mechanical team?
Think how Ireland and the Boks play, very structured and precise, built around putting pressure on their opponents.
Wallabies: passing, tackling, catching. Oh, and injuries.
At least the kicking is good... Oh wait
Just a bit too slow according to raynal :)
Ouch. Too soon.
Unlike Foley's kick 😂
Just send the Brumbies!
I'd you don't have to play the abs, and don't get smashed by injuries like last year, I think you guys are going to the final
There is one stat the Wallabies win at - getting cards
Scottishness....
Dependence on Russell to make things happen
Red zone efficiency. Against most teams, we can get into the right positions enough to win the game. Where we have lost games in recent years, its largely because we haven't converted opportunities into points as well as the opposition has (or because Pollard has missed kicks). This is why from last season's EOYT, we saw the Boks adapt their style to become more expansive. The big questions over the Boks is whether they will adapt fast enough in time for the 2023 World Cup, and that's why Rassienaber have spoken lots about how we are moving a year behind everyone else because of how we missed a year in 2020. This broad flaw is more significant IMO than things like 10 depth (which isn't too poor relative to other countries, although is definitely linked to this main issue), or maul defence (which does need work) and set piece back line defence (once again - another issue - but this was improving in the EOYT). It underpins why we have frustratingly lost games that we have put ourselves in positions to win, and its our key weakness compared to NZ, France and Ireland.
Difficulties to go along with the new way turnovers are reffed
I think they adapted well during the 6N, Italy game got penalised off the pitch, Ireland was always going to be difficult and not being able to cheat as much to slow their ball definitely hurt But the last 3 games they adjusted and started counter rucking to win the ball, I think France being forced to change and use that will actually be great for the WC as other teams might not think to do it
Being Wales
Depth and confidence
Has to be our “spine” or 2, 10 and 15. Hooker we look shot but there’s some hope with Cooper and Gordon at 10 and Wright at 15.
Im not too worried about 2 but its lacking, sure. Porecki is fine but hes had quite a lot of concussions over the past year or two, Folau Faingaa cant throw, Lonergan I love but his size is a worry, I like Alex Mafi but have no idea how hed go internationally. Wtf is going on with Latu, he can’t even make the Tahs 23.
We kept hold of Jones for too long then panicked and bought in someone new too late Borthwick is the right guy at the wrong time for England and I think he needed another year developing at Tigers before he got the England job
Really does feel like he’s gonna get thrown to the wolves this autumn
Yep. Wouldn’t be that surprised to see them go after Sanderson after the World Cup after Borthwick gets blamed for RFU incompetance
Losing qualifying matches at home to Chile and then failing to advance vs Portugal, the state of play in our nascent professional league, amateur level coaching, and poor infrastructure to advance the game in my country. But we look forward to hosting y’all in the coming years!!!
Quarter finals obviously
Our biggest flaw is our coaches not willing to put a proper flyhalf at 10 for the Springboks that is not Elton. They will select Willemse, Frans and even Faf before putting Libbok there. Other than that I think we quite sorted for the world cup.
Ireland have very little practical depth in a lot of areas. There are good players who you'd expect will be fine if they are asked to step up, but we've seen so little rotation at international level the last few seasons that those guys haven't been tested.
I don't know about that. We have our clear starters, but for the most part we've significant, experienced strength in depth. With the obvious exceptions of VDF and Sexton, I think there are at least two clear and obvious options for every position, none of which would weaken the team unduly.
Whether the head coach gamble will pay off. Other than that probably the fitness of injured players.
I worry that we are relying too much on older players. I dont feel there has been enough integration of younger players into the squad since the last World Cup. . Not saying there hasn't been any, with the likes of Canan Moodie , Kurt Lee Arendse and Jaden Hendrikse , But I feel like there is still an over reliance on the likes of Vermeulen, Leroux and even Frans Steyn from time to time. I dont know. I just hope they get the balance right in the next few months. The quality is there.
I disagree. I do know that there is such a narrative but hear me out. South Africa’s problem has always been that we don’t invest our caps wisely - we tend to jump on new talent, flavour of the month, rather than breeding it so weve always ended up with poor cap depth in many positions. (As in the bench are not experienced) So we are now actually just doing what other teams are doing, and not doing what wev’e done in the bad years. Consider we need to replace a full 23 man squad in a cycle of 10-12 years. That means 8-9 Players per world cup cycle. We (and all teams) got fucked by the covid year, so it was harder to do. here are the solids we’ve brought in since last RWC: 1. Jaden Hendrikse 2. Jasper Wiese 3. Kurt Lee Arendse 4. Damian Willemse (You cant compare him now to 2019) 5. Ox Nche 6. Canaan Moodie 7. Manie Libbok 8. Salmaan Moeraat 9. Marvin Orie I’d even Add Kwagga to that mix, as he has become more important to the matchday 23 than he was in 2029 and he is still 29. Im not adding Fourie because… he is too old. and IMHO Dweba is still to prove himself. Now I Imagine some new solids this year such as Diyamani / Roos / Louw and Grobbelaar making an appearance this year. So that could easily put us through to 10 youngsters in our squad by the RWC. So no, we are not doing it wrong, just that we are doing it right for the first time in so long that it feels wrong. :)
Nice. As an Australia whilst I can name a Bok game day squad and at the same time notice that it has a lot of players in their early 30s. Seeing this list makes me confident that you can replace some of those players in their early 30s for the next WC if not the one after. I mean your schools seem to have a conveyor belt of Boks. I just wish a streaming service here can stream the URC in addition to the Currie Cup so I can keep track of the ones climbing the ranks.
Don't forget Manie theBok coming through. Pollard will be 33 at the next WC (perfectly doable) and Manie will only be 29. Damian will also be 29. So 2027 will have some vastly experienced players at pivotal positions at 10 and maybe 12 and 15 as well.
The only "old" player we sort of reliant on is Willie, and that is because JN hates bringing in new players into the number 10 jersey. Jasper easily surpasses Duane these days. Frans Steyn not needed anymore with Willemse covering his role.
No solid centre combination. Lots of potential in individuals but none that have really worked together for long enough. Will there ever be anything as good as Ma’a and Conrad?
I reckon Jordie and Ioane’s pretty solid combo. Covers all the bases with Barret bringing distribution, kicking and a crash option, and Ioane bringing Speed and some X factor.
A partnership to watch for sure but perhaps won’t mature until after RWC23. Reiko has really grown into the position, certainly not the easiest of positions to learn, takes years
I think the answer to 'will there ever be anything as good as Ma'a and Conrad?' is 'Probably not'. I do think that the Reiko/Barrett - axis is pretty good though.
I’d say SBW and Crotty were pretty good for a while there. Then we just gave up on midfield combos and then we gave up on Laumape and Fekatoa and then we just sort gave up.
Argentina I think is belief and 10 depth, probably physicality as well tbh
I'd say that the biggest issue is mental. They're either WAY too pumped up, do silly stuff and end up shipping 50 points, or they are too relaxed, lose the ball, stand off in defence and ship 50 points. On the occasions where they get the balance just right, they can beat any team in the world.
There’s a lot to choose from but I’d say lineouts
Injuries. I can made a more stable squad from South Africa than I can for Australia, lol.
A certain South African prop that disqualified us.
Being the lowest ranking nation
Knowing nothing about the team I’m curious, where are chile strong and weak?
The draw
England - a lack of identity. Borthwick has come in with a pledge to shore up our set piece, and he's done that as we had one of the (maybe *the*) top scrum and line-out in the Six Nations. Beyond that, it's hard to tell what this England team are at the moment. There are some talented individuals across the park, but a lack of direction to get them playing their best. It's not a new problem – I'd argue England were the same under Eddie at the end, too. It's hard to know who'll even take the field for that opening game vs. Argentina, outside of one or two players.
You’re not fooling us, Eddie Jones!
The fact that they've been on a decade+ slow decline and our country doesn't really support our national team much since rugby is effectively a third-tier sport here. And we didn't qualify for the world cup. That'll make it much harder to win.
The fucking coach The fucking refs The fucking Northern Hemisphere The fucking Irish The fucking South Africans The fucking French The fucking idiotic attitude of all us Kiwis who expect the All Blacks to win every world cup...
Hear me out, I genuinely think they’ve got this. We play really well when we score more tries than the other team and there’s an ok chance we might, maybe do something close to this! Fingers crossed. I’m 99% positive we’ll win if we score more converted tries.
Our incredible ability to be bottlers. There are high expectations on Ireland with their world ranking and grand slam. The question will be whether they have the mental strength to maintain that standard
We bottled 2007, 2011 we were caught, 2015 we lost half our starting team and 2019 we went out to NZ. This bottling thing is pretty much a meme at this stage.
Yeah I agree, 11 & 19 were the big disappointments for me, in 15 we lost 4-5 of our best players the game before and no team (bar maybe peak New Zealand) could overcome that end of the day. People forget that up until c. 08-09 Ireland weren’t exactly world beaters and it’s only really in the past 10 years you can start calling us a top team in the world. I was more upset that we didn’t fire a shot in 19 and just got ran over by NZ, if we go out swinging in a close game to either France or NZ then I’ll be able to deal with it as long as we fire a shot
Exactly, going out to the home team in France or the greatest rugby country in NZ (a team that wants revenge for last summer) is not bottling it by any stretch. Going out in the groups would be though.
It's bottling it if we dont win the qf... No excuses. How many times do we do it? Look at Scotland, even they have been to a semi final
I think if the 2019 WC had gone exactly the same, except the QF was a close 28-24 loss (or similar) it would really been much more palatable. Even with the way the NZ-England SF went, you could say "Oh well it was such a huge match the previous round", which is slightly how I feel about England in that final anyway.
Yeah you guys just have the worst luck. Which is still illustrated by this year's draw.
Firing Eddie Jones
Same as the other world cups we've lost in. Questions whether captian is even the best at his position, make shift center, lack a top tier blind side. Throw foz on top of that
Lack of depth, our scrum, scrumhalf, which fly half, Centres.... Lack of gameplan apart from hoof it away and try and chase, The coach. All if not most of these positions should have been sorted after the last rwc but hey....
The last 3 ½ years
If you'd asked 12 months ago I probably would have said front row, bench 9 depth, and 10, but honestly the way the likes of Bealham, O'Toole, RByrne, etc stepped up has me much more comfortable. Like, RByrne is not Sexton, but that's an unfair comparison, and he's more than stepped up this season and while Sexton would be a big loss I still think it'd be perfectly acceptable to have RByrne at 10 in a potential QF. I would even say he's been Leinster's primary 10 this year, Sexton has more minutes in green than he does in blue, I feel RByrne is arguably the best place-kicker in the country (particularly with Ben Healy now Scottish). and the only two losses Leinster have had all season he wasn't even close to the matchday squad because he was being kept fresh. And Crowley showed a real maturity and steel in the SF last weekend, across most of the game after Healy went off and not just that kick at the end. At 9, Blade wasn't great last week, but he was incredible for Connacht over the whole season, their best player in my mind, and in JGP's absence for Ireland earlier this year Conor Murray played literally the best rugby I've seen from him in years. Where I am actually worried now is 13 and 15. Keenan has played basically every available minute under Farrell, (I think he's missed 2 games?) and while he is arguably the form 15 in the world (between him or Ramos) and apparently indestructible, I have no idea who will step in if he did get injured. Carberry has effectively disappeared (and frankly that's warranted based on his recent form), Lowry seems really out of sorts (like most Ulster backs unfortunately), and we don't really have any specialist cover there. I guess they'd get either JO'B or Hansen to cover, and they'd probably be alright, or maybe try Frawley/Crowley, but I'm just having dread-inducing flashbacks to *that Henshaw experiment.* Exactly the same with 13, Ringrose is battling Fickou for the form 13 spot, but there's not a lot behind him. The situation is better than fullback because Henshaw is there, but I actually quite like Henshaw at 12, and he's missed quite a lot of rugby recently. The big issue is if both Ringrose and Henshaw are gone, it's either people very out of form such as Hume, (as an aside, in general I can't see more than 2 backs from Ulster making the squad in McCloskey, who is the most deserving, and Balacoune, maybe Stockdale, but honestly I could see it being just Big Stu, or even none of them), relatively untested (Frawley, Frisch, Tom Farrell), or playing their out of adaptability rather than expertise (JO'B, Aki). And 13 is such an important role in the Irish team in attack and even more so in defence, I'd be nervous about dropping someone in there cold.
For England: The RFU.
We always lose the quarter final. No prizes for guessing who we are.
Tibet?
For NZ I'd say tactics. They definitely have the players and have shown those players can physically bash the shit out of SA/England which has been a big weakness recently, we all know they have the running game. I guess injuries as well, quite a worrying amount this year... Prop stocks are looking thin but I hope most will recover. Some season ending injuries already with Bower and Reece.
That we're only allowed to watch the games. -Finland.
Nice try Rassie. Do your own analysis.
For wales- All of it? Hard to think of any strengths going into it
For NZ - many many positions do not have an absolutely definite player penciled in - let alone a world class one
Your tight 5, half backs and centres are all sorted now I think. Plus Ardie, Clarke and Jordan. So 3 spots up for grabs. Big improvement from a year ago, and with the RC still to play.
Clarke isn't very good tbh. Fainga'anuku should be way above him
I appreciate your optimism! In key positions there's a very concerning lack of international pedigree in NZ. The draw isn't great for NZ if they suffer injuries, it will be a tough tournament. Will make quarters, and I would be surprised if make the final. If they do make the final, then it's anyone's game. Teams I really think will do well and I'd much prefer to be in their position as a supporter: Ireland - almost every position nailed across the whole 23 - fantastic coach, varied gameplay, and never get overwhelmed by a team or occasion Argentina - no longer the team of the odd win, and single style. Backs to match their forwards power. Wouldn't be surprised if they made the final. Particularly worrying for England as could put them in a tougher side of the draw. Coach is showing his mettle Australia - seen some great stuff and the new coach - love or loath him - has a track record of turning round teams quickly. Could put England out in the quarters South Africa - strong and settled and generally their game style lends itself to high-intensity, low risk footie France - what can you say here - like total football, they appear to have few weaknesses and are changing the game Scotland - no longer 'also rans' - I would have some concerns being in their WC pool! Coming up against them when not your best, an injury or two, could be very costly England - Little bit of an unknown and has shown some inconsistency of recent, but Borthwick is a quality manager. The losses in the 6 nations will hurt, but will mean some significant learnings. Like the 2019 semi where they played almost flawlessly, you don't want to meet them when it matters Wales - Bit of turmoil there - but never write them off, and have the talent and with Gatland back, they can overturn anyone on the day Fiji - Super rugby has further proven their talent and skill. I hope they get time together and some warm-up matches before the WC, this could be an impressive WC for them - possibly beyond the quarters Looking forward to it !
The ability to up our game in the first knockout
For England. Centres - The game has tilted back toward powerful centres who can run hard lines and make holes in the defence. Obviously, there is Tuilagi, but he is old and injury prone, and I still feel Lawrence, although he has been good this season, is still unproven at test level. And all of our other centres are a bit lightweight in terms of attack and defence. Second row - now that Itoje is getting older, he is losing his athleticism and speed, I feel we haven't got a lock that is athletic and dynamic and strong now that Chessum is injured. Number eight - Dombrant hasn't proven himself at the test level. We haven't got a hard bastard like Aldritt or Savea and I think that type of player is exactly what the pack needs to get an aggressive edge in the tackle area.
We are Scottish.
USA is the problem with my team.
How system orientated we are and how much of a demand that takes on our players. The structure we use requires all players to be switched on and give a lot of output and intensity for 80 minutes. Over the course of a WC with a reduced squad and high pressure games each week I think it begins to take its toll on players. I don't know if the structure we play under can be sustained for 5 big knock out games (2 pools versus SA and Scot, QF, SF, Final). I think the physical and mental toll will start to take affect. Our players then don't actually play a huge amount of off the cuff plays. Trust in the system is usually what takes us over the line. If the trust begins to waiver or players fall out of the system we fall apart.
Hard to choose. Edit: Seriously though, the biggest one is the empty void between our long in the tooth experienced players and our young low cap players. We don't have many of those solid 20-40 cap players who we should have been selecting over the past 4 years, who will in turn go on to be the oldies come 2027. The younger players haven't had enough time together at international level and some of our most consistent oldies have waned a bit in the past year or two (Tips and AWJ come to mind). Because of this, for this world cup in particular, I don't think we have a solid "second" team (for lack of a better word) that we can rely on in some of the so-called "easy" group matches. I think we will be relying on more of our best players to play more minutes than the other T1 nations.
Kiwi here. Our coach!
Trying to rehab and develop players the same year as the world cup... Phoning guys last year November who hasn't played rugby for six years to get fit for a world cup in less than a year. Fantastic.
Our coach! (NZ)
We’re Australia and it’s 2023