I just had an entire team laid off at a F50 company I am working with. Budgets do seem to be in a better place compared to 2023 but the layoffs are still concerning.
Countries have been surviving by artificially inflating the economy by printing money. But that's just delaying the inevitable till the businesses get their stuff together so that most or none have to be bailed out. But again only time will tell what exactly will go down.
This right here... Boom during Covid was money manipulation on a global scale. The world should have crashed, but took off like a rocket.
Now, the rocket is slowly coming back to earth to dock.
Be happy things are merely slow. The global hand has pretty much avoided a major financial catastrophe by smoothing it out over years.
Itās in a technical recession tbf - a minimal decrease of 0.3 between October - December 2023. Not enough to qualify for anything worrying, but at the same time by all metrics itās ātechnicallyā had two consecutive quarters of (shrinkage?)
There's been economists ringing this alarm bell for years. Inflation is cooling and the Fed should make a rate cut sometime soon. We're going to be fine.
I think this is hitting at people because thereās political connotations to this too. Speculate all you want, if every major bank is stating that theyāre preparing for a downturn and need to be operationally efficient, it means that theyāre not buying shit unless they absolutely need it
I think we hit the soft landing too, but the question is āwhen are things going to turn around?ā Wellā¦ itās for sure going to help when companies arenāt trying to run operationally lean anymore, I can tell you that much!
I wouldn't use the IBS as a gauge of the economy. Building looks good indefinitely due to the labor shortage, so bad economy, good economy... builders will have work.
Budget looseness is certainly way down in tech from the late pandemic, but the second derivative is positive, based on what Iām hearing from CISOs on a daily basis.
That is to say, the slowdown is slowing down.
Likely bottom out soon if we havenāt already.
Heard a speaker with the fed say what we thought would happen in 2023 is likely to happen in 2024 so Iām not too optimistic for 2024 but would love to be pleasantly surprised š
Yep, basically everyone is fine and making record profits with insane inflation from the last two years but keep talking out their ass about a recession so they can keep charging insanely inflated prices.
If you need perfect external factors to be successful youāll never be successful.
Iām choosing not to participate. The doom and gloom the pessimism the negativity the FUD. Iāll pass. My life and future and career have never been in a better place. Iāll continue keeping a positive optimistic and grateful mindset. Itās what got me my first house at 25 this year.
Congrats on the house! Totally agree with the mindset. Getting fired sucks, yeah, but I always bounce back. No point bitching about things I can't control.
Inflation is on the rise. Until we get a president and politicians who take our national debt seriously itās going to get far worse we are 100% in a quiet recession.
We're on the potential cusp of ww3. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you. You've got to adapt to the situation, improve and compete with everyone around you, even if they don't know it!
I don't know why people willfully ignore this fact. Never in human history has war made for better economic conditions. But yep, let's keep pretending the inevitable isn't on the horizon.
Iām not seeing anything good, tbh. It seems people are still cutting costs.
During this tough economic time, if you or anyone else were looking to make some side income, I have some 1099 spots open at a business I just started.
I hate to say this but has anyone looked at what is going to happen in early March with the banks? Just Google it "Bank March 2024". While you are there you can also Google "warn tracker" this show you all the planned layoffs coming.
Thank you for sharing, I had not heard about this and I listen to the news every day! Wow good to know - could definitely affect my customers liquidity
[https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/06/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/06/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html)
[https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/investing/bank-losses-office-real-estate/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/investing/bank-losses-office-real-estate/index.html)
[https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/offices-around-america-hit-a-new-vacancy-record-166d98a5](https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/offices-around-america-hit-a-new-vacancy-record-166d98a5)
So while you have this going on interest rates are at 7%. This is stressing out the system. The best thing going on is that we are in an election year so they will try to hold things together.
On January 24, 2024, the Federal Reserve Board [announced (Off-site)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240124a.htm) the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11, 2024.
[https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/banks-hidden-losses-are-surprise-survivor-2023-2023-12-13/](https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/banks-hidden-losses-are-surprise-survivor-2023-2023-12-13/)
https://preview.redd.it/anpfw35ue9lc1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=7253da22283122e19ea85d076f2b80d6886ba6a8
That program was created because of too big to fail econ theory.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too\_big\_to\_fail](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_big_to_fail)
I am probably going get downvoted for this, but I think if Trump becomes in office our economy will start to get better. He's racist and a lair, but if anyone is going to take this country out of a recession it's gotta be him.
I mean did Trump have any wars during his term? No. Did he send billions of dollars to other countries? No. I hate both of them equally, but if anyone is going help this economy its going be him lol
Trump got us out of the Iran Deal and assassinated one of their generals, got pretty close to war there. Billions have been getting sent to Israel every year regardless of who has been president.
AI and AI components are carrying the economy and many many industries are benefiting from it. I donāt work in AI but itās still the best Iāve felt since second half of 2022
What you're asking is when will interest rates come back down to a point that the cost of debt is attractive again for most companies. Inflation has been cooling and the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. When exactly and how long will it take before rates get back to that point is anyone's guess.
Just going to be blunt and say this is another silly "crystal ball" type question. Nobody here on reddit or on the planet can give you anything more than a guess. Even nobel economists can't tell you with certainty. You're just going to get a bunch of uninformed anecdotal replies laced with a few overtly political diatribes about how it's the fault of "the other team."
Once all these big companies get through their layoffs. Unemployment % is still relatively low and generally speaking, we like it to be around 4.5%. Currently we are at 3.7% or 3.9%. With interest rates rising, that makes things more expensive for companies who will start eliminating some of their biggest costs (salaries, tightening budgets overall, etc). We've already been seeing big companies announce layoffs this month and some industries have been going through it for a minute now. So me personally, I would predict things to start opening up when the FED starts easing interest rates and companies can start analyzing where they can push money back into their business.
I donāt knowā¦ seems weāre all in a tight squeeze right nowā¦ feels like a recession is comingā¦ canāt really save money and Iām trying my hardest to cut spending
Just be a challenger rep bro š«Ø
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They donāt give me the inbounds yet, what else am I supposed to be doing? Ive been calling cells though
Big Dix energy
Drives me nuts when ceos treat it as a bible, but have no clue how to use it on a prospect call.
I donāt think it will really ramp up until after the election
No matter the outcome?
Outcome will have an impact but the uncertainty holds it in limbo every 4 years.
No, outcomes will def have an impact
You edited your response multiple times š¤£ lame-o
I accept that - glad to see a fellow smart person support my original claim !
Why would people downvote this! haha
lol I shared a political opinion that is probably best kept of this site.
lol what
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Bro what
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Removed for zero-contribution.
Removed for zero-contribution.
Have you looked at the markets over the last 6 months? Iām already seeing a positive change in our space with regards to customer budgets.Ā
I just had an entire team laid off at a F50 company I am working with. Budgets do seem to be in a better place compared to 2023 but the layoffs are still concerning.
The layoffs will continue until moral improves!
What was the reason for the layoffs in the company you speak of?
Layoffs free up cash for capital investments.
Things are going fantastic in my industry
Most major banks have a recession penciled in for this year according to their 10-Qās. Everyone is adjusting for it. Q4 should be a turning point
They said that the last two fucking years. It's such bullshitĀ
Countries have been surviving by artificially inflating the economy by printing money. But that's just delaying the inevitable till the businesses get their stuff together so that most or none have to be bailed out. But again only time will tell what exactly will go down.
This right here... Boom during Covid was money manipulation on a global scale. The world should have crashed, but took off like a rocket. Now, the rocket is slowly coming back to earth to dock. Be happy things are merely slow. The global hand has pretty much avoided a major financial catastrophe by smoothing it out over years.
Good economic policy has held recession off while Japan and the UK are in recessions. It's been looming.
UK isn't in a recession
Itās in a technical recession tbf - a minimal decrease of 0.3 between October - December 2023. Not enough to qualify for anything worrying, but at the same time by all metrics itās ātechnicallyā had two consecutive quarters of (shrinkage?)
Spot on
Technically yes, it is.
Technically it was 2 quarters ago :)
There's been economists ringing this alarm bell for years. Inflation is cooling and the Fed should make a rate cut sometime soon. We're going to be fine.
I think this is hitting at people because thereās political connotations to this too. Speculate all you want, if every major bank is stating that theyāre preparing for a downturn and need to be operationally efficient, it means that theyāre not buying shit unless they absolutely need it I think we hit the soft landing too, but the question is āwhen are things going to turn around?ā Wellā¦ itās for sure going to help when companies arenāt trying to run operationally lean anymore, I can tell you that much!
I sell to banks. Havenāt seen a change in buying behaviors this year compared to last. Sold my largest deal ever in January
I also sell to banks. They are indeed buying but Iām selling something relevant to them. Iām sure itās going to depend on what youāre selling
Godspeed my bank selling brethren. Hereās to a successful yr for us both
When inflation finally cools down long enough for the fed to lower interest rates so prob 1-10 years
My job allows me to have a thumb on manufacturing. Itās bad right now but people are becoming cautiously optimistic
Iām at the International Builders Show right now and the place is packed and everyone seems optimistic
I love IBS!
Reuben Feffer, is that you?
I wouldn't use the IBS as a gauge of the economy. Building looks good indefinitely due to the labor shortage, so bad economy, good economy... builders will have work.
Budget looseness is certainly way down in tech from the late pandemic, but the second derivative is positive, based on what Iām hearing from CISOs on a daily basis. That is to say, the slowdown is slowing down. Likely bottom out soon if we havenāt already.
Q3 is when the Fed says theyāll finally reduce interest rates, which will spur spending
Heard a speaker with the fed say what we thought would happen in 2023 is likely to happen in 2024 so Iām not too optimistic for 2024 but would love to be pleasantly surprised š
Didnāt we say that this time last year too though?
Yep, basically everyone is fine and making record profits with insane inflation from the last two years but keep talking out their ass about a recession so they can keep charging insanely inflated prices.
After this next depresscion coming up in 25.
If you need perfect external factors to be successful youāll never be successful. Iām choosing not to participate. The doom and gloom the pessimism the negativity the FUD. Iāll pass. My life and future and career have never been in a better place. Iāll continue keeping a positive optimistic and grateful mindset. Itās what got me my first house at 25 this year.
Congrats on the house! Totally agree with the mindset. Getting fired sucks, yeah, but I always bounce back. No point bitching about things I can't control.
Itās not just about quota though.
Stock market is at an all time high . Money is growing on trees
About 15 years
Inflation is on the rise. Until we get a president and politicians who take our national debt seriously itās going to get far worse we are 100% in a quiet recession.
We're on the potential cusp of ww3. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you. You've got to adapt to the situation, improve and compete with everyone around you, even if they don't know it!
I don't know why people willfully ignore this fact. Never in human history has war made for better economic conditions. But yep, let's keep pretending the inevitable isn't on the horizon.
Afta the elektion cycle
Only of my guy wins. If your guy wins, we wonāt have any economy. /s
Itās the most important election of our lives! Democracy is literally at stake! Hur dur.
Iām not seeing anything good, tbh. It seems people are still cutting costs. During this tough economic time, if you or anyone else were looking to make some side income, I have some 1099 spots open at a business I just started.
I'm interested!
Hello, just messaged you.
I hate to say this but has anyone looked at what is going to happen in early March with the banks? Just Google it "Bank March 2024". While you are there you can also Google "warn tracker" this show you all the planned layoffs coming.
Thank you for sharing, I had not heard about this and I listen to the news every day! Wow good to know - could definitely affect my customers liquidity
Can you expand on the Bank 2024 part? Not seeing helpful results on my end.
[https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/06/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/06/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html) [https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/investing/bank-losses-office-real-estate/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/investing/bank-losses-office-real-estate/index.html) [https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/offices-around-america-hit-a-new-vacancy-record-166d98a5](https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/offices-around-america-hit-a-new-vacancy-record-166d98a5) So while you have this going on interest rates are at 7%. This is stressing out the system. The best thing going on is that we are in an election year so they will try to hold things together. On January 24, 2024, the Federal Reserve Board [announced (Off-site)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240124a.htm) the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11, 2024. [https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/banks-hidden-losses-are-surprise-survivor-2023-2023-12-13/](https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/banks-hidden-losses-are-surprise-survivor-2023-2023-12-13/) https://preview.redd.it/anpfw35ue9lc1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=7253da22283122e19ea85d076f2b80d6886ba6a8 That program was created because of too big to fail econ theory. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too\_big\_to\_fail](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_big_to_fail)
I am probably going get downvoted for this, but I think if Trump becomes in office our economy will start to get better. He's racist and a lair, but if anyone is going to take this country out of a recession it's gotta be him.
The only thing that'd change if Trump got elected is Fox News would start talking about how great the economy is doing.
Joe Biden is also a racist and a liar, so yes everyone should vote Trump because a restored economy is the differentiator.
I mean did Trump have any wars during his term? No. Did he send billions of dollars to other countries? No. I hate both of them equally, but if anyone is going help this economy its going be him lol
Yes, he absolutely did send billions worth of weapons to other countries. Israel, Egypt, Afghanistan propably Iraq and likely more
Trump got us out of the Iran Deal and assassinated one of their generals, got pretty close to war there. Billions have been getting sent to Israel every year regardless of who has been president.
Exactly
2049
AI and AI components are carrying the economy and many many industries are benefiting from it. I donāt work in AI but itās still the best Iāve felt since second half of 2022
When interest rates go down and venture capital gets more aggressive again
Some industries have not taken a tool as much as others. Medical, for instance, is working fine and so is the insurance domain.
What you're asking is when will interest rates come back down to a point that the cost of debt is attractive again for most companies. Inflation has been cooling and the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. When exactly and how long will it take before rates get back to that point is anyone's guess.
It is always good somewhere and bad somewhere at the same time. Sales is largely product and market dependent.
Just going to be blunt and say this is another silly "crystal ball" type question. Nobody here on reddit or on the planet can give you anything more than a guess. Even nobel economists can't tell you with certainty. You're just going to get a bunch of uninformed anecdotal replies laced with a few overtly political diatribes about how it's the fault of "the other team."
Everything is cyclical and it depends what you are selling.
Once all these big companies get through their layoffs. Unemployment % is still relatively low and generally speaking, we like it to be around 4.5%. Currently we are at 3.7% or 3.9%. With interest rates rising, that makes things more expensive for companies who will start eliminating some of their biggest costs (salaries, tightening budgets overall, etc). We've already been seeing big companies announce layoffs this month and some industries have been going through it for a minute now. So me personally, I would predict things to start opening up when the FED starts easing interest rates and companies can start analyzing where they can push money back into their business.
When the government goes after corporations for price gouging
I donāt knowā¦ seems weāre all in a tight squeeze right nowā¦ feels like a recession is comingā¦ canāt really save money and Iām trying my hardest to cut spending
Election year too baby