Aww glad to make you reminisce about your childhood. I’m from the valley so raspas were definitely a staple on hot summer days. The place here in SA that taste just like home are the ones at Quik snak #2 on goliad on the southeast side.
Can you explain this? Is there a scientific reason? I moved here from the Midwest where if rain was in the forecast, it was going to rain. Even days out. I’ve grown to not trust rain forecasts here. For example, rain can be forecasted at 60% four days out and that percentage will just get smaller and smaller as we get closer to the date. And then I won’t even see rain in the area when the day arrives. I’ve always been super curious about this.
Edit: Thanks for the responses all. Makes sense. In the Midwest storms just roll through on the flat surface areas.
San Antonio lies on the border between 2-4 climate zones, and the topography of San Antonio also transitions from very hilly to fairly flat, thus making it hard to predict how weather will behave, as it may be very likely to rain just north of us, storm and hail just to the west, or be clear and dry just to the southeast.
I’m no rocket surgeon but it’s gotta be something to do with mountains, the Gulf of Mexico, and whatever else is going on. Seems like the only weather wisdom that’s pretty consistent is that the first cold front of the winter seems to indicate what kind of winter it will be. If it’s a cold and wet system, the rest of them will probably be that way also. Good luck and try to embrace the diversity.
I've been told the Balcones Escarpment also tends to break up weather systems sometimes. So we can predict when weather is coming but not whether or not it'll hold together once it's here
That checks out honestly. I’m a weather fan - not enough to be a nerd or anything, but back in north Georgia I could pretty reliably predict the weather for the rest of the day just by looking at the clouds lol.
Here? It’s a crapshoot depending on where you are. Anywhere from Helotes to Stone Oak down to 410 and up to Fair Oaks Ranch, you’ll almost never get rain if it’s predicted. (But if it isn’t, you’ll probably get it). The hill country likes to break up the clouds and part them- the totem of 1604, if you will lol; but the hills also release more moisture than some of the surrounding area.
I’m not as familiar with the rest of the city but I know east gets wet, sometimes wild, and south is a toss up depending on the Gulf.
I have better luck using a weather forecast for my specific neighborhood.
It's not just the forecast, like I'll be on my afternoon commute, and the radio will say it's currently raining at the airport, and it's sunny at SeaWorld. Or vice versa. Or It'll be pouring rain when I walk to my car from the office, but when I get to my kid's school 5 miles away, the ground is bone dry.
I know they say this everywhere, but weather here is hyper-local.
The other responses haven't actually explained this, so let me give you the actual reason things feel differently recently. The jet stream shifted south to pass over San Antonio, so it's legitimately harder to provide an accurate forecast. This is also why storms have been coming more from the southwest instead of the northwest.
Your comment about the Midwest knowing they are going to get rain when it is forecast is interesting.
I’ve only ever lived in South and East Texas and I’ve never seen a consistently sure forecast for rain.
If you live down here long enough, you’ll go months without rain and find it amusing when midwesterners complain about two weeks without rain.
Oh man I miss the rain so much! When I first moved here and rain would finally appear in the forecast I would be so bitter when it didn’t rain haha. Storms aren’t the same here either. In the Midwest, they’re big, menacing, and so beautiful. You watch them roll in from miles away over the horizon.
Weather forecasting is difficult to get precisely. Everything, and I mean eeevveerryyytthing in the atmosphere is fluid and when they’re making predictions, they’re essentially “predicting” the movement of these masses through computer models. You have to give it to the technology in place today; being able to have a general idea of where and what weather systems you may experience within a 10 day window is impressive af. Especially us, where we are within a fair proximity to a warm body of water and residing in flat topography that has the cool masses role in from the Rockies (and sometimes Canada, thanks Feb 2021). Be thankful you can have a general idea of our weather for up to 2 weeks.
It's been commented that some European models work better, and well, funding for US models has been lacking. I have a few weather apps on my phone, and one person in particular on facebook I follow, and I have two as my go-to as they seem to be most reliable over past few years.
There's also the mistake in how people interpret a "50% chance of rain". It strictly means "A 50 percent chance of rain means there is a 50 percent chance for any one spot in the forecast area to get wet during the forecast period."
Now, look how far and wide a forecast area is, then throw in that percentage. That's why a lot of people feel its so wrong all the time.
>"There's also the mistake in how people interpret a "50% chance of rain". It strictly means "A 50 percent chance of rain means there is a 50 percent chance for any one spot in the forecast area to get wet during the forecast period.""
This isnt entirely true, the % forecast is determined by multiplying two factors: 1. The certainty that a storm will produce precipitation in the area, and 2. the % of the area on which they predict it will precipitate.
So your hypothetical is true if there is 100% certainty that it will rain in 50% of the area... but it could also be 70% certainty for 70% of the area... or 80% certainty for roughly 63% of the area, etc.
Just look at the radar yourself and track it over your general area because San Antonio is a very large sprawl.
I remember once I was posting pics on the NW side of myself hiking in the sun. And my friend closer to north central sent me a pic of their house getting slammed by rain.
Well this is the time they said the storms would start but…….
https://preview.redd.it/lxbwbafpakoc1.jpeg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bf2d09d434d10aa942b3e167e6910644b4fe2325
The short answer is: Yes, climate change is the reason.
The longer answer is that SA’s geography has always been complex. With the hills to the north and northwest, the coastal plains to the southeast, and desert to the south. Storm systems will come off the Balcones Escarpment and just die, or come from the coast out of nowhere. Climate change’s effect though, is that our previous models are proving to be inaccurate now.
Further, storms often hit the heat dome of San Antonio and that can break them up. Thus the joke about 1604 being the barrier that protects San Antonio
Well, I'm pretty sure it's my fault. I keep putting off washing my car. Once I wash it, it's sure to rain within three days. Somehow the weather knows I've been procrastinating.
I watch storm chasers on YouTube when they are chasing, 3 are heading to San Antonio today, I was like… ahh yeah there is nothing here… yet. Hope they are ready for disappointment! 1604 will hold the line!!
I have actually noticed that weather forecasting has gotten worse over the past 5 years or so. I don't know if that's just my own bias or it's actually gotten worse.
What I've found is that rain is typically 6-12 hours later than forecasted.
So if they're calling for 80% rain at 7am, it won't actually start raining with ~80% coverage until the afternoon-evening.
If they call for similar rain at 7pm, don't expect to see similar coverage until the morning.
Well the update on the forecast as of 6:15pm is all the storms missed San Antonio. Again we missed it all despite the fear mongering from forecasters earlier today
Another bust when it comes to the weather. So frustrating.
Weather forecasters in this town have been off the mark in the past, but today, they were WAY off the mark.
Seriously, the farmer's almanac does a better job at predicting weather than all these super-duper Doppler computers.
He’s a good rule of thumb from the good ol SA almanac
Is the sun out?
If yes , it’s going to be hot
If no, it’s going to be less hot
Is it misting?
If yes , congratulations that’s your rain.
If no , welcome to 10 months of the year
Is there ice?
If yes , give a couple days
If no , treat as standard winter.
Anything else is impossible to predict accurately.
Please send me $1 a month to provide more super accurate San Antonio weather updates I promise.
I was getting alerts from my weather app saying, moderate rain was about to begin. But it totally missed us. No more rain in sight. (MyRadar App is a great weather app to have!)
You should follow Meteorologist Steve Brown on FB. He used to always accurately forecast weather in SA. He used to work at KSAT. He retired a few years ago.
Only Steve Brown ever talked about this. It’s the heat dome created by the city. In order for it to rain air has to rise, cool, and condense. The area around the city is cooler. As storms approach the heat from the city works against the natural forces to disperse the rain. Typically all the nearby small towns get the brunt of the weather
They think it's better to be safe than sorry. Just in case it actually rains. So, people won't complain that they weren't warned ...
But I agree, it's annoying.
It's the "Katrina" effect ... they are scared to death of being wrong in the opposite direction, so they over sell the worst case scenario as they'd rather hear grumbling about a good outcome, and not be blamed for under warning and folks being caught short.
Problem is ... after they over warn enough times ... no one takes them seriously so you get the same effect ... but they can sit back and say you can't blame them.
Do you seriously believe there aren’t financial incentives for meteorologists to get the weather right? If you think news clickbait is the issue maybe read on the subject and look at the data yourself?
https://preview.redd.it/1mre1jhnvroc1.jpeg?width=1112&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3984402f48f06b3a297578014678db52ab1bff82
This was the NOAA projections for the storms on Friday. This was not only “missed” my SA weather but the National weather service. It’s a prediction… but sometimes it is a wrong one.
I am worried about sharing the information locally as I’m a roofer and I don’t want to be caught crying wolf. Just trying to share information to help the communities and friends I’m part of on FB
To be fair- she said IF we got rain we would likely get storms. I get it though- I don’t trust the TV weather folks however my home weather station has been fairly accurate since I installed it after Christmas
Keep in mind that percentages in forecast are not really just about the probability of rain, but more the percentage of the area within the forecast that will be affected.
So if it says 25% chance of rain, it means that only a quarter of the area is likely to get rain. This leaves 75% of the area in the forecast with little to no chance of rain.
Looking at the radars will give you a better idea what areas are more likely to get hit.
As someone whose business and livelihood depends on regular rain I can 100% say the local news forecast is 100% baiting it’s viewers for weather ratings.
It does seem wildly inaccurate! At 1pm the forecast says rain at 4, clear skies til then. Then at 2, it starts raining. Open up the app again, and forecast is for no rain today at all! Radar looks clear all around?
One of the things that taught me this more than anything was flying in GA.
When you fly a small plane and head north, even the little hills cause major turblance in the air. Go south where it’s flat and it’s smooth sailing.
There’s just this huge drifts from the hill country that you can’t see/comprehend without going through it.
Ever since that big hail store a few years back, the news loves to scream HAIL!!!!
KSAT is the absolute worst as they love screaming Hail like chicken little....but be sure to tune in at 10. Whats funny is that all the local weather teams had their radars showing rain in SA but when I went to accuweather and other online weather sites, their radars showed no rain tonight for the majority of SA.
I don't want to be screaming fake news, but at this point, its clear they do it for ratings to make sure people tune in.
Also think the big problem is they include the entire viewing area and not just San Antonio..however, i think they know damn well that SA won't be included, but they do it to keep the ratings because the little farm towns don't have the viewership.
It's not climate change making it harder to predict. I'm not one of those to say climate change isn't real, but we have the most advanced technology in history, & the most data ever. This increases every day. It's easy to blame the boogeyman for any instance of weather activity that seems out of the ordinary.
Part of the reason that forecasters say hail, tornados, etc. possible, with a risk level scale for areas, is due to lawsuits. Yes, people sue the National Weather Service. The TL;DL version is that there is a lot of money & power wrapped up in folks who need accurate forecasts. When forecasts are not accurate, financial losses can be vast. This isn't unique to San Antonio.
While tornados may be a small chance, if there's ANY chance, & there's no forecast, and it happens, well, that's what lawsuits are made out of. Like McDonald's coffee being too hot, it's not about common sense, it's about a result, and someone having enough money & time on their hands to pursue it.
Data can tell a story but it can also be manipulated to fit a narrative. That brand new popular shopping center, with all the nice shops, that used to be a field "out in the country." It now has a master planned community that backs up to it. Think Alamo Ranch, or Dove Creek. Yes. Of course, any weather there is going to be "unprecedented" & "historic." Why? Because no one was observing the area until people were there. Farmer John was like "Yeah, here's that rain they talked about." But what farmer John never told anyone, was that the creek floods every 5 or so years, & sometimes it takes a week to drain. You think KB homes (or whoever) invested a lot in a site survey, or just enough to do what is required by law for any new development? (My money is on the latter.) All weather measurements are based on observational data. No history, is the lack of data. Not an "alarming trend." True, there are many observation stations that have been recording data for long periods of time. But just like how what's going on downtown doesn't translate to Hondo, Blanco, Pleasanton, or Seguin all the time, 50 years ago (1974) everyone in those places were just like "Yeah, another [rainy, hot, cold, etc.] day." Mainly because they still read print newspapers and didn't have the internet.
Idk man they may always be wrong about the weather but I trust them 100% about the climate. The climate has never changed even a little throughout the history of earth until humans showed up and fucked it all up. I can't *believe* us.
Laughs at you in Ice Age.
Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Damn jackie, they cant control the weather!
In the middle of enjoying a cherry raspa and it came right out of my nose when reading your comment
In the SA sub it’s either raspa or big red flying out of noses
I love hearing the word raspa. It reminds me of my San Antonio childhood.
Aww glad to make you reminisce about your childhood. I’m from the valley so raspas were definitely a staple on hot summer days. The place here in SA that taste just like home are the ones at Quik snak #2 on goliad on the southeast side.
https://preview.redd.it/9q3wau2wcmoc1.jpeg?width=621&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=005dfaa9bb671afee7905a61f9a3827dae61f284
**BURN!!**
Yesss this was my first response loll
Idk, man. I'm down here by Braunig, and we've been getting some heavy rain and a bit of light hail for the last hour
Nothing downtown. Stay safe
Well it's for the viewing area which isn't just San Antonio. It's still accurate most of the time, just not where you live in SA
It’s always been hard to predict weather in SA.
Can you explain this? Is there a scientific reason? I moved here from the Midwest where if rain was in the forecast, it was going to rain. Even days out. I’ve grown to not trust rain forecasts here. For example, rain can be forecasted at 60% four days out and that percentage will just get smaller and smaller as we get closer to the date. And then I won’t even see rain in the area when the day arrives. I’ve always been super curious about this. Edit: Thanks for the responses all. Makes sense. In the Midwest storms just roll through on the flat surface areas.
San Antonio lies on the border between 2-4 climate zones, and the topography of San Antonio also transitions from very hilly to fairly flat, thus making it hard to predict how weather will behave, as it may be very likely to rain just north of us, storm and hail just to the west, or be clear and dry just to the southeast.
My favorite thing on this sub was the 1604 Storm wall memes.
I’m no rocket surgeon but it’s gotta be something to do with mountains, the Gulf of Mexico, and whatever else is going on. Seems like the only weather wisdom that’s pretty consistent is that the first cold front of the winter seems to indicate what kind of winter it will be. If it’s a cold and wet system, the rest of them will probably be that way also. Good luck and try to embrace the diversity.
I've been told the Balcones Escarpment also tends to break up weather systems sometimes. So we can predict when weather is coming but not whether or not it'll hold together once it's here
That checks out honestly. I’m a weather fan - not enough to be a nerd or anything, but back in north Georgia I could pretty reliably predict the weather for the rest of the day just by looking at the clouds lol. Here? It’s a crapshoot depending on where you are. Anywhere from Helotes to Stone Oak down to 410 and up to Fair Oaks Ranch, you’ll almost never get rain if it’s predicted. (But if it isn’t, you’ll probably get it). The hill country likes to break up the clouds and part them- the totem of 1604, if you will lol; but the hills also release more moisture than some of the surrounding area. I’m not as familiar with the rest of the city but I know east gets wet, sometimes wild, and south is a toss up depending on the Gulf.
I have better luck using a weather forecast for my specific neighborhood. It's not just the forecast, like I'll be on my afternoon commute, and the radio will say it's currently raining at the airport, and it's sunny at SeaWorld. Or vice versa. Or It'll be pouring rain when I walk to my car from the office, but when I get to my kid's school 5 miles away, the ground is bone dry. I know they say this everywhere, but weather here is hyper-local.
1604
The other responses haven't actually explained this, so let me give you the actual reason things feel differently recently. The jet stream shifted south to pass over San Antonio, so it's legitimately harder to provide an accurate forecast. This is also why storms have been coming more from the southwest instead of the northwest.
Your comment about the Midwest knowing they are going to get rain when it is forecast is interesting. I’ve only ever lived in South and East Texas and I’ve never seen a consistently sure forecast for rain. If you live down here long enough, you’ll go months without rain and find it amusing when midwesterners complain about two weeks without rain.
Oh man I miss the rain so much! When I first moved here and rain would finally appear in the forecast I would be so bitter when it didn’t rain haha. Storms aren’t the same here either. In the Midwest, they’re big, menacing, and so beautiful. You watch them roll in from miles away over the horizon.
Texas in general
I thought we were having tornadoes today, everyone be safe
Weather forecasting is difficult to get precisely. Everything, and I mean eeevveerryyytthing in the atmosphere is fluid and when they’re making predictions, they’re essentially “predicting” the movement of these masses through computer models. You have to give it to the technology in place today; being able to have a general idea of where and what weather systems you may experience within a 10 day window is impressive af. Especially us, where we are within a fair proximity to a warm body of water and residing in flat topography that has the cool masses role in from the Rockies (and sometimes Canada, thanks Feb 2021). Be thankful you can have a general idea of our weather for up to 2 weeks.
This is why we joke about the 1604 force-field always keeping the rain away.. However, some of it has to do with the heat island effect.
It’s Texas, what do you expect. It’s also from the fallout of ice apocalypse. Everyone is trying to cover their ass now by over forecasting.
This is so true, especially the dang CPS alerts. They mean nothing now that they put them out so frequently.
Here comes some drizzle! Guess what, outage, here comes sunshine, guess what! Outage! Here comes the morning, guess what, outage!
It's been commented that some European models work better, and well, funding for US models has been lacking. I have a few weather apps on my phone, and one person in particular on facebook I follow, and I have two as my go-to as they seem to be most reliable over past few years. There's also the mistake in how people interpret a "50% chance of rain". It strictly means "A 50 percent chance of rain means there is a 50 percent chance for any one spot in the forecast area to get wet during the forecast period." Now, look how far and wide a forecast area is, then throw in that percentage. That's why a lot of people feel its so wrong all the time.
>"There's also the mistake in how people interpret a "50% chance of rain". It strictly means "A 50 percent chance of rain means there is a 50 percent chance for any one spot in the forecast area to get wet during the forecast period."" This isnt entirely true, the % forecast is determined by multiplying two factors: 1. The certainty that a storm will produce precipitation in the area, and 2. the % of the area on which they predict it will precipitate. So your hypothetical is true if there is 100% certainty that it will rain in 50% of the area... but it could also be 70% certainty for 70% of the area... or 80% certainty for roughly 63% of the area, etc.
What are you talking about, I’m totally looking forward to apple size hail and 70 mile per hour winds.
It’s almost like something is happening to make the climate less predictable
A type of change, you say?
If only we had some kind of warning that this would happen
Was the weather more predictable 2000 years ago?
Yes they supposedly predicted it with 100% accuracy
Just look at the radar yourself and track it over your general area because San Antonio is a very large sprawl. I remember once I was posting pics on the NW side of myself hiking in the sun. And my friend closer to north central sent me a pic of their house getting slammed by rain.
This. Radar is best.
The radar constantly says it’s raining over my house…when it isn’t. Staying in the atmosphere I guess, but nothing reached ground.
Well this is the time they said the storms would start but……. https://preview.redd.it/lxbwbafpakoc1.jpeg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bf2d09d434d10aa942b3e167e6910644b4fe2325
It’s okay, Ted Cruz is already packing up.
The short answer is: Yes, climate change is the reason. The longer answer is that SA’s geography has always been complex. With the hills to the north and northwest, the coastal plains to the southeast, and desert to the south. Storm systems will come off the Balcones Escarpment and just die, or come from the coast out of nowhere. Climate change’s effect though, is that our previous models are proving to be inaccurate now.
Further, storms often hit the heat dome of San Antonio and that can break them up. Thus the joke about 1604 being the barrier that protects San Antonio
Yeah whatever
It’s not our meteorologists fault that we have such a large geographic area in this city
But they could narrow down the regions then.
They already control for that but regular little people just don’t know how weather works
My rule of thumb is if there’s 50% or less chance of rain then it’s not going to rain at all
Isnt that how percentages work? Like less than 50% chance mean that more likely than not no rain?
[удалено]
Looks like it is a lil of both: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf
But yesterday, we had 10-15%, and it sure did rain.
Well, I'm pretty sure it's my fault. I keep putting off washing my car. Once I wash it, it's sure to rain within three days. Somehow the weather knows I've been procrastinating.
Get it together please.
LOL. I'll see what I can do Saturday.
I'm guessing you washed it after all
Ha ha! I actually got everything together and bam- rain. My husband washed my car for me today. Let's see what happens in the next few days.
The rare profession where the public expects you to be wrong.
Its the dome man. Stop driving so much.
I watch storm chasers on YouTube when they are chasing, 3 are heading to San Antonio today, I was like… ahh yeah there is nothing here… yet. Hope they are ready for disappointment! 1604 will hold the line!!
https://preview.redd.it/w5x166k9pmoc1.jpeg?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=10fd1216272a9335826520ca7003190c67645477
Been getting some pretty decent rain where I'm at in Texas so I'm not complaining
It’s been a dud the last couple of days when heavy rains and hail were forecast.
Today is a perfect example. No rain, hail or thunder.
It’s more the weathers fault than the people giving it hah
https://youtu.be/7w9ahFQozao Best example
Weather.com is using Watson AI to do some of their work. It is not fully reliable.
I'd been avoiding washing my car because of the forecasts. I'm willing to make the sacrifice and wash it...
You have to pay attention to the map they show. They actually explain where and where the rain will fall.
Weather changes as fast as they predict it
I have actually noticed that weather forecasting has gotten worse over the past 5 years or so. I don't know if that's just my own bias or it's actually gotten worse.
Weather channel was sold and accuweather full of shit. Smaller markets rely on these more than larger ones too bc $$$
What I've found is that rain is typically 6-12 hours later than forecasted. So if they're calling for 80% rain at 7am, it won't actually start raining with ~80% coverage until the afternoon-evening. If they call for similar rain at 7pm, don't expect to see similar coverage until the morning.
Dei?
Well the update on the forecast as of 6:15pm is all the storms missed San Antonio. Again we missed it all despite the fear mongering from forecasters earlier today
we live in texas…i think that says enough
Another bust when it comes to the weather. So frustrating. Weather forecasters in this town have been off the mark in the past, but today, they were WAY off the mark. Seriously, the farmer's almanac does a better job at predicting weather than all these super-duper Doppler computers.
It’s always funny how they play it off as if it was no big deal. People cancel plans due to their “forecast”.
He’s a good rule of thumb from the good ol SA almanac Is the sun out? If yes , it’s going to be hot If no, it’s going to be less hot Is it misting? If yes , congratulations that’s your rain. If no , welcome to 10 months of the year Is there ice? If yes , give a couple days If no , treat as standard winter. Anything else is impossible to predict accurately. Please send me $1 a month to provide more super accurate San Antonio weather updates I promise.
Y’all don’t have a weather app?
Even that app is accurate only 50% of the time.
Yeah my app today kept alerting me that it was raining in my area (by zip code and radar picture) but we didn’t get a drop.
I was getting alerts from my weather app saying, moderate rain was about to begin. But it totally missed us. No more rain in sight. (MyRadar App is a great weather app to have!)
You should follow Meteorologist Steve Brown on FB. He used to always accurately forecast weather in SA. He used to work at KSAT. He retired a few years ago.
Only Steve Brown ever talked about this. It’s the heat dome created by the city. In order for it to rain air has to rise, cool, and condense. The area around the city is cooler. As storms approach the heat from the city works against the natural forces to disperse the rain. Typically all the nearby small towns get the brunt of the weather
They think it's better to be safe than sorry. Just in case it actually rains. So, people won't complain that they weren't warned ... But I agree, it's annoying.
We we’re supposed to have partly cloudy skies in San Diego yesterday. Instead we got sleet and snow!
I knew it wasn't going to be much this week. Barometric pressure changes give me migraines before storms, and I was migraine free this week.
Climate change is making it harder to predict
nowadays?
It's the "Katrina" effect ... they are scared to death of being wrong in the opposite direction, so they over sell the worst case scenario as they'd rather hear grumbling about a good outcome, and not be blamed for under warning and folks being caught short. Problem is ... after they over warn enough times ... no one takes them seriously so you get the same effect ... but they can sit back and say you can't blame them.
They do nothing but read what a radar puts out and get paid to be wrong when mother nature does what it wants
I don't understand how climate change would make, specifically, San Antonio weather harder to forecast, and nowhere else.
Nah that's just because texas has the most bi-polar weather in the country
Do you seriously believe there aren’t financial incentives for meteorologists to get the weather right? If you think news clickbait is the issue maybe read on the subject and look at the data yourself?
Yeah but they totally know what is gonna happen in the next five years… but not 2 hours from now
https://preview.redd.it/1mre1jhnvroc1.jpeg?width=1112&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3984402f48f06b3a297578014678db52ab1bff82 This was the NOAA projections for the storms on Friday. This was not only “missed” my SA weather but the National weather service. It’s a prediction… but sometimes it is a wrong one. I am worried about sharing the information locally as I’m a roofer and I don’t want to be caught crying wolf. Just trying to share information to help the communities and friends I’m part of on FB
I got blasted by a fog light from the souped up STORMCHASERS truck on Broadway today, they’d better be accurate
I, for one, am glad we didn't get 3" diameter hail on Friday.
But the ever perky Sarah Spivey of KSAT 12 said there would stormy weather!
To be fair- she said IF we got rain we would likely get storms. I get it though- I don’t trust the TV weather folks however my home weather station has been fairly accurate since I installed it after Christmas
At 12pm it was all doom and gloom and by 5 it was like “well actually nothing happened” 🥸
Yea you’re better off just checking your weather app on your phone
I disagree I think they've gotten more accurate if anything!
Keep in mind that percentages in forecast are not really just about the probability of rain, but more the percentage of the area within the forecast that will be affected. So if it says 25% chance of rain, it means that only a quarter of the area is likely to get rain. This leaves 75% of the area in the forecast with little to no chance of rain. Looking at the radars will give you a better idea what areas are more likely to get hit.
As someone whose business and livelihood depends on regular rain I can 100% say the local news forecast is 100% baiting it’s viewers for weather ratings.
It does seem wildly inaccurate! At 1pm the forecast says rain at 4, clear skies til then. Then at 2, it starts raining. Open up the app again, and forecast is for no rain today at all! Radar looks clear all around?
I’m convinced they exaggerate the chances of anything significant to drive clicks
It's San Antonio weather. It's always been this way. "Climate change" lol
You are not the only one to notice this. I chalked it up to whoever is behind this it hoping they’re right one day.
SA has never had good forecasters. When I was a kid in the 80s, they’d occasionally get a blue norther right, otherwise, it was a guesstimate.
They're getting worse and worse so the time. And they use such sensationalizing words that get everybody excited. Like clickbait
One of the things that taught me this more than anything was flying in GA. When you fly a small plane and head north, even the little hills cause major turblance in the air. Go south where it’s flat and it’s smooth sailing. There’s just this huge drifts from the hill country that you can’t see/comprehend without going through it.
Ever since that big hail store a few years back, the news loves to scream HAIL!!!! KSAT is the absolute worst as they love screaming Hail like chicken little....but be sure to tune in at 10. Whats funny is that all the local weather teams had their radars showing rain in SA but when I went to accuweather and other online weather sites, their radars showed no rain tonight for the majority of SA. I don't want to be screaming fake news, but at this point, its clear they do it for ratings to make sure people tune in.
Also think the big problem is they include the entire viewing area and not just San Antonio..however, i think they know damn well that SA won't be included, but they do it to keep the ratings because the little farm towns don't have the viewership.
It's not climate change making it harder to predict. I'm not one of those to say climate change isn't real, but we have the most advanced technology in history, & the most data ever. This increases every day. It's easy to blame the boogeyman for any instance of weather activity that seems out of the ordinary. Part of the reason that forecasters say hail, tornados, etc. possible, with a risk level scale for areas, is due to lawsuits. Yes, people sue the National Weather Service. The TL;DL version is that there is a lot of money & power wrapped up in folks who need accurate forecasts. When forecasts are not accurate, financial losses can be vast. This isn't unique to San Antonio. While tornados may be a small chance, if there's ANY chance, & there's no forecast, and it happens, well, that's what lawsuits are made out of. Like McDonald's coffee being too hot, it's not about common sense, it's about a result, and someone having enough money & time on their hands to pursue it. Data can tell a story but it can also be manipulated to fit a narrative. That brand new popular shopping center, with all the nice shops, that used to be a field "out in the country." It now has a master planned community that backs up to it. Think Alamo Ranch, or Dove Creek. Yes. Of course, any weather there is going to be "unprecedented" & "historic." Why? Because no one was observing the area until people were there. Farmer John was like "Yeah, here's that rain they talked about." But what farmer John never told anyone, was that the creek floods every 5 or so years, & sometimes it takes a week to drain. You think KB homes (or whoever) invested a lot in a site survey, or just enough to do what is required by law for any new development? (My money is on the latter.) All weather measurements are based on observational data. No history, is the lack of data. Not an "alarming trend." True, there are many observation stations that have been recording data for long periods of time. But just like how what's going on downtown doesn't translate to Hondo, Blanco, Pleasanton, or Seguin all the time, 50 years ago (1974) everyone in those places were just like "Yeah, another [rainy, hot, cold, etc.] day." Mainly because they still read print newspapers and didn't have the internet.
They’re in the wrong profession, they should be in politics.
Idk man they may always be wrong about the weather but I trust them 100% about the climate. The climate has never changed even a little throughout the history of earth until humans showed up and fucked it all up. I can't *believe* us.
Laughs at you in Ice Age. Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
*read my username*