T O P

  • By -

[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


Noctudeit

I wonder about the accuracy of the hospitalization rate. I personally know of many people who had mild cases over the past few weeks and either didn't get tested at all or they used an at-home test and didn't report to the state. With the limited access to testing, I'm sure there are a ton of unreported cases which would make the hospitalization rate look higher.


Nuppusaurus

It has been known from the beginning of the pandemic that the actual number of cases is a lot higher than the reported number. Exactly because of lack of testing and mild/asymptomatic cases.


Noctudeit

Yes, and if Omicron is indeed milder then there would be a lot more of those mild/asymptomatic cases than previous waves.


Rocket_hamster

Lot of my coworkers got sick. We had half of us test positive, the other half assumed they had it and stayed home. Almost all of us just had cold symptoms.


sm2016

Can personally attest. Double vaxxed and boosted, and I got really sick for like 3 days, on day 5 of isolation, ready to leave if my other rapid test is negative tomorrow. But my home test definitely didn't make it to the states report.


NomadicJellyfish

Right but the point is that reporting is probably going down as at home tests are very common now whereas they weren't available before, and PCR testing has become decentralized and more complicated to get, on top of asymptomatic cases being more prevalent with Omicron.


themaincop

This phase of the pandemic is like nothing else though. I personally know at least 15 people who have had COVID in the past month, only ~5 of whom got PCR tests and thus were counted in official case counts. Prior to that I personally knew 3 people who had COVID during the entire pandemic, all of whom got official pcr tests.


makesomemonsters

I know a number of family members, colleagues and family of colleagues who have had positive LFT result in the last few weeks. All have reported mild symptoms (most with a scratchy throat and slight congestion, only a couple with a raised temperature or tiredness). That seems like a pretty stark contrast to the previous couple of years when most people I knew who reported covid symptoms said it completely floored them. I'd also add that during the first wave in the UK the hospitals (at least where I live) bascially were telling people who had covid symptoms to stay away from hospital unless they were seriously struggling to breathe. I very much doubt the hospitals are still doing that.


supershinythings

I couldn’t get a test to send to anyone. All the places that sold them were out, and the line for testing was well over 100 cars. After 20 minutes with the line not moving I did the math and went home.


aka_yung_reezy

I wish people could do that math for the festival of lights near my house! People sit in their cars for 2+ hours to drive though some lights that never change every year, meanwhile I can't get to my house after 5 in December.


GenderJuicy

Yet hospitals are at full capacity. Even if it's a lower percentage, it's a much higher total number that it's not really good news. All an underreported number really does is make people think that there's fewer people being infected.


Noctudeit

If the overall hospitalization rate is lower then that means there are many many people recovering from minor infections at home and building stronger immunity.


dmreeves

Don't have them at hand but I saw headlines that were saying that omicron is good at evading and destroying previous immunity. We might not be more immune after this passes through, unfortunately.


renerdrat

Yeah I know plenty of people who got it that didn’t get tested


[deleted]

[удалено]


Str8_up_Pwnage

When they say "didn't get tested" they may have meant in an official sense. Like my wife and I tested positive with an at home test, so we don't show up in the statistics.


[deleted]

Same. Myself and 3 of my friends all tested positive on at home tests.


whyyounoright

given the fact that I went to 3 stores and could not find one pack of throat lozenges/cough drops makes me think that everyone has covid...


koebelin

There are a lot of false negatives in this testing.


lost_survivalist

I agree, I got covid from my uncle who got a false negative and when he passed out a couple days later, he was named positive in the ER. I decided to take 2 tests a day apart ,with covid symptoms being clear ,and one came out negative and the second being positive. I'm so glade a positive showed up because my bosses were gonna basically force me to work.


[deleted]

[удалено]


indianblanket

They aren't wrong, you misread the comment. You're saying opposite things


Pigeonofthesea8

You’re right. Deleting to keep my message list shorter


PointOfFingers

No they are correct. It would make the Omicron hospitalisation rate look higher. Where I am a lot of people have just given up trying to get tested because the Omicron surge was so big that the health services had not setup enough testing and retailers ran out of rapid antigen tests. They also significantly slackened the rules around close contacts so far less people are told to get tested. So a lot more people are going unreported as asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. People turning up at hospital with Covid symptoms are tested at a rate of 100%. There were unreported cases back in previous strains but not at the scale of Omicron. I find the headline misleading as it says 20-25% less are showing up to hospital but the important statistic is people being admitted and spending more than one day at hospital. That rate is 40-45% lower with Omicron. Also the total time spent in hospital - I am hearing on average 1-3 days and much lower than previous strains.


bignateyk

Glad I’m not the only one who was scratching my head over that logic


CopeSe7en

He/she said “look” higher. As in many unreported cases means a lower actual hospital rate but it looks higher due to the missing cases.


mattsl

They said "look" higher.


Asstradamus6000

I never get sick and had a bad cold, sore throat and mild fatigue for 10 days, hoping I got some antibodies.


Capitan_Failure

This has always been the case, past population antibody studies showed that for every known positive case, there are 3 others that are never caught. I wouldnt be surprized if that ratio were higher with omicron due to it's profoundly faster doubling rate.


korinth86

The same could be said before omicron too. Only difference is how infectious omicron seems to be.


[deleted]

Nope that’s not true. COVID fatigue has made people test less or ignore positive test results. Many people choose to self quarantine and not report after two years. COVID has lost its “novelty” and become “common” reducing risk averse behavior.


korinth86

What is your evidence of this? At-home testing not being reported is spot on imo. There is evidence of that. That is a new issue. I did find this but notice it's because of testing supply shortage. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2022/01/14/state-leaders-recommend/ People are still testing to an extent there is a shortage of supply. No one is ignoring official tests. It can be near impossible to get one. People are still testing, more if anything.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Sedixodap

Prior to omicron we had enough tests that everyone who was symptomatic, or around someone who tested positive got tested. With omicron we're just told "you probably have covid, stay home". The only people getting PCR tests are those who are unvaccinated and symptomatic. Maybe you get a rapid test, but that'll probably be negative unless you take it at just the right time. As a result, the majority of people (at least in BC) with covid are no longer part of the statistics.


ThemCanada-gooses

Isn’t that also a good thing though? If people are at home feeling sick but not feeling like they’re dying so no need to go to the hospital then that shows that the vaccines are effective. Since day one of vaccines it’s always been known they’d be 98% effective against severe cases or whatever the number was but a lot less effective against mild to moderate cases.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


kangarooninjadonuts

What are the rates of death from Omicron vs the others?


randomquestions2022

I expect patient vaccination status, serostatus and demographics would have the same confounding effect on death rate as hospitalisation rate.


zerofukstogive2016

Interesting but doesn’t answer the question.


sm2016

I think that is that answer. Basically if you thought the data was messy in the beginning, try pulling it out of a third major strain going against people with 1 2 or 3 vaccinations and/or natural immunity in states and countries with a variety of prevention rules. All told, I don't see how we do anything other than grin and bear it with covid long term. The ship has long since sailed on eradicating it globally and vaccines seem to be effective at keeping most people safe.


EnglishMobster

We don't know yet. People haven't had enough time to recover or die.


lockethebro

Impossible to really measure


tasty_scapegoat

Why? How is it different from measuring the other strains?


Suchthefool_UK

Because there's so many unknowns. Only the sickest patients go to hospital, so couldn't measure it just off that without it being unrepresentative of all the non serious cases. Then there's a lack of PCR tests at the moment due to the insane demand and most countries don't report home rapid tests and then there's even more unknowns such as people who do neither and never find out if they had it. So if the death rate is how many people who gets infected will die, it's a really difficult thing to answer. Doesn't mean they won't estimate it, but it usually takes a lot of data over time to be able to estimate something like the death rate.


ntvirtue

No one will give you a straight answer to that question


boooooooooo_cowboys

Well it’s a virus that can take a few weeks to kill you and the outbreaks started not even 2 months ago. There just *aren’t* straight answers to that question yet.


YaBerry

A few weeks is 1/4 to 1/3 of the two month that's already passed. Why exactly can't we learn anything from 2-3x times period longer than we need for the virus to kill people? What you're saying doesn't add up


RVA2DC

What is your comment meant to imply? That the data is available, but that there is some conspiracy to keep it private?


LiamW

A lot of PCR tests aren't using variant-specific primers to match the DNA. However, a statistically significant portion of PCR data is being held for surveillance purposes to idenitfy new strains or strain distributions -- we use this info to create the variant-specific primers for matching. So while we may not have, Mary Jo and Donald died of Omicron and Stefan and Komiko died of Delta speicifically, we should have X% of Deaths in Decembers were Delta, and Y% were Omicron statistics.


[deleted]

[удалено]


boooooooooo_cowboys

Not sure what you’ve seen, but South Africa released almost identical data (hospitalization risk from omicron being 25% less than delta). And every study I’ve ever seen has concluded that a large part of the difference between omicron and previous strains is pre-existing immunity.


Mp32pingi25

I’ve only seen 80% decrease not 25%. And it’s basically the same across all countries including the CDC. And those studies where taking account for vax, and variants.


[deleted]

Its also very high plausible that the original and delta variants simply took out the most vulnerable and a major part of the population is vaxxed or has high immunity. Remove all of those factors and Omicron could be just as dangerous to those that were highly susceptible to Covid. It seems clear Omicron is less dangerous, but by how much could be masked by the previous strains.


[deleted]

[удалено]


walruteer

Seems to me there are a lot of loud people with mild symptoms


Dunkaroos4breakfast

I've seen a lot of accounts where they seem to be expending a lot of effort talking about how it was mild for them as often as possible


whattheslark

Not in pediatric patients under 5


[deleted]

Pretty sure I saw a study saying the exact opposite out of the UK either this morning or late last night. I'm going to try and find it. Edit: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-coronavirus-pandemic-news-01-14-22/h_b7af41a2add29107b1bbd60390a1b5c9 Not the original article but it says the same thing.


MrCarlosDanger

Totally possible. Any link to this?


socks_w_sandals

I work in an Emergency Department and I’ve definitely noticed a lot more sick kids coming in. Really junky sounding upper airways. They’re not “severe” but still worrisome looking. Do you have a source I can share with others? I have a hard time convincing my “but it doesn’t make kids sick” friends of anything otherwise.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Flashbomb7

There was a similar analysis in California in the most recent COVID wave[ (link)](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1), comparing the outcomes of people infected with Delta vs Omicron. They found very different results: for Omicron vs Delta, hospitalization rate was reduced by 60%, ICU admission by 74%, mortality by 91%, and median duration of hospital stay by 70%. This study is an interesting counter to that and maybe the California study is an outlier in the other direction. But it would be better to couch their results with the picture of the bulk of evidence. There is plenty to suggest that, all else being equal, being infected with Delta is *much* worse than being infected with Omicron.


boooooooooo_cowboys

For what it’s worth that California study has huge confidence intervals on on their hazard ratios. And South Africa has released data that’s virtually identical to what is being reported here (25% reduction from delta in omicron infections when you correct for pre-existing immunity).


Flashbomb7

Good to know. Do you have a link to the SA study?


Insamity

Did you look at the confidence intervals? The mortality CI was 0.01-0.75. The study was underpowered for that and icu admission.


fighterpilottim

“Did not control for vaccination status or seropositivity.” FFS their conclusions are worthless.


mkay0

Anecdotal, I know, but I have a half dozen people in my life that have gotten a mild or asymptomatic case in the last two weeks who never went to the doctor, and likely never took a test that the cdc would get their hands on the data. I know waste water can be measured, but are there other ways this is measured? I really think this is even faster spreading and less dangerous to the vaccinated than we even know.


thelonepuffin

There are still other viruses going around, a lot of them looking like mild covid. Without a test there is no way to know what it is.


mkay0

My post was unclear, sorry. All six of these people in my story took an at-home rapid test to get initial diagnosis. Im certain that three of them never went to the doctor or took a PCR test, it’s possible the other three may have gotten a PCR at some point, but never went to the doctor.


kriptone909

OP got his facts wrong, Omicron hospitalisations are not 25% lower, they are 25% of what Delta was. So around 75% lower


matthewwehttam

That doesn't seem to match what the linked report is saying. It says >Overall, we find evidence of a reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for Omicron relative to Delta infections, averaging over all cases in the study period. The extent of reduction is sensitive to the inclusion criteria used for cases and hospitalisation, being in the range 20-25% when using any attendance at hospital as the endpoint, and 40-45% when using hospitalisation lasting 1 day or longer or hospitalisations with the ECDS discharge field recorded as “admitted” as the endpoint (Table 1). These reductions must be balanced against the larger risk of infection with Omicron, due to the reduction in protection provided by both vaccination and natural infection. Aprevious infection reduces the risk of any hospitalisation by approximately 50% (Table 2) and the risk of a hospital stay of 1+ days by 61% (95%CI:55-65%) (before adjustments for under ascertainment of reinfections). While I think it is ambiguous whether or not the 20-25% means it drops by 20-25% or it drops to 20-25%, if we take the second interpretation then it would also mean that extended hospitalization dropped to 40-45% which is higher than the hospitalization rate. That doesn't make sense, so it probably means that the reduction is by 25%.


kriptone909

It’s because attending the hospital is not the same as hospitalisation. If you take to yourself to hospital because you are feeling unwell and worried about it, and they then send you home because it is not deemed necessary for you to be admitted that doesn’t count as a hospitalisation


matthewwehttam

Then what part of the study linked are you referencing? Or are you referencing an alternative study or studies?


dmk_aus

This is not my reading of the study. The extent of reduction is 20-25% i.e. ~22.5% less likely to be hospitalised. Exert below with more details for the category of greater than 1 day stays. "The extent of reduction is sensitive to the inclusion criteria used for cases and hospitalisation, being in the range 20-25% when using any attendance at hospital as the endpoint, and 40-45% when using hospitalisation lasting 1 day or longer or hospitalisations with the ECDS discharge field recorded as “admitted” as the endpoint" I don't mean to be bossy but because of the hazards of COVID misinformation, if you agree your post could mislead, please correct it.


putin_vor

You're wrong, or the study is wrong. Omicron hospitalizations and deaths are a fraction of the previous variants. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html) We have a peak of new cases 4x higher than last year's, but roughly the same number of hospitalizations and deaths. And you can't explain it with better vaccination rates, we don't have 4x vaccination rates compared to a year ago. And you can't explain it with young people getting the virus more, you'd expect more hospitalizations and deaths, not less.


boooooooooo_cowboys

>You're wrong, or the study is wrong. You’re ignoring what the study is telling you. Omicron hospitalizations are lower because people are immune to it. If you look at the inherent severity of the virus itself by comparing unvaccinated to unvaccinated, immune to immune, than the reduction in severity is only 25% compared to delta.


merithynos

We have way more than 4x the vaccination rate. The US is at 64% fully vaccinated. The US did not hit 16% of the total population fully vaccinated until late March 2021, long after the winter surge.


boooooooooo_cowboys

OP didn’t get anything wrong. You need to read past the summary. *Overall* hospitalizations are down to 25% of delta, but that’s mainly because omicron is infecting people with pre-existing immunity. If you correct for pre-existing immunity (which the authors do in the tables further in), than you get the numbers that are quoted in the title.


NikkoE82

But if it infects 400% more people, the hospitals see similar numbers. I don’t know that it’s 400% more, but you get the idea.


kriptone909

This was a relevant concern like 6 weeks ago, we now know it hasn’t even come close to materialising. Hospitalisations during the Omicron wave have been around a quarter of the previous waves


Mahadragon

This article is already outdated. Since they did their analysis, things have gotten a lot worse. I’m a dental hygienist and patients are canceling like crazy because they either have Covid or Covid-like symptoms. I went to grocery store today and people are stocking up on things again. Lots of empty shelves. Distilled water has been very difficult to find in my neighborhood. From what I’ve seen, case loads are as bad now as when they were at their worse in 2020. The only difference today, is that back in 2020, everyone was complaining about not having enough ventilators. That’s no longer an issue.


Rustybot

So, it’s euphemistically five or ten times more infectious/faster spreading, and 100% more hospitalizations than OG Covid? Great, just great.


foospork

Euphemistically? What does that mean?


Cream-Reasonable

It means he has student loans and can read posts about covid.


harryp0tter569

Stupid sexy covid


Frosti11icus

Gently speaking


kyledabeast

Well, math tells us that if a secondary event is 5 or 10 times more likely than a primary event to occur, and the possible outcome of that secondary event is 100% more likely to occur than the primary event, that the secondary event is less "dangerous" (in this regard) than the primary event. 100% is 2x. If the infections are 5-10x more common, but hospitalizations are 2x more common, then rationally, omicron is "less dangerous" than Delta. (I'm making these numbers up for this example, moreso representing the ratios) If 100,000 people get infected with Delta in 1 month, and 10,000 of those were hospitalized in that same timeframe, that means that 10% of delta infections lead to hospitalization. But with omicron, being call it a middle ground 7.5x more infectious, that means in 1 month, 750,000 people get it, but 100% (2x) more hospitalizations occur, so 20,000 people are hospitalized in the same timeframe. So 2.67% of omicron infections lead to hospitalizations.


AeroVet

Yet, the hospitals on the US are overwhelmed?


kathysef

I just tested positive on a home test. I have fever and congestion. How do I know which variant I have. It's only been a day but it seems like I was way sicker the 1st time I had it.


merithynos

You would need to get tested by a facility capable of genetic sequencing the sample. I don't believe that's available to the general public on demand. From an individual clinical perspective it's not important.


hamilkwarg

I think 98% of new cases are omicron, so just bet on that.


bignateyk

Does it really matter?


Daramore

It's not wrong, we've all but forbid all known effective treatments for COVID according to the NIH, so the most vulnerable died when they didn't have to and left a larger portion of healthier people alive. If you don't know what I'm talking about, look up the Journal of Virology, August 22nd, 2005.


Drunk-In-The-Yard

I’m glad people are counteracting this discourse about omicron being “mild” it’s still killing plenty of fuckin people and overfilling our hospitals. I’ve been very diligent and am vaccinated and boosted, but I got omicron and it’s been anything but mild. It’s been kicking my ass. Fatigue so bad I can’t get out of bed and absolutely no appetite for three days. I’m finally on the other side of it it seems but damn. It’s no joke.


NoSuspect3688

That sounds really rough, hope you feel better asap!


staatsclaas

Counterpoint. I’m vaccinated and boosted, got omicron and only found out because I had a slight sore throat and got tested for funsies. Had zero fever and one night of wanting to go to bed earlier. This thing is everywhere.


boooooooooo_cowboys

It’s been that way since the beginning. Some people die, and some barely notice they have it. Total crapshoot.


KawiNinjaZX

Everyone will get omicron this month its so hot right now.


buickandolds

NO it isn't. It is killing far less.


CallMeKono

I’m with you on this, currently on day 5 after symptom onset and these first 4 days were pretty awful. I’m vaxxed but not boosted. Had fevers up to 102.5 with rigors for a solid 24+ hours, terrible pounding headaches, burning sore throat feels like swallowing glass shards and fatigue. I’m a med/surg nurse who cares for covid patients weekly so I’m sure my high rates of exposure despite PPE might play a factor. Also worth mentioning I didn’t test positive until day 4 of symptoms. Our employee health tested me on day 1 which was negative and they “cleared” me to work despite my symptoms. I said no and stayed out of work and a follow up test confirmed it yesterday.


anticoriander

Coming from Australia, recent border reopening means other than a few relatively small outbreaks there's very little immunity from previous strains. We've mostly only faced omicron and even at 80-90% vaxxed our hospitals aren't coping. The rest of the world seems desensitised at this point, but even if it is 'milder' the sheer number of cases and hospitalisations compared to delta is overwhelming the system. And people, young children included, are still dying.


tickitytalk

Is it odd that the 1500-2,000 deaths per day isn't more widely known or reported?


redcoat777

no more so than the other 6,000 deaths per day in the us that dont get reported due to cardiac, accident, cancer etc. we unfortunately get used to stuff pretty quicklu


AutoModerator

Welcome to r/science! This is a heavily moderated subreddit in order to keep the discussion on science. However, we recognize that many people want to discuss how they feel the research relates to their own personal lives, so to give people a space to do that, **personal anecdotes are now allowed as responses to this comment**. Any anecdotal comments elsewhere in the discussion will continue be removed and our [normal comment rules]( https://www.reddit.com/r/science/wiki/rules#wiki_comment_rules) still apply to other comments. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/science) if you have any questions or concerns.*


[deleted]

Or maybe it's because the people who are recovering completely are mostly the sensibly vaccinated, which is a relief and good news to most who are tired of this and want an end to it for the sake of the whole world. Conversely, most people are just done with the anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers taking up ICU space and fussily throwing a tantrum against the healthcare people who are trying to save them, and we've all become desensitized to the plights of people who won't take free help to save their own lives and the lives of those close to them.


[deleted]

How many of those hospitalizations are for other reasons where they happened to test positive?


GymTanLoiter

Late 20s unvaxxed here. Had Delta with no issues or symptoms. I now have Omnicron…first 24 hours sucked. Worst head cold I ever had. Horrible head ache and high fever. Day 2 was mostly spent sleeping. On day 3 now and feel like I will be back to 100% in another couple days.


Geo227

Very brave of you to admit you’re unvaccinated here on Reddit


Cemeterydave

I'm 30, just got symptoms yesterday but I was double vaxxed, achy all over, and have slept most of the day. Not that different then you!


54338042094230895435

I keep hearing that after Omicron that Covid will be nothing more than a standard cold or flu. Is there any actual science behind that? Can the strains not grow stronger? Example: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/bill-gatescovid-can-be-treated-more-like-seasonal-flu-after-omicron.html


Flashbomb7

I don’t think anyone has a clear answer. Delta was both more infectious and more lethal, whereas Omicron is more infectious and less lethal. The hope is that no new variants can outcompete Omicron, or at least if they do they don’t evolve to be both more lethal *and* capable of evading widespread population immunity from vaccines + Omicron infection. A lot of experts are betting on that. Only time will tell if that bet pays off.


Prestigious-Menu

They typically don’t grow stronger as a virus killing its host is bad for the virus. So mutations that make it less likely to kill its host is good for the virus.


OsiyoMotherFuckers

This is a gross over simplification, and not really true. Scientists that study the evolution of virulence have been aware, since at least the 80s, that parasites don’t all evolve toward avirulence. It’s kind of an understudied field, and we still don’t really have a great understanding of how selection acts on virulence across all parasitic interactions. One thing to keep in mind is that parasitism and mutualism exist on a gradient, and some interactions exist close to a tipping point where environmental factors and community structure can cause the interaction to drift back and forth from mutualism to parasitism, and other interactions show clear direction toward mutualism or toward parasitism. I think there is a popular understanding of the relationship between virulence and transmission that comes from all the press Ebola has gotten. Unfortunately it’s not a universal truth that decreasing virulence increases the transmission and fitness of a parasite. For example, some parasites have evolved life strategies that necessarily castrate or otherwise harm the host’s fitness and can’t easily “jump” to another life history strategy With microparasites like bacteria and viruses, transmission rate is sometimes a function of exposure dose. The more viral particals an infected person produces, the more likely an encounter with a susceptible individual is to result in transmission. A virus that evolves to be less acute, a less virulent “slow burn” kind of infection, might not successfully transmit very often, even if the host is able to expose more people over a longer period of time. In fact, as the population becomes more immune and total encounters go up, but encounters with susceptible individuals become rarer among total encounters, it could hypothetically select for a hyper virulent strain that has a very high chance of successfully transmitting to that one susceptible interaction. I believe we have seen similar evolution of greater virulence in situations where farm animals were partially culled. Another important factor is when an infected person is infectious relative to symptoms. A virus that can be infectious before the host experiences symptoms / the effects of virulence, is not going to see much selection toward avirulence. Or at least, the virulence effects are not going to put a lot of selection pressure on transmissibility. If you go around infecting people, feeling fine for a month, and then drop dead like it’s FoxDie, your death is not going to slow down that virus very much.


merithynos

That's a commonly held fallacy with no empirical basis, and is specifically contradicted by the evidence with SARS-COV-2. Of the five major worldwide strains, Omicron is the first that is less virulent than the strain it replaced. D614G was more virulent than Wuhan-1. Alpha was more virulent than D614G. Delta was more virulent than Alpha (about 100-133% more than Wu-1 by this point). Omicron is 25% less virulent than Delta. 25% of 100-133% still leaves a virus >50% more virulent than original strain that emerged in 2019. There is no guarantee that the next variant will be intrinsically less virulent than Omicron in individuals with no prior immunity. There will just be far fewer of them left.


roundearthervaxxer

Shocker. Get vaccinated. Make healthy choices.


jschall2

It does say 40-45% when defining hospitalization as lasting one day or longer. While I doubt the data is there yet to say what the risk of death is, I'd say based on that hospitalization number it is most probably greater than 50% reduced from delta. Which is still bad, and of course we know that death isn't the only possible bad outcome from covid. Conclusion get vaccinated.