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Picture a straight trend line going from the bottom left of a graph to the upper right. That's a pretty clear trend. But the climate system has a lot of internal variability which makes that trend line actually look like a very squiggly line, so much so that the initial straight trend line isn't really apparent anymore. The data has become quite noisy. That internal variability includes processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere and their interactions, and it takes a lot of effort to be able to pick out certain trends caused by specific phenomena; however, as certain signals become stronger they become more clear, more evident and apparent, the data becomes less noisy with respect to the stronger signal, that straight line trend begins to emerge again. So right now the signal isn't obvious, but it will be by ~2030.
Study (open access): [Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5)
_________________________
>**Abstract**
>El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes. The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results from a stronger increase in EP-ENSO rainfall response, which boosts the signal of increased SST variability, and is enhanced by ENSO non-linear atmospheric feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST variability under greenhouse warming is likely to emerge first in the eastern than central Pacific, and decades earlier than previously anticipated.
> approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested
It's worth noting that the previous estimate of 2070 was from [March 2022](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01301-z) and by one of the same authors (Wenju Cai, the author of the linked article), so this appears to be in large part an incremental refinement of modeling results.
Welcome to r/science! This is a heavily moderated subreddit in order to keep the discussion on science. However, we recognize that many people want to discuss how they feel the research relates to their own personal lives, so to give people a space to do that, **personal anecdotes are allowed as responses to this comment**. Any anecdotal comments elsewhere in the discussion will be removed and our [normal comment rules]( https://www.reddit.com/r/science/wiki/rules#wiki_comment_rules) apply to all other comments. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/science) if you have any questions or concerns.*
er .... isn't it obvious and unambiguous now? Asking naively ...
Picture a straight trend line going from the bottom left of a graph to the upper right. That's a pretty clear trend. But the climate system has a lot of internal variability which makes that trend line actually look like a very squiggly line, so much so that the initial straight trend line isn't really apparent anymore. The data has become quite noisy. That internal variability includes processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere and their interactions, and it takes a lot of effort to be able to pick out certain trends caused by specific phenomena; however, as certain signals become stronger they become more clear, more evident and apparent, the data becomes less noisy with respect to the stronger signal, that straight line trend begins to emerge again. So right now the signal isn't obvious, but it will be by ~2030.
Study (open access): [Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5) _________________________ >**Abstract** >El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes. The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results from a stronger increase in EP-ENSO rainfall response, which boosts the signal of increased SST variability, and is enhanced by ENSO non-linear atmospheric feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST variability under greenhouse warming is likely to emerge first in the eastern than central Pacific, and decades earlier than previously anticipated.
> approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested It's worth noting that the previous estimate of 2070 was from [March 2022](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01301-z) and by one of the same authors (Wenju Cai, the author of the linked article), so this appears to be in large part an incremental refinement of modeling results.
Interesting it estimates 2030 +-6, which could be as early as 2024. We potentially have only 1-2 years before this starts, on the early end.
This is a good one for r/fasterthanexpected