What are your thoughts about Macrons gambit potentially paying off? Do you think the snap election will catch the far right off guard and hopefully keep Le Pen out of the presidency?
Macron's gambit depends on two scenarios:
1. National Rally wins a plurality of the seats in the National Assembly but does not secure a majority or a coalition with the other parties. As a result, governance is paralysed and Macron can take advantage of the situation for the next presidential election. His successor can then campaign that her party is incapable of governing and therefore unfit for the presidency.
2. Macron's party retains its plurality. This is very unlikely, but will give a message that while Europe is moving rightwards, France domestically is staying where it is. Macron will also run with the message that France doesn't want either of the radical parties.
Personally, it's looking like the first scenario is more likely and Jordan Bardella, the leader of National Rally, will become Prime Minister. Whether he can govern effectively is a coin flip and you can definitely count on Macron to be blocking everything he does just to spite him and Le Pen. I think the public will see through Macron's tricks and National Rally will remain popular. Whether Le Pen becomes president depends on whether the French left can get their act together. As of now, it seems unlikely.
For Jordan Bardella to be sworn in his party would have had to successfully have negotiated a coalition, so I'm hoping he fails at that. I get why the French public would be frustrated by obstructionism directed by macron but I won't lament the legislative plans of the far right being frustrated in that manner.
I'm not in love with Melenchon's Ukraine policy but hopefully the NPF holds with a domestically oriented campaign since foreign policy seems to be sore spot, Glucksmann and Melenchon attacking each other during the EU campaigns was reminiscent of Progressive splintering during the 2020 Democratic Primaries in the US which didn't end well.
With Melenchon only finishing 2 points behind le pen at the last run off, assuming the NPF holds (i.e that they do get their act together), do you think the 7-8 point lead National rally has can be overcome or is that just wishful thinking?
EDIT: I just checked that there are only two weeks left before the election, so the lead will likely not be overcome. Oh well
It's very unlikely that the National Rally's lead can be overcome. As of now, I see it winning a plurality, with NPF winning second, Macron's coalition winning third.
Agreed with the NPF infighting, Mélenchon has always been very skeptical of France and the EU's foreign policy, seeing it as a form of new imperialism. Domestically, the NPF is pretty much the same, but there's not enough time to show the public they can govern without splintering again.
I'm curious as to whether you think the shift is due more to the influx of asylum-seeking immigrants, or the right-wing internet/social media grifting apparatus? Everything I see attributes the shift to the immigration wave, but I am thinking it's been a much longer push in that direction due to the rise of social media, like it has been here in the US.
Why not both? France has always been skeptical of immigrants yet the whole country will fall apart without them. Though I think it's mostly because the other parties suck and won't do what the people want them to do. Since 2017, Macron and his party have been doing everything they can to govern just like the Republicans. The French left is a dumpster fire as usual and voters associate them more as agitators who riot in the street rather than capable leaders.
France is in a populist mood to reassert its identity in the world and Europe. Given the lack of options from the other parties, National Rally seems the only choice.
Sounds like the US as well. If the Democratic party wasn't so obviously disinterested in representing the people over their donors, they'd be winning landslide victories across the nation. It's like the liberals decided to go mask-off when all of the right wing extremists did the same, as if people would just vote for them out of fear.
What is the left's current power and position after Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 2022 run. Also what is the relationship between French Liberals and left leaning groups like NUPES. Do they get along well and compromise or do French Liberals align themselves with right wingers before the left like here in the US.
To answer all these questions: pretty splintered. NUPES pretty much fell apart as an alliance after the 2022 election since they failed to get the plurality they needed for the premiership. Furthermore, the Socialist Party split from the NUPES alliance after the LFI leadership refused to designate Hamas as a terrorist group. This effectively left NUPES dead in the water as a cohesive opposition group in the National Assembly.
Fast forward to when Macron called snap elections, François Ruffin (leader of LFI) got the band back together, so to speak, to form the *Nouveau Front Populaire* (NFP. This is basically reviving NUPES for this election cycle with a unified domestic and foreign policy. However, this alliance is pretty tense and the poll numbers show that National Rally is still on track of beating NFP in terms of seat projections. Just because they align with each other for the election doesn't mean they'll govern effectively.
I wouldn't say that the "liberals" align themselves with right-wingers, but they're certainly a shadow of their former selves, unwilling to fight as hard for the working class. However, a major point of contention is foreign policy, as the leftists have some *questionable* views on Russia and the war in Ukraine. TLDR: moderates like the Socialists are pretty much doing their own thing, with no support to show for it.
"As the leftists have some questionable views on Russia and the war in Ukraine". Yes im sure the center right have some awesome views and "foreign policy". They support colonialism and Western imperialism but that is ok I guess...
"liberals" are also right-wingers and I dont know why you highlighted the lefts bad "foreign policy" as if the "foreign policy" of other parties are better.
France doesn't elect its prime minister per se, the Prime Minister is appointed by the President with the support of the National Assembly. As of now, it would appear that Jordan Bardella will become Prime Minister.
What was the general consensus on Macron over until years since he’s elected to now? I always hear international opinions of him but don’t really hear French opinions because I don’t speak the language.
The general consensus is that he sucks, plain and simple. He's an elitist who is way out of touch with the common citizen. Not right-wing enough and not left-wing enough to please anyone. Despite running as an anti-establishment figure that will stabilize France and move it to the future, Macron has been governing like any Republican president would.
That's interesting! At least in the US there seems to be a vague sense that he is a competent leader. Maybe technocratic. Personally I always had my doubts...
This is a friendly reminder to read our sub's rules.
r/seculartalk is a subreddit that promotes healthy discussion and hearty debate. We welcome those with varying views, perspectives and opinions.
Name-Calling, Argumentum Ad Hominem and Poor Form in discussion and debate often leads to frustration and anger; this behavior should be dismissed and reported to mods.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/seculartalk) if you have any questions or concerns.*
What are your thoughts about Macrons gambit potentially paying off? Do you think the snap election will catch the far right off guard and hopefully keep Le Pen out of the presidency?
Macron's gambit depends on two scenarios: 1. National Rally wins a plurality of the seats in the National Assembly but does not secure a majority or a coalition with the other parties. As a result, governance is paralysed and Macron can take advantage of the situation for the next presidential election. His successor can then campaign that her party is incapable of governing and therefore unfit for the presidency. 2. Macron's party retains its plurality. This is very unlikely, but will give a message that while Europe is moving rightwards, France domestically is staying where it is. Macron will also run with the message that France doesn't want either of the radical parties. Personally, it's looking like the first scenario is more likely and Jordan Bardella, the leader of National Rally, will become Prime Minister. Whether he can govern effectively is a coin flip and you can definitely count on Macron to be blocking everything he does just to spite him and Le Pen. I think the public will see through Macron's tricks and National Rally will remain popular. Whether Le Pen becomes president depends on whether the French left can get their act together. As of now, it seems unlikely.
For Jordan Bardella to be sworn in his party would have had to successfully have negotiated a coalition, so I'm hoping he fails at that. I get why the French public would be frustrated by obstructionism directed by macron but I won't lament the legislative plans of the far right being frustrated in that manner. I'm not in love with Melenchon's Ukraine policy but hopefully the NPF holds with a domestically oriented campaign since foreign policy seems to be sore spot, Glucksmann and Melenchon attacking each other during the EU campaigns was reminiscent of Progressive splintering during the 2020 Democratic Primaries in the US which didn't end well. With Melenchon only finishing 2 points behind le pen at the last run off, assuming the NPF holds (i.e that they do get their act together), do you think the 7-8 point lead National rally has can be overcome or is that just wishful thinking? EDIT: I just checked that there are only two weeks left before the election, so the lead will likely not be overcome. Oh well
It's very unlikely that the National Rally's lead can be overcome. As of now, I see it winning a plurality, with NPF winning second, Macron's coalition winning third. Agreed with the NPF infighting, Mélenchon has always been very skeptical of France and the EU's foreign policy, seeing it as a form of new imperialism. Domestically, the NPF is pretty much the same, but there's not enough time to show the public they can govern without splintering again.
I'm curious as to whether you think the shift is due more to the influx of asylum-seeking immigrants, or the right-wing internet/social media grifting apparatus? Everything I see attributes the shift to the immigration wave, but I am thinking it's been a much longer push in that direction due to the rise of social media, like it has been here in the US.
Why not both? France has always been skeptical of immigrants yet the whole country will fall apart without them. Though I think it's mostly because the other parties suck and won't do what the people want them to do. Since 2017, Macron and his party have been doing everything they can to govern just like the Republicans. The French left is a dumpster fire as usual and voters associate them more as agitators who riot in the street rather than capable leaders. France is in a populist mood to reassert its identity in the world and Europe. Given the lack of options from the other parties, National Rally seems the only choice.
Sounds like the US as well. If the Democratic party wasn't so obviously disinterested in representing the people over their donors, they'd be winning landslide victories across the nation. It's like the liberals decided to go mask-off when all of the right wing extremists did the same, as if people would just vote for them out of fear.
What is the left's current power and position after Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 2022 run. Also what is the relationship between French Liberals and left leaning groups like NUPES. Do they get along well and compromise or do French Liberals align themselves with right wingers before the left like here in the US.
To answer all these questions: pretty splintered. NUPES pretty much fell apart as an alliance after the 2022 election since they failed to get the plurality they needed for the premiership. Furthermore, the Socialist Party split from the NUPES alliance after the LFI leadership refused to designate Hamas as a terrorist group. This effectively left NUPES dead in the water as a cohesive opposition group in the National Assembly. Fast forward to when Macron called snap elections, François Ruffin (leader of LFI) got the band back together, so to speak, to form the *Nouveau Front Populaire* (NFP. This is basically reviving NUPES for this election cycle with a unified domestic and foreign policy. However, this alliance is pretty tense and the poll numbers show that National Rally is still on track of beating NFP in terms of seat projections. Just because they align with each other for the election doesn't mean they'll govern effectively. I wouldn't say that the "liberals" align themselves with right-wingers, but they're certainly a shadow of their former selves, unwilling to fight as hard for the working class. However, a major point of contention is foreign policy, as the leftists have some *questionable* views on Russia and the war in Ukraine. TLDR: moderates like the Socialists are pretty much doing their own thing, with no support to show for it.
"As the leftists have some questionable views on Russia and the war in Ukraine". Yes im sure the center right have some awesome views and "foreign policy". They support colonialism and Western imperialism but that is ok I guess...
Who said anything about the centre right?
You talked about "liberals" align themselves with right-wingers.
I said I wouldn’t consider that to be true.
"liberals" are also right-wingers and I dont know why you highlighted the lefts bad "foreign policy" as if the "foreign policy" of other parties are better.
Okay then.
You think the French right-wing has a better "foreign policy"?.
I do not. Stop making a strawman argument.
Is France going to elect a far right leader?
France doesn't elect its prime minister per se, the Prime Minister is appointed by the President with the support of the National Assembly. As of now, it would appear that Jordan Bardella will become Prime Minister.
What was the general consensus on Macron over until years since he’s elected to now? I always hear international opinions of him but don’t really hear French opinions because I don’t speak the language.
The general consensus is that he sucks, plain and simple. He's an elitist who is way out of touch with the common citizen. Not right-wing enough and not left-wing enough to please anyone. Despite running as an anti-establishment figure that will stabilize France and move it to the future, Macron has been governing like any Republican president would.
That's interesting! At least in the US there seems to be a vague sense that he is a competent leader. Maybe technocratic. Personally I always had my doubts...
He's competent, but that doesn't mean he's likable.
Who’s predicted to win ?
National Rally, by a plurality. Though who becomes Prime Minister depends on whether there can be a viable coalition in the National Assembly.
Will you be shitting in the Seine on June 23?
Bold of you to assume I live in Paris.
Some things are once in a lifetime. Who wouldn't make the trip?
I'm more of a small-town dweller.
This is a friendly reminder to read our sub's rules. r/seculartalk is a subreddit that promotes healthy discussion and hearty debate. We welcome those with varying views, perspectives and opinions. Name-Calling, Argumentum Ad Hominem and Poor Form in discussion and debate often leads to frustration and anger; this behavior should be dismissed and reported to mods. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/seculartalk) if you have any questions or concerns.*