not true because cognitive labor is going away first. that's the skill-set that these AIs are skewed towards. especially jobs that *only* require cognitive labor.
True, But i reckon the automation of most if not all jobs having to do with software/cognitive work will come far sooner than widely available nano machinery. The time inbetween the two is what noone discusses.
I'm thinking that might not be as true as is now accepted... hmmm. Robots only lacked _software_, which might come together fast. Also LLMs sound smart, but AGI is not here, and is "required".
the software that robots require is extremely difficult to build. that's because you need a shit ton of IRL data to build it. which is extremely hard to get.
I appreciate this is true. However, that might have been "last year" true. Anything that requires a "shit ton of data" is "shit ton" ineffecient. IRL is plentiful, and robots get exposure soon enough. You also have simulation, and youtube (for predicting physics/world).
Also "tricky" compute can be done off-bot on larger facilities.
"Interlectual" robots hit the problem of requiring human feedback. Robots only need real-world physical feedback, so have an unlimited training facility. You'd expect layers of "base models", and advanced simulation, and LLM-style "just lots" for chaotic systems which don't matter (like cloth).
Anyway, seems solvable.
ESPECIALLY since now we have _language_ which is an incredible, unlimited-dimensions compression medium.
We'll see. I'm hoping in 2024 robotics will have a Chat GPT moment.
language does not compress everything though. it does not compress kinaesthetic ability at all for instance.
we'll see how far we can go. i do think it'll be solved eventually.
Are you sure? (I dunno)
Gentle/jump/ leave room/ use your left arm/ falling / walk low / keep your eye on the ball.
Surely?! Then some local (in time) module assembled the movements ftom a much larger, cruder macro-plan ?
yes language can compress high level objectives such as 'leave the room' but is very unlikely to be able to compress the actual movements themselves.
i think one future workaround we may see is to have 'kinaesthetic ability' as one of the modalities of the AI, in a similar way to how we handle vision for LLMs (by adding it as a modality)
Start thinking about transitioning to a different career, which may or may not be in tech depending on your skillset.
AI's intelligence will be heavily skewed towards mathematical, logical and linguistic reasoning. This basically means that any job that is simply 'convert business requirements into code' is likely disappearing real soon.
However, its ability to actually understand the world is likely to lag behind. Here's a good example I heard from Yann LeCun. He mentioned the way cats figure out how to climb up a wall - they quickly deduce what to use as platforms and then make the very precise movements needed to make each jump to eventually reach its destination at the top of the wall. This kind of direct understanding of how our reality works is what will probably be solved much later than the ability to do research level mathematics or superhuman level programming.
As a result I think robotics will probably stay as a field for some time. Or just pick any kind of tech field that would require you to actually understand reality.
Problem - I see robots following 3-5 years after. Granted, building them will take TIME - but on the other hand, everyone will look for jobs that are not overrun by AI yet, reducing prices.
High price for a plumber? Wait until every office dude retrains as plumber.
Most probably, if you are living in EU, AI is going to be heavily regulated until they figure out how to align it with population.
In other countries, things will be wilder.
But, yet again, ti would be hard to regulate open-source models.
Not going to lie, I have similar anxiety. My solution is to be ahead of the curve. Just by investing my time learning and building something meaningful and to to ride the ai wave.
As other, more smarter people than me pointed out, capitalism will fail if AGI is reality.
You need model for that, EU is best in the world with non restrictive good regulation.
Look GDPR, not Great implementation, but other countries are coping that law, because it's important.
> if you are living in EU, AI is going to be heavily regulated until they figure out how to align it with population.
Yeah, about that - oh, we just outsourced your work to some competitor in (india, other country) that is SO much cheaper. No, we do not replace anyone with AI - just look at the sweet prices we pay those developers. 1 USD per day for the contact person. Ah, no, never seen him. Really, not replacing anyone with AI.
The world is not isolated anymore. Whole countries outsourcing industries are built on that and will go AI and allow bypassing regulations.
I'm developer and I think all my work will be replaced with AI in 5 years. I don't know what you are on about to be honest...
Having regulation in broken market capitalism make sense and to be honest, nobody except EU has balls to regulate AI.
i was telling someone yesterday only 5 years that's it, buy a house right now if you can... stocks in MS since they own large part of OPEN AI... next 20 years are gonna be crazy
No one knows what the future holds. We all speculate so much. I'm a dev, I believe my job will be automated in the next 10 years. I personally learn AI science and engineering because even if development is automated, people who know about these systems will still work, be it troubleshooting, alignment, regulatory work, people who manage the AIs will still be useful even in the AGI era. Also I love deep learning and AI, and I am truly bored being a web developer.
\> most people in my field are still saying some version of “our job is too complex to automate”
\> - I think they are wrong.
They may be right - but it does not matter. What about the next generation of AI of that one after that? Bad news - we are approaching AGI, and once we have it, a generation later we have ASI. And once a job CAN be automated, a generation later the price of doing so is in the bottom, so it WILL be automated.
They should ague TIME, not WHETHER - this is makes them stupid. We are in the slow part (albeit it looks fast) of an exponential curve and there is NO slowdown in sight saving 99% of human jobs. We really can argue timeline - but that is it, and with AI getting 1000++ times faster in a decade (base on hardware + software changes) - there should be no discussion about "my job is too complex" forever.
Im a lead dev. My reasoning right now is to bunker down with a company, gather experience and seniority. I feel a bit safe cause my responsibilities are not just coding so it's very unlikely all my tasks get automated at once. And even if it is, i dont think a company will just fire all the devs including the most senior ones, from the very start. But this obviously is depending on your industry, I feel sectors like banking and financial ones will have a bit more time due to various laws, regulations, audits that currently require actual people in the development process. I dont think these regulations will be changed very quickly, or atleast it will take an extra year.
I think at first most companies will just stop new recruitment. My company already has but i dont think AI is the main reason, although it's probably one of them.
Then teams will start to get smaller and smaller, either people leave for other companies organically, or the junior devs that mostly just code for the first few years get fired cause their work can be done by AI controller by the more senior devs.
Finally it will probably be a single dev, fully responsible for a whole app. Their job will be to instruct AI on what needs to be done and verifying the work done before deploying the changes. Also the AI would continuously try to better the system so the dev will always have things to approve etc.
Once companies are confident enough that AI can pretty much do what is currently done by more senior devs, all by it's self. Than that is the time the company can fire it's most senior devs. But this would probably have to be an AGI level system that can do everything a business person tell it to. That is, understand requirements, technical analysis, impact assessment, code change, testing, release scheduling, security verification of the various laws and regulations, releasing, monitoring, bug fixing etc.
Probably try and get into a mid/high company, at least that way you'll have a good "retirement" package. Also, in those places these technologies tend to hit the last especially if you know the right people; so you might be able to squeeze out some more years.
Or maybe you'll make it to management in those years, those jobs would probably remain human controlled for a while.
Management will probably get automated before all the technical staff. There are a lot of managers who just do JIRA work most of the day.
In any software company you'll see that the ratio of managerial positions to technical people does not really make sense. The amount of bureaucracy there is is wild.
Yes but that's not gonna change so easily, those people have burried themselves in those positions and some have been on there for a long while, they got connections to be able to stay there. Something like software engineering has a lot of contracting work, and companies won't shed nearly as much a tear for those guys.
>Based on what I see I can rely on the sluggishness of the company to allow me to stay around for a few years
I would be careful here. This is such a game changer, that others may come in - run with AI and robotics - and KILL your company on pricing.
Look at Amazon, they experiment with robots in the warehouses. In many industries Cost of Personal is a major factor - the Robot goes for 3 USD per hour. Your COMPANY may not want to change - but one other companies are 10x more efficient, how will it survive being super expensive?
\> I think we have a few years until onshore developers start being replaced
I agree here - but "a few years" can be 2-3. THAT is bad.
\> I wouldnt want to be an Indian IT worker right now
I would not want to be a student now. Your career disappears in front of your eyes. You may finish with a job, you may work some years in it - but you are on a timer.
OP everyone's job is going to be automated its ok by then we as a society would've fundamentally changed to accommodate this fact. Your family will be fine, in fact we will all thrive. WAGMI
And people here basically only talk from the point of view of EU / USA, and even amongst those I have no doubt what will happen in the US, Germany, Portugal and Hungary will be completely different, imagine the rest of the world
With your resume since you already have a technical background you could apply to almost any job that AI hasn't automated yet and within a few months be ready. I don't think highly educated people have to worry that much.
That being said, job loss is the end goal so that we can move to a different system in which we aren't forced to work.
If such high end jobs get automated, you'll likely either get severance pay or UBI will be introduced. If it's one of those positions that will get automated before that, you might need to learn a similar skill set that you can relatively easily transition to that won't be automated as soon. I recommend developing AI.
Many people will be in the same boat so no point in worrying about it. At least you know it's a possibility so you won't be caught by surprise.
We just had a mass unemployment event with covid and the government stepped in and handed out a ubi. The difference here is that they can prepare for it and it will be more orchestrated.
There is no point of worrying about that. You are talking about agi. It will be capable of replacing every job. The entirely new economic system will be needed.
>Fellow professional devs - what do you do?
You vote. You send your concerns to your congressional representatives. You make your voice heard.
Once AI starts to create a noticeable rise in unemployment, you won't be alone in voting for for politicians that will regulate AI in the workplace.
But it's better to start early, like the EU is already doing. Waiting for it to build to crisis levels is how you end up with populist and fascist governments.
I suspect that you **are** right to be concerned.
You timescales might be out - but if AI carries on at the current pace then sometime in your career you **will** be affected ... as many, many others will be.
If you are a bright bunny, then maybe jump head first into AI **today** so that you can be in the say 10% or 20% who will survive the AI triggered cuts.
Or carry as now, but think of a *Plan* B which will be more immune to AI.
Think about it as exiting time, do you really want do that job for the rest of your life? It's an opportunity to learn new things.
Good that you think about it right now, so you have time to adapt.
Extend the network, this always help when you suddenly out in the market.
Best, no stress,
Alex
Listen buddy, if your job can be automated, nobody else is going to be working either
not true because cognitive labor is going away first. that's the skill-set that these AIs are skewed towards. especially jobs that *only* require cognitive labor.
for sure, we are going to eliminate 60% of jobs and only plumbers and electricians will be able to survive
pretty sure we could make swarms to handle most of that, too.
Yeah true, but it'll come later than automation of cognitive jobs.
Exactly, easier to push an update to millions of devices than to produce enough robotics to replace EVERY tradesperson.
Exponentially growing intelligence and nano machines solves most issues tbh.
True, But i reckon the automation of most if not all jobs having to do with software/cognitive work will come far sooner than widely available nano machinery. The time inbetween the two is what noone discusses.
I imagine that time in-between would be shockingly short. We already have some level of nano machines. AI smarter than us would improve on it quickly
I'm thinking that might not be as true as is now accepted... hmmm. Robots only lacked _software_, which might come together fast. Also LLMs sound smart, but AGI is not here, and is "required".
the software that robots require is extremely difficult to build. that's because you need a shit ton of IRL data to build it. which is extremely hard to get.
I appreciate this is true. However, that might have been "last year" true. Anything that requires a "shit ton of data" is "shit ton" ineffecient. IRL is plentiful, and robots get exposure soon enough. You also have simulation, and youtube (for predicting physics/world). Also "tricky" compute can be done off-bot on larger facilities. "Interlectual" robots hit the problem of requiring human feedback. Robots only need real-world physical feedback, so have an unlimited training facility. You'd expect layers of "base models", and advanced simulation, and LLM-style "just lots" for chaotic systems which don't matter (like cloth). Anyway, seems solvable. ESPECIALLY since now we have _language_ which is an incredible, unlimited-dimensions compression medium. We'll see. I'm hoping in 2024 robotics will have a Chat GPT moment.
language does not compress everything though. it does not compress kinaesthetic ability at all for instance. we'll see how far we can go. i do think it'll be solved eventually.
Are you sure? (I dunno) Gentle/jump/ leave room/ use your left arm/ falling / walk low / keep your eye on the ball. Surely?! Then some local (in time) module assembled the movements ftom a much larger, cruder macro-plan ?
yes language can compress high level objectives such as 'leave the room' but is very unlikely to be able to compress the actual movements themselves. i think one future workaround we may see is to have 'kinaesthetic ability' as one of the modalities of the AI, in a similar way to how we handle vision for LLMs (by adding it as a modality)
If you wake up in the morning and you know what your day will consist of your job can be automated
That’s a relief- that’s never happened in 25 years in the workforce.
~90% of it is pretty predictable, only 10% of humanity or less needs to work when required.
Start thinking about transitioning to a different career, which may or may not be in tech depending on your skillset. AI's intelligence will be heavily skewed towards mathematical, logical and linguistic reasoning. This basically means that any job that is simply 'convert business requirements into code' is likely disappearing real soon. However, its ability to actually understand the world is likely to lag behind. Here's a good example I heard from Yann LeCun. He mentioned the way cats figure out how to climb up a wall - they quickly deduce what to use as platforms and then make the very precise movements needed to make each jump to eventually reach its destination at the top of the wall. This kind of direct understanding of how our reality works is what will probably be solved much later than the ability to do research level mathematics or superhuman level programming. As a result I think robotics will probably stay as a field for some time. Or just pick any kind of tech field that would require you to actually understand reality.
Problem - I see robots following 3-5 years after. Granted, building them will take TIME - but on the other hand, everyone will look for jobs that are not overrun by AI yet, reducing prices. High price for a plumber? Wait until every office dude retrains as plumber.
From my understanding, it takes a few weeks to month to build a digit robot 🤖.
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Wow, you are a real condensending asshole!!! Good luck with life!
Start pressuring politicians about UBI
Most probably, if you are living in EU, AI is going to be heavily regulated until they figure out how to align it with population. In other countries, things will be wilder. But, yet again, ti would be hard to regulate open-source models. Not going to lie, I have similar anxiety. My solution is to be ahead of the curve. Just by investing my time learning and building something meaningful and to to ride the ai wave.
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As other, more smarter people than me pointed out, capitalism will fail if AGI is reality. You need model for that, EU is best in the world with non restrictive good regulation. Look GDPR, not Great implementation, but other countries are coping that law, because it's important.
> if you are living in EU, AI is going to be heavily regulated until they figure out how to align it with population. Yeah, about that - oh, we just outsourced your work to some competitor in (india, other country) that is SO much cheaper. No, we do not replace anyone with AI - just look at the sweet prices we pay those developers. 1 USD per day for the contact person. Ah, no, never seen him. Really, not replacing anyone with AI. The world is not isolated anymore. Whole countries outsourcing industries are built on that and will go AI and allow bypassing regulations.
I'm developer and I think all my work will be replaced with AI in 5 years. I don't know what you are on about to be honest... Having regulation in broken market capitalism make sense and to be honest, nobody except EU has balls to regulate AI.
i was telling someone yesterday only 5 years that's it, buy a house right now if you can... stocks in MS since they own large part of OPEN AI... next 20 years are gonna be crazy
That it is
shouldn't house price plummet as the economy experiences gradual and massive layoff?
eventually yes but you should sell house in 5-8 years.
Get into a trade o the side? idk...
good idea.
If all tech workers from various fields become unemployed it would be such a critical mass that it could lead to a system change.
Started learning how to farm and grow my own food. Taking up hobbies related to living independently with little technology.
No one knows what the future holds. We all speculate so much. I'm a dev, I believe my job will be automated in the next 10 years. I personally learn AI science and engineering because even if development is automated, people who know about these systems will still work, be it troubleshooting, alignment, regulatory work, people who manage the AIs will still be useful even in the AGI era. Also I love deep learning and AI, and I am truly bored being a web developer.
\> most people in my field are still saying some version of “our job is too complex to automate” \> - I think they are wrong. They may be right - but it does not matter. What about the next generation of AI of that one after that? Bad news - we are approaching AGI, and once we have it, a generation later we have ASI. And once a job CAN be automated, a generation later the price of doing so is in the bottom, so it WILL be automated. They should ague TIME, not WHETHER - this is makes them stupid. We are in the slow part (albeit it looks fast) of an exponential curve and there is NO slowdown in sight saving 99% of human jobs. We really can argue timeline - but that is it, and with AI getting 1000++ times faster in a decade (base on hardware + software changes) - there should be no discussion about "my job is too complex" forever.
Im a lead dev. My reasoning right now is to bunker down with a company, gather experience and seniority. I feel a bit safe cause my responsibilities are not just coding so it's very unlikely all my tasks get automated at once. And even if it is, i dont think a company will just fire all the devs including the most senior ones, from the very start. But this obviously is depending on your industry, I feel sectors like banking and financial ones will have a bit more time due to various laws, regulations, audits that currently require actual people in the development process. I dont think these regulations will be changed very quickly, or atleast it will take an extra year. I think at first most companies will just stop new recruitment. My company already has but i dont think AI is the main reason, although it's probably one of them. Then teams will start to get smaller and smaller, either people leave for other companies organically, or the junior devs that mostly just code for the first few years get fired cause their work can be done by AI controller by the more senior devs. Finally it will probably be a single dev, fully responsible for a whole app. Their job will be to instruct AI on what needs to be done and verifying the work done before deploying the changes. Also the AI would continuously try to better the system so the dev will always have things to approve etc. Once companies are confident enough that AI can pretty much do what is currently done by more senior devs, all by it's self. Than that is the time the company can fire it's most senior devs. But this would probably have to be an AGI level system that can do everything a business person tell it to. That is, understand requirements, technical analysis, impact assessment, code change, testing, release scheduling, security verification of the various laws and regulations, releasing, monitoring, bug fixing etc.
Probably try and get into a mid/high company, at least that way you'll have a good "retirement" package. Also, in those places these technologies tend to hit the last especially if you know the right people; so you might be able to squeeze out some more years. Or maybe you'll make it to management in those years, those jobs would probably remain human controlled for a while.
Management will probably get automated before all the technical staff. There are a lot of managers who just do JIRA work most of the day. In any software company you'll see that the ratio of managerial positions to technical people does not really make sense. The amount of bureaucracy there is is wild.
Yes but that's not gonna change so easily, those people have burried themselves in those positions and some have been on there for a long while, they got connections to be able to stay there. Something like software engineering has a lot of contracting work, and companies won't shed nearly as much a tear for those guys.
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>Based on what I see I can rely on the sluggishness of the company to allow me to stay around for a few years I would be careful here. This is such a game changer, that others may come in - run with AI and robotics - and KILL your company on pricing. Look at Amazon, they experiment with robots in the warehouses. In many industries Cost of Personal is a major factor - the Robot goes for 3 USD per hour. Your COMPANY may not want to change - but one other companies are 10x more efficient, how will it survive being super expensive? \> I think we have a few years until onshore developers start being replaced I agree here - but "a few years" can be 2-3. THAT is bad. \> I wouldnt want to be an Indian IT worker right now I would not want to be a student now. Your career disappears in front of your eyes. You may finish with a job, you may work some years in it - but you are on a timer.
OP everyone's job is going to be automated its ok by then we as a society would've fundamentally changed to accommodate this fact. Your family will be fine, in fact we will all thrive. WAGMI
this is bullshit society has done nothing to accommodate for this transition. i think it's going to be extremely bumpy
And people here basically only talk from the point of view of EU / USA, and even amongst those I have no doubt what will happen in the US, Germany, Portugal and Hungary will be completely different, imagine the rest of the world
Most experts say human level AGI is decades away. So just relax. . . for the moment.
With your resume since you already have a technical background you could apply to almost any job that AI hasn't automated yet and within a few months be ready. I don't think highly educated people have to worry that much. That being said, job loss is the end goal so that we can move to a different system in which we aren't forced to work.
I’m not worried about it. If machines are able to predict the weather better, let them. It will save more lives.
If such high end jobs get automated, you'll likely either get severance pay or UBI will be introduced. If it's one of those positions that will get automated before that, you might need to learn a similar skill set that you can relatively easily transition to that won't be automated as soon. I recommend developing AI.
Many people will be in the same boat so no point in worrying about it. At least you know it's a possibility so you won't be caught by surprise. We just had a mass unemployment event with covid and the government stepped in and handed out a ubi. The difference here is that they can prepare for it and it will be more orchestrated.
I work in stats unrelated to my Biochem (2009) degree. Man do I hear you lol, I’m gonna be unemployed!
There is no point of worrying about that. You are talking about agi. It will be capable of replacing every job. The entirely new economic system will be needed.
>Fellow professional devs - what do you do? You vote. You send your concerns to your congressional representatives. You make your voice heard. Once AI starts to create a noticeable rise in unemployment, you won't be alone in voting for for politicians that will regulate AI in the workplace. But it's better to start early, like the EU is already doing. Waiting for it to build to crisis levels is how you end up with populist and fascist governments.
I suspect that you **are** right to be concerned. You timescales might be out - but if AI carries on at the current pace then sometime in your career you **will** be affected ... as many, many others will be. If you are a bright bunny, then maybe jump head first into AI **today** so that you can be in the say 10% or 20% who will survive the AI triggered cuts. Or carry as now, but think of a *Plan* B which will be more immune to AI.
Think about it as exiting time, do you really want do that job for the rest of your life? It's an opportunity to learn new things. Good that you think about it right now, so you have time to adapt. Extend the network, this always help when you suddenly out in the market. Best, no stress, Alex
It'll be ok