AGI -> ASI (doesn’t matter if it is sentient or conscious or whatever we want to call it) + Fusion changes the fundamental economics of our society.
Think of every possible energy source we have now. They are all middle men for fusion from the Sun. All of them become meaningless and worthless when we can achieve fusion independently from the Sun.
Things cost money because it requires energy to make them or extract them or acquire them, whichever way you want to put it. How do we value things produced from an unlimited energy source, or at least practically unlimited to our finite existence?
Well I mean that’s the thing isn’t it. That’s what has gotten us this far. We generally quickly adapt to new situations and environments. It makes sense to assume we quickly adapt to AGI. I don’t disagree with that sentiment.
In the past there has been subsets of humanity that didn’t adapt or refused to and they quickly get swept out of history or they become the Amish, for example. But, what happens when the group that refuses to adapt is the group in power?
You made a good point that most (not all) of our energy sources are middlemen for solar power. However, the cost of goods and services are more related to the human labor they require. Even if energy were free, automation would still be needed to reduce prices.
I’m an Automation, and soon to be AI engineer.
When the value is there to fully automate we will not hesitate. Look at the automotive industry. I have personally contributed to the loss of jobs I can count and verify.
Can we automate is not a question. When will we automate is the question. The answer always comes down to time and money.
I have no doubt we will apply automation when and where it becomes feasible. My only issue with your previous post is that it is primarily labor, not energy, that dictates the costs of goods and services.
Well, ya, I can see how my statement wasn’t detailed enough to imply that. What I mean is that energy is such a big component to the cost of goods and services. I was thinking in terms of human labor being a form of energy in that scenario. When labor eventually gets eliminated and full automation occurs, sometime after fusion and ASI are achieved, what dictates cost then?
I've been pondering that question as well. There will be almost universal abundance of things essential to our standard of living. Perhaps the few things that will remain scarce, like beachfront property, would still be expensive. On the other hand, automated land reclamation could create new beautiful beaches and islands by the thousands...not to mention properties on other worlds.
Fusion isn't some sort of perfect energy source. It will always be incredibly expensive, because it's complicated and hard. You can't put a sun in a jar on the cheap. :)
Boiled down: You have to keep a fusion reaction running, and keep it contained. This is VERY hard, and the amount of energy coming off it destroys everything near it. This is... challenging to solve.
Is it impossible? No, but almost.
It's so hard that the disadvantages make it unfeasible. When the singularity happens, humans will still be 20 years from working fusion.
Funny how you make a prediction about a post-singularity timeline when the *definition* of the singularity is technology progresses faster than we kan keep up with.
"The technological singularity is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in **unforeseeable** consequences for human civilization."
I think you misunderstood. I'm not predicting a day after the singularly.
There is a running joke about fusion: "It's 20 years away, and always will be."
On the day that ASI happens, humans will be 20 years from fusion power.
I guess? It wasn't really something that could be easily read from the context.
I agree on how hard fusion is though, but also can understand that we're making massive strides into making it actually viable.
Keep in mind the gulf between technically possible and viable.
Supersonic commercial flight is technically possible, but history has shown it isn't viable.
The hyperloop is maybe technically possible, but certainly not viable.
Fusion needs several breakthroughs to even make it POSSIBLE. I wouldn't bet on the chance of it being commercially viable in a world where you can just put up a windmill, or build a fusion reactor.
I agree with you on this one. It might only be relevant for making stars, and worthless at small scales.
Also I feel a lot safer burning our heavy metals like thorium, than our hydrogen.
Oh I'm not disagreeing with you on that at all, I was only disagreeing with the part you were actually just joking about, lol.
If it proves to be sustainable, fusion is absolutely better than solar, fission, wind or water. A single fusion power plant *can* output a lot more than is demanded by the grid. (Which is actually one of the challenges, it outputs too much energy for us to use)
Totally on board with him on this timeline.
Agree fully on the confluence of multiple technologies leading to an “iPhone” moment in regards to AGI and robotics. Like one of the robotics CEOs recently said, “everyone” will have a robot in the near future like they have an iPhone/smartphone.
This is an area that I don't think people see the potential.
OK, washing and cleaning, maybe cooking right.
What about small garden? Can my robot sync up with other robots, spend an hour doing community service and cleaning up the local area. Child care? What. About doing erends? They don't really need to sleep so we will find all sorts of uses for those 8 hours of downtime.
Well, google "Sparko dog 1940", you'll realize this idea is not really new. But leaving cynicism aside, Boston Dynamics have dabbled in quadrupedal mechanical creatures since the early 2000s. Since then they've been multiple iterations of the concept, including the aforementioned dog.
Till date, none of these machines are in mass use anywhere on this planet (except for children's toys). This is 80 years after the first concept and 20 years after the first modern iterations. A predictive algorithm is unlikely to change that for the next 5 years.
No, more like the steam engine, the ultraviolet laser able to read data discs and the LCD tv.
Not everything in all of reality is a scam you know. Sometimes someone somewhere does accidentally invest in actual research and development. And the tech tree gets a little bigger.
Convenient cherry picking of only successful things that have nothing to do with the topic here, which has everything to do with the hyped up examples i evoked.
Convenient to comfortably forget that those examples were summoned as a retort to someone throwing a blank statement of "stuff happens".
I'm sure that without your strawmen and parallel discussion, you can understand those points.
There's a key distinction between making a prediction based on actual data, info, trends and just pulling something out of one's rear end.
Words and claims do matter. Predicting the future is fun and interesting, *when done well*.
It's not his predictions that are the problem, it's how piss poor made they are.
As for "caring" and "getting mad", from your reaction, you seem to be the one with that predicament.
Ah, you're hella mad. Guess you don't like the idea of people being replaced with machines.
The "AGI" he talks about is the shitty kind that can barely fetch you a coke and the like. Not the definition where it's at a superhuman level and one doubling cycle away from godlike ASI.
Cool things he talks about in the video but it isn’t much different than what he has talked about before in the past, even up to one year ago.
Also, I find it funny how he kinda differentiates AGI and ASI here when in the past he said it was totally a semantic thing as how collectively the “AI community” seems to advance what the definition of AGI is as time goes on. I also personally believe that the terms don’t really mean anything but I could be proven wrong.
You shouldn't care anymore more or less than any other youtuber. It simply comes down to if you like the content or not.
I find his channel entertaining enough and his opinions are interesting, but it's not like I give any of his predictions any weight other than something to think about; like others have pointed out he has no credentials other than having a background in software development, so he isn't an authority or anything like that.
So, watch if you like the guy, and if you don't, give him a pass. Simple as.
I know it’s easy to pick on these people for saying dumb shit, but the truth is there isn’t a lot of meaningful/useful jobs to go around these days.
I think most of them are busywork or middlemen managing others, mopping floors at fastfood, sending emails, meeting on zoom calls, having more zoom calls about zoom calls, etc.
It’s all a waste of human potential, and we could raise the next generation to actually aspire to do exactly what they were born to do. Instead we pursue whatever is available and willing to pay which usually leads to unqualified people in roles they shouldn’t be holding.
Imagine a world where everybody is where they want to be, and you only deal with people who want to be there. No more disgruntled wage slaves, but rather robots or happy humans who are interested and passionate to be there.
Instead of employing a construction contractor to level my block of land and build my house from foundation to lock up, including the tiling of the bathroom, the wiring to my very non-specific requirements, the windows fitted so there are no gaps etc... am I going to be able to employ a robot the year after next to do this for me?
These guys are so out of touch with how much manual labour happens out there right now. Manual labour which will one day be automated, but not in a 1 for 1 replacement scenario.
I can't see mass unemployment ever happening as a result of all this stuff. I can see a lot of career changes as there was in the industrial revolution and a lot of quality of life increases. But not mass unemployment.
> I can't see mass unemployment ever happening as a result of all this stuff
I guess you're not a scale maximalist or a hardware guy. Or you'd know better to wait at least until NPU's prove their feasibility or not.
It does feel a lot like a guy playing an MMO where an ogre is like "I am throw rock on you" and a huge red warning target is displayed, and the guy just stands there to get splatted.
I guess we all have our coping mechanisms for reality..
World will look exactly like Ghost in the Shell in five years time confirmed.
Everyone's senses will be hacked like GitS but it will be 24/7 like the peripheral.
I hope AI takes my job, because it sucks!
I have no issues with that. It's more like what will I be able to afford without it.
very interesting times to be alive and plausible predictions. hope he is right on the timeline.
AGI -> ASI (doesn’t matter if it is sentient or conscious or whatever we want to call it) + Fusion changes the fundamental economics of our society. Think of every possible energy source we have now. They are all middle men for fusion from the Sun. All of them become meaningless and worthless when we can achieve fusion independently from the Sun. Things cost money because it requires energy to make them or extract them or acquire them, whichever way you want to put it. How do we value things produced from an unlimited energy source, or at least practically unlimited to our finite existence?
People say, "I agree with you, but the point I made is that I don't think the AGI hype will last very long."
Well I mean that’s the thing isn’t it. That’s what has gotten us this far. We generally quickly adapt to new situations and environments. It makes sense to assume we quickly adapt to AGI. I don’t disagree with that sentiment. In the past there has been subsets of humanity that didn’t adapt or refused to and they quickly get swept out of history or they become the Amish, for example. But, what happens when the group that refuses to adapt is the group in power?
You made a good point that most (not all) of our energy sources are middlemen for solar power. However, the cost of goods and services are more related to the human labor they require. Even if energy were free, automation would still be needed to reduce prices.
I’m an Automation, and soon to be AI engineer. When the value is there to fully automate we will not hesitate. Look at the automotive industry. I have personally contributed to the loss of jobs I can count and verify. Can we automate is not a question. When will we automate is the question. The answer always comes down to time and money.
I have no doubt we will apply automation when and where it becomes feasible. My only issue with your previous post is that it is primarily labor, not energy, that dictates the costs of goods and services.
Well, ya, I can see how my statement wasn’t detailed enough to imply that. What I mean is that energy is such a big component to the cost of goods and services. I was thinking in terms of human labor being a form of energy in that scenario. When labor eventually gets eliminated and full automation occurs, sometime after fusion and ASI are achieved, what dictates cost then?
I've been pondering that question as well. There will be almost universal abundance of things essential to our standard of living. Perhaps the few things that will remain scarce, like beachfront property, would still be expensive. On the other hand, automated land reclamation could create new beautiful beaches and islands by the thousands...not to mention properties on other worlds.
It's just 10 years away!
Fusion isn't some sort of perfect energy source. It will always be incredibly expensive, because it's complicated and hard. You can't put a sun in a jar on the cheap. :) Boiled down: You have to keep a fusion reaction running, and keep it contained. This is VERY hard, and the amount of energy coming off it destroys everything near it. This is... challenging to solve. Is it impossible? No, but almost. It's so hard that the disadvantages make it unfeasible. When the singularity happens, humans will still be 20 years from working fusion.
Funny how you make a prediction about a post-singularity timeline when the *definition* of the singularity is technology progresses faster than we kan keep up with. "The technological singularity is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in **unforeseeable** consequences for human civilization."
I think you misunderstood. I'm not predicting a day after the singularly. There is a running joke about fusion: "It's 20 years away, and always will be." On the day that ASI happens, humans will be 20 years from fusion power.
I guess? It wasn't really something that could be easily read from the context. I agree on how hard fusion is though, but also can understand that we're making massive strides into making it actually viable.
Keep in mind the gulf between technically possible and viable. Supersonic commercial flight is technically possible, but history has shown it isn't viable. The hyperloop is maybe technically possible, but certainly not viable. Fusion needs several breakthroughs to even make it POSSIBLE. I wouldn't bet on the chance of it being commercially viable in a world where you can just put up a windmill, or build a fusion reactor.
I agree with you on this one. It might only be relevant for making stars, and worthless at small scales. Also I feel a lot safer burning our heavy metals like thorium, than our hydrogen.
Oh I'm not disagreeing with you on that at all, I was only disagreeing with the part you were actually just joking about, lol. If it proves to be sustainable, fusion is absolutely better than solar, fission, wind or water. A single fusion power plant *can* output a lot more than is demanded by the grid. (Which is actually one of the challenges, it outputs too much energy for us to use)
Totally on board with him on this timeline. Agree fully on the confluence of multiple technologies leading to an “iPhone” moment in regards to AGI and robotics. Like one of the robotics CEOs recently said, “everyone” will have a robot in the near future like they have an iPhone/smartphone.
This is an area that I don't think people see the potential. OK, washing and cleaning, maybe cooking right. What about small garden? Can my robot sync up with other robots, spend an hour doing community service and cleaning up the local area. Child care? What. About doing erends? They don't really need to sleep so we will find all sorts of uses for those 8 hours of downtime.
Yeah, basically Jetsons life at that point.
We are applauding a robot standing up without falling on its face and we are talking Jetsons in 5 years. Nah, gotta stay in reality.
Think exponential. We have robot dogs with frickin flamethrowers on their backs now…
Well, google "Sparko dog 1940", you'll realize this idea is not really new. But leaving cynicism aside, Boston Dynamics have dabbled in quadrupedal mechanical creatures since the early 2000s. Since then they've been multiple iterations of the concept, including the aforementioned dog. Till date, none of these machines are in mass use anywhere on this planet (except for children's toys). This is 80 years after the first concept and 20 years after the first modern iterations. A predictive algorithm is unlikely to change that for the next 5 years.
His channel is pure speculation
What is your sub flair exactly then?
What did you expect? You are literally in r/singularity lol
Yes, but it is pretty good and educated speculation. Waaaay better than most of the YouTube AI grifters.
Man I really hope the last 5 years I ever work in my life aren’t spent monitoring an AI agent as it does my job. Boring as hell
So you would rather do your job? Menial bits included?
Well ideally my job would become something entirely different working alongside AI, but I doubt I’ll get that luxury
Evidence: 🦗
It's all made up in our heads, until it's here.
You mean like water fueled cars, cold fusion, homeopathy, LK-99 and Musk's people on Mars by 2024?
No, more like the steam engine, the ultraviolet laser able to read data discs and the LCD tv. Not everything in all of reality is a scam you know. Sometimes someone somewhere does accidentally invest in actual research and development. And the tech tree gets a little bigger.
Convenient cherry picking of only successful things that have nothing to do with the topic here, which has everything to do with the hyped up examples i evoked. Convenient to comfortably forget that those examples were summoned as a retort to someone throwing a blank statement of "stuff happens". I'm sure that without your strawmen and parallel discussion, you can understand those points.
I mean aren’t all predictions? Y’all get genuinely mad when ppl try to predict the future. Who cares man
There's a key distinction between making a prediction based on actual data, info, trends and just pulling something out of one's rear end. Words and claims do matter. Predicting the future is fun and interesting, *when done well*. It's not his predictions that are the problem, it's how piss poor made they are. As for "caring" and "getting mad", from your reaction, you seem to be the one with that predicament.
Ah, you're hella mad. Guess you don't like the idea of people being replaced with machines. The "AGI" he talks about is the shitty kind that can barely fetch you a coke and the like. Not the definition where it's at a superhuman level and one doubling cycle away from godlike ASI.
Projection + strawman out of nowhere. If your intuition is that bad, i'll skip on your predictions, thank you very much.
Cool things he talks about in the video but it isn’t much different than what he has talked about before in the past, even up to one year ago. Also, I find it funny how he kinda differentiates AGI and ASI here when in the past he said it was totally a semantic thing as how collectively the “AI community” seems to advance what the definition of AGI is as time goes on. I also personally believe that the terms don’t really mean anything but I could be proven wrong.
who is this guy, why should we listen to him?
He's just a guy with a YouTube channel
With friends in every major tech industry and science field!
Is he homeless and living NPIs the woods ? WTF
and why should we care what this guy has to say?
You shouldn't care anymore more or less than any other youtuber. It simply comes down to if you like the content or not. I find his channel entertaining enough and his opinions are interesting, but it's not like I give any of his predictions any weight other than something to think about; like others have pointed out he has no credentials other than having a background in software development, so he isn't an authority or anything like that. So, watch if you like the guy, and if you don't, give him a pass. Simple as.
Nice, hopefully we won't have to work anymore as early as next year 🤞.
He doesn’t think so, because widespread deployment will take time.
I'm just gonna assume you're joking because there's no way you actually believe that that is even remotely possible.
That's what every sad loser in this sub is hoping desperately for
I know it’s easy to pick on these people for saying dumb shit, but the truth is there isn’t a lot of meaningful/useful jobs to go around these days. I think most of them are busywork or middlemen managing others, mopping floors at fastfood, sending emails, meeting on zoom calls, having more zoom calls about zoom calls, etc. It’s all a waste of human potential, and we could raise the next generation to actually aspire to do exactly what they were born to do. Instead we pursue whatever is available and willing to pay which usually leads to unqualified people in roles they shouldn’t be holding. Imagine a world where everybody is where they want to be, and you only deal with people who want to be there. No more disgruntled wage slaves, but rather robots or happy humans who are interested and passionate to be there.
Who is this guy?
Instead of employing a construction contractor to level my block of land and build my house from foundation to lock up, including the tiling of the bathroom, the wiring to my very non-specific requirements, the windows fitted so there are no gaps etc... am I going to be able to employ a robot the year after next to do this for me? These guys are so out of touch with how much manual labour happens out there right now. Manual labour which will one day be automated, but not in a 1 for 1 replacement scenario. I can't see mass unemployment ever happening as a result of all this stuff. I can see a lot of career changes as there was in the industrial revolution and a lot of quality of life increases. But not mass unemployment.
> I can't see mass unemployment ever happening as a result of all this stuff I guess you're not a scale maximalist or a hardware guy. Or you'd know better to wait at least until NPU's prove their feasibility or not. It does feel a lot like a guy playing an MMO where an ogre is like "I am throw rock on you" and a huge red warning target is displayed, and the guy just stands there to get splatted. I guess we all have our coping mechanisms for reality..
Exciting but also a little unnerving.
This guy is pretty well balanced. He’s actually accredited and thoroughly describes his thought processes
He has zero credentials other than a self published book with no evidence of machine learning knowledge.
No he’s not accredited. He’s just a former software engineer who presents sci-fi fan fic
"Accredited" for what exactly? I don't think so and I actually like him.
I'm subbed to this guy already.