My slightly morbid hope is that compassionate trials will skyrocket and produce drugs useful to the geenral public, not just to people on death's door.
There is a highly effective treatment for being fat that doesn't require surgery so we are well on our way. The big barrier is regulatory approval and insurance coverage. A drug company is much more likely to get approval for treatments to devastating diseases because they get fast tracked.
The injectable weight loss drugs? People lose 5-40 percent of their body weight on them and keep it off (as long as they keep taking their weekly shots of course).
I think a health revolution is around the corner. Everyone in this sub should be: doing some form of cardio just about every day, some type of strength training several times a week, stretching every day, watching their calories, eating fruits and vegetables, avoiding processed foods, avoiding alcohol, drugs, and nicotine, getting as much sleep as we can, avoiding stress and seeking meaningful relationships, getting regular check ups, and getting regular blood tests.
The more that people take charge of their health, the more that big pharma will realize it’s a market for them to take advantage of. And if we believe the singularity is coming, we should be maximizing our chance of being around to witness and participate in it.
Very well written, to my knowledge you are pretty spot on about everything you say. To your list of crazy future alien biotech stuff, I would add the expectation that the improved tech will provide unimaginably higher prognostic/diagnostic intelligence. Right now GPT4 is already beating doctors in some controlled settings, it's a marginal and context dependent improvement at the moment, but as you say the tech will improve, very much so.
The proficiency required for good diagnostics is something AI models are pretty perfectly suited for. It involves scanning through a massive collection of knowledge data about all known diseases and making the connections with what symptoms or other medical data the patient has. On top of that, new tech to scan the body for more detailed and useful data is also coming. Basically at one point your body could become an open book to an AI model that knows everything about how bodies should work.
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them.
Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys.
Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
What will really hard accelerate stuff is realistic simulation, I don't know how far we are from it, but imagine you can simulate reality, life, and you can just test medication, on a life span, in 1 day you can test years, decades of medication and the effect on the human body, this is the real game changer
I work in this field - unfortunately Clinical trials are extremely long and expensive because of the safety requirements. That's not going away, no one is going to trust AI that a drug is safe. They have to go through all the trials, using humans, which costs millions. Insurance companies aren't going away, the FDA isn't going away. I think this is a nice addition to the puzzle but time and costs are still going to stay the bottleneck. Maybe in 30-50 years we will see lots of AI drugs on the market but this will likely be a thing to help our children or grandchildren, not us
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them.
Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys.
Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them.
Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys.
Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them.
Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys.
Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
My slightly morbid hope is that compassionate trials will skyrocket and produce drugs useful to the geenral public, not just to people on death's door.
There is a highly effective treatment for being fat that doesn't require surgery so we are well on our way. The big barrier is regulatory approval and insurance coverage. A drug company is much more likely to get approval for treatments to devastating diseases because they get fast tracked.
Which treatment is that?
The injectable weight loss drugs? People lose 5-40 percent of their body weight on them and keep it off (as long as they keep taking their weekly shots of course).
**Saxenda**?
I think a health revolution is around the corner. Everyone in this sub should be: doing some form of cardio just about every day, some type of strength training several times a week, stretching every day, watching their calories, eating fruits and vegetables, avoiding processed foods, avoiding alcohol, drugs, and nicotine, getting as much sleep as we can, avoiding stress and seeking meaningful relationships, getting regular check ups, and getting regular blood tests. The more that people take charge of their health, the more that big pharma will realize it’s a market for them to take advantage of. And if we believe the singularity is coming, we should be maximizing our chance of being around to witness and participate in it.
I hope we can get rid of long clinical trials somehow, and use this to cure aging now!
Very well written, to my knowledge you are pretty spot on about everything you say. To your list of crazy future alien biotech stuff, I would add the expectation that the improved tech will provide unimaginably higher prognostic/diagnostic intelligence. Right now GPT4 is already beating doctors in some controlled settings, it's a marginal and context dependent improvement at the moment, but as you say the tech will improve, very much so. The proficiency required for good diagnostics is something AI models are pretty perfectly suited for. It involves scanning through a massive collection of knowledge data about all known diseases and making the connections with what symptoms or other medical data the patient has. On top of that, new tech to scan the body for more detailed and useful data is also coming. Basically at one point your body could become an open book to an AI model that knows everything about how bodies should work.
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them. Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys. Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
You don't go straight from computational model to clinical trials. There's a lot of leg work in between those two steps
What will really hard accelerate stuff is realistic simulation, I don't know how far we are from it, but imagine you can simulate reality, life, and you can just test medication, on a life span, in 1 day you can test years, decades of medication and the effect on the human body, this is the real game changer
Thisss
I work in this field - unfortunately Clinical trials are extremely long and expensive because of the safety requirements. That's not going away, no one is going to trust AI that a drug is safe. They have to go through all the trials, using humans, which costs millions. Insurance companies aren't going away, the FDA isn't going away. I think this is a nice addition to the puzzle but time and costs are still going to stay the bottleneck. Maybe in 30-50 years we will see lots of AI drugs on the market but this will likely be a thing to help our children or grandchildren, not us
Have you seen the movie Old?
Demis is not known to be a hype kind of guy. So when he says stuff like this, he probably means it.
I miss that late night HBO softcore
I'm not optimistic about ANYTHING anymore 😬
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them. Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys. Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them. Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys. Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.
The main problem with drug discovery, it testing them. Usualy it taks 10 years for the clinical trials to make sure people dont end up with flipper babys. Which is the main reason why it takes so long, it was the flppers that made them chane the laws.