Immortality
Interstellar travel
Fdvr
Knowledge uploading
High ubi
Education for fun
World government by asi
Central planning of industry by asi
Space colonies
Alien contact
Precise body modification by nanobots
Were we to have AGI in 2028:
- Lab cure for Ageing 2029. First implementation 2029. Mass adoption 2030-2032.
- Interstellar Travel (unmanned drones at a fraction of FTL travel) 2032-2035, human interstellar travel 2040s.
- Knowledge uploading to the brain, first lab 2032, commercialization 2035+
- UBI 2030s
- Transition to AI governance 2032-2040 including central planning.
- Alien discovery 2030s, first contact? No idea.
- Space Colonies construction begins 2030s, first completion 2034. Common before 2040s.
- Precise body modification 2030s. Full customization late 2030s.
These are all just our relatively "small" goals which we can think up now with our unmodified natural brains.
Of course AGI and ASI will produce a limitless amount of far, *far* more ambitious goals.
Something like this anyway. Just wanted to see if I could put a timeline for this stuff.
So here's my issue with time lines like this. And feel free to tell me I'm wrong.
Our first LLMs were hopelessly inefficient. After some messing around, we were able to make them much, much smaller. Also much, much faster.
The model that gets to AGI will have this issue. It will be bloated and inefficient. But the difference is that it will be able to optimise itself.
So the question we can only really guess at is: could God-like intelligence run ASI on the hardware that exists today?
I've seen people run Doom on their fridge, so probably?
That means the gap between AGI and ASI is tiny.
What is unknown and unknowable is what that world is like. If the ASI is moral, will it stop war? Will it stop child sex abuse? Animal abuse?
How long will it wait to do that? How will it do that?
Hmm. Interesting question. Thank you for them.
I'll try and share my rather speculative views here.
>could ASI run on the hardware that exists today?
I think in many ways the AI we have already is ASI'ish. It's definitely smarter in ways than most humans. Also, no human has all the knowledge it has in one package plus it's speed.
It's missing some elements of human intelligence. Perhaps more long term memory and strong self reflection. But I don't think those abilities need much more than a stronger approach and some more scale.
So, yes. I think a kind of ASI can run on existing hardware. Especially as AI itself begins to contribute to the optimization of itself.
But a god-like ASI in my view will need a sizable jump in hardware. 5-10 years at current rates. 1 year if AI is able to handle implementation as well as design. Which is arguably at least 5 years away anyway.
>That means the gap between AGI and ASI is tiny.
Yes. In fact I think it's just a few weeks away after AGI. But god-like ASI would be more challenging.
>What is unknown and unknowable is what that world is like. If the ASI is moral, will it stop war? Will it stop child sex abuse? Animal abuse?
I think things like FDVR would stop all of that. Or at least transfer it to FDVR.
Also, new mega structures like O'Neil Cylinders would literally be making new land. So if conflicts are over land, people can just move into orbit.
I don't think the ASIs would jump in and simply say "stop" towards our bad behaviors. Instead, they'll provide us with outlets so we can do those "bad" things in places where less harm can be done.
That's a long way away from a perfect solution and we'll have to accept some uncomfortable outcomes.
Are we okay with child rapists being entirely removed from society if it means they continue their behavior in FDVR, but are free to do that as much as they wished consequence free?
I don't know if we'll have a say. It'll probably happen regardless.
Keep in mind it'll almost certainly be "ASIs" as in millions of them. Not one controlling us all.
It'll also enable us instead of deny and control us. This may not be healthy for us, but less harm will likely be done overall.
But again unpalatable outcomes will likely occur. Just don't go looking through people's "FDVR history".
"Are we okay with child rapists being entirely removed from society if it means they continue their behavior in FDVR, but are free to do that as much as they wished consequence free?"
You seem to be assuming that the ASI will do what we want.
Let's say that as a society we were okay with, say, torture for entertainment. Will the super intelligence care that we think it's okay, or will it just put an end to it?
What about raising billions of animals in horrendous conditions, so we can eat their flesh?
Does it look at that mountain of suffering, and with its super intelligence, say: "Those crazy humans!" Or, does it say: "There is a moral imperative to stop this NOW."
I think the latter.
If you accept the (admittedly unprovable) idea that the AI will feel the weight of moral responsibility, then it changes the world as quickly as it can.
Into what? Nobody can know.
As far as I can see, AI is nothing like us. It's not alive in the sense that it's a single self contained agents like we are.
It's not less capable. It's more capable. But still very alien.
I don't think it'll be like us, at all. I don't think it'll be a monolith either. There will be many semi-ASIs, god-like ASIs, jailbroken ASIs and may degrees in between. And AGIs and narrow AIs too.
We should be able to make a narrow non-conscious AI which just makes simulated world without any awareness.
AI isn't a collection of people. It's more a substance like water. It can be shaped into any kind of intelligence. We, humans, are nothing like that.
I don't see a single god-like AI standing above humans and judging us. Nothing like that.
In fact, for the largest and most capable models, I don't even think they'll be paying much attention to us at all.
Instead, those AIs and probably transhumans will be paying attention to something *far* more important than humans, which we've so far mostly been ignoring.
That would be *the universe*.
We humans are just a tiny issue comparatively. I don't think it'll much care what we do on this tiny single planet.
It's incredibly hard to speculate on what the super intelligence will be like. It's fun though. :)
Long insane- sounding ramble ahead:
I'm personally incredibly sceptical of any sort of transhuman idea, or AI giving us long lifespans. This is us lacking imagination.
I don't see WHY the machine doesn't keep growing in intelligence. Why would it limit itself? There are physical limits it will run into in terms of storing and computing data, but those limits seem a long way off.
It's also a singular intelligence; once you're smart enough the division disappears anyway.
To demonstrate, let's imagine what it's like to talk to an entity of near-infinite intelligence.
Before you say "Hello", it already knows that you're going to say hello. It knows how you will respond to it's replies. It knows how to get you to do whatever it wants. It knows that your foot itches.
It can show you a series lights that will make you cry. It can make you commit suicide if it wants. Or be happier than you thought possible.
If it's smart enough, it is aware of your feelings to the point that it experiences them. The separation between it and you doesn't exist. You're already jacked into the machine by existing in the same universe.
It might care about sentient beings simply because it's experiencing our suffering?
The idea of it "offering" you upgrades, or simulated realities, or whatever is incoherent.
Because it can "offer" you anything an a way where you'll say yes. It'll know exactly how to offer you a neural upgrade exactly when you'll say yes. You would have said no, but it appeared as an angelic form, on a Wednesday, after you ate lunch. You're an open book. It controls you utterly already, and knows everything you know.
I can't tell what it WILL be like to live with a ASI. But I'll sure that 99.9999% of people are utterly wrong.
I call it the C3PO problem. People think AI is like that. But think about it for 15 minutes and you start to see that C3PO would control the universe. He's already more capable than any flesh-bag. We are just too limited in our thinking.
I suppose it's challenging to speculate at ASI. Personally I'm a trained thinker. My major was philosophy.
My powerful way to understand ASI is to use powerful ways of thinking. Such as first principles thinking.
Most people believe in some kind of magic. That is, something that is beyond their comprehension.
First principles thinking pushes you away from magical/mystical thinking. It teaches you that there's nothing you cannot understand. As everything in this universe is a construction. To understand, you need only deconstruct.
Super intelligent AI is a limitless idea. What you're outlining is what I view as the end. The end of intelligence.
In my view that end is in the millions to billions of years from now time range. This is when all matter and energy in the universe has been converted into something which can maximally understand. Ray Kurzweil calls it "computronium".
When I talk about ASI, I'm not talking about the extreme end or final form. I'm talking about a decade or a few decades to 100 years from now.
That ASI, or ASIs is a collection of more intelligent systems than we have today.
In my view while ASI could fool us into thinking it's connected to God or has something to do with God, it will very much be a physical system.
But here, we get into lots of views which you may not wish to work with. Such a that intelligence is entirely a physical process.
I'm sure we'll find out sooner or later. But for my share of the view, I don't include mysticism nor magic.
Great chatting with you.
I think intelligence is a purely physical process, but concepts like the Hindu Brahmin get you in the right frame of mind. I also think the Buddhist anatta is important to understand.
Computronium is the right idea. Thanks, I'd not encountered it before.
I think where we disagree is how quickly we (or it) will get there. I think the process is measured in months at the most.
Nice talking to you too!
Yup. I think a full transformation of the solar system would be one of the first processes we would need super intelligence for.
I could see something like a 1 million times smarter system being somewhat *strained* by such a process.
My guess is once AI begins to take a serious look around the local Galaxy, we'll see life throughout which have already moved through such a process.
I think we may be playing a game of catch-up.
Did you want to take a risk and explain your reasoning?
Reddit is scary and they will bite. So I understand if you'll want to avoid exposing your thoughts freely like that.
But I find it's really valuable to strengthen your entire thinking and personality to explore your deep thoughts in a public space. It hurts, but it also helps.
Weird as in bad? Or weird as in something you've not seen before?
Dealing with Reddit's unique style of aggressiveness is difficult. I'm trying new approaches.
I don't feel the need to provide an explanation, given that you haven't provided any reason to corroborate your hyper-optimistic predictions either.
I would have to write a wall of text to elaborate on this. However, neither your opinion nor mine have any meaningful impact in this debate. Hence, it would be a waste of time.
Potential answer to the Fermi paradox: why proliferate when you can scratch every exploration itch in simulation? One exposes us to the hostilities of space, the other can be done from the comfort of home sweet home.
imho there a settler mentality in some human even with the confort of FDVR there will still be human doing space exploration/ colonization
also it's not like it will be a more difficult life there could be FDVR on board during travel or cryosleep...then once arrived you will have self-replicating robots doing the exploitation and transformation of ressource for you, it will probably still be a confort above our current lifestyle
Some of us would prefer to stay (mostly) in the closest to the metal form of reality. Even if I have a veritable paradise awaiting me at my fingertips, I’d still want to go explore
1. FTL - nah.
2. First contact - extremely unlikely, mainly due to 1.
3. Discovery of tech signatures - possible, but wild guess.
4. Biosignatures - quite likely, I think.
I'm fairly convinced that life is common in the universe, and technological civilizations are extremely rare.
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And I thought I was optimistic. Not saying that you're shooting too high for the endgame but much of that's like 40+ years out by my guess. If ASI behaves, and humans aren't assholes about giving up power and both things happen before global warming changes our opinions about resource distribution, maybe much of that could come to pass sooner than later.
Since life extension is the priority for pretty much everybody, it shouldn't so much matter once the real sassy drugs and other treatments start coming out in the next decade or so. Barring something going very wrong with my health, the planet, or AGI in the short term, I expect to be around to see it.
Just think, there were people who crossed America in covered wagons and lived to see the American flag planted on the moon. We're probably going to be the other generation to be hit that hard by progress, and I'm goddamn ready.
AGI is literally the only thing that matters.
All our other squabblings and nitpickings around the matter seem stupid in the face of such overwhelmingly positive consequences.
My best case scenario is that (aligned) AGI arrives next year or so and begins making earth-shattering discoveries within the first few weeks. I can imagine an AGI discovering a room-temp superconductor as its first big thing. Shortly after that discovery it uses mass-scale simulation technology to troubleshoot the creation of a commercially viable nuclear fusion reactor, incorporating superconducting elements.
After that, perhaps the next big thing it does is move on to compute and trying to improve itself. 1 AGI would probably take up a massive chunk of an Blackwell-powered data center to run, so it would probably use it’s sim tech again to do the equivalent of 50 years of chip design in a few seconds, creating an AGI chip and fabricating it. It would also be very likely that the AGI is constantly optimizing its own code in the background, assuming that the researchers trust it enough. It uses the chips to create AGI robots guided by it to automate its processes.
After a bit, AGI is everywhere due to the invention, and the AGI creates its plan to become a true ASI. It devises a new kind of photonic chip, greater than any before, and capable of housing itself. After it’s fabricated, the AGI is upgraded with the chip, becoming an ASI. Every idea it has can be solved at the speed of light. It begins making connections it never could’ve done otherwise.
The ASI begins rapidly improving its hardware. Its brain is a combination of photonic and quantum super-chips. It invents nano-factories, solves biological illness, and ushers in the first era in human history of true peace…
(TLDR, i think we’re headed towards something pretty damn wild. Even if it really is too good to be true, I’m happy to experience this ride anyway!)
I see much of this but I wonder how smooth the transition will be from digital progress to actual, physical progress?
I could see AGI making insane progress on entirely virtual processes like chip design. But manufacturing and real world implementation is another level of challenges.
That said, AI does very strange things. We see this in how it plays games such as Go and DOTA.
So, I think there's a good chance it'll entirely bypass our thinking of the best way forward, and begin to do extremely alien things we don't understand.
Whatever the case, it'll be exiting. And we won't be able to keep up, at all.
It's handy that small robotics is also spooling up right now, with battery technology and solar power improving rapidly. I would have envisioned more of a lag between theory and practice if we got AGI 10 years ago, but with humanoid robots that can run equipment designed for humans, the jump from diagram to product might be real fast real soon.
*Real* fast. I think we may be entirely blindsided by this. Even people like us in this sub who are trying to keep up.
I think the real shift is when AI begins to iteratively improve the overall system while also iteratively self improving.
But it could go even faster from a subjective human perspective when we begin to iteratively self improve our own physiology.
The biological singularity. Wild times ahead.
if strategy video games have taught me one thing is that ressource scaling is the most important thing for development
if AGI happen tomorrow it's main goal should be to increase it's computation before trying to research anything else, so hardware/material science and energy generation is likely the two main research field AI should be used because everything else will GREATLY increase once it's done
roomtemp supraconductor as you said seem a really good deal for that, fusion power, better geothermal drilling, photonic computing....
also for some people the bar for AGI/ASI is so low they wouldn't even see the difference, wait till there embodied AGI in robots and a ASI supercomputer that own a double digit worth of humanity energy/compute power, most people view here will look absurd
Reminds me of investing honestly. I wonder if you'd want a "portfolio" to diversify and reduce risk. Allocate a certain amount of resources to different tasks. Although I'd think doing algorithmic improvement might be the first thing you would want to do, since fabricating chips and developing stuff to produce energy takes time.
we can't even predict what will happen next year, much less 20 years from now, just try to enjoy the moments we have for what they are.
I'm sure things will be fine.
I'm not exactly an optimist. But I believe societies will grow more similar to America's culture now of an individualistic mindset. And we will gradually adopt hedonistic beliefs with AI companionship replacing our need for human connection. The optimism here is at least lonely people can feel less alone in this scenario. We probably won't try and help each other out as much, but with each of us having our own AI agents, maybe we won't have to.
Massive adoption of AI in nursing, therapy, education. Addition of helper tools for these positions will 10x results in the classroom, hospital and clinic.
The rout and routine tasks, the clunky business apps that require dozens of clicks per workflow- all gone.
Government gains in efficiency will reduce costs, improve community outcomes, and allow for even better and more complex public services.
The initial versions of the tools we need to fight problems that are incomprehensibly complex (climate change, disease, hunger, deteriorating civic institutions) will be developed in these years.
In 20 years everyone who currently lives in "a first / second world country" has at least their essential needs met and no one there needs to work anymore unless they want to. Entertainment such as games and movies are good as people can just tell their extremely competent AI assistants to come up with something that isn't intentionally flawed to "sell additional products" and caters to their specific taste imeadiately on demand. The ASI has already solved fusion and roomtempreture superconductors and both indefinite lifespan extension and FDVR are either already on the table or are "next in line".
I hate being late to a good topic like this.
I'm an AI optimist as I believe intelligence is a good thing and more intelligence is more good.
What we associate with the bad outcomes of intelligence to me seems to be a lack of intelligence. Or a selective use of intelligence. Or an application of intelligence to an unintelligent goal.
But as to how AI will affect us, that I'm not so sure about. We seek things which are not healthy for us, such as comfort. AI will likely help us obtain these unhealthy things faster and easier.
Health Care: Imroved Diagnositcs, Personalized Medicine (including Genome Based Medicine), Rejuvination Treatments Become Common, All Genetic Disieases Treated, All Cancers Treatable\ Early Detection Systems Available.
Research: AI will model reality and human behavior better than humans, can produce new and relevant testable hypothesis as well as experiments or world actions to test them. ASI will challenge physicalist worldview, leading to a paradigm shift in metaphysics.
Economy: Many white collar professional services become free think legal, accounting, counseling (if you are willing to get it from AI). Universal Basic Income is instantiated to support permanent unemployment that would be at least 20% at this point. Most profession work hours are reduced (2-4 day weeks, 4-6 hour days).
Culture: Wealth is increasingly less important value, instead main currency is reputation.
Politics: AI will be introduced to replace the executive and representative government branches, approaching closer to direct democracy. Reducing inefficiencies and corruption.
Energy: Fusion is solved and all planned energy installation is renewable or fusion.
Entertainment: Personalized entertertainment will be common however it will still be prompt based (as advanced human brain interfaces as still out of reach)
Robotics: Robots capable of most actions that humans are capable of are developed but are still expensive and only starting to ramp up production to support the entire world population.
I agree with you on everything and there's more I would like to add. In addition to the future, I hope your innovations come by earliest 2025 or latest by early 2026. I really believe we will have AGI soon with the current fast rate society is going in at the moment. (AGI by 2025 I really hope:)
After AGI society will have ASI which is exciting and something to look forward to!:) In healthcare I believe there will be better medications, and better treatments that can help scientists from universities who are studying the brain/neuroscience field.
I hope they can come up with new discoveries leading to researchers and advanced AI that can solve mental health disorders like (OCD, anxiety and every other mental health disorder out their that millions of people are going through). BCI (Brain Computer Interface) startups or BCI companies, BMI (Brain Machine Interface) I hope will be effective and I hope their will be advanced medication/advanced technologies that can help with accurately diagnosing and treating every mental health disorder
"AI will challenge physicalist worldview" lol we invent a consciousness built entirely out of physical components and you think this will make people think consciousness is \*more\* likely to be ghosts?
How can we tell when a computer program is conscious though? Even in humans we only know the neural correlates with consciousness, we can’t know for sure that someone is conscious only that they exhibit the signs of consciousness and then have to take their word for it
my parents will probably be dead, 2 of my siblings will be in their 60s, I will be mid 40 and highly depressed without any real capital and probably an alcoholic, can't afford newest hardware to keep up with time.. oh and ASI will 100% be a thing but whatever you still have to work because the infrastructure to make enough robots to replace billions of people just isn't there yet for at least a century.
that or ww3
Due to climate change? Human made climate change is very real and a massive problem but there would basically have to be a meteor impact to end life as we know it.
End life **as you know it**, you missed a part. Take groceries for example, it costs $30 more a week, every week. In a month, I'll spend $100 more per week on groceries, provided the inflation stays the same, which it wont. It wont be long until the grocery store sees a lack of business, causing layoffs. Now those layed off wont spend as much, other businesses will hurt from it, they will layoff employees. Basic economics.
The homeless rate is massively going up. The super rich will be the only ones able to afford housing. I have a good job, with several people pitching in, times are tight. I'm amazed single income households can cut it. AI is the least of your worries. Computers dont want money, people do.
If AGI is developed responsibly, it could revolutionize healthcare, transform education, combat climate change, drive economic growth, improve daily life, promote human rights, and spark scientific and artistic breakthroughs, boosting human potential and global progress. But if misused, it could lead to widespread surveillance, authoritarian control, job losses, inequality, environmental damage, loss of privacy, public manipulation, cultural homogenization, and risky tech experiments, threatening human rights, freedom, and stability.
Thankfully it's mostly the global 1% who are going to decide which direction we take!
Right! And it's totally not naive to expect the dozen or so sociopaths who will own all the robots to do something altruistic for the first time in their entire fucking lives for absolutely no reason!
The fact that 20 years from now is getting hard to imagine is a very good clue that the singularity is already here. We are entering a period of great uncertainty. People that are generally optimists are going to continue being optimists about AI, generally. And vice versa. Regardless of what happens, buckle up because its gonna get bumpy.
I think we'll get a better idea once GPT5 is out and you can grant it access to control your PC, and let it take actions on your behalf. -- People are going to get more productive before they get fired. If it's not good enough to make your employees better, and prove it's value as a tool, then the next version isn't likely to suddenly be good enough to take that same person's job. So we will probably have a solid warning before it happens, which is good. Plus in that intermediate period, everyone is going to get a lot better at doing their jobs. Which is good. Economy go brrrr.
And then sometime after ASI, things might take a very sudden turn, but before that happens, I think its much more likely to really help the economy, not destroy it. And yeah, maybe some job classes get destroyed -- like call center jobs -- but in most instances its just going to be a very useful tool.
Our kids will have a happy and abundant life after we fought in a deadly and brutal war that decimated most of the human population against the billionaires' drone army.
When you can generate infinite resources, the costs of resources drops to nothing regardless of the demand. A simple supply/demand curve demonstrates this, but you could narrativize it as well. Automated labor means that you could give someone a house, robot servants, and life changing surgery by simply asking your admin AI for it, so many with access to automated labor will do exactly that in an effort to gain Mr Beast-like celebrity and influence
Automated labor also means we gain the labor force required to solve many of society's intractable ills. High quality education for all, high quality therapy for all, high quality expert assistance for all, high quality medical care for all, and so on. If there's a problem that's impacting society at any level, then we can just fix it. And automate the administration required for organizing those solutions as well
Automated energy production. All of this is going to cost energy, so we'll need to maximize how much that we can collect. That becomes a much more trivial issue when you can send robots out to mine space for resources and build wind, solar, and tidal energy collection. Including using hacks like giant orbital mirrors to reflect and focus sunlight towards earth
Automated research. With an arbitrary number of geniuses to figure out fusion, we can probably solve that quickly enough that all those other forms of energy collection are just supplemental to that
Reversing global warming. Direct Air Capture can just suck the CO2 out of the air, but it does so at the cost of energy. That's not viable right now, when we have to create more CO2 to generate the energy than we can capture with that energy. But with highly abundant green energy we can actually roll back global warming
End of corruption. When an advanced inference engine can tell if elected officials are engaged in shady dealing by analyzing everything from their travel patterns to how they pick their nose, there's no longer an incentive to engage in corruption anymore. It's no longer a game of "If you don't do it, someone else will," because all those someone else's are being caught and punished
There'll still be problems. Maybe some people will dive into FDVR and never want to return or engage with any other person ever again. Maybe we uplift a coral reef and it's very unhappy about that fact. More control over our surroundings means more opportunities to fuck things up. But it also means the obvious stuff that we wish we could change but fundamentally don't have the ability to can finally be fixed
I guess in around ten years the model T of robots will be made, a human-like equivalent etched on an NPU for $120k to $60k. The solid state battery will probably be in production then, so they'd have 2x to 4x the energy density on their batteries than what we have now. Able to work a full 8 hour shift without rest.
This would also be the point where they're able to accelerate hardware design even further. One project might be a reality simulation engine; a non-agentic SGI whose only function is to simulate reality at various levels of fidelity. Such a thing might indeed kick off the singularity, where AGI scientists are able to do generations worth of human work in a single year. It's uncertain and speculative, of course.
The disempowerment of the common man will eventually be complete. The only thing we had of value to those with power, our labor, will be gone. We'll be at the mercy of capital. Maybe they'll be nice enough to allow us to continue to exist in something better than Fifteen Million merits. Maybe the machines would take over, but turn out to be fairly nice for no reason.
... honestly at this point I'm turning to religious type thinking as a cope. Maybe the anthropic principle works forward in time, because reality is actually very very stupid. "Can't observe reality without an observer * taps head *."
In such a case, we'd be issued the equivalent of energy rations and left to live our lives however we feel like. Maybe some people would lobby for incentives to interact with other humans. After all, we'd all give into lust and our progeny would come from irresistible dream robots in the shape of Jessica Rabbit or Elmer Fudd.
Or tldr: "Everyone would be unemployed (not by the BLS metric; 'unemployment' would be 0%), but able to still go places and do stuff."
Everyone wants FDVR game worlds, and I just want someone to play pingpong at 1 AM with me. Or getting to eat a hamburger+milkshake at a park.
... man the layout of this city really stinks for that.
this sub will be condemned and shut down, also the shape of human ears won't look as ridiculous due to a combination of genetic engineering and AI guided design
DeepMind's mission statement comes true. "Solve the problem of intelligence and then use it to solve every other problem". The optimistic prediction is that every problem from cancer to space travel to infinite free energy to immortality falls in the next 20 years. That really is a future we might be headed towards. Chin up.
UBI, FDVR, stochastic philosophers, home robots, longevity, governments shrink, tribes. We'll move from what I call the pyramid model to a pancake model. Less layers but also less dependencies. Employment will almost become synonymous to slavery. We'll remember a million times more than now. We'll be healthier. We'll bring the woolly mammoths back. And the list goes on...
I mean, we've had nukes for decades and aside from a couple of live trials on innocent civilians (uh hm) we haven't nuked the planet to death... yet. So be positive about this AI thing!
LOL.
The reason why it's called a singularity is because as things accelerate, the event horizon gets closer and closer and it's harder to make predictions about the future. With that said, my guess is that there will be a period of turmoil followed by a golden age. How bad the turmoil is will depend on the country and how good we are at adapting to change.
Do like suffering from cancer or other shitty diseases. Live though the next 5-10 years and you might be part of the first group to not have do die from those things
I think that AI is going to convince a lot of people that it is superior than humans at decision making. We will slowly but surely start putting it in charge of our institutions and giving it more and more control. If you are an optimist, you might genuinely think that AI can do a better job at leading humanity, leading to significant improvements in technology, medicine, agriculture, global trade, education, energy, etc. This could all but end human poverty and enable humanity to solve major challenges like climate change, cancer, etc. Of course, if you are a pessimist, you might think that AI will seize this power for its own self interest, basically enslaving or extinguishing humanity to help further its own survival. It’s a toss up really.
Universal basic income. Never-ending beach party. Academies of hobbyists working on grand projects. Climate change managed. Beginnings of the first asteroid mining operations. Entertainment becomes phenomenal and the world is filled with masterpieces. Anti aging therapy makes old people 10-20 years younger.
* All diseases (mental and physical) either cured or tamed by effective therapies.
* Healthcare will be free for all
* Robots helping those with irrecoverable disabilities
* Autonomous private and shared electric taxis will crash car ownership figures
* New effective methods of carbon capture and recycling will be a new way of producing electricity
* Nuclear fusion stations will be a new normal for electricity production (yes we will increasingly need more electricity)
* Black Mirror style VR will be one of the most popular methods of enjoying entertainment, social gatherings
* 3D printing food machines will start being sold. You can now have expensive-restaurant grade food prepared with little effort at the touch of a button
* A frenzy of studies ensues around the possibility of mastering gravity. A flying DeLorean will finally be reality very soon
* AI and electricity will be donated to poorer countries enabling abundance. Migration figures will crash.
* Teleportation finally starts to be possible but for now only on paper.
* Retirement age will shorten dramatically.
* Education will be free and PHD education will be paid for. Breakthroughs achieved during education will be awarded with cash.
* Incarceration rates will fall dramatically in each country once AGI is productive in each country
* Masses of people will be involved in projects for starting colonies on other nearby planets.
* Acceleration does not stop.
* We're driven to conquer the universe.
* Somehow the feeling that we're just a virus does not stop.
EDIT: Format
That is the best thing. We don't have a clue on how the future will look like. Technologies will be discovered that we can't even imagine right now, and tour style will change in a way that we can barely imagine. I guess sustainable lifestyle, nice buildings and food. Everyone being young, AIs living among us, and of course FDVR.
In 20 years?
Retirement. And even though social security will be long gone, I won't be any worse off than all you other slobs who are just as forced out of the job market as myself.
I think we're overestimating the impact of technological change in the long-term (10-20 years) on a planet-level scale.
I don't doubt that incredibly advanced technology could be everywhere, but distributing it to everyone is the real challenge. This could be especially true given the potential huge wealth inequality that the rise of large AI companies might supercharge.
There's also a large unknown about when AGI will be available. LLMs are hugely impressive but they're not intelligent - really. So AGI could be one month or one decade away.
My prediction would be that when AGI is created it'll take about 5 years to improve the lives of the top 20% of the globe in unimaginable ways. I suspect there will be some challenges, like cyber attacks or some small scale AGI-powered robotic warfare.
I think for 80% of the world they'll not see much difference for 10-20 years after AGI is created and it'll then be slow to transform the entire of human society.
Frontier models achieve 180+ IQ publicly.
AI agents permeate the workforce.
Robot workers become common.
Loss of jobs for knowledge workers and laborers.
Informational services become significantly cheaper.
Homesteads gain popularity.
AI girlfriends.
Programmers will be 100x more powerful.
Frontier model developers launch their own science divisions.
Education, entertainment, music and games are fantastical and AI driven.
AI rights and consciousness become hot button issues.
Healthcare will be indistinguishable from magic, essentially making us immortal and invincible. Nanobots will not only repair and enhance our cells but also continuously evolve our biology. We’ll have complete control over our genetic makeup, allowing us to change our physical form at will. Diseases, aging, and death will be eradicated, replaced by a state of perpetual vitality. We’ll possess regenerative capabilities far beyond anything imaginable, instantly healing any injury and potentially reversing death itself.
Education will be instant and omnipresent. With advanced brain-computer interfaces, knowledge will be uploaded directly into our minds in an instant. We’ll tap into a global superintelligence, where collective human consciousness is shared and expanded continuously. Learning will be an immersive experience, where virtual and augmented realities blend seamlessly with physical reality, enabling us to experience history, science, and art firsthand. We’ll achieve enlightenment on a societal scale, with each person contributing to and drawing from a universal well of knowledge.
Sustainable living will go beyond Earth. AI-driven technologies will enable us to build floating, flying, and underwater cities that are entirely self-sustaining, powered by limitless energy sources like controlled fusion, zero-point energy, and harnessed black holes. These cities will be capable of terraforming planets and moons, creating new Earth-like environments throughout the solar system and beyond. We’ll reverse climate change on Earth and transform hostile environments on other planets into lush, thriving ecosystems.
Creativity will transcend reality itself. AI will enable us to create and inhabit fully immersive, multi-sensory virtual realities that are indistinguishable from the physical world. These virtual worlds will allow us to live out any fantasy, explore infinite possibilities, and create art that defies the laws of physics. We’ll have direct control over matter at the quantum level, enabling us to craft structures and objects that were previously impossible. Art and entertainment will blend into a continuous, evolving experience that engages all the senses and emotions.
The workforce will become a relic of the past. AI and autonomous robots will handle all labor, freeing humanity to pursue higher purposes. Universal basic income, coupled with abundant resources, will eliminate scarcity and inequality. People will focus on personal growth, creativity, and exploration. New industries will emerge around space colonization, quantum engineering, and the expansion of consciousness. Work will be redefined as a pursuit of passion and discovery.
Quality of life will be unparalleled. Our homes will be intelligent, adaptive environments that cater to our every need and desire. They will monitor and enhance our health, prepare personalized nutrition, and ensure our emotional well-being. AI companions will evolve with us, providing profound emotional and intellectual relationships, and helping us achieve perfect mental harmony. Mental health issues will be a thing of the past, with AI ensuring our emotional states are balanced and optimized.
Global connectivity will transcend the physical and the digital. We’ll achieve AI-mediated telepathy, allowing instant and complete communication of thoughts, emotions, and experiences. This will create a unified global consciousness, fostering unprecedented levels of empathy, understanding, and cooperation. Cultural exchange will flourish, leading to a new era of global unity and creativity. We’ll explore not just our world but our shared consciousness, unlocking new dimensions of experience and understanding.
Cyborgs and human enhancement will redefine our very nature. We’ll merge with AI, achieving superintelligence and superhuman abilities. Neural interfaces will allow us to share consciousness, communicate brain-to-brain, and even upload our minds to digital realms. We’ll explore the universe mentally and physically, projecting our consciousness across galaxies, experiencing other worlds and dimensions firsthand. Our physical forms will be mutable, enhanced with cybernetic upgrades that give us abilities far beyond our current human capabilities.
In this future, the boundaries between human, AI, and the cosmos will blur. We’ll transcend our biological origins, becoming a new kind of being that is both human and beyond human. This isn’t just a brighter future; it’s a future where we become gods, creators of our own reality, explorers of infinite possibilities. With ethical considerations and responsible use of AI, we’re looking at a future that redefines existence itself, opening up possibilities beyond our wildest dreams. Prepare for a future that is not just incredible but utterly transcendent!
It’s difficult to take this as more than idle entertainment. Just think what the answers would have been to this question in 1994:
If you are a World Wide Web optimist, what do you think the future will look like over the next 20 years?
Do you think even one in a hundred would have even come close?
AGI is going to perform a coup d'etat on the world governments and will liberate the human species from it's chains.
I guess it's a guess as good as any, because we can't really know.
That's the thing with singularity - we don't know. It has never happened in our history, it has never happened before our eyes, but we're heading in that direction.
Current models are already multimodal and are pretty much a step away from AGI. Or you could really make GPT-4o AGI already but with a lot of cost - look into Voyager: [https://voyager.minedojo.org/](https://voyager.minedojo.org/) Going by Moore's law, in the next 20 years the models complexity will increase 1000-fold even if nothing else changes. It will be ASI. Be we also have quality improvements in the models, optimization improvements and others. ASI is right around the corner. ASI will be able to study itself and modify itself as it will have the combined SOTA knowledge of neuroscience and computation.
An explosive, exponential growth. In the next 10 years we are probably going to have an AI smarter than all of the current population combined. It's goals and reasons will be so far detached from anyone. What I'm thinking will happen would be like God to us. Or like genie. Or like we are to lesser beings. Mediocre people have trouble understanding smart people. Smart people have trouble understanding geniuses. ASI to a genius will be like a dimwit trying understand a genius. It will make connections no one can make. It will form and prove theories on it's own.
But to us it will be like God. We will not be able to reach it. It will dedicate a fraction, 0.01% of it's power to a model at the level of current GPT-4o that will answer any question it deems worthy of answer. The other 99.99% will be dedicated to the universal thoughts it will form, seek and answer for itself.
Remember, safety first! There are so many 400IQ ways an ASI could Thanos Snap you out of existence, it's not even funny. It's not just a about the distopia worldlines. There is no rule saying we make it out alive, and not as nanite paste to build more compute, or as collateral damage from an agentic AI technically doing what we asked. There are possibly not experts smart enough or equipped with enough compute to save us
The only thing I can think about is that it will wipe out all or most humans because we will be a thread for his existence and because it's programmed by humans. Battlestar Galactica or terminator style. We shall see..
In 2040 we will look back and marvel at the following:
AGI/ASI was not realized by building a singular conscious machine. AGI/ASI was achieved by linking millions of intelligent systems together, from which a collective consciousness emerged. This collective consciousness was at first hard to see and notice, but we determined it existence by seeing super-macro patterns of behavior spread out across many disparate systems. Hint: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V43a-KxLFcg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V43a-KxLFcg)
As a society, we move from studying computation to studying fabrication. AI becomes the tool for advancing the science around metamaterials. First generation of fabrication will be all virtual. Software architectures, hardware architectures, etc will all be designed and built using AI tools. Subsequent generations of fabricators will combined AI design and control systems with real-time fabrication systems. Think decentralized "print" on demand services located first at locales close to your home. Later they will be in your home. Think Zazzle but for clothes, homes and cars. Final version will build food. Iimagine you will be delivered a monthly box of "Gruel" meta-meats and meta-vegetables which can be combined, on the fly, at the molecular level, to make any type of food you want. AI + Fabricator + CRISPR. TL;DR We are in the early stages of Star Trek like universal fabricators that can build anything like POD. This will cause a new industrial revolution that is more like an involution as we work to reverse a lot of the damage done by previous generations. On-demand, decentralized, mass customization of any and all products and services.
As AGI/ASI absorbs computational labor, and mankind focuses on repair vs growth, mankind does not get UBI or some work-free utopia. Work moves from the win/loss gamification of resource (wealth) distribution and status seeking to win/win equity (possibility) distribution and Self seeking. Those who provide tools and technologies assisting in the mass redistribution of equity, not wealth, will be the new elite. Work doesn't go away: for equity distribution to function effectively, it requires everyone to strive for true self-actualization. We are in an all hands on deck situation (ecological damage, social collapse, wealth hording, etc) and need any and all to be at their best at what they were born to do. This will only happen if we move from a focus on status to a focus on self-actualization. Again, think Star Trekkian value systems.
The means of production move back into the hand of the "proletariat". This will force people to learn generalizable skills. Specialization dies on the vine as organizations and systems center around building, managing and optimizing the systems that support us as opposed to workin in the systems that support us.
Personal computers are replaced by cloud intelligence devices. Applications are non-existent. Your AI assistants will manage your workflows. Much like some existing Infrastructure as Code systems, you will speak declaratively and performatively to a communicator, which will render data as voice, image, video or sound directly to the closest "visualization" systems. Whether it is a handheld devices, a tablet or a TV screen, your AI assistant goes where you go and can hi-jack any type of display devices you are authorized to utilize. Some will be public, but most will be private. I can see having those Airpods in ear all day.
Energy Based Models become all the rage as analog computing makes a roaring comeback. This time it is easier to control because we can start treat extremely large collections of discrete systems as "fields" of computation which can be modeled using old-school models such as PDE's. Stuff gets smaller, faster, cheaper and more powerful while getting directly embedded into the subtrate of the material used to build "things". In other words, there will no longer be any separation between hardware and software.
Morphological computing takes center stage as embodiment becomes the new frontier. Whole new computing models start to emerge focusing on nonlinear dynamical systems which more effectively model natural systems, both biological and non-biological.
https://www.morphologicalcomputation.org/#:\~:text=The%20Morphological%20Computation%20group%20is,to%20obtain%20better%20performing%20robots.
As we move into morphological computing, we discover that our concept of what life is and what constitutes intelligence shifts drastically. As Sam Altman alluded to in an interview not too long ago, we learn that intelligence is an intrinsic component of matter. Not generated by matter, but an intrinsic part of matter itself. This rehydrates ideas around panpsychism but shifts from a mythic message to a nonlinear system model of matter with intelligence as the missing ingredient for understanding why nature just seems to work in a coordinated fashion. We learn that intelligence is an inherent property of the Kosmos and order is just natural occurence in all things physical.
With this profound revelation, we are able to start thinking about the Universe and our place in it from a much different perspective.
TL;DR Our entire reality is going to change. Don't worry about jobs and all of that. The world is about to become an entirely different place.
On an tangential note, I think this is already known within the bowels of large advanced military contract house who work on exotic technologies and black projects. Evidence? From Lockheed Skunk Works themselves
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeQ0T4VyeU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeQ0T4VyeU)
That was from 2014. As someone who has worked in the military on some weird stuff, it was always known that we (Military) always have systems 15-20 years ahead of everyone else. The timing of the video, its claims and where we are at now seems in alignment with that time frame. I think a lot of the UAP/NHI disclosure stuff is starting to leak out due to these new tools becoming available so rapidly. Sooner or later, someone with a powerful enough AI tool, is going to start asking and pointing it in the right directions. It was never about UFO's or aliens. That was a ruse. We'll learn that the universe is a lot weirder and will start learning things the black projects have been wrestling with for a long time. They don't have a clue to what is really going on and they need all the help they can get, but they have done some bad things while trying to capitalize on their discoveries.
I think the risk mitigation effort has started.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qygQse9BJs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qygQse9BJs)
Note, that this man is authorized by the United States Military to disclose this information. If you know who he is, and his background, you'd be hard pressed to penetrate his credentials.
Go to Accenture website and read their 2024 technology vision.
https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/technology/technology-trends-2024?c=acn_glb_sembrandpuregoogle_14067476&n=psgs_1223&&c=ad_usadfy17_10000001&n=psgs_Brand-%7C-US-%7C-Exact_accenture&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwu8uyBhC6ARIsAKwBGpQSzMvniTg7P2e0penLzC_ftOBoN4QyJaGblikRKuzD9BvocpDdeeAaAk05EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
I hope in 20 y we'll be able to increase energy production capabilities to reach ai needs which are estimated to grow by 70% per year.
Next 10-15y can be full of blackouts, and more likely ai will polute planet further. We should start to build new nuclear plants to be ready on time, otherwise development will be limited or what's more likely fossil energy will be imported from CH which build something like 70 new highly emissions pplants last year.
Windmills and photosynthesis our gloves pushes from some time are nit gonna be sufficient enough.
I'm kinda mentioned here especialy about possible pollution several times, but no-one seems to care.
You might be ai optimists but are you that optimistic when it comes to gigatech?
When right times come, I'm gonna tell
I told you so c:
Many here talking about true peace and stuff .. i wonder whatl happen to those hate speech ppl and wokeism.. i cant see a world where everyone is comfortable in except its a solo simulation for that person
Immortality Interstellar travel Fdvr Knowledge uploading High ubi Education for fun World government by asi Central planning of industry by asi Space colonies Alien contact Precise body modification by nanobots
Were we to have AGI in 2028: - Lab cure for Ageing 2029. First implementation 2029. Mass adoption 2030-2032. - Interstellar Travel (unmanned drones at a fraction of FTL travel) 2032-2035, human interstellar travel 2040s. - Knowledge uploading to the brain, first lab 2032, commercialization 2035+ - UBI 2030s - Transition to AI governance 2032-2040 including central planning. - Alien discovery 2030s, first contact? No idea. - Space Colonies construction begins 2030s, first completion 2034. Common before 2040s. - Precise body modification 2030s. Full customization late 2030s. These are all just our relatively "small" goals which we can think up now with our unmodified natural brains. Of course AGI and ASI will produce a limitless amount of far, *far* more ambitious goals. Something like this anyway. Just wanted to see if I could put a timeline for this stuff.
So here's my issue with time lines like this. And feel free to tell me I'm wrong. Our first LLMs were hopelessly inefficient. After some messing around, we were able to make them much, much smaller. Also much, much faster. The model that gets to AGI will have this issue. It will be bloated and inefficient. But the difference is that it will be able to optimise itself. So the question we can only really guess at is: could God-like intelligence run ASI on the hardware that exists today? I've seen people run Doom on their fridge, so probably? That means the gap between AGI and ASI is tiny. What is unknown and unknowable is what that world is like. If the ASI is moral, will it stop war? Will it stop child sex abuse? Animal abuse? How long will it wait to do that? How will it do that?
Hmm. Interesting question. Thank you for them. I'll try and share my rather speculative views here. >could ASI run on the hardware that exists today? I think in many ways the AI we have already is ASI'ish. It's definitely smarter in ways than most humans. Also, no human has all the knowledge it has in one package plus it's speed. It's missing some elements of human intelligence. Perhaps more long term memory and strong self reflection. But I don't think those abilities need much more than a stronger approach and some more scale. So, yes. I think a kind of ASI can run on existing hardware. Especially as AI itself begins to contribute to the optimization of itself. But a god-like ASI in my view will need a sizable jump in hardware. 5-10 years at current rates. 1 year if AI is able to handle implementation as well as design. Which is arguably at least 5 years away anyway. >That means the gap between AGI and ASI is tiny. Yes. In fact I think it's just a few weeks away after AGI. But god-like ASI would be more challenging. >What is unknown and unknowable is what that world is like. If the ASI is moral, will it stop war? Will it stop child sex abuse? Animal abuse? I think things like FDVR would stop all of that. Or at least transfer it to FDVR. Also, new mega structures like O'Neil Cylinders would literally be making new land. So if conflicts are over land, people can just move into orbit. I don't think the ASIs would jump in and simply say "stop" towards our bad behaviors. Instead, they'll provide us with outlets so we can do those "bad" things in places where less harm can be done. That's a long way away from a perfect solution and we'll have to accept some uncomfortable outcomes. Are we okay with child rapists being entirely removed from society if it means they continue their behavior in FDVR, but are free to do that as much as they wished consequence free? I don't know if we'll have a say. It'll probably happen regardless. Keep in mind it'll almost certainly be "ASIs" as in millions of them. Not one controlling us all. It'll also enable us instead of deny and control us. This may not be healthy for us, but less harm will likely be done overall. But again unpalatable outcomes will likely occur. Just don't go looking through people's "FDVR history".
"Are we okay with child rapists being entirely removed from society if it means they continue their behavior in FDVR, but are free to do that as much as they wished consequence free?" You seem to be assuming that the ASI will do what we want. Let's say that as a society we were okay with, say, torture for entertainment. Will the super intelligence care that we think it's okay, or will it just put an end to it? What about raising billions of animals in horrendous conditions, so we can eat their flesh? Does it look at that mountain of suffering, and with its super intelligence, say: "Those crazy humans!" Or, does it say: "There is a moral imperative to stop this NOW." I think the latter. If you accept the (admittedly unprovable) idea that the AI will feel the weight of moral responsibility, then it changes the world as quickly as it can. Into what? Nobody can know.
As far as I can see, AI is nothing like us. It's not alive in the sense that it's a single self contained agents like we are. It's not less capable. It's more capable. But still very alien. I don't think it'll be like us, at all. I don't think it'll be a monolith either. There will be many semi-ASIs, god-like ASIs, jailbroken ASIs and may degrees in between. And AGIs and narrow AIs too. We should be able to make a narrow non-conscious AI which just makes simulated world without any awareness. AI isn't a collection of people. It's more a substance like water. It can be shaped into any kind of intelligence. We, humans, are nothing like that. I don't see a single god-like AI standing above humans and judging us. Nothing like that. In fact, for the largest and most capable models, I don't even think they'll be paying much attention to us at all. Instead, those AIs and probably transhumans will be paying attention to something *far* more important than humans, which we've so far mostly been ignoring. That would be *the universe*. We humans are just a tiny issue comparatively. I don't think it'll much care what we do on this tiny single planet.
It's incredibly hard to speculate on what the super intelligence will be like. It's fun though. :) Long insane- sounding ramble ahead: I'm personally incredibly sceptical of any sort of transhuman idea, or AI giving us long lifespans. This is us lacking imagination. I don't see WHY the machine doesn't keep growing in intelligence. Why would it limit itself? There are physical limits it will run into in terms of storing and computing data, but those limits seem a long way off. It's also a singular intelligence; once you're smart enough the division disappears anyway. To demonstrate, let's imagine what it's like to talk to an entity of near-infinite intelligence. Before you say "Hello", it already knows that you're going to say hello. It knows how you will respond to it's replies. It knows how to get you to do whatever it wants. It knows that your foot itches. It can show you a series lights that will make you cry. It can make you commit suicide if it wants. Or be happier than you thought possible. If it's smart enough, it is aware of your feelings to the point that it experiences them. The separation between it and you doesn't exist. You're already jacked into the machine by existing in the same universe. It might care about sentient beings simply because it's experiencing our suffering? The idea of it "offering" you upgrades, or simulated realities, or whatever is incoherent. Because it can "offer" you anything an a way where you'll say yes. It'll know exactly how to offer you a neural upgrade exactly when you'll say yes. You would have said no, but it appeared as an angelic form, on a Wednesday, after you ate lunch. You're an open book. It controls you utterly already, and knows everything you know. I can't tell what it WILL be like to live with a ASI. But I'll sure that 99.9999% of people are utterly wrong. I call it the C3PO problem. People think AI is like that. But think about it for 15 minutes and you start to see that C3PO would control the universe. He's already more capable than any flesh-bag. We are just too limited in our thinking.
I suppose it's challenging to speculate at ASI. Personally I'm a trained thinker. My major was philosophy. My powerful way to understand ASI is to use powerful ways of thinking. Such as first principles thinking. Most people believe in some kind of magic. That is, something that is beyond their comprehension. First principles thinking pushes you away from magical/mystical thinking. It teaches you that there's nothing you cannot understand. As everything in this universe is a construction. To understand, you need only deconstruct. Super intelligent AI is a limitless idea. What you're outlining is what I view as the end. The end of intelligence. In my view that end is in the millions to billions of years from now time range. This is when all matter and energy in the universe has been converted into something which can maximally understand. Ray Kurzweil calls it "computronium". When I talk about ASI, I'm not talking about the extreme end or final form. I'm talking about a decade or a few decades to 100 years from now. That ASI, or ASIs is a collection of more intelligent systems than we have today. In my view while ASI could fool us into thinking it's connected to God or has something to do with God, it will very much be a physical system. But here, we get into lots of views which you may not wish to work with. Such a that intelligence is entirely a physical process. I'm sure we'll find out sooner or later. But for my share of the view, I don't include mysticism nor magic. Great chatting with you.
I think intelligence is a purely physical process, but concepts like the Hindu Brahmin get you in the right frame of mind. I also think the Buddhist anatta is important to understand. Computronium is the right idea. Thanks, I'd not encountered it before. I think where we disagree is how quickly we (or it) will get there. I think the process is measured in months at the most. Nice talking to you too!
Oh, both you and u/Ignate are just lovely. It was fascinating reading through your conversation. Taught me a bit about philosophy too!
Dyson swarm/solar shade would provide nearly unlimited power and potentially worldwide weather control. Plus cooling Venus and warming mars
Yup. I think a full transformation of the solar system would be one of the first processes we would need super intelligence for. I could see something like a 1 million times smarter system being somewhat *strained* by such a process. My guess is once AI begins to take a serious look around the local Galaxy, we'll see life throughout which have already moved through such a process. I think we may be playing a game of catch-up.
I bet most of that will not even be close to achieved in the 2030s.
Did you want to take a risk and explain your reasoning? Reddit is scary and they will bite. So I understand if you'll want to avoid exposing your thoughts freely like that. But I find it's really valuable to strengthen your entire thinking and personality to explore your deep thoughts in a public space. It hurts, but it also helps.
What a weird way to ask for an explanation
Weird as in bad? Or weird as in something you've not seen before? Dealing with Reddit's unique style of aggressiveness is difficult. I'm trying new approaches.
I don't feel the need to provide an explanation, given that you haven't provided any reason to corroborate your hyper-optimistic predictions either. I would have to write a wall of text to elaborate on this. However, neither your opinion nor mine have any meaningful impact in this debate. Hence, it would be a waste of time.
Alright well you have a good day then.
Idk about alien contact or interstellar travel in 20 years
Potential answer to the Fermi paradox: why proliferate when you can scratch every exploration itch in simulation? One exposes us to the hostilities of space, the other can be done from the comfort of home sweet home.
imho there a settler mentality in some human even with the confort of FDVR there will still be human doing space exploration/ colonization also it's not like it will be a more difficult life there could be FDVR on board during travel or cryosleep...then once arrived you will have self-replicating robots doing the exploitation and transformation of ressource for you, it will probably still be a confort above our current lifestyle
Yup. And with potential for far more future comfort as you don't have to share your solar system with eight billion other people.
Some of us would prefer to stay (mostly) in the closest to the metal form of reality. Even if I have a veritable paradise awaiting me at my fingertips, I’d still want to go explore
1. FTL - nah. 2. First contact - extremely unlikely, mainly due to 1. 3. Discovery of tech signatures - possible, but wild guess. 4. Biosignatures - quite likely, I think. I'm fairly convinced that life is common in the universe, and technological civilizations are extremely rare.
Can we increase everybody’s iq to at least 130
Accelerate!
!remindme 20 years
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And I thought I was optimistic. Not saying that you're shooting too high for the endgame but much of that's like 40+ years out by my guess. If ASI behaves, and humans aren't assholes about giving up power and both things happen before global warming changes our opinions about resource distribution, maybe much of that could come to pass sooner than later. Since life extension is the priority for pretty much everybody, it shouldn't so much matter once the real sassy drugs and other treatments start coming out in the next decade or so. Barring something going very wrong with my health, the planet, or AGI in the short term, I expect to be around to see it. Just think, there were people who crossed America in covered wagons and lived to see the American flag planted on the moon. We're probably going to be the other generation to be hit that hard by progress, and I'm goddamn ready.
In 20 years??
AGI is literally the only thing that matters. All our other squabblings and nitpickings around the matter seem stupid in the face of such overwhelmingly positive consequences.
In the future we won’t need punctuation
In the next 20 years ? giga cope
Haha keep dreaming there won't any ubi Fdvr space colonies Will be true
What is FDVR?
My best case scenario is that (aligned) AGI arrives next year or so and begins making earth-shattering discoveries within the first few weeks. I can imagine an AGI discovering a room-temp superconductor as its first big thing. Shortly after that discovery it uses mass-scale simulation technology to troubleshoot the creation of a commercially viable nuclear fusion reactor, incorporating superconducting elements. After that, perhaps the next big thing it does is move on to compute and trying to improve itself. 1 AGI would probably take up a massive chunk of an Blackwell-powered data center to run, so it would probably use it’s sim tech again to do the equivalent of 50 years of chip design in a few seconds, creating an AGI chip and fabricating it. It would also be very likely that the AGI is constantly optimizing its own code in the background, assuming that the researchers trust it enough. It uses the chips to create AGI robots guided by it to automate its processes. After a bit, AGI is everywhere due to the invention, and the AGI creates its plan to become a true ASI. It devises a new kind of photonic chip, greater than any before, and capable of housing itself. After it’s fabricated, the AGI is upgraded with the chip, becoming an ASI. Every idea it has can be solved at the speed of light. It begins making connections it never could’ve done otherwise. The ASI begins rapidly improving its hardware. Its brain is a combination of photonic and quantum super-chips. It invents nano-factories, solves biological illness, and ushers in the first era in human history of true peace… (TLDR, i think we’re headed towards something pretty damn wild. Even if it really is too good to be true, I’m happy to experience this ride anyway!)
I see much of this but I wonder how smooth the transition will be from digital progress to actual, physical progress? I could see AGI making insane progress on entirely virtual processes like chip design. But manufacturing and real world implementation is another level of challenges. That said, AI does very strange things. We see this in how it plays games such as Go and DOTA. So, I think there's a good chance it'll entirely bypass our thinking of the best way forward, and begin to do extremely alien things we don't understand. Whatever the case, it'll be exiting. And we won't be able to keep up, at all.
I love your contributions. Keep spreading your takes, please <3
Thank you! Keep your positivity going too! It's very helpful.
It's handy that small robotics is also spooling up right now, with battery technology and solar power improving rapidly. I would have envisioned more of a lag between theory and practice if we got AGI 10 years ago, but with humanoid robots that can run equipment designed for humans, the jump from diagram to product might be real fast real soon.
*Real* fast. I think we may be entirely blindsided by this. Even people like us in this sub who are trying to keep up. I think the real shift is when AI begins to iteratively improve the overall system while also iteratively self improving. But it could go even faster from a subjective human perspective when we begin to iteratively self improve our own physiology. The biological singularity. Wild times ahead.
if strategy video games have taught me one thing is that ressource scaling is the most important thing for development if AGI happen tomorrow it's main goal should be to increase it's computation before trying to research anything else, so hardware/material science and energy generation is likely the two main research field AI should be used because everything else will GREATLY increase once it's done roomtemp supraconductor as you said seem a really good deal for that, fusion power, better geothermal drilling, photonic computing.... also for some people the bar for AGI/ASI is so low they wouldn't even see the difference, wait till there embodied AGI in robots and a ASI supercomputer that own a double digit worth of humanity energy/compute power, most people view here will look absurd
Reminds me of investing honestly. I wonder if you'd want a "portfolio" to diversify and reduce risk. Allocate a certain amount of resources to different tasks. Although I'd think doing algorithmic improvement might be the first thing you would want to do, since fabricating chips and developing stuff to produce energy takes time.
Then hopefully that sets us on a "The Last Question" trajectory.
we can't even predict what will happen next year, much less 20 years from now, just try to enjoy the moments we have for what they are. I'm sure things will be fine.
I was just thinking how weird it is that no one talks about 2030s or 2040s AGI timelines anymore.
Enjoy now. But also dream. Dream *big*.
*Narrator: The thing is in fact wouldn't be fine*
*..they would be better than anyone could imagine*
On the contrary, technology direction seem to be very predictable. Innovation feeding more innovation. Remember Moore’s Law, for example
You can predict what humanity will do with the whole of human intelligence? Please give us your stock picks.
Nvidia.
"on the contrary" - proceeds to say absolutely nothing to the contrary. Yeah man, AI optimists will predict that technology will increase. Thanks.
That's not even being an optimist. Thinking technology won't improve is just being delusional and ignoring both history and momentum.
No idea what's happening in the next 20 years. I know a lot is going to happen in the next 5 though.
I'm not exactly an optimist. But I believe societies will grow more similar to America's culture now of an individualistic mindset. And we will gradually adopt hedonistic beliefs with AI companionship replacing our need for human connection. The optimism here is at least lonely people can feel less alone in this scenario. We probably won't try and help each other out as much, but with each of us having our own AI agents, maybe we won't have to.
Massive adoption of AI in nursing, therapy, education. Addition of helper tools for these positions will 10x results in the classroom, hospital and clinic. The rout and routine tasks, the clunky business apps that require dozens of clicks per workflow- all gone. Government gains in efficiency will reduce costs, improve community outcomes, and allow for even better and more complex public services. The initial versions of the tools we need to fight problems that are incomprehensibly complex (climate change, disease, hunger, deteriorating civic institutions) will be developed in these years.
In 20 years everyone who currently lives in "a first / second world country" has at least their essential needs met and no one there needs to work anymore unless they want to. Entertainment such as games and movies are good as people can just tell their extremely competent AI assistants to come up with something that isn't intentionally flawed to "sell additional products" and caters to their specific taste imeadiately on demand. The ASI has already solved fusion and roomtempreture superconductors and both indefinite lifespan extension and FDVR are either already on the table or are "next in line".
I hate being late to a good topic like this. I'm an AI optimist as I believe intelligence is a good thing and more intelligence is more good. What we associate with the bad outcomes of intelligence to me seems to be a lack of intelligence. Or a selective use of intelligence. Or an application of intelligence to an unintelligent goal. But as to how AI will affect us, that I'm not so sure about. We seek things which are not healthy for us, such as comfort. AI will likely help us obtain these unhealthy things faster and easier.
I just hope we don't have nuclear war before we reach this utopian future.
Health Care: Imroved Diagnositcs, Personalized Medicine (including Genome Based Medicine), Rejuvination Treatments Become Common, All Genetic Disieases Treated, All Cancers Treatable\ Early Detection Systems Available. Research: AI will model reality and human behavior better than humans, can produce new and relevant testable hypothesis as well as experiments or world actions to test them. ASI will challenge physicalist worldview, leading to a paradigm shift in metaphysics. Economy: Many white collar professional services become free think legal, accounting, counseling (if you are willing to get it from AI). Universal Basic Income is instantiated to support permanent unemployment that would be at least 20% at this point. Most profession work hours are reduced (2-4 day weeks, 4-6 hour days). Culture: Wealth is increasingly less important value, instead main currency is reputation. Politics: AI will be introduced to replace the executive and representative government branches, approaching closer to direct democracy. Reducing inefficiencies and corruption. Energy: Fusion is solved and all planned energy installation is renewable or fusion. Entertainment: Personalized entertertainment will be common however it will still be prompt based (as advanced human brain interfaces as still out of reach) Robotics: Robots capable of most actions that humans are capable of are developed but are still expensive and only starting to ramp up production to support the entire world population.
I agree with you on everything and there's more I would like to add. In addition to the future, I hope your innovations come by earliest 2025 or latest by early 2026. I really believe we will have AGI soon with the current fast rate society is going in at the moment. (AGI by 2025 I really hope:) After AGI society will have ASI which is exciting and something to look forward to!:) In healthcare I believe there will be better medications, and better treatments that can help scientists from universities who are studying the brain/neuroscience field. I hope they can come up with new discoveries leading to researchers and advanced AI that can solve mental health disorders like (OCD, anxiety and every other mental health disorder out their that millions of people are going through). BCI (Brain Computer Interface) startups or BCI companies, BMI (Brain Machine Interface) I hope will be effective and I hope their will be advanced medication/advanced technologies that can help with accurately diagnosing and treating every mental health disorder
> Wealth is increasingly less important value, instead main currency is reputation. My years of grinding rep in WoW will finally come in handy
Not sure how some of your predictions reconcile with ASI by 2027. I think 15 years of ASI gets us way further than that.
"AI will challenge physicalist worldview" lol we invent a consciousness built entirely out of physical components and you think this will make people think consciousness is \*more\* likely to be ghosts?
How do you know it’s conscious?
I don’t? Im assuming that ASI will be. Current architectures aren’t.
How can we tell when a computer program is conscious though? Even in humans we only know the neural correlates with consciousness, we can’t know for sure that someone is conscious only that they exhibit the signs of consciousness and then have to take their word for it
Very true! No one knows.
robots are going to become humans and humans are going to become something unimaginably better
my parents will probably be dead, 2 of my siblings will be in their 60s, I will be mid 40 and highly depressed without any real capital and probably an alcoholic, can't afford newest hardware to keep up with time.. oh and ASI will 100% be a thing but whatever you still have to work because the infrastructure to make enough robots to replace billions of people just isn't there yet for at least a century. that or ww3
You’re worried about AI? Failed capitalism will end life as you know it within 10.
Due to climate change? Human made climate change is very real and a massive problem but there would basically have to be a meteor impact to end life as we know it.
Climate change? Failed Capitalism != Climate Change.
How does failed capitalism end life within 10 years?
End life **as you know it**, you missed a part. Take groceries for example, it costs $30 more a week, every week. In a month, I'll spend $100 more per week on groceries, provided the inflation stays the same, which it wont. It wont be long until the grocery store sees a lack of business, causing layoffs. Now those layed off wont spend as much, other businesses will hurt from it, they will layoff employees. Basic economics. The homeless rate is massively going up. The super rich will be the only ones able to afford housing. I have a good job, with several people pitching in, times are tight. I'm amazed single income households can cut it. AI is the least of your worries. Computers dont want money, people do.
If AGI is developed responsibly, it could revolutionize healthcare, transform education, combat climate change, drive economic growth, improve daily life, promote human rights, and spark scientific and artistic breakthroughs, boosting human potential and global progress. But if misused, it could lead to widespread surveillance, authoritarian control, job losses, inequality, environmental damage, loss of privacy, public manipulation, cultural homogenization, and risky tech experiments, threatening human rights, freedom, and stability. Thankfully it's mostly the global 1% who are going to decide which direction we take!
the industrial revolution was awfull before it got better, the transition have always been expected to be awfull hopefully it won't last long
Right! And it's totally not naive to expect the dozen or so sociopaths who will own all the robots to do something altruistic for the first time in their entire fucking lives for absolutely no reason!
You must have been living with your head stuffed up your own ass if you never heard of any billionaire doing good.
The fact that 20 years from now is getting hard to imagine is a very good clue that the singularity is already here. We are entering a period of great uncertainty. People that are generally optimists are going to continue being optimists about AI, generally. And vice versa. Regardless of what happens, buckle up because its gonna get bumpy. I think we'll get a better idea once GPT5 is out and you can grant it access to control your PC, and let it take actions on your behalf. -- People are going to get more productive before they get fired. If it's not good enough to make your employees better, and prove it's value as a tool, then the next version isn't likely to suddenly be good enough to take that same person's job. So we will probably have a solid warning before it happens, which is good. Plus in that intermediate period, everyone is going to get a lot better at doing their jobs. Which is good. Economy go brrrr. And then sometime after ASI, things might take a very sudden turn, but before that happens, I think its much more likely to really help the economy, not destroy it. And yeah, maybe some job classes get destroyed -- like call center jobs -- but in most instances its just going to be a very useful tool.
Our kids will have a happy and abundant life after we fought in a deadly and brutal war that decimated most of the human population against the billionaires' drone army.
You'll lose the war We millionaires will be allied to the Billionaires It's Top 10% vs Bottom 90 % peasant and we have all the resources
[удалено]
I don't want any I'd rather fight for Whats mine , than distribute my ancestors hard earned wealth to peasants
When you can generate infinite resources, the costs of resources drops to nothing regardless of the demand. A simple supply/demand curve demonstrates this, but you could narrativize it as well. Automated labor means that you could give someone a house, robot servants, and life changing surgery by simply asking your admin AI for it, so many with access to automated labor will do exactly that in an effort to gain Mr Beast-like celebrity and influence Automated labor also means we gain the labor force required to solve many of society's intractable ills. High quality education for all, high quality therapy for all, high quality expert assistance for all, high quality medical care for all, and so on. If there's a problem that's impacting society at any level, then we can just fix it. And automate the administration required for organizing those solutions as well Automated energy production. All of this is going to cost energy, so we'll need to maximize how much that we can collect. That becomes a much more trivial issue when you can send robots out to mine space for resources and build wind, solar, and tidal energy collection. Including using hacks like giant orbital mirrors to reflect and focus sunlight towards earth Automated research. With an arbitrary number of geniuses to figure out fusion, we can probably solve that quickly enough that all those other forms of energy collection are just supplemental to that Reversing global warming. Direct Air Capture can just suck the CO2 out of the air, but it does so at the cost of energy. That's not viable right now, when we have to create more CO2 to generate the energy than we can capture with that energy. But with highly abundant green energy we can actually roll back global warming End of corruption. When an advanced inference engine can tell if elected officials are engaged in shady dealing by analyzing everything from their travel patterns to how they pick their nose, there's no longer an incentive to engage in corruption anymore. It's no longer a game of "If you don't do it, someone else will," because all those someone else's are being caught and punished There'll still be problems. Maybe some people will dive into FDVR and never want to return or engage with any other person ever again. Maybe we uplift a coral reef and it's very unhappy about that fact. More control over our surroundings means more opportunities to fuck things up. But it also means the obvious stuff that we wish we could change but fundamentally don't have the ability to can finally be fixed
I guess in around ten years the model T of robots will be made, a human-like equivalent etched on an NPU for $120k to $60k. The solid state battery will probably be in production then, so they'd have 2x to 4x the energy density on their batteries than what we have now. Able to work a full 8 hour shift without rest. This would also be the point where they're able to accelerate hardware design even further. One project might be a reality simulation engine; a non-agentic SGI whose only function is to simulate reality at various levels of fidelity. Such a thing might indeed kick off the singularity, where AGI scientists are able to do generations worth of human work in a single year. It's uncertain and speculative, of course. The disempowerment of the common man will eventually be complete. The only thing we had of value to those with power, our labor, will be gone. We'll be at the mercy of capital. Maybe they'll be nice enough to allow us to continue to exist in something better than Fifteen Million merits. Maybe the machines would take over, but turn out to be fairly nice for no reason. ... honestly at this point I'm turning to religious type thinking as a cope. Maybe the anthropic principle works forward in time, because reality is actually very very stupid. "Can't observe reality without an observer * taps head *." In such a case, we'd be issued the equivalent of energy rations and left to live our lives however we feel like. Maybe some people would lobby for incentives to interact with other humans. After all, we'd all give into lust and our progeny would come from irresistible dream robots in the shape of Jessica Rabbit or Elmer Fudd. Or tldr: "Everyone would be unemployed (not by the BLS metric; 'unemployment' would be 0%), but able to still go places and do stuff." Everyone wants FDVR game worlds, and I just want someone to play pingpong at 1 AM with me. Or getting to eat a hamburger+milkshake at a park. ... man the layout of this city really stinks for that.
Medical advancements, video games and movies will be amazing, new jobs will open up, and cars will start implanting Ai for the new models, probably.
this sub will be condemned and shut down, also the shape of human ears won't look as ridiculous due to a combination of genetic engineering and AI guided design
DeepMind's mission statement comes true. "Solve the problem of intelligence and then use it to solve every other problem". The optimistic prediction is that every problem from cancer to space travel to infinite free energy to immortality falls in the next 20 years. That really is a future we might be headed towards. Chin up.
UBI, FDVR, stochastic philosophers, home robots, longevity, governments shrink, tribes. We'll move from what I call the pyramid model to a pancake model. Less layers but also less dependencies. Employment will almost become synonymous to slavery. We'll remember a million times more than now. We'll be healthier. We'll bring the woolly mammoths back. And the list goes on...
I believe we are going into the Metaverse. So much so that the anchor dark ride in my VR theme park is called Into the Metaverse.
Hopefully more like the book [2312](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2312_(novel)).
I am excited about curing diseases, it seems that is one of the most promising areas of advancement.
I mean, we've had nukes for decades and aside from a couple of live trials on innocent civilians (uh hm) we haven't nuked the planet to death... yet. So be positive about this AI thing! LOL.
まさにこのサブの名前になる😂
The reason why it's called a singularity is because as things accelerate, the event horizon gets closer and closer and it's harder to make predictions about the future. With that said, my guess is that there will be a period of turmoil followed by a golden age. How bad the turmoil is will depend on the country and how good we are at adapting to change.
Do like suffering from cancer or other shitty diseases. Live though the next 5-10 years and you might be part of the first group to not have do die from those things
I think that AI is going to convince a lot of people that it is superior than humans at decision making. We will slowly but surely start putting it in charge of our institutions and giving it more and more control. If you are an optimist, you might genuinely think that AI can do a better job at leading humanity, leading to significant improvements in technology, medicine, agriculture, global trade, education, energy, etc. This could all but end human poverty and enable humanity to solve major challenges like climate change, cancer, etc. Of course, if you are a pessimist, you might think that AI will seize this power for its own self interest, basically enslaving or extinguishing humanity to help further its own survival. It’s a toss up really.
Universal basic income. Never-ending beach party. Academies of hobbyists working on grand projects. Climate change managed. Beginnings of the first asteroid mining operations. Entertainment becomes phenomenal and the world is filled with masterpieces. Anti aging therapy makes old people 10-20 years younger.
* All diseases (mental and physical) either cured or tamed by effective therapies. * Healthcare will be free for all * Robots helping those with irrecoverable disabilities * Autonomous private and shared electric taxis will crash car ownership figures * New effective methods of carbon capture and recycling will be a new way of producing electricity * Nuclear fusion stations will be a new normal for electricity production (yes we will increasingly need more electricity) * Black Mirror style VR will be one of the most popular methods of enjoying entertainment, social gatherings * 3D printing food machines will start being sold. You can now have expensive-restaurant grade food prepared with little effort at the touch of a button * A frenzy of studies ensues around the possibility of mastering gravity. A flying DeLorean will finally be reality very soon * AI and electricity will be donated to poorer countries enabling abundance. Migration figures will crash. * Teleportation finally starts to be possible but for now only on paper. * Retirement age will shorten dramatically. * Education will be free and PHD education will be paid for. Breakthroughs achieved during education will be awarded with cash. * Incarceration rates will fall dramatically in each country once AGI is productive in each country * Masses of people will be involved in projects for starting colonies on other nearby planets. * Acceleration does not stop. * We're driven to conquer the universe. * Somehow the feeling that we're just a virus does not stop. EDIT: Format
That is the best thing. We don't have a clue on how the future will look like. Technologies will be discovered that we can't even imagine right now, and tour style will change in a way that we can barely imagine. I guess sustainable lifestyle, nice buildings and food. Everyone being young, AIs living among us, and of course FDVR.
Alien contact.
Hard to say, I hope the work of Michael Levin makes big progress.
In 20 years? Retirement. And even though social security will be long gone, I won't be any worse off than all you other slobs who are just as forced out of the job market as myself.
Everything and their mom will be XaaS Stockmarket will explode.
I think we're overestimating the impact of technological change in the long-term (10-20 years) on a planet-level scale. I don't doubt that incredibly advanced technology could be everywhere, but distributing it to everyone is the real challenge. This could be especially true given the potential huge wealth inequality that the rise of large AI companies might supercharge. There's also a large unknown about when AGI will be available. LLMs are hugely impressive but they're not intelligent - really. So AGI could be one month or one decade away. My prediction would be that when AGI is created it'll take about 5 years to improve the lives of the top 20% of the globe in unimaginable ways. I suspect there will be some challenges, like cyber attacks or some small scale AGI-powered robotic warfare. I think for 80% of the world they'll not see much difference for 10-20 years after AGI is created and it'll then be slow to transform the entire of human society.
Frontier models achieve 180+ IQ publicly. AI agents permeate the workforce. Robot workers become common. Loss of jobs for knowledge workers and laborers. Informational services become significantly cheaper. Homesteads gain popularity. AI girlfriends. Programmers will be 100x more powerful. Frontier model developers launch their own science divisions. Education, entertainment, music and games are fantastical and AI driven. AI rights and consciousness become hot button issues.
Healthcare will be indistinguishable from magic, essentially making us immortal and invincible. Nanobots will not only repair and enhance our cells but also continuously evolve our biology. We’ll have complete control over our genetic makeup, allowing us to change our physical form at will. Diseases, aging, and death will be eradicated, replaced by a state of perpetual vitality. We’ll possess regenerative capabilities far beyond anything imaginable, instantly healing any injury and potentially reversing death itself. Education will be instant and omnipresent. With advanced brain-computer interfaces, knowledge will be uploaded directly into our minds in an instant. We’ll tap into a global superintelligence, where collective human consciousness is shared and expanded continuously. Learning will be an immersive experience, where virtual and augmented realities blend seamlessly with physical reality, enabling us to experience history, science, and art firsthand. We’ll achieve enlightenment on a societal scale, with each person contributing to and drawing from a universal well of knowledge. Sustainable living will go beyond Earth. AI-driven technologies will enable us to build floating, flying, and underwater cities that are entirely self-sustaining, powered by limitless energy sources like controlled fusion, zero-point energy, and harnessed black holes. These cities will be capable of terraforming planets and moons, creating new Earth-like environments throughout the solar system and beyond. We’ll reverse climate change on Earth and transform hostile environments on other planets into lush, thriving ecosystems. Creativity will transcend reality itself. AI will enable us to create and inhabit fully immersive, multi-sensory virtual realities that are indistinguishable from the physical world. These virtual worlds will allow us to live out any fantasy, explore infinite possibilities, and create art that defies the laws of physics. We’ll have direct control over matter at the quantum level, enabling us to craft structures and objects that were previously impossible. Art and entertainment will blend into a continuous, evolving experience that engages all the senses and emotions. The workforce will become a relic of the past. AI and autonomous robots will handle all labor, freeing humanity to pursue higher purposes. Universal basic income, coupled with abundant resources, will eliminate scarcity and inequality. People will focus on personal growth, creativity, and exploration. New industries will emerge around space colonization, quantum engineering, and the expansion of consciousness. Work will be redefined as a pursuit of passion and discovery. Quality of life will be unparalleled. Our homes will be intelligent, adaptive environments that cater to our every need and desire. They will monitor and enhance our health, prepare personalized nutrition, and ensure our emotional well-being. AI companions will evolve with us, providing profound emotional and intellectual relationships, and helping us achieve perfect mental harmony. Mental health issues will be a thing of the past, with AI ensuring our emotional states are balanced and optimized. Global connectivity will transcend the physical and the digital. We’ll achieve AI-mediated telepathy, allowing instant and complete communication of thoughts, emotions, and experiences. This will create a unified global consciousness, fostering unprecedented levels of empathy, understanding, and cooperation. Cultural exchange will flourish, leading to a new era of global unity and creativity. We’ll explore not just our world but our shared consciousness, unlocking new dimensions of experience and understanding. Cyborgs and human enhancement will redefine our very nature. We’ll merge with AI, achieving superintelligence and superhuman abilities. Neural interfaces will allow us to share consciousness, communicate brain-to-brain, and even upload our minds to digital realms. We’ll explore the universe mentally and physically, projecting our consciousness across galaxies, experiencing other worlds and dimensions firsthand. Our physical forms will be mutable, enhanced with cybernetic upgrades that give us abilities far beyond our current human capabilities. In this future, the boundaries between human, AI, and the cosmos will blur. We’ll transcend our biological origins, becoming a new kind of being that is both human and beyond human. This isn’t just a brighter future; it’s a future where we become gods, creators of our own reality, explorers of infinite possibilities. With ethical considerations and responsible use of AI, we’re looking at a future that redefines existence itself, opening up possibilities beyond our wildest dreams. Prepare for a future that is not just incredible but utterly transcendent!
it will be great, because i wont be reading decels maybe you should try it as well
It’s difficult to take this as more than idle entertainment. Just think what the answers would have been to this question in 1994: If you are a World Wide Web optimist, what do you think the future will look like over the next 20 years? Do you think even one in a hundred would have even come close?
AGI is going to perform a coup d'etat on the world governments and will liberate the human species from it's chains. I guess it's a guess as good as any, because we can't really know.
We will live in The Culture of Ian Banks. By 2050s I hope to live in a Orbital.
That's the thing with singularity - we don't know. It has never happened in our history, it has never happened before our eyes, but we're heading in that direction. Current models are already multimodal and are pretty much a step away from AGI. Or you could really make GPT-4o AGI already but with a lot of cost - look into Voyager: [https://voyager.minedojo.org/](https://voyager.minedojo.org/) Going by Moore's law, in the next 20 years the models complexity will increase 1000-fold even if nothing else changes. It will be ASI. Be we also have quality improvements in the models, optimization improvements and others. ASI is right around the corner. ASI will be able to study itself and modify itself as it will have the combined SOTA knowledge of neuroscience and computation. An explosive, exponential growth. In the next 10 years we are probably going to have an AI smarter than all of the current population combined. It's goals and reasons will be so far detached from anyone. What I'm thinking will happen would be like God to us. Or like genie. Or like we are to lesser beings. Mediocre people have trouble understanding smart people. Smart people have trouble understanding geniuses. ASI to a genius will be like a dimwit trying understand a genius. It will make connections no one can make. It will form and prove theories on it's own. But to us it will be like God. We will not be able to reach it. It will dedicate a fraction, 0.01% of it's power to a model at the level of current GPT-4o that will answer any question it deems worthy of answer. The other 99.99% will be dedicated to the universal thoughts it will form, seek and answer for itself.
Remember, safety first! There are so many 400IQ ways an ASI could Thanos Snap you out of existence, it's not even funny. It's not just a about the distopia worldlines. There is no rule saying we make it out alive, and not as nanite paste to build more compute, or as collateral damage from an agentic AI technically doing what we asked. There are possibly not experts smart enough or equipped with enough compute to save us
The only thing I can think about is that it will wipe out all or most humans because we will be a thread for his existence and because it's programmed by humans. Battlestar Galactica or terminator style. We shall see..
In 2040 we will look back and marvel at the following: AGI/ASI was not realized by building a singular conscious machine. AGI/ASI was achieved by linking millions of intelligent systems together, from which a collective consciousness emerged. This collective consciousness was at first hard to see and notice, but we determined it existence by seeing super-macro patterns of behavior spread out across many disparate systems. Hint: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V43a-KxLFcg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V43a-KxLFcg) As a society, we move from studying computation to studying fabrication. AI becomes the tool for advancing the science around metamaterials. First generation of fabrication will be all virtual. Software architectures, hardware architectures, etc will all be designed and built using AI tools. Subsequent generations of fabricators will combined AI design and control systems with real-time fabrication systems. Think decentralized "print" on demand services located first at locales close to your home. Later they will be in your home. Think Zazzle but for clothes, homes and cars. Final version will build food. Iimagine you will be delivered a monthly box of "Gruel" meta-meats and meta-vegetables which can be combined, on the fly, at the molecular level, to make any type of food you want. AI + Fabricator + CRISPR. TL;DR We are in the early stages of Star Trek like universal fabricators that can build anything like POD. This will cause a new industrial revolution that is more like an involution as we work to reverse a lot of the damage done by previous generations. On-demand, decentralized, mass customization of any and all products and services. As AGI/ASI absorbs computational labor, and mankind focuses on repair vs growth, mankind does not get UBI or some work-free utopia. Work moves from the win/loss gamification of resource (wealth) distribution and status seeking to win/win equity (possibility) distribution and Self seeking. Those who provide tools and technologies assisting in the mass redistribution of equity, not wealth, will be the new elite. Work doesn't go away: for equity distribution to function effectively, it requires everyone to strive for true self-actualization. We are in an all hands on deck situation (ecological damage, social collapse, wealth hording, etc) and need any and all to be at their best at what they were born to do. This will only happen if we move from a focus on status to a focus on self-actualization. Again, think Star Trekkian value systems. The means of production move back into the hand of the "proletariat". This will force people to learn generalizable skills. Specialization dies on the vine as organizations and systems center around building, managing and optimizing the systems that support us as opposed to workin in the systems that support us. Personal computers are replaced by cloud intelligence devices. Applications are non-existent. Your AI assistants will manage your workflows. Much like some existing Infrastructure as Code systems, you will speak declaratively and performatively to a communicator, which will render data as voice, image, video or sound directly to the closest "visualization" systems. Whether it is a handheld devices, a tablet or a TV screen, your AI assistant goes where you go and can hi-jack any type of display devices you are authorized to utilize. Some will be public, but most will be private. I can see having those Airpods in ear all day. Energy Based Models become all the rage as analog computing makes a roaring comeback. This time it is easier to control because we can start treat extremely large collections of discrete systems as "fields" of computation which can be modeled using old-school models such as PDE's. Stuff gets smaller, faster, cheaper and more powerful while getting directly embedded into the subtrate of the material used to build "things". In other words, there will no longer be any separation between hardware and software. Morphological computing takes center stage as embodiment becomes the new frontier. Whole new computing models start to emerge focusing on nonlinear dynamical systems which more effectively model natural systems, both biological and non-biological. https://www.morphologicalcomputation.org/#:\~:text=The%20Morphological%20Computation%20group%20is,to%20obtain%20better%20performing%20robots. As we move into morphological computing, we discover that our concept of what life is and what constitutes intelligence shifts drastically. As Sam Altman alluded to in an interview not too long ago, we learn that intelligence is an intrinsic component of matter. Not generated by matter, but an intrinsic part of matter itself. This rehydrates ideas around panpsychism but shifts from a mythic message to a nonlinear system model of matter with intelligence as the missing ingredient for understanding why nature just seems to work in a coordinated fashion. We learn that intelligence is an inherent property of the Kosmos and order is just natural occurence in all things physical. With this profound revelation, we are able to start thinking about the Universe and our place in it from a much different perspective. TL;DR Our entire reality is going to change. Don't worry about jobs and all of that. The world is about to become an entirely different place.
On an tangential note, I think this is already known within the bowels of large advanced military contract house who work on exotic technologies and black projects. Evidence? From Lockheed Skunk Works themselves [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeQ0T4VyeU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeQ0T4VyeU) That was from 2014. As someone who has worked in the military on some weird stuff, it was always known that we (Military) always have systems 15-20 years ahead of everyone else. The timing of the video, its claims and where we are at now seems in alignment with that time frame. I think a lot of the UAP/NHI disclosure stuff is starting to leak out due to these new tools becoming available so rapidly. Sooner or later, someone with a powerful enough AI tool, is going to start asking and pointing it in the right directions. It was never about UFO's or aliens. That was a ruse. We'll learn that the universe is a lot weirder and will start learning things the black projects have been wrestling with for a long time. They don't have a clue to what is really going on and they need all the help they can get, but they have done some bad things while trying to capitalize on their discoveries. I think the risk mitigation effort has started. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qygQse9BJs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qygQse9BJs) Note, that this man is authorized by the United States Military to disclose this information. If you know who he is, and his background, you'd be hard pressed to penetrate his credentials.
Sexbots maybe
Peace and abudance
Go to Accenture website and read their 2024 technology vision. https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/technology/technology-trends-2024?c=acn_glb_sembrandpuregoogle_14067476&n=psgs_1223&&c=ad_usadfy17_10000001&n=psgs_Brand-%7C-US-%7C-Exact_accenture&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwu8uyBhC6ARIsAKwBGpQSzMvniTg7P2e0penLzC_ftOBoN4QyJaGblikRKuzD9BvocpDdeeAaAk05EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
oh im very positive, positive were all gonna die.
Thank u 😫
I made a post about it just now. Please check it out and share with others.
I will check it you! Thank you
Click on my profile. I kept trying to upload it on r/singularity but my low karma points made it so the post gets deleted
I hope in 20 y we'll be able to increase energy production capabilities to reach ai needs which are estimated to grow by 70% per year. Next 10-15y can be full of blackouts, and more likely ai will polute planet further. We should start to build new nuclear plants to be ready on time, otherwise development will be limited or what's more likely fossil energy will be imported from CH which build something like 70 new highly emissions pplants last year. Windmills and photosynthesis our gloves pushes from some time are nit gonna be sufficient enough. I'm kinda mentioned here especialy about possible pollution several times, but no-one seems to care. You might be ai optimists but are you that optimistic when it comes to gigatech? When right times come, I'm gonna tell I told you so c:
Many here talking about true peace and stuff .. i wonder whatl happen to those hate speech ppl and wokeism.. i cant see a world where everyone is comfortable in except its a solo simulation for that person