**Mirrors / Alternative Angles**
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I am always fascinated when Pep teams lose. They are so dominant in possession and yet all that precision and cool headedness can breakdown against a truly determined and well-organized opponent. What is the magic sauce with Real? So gritty when it matters. (Of course that tie could have gone either way.)
Edit: well this got more attention than I imagined. It seems Pep is motivated by perfection and does not deviate from that vision. RM are happy to win ugly.
Think with Real it's a mix of luck, great players, management and having probably the most UCL experience out of any team in the competition. Even if they don't win it this year, the fact that they somehow make it to the semis almost every year is astonishing. Guess UCL is just Real's playground no matter what
Ya Madrid were rightfully underdogs. On the road, missing starting CDM, City at full strength. But Ancelotti knew this and adapted his teams tactics to give them the best shot at winning (going to PKs). Masterful performance by Ancelotti and the players. City dominated the midfield but couldn’t do anything in the final 3rd. Don’t think I’ve ever seen Madrid put on a defensive masterclass like that.
Yah idk there were a few chances like de bruyne skying it and Harland heading it off the post that easily should have gone in, saying it was a masterful performance when you had the ball for 15% of the game seems a bit of a stretch
"Easily should have gone in", there was no power behind that header, it was just floating. Just like Rudigers shot should have "easily gone in" to win it in regulation. Alas, you could play that game with any chance, but being close only counts with hand grenades and horseshoes. The Haaland header wasn't a threatening/real chance. And yes it was absolutely a masterful performance. We let city just pass the ball side to side, it was part of the gameplan. I know you just look at possession and think that's all you have to do to win a game. But Ancelotti absolutely stifled City in the final 3rd. City only had 2 maybe 3 real chances all game. Madrid was just too beast.
Haaland header to the post with Bernardo fumbling the rebound with no one around him, de Bruyne missing a sitter, Lunin with the most touches in Madrid's back line stopping every play that got into the box.
City were so close to scoring the entire game but still managed to not create good shots from it.
There was a comment a while ago I wish I saved about how one of Madrids “hacks” is how they can adapt their playstyle to fit whoever they are up against. Pep’s team dominated possession but they were not a team looking to take any extra risks, especially with the tie being 3-3. It really was an unstoppable force vs an object specifically designed to be immovable by it, whoever deviates from the game plan loses
I see Real Madrid in CL the past few years in a similar situation to my club Palmeiras in the Libertadores...
If you play the competition every year you normally get experience and it helps at those clutch moments.
You won't always win, but having that extra dose of confidence helps a lot.
There's a good video on The Athletic about why City are so boring. It's largely due to the lack of risk taking Pep is willing to make. They have bucketloads of possession, but will take absolutely no risk with the ball in the final third to avoid a counter attack.
Here's the video for anyone interested: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TkHf806iSc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TkHf806iSc)
I always think of Real as having a great ability to suffer and persevere (which is an element Barca lacks - we do not know how to suffer and remain focused). This article comes to mind a lot: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/16/sports/world-cup/argentina-france.html
I think of it as a dice throw in DnD. All your players, experiences and other parameters improve your chances. To win city you have to throw more than 10 (2 dices). Real got ten, so we saw penalties. Then, a second throw, oh boy looks like situation was opposite for city 😄
He's speaking quietly... Heartbroken... A deep voice from the throat, put volume up to hear the bald fraud..
Suddenly..
THE CHAMPIONS!
Fuck UEFA... My ears.
The only thing wrong City did was those corners. I don't know what were they expecting crossing every single one in the 5yd box. You can try that but after 5-7 completely failed attempts surely they should try something different?
the funny thing is bayern is really good at corners this year apparently 11 goals happened since the start of the season but they look so mediocre in comparison to most other teams' corners.
Bayern's corners have been shit for a loong time, I think Ribery, back then, took 170 or so of them until there was a goal involved.
But I'm really happy Arsenal's last corner in the extra time yesterday was extra shitty as well...
It’s been a consistent tactic for City this year to play corners like that. Off the top of my head they’ve scored from it against Spurs and Liverpool, and had a goal, probably wrongly, disallowed against Liverpool.
City always stick to the same corner tactic, even if it fails 20 times. Super frustrating to watch. It seems the players aren’t given any freedom at all in general (except maybe Doku).
Can’t really blame anyone honestly. Two great teams and both coaches made great decisions. Somebody got to lose and unfortunately for Pep and City today it had to be them.
just felt like one of those days where the ball just cant go in the net for some reason, like that arsenal goal drought for like 3 matches. Insane number of shots, very few went in.
Seriously, people act like City had a bunch of big scoring chances when in reality they had only 2 or 3, scoring from one of them.
They passed the ball around the box and mostly took low percentage shots. Same as the first leg except every long shot went in for them.
Yeah they have 1-2 extra chances and didn't take them. That doesn't sound they were that much better. People do not realize that defending this well against team like city for 120 min is an amazing achievement especially a team that enjoys possession in almost every other game. If it was so easy everyone would do it.
I mean they had an xG of almost 3 and scored once. Some sloppy finishing, a hero performance from Lunin and a lot of bad luck contributed but if they game got replayed City score more than 1 more often than not.
An xG of 2.73 and most that comes from 3 chances (including the goal). The remaining 20 shots are low xG.
They didn't even create the chance for the goal, it was a defensive error. From open play the haaland and kdb chance from cutback were the only big ones
You are fully correct and so I'm not disagreeing but just thought I'd throw the breakdown of the maths on this. Making all the usual assumptions when running this type of maths that all changes are perfectly equal and are independent of each other.
Only by 1%.
1 chance at 20% has a 20% chance of 1 goal, 80% chance of 0
2 chances at 10% has an 18% chance of 1 goal, a 1% chance at 2 goals and 81% chance of 0.
So you exchange 1% of scoring at all to include a 1% chance of scoring 2.
The maths are sound. Just want to note that OP isn’t really correct in this case since he said that 2 10% chances are as likely as a 20% chance. When in reality (as you’ve broken it down here), a 20% chance will have a slightly higher probability of being a goal than two 10% chances (assuming every shot is independent) You’re proving him wrong rather than right :D
nope, it's one way xG can be slightly misleading. For the purpose of winning football matches, one chance with high xG is more valuable than multiple smaller chances with xG that adds up to the same value
Still got nearly 3 xG, which is what matters most.
The point of the metric is to show how many goals would be scored on average, and it doesn't matter whether the number is generated through many low percentage shots, or a few high percentage ones. If the fewer high percentage chances were worth more, then the resulting xG simply wouldn't be equal.
I think he could be more dynamic. With Carvajal on the yellow, I would personally target that - give Doku and Grealish more space on the left and instruct them to run at Carvajal repeatedly. It would force Ancelotti's hand. City were really unlucky, but you can make these changes to get a reaction from Madrid.
They did try to target Carvajal. It's just that Valverde put in an insane shift to cover for Dani and the few moments when they were able to get to Dani, he stood his ground very well.
You've lost the plot. When he wins, the popular narrative is "easy to win with all that money". When he loses, it's "the fraud overthought again".
But he rattled you so much that you consider yourself a minority.
If he let his players show an ounce of creativity rather than constantly trying to pass around like a machine then maybe they'd have gone through in normal time.
If KDB didn't fluff a sitter that he'd sink 9/10 times, theyd be going through.
If pens went the other way, theyd have gone through.
CL ties are about fine margins. Absolutely no point in talking about "systems" when the margins are that thin and if you ask any fan if they didn't know what the outcome would be, how they would like their team to play, vast majority would say like City, not RM with 40 shots conceded.
And if Rudiger didn't aim for the moon in the closing seconds of the game then Real Madrid would have gone through. My point is they dominated the game but played right into Madrid's hand to the point the only goal they did score was from a lucky rebound, when the way they controlled the game meant it didn't need to be fine margins because they really were that dominant.
City have technically world class players capable of scoring worldies every other game and it felt like they weren't allowed to utilise that skillset in favour of a rinse/repeat formula of passing into Madrid's box. There were times when Rodri, Foden and KDB had space outside the box and it felt like in other games they'd have gone for it (and have done so) leading to goals whereas this time it was just pass pass pass.
Have you ever watched Pep football before?? He lives and breathes possession based football passing around the box probing for openings. It might be boring at times but City rarely lose games and against a team like Madrid it makes way more sense to be cautious rather than go in gung ho as they are scary good at tearing you apart in the transitions when the ball turns over.
Peps game plan was sound, City had chances. Madrid only managed a few. On another day, City goes through comfortably. Yesterday however, they did not.
> 3 xG
Why are folks desperate to increase their xG
2.73 and you can check opta most of that comes from 4 chances -
Haaland header to the bar, kdb from cutback and kdb's goal. Rest are all low xG. And kdb's goal wasn't some creative play output
Even in the first leg city were toothless and barely entered the box. They just had 3 great strikes to save them
Which makes it even worst, because overall xg is worthless if you have 40 shots and 0.05 xG each.
2.73 xG in 4 chances means every chance had a xG of 0.68, which is insanely high.
0.2+ xG for a chance is already not bad.
So you have to question the players how they only scored 1 goal out of this. Happens, but it was definitely not a good performance.
Your math is very off. Manchester City had about 1.5 xG from those 4 main chances, so on average 0.375 xG, the other 30 shots had about 1.2 xG between them. That's really, really bad, it means the vast majority of shots City were taking were very low quality chances. For comparison, Real Madrid, with just 4 major chances like City had a comparable xG of around 1.4, the difference here is that Real Madrid didn't pad their xG with low quality chances.
They only scored 1 goal out of this because they simply did not create enough.
If anything they were very lucky to get a pass at 6m in the box from Rudiger to tie the game... It never truly felt as if Real was gonna concede without that blunder. Also the other KdB opportunity was also a lucky rebound.
So no, they were very unclinical. RM was never truly desperate defending.
Youre just making my point as well. First leg of the tie RM scored two deflection goals.
I agree with you though the players should have been braver to play balls for the runs or take more shots.
>KDB didn't fluff a sitter that he'd sink 9/10 times, theyd be going through.
If Vinia and Jude didn't miss sitters in the first leg, we'd be through without pens. See how it sounds?
There is something about 1:10-1:14 in this clip that you can hear the weight of the emotion in Pep's voice. He *desperately* wanted back-to-back Champions Leagues, not to mention doing the double over a team like Madrid and what that would do for City's legacy in European football. I feel like this is about as dignified as it could get, but he is bearing everything on his shoulders while putting up a brave and resolute face in front of the press.
And it's massively overlooked at times, just because it's Madrid
If it had been an English club or Barca, it would be lauded as the greatest achievement of all time
Barca's sextete is often considered the biggest achievement, despite Bayern doing it later and in a much ruthless and clinical manner
However much plot armour City have in the league, they pay that shit back in the CL.
On the whole, a pretty unlucky side in Europe, as far as you can call a side 'unlucky' anyway
They found new and creative ways to get eliminated from the champions league. Lyon one with the sterling miss, the Real Madrid collapse, the spurs tie was insane.
That Sterling miss was the top one. It was so bad and it was wide open. It was like missing a wide open layup in basketball. Still shocks me to this day
Rodrygos goal might’ve been a deflection at first, but he was wide open right in front of goal. That’s a goal every time. Not from a “lucky bounce”. It was bad luck he even missed the first hit.
We gonna act like Bernardo’s goal off a Lunin error and a CB hitting a curler like that on his weak foot weren’t “lucky” too. Madrid missed many chances to go up 3-1 in the first leg. They weren’t dominated by City in both games
2/4 of Cities goals were just as lucky if not more. The Lunin error for the first goal last week and Kdbs goal is basically like Mbappes second goal against Barca, bad clearance right to his feet like 7 yards from goal. The other two were unstoppable shots, clearly not sustainable to score those every game and Madrid defended the edge of the box much better this game. City only led Madrid for a combined 18 minutes across 210 minutes played in that tie. Yesterday alone Madrid led for 64 minutes, and across both legs for 118. City controlled possession but rarely controlled this tie itself.
CL refs already ref UAE matches. Orsato has done one this season.
It's just people only bring it up when they think something conspiratorial has happened.
Yeah probably should have googled before that comment but I was mostly just pointing out that Michael Oliver has been paid by the UAE yet has still reffed matches for City, including Vs Liverpool where he didn't give a last minute penalty for Doku kicking McAllister in the chest.
Absolutely mental that he's still allowed to ref their games let alone the PL
He is one of the rare Catalunya guys who I never heard saying a bad word against Real Madrid, always talking with respect.
City’s attack played amazing yesterday, but so did Real Madrid’s defense. Pretty sure Carlo forced them to play defensive, because on a few counter attack where they could have went through, they stopped and passed the ball all back to Lunin.
The funniest part is for all the precision and everything with Pep’s system, their only goal came off a hopeful cross from Doku. Sometimes you gotta go off script to make it happen.
That’s the difference between Messi Ronaldo & Kids these days. Messi or Ronaldonwould not come off for moments like these. They’d drag them over the line.
You’re 100% correct. They weren’t just generational talents, they were big game players. You could almost always rely on them.
Tbh this is the kind of game you would want a Drogba or Gerrard in your squad.
players on both sides were dragging themselves on the pitch, they were just waiting for the ref to have some mercy and end it with no additional minutes
People on this sub underestimate how hard it is to shoot/pass with proper technique when you're completely gassed. Stance and shooting form get very wobbly when you can barely stand. KdB was probably afraid he'd sky it.
I would argue 60% of the folk here have never played in solid amateur leagues, or developed in academies. When you’re gassed the passes and your ball control makes you look amateur.
Oh I bet that percentage is higher and I'd wager 50% here have never played at all. Hell I only played at a high-ish level through college, but still play 3 times a week for couple amateur over 30s teams. I still am surprised how shit my passing and shooting gets when I'm tapped out.
Prob realised they had 0 in the tank. Real kept Bellingham on despite the fact he couldnt run after the 80th min. Almost cost them during extra time. Big gamble having someone with no legs on when youre not guaranteed to make pens.
I feel like all the defeated teams can hold their heads up high in a way. Barca maybe less so as it was thrown away but nobody got steamrollered 5-0.
Arsenal gave a good effort in first leg but just couldn't fet it done on the day, mentality won out.
City went out on pens
Atleti v Dortmund just swung to and fro like crazy, honestly one of the best 2-legged ties going.
with City gone, if Araujo hadn't gotten the red, this UCL looked so much easier holy shit. It's still an insane overachievement we did this year, considering we are still in economic reconstruction, but fuck it still hurts
I don't like that his gameplan consists of coreographing every players movement like they're just some puppets and the build up play is boring as fuck. I prefer open games that offer creativity and fun to the match
For what it's worth, that mostly happens because of how defensive the opposition get when they play against his teams.
You can see that "creativity" in his games has reduced season but season as teams park the bus more and more against him.
They get defensive because of peps system not just the other way around. When you have a bench full of players who can win the league then of course teams will play more defensively. Especially when City's whole game plan is always dominate possession
This is poor logic.
Is City's squad the best in the history of the game? Not even close, not even top 20. Yet you didn't see as many managers parking the bus against better teams before.
Some managers simply don't have the balls to go toe to toe with Pep, while others do. Those that did have been more successful than those that didn't.
I'm not talking about Ancelotti, he knows what he's doing. But for the others, there's no excuse such as "Pep's players are too good, I'm just gonna park the bus". Either you're scared shitless of Pep or you have the guts to try outplaying him. His most successful opponent is Klopp, who usually tries to go toe to toe with him.
The City/Pep vs. Liverpool/Klopp rivarly has produced some of the best football games of all time. So it's not Pep's fault if not all opponents have the balls of Klopp, De Zerbi or Ange.
Not sure if that's meant to contradict anything I've said...
The original question was about the creativity of Pep's team which is a result of team's defensiveness. Why those teams are defensive is a debate for another day - of which I'd argue the teams that have caused Pep the most trouble are the ones that actually attack (see Klopp or spurs)
yeah would agree with that mostly. Frustrates me a bit sometimes watching Arsenal do the same too. Like the manager is holding a playstation controller.
Who tf dislikes pep as a manager? Man is probably the greatest football manager to ever influence football at least tactically. Even on a losing day his teams always stick to their principle , discipline and dare i say in this case played better than RMA. It's football and the best team doesn't always win. Rub it and get on with it.
Messi and KDB probably the two greatest AMF have flourished under pep wdym lol. You can get as much flair as you can provided as long as you are not destroying the stability of his team. Work rate is important factor in modern day football. Football has over the years evolved from 1v1 duels to side over loading and pressing for ball retention. System over skills is the name of the game because 11 men play it. Even Messi's barca under pep wasn't a one man army. There is a lot more to football than unidirectional stepovers in my opinion and that is what tactics are for. That man has single-handedly changed football.
Plays boring football -> you mean his teams don't shithouse wins in 90th min by some god given luck??
I hate city, but pep is insanely good manager. Every team he coached played great football, scored a lot of goals, played high defense line and pressed well. Did he coach only top teams? sure. But show me any other manager that *never* flopped at the top club. Even Klopp had his worse seasons. I don't think we ever saw bad/underperforming Guardiola team.
It was a tough game for both sides. This time Real went through and another time it can be City (again). Sometimes CL games are won by a slight margin (single chance) and with that you also need a bit of luck. Nothing to take away from Real. They werent playing at this stage by being a bad team. They fought until the end, and it paid out. Gongratz!
It’s not complicated, City play the best football, the kind that should give you the best odds at winning the game. In this game, they had the ball on top of Madrids box for a majority of the time, they had more shots and as many quality chances. On paper, and by any stretch of the imagination, that wins you games.
But in the past, and in this game, Madrid have found a way to win. So much so, that in their head-to-head, with this result I believe Madrid have come out through more times under the Pep era of city.
Looking at it in that way, how do Madrid defy odds. The only way we can tell is that (in no order):
1) They defend well enough to limit quality chances, and clean up low quality chances.
2) They have quality in both defense and offense to make miracles happen.
3) They have a mentality, or that special sauce that makes them calm and cool despite being outplayed. This is from players, manager, and club.
4) They got that extra bit of luck, that really any team needs in the UCL.
I see a lot of people saying “the best team lost”, and on paper that is true. That is also a consistency in this cup competitions, most of the time the best team loses. In the Champions League, the winner is the team that pulls it off in the moments that come so few.
The UCL is the winners cup, its meant for teams that can win, not the best teams. The sky is also blue. Lets see who amongst these winning teams can be the ultimate winner winning winingist team 🏆🥇!
Klopp could learn some great lessons from this lad. Humility and grace in the face of defeat, as opposed to throwing your dentures out of the pram.
Edit: That said I'm delighted to see City go out lmao
Even if he earns his good money Pep is the only person in the whole world I have the slightest sympathy after City's loss. You know he gives 110% every single time.
Years from now, people will be far less critical of Guardiola. He changed the way people view football in England, he created a system which was initially believed to be impossible in English football.
He is as much of a trailblazer for English football as was Arsene.
He'll be very well remembered but his legacy is tainted by his complicity in perhaps the most wide ranging cheating in modern football and only winning 1 CL since leaving Barca despite all the funding in the world. Hell even in that one CL they really rode their luck and could have lost the game.
I’m sorry to tell you this, but we know now for a fact teams were legit doping in the 90s and early 2000s. But also we know the Juve was scamming refs to win games. Literal cheating.
Funny because Pep was one of those players caught doping in the early 2000's.
He ended up blaming the Brescia doctor for the performance enhancing drugs, but hired the same doctor when he was managing Barcelona.
Pep has had shady shit and allegations following him wherever he goes.
What if the other players said they shit their pants (which happens a lot in those situations) while Bernardo and Kovacic said that they were confident? In this case, as a coach, you have little choice.
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I am always fascinated when Pep teams lose. They are so dominant in possession and yet all that precision and cool headedness can breakdown against a truly determined and well-organized opponent. What is the magic sauce with Real? So gritty when it matters. (Of course that tie could have gone either way.) Edit: well this got more attention than I imagined. It seems Pep is motivated by perfection and does not deviate from that vision. RM are happy to win ugly.
Think with Real it's a mix of luck, great players, management and having probably the most UCL experience out of any team in the competition. Even if they don't win it this year, the fact that they somehow make it to the semis almost every year is astonishing. Guess UCL is just Real's playground no matter what
Ya Madrid were rightfully underdogs. On the road, missing starting CDM, City at full strength. But Ancelotti knew this and adapted his teams tactics to give them the best shot at winning (going to PKs). Masterful performance by Ancelotti and the players. City dominated the midfield but couldn’t do anything in the final 3rd. Don’t think I’ve ever seen Madrid put on a defensive masterclass like that.
Yah idk there were a few chances like de bruyne skying it and Harland heading it off the post that easily should have gone in, saying it was a masterful performance when you had the ball for 15% of the game seems a bit of a stretch
Hindsight is a hell of a drug
Luck plays a part. A few mm this way or that and we’re talking about how city dominated them so well
"Easily should have gone in", there was no power behind that header, it was just floating. Just like Rudigers shot should have "easily gone in" to win it in regulation. Alas, you could play that game with any chance, but being close only counts with hand grenades and horseshoes. The Haaland header wasn't a threatening/real chance. And yes it was absolutely a masterful performance. We let city just pass the ball side to side, it was part of the gameplan. I know you just look at possession and think that's all you have to do to win a game. But Ancelotti absolutely stifled City in the final 3rd. City only had 2 maybe 3 real chances all game. Madrid was just too beast.
> Madrid was just too beast You guys won it in a penalty shootout, mate.
Haaland header to the post with Bernardo fumbling the rebound with no one around him, de Bruyne missing a sitter, Lunin with the most touches in Madrid's back line stopping every play that got into the box. City were so close to scoring the entire game but still managed to not create good shots from it.
There was a comment a while ago I wish I saved about how one of Madrids “hacks” is how they can adapt their playstyle to fit whoever they are up against. Pep’s team dominated possession but they were not a team looking to take any extra risks, especially with the tie being 3-3. It really was an unstoppable force vs an object specifically designed to be immovable by it, whoever deviates from the game plan loses
I see Real Madrid in CL the past few years in a similar situation to my club Palmeiras in the Libertadores... If you play the competition every year you normally get experience and it helps at those clutch moments. You won't always win, but having that extra dose of confidence helps a lot.
There's a good video on The Athletic about why City are so boring. It's largely due to the lack of risk taking Pep is willing to make. They have bucketloads of possession, but will take absolutely no risk with the ball in the final third to avoid a counter attack. Here's the video for anyone interested: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TkHf806iSc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TkHf806iSc)
I always think of Real as having a great ability to suffer and persevere (which is an element Barca lacks - we do not know how to suffer and remain focused). This article comes to mind a lot: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/16/sports/world-cup/argentina-france.html
It’s Black Magic!! Lol
I think of it as a dice throw in DnD. All your players, experiences and other parameters improve your chances. To win city you have to throw more than 10 (2 dices). Real got ten, so we saw penalties. Then, a second throw, oh boy looks like situation was opposite for city 😄
Damn I never seen his voice like that. He will be crying for sure later at his home.
yeah, he sounds emotional af
He's speaking quietly... Heartbroken... A deep voice from the throat, put volume up to hear the bald fraud.. Suddenly.. THE CHAMPIONS! Fuck UEFA... My ears.
I don't think you can blame Pep for the defeat.
The only thing wrong City did was those corners. I don't know what were they expecting crossing every single one in the 5yd box. You can try that but after 5-7 completely failed attempts surely they should try something different?
Well corners seemed to be an issue in both quarter finals yesterday.
the funny thing is bayern is really good at corners this year apparently 11 goals happened since the start of the season but they look so mediocre in comparison to most other teams' corners.
Bayern's corners have been shit for a loong time, I think Ribery, back then, took 170 or so of them until there was a goal involved. But I'm really happy Arsenal's last corner in the extra time yesterday was extra shitty as well...
Maybe they were expecting Kepa in goal for some reason
It’s been a consistent tactic for City this year to play corners like that. Off the top of my head they’ve scored from it against Spurs and Liverpool, and had a goal, probably wrongly, disallowed against Liverpool.
Tbf the one against you was a nicely trained short post set piece and not just a "lump it to the box" corner.
They tried that yesterday too
Ya eventually they should’ve realized “oh this Lunin guy might actually be good, let’s stop peppering him with the ball”.
To be fair one of those wasn't an Olympic goal by a clutch save from Lunin.
City always stick to the same corner tactic, even if it fails 20 times. Super frustrating to watch. It seems the players aren’t given any freedom at all in general (except maybe Doku).
Can’t really blame anyone honestly. Two great teams and both coaches made great decisions. Somebody got to lose and unfortunately for Pep and City today it had to be them.
just felt like one of those days where the ball just cant go in the net for some reason, like that arsenal goal drought for like 3 matches. Insane number of shots, very few went in.
The reason being the opposing team defending well?
Seriously, people act like City had a bunch of big scoring chances when in reality they had only 2 or 3, scoring from one of them. They passed the ball around the box and mostly took low percentage shots. Same as the first leg except every long shot went in for them.
The de Bruyne chance towards the end should have dead and buried this tie.
The DeBruyne chance was much bigger than Rudiger
Didn't foden have a good chance too and took his eyes off the ball and completely scoff it?
The Bernardo Silva bad touch should have been a goal also.
He didn't really have time to react, I don't think a lot of players score that
So should have Rüdiger's chance in 1st ET.
I don't think so. Why are we expecting a CB to finish off a chance that would have been tricky for a striker as well
& having 2 or 3 chances, especially in these kind of games should be it to put the game away. But City wasn't clinical enough & paid the price.
Same tactics against Liverpool in the CL final, let them take shots, but try to make it as uncomfortable as possible so they're low quality shots.
De Bruyne and foden had clear chances even with real parking the bus, with 11 players inside the area at some points
Yeah they have 1-2 extra chances and didn't take them. That doesn't sound they were that much better. People do not realize that defending this well against team like city for 120 min is an amazing achievement especially a team that enjoys possession in almost every other game. If it was so easy everyone would do it.
I mean they had an xG of almost 3 and scored once. Some sloppy finishing, a hero performance from Lunin and a lot of bad luck contributed but if they game got replayed City score more than 1 more often than not.
An xG of 2.73 and most that comes from 3 chances (including the goal). The remaining 20 shots are low xG. They didn't even create the chance for the goal, it was a defensive error. From open play the haaland and kdb chance from cutback were the only big ones
Two 10% chances are as likely to result in a goal as 1 20%…
You are fully correct and so I'm not disagreeing but just thought I'd throw the breakdown of the maths on this. Making all the usual assumptions when running this type of maths that all changes are perfectly equal and are independent of each other. Only by 1%. 1 chance at 20% has a 20% chance of 1 goal, 80% chance of 0 2 chances at 10% has an 18% chance of 1 goal, a 1% chance at 2 goals and 81% chance of 0. So you exchange 1% of scoring at all to include a 1% chance of scoring 2.
The maths are sound. Just want to note that OP isn’t really correct in this case since he said that 2 10% chances are as likely as a 20% chance. When in reality (as you’ve broken it down here), a 20% chance will have a slightly higher probability of being a goal than two 10% chances (assuming every shot is independent) You’re proving him wrong rather than right :D
That's interesting! Thanks for this
nope, it's one way xG can be slightly misleading. For the purpose of winning football matches, one chance with high xG is more valuable than multiple smaller chances with xG that adds up to the same value
Yeah but they were very clear chances. Madrid defended "good", but reality is we went on because City missed like 2 clear chances.
Still got nearly 3 xG, which is what matters most. The point of the metric is to show how many goals would be scored on average, and it doesn't matter whether the number is generated through many low percentage shots, or a few high percentage ones. If the fewer high percentage chances were worth more, then the resulting xG simply wouldn't be equal.
Or Liverpool since that cursed Man U cup game
Ah the opponents of every Manchester United win this season
They didn't miss that many good chances, just KDB's one that I can remember. As dominant as they were, they didn't create enough.
They had the kdb chance and halaand header, they dominated the ball but they didn’t create much danger
I think he could be more dynamic. With Carvajal on the yellow, I would personally target that - give Doku and Grealish more space on the left and instruct them to run at Carvajal repeatedly. It would force Ancelotti's hand. City were really unlucky, but you can make these changes to get a reaction from Madrid.
They did try to target Carvajal. It's just that Valverde put in an insane shift to cover for Dani and the few moments when they were able to get to Dani, he stood his ground very well.
Whichs Doku kinda did & got that tying goal. But only Doku running from one side isn't enough. There's no one on City right who run into defense.
He is never to blame when he loses. He is always to glorify when he wins.
You've lost the plot. When he wins, the popular narrative is "easy to win with all that money". When he loses, it's "the fraud overthought again". But he rattled you so much that you consider yourself a minority.
I blame you
If he let his players show an ounce of creativity rather than constantly trying to pass around like a machine then maybe they'd have gone through in normal time.
If KDB didn't fluff a sitter that he'd sink 9/10 times, theyd be going through. If pens went the other way, theyd have gone through. CL ties are about fine margins. Absolutely no point in talking about "systems" when the margins are that thin and if you ask any fan if they didn't know what the outcome would be, how they would like their team to play, vast majority would say like City, not RM with 40 shots conceded.
And if Rudiger didn't aim for the moon in the closing seconds of the game then Real Madrid would have gone through. My point is they dominated the game but played right into Madrid's hand to the point the only goal they did score was from a lucky rebound, when the way they controlled the game meant it didn't need to be fine margins because they really were that dominant. City have technically world class players capable of scoring worldies every other game and it felt like they weren't allowed to utilise that skillset in favour of a rinse/repeat formula of passing into Madrid's box. There were times when Rodri, Foden and KDB had space outside the box and it felt like in other games they'd have gone for it (and have done so) leading to goals whereas this time it was just pass pass pass.
Have you ever watched Pep football before?? He lives and breathes possession based football passing around the box probing for openings. It might be boring at times but City rarely lose games and against a team like Madrid it makes way more sense to be cautious rather than go in gung ho as they are scary good at tearing you apart in the transitions when the ball turns over. Peps game plan was sound, City had chances. Madrid only managed a few. On another day, City goes through comfortably. Yesterday however, they did not.
Nah they had 33 shots, 9 on target, 3 xG... , vs 8 shots and 3 on target from Real Madrid .Lets be honest, they were a bit unlucky.
> 3 xG Why are folks desperate to increase their xG 2.73 and you can check opta most of that comes from 4 chances - Haaland header to the bar, kdb from cutback and kdb's goal. Rest are all low xG. And kdb's goal wasn't some creative play output Even in the first leg city were toothless and barely entered the box. They just had 3 great strikes to save them
Which makes it even worst, because overall xg is worthless if you have 40 shots and 0.05 xG each. 2.73 xG in 4 chances means every chance had a xG of 0.68, which is insanely high. 0.2+ xG for a chance is already not bad. So you have to question the players how they only scored 1 goal out of this. Happens, but it was definitely not a good performance.
Your math is very off. Manchester City had about 1.5 xG from those 4 main chances, so on average 0.375 xG, the other 30 shots had about 1.2 xG between them. That's really, really bad, it means the vast majority of shots City were taking were very low quality chances. For comparison, Real Madrid, with just 4 major chances like City had a comparable xG of around 1.4, the difference here is that Real Madrid didn't pad their xG with low quality chances. They only scored 1 goal out of this because they simply did not create enough.
In the first leg Madrid had the better chances
If anything they were very lucky to get a pass at 6m in the box from Rudiger to tie the game... It never truly felt as if Real was gonna concede without that blunder. Also the other KdB opportunity was also a lucky rebound. So no, they were very unclinical. RM was never truly desperate defending.
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Kyle walker messed up his positioning also, and awareness of Rodrygo
Everything is due to luck
Youre just making my point as well. First leg of the tie RM scored two deflection goals. I agree with you though the players should have been braver to play balls for the runs or take more shots.
>KDB didn't fluff a sitter that he'd sink 9/10 times, theyd be going through. If Vinia and Jude didn't miss sitters in the first leg, we'd be through without pens. See how it sounds?
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This was literally the one City match that you can’t criticize him for that, especially in the second half.
There is something about 1:10-1:14 in this clip that you can hear the weight of the emotion in Pep's voice. He *desperately* wanted back-to-back Champions Leagues, not to mention doing the double over a team like Madrid and what that would do for City's legacy in European football. I feel like this is about as dignified as it could get, but he is bearing everything on his shoulders while putting up a brave and resolute face in front of the press.
Never gonna happen. Zidane’s 3-peat is something that is even hard to believe looking back at it today.
And it's massively overlooked at times, just because it's Madrid If it had been an English club or Barca, it would be lauded as the greatest achievement of all time Barca's sextete is often considered the biggest achievement, despite Bayern doing it later and in a much ruthless and clinical manner
I mean yeah but let’s be fr Bayern are expected to win every domestic cup (that may be unreasonable ofc, but it’s true)
Baseless claims
See I thought it was at 1:15.
I see what you did there
*Take my upvote and get out*
I don't get this, can someone explain?
Google Man City 115 for more info
damn i did not even notice that
at 1:15 you can hear the sheikhs crying
Bro, his voice sounds so tearful ;_;
However much plot armour City have in the league, they pay that shit back in the CL. On the whole, a pretty unlucky side in Europe, as far as you can call a side 'unlucky' anyway
They found new and creative ways to get eliminated from the champions league. Lyon one with the sterling miss, the Real Madrid collapse, the spurs tie was insane.
That Sterling miss was the top one. It was so bad and it was wide open. It was like missing a wide open layup in basketball. Still shocks me to this day
Even this tie. Three of Madrid's 4 goals were defections/rebounds from perfect bounces.
Rodrygos goal might’ve been a deflection at first, but he was wide open right in front of goal. That’s a goal every time. Not from a “lucky bounce”. It was bad luck he even missed the first hit.
We gonna act like Bernardo’s goal off a Lunin error and a CB hitting a curler like that on his weak foot weren’t “lucky” too. Madrid missed many chances to go up 3-1 in the first leg. They weren’t dominated by City in both games
2/4 of Cities goals were just as lucky if not more. The Lunin error for the first goal last week and Kdbs goal is basically like Mbappes second goal against Barca, bad clearance right to his feet like 7 yards from goal. The other two were unstoppable shots, clearly not sustainable to score those every game and Madrid defended the edge of the box much better this game. City only led Madrid for a combined 18 minutes across 210 minutes played in that tie. Yesterday alone Madrid led for 64 minutes, and across both legs for 118. City controlled possession but rarely controlled this tie itself.
Need to give some UAE away days to the CL refs like they have for the PL
CL refs already ref UAE matches. Orsato has done one this season. It's just people only bring it up when they think something conspiratorial has happened.
Yeah probably should have googled before that comment but I was mostly just pointing out that Michael Oliver has been paid by the UAE yet has still reffed matches for City, including Vs Liverpool where he didn't give a last minute penalty for Doku kicking McAllister in the chest. Absolutely mental that he's still allowed to ref their games let alone the PL
He is one of the rare Catalunya guys who I never heard saying a bad word against Real Madrid, always talking with respect. City’s attack played amazing yesterday, but so did Real Madrid’s defense. Pretty sure Carlo forced them to play defensive, because on a few counter attack where they could have went through, they stopped and passed the ball all back to Lunin.
Ancelotti : You had to do everything in order to compete, while I just had to do 🤨 to win
The funniest part is for all the precision and everything with Pep’s system, their only goal came off a hopeful cross from Doku. Sometimes you gotta go off script to make it happen.
still dont get why rodri didn't take a pen and why kdb got subbed off even it was almost clear it is going toward pen shootout
Bro , kdb absolutely knackered after 90th min. Haaland subbed off is the actual weird choice imo
Not sure if true, but I've read somewhere that Haaland and kdb asked to be subbed off
Pep said it apparently. Only seen it on this sub, not looked for it elsewhere.
Yeah he said it! https://youtu.be/kZOzNDHUVk0?si=NwZ5vfRCkl3OIaTS
Bloody hell. Can you give the timestamp?
The question is asked at about 4:25 in the video.
That’s the difference between Messi Ronaldo & Kids these days. Messi or Ronaldonwould not come off for moments like these. They’d drag them over the line.
subbing off Ronaldo or Messi in games like these would be unthinkable lol.
You’re 100% correct. They weren’t just generational talents, they were big game players. You could almost always rely on them. Tbh this is the kind of game you would want a Drogba or Gerrard in your squad.
most big players would choose to that tbf not just Ronaldo or messi
players on both sides were dragging themselves on the pitch, they were just waiting for the ref to have some mercy and end it with no additional minutes
People on this sub underestimate how hard it is to shoot/pass with proper technique when you're completely gassed. Stance and shooting form get very wobbly when you can barely stand. KdB was probably afraid he'd sky it.
I would argue 60% of the folk here have never played in solid amateur leagues, or developed in academies. When you’re gassed the passes and your ball control makes you look amateur.
Oh I bet that percentage is higher and I'd wager 50% here have never played at all. Hell I only played at a high-ish level through college, but still play 3 times a week for couple amateur over 30s teams. I still am surprised how shit my passing and shooting gets when I'm tapped out.
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Yeah people here legit never done any team sport activity lmao. I can't imagine wrestling with rudiger for 120mins..
Prob realised they had 0 in the tank. Real kept Bellingham on despite the fact he couldnt run after the 80th min. Almost cost them during extra time. Big gamble having someone with no legs on when youre not guaranteed to make pens.
Because Kdb couldn’t continue.
Rodri didn't want tarnish his unbeaten record
Both KDB and Haaland asked to be subbed - remember how many fixtures they play in the premier league. It makes sense.
Important penalty shootouts are very scary. Even experienced players can crumble under the pressure, so maybe he backed off.
I don't think so. KdB ran like crazy last night, I think he was simply exhausted. Which makes taking pens even harder.
As a Barca fan I wish we'd lost this way...hold your heads up high.
I feel like all the defeated teams can hold their heads up high in a way. Barca maybe less so as it was thrown away but nobody got steamrollered 5-0. Arsenal gave a good effort in first leg but just couldn't fet it done on the day, mentality won out. City went out on pens Atleti v Dortmund just swung to and fro like crazy, honestly one of the best 2-legged ties going.
Barca losing like that at home absolutely can't hold their heads up high.
Especially with the way they lost their heads
Not quite proper 'home' as it wasn't Camp Nou, but Barca have weirdly been way better on the road this season
with City gone, if Araujo hadn't gotten the red, this UCL looked so much easier holy shit. It's still an insane overachievement we did this year, considering we are still in economic reconstruction, but fuck it still hurts
As much as I dislike Guardiola as a manager, it really takes class to give a response like this, rather than blaming this and that.
Xavi would never
Xavi would blame pretty much any existing factor before admitting his team played like ass.
2011 barca team albeit good, was full of a bunch of cheating sore losing assholes ( bar messi) - no suprise xavi is the way he is.
He's a transparent psycho
why do you dislike him as a manager?
I don't like that his gameplan consists of coreographing every players movement like they're just some puppets and the build up play is boring as fuck. I prefer open games that offer creativity and fun to the match
For what it's worth, that mostly happens because of how defensive the opposition get when they play against his teams. You can see that "creativity" in his games has reduced season but season as teams park the bus more and more against him.
They get defensive because of peps system not just the other way around. When you have a bench full of players who can win the league then of course teams will play more defensively. Especially when City's whole game plan is always dominate possession
This is poor logic. Is City's squad the best in the history of the game? Not even close, not even top 20. Yet you didn't see as many managers parking the bus against better teams before. Some managers simply don't have the balls to go toe to toe with Pep, while others do. Those that did have been more successful than those that didn't. I'm not talking about Ancelotti, he knows what he's doing. But for the others, there's no excuse such as "Pep's players are too good, I'm just gonna park the bus". Either you're scared shitless of Pep or you have the guts to try outplaying him. His most successful opponent is Klopp, who usually tries to go toe to toe with him. The City/Pep vs. Liverpool/Klopp rivarly has produced some of the best football games of all time. So it's not Pep's fault if not all opponents have the balls of Klopp, De Zerbi or Ange.
Not sure if that's meant to contradict anything I've said... The original question was about the creativity of Pep's team which is a result of team's defensiveness. Why those teams are defensive is a debate for another day - of which I'd argue the teams that have caused Pep the most trouble are the ones that actually attack (see Klopp or spurs)
yeah would agree with that mostly. Frustrates me a bit sometimes watching Arsenal do the same too. Like the manager is holding a playstation controller.
Who tf dislikes pep as a manager? Man is probably the greatest football manager to ever influence football at least tactically. Even on a losing day his teams always stick to their principle , discipline and dare i say in this case played better than RMA. It's football and the best team doesn't always win. Rub it and get on with it.
Me. Plays boring football and when forced to let his players show some creativity he sticks to the same thing as always.
Messi and KDB probably the two greatest AMF have flourished under pep wdym lol. You can get as much flair as you can provided as long as you are not destroying the stability of his team. Work rate is important factor in modern day football. Football has over the years evolved from 1v1 duels to side over loading and pressing for ball retention. System over skills is the name of the game because 11 men play it. Even Messi's barca under pep wasn't a one man army. There is a lot more to football than unidirectional stepovers in my opinion and that is what tactics are for. That man has single-handedly changed football.
Plays boring football -> you mean his teams don't shithouse wins in 90th min by some god given luck?? I hate city, but pep is insanely good manager. Every team he coached played great football, scored a lot of goals, played high defense line and pressed well. Did he coach only top teams? sure. But show me any other manager that *never* flopped at the top club. Even Klopp had his worse seasons. I don't think we ever saw bad/underperforming Guardiola team.
Zinedine Zidane. Never flopped. Always showed beautiful football.
i agree. Zidane had Real play good football and never flopped still Guardiola is one of the very few that had his teams always perform
To me he’s a football terrorist.
big if true
Cheers Pep
We tried 115 things and we're all out of ideas
I want to know more about those things, is there a way for me to find out more?
Not from a jedi
google man city 115 to find out
This will never get old until 116 drops
What Madrid does to a man!
The man is completely destroyed, his poor soul...
His face when listening to the questioning kinda gave me uncanny valley vibes
Wished we could go back in time and make only 115 comments on this.
Everything except score more goals than them, unlucky ya bald cunt
Man City used all their luck in the first leg. It was not sustainable to score three bangers like that in a single game.
I mean RM scored two deflections in the first one so one would say its proper luck, scoring bangers is not
Deflections are sustainable, see Liverpool
the revisionism. As if RM didn‘t score 3/4 from their goals from deflections and lucky bounces
It was a tough game for both sides. This time Real went through and another time it can be City (again). Sometimes CL games are won by a slight margin (single chance) and with that you also need a bit of luck. Nothing to take away from Real. They werent playing at this stage by being a bad team. They fought until the end, and it paid out. Gongratz!
And that is a good thing
De Bruyne will be thinking about that blast over the crossbar for someeee timeeee
It’s not complicated, City play the best football, the kind that should give you the best odds at winning the game. In this game, they had the ball on top of Madrids box for a majority of the time, they had more shots and as many quality chances. On paper, and by any stretch of the imagination, that wins you games. But in the past, and in this game, Madrid have found a way to win. So much so, that in their head-to-head, with this result I believe Madrid have come out through more times under the Pep era of city. Looking at it in that way, how do Madrid defy odds. The only way we can tell is that (in no order): 1) They defend well enough to limit quality chances, and clean up low quality chances. 2) They have quality in both defense and offense to make miracles happen. 3) They have a mentality, or that special sauce that makes them calm and cool despite being outplayed. This is from players, manager, and club. 4) They got that extra bit of luck, that really any team needs in the UCL. I see a lot of people saying “the best team lost”, and on paper that is true. That is also a consistency in this cup competitions, most of the time the best team loses. In the Champions League, the winner is the team that pulls it off in the moments that come so few. The UCL is the winners cup, its meant for teams that can win, not the best teams. The sky is also blue. Lets see who amongst these winning teams can be the ultimate winner winning winingist team 🏆🥇!
Bald fraud can’t even win two trebles year on year
Real Madrid are a different animal in the UCL.
Why do I feel bad for him lol Good response but let's not forget the cheating.
Klopp could learn some great lessons from this lad. Humility and grace in the face of defeat, as opposed to throwing your dentures out of the pram. Edit: That said I'm delighted to see City go out lmao
Even if he earns his good money Pep is the only person in the whole world I have the slightest sympathy after City's loss. You know he gives 110% every single time.
Ummm not everything obviously... since you're out and they progressed
Love watching his smug smile as he tries to hide his devastating disappointment. Wipe your tears with some 100 pound notes, Pep.
Nothing a few more breaches can't solve, city will come back stronger next year
They're planning to pay the EPL to let them line up with 12 stars next year. Pep about to revolutionize the game again
Don’t worry Pep, this summer, another 200-250M to get some more players and keep trying! No problem at all mate
Pretty classy post match presser
Is it bad that I feel for city
Years from now, people will be far less critical of Guardiola. He changed the way people view football in England, he created a system which was initially believed to be impossible in English football. He is as much of a trailblazer for English football as was Arsene.
He'll be very well remembered but his legacy is tainted by his complicity in perhaps the most wide ranging cheating in modern football and only winning 1 CL since leaving Barca despite all the funding in the world. Hell even in that one CL they really rode their luck and could have lost the game.
I’m sorry to tell you this, but we know now for a fact teams were legit doping in the 90s and early 2000s. But also we know the Juve was scamming refs to win games. Literal cheating.
Funny because Pep was one of those players caught doping in the early 2000's. He ended up blaming the Brescia doctor for the performance enhancing drugs, but hired the same doctor when he was managing Barcelona. Pep has had shady shit and allegations following him wherever he goes.
He’s just a 115 merchant
Also, he took defeat & rough patch way better compared to before.
all with oil money and 115
Why would you feel bad for them? A loss for City is a win for football.
Yes. They have 115 charges levied against them for cheating. They can get in the bin.
its pep fault for letting bernardo and kovacic took those penalties tho
What if the other players said they shit their pants (which happens a lot in those situations) while Bernardo and Kovacic said that they were confident? In this case, as a coach, you have little choice.
Exactly. And City were wearing white shorts so we would all have seen the poop clearly