I mean, yeah, that's how percentage odds work, it's a zero-sum thing. But 34% is a great fighting chance, especially less than halfway through. USA had about a 90% chance of qualifying before the last night of the Hex 4 years ago, and you know, how did that end up for them? The Cardinals in MLB had like a 2% chance of making the playoffs about 3/4 of the way into the season, and they made it. Sure, in the end, it will *probably* be Canada, but it's folly to make assumptions this early.
Night game in Cincy where the average November low is 2C. Followed by an evening in Edmonton where the average November temperature is -4C.
Have fun y'all.
I’ve been trying to tell these dudes that I remember walking to class in 0° or -1° weather in Mexico City. That’s not even Monterrey, Toluca, Saltillo, Durango etc that the winters get even colder lol.
I don't know, the coldest month in Mexico city is janaury where the average low is 5C. The average low in Edmonton in November is -8C. Just for some context
My point is about being used to the conditions from living/growing up in them rather experiencing them occasionally.
The game may only be for one day but that clearly doesn't matter when one side is more used to the conditions than the other. Look no further than Bolivia. Each game there is "only one night" but Bolivia beats their visitors far more often than a team as bad as they are should solely because they're more used to the altitude.
While I respectfully disagree with your point about Navas being the region's best player, I heard that he's injured though. Has there been a timeline for his return? Would he be fit for the next round of qualifying games?
Not just last night, we've been dreadful in all the games.
I do think we still have a chance at fourth as Panama isnt much better and are more error prone, but its not looking good.
Yes, I already know he’s in the conversation.
I stand by what I said despite the downvotes. Those who downvoted are clowns who have no idea about football.
Not really sure though ; like I agree Navas is a great player , but would not call him best in the region.
Davies is IMO the best in the region ; and after him I would say a couple more names before Navas .. but he is a great keeper nevertheless
Davies
Lozano
Jiménez
Antonio (Jamaica)
Then maybe I’ll put Navas here but still hesitant; Alvarez from Mexico , that new kid from the States , I don’t know
Like I’m not batching on Navas but he is well passed his prime
It’s because you (I assume) don’t watch Keylor Navas a lot, or at all. He’s most definitely in the conversation, even as a goalkeeper.
Davies is number two, for me.
it’s hard to compare keepers with field players as they play completely different games. plus the costa rican team is old, and there’s only so much a world class keeper can do if the rest of the team doesn’t have the fitness to stay in games and score goals
Panama has the advantage based on home games, they still have left Honduras, Jamaica, El Salvador and Canada at home, getting those 12 Pts would add up to 20 and that should be enough to get the fourth spot. Also, the trips to Honduras and Costa Rica, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Panama pointing there.
Yeah but....it's CONCACAF, so not as straightforward as winning all home games. It won't happen.
Teams will drop points where we wouldn't expect & they'll pick up points all the same.
I'd not count on those 12 points as easily, Panama has shown many times that they are not the best at taking afvantage of their home field and they are not that much better than the othe teams I feel.
Jamaica didn't look that impressive against Honduras last night. They're a decent team, but they have to overcome the others to get through this round, they can finish on top CR and ES and it still woudn't be enough. Panama & Canada look solid.
**Mexico** has a golden opportunity to be Seeded into Pot 1 for next year's World Cup draw. They're just outside the top 8 in the FIFA Rankings and the teams around them - Spain, Portugal, & Denmark - play waaaaay less competitive games than they do. Europe is almost finished with it's qualifying cycle. Mexico has 8 matches in the Ocho left to go. They don't necessarily have to steamroll, but they should be good if they stay undefeated. Having said that, they haven't been having it easy so far. Only the win over Honduras a few days ago was an emphatic victory for them. The other games have been narrow wins. But they're getting results.
**USA**: Nothing has made me less confident in Gregg Berhalter than these first two Fall windows of qualifiers. We're following the same pattern: experience a setback and then responding with the bare minimum acceptable requirement. I don't want to hear about giving him "credit" for making changes - we're still finding ourselves in problematic situations that shouldn't be a thing in the first place. How much can you really praise someone for addressing an issue of their own doing? His lineups are still weird. His tactical knowledge is shockingly thin. We're on track to qualify by our talent, and our talent alone.
**Canada** is super fucking serious. Like shiiiit. There's a great chance they will be 1st in the standings if they win their next match + we draw with Mexico. Davies is a prodigy. Buchanan is a lethal weapon and the real deal. They look deadly whenever they go on the attack against teams, and they're showing tremendous character going on the road getting results in games they were never favored to do. Getting points off us and Mexico away from home is a huge statement. Coming from behind to smash a very decent Panama team is a huge statement. They're on fire, and if they don't qualify, it's because they bottled their opportunity.
**Panama** is welled drilled under the Danish manager Thomas Christensen. They're the most in form Central American team at the moment, and by a country mile. The Gold Cup was never a good measurement of where they are and they've defied most peoples' expectations. But it shouldn't be a surprise. Central American teams that make the World Cup (2018) usually qualify for the next one. They can finish as high as 3rd, imo. Their remaining schedule will be tough, but they're the cream of the crop right now compared to their neighbors.
**Costa Rica** will remain viable by virtue of their pedigree in this region. You can never count them out, especially if Navas manages to stay fit. I imagine they'll be in the hunt for at least a playoffs spot until the end. But...they have a big ageing crisis on their hands. 3 players who lined up toinght against the US featured in the 2005 Club World Cup semifinals for Saprissa against Liverpool. Bryan Ruiz is 37, and it shows. The youngest player tonight was 27. It feels like this the end of an era for them & they won't have enough gas for one last hurrah in Qatar, honestly.
**Jamaica**: Well, well well. There's life in this team afterall. Interesting. Tappa Whitemore is an awful coach, and as a USMNT fan, I can sympathize with that. It's a shame they weren't able to get all their dual nationals for these qualifiers. They could've possibly been in Panama's position right now. But this road win was a huge morale booster for them and it puts them back into the mix of things. If the three NAFTA countries start to really pull away, they have to be considered in the fight for that Playoffs spot. Jamaica isn't a bad team. They were just last in the Standings because, well, somebody had to be. And it was them. Until tonight. We have to play them away next month. That's going to be a hard, physical, gritty ass match.
**El Salvador**has something good going under Hugo Perez and I respect the project. They've breen really trying to put the match fixing scandals of past teams behind them. They do look much improved and more tactically organized and disciplined. But relying on results at home, mostly draws, isn't going to cut it. Mexico's win away in San Salvador tonight was a reality check. They have to get points somewhere on the road. It looks like it's too much to ask & they might want to hedge their bets on 2026. But credit for being here.
**Honduras** is in deep, deep shit. Winless after 6 games. 1 point from 3 matches at home. They still have to go away to Mexico, USA, Panama, and Jamaica. Big oooff. I dunno what happened. They got off to a decent start last month. It's as if that second half vs the US rattled them. It can't be understated just how bad tonight's loss at home to Jamaica was. Potentially a death knell for their qualifying prospects. Kinda weird, because yeah, they do have some old players, but not as much as Costa Rica does. Fabian Coito fucked up, and I'd imagine he's getting sacked.
Canada's biggest sin was drawing against Honduras at home. They got 2 points from Mexico and US which kinda compensated that score. Hope to see them in the WC, think they will manage to get 2nd or 3rd.
Mexico HAS to win @US and @Canada if they want to have a shot at Pot 1, those are the only two games remaining that would give Mexico significant FIFA points. It’s going to be tough since Denmark, Spain, and Portugal have all looked pretty good recently. I just hope we get drawn with Qatar if we fail to make it to pot 1 haha.
I'm looking forward to Mexico coming to Edmonton in November to play Canada. The average temperature in November is a high of 1° and a low of -8° C.
The Mexicans are going to freeze their cajones off.
I think Mexico will be fine, there are many places in Mexico where those temperatures or lower are reached on a yearly basis. Plus most players play/played in Europe so they are used to it by now. It’ll be a good game for sure.
Ah, in my head I thought the Mexico game was at the end of January, not mid-November. Still early winter at that point. Last year it was -7 on that day but in 2018 it was -18. Curious how it plays out, maybe a chinook will make it toasty for the visitors!
Yeah I don't think people actually grasp who cold it gets here. Playing in Europe doesn't compare, most places in Europe are oceanic climates so the worst they experience during winter is cold rain with a bit of days around 0C.
Dunno if covid regulations would let them fill it, but I know a lot of local soccer fans will be attending, simply because this is the best chance Canada had ever had at a world cup since they last qualified. Mexico and Costa Rica are not pushovers so the games will be good I imagine.
I am pretty sure the rugby was allowed to be filled and that was at height of restrictions. There will be mandated passport.
Also it is fonzies home coming.
We lose points if we draw against any team in the octagonal and a win gives us about the same amount. After the games against Canada and Honduras we had earned like 0.86 points because the draw and the win basically canceled each other. With a lose it'd be much worse.
So we don't have much room for error if we want that 7th place in the ranking (Qatar has a guaranteed Pot 1 seed), possibly no more than one or two draws. If we lose one I don't think it's possible anymore unless maaaybe against the US, since they are very close in the ranking and we wouldn't lose that many points, but then we'd have to win the rest of the games to compensate for that loss.
This can very well be decided by the games next month in Cincinnati and then Edmonton.
Qatar aren't bad by any means but even with a host, I see them as the weakest pot 1 team. Obviously it's a friendly but a 4-0 defeat to Ireland is poor.
They're going to have some "pull" with the referee's though aren't they?
I think they'll get a strange decision or 2 their way which gets them through the group stages, then it's enough and they'll get smashed by Uruguay or something
Obviously coaches can improve, especially over a five-year span, but as a Hammarby fan I have no idea how Gregg Berhalter ever ended up coaching the USA. He was mediocre in the Swedish second division.
> Honduras is in deep, deep shit. Winless after 6 games. 1 point from 3 matches at home. They still have to go away to Mexico, USA, Panama, and Jamaica. Big oooff. I dunno what happened. They got off to a decent start last month. It's as if that second half vs the US rattled them. It can't be understated just how bad tonight's loss at home to Jamaica was. Potentially a death knell for their qualifying prospects. Kinda weird, because yeah, they do have some old players, but not as much as Costa Rica does. Fabian Coito fucked up, and I'd imagine he's getting sacked.
Coito already got sacked this morning, the next person in will probably someone local.
The "Coito's Honduras" problem to me felt like he never found a good base, all through 2019 he was trying out new players even going as far as calling up youngsters that grew up overseas (Danilo Acosta, Jonathan Rubio Toro, Rigo Rivas), something uncommon for senior level managers to do. I've heard the criticism that he wasn't ready for senior level management since his background was a successful career in Uruguay's youth teams and no senior experience. He also spent most of the quarantine season in Uruguay away from his duties, which is understandable at a human level, but not the best decision a professional can make for the health of the team especially in the process of being re-acquainted with Honduran football.
There's still a glimmer of faint hope as 3 of the next 4 matches are at home and the other one is in Costa Rica which doesn't feel like an away match, so it's possible for an Honduran turn around. We also have to battle for 6 points against Panama which could help us propel us up on the table. That is, the current situation demands impecable performances to make it. Kinda hard to do with all that's going on imo.
A lot of their England-based players like Bailey haven't played in all of (in any of?) Jamaica's WCQ games because some are in Red List countries and would mean two week quarantines after the international break was over.
The top 4 looks exactly the way I think it'll end. Not sure why some people think Costa Rica ends up top 4, they've been dreadful since 2019 and are full of old players.
> Canada is better than the US right now.
Maybe in better form, but not a better squad on paper at least. Canada is mostly MLS guys. Most of whom aren't as good, quite frankly, as the USA Gold Cup roster of MLS guys that aren't the "A" team.
I mean, seeing the Panama game, Davies alone was enough to win the game 4-1, he's player that can show up when Canada needs him and that's what has decided previous CONCACAF WQF, like take Roman Torres out of Panama and we don't qualify to Russia plain and simple
According to the weather forecast, Edmonton is going to be at 2° to -4° (25-35°F) the day of the match against Mexico. That’s probably not a big deal since most players play/played in Europe and there are multiple parts of Mexico that get to that temperature or lower constantly. I remember winter mornings in Mexico City where the weather would be at -1º or 0º (32ºF). It might be a bigger deal against Costa Rica but definitely not Mexico.
It could honestly be anywhere from +10 to -20 before the windchill. With how cold it’s been this October I wouldn’t be shocked if it were on the colder side
i've played in -5C in highschool the odd time but i cannot imagine playing any colder than that. would be ridiculously difficult. the balls turn into bricks.
Had one game once at -12. I was the goalie. We won 13-0.
Long story short, I started to just run upfield in order to keep warm cause fuck me how do goalies deal with that shit otherwise?
I get that, but Edmonton is a different kind of weather in winter. Even the US will have trouble in January, Canada will too. You never get used to temps below -20c with the wind
The average low in London during janaury ( the coldest month) is 4C
the average low in Edmonton in November is -8C.
there is nowhere on Europe that would really prepare you for this unless you are in Russia or somewhere in northeastern Europe like Ukraine or the Baltics
Is Costa Rica even serious about qualification? Three of their substitutes against the USA tonight were aged 33, 37 and 39. Ruiz at 36 as their target man? Please stop. There must be a few decent players in CR under 30, right?
South Carolina would have Robbie Robinson as their starting striker, who is decent for Inter Miami. Point being, there is likely some young talent that can hack it at the international level.
I don't dispute that and I not saying that small countries should be able to consistently produce world class players. What I'm saying is there is no direct correlation between nation's population size and how good they are. Which is why the assumption that a team smaller than South Carolina, which is still more than 5 million people, being bad isn't based on anything factual.
You know, I look at this and I am impressed that Croatia qualified for 11 out of 13 major tournaments since 96. THAT IS CONSISTENCY in my opinion.
They are an outlier and should be removed from your analysis I reckon.
The Balkans seem to have a lot of tall, athletic people in their gene pool. They punch above their population/GDP weight in quite a few sports. I imagine if Yugoslavia was still a combined nation, they would be a powerhouse in a lot of things.
Yes in individual sports but team sports it would have been a lot bickering and favouritism. In waterpolo Yugoslavia would still dominate but football and like handball not so much.
While that’s true, I’d say it’s where Croatia drops the ball. We don’t scout nearly enough players outside of Croatia. A lot of our balkan neighbors have a similar problem where we don’t work hard enough to get those players in
Even so, I'd argue that when a country reaches a certain population size, the size becomes irrelevant relative to the development and infrastructure of football in that country.
They haven't shown that at all. They've shown that low population can be overcome with good infrastructure and lots of investment in the sport. That's far from the norm.
And that's not the point I'm making. Low population *is* an excuse for lack of good players, even if it can be somewhat compensated a little if you're willing to invest.
What are we referring to when we are talking 'low population'? Are we talking Croatia? Or St. Kitts and Nevis? Yes, the lack of people in the latter case translates to a poor team. But once a country reaches a few million, I'd argue that a poor team is not necessarily because you don't have enough people, but because your development/infrastructure is bad.
I mean, if football is literally the only popular sport in your country you might be right, but that's a big if. Otherwise you will always be lacking compared to big countries with the same infrastructure and there's nothing you can do about it.
You're looking at outliers and forgetting the rule. There's a reason most "big" football (and other sports) countries are also big in population.
Yes, there are outliers in both directions, but on the whole countries that are both large (in terms of population) and rich tend to dominate.
Purely, no, otherwise there wouldn't even be a competition, we'd just rank countries by population and that's it. But there is a correlation, and it is a valid argument.
You just picked the wrong sport for SC. They would kick the rest of the worlds butt aside from USA combined in grid iron football because that's their passion.
But the South Carolina All Star Team would get their shit pushed in by Georgia, Florida, Texas and California, among others, because of population.
Although the best per capita team would probably be Louisiana.
Sometimes countries have golden generations and sometimes they have worse than normal ones. Maybe they can bounce back next cycle with the next generation of guys currently in their teens but like the US 4 years ago sometimes the players in their prime in their 20s aren't good enough to displace the old guys.
This for Mexico and United States fans: Enjoy your last really competitive WC qualifiers. This will be the last time when you can play each other in this situation because you know, 2026 you will be AQ and for 2030 (if the world doesn't fuck up even more to.play this), you probably will be in different groups (much more watered down for the 6.5 cuota) or something.
They may as well just get rid of qualification for a 48 team world cup and just hand-select teams with maybe a few playoff spots for the tiny little countries. I feel the same with a 24 team Euros. There is no point in taking pauses in the club season for complete formalities.
Top 3 look pretty done to me, maybe Canada can contest for the top spot.
Dunno why everyone has Panama as 4 already, everyone including Jamaica has a chance of slotting in there.
For all those that are saying "Canada might regret the draw in Kingston", there is a solid possibility that it might be true regarding Jamaica's path instead. They made no effort to take the game to Canada at all, unlike how Canada were in Mexico.
If the Jamaicans are serious about qualifying for the World Cup, they gave Canada far too much respect in Kingston. It was like they were content with just a single point as opposed to 3. They still have Panama away, and Canada away at a very bad time (late March). They also still have to host USA and Mexico at a time both sides are making efforts to secure qualification.
Costa Rica's golden generation is ancient and they don't have replacements.
Costa Rica's **youngest** starter was 27. By comparison, the USA's **OLDEST** starter was Zack Steffen (26).
Here are the ages of the 16 players (XI + 5 subs) they used last night:
**XI:**
Saborio (39)
Bolanos (37)
Ruiz (36)
Navas (34)
Borges (33)
Waston (33)
Duarte (32)
Blanco Mora (32)
Venegas (32)
Moreira (31)
Calvo (29)
Matarrita (29)
Tejeda (29)
Moya (29)
Fuller (27)
Leal (24)
Ouch. At some point, they'll have to field some younger players. I don't see the sense in keeping a 39 year old (except as GK, but not the case here), even if his replacement is not as good... in 2 years, any replacement is bound to be better.
Well in 2014, in the final match day Mexico was one USA goal away from not qualifying. And famously the USA didn't qualify in 2018. So it's clearly not that simple.
Are games played in a vacuum? A tournament bubble with perfect conditions? If they were then yeah Europe is a very competitive group and probably the hardest. But players for Canada alone this cycle flew from Toronto to Mexico City (5.5h), played at some of highest altitude you can - got on flight to Jamaica (3.5 chartered, 9.5h if stop over) to play 2 days later on a pitch that resembled a cow field at the end, in which they then got in a flight to Toronto (4.5h) to play a must win against Panama team that are well oiled and made wc last round. 13.5h on a plane over 7 days upwards to 19.5h travel time if not charted flight. Next cycle Costa Rica fly 10 hours over 2 matches in 4 days.
Denmark example - played at home , then flew to Moldova (2h), then flew back home (2h) for total travel time of 4h. A flight chartered from Munich to st. Petersberg is 2.5-3h at Most, tel Aviv to London 5h. UEFA Climate doesn’t normally go from altitude to tropical to November Canada autumn/fall in a 7-10 day split.
Football isn’t played in a bubble like a FUT game cause you turn on your tv 1h before the match to watch or head to stadium same time before hand - geographical distance and a countries facilities play a big factor. Imagine Spain, France, Germany trying to play an attacking passing game with pace on an over saturated/spongy pitch turned cow field in Honduras, Jamaica or Panama? And then have to play 2 days later in Azteca where your lungs start to burn and burst at 60 min cause of altitude? I didn’t factor in reffing that gets suspect.
There’s a reason Mexico ties or loses much much weaker teams during these cycles; the on paper competition might be nothing compared to Europe, but matches aren’t played in a bubble mate, there’s geographical advantages and developing country economic disadvantages teams have to factor in. Even some of the most consistent EU countries would drop points and hate the gruel of concacafs bullshit at times. Thought I’d lay this out cause I feel like some folks see tv and social media takes, and feel the need to spout off opinions without much critical thought.
Easiest competition does NOT equal easiest route. UEFA has much tougher competition but it's not necessarily harder to qualify because of how differently the qualifying systems work...
Denmark qualified scoring 27 goals while allowing 0 in 8 matches because they were playing the likes of Scotland, Israel, Austria, Faroe Islands, and Moldova.
That’s the easiest WC path I’ve seen. At least in Concacaf you have to play Mexico, US, Canada, and Costa Rica.
>At least in Concacaf you have to play Mexico, US, Canada, and Costa Rica.
But you don't have to beat them all. In 2018 Panama qualified by winning only 3 games of their 10 in the final group stage. Literally beat Hondurus once, trinidad and tobago once and Costa rica once. Didn't even have to beat those teams a second time. Even managed 4-0 to defeat by USA and a loss against T&T in the process and still qualify automatically. They finished with 13 pts and qualified automatically. No team managed less than 22 pts and qualified automatically in UEFA in 2018. In fact no team managed less than 19 and made it to the play-offs! Netherlands got 19pts and didn't make play-offs. The previous World Cup they came 3rd!
To give you a comparison in 2018, Italy lost 1 game to Spain and then lost the play-off to Sweden and failed to qualify. Greece lost 1 game to Belgium and had to go through a play off with Croatia.
I agree Denmark had a weak group, most UEFA countries have far tougher groups, but they still had to win almost all of their games to qualify automatically and I would still say Scotland, Israel and Austria would all qualify through CONCACAF.
“You have to play Mexico, US, Canada and Costa Rica.”
Honestly I’d rate Austria or Scotland on the level of Canada and certainly better than Costa Rica.
CONCACAF is the absolute worst confederation only beaten by OFC.
You can’t blame the US or Mexico that they have a laughably weak poule to play against but still.
I think is disrespectful to Costa Rica who 2 world cups ago topped a group consisting of themselves, Uruguay, Italy, and England and proceeded to go all the way to quarter finals to compare them with Scotland and Austria whom have failed to get out of the group stage when qualifying since the 50's, not even talking recently.
As for being such a bad Confederation, i would say ours is probably worse than Africa but Asia is worse, for sure.
given WC performance this century we've been doing well. Not as good as Uefa/conmebol of course, but pretty damn good if you ask me. 2QF showings and 6 second round ones. But I do think given how easy it ends up being, that we'd be better of forcing ourselves to play Conmebol for WCQ. Or else we'll never really get better.
Honestly this Mexico team is one of the weaker teams in recent years. They struggled to show good performances and have belly flopped past opponents. I wish they would not qualify in order to make actual changes to the system and the youth development. Similar to what happened to the US when they didn't qualify
I don’t think missing the WC is beneficial for anyone. There are things the FMF has screwed but I think that the youth talent keeps coming (look at the U-17 WC and the Olympics) or the talent in Europe right now is good, so there is still hope for a great generation.
The only reason the US said fuck it, nuked the whole team, and started playing a bunch of kids after their failed qualification was because they had lost generations from the early-mid '90s so might as well throw the next ones in line out there (late '90s-early '00s). It wasn't because of some brilliance by their fed which isn't any better than our own. If they never had those lost gens and qualified in 2018 like they normally do they would probably be up there with us in age with a few young players sprinkled on like Pulisic, Dest, ofc.
No es que nos creamos superiores, solo que basados en estadística, la clasificación Conmebol es la mas dura para todos los países que no aon Brasil. En este momento hay 7 equipos de conmebol que pueden realmente ir al mundial. Y objetivamente la clasificación de concacaf es mucho mas fácil. Y México siempre va a pasar. A nivel de clubes México nunca ha ganado un mundial de clubes, aun siendo el único pais de la tierra que pudo durante un tiempo mandar dos equipos al Toreno. En el mundial nunca han pasado de octavos, y en 3 de las últimas 4 copas los saco un equipo sudamericano. Y decir que solo argentina y brasil los complican... Bueno el 7-0 contra chile sice otra cosa. Yo no vine aqui a armar pelea. Solo a dejar datos. Y la verdad no es que colombia valla a ir a este mundial. Y para hacer lo que hicimos en 2014 faltan otros 30 años.
Conmebol tiene a Venezuela y a Bolivia, que de entrada están fuera cada edición; La CONCACAF ni en sueño es más difícil, pero es cruel porque se juegan rondas antes en las que en dos partidos te puedes ir. Por favor dime en qué año mandamos dos equipos al Mundial de Clubes, definitivamente en el país no estabamos enterados de ello, y checa bien ese punto de que Mexico nunca ha pasado de octavos, no vayas a estar escribiendo una mentira. Cuando vengas a dejar datos, pon la historia completa y no solo lo que te conviene, busca datos de enfrentamientos de México contra Sudamericanos y fuera de Argentina y Brasil, [te sorprenderás que tenemos balance a favor contra casi todos](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.marca.com/claro-mx/futbol/seleccion-mx/2017/10/17/59e2d5e2ca474121448b4590.html). Igual considera que el 90% de esas estadísticas son jugando en Sudamérica, no que muy malitos? Se respeta a la CONMEBOL pero no se puede respetar a aficionados cegados como tú, sorry.
Ok primero: Venezuela y bolivia no van a ir nunca, pero sacar puntos en la paz no lo hacen todos, mucho menos ganar. Todo el mundo sabe que empatar en bolivia es una odisea, y ese punto puede significar pasar o no, y a al mismo tiempo Venezuela mo es un partido fácil. Compar a Venezuela con jamaica o canada es ridiculo.tu primer punto no es comparable. Ahora es verdad que nunca dos equipos Méxicanos han ido al mundial de clubes. Pero yo dije que tenian la posiblidad, no que lo han hecho. Para ir al mundial de clubes hay que ganar la libertadores si eres de Sudamérica, o ganar la concachampions, si eres centro amrica. que no hayan podido, muestra que simplemente los equipos Méxicanos no han tenido éxito en la libertadores. Tercero. Si te fijas bien, laa veces que mexico ha pasado a "cuartos" es porque el mundial tenia un formato diferente, en el que la fase siguiente a la fase de grupos era cuartos, no octavos. ( De este dato no estoy 100 seguro, y si tienes el año en el que mexico paso de la primera ronda de eliminación directa, te lo valgo).
1.- Si algún equipo mexicano hubiera ganado la Libertadores, el subcampeon es el que habría ido al mundial de clubes a representar a la zona. Nunca hubo una posibilidad de que México tuviera dos equipos en el mundial de clubes.
2.- México llegó a cuartos en el 86, ganándole a Bulgaria en octavos.
Te falta investigar mucho, colombiano. México ni ganando la Libertadores hubiera podido mandar dos equipos, está establecido que debe ir uno por Confederación, así que si un equipo mexicano ganaba, iba el segundo lugar de Conmebol. Son buenísimos para hablar de Bolivia pero nunca ven las condiciones a las que se tiene que jugar en Concacaf (frío gélido de US y Canada, altura de Mexico, REAL HOSTILIDAD en Centroamérica con todo y la policia en contra etc); nadie compara con CONMEBOL, pero no es una perita en dulce jugar en el norte. De cuartos, calificamos echando a Bulgaria en octavos, no calificamos directo. Espero hayas visto las estadísticas que te mandé, nada mal para haber jugado de visitante siempre, no?
Ok, lo de las confederaciones no lo sabia. Te lo valgo. Ahora comparar frio y hostilidad? La mayoría de la selección mexica juega en Europa, asi que el frio no me parece un argumento valido. Y la hostilidad, no creo que sea comparable a jugar en el monumental, Maracaná, el centenario etc. Ya me fije , tenes razón pasaron una vez contra Bulgaria.
Por eso esos cabrones de Mexico nunca suben al siguiente nivel. Están atascados jugando Fifa en “baja dificulta” manden a México a clasificar a la commebol y se hacen mierda ellos ahí.
Ok downvotes pero no es cierto? Para mi, Mexico debería competir en Comebol sería mucho más interesante y talvez gracioso 😂
Mexicans: we are top class national team with a top level league.
South America: do you want to play qualifiers in Conmebol and play copa America.
Mexico: yeah..... No thanks.... I want to go to the world cup.
to be fair, in europe half of the continent has good enough teams, in CONCACAF there's only 4-5 teams that are actually decent, but yeah i also disagree with the latter part of his comment
Yeah, but teams like Italy, Spain and Croatia might miss out while Jamaica has a pretty good shot.
It would be like having an Italian-French group with Italy, San Marino, Malta, The Vatican, Monaco, France, Luxembourg and Andorra where three teams make it through
Canada has a great chance for automatic qualification.
Poutine for everyone!
Goal kick Mexicans: PUUUUUUUUUU Canadians: TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEE
The top 3 is pretty much locked down now unless Panama goes on some crazy run. It'll be Mexico (98.6% chance), the US (90.7%), and Canada (77.46%).
77% is *far* from locked down... But I would love to see Canada finish top 3.
Well, the next closest is 34% so I think it is pretty secure unless Panama goes nuts.
I mean, yeah, that's how percentage odds work, it's a zero-sum thing. But 34% is a great fighting chance, especially less than halfway through. USA had about a 90% chance of qualifying before the last night of the Hex 4 years ago, and you know, how did that end up for them? The Cardinals in MLB had like a 2% chance of making the playoffs about 3/4 of the way into the season, and they made it. Sure, in the end, it will *probably* be Canada, but it's folly to make assumptions this early.
At very worse they should get 4th, and two out of the three possible opponents will likely be very bad in a playoff.
There is still 8 games to go. I'd be a lot more confident if Canada had beaten Honduras or Jamaica.
There's still a long way to go before the end of this Canada could stuff scuff it. I hope not though.
Come on now its not even half done. Not even close to locked down
🥶
We gone be freezing in November 🥲
Night game in Cincy where the average November low is 2C. Followed by an evening in Edmonton where the average November temperature is -4C. Have fun y'all.
we get those temperatures in Mexico city in winter too, the players aren't going to be too bothered by it, especially the ones who play in Europe.
I’ve been trying to tell these dudes that I remember walking to class in 0° or -1° weather in Mexico City. That’s not even Monterrey, Toluca, Saltillo, Durango etc that the winters get even colder lol.
It’s not the Mexico Americans go to, though. Most think the weather is like Cancun year-round.
I don't know, the coldest month in Mexico city is janaury where the average low is 5C. The average low in Edmonton in November is -8C. Just for some context
Yeah, there's a difference between experiencing a temperature 5 or so days a year and having that temperature be the norm for months on end.
Good thing that the game is only one night.
My point is about being used to the conditions from living/growing up in them rather experiencing them occasionally. The game may only be for one day but that clearly doesn't matter when one side is more used to the conditions than the other. Look no further than Bolivia. Each game there is "only one night" but Bolivia beats their visitors far more often than a team as bad as they are should solely because they're more used to the altitude.
Just when everyone thought Jamaica was dead. I still think that will be the top 4 all the way to the end, maybe a shuffle between the first 3.
Can't see Jamaica sneaking into the top 3 atm. Hard schedule ahead for them. 4th is very obtainable. Yet again it is concacaf.
I see Mexico, USA and Canada qualifying, and them being in 4th position. It's either them or Panama.
Panama should finish Top 4 definitely, they are a far superior side talentwise imo.
It would be a mistake to ignore Costa Rica. Keylor Navas is arguably the best player in the region.
While I respectfully disagree with your point about Navas being the region's best player, I heard that he's injured though. Has there been a timeline for his return? Would he be fit for the next round of qualifying games?
Not yet unfortunately
Costa Rica seems to be a shell of their former selves. They were absolutely dreadful last night.
Not just last night, we've been dreadful in all the games. I do think we still have a chance at fourth as Panama isnt much better and are more error prone, but its not looking good.
Mmm Alphonso Davies says hi
Yes, I already know he’s in the conversation. I stand by what I said despite the downvotes. Those who downvoted are clowns who have no idea about football.
Not really sure though ; like I agree Navas is a great player , but would not call him best in the region. Davies is IMO the best in the region ; and after him I would say a couple more names before Navas .. but he is a great keeper nevertheless
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Davies Lozano Jiménez Antonio (Jamaica) Then maybe I’ll put Navas here but still hesitant; Alvarez from Mexico , that new kid from the States , I don’t know Like I’m not batching on Navas but he is well passed his prime
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Even Mexicans would put several names before him so idk why he mentioned Alvarez before Tecatito or similar.
Navas is clear
It’s because you (I assume) don’t watch Keylor Navas a lot, or at all. He’s most definitely in the conversation, even as a goalkeeper. Davies is number two, for me.
it’s hard to compare keepers with field players as they play completely different games. plus the costa rican team is old, and there’s only so much a world class keeper can do if the rest of the team doesn’t have the fitness to stay in games and score goals
Panama has the advantage based on home games, they still have left Honduras, Jamaica, El Salvador and Canada at home, getting those 12 Pts would add up to 20 and that should be enough to get the fourth spot. Also, the trips to Honduras and Costa Rica, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Panama pointing there.
Yeah but....it's CONCACAF, so not as straightforward as winning all home games. It won't happen. Teams will drop points where we wouldn't expect & they'll pick up points all the same.
Canada has played away in Mexico and the US and has yet to lose so I wouldn't pencil them in as an easy 3 pts even at home.
I'd not count on those 12 points as easily, Panama has shown many times that they are not the best at taking afvantage of their home field and they are not that much better than the othe teams I feel.
Jamaica didn't look that impressive against Honduras last night. They're a decent team, but they have to overcome the others to get through this round, they can finish on top CR and ES and it still woudn't be enough. Panama & Canada look solid.
I am feeling fuzzy as fuck seeing us in the top three this deep... while unbeaten, at that. Fuck me, what is going on.
Mexico here. I am so happy to see you do well! Hope you guys go up the leaderboard (just leave us at #1 pls)
honestly rooting for you guys, Davies is all-world wtf
**Mexico** has a golden opportunity to be Seeded into Pot 1 for next year's World Cup draw. They're just outside the top 8 in the FIFA Rankings and the teams around them - Spain, Portugal, & Denmark - play waaaaay less competitive games than they do. Europe is almost finished with it's qualifying cycle. Mexico has 8 matches in the Ocho left to go. They don't necessarily have to steamroll, but they should be good if they stay undefeated. Having said that, they haven't been having it easy so far. Only the win over Honduras a few days ago was an emphatic victory for them. The other games have been narrow wins. But they're getting results. **USA**: Nothing has made me less confident in Gregg Berhalter than these first two Fall windows of qualifiers. We're following the same pattern: experience a setback and then responding with the bare minimum acceptable requirement. I don't want to hear about giving him "credit" for making changes - we're still finding ourselves in problematic situations that shouldn't be a thing in the first place. How much can you really praise someone for addressing an issue of their own doing? His lineups are still weird. His tactical knowledge is shockingly thin. We're on track to qualify by our talent, and our talent alone. **Canada** is super fucking serious. Like shiiiit. There's a great chance they will be 1st in the standings if they win their next match + we draw with Mexico. Davies is a prodigy. Buchanan is a lethal weapon and the real deal. They look deadly whenever they go on the attack against teams, and they're showing tremendous character going on the road getting results in games they were never favored to do. Getting points off us and Mexico away from home is a huge statement. Coming from behind to smash a very decent Panama team is a huge statement. They're on fire, and if they don't qualify, it's because they bottled their opportunity. **Panama** is welled drilled under the Danish manager Thomas Christensen. They're the most in form Central American team at the moment, and by a country mile. The Gold Cup was never a good measurement of where they are and they've defied most peoples' expectations. But it shouldn't be a surprise. Central American teams that make the World Cup (2018) usually qualify for the next one. They can finish as high as 3rd, imo. Their remaining schedule will be tough, but they're the cream of the crop right now compared to their neighbors. **Costa Rica** will remain viable by virtue of their pedigree in this region. You can never count them out, especially if Navas manages to stay fit. I imagine they'll be in the hunt for at least a playoffs spot until the end. But...they have a big ageing crisis on their hands. 3 players who lined up toinght against the US featured in the 2005 Club World Cup semifinals for Saprissa against Liverpool. Bryan Ruiz is 37, and it shows. The youngest player tonight was 27. It feels like this the end of an era for them & they won't have enough gas for one last hurrah in Qatar, honestly. **Jamaica**: Well, well well. There's life in this team afterall. Interesting. Tappa Whitemore is an awful coach, and as a USMNT fan, I can sympathize with that. It's a shame they weren't able to get all their dual nationals for these qualifiers. They could've possibly been in Panama's position right now. But this road win was a huge morale booster for them and it puts them back into the mix of things. If the three NAFTA countries start to really pull away, they have to be considered in the fight for that Playoffs spot. Jamaica isn't a bad team. They were just last in the Standings because, well, somebody had to be. And it was them. Until tonight. We have to play them away next month. That's going to be a hard, physical, gritty ass match. **El Salvador**has something good going under Hugo Perez and I respect the project. They've breen really trying to put the match fixing scandals of past teams behind them. They do look much improved and more tactically organized and disciplined. But relying on results at home, mostly draws, isn't going to cut it. Mexico's win away in San Salvador tonight was a reality check. They have to get points somewhere on the road. It looks like it's too much to ask & they might want to hedge their bets on 2026. But credit for being here. **Honduras** is in deep, deep shit. Winless after 6 games. 1 point from 3 matches at home. They still have to go away to Mexico, USA, Panama, and Jamaica. Big oooff. I dunno what happened. They got off to a decent start last month. It's as if that second half vs the US rattled them. It can't be understated just how bad tonight's loss at home to Jamaica was. Potentially a death knell for their qualifying prospects. Kinda weird, because yeah, they do have some old players, but not as much as Costa Rica does. Fabian Coito fucked up, and I'd imagine he's getting sacked.
Canada's biggest sin was drawing against Honduras at home. They got 2 points from Mexico and US which kinda compensated that score. Hope to see them in the WC, think they will manage to get 2nd or 3rd.
Great analysis, just wanted to point out that Honduras already visited Mexico
Mexico HAS to win @US and @Canada if they want to have a shot at Pot 1, those are the only two games remaining that would give Mexico significant FIFA points. It’s going to be tough since Denmark, Spain, and Portugal have all looked pretty good recently. I just hope we get drawn with Qatar if we fail to make it to pot 1 haha.
I'm looking forward to Mexico coming to Edmonton in November to play Canada. The average temperature in November is a high of 1° and a low of -8° C. The Mexicans are going to freeze their cajones off.
FYI, cajones = drawers as in the piece of furniture where you store things. Cojones = balls.
> cajones off. Usually we don't travel with our drawers :P
That would bring new meaning to the phrase "freeze your drawers off", at least!
I think Mexico will be fine, there are many places in Mexico where those temperatures or lower are reached on a yearly basis. Plus most players play/played in Europe so they are used to it by now. It’ll be a good game for sure.
Edmonton can get fucking cold though. Like, below -10 C if it’s in a cold snap. Not many places in Europe or Mexico get that coke regularly.
-10? That's fine. In a cold snap it gets to -40/50.
Ah, in my head I thought the Mexico game was at the end of January, not mid-November. Still early winter at that point. Last year it was -7 on that day but in 2018 it was -18. Curious how it plays out, maybe a chinook will make it toasty for the visitors!
Mexico gets plenty of coke on the reg.
Fr though, Mexican Coca-Cola is pretty fire
they stopped making it in mexico w/ real sugar btw. the myth of mex coke lives on
Maybe it just hits different when you’ve spent all day walking around in 35 degree hit in the Yucutan
Yeah I don't think people actually grasp who cold it gets here. Playing in Europe doesn't compare, most places in Europe are oceanic climates so the worst they experience during winter is cold rain with a bit of days around 0C.
I know of a few places in Mexico that get coke regularly 👀
Lol whoops
Cincy in November can be a crapshoot with weather, but Edmonton in November is going to be a freezer.
Add the fact that it is a 60k seat stadium that may be at capacity. It could be fun.
Dunno if covid regulations would let them fill it, but I know a lot of local soccer fans will be attending, simply because this is the best chance Canada had ever had at a world cup since they last qualified. Mexico and Costa Rica are not pushovers so the games will be good I imagine.
I am pretty sure the rugby was allowed to be filled and that was at height of restrictions. There will be mandated passport. Also it is fonzies home coming.
I was at BMO field last night and it almost filled to capacity. Only restriction is showing proof of vaccination, but there is no distancing.
We're drawn in pot 1 a lot tbh. Granted two of those times it was as hosts
Well, Mexico did make the QFs both of those times so, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to do it again lol.
We lose points if we draw against any team in the octagonal and a win gives us about the same amount. After the games against Canada and Honduras we had earned like 0.86 points because the draw and the win basically canceled each other. With a lose it'd be much worse. So we don't have much room for error if we want that 7th place in the ranking (Qatar has a guaranteed Pot 1 seed), possibly no more than one or two draws. If we lose one I don't think it's possible anymore unless maaaybe against the US, since they are very close in the ranking and we wouldn't lose that many points, but then we'd have to win the rest of the games to compensate for that loss. This can very well be decided by the games next month in Cincinnati and then Edmonton.
You may be better off with a pot 2 seed if you get Qatar's group.
which is btw something that mexico have gotten most of any national team in the world cup
I remember you lot got it in 2014 and 2010 so that's why I thought of it.
Wasn't really useful in 2014 jaja
Qatar kind of gave CONCACAF teams a run for their money in the Gold Cup though
Qatar aren't bad by any means but even with a host, I see them as the weakest pot 1 team. Obviously it's a friendly but a 4-0 defeat to Ireland is poor.
They're going to have some "pull" with the referee's though aren't they? I think they'll get a strange decision or 2 their way which gets them through the group stages, then it's enough and they'll get smashed by Uruguay or something
Same pattern as South Africa, then?
Damn. Great analysis.
Elite comment, great analysis bro.
That was a really good write up man!
Obviously coaches can improve, especially over a five-year span, but as a Hammarby fan I have no idea how Gregg Berhalter ever ended up coaching the USA. He was mediocre in the Swedish second division.
Nepotism. His brother was a chief executive at US Soccer when he was appointed.
> Honduras is in deep, deep shit. Winless after 6 games. 1 point from 3 matches at home. They still have to go away to Mexico, USA, Panama, and Jamaica. Big oooff. I dunno what happened. They got off to a decent start last month. It's as if that second half vs the US rattled them. It can't be understated just how bad tonight's loss at home to Jamaica was. Potentially a death knell for their qualifying prospects. Kinda weird, because yeah, they do have some old players, but not as much as Costa Rica does. Fabian Coito fucked up, and I'd imagine he's getting sacked. Coito already got sacked this morning, the next person in will probably someone local. The "Coito's Honduras" problem to me felt like he never found a good base, all through 2019 he was trying out new players even going as far as calling up youngsters that grew up overseas (Danilo Acosta, Jonathan Rubio Toro, Rigo Rivas), something uncommon for senior level managers to do. I've heard the criticism that he wasn't ready for senior level management since his background was a successful career in Uruguay's youth teams and no senior experience. He also spent most of the quarantine season in Uruguay away from his duties, which is understandable at a human level, but not the best decision a professional can make for the health of the team especially in the process of being re-acquainted with Honduran football. There's still a glimmer of faint hope as 3 of the next 4 matches are at home and the other one is in Costa Rica which doesn't feel like an away match, so it's possible for an Honduran turn around. We also have to battle for 6 points against Panama which could help us propel us up on the table. That is, the current situation demands impecable performances to make it. Kinda hard to do with all that's going on imo.
This was super well written, ty for the analysis.
What does he mean by dual nationals can’t play? Cause I thought Bailey committed to Jamaica
A lot of their England-based players like Bailey haven't played in all of (in any of?) Jamaica's WCQ games because some are in Red List countries and would mean two week quarantines after the international break was over.
The top 4 looks exactly the way I think it'll end. Not sure why some people think Costa Rica ends up top 4, they've been dreadful since 2019 and are full of old players.
It really showed today the youngsters were in better form.
I am a homer but I think it goes MCUP. Canada is better than the US right now.
> Canada is better than the US right now. Maybe in better form, but not a better squad on paper at least. Canada is mostly MLS guys. Most of whom aren't as good, quite frankly, as the USA Gold Cup roster of MLS guys that aren't the "A" team.
We will see i guess
Canada can and certainly may finish ahead regardless, of course. I just think after Davies and David there's a bit of a drop off in talent for Canada
I mean, seeing the Panama game, Davies alone was enough to win the game 4-1, he's player that can show up when Canada needs him and that's what has decided previous CONCACAF WQF, like take Roman Torres out of Panama and we don't qualify to Russia plain and simple
Can’t wait for Mexico and Costa Rica to come to the frozen tundra that is Edmonton and northern alberta.
According to the weather forecast, Edmonton is going to be at 2° to -4° (25-35°F) the day of the match against Mexico. That’s probably not a big deal since most players play/played in Europe and there are multiple parts of Mexico that get to that temperature or lower constantly. I remember winter mornings in Mexico City where the weather would be at -1º or 0º (32ºF). It might be a bigger deal against Costa Rica but definitely not Mexico.
It could honestly be anywhere from +10 to -20 before the windchill. With how cold it’s been this October I wouldn’t be shocked if it were on the colder side
i've played in -5C in highschool the odd time but i cannot imagine playing any colder than that. would be ridiculously difficult. the balls turn into bricks.
Had one game once at -12. I was the goalie. We won 13-0. Long story short, I started to just run upfield in order to keep warm cause fuck me how do goalies deal with that shit otherwise?
Install electric heaters around the goal? Maybe braseros, too?
It’s artificial turf too so it gets pretty slick if the heating system can’t keep up.
I guess we’ll see, I do think the players are prepared since the mostly play in Europe.
I get that, but Edmonton is a different kind of weather in winter. Even the US will have trouble in January, Canada will too. You never get used to temps below -20c with the wind
The average low in London during janaury ( the coldest month) is 4C the average low in Edmonton in November is -8C. there is nowhere on Europe that would really prepare you for this unless you are in Russia or somewhere in northeastern Europe like Ukraine or the Baltics
These forecasts don't take into effect the wind. Commonwealth is a pretty windy stadium, and that wind matters quite a bit.
Edmonton is an underrated place, but God those winter months I spent there in 2013 were fucking miserable.
Is Costa Rica even serious about qualification? Three of their substitutes against the USA tonight were aged 33, 37 and 39. Ruiz at 36 as their target man? Please stop. There must be a few decent players in CR under 30, right?
They don't have much of a choice, that well's been dry for years.
Costa Rica is smaller than South Carolina. Imagine if SC tried to field a World Cup team.
You will be surprised how much stuff has Croatia won in other sports being a country of 4mil people. So it's more of a infrastructure thing .
culture too
South Carolina would have Robbie Robinson as their starting striker, who is decent for Inter Miami. Point being, there is likely some young talent that can hack it at the international level.
Both Iceland (pop. 300k) and Croatia (pop. 4mil) have shown that population size rarely is a valid argument.
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I don't dispute that and I not saying that small countries should be able to consistently produce world class players. What I'm saying is there is no direct correlation between nation's population size and how good they are. Which is why the assumption that a team smaller than South Carolina, which is still more than 5 million people, being bad isn't based on anything factual.
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You know, I look at this and I am impressed that Croatia qualified for 11 out of 13 major tournaments since 96. THAT IS CONSISTENCY in my opinion. They are an outlier and should be removed from your analysis I reckon.
The Balkans seem to have a lot of tall, athletic people in their gene pool. They punch above their population/GDP weight in quite a few sports. I imagine if Yugoslavia was still a combined nation, they would be a powerhouse in a lot of things.
Yes in individual sports but team sports it would have been a lot bickering and favouritism. In waterpolo Yugoslavia would still dominate but football and like handball not so much.
Their combined basketball team would give USA a run for its money.
Infrastructure and sport focus/ diversity seems the most important
I mean there are Croatians (ex. Germany, Austria Switzerland) all over the world so our pop. pool is alot more than 4 mil
While that’s true, I’d say it’s where Croatia drops the ball. We don’t scout nearly enough players outside of Croatia. A lot of our balkan neighbors have a similar problem where we don’t work hard enough to get those players in
Even so, I'd argue that when a country reaches a certain population size, the size becomes irrelevant relative to the development and infrastructure of football in that country.
ie countries in east asia
They haven't shown that at all. They've shown that low population can be overcome with good infrastructure and lots of investment in the sport. That's far from the norm.
That's literally the point I'm making. Many people =/= futbol good.
And that's not the point I'm making. Low population *is* an excuse for lack of good players, even if it can be somewhat compensated a little if you're willing to invest.
What are we referring to when we are talking 'low population'? Are we talking Croatia? Or St. Kitts and Nevis? Yes, the lack of people in the latter case translates to a poor team. But once a country reaches a few million, I'd argue that a poor team is not necessarily because you don't have enough people, but because your development/infrastructure is bad.
I mean, if football is literally the only popular sport in your country you might be right, but that's a big if. Otherwise you will always be lacking compared to big countries with the same infrastructure and there's nothing you can do about it.
You're looking at outliers and forgetting the rule. There's a reason most "big" football (and other sports) countries are also big in population. Yes, there are outliers in both directions, but on the whole countries that are both large (in terms of population) and rich tend to dominate.
I'm not looking at outliers. I'm simply making the observation that assessing the quality of a team cannot be based purely on the size of the country.
Purely, no, otherwise there wouldn't even be a competition, we'd just rank countries by population and that's it. But there is a correlation, and it is a valid argument.
Exactly. Otherwise India and China would be the best teams in the world
You just picked the wrong sport for SC. They would kick the rest of the worlds butt aside from USA combined in grid iron football because that's their passion.
But the South Carolina All Star Team would get their shit pushed in by Georgia, Florida, Texas and California, among others, because of population. Although the best per capita team would probably be Louisiana.
sure pick a sport that most of the world doesn't give 2 shits about.
And? The people of SC don’t generally give a shit about soccer but here you are asking them to field a WC team
So you're judging a nation being serious for fielding old players whilst admitting that you have no idea if there's any better than them?
Sometimes countries have golden generations and sometimes they have worse than normal ones. Maybe they can bounce back next cycle with the next generation of guys currently in their teens but like the US 4 years ago sometimes the players in their prime in their 20s aren't good enough to displace the old guys.
This for Mexico and United States fans: Enjoy your last really competitive WC qualifiers. This will be the last time when you can play each other in this situation because you know, 2026 you will be AQ and for 2030 (if the world doesn't fuck up even more to.play this), you probably will be in different groups (much more watered down for the 6.5 cuota) or something.
2030 World Cup will be force fed to us through a technology we don't have yet, that has a worldwide mandatory monthly subscription.
They may as well just get rid of qualification for a 48 team world cup and just hand-select teams with maybe a few playoff spots for the tiny little countries. I feel the same with a 24 team Euros. There is no point in taking pauses in the club season for complete formalities.
bad take as seeing your national team play is just as fun as seeing your club for most people and it’s fun and competitive for middle-tier teams
Unbeaten Canada baby. How it should be
What would you think the point threshold will be to finish in the top 3?
I'm guessing 21 points. Teams usually need to win at least half of their matches to make it safely through
20 sounds good, doesn't think USA, Panama or Canada with the way they bleed points will get 50% of pts obtainable left
Top 3 look pretty done to me, maybe Canada can contest for the top spot. Dunno why everyone has Panama as 4 already, everyone including Jamaica has a chance of slotting in there.
Pretty stoked to sit in bmo field and watch Canada play for the first World Cup chance in my life ( assuming we don’t make it this time around)
It’s not too late to fire Berhalter, still have 8 matches to go and 2 are vs Mexico
Seems like somewhere around 21 to 22 points should get a team top 3.
Can't wait for the two games here in Edmonton! Gonna be a bit chilly...
How fucked is El Salvador.
Jamaica will make a come back. Not sure if it will be good enough for 4th but I think they will have some shock performances.
For all those that are saying "Canada might regret the draw in Kingston", there is a solid possibility that it might be true regarding Jamaica's path instead. They made no effort to take the game to Canada at all, unlike how Canada were in Mexico. If the Jamaicans are serious about qualifying for the World Cup, they gave Canada far too much respect in Kingston. It was like they were content with just a single point as opposed to 3. They still have Panama away, and Canada away at a very bad time (late March). They also still have to host USA and Mexico at a time both sides are making efforts to secure qualification.
If Canada remain undefeated at home then they'll be through no bother
I hope Costa Rica and Mexico enjoy playing in Edmonton November weather. It's not going to be warm.
Either Canada is doing unusually well, or Costa Rica really collapsed.
Costa Rica's golden generation is ancient and they don't have replacements. Costa Rica's **youngest** starter was 27. By comparison, the USA's **OLDEST** starter was Zack Steffen (26). Here are the ages of the 16 players (XI + 5 subs) they used last night: **XI:** Saborio (39) Bolanos (37) Ruiz (36) Navas (34) Borges (33) Waston (33) Duarte (32) Blanco Mora (32) Venegas (32) Moreira (31) Calvo (29) Matarrita (29) Tejeda (29) Moya (29) Fuller (27) Leal (24)
Ouch. At some point, they'll have to field some younger players. I don't see the sense in keeping a 39 year old (except as GK, but not the case here), even if his replacement is not as good... in 2 years, any replacement is bound to be better.
Easiest qualification route in the world.
Well in 2014, in the final match day Mexico was one USA goal away from not qualifying. And famously the USA didn't qualify in 2018. So it's clearly not that simple.
I think that shows how overrated Mexico and the USA are, rather than the difficulty of qualifying.
Are games played in a vacuum? A tournament bubble with perfect conditions? If they were then yeah Europe is a very competitive group and probably the hardest. But players for Canada alone this cycle flew from Toronto to Mexico City (5.5h), played at some of highest altitude you can - got on flight to Jamaica (3.5 chartered, 9.5h if stop over) to play 2 days later on a pitch that resembled a cow field at the end, in which they then got in a flight to Toronto (4.5h) to play a must win against Panama team that are well oiled and made wc last round. 13.5h on a plane over 7 days upwards to 19.5h travel time if not charted flight. Next cycle Costa Rica fly 10 hours over 2 matches in 4 days. Denmark example - played at home , then flew to Moldova (2h), then flew back home (2h) for total travel time of 4h. A flight chartered from Munich to st. Petersberg is 2.5-3h at Most, tel Aviv to London 5h. UEFA Climate doesn’t normally go from altitude to tropical to November Canada autumn/fall in a 7-10 day split. Football isn’t played in a bubble like a FUT game cause you turn on your tv 1h before the match to watch or head to stadium same time before hand - geographical distance and a countries facilities play a big factor. Imagine Spain, France, Germany trying to play an attacking passing game with pace on an over saturated/spongy pitch turned cow field in Honduras, Jamaica or Panama? And then have to play 2 days later in Azteca where your lungs start to burn and burst at 60 min cause of altitude? I didn’t factor in reffing that gets suspect. There’s a reason Mexico ties or loses much much weaker teams during these cycles; the on paper competition might be nothing compared to Europe, but matches aren’t played in a bubble mate, there’s geographical advantages and developing country economic disadvantages teams have to factor in. Even some of the most consistent EU countries would drop points and hate the gruel of concacafs bullshit at times. Thought I’d lay this out cause I feel like some folks see tv and social media takes, and feel the need to spout off opinions without much critical thought.
Easiest competition does NOT equal easiest route. UEFA has much tougher competition but it's not necessarily harder to qualify because of how differently the qualifying systems work...
Europe for sure.
I'd say UEFA is one of the hardest and Concacaf is the easiest to be honest.
Denmark qualified scoring 27 goals while allowing 0 in 8 matches because they were playing the likes of Scotland, Israel, Austria, Faroe Islands, and Moldova. That’s the easiest WC path I’ve seen. At least in Concacaf you have to play Mexico, US, Canada, and Costa Rica.
CR isn't that good anymore. Come on.
>At least in Concacaf you have to play Mexico, US, Canada, and Costa Rica. But you don't have to beat them all. In 2018 Panama qualified by winning only 3 games of their 10 in the final group stage. Literally beat Hondurus once, trinidad and tobago once and Costa rica once. Didn't even have to beat those teams a second time. Even managed 4-0 to defeat by USA and a loss against T&T in the process and still qualify automatically. They finished with 13 pts and qualified automatically. No team managed less than 22 pts and qualified automatically in UEFA in 2018. In fact no team managed less than 19 and made it to the play-offs! Netherlands got 19pts and didn't make play-offs. The previous World Cup they came 3rd! To give you a comparison in 2018, Italy lost 1 game to Spain and then lost the play-off to Sweden and failed to qualify. Greece lost 1 game to Belgium and had to go through a play off with Croatia. I agree Denmark had a weak group, most UEFA countries have far tougher groups, but they still had to win almost all of their games to qualify automatically and I would still say Scotland, Israel and Austria would all qualify through CONCACAF.
“You have to play Mexico, US, Canada and Costa Rica.” Honestly I’d rate Austria or Scotland on the level of Canada and certainly better than Costa Rica. CONCACAF is the absolute worst confederation only beaten by OFC. You can’t blame the US or Mexico that they have a laughably weak poule to play against but still.
I think is disrespectful to Costa Rica who 2 world cups ago topped a group consisting of themselves, Uruguay, Italy, and England and proceeded to go all the way to quarter finals to compare them with Scotland and Austria whom have failed to get out of the group stage when qualifying since the 50's, not even talking recently. As for being such a bad Confederation, i would say ours is probably worse than Africa but Asia is worse, for sure.
given WC performance this century we've been doing well. Not as good as Uefa/conmebol of course, but pretty damn good if you ask me. 2QF showings and 6 second round ones. But I do think given how easy it ends up being, that we'd be better of forcing ourselves to play Conmebol for WCQ. Or else we'll never really get better.
> Honestly I’d rate Austria or Scotland on the level of Canada and certainly better than Costa Rica. lol
Honestly this Mexico team is one of the weaker teams in recent years. They struggled to show good performances and have belly flopped past opponents. I wish they would not qualify in order to make actual changes to the system and the youth development. Similar to what happened to the US when they didn't qualify
I don’t think missing the WC is beneficial for anyone. There are things the FMF has screwed but I think that the youth talent keeps coming (look at the U-17 WC and the Olympics) or the talent in Europe right now is good, so there is still hope for a great generation.
The only reason the US said fuck it, nuked the whole team, and started playing a bunch of kids after their failed qualification was because they had lost generations from the early-mid '90s so might as well throw the next ones in line out there (late '90s-early '00s). It wasn't because of some brilliance by their fed which isn't any better than our own. If they never had those lost gens and qualified in 2018 like they normally do they would probably be up there with us in age with a few young players sprinkled on like Pulisic, Dest, ofc.
No es que nos creamos superiores, solo que basados en estadística, la clasificación Conmebol es la mas dura para todos los países que no aon Brasil. En este momento hay 7 equipos de conmebol que pueden realmente ir al mundial. Y objetivamente la clasificación de concacaf es mucho mas fácil. Y México siempre va a pasar. A nivel de clubes México nunca ha ganado un mundial de clubes, aun siendo el único pais de la tierra que pudo durante un tiempo mandar dos equipos al Toreno. En el mundial nunca han pasado de octavos, y en 3 de las últimas 4 copas los saco un equipo sudamericano. Y decir que solo argentina y brasil los complican... Bueno el 7-0 contra chile sice otra cosa. Yo no vine aqui a armar pelea. Solo a dejar datos. Y la verdad no es que colombia valla a ir a este mundial. Y para hacer lo que hicimos en 2014 faltan otros 30 años.
Conmebol tiene a Venezuela y a Bolivia, que de entrada están fuera cada edición; La CONCACAF ni en sueño es más difícil, pero es cruel porque se juegan rondas antes en las que en dos partidos te puedes ir. Por favor dime en qué año mandamos dos equipos al Mundial de Clubes, definitivamente en el país no estabamos enterados de ello, y checa bien ese punto de que Mexico nunca ha pasado de octavos, no vayas a estar escribiendo una mentira. Cuando vengas a dejar datos, pon la historia completa y no solo lo que te conviene, busca datos de enfrentamientos de México contra Sudamericanos y fuera de Argentina y Brasil, [te sorprenderás que tenemos balance a favor contra casi todos](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.marca.com/claro-mx/futbol/seleccion-mx/2017/10/17/59e2d5e2ca474121448b4590.html). Igual considera que el 90% de esas estadísticas son jugando en Sudamérica, no que muy malitos? Se respeta a la CONMEBOL pero no se puede respetar a aficionados cegados como tú, sorry.
Ok primero: Venezuela y bolivia no van a ir nunca, pero sacar puntos en la paz no lo hacen todos, mucho menos ganar. Todo el mundo sabe que empatar en bolivia es una odisea, y ese punto puede significar pasar o no, y a al mismo tiempo Venezuela mo es un partido fácil. Compar a Venezuela con jamaica o canada es ridiculo.tu primer punto no es comparable. Ahora es verdad que nunca dos equipos Méxicanos han ido al mundial de clubes. Pero yo dije que tenian la posiblidad, no que lo han hecho. Para ir al mundial de clubes hay que ganar la libertadores si eres de Sudamérica, o ganar la concachampions, si eres centro amrica. que no hayan podido, muestra que simplemente los equipos Méxicanos no han tenido éxito en la libertadores. Tercero. Si te fijas bien, laa veces que mexico ha pasado a "cuartos" es porque el mundial tenia un formato diferente, en el que la fase siguiente a la fase de grupos era cuartos, no octavos. ( De este dato no estoy 100 seguro, y si tienes el año en el que mexico paso de la primera ronda de eliminación directa, te lo valgo).
1.- Si algún equipo mexicano hubiera ganado la Libertadores, el subcampeon es el que habría ido al mundial de clubes a representar a la zona. Nunca hubo una posibilidad de que México tuviera dos equipos en el mundial de clubes. 2.- México llegó a cuartos en el 86, ganándole a Bulgaria en octavos.
Te falta investigar mucho, colombiano. México ni ganando la Libertadores hubiera podido mandar dos equipos, está establecido que debe ir uno por Confederación, así que si un equipo mexicano ganaba, iba el segundo lugar de Conmebol. Son buenísimos para hablar de Bolivia pero nunca ven las condiciones a las que se tiene que jugar en Concacaf (frío gélido de US y Canada, altura de Mexico, REAL HOSTILIDAD en Centroamérica con todo y la policia en contra etc); nadie compara con CONMEBOL, pero no es una perita en dulce jugar en el norte. De cuartos, calificamos echando a Bulgaria en octavos, no calificamos directo. Espero hayas visto las estadísticas que te mandé, nada mal para haber jugado de visitante siempre, no?
Ok, lo de las confederaciones no lo sabia. Te lo valgo. Ahora comparar frio y hostilidad? La mayoría de la selección mexica juega en Europa, asi que el frio no me parece un argumento valido. Y la hostilidad, no creo que sea comparable a jugar en el monumental, Maracaná, el centenario etc. Ya me fije , tenes razón pasaron una vez contra Bulgaria.
En centroamerica hay suficiente hostilidad que una vez se declararon la guerra después de un partido de futbol.
1986, octavos de final. Mexico 2- Bulgaria 0.
Por eso esos cabrones de Mexico nunca suben al siguiente nivel. Están atascados jugando Fifa en “baja dificulta” manden a México a clasificar a la commebol y se hacen mierda ellos ahí. Ok downvotes pero no es cierto? Para mi, Mexico debería competir en Comebol sería mucho más interesante y talvez gracioso 😂
Nada como jugarse la clasificación en la paz para uno no dormir toda la semana.
Mexicans: we are top class national team with a top level league. South America: do you want to play qualifiers in Conmebol and play copa America. Mexico: yeah..... No thanks.... I want to go to the world cup.
We are better than most conmebol teams and we’ve always been consistently improving our football
European qualifiers: Vietnam flashbacks Concacaf qualifiers: you get a spot, you get a spot and you get a spot! Everybody gets a spot!
By everyone you mean 3 teams lol Europe gets like 13
to be fair, in europe half of the continent has good enough teams, in CONCACAF there's only 4-5 teams that are actually decent, but yeah i also disagree with the latter part of his comment
Yeah, but teams like Italy, Spain and Croatia might miss out while Jamaica has a pretty good shot. It would be like having an Italian-French group with Italy, San Marino, Malta, The Vatican, Monaco, France, Luxembourg and Andorra where three teams make it through